Latest / Financial Survival Network / Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and The Bullish Forecast - Ed Siddell #6322

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Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and The Bullish Forecast - Ed Siddell #6322 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: But I do believe the market is going to finish
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: up stronger probably you know, sixty six hundred at the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: end of the year, and I do. Going in the
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: next year again, I'm very very bullish. When you see
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: the Russell do as well as it has done just
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: since April, that's really good indication of what's to come
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: because that's the lifebread of America small business.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: So going into next year.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: five hundred, so we're very very bullish on the markets
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: in the economy.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
• 0:45
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• 0:50
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• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Network now more than ever.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we were
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: back with Edward Sidell and you find Eddie of course
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: at e g SI Financial dot com. Eddie, it's great
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: to have you back on. So we got some numbers
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: we got GDP numbers, tarriffs, trade, what's going on here?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Well, thanks for having me back, you know what, a
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: lot of news and it's all heading in the right direction.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: There's really nothing.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: That has been unexpected except for one one very important thing,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: which is a pal speech in Jackson Hole, you know,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: indicating and and you know, floating out that trial balloon
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: that they're going to lower rates. You know, we believe
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: that he probably should have done it sooner, but I
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: think there's so much economic pressure, not from the outside,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: but I think they finally really started looking at the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: numbers as well as the uh uh, the governors of
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the Fed uh and you started to see that with
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of Fed governor's going against Powell and voting
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: against and so yeah, I think they're.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: Going to lower rate.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So it was his speech that was a little bit shocking.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I thought it was going to be the other way.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: But with GDP numbers coming in, that was not shocking.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We were expecting that because of the trade and balance
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: and the reduction of the trade deficit, because of the tariffs.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: You know, the PPI numbers. I mean, honestly, I don't
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: want to say that they're worthless, but you really can't
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: depend on them because even since then Biden administration, they've
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: been inaccurate. They've been updating and redoing those numbers, you know,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: a month over month, rerising those downwards. And you know
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: we're seeing that even now. So you know, really just
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: looking at the real data, economic data, we're headed in
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the right direction. So I'm very very bullishing in the economy,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: in the markets.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: Really thinks. So, but what about those tariffs that we're
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: going to throw the world to global depression? Smooth holly,
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: and you know, remember the main and all that good stuff, right.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, the world did not come to
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: an end, uh for for sure. And you know, you
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: and I we actually talked about this earlier in the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: year and it was really you know, we talked about uh,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you know, tariffs, uh you know, as you know, taxes
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: versus tactics, and really it's that reciprocity.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: It's it's nice to finally have.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: A leader of America that can negotiate on on behalf
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: of its citizens that it's populous to our benefit instead
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: of to our detriment. So this is this is exciting
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: stuff going forward.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: Not to mention, I mean that the CBO you know
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: how they are.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: They're very hawkish on estimates, especially as it relates to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: revenues coming in. And for them to say they're expecting
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: over three trillion dollars in revenues over the next ten years,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: you know, it's it's uh, these are very very exciting times.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Not to mention, you know, all the private investment coming
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: into the US as a result of these negotiations going forward,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So companies are on board again. We're already starting to
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: see the trade and balance as reflected in the GDP
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: numbers that came out today.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: So we're in the right direction, all right. So we're
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: in the right direction. The terrorists didn't, didn't cause the
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: world to end. We're still working out some things with
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: China though, but it looks like the rest of the
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: world's kind of falling into line, aren't they.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Absolutely?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And to your point, so you brought up China and
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: you know, again negotiations and tactics. So Trump yesterday, what
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: did he say? So he announced, you know, he would
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: allow six hundred thousand visas for Chinese students to come
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: into the US. I know there was a lot of
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: backlash on it. But the first thing that came to
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: my mind is he's negotiating. He's trying to get China
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: to come to the table, and he can automatic. I mean,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: he can just as quickly as he said that, he
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: can change his mind and cut those visas off. So
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: he is trying to get China back to the table
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: and get really what we want. So and I'm sure
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: there's going to be a meeting in the mind somewhere
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: in between. Right. That's when it's a good negotiation, when
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: no one gets what they want.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: You know, like China with an intellectual property theft is
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: like war with canons. Right, yeah, absolutely absolutely they can.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: They really that's their business model. They're really going to
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: change a business model just because Trump says no mos Yeah,
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: exactly exactly.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And and they're playing the long game when they know
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: that they only half to wait. You know, the reality
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: is three and a half more years and then we
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: have a new administration coming in. So they're biding our time,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: their time, and if we can get something in place
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: between now and then, we can boost production on our
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: side and within our borders of prescription meds and other things,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: and really become more of a manufacturing society than we
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: are right now. Instead of just one hundred percent consumption.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: That's going to benefit us. And you know, and then
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: again you know China, it's really going to give them
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: pause and be willing to negotiate going for further after
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: this administration is done.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well we will see. I guess the proof of
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: the pudding is in the tasting here. So you're seeing
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: rate cuts. How much do you think rates are coming down?
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: You know, I was listening today.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: You heard some of the commentators pundits talk about a
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: big rate cut of fifty basis points.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: I don't see that.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: You know, we see maybe a total of fifty basis
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: points this year, once in September and maybe once again
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: in November December, and that's it. We do believe going
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: forward over the next twelve months, we'll see you know,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: one percent or maybe one and a quarter percent.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: But that's about it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: Okay, Well, hey, every little bit helps, right Housing. What's
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: your take on housing?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, when when we're looking at at the
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: debt as it relates to interest rates right in in
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: housing debt and being making it more affordable. Really, what
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: it's going to do is it's going to free some
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of the housing up because you have some of our
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: clients they want to downsize, but it does not make
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: sense for them to downsize and pay the same amount
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that they're paying now for a smaller house, because right
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: now they're paying you know, maybe two and a quarter
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: percent or two and a half percent, and and go
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: as high as six and a half percent. So as
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: rates come down, it's going to allow them to downsize
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: and and free up some of this these uh, these
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: other homes for first and second time home buyers, all
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the way across the board. So again, I think the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: housing problem is bigger than just interest rates. But that's
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: a really good.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: Start, all right, So, uh yeah, I don't think interest
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: rates are enough to solve it because well a lot
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: of it was caused by lower interest rates. People with
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: three three and a half percent mortgages, they don't want
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: to move because they're going to get a six six
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: and a half percent mortgage, right, and that's that's a
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: lot of money. So even if you want to downsize,
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: you can't really afford to downsize unless you buy your
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: place for cash somehow.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, it's fiscally irresponsible
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to you know, get house half your size and impay
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: the same amount or more.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so, so we got a lot of work to
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: do there. And I haven't looked at the housing ETF,
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: homebuilder ETF, and the homebuilder share prices. What have they
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: been doing lately?
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: You know what? Honestly I haven't either. I do know that.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Housing sales have gone up just a little bit throughout
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the summer. We did have a down month in July,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: but you know, overall, as far as that ETF goes, honestly,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I have not been tracking it.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: Okay, well we got to start tracking it again because
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: I have a feeling it's going to get important very quickly.
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: Any partying comments here, what you think the economy is
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: going to be doing and will we see a pickup
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're going to see a little pullback
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: between now and October. There's going to be some profit taking,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: which is justified, and I like that anytime you see
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: you pull back, that's an opportunity. But I do believe
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the market is going to finish up stronger, probably you know,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: sixty six hundred at the end of the year, and
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I do going into next year again, I'm very very bullish.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: When you see the Russell do as well, as it
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: has done just since April. That's really good indication of
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: what's to come because that's the lifebread of America small business.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: So going into the next year.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: five hundred. So we're very, very bullish on the markets
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: in the economy.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: All right, that's what we'd like to hear. The more
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: bullish the better. Of course, they got any questions for
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: Eddie or myself? What do you think GDP is going
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: to be doing? Where are we heading? Precious metals prices
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: going up?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Is that?
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: Is that the canary in the gold mine? What are
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: your thoughts? Email address kl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. And
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: of course if you want to find Eddie like we
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: said e GSI Financial dot com and Eddie, we'll talk
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: to you again soon.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Thanks great, Thanks Garry, I appreciate it.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: Cruis