Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / The NotebookLM Brief: Two Satellites, Two Destinies

Transcript

The NotebookLM Brief: Two Satellites, Two Destinies · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

0:06
This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
0:10
Where we just basically come your phone and be seamless
0:14
regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
0:16
know that it's connected by satellite.
0:21
Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
0:28
Have you ever been out in the middle of nowhere?
0:30
Oh yeah. Like maybe you're off roading,
0:32
or you're hiking some remote trail or just, you know, driving
0:36
a really long stretch of Hwy. through the mountain.
0:38
Right. And you just know what's coming.
0:40
Exactly. You glance down at your phone
0:42
and you see it. That dreaded no service
0:45
indicator. It's a terrible feeling.
0:47
It really is, and it's wild to think about really, because you
0:52
are holding a device with, I mean, it's got more processing
0:56
power than the computers that landed Apollo on the moon.
0:59
Far more. Yeah, it's packed with advanced
1:01
modems and all this incredible silicon, yet the absolute second
1:05
you step outside the invisible perimeter of a terrestrial cell
1:09
tower grid. It's a brick.
1:11
It becomes completely useless for communication and for anyone
1:14
who follows telecommunications. I mean, we've basically just
1:18
accepted this as a rigid limitation of the
1:20
infrastructure. Because towers are expensive.
1:23
Right lane fiber backhaul is expensive, covering every single
1:26
square inch of the globe with steel structures.
1:28
Just it isn't economically viable.
1:31
No, it's impossible. But The thing is, we are
1:34
currently standing on the precipice of a massive
1:37
architectural shift. We were looking at a near future
1:40
where the whole concept of a dead zone similarly ceases to
1:44
exist. Which is a profound shift.
1:46
It is, and we aren't talking about carrying around a
1:49
specialized bulky satellite phone with a massive pull out
1:52
antenna. Right.
1:53
Not the old briefcase phones, no.
1:56
We are talking about the exact standard, unmodified smartphone
1:59
sitting in your pocket right now, connecting directly to a
2:02
satellite in space. A Holy Grail.
2:04
Yeah, the promise of direct device or DTD mobile broadband.
2:08
And it represents A fundamental paradigm shift in how we think
2:11
about network topology. I mean, for the entire history
2:14
of mobile communications, our infrastructure has been anchored
2:17
to the ground. Literally bolted to the dirt.
2:19
Exactly. We have built networks in 2
2:21
dimensions. We're constantly navigating
2:24
topography, zoning laws, and the sheer physical limits of radio
2:28
frequency propagation through physical obstacles like
2:31
buildings and trees. Right.
2:32
The DTD revolution is really about moving the cell tower
2:36
infrastructure into low earth orbit.
2:38
It takes A2 dimensional terrestrial grid and makes it 3
2:40
dimensional. Which completely rewrites the
2:42
economics. And the physics of global
2:44
connectivity. And today we have a very
2:47
specific, highly detailed lens through which to examine how
2:51
this space race is actually playing out behind the scenes.
2:54
Exactly. And that is is exactly what we
2:57
are putting under the microscope today.
2:58
You're taking a deep dive into a newly released, incredibly
3:02
comprehensive investment research report from Crossroads
3:05
Capital A. Fascinating document.
3:07
Just for context for you guys listening, this report is dated
3:10
March 5, 2026. Crossroads Capital is a
3:13
prominent investment fund and back in the fourth quarter of
3:16
2025, they released this massive 70 plus page report exclusively
3:21
to their limited partners. They're internal investors.
3:24
Right. However, they have recently
3:26
begun publishing abridged excerpts of this research to the
3:29
public, and they're aiming it directly at a highly passionate
3:32
online community of retail investors and telecom analysts
3:36
known as the ASTS Space Mob. They are a very vocal community
3:40
online. Very vocal, very informed.
3:42
So our mission today is to unpack the central thesis of
3:45
this Crossroads Capital research.
3:47
And it is a bold thesis. Very bold.
3:50
They make a highly technical case for why they believe AST
3:54
Space Mobile, which is this relatively small company
3:57
operating out of West, TX, is both technologically and
4:00
commercially superior to Elon Musk's Starlink in the race to
4:04
dominate D2D mobile broadband. But before we dig into the
4:08
actual engineering and the physics outlined in this
4:10
research, it is crucial that we establish the parameters of our
4:13
discussion here. Yes, very important.
4:15
We are not financial advisors. We are not endorsing AST Space
4:18
Mobile, we are not endorsing Starlink and we are not
4:20
recommending any specific stock equity or investment strategy.
4:24
None of the above. We are strictly acting as
4:27
impartial guides. Our role today is to decode the
4:30
technological arguments, the physics models, and the network
4:34
architecture strategies presented in this Crossroads
4:36
Capital thesis. Just looking at the tech.
4:38
Exactly. Our goal is to analyze the
4:40
mechanics of how this technology works, the regulatory hurdles
4:44
involved, and the implications of these different engineering
4:47
philosophies so you can understand the complexities of
4:50
this emerging sector. OK, let's unpack this because
4:52
the very first hurdle Crossroads brings up isn't a business
4:56
problem or a marketing challenge.
4:58
No, it's a harsh reality. It is a harsh, uncompromising
5:01
problem of physics. When we are talking about a
5:04
satellite in low Earth orbit, or Leo, we are dealing with an
5:09
object flying roughly 500 to 700 kilometers above the surface of
5:14
the Earth. That is a massive distance for a
5:16
radio wave. Massive.
5:18
And if you understand basic radio frequency mechanics, you
5:21
know that the limiting factor here isn't necessarily the
5:23
satellite. It's the phone.
5:25
It's the smartphone. The modem and the tiny antenna
5:28
inside your phone are designed to talk to a cell tower maybe a
5:31
few miles away at most. Just down the street.
5:33
Right, they simply do not have the power output to scream a
5:36
signal 500 kilometers straight up through the atmosphere.
5:39
And that is the immovable constraint that every single
5:43
player in the DTD space must confront.
5:45
A standard smartphone operates under incredibly strict physical
5:49
and thermal limitations. You can't just pump more power
5:52
into it. You'd burn the user's hand.
5:54
The antenna is physically miniscule, tucked away inside a
5:57
glass and metal chassis, and it relies on a small lithium ion
6:01
battery. The transmission power is
6:03
heavily regulated. Regulated to what exactly?
6:06
Typically operating at just a fraction of a Watt, and that's
6:09
to prevent the device from overheating and to conserve
6:11
battery life. So it's basically whispering.
6:14
Yes, and when you apply the physics of free space path loss
6:17
to that whisper, the signal degradation over a 500 to 700
6:22
kilometer distance is immense. The signal just scatters.
6:25
The energy disperses exponentially as it travels.
6:28
Therefore, if the business model dictates that the consumer gets
6:31
to use their existing unmodified phone.
6:33
Which is the Holy Grail? Right, which is the Holy Grail
6:36
of DTD. Then the handset cannot shoulder
6:39
the burden of closing the link. So the satellite has to do it.
6:42
All the heavy lifting, the massive amplification and the
6:45
technological compensation must happen on the satellite end of
6:48
the equation. Let me challenge that slightly
6:50
though. If the phone is the bottleneck,
6:54
wouldn't any satellite in Leo struggle equally to hear that
6:58
tiny sub Watt signal? You would think so.
7:00
Crossroads argues heavily that AST has solved this through
7:04
brute force. Physical scale.
7:07
It's in a section they title size matters.
7:09
And it really does matter in this context.
7:12
They. Provide a scale comparison that
7:13
is genuinely hard to wra your head around.
7:16
If we look at Starlink's current V2 satellites, the ones
7:20
currently providing their initial D2D service, they're
7:23
about 65 square feet. Roughly the size of a large
7:25
dining table. OK, large dining table.
7:27
But then you look at AST's Block 2 Bluebird satellites and the
7:31
footprint is a staggering 2400 square feet.
7:34
Roughly 223 square meters. That's, I mean that's 35 to 40
7:37
times larger. What's fascinating here is the
7:39
sheer magnitude of that discrepancy.
7:42
It is not a marginal difference. It's totally different leagues.
7:45
Yes, and in the discipline of orbital radio frequency
7:49
engineering, physical size is not an aesthetic choice or a
7:52
vanity metric. Size directly correlates to the
7:55
aperture of the antenna. Like a telescope lens.
7:58
Exactly like a telescope lens, a larger aperture allows you to
8:02
capture a much larger slice of that incredibly faint, dispersed
8:06
radio wave coming from the smartphone on Earth.
8:09
Because it has a bigger catching.
8:10
Met exactly. Furthermore, surface area
8:12
dictates power generation. In space, your power comes from
8:16
solar arrays. Right.
8:18
No power lines up there. So the power that a satellite
8:20
can generate and subsequently push through its phased array to
8:24
transmit back down to Earth scales exponentially with the
8:27
area of the satellite. Power is the absolute ultimate
8:30
currency in low Earth. Orbit, the ultimate currency.
8:33
It dictates your throughput, your bandwidth and your signal
8:36
integrity. So we aren't just talking about
8:38
a larger antenna to hear better, we are talking about massive
8:42
power generation to speak louder.
8:44
Precisely. The numbers in the text bear
8:45
this out. AST's Bluebird satellites
8:48
generate between 100 and 120 kilowatts of power.
8:52
Which is staggering for. Context.
8:54
That makes them the most powerful commercial satellites
8:57
ever built for Leo. And because of this massive raw
9:01
power budget, Crossroads makes a definitive claim.
9:05
They say AST is currently the only company in history to
9:09
achieve true DTD broadband connectivity.
9:12
The keyword there is broadband. Right.
9:14
And they're very specific to what broadband means here.
9:17
We aren't talking about slowly sending a plain text SMS
9:20
emergency SOS message. Like the early Apple features?
9:24
Exactly. We are talking about real time
9:26
data, voice calls and even video streaming directly from an
9:30
unmodified phone to space without any intermediary
9:33
receiver dish. That distinction between
9:35
narrowband text messaging and true broadband is critical, and
9:38
it all stems from that power budget.
9:40
Because of the 100 kilowatts. Because AST has that 100 to 120
9:44
kilowatts at their disposal, they can blast a signal back
9:47
down to Earth that is strong enough to penetrate atmospheric
9:50
interference and register clearly on a tiny smartphone
9:53
antenna. Without needing a satellite dish
9:55
on your roof. Right now, if we look at the
9:57
other side of the thesis, Crosswords breaks down the
9:59
severe compromises Starlink faces because of their smaller.
10:03
Size the 65 square square foot dining tables, Yes.
10:07
Because the physical aperture is small, the beam they project
10:10
down to Earth is inherently less focused.
10:12
It suffers from what RF engineers call spillage or
10:15
sidelobe emissions. Right, I was reading this part.
10:19
Think about it like trying to use a cheap, unfocused
10:22
flashlight in a dark theater. That's a great analogy if.
10:26
You want to illuminate one specific seat, but your
10:28
flashlight beam is wide and messy.
10:30
The light is going to spill over onto the Rose next to it.
10:32
You're going to blind the person in the next seat, and in
10:35
telecommunications, that spillage isn't just inefficient.
10:38
It's illegal. It's.
10:40
Literally illegal. Yes, the radio frequency
10:42
spectrum is a highly regulated, densely packed environment.
10:46
When Starlink's unfocused beams spill sideways outside of their
10:49
designated area or frequency lane, they cause the noise floor
10:53
to rise for terrestrial networks operating nearby.
10:55
They act like a jammer. Essentially, yes.
10:58
Because of this lack of precision, which is directly
11:01
tied to their lack of physical size, Starlink is currently
11:05
hitting strict regulatory interference limits.
11:08
The FCC gets involved. They do.
11:10
They are legally capped in terms of the power they are allowed to
11:13
broadcast, because pushing more power through a small imprecise
11:17
array would result in unacceptable interference with
11:21
ground based cellular networks. It's a cascading failure.
11:24
They are trapped in a physics bottleneck where their size
11:28
limits their precision, which limits their legally permissible
11:31
power, which ultimately degrades their network performance to the
11:34
user. But hold on, if building a 2400
11:37
square foot satellite is the undeniable physics based
11:40
solution to achieving broadband D to D, why hasn't everyone
11:43
simply built bigger satellites? Well, getting them up there is
11:46
the problem. Right.
11:47
You would think an engineering powerhouse like SpaceX would
11:50
just immediately pivot to building massive arrays, but
11:52
that brings up the rocket dilemma.
11:54
The irony of space travel. It really is an irony.
11:58
Getting something the size of a tennis court into orbit isn't as
12:01
simple as strapping it to a booster.
12:04
Rockets have incredibly rigid payload fairings.
12:07
They're basically just narrow cylinders.
12:09
Right, you are strictly bottlenecked by the internal
12:12
volume of the fairing and the mass capacity of the launch
12:14
vehicle. And this brings us to what
12:16
Crossroads highlights as AST's defining engineering
12:20
breakthrough, the deployment mechanism.
12:23
Unfurling versus unfolding. Exactly, to bypass the rocket
12:27
fairing volume constraint, AST engineered an incredibly complex
12:31
origami style folding architecture.
12:34
Origami in space the. Challenge here cannot be
12:36
overstated. You are taking a massive flat
12:39
structure embedded with thousands of highly sensitive
12:42
electronic components, folding it up into a dense cube so it
12:46
fits snugly inside the cylindrical payload fairing of a
12:49
rocket. It sounds like a nightmare to
12:50
design. It then has to survive the
12:52
extreme acoustic vibrations, G forces and thermal stress of a
12:56
launch into orbit. And then comes the truly
12:58
terrifying part, right? Yeah.
13:00
Once it's in the vacuum of space, it has to unfold.
13:02
And it's not a simple unfurl. It's not just unrolling a solar
13:06
blanket. The text references the visual
13:08
of an AST Bluebird unfolding and it is a complex mechanical
13:13
actuation of hinges and panels. Hundreds of hinges.
13:16
It has to deploy into a perfectly flat 2400 square foot
13:20
surface with absolute millimeter precision.
13:23
Millimeter precision is the key. Because if a single hinge gets
13:26
stuck, or if the array deploys with even a slight warp or
13:29
curvature, the phase Ray's ability to precisely focus its
13:33
radio beams is severely compromised.
13:35
It would ruin the entire focusing mechanism, the
13:37
mechanical engineering required to achieve that reliable
13:40
deployment in a zero gravity, zero atmosphere environment
13:44
dealing with massive temperature fluctuations between direct
13:47
sunlight and orbital darkness. It is a monumental feat.
13:50
And they pulled it off. They did, and from a competitive
13:53
standpoint, Crossroads points out that this specific
13:55
mechanical and RF architecture is shielded by thousands of
13:59
patents. The Starling can't just copy
14:01
their homework. Not without facing massive
14:03
litigation. The intellectual property mode
14:06
is exceptionally deep. The thesis suggests.
14:09
It would take a competitor the better part of a decade to
14:12
organically research, develop, test, and successfully launch a
14:15
comparable deployment mechanism that circumvents those patents.
14:19
But Starling isn't exactly sitting still, are they?
14:21
No, of course not. The Crossroads report does dig
14:24
into Starling's future road map, specifically their next
14:27
generation V3 satellites. Starling clearly understands
14:31
that size is the limiting factor because the V3 is significantly
14:35
larger. They are scaling up.
14:37
The estimates in the report put the fully assembled V3 satellite
14:40
at roughly 4400 lbs. That is more than four times the
14:43
mass of their current V2. Four times the weight and power
14:47
generation is expected to jump to around 20 kilowatts.
14:50
That is a notable upgrade from V2, absolutely.
14:52
However, if we evaluate the math presented in the thesis, 20
14:56
kilowatts is still only 1/5 to 1/6 the power generation of
15:00
Asts, 100 to 120 kilowatts. So even with V3 they are way
15:04
behind on power. Yes, even with their next
15:07
generation hardware, Starlink will still be operating at a
15:10
massive power deficit. But the more pressing issue for
15:13
Starlink, as outlined in the report, is the launch
15:17
bottleneck. Right, because of how heavy they
15:19
are. A 4400 LB satellite with a much
15:21
larger physical footprint simply cannot be deployed in
15:25
economically viable quantities using Spacex's current workhorse
15:28
rocket, the Falcon 9. It's just too big for the trunk.
15:31
The Falcon 9's payload capacity and faring volume are simply too
15:35
small to lift enough V3 satellites per launch to build a
15:39
global constellation quickly or cheaply.
15:41
Which means Starlink's entire next generation D2D strategy is
15:45
completely whether to Starship. That's the big dependency.
15:48
For those falling aerospace, Starship is Spacex's super heavy
15:51
lift fully reusable launch vehicle.
15:54
It's a marvel of engineering, truly.
15:56
But as the report points out, the original prototype timelines
15:59
date back to 2019. Aerospace delays are standard.
16:02
Right. Currently, the most optimistic
16:04
targets have Starship ready for regular commercial payload
16:08
deployment by mid 2027. And anyone familiar with
16:12
aerospace development knows that target dates are notorious for
16:14
slipping. They always slip.
16:16
Structural delays inherent in developing a super heavy lift
16:19
vehicle like Starship mean that Starlink's V3 constellation
16:23
likely won't begin achieving critical mass in orbit until
16:26
2028 at the earliest. Which is years away.
16:29
This delay provides AST Space Mobile with a multi year head
16:33
start. AST is already launching their
16:36
massive arrays using existing rocket infrastructure.
16:39
Because of their origami folding design.
16:40
Exactly while Starlink is effectively grounded waiting for
16:44
a rocket that is still undergoing explosive test
16:47
flights. Here's where it gets really
16:48
interesting, because once that massive AST array is unfolded in
16:52
space, we have to look at the micro architecture on the
16:55
surface of the panel itself. The details matter here.
16:58
It is not just one giant dumb sheet of metal bouncing signals
17:02
around. The text details AST's phased
17:05
antenna array design. The entire 2400 square foot
17:09
surface is composed of thousands of highly complex, tightly
17:13
packed individual flat tiles. This is the crux of the radio
17:17
frequency engineering. Every single one of those
17:20
thousands of tiles operates as an independent, self-contained
17:24
radio unit. Like its own little cell tower.
17:26
Exactly a single tile houses its own micro node receivers,
17:30
transmission antennas, routing electronics and a dedicated
17:34
controller. The analogy provided in the
17:36
report is incredibly apartment, they say.
17:38
Imagine thousands of tiny walkie talkies seamlessly integrated
17:41
into a single massive board. That's the best way to visualize
17:44
it. Where every walkie-talkie can
17:45
independently listen to incoming signals and transmit outgoing
17:48
signals, but there they're all perfectly synchronized.
17:50
But why thousands of individual tiles?
17:53
Why not just a few large transmitters?
17:55
Right. Why overcomplicate it?
17:57
Well, it comes down to how a phased array actually directs
18:00
signal. By carefully and dynamically
18:02
adjusting the phase, the exact timing of the radio wave emitted
18:06
from each individual tile, the satellite can shape and steer
18:10
the combined radio wave without any physical moving parts.
18:13
It's all done electronically. They create highly focused radio
18:17
spotlights, and this is critical because of the orbital mechanics
18:20
involved. The satellite is in low Earth
18:22
orbit, screaming across the sky at roughly 17,000 mph.
18:27
And meanwhile, you might be driving down a highway at 70
18:30
mph. The geometry of the link is
18:32
changing in milliseconds. The satellite must be able to
18:35
electronically steer those radio spotlights instantaneously to
18:39
track your moving phone, while simultaneously compensating for
18:42
the massive Doppler shift caused by the satellite's velocity.
18:46
The Doppler effect like a siren passing by.
18:47
Exactly. And this is where the sheer
18:50
number of elements in the phased array becomes a superpower.
18:53
By coordinating thousands of tiles, AST dramatically
18:57
increases the gain of the antenna.
18:58
And what does gain mean in this context?
19:01
Gain, in RF terms, is a measure of how tightly you can focus
19:05
your radiated power into a specific direction.
19:09
The higher the gain, the stronger the signal that
19:11
actually reaches the smartphone, effectively punching through the
19:14
500 kilometers of atmosphere. Wait, if they are focusing
19:18
massive amounts of power into these tight spotlights, how do
19:21
they avoid the interference issues that plague Starlink?
19:25
The spillage. We talked.
19:26
About right? If AST is pumping 100 kilowatts
19:29
of power, wouldn't any spillage be absolutely catastrophic for
19:33
terrestrial networks? That is the beauty of a highly
19:36
advanced massive phased array. The physics of wave interference
19:40
work in both directions. What do you mean?
19:42
Through precise phase shifting, the array creates constructive
19:46
interference in the direction of the target smartphone, meaning
19:49
the waves combine to make a stronger signal where you want
19:52
it. OK, that makes sense.
19:53
But simultaneously it creates destructive interference in all
19:56
other directions. Destructive interference.
19:58
The radio waves literally cancel each other out outside of the
20:02
targeted spotlight. It's like noise cancelling
20:04
headphones. Yes, that is exactly how it
20:06
works. This is how AST achieves strict
20:09
compliance with the FCC's out of band emissions or OOBE
20:13
regulations. They can essentially nullify
20:15
their signal in areas where they aren't authorized to broadcast,
20:19
protecting terrestrial networks from noise.
20:21
So they don't jam the other networks.
20:23
Starling's smaller arrays simply do not have enough individual
20:27
antenna elements to achieve this level of sharp destructive
20:30
interference, which is why they struggle with signal spillage.
20:34
So we've covered the brutal physics, the origami rockets,
20:38
and the thousands of synchronized walkie talkies.
20:41
But let's shift gears and look at the real world application.
20:45
How does this actually behave in the wild for the end user?
20:48
Because the consumer doesn't care about the physics.
20:50
Exactly. The most advanced orbital array
20:52
in the world is totally useless if the user experience is a
20:55
clunky, frustrating mess. The Crossroads report outlines 2
20:59
vastly different network architectures.
21:01
Here. They essentially boil down to
21:03
AST's cell towers in space versus Starlink's space roaming
21:07
the. Distinction in network topology
21:09
here is profound. Let's examine AST's approach
21:12
first. According to the report, AST
21:15
integrates directly into the core of the mobile network
21:18
operators, the M and OS terrestrial network.
21:21
Meaning AT&T, Verizon, people like that, right?
21:24
They utilize standardized 3 GPP protocols.
21:28
From the perspective of the network core, the AST satellite
21:32
is registered exactly the same way as a standard physical cell
21:35
tower located down the street. It is natively integrated.
21:39
Which means the user experience is completely frictionless.
21:43
Imagine you were on a hike and you walk beyond the reach of
21:46
your carrier's local terrestrial tower.
21:48
You step into a dead zone. Right, but your fan doesn't
21:51
panic. It doesn't drop the connection.
21:53
It simply hands over the connection to the AST satellite
21:56
orbiting overhead, exactly as it would hand over a connection
21:58
when you drive from one terrestrial cell tower coverage
22:01
zone to the next on the highway. It's invisible to the user.
22:04
Totally invisible and the text highlights a massive milestone
22:08
proving this capability, AST's partner in Japan, Rakuten,
22:13
successfully completed Japan's first ever mobile broadband two
22:16
way video call using unmodified smartphones connected directly
22:20
to AST Satellite A. Huge.
22:23
Moment A seamless low latency video call from space on a
22:26
standard handset. No apps to download, no special
22:30
settings to toggle. Now contrast that deep
22:33
architectural integration with Starlink's approach, because
22:35
Starlink lacks the power and the precision to act as a standard
22:39
node on the carrier's primary network without causing that
22:42
catastrophic interference we discussed.
22:43
Spillage issue, right? Because of that, they are forced
22:47
to use a synthetic network overlay.
22:49
When a user accesses Starlink's DTD service via their
22:52
partnership with T-Mobile, they aren't staying on the primary
22:55
T-Mobile network. Oh really?
22:56
No, the phone actually recognizes a completely separate
22:59
cellular network broadcast from space, designated as T
23:03
satellite. So it's a completely different
23:04
network ID, and the user friction there is significant,
23:07
the report says. If you lose your primary
23:09
T-Mobile signal, your phone doesn't just smoothly
23:11
transition. It's a harsh break.
23:13
It experiences a hard disconnect.
23:15
It drops whatever call you are on, officially logs out of the
23:19
terrestrial T-Mobile network, scans the sky for the Starlink
23:23
constellation, authenticates, and then logs into the T
23:26
satellite roaming network. The report sites real world
23:29
feedback from beta testers experiencing this synthetic
23:33
overlay. And it wasn't great.
23:34
The process of the handset modem constantly hunting for the
23:38
primary network failing and then attempting to handshake with the
23:41
secondary satellite network results in severe battery drain.
23:44
Your phone is just working overtime.
23:46
Constantly, testers reported consistently drop connections
23:49
during handoffs, terrible indoor penetration, and a generally
23:53
unreliable user experience. It behaves exactly like an
23:56
international roaming scenario, but with the added complexity of
23:59
the tower moving at 17,000 mph. But surely Starlink knows this
24:03
is a suboptimal experience? I mean they are a smart company,
24:07
why don't they just integrate natively like AST?
24:10
It comes back to the physics. Right, the text makes it clear
24:13
that Starlink signals are simply too unstable, the latency jitter
24:17
is too high and the signal strength is too weak.
24:19
It's too messy. If T-Mobile allowed Starlink to
24:22
natively broadcast the primary T-Mobile network identifiers,
24:27
the terrestrial phones would constantly get confused trying
24:30
to connect to a weak, unstable space signal instead of a nearby
24:34
terrestrial tower. Which would crash the network's
24:37
efficiency. Exactly because of that inherent
24:40
link instability, Starlink is forced to perform heavy data
24:43
processing and routing on the satellite itself before
24:46
attempting to pass the clean data back down to the carrier's
24:49
ground station. Doing the math in space, yes.
24:52
And to try and mitigate the weakness of their signal,
24:54
Starlink has been continuously petitioning regulators to allow
24:58
them to lower the orbital altitude of their satellites.
25:01
Brian to get closer to the phones.
25:02
They are trying to brute force the physics equation by moving
25:05
the satellite physically closer to Earth, which introduces a
25:09
host of other orbital mechanics issues including increased
25:12
atmospheric drag and shorter satellite lifespan.
25:15
They just burn up faster. Yes, AST utilizing superior RF
25:19
engineering can maintain a stable high throughput
25:22
connection from much higher, more stable altitudes.
25:26
This brings us to a critical architectural concept
25:29
highlighted in the report, the bent pipe.
25:31
The text describes AST's bent pipe architecture as a massive
25:36
disruptive advantage, but for those outside of telecom
25:40
engineering, what exactly does a bend plate mean in this context?
25:43
That's a great term in satellite communications.
25:46
A bent pipe architecture, also known as a transparent payload,
25:50
means the satellite acts strictly as an analog radio
25:53
frequency relay. Just bouncing the signal.
25:55
It receives the signal from the user's phone on one frequency,
25:58
amplifies it massively using that 120 kilowatts of power,
26:02
translates it to a different frequency, and then sit right
26:04
back down to the carrier's ground station.
26:06
So it's not actually reading the data.
26:08
Crucially, the satellite does not demodulate the signal, it
26:11
does not process the data packets, it does not handle
26:13
network routing, and it does not manage user authentication.
26:16
It is a highly powerful, extremely dumb mirror in the
26:19
sky. So all the brains of the network
26:22
remain firmly on the ground. Where they belong.
26:25
The mobile network operator, whether that's AT&T, Vodafone,
26:29
or Rikuten, keeps their entire core network, their billing
26:33
systems, and their customer data routing exactly where it is.
26:37
They don't cede an ounce of control over their network
26:39
architecture to AST. AST just provides the long
26:42
distance conduit. A really long extension.
26:44
Cord Exactly. This is a massive selling point
26:48
for incumbent telecom giants who are intensely protective of
26:51
their core networks and customer data.
26:53
They. Don't want to share that.
26:54
Never. Starlink, by contrast, utilizes
26:57
A regenerative payload. Because their link is weak, they
27:00
have to process the signal, decode the packets and handle
27:03
routing decisions on board the satellite and Leo before beaming
27:07
it down. So the satellite is acting as a
27:09
router. This forces the partnering
27:11
carrier to hand over a significant amount of network
27:13
control and data processing authority to Starlink's
27:16
proprietary hardware in space. But the Crossroads thesis takes
27:20
this a step further and looks at the future proofing
27:22
implications. We are currently living in the
27:24
5G era, but the telecom industry moves fast.
27:28
What happens when the world upgrades to 6G?
27:30
If we connect this to the bigger picture of capital expenditures
27:33
and network upgrades, the bent pipe architecture is a financial
27:37
master stroke. Oh so.
27:39
Cellular standards dictated by three GPP rely heavily on
27:43
backwards compatibility and core network upgrades.
27:46
Because AST satellite is just a transparent relay, a dumb
27:50
mirror. Upgrading the network to 6G
27:52
doesn't require touching the satellite.
27:54
Oh wow. The MNO simply upgrades the
27:56
software and baseband units at their terrestrial ground
27:59
stations. The satellite continues to
28:01
blindly amplify and relay the new 6G waveforms just as easily
28:06
as it did the 5G waveforms. Wait, if Starlink is decoding
28:09
the packets and processing the network protocols on board the
28:12
satellite, what happens to them when 6G rolls out?
28:14
The report outlines A brutal reality for Starlink's upgrade
28:17
path. Because their satellites house
28:19
the processing logic, a generational shift in telecom
28:22
standards like 6G will likely render their in orbit processing
28:26
hardware obsolete. It'll just be a brick in space.
28:28
They cannot simply push a software software update to
28:31
fundamentally change how the silicon demodulates next
28:34
generation waveforms. It is highly probable that
28:37
Starlink will be forced into a massive capital expenditure
28:41
cycle. They'll have to launch entirely
28:42
new hardware. They'll have to physically
28:44
launch an entirely new generation of satellites just to
28:47
maintain compatibility with new terrestrial cellular standards.
28:52
AST built a future proof mirror. Starlink built a flying router
28:56
that will eventually need to be replaced.
28:58
OK, we are entering the final and perhaps most critical phase
29:02
of the Crossroads Capital thesis.
29:04
We've dissected the physics, the launch constraints, the massive
29:08
phased arrays, and the core network architecture.
29:10
A whole stack. But none of this brilliant
29:13
engineering matters if you don't have the legal right to
29:15
broadcast. The report refers to this as the
29:18
final boss. We're talking about spectrum.
29:20
Spectrum is the invisible lifeblood of all wireless
29:23
communication. The report uses an excellent
29:26
analogy here. Think of spectrum as a giant
29:28
highway in the sky. Data travels back and forth
29:31
along these invisible lanes. But there's a limit to the
29:33
lanes. However, the number of lanes is
29:35
strictly finite and they are heavily regulated by global
29:39
government bodies. You cannot simply build a
29:42
satellite and start transmitting.
29:44
You must have legal access to a specific lane on the highway.
29:47
And the strategies deployed by AST and Starlink to access this
29:51
highway could not be more different.
29:53
The text outlines AST's wholesale partnership model.
29:58
AST recognized early on that trying to buy their own global
30:02
spectrum was a fool's errand. It would bankrupt them.
30:04
Instead, they forged exclusive revenue share partnerships with
30:08
the massive incumbent telecom giants who already own the
30:11
rights to the highway carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and
30:15
Bell Canada. The landlords of the highway.
30:17
Through these partnerships, AST is granted the legal right to
30:20
broadcast from space using the exact same frequencies that your
30:23
phone is already programmed to use.
30:25
And we must emphasize the specific type of spectrum AST
30:28
accessing through these partners.
30:30
The report refers to it as the crown jewel of
30:32
telecommunications. Low band cellular spectrum.
30:35
Low band frequencies, typically in the 700 to 900 megahertz
30:39
range, have unique physical propagation characteristics.
30:43
The wavelengths are longer. What does that mean practically?
30:45
Which means they can travel incredibly vast distances with
30:49
less attenuation. And crucially, they can bend
30:52
around obstacles and penetrate dense materials like building
30:56
walls, heavy foliage and vehicle chassis.
30:59
So they go through concrete. This low band access is
31:02
precisely why AST can connect to an unmodified phone inside a car
31:06
or a building. Now let's look at Starlink's
31:08
spectrum strategy. The Crossroads report uses an
31:12
analogy that is frankly hilarious, but devastatingly
31:15
accurate. Historically, Starlink built its
31:18
massive home Internet business using a high frequency spectrum
31:22
bands, specifically COUP and COB bands.
31:24
Very different physics. These frequencies are fantastic
31:27
for beaming massive amounts of data to a stationary, highly
31:30
sensitive dish mounted on the roof of a house with a clear,
31:32
unobstructed view of the sky it. Requires a line of sight.
31:35
The text called Starlink, the creator of the world's best
31:38
hockey stick for fixed broadband, but trying to use
31:42
those exact same high frequency bands for mobile D2D
31:45
communication, the report says. It's like taking that world
31:48
class hockey stick and trying to play a round of golf on the PGA
31:51
Tour. It's absurd.
31:53
It is fundamentally the wrong physical tool for the job.
31:57
High frequency spectrum has very short wavelengths.
32:00
It simply cannot penetrate physical barriers.
32:03
A heavy rainstorm, A dense tree canopy, or a standard building
32:06
roof will completely block a high frequency signal from
32:09
space. It will never reach the tiny
32:12
antenna inside a smartphone resting on a kitchen counter.
32:15
Realizing this, Starlink partnered with T-Mobile to
32:18
access a thin slice of mid band cellular spectrum.
32:21
But it's just a slice. But as the report notes,
32:24
returning to the highway analogy, Starlink only has
32:26
access to a narrow service Rd., while AST, through its global
32:30
coalition of partners, has access to the entire multi lane
32:34
Interstate system of low band spectrum globally.
32:37
But Starlink is backed by Elon Musk.
32:39
They have access to a capital. The report points out that
32:43
Starlink recently spent $17 billion to acquire spectrum
32:47
assets from Egostar. Why wouldn't Starlink just
32:50
continue to buy up low band spectrum globally and build
32:53
their own highway? The financial and regulatory
32:55
realities make that impossible, which the report details
32:58
extensively, $17 billion is a massive sum, but the text models
33:02
out the replacement cost of AST's global spectrum portfolio.
33:06
And that's the number. To acquire the comprehensive
33:09
global low band spectrum rights that AST already possesses
33:13
through its partnerships, A competitor would have to spend
33:15
trillions of dollars. Trillions with AT.
33:18
With AT the global telecom cartel has spent decades and
33:22
hundreds of billions of dollars at government auctions securing
33:25
these rights. They are not simply going to
33:28
sell their foundational assets to a competitor like Starlink.
33:31
And even if Musk somehow raised $2 trillion, money doesn't solve
33:35
the regulatory blockades. Countries fiercely protect their
33:38
telecom infrastructure. National security is a huge
33:41
factor. The text highlights data
33:43
sovereignty as a massive roadblock.
33:46
Foreign governments do not want their citizens domestic cellular
33:49
traffic being routed through and processed by an American
33:53
company's proprietary satellites in orbit before it ever touches
33:57
their sovereign soil. It's a nonstarter for many
33:59
nations. AST avoids this entirely because
34:02
of their bent pipe architecture. The foreign MNO retains total
34:06
control of the data on their own ground stations.
34:08
Furthermore, from a pure business acquisition standpoint,
34:12
AST's wholesale model grants them immediate, frictionless
34:15
access to billions of existing mobile subscribers from day one.
34:20
Because they're already paying customers.
34:22
When AT&T activates the AST network, millions of AT&T
34:26
customers simply receive a text message saying their coverage
34:28
has expanded. Starlink, operating as a quasi
34:31
competitor to many global telcos, would be forced to spend
34:34
billions on marketing and customer acquisition to convince
34:37
users to sign up for their specific roaming style tea
34:40
satellite service. They have to poach the
34:42
customers. The economic Moat AST has built
34:44
through these partnerships is exponentially deeper than just
34:47
the technology itself. Which brings us to the ultimate
34:50
conclusion of this Crossroads Capital investment thesis.
34:53
After walking through the physics of aperture size, the
34:56
engineering of the folding deployment, the intricacies of
35:00
phased array beam forming, the architecture of the bent pipe,
35:03
and the trillion dollar spectrum mode, it's.
35:06
A lot of layers. The report states plainly that
35:09
equating AST SPACE Mobile with Starlink in the DTD race is
35:13
silly. They aren't even playing the
35:15
same game. The report does acknowledge the
35:18
formidable reality of Starlink's broader business, though.
35:21
Starlink is an undisputed Titan in the aerospace sector.
35:25
Thanks to SpaceX, they have nearly 10,000 satellites in
35:28
orbit. They are to jugger it.
35:29
Up They have a massive first mover advantage and fixed
35:32
satellite Internet and they command a staggering $1.5
35:35
trillion valuation, which as the report points out, is nearly 40
35:39
times AST's valuation in the public markets.
35:42
They have absolutely won the fixed broadband war.
35:44
But the core argument of the thesis is that absolute
35:47
dominance in fixed home Internet does not translate to mobile
35:50
direct to device broadband. The physics are just different.
35:53
The hardware requirements are different and the spectrum needs
35:56
are completely alien to Starlink's historical model when
35:59
you look strictly at connecting an unmodified pocket sized
36:02
smartphone to a satellite 500 kilometers away.
36:06
The report concludes that AST Space Mobile, their relatively
36:10
obscure company out of West, TX, holds a nearly insurmountable
36:13
structural, engineering and commercial lead.
36:16
It's a compelling argument. So what does this all mean?
36:19
We've gone incredibly deep today.
36:21
We've navigated orbital link budgets, the mechanical stress
36:24
of rocket payload fairings, the destructive interference of
36:27
phased arrays, and the multi trillion dollar complexities of
36:32
global telecom spectrum licensing.
36:34
As we conclude, I want to reiterate that our deep dive
36:36
today has been an objective analysis of the mechanics and
36:39
arguments presented in the March 2020 Sixth Crossroads Capital
36:42
Report. Just reading the data.
36:44
We are synthesizing their technological assessment of the
36:46
D to D landscape, not providing an endorsement of any financial
36:49
asset or investment position. Our objective is to ensure you
36:53
understand the profound engineering choices dictating
36:55
the future of this industry. And as you digest everything
36:58
we've covered today, I want to leave you with one final
37:00
provocative thought. The report briefly touches on
37:04
this idea of space becoming the Internet's future operating
37:08
system. An operating system in the sky.
37:10
I want you to step back from the engineering for a second and
37:14
really imagine the societal implications of a world without
37:18
dead zones. What happens to global economic
37:20
equality when the geographic barrier to information is
37:23
permanently erased it. Changes everything.
37:26
What does it mean for emergency response, disaster relief, or
37:29
simply the fundamental human need for connection when an
37:33
operating system in the sky guarantees that a cheap standard
37:36
smartphone in the middle of the Sahara desert has the exact same
37:39
reliable broadband access as a device sitting in a skyscraper
37:43
in Manhattan? We are watching this guy
37:45
transform from a passive void into the ultimate active
37:48
connector of humanity. Thank you so much for joining us
37:50
on this deep dive. Thanks for listening to the AST
37:55
Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
37:59
you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
38:02
others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
38:05
review. To catch all the latest news
38:07
about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
38:11
Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
38:17
We're doing something very, very big.
38:18
Connecting with this technology. We can really affect billion
38:21
lives. AFT Space Globally is the only
38:24
company that has proven technology to deliver cellular
38:28
broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday
38:32
smartphone. People will just basically turn
38:34
their phone and be seamless. But regardless of where you are,
38:38
we don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
38:40
satellite. Our role is to bring this into
38:44
reality, always in partnership with the enemy.
38:53
Listen, Waffles.