Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / BIG GAME PREVIEW: ALABAMA VS MISSISSIPPI STATE
Transcript
- Jackson: All right, first pick six of the game of the week. We got Alabama traveling to Starkville, just across state lines to play Mississippi. Line here is Bama minus five and a half. obviously no secret, two explosive offenses, two really talented quarterbacks that we expect a lot from from both of these teams in this game. Keelan Russell, obviously the freshman that's for Alabama, that's you know kind of started to come on. recently showing kind of all he can do. And then you have Camario Taylor who's kind of been somewhat of like the storyline of college football this year, or one of one of the big storylines. I mean he's he's kind of exploded onto the scene and and has you know, you see that a sixteen by Mississippi State, ranked in the A P poll that high for the first time in a long time. So big matchup in Starkville. What do you what do you got for this one, Davis? Davis: Can you tell me the last time Mississippi State beat Alabama? I was looking all this up earlier. Do you know what it is? Jackson: Two thousand three. Davis: Two thousand and seven. So I think it was it was Saban's first year and Mississippi State squeak squeaked out a win there. But the the series record is like eighty six and like eighteen or something ridiculous like that. I wish I had it pulled up still, but Jackson: Yeah, it's it's right here. Graphics guys on it. Don't worry. Davis: damn, I just I just pulled that. I did not see that, but I pulled that from memory. So that's Kinda impressive. yeah. thank you, Millich, for putting that on the the graphics there. Gotta always give a shout Jackson: Yeah, shout out shout out Millage, that's appreciate it. Davis: out for every episode. But yeah. I I think you definitely hit the nail on the head with the explosive offenses. Just to kinda add, I guess, context for that. I'm a stat nerd when it if y'all haven't been able to tell, but Bama and Mississippi State ranked in the eighty sixth and eighty seventh percentile in explosive play rate. So Expect a lot of big plays. Alabama is actually giving up explos explosive run plays in the sixteenth percentile. So one of the worst teams when it turned in terms of giving up explosive runs, which is kind of surprising given, you know, what this Alabama defense was supposed to be. I know they've been good at times. They've been good against the past, but the explosive runs have have kind of hurt this defense. Jackson: Yeah, th they've definitely shown a little bit more vulnerability through this point in the season than I probably thought they would, given the schedule that they've played. I think one thing to watch in this game is, you know, Camario Taylor's kind of been able to do whatever he wants in a lot of these games. I know they s they were down to South Carolina and they came back and won that game. they were down last week to Missouri, came back and won that game. I think You can't afford to get down in a game against Alabama. I think the offense is too explosive. I don't think the Mississippi State defense is gonna be able to just completely shut the offense down for Mississippi State to be able to mount a comeback late in the second half, the second quarter, whenever it is. I just don't think they can afford to go down big. Bama's pass rush has been pretty good getting home with four to this point in the season. So that's another thing that Mississippi State probably is not gonna be like super accustomed to. Yeah, Missouri's front is not great. South Carolina did not have Dylan Stewart, I don't believe, when they played Mississippi State. So the pass rush and playing a front like Bama's is gonna be, I think, a little bit of a wake up call from Mississippi State. Davis: Yeah. And I'm interested to see how the physical corners of Alabama match up to the the speed that Mississippi has out wide. I mean th this is probably the fastest team that Alabama will play up to this point. You know, Florida State kinda gave them troubles, but Deuce Robinson, Florida State's receiver, is one of the is a, you know, bigger body and he had a good game, but this is a whole different ball game with with the the type of receivers that Mississippi State employs. Jackson: Yeah. Different builds. Right. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Also worth noting, and we haven't brought him up yet, but definitely worth mentioning. Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State's running back. the main reason for Mississippi State's explosive plays, or I wouldn't say main reason, the second biggest reason behind Kamario Taylor. So far through four games, rushed for four hundred and two yards at five and a half yards per carry. one of the better running backs in the league. So someone to definitely look out for here. Jackson: Is he banged up? You know, he went down in the Missouri game. I haven't seen any like thing that I don't I don't think he's out necessarily, but I think he may be a little bit banged up. And I guess, you know, that's all running backs when you get into Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the meat of the season, but something to look out for if he maybe I think it was an angle. So, you know, if he rolls on that angle Davis: So he's listed as Jackson: wrong, it could be a short leash. Davis: Yeah, he's listed as prob probable, so don't see any reason that he misses it, but Jackson: Okay. So nothing too serious. Davis: could be, you know, limited. Jackson: Yeah. for me if Mississippi State's gonna try to win this game, it's gonna have to be it's gonna have to look like one of the vintage you know, old school Bama losses from the kind of the prime of the Sabin days. I think Camario Taylor's gonna have to put the team on his back and just have a career day. obviously they're gonna have to run the ball. I don't think I don't think he's gonna be able to just drop back and sling it on Bama's defense like he did against South Carolina and on Missouri. I think, like I said, it's a different animal. But, you know, when you add the run game element to that, if you make Bama put some more guys in the box and leave those corners and those safeties out on islands one on one against the receivers, you know, like you said, it's it's a different type of receiver. The the speed and the quickness is gonna be a lot different than Alabama's seen so far this season. So, that's that's a big key to the game for me. If they can run the ball and kind of make Bama stack the box more, get those one on one matchups and let Camario Taylor kind of go to work and Put the ball where needs to be. I think that's where things could get dangerous for Alabama. So to me that's the recipe for a loss going on the road if you're if you're Bama. Davis: Yeah, I think Camario Taylor's gonna have to beat him with with his legs if Mississippi State wants to win this game. I know you you saw, you know, last year you had Florida State put up in that upset win. Tommy Casciano's ran for a whole lot of yards. You know, the narrative around Alabama, and I know it was mostly during the Saban days, was if you're gonna beat them, you need a mobile quarterback. I think that that narrative is Kinda remain true so far. so that's that's one thing that I'm looking out for. off the top of your head, how did Ashton Daniels like run the ball against Shaw? Jackson: Well, I was I was in a wedding for that game, so I was kinda watching it on the phone, you know, here and there. So I I don't think his run game was a big part of that. from what I can remember, it was a lot of just we kinda sent the house at him and he was just either putting the ball on the money or the receivers were going up and getting it. I mean he just had a good game, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: throwing the ball. So and I think if you're Alabama, what you have to do in this game is weather the storm early. You're going on the road, you're playing an eleven o'clock game, like you can't do what you did against Kentucky. Kind of the same Davis: Yeah. Jackson: thing I said about Bama's offense. Mississippi State's offense, it's gonna be tough to shut them down and and just hold them to nothing if you get behind early in a game, especially on the road. So I think you just gotta weather the storm, get this game into the second, third quarter, and just kind of grind it out. and I I think Davis: Speaking of Storm, have you seen the forecast for this game? Jackson: I don't think it's coming. I I think I think it's moving out. I d I don't think it's actually Davis: really? Jackson: gonna be yeah. So the the initial weather forecasts were rainy, like you know, just complete downpour. But from what I've seen it benefits the underdog always, in my opinion. Davis: And I think that benefits Mississippi State if it if it is that well, I think it benefits the underdog and it benefits the team that is more prepared to run the ball, which you know, Mississippi State one of the better rushing teams, not only with Fluff Bothwell, but with Camario Taylor too. And then you have the tendency to Alabama to give up big plays to the run. But I I guess I was kinda going back and forth with my pick. I kinda settled in on Alabama and then saw the weather and did make me hesitate, but I'm glad that you have looked at the weather since then. I'm gonna go with Bama here. Austin Simmons had a had a field day against that defense last week. I've really come on to the fact that Keelan Russell is legit and I think that he can, you know, do whatever Austin Simmons did and more. So I like Alabama minus five and a half here. Jackson: Yeah, I'm gonna roll with you. And I think that's a good point. I think it's you know, to g to get Keelan Russell off his spot, Mississippi State's gonna have to throw a lot of blitz packages at him. and I think that's kind of what teams have tried to do so far in the season. Florida State tried to do and we had a pretty great answer in the second half. So I think if you're Keelan Russell, you're watching a lot of that Florida State film. And seeing kind of where to go with the ball against the heavy bloods packages. So I think having seen a lot of that already. And also Mississippi State's kind of had to play all their cards, you know, early in the season, if that makes any sense. They played two really close games, so there's not anything that they've necessarily held back. Where, you know, you can always add things, but at this point in the season with offense and with defense, you've kind of you've shown everything. So There's nothing new that scheme wise that you're gonna see from them other than, you know, a few plays they may install and and practice this this past week. So anyways, b bottom line, I got Bama. I think they're just too much for them. I think Mississippi State's good, but I don't think they're to that level yet.