Latest / Stock Picking with Fexingo: Individual Equities, Research, and Building a Concentrated Portfolio / Why Tesla Surged 8 Percent While Apple Dropped 4 Percent in June 2026
Transcript
- Lucas: Alright, the S&P 500 closed at 7,440 yesterday — up 1 percent on the week — and the Dow crossed 52,000 for the first time. But the real story, the one that jumps off the screen if you're a stock picker, is the divergence between two of the biggest names in the index: Tesla up nearly 8 percent in the past five days, Apple down more than 4 percent. Luna: That's a massive gap. Tesla at 411 and change, Apple at 281. Two megacap tech stocks, totally different directions. What's driving it? Lucas: Let's start with Tesla. The rally this week feels like a recognition that the narrative around the company has shifted. For years Tesla was just an electric-vehicle play — and that part of the story has been under pressure, with competition from BYD and legacy automakers. But what's now getting priced in is the energy-storage business. Luna: Right, the Megapack and Powerwall stuff. I saw that Tesla's energy storage deployments more than doubled last quarter year-over-year. That's becoming a real earnings driver. Lucas: Exactly. And the margins on that business are actually higher than the auto segment. So investors are starting to model Tesla less as a car company and more as an integrated energy infrastructure play. The stock's forward price to earnings ratio is still elevated — around 70 times — but the growth rate in energy could justify some of that premium if it sustains. Luna: Meanwhile Apple is getting hit. What's the bear case there? Lucas: Apple's drop is more about uncertainty around the iPhone cycle and a broader rotation out of passive megacap darlings. The stock had a huge run in 2025, and now the market is asking: what's the next catalyst? Services revenue is growing, but it's not accelerating fast enough to offset a potential slowdown in iPhone upgrades. And Apple's valuation at 30 times earnings leaves little room for error. Luna: So Tesla gets rewarded for a new narrative, Apple gets punished for a stale one. That feels like exactly the kind of divergence active stock pickers should be paying attention to. Lucas: It is. And this is where the concentrated portfolio thesis comes in. If you're building a portfolio of 15 to 20 stocks, you don't need to own both Tesla and Apple just because they're both in the S&P 500. You can pick the one whose risk-reward profile fits your view. Right now, the market is giving you two very different signals. Luna: But isn't that risky? If you pick wrong, you miss out on half the megacap rally. Lucas: Sure, but the whole point of concentration is that you're making explicit bets. You're saying: I have a higher conviction in this company's next three years than in that one's. And the data supports that approach — the top 20 stocks in the S&P 500 have seen their average correlation to each other drop over the past six months. That means stock-specific factors matter more now than they did in 2024. Luna: So the macro tailwind that lifted all boats is fading, and now individual company execution is what separates winners from losers. Lucas: Exactly. And look at the numbers: Apple is down 4.3 percent in a week where the S&P 500 is up 1 percent. That's a clear underperformance. Tesla is up 7.9 percent. The market is telling you something about each company's trajectory. As a stock picker, you have to decide whether you trust that signal or think it's overdone. Luna: Which side do you lean on? Lucas: I think Tesla's energy story is real and still underappreciated. The auto business is messy, but the cash flow from energy could fund the next wave of growth. Apple, on the other hand, I worry is becoming a value trap — great company, strong brand, but the multiple leaves little upside unless services really accelerates. I'd rather own Tesla here. Luna: Interesting. And just to tie this back to portfolio construction: if you're building a concentrated portfolio, would you overweight Tesla or just take a position and balance it with something else? Lucas: I'd take a full position — maybe 5 to 6 percent of the portfolio — but I'd pair it with a more defensive name that benefits from the same energy theme but with less volatility. Something like NextEra Energy, which has a large renewable portfolio and trades at 20 times earnings. That way you get exposure to the energy transition without putting all your chips on Tesla's execution. Luna: That makes sense. And if Apple continues to drop, at what point does it become attractive? Lucas: If Apple gets down to 24 or 25 times earnings — which would be around $240 — I'd start looking. That's where the dividend yield gets close to 1.5 percent and the services growth starts to matter more. But at 30 times, it's still priced for perfection. Luna: So the key takeaway for listeners: don't just buy the megacap dip blindly. Look at the individual stories and ask whether the market's selloff is rational or emotional. Lucas: Exactly. And that kind of disciplined analysis is exactly what we try to do on this show — dig into the numbers, understand the narratives, and help you make better decisions. If you found today's episode useful, we'd love to keep this ad-free and listener-supported. You can help by buying us a coffee at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a simple way to ensure we keep doing deep dives like this without any sponsor noise. Luna: Yeah, it really does make a difference. We hear from listeners who say these episodes help them think about stocks differently. If that's you, the support is appreciated but never expected. Lucas: Alright, let's get back to the market. One more thing I want to highlight: the Russell 2000 is up 1.2 percent this week, outperforming the S&P 500. That's the small-cap index finally showing some life. And it's happening while megacap tech is under pressure. Luna: That's a big deal. Small caps have been lagging for years. If the rotation continues, it could open up a lot of opportunities for stock pickers who look beyond the top 10 names. Lucas: Absolutely. And that's a topic for another episode. For now, the message is: don't let the index level fool you. Under the hood, the market is sending very specific signals. Tesla versus Apple is just one example. There are dozens of similar divergences happening right now. Luna: Alright, that's a great place to leave it. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next time.