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Overlooked and underestimated: How North Korea has become a security threat to Europe · SWP-Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 0: North Korea's recently revised constitution,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: which boosts
• 0:04
  Speaker 0: King Jong-un as a nuclear authority and Pyongyang's continued support for Russia's war in Ukraine on display at Moscow's victory parade this year are but two warning signs that Europe has the strategic blind spot about what it can no longer dismiss an obscure shut off dictatorship.
• 0:24
  Speaker 0: You're listening to the latest
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: podcast
• 0:26
  Speaker 0: from The German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP for short here in Berlin.
• 0:32
  Speaker 0: In today's episode we'll unpick North Korea's growing security threat to Europe – ask why it appears to have gone unnoticed?
• 0:39
  Speaker 0: And what Europe AND NATO can do about it!
• 0:43
  Speaker 0: I'm your host Esme Nicholson... ...and to discuss the nature of North Korea threats….
• 0:47
  Speaker 0: …from its intensifying alliance with Russia on its extensive cyber warfare capabilities.
• 0:52
  Speaker 0: I'm joined today by Eric Baalbach, SWP's career foundation fellow.
• 0:56
  Speaker 0: In addition to his research, Eric's expertise has been put to use in numerous informal dialogues between North Korea, South Korea and the United States.
• 1:05
  Speaker 0: Eric thank you for coming into this studio today.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Thank You so much for having me!
• 1:21
  Speaker 0: I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: think it's absolutely crucial to acknowledge that the North Korea of today is not the North Korean of two thousand eighteen, two thousand nineteen when we last dealt with Pyongyang diplomatically.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: It has fundamentally changed its foreign policy strategy also security strategy.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And this changed.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: followed what the North Koreans deemed as a failure of diplomacy, especially summit diplomacy with the US.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: We all remember that three summit meetings between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump during his first term And the failure of Hanoi summit ultimately led to a fundamental revision in North Korea's foreign and security strategy.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: In terms of foreign policy, this meant that it stopped diplomacy with
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: U.S.,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: but also South Korea as we will discuss probably later – also Europe.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: And in terms of security strategy, Kim Jong-un announced January the so called five year military modernization plan.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So a wish list on what Kim Jong Un deemed important to turn the country into what they describe now as fortified nuclear power?
• 2:41
  Speaker 0: These are
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: part of it.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Yes, the changes to the constitutions are a part of this.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: in twenty-twenty two North Korea announced new nuclear doctrine that basically lowered the threshold off any given nuclear power.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: uh... to do with degree we have never seen before on its also delegated power all in terms of who is actually able in north korea Basically, say when a nuclear weapon should be used or not.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: And all of these revisions basically are part of this new foreign and security strategy.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: That also made North Korea greater threat to Europe because one the elements was that North Korea changed its diplomacy away from
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: U.S.,
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  Speaker 1: South Korea in Europe towards China mainly Russia.
• 3:36
  Speaker 0: Well, and as mentioned North Korean soldiers marched alongside Russian troops in Moscow this year's victory parade.
• 3:44
  Speaker 0: In Russia beyond the symbolism how would you define The Putin-Kim partnership right now?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Well, I would say that this cooperation between North Korea and Russia has evolved from tactical alignment more to something much more operational now.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: It is still transactional at its core but it's increasingly strategic in scope crucial to understand.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: It's not so much an ideologically based cooperation, it is a win-win situation.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: North Korea has something to offer what the Russians need and vice versa.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: The Russian needed political support for their war against Ukraine.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They needed military support in terms of ammunition missiles but also troops manpower And the North Koreans in turn needed food, energy assistance but also support its strategic military programs especially when we talk about re-entry technology of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: But also nuclear powered submarines – all these are connected now to co-closer cooperation with Russia.
• 5:03
  Speaker 0: Well, with North Korean soldiers fighting on European soil the threat is becoming more obvious to Europe.
• 5:13
  Speaker 0: So tell me exactly it that Pyongyang getting out of its support for Russia in its war against Ukraine?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: For the North Koreans, I would say there are economic political strategic and military benefits to support Russia economically.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Of course we know about deliveries of weapons And we think that North Korea gained dramatic financial gains from this.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: There is some estimates put the total revenues of over five hundred million solely from the deployment of troops, with others saying more than ten billions they made from selling those weapons.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: So this is significant.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: but apart from uh...the actual number here I would say North Korea also gained politically and strategically.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: for years they have engaged in denuclearization dialogues mainly with the objective of weakening international sanctions.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: They have now achieved the weakening of the sanctions regime without giving anything on the denuclearization issue, only through strategic cooperation with Russia and Russia vetoed the mandate for the panel of experts in the UN Security Council which basically meant that supervision of sanctions implementation drastically decreased.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: They achieved one of their main strategic objectives through this closer cooperation with Russia.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So achieving one of those strategic aims as well.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: And, ultimately there are also military benefits.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: The war in Ukraine serves a testing ground for North Korea's ammunition weapons and personnel Those weapons used by the Russians against Ukraine.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: These information about their war capability are funneled back to North Korea.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: They use these informations further perfecting their weapon system.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: North Korean soldiers gaining active war fighting experience, especially in a more modern war scenario where drones are used heavily and relied upon.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: But ultimately of course we see a lot of signs that Russia also supports North Korea internally militarily giving strategic advice to some of those aspects that the North Koreans have not yet perfected themselves, and that is mainly re-entry technology of ballistic missiles.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Reconnaissance satellites – one which has been now successfully deployed by the North Korean.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: And we have signs that the Russians support the North Korea in terms building up a nuclear powered submarine fleet.
• 8:18
  Speaker 0: And of course, North Korea is not just a nuclear threat.
• 8:20
  Speaker 0: It has become one of the biggest cyber threats to Europe.
• 8:24
  Speaker 0: as I understand it – how cognizant are Brussels and the broader public about this?
• 8:30
  Speaker 0: Tell us maybe a little bit more what's already happening.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: You know, to be perfectly honest I still think that most policy makers struggle to accept North Korea has become an equal nation in terms of cyber capabilities.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: We hear a lot about this reputation of Pyongyang being isolated and underdeveloped state but Pyong Yang implemented comprehensive program to advance cyber technology and systematically cultivate human capital around it.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: There is, of course no official data on the structure of various advanced persistent threat groups in North Korea.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But it has been estimated that the DPRK cyber army consists roughly seven thousand specialists all working under direction of the reconnaissance general bureau which Only throughout twenty-twenty four just to give you an impression of how deep this actually goes only in twenty, twenty for a DPR.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: KDPRK IT workers have significantly expanded their operations beyond the US now increasingly targeting organizations across Europe with increased targeting of companies.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: In Germany Portugal and the UK in its threat security and a thread landscape.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: In twenty-twenty five, which the EU's agency for cyber security identifies the most significant cyber threats to Europe?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: North Korea is ranked now as third largest threat to Europe following only Russia and China.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I would say.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: overall North Korea's cyber operations in and against Europe can be divided into two main categories.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: These are financially motivated attacks such as cryptocurrency thefts, the other being cyber espionage.
• 10:32
  Speaker 0: Cyber crime and espionages?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Exactly!
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: For example, North Korean cyber actors target various institutions in Europe linked to, for example the defense sector but also the health and energy sector.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: They attacked various government-linked agencies.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: In the past we saw effects of North Korean cyber attacks on the German railway system on individual companies And especially defence companies have become primarily targeted because South Korea now is a very active provider of defense goods to Europe.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Vice versa, for example German defense companies export weapons system to South Korea which South Korea then uses in its defensive strategy against North Korea.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: so the North Koreans want know what's behind it also develop technology to circumvent these systems and especially missile defense systems.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Europe has become one of the primary targets by North Korean cyber actors.
• 11:41
  Speaker 0: I'd like to come in a minute what the solutions are, what Europe can do and should be doing about all these threats that North Korea poses but specifically on cybersecurity.
• 11:55
  Speaker 0: how resilient is Europe cyber security threats, in particular from North Korea considering it's a fairly new threat.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: You know our resiliency is certainly not where it should be and that also results that North Korean activities
• 12:18
  Speaker 0: big
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  Speaker 1: operations that have been reported everywhere.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It's small scale attacks, low key attacks but very broadly and how deep it goes.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I can give you an example sometimes hard to believe.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: then in late twenty-twenty four there was an IT worker from North Korea.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: this is one of their schemes too use online platforms to get basically into European companies through fake IDs Korean case known, he had at the same time twelve different identities throughout the U.S and Europe trying to get into employment at European defense companies but also government-linked institutions.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that of course is one They're in.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: You know, they try to install software that gives them permanent access to these institutions.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: They use schemes then basically to gather information within the institutions and then used this informations against those companies for example... ...they attack a lot of cryptocurrency rates also in Europe making millions and millions with these schemes.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And they use a vast network also of friendly cooperation partners.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Especially now also in Russia, we have increased information that Russia and North Korea cooperate on cyber issues with Russians giving North Koreans access into certain networks.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: All of this is extremely dangerous considering the fact to North Korea – this all part a larger strategy.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Cyber has become part their geopolitical security strategies And the money they make through, for example cryptocurrency heists directly funds their military modernization.
• 14:22
  Speaker 0: Right okay so Europe is inadvertently part of and supporting in financing that there are military goals under it.
• 14:30
  Speaker 0: also Russia's war in Ukraine.
• 14:32
  Speaker 0: well all these threats surely a wake-up call Brussels for NATO, European governments or policy makers.
• 14:43
  Speaker 0: To what extent are they aware?
• 14:45
  Speaker 0: Are they already acting and what should be done?
• 14:48
  Speaker 0: What can?
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: European officials have not heard this wake-up call just yet, especially when with regard to North Korea's cyber threat.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: What we can target of course are the mechanisms through which North Korea and Russia jointly try to circumvent sanctions for example because this is one of things that bound them together And This Is Why We See That This Cooperation Goes Way Beyond Military Issues.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Nowadays Already do.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: And I think this is a very good sign, for example that the German intelligence service and South Korean intelligence services have two times now issued joint cybersecurity advisories with regard to North Korean cyber threats.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: but these are more.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: one of things i think what needs To be done much More Is A Much Deeper Intelligence Sharing.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: But to do this, we need certain agreements in place which we don't have yet because South Korea is neither a NATO nor an EU member of course.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: So we need agreement like structural freedom-of information security agreements... ...which then allows us go much deeper with intelligence sharing.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: And this is absolutely crucial given that North Korean soldiers are supporting, or the most active supporter of Russia's war in Europe.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Given that North Korea is so active on the cyber front against and in Europe –and we still don't have all these intelligence sharing agreements is quite unusual, I think because the EU for example has such agreements in place with non-EU members.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Think about Canada or Japan.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: but we need something like this also with the South Koreans.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: that was... This would be one of things on the to do list In a way The other being much stricter against North Korean cyber operations.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: But again, with life intelligence sharing all of this becomes much more realistic to achieve.
• 16:56
  Speaker 0: Well and zooming out because Europe of course doesn't act in a bubble... ...and also returning to the point you made about how North Korea has changed since The Hanoi Summit With Trump To what extent does US foreign policy In the region help?
• 17:13
  Speaker 0: or even hinder Europe right now?
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Well, we don't have a clear North Korea strategy from the US just yet.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: There are still many observers that expect return at least probably on Donald Trump's wish list to return of these summit meetings.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: but you know in my view this would be a case Because ultimately, where we are right now is not least one of the effects of the failed summit diplomacy between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in first place.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: And now North Korea.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: as mentioned earlier it's a very different actor.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: It has gained strategic leverage through Russia's war against Ukraine which I would even say that North Korea's revised foreign security strategy only worked due to those geopolitical changes.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: They were only successfully implemented because Russia started this war against Ukraine, of which North Korea is one.
• 18:23
  Speaker 0: So, while anxiety about Russia shows no sign of abating Europe now also has its work cut out to address the growing threat from even further afield.
• 18:32
  Speaker 0: Eric we will no doubt return you for more analysis on how that goes but today I'd like thank you for shedding fresh light onto an issue.
• 18:42
  Speaker 0: Europe appears only just be beginning places including Spotify
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: and Apple.
• 18:55
  Speaker 0: You can also keep up to date with the latest analyses from SWP on Blue Sky, and on LinkedIn.
• 19:01
  Speaker 0: Today's episode was brought you by our editor
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Maya Dana
• 19:04
  Speaker 0: And my host and of course by guest Erich Baibach.
• 19:08
  Speaker 0: So until next time it is goodbye for all of us here in The SWP Studio.
• 19:12
  Speaker 0: Thankyou For Tuning In.