Latest / Simply Bitcoin / GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN OVER | New Bitcoin All-Time High Incoming?! | Simply Originals

Transcript

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN OVER | New Bitcoin All-Time High Incoming?! | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Breaking news, the US government shutdown is over and guess what?
• 0:05
  Nothing changed. Federal workers get a paycheck
• 0:08
  again, politicians bet themselves on the back, and
• 0:11
  meanwhile they spent 619 billion while the government was closed.
• 0:17
  How do you spend more money when you're shut down?
• 0:20
  Well, if this is what off looks like, maybe we should never turn
• 0:23
  the machine back on. But hey, historically, every
• 0:26
  time this circus ends, Bitcoin hits a new all time high.
• 0:30
  Strap in because today we got a full 5 course meal of macro
• 0:34
  madness, Bitcoin bullishness, and straight up American clown
• 0:39
  show. Yeah, like I said, strap the
• 0:41
  hell in because it's time to. So with all of that, I just want
• 0:50
  to tell you the country has never been in better shape.
• 0:53
  We went through this short term disaster with the Democrats
• 0:57
  because they thought it would be good politically.
• 1:00
  And it's an honor now to sign this incredible bill and get our
• 1:05
  country working again. Thank you.
• 1:40
  All right, let's start with the insanity.
• 1:43
  Shutdown ends after 43 days, the longest in U.S. history.
• 1:47
  During this time they borrowed 619 billion, burned 14.4 billion
• 1:53
  per day, increased the national debt to 38.126 trillion, and in
• 1:59
  Bitcoin terms, the US debt grew by 18.5 million BTC.
• 2:04
  Let me repeat that. While the government was shut
• 2:07
  down, they basically printed an entire Bitcoin market cap while
• 2:11
  the government was closed. This is not a government.
• 2:14
  This is a flaming debt pinata filled with IOU's, and
• 2:18
  everyone's swinging at it blindfolded.
• 2:20
  Oh, and, uh, Speaking of flying blind, remember those important
• 2:24
  data releases? The stuff the Fed claims it uses
• 2:27
  to guide the entire global financial system?
• 2:31
  Yeah, well, allegedly the Democrats damaged the federal
• 2:35
  statistical system. We're not getting CPI.
• 2:38
  We're not getting jobs numbers. Shutdown could end up decreasing
• 2:43
  fourth quarter economic growth by two whole percentage points.
• 2:48
  The Democrat shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for
• 2:51
  economic economists, investors, and policymakers at the Federal
• 2:56
  Reserve to receive critical government data.
• 2:59
  The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal
• 3:02
  statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely
• 3:05
  never being released. And all of that economic data
• 3:09
  released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policy
• 3:12
  makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.
• 3:16
  And the White House literally said with a straight face, the
• 3:19
  October jobs report will be released without an unemployment
• 3:23
  rate. What does that even mean?
• 3:24
  That's like releasing a weather report with no temperature.
• 3:29
  It's weathering outside. Could be cold, could be hot,
• 3:33
  could be a apocalypse, who knows. the Fed is now officially
• 3:37
  flying blind. Perfect time to print the
• 3:40
  world's reserve currency to oblivion if you ask me.
• 3:43
  And it looks like they are, because this is the new American
• 3:46
  economy. 15 year car loans, 50 year mortgages, $2000 stimmies.
• 3:51
  Treasury buying back its own debt, 129 global rate cuts, the
• 3:56
  fastest since 2020. We are stimulating into a
• 4:00
  bubble. They are literally pouring
• 4:01
  gasoline onto a burning building and calling it inflation
• 4:06
  reduction. I hope you can smell the money
• 4:08
  burner because Besant just dropped the bomb and he
• 4:11
  confirmed 2 new stimulus programs are incoming that
• 4:14
  that's. The most?
• 4:15
  Financial financially responsible thing to do.
• 4:17
  Well, there are a lot of options here that the president's
• 4:21
  talking about it a $2000 rebate and those that would be for
• 4:25
  families making less than, say 100 have.
• 4:30
  You decided. On that yet?
• 4:31
  We haven't, we haven't. It's in discussion.
• 4:35
  But the other thing to think about, Brian, is that what we
• 4:39
  did with the tax bill is actually financing the
• 4:43
  president's no tax and tips over time.
• 4:46
  So security and the big refunds you're going to see are a result
• 4:50
  of that. So that's another payment to the
• 4:52
  American people. And then the other thing you're
• 4:54
  going to see on the in the middle of the year are these
• 4:59
  Trump accounts. Every child born retroactively
• 5:04
  to January 1, but for the next three years is going to get
• 5:08
  $1000 account that's going to be invested in the US stock market.
• 5:13
  So that's another $1000 for working families.
• 5:16
  So yes, let's start with the first one, $2000 rebates, cash
• 5:20
  in hand for anyone under 100K, which means liquidity boost,
• 5:24
  risk, assets pump and Bitcoin follows.
• 5:27
  Then the second one, Trump baby accounts, babies born from 2025
• 5:31
  to 2028 get $1000 automatically invested into U.S. stocks.
• 5:36
  We are literally turning newborns into forced equity
• 5:40
  investors. The maternity ward is now Wall
• 5:42
  Street. That's fiscal easing.
• 5:44
  That's liquidity. And liquidity always finds
• 5:48
  Bitcoin. All the YouTube TA guys doing
• 5:51
  their witchcraft screaming the top is in bear market starts
• 5:54
  now. Meanwhile, rational route just
• 5:57
  dropped a nuke. The Bitcoin, the bull cycle
• 5:59
  historically follows the global business cycle.
• 6:02
  And guess what? The business cycle hasn't even
• 6:05
  started yet. Meaning the real bull run, the
• 6:09
  face melting, life changing neighbor asking you how to buy
• 6:12
  Bitcoin phase hasn't even begun. Bitcoin obviously came forward
• 6:17
  out of the, the 2008 financial crisis and you know, since then
• 6:21
  we've kind of had this, this four year cycle period in that
• 6:25
  PMI metric, but currently we're actually not respecting that
• 6:30
  four year period. And so, so we, we've moved up a
• 6:32
  lot slower in terms of like the, the business cycle.
• 6:35
  And so is Bitcoin, you know, and so is the stock market.
• 6:39
  And so macro analyst and, and here I'm actually referring to
• 6:43
  Raul Powell, which I'm, I'm not a fan of him because he, he did
• 6:47
  a lot of shit going in, in the beginning.
• 6:48
  No, like a bit unethical behavior he showed, but he has
• 6:51
  actually quite a good reasoning, which I think like the with
• 6:57
  regards to Bitcoin being part of the business cycle.
• 7:00
  I, I agree, I've always agreed on this.
• 7:02
  So the halvings were always a contribution.
• 7:05
  There's many factors, but the business cycle and and global
• 7:08
  liquidity in general, which Bitcoin has like a rough
• 7:10
  correlation to which is actually not respecting currently because
• 7:13
  global liquidity is moving up, but the Bitcoin is actually
• 7:15
  moving down. So we're having this bit of like
• 7:17
  an A moment within Bitcoin itself, but the, the ISM like so
• 7:23
  the business cycle is actually not reached high levels yet.
• 7:26
  We're not even above 50. So, so the macro analysts in
• 7:32
  general, they still expect this to start moving up to those
• 7:36
  higher levels. And so that would mean actually
• 7:38
  also more favorable conditions for Bitcoin, which could mean
• 7:41
  like a continuation of the bull market.
• 7:42
  So, so all this to, to get to like so, so Bitcoin came forward
• 7:46
  out of the 2008 financial crisis.
• 7:48
  We, we kind of naturally went into that four year cycle, which
• 7:52
  was the business cycle as well. And, but, but if we look
• 7:56
  further, for example, if we look at the the.com crash to the 2008
• 8:00
  mark, we had actually an 8 year cycle, you know, and so it looks
• 8:05
  now also the cycle structure is chaining.
• 8:07
  It is so, so we just had like 4-4 year cycles in, in, in the
• 8:10
  business cycle. But now with the business cycle
• 8:13
  we're also lengthening, at least that's what it, what it, what it
• 8:16
  starts to look like. And so it's very likely that
• 8:18
  Bitcoin might, you know, move with this.
• 8:21
  And so therefore, I think there's a, a big increase in, in
• 8:24
  probability that Bitcoin will still continue it's bull market
• 8:27
  further than the road, even though we have a correction now,
• 8:30
  you know, this healthy distribution or IPO phase that
• 8:33
  without we're in call it an IPO phase.
• 8:36
  I I still think there's like more continuation of that bull
• 8:39
  market and we probably continue a bit of like that gradual
• 8:43
  channel. All of obviously we now broke
• 8:46
  that three-year structure, which I just showed.
• 8:48
  So maybe we'll move into like an even slower structure, you know,
• 8:53
  a new channel. But, but looking at the macro
• 8:57
  like unless we got like a recession like in the next weeks
• 9:00
  or months, you know, it looks more likely that the cycle will
• 9:04
  extend. And so I think the impact of
• 9:06
  macro is actually more important, especially since
• 9:08
  institutions came in and and so. So that is something to to keep
• 9:13
  in mind. Let's rapid fire some bullish
• 9:16
  news, shall we? Bitcoin ETFs pulled in 524
• 9:19
  million in one day, largest inflow since the crash.
• 9:23
  BlackRock, Fidelity arc, they're all loading up.
• 9:26
  JP Morgan increased its ibit holdings by 68%.
• 9:31
  Yeah, Jamie Dimon, the tapeworm, the guy that once called Bitcoin
• 9:34
  a fraud. Now they're holding 343 million
• 9:36
  of it. Russia officially calls Bitcoin
• 9:39
  a top yielding investment. Taiwan is debating a Bitcoin
• 9:43
  strategic reserve and this is crazy.
• 9:46
  Boom. The Czech National Bank just
• 9:48
  bought Bitcoin. This could be a historic first
• 9:51
  for any central bank and likely more central banks will follow.
• 9:56
  Bitcoin is becoming global monetary infrastructure and
• 9:59
  that's not something you trade, that's something you secure.
• 10:03
  We get a lot more bullishness coming your way.
• 10:04
  What does history say about Bitcoin following a government
• 10:08
  shutdown? And if Jay Powell is going to
• 10:10
  print so much money it makes our eyes bleed?
• 10:12
  Well, we'll see what Jack Molars thinks is coming next.
• 10:15
  But before we do, look at our likes. 3-4 times maybe?
• 10:19
  I'll pump those numbers up. Those are rookie.
• 10:21
  Numbers in this. Racket let's take a quick second
• 10:23
  for our sponsors who keep this show on the air over at the
• 10:26
  Bitcoin way. If your wealth lives in their
• 10:28
  system, it's not yours, it's theirs.
• 10:30
  That's why we scream Bitcoin. That's why you self custody and
• 10:34
  that's why you call our friends over at the Bitcoin Way.
• 10:36
  They'll walk you through multi sig, self custody, privacy, how
• 10:39
  to run a node, and the tools that keep you sovereign when the
• 10:41
  Fiat system pulls the plug. Don't wait till it's too late.
• 10:44
  Book a free 30 minute console today using that link in the
• 10:47
  show notes. Need cash but don't want to sell
• 10:50
  your Bitcoin? Leaden is the global leader in
• 10:52
  Bitcoin back loans, issuing over 9 billion in loans since 2018
• 10:57
  and they were the first to offer proof of reserves.
• 10:59
  With Leaden, you get custody, loans, no credit checks, no
• 11:02
  monthly payments and more. Visit learn dot leaden dot IO
• 11:06
  slash simply to learn more and get 25 basis points off your
• 11:10
  first loan. In 2018 and 2019, following a
• 11:13
  government shutdown, Bitcoin pumped 96% and 157%.
• 11:19
  And right now we're over 100K and we just survived the largest
• 11:23
  liquidation event ever, the longest shutdown ever, OG
• 11:27
  capitulation, Bitcoin Twitter panic, ETF outflows, and still
• 11:33
  Bitcoin held the 50 week moving average.
• 11:36
  And every time this cycle that we bounced off this line,
• 11:39
  Bitcoin rallied $40,000 plus in the following months, every
• 11:43
  single time. Global M2 global liquidity is
• 11:47
  exploding, breaking all time highs and Bitcoin is 80 days
• 11:51
  behind the liquidity curve. Historically when M2 spikes 2013
• 11:57
  Bitcoin did like 100 X 2017 Bitcoin 20 XD and in 2020
• 12:01
  Bitcoin. Forexed Bitcoin is a monetary
• 12:04
  pressure valve on global liquidity and liquidity is
• 12:08
  screaming the Fed has no choice. Liquidity stresses everywhere.
• 12:12
  The private market can't provide liquidity anymore.
• 12:15
  It's all on the Fed SLO. Our rules killed the repo
• 12:19
  market, Volcker rule killed prop trading and money market reforms
• 12:23
  killed private lending and pal straight up said in 2021 and a
• 12:27
  stress scenario today the Federal Reserve is the only
• 12:31
  entity with a balance sheet to absorb the shock translation.
• 12:35
  If anything breaks even just a little Kiwi is back.
• 12:39
  And as Jack Mahler said, if they're printing bitcoins going
• 12:43
  higher, send. It the US government has no
• 12:46
  choice. Guys, I know Bitcoin for your
• 12:52
  cycles. I know all the chart Bros on
• 12:54
  Twitter say that technically in October 17th at 472 the bull
• 12:59
  market ended because the stars aligned.
• 13:01
  Guess what I don't give a I'm looking at the chess board and
• 13:05
  I'm seeing there's only one move my opponent can make.
• 13:08
  They have to print money. They don't have a choice. 2026
• 13:14
  has to structurally be a massive year.
• 13:17
  There's no more reserves in the banking system.
• 13:19
  There's no more reserves in the banking system because all of
• 13:22
  them are going to financing the US government.
• 13:25
  This system fails on its face if you do not keep printing money.
• 13:31
  President Trump's reviving talks of.
• 13:34
  Stimulus checks. So the US government is getting
• 13:36
  back to what it does best, and that's printing money.
• 13:39
  That's what they do best. That's why they're all elected,
• 13:42
  is to hand out, quote UN quote, free to the people.
• 13:45
  I'm supposed to be bearish. You guys got the wrong guy.
• 13:49
  Shutdown is over, liquidity is back, stimulus is coming, global
• 13:53
  central banks are cutting, ETFs are buying, central banks are
• 13:56
  buying, Bitcoin is holding the line, and liquidity is screaming
• 14:00
  for a new all time high. So yes, government shutdown over
• 14:04
  new Bitcoin all time high incoming hell yeah, stacks at
• 14:10
  stay humble and for the love of God, get your Bitcoin off of
• 14:13
  exchanges. The next run is going to be
• 14:15
  historic. Let us know what you think
• 14:17
  below, and I hope you guys like this one.
• 14:19
  Don't forget to like subscribe and give us a pan by sharing the
• 14:22
  sound money gospel with some poor soul saving and Fiat and
• 14:25
  set those notifications. Dante, Sophie, oceans.
• 14:28
  They all get great stuff coming your way.
• 14:30
  So stay tuned and I'll get you all next time.
• 14:32
  Let me get as.