Latest / Patriots Catch-22 / Patriots Catch-22 10/21: Bears Preview, Keys to the Game, Injury Updates
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All right, we're back now. All right, we're good? I
- 0:06Speaker 1: think we're good now. All right, sorry about that. Some
- 0:08Speaker 1: technical difficulties on our end, but we're up and running now.
- 0:11Speaker 1: I was just saying, Alex, that it feels weird that
- 0:14Speaker 1: there's no day off in between shows. It feels weird
- 0:17Speaker 1: that they're playing on a Thursday night. It feels weird
- 0:20Speaker 1: that you're unfortunately still at home. So this is all
- 0:23Speaker 1: a little bit, you know, bizarro land here, but I'm
- 0:27Speaker 1: really excited to talk about this game. I'm calling it
- 0:30Speaker 1: the Catch-22 Bowl because we finally get to see Ben
- 0:33Speaker 1: Johnson and Mike Vrabel go up against each other. I
- 0:37Speaker 1: am a little disappointed that it's on a Thursday night
- 0:39Speaker 1: because I wish we had a little bit more time
- 0:41Speaker 1: to really sink our teeth into this matchup and not
- 0:44Speaker 1: be so rushed or so crammed on the short week.
- 0:47Speaker 2: And by the way, that coaches had an opportunity to
- 0:49Speaker 2: do that as well.
- 0:50Speaker 1: Yes, but this is it. This is a big matchup.
- 0:54Speaker 1: I think this is one of the games of the
- 0:56Speaker 1: year on the calendar for the Patriots. facing the bears,
- 1:00Speaker 1: Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams in an alternate NFL universe. These
- 1:06Speaker 1: coach and quarterback could be flipped in this game very easily.
- 1:10Speaker 1: Like Caleb Williams could have ended up a Patriot. Ben
- 1:13Speaker 1: Johnson could have ended up the Patriots head coach. So
- 1:16Speaker 1: we're kind of seeing mirror images of each other as
- 1:19Speaker 1: two quarterbacks drafted in the same class, two coaches hired
- 1:23Speaker 1: in the same cycle, two successful coaches so far. Slight
- 1:27Speaker 1: edge to you, though, in this argument so far with
- 1:30Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel, 18-5, Ben Johnson, 15-8, obviously a Super Bowl
- 1:35Speaker 1: appearance for Mike Vrabel. But I'm excited to talk about
- 1:38Speaker 1: this one. This is kind of our game here. It's
- 1:41Speaker 1: the Catch-22 Bowl. That's what I'm calling it.
- 1:43Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like, I don't think this game solves it.
- 1:46Speaker 3: I really don't want to see if the Bears win.
- 1:48Speaker 3: A bunch of people say, see, they should have hired
- 1:50Speaker 3: Ben Johnson. Like, Vrabel's been to a Super Bowl.
- 1:52Speaker 2: That's the scoreboard.
- 1:53Speaker 1: And it's a short week, yeah.
- 1:55Speaker 3: And it's a short week. But it'll be fun to watch.
- 1:57Speaker 3: And the more I look at what Ben Johnson's done,
- 1:59Speaker 3: especially this year, you know, there's some differences, I think,
- 2:02Speaker 3: from last year. And some of it's maybe necessitated by
- 2:06Speaker 3: not having Caleb Williams or... not having had Caleb Williams
- 2:11Speaker 3: as much as they did. Like that's kind of what's
- 2:13Speaker 3: hard about studying this Bears team. You mentioned the short week.
- 2:15Speaker 3: It's also like, well, okay, what are some of these
- 2:19Speaker 3: new wrinkles that they're doing because it's.
- 2:22Speaker 2: A new wrinkle?
- 2:23Speaker 3: And are there certain trends here that they are things
- 2:27Speaker 3: they did because they had a backup quarterback and maybe
- 2:30Speaker 3: we're not going to see them. So that, that also
- 2:32Speaker 3: kind of at least studying it, like the game is
- 2:33Speaker 3: going to be the game, obviously going into it.
- 2:35Speaker 2: It's, it's a weird wrinkle, but there is some stuff
- 2:37Speaker 2: Ben Johnson's doing.
- 2:39Speaker 3: That I really like, that I don't think is characteristic
- 2:42Speaker 3: for that kind of coach, if you want to put
- 2:44Speaker 3: it that way. Mainly how he's managing game flow. First
- 2:50Speaker 3: of all, the fact that he is managing game flow
- 2:53Speaker 3: and not treating every individual play as.
- 2:55Speaker 2: Its own separate entity. But some other things too, like
- 2:58Speaker 2: it's been, the way.
- 2:59Speaker 3: They handled not having Caleb Williams, I mean, they did
- 3:01Speaker 3: an outstanding job with that. Ben Johnson, the staff, the
- 3:04Speaker 3: other players. So Not as relevant to this game, but
- 3:09Speaker 3: I think worth giving credit.
- 3:10Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously Caleb played last week against the Falcons, but
- 3:14Speaker 1: even the game before that was in a monsoon against
- 3:17Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings where neither team could move the ball
- 3:20Speaker 1: because of the conditions. So it's been a little bit wonky.
- 3:25Speaker 1: Going back all the way to week one against Carolina
- 3:27Speaker 1: feels a little bit weird, but that was a huge
- 3:29Speaker 1: offensive performance for Chicago and sort of what their offense
- 3:32Speaker 1: looks like. Uh, when it's at its peak, uh, you
- 3:36Speaker 1: mentioned a lot of things about the, the way that
- 3:38Speaker 1: Ben Johnson calls the game and manages the game. I
- 3:40Speaker 1: want to get to all that stuff. Uh, but before
- 3:42Speaker 1: we really start to dig into the bears and into
- 3:45Speaker 1: this matchup, I do want to talk about the Patriots
- 3:48Speaker 1: injury situation last And just where things stand as of
- 3:51Speaker 1: 10 0 6 AM on Wednesday morning. So I thought
- 3:55Speaker 1: that yesterday's injury report and our very limited sample size
- 4:00Speaker 1: of the walkthrough at practice yesterday was maybe more encouraging
- 4:05Speaker 1: than I initially thought coming out of the game on Sunday.
- 4:10Speaker 1: You're going to be down your two guards, right? Elijah
- 4:12Speaker 1: Vera Tucker and Ben Brown, or as Mike Rabel said,
- 4:16Speaker 1: probably not, you know, unlikely to play. in this game
- 4:19Speaker 1: on Thursday night, we know that they placed Romeo Dobbs
- 4:21Speaker 1: on injured reserve. Uh, but Carlton Davis was out there
- 4:24Speaker 1: and I was just a walkthrough. Uh, so I, I
- 4:27Speaker 1: don't know how much we look into that. Morgan Moses
- 4:29Speaker 1: was also out there. again, in just a walkthrough setting.
- 4:33Speaker 1: But as much as you're losing those guards is big
- 4:37Speaker 1: and Dobbs is a loss. They're going to have A.J. Brown.
- 4:40Speaker 1: They're going to have potentially Carlton Davis back. Morgan Moses
- 4:44Speaker 1: is going to potentially give it a go in this
- 4:46Speaker 1: game as well. So maybe not the sky is falling
- 4:50Speaker 1: or quite as like alarming as the injuries might have
- 4:53Speaker 1: been we thought maybe coming out of the game on
- 4:56Speaker 1: Sunday where they might be down three linemen. It might
- 4:59Speaker 1: not be all three of those guys that are missing
- 5:01Speaker 1: tomorrow night. Yeah.
- 5:04Speaker 3: Hey, you know, it's, I've not talked to players about
- 5:08Speaker 3: this where it's tough because you might get hurt in
- 5:09Speaker 3: a game on Sunday. You can't play on Thursday, but
- 5:13Speaker 3: if the game was on a Sunday, you could probably
- 5:15Speaker 3: go right. Like there's a reason these weeks are structured.
- 5:18Speaker 3: Think about you play on Sunday. You usually don't even
- 5:20Speaker 3: practice until Wednesday. You have two, essentially full days of
- 5:25Speaker 3: recovery in there before you get back out on the field.
- 5:27Speaker 3: Now you're playing the next day. So it's just, it's,
- 5:30Speaker 3: it's a lot to manage, but if they could have
- 5:33Speaker 3: Morgan Moses, that would, that.
- 5:34Speaker 2: Would be big.
- 5:35Speaker 4: Yep.
- 5:36Speaker 1: So I want to discuss the offensive line. Cause that's
- 5:38Speaker 1: really where the, the biggest sort of management here for
- 5:43Speaker 1: Vrabel and the staff are going to have to come
- 5:44Speaker 1: in in terms of what you do with this offensive line.
- 5:48Speaker 1: I think there are other positions, you know, you lose
- 5:50Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs, but you're getting AJ Brown back and like
- 5:53Speaker 1: that sort of thing. Like, I think that they're going
- 5:55Speaker 1: to be okay. terms of the skill positions. The offensive
- 5:59Speaker 1: line is those going to be down both their starting guards,
- 6:02Speaker 1: at least the guards that they have healthy right now.
- 6:04Speaker 1: And Ben Brown, you know, obviously on when he was
- 6:06Speaker 1: also out. So this is, you know, you're going down
- 6:10Speaker 1: pretty far down the rabbit hole here. But I think
- 6:13Speaker 1: the the two different options here on the offensive line,
- 6:17Speaker 1: there's the most likely, which I think is what's going
- 6:19Speaker 1: to end up happening here, Alex, which is just starting
- 6:23Speaker 1: this game with the line that finished the game last week.
- 6:27Speaker 1: So that would be from left to right Campbell Rouse,
- 6:29Speaker 1: Wilson prior, and whether Moses is healthy or Lomo at
- 6:34Speaker 1: right tackle.
- 6:35Speaker 5: Right.
- 6:35Speaker 1: So I think that that's probably, uh, you know, where
- 6:38Speaker 1: you start there. You know how I feel about this.
- 6:41Speaker 1: We've talked a little bit about this off the air.
- 6:44Speaker 1: That is the most likely five. That's what I expect
- 6:46Speaker 1: to happen. My five, though, I want to get Caleb
- 6:50Speaker 1: Lomu in the starting lineup somewhere. Now, maybe it's just
- 6:53Speaker 1: that right tackle, right? Like maybe he just plays for
- 6:55Speaker 1: Morgan Moses at right tackle. But even if Morgan Moses
- 6:59Speaker 1: is healthy, I personally would not rule out Lomu playing guard.
- 7:05Speaker 1: And I know that you feel differently about this. And
- 7:08Speaker 1: I think they probably do, too, based off of what
- 7:10Speaker 1: Walter Rouse said yesterday. But that's just sort of how
- 7:13Speaker 1: I feel about it. How do you view this offensive
- 7:15Speaker 1: line situation?
- 7:19Speaker 2: They did last week. I also wouldn't rush Moses back.
- 7:22Speaker 2: And look, he's the constant professional. He wants to play. Yeah,
- 7:26Speaker 2: he he's good.
- 7:27Speaker 3: If he can be out there, he's going to be
- 7:29Speaker 3: out there and credit to him for it. This is
- 7:31Speaker 3: one where maybe. And again, I don't know the exact medicals,
- 7:35Speaker 3: but I do know he's looked banged up the past
- 7:39Speaker 3: few weeks. This wasn't just last week. I wonder if
- 7:42Speaker 3: you just tell him, hey, it's a short week. Like,
- 7:45Speaker 3: the kid's playing well. Now, he probably takes as a
- 7:48Speaker 3: threat to his job.
- 7:49Speaker 6: Right.
- 7:49Speaker 3: So it's all the more reason for him to be
- 7:50Speaker 3: out there. But I do wonder if it would just
- 7:52Speaker 3: help him to stay off his feet for a week.
- 7:55Speaker 3: And if you get a better version of him down
- 7:57Speaker 3: the line because of it. You know, my whole thing
- 8:00Speaker 3: with Loma went guard. is he's going to be a
- 8:03Speaker 3: right tackle. It looked like he needed more time to
- 8:06Speaker 3: develop there. Don't have him spend time in another position
- 8:09Speaker 3: when he needs the reps to tackle. Well, two things
- 8:13Speaker 3: are different here. If you're telling me it's just for
- 8:15Speaker 3: a week, all right, have him focus a guard for
- 8:17Speaker 3: a week and then he can get back to tackle.
- 8:19Speaker 3: He also looks a lot further along at tackle than
- 8:22Speaker 3: he did last time we saw him. So, okay, maybe
- 8:26Speaker 3: there is some more flexibility. Maybe he can't afford to
- 8:28Speaker 3: take that time and go over there. So, If there
- 8:31Speaker 3: were a week to do it, this would probably be it.
- 8:34Speaker 3: You know, not as I don't want him playing guard
- 8:37Speaker 3: full time. So if Ben Brown and I don't know
- 8:42Speaker 3: the nature of the injuries, Ben Brown's obviously looked a
- 8:44Speaker 3: lot more severe. Like, I'm not saying, all right, Ben Brown.
- 8:47Speaker 3: All right, Caleb, you're our starting right guard for the
- 8:51Speaker 3: next two months. Like, no, no, he still needs to
- 8:54Speaker 3: have a long term plan at tackle. If it's a
- 8:57Speaker 3: short week, we don't have enough linemen. For these two
- 9:00Speaker 3: practices in a game, you're going to focus a guard,
- 9:03Speaker 3: and then it's back to tackle next week.
- 9:05Speaker 2: Like, if that's what it is, yeah, okay.
- 9:09Speaker 3: I mean, let me see how it looks. We haven't
- 9:12Speaker 3: seen him at guard. If he goes out there to
- 9:13Speaker 3: practice and sucks at it, then obviously don't do it.
- 9:16Speaker 3: But this is probably the scenario where it does make
- 9:20Speaker 3: some sense to me to at least try it. Although,
- 9:22Speaker 3: like you said, maybe it ultimately doesn't happen. Because the
- 9:25Speaker 3: other thing is, If Morgan Moses is playing hurt and
- 9:29Speaker 3: there's a chance he's not going to finish the game,
- 9:32Speaker 3: I don't want him prepping for two positions. That's high-level
- 9:36Speaker 3: stuff that you don't want to ask a rookie to do.
- 9:39Speaker 3: To me, if he's playing guard, he's playing guard. period,
- 9:43Speaker 3: full stop. And if Morgan Moses gets hurt again, you're
- 9:46Speaker 3: either activating Marcus Bryant or you're going to Demetrius crown
- 9:49Speaker 3: over like that, that has to be the plan there.
- 9:51Speaker 2: So that could complicate it too.
- 9:53Speaker 3: And that it's all right, well, we need you to
- 9:55Speaker 3: stay a tackle because we don't know if Morgan Moses
- 9:57Speaker 3: can finish the game.
- 9:58Speaker 1: So that last point that you made as my only
- 10:00Speaker 1: hesitation with this whole thing is that if you know...
- 10:05Speaker 1: you need to build in a contingency plan because Morgan
- 10:08Speaker 1: Moses is going to try to give it a go,
- 10:10Speaker 1: but it might, might not be able to play the
- 10:12Speaker 1: whole game. Then I can hear the argument for let's
- 10:16Speaker 1: just leave Lomu on the bench to start the game
- 10:19Speaker 1: because we aren't sure if Morgan Moses is going to
- 10:21Speaker 1: be able to finish this thing out. However, there is
- 10:24Speaker 1: a part of me that is like, well, it would
- 10:27Speaker 1: be a shame that that Caleb Lomu is sitting on
- 10:30Speaker 1: the bench. Like he's too talented and they have too
- 10:33Speaker 1: many injuries on the offensive line. Now to have their
- 10:37Speaker 1: first round pick be the odd man out, right? Like
- 10:39Speaker 1: I understand positions and all that. I get it, but
- 10:42Speaker 1: it just feels to me like not only has he
- 10:45Speaker 1: looked great the last two weeks when he has played,
- 10:48Speaker 1: but just from a pure talent standpoint, your best five
- 10:51Speaker 1: right now, healthy five definitely involves Caleb Lomu in some way,
- 10:56Speaker 1: shape or form. whether it's at guard or right tackle.
- 10:59Speaker 1: So I I'm fully with you. That tackle is his
- 11:02Speaker 1: long-term position. That's where the develop needs to go. But
- 11:05Speaker 1: sometimes extenuating circumstances happen. Injuries pile up at one position,
- 11:10Speaker 1: like guard where now you're down three guards. If you
- 11:13Speaker 1: include on well, four, if you can include Greg Van Rowan,
- 11:15Speaker 1: right on when you have been wrote in on IR,
- 11:18Speaker 1: I very Tucker, Ben Brown hurt like that. at some point,
- 11:23Speaker 1: like you got to put out 48 guys, like Mike
- 11:25Speaker 1: Rabel says, right. So, you know, you, you gotta be
- 11:28Speaker 1: able to do that. Now this it's not ideal. It's
- 11:32Speaker 1: not ideal. It's just, to me, it's the best, the
- 11:35Speaker 1: best five is from left to right. Campbell, Lomu, Wilson, Pryor, Moses.
- 11:42Speaker 1: Those are your best five offensive linemen that could be
- 11:46Speaker 1: available for this game depending on Moses' status. No disrespect
- 11:51Speaker 1: meant to Walter Rouse, but I just feel like it's
- 11:54Speaker 1: kind of a shame to have Lomu sitting on the
- 11:57Speaker 1: bench when he's so talented and has looked so good
- 12:00Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks here.
- 12:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think it's different positions. And on top
- 12:04Speaker 3: of that, too, you could run 6-0 line. to get
- 12:08Speaker 3: him out there. Like that's an option too.
- 12:10Speaker 2: Yep.
- 12:10Speaker 1: That is an option. All right. Uh, let's get into
- 12:12Speaker 1: the bears. And I, like I said, on the offensive line,
- 12:15Speaker 1: just to put a bite, a bow on that, I
- 12:18Speaker 1: think rouse is going to start. Like, that's what it
- 12:20Speaker 1: sounds like. It's going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised
- 12:22Speaker 1: if Mike Rabel later today confirms that, uh, in his
- 12:25Speaker 1: press conference, I think it's going to be prior and
- 12:27Speaker 1: rouse at guard. So, uh, that that's going to, My
- 12:30Speaker 1: guess is, is, you know, let's just get through this
- 12:32Speaker 1: game is probably the idea. And let's not completely mess
- 12:36Speaker 1: with Lomu and all that kind of stuff. Anyways, let's
- 12:40Speaker 1: get into the bears a little bit. I I'm glad
- 12:43Speaker 1: that you said that you are also enjoying the Ben
- 12:49Speaker 1: Johnson experience and how he's managing games and how he's
- 12:52Speaker 1: playing games. I want to unpack that with you. I
- 12:55Speaker 1: also want to unpack a few myths about this Ben
- 12:58Speaker 1: Johnson offense and what they have been this year versus
- 13:02Speaker 1: what I think maybe those types of the offenses typically
- 13:07Speaker 1: get like sort of lumped together, you know, like the
- 13:10Speaker 1: Shanahan's the McVeigh's those offenses. I think a lot of
- 13:14Speaker 1: people think are all kind of the same. This one
- 13:16Speaker 1: is a little bit different and a little bit unique
- 13:18Speaker 1: to Ben Johnson. But what is it that you like
- 13:21Speaker 1: about the way he's approaching the game that you won't
- 13:23Speaker 1: like about my guy out in San Francisco and et cetera?
- 13:29Speaker 2: Sorry, you cut out. Say that again.
- 13:31Speaker 1: What is it that you like about Ben Johnson that
- 13:33Speaker 1: you don't like about my guy out in San Francisco?
- 13:37Speaker 3: Well, I mean, there's just less sample size. If Ben
- 13:40Speaker 3: Johnson blows multiple 10-point leads in Super Bowls, I'll reconsider.
- 13:44Speaker 3: But what he's doing so well, I.
- 13:50Speaker 3: My knock on a lot of those coaches has been, they,
- 13:52Speaker 3: they get so lost in their play sheet. They lose
- 13:55Speaker 3: sight of the bigger picture of the flow of the game.
- 13:58Speaker 3: And I think he's done a tremendous job of that,
- 14:00Speaker 3: especially like having a backup quarterback makes that, I don't
- 14:03Speaker 3: want to say harder, but it makes it more important
- 14:06Speaker 3: because you can't count on your offense, just going nuts.
- 14:09Speaker 3: And you look at the number of plays, the bears
- 14:15Speaker 3: have run the pace at which they've.
- 14:17Speaker 2: Run those plays. the share of those plays, which have.
- 14:20Speaker 3: Been run plays, he seems committed to wearing out the
- 14:25Speaker 3: opposing defense, which, and he actually puts stock in the
- 14:28Speaker 3: human element of stamina and physicality and all of that.
- 14:32Speaker 3: And especially when you have a backup quarterback, like that's
- 14:34Speaker 3: what you want to do. So I just really impressed
- 14:38Speaker 3: with the way he's approached the game management side of
- 14:40Speaker 3: it and actually trying to take it to the defense
- 14:43Speaker 3: and not just trying to come out there and run
- 14:45Speaker 3: his 20 favorite plays in a row, whatever. he's managing
- 14:49Speaker 3: the clock. He's managing the game tempo. He's shortening these
- 14:53Speaker 3: games for the opponent. He's putting the pressure on the
- 14:55Speaker 3: opposing quarterback. They've put up some big point totals, but
- 14:59Speaker 3: I don't get the feeling that he is trying to
- 15:02Speaker 3: win every game as a shootout.
- 15:04Speaker 2: I think he's okay winning some of these.
- 15:06Speaker 3: Games, lower scoring, which is not usually how these hot shot,
- 15:11Speaker 3: you know, upstart offensive coordinator types handle it. They just
- 15:14Speaker 3: want to flex how cool their offense is. So for
- 15:17Speaker 3: the film nerds, And then that's kind of the end
- 15:19Speaker 3: of the story. I don't get the vibe that that's
- 15:21Speaker 3: what Ben Johnson's doing, whether that's intentional or whether he's
- 15:25Speaker 3: forced into doing that because he had a backup quarterback.
- 15:28Speaker 2: It worked.
- 15:28Speaker 3: And hopefully if it is the latter, he recognizes that
- 15:31Speaker 3: that's why. And, you know, he continues to do it
- 15:34Speaker 3: because they have a pretty well-rounded roster in Chicago. And
- 15:38Speaker 3: I think playing that way and shortening games and forcing
- 15:41Speaker 3: the other offense to be perfect is a really good
- 15:43Speaker 3: strategy for them.
- 15:45Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 15:45Speaker 1: I would say that, uh, you know, the biggest thing
- 15:48Speaker 1: that I see as the reason to why they run
- 15:52Speaker 1: such a high volume of plays and try to have
- 15:54Speaker 1: play discrepancy and try to establish a running game on
- 15:58Speaker 1: top of the fact that a lot of his offense
- 16:00Speaker 1: is built off the running game in terms of the
- 16:02Speaker 1: play action passes and all that kind of stuff, you know,
- 16:04Speaker 1: right now they're second in the league and run rate.
- 16:07Speaker 1: And they're also near the top of the league and
- 16:09Speaker 1: play action rate.
- 16:10Speaker 6: Right.
- 16:10Speaker 1: So they, they run a lot of runs and they
- 16:12Speaker 1: run a lot of play action. Like that's, the sequencing
- 16:15Speaker 1: of their offense is very similar to a lot of
- 16:18Speaker 1: the Shanahan guys as well. But I think the other
- 16:21Speaker 1: big reason why he does it this way is because
- 16:23Speaker 1: they're not very good defensively. So in order to keep
- 16:27Speaker 1: the points down for the opponent and to keep the
- 16:30Speaker 1: defense off the field, they're possessing the ball a lot offensively.
- 16:34Speaker 1: So I think in a lot of ways, it's helping
- 16:36Speaker 1: out the defense more. a lot too, which is really
- 16:38Speaker 1: good on third down, which we'll get to, but not
- 16:40Speaker 1: so good on first and second down. So, uh, they
- 16:44Speaker 1: have that big discrepancy that variable pointed out on Monday
- 16:47Speaker 1: of like 73 plays offensively to 50 plays defensively per game.
- 16:52Speaker 1: They're possessing the ball at the highest rate in the
- 16:55Speaker 1: league too, just in terms of time of possession. So
- 16:58Speaker 1: they're trying to control the pace and control the game
- 17:02Speaker 1: with their offense. Like, that's the strength of the team.
- 17:04Speaker 1: They know that. The scheme, the talent is mostly on
- 17:09Speaker 1: the offensive side of the football. And so they're trying
- 17:12Speaker 1: to do it that way. And to his credit, it's
- 17:15Speaker 1: worked so far. It worked with a backup quarterback in there, too,
- 17:18Speaker 1: for the most part as well, like you said. It's
- 17:22Speaker 1: a different... it's the same, but different. I would say
- 17:25Speaker 1: schematically from a lot of the Shanahan guys, I think
- 17:28Speaker 1: it's got the same kind of core, uh, look to it.
- 17:31Speaker 1: You know, they run a lot of 12 and 13
- 17:33Speaker 1: personnel with multiple tight ends. Uh, they are run action team.
- 17:37Speaker 1: It's a lot of run game play action passes, uh,
- 17:40Speaker 1: that sort of thing. Uh, they are a team that
- 17:43Speaker 1: typically runs a lot of outside zone, you know, like that,
- 17:46Speaker 1: that is a lot of the same things that you see, uh,
- 17:49Speaker 1: from the Shanahan's the McVeigh's, uh, those types of people.
- 17:53Speaker 1: I would say the biggest difference that I see with
- 17:55Speaker 1: Johnson's offense, though, compared to those offenses, is he doesn't
- 17:59Speaker 1: get as caught up in the pre-snap stuff. Like, he
- 18:02Speaker 1: doesn't use as much motion and window dressing before the
- 18:05Speaker 1: ball is snapped. A lot of their sort of trickery
- 18:09Speaker 1: happens after the snap. Like, it's a lot of unique
- 18:12Speaker 1: wrinkles and play calls and angles and trick plays and
- 18:16Speaker 1: things like that that happen post-snap that is... confusing defenses
- 18:22Speaker 1: and playing with eyes and things like that. Less so
- 18:24Speaker 1: about like the eye candy or the window dressing before
- 18:27Speaker 1: the ball is snapped as the other offenses. So right
- 18:29Speaker 1: now Chicago is only 19th in the league in motion rate.
- 18:32Speaker 1: So they are not one of those teams that like
- 18:35Speaker 1: lives by motion. It's not like a way of life
- 18:37Speaker 1: for them compared to what, you know, the Shanahan tree
- 18:40Speaker 1: guys are like all up over 70% motion, 75% motion.
- 18:44Speaker 1: He's at like 62% motion. Now, how much of that
- 18:48Speaker 1: is Caleb Williams and backup quarterbacks? And like the quarterback
- 18:52Speaker 1: has a lot to do with motioning and triggering and
- 18:54Speaker 1: things like that. Maybe that's an element of it, but
- 18:57Speaker 1: it's not a McDaniel Shanahan McVay type of pre-snap scheme.
- 19:04Speaker 1: The other thing that is different than maybe what, you
- 19:08Speaker 1: would think, based off of the quarterback skill set, they
- 19:11Speaker 1: don't throw the ball down the field a ton. They're
- 19:14Speaker 1: not a... Right now, they're the lowest volume deep passing
- 19:18Speaker 1: offense in football when Caleb Williams is playing. They only
- 19:22Speaker 1: throw the ball down the field. Caleb's only thrown six
- 19:25Speaker 1: deep passes the entire year. Now, he hasn't played a ton,
- 19:27Speaker 1: but it's 4.4%, which is the lowest among qualified quarterbacks.
- 19:32Speaker 1: He's 31st in ADOT right now in average target depth.
- 19:36Speaker 1: So he's... Right now, you know, you, you talked about
- 19:40Speaker 1: like them possessing the ball and them, you know, putting
- 19:42Speaker 1: together long drives. Some of that is because they're running
- 19:45Speaker 1: the ball and they're throwing short passes.
- 19:47Speaker 3: Right.
- 19:47Speaker 1: So like, this is not one of those opportunities. that
- 19:51Speaker 1: like the Patriots, which is like all second and third
- 19:53Speaker 1: level throws. This is a lot of first and second
- 19:56Speaker 1: level throws right now for the, the bears offense, which
- 20:00Speaker 1: I think is a little bit different than what you
- 20:02Speaker 1: might expect out of a Caleb Williams type of offense.
- 20:07Speaker 3: Yeah, it, it, I don't want to say it's dink
- 20:10Speaker 3: and dunk because there's more purpose to it, but that's
- 20:13Speaker 3: how they're operating.
- 20:14Speaker 2: Again, it's a very controlled, monotonous offense.
- 20:18Speaker 1: Yeah. The last thing I would just say about him
- 20:21Speaker 1: that I think separates him a little bit from some
- 20:24Speaker 1: of these others.
- 20:24Speaker 2: Him being?
- 20:25Speaker 1: Ben Johnson, sorry. That is the late-down execution. They have
- 20:32Speaker 1: a much bigger menu of third-down and fourth-down plays than
- 20:36Speaker 1: he liked Dan Campbell has continued to aggressively call the
- 20:39Speaker 1: game on fourth down. They've gone in. I think it's
- 20:42Speaker 1: still the guy 15 times on fourth down this year.
- 20:45Speaker 1: They've gone for it. Their fifth, I believe it is
- 20:49Speaker 1: in third down conversion rate. So this is a much
- 20:52Speaker 1: more deeper menu of, of things that they can do
- 20:56Speaker 1: on third down, uh, compared to the other guys, they
- 20:59Speaker 1: just kind of want to skip third down. They don't
- 21:01Speaker 1: want to ever be in third down, right. If they
- 21:03Speaker 1: can avoid it. Uh, so he's a much more laid
- 21:07Speaker 1: down focus coach. Uh, I mentioned the trick plays. They
- 21:10Speaker 1: ran another hook and lateral, uh, last week against the
- 21:12Speaker 1: Falcons on a third down play. You, those are always
- 21:15Speaker 1: going to come out in a game with Ben Johnson,
- 21:17Speaker 1: especially on a Thursday night. Kevin Byard said that yesterday, like,
- 21:21Speaker 1: you know, on a short week, he's going to try
- 21:22Speaker 1: to throw something at the Patriots that they've never seen
- 21:25Speaker 1: before just to see if they can, you know, catch
- 21:28Speaker 1: him on one. So I'm really looking forward to watching
- 21:32Speaker 1: Zach core go up against one of the elite schemers
- 21:35Speaker 1: in the league, because I think cores on a heater.
- 21:38Speaker 1: I think he's been pretty much great the entire season.
- 21:41Speaker 1: I like Joe Brady. I think this is probably the
- 21:44Speaker 1: best coordinator that he's faced, or play caller, I should say,
- 21:48Speaker 1: that he's faced. So I think that... Yeah, I mean, respectfully....
- 21:54Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd put Liam Cohen much closer to Ben Johnson
- 21:58Speaker 3: than Joe Brady.
- 21:58Speaker 1: Probably. Yeah, that's fair. I forgot about Liam Cohen.
- 22:03Speaker 2: I also just... I think it's been a rough go
- 22:06Speaker 2: of it for Joe Brady, but that's another.
- 22:07Speaker 1: But that's a head coach that this is our thing.
- 22:09Speaker 1: This is a, that's a head coach conversation, not a
- 22:11Speaker 1: OC conversation, but that's besides the point. Well, all right.
- 22:17Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 22:17Speaker 7: Whatever.
- 22:18Speaker 2: We only have an hour. Let's keep going.
- 22:20Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that Joe Brady has done
- 22:23Speaker 1: a bad job with the bills offense?
- 22:26Speaker 2: I mean, we, we don't need to relitigate the bills game.
- 22:31Speaker 3: They had one of the best rushing attacks in the
- 22:32Speaker 3: league against a run defense that had been struggling.
- 22:35Speaker 2: They only ran the ball 12 times.
- 22:37Speaker 1: OK, that's a fair criticism of that.
- 22:39Speaker 3: You know, it took him, what, five weeks to get Kincaid?
- 22:42Speaker 3: Like there were random games that Dalton Kincaid just wasn't involved.
- 22:45Speaker 3: He had to get like talked into using Dalton Kincaid again.
- 22:48Speaker 3: Has Joe Brady done a good job with the Bills
- 22:50Speaker 3: offense or is Josh Allen just going to look good?
- 22:53Speaker 2: No matter what you call, because he's a good player.
- 22:55Speaker 1: Okay, so now Josh Allen's that good.
- 22:59Speaker 2: Yes, this is what I've always said.
- 23:01Speaker 1: You're kind of trapped here because you have to either
- 23:03Speaker 1: admit that Joe Brady is good or you have to
- 23:06Speaker 1: admit that Josh Allen is good. I mean, they're the
- 23:08Speaker 1: number one scoring offense in football. I don't think Josh
- 23:10Speaker 1: Allen is as good as he gets talked about sometimes.
- 23:12Speaker 2: I don't think.
- 23:15Speaker 3: Josh Allen is because he gets talked about sometimes. But
- 23:17Speaker 3: I've said this numerous times to you. The Bills also
- 23:20Speaker 3: hold Josh Allen back because they think he's that good
- 23:24Speaker 3: and they ask him to do what is realistically too much.
- 23:27Speaker 1: Okay. So in summary, though, they face three, I think,
- 23:32Speaker 1: really good schemers, play callers, whatever you want to call
- 23:36Speaker 1: them on offense. Oh, they will after they play Ben
- 23:39Speaker 1: Johnson tomorrow night. So Ben Johnson, Liam Cohn, Joe Brady.
- 23:44Speaker 1: You clearly have Joe Brady third out of three there. Yes.
- 23:47Speaker 1: I can hear that in your voice. How close do
- 23:50Speaker 1: you think the gap is between him and Ben Johnson
- 23:53Speaker 1: and Liam Cohn? Liam Cohn did have the advantage. Now
- 23:57Speaker 1: the Patriots has played bad everywhere in Jacksonville, to be fair. Uh,
- 24:01Speaker 1: so I don't know how much I put that necessarily
- 24:02Speaker 1: on Zach core that they just kind of had a
- 24:05Speaker 1: dud of a game. Uh, but that was the last
- 24:08Speaker 1: experience that we have kind of against what you would
- 24:11Speaker 1: call an elite play caller.
- 24:13Speaker 2: And he's, well, what about, what about your guy? Clint Kubiak?
- 24:16Speaker 1: He's good. I don't know if he has the horses though.
- 24:18Speaker 4: Right?
- 24:19Speaker 1: Like, I mean, besides Brock Bowers, like what's he really
- 24:21Speaker 1: working with?
- 24:21Speaker 2: That's fair. Yeah, no, I mean, it's it's a really
- 24:24Speaker 2: good test for.
- 24:25Speaker 1: For Zach or it is the last thing on the
- 24:28Speaker 1: Bears offense. And then we'll talk a little bit about
- 24:30Speaker 1: the Bears defense before the break. Some of the things
- 24:34Speaker 1: that have been tripping up, Caleb, are some of those
- 24:38Speaker 1: tricky cover twos that I always, you know, hype up
- 24:41Speaker 1: with the Patriots. disguise coverage post-snap rotation but split safety
- 24:46Speaker 1: shell and specifically uh that's why is a dot so
- 24:48Speaker 1: low is because he's seeing all these you know too
- 24:51Speaker 1: high safeties and uh they're trying to take away the
- 24:53Speaker 1: deep shots he's very similar to may in the aspect
- 24:57Speaker 1: of they all they both want to throw verticals outside
- 25:00Speaker 1: the numbers like that's that's the deep balls that they
- 25:03Speaker 1: want to throw are those one-on-one shots outside the numbers
- 25:07Speaker 1: or in play extension mode right like in scramble drills
- 25:10Speaker 1: So if you take away outside the numbers by clouding
- 25:14Speaker 1: the field, then they're kind of forcing Caleb to throw
- 25:18Speaker 1: these dink and dunk passes. Now he's done it at
- 25:20Speaker 1: a very effective level. I think he leads the league
- 25:22Speaker 1: in completion percentage and it's fifth in EPA per drop back.
- 25:25Speaker 1: So it's not like teams have stopped him completely, but yeah,
- 25:29Speaker 1: that type of defense and that type of style, making
- 25:32Speaker 1: them run the ball, making them throw short passes. At
- 25:35Speaker 1: least it keeps it close, right? It keeps the game
- 25:37Speaker 1: competitive and keeps you attached on the scoreboard versus giving
- 25:41Speaker 1: up explosives to Chicago. So it's very similar to how
- 25:44Speaker 1: teams are defending Drake May right now. It's keep them
- 25:46Speaker 1: in the pocket. Don't let them throw the one-on-one shots
- 25:49Speaker 1: outside the numbers, muddy the middle of the field and
- 25:52Speaker 1: spin the dial on him post-snap with the coverages and
- 25:56Speaker 1: kind of make him just be a check down Charlie,
- 25:59Speaker 1: like that, that that's really been their approach against him
- 26:02Speaker 1: really starting. I would say with Brian Flores in that
- 26:05Speaker 1: game again with Minnesota, uh, where I thought that they
- 26:08Speaker 1: gave him even with the rain, I thought that they
- 26:10Speaker 1: gave him some trouble schematically there. Um, moving over to
- 26:13Speaker 1: the bears defense. This is a very weird, uh, bears
- 26:18Speaker 1: defense from a statistical splits perspective. They are one of
- 26:22Speaker 1: the worst defenses in football on first and second down.
- 26:25Speaker 1: but they are one of the best defenses in football
- 26:27Speaker 1: on third down. So like we were talking about earlier,
- 26:30Speaker 1: how a lot of the Shanahan tree guys just want
- 26:32Speaker 1: to stay at a third down completely. This is a game.
- 26:35Speaker 1: If you're the Patriots where you kind of just want
- 26:37Speaker 1: to stay at a third down completely on offense. And
- 26:39Speaker 1: Drake may kind of alluded to it yesterday when I
- 26:42Speaker 1: asked him about it. And he said, you got to
- 26:44Speaker 1: be good on first and second down. They give up
- 26:46Speaker 1: a ton of explosive pass plays. They don't really stop
- 26:49Speaker 1: the run. Well, They don't really stop play action well.
- 26:52Speaker 1: So if you can stay out of third and long
- 26:55Speaker 1: against the Chicago defense, you can really move the football
- 26:59Speaker 1: against his defense. If you get into that Dennis Allen
- 27:01Speaker 1: pressure package on third down, that's where teams have really struggled.
- 27:06Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 27:06Speaker 3: This reminds me now it was earlier in the year.
- 27:08Speaker 3: The Jaguars were the same way going into that game.
- 27:13Speaker 3: You heard it there in the open talking about the
- 27:15Speaker 3: run game last week. This is where that's going to
- 27:17Speaker 3: be so important. if you can run the ball consistently
- 27:20Speaker 3: get into even just second and five, right. Second and six, that's,
- 27:26Speaker 3: it's going to go a long way in helping sustain drives.
- 27:29Speaker 3: You can't be in second and eight, second and 10 predictable.
- 27:33Speaker 3: Now you're in third and seven and now the bears
- 27:35Speaker 3: get to do what they want to do on third down.
- 27:37Speaker 3: So it's, you know, just like offensively or, you know, yeah.
- 27:43Speaker 3: Like you said, you want to kind of stay out
- 27:45Speaker 3: of it and that starts on early downs. So, I'll
- 27:48Speaker 3: be interested to see if they can replicate the success
- 27:50Speaker 3: they had running the ball last week because that's going
- 27:52Speaker 3: to be the easiest way to do that. If they
- 27:54Speaker 3: can get– they averaged 5.1 yards per carry on first
- 27:57Speaker 3: down last week.
- 27:58Speaker 2: They only had one negative run in 15 tries on
- 28:00Speaker 2: first down. If they can do that again, they should
- 28:03Speaker 2: be in pretty good shape.
- 28:04Speaker 3: If you're averaging second and five– because even if– part
- 28:08Speaker 3: of what makes some teams really good on third downs,
- 28:11Speaker 3: you look at it, The average distance to go is
- 28:14Speaker 3: much longer.
- 28:15Speaker 2: They're not good on.
- 28:16Speaker 3: Third downs because they're just third down lock in. It's
- 28:19Speaker 3: because where the average team is seeing third and four,
- 28:21Speaker 3: they're seeing third and seven, right? So if you can
- 28:23Speaker 3: at least get to third and two, third and three,
- 28:26Speaker 3: that third down defense isn't going to look quite as scary.
- 28:29Speaker 3: So they got to replicate the first down success they
- 28:32Speaker 3: had against the Jets.
- 28:33Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's a great point. And just to put
- 28:35Speaker 1: numbers to it, they're the second best third down defense
- 28:38Speaker 1: in football right now, 25.8%, just really impressive number. On
- 28:43Speaker 1: first and second down, they're 29th in EPA per play
- 28:46Speaker 1: right now. So they are a bottom five early down defense.
- 28:51Speaker 1: The other thing that, you know, really looking under the
- 28:53Speaker 1: hood with the numbers, their play action defense is also horrid.
- 28:58Speaker 1: They're 28th in the league in EPA per play against
- 29:00Speaker 1: play action passes. I watched that green Bay game a
- 29:04Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago where the Packers blew them out.
- 29:07Speaker 1: Here's Jordan loves stats on play action passes in that game.
- 29:10Speaker 1: 10 for 11. 228 yards in a touchdown on play
- 29:16Speaker 1: action passes against this bears defense. So you can really
- 29:20Speaker 1: shred them with big plays through the air off play action. Like,
- 29:23Speaker 1: like a green Bay did, you can really run the
- 29:25Speaker 1: ball on them. Uh, this is one of those games
- 29:28Speaker 1: where I wouldn't say the run game element is probably
- 29:32Speaker 1: a weakness on weakness kind of matchup, but the bears
- 29:36Speaker 1: inability to stop explosive passes and Drake May's ability to
- 29:40Speaker 1: to throw explosive passes is certainly a strength on weakness
- 29:43Speaker 1: for the Patriots. So I I'm looking for this game to,
- 29:47Speaker 1: I think Drake may is going to make plays in
- 29:48Speaker 1: this game. I think he's going to have opportunities to
- 29:50Speaker 1: push the ball down the field. against this bears defense.
- 29:53Speaker 1: And I, you know, in summary about this and then
- 29:56Speaker 1: after the break, we'll get into key matchups.
- 29:58Speaker 2: I picked, I got, I got one more number for you.
- 30:01Speaker 1: Okay. I picked 3330 in this game. Like, I think
- 30:03Speaker 1: we're going to get some points in this game because I,
- 30:07Speaker 1: I think both offenses have levers that they can pull
- 30:10Speaker 1: that might give the opposing defenses some problems. So I
- 30:13Speaker 1: expect Caleb and Drake may to have a little bit
- 30:15Speaker 1: of a shootout tomorrow night. What was the last number
- 30:18Speaker 1: you had?
- 30:19Speaker 2: I just real quick to off what you said.
- 30:21Speaker 3: It, If you can be sustainable on first and second down,
- 30:24Speaker 3: it makes that play action that much more effective. I
- 30:26Speaker 3: know you don't really believe in this, but I do.
- 30:28Speaker 3: Play action on second and three when you can realistically
- 30:32Speaker 3: run the ball is a lot more effective than play
- 30:34Speaker 3: action on second and ten. So staying ahead of schedule
- 30:38Speaker 3: is only going to make that better. Just to put
- 30:40Speaker 3: the ball on my point from before, average distance to
- 30:43Speaker 3: go on third down for defenses in the NFL, the
- 30:46Speaker 3: league average is like high six. The Bears are second
- 30:49Speaker 3: in the NFL. their opponents average eight yards to go
- 30:53Speaker 3: on third down. That's massive. Cause they're, that's a high number.
- 30:57Speaker 1: They're either getting them into third and long, or they're
- 30:59Speaker 1: giving up a 50 yard play on. And I will
- 31:02Speaker 1: say in between.
- 31:04Speaker 3: Real, you want to look very briefly ahead to the
- 31:06Speaker 3: Patriots on Thursday night game, you know, who's ahead of them.
- 31:08Speaker 3: So it's the bears at an even eight. Oh, there's
- 31:11Speaker 3: a couple of teams at seven, nine. The Vikings are
- 31:14Speaker 3: at nine too.
- 31:15Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 31:15Speaker 1: That defense is incredible.
- 31:16Speaker 2: That's, that's disgusting.
- 31:19Speaker 1: Brian Flores.
- 31:20Speaker 2: My goodness.
- 31:21Speaker 1: Yeah, that defense is incredible.
- 31:23Speaker 3: Another one that I wish was a longer week so
- 31:24Speaker 3: we could really dig into it, but we'll deal with
- 31:26Speaker 3: that one again.
- 31:26Speaker 1: Yeah, last point. I know I keep saying that, but
- 31:29Speaker 1: this is my last point, I promise. Part of the
- 31:32Speaker 1: reason why I.
- 31:35Speaker 1: I am harping so much on the early down stuff,
- 31:37Speaker 1: Alex is because this is a good way to protect
- 31:39Speaker 1: your offensive line too. Like if you have a bunch
- 31:42Speaker 1: of backup offensive linemen, like running the football is always
- 31:46Speaker 1: the way to go. Like, cause you're going to get
- 31:49Speaker 1: effort from those guys, right?
- 31:50Speaker 2: Like you're especially given the kind of players those guys
- 31:52Speaker 2: are for this team.
- 31:53Speaker 1: Yeah. And prior is a prior. He's a wide, big dude,
- 31:57Speaker 1: you know, like run blocker.
- 31:58Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 31:58Speaker 1: Like that's what he does. if you can run the
- 32:00Speaker 1: ball and then a lot of the play action schemes
- 32:03Speaker 1: that green Bay was using. And I, I put these
- 32:05Speaker 1: in my written game preview on Patriots.com. A lot of
- 32:08Speaker 1: it is like two and three receiver routes, right? Like
- 32:11Speaker 1: they're just, they're putting six, seven guys into the past
- 32:14Speaker 1: protection and they're only sending like two or three guys
- 32:17Speaker 1: down the field. So like, that's a perfect way to
- 32:19Speaker 1: protect your offensive line. Like we're going to establish a
- 32:21Speaker 1: line of scrimmage in the run game. And then when
- 32:24Speaker 1: we do pass, we're not going to drop back pass
- 32:26Speaker 1: on third down where we have to send five out
- 32:28Speaker 1: into the pattern. We're actually just going to be able
- 32:30Speaker 1: to send two or three guys down the field, leave
- 32:33Speaker 1: the tight ends in, leave the back in and really
- 32:36Speaker 1: load up the protection. Dennis Allen's blitz package on third
- 32:40Speaker 1: down is highly effective. They'd run a lot of simulated pressures.
- 32:44Speaker 1: It's similar to the Patriots. They play a lot of
- 32:46Speaker 1: quarters behind it though. And Kyler Gordon had those three
- 32:49Speaker 1: sacks last week. I know everybody's talking about what the strip,
- 32:52Speaker 1: the two strip sacks specifically, that's the type of game
- 32:55Speaker 1: you do not want to get against the bears defense.
- 32:58Speaker 1: Do not let this become a drop back passing game,
- 33:01Speaker 1: especially with backups on the interior of your offensive line.
- 33:05Speaker 1: If you can run the football defensively, stay ahead of
- 33:08Speaker 1: the chains, play action, pass off the run game. They're
- 33:11Speaker 1: going to put up points. If they get into third
- 33:13Speaker 1: and long, uh, like the bears can do against teams
- 33:16Speaker 1: like they did last week for a lot of that
- 33:18Speaker 1: game against Atlanta. That's when the Patriots are going to
- 33:20Speaker 1: have issues offensively, I think, in this game. So it
- 33:24Speaker 1: will be a good matchup on both sides. Dennis Allen
- 33:26Speaker 1: and Josh McDaniels, two old heads. Is that fair to
- 33:30Speaker 1: call them both old heads at this point?
- 33:32Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's fair.
- 33:34Speaker 1: They've been doing it a long time. And then, you know,
- 33:36Speaker 1: Ben Johnson and Zach Corr on the other side of
- 33:39Speaker 1: the ball when the Bears have it.
- 33:40Speaker 4: All right.
- 33:40Speaker 1: We're going to do key matchups after the break.
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- 36:25Speaker 1: I was like, okay, it's a sculpture that's a piece
- 36:28Speaker 1: of metal. I don't know.
- 36:29Speaker 2: What did you think it was?
- 36:31Speaker 1: Nothing. I don't know. I kind of was along for
- 36:34Speaker 1: the ride, honestly. I just was like, all right, wherever
- 36:36Speaker 1: you guys want to go is fine with me. It
- 36:40Speaker 1: wasn't worth it. It's all right.
- 36:42Speaker 6: You got to see it at least once, but once
- 36:43Speaker 6: you see it, take a picture, you're done.
- 36:45Speaker 1: I know. I really want to go to a Bulls game,
- 36:48Speaker 1: even though they're, you know, so-so basketball team right now.
- 36:50Speaker 1: But I just have always wanted to go see a
- 36:53Speaker 1: Bulls game in Chicago. And we never seem to hit
- 36:57Speaker 1: it at a time where we can go to a
- 36:58Speaker 1: Bulls game, which is a little bit disappointing. But anyways,
- 37:01Speaker 1: let's get into key matchups. And I had a kind
- 37:05Speaker 1: of a tough time this week with my key matchups, Alex.
- 37:08Speaker 1: I feel like this is such a this is so
- 37:10Speaker 1: much more of a big picture kind of game, you know,
- 37:13Speaker 1: schemes and short week. And like, I, I don't really
- 37:17Speaker 1: feel like this is like truly a key matchups kind
- 37:20Speaker 1: of game. Uh, but one of the themes that I,
- 37:22Speaker 1: I was hammering home and want to hammer, hammer home is,
- 37:25Speaker 1: When you play on a short week and you're banged
- 37:27Speaker 1: up across the roster like this, the big dogs got
- 37:31Speaker 1: to eat. The stars got to come to play. This
- 37:34Speaker 1: is one of those games where, starting with my first
- 37:36Speaker 1: key matchup, A.J. Brown versus Jalen Johnson, the Bears' top cornerback. A.J.
- 37:41Speaker 1: Brown has to have a bounce-back game. Romeo Dobbs is
- 37:44Speaker 1: now on injured reserve. They're down two starting guards. You
- 37:48Speaker 1: need your number one wide receiver to earn his paycheck
- 37:52Speaker 1: on Thursday night. and have himself a game. I kind
- 37:55Speaker 1: of expect it to happen. I think that he'll bounce back.
- 37:58Speaker 1: I think it's prime time. I think that he knows, uh,
- 38:01Speaker 1: you know, that he didn't play well, uh, last week, but, uh,
- 38:04Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson, as much as he's got brand recognition, he's
- 38:07Speaker 1: actually struggled a little bit this year. Uh, PFF right
- 38:11Speaker 1: now has him 94th out of 101 qualified cornerbacks. and
- 38:16Speaker 1: pff grab not the biggest pff grade guy but when
- 38:19Speaker 1: a guy is 94th that is supposed to be uh
- 38:23Speaker 1: one of the top corners you know in the league
- 38:27Speaker 1: uh that's a notable number uh but in general it's
- 38:30Speaker 1: more about aj brown here they need aj brown to
- 38:33Speaker 1: look like aj brown.
- 38:35Speaker 3: Yeah how about just aj brown versus aj brown yeah
- 38:38Speaker 3: as a key matchup just put last week behind you
- 38:40Speaker 3: and go out and win You know, he's had big
- 38:43Speaker 3: games against the Bears before. We know he can do it.
- 38:47Speaker 3: He's just got to put those drops behind him and
- 38:48Speaker 3: go out and play ball. And if he does, he
- 38:50Speaker 3: can have a big game.
- 38:51Speaker 2: I think, in this one.
- 38:52Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. They just gave Jalen Johnson an extension,
- 38:55Speaker 1: not a Christian Gonzalez level extension, but a four year,
- 38:59Speaker 1: $ 76 million contract extension. So not nothing, you know, he
- 39:03Speaker 1: got a pretty nice raise in extension there in Chicago.
- 39:07Speaker 1: So far this season, Jalen Johnson, 73.1 completion rate into
- 39:12Speaker 1: his coverage. 73.1 for a guy that is supposed to
- 39:16Speaker 1: be like your number one corner, 115.1 passer rating against. So, uh, again,
- 39:23Speaker 1: name recognition, good player in the past. Hasn't been playing
- 39:27Speaker 1: particularly well. Kind of sounds like the guy on the page.
- 39:30Speaker 1: that he's going to be going up against, right. You know,
- 39:33Speaker 1: so it's a very similar, uh, we talked to AJ
- 39:35Speaker 1: Brown yesterday and he didn't really want to talk too
- 39:39Speaker 1: much about last week. He was sort of flushing it
- 39:42Speaker 1: onto the next. He did mention that his ankle feels
- 39:45Speaker 1: good coming off the game. And that he felt like
- 39:48Speaker 1: it's actually the bumps and bruises from playing in a
- 39:51Speaker 1: football game that are on his mind right now, not
- 39:53Speaker 1: the ankle. He also said that I did ask him, like,
- 39:57Speaker 1: did it, was it at all silver lining or encouraging
- 40:01Speaker 1: that you were open a lot in the game? You
- 40:02Speaker 1: just didn't finish the play. You know, you didn't make
- 40:06Speaker 1: the catches. And he said he kind of agreed with
- 40:08Speaker 1: that premise, that line of thinking. He said that getting
- 40:12Speaker 1: open is the hardest part. So it wasn't that he
- 40:15Speaker 1: wasn't getting open. So that's encouraging. But I thought overall
- 40:19Speaker 1: yesterday he sounded like a guy that was kind of
- 40:22Speaker 1: determined to put last week behind him and show what
- 40:25Speaker 1: he could do on Thursday night. I mentioned this in
- 40:29Speaker 1: our preview as well, but remember last year, how digs
- 40:32Speaker 1: just always played well in these primetime games, like Buffalo, Baltimore,
- 40:38Speaker 1: the jets, a game was a Thursday night game, like
- 40:40Speaker 1: all of these primetime games. I feel like the, those
- 40:44Speaker 1: star players like that, this is when they, they really
- 40:48Speaker 1: come out and put on a show. So let's see
- 40:50Speaker 1: it from AJ Brown. The second key matchup I had
- 40:55Speaker 1: was just bolted tackles. Like they don't have Montez sweat
- 40:59Speaker 1: in this game. So that that's big, but his replacement
- 41:03Speaker 1: last week, Daniel Hardy had a pretty big game against
- 41:06Speaker 1: Atlanta has six pressures. He had a sack. So whether
- 41:08Speaker 1: it's Loma or Moses over there on the right side,
- 41:11Speaker 1: On the left side for Campbell, I've always liked Austin Booker.
- 41:15Speaker 1: I liked him coming out of the draft. I think
- 41:18Speaker 1: that he's a pretty good player. Kind of reminds me
- 41:20Speaker 1: a little bit of Ponder, like a longer, like sort
- 41:23Speaker 1: of speed rusher off the edge. I could see him,
- 41:26Speaker 1: you know, just from a body type standpoint, he's got
- 41:28Speaker 1: some length. He's got longer strides, a little bit taller.
- 41:32Speaker 1: I could see him being a little bit of a
- 41:34Speaker 1: difficult matchup for Will Campbell in this game. But, you know,
- 41:38Speaker 1: those are two guys I think, you know, on the
- 41:40Speaker 1: edges that they have to worry about a little bit
- 41:42Speaker 1: this week.
- 41:44Speaker 3: Yeah, no, this is it's a good rush, even without sweat.
- 41:47Speaker 3: And like you said, they're going to need time against
- 41:51Speaker 3: this Bears defense. So big game for for those guys.
- 41:55Speaker 1: Last one for me. And then if you have any, uh,
- 41:57Speaker 1: feel free to chime in.
- 41:59Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 42:00Speaker 1: Uh, darn all right. Versus Draymond Jones is like an
- 42:03Speaker 1: old school football brawl. This is, those are two, those
- 42:09Speaker 1: are two heavy handed customers that are going to be
- 42:12Speaker 1: going up against one another. Uh, right. As really developed
- 42:15Speaker 1: into one of the best right tackles in football. Uh,
- 42:18Speaker 1: they obviously for good reason, uh, run it right behind
- 42:22Speaker 1: him a lot as I would probably too, with how
- 42:25Speaker 1: effective he is as a run blocker. Draymond Jones has
- 42:28Speaker 1: been great setting the edge. Uh, they usually line him
- 42:30Speaker 1: up on the strong side. I assume he's going to
- 42:32Speaker 1: be overwrite a lot in this game to try to
- 42:34Speaker 1: set the edge of the defense. You're going to get
- 42:36Speaker 1: a lot of outside zone, probably to the right side. Uh,
- 42:40Speaker 1: but this is, uh, if you want to see two
- 42:42Speaker 1: guys that are going to, uh, be in like a
- 42:44Speaker 1: heavy weight bout, uh, those two guys are going to
- 42:47Speaker 1: be squaring up on Thursday night.
- 42:51Speaker 5: Yeah. Yeah.
- 42:52Speaker 2: I'm curious.
- 42:53Speaker 3: So for mine, I'm curious, who do you think Gonzalez
- 42:55Speaker 3: gets a doomsday or burden?
- 42:58Speaker 1: It's a good question. You know, burden, they haven't played.
- 43:01Speaker 1: He doesn't play a ton. He like he played, he
- 43:04Speaker 1: has high volume, but.
- 43:06Speaker 2: He's kind of what digs was here last year.
- 43:08Speaker 1: Cause they play them in three receiver sets and they
- 43:10Speaker 1: play them out of the slot. When they go to
- 43:12Speaker 1: 11 personnel, uh, Cleve Raymond plays a lot more on,
- 43:16Speaker 1: on their base, like 12 personnel packages right now than burden.
- 43:20Speaker 1: So like burden to me is a perfect Marcus Jones
- 43:23Speaker 1: kind of guy. Like it's just a speed on speed
- 43:25Speaker 1: thing and a inside, you know, slot receiver type of thing.
- 43:29Speaker 1: I would say I probably expect Gonzalez to play a
- 43:32Speaker 1: little bit more on a doomsday in this game. But,
- 43:34Speaker 1: you know, one of the other kind of under the
- 43:37Speaker 1: hood numbers with Caleb Williams, teams are terrified to play
- 43:41Speaker 1: man coverage against Caleb Williams. He's the second lowest man
- 43:44Speaker 1: coverage rate in football because they're worried about the play
- 43:47Speaker 1: extension and the scrambles, right? So they don't play a
- 43:50Speaker 1: ton of man coverage against him. The Patriots do play
- 43:53Speaker 1: a ton of man coverage, especially when Gonzalez is healthy.
- 43:56Speaker 1: So how does that chess match work itself out? I
- 43:58Speaker 1: think is important in this game as well.
- 44:01Speaker 3: So just say Gonzalez on whoever on that top receiver,
- 44:04Speaker 3: and then just what are they going to do against
- 44:06Speaker 3: Colson Loveland? They still have these issues covering tight ends.
- 44:09Speaker 3: Not really a key matchup. I guess these are more questions, but.
- 44:12Speaker 3: The coverage matchups are going to be interesting. I don't
- 44:14Speaker 3: think there's as clear of a pattern as maybe some
- 44:18Speaker 3: of the other games the Patriots have played this year,
- 44:20Speaker 3: even with Gonzalez back. Do you put Gonzalez on Loveland?
- 44:24Speaker 2: Now, I do think it's interesting.
- 44:26Speaker 3: When Vrabel talked about Brock Bowers two weeks ago, he
- 44:30Speaker 3: did the whole Belichick-Travis Kelsey. Well, he's really a receiver,
- 44:33Speaker 3: and you've got to treat him like that. He talked
- 44:35Speaker 3: about Loveland like a tight end. I don't have the
- 44:37Speaker 3: exact quote in front of me, Evan. I don't know
- 44:38Speaker 3: if you remember it, but Mentioned, like, his ability to
- 44:41Speaker 3: create in-line, his ability as a blocker. I wouldn't hate,
- 44:47Speaker 3: in theory, putting a tight corner on Loveland. I don't
- 44:51Speaker 3: know if he's the kind of player you can do
- 44:52Speaker 3: that against, though, like Bowers.
- 44:54Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting matchup. And Loveland has kind of
- 44:58Speaker 1: had an underwhelming start here to the season. He really
- 45:01Speaker 1: came on late in the year last year and in
- 45:03Speaker 1: the playoffs for them. And I think everybody thought that
- 45:06Speaker 1: this year he was just going to absolutely explode. And
- 45:09Speaker 1: it hasn't really happened yet with him.
- 45:13Speaker 4: But.
- 45:14Speaker 1: He, I completely agree with variables assessment of him as
- 45:17Speaker 1: a player. I think he's definitely more of a traditional
- 45:21Speaker 1: wide tight end than like a Brock Bowers or, you know,
- 45:23Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey, like he can move around and they'll detach
- 45:27Speaker 1: him sometimes, but he can block, like he can put
- 45:29Speaker 1: his hand in the dirt and block. He can block
- 45:31Speaker 1: in college too. Like this isn't like a new thing
- 45:33Speaker 1: with him. He's a much better blocker than he gets
- 45:36Speaker 1: credit for. I think sometimes, cause he is so dynamic
- 45:38Speaker 1: and athletic as a receiver. I am very curious how
- 45:42Speaker 1: the Patriots generally speaking, match the Bills' offensive personnel. because
- 45:48Speaker 1: the bill or the bills, the bears, the bears, uh,
- 45:51Speaker 1: they run just as much too tight end as pretty
- 45:54Speaker 1: much anybody in the league. They run a lot of
- 45:56Speaker 1: 13 personnel too, with three tight ends on the field. Uh, it's,
- 46:00Speaker 1: they are all bought in on that. Uh, they're, they
- 46:03Speaker 1: have the second highest rate of two tight end sets
- 46:05Speaker 1: in football, but the highest is the Raiders who are
- 46:09Speaker 1: doing it with Brock Bowers. And it's like kind of
- 46:11Speaker 1: a different thing, right? So they're really like the number
- 46:14Speaker 1: one team in traditional football, Two tight end sets and
- 46:19Speaker 1: the Patriots are near the top of the league and
- 46:21Speaker 1: how much nickel defense they run and how much three
- 46:23Speaker 1: corner nickel specifically they run with Marcus Jones in the slot.
- 46:28Speaker 1: I don't feel great about the Patriots matching the Bears
- 46:33Speaker 1: to tight end and three tight end personnel groupings. in
- 46:36Speaker 1: three corner nickel. Like I, I think you're going to
- 46:39Speaker 1: get Marcus Jones on tight ends. I think you're going
- 46:41Speaker 1: to get advantages for the bears in the running game.
- 46:44Speaker 1: I think the Patriots are going to be too light
- 46:46Speaker 1: in that personnel grouping. So what do you do? Do
- 46:49Speaker 1: you run base? Do you run three safety nickel? And
- 46:52Speaker 1: this is a big Jalen Reed game. Uh, those are
- 46:54Speaker 1: things that I think that they're probably working out right
- 46:57Speaker 1: now because the pats want to play in three corner nickel.
- 47:00Speaker 1: Cause those three corners are great. Like that's where they're
- 47:02Speaker 1: at their best. Can they stop the bears run game?
- 47:06Speaker 1: And if Loveland or even Cole commit, who's a beast
- 47:09Speaker 1: get matched up on their DBS, like, is that a
- 47:12Speaker 1: matchup that they're going to be able to have, you know,
- 47:14Speaker 1: a heavyweight fight, they're going to be able to win.
- 47:17Speaker 1: So I'm very curious to see holistically just how the
- 47:20Speaker 1: Patriots line up against the bears defensively. This kind of
- 47:24Speaker 1: takes them a little bit out of their comfort zone
- 47:26Speaker 1: defensively when they play in three quarter nickel, they're dynamite.
- 47:29Speaker 1: They're one of the best defenses in football. Their base defense,
- 47:33Speaker 1: there's three safety, which they've done a little bit of.
- 47:36Speaker 1: That hasn't been quite as effective. So time to see
- 47:39Speaker 1: what they do against an offense like this. I'm really
- 47:42Speaker 1: curious about it. Like Loveland's an interesting matchup for them.
- 47:45Speaker 1: You know, I think at times both Woodson and Bayard
- 47:48Speaker 1: have struggled a little bit on tight ends this season.
- 47:51Speaker 1: They haven't always gotten burned by it, but I think
- 47:54Speaker 1: that they've struggled away from the ball at times too.
- 47:57Speaker 1: So is this finally the game where Jalen Reed really
- 48:00Speaker 1: makes an impact? You know, is that the player that
- 48:03Speaker 1: they use against him? If Carlton Davis is back in
- 48:05Speaker 1: this game, do they bring Carlton Davis inside a little bit,
- 48:09Speaker 1: you know, and put him on over maybe over the
- 48:11Speaker 1: nub side of the formation where the two tight ends
- 48:13Speaker 1: are lined up and that way there they can kind of,
- 48:16Speaker 1: you know, do that sort of thing. I don't know
- 48:19Speaker 1: what direction they go with it, but I'm fascinated to
- 48:22Speaker 1: see what do you think the best approach is?
- 48:25Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is one of those games.
- 48:27Speaker 3: I think we said this a couple weeks ago. Could
- 48:30Speaker 3: you get more out of a guy like Jalen Reed.
- 48:34Speaker 3: And is this where, you know, adding a guy like that,
- 48:37Speaker 3: he's been in the system now for a couple of months,
- 48:40Speaker 3: adding a guy like that starts to pay its dividends.
- 48:41Speaker 3: I think that's how you probably really want to play
- 48:44Speaker 3: a game like this, but it comes down to, is
- 48:45Speaker 3: he ready?
- 48:46Speaker 2: Is he up for it? And it is tough to
- 48:48Speaker 2: take Marcus Jones off the field.
- 48:49Speaker 7: It is.
- 48:49Speaker 2: He is such a good player. So it's, it's, it's
- 48:53Speaker 2: a tough one.
- 48:53Speaker 3: Like this is part of what makes the bears so
- 48:55Speaker 3: tough is that this is it.
- 48:57Speaker 2: Like you said it there. And it's a really good point.
- 49:01Speaker 2: This is a real two tight end offense.
- 49:04Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 49:04Speaker 3: And that doesn't mean Brock Bowers is not a good player,
- 49:08Speaker 3: but Brock Bowers, the wide receiver.
- 49:09Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 49:10Speaker 2: This is a real legit two tight ends. They can
- 49:14Speaker 2: run the ball on you. They're going to line up
- 49:16Speaker 2: in line. It's going to be a condensed formation. Like
- 49:19Speaker 2: this is a real.
- 49:20Speaker 3: 12 personnel offense and presents more. The Raiders offense presents
- 49:27Speaker 3: some very unique challenges. Some of them are not consistent
- 49:30Speaker 3: with what you traditionally think of with like a 12
- 49:33Speaker 3: personnel offense. This offense presents the challenges that traditionally comes
- 49:36Speaker 3: with that 12 personnel look that we know so well here.
- 49:40Speaker 3: because of how much Josh McDaniels has used it over
- 49:42Speaker 3: the years.
- 49:43Speaker 1: Yeah. It presents, you know, use your word though. The
- 49:47Speaker 1: Raiders 12 personnel presents like 11, like it presents like
- 49:50Speaker 1: a three wide receiver set because Bowers is 90% of
- 49:54Speaker 1: the time Bowers is detached from the formation. So whether
- 49:57Speaker 1: he's in the slaughter, he's out wide, he's a wide receiver.
- 50:00Speaker 1: You're treating it like a 11 personnel offense. This is
- 50:03Speaker 1: a true 12. Like this is true to tight end
- 50:06Speaker 1: quarterback under center, uh, type of offense. And it's a
- 50:10Speaker 1: different kind of unique challenge. Uh, the last thing I
- 50:13Speaker 1: would say about that before we wrap it up as
- 50:16Speaker 1: just a way to kind of defend it. I wonder
- 50:18Speaker 1: if they almost invert the structure and put Marcus Jones
- 50:22Speaker 1: kind of at safety in the deep part of the field.
- 50:25Speaker 1: to keep him on the field, but then have Craig
- 50:28Speaker 1: Woodson and Kevin Byard as the guys that are playing
- 50:30Speaker 1: down in the box.
- 50:32Speaker 3: Right.
- 50:32Speaker 1: And sort of like switch it that way. So it
- 50:34Speaker 1: probably would be like, uh, you know, still nickel, uh,
- 50:38Speaker 1: in three corner nickel at that, but you're getting maybe
- 50:41Speaker 1: a little bit bigger, uh, bodies like in Woodson and
- 50:45Speaker 1: Bayard closer to the line of scrimmage versus having Marcus
- 50:48Speaker 1: Jones in the nickel spot. I love Marcus Jones as
- 50:51Speaker 1: a player, but knowing Ben Johnson, if you put a
- 50:56Speaker 1: 180 pound nickel on the field against him, when they
- 50:59Speaker 1: have two tight ends on the field, he is going
- 51:01Speaker 1: to run the ball right at him. You know, and
- 51:03Speaker 1: like Marcus Jones does a great job of holding up
- 51:06Speaker 1: at that size in the run game. But we talked
- 51:10Speaker 1: about it at the top of the show with the bears,
- 51:11Speaker 1: they're committed to it. Like they're not, this is not Buffalo.
- 51:14Speaker 1: They're not going to get duped out of stopping the run,
- 51:17Speaker 1: like stopping running the football. They're going to keep running it.
- 51:21Speaker 1: And so eventually that that's going to wear on the
- 51:24Speaker 1: Patriots if they are too small defensively. So really interesting matchup,
- 51:28Speaker 1: a really fun one. Uh, we're going to be back
- 51:31Speaker 1: on this show on Tuesday.
- 51:33Speaker 4: All right.
- 51:33Speaker 1: It's going to be a little bit of a layoff.
- 51:35Speaker 1: We had this with the Seahawks game too. It's kind
- 51:39Speaker 1: of weird that we're going to come back almost a
- 51:40Speaker 1: week later and talk about the game. But we're going
- 51:43Speaker 1: to talk about this game next Tuesday on Catch 22.
- 51:46Speaker 1: We'll go back to Tuesday, Thursday with the Patriots back, thankfully,
- 51:51Speaker 1: on a Sunday game next week in Miami, going down
- 51:54Speaker 1: to Miami again. So that'll be fun. That's it for
- 51:58Speaker 1: here on Catch 22. Patriots Unfiltered is up in five minutes. Barty,
- 52:03Speaker 1: thanks again for tuning in remotely for us. Will I
- 52:06Speaker 1: see you next week, hopefully? Yeah, if I'm not.
- 52:09Speaker 2: Back next week, I mean, that says it. bigger problems
- 52:12Speaker 2: but yeah i should.
- 52:13Speaker 1: Be that's the goal that's the goal of the sea
- 52:15Speaker 1: of next week so we'll see you guys next week
- 52:17Speaker 1: on catch 22 uh patriots unfiltered is coming up next bye.
- 52:23Speaker 6: Hey this is deuce thanks for tuning into the show
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