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Foresight, Tech and Trust: How to Plan Ahead When The Future Stops Behaving Linearly (EP 19) · The In-Between Tech and Trust Podcast

0:14
Hello, this is Eva and you're listening to the In Between Tech
0:18
and Trust podcast. And in today's episode, we talk
0:21
about one of my favorite topics and that is the future.
0:25
And when we talk about the future, currently, there's so
0:29
much uncertainty. Like everyone that you ask, they
0:32
say they cannot plan more than five to six months ahead because
0:36
we find ourselves in this tech acceleration, like this
0:40
technological acceleration of times also with these rapid
0:44
innovation cycles and kind of information overload that
0:47
everyone just is a bit exhausted.
0:50
But at the same time, we do need to find ways to plan and we also
0:55
need to be able to trust into what we plan towards and to look
1:00
into scenarios of how it actually looks like.
1:02
And for that, I have one of the best experts with me in
1:05
conversation, and that is Professor Doctor Heiko
1:08
Vandekart. And Heiko speaks from more than
1:11
20 years of experience as a professor of foresight and also
1:16
as a business practitioner. And he shares with us of what it
1:19
means to apply a future's literacy of how we can also make
1:24
use to plan ahead and use foresight planning for actual
1:29
business operations and how we as leaders can prepare for the
1:33
futures ahead by making up our minds and think about different
1:37
kinds of scenarios. He also proposes for specific
1:41
ones, but I leave them for you to explore throughout to the
1:44
upcoming conversation. Hello Haiku, and welcome to the
1:51
In Between Tech and Trust podcast.
1:53
Hi Eva, Many thanks for inviting me.
1:55
Great to be here. It's so great to have you
1:57
because I was really looking forward to having the
2:00
conversation on the intersection of foresight, technology and
2:04
human systems with you. You've been thinking about like
2:08
these contexts for many like years and you've also followed
2:12
the trends and ecosystems for quite some time.
2:15
And particularly when it comes to trust and like these areas, I
2:20
would love your opinion on what has shifted most fundamentally
2:24
across the past couple of months and years.
2:26
I'm really engaged in the topic of future for many years, for
2:30
for more than 20 years now. Every day I try to look into the
2:34
future and do this in a very valid way, not only as a
2:37
professor in foresight, but also as a business practitioner.
2:41
But it's always the core question is what might be the
2:44
next big thing, what are very valid scenarios to work with?
2:48
And in essence, it's always about making better decisions,
2:51
right? So this is what the foresight
2:54
profession is seeking for. And we've seen that there is a
2:58
professionalization among young people.
3:00
So I was able to train over 9000 people over the past 20 years
3:05
and educate them in scenario planning, scenario techniques.
3:09
But that's not the only technique today.
3:12
If we want to plan for the future, then we know actually
3:15
more than 40 different techniques.
3:18
Yeah. And most organizations or
3:20
individuals, they like to plan with three or four of them.
3:23
So it depends on the context. And as a researcher, I would say
3:27
if you choose carefully and if you know the tools in place and
3:31
you can combine them, then this adds to the clarity for the
3:35
future and also gives you a better feeling and decision
3:38
making under in times of uncertainty.
3:40
So trust is always a central thing in in the scenario and the
3:45
projects we do because each scenario exercise where you
3:48
simulate, you don't want to predict the future, right?
3:50
But where you simulate multiple futures in order to see how
3:55
different strategies and actions play out in those scenarios,
3:59
right? It's really a very comprehensive
4:01
and network thinking process. So we tend to often first focus
4:06
on technology, but there are other dimensions we have to look
4:11
at equally. And this is the social dimension
4:14
that ecologic ecology that I mentioned, legal aspects.
4:18
Yeah, we have to look into economic things for sure.
4:21
Human people, society. And you can have in the end, the
4:24
best scenario analysis, but it's always in the end the human
4:28
decision, right? So it's good craftsmanship, but
4:32
we have to look about the human decision process and the biases
4:36
as well. So this is what I'm doing in my
4:38
in my profession and I'm helping I think people to, to enable
4:43
this organization to enable scenario planning, to foster
4:46
this scenario thinking and to professionalise.
4:50
And the interesting part of also the polls that you just
4:53
highlighted is on the one hand, side decisions under clarity in
4:58
terms of also providing context, and on the other side that the
5:02
context gets even more complex. How does that fit together?
5:07
And how do you also navigate as an leader, as an like also CEO,
5:12
for example, to bring that together to create clarity under
5:16
times of complexity and to also communicate it to your teams and
5:21
organizations for them to steer forward?
5:23
Yeah, that's, that's a good question because if you go back
5:26
to the 1970s, right, there's a very Seminole paper in in
5:30
research was published on environmental uncertainty and
5:34
the degree of uncertainty certainty we feel when we take
5:36
decisions. This is complexity plus the
5:39
degree of dynamics. Complexity means how many things
5:43
are there out interacting that I have to have on my radar and the
5:48
dynamics, how fast things are changing, right.
5:51
And we can say with international division of labour
5:54
and we have two big organizations, they have to
5:58
manage 304 hundred suppliers as a supplier base.
6:02
Yeah, this adds to complexity, right?
6:04
And if you look at the dynamics, we see that with different
6:08
communication patterns, things are going faster.
6:10
The communication is faster, see conversational AI, we will see
6:14
real time translation in the future much more.
6:17
So this adds to the dynamics. So we have a doubling effect,
6:20
right, in what we feel if if situations are uncertain and we
6:24
use acronyms, abbreviations for this the VUCA world from the
6:27
military. Yeah, this is volatile,
6:30
uncertain, complex or even Barney, which means more chaos,
6:33
brittle world. And this these abbreviations
6:38
describe the status we are in of many people feel right.
6:41
However, you have to take into account that there's a
6:44
difference between the, the subjective, the perceived
6:48
uncertainty and the true environmental uncertainty,
6:51
because this is also largely shaped by the media, by the
6:54
perceptions we have by our direct environment.
6:57
And there are studies actually researching cation patterns and
7:01
examining the voice, the tone of virus we use in in books and,
7:05
and and in newspapers, etcetera. And over the past 50 to 60
7:10
years, there is an index value. We lost 25% in positive
7:14
communication. So you see that we tend to sell
7:19
the news and talk in much more negative way.
7:23
And from innovation literature and and research, we know if we
7:28
are in a good mood right, then there is a greater output and
7:32
there's a greater sense of innovation.
7:34
Yeah, we have up to 25% more more capable of innovation.
7:39
We are. So this is important.
7:41
If we think about the future, and if you want to shape the
7:44
future, then a positive mood accelerates.
7:49
But when we talk about trust today, according to your opinion
7:54
and also according to your conversations that you have on
7:57
like the different futures that we're currently looking at, what
8:01
has shifted most fundamentally when we talk about trust?
8:05
Yeah, so trust in in easy, but I would I would say it's the
8:09
confidence in another, right and the belief that holds our
8:13
relationships together. And we we always think that we
8:17
are we live in the most chaotic times.
8:19
Yeah. But if I like to use historical
8:22
analogies and this is one of the 40 techniques of futurists and
8:26
you see that there is all has always been propaganda,
8:29
misinformation. You have seen industrial
8:31
revolutions going on. So people always felt some
8:35
uncertainty and drastic situations.
8:39
But what has changed is of course the pace of innovation
8:42
and the progress if it comes to technology and also the virtual
8:47
worlds, right Internet and the spaces that have been created.
8:50
So these spaces, they have new rules.
8:53
We see in those new environments their own incentives.
8:57
We have specific own physics and it means that we act in in
9:01
spaces which, which are faster, more anonymous, We see they are
9:05
more scalable and less accountable.
9:07
And those virtual worlds in region.
9:10
And if we compare them with the analogical society in real life,
9:14
yeah, they they really shape by shaped by anonymity.
9:19
So trust in our classic setting means proximity.
9:23
So you have shared norms and and institutions.
9:27
And this is shifting. This has shifts.
9:28
So there are different spaces with new rules and they open up.
9:33
I don't want to be only negative, right?
9:35
Technology isn't bad. Yeah, good or bad thing.
9:38
It's it can be used in either way, right?
9:41
Two sides of the matter. And those spaces, they can only
9:46
also enable us. They create participation, they
9:50
create network, they create the spaces for education all around
9:55
the world. You can have access to the best
9:58
education online and massive open online courses.
10:01
So two sides of the matter, right?
10:04
And in a more anonymous way, we have to counteract and find a
10:09
new mechanisms. And you talked about like those
10:12
spaces and the mechanisms. And in the work that I do and
10:16
the encounters that I have, I oftentimes realize that creating
10:20
those spaces, and I call them the so-called in between states
10:24
of like what is mutually perceived as real and what is
10:27
also served as a basis to debate the future.
10:31
It's free. It's become quite hard to do so,
10:34
but not because we don't do it, but rather because we are
10:37
challenged to embrace different kinds of opinions and also find
10:41
mutual grounds. And if I would put out the
10:44
hypothesis, we're not just debating the future.
10:47
We need to have the spaces to agree on reality while embracing
10:52
like different kinds of opinions.
10:54
Would you agree on that? This is a bold, very powerful
10:57
hypothesis, right? I wouldn't agree blindly, but I
11:00
have several things that come to my mind when when I listen to
11:04
you and your hypothesis. A key point is that over the
11:08
past years, we've seen dramatic increase in the knowledge
11:12
explosion, right. So this is really at sometimes
11:17
it's overwhelming. Analysts predict that over the
11:21
next years until the year 2050, everything we know today only
11:26
makes 1% of the overall knowledge.
11:29
So in 2000 and 5099% of our knowledge might be new.
11:34
Yeah. And I've also recognized this
11:37
over the past years in the established trend databases and
11:41
my futurist channels. We are also organized the
11:44
networks, right, the futurists around the world.
11:46
And you see that 20 years ago I probably spotted 10 or 20 or 30
11:53
very original new things, innovation, nice cases per
11:56
month, right In my work which I used then also my scenario works
12:01
scenario projects. And today there are 200 to 300
12:05
per month. Yeah.
12:06
So the, the trend databases are actually fluted by by insights
12:11
by cases, by crowdfunding platforms, etcetera.
12:15
And this yeah, this is a new situation, right, very drastic
12:19
in an innovation speed. So with all those massive
12:25
information and also in some cases misinformation, deep
12:29
fakes, fake news, etcetera, is it it has become harder to
12:32
create a shared common sense of reality.
12:35
And usually, if you plan for the future, you would say used to
12:39
have quite stable status quo situations today as is.
12:44
And we were then able to project into the future and draw the
12:48
different scenarios. But we've seen even with COVID
12:51
times that if the premises change fast from week to week in
12:56
between months, then your scenarios are already obsolete.
12:59
And this is this is a new challenge in an, in a world of
13:02
accelerated pace. So University of Oxford and
13:05
others, they have started to use actually technology as well in
13:09
the foresight discipline to make the projects and to make the
13:13
tools and techniques more agile and frugal.
13:16
They call it even the frugal scenario planning.
13:19
Why? Because you, you have to adapt,
13:21
you have to find mechanisms to be more adaptive to, to the
13:25
changes that you see. So scenario work has never been
13:28
a solo trip. It is always a strategic
13:31
conversation. This is really, really important
13:34
to consider. And if you see the history of
13:37
foresight, of future planning, scenario planning over the past
13:41
decades and from starting from the 70s, this was always about
13:47
plurality and what the different perspectives and the views of
13:51
the future. So we say we have different
13:53
thinking heads, right? As foresight professionals, you
13:56
not only look at the probable future, but there is also the
14:00
normative scenario, the desired future.
14:02
So the target, where do I want to be?
14:04
What is my, my North star, my desired future?
14:07
And there's also the space of opportunities, preferable
14:12
futures. You have the surprising future
14:14
and this has become a major part of today's foresight
14:19
professionals also to look at all those different future
14:22
perspectives. So surprising futures, white
14:24
cards, black Swans, surprising events.
14:27
This takes a lot of care today as well.
14:30
And the interesting part that in your work you not only look at
14:34
those like different kinds of scenarios and like also
14:37
different kinds of routes that you can take, but you also aim
14:40
and collaborate with organizations to build
14:42
resilience. Now we live in so-called times
14:46
of tech acceleration. So technology is an essence of
14:50
your work as well. On the one hand side, how do you
14:53
build resilience with those organizations and what has
14:57
changed through tech? Well, resilience means that you
15:01
learn from crisis, from drastic situations you you were in and
15:06
that you become stronger afterwards, right?
15:09
And this is, if important, yeah. The whole discipline of
15:13
foresight actually, yeah, adds to this, contributes to this.
15:17
As we've just said, there is uncertainty usually if you use
15:21
historic data and you extrapolate it, right.
15:24
And in many cases, we still do this.
15:26
But it's dangerous to do this if you live in turbulent and
15:30
disruptive times because future history shows that in most cases
15:34
it came, it wasn't different than the future.
15:37
And disruption usually comes from all the other industries,
15:40
not the industry I'm, I'm sitting in.
15:42
So the scenarios and, and the foresight discipline means to
15:46
prepare better for future incidents, for things that
15:49
could, that might happen. And this adds to the flexibility
15:53
of your organization. You can react faster.
15:55
You could even if you want to be a front runner, you could get
15:58
into alliances and you start shaping the markets.
16:02
So this is very, very powerful and therefore the whole thinking
16:07
of futures, futures planning that's to to make an
16:11
organization in the end more future robust or future ready,
16:14
right. That's to your future, future
16:16
preparedness. And we see there's been
16:19
empirical research of colleague on what makes it really a
16:23
sustainable organization. Yeah, a future proof
16:25
organization. And from an academic
16:28
perspective, you would compare organizations largely investing
16:32
in into foresight with organizations that don't.
16:35
And you would compare organizations that haven't done
16:38
so with their status later when they started to invest into
16:43
foresight, right? These are the classic
16:45
comparisons you do in a longer longitudinal study.
16:48
And this has been done over the past 10 years.
16:50
And we can now empirically prove that if you invest into into
16:56
professionalization of your planning practices right, then
16:59
this adds to your performance, to your growth, etc.
17:02
So it has a clear impact on your organizational performance.
17:06
And if you now trim that down a bit and if you would make the
17:10
profession of a futurist more tangible, could you share with
17:13
me and the audience what you're currently working on and what
17:16
also your expectations are regarding tech and intelligence?
17:21
And maybe if you may and want to also provide a glimpse into the
17:26
future for you think the next big thing's going to be?
17:30
This is a this is a good one what keeps me awake right night.
17:34
So this is a core thing to structure all the things I stand
17:38
across every day. There are so many reports out
17:41
there and very good ones. You might have seen that World
17:46
Economic Forum two years ago they founded the Global
17:49
Foresight Network. I'm also participating in and
17:52
UNESCO has the futures literacy chairs at university.
17:56
So a lot of studies and very helpful reports are being
18:00
published and they all have certain assumptions, right, and
18:04
network thinking and they come up with single point forecast
18:07
estimates. When is something mature?
18:10
What about adoption rates? And the timing is also the
18:13
critical one. So if you see put them, and I've
18:17
done this, put them on on a timeline, you can see that
18:22
there's a lot of discussion centering around when AI will
18:25
reach human level, right? Artificial general intelligence,
18:29
etcetera. Some proclaim this is in the
18:32
year 2045, Others state this is happening earlier.
18:36
It's it has also cultural component.
18:39
If you ask this in Asia, they usually tend to see this earlier
18:44
than 2045. N Americans have proven in in
18:48
most recent research they they expect this to happen later.
18:53
If you ask very visionary people, they would even say next
18:57
week or next year, yeah. So this there's also cultural,
19:02
normal cultural thing that we have to consider.
19:04
But I think the whole thing of artificial intelligence and the
19:09
work with agent and agent ecosystems, yeah, this is
19:13
accelerating very fast. Yeah.
19:15
So I, I could even see that in the next months, we would
19:19
probably eliminate the out of office mail and have our, our
19:22
own personal AI copy responding. If somebody wants something, he
19:27
or she can just speak to my personal AI copy and my avatar
19:33
might be able to answer already some of the superficial
19:37
questions. And I'm very frequently asked,
19:40
Haiko, you're doing this every day, right?
19:43
So from your perspective, what's the next big thing, right?
19:46
And over the past 10 years and even more, we've seen the smart
19:50
classic smartphone, right? And the question is, are we now
19:54
entering an era of augmented computing?
19:58
I think so. So there's a lot of debates
20:01
going on about smart glasses, right?
20:03
So they might even be from their weight, 100 grams.
20:07
So quite light in the future. And I really see a renaissance
20:12
of city centres. Why?
20:14
Because if I'm wearing in the future, if I'm wearing smart
20:17
glasses, the city, the city centre looks every day, every
20:22
hour, it looks differently. So you have all those promotions
20:26
then going on and you have a second layer, yeah, from
20:29
infrastructure and notifications and things popping up in front
20:32
of you. So I believe that this is will
20:35
be a game changer and how we how we go through environments and
20:39
experience them. There were also came across
20:43
several cases of ADN solutions with AI in science.
20:48
So this will be a tremendous push artificial intelligence for
20:52
for how we understand science and how we innovate from physics
20:56
experiments, we we can see that they are the experimental is
21:00
graphical, yeah, but we cannot explain the outcome how the how
21:05
this this worked. So they do now reverse
21:08
engineering in order to find an explanation for the phenomenons
21:12
going on there. And this, this might be a true
21:15
case in the future that there are certain innovations explain
21:20
things happening, working in science which at once we cannot
21:25
explain, right. So I I think this is also a big,
21:28
big change for science. And one of the big changes that
21:31
is in one of the reports that you co-authored, you describe a
21:37
sequence so-called fake news, fake reality, fake futures.
21:41
Can you explain that, Shane? Because it sounds quite drastic
21:44
and at the same time it also represents something that's much
21:48
like much deeper as a societal context and also in the way of
21:52
how we form reality overall in essence.
21:55
Yeah. So this is a very specific
21:59
report. Yeah, it's called fake futures
22:02
and we really looked at fake news, the digital identities and
22:08
the tech space. Yeah, virtual words and how they
22:11
change our interaction, the positive things, but also the
22:14
challenges. Yeah.
22:15
And there there are certain examples for this phenomenon you
22:18
you are describing. It's like a chain from fake
22:22
news, right? There is some facts are being
22:25
created. It can be something like a
22:28
manipulated reporting or quite an unrealistic beauty standard
22:34
in social media. And this becomes somehow a fake
22:38
reality. Why?
22:39
Because it, it makes us believe that this has to be the norm and
22:44
we have to work towards this, right?
22:46
We have to change our appear, our our look and feel and to
22:51
respond to those images. And then this fake reality
22:55
becomes finally a fake future. So it's a paradox because fake
23:00
inputs don't stay fake, they solidify in the end in real
23:04
world outcomes. And to stick with this beauty
23:07
example, in social media, you see that then there are virtual
23:11
beauty full images and we have the virtual influencers.
23:18
Yeah. They create then a space or a
23:20
certain reality which permanently sticks to those
23:24
images which had initially been created as a manipulated word.
23:28
So this is the chain we we were describing there.
23:31
And this was also the point from where we entered our scenario
23:36
planning to develop scenarios of fake futures and do this along
23:42
different dimensions. Because if you, that's a very
23:45
classic scenario approach where you determine two key
23:48
uncertainties, right? And with those key
23:51
uncertainties, you set up a plot.
23:53
Yeah, a scenario canvas. And this is like a scatter plot
23:56
or a portfolio. And in our case, we said for the
24:00
future, it's important. There might be an extreme future
24:04
where we have a high trust in technology and society and the
24:07
state. Or on the opposite side on this
24:11
axis, there might be a strong mistrust in those things, right?
24:15
So we made this one of the key uncertainty axis, and the other
24:19
one is the perception of the world.
24:21
There might be 1 extreme poet which describes the only truth.
24:27
There's only one reality. Or we might end up in in a world
24:31
where we say it's all fake, right?
24:33
For certain reasons. And if you combine now those
24:37
extreme developments, right, you end up in 4 scenario quadrants.
24:42
So you combine a word of one reality and the one, only one
24:46
truth with trust in technology, the state and society.
24:50
Or you combine it with a fake word and a mistrust, for
24:55
example, and we ended up in 4 scenarios.
24:57
So it's a very iterative process, this really strong
25:01
process of research, but also a lot of interviewing, refinement
25:05
and quality criterion is that in the end, your scenario as you
25:10
describe, and each scenario might even take one A4 page,
25:13
right? So it's like a script where you
25:16
read into a story describing the future as if you were looking
25:20
back from this future. Yeah, this has to be very
25:24
consistent and plausible, right? Because if there's something not
25:28
consistent then you you spot this and it doesn't make sense.
25:32
And you've now touched upon like trust and mistrust scenarios.
25:36
And I'm always wondering what happens to trust leadership and
25:40
particularly also democracy, because I think democratic
25:43
values need to be guarded and also enabled through technology.
25:48
However, technology accelerates the creation of parallel truths
25:53
and also of the opportunity that they don't converge anymore.
25:57
How do you see that? And was that part of your
26:00
navigation of those future like predictions, derivations, future
26:04
outlooks? Yeah, it's as we discussed
26:07
before, the technology itself isn't good or bad.
26:10
It is rather an amplifier, an amplifier of of the situations
26:15
and we are experiencing. So I think we we are living in a
26:19
very powerful time where we can enable a lot of good things with
26:25
digital technologies. So this sharpens collective
26:29
understanding, can strengthen the participation, inclusion of
26:33
people and we can build on new trust architectures, right.
26:37
On the other side, it might also be a challenge right, to
26:42
maintain trust in such situations.
26:44
If misinformation is spreading at an unprecedented pace, these
26:50
are quite hard times. And it has two components,
26:53
right? Always see the historical
26:55
analogy from viruses and virus scanners.
26:58
And it's a race. It was a race already 10 years
27:02
and 15 years ago with technology and we experience now this now
27:06
with fakes and deepfakes. Yeah.
27:07
So there's a lot Everyday there are new applications, new apps,
27:11
technology being in place to spot deepfakes and fraud and to
27:16
avoid this and to protect you, right.
27:18
So take for good against tech which is used in a in a negative
27:23
way. This is the one situation using
27:25
tech yeah, to to counterfeit. On the other side, it's the
27:30
human aspect. So there has to be an
27:32
immunisation of us as human beings as well.
27:35
We have to think, we have to critically reflect.
27:38
We don't have must not be very naive in applications and things
27:42
we do right. And this cognitive immunisation
27:46
is critical thinking. It's really important in ongoing
27:50
technological times. So it's, it's in any, any of the
27:55
studies and reports coming out on skills, on future skills.
27:59
This is usually one of the top three right critical thinking.
28:03
And the interesting part is, and we also talked about that in our
28:07
pre conversation that we tend to negatify futures or we also tend
28:13
to look into the way of how those scenarios could be the
28:17
absolute like hard cut, also like negative impact.
28:22
And if you now talk about the way that we frame it, if you
28:26
talk about positive outlooks, why is it so hard for us to
28:30
infiltrate that into the movement and also see the
28:33
opportunities and the change and we'll also modify futures in
28:38
that regard? Yeah.
28:40
So first of all, it's, it depends on the context and the
28:43
situation we we are in. If you are.
28:45
Actually, I was just, you know, overstating.
28:47
Yeah, yeah. If you're in crisis times, then
28:51
this also effects you that you think more negatively.
28:54
Yeah. And some psychologists even say
28:56
the way you are looking into the future in general is a really a
29:00
personal subjective thing. And it's like a personality
29:03
trait. Yeah.
29:04
So you are tend to be a visionary person, being more an
29:07
optimist or others seem to more be more sceptical.
29:11
And then there are certain types who want to shape and to do
29:15
something now, right. So this is can be like a
29:17
personality thing, a personality trait.
29:20
There is been foresight science, there's a research strand and
29:24
it's called science fiction prototyping.
29:27
And some tech firms, they have even institutionalized this as a
29:30
tool, as a technique, right? So they use artifacts from
29:34
novels and from science fiction movies and literature and use
29:39
this as a very strong trigger to innovate and to foster tech,
29:43
tech innovation. So we've seen from Star Trek the
29:46
communicator. Yeah, with a strong image and
29:49
analogy to to the smartphone. We have seen the replicator,
29:52
which you can see in 3DS printing today.
29:55
The jetpack from NASA used to be on a comic cover.
30:00
Night Rider with David Hesselhoff.
30:02
Yeah, it's autonomous driving and conversational AI
30:06
communication. There are many of those examples
30:09
we tend to over estimate. Yeah.
30:11
So this might be a bias. If we, if we look at technology,
30:15
we many cases think this is going to happen the next two
30:18
years. But we see lobbyism against it.
30:21
And in many, many cases, if something becomes then a mass
30:25
technology, it takes time, right?
30:26
Sometimes more time than we at first, Lance, think it takes,
30:31
right. And Terminator and all those
30:33
science fiction movies. Yeah, we have those images in
30:35
our head and we tend then to project those futures as well.
30:41
This is why. And I know we come now to the
30:43
end of our episode, but I do have like 1 pressing question
30:46
that I definitely want to ask. And it's about the four
30:49
scenarios that you stretched and the mechanism that you just also
30:53
provided to us. Because I think it's so valuable
30:56
to see if you use that like mechanism or also the tool in
31:01
future thinking yourself. And was that part of like,
31:05
deriving the four scenarios of Age of Enlightenment, Infinite
31:09
History, Truth Machine, and the end of the story yourselves, or
31:14
how did you approach it? Well, as I said, you always
31:17
start with two key uncertainties about the future.
31:20
Then you define the extreme outcomes that they might have in
31:24
the future. You think black or white.
31:26
And then you combine those extreme outcomes into plausible
31:31
and consistent scenarios. And as you said, one of the
31:33
scenarios was the Age of Enlightenment.
31:35
Why? Because then we combine the one
31:38
truth, there's only one truth, together with trust in
31:41
technology. And just imagine we we have
31:45
device ecosystems on us, on our body.
31:48
Yeah, the smart watch, we might have a necklace with sensors and
31:52
a live stream at with the sense of word models and physical AI
31:56
into the machine. And then somehow an AI
31:59
governance has the potential right to take all those snippets
32:04
and pieces from the billions of people and combine this into the
32:07
one single truth. You see the same situation from
32:10
multiple angles. So this is the one scenario.
32:13
Then another one is infinite history.
32:15
It doesn't matter for for us. So maybe young people.
32:18
Then whether this is is a fake reality or whether this is the
32:22
true reality, we could see metaverse words emerging,
32:26
exploding. Billions of new words are being
32:29
created. Well, this is it fulfills our
32:31
desires in those virtual worlds, we can imagine and and see what
32:35
we what we like to experience. And then there might be the
32:38
third scenario word which describes something different.
32:41
There is a very absolute control of government or media
32:44
monopolies. So you have the one single
32:47
truth. And this comes from this such a
32:49
monopoly, right? And it's about an influencing
32:52
principle. So it's a very uniform world
32:55
where you have a mistrust in technology, but it's shaped by a
33:00
very strong monopoly, only one reality for all.
33:03
And the society in such a scenario is missed as a strong
33:06
mistrust, but it's also uniformly united, right?
33:10
And then there is a very crazy chaotic one.
33:13
This is the last scenario, right?
33:15
It's the end of the story actually, where you have an all
33:19
fake word. And this might be due to AI
33:22
spamming the word. Yeah.
33:23
Just imagine out of an AI, out of control, spamming all the
33:28
communication channels. And we have a strong mistrust.
33:31
And in such a situation, we cannot trust some information or
33:35
any information anymore. And it becomes that this is for
33:39
us, maybe then for us as humans, a new normal.
33:42
Yeah. So we are looking for protective
33:45
zones in such a scenario where we have off time and where we do
33:49
not use technology as extensive anymore.
33:53
So four different scenarios and the core question is always what
33:56
if? Yeah, the truth is probably
33:59
somehow in between. But scenario thinking helps you
34:03
to think out-of-the-box, right? And always to discuss things you
34:07
would normally not discuss. And that's also the purpose of
34:11
the fake future scenarios. Yeah, to extend our thinking, to
34:14
shape a debate and to get into a strategic conversation, as I
34:18
just said in the beginning of our talk.
34:21
I appreciate that so much and I would love to have you over and
34:23
like due time to also see if where we're headed and if we can
34:27
already derive off like some of the in betweens of all of those
34:31
scenarios. But for now, thank you so much
34:33
for sharing that. And lastly, and I do that with
34:36
every of my guests, we briefly have some in between moments.
34:40
These are short and intuitive reflections that I would love
34:44
for you to just answer in a word or a sentence from the top of
34:47
your mind. And I would want to start with a
34:49
statement. According to you, a future we
34:52
underestimate is. Set the power of AI to push.
34:55
Science and a risk that we misread.
34:58
Also linked to the scenarios that we are stumbling silently
35:02
into an autocracy so that the way that we might be manipulated
35:09
by agents and AI to live in a better way.
35:12
I need to do just a whole episode on that word, but thank
35:15
you for bringing that to the table.
35:18
And then thirdly, trust in 2023 fields like what according to
35:23
you? Renewable resource.
35:25
Very powerful, but it requires a constant cultivation.
35:30
And a word that you currently are in between.
35:32
Oh. Yeah, I'm talking a lot about
35:34
digital aura. In the future, if you have the
35:37
devices connected on your body, smart clothes, your smart watch,
35:41
your smart glasses, etcetera, then you have somehow a digital
35:45
aura. And if you connect to others,
35:47
then the agents behind are connecting and doing things.
35:51
Yeah. So this is this is something I'm
35:54
really into at the moment. Such great jump of pints.
35:57
Thank you so much for sharing those with you with us Haiku.
36:00
And thank you for joining the podcast episode.
36:02
I really appreciate it. Yeah.
36:04
Thank you very much. If much fun, much appreciate.