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CFB Week 4 Picks! · Fade or Follow

• Jacob Bunce: All right, welcome back to Fader Follow. ⁓ Grant and Bunts. ⁓ we are ecstatic. It's Saturday morning, and we're gonna go through kind of the slate fucking great weekend of games, too. I mean, so many ranked ⁓ matchups, probably gonna start with the Texas Tennessee game, but just if you're ready, you know, get your Doordash out, get your favorite blanket, pillow, whatever. You know, we're gonna have ourselves a day. ⁓ Grant, say hi to folks. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, it's good morning everyone. We had do we have our first real loaded slate of this of the year. Six we got six ranked matchups, ranked on ranked. ⁓ everyone's pl ⁓ people are starting to actually play real teams instead of Balsack State, so I'm ready to get after it. Let's let's win some money. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. And honestly too, I mean we're you know, we didn't bet on this game last night. It was more so just a just a watcher, but that Indiana Northwestern game definitely deserves a a quick little shout out. I know Grant was sweating the over, so I don't know if you want to touch on that before we get into anything. Grant Nonnemacher: Yes. Yeah. Yes. Yeah, so yeah, so that game was ab two zero at the end of the first quarter. ⁓ and then it was twelve nothing at the end of the first half. And so it was my total was forty nine and a half. So twelve no twelve nothing at half. I don't know if you bet a lot of totals, but when you have twelve points at half and you need fifty, you're not feeling that good, right? So Jacob Bunce: No. No. Grant Nonnemacher: ⁓ so I kind of let it go and then I I'm turning the game back on in the fourth quarter and both teams are just going band for band in the in the fourth and the they end up and Northwestern is they score the Indiana scores a touchdown to go up to get put the get to forty nine somehow and the two minutes left in the fourth quarter. ⁓ Indi forty nine and a half, so Indiana g so Northwestern ⁓ my Jacob Bunce: What was your over under it was forty nine and a half? Grant Nonnemacher: My this lighting is crazy. Jacob Bunce: Well, it accentuates your face, so it makes you look great. Honestly, when I first saw your background I thought it was like a fake one, but it yeah, it looks Grant Nonnemacher: Okay. All right. Okay. No, this is my no, is my this is my lounge. Yeah. ⁓ but yeah, so the yeah, so my the Indiana scores to put the total at forty nine. My buddy had the total at forty eight and a half, so he already hit and I'm like sitting there with a forty nine and a half ticket in shambles. So I'm like, I there's no way I win. But they Indiana didn't Northwestern didn't need a field goal and they still had a time to go down, get a quick field goal, go for the onside, then try to score. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. No big deal. Grant Nonnemacher: So that strategy was playing out in my head. I'm like, all right, that's how it's gonna win. And so sure enough, they hit a few chunk plays, get down into field goal range, kick a field goal on second down to and I'm like, if you miss this field goal, I'm gonna be in sh so much piss because it was like it everything played out exactly how it needed to for this to happen. And he the kid ends up drilling it. So it worked and that but unfortunately, ⁓ for real life They did not get the onside and Indiana pulled it out, but ⁓ it was a very it was an electric sweat. There were thirty points, thirty points in that fourth quarter. Jacob Bunce: Was that was that at Indiana or was that at Northwestern's new stadium? Honestly, can't even remember. I'll test ⁓ Grant Nonnemacher: I think it was in Bloomington. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, yeah, I think you're right. I'll test Dean though. He was I think he was at that game. ⁓ 'cause you know the argument is as long as time is like, why do you kick the field wheel when you need a touchdown? It's harder to get the touchdown, but like it I I see both ways. So I'm glad they did it so you got your overt. Yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, no electric Yeah, I'll electric Exactly, yeah. I'm glad they did in that order. Yeah, I'm glad they didn't go for the touchdown first 'cause that would have because I guarantee you they would've A Aiden Childs would have just chucked it out of the end zone and I would have been in piss. But what are you gonna do? But great hit. Yes, sir. Yeah, we move. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, well, you hit. So good ⁓ good win moving into the weekend. ⁓ all right, let's go ahead and start with Texas at Tennessee. ⁓ Texas is favored four and a half. I know this line has been moving around a lot, but it's it's definitely going more towards individuals, I think, taking Tennessee, which, you know, I I I I know we looked at it ⁓ originally, but I mean at the end of the day, like Texas is still the number one teen in the country. ⁓ I know they beat Ohio State, you know, and a win's a win. They played not that great. I think this is a bounce back game for them. Both teams are 3-0. Tennessee, funny enough, has actually failed to cover seven straight home games, believe it or not. ⁓ Texas hasn't been that great against the spread either. But if if I'm picking a team that can't cover, I'm gonna lean Texas. So, you know, I think Texas wins, I think they're more physical. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, absolutely. Jacob Bunce: ⁓ this is kind of those this is, you know, when Tennessee always has the eyes on them and then they let their their fan base down in my opinion. So ⁓ I could see Texas winning by like ten. Grant Nonnemacher: Fresh. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I think ⁓ I think Ta Texas w played around with fire last week. They did not look good for the first three quarters of that Ohio State game. They got they didn't they earned that fourth quarter. They played their asses off and they brought it back and won it on top of some errors from Ohio State. But they figured something out in that fourth quarter and I think they are gonna come out with a little bit more fire this week and get started out a little bit faster and Fais on Brandon be for Tennessee, just freshman quarterback, like not quite ready for the spotlight just yet. I think Arch has been in this spot already and I think he's ⁓ ready to kinda continue to establish himself. So I think Texas take care takes care of business here. I think Tennessee can still be good and I think Fizon Brandon's got talent, but I give me Texas in this game by a touchdown or more. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, I think we're aligned on on that one for sure. ⁓ the next one, Florida at Ole Miss. ⁓ I think they're at Ole Miss. Yeah, they're at the swamp. ⁓ this I mean, I talk about a trap. Like I I I originally looked at this line and saw Florida minus three and a half, and I'm like, what am I looking at? Like, did I not just see Ole Miss beat LSU? ⁓ insane. So Grant, why don't you break this one down first? Grant Nonnemacher: Talk about a Yeah, talk Yeah, this game has had me in a pretzel all week, dude. Like this g I've looked at this I I've looked at this game up wa up ways, down ways, sideways. and yeah, no, like this like last week was the biggest emotional spot you could ever have in like it felt like that was like the most emotionally charged game in a decade, right? Like it like that like the set the the setup on that game was insane. So and these and Jacob Bunce: All week, dude. At least, yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: And like sometimes NFL, like you don't get those emotions as much. But the moment matters a lot to these college kids and I think like they are going to be the Ole Miss is gonna be they're still gonna be ready for this game, but there's n like they played their out of their absolute minds and the everything they had done for the last ten months was leading up to that game again in against L S U. And I think now that they have to go to the swamp and And now they have to play aga this Florida team's playing out ahead of the ahead of schedule as well. John Summerall has these guys balling right now and I think ⁓ as much as they as much as it scares the shit out of me to fade Trinidad Chambliss, I think in this spot. I th I think overall, like you're you're you you kinda just you ca yeah. Yeah y yeah, we're might be set goes before they're doing this. If Trinidad Chambliss throws for four hundred yards today and five touchdowns, we ap hand up, we apologize. Th but Jacob Bunce: Yeah, are we sick in the head for doing that? I don't know. Are we sick O's? Grant Nonnemacher: We do think this is the right side of the to be on. But and also the thing that's finally swung it for me is Kawan Lacey, their star running back, is doubtful for this game. So I think ⁓ I think and ma and I and I think in a ma the letdown spot of the century or this the emotional letdown of that game last week is ⁓ you're he's gotta take Florida here and I think he's gotta be comfortable with it, even though it's scary 'cause this is a this is a scary, scary spot 'cause Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Yeah, massive, massive. Grant Nonnemacher: Chambliss is the real deal. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, well, I mean, remember the the name of our show is Fade or Follow. So if you wanna you know, if we if if you think me and Grant maybe bumped our bumped our head on on the kitchen counter and you wanna go ahead and take Old Miss, like feel free. But yeah, I mean I have no notes to that, Grant. I mean, I think, you know, you just have to take it and and watch a a very good game. ⁓ so, all right, let's move on. ⁓ we have Texas AM plus ten and a half at LSU. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, y yeah fade this, yeah, please. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: Honestly, I think this might be one of my more favorite numbers of the group. ⁓ obviously LSU just had a big loss, but AM still ranked and this is a double digit spread and in an SEC, a ranked SEC matchup, you know what mean? And the I was looking at a lot of different projections and and LSU is really, I mean, a lot of places think they're only gonna win by a couple of points. ⁓ I think they're probably gonna win by a touchdown, to be honest with you. But ten and a half just seems way too much for me. ⁓ AM is still a great team. LSU is definitely looking for a bounce back. I think it's gonna be a slower start to the game, to be honest with you. and then maybe take off a little bit at halftime. This could be like one of those sneaky over bets too, but I'm just gonna take the points and again watch another really great ⁓ ranked matchup. Grant Nonnemacher: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yep. Absolutely. Yeah, this game like you talk about coming off a bad loss. A and ⁓ getting dicked down by Kentucky at home last week at home was also shot both of these teams coming off really, really bad losses. Well, L S Us not as much. It just was the big game, so it was a bad it was a bit Yeah, yeah. They they fought back, yeah. They fought back. Yeah, but they fought back. But anyway, ⁓ but Jacob Bunce: Yeah. They just had a horrible start, you know, like their start was atrocious. Yeah, they did. Mm-hmm. Grant Nonnemacher: T A and ⁓ coming off a bad loss against Kentucky and now you're getting like so they're playing they're gonna be pissed off. You're getting you now you're getting ten and a half points in your pocket with a pissed off group that people this team was a top fifteen team at the start of the year. So I think you I think you take you lay the you get the ten and a half and like honestly like everyone's talking about Marcel Reed like being kind of mid right now. Sam Levitt it n outside of a few like Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: plays with his feet, he did not throw the ball that well last week either. And yeah, so if you're getting a b if you're getting mid and mid, like, give me ten and a half points. Like what the fuck are we doing here? So that's where I'm at with it. So I think and I think up Yeah, exa yeah, exactly. And and I'm not yeah, so and honestly I think like like honestly, if you look at L S U's three games at this point, they beat the shit out of Clemson who's outside of winning last night has d did not come out well. Jacob Bunce: I was gonna say also kind of mid. The ranked mid off game. Grant Nonnemacher: They struck they s kind of struggled against the LA Tech and then they lost to Ole Miss. So like outside of that win against Clemson, they have not been that incredible as yet. And also just Lane Kiffin has historically struggled in ranked matchups. And we did not give enough credence to that ⁓ last week, but ⁓ our bad. We're we now we're we're gonna lean into that this week, I think. ⁓ I think you get laid. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Honestly, like I I I would still ⁓ you give me the game ten times, I'm taking LSU ten times, you know, I don't know. I just think if they even had a ten percent better of a start and got a field goal, it would have been such a different I mean, at halftime they were they were trailing by so much. So, ⁓ it almost gave me Texas Ohio State vibes. Like I I thought Old Miz was gonna lose in the most humiliating fashion and then that just would've made for the greatest, funniest story in press conference in the last decade. Grant Nonnemacher: I thought about LSU. Yeah. Yeah, same. I know. I'm not yeah. I'm yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah, I know. Yeah, no. And well and that well instead we got to see instead we had to see Sad Lane Kiff and it'll be like Sad Lane Kiff. ⁓ Yeah, when he see ⁓ when he when he gets humbled, he's not as exciting when I like when he's like cocky and talking shit. But but he gets humbled a lot, so he's gotten humbled like four or five he's gotten fired like five times in his career, so he's been humbled all he's been humbled a lot, but he bounces you y yeah, he's a resilient motherfucker, I'll give him that to Jacob Bunce: But ⁓ we were robbed of it and that's fine. What are you gonna do? No, he's b he's kind of boring. Yeah. He's used to this position. Yeah. ⁓ all right, Oregon USC. So Grant, I'll let you start with this as everyone who has been following us knows the number one thing that Grant loves and we'll bet on if he sees a line at forty or excuse me, eighty two and a half, he's taking the over. Grant, go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, all right. Let's move on. Yep. Points. We are betting the over. No, we are ⁓ taking the over at sixty one and a half in this game. The ⁓ Jacob Bunce: Yeah, sixty-one and a half. And we're leaning. I'll just say before you do your thing. And I also just like gut check, like, this is another weird, like, cause Oregon has looked like absolute shit. So everyone's like, ⁓ USC, USC, USC. Side bet, ⁓ maybe a half unit, Oregon minus three and a half. But our our main bet is the over. So ⁓ go ahead, Grant. Grant Nonnemacher: Yes indeed. Yeah, no, the ⁓ the thing that both of these teams ha the both of these teams are need a win badly and both desperately. Yeah, b both of these got Lanning and Riley are both in a must win spot. So they're both gonna be pulling out all the tricks in the book, ⁓ all the trips in their bag, everything that they've come up with. and I think also both of these defenses have not been their s their strength. ⁓ Jacob Bunce: Desperately. Grant Nonnemacher: I think Oregon for as good as they're supposed to be on defense. They have not looked like they gave up thirty nine to an Oklahoma State team that it granted has pieces, but they did not they lost to Tulsa the week before. ⁓ they s they did shut out Portland State last week, but who the fuck is Portland State? And USC has been giving up yardage and points all season long and I think in both of these offenses are gonna find their groove and I think ⁓ this game is just gonna be a shootout and it's gonna be it's gonna look like an old Pac twelve game. If you guys remember the Pac twelve, it's gonna be it's gonna be looking like one of those games like back in the day. So give us give me the over in this game and honestly ⁓ part of me's just betting this 'cause I wanna see w see a fun game, but I do think that like the schematically this game should this game's gonna go. I feel like this game's gonna find a way over. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Ha ha. Yeah. Well I mean the Yeah, I mean the beauty of the over is that we don't need to correctly identify which team is gonna win ⁓ in this in this super heavyweight matchup. So I mean it's it's truly a coin flip. So let's just root for both teams to score. ⁓ Grant Nonnemacher: Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. It's just ⁓ for fun stuff to happen. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, so we'll take Oregon USC over sixty-one and a half. ⁓ our last main game that we're kind of touching on we have a couple honorable mentions too. ⁓ but the last game that we're gonna ⁓ really kind of dive a little bit deeper into is Oklahoma and Georgia. ⁓ Oklahoma's plus thirteen and a half. And ⁓ Grant, what was that stat that you gave before the show you were telling me about Kirby Smart and and Big Spreads? Grant Nonnemacher: Is indeed. So yeah, yes. Yeah, so Kirby Smart coming off games where he covered as a big spread and they covered as f twenty four and a half point favorites last week against Arkansas. And so coming off big win coming off covering as a double digit favorite, Kirby Smart is one in fourteen ATS the following week. So I think one in fourteen, just to reiterate, that is not good. so I th And I think you're also getting a massive buy low spot with this ⁓ you're getting a massive buy low spot with this Oklahoma team. They have never b this their stock has never been lower. They have looked like shit the entire season. and I think the combin and so I and i if we're gambling like we're trading stocks, like you gotta buy some Oklahoma stock right now. It is never it has never been lower at this point. So ⁓ I think Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: You get you're getting f two touchdowns in a team that but on a team that has nowhere to go but up and a team that also has been riding high with Georgia. Like they if you've been paying attention to Georgia this year, they've been an absolute buzzsaw. So you'd think a team that is only you'd think a team that has looked as good as Georgia and a team that's looked as bad as Oklahoma would be getting ⁓ the spread would be a little bit wider than fourteen or thirteen and a half. and I th I think you'd you'd like last week they were laying Jacob Bunce: Yeah, yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: over three touchdowns. So this week's only laying two, that says to me that Oklahoma might have s might have some ⁓ game here in this matchup. So yeah, give us Oklahoma plus fourteen. John Mateir has to be better. He's he's too good of he has he's has too much talent to be as bad as he's looked this season. Jacob Bunce: It's been horrendous, dude. I mean, obviously was rooting for them against the Michigan game, but like in general, I mean, just if I was a an Oklahoma fan, I would have been so frustrated watching that game. They had every chance to keep it close or to be in the lead and he just shit right down his leg. it is definitely a buy low spot. This is like getting NVIDIA at at at fifty bucks in my opinion. ⁓ so Grant Nonnemacher: Yes. Yeah, absolutely. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, Oklahoma plus thirteen and a half. Georgia's gonna win this game. I don't think Oklahoma will pull the upset, but I think it's just too much points. ⁓ back to back weeks. Yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah. No. Yeah. Keep it within two keep within two touchdowns. Yeah, absolutely. Keep within two touchdowns. And also ⁓ Nate Frazier is also banged up. I'm not sure if he's out or anything, but I do think I do believe he is banged. Okay. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: I think he's playing. Yeah, I think he's playing, but he is banked up. nonetheless will, you know, probably stop or or get in his head or or whatever. It'll definitely impact how he's playing. So ⁓ the two honorable mentions, just real quick that we can touch on, ⁓ Michigan and Iowa, and then Mississippi State. So against ⁓ Missous. So, you know, starting with Michigan, like just you know, obviously everything in me wants to take. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah. Yeah, that's Jacob Bunce: Iowa plus five and a half, but if you take the emotional side of this out, ⁓ I mean, this is probably one of the most public bets is Iowa plus five and a half. I think this is gonna be a rock fight, and I just think Michigan being at home, their physicality, they're probably gonna force Iowa to play from behind. And that is not when they excel. ⁓ we'll be probably betting this game. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah. And also I Jacob Bunce: Go ahead. Grant Nonnemacher: No, yeah, no, and Michigan's really good at s just sitting on the ball. Neither team is good at coming from behind. So whichever team gets up ten first might just win out. Might just win. But yeah, you're absolutely Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I mean it's it's it's it's a f it's a line that I mean but Vegas is begging you to take plus five and a half. So our buddy said this, I'm gonna we're gonna quote on like we're not we're not taking Michigan, we're we're fading the public here. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah. Right. Absolutely, absolutely. And the thing is that you've and we've also seen Yeah. Yes. Absolutely. Yeah percent. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. The other yeah, the other thing that he said too the other thing that he said to me that resonated was everyone's been hammering Iowa all week and the line has not moved. Like Vegas knows something on this. Like why hasn't the line come down at all from five and a half if everyone's hammering Iowa? So, yeah. Jacob Bunce: Even though he's taking Michigan 'cause he's a Michigan fan, but like, you know, I like the quote regardless. He can say what he wants, I don't believe him. Yeah. Yeah, that's another great point. So, ⁓ and then Mississippi State, this is just like pure I mean, right when we talked about the game, you're like, I love Mississippi State. Mississippi State minus six. ⁓ so you know, I think Taylor has been ridiculous. I think, you know, he's gonna continue to be Mizzou. You know, this is just another one of those games that's it's funny, like it's it's a ranked matchup, but it's not really getting any attention. ⁓ it's a night game too, so I think it's like seven forty five Eastern. But I'm excited to watch it. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, it's so good. Mm-hmm. Jacob Bunce: ⁓ we're gonna take Mississippi State minus six and that's kind of our our, you know, two honorable mention games. But I don't know, Grant, if you had anything else you wanted to kinda touch on with that matchup. Grant Nonnemacher: Yep. He's a beast. Yeah, I do have a yeah, I just Camario Taylor, that's all I got. He's he's the man, so that's all it I got I do have a few more ⁓ bets fr on my card. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Dude, he has eleven t he has eleven touchdowns already this season. Over a thousand yards. It's insane. Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah. No, I do yeah. No, he's he's he's a sick he's he's a sicko. Like honestly, he if he if he doesn't if he wants to leave, he can get yeah, he's gonna if yeah, he's if he wants to get a bag next year, he can absolutely like take someone for all their like you to he can sign a Bryce Underwood, sign a sort of NIL deal. Someone's gonna pay him if he does if he if he doesn't get paid in Mississippi State. ⁓ I do ha I do have a few ⁓ other honorable men just Jacob Bunce: He's leaving the SCC. Grant Nonnemacher: few other bets on my car that I'd like to run through. Jacob Bunce: So I don't know anyone out there ⁓ listens to part of my take, you know, free shout out, you know. And ⁓ I've been listening forever. Big Cat loved the guy. He'll bet 55 games in a weekend, and you're looking at the only other guy, and this the only other sicko on the planet that bets 55 to 55 things in a weekend. So when Grant says I have a few other, it's a little bit more. We have our main plays and then we have kind of this like we love gambling. So yeah. Grant Nonnemacher: Yes. Good this is our full card the full card. Yes. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. And you know, and obviously too, like being an Ohio State fan, I do think they beat Illinois. I you know, if I had to pick, I think they're gonna cover, but ⁓ just emotionally I'm probably not gonna bet on that game. I'm just gonna let them do their thing and ⁓ hopefully watch them yeah, late belt to ask to to Illinois. So but go ahead, Grant. Grant Nonnemacher: Just leave it alone. Yeah. Beat b lay b lay belt. Yeah, so ⁓ Cam Coleman, anytime touchdown score, UCLA money line, Oklahoma State, West Virginia over fifty seven and a half, Missou Missouri State versus SMU over fifty nine and a half, NC State minus fourteen, two leg Parlay, Wayne Knight on UCLA anytime touchdown score, and Auburn money line. So a few other side plays for the t a few other side plays for the kids out there. ⁓ yeah. I think that's just ⁓ yeah, th those are some of the other plays that I really liked and I there there those aren't in the same tier as some of the games that we t want to talk about and really get dig into, but I still think there's a lot of value on the board this weekend and Jacob Bunce: What about what about ⁓ what about ball state versus Kent State, dude? Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, not ⁓ just give me the under. No my I've no I've honestly I haven't seen a minus sign next to Kent State in a millennium, dude. That's crazy. ⁓ Jacob Bunce: Kent State's favorite three in that one. Well they're playing ball state. Yeah, the over under is fifteen and a half. I was looking at the board and I'm like, what the fuck? Grant Nonnemacher: Yeah, that's so funny. All right. ⁓ yeah, I think that's all I really got at this point. ⁓ I do gotta kinda get moving here. So do wanna I'm gonna Jacob Bunce: Yeah, no, appreciate you guys ⁓ tuning in, obviously. ⁓ I'll tweet out our our picks as well. ⁓ our main picks, our honorable mentions, and then I'll try and get the laundry list that Grant just ⁓ put out there as well. So ⁓ thanks for tuning in. Like the video, please subscribe. We appreciate it. ⁓ have yourselves a great Saturday and we will ⁓ be seeing you later for NFL Sunday day Sunday, so thank you. Grant Nonnemacher: Yes, indeed. Yes. Thank you, everyone. Have great day. Bye all.