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Episode 563 - 8/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 563 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on everyone? Happy Monday a new week begins
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guys and it is officially NFL pre season week know we had the
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Hall of Fame game. I'm still still butt hurt over
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that final play. They're holding a nice looking
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Cardinals plus 1 1/2 ticket only to see the Panthers and their
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third string quarterback go right down the field and kill us
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at the at the very end final play of the game.
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So that wasn't fun, but the beauty of the NFL pre season is
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that now that it's here and again, it used to be 4 weeks,
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it's now three weeks. We have opportunities to make
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information based bets. So bets not totally ignoring,
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you know, the betting market line movement splits, all things
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we look at, but really looking out for information that tells
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us where an edge might lie. So we're talking about
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information information based bets and I have a a full section
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on my book, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
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Hint. If you haven't bought it yet,
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now is a great time to buy it as the NFL season is pretty much
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upon us. I have a full section on how to
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bet the preseason, but info based bets, they revolve around
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Twitter and following beat reporters and really listening
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to what Schefter and all the coaches are saying because they
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they will. There will come times,
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especially in the preseason, really only in the preseason
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where the coaches will come out and tell you exactly what
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they're doing. So Andy Reid might come out and
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say, yeah, we're not playing any of our starters.
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Or he might come out and say, yeah, Mahomes and the guys
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they're going to play the first quarter again, they'll never
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tell you this during the regular season because they don't want
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to give up an inch, any kind of competitive advantage.
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But of course, pre season doesn't matter if they win or
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lose these games. All that matters is installing
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your offense, getting players acclimated, you know, kind of
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checking out what kind of guys you got, who you want to keep,
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who, you know, roster bubbles, stuff like that.
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And because of that, you know, a lot of teams aren't really
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concerned about winning. They're concerned about, you
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know, getting getting snaps in and getting through these games
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uninjured. So info base bets can be very,
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very beneficial. The key, though, is once this
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info breaks and, you know, Schefter says, oh, you know, all
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the Detroit Lions starters are going to play the first half.
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The Lions move based on this information.
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So we got to be quick about it. But I am looking at coming up
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here on Thursday, six games overall and a couple that just
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jumped out to me, Detroit, Cincinnati.
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This one was a huge line move towards Cincinnati since he
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opened like -3 1/2. They're up to -6 1/2 - 7.
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Why? Because they're going to play
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their guys. Detroit's going to pretty much
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sit everybody. Another game that jumped out to
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me was Tennessee and San Francisco.
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We opened this game. Some books were.
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Even a short favorite, San Francisco like -2 1/2.
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Now it's flipped to Tennessee -2 1/2.
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So again, it doesn't take a genius to know that when these
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lines are moving pre season, it's almost always because info
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has come out that one team is sitting there guys, the other
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team is playing there guys. So it's up to us to hopefully
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combine the market with the splits with these info based
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bets. And then also, you know, when
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I'm betting a lot of NFL games, 99% of my bets, they're going to
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be full game bets because I'm looking at full game odds.
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All the information we're deciphering has to do with bets
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coming in for the full game. Doesn't mean that there aren't
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great first half first quarter opportunities, live betting, of
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course, but pre season. Let us some first half bets
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because if we know that this team is going to play their guys
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for the first half, they might be leading, you know, 21 to 3 at
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halftime. But then the scrubs come in,
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they get rolled and lose 2827. So I think first half bets also
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have a place here. So just want to get people
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thinking about betting pre season.
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Probably gonna have a couple bets here for Thursday coming up
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on Friday. They are, there's three games
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and then coming up on Saturday there are seven games and then
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pretty much we're going to have games quite a bit here going
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through the preseason. Also quarterback battles, that's
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important too. If you have a couple guys
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battling it out, you know that's important because probably going
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to try to play well and win the job.
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So I could factor in as well, but stay tuned for more NFL
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presets and bats. Again, just some early line
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moves, line going to Cincy, line going to Tennessee because
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they're playing their guys, their opponents are sitting
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there, guys. With that being said, going to
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kick off a new week here, guys trying to start our week off on
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a winning note, getting right back to Major League Baseball.
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So I have a three pack of sweats lined up for you.
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We're going to talk about them all.
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Two of them are dog bets. 1 is a very short favorite.
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So when we're like laying -110 getting plus 110, anywhere in
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between. And we always talk about going 2
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and 1. Eke out a winning night.
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Well, for winning, like, you know, again, I'll never complain
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about a winning night, but if we're winning two and one,
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winning two out of three bets, but there's a -170 and a -, 140,
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you know, we might only make, you know, .68 units .48 units,
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.39, you know what I mean? Like a, a small amount.
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But we can go 2:00 and 1:00 tonight with a lot of these, you
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know, between plus 110 and -110 games that could be a nice
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almost full unit night. So it means a little more when
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you're laying shorter numbers also means, you know, it's not
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quite as easy because they're more coin flip games, but
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they're sharp with good sharp mush edges and rhythm.
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Recommendations on all three games.
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Without further ado, let's waste no more time.
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Talk about our 3 plays for tonight.
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So first bit on the board, I want to look at a 7:45 PM
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Eastern Time. First pitch in the National
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League where the Philadelphia Phillies are visiting the Saint
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Louis Cardinals. Now Phillies come in 63 and 56.
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Did just drop two or three against the Blue Jays, avoided
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the sweep, however, lost the first two.
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Won the series finale yesterday 7 to 6 in extra innings as a big
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-230 home favorite. So it made people sweat.
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Who laid the chalk there. But then you look at the Cards,
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who are 59 and 59500 team, they just took two or three against
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the Rockies. They won yesterday's series
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finale 7 to 4 as a -160 home favorite.
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So tonight's series opener Phillies are going to go with
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the ready Andrew Painter. He's one and eight with a 6.48
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ERA. Cardinals, meanwhile, going with
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the fellow righty Hunter Dobbins.
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He's two and two with a 3.6 O ERA.
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What do we see across the market?
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Well, this game open Philly around a pretty short -115 road
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favorite Saint Louis around a -, 1 O 5 home dog.
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And the public says Philly all day again, Philly's big, you
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know, big market team picked up Luisa rise there in the World
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Series few years ago. Better record.
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Saint Louis kind of a rebuilding year, even though they're
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actually pretty good 500 team. I think that one of the lower
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wind totals going into this year.
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But public says -115 Philly all day, let's go Phil's.
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So 71% of money line bets at DK are running as fast as they can
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to the book to late with Philadelphia.
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But here's what's interesting to me.
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Philly opens -115 they're pretty much still -115 I mean, some
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books did get up to around -120 but really hasn't moved off of,
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you know, about $0.05 or less from the opener.
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And that signals to me a bit of a line freeze because if you're
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getting 71% of bets and you're getting a big, big load of
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action in your in your favor, I would expect -115 gets up to
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-125 -, 130. The fact that this line hasn't
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really moved just barely a few inches, even though you're
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getting such heavy betting on Philly and one of the most
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popular games of the night, again, signals a bit of a line
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freeze when you have heavy betting one side, but the line
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really doesn't move much. For the validation of a Saint
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Louis play here, I'm going Cardinals because of this line
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freeze. They're very contrarian, but
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they have great bet splits. If you look at DK, Cardinals are
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only getting 29% of money line bets, but 76% of money line
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dollars. Then you go over to Circa in
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Vegas, 78% of bets, 96% of dollars.
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So DK you're only getting, you know, one out of three bets.
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But it's over at Circa. Big big wave of smart money
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hammering St. Louis, which is probably keeping
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this line close to the opener. Cardinals would have some
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correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game.
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Total in this game is 9, so the more expected run scored, more
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variants, more upset opportunities.
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I do have a system here, home dog off a win who failed to make
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the postseason the previous year.
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That's a 48% system on a dog, but it is a almost 3% ROI
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because of the plus money payouts.
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Phillies, meanwhile, kind of a play for me to just fade
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Painter. He was terrible.
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He went to the minors. He's been a little bit better
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since he got back, but he's made 16 starts this year.
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The Phillies are three and 13. So I want to fade Painter again.
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If you're Lane A minus number with Painter, all the power to
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you. But I like Cardinals in this
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spot as a line freeze. Contrarian little bits, higher
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dollars play. And meanwhile, Hunter Dobbins
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used to be a Red Sox farmhand. I think he was either in the
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sunny Gray or the Contreras steel.
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But he's only given up 3 earned runs or less in seven of his
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last of his 7, seven of his eight starts this year,
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actually. So he's pitched pretty well.
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So a little bit of a line freeze.
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Also have a 6% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel
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on the Cardinals and then you pop open rhythm.
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I have two rhythm recommendations lighting up on
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the Cardinals, one of which is a green star smart signal
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recommendation. So one of the most lopsided
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games of the night. Everybody's on Philly, but this
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line is short and it really hasn't moved much.
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So I'm going to follow the sharp mush edge of the rhythm
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recommendations. I jumped on the Cardinals.
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I got plus 1/10 at Bally Bet. I believe that was a small
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boost, but you can still get around plus one O 5 get a little
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bit of plus money. Hopefully Cardinals can get a
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win at home at Busch Stadium and then hopefully they'll be tarps
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off and we'll be shotgun and some Bush lights.
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So let's go Kards next one for you.
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Couple late night games. 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
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Let's go out West where the LA Angels are hosting the Texas
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Rangers now. Rangers come in 59 and 59 on the
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year. Just took two or three against
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the O's. Couldn't complete the sweep
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though. They lost that series finale
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4:50 yesterday as a -, 125 home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Angels, one of the worst teams in baseball, 45 and
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73, just dropped two or three against the Marlins.
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Got rolled 12 to 3 yesterday as a + 135 road dog.
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So tonight's series opener, Rangers are going with the lefty
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Mackenzie Gore. He is 6 and nine with a 4.55
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ERA. Angels are going with the fellow
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lefty Reed Detmer's. He's three and eight with a 4.12
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ERA now. What have we seen across the
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market? Will this game open Texas around
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a -. 125 road favorite LA around a + 105 home dog.
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And the public once again is saying Rangers all day short
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number, let's go Texas. So 75% of money line bets at DK
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are laying the chalk short chalk with the Rangers.
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However, this is where it gets interesting.
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Even though 75% of bets are on the Rangers, Rangers have not
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gotten steamed up -125 to -130 -, 140.
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The lines going the other way. This line has really fallen away
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from Texas. Texas has gone from -120 down to
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-115. I'm even seeing some shops get
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closer to like even a pick em at this point.
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That tells us we have a classic RLM play reverse line move when
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the betting line goes away from the popular side toward the
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unpopular side. So even though no one wants to
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play LA tonight, they've gone from what plus one O 5 to now
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plus 100. I'm even seeing some shops like
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-1 O 2. So we look at the DK splits,
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only 25% of bets, but 81% of dollars are on the Angels.
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Look at Circa, 25% of bets, 52% of dollars on the Angels.
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So both DK and Circa have some really good low bets, higher
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dollar splits in favor of the Angels.
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Angels would be a classic divisional dog.
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So built in familiarity levels, the playing field benefits the
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team getting some plus money. We also have a system play here,
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short home dogs plus 120 or less off a loss receiving line
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movement in their favor. Angels would match.
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Those teams are one O 4 and 151 percent, 4% ROI since 2025.
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Mackenzie Gore at home in this great state of Texas 3.27 ERA,
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but on the road 5.79. I want to fade him.
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Meanwhile, Detmer's, it looked like at the deadline he was
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getting dealt possibly to the Cubs, but they kept him and he's
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pitched pretty well recently. He's allowed two earned runs or
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less in three of his last four starts.
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And oh, by the way, even though the Rangers have the better
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record, Angels are four and two against the Rangers this year.
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So everyone and their mothers on the Rangers, but this line is
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dropping toward the Angels. Also popped open Juice Reel,
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noticed a 31%, pretty big, 31% sharp mush edge on the LA
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Angels. And then I popped open rhythm.
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All three of my rhythm models are on the Angels and one of
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them is a Green Star smart signal.
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So I know, I know Angels are a terrible team.
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If we bet on them and they lose, it's it's shame on us.
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But it's a very sharp play here. So I'm going to take a shot on
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the Angels. I got them plus one O 4 at
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Caesar's. Looks like some shops, a lot of
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them are getting down around plus 100.
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Try to get as much plus money as you can.
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Let's go Halos last bite of the night.
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Let's go out West to San Diego, not too far from the Angels and
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see the San Diego Padres hosting the Milwaukee Brewers 9:40 PM
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Eastern Time. Now, the Brew Crew 74 and 44 on
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the year, just took two or three against the Twins.
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One yesterday's series finale, 4 to 3 and extras as a big -260
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home favorite mean all the pods 62 and 57.
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They just took two or three against the Astros, one
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yesterday's series finale, 7 to 2 as a -115 home favorite
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pitching matchup for tonight. Brewers going with the ready
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Logan Henderson, he's six and one with a 2.7 OERA pods.
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Meanwhile, going with the ready Casey Mize, where they picked up
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at the deadline from the Tigers, he's four and seven with a 3.4 O
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ERA. What do we see across the
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market? Well, this game opened at
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basically a pick em. A lot of books around -110 both
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sides, some books I saw maybe like -115 San Diego, but is
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mostly about a pick em opener. And we'll always talk about pick
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em opener. Where does the line move?
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Does it not move at all because wise guys who set their own
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numbers have the respect to the books?
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They have a pick em, too. So there's no edge.
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There's no reason to bet the game.
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Or do we see a line move because wise guys say, yeah, you know,
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Vegas is opening a pick em. The global betting market is a
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pick em. But we got this team, you know
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-120 therefore, they're going to hit it because they have an
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edge. Well, it looks like the ladder
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here because we've seen this line move up toward the beer
14:47
makers. Let's go brew Crew.
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I'm on the Brewers tonight, guys.
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I'll walk you up from a -, 110 road pick em to now a -, 110 or
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sorry, a -, 115 road favorite. And now I'm seeing some shops
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around -120 so all movement liability has been toward the
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Brewers. Now the Brewers have some good
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splits at DK, 72% bets, 90% dollars, At Circa, 84% bets, 94%
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dollars. So we're combining low bets,
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higher dollars, DK and Circa with the line moving toward
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Milwaukee. Milwaukee would be a non
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division favorite. So lack of familiarity typically
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benefiting quote UN quote the better team expected to win.
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We also have a non division Rd. favorite off a win receiving
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line movement. That system is 87 and 5263
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percent 7% ROI this year. Another system that we love to
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play when both teams are above 500.
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Take the team receiving line movement.
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The team at the market is is leaning toward that system is
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166 and one O 7 61 percent 11% ROI this year.
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Milwaukee will also have some correlative betting value
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favorite low total. We saw this total fall at some
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shops 7 1/2 down to seven. So the lines moving toward
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Milwaukee and the total is dropping.
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Hopefully that means like a you know, 3 to 1 Milwaukee win a few
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amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from quote
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UN quote that better team that's favored Brewers bats are better.
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Knock on wood. Let's hope it shows up tonight.
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They are hitting 253, 337 on base, 585 run scored.
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Padres only hitting two. 37313 on base, 504 run scored.
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Now Henderson's last eight starts, Milwaukee is 8 and O.
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Let's make that 9 and O. He's giving up two earned runs
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or less and nine of his 10 starts this year.
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Meanwhile, Casey Mize, he's making his second start since
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being picked up at the deadline and in his debut he faced the
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Diamondbacks and got lit up. Gave up eight earned runs and
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3.1 innings pitched. Lost 3:50.
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So let's hope that Milwaukee can get to Mize here tonight.
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So we have the pick em opener, but lines move to Milwaukee,
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better splits, system matches, bats.
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Hopefully Henderson greater than Mize.
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Oh, by the way, 33% sharp mush edge on the Brew Crew from our
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friends at Juice Reel. And I have one rhythm
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recommendation telling me to take the Brewers as well.
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So add a lot up here guys. Cardinals plus money, Angels
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plus money. Brewers very short favorite.
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Let's try to get 2 out of 3 eke out a winning day to start the
17:14
week. So that about does it for
17:16
episode 563 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
17:20
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
17:22
where we wrap things up. And now we start first by saying
17:25
thank you. Thank you for listening.
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Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for taking the time
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out of your busy lives to, you know, spend 2025 minutes.
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Listen to some sharp breakdowns means the world to me.
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It's even better when we cash together.
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But if you enjoy this pod, you value the insights you look
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Hope that's the case then please help me grow.
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Just give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
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We very much appreciate it. Next, if you enjoy the style of
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analysis. Not betting with our our heart,
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We'll sweat some MLB together tonight next to be downloaded
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Rhythm and Juice Reel. Yet my two favorite sports
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betting apps, Rhythm for their AI backed models and predictions
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for game bets and player props. Awesome with their their models
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coming here for football. That'll be right around the
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corner of course. And I've also been in touch with
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here soon, so just stay tuned. I would download Rhythm then go
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download Juice reel. Juice reel has so many great
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Go to the search box, type in ASG, you'll find my profile.
20:46
Boom, it'd be off and running. So download Rhythm, download
20:49
Juice Real, give them both a five star review in the App
20:51
Store. Next, do you have a live odds
20:55
page? If you don't have one, you
20:56
really do need one. I keep saying it because it's so
20:58
important, but if you want to be a successful sports better, you
21:02
got to be able to track the market in real time.
21:04
First I got to know what are all the games I can bet on today?
21:06
What sports are in season? I need every game in front of me
21:10
with the opening column showing, showing me the opening odds to
21:13
the right. All the current odds, all the
21:15
major sports books identify Steam Odds change, they get lit
21:18
up in red. You get your live lines
21:20
available to you. And of course you're shopping
21:22
for the best line, quickly finding out which book is giving
21:25
you the best number. So you should go about the game
21:26
there. But you can do all that with
21:29
odds logic. So if you ever want to give it a
21:30
shot, just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
21:36
That'll give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
21:39
month of service. So that about does it for
21:42
episode 563 of the ASG pod on a big Monday here guys getting
21:46
back into the swing of things before football takes over.
21:49
Cannot wait for that. I was actually working with a
21:52
wife because we have a a baby and we're trying to make her a
21:55
playroom downstairs and we're moving the the basically our
21:59
basement. It's a finished basement, moving
22:01
around the TV and moving around the, you know, the my lazy boy
22:05
chair and my sofa. And I'm just, we're setting it
22:08
up so that she can play on the ground.
22:10
But more importantly, selfishly for me, I got my my football
22:14
station set up for this this fall where the big TV in front
22:18
of me with my lazy boy, we rearranged it.
22:20
I'm excited. I'm excited for that.
22:23
But as always, guys want to say thank you for for tuning in and
22:28
of course let you know that whether it's at the Borgata in
22:31
Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
22:33
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
22:36
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield, or
22:39
the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of
22:41
Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Out in the desert where the true
22:45
grinders get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
22:47
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
22:49
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
22:51
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
22:53
When you cash a big ticket at Circo, hopefully you'll be
22:56
walking up to me showing me a couple winning tickets from
22:59
tonight. So as always, guys coming off a
23:01
winning weekend, losing weekend, hot streak, cold streak.
23:04
We're just grinding like we always are.
23:06
We just can't get too high when things are good or too low when
23:09
things are bad because we're never as hot as we think or as
23:11
good as we think whenever, when we're cash in every ticket,
23:14
whenever, as bad as we think when and we shouldn't be just
23:16
down in the dumps thinking bangs impossible.
23:18
When we're losing, there's ebbs and flows.
23:20
We can't control the outcome, but we can control the bets that
23:23
we make, making smart bets with our head and not our heart.
23:27
And of course, we're looking for games that fit our model against
23:29
the public, with the house, with the pros, Flatbat, avoid parlays
23:33
and get some CLV. If we can do that, and I'm
23:36
confident that we can, we're going to be successful sports
23:38
bettors. So I hope everyone had a great
23:40
weekend. Let's see if we can start off
23:42
the week on a winning note tonight, guys.
23:43
And I'll be right back at it tomorrow.
23:45
That'll be a big Tuesday. Episode 564 of the All Systems
23:49
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:53
Good luck everybody, and let's get a couple winners on the
23:55
diamond to mark.