Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 301 - 6/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 301 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:36Happy Wednesday, happy hump day. We are halfway through our work
- 0:40week, guys continuing to roll through the month of June here.
- 0:43And we're going to keep on grinding because today we have a
- 0:45huge Major League Baseball slate, 15 games overall.
- 0:49And I got a three pack for you. So we're going to see if we can
- 0:51eke out a winning day, try to go 2 and one and and turn a profit.
- 0:54And I can also tell you it's a big day in Boston today because
- 0:58I'm not going to get too nitty gritty into this, but have you
- 1:01guys been following the Karen Reed trial?
- 1:04Now, if you're in New England, this is all that you've been
- 1:06seeing on the nightly news. It's the only thing you're
- 1:08hearing about. It is a massive story.
- 1:11Basically, we had Karen Reed allegedly murder her boyfriend
- 1:15by driving into him, into him and leaving him out in the cold
- 1:19where he died of hypothermia. He was a Boston cop.
- 1:22And then it turns out that a trial initially a couple years
- 1:26ago where it was a hung jury, they couldn't come to a
- 1:28decision. They had a retrial and we are
- 1:31waiting to see what the verdict would be.
- 1:33And the reason why I was a little late starting this pod
- 1:35and recording this pod is that I was glued to my local news
- 1:38channel, which is the Boston Channel.
- 1:41And they said that they came out with a verdict.
- 1:44And wouldn't you know what? Karen Reed was found not guilty
- 1:47of murdering John O'Keefe. She got off on pretty much
- 1:50everything she was guilty of. OUI.
- 1:53So I believe that carries some sort of penalty, but all the big
- 1:56ones not guilty. And this was a case that has
- 1:59absolutely gripped New England for I think it's over 3 1/2
- 2:03years now at this point. There's actually a great
- 2:05documentary because I always heard people talking.
- 2:08And by the way, sorry, I'm subjecting you to Karen Reed.
- 2:10I'm just going to tell you in my neck of the woods, this is like
- 2:11the biggest story happening right now.
- 2:14But there's a documentary I want to know.
- 2:16I want to say it was on maybe Hulu or it was on Max.
- 2:19I forgot which channel. It was one of those streaming
- 2:21services that I pay 20 bucks a month for.
- 2:23But anyway, they really went into it and laid out the whole
- 2:27story and it seemed to me like you'd watch an episode and be
- 2:30like, oh, she definitely killed him.
- 2:31And then you'd watch another episode and you'd be like, Nope,
- 2:34she definitely did not kill him. But one of the biggest red flags
- 2:38that I saw was basically they were out drinking all night and
- 2:43they went to an after party at someone's house, by the way, all
- 2:46Boston cops. And then basically he went into
- 2:50the house. He never came out.
- 2:51Next day she calls him, doesn't know where he is.
- 2:54They find him dead, frozen in the front of the lawn.
- 2:57But there was during the first trial, a situation where the
- 3:02wife of the Boston cop who was hosting the after party, at like
- 3:052:00 AM, she googled on her phone how long until you die in
- 3:11the cold? And then she deleted it.
- 3:14So all of you and myself included, to think when you
- 3:17Google something, no one's watching, no people are
- 3:19watching. You can recover it even if you
- 3:20delete it, even if you clear cache and cookies.
- 3:23But my question was when I saw that that the woman in the house
- 3:26where again he went in and never came out of Googled that at 2:00
- 3:30AM. How long to die in the cold.
- 3:32That told me all I needed to know.
- 3:33I from that moment I felt like she was not guilty.
- 3:35And there's also a ton of other things going on.
- 3:38So it was really just a gripping story.
- 3:41And really what's crazy is there is a huge following of Karen
- 3:45Reed. Like, she has become almost like
- 3:47a cult hero. On the one hand, it's like, oh,
- 3:49if she killed him, this isn't good.
- 3:50People are so supportive of her, but they are supportive of her
- 3:53'cause they felt like she was innocent the whole time.
- 3:55And they basically like tailgate outside of the courthouse.
- 3:58They bring in like coolers, lawn chairs, you know, they're
- 4:02grilling. This is like a literally before
- 4:04a Patriots game, you know, or you go to an NFL tailgate and
- 4:08they wear pink 'cause their favorite color ledge is, of
- 4:10course, I believe pink. So as soon as the verdict they
- 4:14said they came up with and they were deliberating for like over
- 4:1619 hours, as soon as the verdict came in, I was go to the TV.
- 4:21They said basically she's not guilty.
- 4:23So that's basically the biggest thing happening in my neck of
- 4:25the woods. You probably could not care less
- 4:27about it. Maybe you've heard about it, but
- 4:29I would recommend, you know, if it's late night, all your games
- 4:32and sweats are over and you're looking for a documentary, go
- 4:36Google or watch the Karen Reed documentary.
- 4:39I think it's called Body in the Snow and it was pretty gripping.
- 4:43And I love the documentaries where again, after each episode,
- 4:45you don't know if you think one thing and then you think the
- 4:48other and then it makes you as a almost postmodern witness,
- 4:51figure out on your own, you know, what's the deal here?
- 4:54What's what's the, you know, the verdict.
- 4:57So anyway, Karen Reed, she's not guilty.
- 4:59That being said, I buried the lead.
- 5:02Great night last night, guys. 4 and 1 + 1.41 units.
- 5:06Had a nice two in one night in Major League Baseball.
- 5:08Got the Tigers and the Cubbies. Couldn't get the Rangers they
- 5:11lost to by the Royals, but I'm really proud of us for dabbling
- 5:14in some other markets because the Florida Panthers, Brad
- 5:18Marchand hoisted the second Stanley Cup.
- 5:21Panthers got it done, really no sweat there.
- 5:23They won five to one in memory. So that huge steam with those
- 5:26good system matches. Panthers are like -135 close as
- 5:29high as like -160 But the one that really took the cake for me
- 5:33was WNBA because we were brave enough to bet on the Dallas
- 5:36Wings would lost seven straight and had a 1 and 11 record
- 5:40against the team. That was what were the 501 three
- 5:44straight. But we respected the market.
- 5:46Wings went from -1 1/2 up to three 3 1/2.
- 5:49Wings get it done on the money line.
- 5:50So it's nice to see a WNBA winner and maybe that'll be
- 5:53hopefully the first of a few as we can dabble more into WNBA.
- 5:56So overall, 4 and 1 + 1.41 unit night.
- 6:00Of course, we'll put that in our bankroll and not reinvest it to
- 6:04today. With that being said, guys, 3
- 6:06pack for today. You guys know the drill.
- 6:07Let's try to go 2 and 1, eke out a winning day.
- 6:10So first bit on the board for me.
- 6:11Let's go to a 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch between the
- 6:16Minnesota Twinkies and the Cincinnati Red Legs.
- 6:19Let's talk the line movement. Set the stage for this one, and
- 6:21I'll give you my play. So the Reds, who are 38 and 35,
- 6:25won last night's interleague series opener six to five over.
- 6:28The Twins took care of business as a -130 home favorite.
- 6:32Now, tonight's rematch, we got the Twins, who are now 536 and
- 6:3536. They're going to go with the
- 6:37ready Bailey over. He's four and three with a 4.4 O
- 6:41ERA. Meanwhile, the Reds are going to
- 6:42go with the lefty Nick Lodolo, who's four and five with a 3.76
- 6:46ERA. Now, what do we see across the
- 6:48market here? Well, this game opened at
- 6:50basically a pick em. It was pretty much -110 both
- 6:53sides. What do we always talk about
- 6:55when a game opens at a pick em? Hey, which direction does the
- 6:58line move? All line moves are important to
- 7:00me unless it's the weather or an injury, really they're driven
- 7:04mostly by smart money taking a position.
- 7:06But when you open as a pick em, again, it's super important
- 7:09which way does the line move? Because maybe sharps wise guys
- 7:12agree with the books and say, hey, this is completely pick em
- 7:15coin flip game. But a lot of times they might
- 7:17disagree and say, no, we got this team actually favored over
- 7:20the other, so therefore let's hit that team at -110 and 'cause
- 7:24that steam in their direction. So it looks to me, and this is
- 7:27not an opinion, it's based on the market, that the wise guys
- 7:29are going with Cincinnati. And that's who I'm going with
- 7:32guys, because the Reds open -110 We've now seen the Reds get
- 7:35steamed up to -130 I jumped on the Reds at -125 a little bit
- 7:41earlier today. And again, you can still shop
- 7:43around and get a 130, some books even inching toward -135 but
- 7:47that's about a, you know, 15, you know, cent steam move here
- 7:52or, you know, 3020 cent steam move.
- 7:54Even $0.25 in favor of the Reds tells me a lot of big money came
- 7:58in here on Cincinnati. Now, I really like the bet
- 8:01splits on the Reds. At DraftKings, Cincinnati's
- 8:03getting 64% of money line bets, 80% of money line dollars.
- 8:08And then at Circa, a big discrepancy, only 45% of money
- 8:13line bets are on the Reds, but they're taking into account 97%
- 8:17of money line dollars. So when I'm looking at splits in
- 8:20line movement, I want a line move and low bets higher dollars
- 8:23at both DraftKings and Circa in favor of the team getting a line
- 8:26move. So that's exactly what we're
- 8:28seeing here in favor of Cincinnati.
- 8:30Now, the Reds would have classic interleague favorite value, lack
- 8:33of familiarity, benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
- 8:36But I do have quite a few system matches on the Reds.
- 8:39If we look at home favorites off a win with a winning record and
- 8:42a line move in their favor, those teams are 114 and 5966%
- 8:47with a 4% ROI this year. Interleague home favorites who
- 8:50missed the postseason, playing an opponent who also missed the
- 8:53postseason, 46 and 2466 percent, 7% ROI.
- 8:58And if that same situation includes A-Team off a win, they
- 9:03improved to 28 and 10 this year, 74% with a 21% ROI.
- 9:08I'm going to bank on the Reds bats hopefully getting to Bailey
- 9:11over today. On the year, they're hitting
- 9:1324782 homers, 341 run scored. Minnesota meanwhile hitting
- 9:1824276 homers, 300 run scored. Reds.
- 9:22Also, by the way, we got a righty for Minnesota and a lefty
- 9:25for the Reds. Well the Reds are hitting 258
- 9:28against righties this year, that's 4th best in baseball.
- 9:31Twins are only hitting 229 against lefties, that ranks
- 9:3420th. Look at the last 10 Reds are
- 9:37playing pretty well, eight and two over their last ten, hitting
- 9:39270 with a 3.84 team RA. Look at the other side, the
- 9:44Twins two and eight over their last ten, only hitting 246 with
- 9:48a 6.38 team ERA. Lastly, home Rd.
- 9:51Reds 19 and 16 at home. Nothing crazy, but three games
- 9:55above 500. Twinkies just 16 and 24 on the
- 9:58road, losing record. But again, you open out a pick.
- 10:02You got a sharp split in a big steam move in favor of Cincy.
- 10:05I got to take the Reds in the spot, guys, so shop around.
- 10:08I got the Reds -125 some books again, as high as -130 -. 135
- 10:13right now. Next bet for you, Let's go down
- 10:17to Hot Lanta. New York Mets visiting the
- 10:20Atlanta Braves, 7:15 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
- 10:23The Braves 32 and 39, won last night.
- 10:27Series opener and extra innings, 5 to 4 over.
- 10:29The Mets came through as a -145 home favorite for tonight's
- 10:33rematch. The Mets, who are 45 and 28,
- 10:35they're going to go with the ready Paul Blackburn.
- 10:37He's O&O or you know, O&O with a 6.75 ERA.
- 10:42Meanwhile, the Braves are going to go with the lefty Chris Sale,
- 10:45the southpaw ace, four and four, 2.79 ERA.
- 10:49Now, what have we seen across the market for this one?
- 10:51This game opened with a pretty big favorite here.
- 10:54Atlanta, of course, with sail on the bump and the Braves at home
- 10:57around -175 for the Braves. New York around a + 145 Rd. dog
- 11:02and we've seen nothing but movement in favor of the Braves.
- 11:05Braves have now gotten steamed up -175 up to -185 some shops
- 11:11even -190 I jumped on the Braves at -180 I believe ESPN bet might
- 11:16still have that -180 available. But again, shop around because
- 11:20some books as high as -190. But it's notable to me that even
- 11:23though the Braves open as kind of a big favorite, they've only
- 11:26become more of a favorite. It's not like sharps have said,
- 11:28hey, this line's too high, let's take Mets and 'cause that line
- 11:31to drop. No, it's gone further toward
- 11:33Atlanta. Now.
- 11:34One thing I really like about the Braves, if you go out to
- 11:36Circa in Vegas, the Braves are only getting 15% of money line
- 11:40bets, but 77% of money line dollars.
- 11:44A huge low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the Braves.
- 11:47Then you look at some system matches.
- 11:49Here I have 5 systems overall lit up on Atlanta.
- 11:53Home favorites with line movement in their direction, who
- 11:55also made the playoffs the previous year, 154 and 73 this
- 11:59season, 68 percent 8% ROI. Home favorites who made the
- 12:03playoffs the previous season playing opponent who also made
- 12:05the playoffs, 72 and 3766 percent, 12% ROI.
- 12:11Then if you also look at some other variations, home favorites
- 12:15-185 or more, who made the playoffs the previous year?
- 12:18Overall this season, they're 89 and 2020, 876% with an 8% ROI.
- 12:24And then it also got me thinking, if you're a below 500
- 12:27team, again, the Braves are only 32 and 39, and you're a big
- 12:30favorite against an above 500 team like the Mets, 45 and 28.
- 12:35Well, guess what? Sub 500 favorites who are -180
- 12:38or more playing an opponent who made the postseason the previous
- 12:41year. They are 28 and 10 this season,
- 12:4574% with an 11% ROI. Braves, by the way, are 11 and
- 12:50473% with a 5% ROI as a home favorite -184 or or more.
- 12:56So when the Braves are a home favorite, a big home favorite,
- 12:59typically they're coming through in this spot Sale.
- 13:01Of course, you know you can pick out a lot of numbers to make him
- 13:04look good. But he has a 1.38 ERA and two
- 13:08June starts. He's only giving up two runs and
- 13:1013 innings, and he's giving up one earned run or less and six
- 13:14of his last seven starts. Braves have been really bad on
- 13:17the road, but they've been pretty good at home, 20 and 15.
- 13:20Mets are just a 500 club on the road, 18 and 18.
- 13:23So even though it's kind of a big number, it's only gone up.
- 13:27You can still get them sub 200. We have some good good bet
- 13:30splits, good system matches. I'm back in Chris Sale tonight,
- 13:34guys, give me the Braves. I got Atlanta -180 again.
- 13:38Shop around. Some books closer to -190 last
- 13:42bit of the night, 10:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
- 13:45Let's go right back to the Dodgers.
- 13:48Los Angeles Dodgers hosting tonight, the San Diego Padres.
- 13:52Now Dodgers who are 45 and 29. They've taken the first two
- 13:55games of this four-game series. They won the opener six to three
- 13:59as a -175 home favorite. They won again last night, 8 to
- 14:026 as a -, 225 home favorite. In tonight's rematch, the
- 14:06Padres, who are 39 and 33, they're going to go with the
- 14:10ready Stephen Kolek. He's three and two of the 3.5 O
- 14:13ERA. Dodgers, meanwhile, are going to
- 14:15go with the ready Emmett Sheehan, who is making his 2025
- 14:19debut. He actually has not pitched
- 14:21since 20/20/23. He's coming off of Tommy John.
- 14:25But last season he pitched in 2023.
- 14:27He went four and one with a 4.92 ERA for the Dodgers.
- 14:31And what are we seeing here? Well, nothing but steam on the
- 14:35Dodgers. Give me the Dodgers tonight,
- 14:36guys. Dodgers open this game as low as
- 14:38a - 170 home favorite San Diego around a + 150 row dog.
- 14:43We've now seen the Dodgers get steamed up all the way -170 up
- 14:47to -200 some shops even -2 O 5 - 210.
- 14:52Now, I was able to find dodgers -198 at FanDuel.
- 14:56So again, shop around, try to get the lowest price you
- 14:58possibly can. But a lot of reasons like the
- 15:00Dodgers, aside from this massive steam move, they are, they have
- 15:04a really good bet split at Circa, only 29% of money line
- 15:08bets, but 66% of money line dollars.
- 15:11Big big sharp split there in favor of the Dodgers out in
- 15:14Vegas. And then I have 7 system matches
- 15:17on LA. Here's some of the best ones.
- 15:19Big home favorites -200 or more who made the playoffs the
- 15:22previous year? 74 and 2079 percent, 10% ROI.
- 15:28Home favorite who made the post season playing opponent who also
- 15:30made the postseason. Basically a big game. 2 good
- 15:33teams. Typically the favorite wins that
- 15:35game. 72 and 3766 percent, 12% ROI.
- 15:40This year, home favorites of the line move in their direction who
- 15:43also made the playoffs the previous year. 154 and 7368
- 15:47percent 8% ROI. So a lot of systems here and
- 15:51close to 6570% win rate or higher in favor of the Dodgers.
- 15:57Dodgers also have the better bats.
- 15:58Let's hope that they can get to Kolek here and and Sheehan can
- 16:01pitch well. But Dodgers are hitting 265 on
- 16:04the year, 115 homers, 413 runs scored.
- 16:08Padres are hitting 2:48 with 62 homers and 304 runs scored.
- 16:13Dodgers by the way, 27 and 12 at home.
- 16:16One of the best home records in baseball.
- 16:18Padres are just 18 and 21 on the road.
- 16:21So even though it's a big number, but nothing but steam in
- 16:23favor of the Dodgers. Good bet.
- 16:25Splits a ton of system matches. I'm going to back the Dodgers
- 16:28once again here, guys. Again, they're up to as high as
- 16:30-2 O 5 - 210. But if you shop around, you
- 16:33might still be able to get -198 at FanDuel.
- 16:37And again, since he's only -125 -, 130, but the Braves, the
- 16:40Dodgers closer to -200. Remember, always bet to risk,
- 16:44not bet to win. If you're betting the Dodgers
- 16:46with me tonight, you're not betting to win, which would mean
- 16:49you're risking 2 units to win one unit.
- 16:51You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little,
- 16:54hopefully a little tiny bit more than 1/2 unit back.
- 16:56But let's go dodgers, let's go Braves and let's go red legs.
- 17:01So that about does it for episode 3 O one of the all
- 17:04systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 17:06Of course, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up
- 17:10and I start first, as always, by saying thank you.
- 17:13Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
- 17:15busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
- 17:18sharp data-driven plays with me. If you do enjoy the pod, if you
- 17:22value the insights, win, lose or draw, tail fade, pick and
- 17:26choose, sit back and just listen to the breakdowns.
- 17:28If you tune in, it means a lot to me.
- 17:31And if you do enjoy the pod, you want to let me know you
- 17:33appreciate the pod. Please could you give this
- 17:35podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes if you want to
- 17:40click the follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
- 17:42as it drops. Each day you get a little alert
- 17:44telling you the newest episode is available or you want to
- 17:47leave a nice comment under the review section, or you just want
- 17:50to recommend the pod. Word of mouth to a friend.
- 17:52Hey, you bet on baseball everyday.
- 17:54Check out the all systems go pot.
- 17:56This guy Josh Applebaum usually highlights some sharp plays each
- 17:58day. I would very much appreciate
- 18:00that as well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
- 18:03betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, we're
- 18:07not getting betting games based on what we think or want or hope
- 18:10to happen. We're betting games based on
- 18:12what the market is telling us. And if this kind of style of
- 18:16betting has appealed to you, you've seen some of the fruits
- 18:18of the labor again, WNBA, you might not be able to name a
- 18:22single player outside of Caitlin Clark, but we saw that a bad
- 18:25team was getting steamed pretty well with system matches and bet
- 18:28splits and the wings came through for us.
- 18:30That's the beauty of data-driven betting.
- 18:32If you can read the market, it don't.
- 18:34You don't have to be an expert in the sport to turn a profit.
- 18:37That's the whole point of this style of betting because if you
- 18:40can read the numbers and where the money's flowing, that's
- 18:42really more than half the battle.
- 18:44But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, if
- 18:46you want to let me know you appreciate the pod, if you have
- 18:48someone in your life who maybe we could use a few data-driven,
- 18:51data-driven tips. I would love for you guys to go
- 18:54to Amazon.com and then type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
- 18:59That's my new book. It comes out August 12th.
- 19:01I just saw it's the number one new release on Amazon.
- 19:03So pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp betting Playbook.
- 19:06And then if you're looking for just tips on data-driven betting
- 19:11in in general, you should then search in Amazon.com the
- 19:14Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 19:16Pick up a copy for you or a friend.
- 19:18It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
- 19:19How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
- 19:22movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
- 19:25person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
- 19:28a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
- 19:31Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 19:33So bring the Everything Guide or the NFL Sharp Betting playbook
- 19:36to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
- 19:38buy you a beer next. Have you downloaded rhythm and
- 19:42juice reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
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- 19:47You know that that that girl was it all about that bass?
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- 20:00predictions for game bets and player props.
- 20:03They had WNBA models, they got NBA Finals.
- 20:06Looks like Halliburton is banged up and.
- 20:09We've seen the closeout game here OK, C - 6 tomorrow to win
- 20:12the title. That total did drop 225 to 221.
- 20:16But anyway, you're looking for player props game models for
- 20:20baseball NBAWNBA before we get back to football rhythms got you
- 20:24covered for that and then also juice reel Juice reel is a
- 20:28fantastic all-encompassing app. If you enjoy the pod and you
- 20:31want to support the pod, you can also sign up to get the
- 20:33exclusive best bet picks from the all systems go pod only on
- 20:38Juice Reel. So if you I'm going to pass the
- 20:40hat this pods free. I always joke about this, but if
- 20:43you like the pod, you want to support the pod, drop in a $5.00
- 20:46bill. It costs $4.99 through the
- 20:49juicer lap to get those exclusive all systems go best
- 20:52bet picks. You're supporting the pod and
- 20:54also hopefully you're getting these games a little bit earlier
- 20:56in the day and beating some closing lines.
- 20:59Also, you will get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
- 21:02sharp mush indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
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- 21:22Give him a five star view in the App Store while you're at it.
- 21:25Lastly, do you have a live odds page?
- 21:28You need one. You got to have a live odds
- 21:30page. You got to know which direction
- 21:32the line is moving. All the games available to bet
- 21:33that day. Shop for the best line.
- 21:36Identify Steam. As soon as lines move, they
- 21:38immediately get lit up in red. You can identify big money
- 21:42moving across the market, but really the live odds page, it
- 21:44lets you track the market looking at line history and, and
- 21:48finding that best number. And it's, and it's got all
- 21:50sports included as well as all the different sports books
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- 21:56that you like, but it's expensive.
- 21:58Or maybe you have one that's free, but it's delayed.
- 22:00It doesn't have a lot of books, doesn't give you nearly all the
- 22:02information you need. Well, I would highly recommend
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- 22:17It's not about dozen guys for episode 3 O1.
- 22:19Let's keep the good times rolling, hopefully with some
- 22:22baseball winners tonight. Knock on wood.
- 22:24But as always, I'll leave you with two final thoughts.
- 22:26One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 22:30River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods
- 22:33or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 22:35Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, or MGM Springfield or
- 22:39the Nash in Nashville, New Hampshire in my neck of the
- 22:41woods. Or of course, out in the desert
- 22:43where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
- 22:46runners where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
- 22:48Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 22:50plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
- 22:52When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
- 22:55you're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me a
- 22:57Cubbies ticket, huge home run by Saya Suzuki late in that game,
- 23:01Tigers ticket, a Florida Panthers, Brad Marsh, and ticket
- 23:05most of all a Dallas Wings. Not knowing a thing about WNBA,
- 23:09but knowing how to read the market, that was one of those
- 23:12plays where if they had lost, you're like, what the hell.
- 23:14But they came through. And that really kind of instills
- 23:17faith in the process of data-driven betting because a
- 23:20hazmat suit play with the wings. It came through, baby.
- 23:23Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
- 23:25you will post about the book and sweat these three baseball games
- 23:28together tonight as always, guys four and one, one and four, five
- 23:32and OO and five again, two and three, 3:00 and 2:00 somewhere
- 23:36in the middle. Hot, cold, great night, terrible
- 23:39night, grinding somewhere in the middle.
- 23:41We can't get too high. When we're doing well, we can't
- 23:43get too low and we're struggling.
- 23:45I always remember this. This sports betting market is
- 23:47difficult to beat on a consistent basis.
- 23:49Anyone can have a good night. It's all about the long term,
- 23:52trying to grind out a profit. And of course, you might know by
- 23:55now or you may not, but this is really the model that we're
- 23:57looking for. We're looking for games that fit
- 24:00and check off all the boxes and then fit our criteria against
- 24:03the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
- 24:06parlays, get that closing line value.
- 24:08If we can do that long term, and I'm confident that we can and
- 24:12guess what, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 24:14So have a fantastic Wednesday night everybody.
- 24:17Be back at it tomorrow for a big thirsty Thursday.
- 24:19That'll be edition 3O2 of the All Systems Go sports betting
- 24:23podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
- 24:26great hump day.