Latest / Pod Save America / Trump Closes With Small Fries and Big D*cks
Transcript
- 0:20Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:21Speaker 2: I'm Jon Lovett.
- 0:23Speaker 3: I'm Tommy Vitor.
- 0:23Speaker 1: Wow. Okay. On today's show. An exhausted Donald Trump is
- 0:27Speaker 1: talking dicks and flipping burgers as both campaigns race to
- 0:31Speaker 1: get those last remaining undecided voters off the fence.
- 0:34Speaker 2: I'd much rather be talking burgers and flipping dicks.
- 0:39Speaker 1: Oh, you high-fived on that?
- 0:40Speaker 2: I didn't even know that was coming.
- 0:42Speaker 1: I like to surprise you guys. Kamala Harris continues her
- 0:47Speaker 1: sprint through the battlegrounds with help from Barack Obama, Liz Cheney,
- 0:50Speaker 1: and many others, while the world's richest man launches a
- 0:53Speaker 1: legally questionable million-dollar sweepstakes to help Trump. And later, friend
- 0:57Speaker 1: of the pod Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz talks to Lovett
- 1:00Speaker 1: about how the race is looking and the most important
- 1:01Speaker 1: things everyone can do to help. But first, Donald Trump
- 1:06Speaker 1: may very well win this race, but with two weeks
- 1:09Speaker 1: to go, he seems to be losing steam and his mind.
- 1:12Speaker 1: A Trump advisor reportedly told an outlet that their 78-year-old
- 1:15Speaker 1: candidate has been canceling interviews because he's, quote, exhausted. A
- 1:20Speaker 1: recent Associated Press headline reads, quote, A failed mic leaves
- 1:24Speaker 1: Donald Trump pacing the stage in silence for nearly 20
- 1:26Speaker 1: minutes in Detroit. This was after he stopped taking questions
- 1:30Speaker 1: at a Pennsylvania town hall so he could rock out
- 1:33Speaker 1: to Ave Maria and YMCA for a good half hour
- 1:35Speaker 1: or so. And whenever Trump does speak, his rhetoric lurches
- 1:38Speaker 1: from deranged to absurd. Here he is with Fox News'
- 1:43Speaker 1: Howie Kurtz over the weekend.
- 1:45Speaker 4: The other day you called it a day of love.
- 1:47Speaker 3: That sparked a lot of reaction.
- 1:49Speaker 4: Can you understand why many Americans would view it as
- 1:52Speaker 4: a dark and tragic.
- 1:53Speaker 5: Day in our history?
- 1:54Speaker 6: The crowd I spoke before, which you rarely see, I
- 1:58Speaker 6: have pictures of it, they're massive, but nobody wants to
- 2:00Speaker 6: put them in, was the biggest crowd I've ever spoken to,
- 2:03Speaker 6: and I've spoken.
- 2:04Speaker 7: To the biggest crowds. I've never seen that many people.
- 2:06Speaker 1: I tell you, there was a beauty to it and
- 2:10Speaker 1: there was a love to it that I've never seen before.
- 2:13Speaker 2: The enemy within is a pretty ominous phrase if you're
- 2:16Speaker 2: talking about other Americans.
- 2:17Speaker 3: I think it's accurate.
- 2:18Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's accurate.
- 2:19Speaker 2: After our interview, Donald Trump flew to Pennsylvania Arnold Palmer's hotel,
- 2:24Speaker 2: where he discussed the golfer's side of his manhood.
- 2:27Speaker 7: This is a guy that was all man.
- 2:30Speaker 1: His man was strong and tough.
- 2:34Speaker 8: And I refuse to say it, but when he took
- 2:38Speaker 8: showers with the other pros, they came out of there,
- 2:40Speaker 8: they said, oh, my God.
- 2:45Speaker 4: That's unbelievable.
- 2:47Speaker 1: I had to say it. He had to say it. Uh,
- 2:51Speaker 1: why do you guys think he felt the need to
- 2:53Speaker 1: tell the crowd that the late Arnold Palmer was hung
- 2:56Speaker 1: like a one wood?
- 2:59Speaker 9: Hmm.
- 3:00Speaker 1: There's a lot to talk about in that whole package.
- 3:03Speaker 1: There you go.
- 3:04Speaker 3: First of all, why did Howie Kurtz have a four-packs-a-day
- 3:07Speaker 3: voice in the interview, and then he sounded normal after?
- 3:09Speaker 2: What was going on there? This is neither here nor there,
- 3:12Speaker 2: but also, Howie Kurtz, he looked like he was from
- 3:16Speaker 2: the 70s. Not in a good or bad way, but
- 3:19Speaker 2: his haircut looked like he was reporting on the oil
- 3:22Speaker 2: embargo during the Carter era. It was a deeply weird... Interview.
- 3:27Speaker 2: Do you shower together after you golf?
- 3:29Speaker 1: This was one of my first questions. Like, I'm not
- 3:31Speaker 1: a golfer, but it doesn't seem like a shower afterwards
- 3:34Speaker 1: type of sport.
- 3:35Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 3:35Speaker 3: Ben Dreyfuss did some original reporting on this.
- 3:38Speaker 2: Did you guys see this?
- 3:39Speaker 1: Tommy, I was going to bring it up, and then
- 3:40Speaker 1: I was like, I don't know how to explain Ben's
- 3:43Speaker 1: reporting in a way that is appropriate even for this podcast.
- 3:45Speaker 1: I just think it's cool that of.
- 3:47Speaker 2: The three of us, I'm not the one that went
- 3:49Speaker 2: deeper into whether or not Arnold Palmer had a giant
- 3:52Speaker 2: dick deep down the dong.
- 3:53Speaker 1: It's a weird story. Ben Dreyfuss did. Ben Dreyfuss did.
- 3:55Speaker 9: And?
- 3:56Speaker 1: There's a lot of circumstantial evidence that he does not
- 4:00Speaker 1: necessarily have a big dick. Had.
- 4:02Speaker 2: Circum.
- 4:03Speaker 3: Sorry.
- 4:04Speaker 1: Rest in peace.
- 4:05Speaker 2: Yeah, he's dead.
- 4:06Speaker 1: He's dead.
- 4:07Speaker 2: He's dead.
- 4:08Speaker 1: He died in 2016. Yeah.
- 4:09Speaker 2: They had to push that lid down on the coffin
- 4:11Speaker 2: pretty hard.
- 4:13Speaker 7: Holy shit.
- 4:18Speaker 3: This is what this campaign has done to us. There's
- 4:20Speaker 3: nothing left to talk about except for this dead golfer's junk.
- 4:23Speaker 1: This is the point, too.
- 4:24Speaker 5: Like.
- 4:25Speaker 1: We're skipping over how in the interview he was like, oh, yeah,
- 4:28Speaker 1: I do think that the violent attack on the Capitol
- 4:31Speaker 1: was a day of love. And I do think the
- 4:34Speaker 1: Democrats are the enemy within, which, again, we predicted this
- 4:37Speaker 1: would happen. I think this was like right after Mike Johnson,
- 4:42Speaker 1: speaking of Johnsons, went on Meet the Press or somewhere
- 4:45Speaker 1: and was asked about this. And he's like, oh, that's
- 4:46Speaker 1: not what he meant. That's not what he meant. And
- 4:48Speaker 1: sure enough, Donald Trump's like, this is exactly what I meant.
- 4:51Speaker 3: Punish Adam Schiff.
- 4:52Speaker 1: That's what I meant. Whatever Glenn Youngkin said, whatever Mike
- 4:54Speaker 1: Johnson said, whatever anyone else is saying to try to
- 4:56Speaker 1: defend me, this is exactly what I mean.
- 4:59Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sort of, it's, if Trump were on a
- 5:03Speaker 2: unicycle saying I'm going to imprison my enemies, it's still dangerous,
- 5:07Speaker 2: even though it's pretty funny that he's on a unicycle.
- 5:09Speaker 1: Yeah, a deranged clown can be funny, but like, you know,
- 5:12Speaker 1: you give him the nukes, not so funny.
- 5:14Speaker 2: No.
- 5:14Speaker 1: In general, how do you guys think the let Trump
- 5:17Speaker 1: be Trump strategy is playing out in the final weeks here?
- 5:20Speaker 1: Net positive, net negative?
- 5:21Speaker 3: I think on balance, it's a net negative. Like, it's
- 5:26Speaker 3: hard to argue that if you were just, you know,
- 5:28Speaker 3: had like a disciplined message about the economy for the
- 5:32Speaker 3: remainder of campaign, that that would.
- 5:34Speaker 2: Probably help him.
- 5:35Speaker 3: Calling January 6th a day of love absolutely unequivocally hurts
- 5:39Speaker 3: him and repeating it on how it hurts him. I
- 5:41Speaker 3: think the Arnold Palmer stuff, like, look, there's a lot
- 5:43Speaker 3: of young men in particular hear this and just think
- 5:45Speaker 3: it's funny. They think it's Trump is authentic.
- 5:47Speaker 1: He's goofy.
- 5:48Speaker 3: He doesn't care about being politically correct or saying the
- 5:51Speaker 3: right thing. Like, the head-spinning part about this is always
- 5:53Speaker 3: that he wins evangelical voters, like, 95 to 1, and
- 5:57Speaker 3: you would think that the kind of Mike Pence's of
- 5:59Speaker 3: the world are the people who would find this offensive.
- 6:01Speaker 1: In some way.
- 6:01Speaker 3: Or, you know, the people get mad about, like, a
- 6:03Speaker 3: Disney character not being white every few years just to, like,
- 6:06Speaker 3: kind of brush this stuff off.
- 6:08Speaker 2: No, there's just... Look, there's a little bit of politics
- 6:10Speaker 2: in him talking about Arnold Palmer having a big dick,
- 6:13Speaker 2: which is, like, he was a real man. He was...
- 6:17Speaker 2: There used to be real men in this country. We
- 6:19Speaker 2: celebrate real masculine... men. And the other side doesn't.
- 6:23Speaker 1: With big dicks.
- 6:24Speaker 2: Big swinging dicks. Big golfing dicks.
- 6:28Speaker 1: Bunch of guys in the shower just, even I'm uncomfortable.
- 6:30Speaker 2: He doesn't even need clubs, this Arnold Palmer guy. He's
- 6:36Speaker 2: just out there with a putter, fucking buck ass naked, golfing.
- 6:40Speaker 1: Let me tell you about the only pole that matters.
- 6:47Speaker 2: I just think like, look, it doesn't matter how, look,
- 6:50Speaker 2: any great golfer will tell you, You can have a
- 6:54Speaker 2: heavier club. You can have a lighter club.
- 6:55Speaker 3: It's about touch.
- 6:56Speaker 2: It's about finesse.
- 6:57Speaker 1: I was waiting for Tommy to make the motion. I
- 6:59Speaker 1: beat him to it.
- 7:00Speaker 2: I beat him to it.
- 7:01Speaker 1: About a short game.
- 7:02Speaker 2: Hey.
- 7:03Speaker 1: Continue. What else were we going to talk about? Yeah,
- 7:05Speaker 1: I mean, look.
- 7:06Speaker 2: What else were we going to talk about, John?
- 7:07Speaker 1: I don't know. I think you can say in these
- 7:09Speaker 1: final weeks he is not driving much of a message himself.
- 7:11Speaker 1: We can separate him from the campaign, of course. His
- 7:14Speaker 1: campaign is running all kinds of ads. They are driving
- 7:16Speaker 1: a very specific message. He is not driving much of one.
- 7:19Speaker 1: There was also a time story. I don't know if
- 7:20Speaker 1: you guys saw this. last week about how he's just,
- 7:23Speaker 1: over the weekend, how he's just bored of the economy.
- 7:25Speaker 1: That's why he's making it all about immigration. Like when
- 7:27Speaker 1: he does drive a message, it's almost exclusively about immigration
- 7:30Speaker 1: because he thinks the crowd seems bored by it, which
- 7:33Speaker 1: I think is very revealing.
- 7:35Speaker 3: It's what the crowd likes and it's what he likes.
- 7:37Speaker 3: He's genuinely passionate about it.
- 7:39Speaker 2: I think like with Trump, the medium is the message.
- 7:41Speaker 2: I think when he's ranting and raving in front of
- 7:43Speaker 2: his biggest fans, I think his biggest fans like it
- 7:46Speaker 2: when it gets outside of that. I think it hurts him.
- 7:49Speaker 2: I think the kind of goofy, rambling, occasionally funny Trump
- 7:56Speaker 2: in a podcast setting. I think they think it's better
- 7:59Speaker 2: for him than sitting down for mainstream interviews. I don't
- 8:03Speaker 2: think it's as helpful as their campaign would want it
- 8:05Speaker 2: to be because he is so, he's just lost a step.
- 8:09Speaker 2: So even when he's doing his greatest hits, he's just
- 8:11Speaker 2: not bringing the same energy to it.
- 8:12Speaker 1: He doesn't have many more steps to lose at this point.
- 8:14Speaker 9: No.
- 8:15Speaker 1: He's almost out of steps.
- 8:16Speaker 2: Have you seen these clips of Frankie Valli? Frankie Valli
- 8:20Speaker 2: has a Vegas show, I believe. And basically, they kind
- 8:24Speaker 2: of wheel out 90-some-odd-year-old Frankie Valli, and he kind of
- 8:28Speaker 2: holds the mic up here, and then they just play
- 8:30Speaker 2: his greatest hits. And increasingly, that's what Trump is like.
- 8:33Speaker 2: They kind of get him out there, and he's like,
- 8:35Speaker 2: we used to be tough in this country. I think
- 8:37Speaker 2: the Jews might be responsible. And it's a little bit
- 8:40Speaker 2: like he's a random number generator, and just like some
- 8:42Speaker 2: part of the Trump large language model will kind of
- 8:45Speaker 2: spit something out.
- 8:46Speaker 1: There's a bit of... You'll be surprised to learn there's
- 8:48Speaker 1: a bit of hyperbole that like whenever Trump says something
- 8:51Speaker 1: crazy now, they try to like put everything in the
- 8:54Speaker 1: dementia frame, right? He's lost it. like the Arnold Palmer
- 8:57Speaker 1: thing is, I don't think it's not that, even though some,
- 8:59Speaker 1: some people were treating it like that.
- 9:00Speaker 2: He didn't tell it as well as he would have
- 9:02Speaker 2: five years ago. He would have been more charming and
- 9:04Speaker 2: funny about it a couple of years ago.
- 9:05Speaker 1: Right, right. But I do think when you combine the,
- 9:08Speaker 1: like the weird swaying to YMCA and Ave Maria at
- 9:12Speaker 1: that town hall with the 20 minutes of walking around
- 9:15Speaker 1: in silence while he's waiting for a mic. Also, no
- 9:16Speaker 1: one could get him a mic in 20 minutes. It's inexplicable.
- 9:19Speaker 1: That seems great. Inexplicable.
- 9:20Speaker 3: You don't have another mic.
- 9:21Speaker 1: And just like, The rallies, the rambling, the speeches are
- 9:24Speaker 1: going on for even longer than usual, and they've always
- 9:26Speaker 1: been really long. Again, if you watch a rally or
- 9:30Speaker 1: an interview with a MAGA-friendly outlet, which is the only
- 9:33Speaker 1: ones he does now, I think you will not be
- 9:35Speaker 1: impressed with Donald Trump. And you're right, the podcast ones,
- 9:38Speaker 1: maybe some people are impressed with that, some of the
- 9:40Speaker 1: podcast interviews, but I don't know.
- 9:41Speaker 3: The irony is he only does stuff in his safe space.
- 9:43Speaker 3: He's on like kind of podcasts with former wrestlers like
- 9:46Speaker 3: The Undertaker or kind of Barstool Sports type shows or
- 9:50Speaker 3: Fox kind of friendly audiences. But he does better when
- 9:54Speaker 3: he's pressed a little bit. When he did the thing
- 9:55Speaker 3: with John Micklethwaite, the editor of Bloomberg News, they got
- 9:58Speaker 3: into a back and forth and Trump was pissed he
- 10:00Speaker 3: was punching back and he got aggressive and it made
- 10:02Speaker 3: him a little more disciplined and also he was getting
- 10:04Speaker 3: cut off by micklethwaite so he couldn't go on he
- 10:06Speaker 3: couldn't do the weave for 35 minutes about some bizarre
- 10:09Speaker 3: story that ends with you know the the golden bear's
- 10:13Speaker 3: ass is kind of like the punchline it's like he
- 10:15Speaker 3: he gets forced to be a little more focused and
- 10:18Speaker 3: like And I think when he's on when he's just
- 10:21Speaker 3: like alone at a mic, he ends up in going
- 10:25Speaker 3: on these diatribes that hurt him.
- 10:26Speaker 1: Yeah. Two of Trump's comms people did an interview with
- 10:29Speaker 1: Semaphore where they said that the freewheeling Trump is a
- 10:33Speaker 1: strategic choice to counteract the Harris campaign's portrayal of him.
- 10:37Speaker 1: And basically they said that, you know, if voters see
- 10:40Speaker 1: Trump laughing and joking, I've never seen him laugh. They
- 10:44Speaker 1: know he can't possibly be a threat to democracy. Do
- 10:47Speaker 1: you agree with that general idea?
- 10:49Speaker 2: I agree that that's what they're trying to do. And
- 10:51Speaker 2: I think there's some validity to it. I do think
- 10:53Speaker 2: that if the only thing people saw was Trump laughing
- 10:56Speaker 2: it up at a McDonald's or having a funny moment
- 10:58Speaker 2: on a podcast with Theo Vaughn about Coke, and then
- 11:01Speaker 2: what they see on television is Liz Cheney being like,
- 11:03Speaker 2: he will end democracy. I think that that is their
- 11:06Speaker 2: fair pushback, but it's not enough. It doesn't counteract the
- 11:09Speaker 2: other many clips of him actually issuing the threats and
- 11:12Speaker 2: doing all of the rest.
- 11:14Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're kind of, we're trying to retrofit
- 11:17Speaker 3: reality into a strategy here. You know, I mean, I
- 11:20Speaker 3: think the thing that prevents people from thinking that he
- 11:22Speaker 3: is some scary authoritarian threat to democracy is his four
- 11:24Speaker 3: years in office and the fact that he's like the
- 11:26Speaker 3: best known celebrity on the planet. I'm sure these interviews
- 11:29Speaker 3: help him goofing around, being fun and talking about like,
- 11:32Speaker 3: you know, the guy who took over for Lou Gehrig.
- 11:35Speaker 3: That all helps Wally Pipp. But yeah, I mean, these
- 11:37Speaker 3: guys are trying to make it sound like they have
- 11:39Speaker 3: some sort of strategic genius here when it's just their
- 11:41Speaker 3: guy doing Trump jazz.
- 11:43Speaker 1: I thought What was most revealing about that is that
- 11:45Speaker 1: they are concerned that he appears as a threat to democracy.
- 11:49Speaker 1: And they know that that is not that is not
- 11:52Speaker 1: politically helpful to him. And so that they are trying
- 11:54Speaker 1: this in the first place. Agree with you guys that
- 11:56Speaker 1: they're not quite succeeding.
- 11:57Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I just think that like there are two
- 12:00Speaker 2: campaigns running like Donald Trump is is a is not strategic,
- 12:04Speaker 2: but he has smart people around him. Everything they do
- 12:06Speaker 2: isn't going to be stupid. Trump is going to get
- 12:08Speaker 2: wins on the board. He's going to have effective moments.
- 12:10Speaker 2: He's going to have charming moments. I think to Tommy's point, yeah,
- 12:13Speaker 2: they're trying to turn the fact that they can't really
- 12:16Speaker 2: figure out what to do with him at a rally
- 12:17Speaker 2: to stop him from going off script for an hour
- 12:20Speaker 2: and a half. They're trying to turn that into an advantage.
- 12:22Speaker 2: But reading that interview, I was like, well, this is
- 12:25Speaker 2: pretty smart. Now, you then remember, wait, the person they're
- 12:28Speaker 2: describing is Donald Trump. No, he's not having this incredibly
- 12:31Speaker 2: successful interview on these platforms. He's not delivering what they're
- 12:34Speaker 2: claiming he's delivering. But there's a part of that interview
- 12:37Speaker 2: where they talk about why they prefer going to comedians
- 12:40Speaker 2: and others than going to national media that a member
- 12:44Speaker 2: of the Kamala Harris campaign could absolutely say that like
- 12:47Speaker 2: less charged and toxic conversations. And I'm like, well, that's smart.
- 12:50Speaker 3: That's right.
- 12:50Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 12:51Speaker 3: They're just describing like the reality of the current media landscape.
- 12:53Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 12:54Speaker 1: Trump event that got the most attention this weekend was
- 12:57Speaker 1: the big visit to McDonald's in Pennsylvania. Basically the Trump
- 13:00Speaker 1: campaign shut down a McDonald's temporarily, then picked some people
- 13:04Speaker 1: to go through the drive-through so Trump could serve them
- 13:07Speaker 1: fries and repeat the Weird lie he keeps telling that
- 13:11Speaker 1: Kamala Harris never worked at McDonald's. Just no basis in
- 13:14Speaker 1: that at all. Obviously, this drove everyone a little crazy.
- 13:17Speaker 1: The one CBS reporter did ask Trump a substantive question
- 13:20Speaker 1: about the minimum wage. Let's listen. So take that as
- 13:40Speaker 1: a no. Maybe. Yes. This whole stunt photo op event,
- 13:45Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, generated quite a bit
- 13:47Speaker 1: of attention and blowback. What'd you guys think? You got
- 13:51Speaker 1: McDonald's this morning.
- 13:52Speaker 2: I did get McDonald's this morning. I was so angry.
- 13:56Speaker 1: I was so mad. Advertising works. Branding works.
- 14:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it definitely made me want McDonald's more.
- 14:02Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think I think Donald Trump putting
- 14:04Speaker 2: on and taking off an apron for the first time
- 14:06Speaker 2: in his life at a closed McDonald's while he pretends
- 14:08Speaker 2: to serve food to super fans recruited, I suppose, by
- 14:12Speaker 2: either the campaign or the MAGA owner of this franchise. Like,
- 14:16Speaker 2: it's a good picture. I think it's a good picture
- 14:18Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. But I think we have to like
- 14:22Speaker 2: it's so hard to get out of the like he's
- 14:24Speaker 2: in a like all the kind of like joking and
- 14:27Speaker 2: making it about the picture of And not about the
- 14:29Speaker 2: fact that like, of course, he doesn't support raising the
- 14:33Speaker 2: minimum wage. Like Donald Trump would be a disaster for
- 14:36Speaker 2: people who work at McDonald's. It is a sick fucking
- 14:38Speaker 2: joke that he's putting on this apron.
- 14:40Speaker 1: Last time he was president, he tried to take away
- 14:43Speaker 1: health care of millions of people. Many of them probably
- 14:45Speaker 1: work to McDonald's.
- 14:45Speaker 2: He's opposed to their ability to unionize. He will take
- 14:48Speaker 2: away their basic health care protections.
- 14:50Speaker 1: Doesn't want to pay overtime.
- 14:51Speaker 2: He will cut taxes for billionaires and corporations and make
- 14:55Speaker 2: a national sales tax that regular people will have to
- 14:58Speaker 2: pay to cover the difference. Like it's just, it's the whole,
- 15:01Speaker 2: the idea that he is this candidate of the working
- 15:03Speaker 2: man because he's put on a fucking apron. Like, I
- 15:07Speaker 2: think it's a good picture for him, but it's like
- 15:09Speaker 2: our job to kind of not fall into the trap
- 15:11Speaker 2: of debating and being at the McDonald's and like getting
- 15:13Speaker 2: back to this, like make the picture a fucking, a joke.
- 15:15Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 15:16Speaker 3: It was a really smart event. I mean, it's really,
- 15:18Speaker 3: really smarter than it do. I don't know why he's
- 15:20Speaker 3: obsessed with saying Kamala didn't work at, at McDonald's. Um, it,
- 15:24Speaker 3: I guess he just lets her call her inauthentic or something, but, uh, yeah,
- 15:28Speaker 3: he got to raise that there. He, I mean, like
- 15:31Speaker 3: it seemed fun and funny, normal, the whole event. I mean,
- 15:35Speaker 3: I watched the whole thing. It was like 25, 26
- 15:37Speaker 3: minutes of him learning to use the fry machine, doing
- 15:40Speaker 3: it in a suit and tie, which looks ridiculous, but
- 15:42Speaker 3: I don't know. Like he, he's authentically a fan of McDonald's.
- 15:45Speaker 3: He eats it. He served it to athletes who won
- 15:47Speaker 3: national championships. It was obviously a campaign stunt. It was not,
- 15:50Speaker 3: he didn't really work the fryer. Like he dunked it once.
- 15:55Speaker 3: In 07, remember Obama did the SEIU Walk a Day
- 15:58Speaker 3: in Their Shoes event? That woman, Pauline Beck, where he
- 16:00Speaker 3: got up at the crack of dawn and went with her.
- 16:04Speaker 3: They made breakfast for this man. She was a home
- 16:07Speaker 3: healthcare worker. She made breakfast for the man. He swept up.
- 16:10Speaker 3: It was an actual day of work with the SEIU.
- 16:13Speaker 3: That was different. This was just a 25-minute stunt, but
- 16:18Speaker 3: it went super viral on social media. We're all talking
- 16:21Speaker 3: about it. I think it was very smart.
- 16:22Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's... I think it's like a net neutral.
- 16:25Speaker 1: I think there's like a ton of people making fun
- 16:27Speaker 1: of it. A ton of people saying it's the best
- 16:29Speaker 1: thing ever. I can't imagine it's moving many people. I think,
- 16:33Speaker 1: but look, there are... bunch of people who maybe don't
- 16:38Speaker 1: read about it but just see the picture and might
- 16:40Speaker 1: be like oh cool like.
- 16:41Speaker 3: A vast majority of people people vast majority people will
- 16:44Speaker 3: see a clip on their tiktok or social media or
- 16:45Speaker 3: something and be like oh there's donald trump that's kind
- 16:48Speaker 3: of fun and different.
- 16:49Speaker 1: Well it broke it broke through to like you know
- 16:51Speaker 1: people in my life that don't pay attention much to
- 16:52Speaker 1: politics and i i got some text people just like
- 16:54Speaker 1: what the fuck is this it wasn't like cool it
- 16:56Speaker 1: was like what the fuck is.
- 16:56Speaker 2: This yeah i i just think that like the the
- 17:00Speaker 2: the trump people liking it i just think it's a
- 17:01Speaker 2: great picture It's a great picture. And then people making
- 17:04Speaker 2: fun of it because like, Oh, he's like the, it's
- 17:06Speaker 2: like the worst undercover boss. Like all those kinds of jokes.
- 17:09Speaker 2: I just, I like, I do think you have to
- 17:10Speaker 2: kind of get to like, this is somebody pretending to
- 17:14Speaker 2: care about working class people.
- 17:15Speaker 1: Right.
- 17:16Speaker 2: And he will not. And like, it has to just
- 17:18Speaker 2: be very like, not jokey.
- 17:19Speaker 1: I think the responses that, that drove me, uh, most
- 17:22Speaker 1: insane are, uh, this is just like Dukakis in a tank.
- 17:26Speaker 1: It's like, no, it's not. Oh, that was one of
- 17:28Speaker 1: the popular liberal responses on Twitter. Those people are stupid.
- 17:32Speaker 1: Another one was, oh, by the way, I did some
- 17:35Speaker 1: investigative reporting and that McDonald's got fined for health violations.
- 17:38Speaker 1: That I thought was kind of funny. I'm sorry.
- 17:41Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
- 17:42Speaker 2: But McDonald's serves millions of people every day. Nobody gets
- 17:47Speaker 2: fucking sick. It's amazing.
- 17:48Speaker 1: Nobody gets sick?
- 17:49Speaker 2: It's amazing.
- 17:49Speaker 1: Nobody?
- 17:50Speaker 2: Very rarely. Very, very rarely.
- 17:52Speaker 1: Obviously, the Kamala Harris campaign would do this, but they
- 17:54Speaker 1: were showing some of the responses on TikTok, which I
- 17:56Speaker 1: do think were very funny. It's just some young kids
- 18:00Speaker 1: being like, hey, grandpa, just put the fries in the
- 18:02Speaker 1: fucking bag. Well, the best part of it.
- 18:05Speaker 3: Is he was obsessed with the fact that you didn't
- 18:06Speaker 3: actually have to touch the fries to get them from
- 18:08Speaker 3: the fryer to the container before the packaging to the packaging.
- 18:11Speaker 3: I was like, what did you think happened at a restaurant?
- 18:13Speaker 3: Do you think people were hand scooping your fries into
- 18:16Speaker 3: the little basket.
- 18:17Speaker 1: Well, he was doing a very Trump thing, which was
- 18:19Speaker 1: just like talking a lot about how this and that.
- 18:21Speaker 1: The other thing, when like the people are just sitting
- 18:22Speaker 1: there like waiting, the people who've been hand selected by
- 18:25Speaker 1: the campaign are just waiting there for their fries in
- 18:27Speaker 1: their bag so they can drive off set.
- 18:29Speaker 3: But then he did a little press conference from the
- 18:31Speaker 3: takeout window. So he was taking questions from the press.
- 18:33Speaker 3: That window was so good.
- 18:35Speaker 2: It was good.
- 18:35Speaker 1: It was good. It was good.
- 18:37Speaker 2: It looked like, yeah, it kind of reminded me of
- 18:39Speaker 2: when John Amos was in, coming to America and running
- 18:42Speaker 2: the McDowell's.
- 18:43Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, if he, uh, If he wins,
- 18:45Speaker 1: the picture of him smiling and handing out fries is
- 18:48Speaker 1: going to be the picture. If he loses, the picture
- 18:50Speaker 1: of him sitting behind the window like this, which is
- 18:53Speaker 1: another one, that will be the picture.
- 18:54Speaker 3: So it really just will be him at like MSG
- 18:56Speaker 3: or him in Coachella being like, why are you in California.
- 18:59Speaker 1: New York for an election? Here's one response to the
- 19:01Speaker 1: whole McDonald's thing from a Democrat that I did find compelling.
- 19:05Speaker 10: You've got Donald Trump putting on a little McDonald's costume
- 19:11Speaker 10: because he thinks that's what people do.
- 19:15Speaker 7: They're not trying to empathize with us.
- 19:18Speaker 10: They are making fun of us. They are making fun
- 19:23Speaker 10: of us. Donald Trump thinks that people who work at
- 19:26Speaker 10: McDonald's are a joke. Elon Musk thinks that dangling money
- 19:30Speaker 10: in front of a working person is a cute thing
- 19:32Speaker 10: to do when the election of our lives is before us.
- 19:37Speaker 10: Because that's what people and billionaires like that do.
- 19:42Speaker 1: That was AOC, of course. I liked that because I
- 19:45Speaker 1: think it turns it into a real populist argument and
- 19:48Speaker 1: sort of exposes the fraud without being like, nah.
- 19:52Speaker 3: No, I think that's right.
- 19:53Speaker 1: Which that was my scientific term for what I thought
- 19:55Speaker 1: most of the responses were like, nah.
- 19:57Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 19:58Speaker 1: Speaking of the world's richest man, Elon's now running a
- 20:00Speaker 1: sweepstakes in Pennsylvania where he gives a million dollars a
- 20:03Speaker 1: day to someone who signed his super PACs petition. You
- 20:07Speaker 1: sign a petition saying you support the first and second amendment.
- 20:10Speaker 1: The only requirement, of course, is that you live in
- 20:11Speaker 1: Pennsylvania or in one of the other swing states and
- 20:14Speaker 1: are registered to vote. He's already given away at least
- 20:17Speaker 1: two checks. But if you Google how to sign up,
- 20:20Speaker 1: all the top results are articles examining whether this is legal. Tommy,
- 20:24Speaker 1: have you read some of those articles? And can you
- 20:25Speaker 1: tell us if it is in fact legal?
- 20:27Speaker 2: Tommy's read an article. He's here to tell us what
- 20:28Speaker 2: he found.
- 20:29Speaker 4: Much like Elon.
- 20:30Speaker 3: I skimmed a couple.
- 20:31Speaker 1: Much like Donald Trump learning the fry later for the
- 20:34Speaker 1: first time. Hey, here we are.
- 20:35Speaker 3: Kimmy Finance Law. So the law specifically says you cannot
- 20:38Speaker 3: pay or offer to pay someone to register to vote
- 20:40Speaker 3: or to vote. And those who do so can be
- 20:42Speaker 3: fined up to $ 10, 000 or get five years in jail
- 20:45Speaker 3: or both. Because basically we don't want the election turning
- 20:48Speaker 3: into a bunch of billionaires paying the most people to vote.
- 20:50Speaker 2: Well, some of us don't want that.
- 20:52Speaker 1: Some of us don't.
- 20:52Speaker 3: Furthermore, the Department of Justice clarifies in its guidelines about
- 20:56Speaker 3: prosecuting election offenses that bribes include lottery chances or sweepstakes.
- 21:01Speaker 3: So making this sort of a sweepstakes for Elon does
- 21:04Speaker 3: not get out of jail free card. So some election
- 21:07Speaker 3: law experts think that this gambit from Elon is clearly illegal.
- 21:12Speaker 3: The must defenders will say, no, he's just offering a
- 21:15Speaker 3: reward to people who sign his petition. He's not encouraging
- 21:18Speaker 3: you to register to vote. But as you noted, John,
- 21:20Speaker 3: to be eligible, you have to be registered to vote
- 21:22Speaker 3: or live in one of these seven swing states. And
- 21:24Speaker 3: the deadline for entering the contest just happens to be
- 21:27Speaker 3: the deadline to register to vote in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
- 21:30Speaker 3: So it's not subtle. It's just it's very clearly just
- 21:33Speaker 3: designed and, you know, talked about in concert with a
- 21:37Speaker 3: bunch of messages about registering or voting early. With all
- 21:40Speaker 3: election law things, you can find experts who say it's illegal.
- 21:43Speaker 3: You can find those who say it's not. big picture,
- 21:46Speaker 3: I think Elon is betting that no one will enforce it.
- 21:49Speaker 3: That if they do.
- 21:50Speaker 1: Good bet when you look at the history of the FEC.
- 21:51Speaker 3: Trump-friendly judges will probably get your back because they're greenlighting
- 21:55Speaker 3: all kinds of campaign spending these days. And if Trump
- 21:58Speaker 3: gets elected, obviously he will just never, ever prosecute Elon Musk.
- 22:03Speaker 2: Down the list of pardons for him.
- 22:05Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 22:05Speaker 3: So I know Jamie Raskin talks about this in some
- 22:07Speaker 3: more detail in today's What A Day newsletter. So check
- 22:10Speaker 3: that out. But, you know, I think the bigger picture
- 22:12Speaker 3: is like, what are the politics of this? Will people
- 22:13Speaker 3: think it's gross?
- 22:15Speaker 1: I kind of do. Gross or just like, oh, you
- 22:18Speaker 1: got to you got to pay people to vote for Trump.
- 22:20Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. It feels like it does not.
- 22:23Speaker 3: I think Americans might inherently be offended by paying people
- 22:26Speaker 3: off to vote.
- 22:27Speaker 1: That's why that's actually the part about the AOC clip
- 22:29Speaker 1: that I liked even more than McDonald's part is just like, oh,
- 22:32Speaker 1: this billionaire is going to dangle a million dollars in
- 22:34Speaker 1: front of the plebs to see if you'll vote for,
- 22:36Speaker 1: you know, it's like such a.
- 22:38Speaker 2: That said, if I were I'll just say that if
- 22:40Speaker 2: I were a registered voter in any of the swing
- 22:42Speaker 2: states that were eligible, I would, of course, sign this pledge.
- 22:45Speaker 2: Everybody listening, if you feel like you could sign this pledge,
- 22:48Speaker 2: I would consider doing it because you can do a
- 22:50Speaker 2: lot more with a million dollars than Elon Musk can.
- 22:53Speaker 2: And yeah, no, the what honestly reminded me of is
- 22:57Speaker 2: there's like old footage and photographs of like Belgian and
- 23:02Speaker 2: British colonists, like throwing coins and candies at the children
- 23:07Speaker 2: in their colonies. And that's what Elon going out there
- 23:10Speaker 2: and like dangling in money, money in front of people
- 23:12Speaker 2: like genuinely reminded me of.
- 23:14Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 23:14Speaker 1: It's, I don't think it's very, I don't, I also
- 23:17Speaker 1: don't think it's very effective just from a, like, yeah,
- 23:20Speaker 1: you can sign the, if you're a registered voter or
- 23:22Speaker 1: you registered to vote, this still doesn't mean you're going
- 23:24Speaker 1: to go vote.
- 23:25Speaker 5: No.
- 23:25Speaker 3: And this suggestion is like, okay, well it's a first amendment,
- 23:28Speaker 3: second amendment petition. So you're only going to get Republicans
- 23:30Speaker 3: and then you're gonna have their contact info. And then,
- 23:32Speaker 3: you know, Elon can, get them with messaging and actually
- 23:35Speaker 3: turn them out. And no, you're just having a bunch
- 23:36Speaker 3: of people who want money. So they'll pretend to care
- 23:38Speaker 3: about the first and second amendment and sign your dumb
- 23:40Speaker 3: little petition.
- 23:41Speaker 1: And again, you'd have to take our word for it.
- 23:43Speaker 1: A lot of the, they interviewed some Trump campaign officials
- 23:45Speaker 1: about this, who of course all in background about Elon
- 23:48Speaker 1: and the ground game and everything. And to a person,
- 23:50Speaker 1: they were all just like, yeah, he's got his own thing.
- 23:52Speaker 1: We've got our other things and he's just doing it
- 23:54Speaker 1: where we're happy to have them out here. But it
- 23:57Speaker 1: sounds like they.
- 23:58Speaker 2: But this is like, I feel like this is the
- 23:59Speaker 2: honor of Palmer's dick of the, of the Elon shit,
- 24:03Speaker 2: which is like, no, it's not the million dollar pledge.
- 24:05Speaker 2: It'll make sense in a second. It's the tens of millions.
- 24:08Speaker 1: He's doing the weave.
- 24:09Speaker 2: I'm doing the weave, baby. I've been weaving.
- 24:11Speaker 5: Listen.
- 24:12Speaker 2: Do you think Trump invented the weave?
- 24:14Speaker 3: That guy's been weaving dicks forever.
- 24:18Speaker 2: It's the hundreds of millions of dollars being dropped on
- 24:21Speaker 2: the race by Elon, by the crypto bros buying ads.
- 24:24Speaker 2: This really is now in the homestretch. There's the Kamala
- 24:27Speaker 2: Harris campaign And then there's the kind of twisted, bizarro,
- 24:32Speaker 2: evil version, right? Like the Kamala Harris campaign has raised
- 24:35Speaker 2: a billion dollars. Trump has Elon's money and all of
- 24:37Speaker 2: this crypto money and all this billionaire money from Ken
- 24:39Speaker 2: Griffin and others. There is a real field organization. There's
- 24:42Speaker 2: their paid-for field organization, which I really hope is working
- 24:47Speaker 2: about as well as you would expect an Elon-turned-on field
- 24:52Speaker 2: organization in the last weeks of this campaign. Then you
- 24:55Speaker 2: have a turnout-the-vote operation versus a... undermine and scare the
- 25:00Speaker 2: vote operation. Like there are these two things sitting side
- 25:02Speaker 2: by side, and Elon is a big part of that.
- 25:05Speaker 1: Last thing before we get to Kamala Harris, we mentioned
- 25:07Speaker 1: already the Democrats have different theories of the case about
- 25:10Speaker 1: how to attack Trump and company. We haven't talked about
- 25:13Speaker 1: our former boss, Barack Obama, who's been having a really
- 25:16Speaker 1: good time on the campaign trail, just tearing into Trump.
- 25:20Speaker 1: Let's listen to how he did it recently.
- 25:22Speaker 5: You would be worried if your grandpa started acting like this.
- 25:29Speaker 5: You would.
- 25:30Speaker 7: I mean, right?
- 25:32Speaker 5: You'd like call up your brother, your cousin or something
- 25:34Speaker 5: and be like, hey, have you seen Grandpa lately? What
- 25:38Speaker 5: are we going to do? But this is coming from
- 25:42Speaker 5: somebody who wants unchecked power. Wants the most powerful office
- 25:48Speaker 5: on earth with the nuclear codes and all that. Now,
- 25:55Speaker 5: the point is we don't, we... We do not need
- 25:59Speaker 5: to see what an older, loonier Donald Trump looks.
- 26:03Speaker 2: Like with no guardrails.
- 26:06Speaker 5: America's ready to turn the page.
- 26:09Speaker 1: Speaking of people who like dick jokes, speeches. So that's
- 26:14Speaker 1: basically another version of the unserious man, serious consequences that
- 26:18Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has used. I don't know. I like it.
- 26:21Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think threat to democracy can sound
- 26:22Speaker 3: a little vague and hard to understand in practice. I
- 26:25Speaker 3: think don't give kooky grandpa the nukes. Like that's that's
- 26:28Speaker 3: not complicated.
- 26:29Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 26:30Speaker 1: Yes.
- 26:30Speaker 2: I think that that was great. And it was much
- 26:32Speaker 2: it was actually much more like there's it's really just
- 26:35Speaker 2: like Donald Trump would be a mad king. Sometimes we
- 26:37Speaker 2: talk more about the mad, sometimes talk more about the king.
- 26:39Speaker 2: And like that was, I think, more mad focus. But
- 26:41Speaker 2: you saw a little little of the kind of the
- 26:43Speaker 2: the threat to democracy rhetoric with the phrase guardrails. with
- 26:46Speaker 2: no guardrails. It's very like kind of threat to democracy.
- 26:49Speaker 1: I like the word guardrails just because you can conjure
- 26:52Speaker 1: up a picture at least, as opposed to some of
- 26:54Speaker 1: these words that the democracy defenders use.
- 26:57Speaker 3: Yeah, no, for sure.
- 26:58Speaker 1: Everyone knows what a guardrail is.
- 26:59Speaker 2: No, I agree with that. But I think if you don't,
- 27:01Speaker 2: what do you mean guardrail? The argument that Donald Trump
- 27:05Speaker 2: is just, he's losing it. You just don't want somebody
- 27:07Speaker 2: who's losing as president. You don't really need the other
- 27:10Speaker 2: party argument that like, oh, Mike Pence doesn't support him.
- 27:13Speaker 2: He's going to have a different group of people around him.
- 27:14Speaker 2: That is a different argument.
- 27:16Speaker 1: I think that second part is a very effective argument.
- 27:20Speaker 1: I agree. I think the big obstacle here, the big
- 27:22Speaker 1: hurdle you've got to overcome is what Tommy pointed out,
- 27:24Speaker 1: which is everyone's like, oh yeah, we survived the first
- 27:27Speaker 1: Trump term. And I think what you have to, the
- 27:29Speaker 1: argument you have to make is, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's fine.
- 27:31Speaker 1: And maybe you haven't tuned in since then, but this
- 27:33Speaker 1: would be much different because he's fucking crazier.
- 27:35Speaker 3: This has to be new information.
- 27:36Speaker 1: He's crazier. And the people around him that were like
- 27:40Speaker 1: somewhat normal are all gone. And the people that are there,
- 27:43Speaker 1: Your Laura Loomers, your Mike Flynn's, all these people, they
- 27:46Speaker 1: are fucking the bottom of the barrel.
- 27:48Speaker 2: I completely agree all that with all that. I just
- 27:49Speaker 2: think that like Barack Obama, even at his most like
- 27:52Speaker 2: he's we're all struggling to make this to tell this
- 27:55Speaker 2: story that's connecting the fact that he's a kind of
- 27:58Speaker 2: a doofus who's losing a step and wandering around the
- 28:01Speaker 2: stage and not totally control of his faculties from the
- 28:04Speaker 2: authoritarian strongman that's coming towards us. I think both. are
- 28:08Speaker 2: part of the story and we're all figuring out different
- 28:10Speaker 2: ways to talk about them. I think that guardrails thing
- 28:12Speaker 2: is just like, that's a larger argument that we don't
- 28:15Speaker 2: see there, but I get it.
- 28:16Speaker 1: All right, we're recording this on Monday afternoon, West Coast time.
- 28:30Speaker 1: And today alone, Kamala Harris did an event near Philly,
- 28:33Speaker 1: a conversation with Liz Cheney, hosted by her pal, Sarah
- 28:36Speaker 1: Longwell and Bulwark. She was in the Detroit suburbs and
- 28:38Speaker 1: the Milwaukee suburbs. Those were after we taped. Here's a
- 28:41Speaker 1: sampling of the message she's driving in those places. This
- 28:44Speaker 1: is from her event in Detroit, and that was moderated
- 28:47Speaker 1: by Maria Shriver.
- 28:48Speaker 2: Madam Vice President, you know, everybody I talk to says,
- 28:51Speaker 2: you know, I have to turn off the news.
- 28:52Speaker 7: I can't read anything. I'm meditating. I'm doing yoga.
- 28:55Speaker 2: I'm so anxious.
- 28:57Speaker 7: I just don't even know.
- 28:57Speaker 2: I'm eating gummies, all kinds of things, you know.
- 29:01Speaker 3: What are you doing? What are you doing?
- 29:03Speaker 1: Not eating gummies.
- 29:06Speaker 6: I've said many times, I do believe Donald Trump to
- 29:09Speaker 6: be an unserious man. But the consequences of him ever
- 29:14Speaker 6: being in the White House again are brutally serious. And
- 29:19Speaker 6: take it from the people who know him best. His
- 29:22Speaker 6: former chief of staff when he was president, two former
- 29:27Speaker 6: defense secretaries. his national security advisor, and of course his
- 29:31Speaker 6: vice president, who have all in one way or another
- 29:36Speaker 6: used the word that he is unfit to be president again,
- 29:40Speaker 6: and is dangerous.
- 29:41Speaker 1: And that illustrates the challenge from the other side she
- 29:44Speaker 1: goes from gummies laughing gummies to he's a dangerous threat it's.
- 29:49Speaker 2: So funny that just like i'm sorry but like shriver
- 29:52Speaker 2: just talking about what people are doing to deal with
- 29:53Speaker 2: their stress just sounded so fucking rich so rich this
- 29:57Speaker 2: is what it was yeah.
- 29:59Speaker 1: So the headline in the Times from Monday morning's Pennsylvania
- 30:02Speaker 1: event was Cheney with Harris tells anti-abortion women it's OK
- 30:06Speaker 1: to back her. Just wild times. What's your take on
- 30:09Speaker 1: what the strategy was behind these Cheney events?
- 30:12Speaker 3: So, I mean, there is a Times analysis that talks
- 30:15Speaker 3: about who both campaigns think are the persuadable voters left
- 30:18Speaker 3: out there. And the Harris campaign thinks about 10 percent
- 30:20Speaker 3: of voters in swing states are still winnable. And a
- 30:22Speaker 3: big chunk of those voters are Republican women who dislike Trump.
- 30:27Speaker 3: but need to hear more from her on the border
- 30:29Speaker 3: and the economy to close the deal. And these events
- 30:31Speaker 3: are laser focused on those women. And they also, I think,
- 30:35Speaker 3: generally push back on the Trump criticism of Kamala Harris
- 30:38Speaker 3: as like a, what's it, she's a Marxist, communist, fascist
- 30:42Speaker 3: at this point, you know, whatever he's calling her, some
- 30:44Speaker 3: sort of extreme radical. When you see her up there
- 30:45Speaker 3: with Maria Shriver or Liz Cheney, I think that really
- 30:48Speaker 3: rebuts those criticisms in a pretty strong way.
- 30:53Speaker 1: I was watching the Pennsylvania one and When Kamala Harris
- 30:57Speaker 1: got a question about abortion and she started giving her answer,
- 30:59Speaker 1: I was watching Liz Cheney and I'm like, well, this
- 31:00Speaker 1: is awkward because it's like, usually they're just talking about
- 31:03Speaker 1: things they agree on. And then Cheney asked to step
- 31:07Speaker 1: in and then gave that answer on abortion. And it
- 31:09Speaker 1: just made me think, you know, there's been some criticism
- 31:11Speaker 1: from some corners of the internet on the left that like, oh,
- 31:15Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is out there with the Cheneys and now
- 31:17Speaker 1: she's blowing the whole thing. But like, not only has
- 31:20Speaker 1: Kamala Harris not moderated any positions or given up anything
- 31:25Speaker 1: in order to get the support of Liz Cheney, there's
- 31:27Speaker 1: Liz Cheney saying, oh, by the way, I'm against abortion,
- 31:31Speaker 1: but I'm here because I think this is so important.
- 31:34Speaker 1: And by the way, these abortion bans have gone way
- 31:36Speaker 1: too far. She was talking about how in Texas, Ken Paxton,
- 31:40Speaker 1: the attorney general, is suing to get women's private medical
- 31:43Speaker 1: records because he wants to see if they've traveled over
- 31:45Speaker 1: state lines to get an abortion. And Liz Cheney's like,
- 31:47Speaker 1: we can't do this anymore. So I thought it was like,
- 31:49Speaker 1: I thought it's really effective.
- 31:51Speaker 2: Yeah, I just, Liz Cheney, I think, is an incredible
- 31:54Speaker 2: spokesperson in that setting. She's doing the thing we've been
- 32:00Speaker 2: asking everyone to do, and it speaks to both what
- 32:03Speaker 2: it clearly took for her to do this and also
- 32:05Speaker 2: the cowardice of so many others that she is basically
- 32:08Speaker 2: alone up there. But that was a great event. It
- 32:10Speaker 2: was just a great event, and it's incredibly persuasive.
- 32:13Speaker 3: I don't want to see Dick Cheney out there ever,
- 32:14Speaker 3: but yes, Liz Cheney is a very good spokesperson.
- 32:17Speaker 1: I don't think he'd be useful in many places.
- 32:18Speaker 3: No, and I think she's shown herself to be a
- 32:20Speaker 3: principled person from impeachment until now, and I think people
- 32:24Speaker 3: give her the benefit of the doubt.
- 32:25Speaker 1: On a lot of the other stuff. And again, it
- 32:27Speaker 1: just sends the message like, yeah, we don't agree. Yeah,
- 32:29Speaker 1: I'm conservative, but there's just bigger things at stake right now.
- 32:31Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit more about that
- 32:32Speaker 1: New York Times story that Tommy brought up. about how
- 32:35Speaker 1: both campaigns are identifying and thinking about undecided voters. Another
- 32:39Speaker 1: group of undecided voters that both the Trump and Harris
- 32:42Speaker 1: campaigns are targeting are disproportionately younger and less white. And
- 32:47Speaker 1: they talk about that in the piece. One example, a
- 32:50Speaker 1: 22-year-old in Arizona, they have him in the Times piece,
- 32:53Speaker 1: who said he doesn't care who wins and that he
- 32:55Speaker 1: only registered to vote because his mom made him. But
- 32:59Speaker 1: he will vote for Harris if someone brings a ballot
- 33:01Speaker 1: to his front door. I mean, I hope the Harris
- 33:04Speaker 1: campaign gets his address. That's why I have a field program.
- 33:07Speaker 1: His name's in the piece. Give him a call. Find
- 33:09Speaker 1: his address. Send him a ballot.
- 33:11Speaker 2: How long did the Times interview take, my man? You
- 33:15Speaker 2: care a little bit. You care enough to spend a
- 33:17Speaker 2: whole interview talking about it.
- 33:18Speaker 1: That's a good point. It's a fair point.
- 33:20Speaker 2: How much you don't care.
- 33:22Speaker 1: Trump campaign thinks that about 5% of voters are undecided.
- 33:25Speaker 1: And like you said, it's funny because we're going to
- 33:27Speaker 1: talk about Plouffe's interview in a little bit with John Heilman,
- 33:29Speaker 1: but Plouffe said there's about 4%, but I think What
- 33:32Speaker 1: you mentioned from the Times piece is the Harris campaign
- 33:34Speaker 1: thinks that up to 10% are persuadable. And the reason
- 33:38Speaker 1: I think it's bigger is because of those Republican women
- 33:41Speaker 1: or right-leaning independent women who just do not like Trump
- 33:46Speaker 1: but are not yet sold on Harris.
- 33:48Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to tell just sort of how people
- 33:51Speaker 2: slice and dice the numbers between, like, the group of
- 33:53Speaker 2: voters that either won't vote or almost certainly would vote
- 33:56Speaker 2: for Trump, the group of people that won't vote or
- 33:57Speaker 2: almost certainly or probably would vote for Kamala, and then
- 33:59Speaker 2: the group of people that are truly... going to voter
- 34:02Speaker 2: or may or may not vote, but are actually undecided.
- 34:04Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 34:04Speaker 3: The times found that they think that 3.7% of voters
- 34:07Speaker 3: in battleground states are undecided, which is only 1.2 million people.
- 34:11Speaker 3: So 1.2 million truly undecided. But I think you're right.
- 34:14Speaker 3: These numbers, these percentages swell when you're talking about, uh,
- 34:18Speaker 3: not voting to voting or, you know, people might be
- 34:21Speaker 3: persuaded to stay home basically.
- 34:23Speaker 1: Uh, anything else you guys found notable in that story?
- 34:25Speaker 2: I just, the, uh, the refrain of how people want
- 34:31Speaker 2: more information and then how hard it is to get that,
- 34:35Speaker 2: that people, the readily available information. And even that when
- 34:38Speaker 2: Kamala Harris does this huge round of press, how little
- 34:41Speaker 2: of it ultimately gets to those voters. There's one piece
- 34:44Speaker 2: in the 20 times, no single program reached more than
- 34:46Speaker 2: one in three of those undecided voters.
- 34:48Speaker 1: There's just like, I was surprised by that. The other direction.
- 34:50Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 34:51Speaker 1: So it says the, the, the, in the times, because
- 34:53Speaker 1: it said internal surveys, the Harris campaign, internal surveys, showed
- 34:56Speaker 1: that two-thirds of undecided voters in the battleground states had
- 34:59Speaker 1: consumed at least some of Kamala's interviews during her big
- 35:03Speaker 1: media blitz week or two weeks, but no single program
- 35:06Speaker 1: reached more than one in three of those undecided voters.
- 35:09Speaker 1: But two-thirds of undecideds just seeing something?
- 35:11Speaker 3: That shocked me.
- 35:13Speaker 2: I just, like.
- 35:14Speaker 1: Big daddy gang?
- 35:15Speaker 3: I guess.
- 35:15Speaker 2: I just, like, what does it mean for... I just, like,
- 35:17Speaker 2: how hard it is. Like, these are all people saying
- 35:19Speaker 2: they want more information. She's doing a full-court press across
- 35:22Speaker 2: every kind of media, and, like, maybe... maybe one in
- 35:26Speaker 2: three is getting some clip of one thing. It's just like,
- 35:30Speaker 2: just remind, just like.
- 35:31Speaker 1: I thought where you were going to go with the
- 35:32Speaker 1: more information complaint is the woman that they interviewed at
- 35:36Speaker 1: the end of the piece. She's like a 40 something
- 35:39Speaker 1: woman in Pennsylvania and she doesn't like Trump, but she's
- 35:42Speaker 1: like worried about the economy. She goes, you know, I've
- 35:44Speaker 1: heard a little bit about Kamala Harris's plans, but on housing,
- 35:47Speaker 1: she wants to give like first time homebuyers a $ 25, 000
- 35:49Speaker 1: credit on their down payment. And I just don't want
- 35:52Speaker 1: to be given more money. And no one's talking about
- 35:54Speaker 1: the supply of housing. And I was like, oh, she
- 35:56Speaker 1: wants to build 3 million more.
- 35:57Speaker 2: But she also said she might write in R.K.
- 35:59Speaker 1: Jr.
- 36:00Speaker 2: As a protest. Is that the same woman?
- 36:01Speaker 1: Yeah, that was the same woman. It's tough. Undecided voters
- 36:04Speaker 1: are tough.
- 36:04Speaker 2: And we love them.
- 36:06Speaker 1: We love them.
- 36:06Speaker 2: And we don't want to say anything other than we
- 36:08Speaker 2: love them. We just love their whole energy that they're
- 36:10Speaker 2: bringing to this.
- 36:11Speaker 1: I also found it interesting that of the more than
- 36:13Speaker 1: 100 clips during her media blitz that the Harris campaign
- 36:16Speaker 1: tested for their effectiveness in increasing her support, her proposal...
- 36:21Speaker 1: about providing home care for adding home care coverage to
- 36:24Speaker 1: Medicare coverage for seniors ranked at the top, which is
- 36:27Speaker 1: interesting because again, who's going to talk about that on
- 36:30Speaker 1: shows like ours and cable and everywhere else. I mean,
- 36:34Speaker 1: we mentioned it, but like, it's not, it's not going
- 36:35Speaker 1: to get people get pundits excited, but it moves votes.
- 36:38Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 36:38Speaker 3: It's something people care about. I also thought the Trump
- 36:40Speaker 3: campaign found that upper grabs voters were six times more
- 36:43Speaker 3: likely than other battleground voters to be motivated by their
- 36:45Speaker 3: views of the war in Gaza. They didn't really say
- 36:48Speaker 3: in which direction they, I.
- 36:49Speaker 1: Found that interesting too, especially since the Harris campaign doesn't
- 36:52Speaker 1: seem to see that.
- 36:55Speaker 2: So there was that fact. And the other point, the
- 36:57Speaker 2: other fact from the Trump campaign is that the undecideds
- 37:00Speaker 2: are more likely to work two jobs on average, and
- 37:02Speaker 2: they earn $ 15, 000 less per household than the battleground voters
- 37:05Speaker 2: who have made up their minds. And I saw those
- 37:07Speaker 2: two facts side by side, and I was like, I'm
- 37:09Speaker 2: trying to make sense of this. So undecided voters are
- 37:12Speaker 2: working two jobs and really struggling, but also more motivated by.
- 37:17Speaker 2: The Middle East than other voters. And I wondered if
- 37:20Speaker 2: some of that was a little bit of them wish
- 37:23Speaker 2: casting and kind of putting a little something out there.
- 37:25Speaker 1: I think it's also who the pool is that you're
- 37:28Speaker 1: talking about. If these voters are younger, you're just going
- 37:32Speaker 1: to get more of them that care about Gaza than
- 37:36Speaker 1: older voters, I think.
- 37:38Speaker 3: Yeah. The other sort of last thing I noticed in
- 37:40Speaker 3: this was, um, They talked about how Kamala Harris bought
- 37:43Speaker 3: ads on daytime Fox because more women are watching Fox
- 37:46Speaker 3: during the day than at night when it's more opinion focused.
- 37:48Speaker 3: And then the Washington Post had a bunch of swing
- 37:50Speaker 3: state polls out today where they asked people about their
- 37:52Speaker 3: main news sources. And they found that about a quarter
- 37:55Speaker 3: of those who consider Fox a main source of news
- 37:58Speaker 3: said they're considering voting for Kamala Harris with about one
- 38:01Speaker 3: in six saying they have already or definitely plan to
- 38:04Speaker 3: vote for her, which is a very surprising fact, I thought.
- 38:07Speaker 1: Well, on... The last pod we did, I can't remember when,
- 38:10Speaker 1: with Dan, I had looked at the latest New York
- 38:12Speaker 1: Times poll, and that showed that 10% of undecided voters
- 38:16Speaker 1: say that Fox was a news source for them.
- 38:18Speaker 2: Yeah, but then I wonder, like, okay, so then the
- 38:20Speaker 2: kind of person answering these polls is the kind of
- 38:23Speaker 2: person consuming this news. And I don't know. It made
- 38:25Speaker 2: me think, like, well, does that tell you more about
- 38:27Speaker 2: the poll than it does about the voters?
- 38:30Speaker 1: Well, we also got more insight into how the Harris
- 38:32Speaker 1: campaign is thinking about this extremely close race from David
- 38:35Speaker 1: Plouffe in a new interview with Puck's John Heilman. Here's
- 38:38Speaker 1: some of that. This race is.
- 38:40Speaker 9: Just dead even. And listen, I think the Trump campaign
- 38:44Speaker 9: would admit that too. And you can tell based on
- 38:47Speaker 9: their activity and what they're saying. I guess my confidence
- 38:50Speaker 9: is more based on looking at who the undecided voters are.
- 38:55Speaker 9: And data these days is incredibly rich and sophisticated. Every
- 38:58Speaker 9: battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who
- 39:02Speaker 9: are still trying to decide who to vote for. In
- 39:04Speaker 9: the early voting data we're seeing so far, there's no
- 39:07Speaker 9: suggestion that that they are turning out a bunch of
- 39:11Speaker 9: irregular voters.
- 39:12Speaker 4: Does your data in the seven battleground states show any
- 39:15Speaker 4: sign that Trump has momentum and that he's tight? Whether
- 39:18Speaker 4: you say, I get that mathematically, statistically, this is going
- 39:22Speaker 4: to be a toss-up race within the margin of error
- 39:24Speaker 4: in all seven. But you could see there is momentum
- 39:28Speaker 4: that's coming through in your data that's not.
- 39:30Speaker 10: Noise.
- 39:30Speaker 4: Does the Trump campaign have any of that in any
- 39:32Speaker 4: of the seven battleground states?
- 39:33Speaker 1: No. I would listen to an interview with David Plouffe.
- 39:37Speaker 1: Maybe he should just give like five minutes every night
- 39:40Speaker 1: from now until the next two weeks. Wouldn't that be nice?
- 39:43Speaker 2: For sure.
- 39:44Speaker 1: Because it's not like, I call this, it's prestige hopium.
- 39:47Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 39:49Speaker 1: It's not like everything's going to be fine kind of thing,
- 39:51Speaker 1: but it is because, because at the end he's still like, yeah,
- 39:54Speaker 1: we could lose this race. It's very close. It's tied. Right.
- 39:57Speaker 1: But it is, it's just a lot of great insight
- 39:59Speaker 1: from pluff. I, I highly recommend you listen to it
- 40:01Speaker 1: and pluff. If you have any more stuff to say,
- 40:03Speaker 1: just come back.
- 40:03Speaker 2: We'll do that five minutes here or the calm app,
- 40:05Speaker 2: by the way. But, uh, yeah, I, it's also like,
- 40:10Speaker 2: there's a point, point of the interview where. Heilman asked
- 40:13Speaker 2: him like, well, what do you say to people looking
- 40:16Speaker 2: at the, the swinging of the, the, the Nate Silver average.
- 40:19Speaker 2: And he's like, I don't, I wouldn't look at that.
- 40:20Speaker 2: I don't look at that.
- 40:21Speaker 1: And it was just like, yeah, it's based on public polls.
- 40:23Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 40:23Speaker 2: They just don't look, he won't look at any public polls.
- 40:26Speaker 2: He thinks they're junk, but that, but just there with that,
- 40:28Speaker 2: like that they're based on public polls. And if the
- 40:33Speaker 2: Nate Silver model says it's 52, 48 versus 48, 52,
- 40:37Speaker 2: it still means that in 48 times out of a
- 40:39Speaker 2: hundred Kamala wins or 48 times out of a hundred
- 40:41Speaker 2: Trump wins, like these little changes don't matter. And it
- 40:43Speaker 2: was like what Plouffe said to Dan, couple of days ago,
- 40:46Speaker 2: very similar to what he's saying here, which is basically
- 40:48Speaker 2: like these ebbs and flows in the public polling that
- 40:50Speaker 2: are causing these like epic swings and vibe shift and
- 40:53Speaker 2: text to me are like, they're just not real. They're
- 40:56Speaker 2: just not real.
- 40:57Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 40:57Speaker 3: I mean, I think some of the, another important point
- 40:59Speaker 3: he made was that Trump is just so dependent on
- 41:01Speaker 3: turning out these first time or irregular voters. And that's
- 41:05Speaker 3: a real risk. And he repeated his observation that they're
- 41:08Speaker 3: not seeing incels marauding to early vote locations. So that
- 41:11Speaker 3: was good to hear. And again, we talk a lot
- 41:12Speaker 3: about how Democrats are struggling to to win over male voters.
- 41:17Speaker 3: But Plouffe talked about Trump's massive disadvantage when it comes
- 41:19Speaker 3: to women, especially college educated women and women under 29.
- 41:23Speaker 3: And then again, for all the talk about shifts in
- 41:25Speaker 3: the Latino vote, he made the point that a lot
- 41:27Speaker 3: of the numbers are coming from these national polls where
- 41:30Speaker 3: you're sampling like 300, 400 total people. And, you know,
- 41:35Speaker 3: there are going to be states like Florida where Trump
- 41:37Speaker 3: is going to win overwhelmingly and is going to win
- 41:39Speaker 3: with Latino voters. And that's going to skew what sort
- 41:42Speaker 3: of the aggregate picture looks like But really the Harris
- 41:46Speaker 3: campaign is concerned about Arizona and Nevada and parts of Pennsylvania. Yeah.
- 41:50Speaker 1: I also thought just in general, he said, look, Trump's
- 41:54Speaker 1: going to get 48, 48.5% of the vote. And that's
- 41:58Speaker 1: probably higher than he got even in 2020. He's like,
- 42:01Speaker 1: and that's just a fact that we're all going to
- 42:02Speaker 1: have to live with. And he thinks that any tightening
- 42:05Speaker 1: that we have seen in the polls lately is just
- 42:07Speaker 1: polls that had Trump at 43, 44, 45. And then
- 42:12Speaker 1: finally he's getting his vote share, which he's going to
- 42:13Speaker 1: end up getting. And she's sitting at 49 in a
- 42:18Speaker 1: lot of these. And so I think he has said
- 42:21Speaker 1: before to Dan too, 48, 48 or 48, 47 in
- 42:24Speaker 1: like all these swing states. And he said that the
- 42:28Speaker 1: reason that he has confidence, that he's cautiously confident is
- 42:31Speaker 1: what he said, is that he thinks that they have
- 42:34Speaker 1: a higher ceiling, that Kamala Harris has a higher ceiling
- 42:37Speaker 1: than Trump does. And that the remaining voters who are
- 42:40Speaker 1: undecided look more like Harris voters than than Trump voters.
- 42:44Speaker 1: But that said, they still have to get those voters out.
- 42:46Speaker 1: They still have some persuasion to do. And he also
- 42:49Speaker 1: said that he thinks door knocking and canvassing and going
- 42:53Speaker 1: out there is going to be more important this year,
- 42:56Speaker 1: this election, than it has been almost any other election.
- 42:58Speaker 2: Yeah, and partly because the campaign started later. There are
- 43:02Speaker 2: people that truly are undecided and want more information, and
- 43:04Speaker 2: it may be somebody coming to their door to give
- 43:06Speaker 2: it to them.
- 43:06Speaker 1: Like that kid in Arizona who needs the ballot dropped
- 43:09Speaker 1: off at his door. How are you guys feeling? Terrible.
- 43:14Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't feel great. I just, I went into
- 43:18Speaker 2: the CVS and I got a two for one, uh,
- 43:21Speaker 2: Pepsod so that I could have one in my house
- 43:23Speaker 2: and one of my car, which is, I think maybe
- 43:26Speaker 2: just being 42. I think that, I think if we
- 43:28Speaker 2: were up by five, I still probably would need it,
- 43:30Speaker 2: but I can't be sure.
- 43:30Speaker 1: I can't be sure. I feel fairly Zen. Um, you know,
- 43:35Speaker 1: it's a little angsty over the weekend. I did go
- 43:37Speaker 1: to a children's birthday party and was talking to one
- 43:40Speaker 1: of the parents. And of course you have to, you know,
- 43:42Speaker 1: you do the pod wherever you go. And, uh, And
- 43:45Speaker 1: I was giving what I thought was just a pretty
- 43:47Speaker 1: not optimistic or pessimistic neutral analysis of where the race stands.
- 43:51Speaker 1: And I finished up and then she walked back up
- 43:53Speaker 1: to me 10 seconds later. She goes, you made me
- 43:55Speaker 1: feel awful. This is scary. I'm like, yeah, we can lose. Like,
- 43:59Speaker 1: it's not. No one should think that. I think there
- 44:02Speaker 1: were some a lot of good feelings as there should
- 44:04Speaker 1: have been. After the switch, after the convention, after the debate,
- 44:08Speaker 1: I know that I thought that there was a possibility
- 44:10Speaker 1: if she did well in the debate, maybe she'd open
- 44:11Speaker 1: a little bit of lead that would be stable and
- 44:13Speaker 1: that would be that. it's just, it's going to be
- 44:15Speaker 1: a tight race.
- 44:15Speaker 3: What feels bad is that this piece of shit is
- 44:17Speaker 3: even in the running.
- 44:18Speaker 1: Yes.
- 44:18Speaker 3: And that will never not be the case.
- 44:20Speaker 2: But it's also like, I just don't want us to
- 44:22Speaker 2: do the same thing we did in 2016. Like, Who
- 44:25Speaker 2: gives a shit how you feel over the next two weeks?
- 44:27Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Maria Shriver. It doesn't fucking matter. No, but
- 44:30Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. No, and thank you for asking. We
- 44:33Speaker 2: should check in with people you love.
- 44:34Speaker 1: Thank you for the question.
- 44:35Speaker 2: Like, oh, what are you doing to deal with all
- 44:37Speaker 2: the stress? The stress over the next two weeks? Who cares?
- 44:39Speaker 1: Who fucking cares? And I know you did what you
- 44:42Speaker 1: guys have done this to, and you felt the same thing. Like,
- 44:44Speaker 1: I ended up doing a kickoff call for the Wisconsin Democrats,
- 44:48Speaker 1: their organizers, the whole staff, Sunday night. And after a
- 44:52Speaker 1: weekend of feeling a little angsty about everything... I finished
- 44:55Speaker 1: that call and I heard all the stories about the
- 44:57Speaker 1: doors they knocked on and the voters they talked to
- 44:59Speaker 1: the people. And I was just listening. I was just
- 45:01Speaker 1: like listening on the call after I like talked to
- 45:03Speaker 1: them for a couple of minutes. And I, I stayed
- 45:05Speaker 1: on for the whole half hour. And I'm like this,
- 45:07Speaker 1: I walked out of that call. I'm like, this was
- 45:08Speaker 1: better than any good poll. I just felt, I felt
- 45:10Speaker 1: so great. Now is that feeling, uh, valid because it's
- 45:14Speaker 1: all anecdotal. Who knows? Maybe not, but it, it felt good.
- 45:17Speaker 2: Well, that was a point that like you'll hear with
- 45:18Speaker 2: shots where he was talking about that moment where Kamala says, Oh,
- 45:21Speaker 2: you're at the wrong value. You're looking for the smaller
- 45:22Speaker 2: one down the street. And he said that like when
- 45:24Speaker 2: he was first running, there was no poll. He's running
- 45:26Speaker 2: a state legislator race in Hawaii. And that like, you
- 45:28Speaker 2: did matter. The vibes did matter. They mattered both because
- 45:31Speaker 2: they represented how things would go, but also vibes will
- 45:34Speaker 2: help you get things to where you need them to go.
- 45:36Speaker 2: And so like a lot less angsting, like, are we
- 45:39Speaker 2: going to be okay?
- 45:40Speaker 1: Text.
- 45:41Speaker 2: It is not known. It will not be known until
- 45:43Speaker 2: a few days after the election. Everybody's just going to
- 45:45Speaker 2: go to vote save America and do the shift you
- 45:47Speaker 2: haven't done yet.
- 45:47Speaker 1: Well, who needs polls though? When we now have actual
- 45:50Speaker 1: votes coming in that we can analyze before they've even
- 45:53Speaker 1: been counted. That's right. More than 15 million people have
- 45:57Speaker 1: already voted early, which means tea leaves are being read
- 46:01Speaker 1: and lessons are not being learned. And either of you
- 46:05Speaker 1: guys want to remind folks what the early vote can
- 46:07Speaker 1: and can't tell us?
- 46:09Speaker 2: Yeah, it can't tell us anything. It can't tell you
- 46:12Speaker 2: anything because this early voting, it has got 2020, 2022, 2024.
- 46:17Speaker 2: Each of these elections, like the the pandemic. post-pandemic, the
- 46:25Speaker 2: rise of vote-by-mail and early voting, a Republican candidate who
- 46:29Speaker 2: has come out against vote-by-mail and tried to push people
- 46:33Speaker 2: towards Election Day. The influence of all of this means
- 46:36Speaker 2: we just don't know what the vote share will be
- 46:37Speaker 2: on Election Day, and an election that will be decided
- 46:39Speaker 2: by a point or two, if we're lucky, that will
- 46:42Speaker 2: really matter. And so the margins are what matters, and
- 46:45Speaker 2: there's no way to know the margins. Maybe there's value
- 46:47Speaker 2: to it for a campaign and very specific kind of
- 46:49Speaker 2: targeting and information, but for us out here in the world,
- 46:53Speaker 2: not particularly useful.
- 46:54Speaker 3: Yeah, unless you're doing very sophisticated regression analysis based on blah, blah, blah, math, math.
- 47:00Speaker 3: Don't read this stuff.
- 47:01Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 47:01Speaker 3: It's useless.
- 47:02Speaker 1: Yeah, so everyone knows because we heard Plouffe talking about
- 47:07Speaker 1: they feel good about the incels not showing up at
- 47:09Speaker 1: the polls. You might be thinking, what does that mean?
- 47:10Speaker 2: Because the ballots aren't coming in sticky.
- 47:14Speaker 1: Wow, we're setting a real record on this episode.
- 47:18Speaker 2: Good episode.
- 47:18Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 47:20Speaker 1: What the early vote can tell you, and again, it
- 47:22Speaker 1: can really tell campaigns who have so much sophisticated data
- 47:26Speaker 1: and are calling thousands of people a night and ground
- 47:29Speaker 1: game and all that kind of stuff. You know, they
- 47:31Speaker 1: can tell you party, demographic information, vote history. I think
- 47:35Speaker 1: that's what Plouffe's referring to. So in some states, you
- 47:38Speaker 1: know if the voter who's voted early has voted a
- 47:40Speaker 1: lot before or are one of those low propensity voters.
- 47:43Speaker 1: And then you can see if the low propensity voter
- 47:45Speaker 1: looks like a Harris voter or looks like a Trump voter.
- 47:47Speaker 1: So you can make some educated guesses if you're the campaign.
- 47:51Speaker 1: And that only helps you insofar as not knowing if
- 47:54Speaker 1: you're going to win, but knowing, okay, we've got these voters,
- 47:57Speaker 1: but we still need to go after these voters because
- 47:58Speaker 1: they haven't early voted yet. And so now we need
- 48:00Speaker 1: to go make sure that they send their ballots in. Like,
- 48:03Speaker 1: that's what early vote is good for in a campaign.
- 48:06Speaker 1: It's not good for telling you like, oh yeah, now
- 48:08Speaker 1: we're going to win. Because even if you ask a
- 48:09Speaker 1: campaign with sophisticated data analysis about what the early vote
- 48:12Speaker 1: is showing, they'll say, well, we're a little down, but
- 48:15Speaker 1: hopefully on election day, everything, you know, we're going to
- 48:17Speaker 1: chase all those ballots that didn't come in yet. That's
- 48:19Speaker 1: what they'll say.
- 48:19Speaker 2: And by the way, that's not necessarily a false hope, right?
- 48:21Speaker 2: Like there have been elections where the early vote people
- 48:23Speaker 2: took that to predict a Democratic lean that wasn't there.
- 48:25Speaker 2: There were times where it used a particular Republican lean
- 48:27Speaker 2: that wasn't there. Like it's just, it's not been predictive.
- 48:30Speaker 3: There were people in 2016 looking at the early vote
- 48:32Speaker 3: predicting landslide Hillary Clinton victories, and they could not have
- 48:35Speaker 3: possibly been more wrong. Let's just not make that mistake again.
- 48:39Speaker 1: And, you know, because again, the behavior, the voting behavior
- 48:42Speaker 1: has changed so much that even in, I remember in 2022,
- 48:46Speaker 1: the early vote was sort of bad for Democrats, quote
- 48:50Speaker 1: unquote bad compared to 2020 because everyone was using the
- 48:53Speaker 1: 2020 comparison. And it turned out that was all wrong
- 48:56Speaker 1: because people's behavior started changing.
- 48:59Speaker 2: We will find out after the election what we learned
- 49:02Speaker 2: about early vote and what we learned about the polling
- 49:04Speaker 2: this cycle.
- 49:05Speaker 1: And then we will take those lessons. And forget them.
- 49:08Speaker 4: And over-apply them.
- 49:09Speaker 2: We will fight the.
- 49:10Speaker 1: Last war yet again.
- 49:11Speaker 2: We shall fight the last war.
- 49:12Speaker 3: There's Kamala to the incels.
- 49:14Speaker 6: Do not come.
- 49:17Speaker 2: Do not come. That's for the Val cells.
- 49:20Speaker 5: Come.
- 49:20Speaker 7: Oh, God.
- 49:21Speaker 3: You can yes and a joke once.
- 49:22Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 49:24Speaker 1: That's some funny shit. Okay. When we come back from
- 49:30Speaker 1: the break, Lovett's going to talk with Senator Brian Schatz
- 49:32Speaker 1: about the latest with the key Senate races and the presidential.
- 49:35Speaker 1: We have a senator on this episode. Shots is like,
- 49:38Speaker 1: how did this happen to me?
- 49:39Speaker 3: That's the throat of Shots is me doing that.
- 49:41Speaker 1: Yeah, that's it.
- 49:42Speaker 2: Anyway. You know who is coming on the pod? It's
- 49:45Speaker 2: Senator Brian Shots. Is that what you want, Tommy? Want
- 49:48Speaker 2: me to add to your little joke? Okay.
- 49:49Speaker 4: I like that.
- 49:51Speaker 1: Your little joke. See? Oh, you can tie a little joke, too.
- 49:55Speaker 7: Oh, my God.
- 49:55Speaker 2: You can make us a scorecard. We're already in the ads.
- 49:59Speaker 1: Anyway, yeah, we have two quick announcements. First, the entire
- 50:03Speaker 1: season of Empire City, the untold origin story of the NYPD,
- 50:06Speaker 1: is finally out. The series that was named one of
- 50:08Speaker 1: Vulture's best podcasts of 2024 takes listeners through pivotal moments
- 50:12Speaker 1: in the NYPD's history that shape modern policing, including how
- 50:15Speaker 1: the police got militarized, what happened when New York City
- 50:17Speaker 1: cops started policing abortion, and the first ever investigation into
- 50:20Speaker 1: police corruption. You can binge all episodes now by following
- 50:23Speaker 1: Empire City wherever you get your podcasts and enjoy ad-free
- 50:25Speaker 1: listening by joining Wondry Plus in the Wondry app or
- 50:28Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts. Also.
- 50:31Speaker 1: You don't need us to tell you this, but the
- 50:32Speaker 1: most effective messengers in these final days are not people
- 50:36Speaker 1: like us.
- 50:37Speaker 7: What?
- 50:37Speaker 1: They're people like you.
- 50:38Speaker 7: Oh.
- 50:39Speaker 1: That's why we've launched what we're calling Last Call. Last Call.
- 50:43Speaker 1: Last Call. We should have like a ding.
- 50:45Speaker 3: Oh, let's add a ding in post.
- 50:47Speaker 1: Let someone add a ding there. We need everyone listening.
- 50:50Speaker 1: That means you. If you're listening, we're talking to you.
- 50:52Speaker 1: To think of three people you know in swing states. Okay?
- 50:57Speaker 1: Three people you know. Arizona. Nevada. Michigan. Wisconsin. Pennsylvania. North
- 51:01Speaker 1: Carolina or Georgia. Friend, former colleague, a one-time hookup, a frenemy,
- 51:09Speaker 1: an acquaintance.
- 51:10Speaker 2: The love of your life who moved away and broke
- 51:11Speaker 2: your heart.
- 51:11Speaker 1: Yeah, the one that got away. Here's the ask. Scroll
- 51:14Speaker 1: through your contacts list, find those names, and text or
- 51:17Speaker 1: call them or message them. Do whatever you have to do.
- 51:20Speaker 1: Then do that five more times before election day. Reminders work.
- 51:24Speaker 1: Ask them if they have a plan to vote. You
- 51:25Speaker 1: can send them to Vote Save America. They can look
- 51:28Speaker 1: at their ballots. They can figure out to make a
- 51:30Speaker 1: plan to vote. And if you don't know anyone in
- 51:32Speaker 1: those states, which, fuck you, Costa Loli, you definitely know
- 51:36Speaker 1: three people who could use a nudge to vote no
- 51:39Speaker 1: matter where they live. And that's important, too.
- 51:42Speaker 2: And for one lucky person who does it, we're giving
- 51:45Speaker 2: you a million dollars.
- 51:49Speaker 1: That is.
- 51:50Speaker 2: For the right person, a million dollars.
- 51:54Speaker 1: That is not true. That's not true.
- 51:56Speaker 2: There's a million dollars in it.
- 51:58Speaker 1: That is parody.
- 51:59Speaker 2: For one lucky person.
- 52:00Speaker 1: That is parody.
- 52:01Speaker 2: One million dollars. Wow. What a contest.
- 52:05Speaker 1: Your move, FEC. Again, if you don't know what to
- 52:09Speaker 1: say in those texts, DMs, and calls, go to votesaveamerica.com
- 52:12Speaker 1: slash vote where you can sign up to get scripts
- 52:13Speaker 1: that you can put in your own words to send
- 52:15Speaker 1: to your friends. Maybe even written by John Lovett. Just
- 52:17Speaker 1: go to votesaveamerica.com slash vote and click get the script
- 52:21Speaker 1: to get started. This message has been paid for by
- 52:23Speaker 1: Vote Save America. You can learn more at votesaveamerica.com. This
- 52:26Speaker 1: ad has not been authorized by any candidate or candidates committee.
- 52:29Speaker 1: When we come back, Brian Schatz.
- 52:43Speaker 2: Joining us today. friend of the show from the great
- 52:46Speaker 2: state of Hawaii, Senator Brian Schatz. Welcome back to the pod.
- 52:49Speaker 7: Nice to be back here, John. Good to see you.
- 52:52Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great to see you too, Senator Schatz. I
- 52:54Speaker 2: just want you to know I'm now losing it. So
- 52:56Speaker 2: this is going to be, let's see what happens. The
- 52:59Speaker 2: anxiety is through the roof. The prilosec's not working. I'm
- 53:02Speaker 2: having fever dreams. I'm having stress dreams. So we have
- 53:06Speaker 2: two weeks left. People are voting. How are you feeling?
- 53:10Speaker 2: How are you feeling about the state of the race here?
- 53:12Speaker 7: Uh, look, I, I have to say it, I'll say
- 53:15Speaker 7: it this way.
- 53:15Speaker 8: Um, we are slightly ahead and if we do everything
- 53:20Speaker 8: we're supposed to do, we will win. And if we
- 53:23Speaker 8: do anything we're not supposed to do, we will not. Um,
- 53:26Speaker 8: so I like our chances, but that, but we really
- 53:30Speaker 8: do have to execute in the next couple of weeks. Now, Kamala,
- 53:32Speaker 8: the good news, right, is that our candidate is executing
- 53:37Speaker 8: at a super, super high level. And, that's not just
- 53:40Speaker 8: important from the standpoint of vote getting. It also gives
- 53:44Speaker 8: a lot of confidence to the grassroots out there, the
- 53:46Speaker 8: people who are giving money, the people who are knocking
- 53:48Speaker 8: on doors. When you see your candidate kicking ass, you
- 53:51Speaker 8: kind of want to follow that example. So I think
- 53:54Speaker 8: it's as important that she sort of lead us as
- 53:59Speaker 8: it is that she sort of demonstrate that she's the
- 54:01Speaker 8: right person to be the next president of the United States.
- 54:04Speaker 8: So I'm feeling pretty confident, but definitely not overconfident and
- 54:08Speaker 8: You know, there's an old line in an old movie.
- 54:11Speaker 7: I don't trust happiness. So I'm going to be scared
- 54:13Speaker 7: all the way through.
- 54:14Speaker 2: Yeah, that's sounds Jewish. So let's talk about what we
- 54:19Speaker 2: what we need to do. I was talking about this
- 54:21Speaker 2: with Tim Miller and he used a sports analogy, which
- 54:24Speaker 2: is it's now about the 12th man. It's now about
- 54:26Speaker 2: the crowd and what the crowd can do. But on
- 54:30Speaker 2: the other hand, you know, we have to do everything
- 54:33Speaker 2: right and we can't do everything, anything wrong in order
- 54:35Speaker 2: to win. Why does that logic not apply to Donald Trump?
- 54:40Speaker 7: Well, listen, I don't know. And maybe it does, right?
- 54:44Speaker 8: Maybe some of these hiccups, maybe the fact that he's
- 54:47Speaker 8: starting to turn down media opportunities, maybe the fact that
- 54:52Speaker 8: he's not even campaigning in swing states, but going to
- 54:55Speaker 8: California and New York, like all of that could end
- 54:58Speaker 8: up being, in retrospect, the reason he loses. All we
- 55:01Speaker 8: can control, though, is what we're up to.
- 55:04Speaker 7: And we have to execute.
- 55:05Speaker 8: as well as we possibly can because of the Electoral College.
- 55:09Speaker 8: If this were a popular vote thing, I think I'd
- 55:11Speaker 8: feel a little more confident. But I do feel confident.
- 55:14Speaker 8: And it's a weird thing, right? The polling is fine,
- 55:16Speaker 8: but not, you know, dispositive. But I will tell you,
- 55:19Speaker 8: last night, when the vice president was interrupted by some
- 55:24Speaker 8: hecklers and she said.
- 55:25Speaker 7: Oh, no, you must be at the wrong rally.
- 55:29Speaker 8: There's a smaller one down the street. It was such
- 55:32Speaker 8: a small thing, and yet it was such a big thing.
- 55:34Speaker 8: You only do that if you have a spring in
- 55:37Speaker 8: your step. And I have very, look, I started in
- 55:40Speaker 8: politics in state legislative races where we had no money
- 55:43Speaker 8: for polling. And so it was a lot about body
- 55:46Speaker 8: language and organization and kind of the vibes on the ground.
- 55:50Speaker 8: And we could predict with some regularity, with some confidence,
- 55:53Speaker 8: who was going to win without any polling. And so
- 55:56Speaker 8: I would say, if you took all the polling out
- 55:58Speaker 8: of it, Kamala Harris is kicking ass and Donald Trump
- 56:01Speaker 8: is melting down. And then if you put the polling
- 56:04Speaker 8: into it, it's damn close.
- 56:06Speaker 2: I love that. I love a vibes-based analysis. Let's talk
- 56:09Speaker 2: about Trump. So we've got, I think, two stories right now.
- 56:13Speaker 2: One is Mad King. He's bouncing and swaying to the music.
- 56:16Speaker 2: He's rambling, seeming confused. He's canceling interviews and events. The
- 56:19Speaker 2: Harris-Walls campaign is asking on social, are you okay? And
- 56:23Speaker 2: then we've got the two-bit authoritarian. He's starting to deploy
- 56:25Speaker 2: the military, handle his enemies, promising mass deportations, threatening democracy.
- 56:30Speaker 2: How are you putting those two stories together right now?
- 56:35Speaker 7: Well, I don't think it's that hard.
- 56:37Speaker 8: I mean, I think that the problem with characterizing him
- 56:40Speaker 8: as a threat to democracy is that you're sort of
- 56:43Speaker 8: inherently giving him a ton of power, power over our
- 56:46Speaker 8: collective psyches, power over the American experiment, and then he
- 56:50Speaker 8: seems strong. And so I think what the Harris campaign
- 56:53Speaker 8: has done and sort of unlocked, even in a way
- 56:56Speaker 8: that the successful Biden campaign did not, was this idea
- 57:00Speaker 8: that sure, he is a threat, but he's also a joke.
- 57:04Speaker 8: And if you look through history, lots of people who
- 57:07Speaker 8: did lots of bad things were also ridiculous figures in
- 57:11Speaker 8: human history. And so he's both of those things. He's
- 57:15Speaker 8: a legitimate threat to the American way of life. And
- 57:18Speaker 8: he's also a jackass. And one of the things that
- 57:22Speaker 8: I think Kamala is doing well, and one of the
- 57:24Speaker 8: reasons that we were doing poorly with Biden, frankly, as
- 57:27Speaker 8: our standard bearer, is there's just at least some portion
- 57:30Speaker 8: of the electorate that wants someone who's on the ball,
- 57:35Speaker 8: who looks like they're kind of like smacking the other
- 57:37Speaker 8: side around.
- 57:38Speaker 7: And they're not really sure what they think about the issues, but.
- 57:41Speaker 8: They want someone who looks like a good television president, right?
- 57:44Speaker 7: Like someone who looks like they're kicking ass.
- 57:46Speaker 8: And Kamala Harris looks like she's kicking ass. And whatever
- 57:49Speaker 8: Donald Trump's personal flaws and policy flaws and his sort
- 57:56Speaker 8: of almost evil way of viewing the American experiment he
- 58:00Speaker 8: had some game back in the day. Like he could
- 58:03Speaker 8: actually be fun to watch, interesting to watch, infuriating to watch,
- 58:06Speaker 8: but like good television.
- 58:08Speaker 7: This is not good television anymore.
- 58:10Speaker 8: And I think that there is something pretty significant about
- 58:14Speaker 8: Kamala pointing that out. It's of course not the main thing,
- 58:17Speaker 8: but remember people vote for your side for their reasons,
- 58:21Speaker 8: not yours. We are not looking to get vindicated here.
- 58:24Speaker 8: We're just looking for the W.
- 58:26Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 58:26Speaker 2: It's funny as you say that I hadn't thought about
- 58:28Speaker 2: that way. Cause I remember, uh, early in like 2017, 2018,
- 58:32Speaker 2: I would say like, hey, everybody, we got to like
- 58:34Speaker 2: accept like Trump has some charm here. He has some charisma.
- 58:37Speaker 2: He can be funny. And people really, they did not
- 58:40Speaker 2: care for it. But it reminds me, have you seen
- 58:42Speaker 2: these videos going around a Frankie Valley being brought out
- 58:45Speaker 2: to the microphones to lip sync his old hits? There's
- 58:48Speaker 2: a little bit of a Frankie Valley energy to it
- 58:52Speaker 2: where he, I actually thought about it that way, that
- 58:55Speaker 2: he really is kind of, he's trying to do The
- 59:00Speaker 2: performance he used to do. And it's not, it isn't working.
- 59:03Speaker 2: It isn't working.
- 59:04Speaker 8: Listen, when I, so, you know, I grew up in
- 59:06Speaker 8: Hawaii and we used to go, you guys call it karaoke.
- 59:09Speaker 8: We call it karaoke. And, you know, I would always sing,
- 59:11Speaker 8: you know, just once by James Ingram.
- 59:13Speaker 7: It was a blast.
- 59:14Speaker 8: I was 16 years old. Then I was 26 years old.
- 59:16Speaker 8: And there was some point at which, you know, I'm
- 59:18Speaker 8: in my thirties. I'm singing just once by, is it
- 59:21Speaker 8: fun anymore? Is it charming anymore? Is it hilarious anymore?
- 59:24Speaker 8: I feel like he's sort of the last guy at
- 59:27Speaker 8: the karaoke bar that You know, and he won't let
- 59:29Speaker 8: go of the microphone.
- 59:31Speaker 2: You know, that story is, I think it's helpful. It's
- 59:35Speaker 2: a good analogy. It does make me sad. I think
- 59:37Speaker 2: you could keep doing karaoke. I don't think you need
- 59:39Speaker 2: to stop. I don't think you can age out of it.
- 59:42Speaker 2: And I think that you should let that go. That's something,
- 59:45Speaker 2: that's projection.
- 59:47Speaker 8: Listen, I'm not saying that I shouldn't sing. I'm just
- 59:50Speaker 8: saying I should maybe pick a new song.
- 59:51Speaker 2: Yeah, no, okay. Pick a new song, pick a new song.
- 59:53Speaker 2: So it's a close race. Rather be us than them.
- 59:57Speaker 2: But Trump could win. And based on what you're seeing
- 1:00:00Speaker 2: right now, and only to point us to places where
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: we have to work harder, close some gaps, if Trump
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: ekes it out, how did he do it? How did
- 1:00:10Speaker 2: he put together the coalition? What are we missing?
- 1:00:13Speaker 8: I still think we need more actual human beings in
- 1:00:17Speaker 8: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And we need more money in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
- 1:00:23Speaker 8: and Ohio for Sherrod Brown. You know, look, it is
- 1:00:27Speaker 8: fair to say that some of these races, you know,
- 1:00:30Speaker 8: the die is cast, the money is spent, and the voters,
- 1:00:33Speaker 8: you know, it's basically up to the voters now. But
- 1:00:35Speaker 8: there are a couple of places where it's close enough
- 1:00:37Speaker 8: and the turnout operations matter enough. And they are sophisticated
- 1:00:41Speaker 8: enough where you could take a person from, you know,
- 1:00:44Speaker 8: who lives in Santa Monica or lives in, you know,
- 1:00:46Speaker 8: South Texas and just wants to help. And they get
- 1:00:48Speaker 8: on that online phone banking thing and they actually make
- 1:00:51Speaker 8: a difference. So I would still help in the Midwest.
- 1:00:55Speaker 8: both by sending money and by either showing up physically
- 1:00:58Speaker 8: or making phone calls.
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: So Trump has been pulling out of events. Clear's campaign
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: is trying to take him out of these sort of
- 1:01:05Speaker 2: more national platforms, whether it's an NBC interview, a CNBC interview,
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: 60 Minutes. And they're just sort of resigned to what
- 1:01:13Speaker 2: he's going to do at the rallies. Meanwhile, the thought
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: might be, OK, so they're letting his freak flag fly
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: in these debates that are mostly reaching his supporters. They're
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: They're counting on the media not covering it really that
- 1:01:27Speaker 2: effectively or kind of sane-washing him or people not really
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: seeing what he's saying at these rallies. But they're going
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: to make up for it with ads that are more mainstream.
- 1:01:35Speaker 2: And yet in Pennsylvania, they're running millions upon millions of
- 1:01:38Speaker 2: dollars of ads demonizing trans people as opposed to inflation
- 1:01:43Speaker 2: or the economy or what have you. Can you make
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: sense of it at all? Is there any theory to
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: it that we might look back on and say, oh,
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: that actually was smarter than it looked?
- 1:01:54Speaker 8: No, it's not smarter than it looks. They tried it
- 1:01:57Speaker 8: the last couple of cycles. It doesn't work. It is
- 1:02:00Speaker 8: their happy place ideologically, and it is where they go
- 1:02:03Speaker 8: when they.
- 1:02:04Speaker 7: Don't have anything to run on.
- 1:02:06Speaker 8: Look, they want to be closing with an inflation message, right?
- 1:02:11Speaker 8: They want to be closing with an economic message. But
- 1:02:14Speaker 8: Kamala Harris and the Democrats and Bob Casey and Sherrod
- 1:02:17Speaker 8: Brown and Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin and everybody else
- 1:02:20Speaker 8: have basically erased the Republicans' lead on the economy and And.
- 1:02:24Speaker 7: So they just sort of like dig in. You know,
- 1:02:26Speaker 7: it used to be the caravans.
- 1:02:29Speaker 8: And because the because, first of all, border crossings are
- 1:02:32Speaker 8: at a not an all time low, but at a
- 1:02:34Speaker 8: low over the last several years. And the Republicans killed
- 1:02:37Speaker 8: the border security bill. They don't have that one. They
- 1:02:39Speaker 8: don't have inflation. And so they're just kind of like
- 1:02:41Speaker 8: digging around in their in their trunk trying to find something.
- 1:02:45Speaker 8: And this is their sort of ideological safe space. There's
- 1:02:48Speaker 8: no evidence that this moves swing voters anywhere. And I
- 1:02:52Speaker 8: think Tim Walz and Kamala Harris and everybody else is
- 1:02:54Speaker 8: handling it well, which is to stand for equality, but
- 1:02:58Speaker 8: not to dwell on it. Because frankly, what people find
- 1:03:01Speaker 8: offensive about that, regular folks, is like, why are you
- 1:03:05Speaker 8: even talking about that? That has nothing to do with
- 1:03:08Speaker 8: my life.
- 1:03:10Speaker 2: So Trump is doing a fair amount of a certain
- 1:03:14Speaker 2: kind of press, which is interviews with podcasters and influencers
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: in the kind of loosely part of the manosphere trying
- 1:03:25Speaker 2: to reach these lower propensity, less political men? A, do
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: you worry about it? And then B, should Kamala Harris
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: go on Joe Rogan?
- 1:03:37Speaker 7: Sure.
- 1:03:37Speaker 8: Listen, I worry about everything. But that doesn't mean that
- 1:03:40Speaker 8: I think this is like the winning strategy. I think
- 1:03:42Speaker 8: the winning strategy would be for him to you know,
- 1:03:45Speaker 8: wake up one morning and pretend to be a moderate and,
- 1:03:48Speaker 8: you know, say nice things about democracy. Um, that, that
- 1:03:51Speaker 8: would worry me whether this will work or not. I
- 1:03:53Speaker 8: have no idea.
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:03:54Speaker 8: I think she should go on Joe Rogan. I know
- 1:03:56Speaker 8: people who listen to Joe Rogan. I think she can
- 1:03:59Speaker 8: handle Joe Rogan. I think as I've, you know, and
- 1:04:01Speaker 8: I've watched clips, I haven't listened to like a whole
- 1:04:03Speaker 8: Joe Rogan podcast cause I don't, I can't set aside
- 1:04:06Speaker 8: two and a half hours necessarily. But, um, You know,
- 1:04:09Speaker 8: one of the things that I think is true about
- 1:04:12Speaker 8: Joe Rogan is that he's kind of impressionable and likes
- 1:04:14Speaker 8: to be kind to his guests. And I just don't
- 1:04:17Speaker 8: imagine that he's going to come in like loaded for bear.
- 1:04:19Speaker 8: I'm sure he'll have some prepped questions. But in a
- 1:04:23Speaker 8: sort of political discussion between Kamala Harris and Joe Rogan,
- 1:04:27Speaker 8: I do think Kamala wins the exchange. Now, does that
- 1:04:31Speaker 8: end up in a bunch of clippable memes that are
- 1:04:35Speaker 8: designed to make her look bad?
- 1:04:36Speaker 7: Sure.
- 1:04:37Speaker 8: But I still think, you know, they're going to do
- 1:04:38Speaker 8: that anyway. Those memes are going to be created anyway.
- 1:04:42Speaker 8: And I just think she looks strong. She looks unafraid.
- 1:04:46Speaker 8: And I think one of the other things, you know,
- 1:04:48Speaker 8: I got a couple of buddies who, you know, have
- 1:04:51Speaker 8: difficulty with Kamala, but not for any real reason other
- 1:04:53Speaker 8: than they have been sort of poisoned.
- 1:04:58Speaker 7: By the internet.
- 1:04:59Speaker 8: And so sometimes you just have to break through that
- 1:05:01Speaker 8: palace guard and talk to people directly. So But like,
- 1:05:04Speaker 8: do I think the whole campaign is going to hinge
- 1:05:06Speaker 8: on going on Joe Rogan?
- 1:05:08Speaker 7: I do not.
- 1:05:08Speaker 8: I just think she should basically find whatever audience she
- 1:05:12Speaker 8: can find. And I think what the cool thing about
- 1:05:15Speaker 8: their campaign is, I think they've figured out both like
- 1:05:17Speaker 8: probably statistically speaking, because they have real data operations and
- 1:05:21Speaker 8: intuitively that basically wherever she goes. and she presents, she
- 1:05:26Speaker 8: ends up slightly more popular than when she came in.
- 1:05:29Speaker 8: And so my view is if that's true, then Joe
- 1:05:32Speaker 8: Rogan's got 12 million people and you should.
- 1:05:35Speaker 2: Talk to him. Yeah, more Kamala's more, more Trump is less. Yeah,
- 1:05:39Speaker 2: and also like Brett Baier, she went, she did it.
- 1:05:42Speaker 2: I think there were good moments and there's moments they're exploiting,
- 1:05:45Speaker 2: whether you call it a big win, a medium win,
- 1:05:48Speaker 2: a draw, whatever you want to say about it. It's
- 1:05:51Speaker 2: not going to get tougher than that. It's not going
- 1:05:53Speaker 2: to get harder than that. The combination of questions designed
- 1:05:57Speaker 2: to go for biggest vulnerabilities, the interrupting, all of it was,
- 1:06:01Speaker 2: I think, as tough an interview as she could possibly have.
- 1:06:06Speaker 2: So any logic for that interview to me says, go there.
- 1:06:10Speaker 2: Just fuck it. Let's talk about the Senate. Your colleague
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: from Texas, John Cornyn, leading candidate to succeed Mitch McConnell,
- 1:06:19Speaker 2: whether in majority or minority, vowed to block nominees for
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: Kamala Harris he deems too far left. He said, I'm
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: not going to schedule a vote on some wild eyed
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: radical nominee. So if Kamala Harris wins and the Senate flips,
- 1:06:32Speaker 2: would Kamala Harris be able to replace a Supreme Court
- 1:06:35Speaker 2: justice or even have a cabinet?
- 1:06:37Speaker 7: I don't know the answer to that. And that's why
- 1:06:39Speaker 7: I really don't.
- 1:06:40Speaker 8: And I, you know, I don't like the hypotheticals just
- 1:06:43Speaker 8: because I don't even like to stipulate either a win
- 1:06:45Speaker 8: or a loss on either side. But I do think
- 1:06:48Speaker 8: it illustrates how important it is for us to focus
- 1:06:51Speaker 8: on these Senate races. There is no path to a
- 1:06:55Speaker 8: Kamala Harris cabinet or to a rebalancing of the Supreme
- 1:06:58Speaker 8: Court or to climate action or to codifying Roe or
- 1:07:03Speaker 8: to codifying LGBTQ rights or any economic progress without a
- 1:07:08Speaker 8: Democratic Senate.
- 1:07:10Speaker 7: And I just don't want anybody to get sort of
- 1:07:12Speaker 7: despondent here.
- 1:07:13Speaker 8: We were here two years ago and four years ago.
- 1:07:16Speaker 8: And it was predicted by all the smart people that
- 1:07:20Speaker 8: we were going to lose the Senate. And then we
- 1:07:23Speaker 8: kept the Senate and then we kept the Senate again.
- 1:07:25Speaker 8: And we've passed the biggest climate action in human history.
- 1:07:28Speaker 8: And we've reduced the price of prescription medicine. And we've
- 1:07:31Speaker 8: done all these incredible things only because we won the Senate.
- 1:07:34Speaker 8: And so, yes, the presidency is job one. But, you know,
- 1:07:38Speaker 8: job 1A is making sure Sherrod Brown and John Tester
- 1:07:41Speaker 8: and Tammy Baldwin and Alyssa Slotkin and Bob Casey return
- 1:07:46Speaker 8: to the Senate.
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: So talk to me about Nebraska, Texas, Florida.
- 1:07:52Speaker 8: I'm not going to talk about Nebraska at all. I, um,
- 1:07:55Speaker 8: I don't know very much about it and I don't
- 1:07:58Speaker 8: want that to, you know, polarize. I, what I would
- 1:08:01Speaker 8: say about Texas is that, you know, Beto got very,
- 1:08:05Speaker 8: very close and I think Colin Allred is running a
- 1:08:09Speaker 8: slightly more disciplined campaign, um, and a very well funded campaign. Um,
- 1:08:15Speaker 8: you know, he's very close and does need money. And
- 1:08:19Speaker 8: I think the theory of the case in Florida is
- 1:08:23Speaker 8: basically the same, except that we have reproductive choice on
- 1:08:26Speaker 8: the ballot. And so in a scenario where the turnout
- 1:08:30Speaker 8: projections are slightly undercounting the number of pro-choice individuals showing up,
- 1:08:38Speaker 8: then I think we could either win Florida on the
- 1:08:41Speaker 8: presidential or lose by a little. And then Debbie Moucarcel
- 1:08:45Speaker 8: Powell can win. She's running an extraordinary campaign. But both
- 1:08:49Speaker 8: of those campaigns are campaigns that actually need hard money cash.
- 1:08:53Speaker 8: So if you've got 500 bucks laying around, send the campaign,
- 1:08:57Speaker 8: not some campaign committee, not some super PAC, send the campaign.
- 1:09:00Speaker 8: campaign some money, and they will put it right into
- 1:09:03Speaker 8: communicating with voters.
- 1:09:05Speaker 2: So I really enjoy that. Nebraska's not happening. Sorry I
- 1:09:08Speaker 2: even raised it. Forget about it. Huge mistake on my part.
- 1:09:11Speaker 2: Forget Nebraska. We don't even know what's going on there.
- 1:09:12Speaker 2: It really has nothing to do with us, frankly.
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: Correct.
- 1:09:16Speaker 2: So interesting about Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, these are states
- 1:09:22Speaker 2: with competitive Senate races. They are states that Florida's tougher,
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: but where traditionally we've considered them swing states in the
- 1:09:31Speaker 2: presidential and their states with abortion ballot measures. Two theories here.
- 1:09:37Speaker 2: One is the abortion ballot measures turn out people that
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: care about basic reproductive freedom. The other place like Arizona,
- 1:09:44Speaker 2: you have voters who are going to vote for Ruben Gallego,
- 1:09:47Speaker 2: they're going to vote to protect abortion, and then they
- 1:09:49Speaker 2: are considering whether or not to vote for an anti-choice,
- 1:09:54Speaker 2: anti-abortion president under the feeling that they're balancing, that they're
- 1:09:59Speaker 2: protecting abortion in Arizona anyway. How do you deal with
- 1:10:03Speaker 2: that kind of false sense of comfort?
- 1:10:06Speaker 8: Well, I think the Harris campaign has done a pretty
- 1:10:10Speaker 8: effective job in making it clear that Donald Trump really
- 1:10:13Speaker 8: is going to push for a national abortion ban. And
- 1:10:16Speaker 8: so it won't matter what kind of statutory protections you
- 1:10:20Speaker 8: have at a state by state level. And the problem is,
- 1:10:23Speaker 8: I mean, for us, is that they talk about minimum
- 1:10:26Speaker 8: national standards, right? And that is a ban. That's what
- 1:10:29Speaker 8: they mean. And Donald Trump is going to do that.
- 1:10:32Speaker 8: There's no doubt about it. That is part of Project 2025.
- 1:10:35Speaker 8: I think we've done a very good job of getting
- 1:10:37Speaker 8: the word out and making it clear that you sort
- 1:10:40Speaker 8: of can't have your cake and eat it too and
- 1:10:41Speaker 8: vote for a anti-choice federal candidate and a pro-choice ballot amendment.
- 1:10:46Speaker 8: But the problem is that even if that is something
- 1:10:49Speaker 8: that has gotten through for, say, 80% of the voters,
- 1:10:52Speaker 8: we kind of needed to get through to 95% of
- 1:10:54Speaker 8: the voters in order for us to fully align and
- 1:10:57Speaker 8: have the abortion rights referendum in Arizona win, Gallego win,
- 1:11:02Speaker 8: and Harris win.
- 1:11:04Speaker 2: So I'm losing my mind. You surf. Should I be surfing?
- 1:11:08Speaker 7: Yeah, you should. Sure. Of course. Southern California, hmm.
- 1:11:13Speaker 2: Wow. It's a lot of balance, huh?
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:11:16Speaker 7: I mean, but you're young, you'll be fine. And you know, you, you,
- 1:11:19Speaker 7: you did a reality show that required all kinds of fitness.
- 1:11:21Speaker 7: You'll be fine.
- 1:11:23Speaker 2: Never got to use it. Never got even to never.
- 1:11:25Speaker 2: I have my balance is actually really good. Never got
- 1:11:26Speaker 2: to fucking use it.
- 1:11:28Speaker 5: Oh yeah.
- 1:11:29Speaker 7: I'm sorry. I didn't watch it as you know. Um, no,
- 1:11:31Speaker 7: I know you should, you should surf.
- 1:11:33Speaker 8: But the problem with Southern California surfing is like part of,
- 1:11:36Speaker 8: part of what's good about surfing, like fishing, like hiking,
- 1:11:39Speaker 8: like lots of things is that you kind of can
- 1:11:41Speaker 8: escape the hustle and bustle. Southern California surfing is like
- 1:11:45Speaker 8: as stressful as driving on the freeways because it's just
- 1:11:48Speaker 8: packed and a little bit aggressive.
- 1:11:50Speaker 7: So, you know, those are not my vibes.
- 1:11:53Speaker 2: Honestly, just like using stereotypes about my culture to just
- 1:11:57Speaker 2: putting them together. Oh, we're all sitting in traffic here
- 1:11:59Speaker 2: in California. You and Chris Murphy, Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut,
- 1:12:02Speaker 2: you seem close. Have your hands ever brushed in a
- 1:12:05Speaker 2: weird way?
- 1:12:06Speaker 7: Chris Murphy and I know he's very Northeastern. There's no touching.
- 1:12:12Speaker 2: So that's good. That's interesting. So home stretch, just let's
- 1:12:19Speaker 2: reiterate what you feel like people need to do.
- 1:12:22Speaker 7: Sorry.
- 1:12:22Speaker 2: What?
- 1:12:23Speaker 7: Go ahead.
- 1:12:26Speaker 2: We got, we got, you want people to go to Pennsylvania.
- 1:12:30Speaker 2: We got to get calls in and feet on the
- 1:12:32Speaker 2: ground in Pennsylvania. We need money in Ohio, Florida, Texas, Wisconsin,
- 1:12:38Speaker 2: and we need calls and volunteers in Wisconsin. What else
- 1:12:41Speaker 2: is the other Are there priorities for you right now?
- 1:12:44Speaker 7: That's it.
- 1:12:45Speaker 8: I mean, the other thing I would say is like,
- 1:12:47Speaker 8: don't agonize, organize. I do think that, you know, we're
- 1:12:50Speaker 8: a party that tends to agonize too much. We're a
- 1:12:53Speaker 8: party that doesn't trust happiness. And we're a party that
- 1:12:56Speaker 8: can sometimes talk ourselves out of having the winning momentum. Now,
- 1:13:01Speaker 8: Kamala Harris has done a lot to give us a
- 1:13:04Speaker 8: spring in our step. And it is our obligation. Seriously,
- 1:13:07Speaker 8: it is our obligation to to stuff our phone in
- 1:13:10Speaker 8: a sock drawer and go out there and campaign.
- 1:13:13Speaker 2: Do it people. You know, we know this show is
- 1:13:16Speaker 2: very popular, so I know how many people are listening
- 1:13:19Speaker 2: and I know how many people have signed up at vote,
- 1:13:20Speaker 2: save America. And I don't like the ratio center shots.
- 1:13:23Speaker 2: A lot of people listening to this that haven't done
- 1:13:26Speaker 2: a goddamn thing.
- 1:13:28Speaker 8: Well, I'm not going to scold anybody except to say
- 1:13:31Speaker 8: that here, here's what I would say. Look, I, um,
- 1:13:35Speaker 8: My first race, 26 years ago, I was running for
- 1:13:38Speaker 8: the statehouse and I came out of the primary election
- 1:13:41Speaker 8: kind of bruised.
- 1:13:41Speaker 7: I didn't look super strong.
- 1:13:44Speaker 8: And a mentor of mine said, let's assume you're behind
- 1:13:48Speaker 8: by about a thousand votes and you've got 90 days left.
- 1:13:53Speaker 8: So you got to win over something like 12 people
- 1:13:56Speaker 8: a day. And let's assume you win over one in
- 1:14:00Speaker 8: four people that you talk to.
- 1:14:02Speaker 7: You're not winning over everybody. okay, you got to go
- 1:14:04Speaker 7: talk to about 50 humans every day for the next
- 1:14:07Speaker 7: 90 days, and then you're going to win this thing.
- 1:14:09Speaker 7: And that's what I did.
- 1:14:09Speaker 8: I actually knocked on doors to the point where people
- 1:14:12Speaker 8: told me to stop calling and coming by.
- 1:14:13Speaker 7: I wore my shoes out.
- 1:14:15Speaker 8: To the point where I had to buy a new
- 1:14:17Speaker 8: pair of Rockports from the local Ross on Ward Avenue.
- 1:14:21Speaker 8: And I won by 425 votes. And I would not
- 1:14:24Speaker 8: have won by 425 votes if I stared at a
- 1:14:27Speaker 8: screen wondering if I was going to win by 425 votes.
- 1:14:29Speaker 8: What happens next is, depends on us. It does not
- 1:14:34Speaker 8: depend on events far away. It depends on what we
- 1:14:37Speaker 8: all do, what all of the listeners do. So if
- 1:14:40Speaker 8: you haven't sort of taken the step to either press
- 1:14:42Speaker 8: the donate button or to get on the phone and
- 1:14:45Speaker 8: start calling family and friends or a list provided by
- 1:14:49Speaker 8: the campaign, now's the time.
- 1:14:51Speaker 2: Now's the time. What a great message to end on.
- 1:14:54Speaker 2: And I just also want to say wherever you are,
- 1:14:57Speaker 2: even if you cannot physically get to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or
- 1:15:01Speaker 2: any of these other swing states. You can call into
- 1:15:04Speaker 2: those states. You can donate into those states. And I
- 1:15:06Speaker 2: guarantee you, wherever you are, you are within 90 minutes
- 1:15:10Speaker 2: of a house race that could swing the balance in
- 1:15:14Speaker 2: the house, and you can go knock on doors there.
- 1:15:16Speaker 2: John Tommy and I will be hitting some of the
- 1:15:17Speaker 2: doors in California as well. So go to votesaveamerica.com. The time,
- 1:15:21Speaker 2: it's it. We're at the two-week mark here, people. Phones down,
- 1:15:25Speaker 2: knocking fist up, you know? Senator Brian Schatz, Always so
- 1:15:30Speaker 2: good to see you.
- 1:15:31Speaker 7: It's good to see you too, John. You made me
- 1:15:32Speaker 7: feel better. I'll look forward to watching Survivor for the
- 1:15:35Speaker 7: first time.
- 1:15:36Speaker 2: That's great. Maybe something we can do after we win.
- 1:15:39Speaker 7: Okay, take care.
- 1:15:46Speaker 1: That's our show for today. Wow, what a show. Thank you, Senator.
- 1:15:48Speaker 1: Dan and guest host Alex Wagner of MSNBC Primetime Fame
- 1:15:52Speaker 1: will be back with a new show on Wednesday. Bye, everyone.
- 1:15:55Speaker 2: Wonder who's dick they'll talk about.
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more,
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at cricket.com
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: slash friends. And if you're already doom-scrolling, don't forget to
- 1:16:09Speaker 1: follow us at Pod Save America on Instagram, Twitter, and
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and more. Plus,
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: a review to help boost this episode or spice up
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: the group chat. by sharing it with friends, family, or
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: randos you want in on this conversation. Pod Save America
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: is a Crooked Media production. Our producers are David Toledo
- 1:16:29Speaker 1: and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farrah Safari. Reid
- 1:16:32Speaker 1: Cherlin is our executive editor, and Adrian Hill is our
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: executive producer. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick.
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio support from
- 1:16:42Speaker 1: Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer.
- 1:16:47Speaker 1: Madeline Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt
- 1:16:49Speaker 1: DeGroat is our head of production. Andy Taft is our
- 1:16:52Speaker 1: executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones,
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: Phoebe Bradford, Joseph Dutra, Ben Hefcote, Mia Kelman, Molly Lobel,
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: Kiril Pallaviv, and David Toles.