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UFC DFS Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
Speaker 1: All systems go.
0:06
Speaker 2: Clear your liftoff. What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to
0:38
Speaker 2: the weekly MMA show. We have UFC Fight Night at
0:42
Speaker 2: the Meta Apex, 5 p.m. Eastern this Saturday. Hope everybody's
0:46
Speaker 2: having a great week. Hope you had a profitable week
0:49
Speaker 2: last week. I'll throw it to you right away. We
0:52
Speaker 2: usually don't talk about last week's card much, but the
0:54
Speaker 2: stand-up from Dan Mergliata, I don't know if you were
0:57
Speaker 2: watching the Moicano, Tom Nolan Live, or if you saw
1:00
Speaker 2: a replay, if you didn't have anything or if you
1:03
Speaker 2: didn't really see it, you don't need to comment but
1:05
Speaker 2: definitely controversial uh last week in the main event but
1:08
Speaker 2: how we doing today and the thoughts on that good.
1:10
Speaker 1: Yeah i actually didn't even see it i heard a
1:12
Speaker 1: lot about it um but yeah i didn't even see
1:16
Speaker 1: i might have seen a clip on twitter but not
1:17
Speaker 1: enough to give any thoughts on it.
1:20
Speaker 2: That's fair if you didn't watch the fight it's hard
1:23
Speaker 2: to comment on a stand-up but yeah i mean everyone
1:27
Speaker 2: felt very strongly about it i mean i guess i
1:28
Speaker 2: did too like The back and the body triangle is
1:32
Speaker 2: a very dominant position. The fighter should have to get
1:34
Speaker 2: out of that. With that being said, it's not like
1:36
Speaker 2: Moikano was doing anything, landing any damage. But, yeah, I
1:40
Speaker 2: guess when you're in mount or you're that deep, can
1:44
Speaker 2: you pull him off? Jelton Almeida, even though when he
1:46
Speaker 2: wasn't doing anything in mount, it's pretty hard to remove
1:49
Speaker 2: a fighter from a position that dominant. So it definitely
1:52
Speaker 2: changed the whole fight. Moikano gets clipped after Tom Nolan
1:55
Speaker 2: takes over from there. So, yeah, it's sad to see it,
1:58
Speaker 2: I guess. go down that way. But Tom Nolan was
2:01
Speaker 2: the better fighter last Sunday. Pretty solid 14 fight card.
2:05
Speaker 2: You going to say something, Marley? Yeah, yeah.
2:07
Speaker 1: I would say in general, I don't really like standups, especially,
2:11
Speaker 1: you know, for the fighters. But I do think that
2:14
Speaker 1: main event fighters should be held to a different standard
2:17
Speaker 1: where they need to make the fight a little bit
2:19
Speaker 1: more exciting. People are paying a lot of money to
2:22
Speaker 1: be there seeing them fight.
2:23
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
2:23
Speaker 1: So I don't think that they should be allowed to
2:25
Speaker 1: just stay in boring, dominant positions. Um, but in general,
2:29
Speaker 1: I think it should be just a rule. Either we
2:31
Speaker 1: stand them up or we don't stand them up type
2:33
Speaker 1: of thing.
2:33
Speaker 2: Yeah. That's the, I always talk about the variance in MMA.
2:36
Speaker 2: There's variance inside variance inside variance, not only four ounce gloves.
2:41
Speaker 2: Anyone can get a flash knockout or tear their ACL
2:44
Speaker 2: or whatever. But then if you do get the person right,
2:47
Speaker 2: they need to score enough. Then if they score enough,
2:50
Speaker 2: you need the judges to get it right. And then
2:51
Speaker 2: you also need the refs to make the right call.
2:54
Speaker 2: And then you also need the fighters and a nut
2:56
Speaker 2: shot or an eye poke. to continue fighting and not quit.
3:00
Speaker 2: So much just goes into it. But hey, that's why
3:02
Speaker 2: I embrace the variance, embrace the volatility, try and win
3:05
Speaker 2: as much money to first place when you win and
3:08
Speaker 2: not dupe with everyone else. It's kind of my thought process.
3:10
Speaker 2: And we have a good card for that. 14 fights.
3:13
Speaker 2: This bashy Calderon fight was added yesterday, I believe it was.
3:17
Speaker 2: So awesome that we get 14 now. 12 of the
3:21
Speaker 2: 14 fights are expected to finish. The only two women's
3:23
Speaker 2: fights are the ones that aren't. So Yeah, I think
3:26
Speaker 2: every fight is fadable. I will not be making any rule.
3:29
Speaker 2: And I think we're in for a good high, high
3:32
Speaker 2: violence week. So what are your thoughts before we go
3:35
Speaker 2: fight by fight?
3:37
Speaker 1: Definitely not my favorite card from like a fan standpoint
3:40
Speaker 1: or from watching that like eight hours worth of fights.
3:43
Speaker 1: But I do think it's a decent DFS card. And
3:47
Speaker 1: if I'm live, that's going to make it more exciting.
3:50
Speaker 1: And I'm trying to ride Rio's momentum, man, coming off
3:52
Speaker 1: a million-dollar win last week, and I'm feeling good for him.
3:55
Speaker 1: So I feel like my time's coming soon. Maybe this
3:57
Speaker 1: is the card.
3:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it. Yeah, shout-out to the man, Hebrew Cheat.
4:00
Speaker 2: Also a crusher in MMA, crusher in all DFS sports,
4:03
Speaker 2: but a smooth million for the man who is very
4:07
Speaker 2: well-deserving of that. All right, we are going to go
4:09
Speaker 2: bottom to top. Like always, all we ask is the
4:12
Speaker 2: like button and subscribe button. Helps us out a ton. Again,
4:15
Speaker 2: this fight was placed on the card yesterday. I believe
4:18
Speaker 2: maybe Tuesday night, but I think it was yesterday. It
4:20
Speaker 2: was supposed to be Austin Bashe versus Lucas Brennan, I believe.
4:26
Speaker 2: Out is Brennan with an injury in steps Calderon making
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Speaker 2: his UFC debut. Minus 605 Bashe plus 454 Calderon. Only
4:33
Speaker 2: two props I see. Minus 260 inside the distance. Under
4:36
Speaker 2: two and a half at minus 200. And under two
4:40
Speaker 2: and a half open plus 128. So, again, this line
4:43
Speaker 2: is very new. It doesn't take too much to move
4:45
Speaker 2: the line that much, but it is something– For me,
4:49
Speaker 2: it's Bashir Pass. I'm going to pretend Bashir is 9,600
4:52
Speaker 2: because we have a 9,700 who's a slightly bigger favorite
4:55
Speaker 2: than we have a 9,500 who's less. So I think
4:58
Speaker 2: it's going to slot right in 9,600, 6,600. It's Bashir
5:03
Speaker 2: Pass for me, a primary wrestler with the full camp
5:06
Speaker 2: against someone on day's notice in their UFC debut. And
5:09
Speaker 2: I do have quite a bit of interest in Bashir too.
5:11
Speaker 2: His upside is unmasked with his wrestling heavy game plan.
5:14
Speaker 2: So yeah, Bashir Pass, what are you doing in this one? Yeah.
5:17
Speaker 1: I didn't look into Calderon yet. I watched a little
5:19
Speaker 1: bit of highlights. I looked at his record. I take
5:22
Speaker 1: it that he's a grappler, uh, taking the fight on
5:24
Speaker 1: short notice. And the line says that Bashy should win.
5:28
Speaker 1: I like Bashy style in general. He's a good grappler,
5:31
Speaker 1: good wrestler himself. So I think he's the one that
5:34
Speaker 1: can dictate where the fight takes place. Uh, so yeah,
5:36
Speaker 1: I agree. Bashy or pass. And I would imagine, uh,
5:40
Speaker 1: I would like him at $ 9, 600 and that's going to
5:43
Speaker 1: take away the like that I would have for who's
5:45
Speaker 1: at 97. Uh, Sakyong Ko or whatever his name is.
5:51
Speaker 1: I like Bashy more than him. If Bashy was taking
5:53
Speaker 1: it on short notice, maybe I wouldn't love it as much,
5:56
Speaker 1: but I expect his cardio to be fine. And if
5:58
Speaker 1: he wants to land 10 takedowns in this fight, I
6:00
Speaker 1: think he could do that.
6:02
Speaker 2: I agree. How much Bashy do you think you'd have relative?
6:06
Speaker 2: Like when you're playing 9,600, you're going to need dogs
6:08
Speaker 2: on this card. There's only two mid-tier fights. While they
6:11
Speaker 2: are pretty strong since they're both expected to finish, you're
6:14
Speaker 2: going to be having a dumpster dive in that low
6:15
Speaker 2: 7K range. And there is plenty of solid upside fighters. DeGlay, Silva.
6:22
Speaker 2: I mean, Nina and Nakamura are cheaper with still some upside.
6:27
Speaker 2: Elijah Smith, Waldo. So how much do you think you'll
6:30
Speaker 2: really get to bash at 9,600 if you had to guess?
6:33
Speaker 1: So I don't feel good about dogs on this card,
6:36
Speaker 1: but I think that there are a handful of dogs who,
6:39
Speaker 1: if they win, would score well. So I think I'm
6:41
Speaker 1: just kind of taking shots on that. I don't really
6:43
Speaker 1: think that they will win, but let's throw them into
6:44
Speaker 1: lineups just in case. And if they do, that gets
6:47
Speaker 1: me up to bashy. So I would imagine, I mean,
6:50
Speaker 1: I usually can afford $ 9, 600. It's whether I want to
6:54
Speaker 1: pay the $ 95 or $ 96 or $ 94, whoever's up there.
6:57
Speaker 1: And I like him more than Nina and I like
7:00
Speaker 1: him more than Coe. So I think I could probably
7:03
Speaker 1: get a decent amount of him. But I have to
7:05
Speaker 1: go and watch Calderon's fights and see how good this
7:08
Speaker 1: kid actually is. Kind of figure out how I think
7:10
Speaker 1: the fight plays out. But I just looked at this
7:13
Speaker 1: fight like 30 minutes ago.
7:16
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I mean, Bashy, I definitely like more. I
7:18
Speaker 2: do not like Ko. I like him more than Nina.
7:21
Speaker 2: I like him more than Nakamura. Just the wrestling upside,
7:23
Speaker 2: and it's supposed to finish at minus 260. Will lead
7:26
Speaker 2: me to jamming in Bashy and getting some underdogs, or
7:29
Speaker 2: trying to get some underdogs right in the right combination.
7:31
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card.
7:35
Speaker 2: We got Jose Sosa, minus 230. Johnny Parsons, plus 193.
7:39
Speaker 2: Minus 170 for this fight to finish. Sosa, plus 105
7:42
Speaker 2: inside the distance. Parsons, plus 100. 350. Good amount of
7:46
Speaker 2: line movement in this one. Sosa open minus 155. Got
7:50
Speaker 2: as low as it looks like minus 265 and then
7:54
Speaker 2: some buyback on the Parsons side, but good size favorite
7:58
Speaker 2: is Sosa. What are you doing in this one? 8,900
8:00
Speaker 2: and 7,300. This is the.
8:03
Speaker 1: One I want to target. I just think that it's
8:06
Speaker 1: going to be a fun striking match. Both guys want
8:08
Speaker 1: to strike. I think Parsons, we haven't seen Parsons in
8:11
Speaker 1: like three, three and a half years, so it's kind
8:13
Speaker 1: of difficult to know what to expect from him but
8:16
Speaker 1: he is a brawler who will come out aggressive and
8:18
Speaker 1: strike at a high pace and I think that could
8:21
Speaker 1: work for him or against him but either way I
8:24
Speaker 1: think it helps out DFS Souza is a striker as
8:27
Speaker 1: well I'd say he's more technical more um more dangerous
8:32
Speaker 1: long term uh but just the aggressiveness from Parsons I
8:36
Speaker 1: like that that first round danger from him so I
8:39
Speaker 1: think either way man we're gonna get a first round
8:41
Speaker 1: knockout from Parsons where he breaks the slate. Or if
8:45
Speaker 1: he doesn't get the first round knockout, I would imagine
8:47
Speaker 1: after three and a half years away from the sport,
8:49
Speaker 1: he starts to slow down, especially coming out aggressive. And
8:52
Speaker 1: I think Sousa can get a knockout of his own,
8:54
Speaker 1: but at $ 8, 900, um, I really not, I'm not high
8:58
Speaker 1: on his volume. I don't expect him to wrestle. So
9:01
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to be too late
9:03
Speaker 1: if it's not a first round finish for Sousa to
9:04
Speaker 1: get the knockout. But I do think that, um, Johnny
9:09
Speaker 1: Parsons' aggressiveness could also lead to a Sousa first-round knockout,
9:12
Speaker 1: and this could just be a good DFS fight to
9:14
Speaker 1: target either way. I'm going in on both sides, but
9:16
Speaker 1: I put Parsons as my preferred play because he is
9:19
Speaker 1: just the cheap dumpster dive that could get you up
9:22
Speaker 1: to a Bashy or whoever you want to.
9:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I see it similar. I am a little nervous
9:28
Speaker 2: that Parsons takes some steam. Just looking at who's priced
9:31
Speaker 2: around him, again, the lower tier is tough. I think
9:33
Speaker 2: he's going to be higher on than Fernandez, Raposo, Grant, Alacana.
9:38
Speaker 2: Money line's fine. Inside the distance is fine. I think
9:41
Speaker 2: people will see like when he was fighting. I mean,
9:43
Speaker 2: he's been away from the cage for a little while,
9:45
Speaker 2: like you said. When he did fight, though, high pace,
9:49
Speaker 2: definitely a finisher and can put up big scores when
9:51
Speaker 2: he wins. So I think that'll keep Sosa's ownership in
9:54
Speaker 2: check and maybe a little lower than most people think.
9:57
Speaker 2: And Parson maybe get a little seam. Sosa's running. one prop,
10:00
Speaker 2: plus 325. It's 23.5%. Definitely not great for his range,
10:05
Speaker 2: but at ownership, I do think he gets overlooked a bit.
10:08
Speaker 2: I'll probably end up a little overweight Sosa. You can
10:10
Speaker 2: use him in chalkier lineups. Parson's maybe around the field,
10:14
Speaker 2: maybe a little underweight if he does catch steam. mainly
10:17
Speaker 2: due to the Moneyline movement against him. But I do
10:19
Speaker 2: think if he wins, he has a lot higher ceiling
10:22
Speaker 2: than most of the other underdogs in his range. And
10:25
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong about the ownership steam, then I would
10:27
Speaker 2: definitely like Parsons more than I'm saying right now. So
10:30
Speaker 2: I do think a solid fight. I'll probably be hoping
10:33
Speaker 2: Sosa wins, but he will need a knockout in the
10:35
Speaker 2: first two rounds, more than likely to be optimal. All right,
10:38
Speaker 2: we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, we
10:40
Speaker 2: have Nina... I'm just going to say Nina M taking
10:46
Speaker 2: on Priscilla Cachoeira. Nina minus 5'10. Cachoeira plus 394. Minus
10:51
Speaker 2: 400 for this fight to finish. Nina minus 210 inside
10:54
Speaker 2: the distance. Cachoeira plus 400. Nina round one plus 150.
10:59
Speaker 2: So I guess that kind of just shows we talked
11:02
Speaker 2: about Bashu. We don't have inside the distance prop. Or
11:04
Speaker 2: we don't have his round one prop right now. But
11:07
Speaker 2: a 600 difference between Nina and Sosa. But plus 150
11:10
Speaker 2: versus plus 325. A decent bit difference in terms of
11:14
Speaker 2: the round one prop. Priscilla, bad takedown defense. Nina, probably
11:18
Speaker 2: better everywhere. I think she should wrestle early, though. Do
11:21
Speaker 2: you think she does that? And do you think she
11:22
Speaker 2: gets a submission if she can get her to the mat?
11:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think she can and really should get her
11:29
Speaker 1: a submission if she's able to get the fight to
11:31
Speaker 1: the ground. The only powers, I mean, the only advantages
11:34
Speaker 1: I give Cachoeira would be power and aggressiveness. She's one
11:38
Speaker 1: of those underdogs who could be a slate breaker if
11:41
Speaker 1: she were to win because it would probably be a
11:44
Speaker 1: first round TKO, but I'm just not relying on really
11:47
Speaker 1: women in general to get first round knockouts. But Cachoeira,
11:51
Speaker 1: I think her time has come to an end. This
11:53
Speaker 1: is a fight the UFC wants to showcase Mila. And
11:56
Speaker 1: I think she's better everywhere other than the power and aggressiveness.
12:00
Speaker 1: And after the first two, three minutes of this fight,
12:04
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be pretty easy for her.
12:06
Speaker 1: And if she can get the fight to the ground
12:07
Speaker 1: in the first minute, it's probably smooth sailing and she
12:10
Speaker 1: gets a submission at some point. I think she could
12:12
Speaker 1: get a ground and pound finish. I think if the
12:14
Speaker 1: fight were to get extended, she could even get maybe
12:16
Speaker 1: a TKO on the feet just because Cachoeira could be
12:20
Speaker 1: gassed and super sloppy at that point. I think her
12:23
Speaker 1: last knockout was like a knee to the body. It
12:26
Speaker 1: was pretty nice. I could see something like that happening too. But, yeah,
12:30
Speaker 1: for me, it's going to be Milosevic or pass. Usually,
12:33
Speaker 1: Catchware is somebody I'm interested in at $ 6, 700. But I
12:37
Speaker 1: think I'm just done playing Catchware at this point.
12:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't blame you. I initially wrote up that
12:43
Speaker 2: I was going to probably be overweight. And it really
12:46
Speaker 2: comes down to she's plus 394 money line and plus
12:49
Speaker 2: 400 inside the distance. That is just one book, though.
12:51
Speaker 2: Most other books, plus 600, plus 525, plus 650. So
12:56
Speaker 2: that's just the main book I look at. BetOnline is
12:58
Speaker 2: very bullish there. If she wins, she's probably going to
13:02
Speaker 2: be optimal, and she's probably going to be like 10%.
13:04
Speaker 2: So I don't know if X-ing her out, 50-plus teams,
13:07
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't do that. 20 or less, though, yeah,
13:10
Speaker 2: she probably loses. You probably just fade it and say
13:12
Speaker 2: 8% are paying the rake. I prefer Bashy over Nina,
13:16
Speaker 2: but I think the field will as well. And anyone
13:19
Speaker 2: that's plus 150 in round one, minus 210 inside the distance,
13:24
Speaker 2: I'm never going to say too many bad things about her.
13:26
Speaker 2: She's also taken a good bit of money. Opened minus 350,
13:30
Speaker 2: was minus 450 early in the week, now minus 510.
13:33
Speaker 2: She has a lot going for her for sure, just
13:35
Speaker 2: mainly the price tag. I'm glad this fight's back-to-back because
13:40
Speaker 2: I want you to compare this fight to the last.
13:42
Speaker 2: Kichiro Nakamura, excuse me, minus 360, taking on Ali Schmid,
13:48
Speaker 2: plus 291, minus 325 for this fight to finish. Nakamura
13:52
Speaker 2: minus 225 inside the distance. Schmidt plus 575 Nakamura around
13:57
Speaker 2: one plus one 50 minus 200 Nakamura open inside the
14:03
Speaker 2: distance now minus two 25. So yeah, I want you
14:05
Speaker 2: to compare. Can you hear that pounding by the way?
14:09
Speaker 1: Now that you mentioned, I might've heard something, but not
14:11
Speaker 1: anything that I would have noticed.
14:12
Speaker 2: All right. Minus. Yeah. So a little better inside the
14:16
Speaker 2: distance prop for Nakamura, 100 less, but a decent bit
14:19
Speaker 2: worse money line than Nina. So compare these two and,
14:23
Speaker 2: I see you have a three-star in both, so you
14:24
Speaker 2: might not even have that much of either.
14:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really don't have too much interest in this
14:29
Speaker 1: fight either. I just think that Schmidt isn't really a
14:33
Speaker 1: UFC caliber fighter. I think he could compete just at
14:37
Speaker 1: an at-range 15-minute striking battle. I think Schmidt is in play,
14:41
Speaker 1: but that probably doesn't even do us any good. In DFS,
14:45
Speaker 1: I think it would just take away from Nakamura. Nakamura
14:48
Speaker 1: is an exciting striker. He's quick. He's got fun knees.
14:51
Speaker 1: He's got a good left hand. But man, if you
14:53
Speaker 1: watch this guy fight, it's like he's got a little
14:55
Speaker 1: nub for a right hand. He just throws it out
14:57
Speaker 1: there as just a little as just a distraction, basically.
15:01
Speaker 1: But it is doing absolutely nothing. So he's just got
15:04
Speaker 1: a left hand and then two legs that you got
15:07
Speaker 1: to worry about. Eventually, that's going to catch up to
15:09
Speaker 1: him and UFC fighters are going to are going to
15:11
Speaker 1: make him pay. But Schmidt's not that guy. I think
15:14
Speaker 1: I just want to look at Nakamura as let me
15:17
Speaker 1: fade him when he's expensive at ninety four hundred dollars.
15:20
Speaker 1: He kind of needs a first round knockout. He's coming off,
15:22
Speaker 1: I think, a third-round knockout. Had a knockdown, and he
15:26
Speaker 1: scored like 70-something points, like 73 points. I'm not interested
15:32
Speaker 1: in that at $ 9, 400. I think the first-round knockout's in play.
15:37
Speaker 1: It doesn't lock him on the optimal, though, so I
15:40
Speaker 1: think I'm just going to pass on Nakamura with limited lineups.
15:44
Speaker 1: I'd be more interested if I was doing MME. Same
15:47
Speaker 1: with Schmidt. Maybe I'd be interested if I was doing
15:49
Speaker 1: 150 lineups, but I'm just going to X out Schmidt.
15:53
Speaker 1: And then Nakamura would just be one of those types,
15:55
Speaker 1: like a sixth in my lineup. If I am starting
15:57
Speaker 1: with underdogs and I just got money to spend, I'd
15:59
Speaker 1: be okay with Nakamura. But the more I talk about it,
16:02
Speaker 1: the less I like it. And it's the minus three
16:04
Speaker 1: 25 inside the distance that sold me on the three star.
16:07
Speaker 1: I think this is more of a two star, uh,
16:09
Speaker 1: in my mind. Uh, cause I'm just not sold on Nakamura, dude.
16:12
Speaker 1: If he, like, if I were to fight Nakamura, I
16:14
Speaker 1: don't think he can knock me out with that, that
16:15
Speaker 1: right hand he's got. So I just think that, I'm
16:19
Speaker 1: a long-term Nakamura fate if he's going to be 9K +.
16:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wrote this up, too. I just think
16:25
Speaker 2: Ali Schmidt's that bad. He stepped in on short notice,
16:28
Speaker 2: I believe, against Rahiki or something, and that's why they
16:31
Speaker 2: gave him a guaranteed second fight, got knocked out in
16:34
Speaker 2: the first. So I don't think Schmidt's very good, and
16:36
Speaker 2: I don't know how much we're going to see Nakamura
16:38
Speaker 2: over minus 300 in the UFC. I think it's mainly matchup.
16:41
Speaker 2: Plus 150 in round one, though, is 40%. Now, at 9,400,
16:46
Speaker 2: maybe not all first-round wins will be optimal. But if
16:49
Speaker 2: you know you're going to first-round finish, and I do
16:51
Speaker 2: think Nakamura is probably somewhere around 20% at 9,400. He's
16:56
Speaker 2: in a loaded range. I mean, if he's 20% and
16:59
Speaker 2: his round one win equity is 40%, just naturally I
17:03
Speaker 2: think I'll have to end up slightly overweight and it
17:06
Speaker 2: allows me to get different elsewhere. But I don't love
17:09
Speaker 2: lineups that leave 200 and could get up to Bashy.
17:12
Speaker 2: It's a little concerning for me because in a vacuum,
17:15
Speaker 2: I like Bashy quite a bit more, but it's still MMA.
17:18
Speaker 2: I could totally be wrong. Bashy could get a submission
17:20
Speaker 2: in a minute and four seconds after one takedown, which
17:24
Speaker 2: is the nut low outcome. And then all of these
17:26
Speaker 2: guys beat them. So yeah. Any final thoughts? Yeah.
17:29
Speaker 1: You asked me to compare that in the Milosevic fight.
17:31
Speaker 1: I like the girls on both sides actually more. Cause
17:34
Speaker 1: I would imagine Nakamura being a hundred cheaper catches a
17:37
Speaker 1: little bit more ownership. So I like paying that extra
17:40
Speaker 1: a hundred dollars just for less ownership. And then catch.
17:42
Speaker 2: What if I told you it wouldn't, what if I
17:44
Speaker 2: told you it wouldn't? Cause I don't, I'm not quite,
17:46
Speaker 2: quite sure since. Nina's minus 510 money line and Nakamura's
17:50
Speaker 2: minus 315. I think that'll sway people.
17:54
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, if it were even, I would still
17:57
Speaker 1: like Nina. But, yeah, I would think ownership would be
18:02
Speaker 1: what sways me the most. I just like bashing more
18:04
Speaker 1: than both of them. Yeah, I definitely like bashing more, too.
18:07
Speaker 1: And you said Priscilla over Ali Schmidt if picking a dog. Yeah,
18:10
Speaker 1: just because she's cheaper. And I think, like, pound for pound,
18:14
Speaker 1: she probably has more of a first-round knockout chance.
18:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that for sure. All right, let's
18:19
Speaker 2: keep it rolling. Two mid-tier fights. This is the closest priced.
18:23
Speaker 2: And you can notice the 200 cheaper fighter in Jose Delano,
18:25
Speaker 2: now the favorite, minus 118. Murtali Magomedov, plus 101, minus
18:31
Speaker 2: 150 for this fight to finish. The slight underdog in Magomedov,
18:34
Speaker 2: plus 170 inside the distance. Delano, plus 235. Looking at
18:40
Speaker 2: where this line went. Delano opened plus 157, now minus 118, which...
18:45
Speaker 2: It's a decent bit of money, and especially just first looks.
18:48
Speaker 2: Anyone that ends in OV, Magomedov and undefeated at 11-0,
18:53
Speaker 2: now the dog. I think that shows people like this
18:56
Speaker 2: Delano guy, or they absolutely think Magomedov's a fraud. Could
19:00
Speaker 2: be a combination of both. Regardless, I'm going to be
19:02
Speaker 2: playing this fight, and I see you are as well
19:04
Speaker 2: with the five-star. 8,200, 8K is a great price, but
19:07
Speaker 2: break it down.
19:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, my favorite fight on the card from a watching purpose.
19:12
Speaker 1: I don't know about DFS purpose, but from a watching
19:15
Speaker 1: purpose and a prospect purpose, they're putting two solid prospects
19:19
Speaker 1: against each other where it's kind of a shame that
19:21
Speaker 1: one of them has to take a loss, but it's
19:23
Speaker 1: also cool that we get to see how good the
19:25
Speaker 1: winner is. But yeah, I give the slight edge, especially DFS-wise,
19:30
Speaker 1: to Magomedov. He is the more explosive striker. He's got
19:35
Speaker 1: some solid knees. He'll blitz in with some combos, with
19:37
Speaker 1: some strikes. But just explosiveness would be his only striking edge.
19:42
Speaker 1: I think Delano is the better overall striker, but Magomedov
19:45
Speaker 1: is the better wrestler the more aggressive wrestler and I
19:50
Speaker 1: think if anyone were to dominate this fight in round
19:53
Speaker 1: one I think it's Magomedov after round one I think
19:58
Speaker 1: it could maybe shift more into Delano's favor but DFS
20:02
Speaker 1: that might not help us as much so I do
20:04
Speaker 1: like Magomedov as a preferred play And he is the
20:07
Speaker 1: reason I have it as a five-star. I also think
20:10
Speaker 1: his aggression could help out Delano. But I think Delano's
20:13
Speaker 1: the more experienced, more well-rounded fighter. And Magomedov's just the
20:17
Speaker 1: more aggressive, more explosive, more dangerous fighter early who has
20:21
Speaker 1: the higher ceiling in DFS. And if he's the underdog
20:26
Speaker 1: at $ 8, 200, that probably hurts his ownership just a little bit.
20:29
Speaker 1: I mean, and in a fight people are going to
20:31
Speaker 1: be excited about, he'll still be high-owned. But if it
20:33
Speaker 1: takes him down 7%, 8% from what it would have
20:36
Speaker 1: if he were the favorite, I'm cool with that. So
20:38
Speaker 1: Magomedov is going to be one of my highest on plays.
20:41
Speaker 2: I love it. Everything you said I agree with. I
20:44
Speaker 2: think the upside on Magomedov is greater. He's 200 and
20:47
Speaker 2: more as a slight underdog. So I'm hoping ownership reflects
20:50
Speaker 2: that or at least is very similar. I think, yeah,
20:53
Speaker 2: there's paths where Delano wins and isn't optimal as a
20:55
Speaker 2: striker having to fight off takedowns, whereas it's harder for
20:59
Speaker 2: me to see Magomedov winning and not being optimal. Better
21:02
Speaker 2: inside the distance prop, better round one prop. If someone
21:05
Speaker 2: were to win by submission, which by any method of finish,
21:09
Speaker 2: Delano or Magomedov, Magomedov by subs the best at plus 275,
21:14
Speaker 2: whereas knockout plus 400 Delano, plus 700 by sub for Delano,
21:19
Speaker 2: plus 525 by KO for Magomedov. So I agree with
21:22
Speaker 2: everything you said. If someone's going to dominate it, Magomedov.
21:26
Speaker 2: If someone's going to look minus 1,000, I think it's
21:29
Speaker 2: more likely Magomedov that looks that Then I do Delano.
21:32
Speaker 2: So we're on the same side there. Magomedo is my
21:34
Speaker 2: preferred play. We'll have some Delano, though, obviously. 8K, and
21:38
Speaker 2: this fight's minus 150 to finish. All right, we'll keep
21:41
Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight on the card, we have... Let
21:46
Speaker 2: me scroll up quick, sorry. Marcus Digle, minus 232, taking
21:50
Speaker 2: on Mitch Raposo, plus 194. Minus 130 for this fight
21:53
Speaker 2: to finish. Digle, plus 140 inside the distance. Raposo, plus 375.
21:59
Speaker 2: Talking props, we have DeGlay by KO plus 285, him
22:03
Speaker 2: by sub plus 450, and he opened plus 525 by sub.
22:08
Speaker 2: So some people interested in the submission prop. It looks
22:11
Speaker 2: like the biggest gap probably. Like Raposo's a striker, so
22:15
Speaker 2: I guess where he could look as the biggest favorite
22:17
Speaker 2: is on the mat. Not sure it plays out there
22:20
Speaker 2: as much as I'd want at 9K, but I also
22:22
Speaker 2: think ownership will be relatively low. Break down this fight
22:25
Speaker 2: and how do these two compare to others in the range?
22:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really don't care too much for this fight.
22:31
Speaker 1: It's really favor or pass for me. I think Raposo
22:34
Speaker 1: is just, like, okay at everything. Like, I don't even
22:37
Speaker 1: know if he is a striker. Like, I think the
22:38
Speaker 1: best he's looked was with his wrestling, but that was
22:41
Speaker 1: just one fight. And he might have even lost that fight.
22:45
Speaker 1: I think the fights he's won, he probably should have
22:47
Speaker 1: lost also. He's just a low-volume striker who's not very dangerous,
22:51
Speaker 1: and he can wrestle a little bit, but he's not
22:54
Speaker 1: very dangerous on the ground either. So I'm going to
22:56
Speaker 1: X out Raposo. Hope these other high ceiling underdogs come
23:00
Speaker 1: through instead. And Degley's the side for me. I think
23:04
Speaker 1: he's just better everywhere. I think he's the more slicker,
23:06
Speaker 1: more dangerous striker. I think he's the better wrestler, more
23:10
Speaker 1: dangerous grappler. He's just got less experience. He's making the
23:13
Speaker 1: UFC walk for the first time. Who knows what that'll
23:16
Speaker 1: do to him. But I agree with this line. If not,
23:19
Speaker 1: I think it's too low. I mean, just watching these
23:22
Speaker 1: guys skill for skill, I would, rather bet the favorite
23:26
Speaker 1: over betting the underdog in this fight. So it's going
23:28
Speaker 1: to be Degler pass for me. I just don't know
23:30
Speaker 1: how much he scores. I don't really trust him to
23:33
Speaker 1: be super high volume. I don't think that he wrestles
23:37
Speaker 1: a bunch. So I kind of think he might be
23:39
Speaker 1: finished or bust at 9K. So I'd probably take that
23:42
Speaker 1: into account when I start building.
23:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, which plus 140 is 41%, but by no means
23:47
Speaker 2: is all of his wins or finished wins going to
23:50
Speaker 2: be optimal. Over two and a half, slightly favored at
23:52
Speaker 2: minus 125. If this fight gets out of the first
23:56
Speaker 2: two rounds, it's a little harder at 9K to get there,
23:58
Speaker 2: unless he is wrestling heavy, which there's always an out
24:01
Speaker 2: or just absolutely beating the brakes off of him. But
24:04
Speaker 2: Raposo goes to decision. That's pretty common for him. So
24:07
Speaker 2: I think more than likely this fight busts and Digle
24:10
Speaker 2: wins the decision. But ownership will be relatively low on
24:13
Speaker 2: both sides. Next fight on the card, first of two
24:18
Speaker 2: fights expected to go the distance. Karina Silva, minus 228.
24:22
Speaker 2: Gabriel Fernandez, plus 191. Plus 120 for this fight to finish.
24:26
Speaker 2: Silva plus 185 inside the distance. Fernandez plus 475. I mean,
24:32
Speaker 2: another one where the biggest gap is if Silva gets
24:34
Speaker 2: it on the mat. Fernandez is a striker. Silva can
24:37
Speaker 2: wrestle a solid grappler. It doesn't look great on the stone,
24:42
Speaker 2: but I mean, man, if you're Silva, you just come out,
24:44
Speaker 2: shoot a takedown within the first minute, and then from
24:47
Speaker 2: there can set everything up. So I'm going to have
24:49
Speaker 2: some 8,800, also 100 more than Waldo. And spoiler alert,
24:55
Speaker 2: I am on the Johnny Walker side, so I'm looking
24:58
Speaker 2: for pivots in that Waldo range. So, yeah, I'm naturally
25:01
Speaker 2: going to have a good amount of Silva, I think.
25:03
Speaker 2: Plus 185 inside the distance, should wrestle, pretty low ownership.
25:07
Speaker 2: Are you on the same page?
25:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I do like Silva. I just think she's
25:12
Speaker 1: the more dangerous fighter really everywhere. I think she's even
25:15
Speaker 1: the more dangerous striker in this one. But I think
25:19
Speaker 1: the path to victory for Fernandez would just be to
25:22
Speaker 1: point fight for 15 minutes. I think she's a live
25:25
Speaker 1: underdog at 7,400, but she's more playing for like 60
25:29
Speaker 1: to 80 points, where these other underdogs who we have
25:32
Speaker 1: talked about and we'll talk about, maybe less live to win,
25:36
Speaker 1: but way more live to score 100-plus points if they
25:40
Speaker 1: do win. So that's more what I'm targeting rather than
25:42
Speaker 1: the live and scoring 10x or less. So I'm not
25:45
Speaker 1: going to be too high on Fernandez. If I got
25:47
Speaker 1: to her, it would be because I'm making a lineup
25:49
Speaker 1: I really love it in the sixth spot shows 7,400
25:52
Speaker 1: or less. And I just click on her for that reason.
25:55
Speaker 1: That'd be the only way I click on her. But
25:58
Speaker 1: I think Silva does have a big edge. Once this
26:00
Speaker 1: fight gets to the ground, I just don't trust her
26:02
Speaker 1: to wrestle. I trust her to be a good, dangerous grappler.
26:06
Speaker 1: I just don't trust her to wrestle, to get it
26:08
Speaker 1: to the ground where she needs to get to grapple. So, um,
26:12
Speaker 1: at $ 8, 800, I'm not going to be too heavy on her,
26:14
Speaker 1: but I definitely wouldn't be X-ing out a fighter like Silva.
26:16
Speaker 1: She's allowed for submission in any round. but at 8,800,
26:19
Speaker 1: I would imagine we need it in the first or
26:21
Speaker 1: second round. Cause I don't think that she is a
26:25
Speaker 1: rinse and repeat type of a wrestler at all.
26:30
Speaker 2: You're muted donkey. Sorry. I was, I was messing with
26:34
Speaker 2: the slate station over here. Cause I initially didn't have
26:38
Speaker 2: really any Fernandez love, but the more I'm looking at it, like,
26:42
Speaker 2: I don't like too many dogs down below. Like why
26:44
Speaker 2: should I like Priscilla catch away or Ali Schmidt more
26:47
Speaker 2: than Fernandez? Like, plus, 186 money lines actually solid and
26:51
Speaker 2: if i think 70 could be enough in a win
26:54
Speaker 2: i think it's just foolish and especially because there's only
26:56
Speaker 2: two fights expected to go to decision if this is
27:00
Speaker 2: just on the feet fernandez lands 90 significant strikes or
27:03
Speaker 2: whatever in the law scores 38 that could be enough
27:07
Speaker 2: especially with so many favorites wins so i don't think
27:09
Speaker 2: priscilla has a floor ollie has a floor maybe i'm
27:13
Speaker 2: i think i'm going to move some of that ownership
27:14
Speaker 2: to fernandez as a floor play so I'm fine with
27:18
Speaker 2: this fight. Silva's still my preferred play since I think
27:20
Speaker 2: she has 100-plus point upside when not many are going
27:23
Speaker 2: to see it that way. But I'm going to give
27:25
Speaker 2: her more Fernandez than I initially thought as a floor 7,400 play.
27:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I like her more than Raposo. I
27:32
Speaker 1: like her more than Schmidt. I like her more than Cachoeira.
27:35
Speaker 1: And then going forward, I like her more than probably
27:38
Speaker 1: Elencona and Terman. But that's about it for the underdog.
27:42
Speaker 2: Okay. Yep, sounds good. We'll keep it moving. I will
27:45
Speaker 2: update that. Right now, when you talk about this next fight,
27:50
Speaker 2: we are going to the second of two mid-tier fights.
27:53
Speaker 2: Thomas Peterson minus 171. Gabriel Lorenzo plus 145. Minus 200
27:58
Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Peterson plus 140 inside the distance.
28:02
Speaker 2: Lorenzo plus 210. A lot of line movement on this one, too.
28:06
Speaker 2: Multiple things. Thomas Peterson open plus 193. Man, let's see when.
28:13
Speaker 2: Shortly after was plus 132. Shortly after that was minus 133.
28:18
Speaker 2: The line did not last long at all. So plus
28:20
Speaker 2: 193 and took money pretty close to right after it opened.
28:27
Speaker 2: And then on the inside the distance line, open minus
28:30
Speaker 2: 130 to finish, now minus 200. Peterson and the under
28:35
Speaker 2: has taken a lot. But then you go and look
28:37
Speaker 2: at round one props. Oh, I guess it flipped. When
28:41
Speaker 2: I did it earlier, Lorenzo had a better round one
28:43
Speaker 2: prop than Peterson, but that is sense flip, plus 400
28:47
Speaker 2: for Thomas, plus 500 for Lorenzo. I'll let you break
28:51
Speaker 2: it down. Tough for me to fade this line movement,
28:53
Speaker 2: I think, though.
28:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a good DFS fight because it
28:56
Speaker 1: kind of should be wrestler versus striker. Maybe late in
29:01
Speaker 1: this fight, Peterson could look like more of a striker,
29:04
Speaker 1: but I think Lorenzo's best path to victory would just
29:08
Speaker 1: be to keep it on the feet, keep the fight
29:09
Speaker 1: at range. but more so get a first-round knockout because
29:13
Speaker 1: I just don't trust his cardio, and I also don't
29:15
Speaker 1: trust his ability to keep the fight standing if Peterson
29:18
Speaker 1: is looking to wrestle, which he should be. If Peterson
29:22
Speaker 1: can land takedowns, I just don't think that Larenko has
29:26
Speaker 1: anything to offer off of his back, and I think
29:27
Speaker 1: Peterson can grind out minutes for however long he needs to,
29:32
Speaker 1: or I think he's live for a ground-and-pound finish at
29:34
Speaker 1: some point. So I like a big score from either
29:37
Speaker 1: side of this one. I even thought about putting this
29:39
Speaker 1: as a five. star just because of style for style.
29:43
Speaker 1: But I mean, just Peterson in general as a favorite,
29:47
Speaker 1: I just don't think he's a good fighter. I wouldn't
29:48
Speaker 1: really want a five star Peterson fight. So I think
29:51
Speaker 1: four star seems more right, more right. But it is
29:54
Speaker 1: a fight I want to be overweight to. And I
29:57
Speaker 1: really don't have too much of a preference. I put
29:59
Speaker 1: Peterson as my preferred fighter because I think he wrestles
30:02
Speaker 1: and I'm picking him to win. But I don't feel
30:05
Speaker 1: good about it. And Lorenko could knock him out in
30:07
Speaker 1: the first round. So I like Lorenko as one of
30:09
Speaker 1: those high ceiling underdogs. He's a little bit more expensive
30:12
Speaker 1: than the other ones. But this is a fight I
30:15
Speaker 1: just plan on targeting, looking to have in, I'd say,
30:18
Speaker 1: the majority of my lineups.
30:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a five-star fight for me, I think.
30:24
Speaker 2: Peterson with the wrestler, Lorenko... With the round one equity,
30:28
Speaker 2: he fades as the fight goes. Larenco, Lorenzo, whatever it is,
30:32
Speaker 2: him early, which would score well at 7,800, or Peterson
30:35
Speaker 2: in the middle rounds or late, or even decision at 8,400
30:39
Speaker 2: through wrestling. But I'd be surprised if Larenco can survive
30:43
Speaker 2: 15 minutes if Peterson is getting takedowns. Yeah, great fight
30:46
Speaker 2: to target. And yeah, I prefer Peterson, mainly because of
30:52
Speaker 2: the line movement, because he's the wrestler. I am worried, though,
30:55
Speaker 2: about ownership. I'm hoping the 600's enough where it's pretty
30:59
Speaker 2: similar since dogs are uncomfy on this card. Larenko feels
31:02
Speaker 2: better than most. And if that's the case, again, I
31:05
Speaker 2: like Peterson even more, but it makes sense. Larenko is
31:08
Speaker 2: probably the most upside behind Johnny Walker in the 7K range.
31:13
Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card.
31:15
Speaker 2: Another big favorite, Matas Contra Vicious taking on Andre Petroski.
31:22
Speaker 2: We have... Let me find it right here. Petroski. Where
31:28
Speaker 2: the heck? Oh, there it is. Montas minus 300. Petroski
31:31
Speaker 2: plus 247. Minus 500 for this fight to finish. Montas
31:36
Speaker 2: minus 240 inside the distance. Petroski plus 400. Montas in
31:40
Speaker 2: round one, minus 125. This one is pretty clear. Montas
31:45
Speaker 2: by KO, minus 225. Montas by sub, plus 1400. Petroski
31:47
Speaker 2: by KO, plus 1200. Petroski by sub, plus 575. No
31:57
Speaker 2: chin Petroski taking on the striker, but it's pretty clear
32:01
Speaker 2: Montez only loss came by submission. Can Petroski get takedowns
32:05
Speaker 2: and wrestle or is he going to get knocked out?
32:08
Speaker 1: I think he gets knocked out. So I'm going to
32:11
Speaker 1: be on Montez here, but it is a binary matchup
32:14
Speaker 1: where Montez needs to strike. And if he does, he's
32:16
Speaker 1: probably going to get a knockout because he's just that
32:18
Speaker 1: far that much better than Petroski. But yeah, Petroski is
32:23
Speaker 1: not going to be looking to strike. And if he
32:25
Speaker 1: can land takedowns, he could either grind out top control
32:28
Speaker 1: time or lock up a submission. And at $ 6, 900, that's
32:31
Speaker 1: hard to pass up just that path to victory in general.
32:33
Speaker 1: So five-star fight for me. I like both sides of it.
32:38
Speaker 1: I am going to be on the favorite, but I'm
32:41
Speaker 1: not going to make a rule for a hundred percent,
32:42
Speaker 1: but it is one of those where I'm looking through
32:44
Speaker 1: my lineups, making sure that I see Montas. And if
32:47
Speaker 1: I don't, I kind of do want to see Petroski.
32:49
Speaker 1: And if I, if I don't see either of them,
32:51
Speaker 1: I'm going to make sure, that I'm looking at that
32:53
Speaker 1: lineup thinking, damn, does this make sense? Can this lineup win?
32:57
Speaker 1: And if I still like it, I'll keep it there.
32:59
Speaker 1: But that's kind of what I do with NFL lineups. Like, well,
33:01
Speaker 1: there's no stack here. Do I still like this type
33:03
Speaker 1: of thing? The lineup still has to make sense. But
33:06
Speaker 1: this is one where I would say this is my
33:08
Speaker 1: favorite fight on the entire card.
33:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you can't argue that. Put these odds
33:13
Speaker 2: up on Tuesday. Minus 400 to finish Tuesday. Now minus 500.
33:15
Speaker 2: Montas minus 275. Now minus 300. Montas and the undertaken money.
33:23
Speaker 2: With that said though, Petroski is definitely my favorite 6k
33:26
Speaker 2: fighter and one of my favorites in the lower tier,
33:28
Speaker 2: like plus two 47 money lines, not bad. Montas is
33:31
Speaker 2: going to get money. Almost all Petroski's wins should be optimal.
33:36
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with you. I wouldn't have a
33:37
Speaker 2: hundred percent just because the path is Montas wins in
33:41
Speaker 2: round two or something scores 95 and just others in
33:44
Speaker 2: the upper tier outscore them. It's hard to see Petroski
33:47
Speaker 2: winning and not being optimal. So. Let me just look.
33:49
Speaker 2: Plus 247 money line, 28.8%. Pretty much telling me I
33:55
Speaker 2: want at least 30% Petrovsky. And that's definitely going to
33:58
Speaker 2: be above the field. So, yeah, I guess he's one
34:00
Speaker 2: of my favorite plays on the slate. I like Montas
34:03
Speaker 2: quite a bit as well. Any bashy team, any co-team
34:06
Speaker 2: can go down to Montas and leave 400. He has
34:09
Speaker 2: as much upside as anyone at minus 125 in round one.
34:14
Speaker 2: What's up, Anthony? Great to see you. Joe Koldeman here. Yeah,
34:18
Speaker 2: I answered that in chat. Not really sure yet, but
34:21
Speaker 2: I'm glad we did get that news right away. I
34:23
Speaker 2: was hoping he would sit, though. Marquis, great to see you.
34:26
Speaker 2: I'm excited to see the grand fight. Hey, that's going
34:29
Speaker 2: to come up in a little bit. I like Davey Grant, too.
34:33
Speaker 2: 40 years old, Davey Grant still getting the job done.
34:35
Speaker 2: Curious to hear Big Marley's take on that one. But first,
34:38
Speaker 2: we got Lucas Fernando taking on Billy Alicante. Fernando minus 336.
34:42
Speaker 2: Alicante plus 273. Minus 170 for this fight to finish. Fernando,
34:47
Speaker 2: minus 105 inside the distance. Alicante, plus 400. I'm curious
34:51
Speaker 2: to hear your breakdown, but the main thing, like I
34:54
Speaker 2: look at Deagley, 9K, and Elijah Smith, who we haven't
34:59
Speaker 2: talked about yet, but soon, 9,100. Like all three of these, Fernando, Smith,
35:04
Speaker 2: and Deagley, look like similar plays to me. I think
35:06
Speaker 2: ownership will be relatively similar. I'm curious to hear if
35:09
Speaker 2: you have like a strong ranking between them, and then, yeah,
35:12
Speaker 2: what are you going to do with Alicante in this one?
35:17
Speaker 1: Well, let me break down this fight, and then let's
35:18
Speaker 1: bring the rankings back up. I wasn't listening very well.
35:22
Speaker 1: I like Fernando in this fight. I think that he's
35:26
Speaker 1: just a way better, more dangerous striker. I like his
35:29
Speaker 1: leg kicks. I think he can wear down El Cana,
35:32
Speaker 1: then land some powerful shots and win by TKO here.
35:36
Speaker 1: But at $ 9, 200, I do think he kind of needs
35:39
Speaker 1: to win by TKO because I don't expect him to
35:41
Speaker 1: be super high volume. And I think El Cana would
35:43
Speaker 1: be the... more dangerous grappler of the two. If the
35:46
Speaker 1: fight were to hit the mat, um, that would put
35:49
Speaker 1: Ella kind of as in play to win. I just don't,
35:52
Speaker 1: he's another guy. I just don't think he's very good.
35:54
Speaker 1: I don't know that he's even UFC caliber. Uh, so
35:56
Speaker 1: I'm picking Fernando to win by knockout. That's why I
35:59
Speaker 1: like him, but it is kind of like, uh, where
36:01
Speaker 1: I would want to cap it at his first round
36:03
Speaker 1: knockout odds, because I don't know that a second round
36:06
Speaker 1: knockout would even get him there, especially if he were
36:08
Speaker 1: to drop the first, uh, like laying on his back.
36:11
Speaker 1: If Ellen kind of were to get a takedown early, uh,
36:14
Speaker 1: So I expect a lower volume from Fernando, but I
36:16
Speaker 1: think those shots will count when, when he is landing them.
36:21
Speaker 2: Makes sense. I don't really have too much of a take.
36:23
Speaker 2: Oh yeah. Ranking Fernando, Elijah Smith, Deagley.
36:28
Speaker 1: Oh man. Um, gosh.
36:32
Speaker 2: Yeah.
36:33
Speaker 1: I don't know. Um, I'm probably just going to be
36:35
Speaker 1: mixing them out. Imagine them once I'm done making lineups,
36:38
Speaker 1: they're all going to be pretty close. Um, So for
36:41
Speaker 1: that reason, I'll go the cheapest one.
36:43
Speaker 2: I like the most.
36:45
Speaker 1: Who would that be?
36:46
Speaker 2: DeGlay. All right. I'd be okay with that.
36:48
Speaker 1: Either the cheapest or if ownership were, if there were
36:53
Speaker 1: a big gap in ownership, I'd be cool with that too.
36:55
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I don't think there's going to be too
36:57
Speaker 2: big of a gap. I think the 92 to nine
36:59
Speaker 2: or to nine K, it looks very similar for a
37:02
Speaker 2: lot of them. And you could even add Sosa. I
37:05
Speaker 2: think he's pretty similar to those guys as well. I
37:08
Speaker 2: do think Parsons will be the highest owned. If you're
37:10
Speaker 2: talking about all three of those dogs that compared to Parsons. So, yeah,
37:14
Speaker 2: that's why it's definitely a way better MME card than
37:16
Speaker 2: single entry. I say that every single week, though, partly
37:19
Speaker 2: just because I'm bad at single entry. But, yeah, very
37:22
Speaker 2: similar plays in the upper tier in that low 9K range.
37:26
Speaker 2: All right. Four fights left. Biggest favorites and highest priced
37:29
Speaker 2: fighter on the card. Sung, or let me make sure
37:33
Speaker 2: it's Siak Hong Ko. I definitely butchered it, but something
37:37
Speaker 2: Coe minus 700, taking on Wellington Turman, plus 500. Minus
37:41
Speaker 2: 115 for this fight to finish. Coe plus 110 inside
37:44
Speaker 2: the distance. Turman plus 750. Coe round one plus 275.
37:49
Speaker 2: Anytime you're 9,700 and a striker and not expected to
37:53
Speaker 2: finish the fight, you are not going to have much
37:55
Speaker 2: interest for me. And Turman, we haven't seen him in
37:58
Speaker 2: a while. He's cheeks. I mean, yeah, this is pretty
38:02
Speaker 2: easy for me. Fade. is how I see it. And
38:04
Speaker 2: I'm hoping co wins a decision. Yeah.
38:07
Speaker 1: I'm a, well, I would say co is a wrestler
38:11
Speaker 1: for the most part. He, in his first two fights,
38:13
Speaker 1: he landed 10 takedowns total. Uh, and he had 23
38:19
Speaker 1: minutes of top control. So I think that's a perfect path.
38:22
Speaker 1: You think he'll do that against Terman? Cause Terman's just
38:25
Speaker 1: a grappler.
38:26
Speaker 2: All right.
38:27
Speaker 1: Uh, I think Terman could, could kind of point fight
38:29
Speaker 1: with them too, but, um, Coe's just going to be
38:32
Speaker 1: the better wrestler, going to be the more powerful striker.
38:35
Speaker 1: The $ 9, 700 takes me away from it, though, because even
38:38
Speaker 1: in those two wrestling-based wins where he completely dominated with wrestling,
38:42
Speaker 1: he only scored 101 and 105. And at $ 9, 700, that's
38:47
Speaker 1: probably not going to cut it. He's getting a washed
38:50
Speaker 1: tournament who we haven't seen in a while, but I
38:52
Speaker 1: just think that this is a fight for Coe to win.
38:56
Speaker 1: And he probably scores 100 points and just doesn't make
38:58
Speaker 1: the optimal lineup. So give me Bashy instead. Give me
39:01
Speaker 1: Montez instead. Fernando, any of those guys. I'd be fine
39:05
Speaker 1: just dropping from Coe to them and saving salary. So
39:08
Speaker 1: I'd probably X out both sides of this fight. Maybe
39:10
Speaker 1: I'd make it a one-star. Not even sure why I
39:12
Speaker 1: started at three stars.
39:14
Speaker 2: It's a one-star for me. My least favorite on the card.
39:17
Speaker 2: Two targets. All right, we got three fights left. Let
39:20
Speaker 2: me head on over to our Shippen Nation homepage. See
39:23
Speaker 2: Plans and Pricing. as you can see all the sports
39:26
Speaker 2: going on right now, NFL, college football, NBA, PGA, MMA, NASCAR,
39:31
Speaker 2: and NHL. Best time of the year for sure when
39:33
Speaker 2: we're talking DFS. So I do think it's a great
39:36
Speaker 2: time to get into the Core 100 or Starter package.
39:39
Speaker 2: You can build 100 teams with the Starter, I think,
39:43
Speaker 2: or with the Core, excuse me. Starter, you can build
39:45
Speaker 2: 500 teams. Then you get Saverson's projections and ownership as well.
39:49
Speaker 2: to average ours out. You also get portfolio diversification, contest
39:53
Speaker 2: flashback to see what the pros are doing. And, oh yeah,
39:57
Speaker 2: I already mentioned the ownership for both sites, which is
40:01
Speaker 2: very important. I think having two sets and being able
40:03
Speaker 2: to take the average is something that is worth doing
40:06
Speaker 2: if you have the ability to. Ultimate, it's a lot more,
40:09
Speaker 2: but if you're playing a couple hundred dollars a night,
40:12
Speaker 2: running contest sims, that is what you are seeing most
40:14
Speaker 2: of the best players in the world doing nowadays you
40:17
Speaker 2: also can build 5 000 teams you get sim rois
40:21
Speaker 2: uh and yeah they run simulations hundreds of thousands of
40:24
Speaker 2: times uh definitely cool and a very powerful tool to
40:27
Speaker 2: try out if you are heavy and playing a lot
40:30
Speaker 2: of money in dfs we also do have single sport
40:32
Speaker 2: packages down below mma monthly only gets cheaper with annual
40:36
Speaker 2: you can see sabersim add-ons as well we would love
40:40
Speaker 2: to have you and yeah i don't know how many
40:42
Speaker 2: it's been being marley like 10 straight weeks it feels
40:44
Speaker 2: like for mma though I think we have a break.
40:47
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving is the next one. And then the end of
40:50
Speaker 2: the year, like always. Three fights left. Yeah, the fight that,
40:56
Speaker 2: who was it? Marquis wanted to see, Davey Grant. Elijah
40:59
Speaker 2: Smith taking on Davey Grant. Smith, minus 310. Davey, plus 254.
41:04
Speaker 2: Minus 150 for this fight to finish. Smith, plus 115
41:07
Speaker 2: inside the distance. Davey, plus 380. Smith, round one, plus 300.
41:13
Speaker 2: Take it away. What do you see in this one?
41:17
Speaker 1: I think it's just going to be a good fight.
41:18
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to this one from a DFS perspective
41:21
Speaker 1: and from a watching perspective. I think we have a
41:25
Speaker 1: talented athletic prospect with Smith, who is a good wrestler.
41:29
Speaker 1: He's got not a solid knockout power as well against
41:34
Speaker 1: a veteran and grant who was 40 years old, was
41:39
Speaker 1: 17 years older, but seems to be in the prime
41:43
Speaker 1: of his career somehow. And, Usually, if you see a
41:46
Speaker 1: 17 age difference, you would think that the younger guy
41:52
Speaker 1: would have the better cardio. But this is one where
41:54
Speaker 1: I feel like I like Smith early in this fight.
41:56
Speaker 1: I think he could knock out Grant or he could
41:58
Speaker 1: wrestle heavily. But the longer it goes, the more I
42:01
Speaker 1: would start to trust Grant. I think he could take over.
42:04
Speaker 1: I really like Grant's volume in the later years. And
42:08
Speaker 1: I think he's just a well-rounded fighter. He could mix
42:11
Speaker 1: in a takedown or two, but he's also kind of
42:13
Speaker 1: an opportunistic submission grappler too. And he could submit a
42:18
Speaker 1: gassed Smith late. So I like both sides of this fight.
42:22
Speaker 1: Don't really have a preferred play, put it as a
42:24
Speaker 1: three and a three. Cause I like both sides. And
42:26
Speaker 1: typically that leads me to the underdog. But when I'm hand-building,
42:31
Speaker 1: if I have it as a three and three, I'm
42:33
Speaker 1: just not starting with this fight. I'm going to start my,
42:35
Speaker 1: my lineup with a Montez or something like that. Montez,
42:38
Speaker 1: Or a Magomedov. That's where I'll start my lineup, I
42:41
Speaker 1: would imagine. Maybe both. I'll go Montes, Magomedov. And then
42:44
Speaker 1: I'll start working and see where it goes. And then
42:47
Speaker 1: if I can get either one of these guys in
42:51
Speaker 1: with one of my later picks, that's what I love
42:53
Speaker 1: to do in a fight where I'm targeting both guys
42:55
Speaker 1: in a higher-starred fight. So I just think this is
42:58
Speaker 1: going to be a good one. It's going to be
42:59
Speaker 1: a really good test to see how good Smith is.
43:04
Speaker 1: But at some point, man, Grant has to start falling off.
43:08
Speaker 1: So I picked Grant. I mean, I'm sorry. I picked
43:10
Speaker 1: Smith thinking maybe now is the time, but at $ 7, 100, man,
43:15
Speaker 1: I think he could be my preferred play. Might even
43:18
Speaker 1: be one of my highest owned underdogs just because I'm
43:21
Speaker 1: not so sure in it. And Grant hasn't really given
43:24
Speaker 1: me any reasons to think now's the time, but father
43:28
Speaker 1: time catches up with everybody.
43:30
Speaker 2: Yeah. I agree with you though. I agree with Marquis.
43:32
Speaker 2: Grant's a junkyard dog. He'll fight for your dollar. He
43:35
Speaker 2: feels like a floor play because he's not going to wrestle.
43:38
Speaker 2: I don't know how likely, plus he's plus 380 to
43:41
Speaker 2: get a finish, so that's your likelihood. But it doesn't
43:43
Speaker 2: feel like he's too likely to get a knockout, in
43:46
Speaker 2: my opinion. I just think his best path to victory
43:48
Speaker 2: is a 29-28, landing 100 significant strikes. Feels like a
43:52
Speaker 2: Gabriel Fernandez play where you're hoping to just get the win,
43:56
Speaker 2: 70 be enough. I'll take 70, though. If you tell
43:59
Speaker 2: me Grant wins, I don't really care what he scores.
44:01
Speaker 2: I would play plenty at 7,100. Smith, I think relatively low-owned.
44:05
Speaker 2: Has upside, but by no means do I love it.
44:08
Speaker 2: I think I'm probably on the Grant side more than Smith.
44:10
Speaker 2: Just hoping to get a win and trusting a live dog.
44:13
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'll play some Smith. Fights minus 150 to finish.
44:17
Speaker 2: And both sides should be relatively held in check. All right,
44:20
Speaker 2: let's get to the co-main event. Man, this looks like
44:24
Speaker 2: we're the most different. So I'm definitely going to have
44:26
Speaker 2: to throw it to you first. Tatiana Suarez, minus 205. Verna,
44:29
Speaker 2: plus 173. The most likely to go the distance on
44:34
Speaker 2: the card at minus 325. Suarez plus 380 inside the distance.
44:39
Speaker 2: Berna plus 550. Take it away. I mean, four stars.
44:43
Speaker 2: I was looking at this fight as a fade or
44:45
Speaker 2: heavy underweight. So try and sell me. Well, yeah.
44:50
Speaker 1: I just now changed it, but I don't know if
44:52
Speaker 1: you can't tell the main event. I put four stars
44:54
Speaker 1: for each fighter. I don't know what I was tripping
44:55
Speaker 1: on when I was at work doing this.
44:57
Speaker 2: I did notice that I was going to wait till you,
44:59
Speaker 2: till you saw it.
45:00
Speaker 1: So I updated everything now, uh, but this is a
45:03
Speaker 1: three star. Um, and it's more so because it's one
45:08
Speaker 1: of the few underdogs I picked to win outright against, um, uh,
45:15
Speaker 1: one of the best wrestlers in WMMA. So that's really
45:18
Speaker 1: why it's, um, it was a four star, but I
45:21
Speaker 1: changed it to a three. I just think both, both
45:24
Speaker 1: women do have a path to victory. So whereas really
45:27
Speaker 1: one of the best wrestlers I've seen in WMMA, and
45:30
Speaker 1: she does have the path to victory of, you know, three,
45:34
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how many takedowns she
45:37
Speaker 1: can land against a Vern. I don't know that Vern
45:39
Speaker 1: would even care to get up. Cause she is pretty
45:41
Speaker 1: dangerous on the ground herself. She might just try to,
45:44
Speaker 1: to maneuver it to where she can get the advantage.
45:47
Speaker 1: But I think that if Suarez is going to win,
45:50
Speaker 1: it's at least three takedowns and 10-plus minutes of control time.
45:54
Speaker 1: And she can land little strikes in between there and
45:57
Speaker 1: score well at $ 8, 600. And I would think that if
46:00
Speaker 1: Verna does get up, the rinse and repeat is available
46:03
Speaker 1: for Suarez. So, I mean, we've seen Suarez put up
46:06
Speaker 1: big numbers. So I like her in general. I've always
46:11
Speaker 1: been high on Suarez. I thought she should be a champion.
46:16
Speaker 1: But at this point, I think she's falling off. I
46:19
Speaker 1: think Suarez is washed. And even though she's the younger
46:22
Speaker 1: fighter of the two, I think Verna looks more in
46:26
Speaker 1: her prime. I think she could win the striking just
46:29
Speaker 1: based on volume alone. And I also think if she
46:32
Speaker 1: were to take down Suarez, Suarez could really be in trouble.
46:35
Speaker 1: Whereas if Suarez gets takedowns, we kind of expect that,
46:38
Speaker 1: but I don't expect her to finish Verna. in top control,
46:44
Speaker 1: but a wrestler like Suarez is not used to being dominated.
46:47
Speaker 1: They're used to being the hammer, not the nail. So
46:49
Speaker 1: I think a good grappler, good wrestler in Verna is
46:52
Speaker 1: just super live in this matchup. She's actually my favorite
46:56
Speaker 1: bet on the board right now. I haven't bet it yet,
46:59
Speaker 1: but I've been thinking about it all week really, so
47:01
Speaker 1: I might as well. She's just 38 years old. I
47:04
Speaker 1: think she is beginning to get washed herself too, but
47:09
Speaker 1: I just think that Suarez is more washed. And she's
47:12
Speaker 1: kind of had her moment and failed big. And it's
47:14
Speaker 1: hard to come back from that. So give me Verna.
47:17
Speaker 1: She's my preferred play. We're going to be one of
47:19
Speaker 1: my higher owned underdogs, if not higher owned, definitely higher
47:22
Speaker 1: leveraged underdogs on the card. And I'm fine with a
47:25
Speaker 1: little bit of Suarez just because she is still Suarez.
47:29
Speaker 1: And if she were to win, it would be a
47:30
Speaker 1: pretty good score. But Verna is my pick to him.
47:34
Speaker 2: Who wins the striking?
47:36
Speaker 1: I think, I think Verna.
47:38
Speaker 2: Yeah.
47:38
Speaker 1: I think Suarez wins. we'll have more behind her shots,
47:43
Speaker 1: but Verna will land more and more. So it's like,
47:46
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I pick who lands more
47:49
Speaker 1: in that, but what are these idiot judges think?
47:51
Speaker 2: I don't know.
47:52
Speaker 1: Maybe if someone gets cut open, then that person who
47:54
Speaker 1: cut them open wins the striking. I think it would
47:56
Speaker 1: be kind of that close where it's just like your
47:58
Speaker 1: power versus your volume.
48:01
Speaker 2: Yeah. The reason I asked that is because I am,
48:04
Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that Suarez is capable of, I shouldn't
48:08
Speaker 2: say capable. She's definitely capable, but I think she's past
48:11
Speaker 2: her prime too. And like her fight against Lamos, like
48:15
Speaker 2: she struggled to get takedowns. And Verna, while she is
48:18
Speaker 2: comfortable off her back, will probably just sit there the
48:21
Speaker 2: whole time, especially if you think she's the better striker.
48:23
Speaker 2: Why would Verna not just try and keep it out
48:25
Speaker 2: in the feet, strike? I don't think she has success
48:28
Speaker 2: on her own offensive takedowns. And that's why in a
48:30
Speaker 2: fight that's minus 325 to go the distance, it's only
48:33
Speaker 2: gotten worse. The over has taken money as the week's
48:36
Speaker 2: gone on. You need Tatiana to wrestle heavy and have
48:39
Speaker 2: success all three rounds. Or you need Verna to win, which, yeah,
48:43
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess 7,600, I probably should have a
48:45
Speaker 2: little more interest than I initially did. But I think
48:48
Speaker 2: it stays on the feet for the most part. Or
48:50
Speaker 2: Verna is spending the time off her back. And if
48:53
Speaker 2: she just wastes five minutes off her back, it's hard
48:55
Speaker 2: to then catch up on points right there. So I
48:58
Speaker 2: guess maybe I'll keep them in my pool when I
49:01
Speaker 2: initially didn't expect to as much since I already have
49:03
Speaker 2: some other fades I like. But by no means do
49:05
Speaker 2: I like this fight. Big Marley likes it. a little
49:07
Speaker 2: more than I do. All right, it's main event time,
49:11
Speaker 2: and I think a pretty solid main event. I'm excited
49:13
Speaker 2: for this one. Waldo Cortez Acosta, minus 227. Johnny Walker,
49:17
Speaker 2: plus 190. Minus 400 for this one. fight to finish. Waldo,
49:21
Speaker 2: minus 130 inside the distance. Johnny Walker, plus 220. Waldo
49:25
Speaker 2: round one, plus 350. We're on opposite sides here. I'm
49:30
Speaker 2: on Johnny Walker. I do not understand this line. I
49:33
Speaker 2: love the new heavyweight Johnny Walker. I think it fits
49:36
Speaker 2: his body way better. I think he finally is fighting
49:39
Speaker 2: smart behind his leg kick, which is absolutely nasty. Waldo,
49:43
Speaker 2: a heavy-footed guy, always planted. I think if he beats
49:48
Speaker 2: up that leg early like he did against Parkin, limits
49:50
Speaker 2: the mobility, I can take over from there. So dogger pass.
49:54
Speaker 2: Money's been moving against me, though, which I don't love
49:56
Speaker 2: to see. But, yeah, that's not changing my mindset. Also,
50:00
Speaker 2: Waldo can get a third-round knockout, still not be optimal
50:03
Speaker 2: at 8,700. It's harder for me to see Johnny Walker's
50:07
Speaker 2: not being optimal at 7,500. So I think I'm underweight Waldo,
50:11
Speaker 2: play others in the range, overweight Johnny Walker, and I
50:14
Speaker 2: definitely will play some fight fades, though, with there being
50:17
Speaker 2: 14 fights and 12 to 14 expected to finish. Tell
50:20
Speaker 2: me why I'm wrong and why Waldo and where Waldo
50:22
Speaker 2: wins this fight.
50:24
Speaker 1: I don't know that you're wrong. I just think that
50:26
Speaker 1: Waldo's the more likely winner over the course of, five
50:31
Speaker 1: rounds in striking i think he's the more likely wrestler
50:35
Speaker 1: also i just uh round one is going to be
50:38
Speaker 1: the most difficult walker is more explosive i'd say he's
50:41
Speaker 1: more powerful early uh but the longer it goes the
50:45
Speaker 1: more i think it would shift into acosta's favor so
50:48
Speaker 1: round one i think it's pick them after round one
50:51
Speaker 1: i think each round uh the line would start to
50:53
Speaker 1: increase more and more for acosta Um, but yeah, it
50:57
Speaker 1: could get too late where he just doesn't score enough.
50:59
Speaker 1: And I almost made this a four star for that reason.
51:02
Speaker 1: And I might make it a four star after I'm
51:03
Speaker 1: done making my lineups. Uh, but I just lump Walker
51:06
Speaker 1: in with, uh, let's see here. Walker, Petroski, Lorenco or Lorenzo, uh,
51:17
Speaker 1: cash aware and Parsons, all dogs who shouldn't expect to win,
51:22
Speaker 1: but if they do win, have a really good chance
51:25
Speaker 1: of scoring 100 plus points. So they're all very similar
51:28
Speaker 1: to me. I'm not really starting any lineup with them.
51:30
Speaker 1: I'm going to start how I told you I'm going
51:31
Speaker 1: to start. And then those are going to be the
51:33
Speaker 1: ones where I click on, just see where I can go.
51:36
Speaker 1: And that's how I hand build in general. But that's
51:39
Speaker 1: exactly how I'm going to start hand building this week.
51:43
Speaker 1: And then I'll just have to find a way to
51:44
Speaker 1: get different. Maybe it'll be leaving salary on the table
51:48
Speaker 1: from one of my last couple picks. Or if I
51:50
Speaker 1: end up clicking against those high ceiling underdogs. Maybe I
51:54
Speaker 1: do click more of the live underdogs, like a Janda
51:57
Speaker 1: Roba grant. Who's the other one we were talking about Fernandez,
52:01
Speaker 1: something like that.
52:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And if you parlay,
52:05
Speaker 2: like you mentioned the Parsons, the Johnny Walker's, the Petroski's like,
52:09
Speaker 2: if you parlay them, you're going to get, I know
52:12
Speaker 2: they're all underdogs, but one of them is expected to finish.
52:15
Speaker 2: If you, it makes it easier to say, if you
52:18
Speaker 2: parlay all the favorites against those underdogs that big Marley mentioned,
52:22
Speaker 2: you're going to get plus money, meaning that at least
52:24
Speaker 2: one of those underdogs is expected to win. That's why
52:27
Speaker 2: there's no fight stacks on this card. And while it
52:31
Speaker 2: is a little more uncomfortable to go to the low
52:33
Speaker 2: 7K range, more than likely one of them should win.
52:36
Speaker 2: Then they'll be needed on this card. And that's a
52:38
Speaker 2: way to get to the top without as many dupes. Yeah,
52:41
Speaker 2: I do not like Waldo as much as the field will, though. Especially,
52:46
Speaker 2: like you said, if you think Johnny Walker is more
52:48
Speaker 2: dangerous early, Bucs don't have it that way. They have
52:50
Speaker 2: Waldo more on one equity than Walker, but if you
52:53
Speaker 2: do believe that, then you don't think Waldo's going to
52:56
Speaker 2: get a finish in the first two rounds, and a
52:58
Speaker 2: third round would not be enough if Johnny then does slow.
53:02
Speaker 2: You think Waldo's more likely to wrestle, though. I guess
53:04
Speaker 2: that's not really a hot take. Johnny Walker doesn't wrestle,
53:07
Speaker 2: and Waldo can use his big frame, but I'm just
53:09
Speaker 2: not seeing either really wrestle. I think Johnny, man, I'm
53:13
Speaker 2: debating this, hitting this line. Maybe I'll wait for live bets,
53:17
Speaker 2: but I think the light kicks going to be money again.
53:19
Speaker 2: I think Johnny, I think Johnny's a little problem at
53:23
Speaker 2: the heavyweight division. I'm not saying he's going to win
53:25
Speaker 2: a championship by any means, but top six, maybe I think, uh,
53:29
Speaker 2: and that, yeah. And that show heavyweights so bad. I mean,
53:33
Speaker 2: let me go look at the heavyweight rankings quick. Yeah.
53:36
Speaker 1: I mean, he could be top six or he could
53:38
Speaker 1: be out of the UFC in two fights. It depends
53:41
Speaker 1: on how this goes.
53:42
Speaker 2: Kind of for sure. This is a huge fight for
53:44
Speaker 2: his career. Yeah. That's what I'm picking them. Let's see. Uh, Heavyweight. Aspinall.
53:52
Speaker 2: I mean, Volkov's two. Like, yeah, I mean, I think
53:56
Speaker 2: that's a relatively close fight. I guess, yeah, Curtis Blades,
53:59
Speaker 2: Johnny Walker, that'd be fun. Maybe Blades does wrestle him
54:02
Speaker 2: a ton. But Waldo's eight. Kunia of seven. I mean, yeah,
54:05
Speaker 2: if he wins right here, he's going to be relatively
54:07
Speaker 2: close to the top six.
54:09
Speaker 1: We'll see. Hockett boxes him all over the cage.
54:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Hockett is probably considered, I mean, he's fighting
54:16
Speaker 2: for the championship. Aspinall.
54:18
Speaker 1: I mean, that is a championship fight now, huh?
54:21
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, Hokit, Pereira, like Hokit's arguably top three
54:25
Speaker 2: or four. So yeah, I agree. Hokit beats Johnny Walker, but.
54:30
Speaker 1: So I got a question for you as a cash
54:32
Speaker 1: game player. How often are you stacking main events and
54:37
Speaker 1: are you stacking this main event?
54:40
Speaker 2: I probably stack it at least 90% of the time.
54:43
Speaker 2: Last week I didn't, I just played the Moicano. The
54:46
Speaker 2: nature of the card, there was a lot of, um,
54:48
Speaker 2: pretty like favorites that were not like Cody dirt in 7,900.
54:52
Speaker 2: There was an AK favorites and up mid tier stuff
54:54
Speaker 2: that way. As far as this card, man, I definitely
55:01
Speaker 2: don't look until later. My guess is I'm probably going
55:04
Speaker 2: to stack it though. The reason is like the Johnny
55:08
Speaker 2: Walker range. I don't feel really too confident of anyone
55:12
Speaker 2: priced around him. Um, So I think I'm naturally going
55:16
Speaker 2: to play him in a five-round favorite that's minus 227,
55:19
Speaker 2: minus 120 inside the distance fighter with five rounds to
55:28
Speaker 2: work at 8,700. It's pretty hard to ignore in cash. So, yeah,
55:31
Speaker 2: my guess is I will stack it. It doesn't feel great,
55:34
Speaker 2: but it's cash games. You're not playing for a ceiling outcome.
55:37
Speaker 2: You mainly just want to win 4-2 or 4-6. Yeah.
55:42
Speaker 1: Usually when I don't know if I'm going to stack it,
55:44
Speaker 1: I sometimes think, and especially if I'm picking the underdog,
55:47
Speaker 1: sometimes I'll just use the underdog and maybe stack like
55:49
Speaker 1: a Smith and a grant instead. But with heavyweights, you
55:53
Speaker 1: can't really risk it like that in cash games. Cause
55:54
Speaker 1: Walker could just get zero points.
55:57
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. I think I'm going to get over to
55:59
Speaker 2: ship a nation.com though. We do put three, three of
56:02
Speaker 2: the six, give out 50% of the cash game lineup,
56:06
Speaker 2: at least. And in my opinion, the three core plays,
56:08
Speaker 2: you also get big Marley's you get fan duel and,
56:10
Speaker 2: You get projections and ownership for MMA, of course, as always.
56:14
Speaker 2: Slate station, write-ups. This stone will be completed, color-coded. Everything
56:19
Speaker 2: will be all filled in, including weigh-ins. MMA, it never stops. Yeah,
56:25
Speaker 2: hope everyone enjoys their weekend. If you're not doing anything Saturday,
56:28
Speaker 2: college football and MMA is a great way to prepare
56:31
Speaker 2: for free money Sunday the next day. Final thoughts, Big Marley,
56:34
Speaker 2: before we get on out of here.
56:37
Speaker 1: I mean, congrats again to Hebrew cheetah on the million
56:40
Speaker 1: dollar win, man. I've been pumped about that all week long,
56:42
Speaker 1: but hopefully we'll be riding that heater for this card.
56:45
Speaker 2: Good luck to you. Title.
56:46
Speaker 1: Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
56:48
Speaker 2: Appreciate everyone hanging out. Get on over to ship a nation.com.
56:51
Speaker 2: Get in the discord. If you do join like button,
56:54
Speaker 2: the subscribe button helps us out a ton on YouTube
56:56
Speaker 2: as well. That'll do it. Good luck. Be safe. Enjoy
56:59
Speaker 2: your weekend. Peace.