Latest / The House Never Wins / We Break Down The NFL 2026 Divisions | The House Never Wins – LCNG #103

Transcript

We Break Down The NFL 2026 Divisions | The House Never Wins – LCNG #103 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Let's rank this divisions
• 0:03
  - strongest first.
• 0:05
  - Okay? Number one, NFC West with saddle, Rams,
• 0:09
  - San Francisco.
• 0:11
  - That's ridiculous.
• 0:12
  - Hello, everyone.
• 0:13
  - The NFL season, it's coming. And today, we're
• 0:17
  - looking at the league from a completely
• 0:19
  - different angle.
• 0:21
  - Forget Super Bowl. Forget Super Bowl futures for
• 0:25
  - a second.
• 0:26
  - Forget about MVPs.
• 0:28
  - We are going division
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  - by division.
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  - Because if you're betting NFL Futures, one of
• 0:34
  - the most important questions
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  - isn't simply, who's the best team?
• 0:40
  - It's who has the easiest path to winning
• 0:43
  - their division.
• 0:44
  - Hi, Pau. Hi, buddy. Exactly. We are looking
• 0:48
  - at all eight division and asking which division
• 0:51
  - is the most competitive?
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  - Which one has the biggest gap between the
• 0:56
  - best and worst teams?
• 0:58
  - Where could one team have a relatively
• 1:02
  - easy path to title? And most importantly,
• 1:05
  - who are we betting to win each division?
• 1:08
  - We're also looking for potential value
• 1:11
  - because the team with the shortest odds
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  - isn't automatically
• 1:16
  - the team we want to bet. Let's get
• 1:19
  - into it. Starting in the AFC East with
• 1:23
  - the Buffalo, New England, Miami, the Jets,
• 1:27
  - and Buffalo and Fabi is the team we
• 1:29
  - are both taking.
• 1:31
  - The Bills have the quarterback, the experience, and
• 1:34
  - the overall consistency to be the safest pick,
• 1:37
  - but
• 1:38
  - this isn't an easy division. So New England
• 1:41
  - won it last season. So here's a legitimate
• 1:45
  - challenger.
• 1:47
  - Miami, for me, is the wild card. If
• 1:50
  - they are healthy and the offense works,
• 1:53
  - they can make this uncomfortable.
• 1:56
  - The jets are the biggest question mark.
• 1:59
  - So I call this 7.5
• 2:02
  - out of 10 in competition, Fabi. Not the
• 2:05
  - strongest division, but definitely
• 2:07
  - not a free pass.
• 2:09
  - And that's why I don't love
• 2:12
  - blind betting's buffalo at my price.
• 2:16
  - Exactly.
• 2:17
  - So our pick, Buffalo Bills, betting angle, strong
• 2:21
  - team, but watch the price.
• 2:24
  - Now we're talking about violence.
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  - AFC
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  - North with Baltimore, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh, Cleveland.
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  - Yes. This club is one of the toughest
• 2:35
  - divisions in football. Baltimore is the favorite, and
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  - Lamar Jackson gives them an enormous advantage. But
• 2:42
  - Cincinnati
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  - has a Joe Burrow.
• 2:45
  - Pittsburgh can make games ugly, and Cleveland isn't
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  - a team you casually
• 2:50
  - walk into and expect an easy win.
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  - This is a division where everybody
• 2:55
  - knows everybody, and those divisional games can completely
• 3:00
  - change
• 3:01
  - the standards.
• 3:02
  - So, Fauci, I'd give this
• 3:04
  - nine out of 10 competition.
• 3:07
  - Winner?
• 3:09
  - I'm gonna say Baltimore.
• 3:11
  - You guys? Same. Same. Same. Same. Our pick,
• 3:14
  - Baltimore Ravens, the betting angle,
• 3:17
  - great team, brutal division.
• 3:19
  - Don't overpay
• 3:20
  - for the favorite.
• 3:22
  - Now let's look at the opposite situation,
• 3:25
  - AFC South. We have Houston, Jacksonville,
• 3:29
  - Indianapolis, and
• 3:30
  - Tennessee.
• 3:31
  - Yes. Houston is our favorite here. Why?
• 3:35
  - Because this is probably one of the divisions
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  - where the favorite has the clearest path, Fabi.
• 3:41
  - Yes. And that's important for future bettors. You
• 3:43
  - know? You don't necessarily need the best team
• 3:46
  - in football. You need a team that can
• 3:49
  - consistently
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  - bet the teams in front of it.
• 3:53
  - Exactly, Fabi. So Houston doesn't have to dominate
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  - the AFC.
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  - They need to beat Jacksonville,
• 4:00
  - Indianapolis,
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  - and Tennessee
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  - often enough and take care of business
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  - elsewhere.
• 4:07
  - And you know what, Pau? This is probably
• 4:09
  - one of the weakest
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  - divisions
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  - overall.
• 4:13
  - Yes. I'm agree. So I'd say five out
• 4:16
  - of 10 competition.
• 4:17
  - And that makes Houston
• 4:19
  - interesting or pick Houston, Texas Texans. The betting
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  - angle, one of the clearest spots for a
• 4:25
  - division
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  - favorite. Now,
• 4:28
  - here's where I disagree with you. AFC West
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  - Pow,
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  - Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers,
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  - Denver, Las Vegas.
• 4:38
  - Fabi, Kansas City is still my pick. Patrick
• 4:41
  - Mahomes,
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  - experience,
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  - coaching, and until somebody takes the division away
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  - from them, I'm not going to overthink it.
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  - But I'm taking the Chargers, pal.
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  - Okay. Here we go.
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  - Because because this isn't
• 4:57
  - the old AFC West. The Chargers are legitimate.
• 5:01
  - Denver is also good enough to make this
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  - uncomfortable, Pau.
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  - I like it. That's fair. This could be
• 5:08
  - one of those divisions where three teams are
• 5:11
  - still alive late in the season, Fabi.
• 5:14
  - Exactly, Pau. Nine out of 10 competition.
• 5:18
  - So I'm taking Kansas City.
• 5:20
  - I'm taking the Chargers.
• 5:23
  - Chiefs.
• 5:24
  - Chargers. Chargers.
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  - The betting angle don't automatically
• 5:28
  - pay the Chiefs premium just because they are
• 5:31
  - the Chiefs, you know?
• 5:33
  - Yes. Now let's talk about NFC
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  - East, Philadelphia,
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  - Dallas, Washington,
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  - and New York.
• 5:41
  - Philadelphia is the obvious pick.
• 5:44
  - Yes, Bobby. And that's why this division is
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  - interesting from a future
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  - perspective. Philadelphia has the strongest
• 5:51
  - overall profile,
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  - but Washington and Dallas can absolutely complicate things.
• 5:58
  - And we can forget that divisional games are
• 6:01
  - different. Dallas could have a terrible season and
• 6:05
  - still ruin Philadelphia's
• 6:07
  - record twice.
• 6:09
  - Yes. Exactly, Bobby. I'll call this 7.5
• 6:13
  - out of 10 competition.
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  - But I'm not getting cute. Philadelphia
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  - wins.
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  - Agreed. Absolutely.
• 6:20
  - And so our pick Philadelphia
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  - Eagles and the betting angle, strong favorite, but
• 6:26
  - look for a better price
• 6:28
  - rather than forcing the future bet early.
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  - Now this
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  - is my absolute
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  - favorite division to watch. The NFC
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  - North with Detroit,
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  - with the Green Bay, with Chicago, with Minnesota.
• 6:43
  - And this, Fabi, could be absolutely brutal.
• 6:46
  - Detroit is our pick, but Chicago won the
• 6:50
  - division last season. So Green Bay also is
• 6:53
  - dangerous and Minnesota
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  - can compete.
• 6:57
  - And here is the important vetting angle. Attention.
• 7:00
  - Chicago has one of the toughest
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  - schedules in the entire
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  - NFL based on opponents.
• 7:07
  - Twenty twenty five win percent.
• 7:10
  - Yes, Fabi. Exactly. That's doesn't add
• 7:15
  - exactly, Fabi. That doesn't automatically
• 7:18
  - mean Chicago will be bad, but it doesn't
• 7:22
  - mean the road to departing becomes much farther.
• 7:27
  - I don't know about you, but Detroit gets
• 7:29
  - my boat.
• 7:30
  - Mine too, Bobby. So our pick,
• 7:33
  - Detroit Lions and the betting angle Detroit has
• 7:36
  - the combination of team quality and more manageable
• 7:40
  - path.
• 7:42
  - Now this is where I see an interest
• 7:44
  - in sleeper. NFC South, Tampa Bay, Atlanta,
• 7:48
  - Carolina, and New Orleans, Pau.
• 7:52
  - I'm gonna say Tampa is my pick, Bobby.
• 7:55
  - I'm taking Atlanta.
• 7:57
  - And I understand why, Bobby, because Atlanta has
• 8:00
  - one of the more favorite
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  - schedules in the NFL.
• 8:04
  - Exactly. And this is what we're talking about
• 8:08
  - when we said path to victory. You don't
• 8:11
  - need to be an elite NFL
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  - team if the division
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  - is relative weak and the schedule gives you
• 8:19
  - opportunities.
• 8:20
  - Pappy, but Tampa is still the more reliable
• 8:23
  - choice for me. So Tampa Bay?
• 8:26
  - No. Atlanta.
• 8:29
  - And I rate this division 5.5
• 8:32
  - out of 10 competition. And the very betting
• 8:34
  - angle, Atlanta is one of our favorite sleeper
• 8:38
  - divisions
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  - place. Now we get to the monster, the
• 8:42
  - NFC
• 8:43
  - West
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  - with the Rams, with Seattle, with San Francisco,
• 8:47
  - with Arizona.
• 8:49
  - Yes. This easily one of the toughest divisions,
• 8:52
  - Fabi. And the crazy part, you know what
• 8:54
  - is? Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion.
• 8:58
  - So the Rams are also
• 9:00
  - one of the league biggest contenders.
• 9:03
  - And then you have San Francisco.
• 9:06
  - This pow, this is a division where you
• 9:08
  - don't want to pay a huge
• 9:11
  - price on a favorite because every divisional
• 9:15
  - game can be dangerous.
• 9:17
  - Exactly, Bobby.
• 9:19
  - So I'm gonna give this 10 out of
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  - 10 competition.
• 9:24
  - I'm taking Seattle.
• 9:26
  - They won the Super Bowl.
• 9:29
  - I I'm taking the Rams.
• 9:33
  - So we got another disagreement.
• 9:36
  - Run. And?
• 9:38
  - Seahawks. For me, the Seahawks and the betting
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  - angle
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  - strongest division but potentially
• 9:44
  - the worst environment
• 9:46
  - for blindly betting a favorite.
• 9:49
  - Okay.
• 9:50
  - Let's rank this division's
• 9:53
  - strongest
• 9:54
  - first.
• 9:55
  - Okay? And number one, NFC West with Saddle,
• 9:59
  - Rams, San Francisco.
• 10:01
  - That's ridiculous.
• 10:03
  - Number two,
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  - AFC
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  - West with the Chiefs, Chargers, Denver,
• 10:08
  - three legitimate teams.
• 10:11
  - Now number three,
• 10:13
  - AFC North, Baltimore, and Cincinnati at the top
• 10:16
  - with with Pittsburgh always capable of making things
• 10:20
  - difficult.
• 10:22
  - Number four,
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  - NFC North, Detroit,
• 10:26
  - Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota.
• 10:28
  - That could be a word.
• 10:30
  - Now, Fabi, let's play Pero. Which divisions have
• 10:34
  - the easiest path?
• 10:36
  - AFC
• 10:37
  - South.
• 10:38
  - Absolutely.
• 10:39
  - Houston is my favorite example of a team
• 10:42
  - that doesn't need to be the best team
• 10:44
  - in the conference. They just need to constantly
• 10:47
  - beat the teams inside their divisions.
• 10:51
  - And NFC South, that's where I think Atlanta
• 10:55
  - gets interesting.
• 10:56
  - Yes. But especially because of the schedule, if
• 10:59
  - you're looking at division futures, that's exactly what
• 11:02
  - you should be searching for. A good team
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  - in a weak division.
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  - Or even better, a good team with a
• 11:11
  - favorable schedule
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  - in a weak division.
• 11:18
  - Now
• 11:19
  - let's put everything on a table.
• 11:22
  - Eight divisions, eight winners, Paul.
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  - Okay. AFC East, Buffalo Bills.
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  - AFC
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  - North, Baltimore Ravens.
• 11:33
  - AFC South, Houston, Texas.
• 11:36
  - AFC West, Kansas City Chiefs.
• 11:40
  - NFC
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  - East, Philadelphia Eagles.
• 11:44
  - NFC
• 11:45
  - North, Detroit Lions.
• 11:47
  - NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• 11:51
  - NFC West Seattle Seahawks.
• 11:55
  - And we have three disagreements,
• 11:57
  - Fabi. Chargers versus Chiefs,
• 12:00
  - Atlanta versus Tampa, and Seattle versus Rams.
• 12:05
  - And, Pau, those are those are exactly the
• 12:08
  - divisions where the price is going to matter.
• 12:11
  - Because if you're betting futures, you're you're not
• 12:14
  - just betting
• 12:16
  - who do I think it's better? You're betting,
• 12:19
  - is this the price
• 12:21
  - work the risk? So there you have it.
• 12:25
  - A divisions or winners or strongest division or
• 12:28
  - weakest division
• 12:30
  - at the teams we think have the easiest
• 12:33
  - path to the playoffs.
• 12:35
  - But remember, people, the best team isn't always
• 12:38
  - the best future bet. Sometimes the value comes
• 12:41
  - from the team with the weaker competition,
• 12:44
  - the easier schedule,
• 12:46
  - the healthier roster,
• 12:48
  - and the better price.
• 12:51
  - And that's what we'll be watching all season
• 12:54
  - because one thing is guaranteed.
• 12:57
  - There will be a division that completely surprise
• 13:01
  - us.
• 13:02
  - Yes. And there will be a division where
• 13:04
  - we look back in December and say,
• 13:07
  - we should have seen that coming.
• 13:10
  - And that's it for la casa no gana.
• 13:14
  - So good luck for all of you with
• 13:16
  - your futures.
• 13:18
  - And remember, la casa no gana and we
• 13:21
  - are be waiting for you on all our
• 13:23
  - platforms, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Discord.
• 13:26
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• 13:29
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• 13:31
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• 13:33
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• 13:36
  - all your money. See you next time. Bye.
• 13:38
  - See you next week.