Latest / Crosstabs / John Horvick Explains Turnout

Transcript

John Horvick Explains Turnout · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_03: We're clear to engage.
0:01
SPEAKER_03: Time on target.
0:02
SPEAKER_03: Five mics.
0:03
SPEAKER_03: Out.
0:04
Yeah, it will be, huh?
0:20
SPEAKER_02: Well,
0:21
SPEAKER_02: hey,
0:22
SPEAKER_02: speaking of statewide stuff,
0:25
SPEAKER_02: John,
0:25
SPEAKER_02: we were just we just had Will Atherp on talking the attorney general space.
0:29
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
0:30
SPEAKER_02: So we were and turnouts was a big part of the discussion.
0:33
SPEAKER_02: So that's why we have John on back on, you know.
0:36
SPEAKER_02: Sure.
0:37
SPEAKER_02: Having John Horvick back on, Reagan probably knows more about your resume.
0:41
SPEAKER_02: I just know that you were great last time, one of our most downloaded pods.
0:45
SPEAKER_02: Oh, wow.
0:45
SPEAKER_02: That's nice to hear.
0:46
SPEAKER_02: It was fun to have you back on and really talk about turnout because it seems to be
0:51
SPEAKER_02: the conversation of the campaign right now seems to be voter turnout.
0:57
SPEAKER_02: Wouldn't you say that's where we're at?
1:00
SPEAKER_01: Well,
1:00
SPEAKER_01: you guys are closer to the individual campaigns than I am,
1:03
SPEAKER_01: but certainly what I'm experiencing on the Twitters,
1:08
SPEAKER_01: people are engaged.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: So the main question that's coming up because you tweet the percentage turnout by
1:15
SPEAKER_00: party every day,
1:17
SPEAKER_00: basically.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: And right now what it's showing is that Republicans have a higher turnout than Democrats.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that's where we're going to end up on Election Day.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: But right now,
1:30
SPEAKER_00: to me,
1:31
SPEAKER_00: and I don't have the amazing memory,
1:33
SPEAKER_00: but that is not historically what has happened historically.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: A lot of regions, Republicans are the late ballots.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: So is that a trend that you're seeing that's shifting where Republicans are voting
1:47
SPEAKER_00: or Republicans voting at normal rates and Democrats are voting at slightly lower
1:51
SPEAKER_00: rates at this point?
1:54
SPEAKER_01: Well, first of all, I'll just acknowledge that some of the historical stuff I just don't know.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: Part of the reason I don't know is I wasn't around.
2:02
SPEAKER_01: Or the Secretary of State's office is just terrible at keeping records with partisan turnout.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: It's not very good at keeping records with lots of things, but particularly with partisan turnout.
2:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: I wish that were better.
2:14
SPEAKER_01: For example,
2:14
SPEAKER_01: each day they put out their report,
2:16
SPEAKER_01: their daily report,
2:17
SPEAKER_01: but they don't save records of the old one.
2:19
SPEAKER_01: They just post over it.
2:20
SPEAKER_01: It's very frustrating.
2:22
SPEAKER_01: I started saving things a while back, but my records aren't that good.
2:26
SPEAKER_01: The easy thing to do in any of the conversations right now is to compare us to the last election.
2:32
SPEAKER_01: Oftentimes,
2:33
SPEAKER_01: that would be reasonable,
2:35
SPEAKER_01: but it's especially unreasonable now because 2020 was such an unusual year.
2:40
SPEAKER_01: It was unusual, of course, because of the pandemic.
2:42
SPEAKER_01: But because of the pandemic and all the things that surrounded it,
2:45
SPEAKER_01: you know,
2:45
SPEAKER_01: Democrats really said,
2:46
SPEAKER_01: get those ballots in.
2:47
SPEAKER_01: We're worried about mail being slow.
2:49
SPEAKER_01: Republicans, these are broad strokes, right?
2:51
SPEAKER_01: But Republicans said, you know, mail voting is not trustworthy.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: Do it late and in person.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: You know, some of those things maybe were more intense in other states.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: But certainly, I feel like it turned out
3:05
SPEAKER_01: patterns in 2020, you know, Democrats did show up early and Republicans showed up late.
3:10
SPEAKER_01: And then that makes 2020 difficult to compare,
3:12
SPEAKER_01: but it makes it particularly difficult to compare among Ds and Rs.
3:16
SPEAKER_01: And if you look at the G graphically,
3:19
SPEAKER_01: like Multnomah County, for example, versus some more conservative county.
3:23
SPEAKER_01: Multnomah County's turnout looks really bad relative to 2020.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: And other parts of the state,
3:29
SPEAKER_01: more conservative parts of the state,
3:31
SPEAKER_01: look relatively good compared to 2020,
3:33
SPEAKER_01: although turnout's down in every county compared to 2020,
3:36
SPEAKER_01: but relatively good.
3:37
SPEAKER_01: But of course, that makes sense because Republicans turn out late in 2020 and Democrats turn out early.
3:43
SPEAKER_01: And so now when you push forward to 2024, those gaps are going to be quite large.
3:48
SPEAKER_01: But Democrats have work to do.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: You'd rather be,
3:51
SPEAKER_01: I think we'd probably end up,
3:53
SPEAKER_01: I think at the end of the day,
3:53
SPEAKER_01: we'd probably end up something pretty typical,
3:55
SPEAKER_01: which is decent hours turn out around 90%.
3:59
SPEAKER_01: But I'd rather have a ballot in the bank than one you got to go get.
4:04
SPEAKER_02: Yes, that seems to be.
4:06
SPEAKER_02: I've talked to some other operatives out there that follow you on Twitter,
4:10
SPEAKER_02: and they're like,
4:11
SPEAKER_02: I know what John's saying,
4:12
SPEAKER_02: and I just don't think.
4:13
SPEAKER_02: I don't think it's going to be typical.
4:14
SPEAKER_02: And you end up being about where it's at.
4:18
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, we'll see, obviously.
4:21
SPEAKER_01: I mean, the future is unknowable.
4:24
SPEAKER_01: We can only look at past patterns.
4:25
SPEAKER_01: I'm not really sure what the case is for John.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure what the case is as we sit here on October 31st for why it's going to
4:34
SPEAKER_01: be wildly different than the historical trends.
4:37
SPEAKER_01: By the way,
4:38
SPEAKER_01: the other factor just think about is in 2016,
4:41
SPEAKER_01: of course,
4:41
SPEAKER_01: we changed the base because we had automatic voter registration,
4:46
SPEAKER_01: and so now there's a lot more eligible voters.
4:48
SPEAKER_01: But if you look at eligible voter turnout, it looks very normal.
4:51
SPEAKER_01: There's nothing unusual about it at all.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: Um,
4:55
SPEAKER_01: and that's just another complicating factors who try to make these comparisons to
4:59
SPEAKER_01: the past,
4:59
SPEAKER_01: but I do see some folks who are,
5:02
SPEAKER_01: who respond to me and it's,
5:04
SPEAKER_01: you know,
5:05
SPEAKER_01: in a different circumstance,
5:06
SPEAKER_01: the sorts of people who respond would be the reverse,
5:09
SPEAKER_01: but,
5:10
SPEAKER_01: um,
5:10
SPEAKER_01: you know,
5:11
SPEAKER_01: very excited Republicans and Trump supporters to just think,
5:15
SPEAKER_01: oh,
5:15
SPEAKER_01: of course,
5:15
SPEAKER_01: of course,
5:16
SPEAKER_01: you're not among Democrats as low as they can.
5:18
SPEAKER_01: Harris is awful and couldn't possibly be excited to vote for her.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: And I promise you,
5:23
SPEAKER_01: if you live in inner northeast Portland like I do,
5:26
SPEAKER_01: that is a misreading of where partisan Democrats are at.
5:31
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think it's going to end up being a little bit more normal.
5:35
SPEAKER_02: I was just looking at some numbers here.
5:37
SPEAKER_02: But I so I think you're right, though.
5:39
SPEAKER_02: One weird factor, I think, is just what I'm hearing.
5:42
SPEAKER_02: And I have a race in Multnomah County,
5:45
SPEAKER_02: the Senate district race there that we're working on in love against Senator Chris Gorsuch.
5:50
SPEAKER_02: So sure.
5:51
SPEAKER_02: But what we're hearing at the doors is people are so disenfranchised with the ranked choice.
5:58
SPEAKER_02: ballots and the process they have if they're in the city of portland that they
6:01
SPEAKER_02: literally we literally had people on the doors last saturday's why they said they
6:05
SPEAKER_02: just threw it all away because it was just so annoying like having to like no idea
6:10
SPEAKER_02: what they're doing it'll know who any of these people are and they literally just
6:14
SPEAKER_02: threw their ballots away
6:16
SPEAKER_01: So I got to say, I mean, I'm sure that happened.
6:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm sure you knocked on someone's door.
6:20
SPEAKER_01: Somebody who really threw their ballot away.
6:23
SPEAKER_01: What were the odds that person was going to actually cast their ballot anyway?
6:27
SPEAKER_01: And I suspect that that person was unlikely to vote anyway.
6:30
SPEAKER_01: That a person out there is so mad about Portland's ranked choice voting for a city
6:34
SPEAKER_01: council election that they're not going to vote in the presidential race.
6:37
SPEAKER_01: That person was an unlikely voter anyway.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: Well, it's wishful thinking on my part.
6:42
SPEAKER_02: I mean, I'm trying to win a race.
6:44
SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's not easy.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: I will say you've taken a race that probably takes a half page and turn it into a full page.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it is some extra work.
6:55
SPEAKER_00: Oh, it is.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: I had a buddy text me and said,
6:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm putting money on the first six names because nobody knows who any of these
7:03
SPEAKER_00: people are,
7:03
SPEAKER_00: right?
7:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
7:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
7:05
SPEAKER_01: So in my neighborhood,
7:08
SPEAKER_01: I've done some sort of ballot nights where people can come and ask questions and
7:13
SPEAKER_01: don't try to push people towards one thing or the other,
7:15
SPEAKER_01: but just try to help them understand what the heck they're voting on.
7:18
SPEAKER_01: But really, in Portland, and Brian, to your point,
7:22
SPEAKER_01: People are confused.
7:23
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, people are confused about how to vote.
7:27
SPEAKER_01: Do I have to rank all six?
7:28
SPEAKER_01: It's the most common question I get.
7:31
SPEAKER_01: Will my ballot be thrown out?
7:32
SPEAKER_01: If not, can I rank somebody more than once?
7:36
SPEAKER_01: Can I rank someone number one for two people more than once?
7:39
SPEAKER_01: And I do think that there is...
7:42
SPEAKER_01: There is an especially large burden for Portland voters.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: That said, you know, turnout's pretty crappy right now, relatively speaking, in Clackamas County.
7:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
7:52
SPEAKER_01: there's a tiny,
7:53
SPEAKER_01: tiny sliver of Portland in Clackamas County,
7:54
SPEAKER_01: but basically Clackamas County,
7:57
SPEAKER_01: that explanation doesn't hold there.
8:00
SPEAKER_01: But I do think in Portland, it's harder to vote this election for sure.
8:04
SPEAKER_01: And if people end up taking more time to do it, then...
8:07
SPEAKER_01: That would be reasonable.
8:09
SPEAKER_01: And I suppose if somebody takes too much time, the clock eventually runs out.
8:13
SPEAKER_01: But if you just look at turnout, turnout's driven by top-of-the-ticket stuff.
8:19
SPEAKER_01: It's not driven by down-ballot stuff.
8:21
SPEAKER_02: Do you think then in that case,
8:23
SPEAKER_02: in that theory that maybe people are taking longer that we're now going to,
8:27
SPEAKER_02: because we didn't have,
8:28
SPEAKER_02: we have really more ballots kind of trickle in,
8:31
SPEAKER_02: in the seven days,
8:32
SPEAKER_02: two years ago,
8:33
SPEAKER_02: right?
8:34
SPEAKER_02: When we had four days for the mail-in.
8:36
SPEAKER_02: Do you see that number probably going to tick up a lot more?
8:39
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
8:40
SPEAKER_01: Yes, good question.
8:41
SPEAKER_01: If I had to guess right now, I'd say it would.
8:44
SPEAKER_01: That'd be my guess.
8:46
SPEAKER_01: I think two factors.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: One, people probably have taken more time to fill out this ballots because it is harder to fill out.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: And two,
8:52
SPEAKER_01: I think that the early the pressure to vote early is diminished,
8:57
SPEAKER_01: particularly among kind of folks from the left.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: And so they probably probably feel a little more confident in those ballots and a
9:03
SPEAKER_01: little bit later than they did earlier.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: Certainly four years ago, but perhaps two years ago, too.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: So that'd be my guess.
9:09
SPEAKER_01: I mean, obviously, we'll see.
9:10
SPEAKER_01: But but that'd be my guess.
9:13
SPEAKER_01: I'd agree with that, Brian.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: I will say you talk about voter behavior.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: And I would say as it becomes more established that you can drop your ballot in the
9:22
SPEAKER_00: mail and get it postmarked on Election Day,
9:25
SPEAKER_00: even though.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: When your ballot's going to get postmarked is still tricky.
9:28
SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't drop it at a mailbox at 8 p.m.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: on Election Day.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: That's probably not going to work.
9:34
SPEAKER_00: But as people get used to that being consistent,
9:38
SPEAKER_00: most people,
9:39
SPEAKER_00: including myself,
9:40
SPEAKER_00: are going to turn their ballots in at the last possible minute.
9:43
SPEAKER_00: It's just we're going to wait for the deadline.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: It's just a human-style behavior for a lot of people.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: Right.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: My ballot's filled out.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: It's done.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: I didn't do it immediately,
9:53
SPEAKER_00: but it just sits by the door so I can get the increasingly lower amounts of mail I
9:58
SPEAKER_00: get in the non-competitive territory I am in Linn County.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: But I still want to get the maximum amount of voter contact just to see what's
10:05
SPEAKER_00: going on,
10:06
SPEAKER_00: but I'm weird like that.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: Everyone else is posting on Facebook,
10:09
SPEAKER_00: please,
10:11
SPEAKER_00: please,
10:11
SPEAKER_00: please,
10:11
SPEAKER_00: please make the mail and the text messages and the calls stop.
10:15
SPEAKER_01: Oh, gosh, right, right.
10:17
SPEAKER_01: Yes,
10:17
SPEAKER_01: I was going to tell a story about the calls I keep getting and it's like,
10:20
SPEAKER_01: oh,
10:21
SPEAKER_01: just stop,
10:21
SPEAKER_01: stop,
10:22
SPEAKER_01: stop already.
10:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's right.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
10:24
SPEAKER_01: most people,
10:24
SPEAKER_01: I'd say most,
10:25
SPEAKER_01: what do I know about how exactly the number of people who file their taxes on April 15th?
10:29
SPEAKER_01: But a lot of folks file their taxes on April 15th.
10:31
SPEAKER_01: You can do it a lot earlier than that, but there is a natural tendency to wait to the last minute.
10:36
SPEAKER_02: October 15th for me, I usually file an extension and then I do it again.
10:40
SPEAKER_01: There you go.
10:41
SPEAKER_01: See, even more to the point.
10:42
SPEAKER_02: Well, and I think.
10:46
SPEAKER_00: Not just with the deadline, but also you look at.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: Oh, my brain just went blank.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: I had something I was going to say and it just disappeared.
10:56
SPEAKER_02: On the non-voters, I was going to say, because like Vicky, she's still representative, has her ballot.
11:00
SPEAKER_02: It's sitting on her desk over here.
11:02
SPEAKER_02: And I turn mine in, right?
11:04
SPEAKER_02: Because here I am,
11:05
SPEAKER_02: I harp on people,
11:05
SPEAKER_02: turn your ballot in because it just costs my campaigns more money to text you and
11:10
SPEAKER_02: to call you and tell you,
11:12
SPEAKER_02: you know,
11:12
SPEAKER_02: because I think what we're hearing on the doors is most people and on the phones,
11:18
SPEAKER_02: most people are saying,
11:18
SPEAKER_02: I've already voted.
11:19
SPEAKER_02: I just haven't turned my ballot in.
11:21
SPEAKER_01: That'd be me too.
11:23
SPEAKER_01: So I'm not sure when this is going to post, but we're sitting here on October 31st.
11:26
SPEAKER_01: I filled out my ballot probably a week ago and I just,
11:30
SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:30
SPEAKER_01: no reason I'm not even like,
11:31
SPEAKER_01: whether I get the mail or not,
11:32
SPEAKER_01: it's kind of immaterial to me.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: My, you know, my partner hasn't turned in her ballot yet.
11:36
SPEAKER_01: So the household is still going to get stuff, but I don't know.
11:40
SPEAKER_01: I just haven't done it.
11:41
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
11:41
SPEAKER_02: It seems odd.
11:42
SPEAKER_02: And that seems to be the, you're right.
11:44
SPEAKER_02: Because that idea like hers has been sitting there and it's,
11:48
SPEAKER_02: I,
11:49
SPEAKER_02: we,
11:49
SPEAKER_02: you know,
11:49
SPEAKER_02: we're only what,
11:50
SPEAKER_02: three blocks from the county courthouse so we can walk over and drop it off.
11:53
SPEAKER_02: And I just happened to drop mine and I didn't grab hers.
11:56
SPEAKER_02: And I said, are you going to take it in?
11:57
SPEAKER_02: And she's like, I'll get to it.
11:59
SPEAKER_02: Like, I just think that that's probably pervasive, right?
12:02
SPEAKER_02: Most people have filled it out.
12:04
SPEAKER_02: They don't really,
12:04
SPEAKER_02: she doesn't want to put it in the mail because we've seen all the problems we've
12:08
SPEAKER_02: had with the post office.
12:10
SPEAKER_02: And I think everybody,
12:11
SPEAKER_02: especially like in Coos County and stuff,
12:13
SPEAKER_02: I'm dealing with down there where now nobody even knows where the ballots are.
12:20
SPEAKER_02: So I think that idea of trusting, it's really not trusting.
12:23
SPEAKER_02: I trust the system.
12:25
SPEAKER_02: With the clerks,
12:25
SPEAKER_02: because I think clerks by and by are all really good people and they do their job
12:30
SPEAKER_02: and they take their job seriously.
12:32
SPEAKER_02: That part I don't have a problem with.
12:34
SPEAKER_02: The problem is the post office actually being competent enough because they can't
12:39
SPEAKER_02: usually deliver my bills on time,
12:41
SPEAKER_02: let alone.
12:41
SPEAKER_02: Right.
12:43
SPEAKER_02: a ballot on time.
12:43
SPEAKER_02: So that stuff, it really concerns me.
12:45
SPEAKER_02: So,
12:46
SPEAKER_02: you know,
12:46
SPEAKER_02: we'll go,
12:47
SPEAKER_02: you do use the drop boxes and stuff,
12:49
SPEAKER_02: but I think that's where most people are just like,
12:51
SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
12:52
SPEAKER_02: maybe there's just this idea that they want to wait until Monday,
12:55
SPEAKER_02: Tuesday.
12:55
SPEAKER_02: And it feels like maybe it feels nostalgia of like you did it on election day.
12:59
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
13:01
SPEAKER_01: I will, I will hop in my, my point again about these, the challenges of comparing, um,
13:08
SPEAKER_01: recent elections to where we are today.
13:10
SPEAKER_01: You go before 2016 and
13:14
SPEAKER_01: we had a much smaller base of registered voters.
13:17
SPEAKER_01: So it was around 72, 73, something like that.
13:19
SPEAKER_01: And now it's like 92% of folks.
13:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no more voter, no seven days.
13:24
SPEAKER_01: So if you look at just registered voters,
13:26
SPEAKER_01: we have a much bigger pool of people,
13:27
SPEAKER_01: which makes anything before 2016 difficult to compare it to.
13:30
SPEAKER_01: 2020 is obviously an unusual one to compare it to.
13:35
SPEAKER_01: And then this is the first presidential election with the postmark rules.
13:38
SPEAKER_01: And so all these things make it difficult.
13:41
SPEAKER_01: Again,
13:42
SPEAKER_01: but if you just try to do an apples to apples from previous elections and just
13:48
SPEAKER_01: focus on those eligible voters,
13:50
SPEAKER_01: it really is among eligible voters right now,
13:54
SPEAKER_01: just like kind of smack in the middle,
13:55
SPEAKER_01: where you'd expect it to be,
13:57
SPEAKER_01: that this is not an unusually low point.
14:02
SPEAKER_01: It's just that 2020 was so high and go before 2016.
14:08
SPEAKER_01: we had fewer people who were registered to vote and those who were registered to
14:12
SPEAKER_01: vote were more likely to obviously turn out because they were getting the ballot.
14:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, also important to note, there's an article from yesterday.
14:20
SPEAKER_00: Clackamas County is, quote unquote, catching up, they say, on scanning ballots.
14:25
SPEAKER_00: They are showing a really low percentage rate.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: They're still at about 25 percent, which is low.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: So Clackamas,
14:31
SPEAKER_00: Multnomah,
14:32
SPEAKER_00: there's there's a lot of counties out there looking for Washington at 35 percent.
14:36
SPEAKER_00: There's still a ton of ballots out there to really push the wide number up if they get turned in.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: That's another thing.
14:42
SPEAKER_01: If you're like us,
14:43
SPEAKER_01: if you pay really close attention election after election,
14:46
SPEAKER_01: you'll also start to see some patterns and some things that stand out to you as
14:50
SPEAKER_01: particularly unusual that maybe explain something.
14:53
SPEAKER_01: And I don't know why I'm not suggesting anything,
14:55
SPEAKER_01: but if you looked at the early days of returns in this election,
14:58
SPEAKER_01: Yamhill County,
14:59
SPEAKER_01: for example,
14:59
SPEAKER_01: wasn't showing anything.
15:01
SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't know how Yamhill County manages how it counts things and reports to the state's
15:05
SPEAKER_01: But I don't think people were not voting in Yamil County when they were voting in other counties.
15:10
SPEAKER_01: Clackamas County,
15:10
SPEAKER_01: I hadn't seen that article,
15:12
SPEAKER_01: Reagan,
15:12
SPEAKER_01: but if Clackamas County has something about it that it's...
15:16
SPEAKER_01: It's it's for whatever reason, slower in counting these ballots.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: It can make things can make the state numbers look unusual or the county to county
15:24
SPEAKER_01: comparisons look unusual.
15:26
SPEAKER_01: And and that can that can be tough.
15:28
SPEAKER_01: And then just, for example, yesterday, another one.
15:30
SPEAKER_01: I don't know why, but Multnomah County has been reporting at the county.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: If you go to the county's website, not the state's website, there's also differences between.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: those two places but the county's website they've been reporting typically around
15:43
SPEAKER_01: six o'clock at night and then yesterday it came out something around noon and you
15:48
SPEAKER_01: know you had about a third of the ballots that were and so if you just if you're
15:51
SPEAKER_01: not if you're not like us and just paying super close attention you might look at
15:55
SPEAKER_01: multnomah county yesterday's numbers and say oh my god turnout fell off a cliff but
15:58
SPEAKER_01: there was whatever was going on over there there's something that caused them to do
16:03
SPEAKER_01: an early release of their count and i suspect we'll get you know some big drop in
16:07
SPEAKER_01: today's numbers
16:10
SPEAKER_02: So,
16:10
SPEAKER_02: yeah,
16:10
SPEAKER_02: because I was looking at some Senate races and like just in that Senate District 25,
16:14
SPEAKER_02: there's like 9,700 Democrats that have voted.
16:19
SPEAKER_02: as of 1031, as of today's number.
16:22
SPEAKER_02: That's what I get in my data chart.
16:25
SPEAKER_02: Compare that to in Bend and September 27th, 19,652 Democrats have voted.
16:31
SPEAKER_02: So it's pretty amazing when you look at it down at our level at this micro Senate district level number.
16:40
SPEAKER_02: And the numbers on the 19,000 with Democrats, Republicans is similar to Senate district five.
16:47
SPEAKER_02: as well.
16:48
SPEAKER_02: So those seem to be trending more normal,
16:52
SPEAKER_02: where in Baltimore County,
16:53
SPEAKER_02: you're just like,
16:54
SPEAKER_02: wow,
16:54
SPEAKER_02: like,
16:55
SPEAKER_02: are people really not?
16:57
SPEAKER_02: Or is it to your point that somehow another ballots are just caught up in something?
17:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I certainly am not suggesting, I don't know.
17:06
SPEAKER_01: And if they were being slow to be counted or,
17:08
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:09
SPEAKER_01: sort of accounted for,
17:10
SPEAKER_01: I'm not suggesting any problem.
17:13
SPEAKER_01: It's just,
17:14
SPEAKER_01: it's hard to know from the outside if differences are occurring across the counties
17:22
SPEAKER_01: that make it look like people aren't showing up and maybe it's underappreciated.
17:28
SPEAKER_02: I think they're worried their ballots are going to get blown up in ballot drop boxes.
17:31
SPEAKER_01: You know, so we did a survey, Oregon Statewide Survey, and what are we now?
17:40
SPEAKER_01: It's October, so it must have been early October, early September.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: And we asked a bunch of questions about institutions.
17:49
SPEAKER_01: Did you trust them or not?
17:50
SPEAKER_01: So things like universities and banks, pharmaceutical companies and...
17:55
SPEAKER_01: whatever else we had in there, police, schools, things like that.
17:59
SPEAKER_01: We did put in Oregon's election system and it was 58% of Oregonians said that they had
18:06
SPEAKER_01: were very or somewhat confident in Oregon's election system.
18:09
SPEAKER_01: Now it's about 85, roughly 85% for Democrats and about 45% for non-affiliated and Republicans.
18:15
SPEAKER_01: And you're being a little jokey, I think, Brian, about things blowing up.
18:20
SPEAKER_01: But we had a problem with the DMV and registering folks.
18:25
SPEAKER_01: There is a generalized distrust of election systems across the country,
18:29
SPEAKER_01: some of it particular to Oregon,
18:31
SPEAKER_01: Oregon.
18:32
SPEAKER_01: the reasons with the DMV or other reasons.
18:34
SPEAKER_01: And then we have this,
18:35
SPEAKER_01: and I don't,
18:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
18:37
SPEAKER_01: I would,
18:37
SPEAKER_01: I would be surprised if it made a difference or measurable or observable difference,
18:42
SPEAKER_01: but it might,
18:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
18:43
SPEAKER_01: we are in a time when 58% of folks trust their election system.
18:46
SPEAKER_01: That's not a good number.
18:47
SPEAKER_01: And it's very partisan.
18:49
SPEAKER_01: And if people do see things that are happening,
18:53
SPEAKER_01: that causes them to distrust the system even more.
18:57
SPEAKER_01: That,
18:58
SPEAKER_01: like,
18:59
SPEAKER_01: maybe in the short term,
19:00
SPEAKER_01: but certainly in the medium and long term,
19:01
SPEAKER_01: I couldn't see a road in turnout.
19:03
SPEAKER_02: Well,
19:04
SPEAKER_02: that's been my problem with the Coos County,
19:06
SPEAKER_02: you know,
19:07
SPEAKER_02: the clerk down there who just basically brushes it off.
19:09
SPEAKER_02: And I'm just like, you can't,
19:12
SPEAKER_02: Elections,
19:12
SPEAKER_02: this is why I think that distrust,
19:14
SPEAKER_02: especially amongst Republicans,
19:16
SPEAKER_02: is because every time there's an instance that we point out where this quote
19:22
SPEAKER_02: unquote 100 percent safe and secure system is broken down,
19:26
SPEAKER_02: it's brushed off.
19:27
SPEAKER_02: It's just said it.
19:29
SPEAKER_02: It's not.
19:30
SPEAKER_02: It's just a small thing.
19:31
SPEAKER_02: Don't worry about it.
19:33
SPEAKER_02: And you're adding up all of the small things, and then it's kind of a big thing.
19:38
SPEAKER_02: And how close our elections are, I mean, we lost House races.
19:42
SPEAKER_02: We lost four, three or four House races under 500 votes.
19:46
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:46
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it matters.
19:50
SPEAKER_01: So I will just say, like, my own position on this is that I trust our election systems.
19:54
SPEAKER_01: I think that they're won well by competent people who are –
19:58
SPEAKER_01: you know, doing the work in good faith and that we have good systems and processes that work.
20:02
SPEAKER_01: That's like kind of my base.
20:05
SPEAKER_01: And I think that there are bad actors who have it for partisan reasons or
20:12
SPEAKER_01: ideological reasons or just they like chaos,
20:15
SPEAKER_01: like to beat up on our election systems,
20:18
SPEAKER_01: not because they really have an opinion about our election system because there's
20:21
SPEAKER_01: some other interests that they have.
20:23
SPEAKER_01: That said, I agree with you, Brian.
20:25
SPEAKER_01: I think that people who have made some maybe bad,
20:28
SPEAKER_01: but some good faith critiques or questions about our election system have,
20:32
SPEAKER_01: I think,
20:32
SPEAKER_01: often have been brushed off,
20:33
SPEAKER_01: have been told that you look somewhere else,
20:36
SPEAKER_01: you're saying this for illegitimate reasons.
20:40
SPEAKER_01: And then when the very specific things
20:44
SPEAKER_01: the people said that they were worried about came true.
20:46
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's a real black mark.
20:48
SPEAKER_01: And I hope that voters don't,
20:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
20:51
SPEAKER_01: I hope that voters don't then say we shouldn't cast our ballot,
20:55
SPEAKER_01: we shouldn't participate in our democracy,
20:56
SPEAKER_01: but it would be unreasonable to think that nobody's going to take that lesson.
21:01
SPEAKER_00: I did want to ask you real quick,
21:03
SPEAKER_00: I don't know how much you're able to share about this,
21:05
SPEAKER_00: but you did some polling for the Oregonian on some key races.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if there's more coming, but they reported polling results for Measure 118, Measure 117.
21:17
SPEAKER_01: I'm familiar with that polling, but we didn't do it.
21:20
SPEAKER_01: That's somebody else's work.
21:22
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I misread that.
21:26
SPEAKER_01: PPP did it for some progressive group.
21:31
SPEAKER_01: I can't remember who it was.
21:32
SPEAKER_00: The Libs did this poll in?
21:35
SPEAKER_01: well normally they use you guys they've done a lot of polling some entity I forget
21:44
SPEAKER_01: what it is did polling no they didn't commission any of it they just ran somebody
21:51
SPEAKER_01: else's press release
21:54
SPEAKER_00: Okay, well, I'm looking at these numbers totally differently then because maybe we will leave this in.
21:59
SPEAKER_00: PPP is a Democratic pollster.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: It's a Democratic pollster.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: They have a Democratic bias, which now makes me think totally differently about this polling result.
22:08
SPEAKER_00: Because I was going to say,
22:09
SPEAKER_00: I was like,
22:10
SPEAKER_00: Measure 117,
22:12
SPEAKER_00: ranked choice voting,
22:13
SPEAKER_00: which I'm super interested in and helped a little bit on the very grassroots campaign.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: We're not spending a million dollars a week on TV like Yes is.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: uh we're not spending any money on tv shows it as 41 40 and assuming that the
22:28
SPEAKER_00: liberal bias is a little bit in favor of yes i would i would put measure 117 in
22:34
SPEAKER_00: some serious jeopardy just based on that number i mean being up here plus one not
22:38
SPEAKER_00: near 50 even close with the late breakers i think i mean they're going to do some
22:43
SPEAKER_00: spinning but i don't think the late breakers are going to go really heavy for the
22:46
SPEAKER_00: yes side i think that one's going to be a squeaker if they're going to get it
22:49
SPEAKER_00: through and otherwise it's going to go down by a couple of
22:52
SPEAKER_00: points at least.
22:53
SPEAKER_01: Since you guys are called the crosstabs,
22:54
SPEAKER_01: a little bit of just kind of mechanics of how PPP works,
22:58
SPEAKER_01: at least as much as you can tell by what they say.
23:01
SPEAKER_01: First of all,
23:01
SPEAKER_01: in that release,
23:02
SPEAKER_01: they didn't release...
23:03
SPEAKER_01: So they say they modeled for or surveyed the likely voters.
23:07
SPEAKER_01: And likely voters, like... Yeah...
23:12
SPEAKER_01: There's different ways to go about it.
23:14
SPEAKER_01: And there's better or worse ways.
23:15
SPEAKER_01: There's not a way.
23:16
SPEAKER_01: But they didn't say how they did it.
23:18
SPEAKER_01: So there was no transparency about that.
23:20
SPEAKER_01: They didn't share any of their demo.
23:21
SPEAKER_01: They didn't show the demographic profile of the participants.
23:26
SPEAKER_01: So you can't say,
23:27
SPEAKER_01: I think that the electorate that you model is too much this or too little that or
23:31
SPEAKER_01: just right.
23:33
SPEAKER_01: More importantly,
23:36
SPEAKER_01: their methodology is to do what's called IVR,
23:41
SPEAKER_01: which is basically they call landlines by a computer.
23:47
SPEAKER_01: It's one of those surveys where there's a recorded voice.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure if you can say yes or no or strongly agree or not,
23:55
SPEAKER_01: but in the old days,
23:56
SPEAKER_01: you would say press one for your response.
23:59
SPEAKER_01: Forty-two percent of the sample was landlines.
24:02
SPEAKER_01: Now,
24:03
SPEAKER_01: no matter what your demographic profile is,
24:05
SPEAKER_01: I promise you,
24:06
SPEAKER_01: you can't get a true likely voter model with 42% of your respondents coming from lands.
24:11
SPEAKER_01: Now, those numbers may prove to be right or wrong, I don't know, but just...
24:17
SPEAKER_01: That's the way that they operate.
24:18
SPEAKER_01: It's very inexpensive because you can't use a computer to dial cell phones.
24:24
SPEAKER_01: It's against federal rules.
24:25
SPEAKER_01: And so calling cell phones, you also can't have a computer text people.
24:32
SPEAKER_01: You have to have a person do that.
24:34
SPEAKER_01: So those approaches are just, you know, staff labor time are just...
24:38
SPEAKER_01: much more expensive.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: And PPP just does really inexpensive.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: I'm not, I'm not trying to throw shade on them.
24:44
SPEAKER_01: I mean, because their numbers might be right.
24:46
SPEAKER_01: I'm not like,
24:46
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
24:47
SPEAKER_01: but I'm just like,
24:48
SPEAKER_01: so you're for your listeners,
24:49
SPEAKER_01: 42% of the sample from that poll came from landlines.
24:53
SPEAKER_01: And I mean,
24:53
SPEAKER_01: most of our stuff now would have like somewhere,
24:55
SPEAKER_01: somewhere between three and 5% of our complaints would come from land.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: So PPP, according to Oregonian article, I don't know how I missed this paragraph.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: It's right.
25:03
SPEAKER_00: Here's the thing is a sandwich between a couple of ads.
25:05
SPEAKER_00: And when I see the ads, I just keep scrolling.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: PPP is a prolific polling firm with more than 500 recent polls rated by aggregator 538.
25:13
SPEAKER_00: 538 rates at low for transparency about its weighting methods, but somewhat neutral for political bias.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: Although in my experience there, at least their Oregon polling is not neutral.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: It's a, it's a little bit.
25:22
SPEAKER_01: They're an explicitly democratic shop.
25:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: I think that's fair.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
25:28
SPEAKER_01: if you look at 538 and all their pollsters,
25:30
SPEAKER_01: they have like 500 and something sort of surveys in 538,
25:35
SPEAKER_01: which is in the top,
25:36
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
25:36
SPEAKER_01: three or four.
25:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they do a ton of work, partly because it's inexpensive.
25:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: And anyway, that's what that was in the Oregonian.
25:46
SPEAKER_01: I will say my gut level, those numbers seemed reasonable, to be honest.
25:50
SPEAKER_01: Like nothing struck out to me as like wildly, that can't be true.
25:55
SPEAKER_01: You know, 118 was down by a lot.
25:58
SPEAKER_01: Rank choice voting was close.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure if it's 40-40 or 45-55,
26:02
SPEAKER_01: but I kind of feel like that's like in the range of what seems possible.
26:08
SPEAKER_02: When we look at my Senate districts and stuff,
26:10
SPEAKER_02: I can tell you that landlines to cell phones that we get a hold of,
26:14
SPEAKER_02: you're looking at maybe 10% roughly,
26:19
SPEAKER_02: you know,
26:20
SPEAKER_02: even landlines anymore that are worth a shit.
26:23
SPEAKER_02: So, and if they are, they're definitely not finding a 42 year old.
26:27
SPEAKER_02: you know, a single mom that you're trying to reach, like that she didn't have a landline.
26:33
SPEAKER_02: I think I guarantee it.
26:34
SPEAKER_02: Unless she's living with her parents.
26:36
SPEAKER_01: If you do find one,
26:37
SPEAKER_01: you got to scratch your head and like,
26:38
SPEAKER_01: am I really talking to a person with that profile?
26:41
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, I don't wonder.
26:43
SPEAKER_02: It's pretty, so yeah, when people, how they do the methodology is very interesting to me.
26:49
SPEAKER_02: And nowadays, I don't even know how people can really get
26:53
SPEAKER_02: You know, because nobody's answering their phone right now.
26:56
SPEAKER_02: If they don't know who it is that's calling them, I mean, people aren't answering.
27:01
SPEAKER_01: Well, I'll tell you in our shop, we don't do candidate work and we don't work for parties.
27:04
SPEAKER_01: So just,
27:05
SPEAKER_01: I think we've talked about it before,
27:06
SPEAKER_01: but just folks listen for the first time,
27:08
SPEAKER_01: like DHM Research,
27:09
SPEAKER_01: we never work for candidates.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: We never work for political parties.
27:11
SPEAKER_01: That's not the space we fill.
27:13
SPEAKER_01: i mean i haven't done i haven't fielded a survey for any of my clients in the last
27:16
SPEAKER_01: two weeks so just there's no point for my clients to be in the field right now like
27:20
SPEAKER_01: like like you don't want to compete with everything else uh as well you get the
27:24
SPEAKER_01: results back and then people will say after the election are these still valid
27:27
SPEAKER_01: after you know who knows what happens and so i'm totally out of the out of the
27:31
SPEAKER_02: field that's right i i look at those the tracking polls the presidential tracking
27:36
SPEAKER_02: polls and stuff and i'm just like that's like if you're living in michigan or
27:39
SPEAKER_02: wisconsin right now you're just
27:41
SPEAKER_02: God, my son's in Arizona, you know, in college.
27:45
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, and he says, it's just you can't go anywhere without it.
27:50
SPEAKER_02: Like it is just overwhelming.
27:52
SPEAKER_02: And I can't imagine any of the polling up there is.
27:56
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's going to be close.
27:57
SPEAKER_02: guess what yeah talking like you know they're pulling a trump's up uh six tenths
28:03
SPEAKER_02: over here and kamala's up a point over here and i'm like a point like really yeah
28:08
SPEAKER_01: yeah yeah so like like i believe that the election is close i believe it's so close
28:12
SPEAKER_01: in arizona and north carolina and pick speakers i believe those things i would like
28:16
SPEAKER_01: as a pollster tries to do really good work we gotta like
28:20
SPEAKER_01: and I don't really do the sort of work that you're seeing that's coming out the
28:24
SPEAKER_01: week before the election.
28:25
SPEAKER_01: That's not the space that we're in.
28:27
SPEAKER_01: But our ability to measure whether someone's up,
28:30
SPEAKER_01: whether the race is 51-49,
28:31
SPEAKER_01: one way or the other,
28:32
SPEAKER_01: it's just,
28:32
SPEAKER_01: we don't have that level of accuracy.
28:34
SPEAKER_01: It just, it doesn't exist.
28:36
SPEAKER_01: There's also a lot of,
28:39
SPEAKER_01: you know,
28:39
SPEAKER_01: I don't have insight to the individual polling shops that are out there and what
28:43
SPEAKER_01: they're doing,
28:44
SPEAKER_01: but I will say that there have been a lot,
28:46
SPEAKER_01: a lot of,
28:48
SPEAKER_01: shops that spring up right before an election and all of a sudden they're really prolific.
28:55
SPEAKER_01: And they seem to be biased towards one side or the other.
28:58
SPEAKER_01: And I got to believe a lot of that stuff is just trying to game the aggregators,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: the 538s,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: the New York Times sort of stuff.
29:09
SPEAKER_01: Too many things pop up too close to an election for me to think that it is a
29:13
SPEAKER_01: legitimate business that is trying to accurately measure the way that the world is
29:17
SPEAKER_01: at a particular moment.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: So my last question is in these final six,
29:23
SPEAKER_00: you know,
29:24
SPEAKER_00: we've got most of this day's already over five and a half days.
29:27
SPEAKER_00: What are you looking for as you comb through sort of the reporting data and potentially,
29:34
SPEAKER_00: you know,
29:35
SPEAKER_00: some of the results?
29:36
SPEAKER_00: Maybe you're not looking at the results or don't care as much about those.
29:38
SPEAKER_00: You just really love the ballot returns.
29:40
SPEAKER_00: That's all you look at.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: What are you looking for?
29:43
SPEAKER_00: What are you paying attention to?
29:45
SPEAKER_01: Well, the next five days.
29:48
SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of talk about turnout and there's a lot of talk about like the
29:51
SPEAKER_01: overall turnout,
29:52
SPEAKER_01: whether we're at 35% or where we are today or,
29:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
29:55
SPEAKER_01: and how is that compared to the past?
29:56
SPEAKER_01: And that is...
29:59
SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
30:01
SPEAKER_01: And then there's talk about like turnout of what the turnout percent is for Democrats, Republicans.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: The thing that's just not mentioned as much, but it's much more consequential is what's the vote share.
30:11
SPEAKER_01: You know, what share of the electorate are Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated and third party voters?
30:16
SPEAKER_01: Because what the turnout is for any one of those groups is less important than how
30:21
SPEAKER_01: much of the composition of the electorate that they are.
30:23
SPEAKER_01: You know, and again, I expect that we get something closer to normal by the end of it.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: but right now Democrats sit at 40% vote share is right now, which is where they were in 2020.
30:36
SPEAKER_01: The problem is, is that non-affiliated voters turn out late.
30:39
SPEAKER_01: And so unless Democrats do get kicked into gear,
30:42
SPEAKER_01: they're going to,
30:42
SPEAKER_01: some of that,
30:43
SPEAKER_01: that vote share is going to be eaten away.
30:45
SPEAKER_01: Um,
30:46
SPEAKER_01: you know,
30:46
SPEAKER_01: I,
30:46
SPEAKER_01: I suspect,
30:47
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
30:47
SPEAKER_01: we'll lay through it would be the one I kind of the one opportunity for,
30:51
SPEAKER_01: for Republicans,
30:52
SPEAKER_01: certainly statewide.
30:53
SPEAKER_01: Um, and then, um,
30:56
SPEAKER_01: You guys are closer to some of those legislative districts.
30:58
SPEAKER_01: I guess I have my opinions on the Senate side.
31:02
SPEAKER_01: But it's that vote share that I'm looking for really more than anything else.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: Can Democrats get it back up to 10 percentage points between D's and R's,
31:09
SPEAKER_01: which would be kind of typical and what you'd expect kind of before the election
31:14
SPEAKER_01: kicked off,
31:15
SPEAKER_01: kind of I'd expected about 10 point gap.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: And right now it's about seven points.
31:21
SPEAKER_01: And that's that's what I'll be looking at is that that ratio between Democrats and Republicans.
31:26
SPEAKER_01: And then there's a million things I'll be thinking about, you know, post-election day.
31:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:30
SPEAKER_00: What about city of Lebanon deciding not to fluoride their water?
31:34
SPEAKER_00: They have a measure on the ballot to take fluoride out of the water,
31:38
SPEAKER_00: which I just learned today looking at Lynn County ballot.
31:41
SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
31:42
SPEAKER_00: I was out of the water.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: Hillsborough has an advisory vote for fluoride in the water.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: What do you think?
31:49
SPEAKER_01: What's your gut?
31:51
SPEAKER_01: Lebanon, I'd say they'll take it out.
31:53
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, that's it.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: I think you're right.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: No, I think you're right.
31:57
SPEAKER_01: And Hillsborough will put it in.
31:58
SPEAKER_01: Almost guaranteed.
31:59
SPEAKER_00: I think a bunch of them are going to be like, what, some fluoride in my water?
32:03
SPEAKER_01: hillsborough is an advisory vote so they'll i suppose they'll probably do whatever
32:07
SPEAKER_00: whatever they say um state representative high fam the dentist campaigning hard for
32:12
SPEAKER_00: that one he should i feel like he should be in the mix that just seems right he's a
32:16
SPEAKER_00: dentist he represents an area that's what near hillsborough or around hillsborough
32:20
SPEAKER_02: he should be involved depends on what house he's living in um
32:26
SPEAKER_02: I think if that's an inside joke, I don't know if high fam will get one or not.
32:33
SPEAKER_02: On the legislative stuff,
32:34
SPEAKER_02: what I'm seeing,
32:35
SPEAKER_02: to go back to that question,
32:38
SPEAKER_02: I think,
32:38
SPEAKER_02: Greg,
32:38
SPEAKER_02: and I agree with John,
32:39
SPEAKER_02: that Lebanon is going to vote out fluoride.
32:42
SPEAKER_02: I think that they're tired of it.
32:43
SPEAKER_02: Oh, guaranteed.
32:44
SPEAKER_02: They want to have less teeth, so they're going to vote for that.
32:49
SPEAKER_02: I don't know why it's that big of a deal.
32:50
SPEAKER_02: I know that's like an RFK thing,
32:52
SPEAKER_02: the whole fluoride and some,
32:54
SPEAKER_02: like,
32:54
SPEAKER_02: isn't that one of the things that he's against is fluoride in the water and stuff?
32:58
SPEAKER_01: I don't know for sure,
32:59
SPEAKER_01: but I'll say,
33:00
SPEAKER_01: you know,
33:00
SPEAKER_01: as a Portlander who's lived through the fluoride wars before,
33:03
SPEAKER_01: I pity any community that has to go through that.
33:07
SPEAKER_02: That's why I have a well on my ranch, John.
33:09
SPEAKER_02: I don't have to worry about anything.
33:10
SPEAKER_02: It's my water and I can test it and...
33:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it works out pretty well.
33:15
SPEAKER_02: The legislative stuff,
33:16
SPEAKER_02: what I look is where the NAVs break because at the end of the day,
33:20
SPEAKER_02: and then I look at the margin between the Ds and the Rs,
33:24
SPEAKER_02: right?
33:24
SPEAKER_02: So the gross margin, not the percent of turnout.
33:27
SPEAKER_02: That's not as important because if you're in a district that's 7% more Democrats
33:33
SPEAKER_02: and Republicans are even,
33:35
SPEAKER_02: well,
33:35
SPEAKER_02: I'm still 7% behind relative to whatever.
33:38
SPEAKER_02: Right.
33:38
SPEAKER_02: It's really the gross numbers and looking at the margin and then seeing where do the NAVs break?
33:43
SPEAKER_02: Do they traditionally break right?
33:45
SPEAKER_02: Looking at those numbers, I think that's really what I'm seeing and where I'm seeing it
33:52
SPEAKER_02: Traditionally, at least on the Senate race side, that's why we like the Gresham seat.
33:57
SPEAKER_02: And I'll stay on that one is because the margin is not there where it should be for
34:02
SPEAKER_02: a 10 and a half point registration advantage.
34:06
SPEAKER_02: Margin is not there right now.
34:09
SPEAKER_02: And I believe the non-affiliateds are breaking our way.
34:12
SPEAKER_02: Now they got to break our way.
34:14
SPEAKER_02: We're at 9709 to 6785, right?
34:14
SPEAKER_02: D to R. So I got to, if that margin holds,
34:23
SPEAKER_02: So then I got to carry 64% or so of the non-affiliated to get it within or non-affiliated another.
34:33
SPEAKER_02: That's why that 10-point registration advantage matters so much because it's soft.
34:40
SPEAKER_02: far to win a group by more than 60 points right so that's an interesting district
34:45
SPEAKER_01: um so you're looking at because you can do the counts because we get them with with
34:48
SPEAKER_01: partisanship but that's interesting district and that it has a fairly substantial
34:51
SPEAKER_01: democratic registration advantage but i think that i think it's like 22 college
34:56
SPEAKER_01: education in that district which just yeah and college education is is is such a
35:02
SPEAKER_01: strong predictor you told me john i listen to you
35:06
SPEAKER_01: you know and and that would be like i you know you're working hard i mean i put my
35:11
SPEAKER_01: money on gorsuch just given sort of the numbers and the history but that would be
35:14
SPEAKER_01: it that's a district that is real interesting to me for sure in the same way that
35:19
SPEAKER_01: that uh the kramer district there down in woodburn i think it has the highest
35:23
SPEAKER_01: percentage of folks of color and the lowest percentage of folks with college degree
35:26
SPEAKER_01: yeah um sort of being pulled in two different directions on on those on those
35:30
SPEAKER_01: demographics so like those are two races i'm
35:33
SPEAKER_01: i'm paying a lot of attention to not so much because of like the the the party
35:39
SPEAKER_01: power in the legislature but just the kind of the dynamics um those big forces that
35:43
SPEAKER_02: we've seen yeah they're unique in in a way that makes them competitive right so i
35:48
SPEAKER_02: think that i i i think you're i mean i looked at 22 and the voter turnout amongst
35:54
SPEAKER_02: the d's and r's was almost equal like gross yeah
35:57
SPEAKER_02: But it turned out interesting.
36:00
SPEAKER_02: And I think it breaks.
36:01
SPEAKER_02: Right.
36:01
SPEAKER_02: So I think I think Kramer wins probably by seven or eight points,
36:04
SPEAKER_02: I think,
36:04
SPEAKER_02: at the end of the day,
36:05
SPEAKER_02: which would be crazy knowing that it's a 7%.
36:09
SPEAKER_00: I will say, Brian, I will say I think seven is high.
36:11
SPEAKER_00: I think it's going to be under I think it'll be under five.
36:14
SPEAKER_00: But that's a pretty comfortable margin in a close district like that.
36:17
SPEAKER_00: But that's just me.
36:18
SPEAKER_00: Seven seems like a high number.
36:21
SPEAKER_00: All right.
36:22
SPEAKER_00: All right.
36:23
SPEAKER_00: Go high.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: Go high.
36:26
SPEAKER_02: I would take the other side and say in like a Kevin Mannix race,
36:29
SPEAKER_02: for instance,
36:30
SPEAKER_02: who's in 21,
36:31
SPEAKER_02: which is,
36:32
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:33
SPEAKER_02: I think that's going to be closer than people really think.
36:35
SPEAKER_02: I think that one's...
36:37
SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
36:38
SPEAKER_02: I think Kevin still wins,
36:39
SPEAKER_02: but I think that one's actually going to be a little bit closer,
36:41
SPEAKER_02: just given the demographics and what I saw last cycle with that seed.
36:46
SPEAKER_02: And as well,
36:47
SPEAKER_02: even Cyrus Javity on the coast,
36:49
SPEAKER_02: the only reason why I give him advantages over there is I go back to your voter
36:54
SPEAKER_02: education percentage over there is pretty low,
36:56
SPEAKER_02: and they do like Trump generally.
36:59
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
37:00
SPEAKER_01: and just the trend in that part of the state is just,
37:04
SPEAKER_01: the momentum there is towards Republicans for sure.
37:06
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
37:07
SPEAKER_02: Same with Senator Anderson on the coast.
37:09
SPEAKER_02: Same with Senator Anderson.
37:11
SPEAKER_01: And he's a well-known guy.
37:12
SPEAKER_01: He's been around for a long time.
37:14
SPEAKER_01: Of the three that are – maybe you think there's another one out there.
37:17
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
37:18
SPEAKER_01: But of the three,
37:18
SPEAKER_01: the Central Oregon,
37:20
SPEAKER_01: then I'd say I feel most confident – I feel pretty confident that Central Oregon is
37:27
SPEAKER_01: going blue.
37:27
SPEAKER_01: I feel pretty confident that Senator Anderson wins.
37:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
37:31
SPEAKER_01: And then the Gorsuch one,
37:34
SPEAKER_01: I suspect that Gorsuch holds on,
37:35
SPEAKER_01: but that,
37:36
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
37:36
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if he lost,
37:38
SPEAKER_01: that wouldn't surprise me.
37:39
SPEAKER_02: I mean, there's a 5,000 vote advantage, gross vote advantage for the central Oregon.
37:44
SPEAKER_02: So it's a, and you're talking already a higher voter turnout.
37:48
SPEAKER_02: So that's, that's a hard number.
37:50
SPEAKER_02: And I think the NAVs break center a little bit.
37:54
SPEAKER_01: And it's, it's a, it's those, those numbers, there are this it's,
37:59
SPEAKER_01: That's a place that's getting bluer because you're getting more college educated
38:02
SPEAKER_01: folks that are going there where the Gorsuch district is kind of legacy blue.
38:07
SPEAKER_01: And I suspect it'll it'll move more towards the Republicans if if we sort of assume
38:12
SPEAKER_01: current trends move forward.
38:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think so.
38:15
SPEAKER_00: Pre redistricting.
38:15
SPEAKER_00: That was basically a fifty one forty nine in the last Senate race.
38:18
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm sure they adjusted it some and that matters on the margin, but it's still going to be close.
38:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't even think like he can hold he can hold on and it can still be very, very close.
38:28
SPEAKER_01: What's your sense?
38:30
SPEAKER_01: You're on the ground in a way that I'm just not.
38:34
SPEAKER_01: And I'm in Portland,
38:35
SPEAKER_01: and so all the questions that I'm getting are really just like,
38:37
SPEAKER_01: how do I figure out who to vote for with this hundreds of candidates in ranked
38:41
SPEAKER_01: choice voting?
38:42
SPEAKER_01: What's your sense?
38:44
SPEAKER_01: Is a state Senate district anywhere in people's mind at all?
38:50
SPEAKER_01: How are they reasoning through that?
38:53
SPEAKER_01: week before the election is it just is it just is it just i'm a democrat i'm about
38:57
SPEAKER_01: democrat or i'm a democrat but i'm kind of pissed about the world and i might be
39:00
SPEAKER_01: open like what's like is it anything about the candidates or is it just larger
39:04
SPEAKER_02: forces that are kind of people question what i would tell you i we did a big get
39:09
SPEAKER_02: out the vote effort there last weekend we we had you know 40 50 people there and
39:14
SPEAKER_02: stuff and i i did a lot of doors myself just to try to get that sense
39:18
SPEAKER_02: I'm not the you know, I like to get on the doors here as a consultant.
39:22
SPEAKER_02: I like to get out there and hear what people got to say.
39:24
SPEAKER_02: I think the reason why Raymond's one, he's a different looking candidate.
39:29
SPEAKER_02: He's different than the normal things.
39:30
SPEAKER_02: I don't think Gorsuch's been around.
39:32
SPEAKER_02: So I agree with you that they've seen him on a ballot many times over many years.
39:37
SPEAKER_02: So that that inherent advantage is definitely there.
39:41
SPEAKER_02: But I think that Gresham is just changing.
39:44
SPEAKER_02: I grew up in Gresham, too.
39:45
SPEAKER_02: And so I think it's going back to the way it was when I grew up there, which was it was all Republican.
39:51
SPEAKER_02: Right.
39:51
SPEAKER_02: And so I think Obama really shifted that area, you know, blue.
39:58
SPEAKER_02: And then it's been kind of slowly working its way back since 16.
40:01
SPEAKER_02: But I think there's what matters there.
40:04
SPEAKER_02: What I notice is that Ricky Ruiz is.
40:08
SPEAKER_02: is very well liked within the structure and i see people for him but i don't see
40:14
SPEAKER_02: those same people saying i'm for chris gorsuch interesting or or zach hudson in a
40:19
SPEAKER_02: way or i would also say uh wow win as well in 48 i think that that's also another
40:26
SPEAKER_02: one where
40:28
SPEAKER_02: So I think Ricky has a little bit more inherent advantage just because I think he's
40:32
SPEAKER_02: definitely well-liked amongst other people in that neck of the woods versus the
40:36
SPEAKER_02: other ones where I haven't seen that before.
40:40
SPEAKER_02: for folks, other stuff.
40:41
SPEAKER_02: And even on the doors,
40:42
SPEAKER_02: like we,
40:42
SPEAKER_02: we went into a firehouse subs and I had on my Raymond sweatshirt and you know,
40:50
SPEAKER_02: and I love his commercials.
40:51
SPEAKER_02: And then, so to your point, I think on some level, I think, I think they get so drowned.
40:56
SPEAKER_02: People are so drowned out with the Joe Kent,
40:59
SPEAKER_02: MGP and the LCD and the bionome stuff, that's sucking the oxygen out of the room forever.
41:08
SPEAKER_02: It's really hard for us to break through the clutter, I think.
41:11
SPEAKER_02: That's been very difficult.
41:15
SPEAKER_02: Same in Central Oregon.
41:16
SPEAKER_02: The same thing with
41:18
SPEAKER_02: uh i'm running the carrie lopez race against person levy and that's also it's the
41:23
SPEAKER_02: same still in the lcd binum scenario right and lopez and lcd look a little bit like
41:29
SPEAKER_02: each other so it's also kind of weird because carrie would be like oh i'm at the
41:34
SPEAKER_02: grocery store and people say i voted for you and they think i'm you know and i i
41:39
SPEAKER_02: keep telling i said well i don't know if that's good for us or not i'm not sure
41:43
SPEAKER_02: So it's going to be interesting, but this year has been hard.
41:46
SPEAKER_02: I think everybody,
41:47
SPEAKER_02: all of our polling,
41:48
SPEAKER_02: and you've probably seen it,
41:49
SPEAKER_02: like 99,
41:51
SPEAKER_02: 98% of people have decided Trump or Harris.
41:54
SPEAKER_02: Like if you're undecided in that campaign, like get out of here.
41:58
SPEAKER_02: Don't even...
41:59
SPEAKER_02: Like, I don't even want you, you know, voting because you're going to be so uninformed.
42:03
SPEAKER_02: It's not even funny.
42:04
SPEAKER_02: But and then when you start getting down to our state reps,
42:08
SPEAKER_02: state Senate seats,
42:09
SPEAKER_02: we're seeing maybe a 50,
42:10
SPEAKER_02: 60 percent awareness where people are saying they're even aware of them.
42:17
SPEAKER_02: So and that's OK.
42:18
SPEAKER_02: I usually like that in a very targeted race.
42:21
SPEAKER_02: That number should be higher normally.
42:24
SPEAKER_01: I just did some focus groups out in Gresham, uh, about a month ago, maybe six weeks ago.
42:30
SPEAKER_01: And it was not about November stuff.
42:33
SPEAKER_01: Um,
42:34
SPEAKER_01: but in the course of it,
42:35
SPEAKER_01: we were talking,
42:36
SPEAKER_01: we're talking about city council and,
42:38
SPEAKER_01: um,
42:39
SPEAKER_01: I did ask our participants across the two groups.
42:42
SPEAKER_01: I think there are 21 or 22 people,
42:43
SPEAKER_01: but I asked our participants just on your own to write down the name of the mayor.
42:48
SPEAKER_03: Hmm.
42:48
SPEAKER_01: three people could do it.
42:50
SPEAKER_01: And it's just a reminder to me,
42:52
SPEAKER_01: just like,
42:52
SPEAKER_01: that's the mayor of their city,
42:53
SPEAKER_01: not a state rep or a state senator,
42:57
SPEAKER_01: which I think is much less salience to folks.
43:03
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I even know Travis Stovall as the mayor of Gresham, and I don't even live there.
43:07
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
43:08
SPEAKER_02: I think that's pretty, of course, I live and breathe this stuff.
43:11
SPEAKER_02: I think that's the reality.
43:12
SPEAKER_02: Didn't you say,
43:13
SPEAKER_02: wasn't there a stat that like once you leave office,
43:15
SPEAKER_02: your name ID drops by like 50% per year?
43:21
SPEAKER_00: I think I don't have it in front of me, but I feel like I was told that you lose your 50.
43:27
SPEAKER_00: It's like a half-life.
43:27
SPEAKER_00: It's like you lose half of whatever your name ID is now over each year.
43:32
SPEAKER_00: And so it just erodes really fast, and then it just continues to go down.
43:36
SPEAKER_01: That would be a great stat to have.
43:40
SPEAKER_01: I'll try to see if I can find a source for that.
43:42
SPEAKER_00: I sat with a candidate who had run for Congress two years before and had
43:46
SPEAKER_00: commissioned a poll for local office and was like,
43:49
SPEAKER_00: oh,
43:50
SPEAKER_00: wow,
43:51
SPEAKER_00: nobody remembers my hats from two years ago.
43:54
SPEAKER_00: One year ago, really, because he was planning his campaign.
43:57
SPEAKER_00: So, no, it can be surprising, humbling.
44:00
SPEAKER_02: In this case, then, we can use your dad.
44:03
SPEAKER_02: So since Senator Knope is no longer there,
44:06
SPEAKER_02: we could do a test case over the course of the next two or three years.
44:10
SPEAKER_02: We could run a poll.
44:12
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
44:12
SPEAKER_02: See like how far he falls off the radar and how quickly,
44:17
SPEAKER_02: especially somebody who's been there,
44:18
SPEAKER_02: what,
44:18
SPEAKER_02: 12 years as a senator.
44:19
SPEAKER_02: I mean, that would be very interesting to see.
44:23
SPEAKER_02: somebody where they started you know because we could well i think here's the thing
44:27
SPEAKER_00: though too is you probably got to start in 2020 when he was last on the ballot so i
44:30
SPEAKER_00: was thinking name id probably i mean everybody thinks that they're because they're
44:34
SPEAKER_00: in the news and walkouts and all that stuff that their name id stays i don't think
44:38
SPEAKER_00: so i think it goes down as soon as they're off the ballot yeah i think you have to
44:41
SPEAKER_00: you have to sort of rebuild that name id back up every two or four years to some
44:44
SPEAKER_00: extent there's some that stays but there's people moving all the time and stuff so
44:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, crazy.
44:51
SPEAKER_02: Well, we don't want to take too much long.
44:53
SPEAKER_02: Plus,
44:53
SPEAKER_02: I want to get Reagan to edit this podcast,
44:56
SPEAKER_02: John,
44:56
SPEAKER_02: and get it out the door so we can try to get it out,
45:00
SPEAKER_02: I think,
45:00
SPEAKER_02: even later today or tomorrow morning or something so we can kind of be relevant
45:04
SPEAKER_02: talking about turnout and stuff.
45:05
SPEAKER_02: I think it'll be fun.
45:07
SPEAKER_01: All right, John.
45:08
SPEAKER_01: Always nice to talk to you.
45:09
SPEAKER_02: yeah it's great we'll do some post analysis for sure so we'll have you back i think
45:14
SPEAKER_02: it'll be fun we'll give it a week because we're gonna have to give it a week uh for
45:17
SPEAKER_02: all the ballots to come in all those late late rushing ballots to come in so uh but
45:22
SPEAKER_02: we'll give it a week and then maybe i'll have to do it i'll be in hawaii a week
45:25
SPEAKER_02: after the election so i don't know
45:28
SPEAKER_02: I'll build from Hawaii.
45:33
SPEAKER_00: I'll zoom in.
45:33
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
45:35
SPEAKER_00: Why would you waste Hawaii like that, Brian?
45:38
SPEAKER_00: I can't imagine why you would do that.
45:39
SPEAKER_00: People can wait two weeks.
45:40
SPEAKER_00: They'll be fine.
45:42
SPEAKER_00: I understand.
45:43
SPEAKER_00: Thanks, John.
45:44
SPEAKER_00: Cheers.
45:44
SPEAKER_02: I appreciate it.