Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 18 - 4/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 18 - 4/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 18 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Monday. More importantly, happy Solar
0:37
eclipse day. That's right, guys.
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Have you fallen into the solar eclipse madness?
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I tell you what, it kind of crept up on me.
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I heard about it a little bit. I did some research.
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I'm kind of like a little bit interested in this.
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I'm excited about it. So I want to get this pot out
0:52
here in time so that hopefully you can you can find a way to
0:55
get outside and go and go catch the eclipse.
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It's kind of hard to like understand but there's this cool
1:01
thing I saw from I think it was the Boston Globe.
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You put in your basically your and I think that you can do this
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across the country. You put in your zip code and
1:09
then it'll tell you like when the peak eclipse is happening
1:11
which would be the path of totality.
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That's that little strip across the country where they sold out
1:17
all the Airbnb's months ago. And that's where you're gonna
1:19
get the best view of the eclipse.
1:21
But pro tip here do not stare at the eclipse.
1:24
Do not stare at the sun. You're gonna hurt your eyes and
1:27
damage your retina. But hopefully you got those,
1:29
those X-ray glasses or if you go to a, you know one of those one
1:34
of those IMAX movies that give it to you.
1:36
But I'm pretty excited because I I told my my wife that I think
1:40
it's supposed to be around 3:30 is the OR 3:29 PM Eastern Time
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in Boston. That's going to be our best
1:46
view. I said, hey, stop what you're
1:47
doing at 3:20. Me, you and and the Pop Meadow.
1:50
We're going outside and we're going to try to catch this
1:52
eclipse. The next one is not for 20
1:54
years. And guys, I'm 36 years old.
1:57
I will be 56 years old. If sports betting doesn't kill
2:00
me before then, 'cause every bet, every sweat probably takes
2:03
a year off your life. I'll be 56 next time this thing
2:06
rolls around. So don't feel like a nerd, don't
2:08
feel like a loser. This is pretty cool.
2:10
Solar eclipse doesn't happen very often and there I've read
2:13
articles about how like it's an existential experience where
2:17
everything gets dark. Obviously middle of the day, the
2:20
birds, the animals start to get freaked out.
2:23
This is going to be be an experience of a lifetime here.
2:25
So I will raise my hand and say yes, I am an eclipse person and
2:29
I cannot wait for it. But anyway, you didn't come here
2:31
on a pod on the all systems Go pod on a Monday to talk about
2:35
the eclipse. But I think it came for sports
2:38
betting conversation. So today I have a six pack of
2:40
sweats for you. I buried the lead.
2:42
Tonight is the national championship game Purdue and
2:45
Yukon. Now the spread is difficult
2:48
because sharp movements going one way, Ken palm's got an edge
2:50
the other way. So I'm going to be looking
2:52
toward the total and I'll give you a reason why to probably lay
2:54
off and belittle little wary. Although the obvious play is
2:57
just take UConn. They're 11 and O against the
2:59
spread last two March Madnesses. But I do have a bet here on the
3:02
national championship game which I'll share with you And then
3:05
right back to MLB. I have a 5 pack of MLB plays.
3:08
Two favorites, three dogs. So we can get a couple of these
3:11
dogs to bark. And that's what we're doing on
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today's pod episode 18 on a big Monday on solar eclipse day.
3:18
Now looking back toward Friday. Nice little 4 and 2 + 1 point O
3:21
5 units. We got the Red Sox if you
3:22
remember the Giants. The Royals also got the Iowa
3:25
money line with with Caitlin Clark getting it done against
3:29
UConn. Only losses There were VGK,
3:32
which don't remind me, you probably wanted to forget it.
3:34
If you sweat sweat that game. Vegas was up 4 to 1 going into
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the third period. I think they gave up like six
3:38
goals. They lost like seven O 4 and
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then also the Reds came up a little short but overall was a
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winning week on the pod as we had what I think around 3
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winning days. One day was even, one day was
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loser. So let's see if we can keep it
3:51
rolling here and start a new week off on a high note.
3:55
And also over the weekend maybe you had a couple unders in the
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NCAA tournament final four. The Yukon under I had under 160
4:02
1/2 against Alabama. It barely got there, but it did
4:05
get there. And then the NC State under also
4:08
hit, which was nice. And if you were looking at the
4:10
college women's college final, Caitlin Clark obviously losing
4:15
her final game and I don't know, maybe gave up there a little bit
4:18
late. Didn't give up but jacked up
4:19
some threes and I thought it could have been a little bit
4:21
closer. But either way South Carolina
4:23
wins and South Carolina covered. If you noticed, South Carolina
4:27
was the contrarian bet, low bets, higher dollars and a
4:29
reverse line. I think they were, was it -5
4:32
1/2, up to 6 1/2 even though public was on Caitlin Clark in
4:35
Iowa. So that goes to show our model,
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our blueprint, tracking the market.
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You know, it doesn't have to be just NFL or or NBA.
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You know, we use it across all the different sports and you may
4:45
have located a sharp play there on on the South Carolina
4:48
Gamecocks and they did come through.
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So either way guys, on Eclipse day, let's get off our week or
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start our week off on a winning note.
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That is always the goal. So I want to start with the
4:57
national championship game. So any time you get to a
5:01
championship game, one thing I want to mention is you know are
5:03
you holding anything in pocket futures wise?
5:06
Because when why that is it so important is that one.
5:09
You're obviously rooting for futures to win, but also that
5:12
can really influence, you know how you play that championship
5:15
game. So I'll give you a perfect
5:16
example. Like I'm logging into one of my
5:19
apps because I'm in Massachusetts, one of the what
5:21
are we up to 39 legal states here.
5:23
And I did place a futures bet. So my futures bet on
5:26
Connecticut, I got them at 11 to 1.
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So I'm looking pretty good. Now there's an option here.
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A lot of books will give you the cash out option.
5:35
So they're basically asking me to cash out, which means I could
5:38
you're basically hedging when you cash out.
5:39
So I could take that money right now and get about 2/3 of it or I
5:43
can wait, hope Connecticut wins and get the full, the full
5:46
granddaddy, the whole thing. But cash out I think is
5:49
interesting in terms of, you know, do you want to let it
5:51
ride? Do you want to cash out and
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protect yourself and guarantee a profit?
5:54
To me, I'm, I bet this UConn plus 1100 to win the title.
5:58
Let's see, I placed that back on January 16th.
6:01
So I'm just rolling with UConn. I'm hoping my future bet here on
6:05
UConn wins. So I think it's important, you
6:07
know, maybe you have a a Purdue future here, Purdue to win it
6:11
all. You know, do you ride it out,
6:12
see if they can get the upset there or do you cash out,
6:15
guarantee yourself a profit. So just remember, anytime you
6:17
get to Super Bowl, you know, obviously, you know, other
6:21
sports that have a seven game series, you know, really doesn't
6:23
apply as much unless it's game seven.
6:25
But a one off, what are you holding in pocket?
6:27
What does that money mean to you and what's the smartest bet for
6:30
your bankroll? So for me, I'm going to ride it
6:32
with UConn and hope UConn wins this game.
6:34
Now that being said, let's look at what the market is doing for
6:37
this one because this one is really interesting for a couple
6:39
of reasons. Number one, we do have the line
6:41
going to Connecticut tonight. So UConn opened as around a six
6:45
point neutral site. Favorite reminder, this game
6:47
will be at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, at a football
6:50
stadium home of the Cardinals. But if you look at kind of what
6:54
we've seen market wise, the line is going to Connecticut, the
6:56
Huskies open -6, Huskies are now up to -7 now.
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And I was writing a sharp report for vesan.com earlier today
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about this game. There are a lot of 6 1/2's and a
7:05
couple sevens. Now you're pretty much all
7:07
sevens painted across the board toward Connecticut.
7:10
So line is going to Connecticut and I must admit Connecticut has
7:13
a pretty decent bet split. They're getting 68% of bets, 76%
7:17
of dollars and the lines moving in their favor.
7:20
So if you just go from a market standpoint of cover up the names
7:22
of the teams, you know we have a slight majority of bets, big
7:25
majority of money. And the lines moving toward this
7:27
would be, you know, team B. Team A is Purdue, Team B,
7:30
Connecticut person. A long time ago when my mentors
7:32
in sports betting always said, you know, as soon as you look at
7:35
the lot of people, what they'll do is they'll look at the names
7:37
of the teams 1st and then that clouds their vision and either
7:40
talks them into or out of betting on one team.
7:43
My mentor always said cover up the names of teams and look at
7:45
what the betting market is showing first the opener to the
7:48
current percentages and then that way you'll kind of approach
7:51
the game with less bias in mind. Now obviously, we all know who's
7:54
in the championship game doesn't, you know, play as well.
7:57
And it's more important like what I do in baseball every day
7:59
is I'll look at the overnight lines, but you know, wake up and
8:02
I'll just go right to the numbers, open the current, look
8:04
at line moves without looking at the teams then that way you
8:06
don't cloud your vision basically.
8:09
But anyway, lines going to Connecticut.
8:11
Good. Low bets, higher dollars, bet
8:12
split. Now UConn is the better
8:14
offensive efficiency. Not a huge, you know,
8:16
discrepancy first versus third. I mean these are top three
8:19
offenses. Klingon versus not Klingon.
8:23
Isn't Klingon from Star Trek Klingon?
8:25
Anyway, the two big guys against Edie?
8:27
That should be a great match up just, you know, whole other side
8:29
here. But better defensive efficiency
8:31
for UConn. 4th versus 12th. Better free throw shooting, 74%
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versus 72%. And UConn does take better care
8:37
of the ball. They rank 36th in the country in
8:40
turnovers versus 145 for Purdue. So with all that being said,
8:44
it's like how do you not take Yukon?
8:46
Because as we all know, the, you know, the elephant in the room
8:48
here is that Yukon, they outperform the betting market
8:51
every single game. This has been two years running.
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Yukon is 11 and O against the spread.
8:56
I mean, they even did it against Alabama where that was nip and
8:58
tuck the whole time. Then they pulled out, you know,
9:00
pulled away late. They're able to cover that
9:02
number. So on the one hand, it's like
9:03
don't overthink it. Lions going to Yukon Yukon's 11
9:06
and O against the spread. How do you not just lay the
9:09
seven? You probably missed the 6 1/2,
9:11
but just lay the seven with Yukon.
9:13
I get that. I totally understand that.
9:15
Here's kind of one thing that is tripping you up though.
9:18
Ken Palm, our trusted Ken Palm. He has Yukon only winning by
9:22
three points. He's got Yukon winning 75 to 72.
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So if the number one analytics guy has a three-point game and
9:30
we are laying A7 on the favorite, that's not very good
9:32
actual value. So this comes, you know, this
9:35
comes in, in a couple different ways.
9:37
To interpret this, you could say Purdue is contrarian in the most
9:41
heavily backed game. So here I am, you know, let me
9:44
just tell you right now, I'm not, I'm not taking either side.
9:46
I'm going to focus on the total. I'm going to go under.
9:48
So I'll give you that breakdown in a second.
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But in game situations like this, to me it's a layoff
9:54
because on the one hand Purdue is contrarian, which I like.
9:57
They're only getting 32% of bets.
9:59
They have a bit of an inflated line open at 6:00.
10:02
Now you're getting 7 and Ken Palm only as I'm losing by
10:04
three. So hey, that's value right
10:06
there. But then on the other hand, line
10:08
is moving to Yukon, Yukon's got a low bets, higher dollars bet
10:11
split and Connecticut's 11 and O against the spread.
10:14
So if you tell me like Yukon, I'm not going to argue with you,
10:16
you tell me like Purdue, I'm not going to argue with you.
10:18
In situations like this, guys, if I don't see a clear edge one
10:21
way or the other, it's a layoff for me.
10:23
Like let's say Ken Palm has you know Connecticut winning by 7:00
10:26
or 8:00 then I'd feel more comfortable laying the points of
10:29
Connecticut. But the fact that he's got only
10:31
A1 possession game, I don't see much value in laying Connecticut
10:35
other than just banking on the fact that they always cover
10:36
numbers and you're just basically you're you're you're
10:38
betting that specific, you know trend or betting system,
10:42
whatever you want to call it. So again you like Purdue, not
10:44
going to argue that you're getting +7, you're contrarian.
10:47
Ken Palm's got a three-point game, you're betting UConn.
10:49
I'm also not going to argue with you.
10:50
They continue to cover numbers and the line is moving in their
10:53
favor. So with that being said, I don't
10:56
want either part of the of the spread.
10:58
I can make a case for both. I can make a case why?
11:00
You know, each one is a little bit dicey.
11:02
So I'm gonna lay off, I'm gonna go with the total and I'm going
11:06
under, Give me the under here guys.
11:08
I would have loved to have gotten this out a little bit
11:10
earlier. You know, obviously it's a
11:12
podcast listeners, but of course we have to play the number
11:14
that's available to us right now.
11:16
But I'm going under here now. I got under 145 1/2.
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A lot of books now are 145. I see some 144 and a halfs out
11:23
there. So this line continues to drop,
11:25
which is a good sign. Tells us smart money here is
11:28
going under. You may be able to shop around
11:30
and still find the 1:45. I see at least two books with
11:32
it. I don't know if you're going to
11:34
find a hook on a 145 1/2 anymore though.
11:37
That seems to be long gone at this point.
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I bet it I want to say this morning like 6:00 AM, something
11:43
like that, 145 1/2. But anyway, Publix on the over
11:46
61% of bets but this total has fallen 147 1/2 to one 45144 1/2.
11:52
Right now both teams are really good under teams so let's take a
11:56
step back. That was reverse line movement.
11:58
Nearly 2/3 of bets over get the total fell clear Dead giveaway
12:01
that pros are on the under. Both teams have been really good
12:04
under teams this year. Connecticut is five and O to the
12:07
under this March madness. Purdue is 4 and one to the
12:09
under. Now both teams are top 12 in
12:12
defensive efficiency. Both play really good defence.
12:14
Both teams are also pretty slow. If you look at the adjusted
12:18
tempo, which is possessions per 40 minutes, 64.7, Connecticut
12:23
versus the Boilermakers 67.1. So remember when we kind of get
12:28
into pace, anything below 70 is slow, anything above 70 is fast.
12:32
These are both, you know, basically 6567, so bog it down,
12:37
you know, half court, you know, keep it toward a lower scoring
12:40
game. That's kind of we've seen, or at
12:42
least tempo wise, for both these teams.
12:45
Now, if you look at some historical numbers here, unders
12:48
this March Madness. Now, I admit this has been one
12:50
of my worst March madnesses, because dogs haven't barked,
12:53
contrarian plays haven't come through.
12:55
It's been chalk, chalk, chalk, public, public, public.
12:58
And when that happens, it's bad for contrarians, it's bad for
13:01
sharps, it's bad for sports books.
13:03
With that being said, unders have been pretty good.
13:04
I'm kicking myself for not playing more Unders.
13:06
I finally got into them, you know, late here in March
13:09
Madness. But anyway, Unders this March
13:12
Madness are 36 and 2955%. Remember the break even point,
13:17
The magic #52.38%. So you're making money here,
13:20
betting unders and March Madness, which is a small
13:22
consolation prize to all the contrarians who've gotten killed
13:25
by all the public plays on the side.
13:27
Now Unders, let's see if they fall at least two points.
13:31
So this one is now falling 147 to one 45144 1/2.
13:35
That's two or even 2 1/2 points. It's fallen Falls at least two
13:38
points, which is what I would call a severe line move.
13:41
You know you can get a half point here or there.
13:42
Two points is pretty big. So falls two points or more.
13:45
The under is 43 and 2761% in March Madness since 2020.
13:51
Unders are 11 and seven 6061% in the championship game since
13:56
2005. Here's where it gets a little
13:58
better. When the championship game has a
14:00
total of 145 or more, the under six and two.
14:04
Now I know when I wrote it, it was one 45145 1/2.
14:07
Now it's 144 1/2. So you're technically not in
14:09
that ballpark anymore but it goes to show those higher end
14:12
totals have gone under. And then lastly tired legs under
14:16
system. You know this is the 6th game in
14:19
the tournament for both these teams.
14:21
It's a very short turn around. They played Saturday, only one
14:23
day off. Now you play again Monday and
14:26
then so hopefully tired legs slower you know front rim some
14:29
shots. But the other angle here is when
14:31
you get to, you know, pretty soon we're going to have NBA and
14:34
NHL playoffs but Game 7 unders, you know everything's on the
14:39
line. Championship game.
14:40
You're maybe not going to be, as you know, risk.
14:42
You're not as much of A risk taker.
14:43
You're going to be a little more conservative.
14:44
You're going to use the shot clock.
14:46
You're going to be, you don't want to make a mistake to lose
14:48
the biggest game of the year. So that game 767 under trend
14:52
would match with this, you know, championship game tired leg
14:56
system. So you got it all up here, guys.
14:58
Again, I think you can make both cases for the side, but it's
15:01
very clear to me where the money is going with the total it's
15:03
going under. I got under 145 1/2 again.
15:07
Now you're looking ideally at least the 1:45, and there's 144
15:10
and apps out there as well. Let's get a lower scoring game.
15:12
Can we get AI? Don't know.
15:14
I don't care who covers. Can we get a 67 to 62 game?
15:18
How about something like that? That'll be pretty good.
15:21
But give me the under Purdue, Connecticut, I got under 145
15:24
1/2. Now let's go over to some Major
15:27
League Baseball. We got some MLB today.
15:29
I did notice that NBA is off today, which is fine, 'cause I I
15:33
have a love, hate relationship with the NBA right now.
15:35
I hate it. And there were two hockey games
15:37
tonight, but nothing really caught my eye.
15:39
So to me, it's the championship game and it's MLB.
15:41
So let me give you some MLB sweats here for tonight.
15:44
First game on the board for me. I'm going to take a shot on the
15:46
Philadelphia Phills. Let's go, Phillies.
15:49
Someone goes out to my buddy James Santor who is a big Phills
15:52
fan and one of my one of my wise guy pals when it comes to
15:56
rhythm, as well as the sports betting and media market.
16:00
But anyway, Philly's going to Saint Louis.
16:02
Taking a shower with Philly here.
16:03
Guys, I've just noticed a pretty good steam movement in favor of
16:05
Philly. Saint Louis open tonight at home
16:09
around a -, 120 home favorite. Now Saint Louis is down to -110.
16:14
You know we've seen this line really move to Philly.
16:16
At one point they were getting plus one O 5, now they're minus
16:18
one O 5. So basically we open as the
16:20
Cardinals. Very short favorite.
16:22
It's dropping closer toward a pick em game.
16:25
So slight favorite Saint Louis, but closer to a pick em game.
16:28
Pretty good bet split on Philadelphia Phillies.
16:30
They're only getting 67% of bets but 75% of money.
16:34
So slight public support but heavy sharp action.
16:36
I didn't mention the pitching matchup here.
16:39
Spencer Turnbill or Turnbull is going for Philly.
16:43
He's one and O with a 0.00 ERA. He was really good in his in his
16:47
opener was a nine to four win over the Reds.
16:49
He went five innings. No run 7K's.
16:51
He'll be opposed by Miles Michaelis.
16:53
He had a bad opener. He was better his second time.
16:56
He's making his third start tonight but he's one and one 6.1
16:58
OERA. Couple other angles though that
17:00
I'm a bank on with Philly. To me it's all about the line
17:02
move. Just the fact that it's moved so
17:04
much to Philly but also dog high total, you know, technically
17:08
Philly's still the dog. Saint Louis is a slight favorite
17:10
here, but the total of this one is 9.
17:12
So again, we always talk correlative betting.
17:14
When I'm on a favorite, I want a low total, you know, eight and a
17:17
half, eight or less dog. I want a high total, you know,
17:20
nine or more basically. So more more expected run
17:24
scored, more variance, more upset opportunities.
17:26
So this would match with a correlative betting dog high
17:29
total. Now we do have Philly's offense
17:32
slightly better, hitting 229 versus 222 for Saint Louis.
17:36
Any better team ERA 4.22 versus 4.66.
17:39
And I'll be honest, guys, I like an idiot.
17:42
I sweat Saint Louis. Yesterday they had a big sharp
17:45
line move against the O and 9 Marlins.
17:47
What happened? They got rolled and lost like 8
17:49
to 1. So I don't know how high I am on
17:52
Saint Louis here. They just seem like kind of a
17:53
flawed team. I think Philly getting a little,
17:56
you can't call it plus money anymore, but Philly taking in a
17:58
little respected action here, I'm going to take a shot here on
18:01
the Phills. So give me Philadelphia.
18:03
Shop around guys. I got the Phills at -105.
18:07
Keep on cruising. Next step for you here, guys.
18:09
Let's look toward Houston and Texas.
18:12
A big match up here in the desert and I'm going to go with
18:15
Houston. This is a fade, the trendy dog
18:17
play. Houston obviously is not off to
18:19
a very good start. They're three and seven versus
18:23
Texas, obviously, who won the World Series.
18:25
So that always comes into play here.
18:27
What I noticed about this one is a line move toward Houston and
18:31
the public's actually on Texas. I get why you're at home.
18:34
You're getting plus money. They're the Champs.
18:36
The Houston Astros haven't played very well.
18:38
So take Texas makes sense, right?
18:40
Houston is only getting 35% of bets, but nearly 50% of the
18:44
money. And the line is moving toward
18:46
Houston. Now Houston opened very short
18:48
like -120 Rd. favorite. Now Houston up.
18:51
Houston is up to like -130. Some shops even are closer to
18:54
like -140 earlier today. So if the public is all over
18:58
Texas, why is the line going to Houston?
19:01
This is a fade the trendy dog reverse line move tells me smart
19:03
money here is on Houston now pitching matchup.
19:06
We have Framber Valdez going for Houston O&O 2.19 ERA.
19:11
He'll be opposed by Andrew Heaney, another lefty O and
19:14
11.93. ERAI did lean a little bit under
19:18
here, but it's moved a lot. It opened at 10.
19:20
It's all the way down to 9 now. I missed the 9 1/2, but
19:23
hopefully a lower scoring game benefits Houston in the spot as
19:26
the favorite. But one angle that we love, Road
19:29
favorites. It's very simple, but Rd.
19:32
favorites this year are 30 and 1370%.
19:35
Been a great start here to the season.
19:37
And then you also look at to the O GS here who remember the
19:41
previous podcast that I've done, Houston against the lefty.
19:44
Now this year they're O and three not very good.
19:46
I fully admit they have not been good.
19:47
But also you're getting a pretty cheap price if Houston is, you
19:51
know, 7:00 and 3:00 instead of three and seven.
19:53
They're probably not -130 tonight.
19:55
They're probably, I don't know, -160.
19:58
So I think you're getting a kind of a buy low spot here on
20:00
Houston. But Houston against lefties,
20:03
since the start of the 2019 season, it's been consistent
20:06
every year. Houston against lefties, they
20:09
are 150 and 8564%. So that would match here with
20:14
the Houston Astros. So shop around here guys.
20:17
I'm going to fade the trendy dog.
20:18
I'm going to go with Houston hopefully to get a winner here
20:21
and I'm going with the Astros. Shop around.
20:23
I got the Strohs at -135. Keep on cruising.
20:29
Another Rd. favorite for you. Let's go Tampa Bay Rays.
20:31
Give me the Rays, guys. Rays late night are playing the
20:34
Angels. This is a match up at Angel
20:38
Stadium, 9:38 PM Eastern Time tonight, but I'm going to go
20:41
with Tampa Bay. They got a good sharp line move.
20:43
They open around -135. They're up to -140.
20:47
Some shops even closer to like -145.
20:50
They're getting around 75% of bets and money.
20:52
So kind of a combination of pro and Joe support, but in
20:55
particular pitching match up. It may not look good on paper,
20:58
but I think Eflin's the better pitcher here.
21:00
One and one 5.25 ERA. He hasn't been great this year,
21:03
but look at his track record. This guy's a pretty good
21:05
pitcher. Tyler Anderson one and oh 0.00
21:09
ERA. So I want to, you know, kind of
21:10
buy low on Eflin and sell high on Anderson.
21:13
Anderson had that one great year with the Dodgers and then signed
21:16
a big deal with the Angels. But this would match betting
21:19
system wise line move to Tampa Bay.
21:21
Tampa Bay is a road favorite as we mentioned 70% this year 30
21:25
and 13. But remember that other angle we
21:28
had that we played for the on the Red Sox couple times in a
21:30
row non division Rd. favorite off a win.
21:33
So you are a non division favorite.
21:35
Lack of familiarity benefits a better team.
21:38
You're on the road publicly and home you're you're a favorite.
21:41
You're expected to win and you're off a win.
21:43
You have some momentum. You add that up guys that non
21:45
division Rd. favorite off a win it's 11 and six this year 65
21:49
percent 16% ROI and it is 525 and three 4660% with a 4% ROI
21:57
since 2021. So it's been good this year.
21:59
It's been good historically. It matches here tonight on Tampa
22:02
Bay they have the better average.
22:04
I'm really going to bake on their bats rating 246 versus 214
22:08
excuse me, for the Angels they have the better team ERA 5.24
22:12
versus 5.58 and hopefully the bullpen of the Angels is is
22:17
taxed here. Hopefully we can you know find
22:19
an advantage in favor of Tampa Bay because the Angels they lost
22:24
to the Red Sox 12 to two yesterday it got so bad they had
22:27
they needed Miguel Sono to pitch.
22:29
So for your your your arms fear a little a little roughed up.
22:33
So I'm going to go Tampa Bay non division Rd. favorite off a win.
22:36
I got Tampa Bay shop around got them at -140.
22:41
Keep on cruising. 2 more bets for you.
22:43
Told you I had five. That's three down to to go.
22:45
Next one we'll take a shot on the Cubbies Cubbies as a dog
22:49
tonight. Cubbies are on the road against
22:50
San Diego. This has been pretty much a line
22:53
freeze, even some reverse line movement a little bit earlier.
22:56
Now there's been some buyback, but either way, Cubs are in a
23:00
pretty good spot here, matching a bunch of systems for me.
23:03
So first one, Cubs on the road, 9:40 PM Eastern Time game.
23:07
This is Javier Assad going for Chicago, one and O 0.00 ERA.
23:11
He was great in his opener. 6 innings, no runs, and a 12 to
23:14
two win against Colorado. Go up against you, Darvish.
23:18
Darvish is O and one 2.3 OERA, but what do we see across the
23:22
market here? Well, this had some reverse line
23:24
movement earlier as I mentioned this one open like around -145
23:29
for San Diego. At one point they got all the
23:31
way down to like -130. Now they're back up closer to
23:34
-140. So pretty much looking at A at a
23:37
line freeze here where the line really hasn't moved all off the
23:40
opener, but all movement liability when it has moved has
23:42
been toward Chicago. So it's kind of a 5050 line
23:46
move. Again, Publix pretty much split
23:48
here, but you do have a larger share of money on the Cubs.
23:52
Cubs are getting closer to 60% of dollars.
23:55
Cubs of the better team ERA 4 point O2 versus 4.4 O.
23:59
Cubs are playing well. They took two, just took two or
24:01
three against the Dodgers. A better run differential plus
24:05
16 for the Cubs versus A0 for the San Diego pods and the pods
24:10
are only three and four is a favorite.
24:12
So if you add it all up here, guys think it's an opportunity
24:14
to take some plus money. With Chicago, it's either stay
24:17
the same or moved in their favor.
24:19
You don't have the dog guy total, but you do have kind of a
24:23
line freezer, slight move, movement, play with the better
24:25
team who just took two or three from the Dodgers.
24:28
And I'm not a huge believer in San Diego to be honest with you.
24:30
So I'm going to back the Cubs in this one.
24:32
Shop around I got the Cubbies at plus 120.
24:37
Then last bit of the day for you, I actually screwed up the
24:40
chronological order. Maybe the eclipse has gotten me
24:42
a little screwed up here. But Seattle?
24:44
Toronto Seven O 7 game. I told you I had one more dog
24:47
for you. All right, three overall.
24:49
We hit on two of them. Here's the 3rd.
24:50
I'm going Mariners. Give me Seattle on this one.
24:53
See if we can get some plus money on Seattle.
24:56
This is a by law opportunity because Seattle has struggled
24:59
here out of the gate. If you look at the Mariners,
25:02
just pull up their win loss record.
25:05
But I know they've been a losing team so far to start the year.
25:08
Yeah, they're four and six. Toronto's 4:00 and 6:00, so I
25:11
guess they're both the same. But this one open Toronto around
25:14
-125. Toronto's now down to -120 -,
25:20
115. So line is falling away from
25:22
Toronto and towards Seattle. Seattle went from getting plus
25:26
110 to now plus one O 5. And that's important because the
25:29
public is all over the Jays. The Jays are getting 67% of
25:33
bets. So Publix on Jays is a short
25:35
favorite at home. Wise line falling away from them
25:37
towards Seattle tells us Smart money here.
25:40
Reverse line move is on the Mariners now.
25:42
Pitching matchup looks like it favors Toronto, Jose Barrillos
25:45
one and O 2.25 ERA against Luis Castillo O and two 6.75 ERA.
25:52
But again, if you'll get some of these advanced metrics.
25:54
Brios has been getting hit hard so far to start the year.
25:58
But his his numbers are good, so maybe regresses negatively.
26:01
Castillo's kind of been some hard luck to start and you
26:04
expect him to actually get better.
26:05
So it's kind of a buy low, sell high in favor of Castillo number
26:09
Seattle traded a bunch of prospects to get him from the
26:12
Reds. Seattle is the better hitting
26:15
team, 213 versus 193. Seattle has the better team ERA
26:19
4.94 versus 5.46, excuse me. And then lastly you have Toronto
26:26
playing their first game at home this year.
26:28
They started the year on A10 game road trip.
26:30
So after a very long trip your first game back, hey, this kind
26:34
of spans any every, basically every sport where it's your
26:37
first game back after a long trip.
26:39
I want to bet against that team. You know you're excited to be
26:42
home, sleep in your own bed. But then you got a lot of people
26:43
hitting you up for tickets. Family stuff.
26:46
Lot of distractions. So that is a bet against.
26:50
And I want to buy law in Seattle.
26:51
They got rolled yesterday. I actually took Milwaukee.
26:53
They they came through, but they won 12 to 4.
26:56
Seattle lost 12 to 4:00. So I want to buy law in Seattle
26:58
after a bad loss. Be at it all up.
27:01
Publix all over Toronto lines dipping a little bit towards
27:03
Seattle. Shop around guys.
27:04
I got Seattle at plus 105 S Mariners, Cubs and Philly.
27:12
Those are our dog bets and our favorites are Houston and Tampa
27:15
Bay along with the championship game under for March Madness.
27:19
With that being said, another pod here in the Books Guys
27:21
episode we'll be at. Now we're flying by.
27:24
This pod just started a couple weeks ago.
27:25
We're already up to episode 18 on the All Systems Go pod, But
27:29
reminder if you enjoy the All Systems Go Sports betting
27:32
podcast, which is powered by rhythm.
27:34
I'll tell you more about rhythm here in a second.
27:35
But if you enjoy the pod, if it's become a staple of your
27:38
day, something you look forward to.
27:41
And again, I was researching pods.
27:43
I used to do marathon pods that were, you know, 45 minutes to an
27:45
hour. And I was reading about how the
27:47
most effective and most listened to pods are between 20 and 30
27:50
minutes. So I try to keep these new ones
27:52
between 20 and 30. But if you enjoy tuning in and
27:55
listening to these breakdowns which obviously you can't really
27:58
get anywhere else. I I continue to monitor the
28:00
market. I don't really see anyone else
28:02
betting as a data-driven contrarian better but if the but
28:05
if this pod has helped you at all to become a sharper better
28:08
if you enjoy the breakdowns. Looking at betting percentages
28:11
line movement system matches, fading trendy dogs, contrarian
28:15
plays bankroll management no parlays.
28:17
If any of that is is right up your alley and it's helped you
28:20
become a better better or you just think I'm a good guy you
28:23
want to you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work
28:25
that I put in grinding in the arena each day.
28:27
Then I have two asks of you. One, can you help me grow this
28:31
pod by giving it five stars on iTunes or Spotify?
28:36
Also, can you follow the All Systems Go Twitter page at under
28:40
score ASG under score Podcast? Can you recommend it to a
28:43
friend? But again, that five star review
28:45
really goes a long way. And then secondly, can you go
28:49
buy my book or will you? Or do you want to?
28:51
Or maybe consider buying my book?
28:53
My book's got everything I've learned about the industry.
28:56
How lines are set, how and why they move, How to read line
28:58
movement, How to locate sharp action.
29:00
How to place a bet in person or online.
29:02
How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
29:04
management plan. All included in the in the
29:06
Everything Guide to Sports Betting My Baby, which you can
29:09
purchase on Amazon. With that being said, whether I
29:13
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
29:16
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
29:18
Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
29:20
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
29:23
in my neck of the woods route in the desert where the true
29:27
grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
29:29
number runners. Where the lowest chews possible
29:30
is found at the South Point or sweating sharp contrain plays at
29:34
Circa. Getting a victory burger at the
29:36
end of the night, jumping in the pool after you catch a big bet.
29:39
However, it may be you're going to walk up to me and show me
29:41
some nice tickets from Friday. Red Sox, Giants, Royals, Iowa
29:44
Money line. Show me some unders over the
29:48
weekend. Show me if you took the under in
29:50
the Yukon game or in the Purdue game.
29:52
Or of course if you faded the trendy Dog, The ultimate trendy
29:55
Dog, Caitlin Clark in Iowa and with a sharp line move towards
29:58
South Carolina. Show me that ticket as well.
30:00
And guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:02
you. We're going to post about the
30:03
book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays all
30:05
night long. So wish you the best of luck,
30:07
everyone. My parting words As always, stay
30:09
sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
30:12
Place yourself on the side of the house.
30:13
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:15
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
30:18
But remember, we're always playing that long game if we
30:20
can. Consistently find those games
30:22
that fit our model against the public with the house, with the
30:24
pros, Flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
30:27
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
30:30
And lastly, I I mentioned Rhythm a couple times.
30:33
If you haven't done it yet, go sign up for The Rhythm free,
30:37
Download the app and get the free trial.
30:39
My buddy Gary Garrison, I've noticed, has been crushing it
30:42
with his Rhythm plays and Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
30:46
betting app for data backed picks and props.
30:48
But I want you to sign up for it in a specific way.
30:51
All you got to do is go to my Twitter page, give me a follow
30:53
at Josh under score insights. There's going to be a pinned
30:56
tweet at the top of my page that mentions rhythm and you're going
31:00
to click that custom link and sign up.
31:01
You can also use the all systems go Twitter page as well with the
31:05
pin tweet. But go sign up and get ready for
31:07
a big big big time you're hopefully for.
31:11
I know golf is coming up but nbai know college is winding
31:14
down, but I agree with their NBA player props as well.
31:16
But go give rhythm a shot anyway guys, another pod here in the
31:20
books. Episode 18 Enjoy the eclipse.
31:22
Do not look at the eclipse. You know you're going to, you're
31:25
going to. You know, what is it?
31:26
You'll you'll shoot your eye out.
31:28
I know you're you'll burn your eye out.
31:29
If you stare at this eclipse. Hopefully you got those X-ray
31:32
goggles. Enjoy one of the one of the
31:35
craziest things that I've heard about.
31:36
Let's see if the hype matches the actual thing.
31:38
But I'm pretty excited about this.
31:40
I'm kind of a a nerd scientist in in in a previous life maybe.
31:44
But I'm looking forward to seeing maybe maybe what happened
31:47
when the dinosaurs went extinct, when the meet, when the when the
31:50
comet hit and then the world went black and we went to a an
31:53
Ice Age maybe. Hopefully that doesn't happen
31:55
because I want to keep betting on sports.
31:57
But anyway, guys, enjoy the eclipse.
31:59
We'll be back at it for episode 19 of the All Systems Gopod
32:02
tomorrow. Enjoy the championship game.
32:04
Let's see if we can get some of these MLB plays.
32:06
Have a great Monday everyone. Enjoy the eclipse.