The Plausibility of Future Scenarios: Cognitive and Methodological Perspectives

Future Fictions Lab : Reverse-Engineering Tomorrow · Aug 27, 2026 · 6m

This research explores how future scenarios are evaluated, specifically examining the overlooked criterion of plausibility from the user's perspective. By integrating cognitive psychology, narrative theory, and philosophy, the book investigates how individuals judge the realism of complex projections. Through a semi-experimental study involving students, the author compares the effectiveness of narrative-based methods against formalized matrix approaches like Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. The findings reveal that source credibility, internal consistency, and a user's pre-existing beliefs…