Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Cattle Under Pressure As Grains Rebound

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Cattle Under Pressure As Grains Rebound · AG Bull

0:11
SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
0:12
SPEAKER_00: Tom Gersafi, AgBO Media, Eggbull Trading.
0:14
SPEAKER_00: I am in Valparaiso, Indiana today.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: I am up in my living room.
0:19
SPEAKER_00: We totally gutted the basement.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: We're working on multiple camera angles, all types of new technology, and we made a mess down there.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: So I am on one of America's finest plastic folding tables from Valparaiso, Indiana.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Jim is waiting in the back.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: We have a lot of exciting things we want to tell you, but a lot of important things.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: The markets are not open.
0:40
SPEAKER_00: It's 3:30 Central time.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: The Chicago Border Trade CME group will open at 5 o'clock central.
0:46
SPEAKER_00: There's going to be some fireworks.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: Without predicting price, let's just say this things did not get better in the Middle East this weekend.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: And unfortunately, we lost some brave men and women.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: And all our men and women are at risk here as conflicts build.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: So on a very serious tone, things are changing quick over there.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: Jim's going to talk about it.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: It's going to affect the markets.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: That's why we're here.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: We'll have this out to you by the time the markets open.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: Of course, if you ever want to talk markets with me, call me.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: 1855-737 Farm.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: That phone rings right to Eggville Trading.
1:20
SPEAKER_00: Let's bring Jim in here.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: In a minute, here we'll bring him in.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: And we got a lot of serious, exciting things to talk to you about.
2:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we're back at it.
2:07
SPEAKER_01: We've got a rabble rousing show with lots to talk about.
2:11
SPEAKER_01: So let's get going, Tommy.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: I feel like a much serious tone today because looking at my phone, there was a lot of I'm not used to seeing my phone saying several service members died.
2:23
SPEAKER_00: And we'll probably get to that in a little bit, huh?
2:25
SPEAKER_00: We will.
2:25
SPEAKER_01: We will.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's talk markets as we always do.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
2:30
SPEAKER_01: Look at the uh week, mostly an up week.
2:33
SPEAKER_01: It's uh except for cattle, but corn up a little over six cents.
2:37
SPEAKER_01: Soybeans, up over 12.
2:39
SPEAKER_01: Uh, meal was steady.
2:41
SPEAKER_01: Uh soybean oil.
2:42
SPEAKER_01: We'll get into reasons why on that had a very wheat on the bullish side.
2:47
SPEAKER_01: Look at wheat.
2:47
SPEAKER_01: Wheat led the way, and it that's called a combination of reasons, but uh the re the Russia-Ukraine war is getting into the grain complex of both countries and especially the infrastructure affecting a a third of their exports in in Russia.
3:06
SPEAKER_01: Cotton had a down week despite some weather problems with that cotton crop.
3:10
SPEAKER_01: So I guess it was the the it could just been the funds, but cattle, and we're going to expand on cattle now, but they they had I think 15 consecutive days down, Tommy.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've heard at the you know, again, we do that conference call every day at uh Nesvik, Mr.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: Mike Santa's at conference call.
3:29
SPEAKER_00: And if you if you don't get it, folks, I I wish you did.
3:32
SPEAKER_00: This is for subscriber only before the bell.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: But Mike Sands has been talking about this, and we all knew and thought cattle could come down hard someday.
3:42
SPEAKER_00: You know what's interesting?
3:43
SPEAKER_00: This has been the most gentle 15-day sell-off ever.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: Not no limit downs, no, you you're locked, you can't get out.
3:51
SPEAKER_00: Steady, steady opens, goes higher, and then all of a sudden, late in the day, drifts off.
3:57
SPEAKER_00: A lot of short covering rallies.
3:59
SPEAKER_00: You know, Jim, bear markets can have vicious, vicious short covering rallies.
4:04
SPEAKER_00: Some of the largest market rallies ever are when the market's really short.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: We have a short covering rally.
4:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, let's go to the second one that explains we've got a cattle and beef market scoreboard.
4:15
SPEAKER_00: Uh, you really brought the heat here.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: You want to talk a lot about cattle today, and there must be a reason why.
4:20
SPEAKER_01: Well, when the market I go where the market is from a news perspective, uh, whether it's higher or lower, and in this case, it's lower.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: August live cattle futures were down almost 11 bucks for the week, 15 straight lower closes.
4:32
SPEAKER_01: The feeder cattle futures are the lowest since early June.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: They were down almost nine bucks.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: Feeder cattle index is backing off records, and then you got your cash cattle.
4:43
SPEAKER_01: Now, the cash is way up relative to futures, and that's a defining element here.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: We're going to see does cash come down or the futures go up here.
4:53
SPEAKER_01: Dress grade trade, dressed trade is from 385.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: That was midweek, a choice box beef cutout.
5:01
SPEAKER_01: Demand test is underway.
5:03
SPEAKER_01: So I think this will be an interesting week, Tommy, for the for the cattle market.
5:08
SPEAKER_01: Uh, federally inspected slaughter is down versus year ago.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: But again, we've got another chart for for you viewers there.
5:16
SPEAKER_01: One of the reasons why cattle has gone down, uh, even though we've known this news, but they're starting to focus on yeah, they're imports.
5:25
SPEAKER_01: Three straight records 23, 24, 25, actually 26, another record, four, four.
5:33
SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry, 2023 wasn't a record.
5:35
SPEAKER_01: So beginning in 2024, we had record imports.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: And look at that, it we're we're making fairly high records on the import side.
5:46
SPEAKER_01: And we have the our last chart on cattle shows the imports by supplier.
5:51
SPEAKER_01: Look at Argentina's 4.3 percent of total beef imports, they're up a hundred, almost 114 percent.
6:00
SPEAKER_01: Mexico is almost 12 percent of the total.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: Uh, they're up uh 20, a little over 27 percent.
6:07
SPEAKER_01: Australia, Canada are are also up.
6:10
SPEAKER_01: New Zealand and Brazil is down.
6:13
SPEAKER_01: So that that's one of the reasons why cattle have that sledgehammer uh on on the on the bear side, Tommy.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: And I see Dr.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: Daryl Peel's name on here.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: When I had uh I had hosted a few shows and interviewed him, he is he reminds me of you.
6:28
SPEAKER_00: He's just calm, brings the fa facts, throws the fastball, unemotional.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: He's he's been in this business for a long time, hasn't he?
6:37
SPEAKER_01: Yes, that's why I quote him.
6:38
SPEAKER_01: I trust his charts, okay, and his data.
6:41
SPEAKER_01: He double checked, he's a good statistician and a and an analyst.
6:45
SPEAKER_01: And then we're just not all cattle, we're not all hat here.
6:49
SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're gonna go through some of the other market factors because there's some policy in there.
6:53
SPEAKER_01: You have that one up, Tommy?
6:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
6:55
SPEAKER_00: Number two, where yep, market factors.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: Want me to read them off to you or can you see them?
7:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, I can see them.
7:01
SPEAKER_01: The funds came storming back into grains, and Tommy has been saying that because they really liquidated it, took them weeks, and that's why we had those looks like seasonal, maybe, maybe seasonal lows for corn and soybeans.
7:16
SPEAKER_01: So we're we're gonna we're gonna test that.
7:18
SPEAKER_01: But they came storming back into grains and they headed for the exits in cattle, so it wasn't I I I do have a little color to add to that.
7:26
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: Just because it's never happened doesn't mean it can't.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: It's not often we make our our lows for the year in June, but it is possible now with a continued rally that we made a pretty good bottom down there.
7:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's also not not often that the funds get in as big as they did as early as they did, and then sell it and get short before the growing season.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: And everyone could see it from a million miles away.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: Think of what we showed you folks a few minutes ago when we showed you what a weak the Kansas City re wheat had, and those fundamentals have been bullish for the last three months.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: How that market sold off as hard as it did is because the funds well, we had harvest pressure in wheat, yeah.
8:11
SPEAKER_01: So you can you can explain that.
8:12
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, but uh there there are some fundamentals, and like you said, June is usually, you know, you just not not a bullish month, uh, typically, but uh at least the charts, okay.
8:23
SPEAKER_01: I'm more of a chart person.
8:25
SPEAKER_01: Uh charts tend to signal, you know, that the lows may be in.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna see.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna test all this in the next few weeks.
8:33
SPEAKER_01: Uh, soybeans, we had China buying, they're continuing to buy, and they're gonna be buying it, looks like uh from a 900,000 ton to a million metric tons uh a week, you know.
8:45
SPEAKER_01: So that's a lot there.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: And over the weekend, our good friend Tyne Morgan was MC'd an event in Iowa in which former U.S.
8:55
SPEAKER_01: trade rep Bob Leidhuser, she interviewed him on stage, and we've got a long story with tables and fancy charts, and from basis what Tyne uh reported, and I expanded on it from an analytical perspective.
9:10
SPEAKER_01: But Bob Leidheiser, he was the trade rep under Trump's first administration, and by the way, Jamison Greer, our current U.S.
9:18
SPEAKER_01: trade rep, was Leidheiser's chief of staff.
9:21
SPEAKER_00: Oh, really?
9:22
SPEAKER_00: So, yes, and yeah, some guy right here, Jamison Greer.
9:26
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and Greg Dowd, our good friend, he was in USTR during the Trump administration, first Trump administration.
9:34
SPEAKER_01: He had dinner, Tyne tells me, the night before Leitheiser spoke.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: A little inside of a Rob Leitheiser picture.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, any informal United States trade rep, right there.
9:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, ready reddish hair should have.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's very smart guy.
9:51
SPEAKER_01: Now, Leitheiser actually uh said what I've been saying in my speeches, Tommy.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: He's probably been listening to you.
9:58
SPEAKER_01: Well, I know I'd I listened to him, but I I'd always like confirmation of my analysis in which he said, Look, China, they're gonna go, they're gonna get they want the status quo with the U.S.
10:12
SPEAKER_01: and Trump throughout his administration, but don't count on China that much past 2028 when after Trump's second term ends, and because they're just in a holding pattern now.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: And the reason Leitheiser thinks they're going to fulfill on their purchase commitments the$17 billion uh pulpoury of U.S.
10:34
SPEAKER_01: foreign products for the next three, it looks like calendar year prorated for 2026, and the uh hefty amounts of U.S.
10:43
SPEAKER_01: soybeans under it looks like a marketing year basis.
10:48
SPEAKER_01: We don't have the 100% guarantee on that, but it looks like it is the case.
10:52
SPEAKER_01: He thinks that they're gonna fulfill on that because of Trump.
10:55
SPEAKER_01: He knows that Trump will come back at him, and he's got a couple more years left in his administration, and that's why he thinks China's gonna fulfill that.
11:04
SPEAKER_01: That's on the soybean side.
11:06
SPEAKER_01: We had soybean oil, and that was fueled in large part by trade policy.
11:12
SPEAKER_01: The White House announced and USTR announced that July the 22nd this week, they're gonna slap 20-25% tariffs uh on Brazil.
11:23
SPEAKER_01: Now, a number of commodities were exempted, uh, including coffee.
11:27
SPEAKER_01: So that was good for me because I'm a coffee drinker, but not tallow.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: Now, why is that important for soybean oil?
11:35
SPEAKER_01: Well, we imported a chunk of Brazilian tallow.
11:39
SPEAKER_01: So if that's going to be cut off, not basically cut off because of the 25% makes it uncompetitive, that means a more draw on US uh uh uh you know veg oil uh products, or maybe some imports from Canada.
11:55
SPEAKER_01: I think this is uh also supportive to canola uh uh oil, but that's where you have to watch trade policy from a market perspective.
12:05
SPEAKER_01: Now, I had a couple of traders say, Well, we knew this uh the night before oil took off late late in the week, Tommy, as you well know.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: Why didn't it react right away?
12:16
SPEAKER_00: Why was that?
12:17
SPEAKER_01: Well, because traders they really don't like policy, they don't they don't like it, and they they have to connect dots sometimes, and not saying they're slow, but they're not fast either.
12:30
SPEAKER_01: And it took a while to the logic to gel, and boy, uh, and this is gonna grow as a market factor.
12:39
SPEAKER_01: Now we can always change that 25%, so it can go the other way if there's negotiations between the U.S.
12:45
SPEAKER_01: and Brazil.
12:46
SPEAKER_01: So I'm put that out as a caution flag.
12:49
SPEAKER_01: But that's soybean oil, corn it's demand.
12:53
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you've got uh USDA is too low on their export number, so we're gonna see increases in U.S.
13:00
SPEAKER_01: corn uh forecast by USDA.
13:03
SPEAKER_01: And right now, here's another kicker that I'll say a little bit more at the end of the program on positives we see in the ag complex.
13:10
SPEAKER_01: But USDA has, I don't think they have any US corn to China in their demand numbers.
13:19
SPEAKER_01: So I'm telling you, if they if we get confirmation, we have to get confirmation of Chinese purchases of corn, that'll be reflected in follow-on WASDI uh reports.
13:30
SPEAKER_01: That's the supply and demand report from USDA.
13:34
SPEAKER_01: Now they could adjust some other other demand factors, feed use, etc., but that's going to be a potentially bullish element in the months ahead.
13:43
SPEAKER_01: Wheat, there was the leader of the uh grains.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: And over the decades that I've covered uh markets as a reporter from a policy and a market perspective, usually wheat's a follower.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: It's a residual crop, you know, it's grown everywhere in the world, and it's grown in every state in the US except New England, where the biggest crop there are Democrats, okay?
14:08
SPEAKER_01: But Russia and Ukraine are warring against each other.
14:13
SPEAKER_01: We've known that for over four years, but now with the use of Ukrainian drones, it's getting deeper into Russia and is getting into their port activity, affecting a significant chunk of the Russian weed exports.
14:28
SPEAKER_01: We've known this, Tommy, for the last few weeks and we've covered it in depth, but it's starting to pick up because traders know that these things get settled or are don't have a long shelf life.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: This is expanding, it's not it's not decreasing.
14:45
SPEAKER_01: So that uh that's a continued element, and we'll have some other reasons why at the end of the show on wheat, European some estimates on European wheat.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: It's like a perfect storm, Jim.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: It is when you get into that.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: I'll let you keep going on this list.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: This is a healthy list, but I just thinking about it because I uh as I'm mentally getting prepared for tonight's open, like, man, wheat's bounced a lot.
15:06
SPEAKER_00: Can it be bought again tonight?
15:07
SPEAKER_00: Can we on the open go buy wheat?
15:09
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
15:10
SPEAKER_00: Hey, I better put up a disclaimer, right?
15:12
SPEAKER_00: I'm talking about wheat.
15:13
SPEAKER_00: I'm not suggesting you do, but uh I'd be a lot more comfortable owning it when it was a heck of a lot lower.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: That's why I put up this little beauty here.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: Futures trading involves risk loss.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: It's not suitable for everyone, but past profits are not necessarily indicative of future profits results.
15:27
SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you what, how awesome is America that I can sit at home in my basement, which is now my trading room is my living room, and and I have a a giant Dell screen.
15:39
SPEAKER_00: I have to bring that up from the basement, and I could trade almost every market in the world.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: How awesome is America that I can be in the SP 500 pit, the NASDAQ pit, the gold pit in the silver pit at five o'clock.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: And then at seven o'clock, I can be in all those pits too.
15:56
SPEAKER_00: And that brings me into the most bastardly way to add a commercial is that I do that because I actually and I didn't mean to lead in like that, but I'm just laughing.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: I use T4 futures and options, and I do clear my trades through plus 500.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: Agbol trading clients clear their trades through plus 500.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: They have other other choices too.
16:18
SPEAKER_00: But when right after I get done recording the show with Jim, I'm gonna flip over to my trade to news.
16:23
SPEAKER_00: Trade to news is an audio squawk service.
16:25
SPEAKER_00: I don't have it right on right now, but it all kidding aside, part of what we're doing in my basement is I had some speakers in the ceiling tile, and we're getting a uh a speaker.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: You you guys aren't gonna believe me, but if you really watch this show, I'm having my electrician move a ceiling tile speaker to my bathroom in the basement, my kitchen, and above my trading.
16:52
SPEAKER_00: And so when I walk around in my basement, I want to be able to hear trade the news all the time because information's coming out the speed of light.
17:03
SPEAKER_00: And that wasn't an infomercial, you know, for trade the news.
17:06
SPEAKER_00: And of course, I do use T T4, but when I start winding up saying, isn't America the best country ever that we can sit in the comfort of our home and be safe as we talk about service members dying and have access that I no longer need to go to Chicago to trade the markets.
17:24
SPEAKER_00: I spend half my time in Nashville and you're in Virginia, but and and you have T4, Jim.
17:30
SPEAKER_01: I mean, boy, you know, the uh there's two things I would I would uh either quibble with you on.
17:37
SPEAKER_01: One is you should have told me you wanted speakers in your bathrooms because when I remodeled my bathrooms recently, I just went to Home Depot and they have lights now that have speakers built in them.
17:49
SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of interesting.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: Cheaper, you don't have to hire an electrician.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: I already had the speakers, I'm just I already had speakers and ceiling tiles.
17:58
SPEAKER_00: We're just moving them around from where they were.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: Okay, and the second one is you said, Dell, I like Dell, however, I'm an Apple person.
18:05
SPEAKER_01: You can't be an Apple on quality, you just have to pay more, but I'm an Apple.
18:10
SPEAKER_00: 90 some percent of the trading software runs on traditional uh PCs.
18:14
SPEAKER_00: And man, I want to talk about technology a little bit because we're kind of in that commercial phase of our our show today, but you're working on some things.
18:24
SPEAKER_00: People, if you people have subscribed to Wees Myers Text.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: How long have you had your your letter?
18:30
SPEAKER_00: How long have you been emailing people what you email us all?
18:34
SPEAKER_01: Well, even before the current version updates, I used to do a when futures world news was uh a uh daily report when I worked for ProFarmer, so I've been doing it a long time, but in the current format, it's been a while.
18:49
SPEAKER_01: I'd have to I'd have to look back, Tommy.
18:51
SPEAKER_01: Five years, ten years.
18:53
SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
18:53
SPEAKER_01: And I I was one of the original bloggers.
18:56
SPEAKER_01: We didn't call them bloggers at the time, you know.
18:59
SPEAKER_01: But I've got a thing that that I was blogging before the the word became popular.
19:04
SPEAKER_01: It's just sure.
19:05
SPEAKER_01: But you you mentioned the the uh the uh Chicago Board of Trade.
19:10
SPEAKER_01: I remember that to where you had to have a lot of contacts that were that were runners, if you will, right?
19:17
SPEAKER_01: And they had the feel, they could get the feel of a market, you know, by being on the floor, at least the good ones.
19:24
SPEAKER_02: Sure, sure.
19:25
SPEAKER_01: Now you get it from other aspects, connecting dots.
19:30
SPEAKER_01: You still have your your system of contacts that that I've built up over many, many decades now, five decades, to where it helps give you a feel for the marketplace.
19:41
SPEAKER_01: Now you're not right all the time, but I'll tell you the veterans in the trade, that's where experience to me is like education without going to school.
19:51
SPEAKER_01: If you have uh experience trading, it's it's your your you're you you've been through a lot in bull markets and bear markets.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: You learn more in bear markets, I've learned over the years, and uh at least farmers do.
20:06
SPEAKER_01: And so we try to get the feel of a marketplace, and through some of our news outlets that we use that that you mentioned, that helps us uh connect dots that that we don't have the time to search this and this and this, but we can access many different things being in our home offices and just using our noggin to connect dots and to every once in a while you say, Hey, this thing's gonna go higher or lower, and these are the reasons why.
20:37
SPEAKER_01: And that's that's why we're here.
20:39
SPEAKER_00: Let's connect the dots.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: There was the way Jim wrote in 1996, and then the way you wrote in 06, the way you wrote in 16.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: You're still doing the same thing you've done for 40 years, but the way the partnership's gonna work with Agbo Media and Jim Wiesmeyer, we're gonna bring the your viewers, listeners, clients so much more technology with these text alerts, breaking news alerts, and there's so much more, you know, every not everyone's a pretty white, but if you send someone a text, 87% of the people open it within the first five minutes.
21:14
SPEAKER_00: If you send someone an email, 10% of the people open it within the first five minutes.
21:18
SPEAKER_00: And so the way your emailing is going to change the text alerts, of course, that's probably gonna come at the cost of your viewership, but I don't think people mind paying.
21:27
SPEAKER_00: People never mind paying for great information, they don't mind paying for a great meal, they don't mind paying for a great bottle of wine, especially if it's presented well and everything else, or a nice steak, or anything.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: People pay premium for non-GMO corn or premium for this, and information's changed and the way we deliver it to is uh absolutely yeah, which is why, Tommy.
21:51
SPEAKER_01: I we we're through your help too.
21:54
SPEAKER_01: I've remodeled a new a new format for my daily special report, yeah.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: Because yeah, and then I've had a number of readers tell me, Hey, this looks a lot better on my cell phone.
22:08
SPEAKER_01: That's The reason why, Tommy, that we're going to increasingly move.
22:12
SPEAKER_01: We won't get away from the emails, but we're increasingly going to know that our viewership is going to read my daily updates and special reports initially, at least, before they get to the office or wherever they're at on their cell phone.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: So we're going to make it clear, uh more professionally looking, which I think it is right now.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: So we're not ever going to say that we're not going to quit changing, but it's usually for the improvement, not the detriment of the product.
22:40
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: And then, Jim, moving forward, if someone wants to sign up for what is currently your free newsletter, they can contact through you.
22:47
SPEAKER_01: I'd rather they go through you now because we're going to build that base and they'll get on it pretty quick.
22:52
SPEAKER_01: You'll get on my list pretty quick.
22:54
SPEAKER_00: Instantly, I see it.
22:54
SPEAKER_00: If they go, folks, if you're out there and you're not on Jim's list, which is still currently free, and I really, really hint, nod, wink, suggest you get on there while it's free.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: Because someday when it's not free, you'll still get that legacy rate.
23:09
SPEAKER_00: And with without telling you what the birthday surprise is, at least you know there's a birthday coming up, right?
23:15
SPEAKER_00: And I I think I still have that pop-up that says, shut off phone, Jim.
23:21
SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's okay.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: I love it.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: I love it.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: All right, folks.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: If you want to get on Jim's newsletter, www.agbol.com, we'll get you on there immediately.
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Of course, if you want to subscribe to us, I feel a little preachy, a little selly, but the truth is, and this is why I don't feel bad.
23:37
SPEAKER_00: If you want to become a premium client of AgBull, what I'm doing is different than what Jim's doing.
23:43
SPEAKER_00: To be perfectly clear, we are markets, market information, commodity information, commodity research, Mike Sands video, text alerts on breaking news.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: Jim, you explain how the two merge together.
23:58
SPEAKER_00: What Ag Bull trading is totally different than what you do, but to be in the ag world, you kind of need both, don't you?
24:05
SPEAKER_01: Oh, absolutely.
24:07
SPEAKER_01: And what people who really know me, I had two really big mentors, well, actually three in my long career.
24:15
SPEAKER_01: First, don't ag service, and they were a uh uh farmer newsletter, but they talked markets, and so that that was my initial uh merging of of news and policy information with markets.
24:30
SPEAKER_01: Then I went to work with Willard Sparks.
24:33
SPEAKER_01: Now he was an analyst originally by training, really good analyst, but then he started his own company.
24:39
SPEAKER_01: He used to work at Cook Cook Grain Company, but then he was a big he was a big trader, cattle, cotton, you name it.
24:47
SPEAKER_01: And then Merrill Oster, well, I worked for him for over 20 years, and he was a journalist by training, but yet he was a trader.
24:57
SPEAKER_01: And and now with you as a trader, I finally concluded, absolutely, that's my like secondhand.
25:05
SPEAKER_01: If if I have if I'm working with a trader, T-R-A-D-E-R, that brings me, what does the news mean?
25:13
SPEAKER_01: If it doesn't mean Merrill Auster used to say, what's it mean to a corn producer in Grundy County, Iowa?
25:19
SPEAKER_01: If it doesn't, don't write about it, you know.
25:22
SPEAKER_01: So you get that element, Tommy.
25:24
SPEAKER_01: That's that keeps you honest and it keeps you in the flow.
25:27
SPEAKER_01: And so that's why I love now working with you because now I'm I'm back working with a person who lives and breathes markets, and that's where we're at.
25:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: And then that we got to give a shout out to Davis Michelson because you said Grundy County and in his setup, he has a sign that's Grundy County.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: A heck, you might even be able to see it here in this setup.
25:49
SPEAKER_00: Here, I think this is Davis's setup there, but right there and that bottom right picture, there's a little green road sign that says uh Grundy Road.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: But folks, if you don't know, Davis is the host of uh Ag Squawk in the Afternoons.
26:03
SPEAKER_00: Of course, we do Ag Squawk in the morning with Mr.
26:05
SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell and myself.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: That's the AM show.
26:09
SPEAKER_00: There's Jed right there.
26:10
SPEAKER_00: We call him Judge Jed.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: But we had several new subscribers over the weekend, and I texted them and I called and I asked why they're subscribing, and they had a few reasons.
26:20
SPEAKER_00: And none of them were gross.
26:22
SPEAKER_00: It was Weesmeier and Michelson.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: Of course, you know, I'm here doing stuff all the time from the behind the scenes, but someone said, I noticed what you're doing there.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: Media's changed.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: There was a media group that just sold a few weeks ago, and it's not the traditional ag media people buying folks like us.
26:42
SPEAKER_00: What happened is, and I watched another podcast on this, and then we got to get in the show and nail it down.
26:46
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: But the legendary gatekeeper, the gatekeeper is gone.
26:52
SPEAKER_00: And it was actually Mike Rowe from Dirty Jobs who was explaining on how he's in the podcast world and Megan Kelly's in the podcast world.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: And whether you're a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, the gatekeeper, ABC, A NBC, CBS, Fox, and someone else, they were the gatekeepers.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: And if you didn't kiss the ring, as they say from The Godfather, you would never get on their networks.
27:16
SPEAKER_00: Now you take Tommy Grassaffee and Jim working their butts off on a Sunday for you all with some really nice laptops, a camera, and a picture behind me, and all of a sudden we are in the media business.
27:29
SPEAKER_00: And what happened is you no longer have to kiss the ring of the gatekeeper.
27:35
SPEAKER_00: Not only did that happen in traditional media, but it's heck happening in ag media.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: And I'll even go on a rant a little bit more because I'm in a mood today.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: But we had a major organization ask me on Friday to join their organization, and they said, you should really be part of our organization.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: We see what you're doing in podcast in media.
27:54
SPEAKER_00: I asked them for a list of how joining their organization would help my paid for subscriber group.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: I said, because folks, I'm I'm sponsored by you.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: You, the person who sends$25 a month.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: You are the sponsor of the show.
28:10
SPEAKER_00: So I asked this group, how will this help me?
28:13
SPEAKER_00: I'm a podcast with paid subscribers.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: How will joining your organization help?
28:19
SPEAKER_00: And they said, Well, it probably won't, but we need your help right now because we're legacy media, we're terrestrial media, I think that's what you call it.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: And they said, We're struggling.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: We need your youth and energy.
28:32
SPEAKER_00: Pretty much what it sounded like to me was we're screwing up, come show us what the heck you're doing, because this seems like the future.
28:38
SPEAKER_01: They haven't kept up with the times because they're not listening to their customers.
28:43
SPEAKER_00: Customer is always right.
28:45
SPEAKER_00: That's rule number one.
28:46
SPEAKER_01: I I have a lot to say on that, but I won't.
28:49
SPEAKER_01: And and then they don't have middle and upper tier, they have too much middle and upper tier.
28:55
SPEAKER_01: And that's what the legacy media is about.
28:58
SPEAKER_01: They're not talking, they're not talking to their audience anymore.
29:01
SPEAKER_01: So let's get back to where we were, Tommy.
29:03
SPEAKER_01: We were under wheat, if you'll recall.
29:05
SPEAKER_01: And I was much of Ukraine.
29:07
SPEAKER_00: The reason we wanted to get into all that is there's so many things happening.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: I mean, when we see these people subscribing, I said, What are what is going on?
29:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, they said, We see what you're doing there.
29:18
SPEAKER_00: And what you all don't see there is these organizations asking me to join when two years ago I tried to join that organization.
29:26
SPEAKER_00: They said, We don't accept podcasters.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, looks like they do now.
29:31
SPEAKER_00: We were under week, my friend.
29:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I wanted to add this week, we're gonna have the week quality tour.
29:37
SPEAKER_01: That's the HRW and Durham Wheat Tour this week.
29:39
SPEAKER_01: So that's and and that's well-respected tour.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: So that'll be in the news as we go through the week.
29:45
SPEAKER_01: I think they end in Thursday on Thursday.
29:47
SPEAKER_01: I think it begins tomorrow, and I think it they'll have a some estimates out on Thursday.
29:52
SPEAKER_01: So that's in wheat.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Cotton, despite weather woes, the funds have bolted, but you've got some crop problems, weather-related crop problems there.
30:01
SPEAKER_01: So I don't think this upside is through on the on the cotton market.
30:05
SPEAKER_01: Cattle, uh, we had a big story this week as the top end.
30:10
SPEAKER_01: Had some pretty veteran analysts tell me they think it is, but we're gonna have to see because cattle uh has come roaring back before under this still very tight market.
30:20
SPEAKER_01: But we give some of the reasons why in our special report.
30:23
SPEAKER_01: Right now, futures are clearly oversold, is is what at least logic would tell me.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: So we could have a mini rally coming up here because that's just just the way history history tells us.
30:35
SPEAKER_01: That's not an outlook, that's just common sense that futures are oversold.
30:39
SPEAKER_01: Hogs, we got we've had a pretty big rally here.
30:42
SPEAKER_01: The reason demand is is is picking up.
30:46
SPEAKER_01: So those are some of the other reasons.
30:49
SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna go to the next one, Tommy.
30:51
SPEAKER_01: Number three, cattle inventory report.
30:53
SPEAKER_01: This is a big week for cattle numbers from USDA.
30:57
SPEAKER_01: We have the mid-year cattle inventory and the quarterly cattle on feed day that coming out July the 24th, Thursday.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: So it's gonna update the herd size, the 2026 calf crop, and we're gonna see the feedlot steer and heifer mix.
31:12
SPEAKER_01: And that'll help all these analysts will go nuts on this and analyze it and what's it mean to both cash and futures market.
31:20
SPEAKER_01: Any fewer heifers on feed would signal females are retained for herd rebuilding.
31:25
SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna have the gut check to see whether or not this herd is rebuilding, or if we're gonna have to rely on the dairy beef to offset that, the lack of expansion and those imports that we talked about.
31:37
SPEAKER_01: That's called we're we're connecting dots, Tommy.
31:39
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
31:40
SPEAKER_01: Any any continued herd contraction could trigger a rebound in oversold cattle futures.
31:46
SPEAKER_01: So if we get somewhat bullish numbers with the cattle futures, it looks like being oversold here, that could have a pretty big rally.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: We don't know which way, but these are some of the numbers that will tell us out Thursday.
32:00
SPEAKER_01: And any clear rebuilding signs may pressure longer-term prices, but we have to have those clear signs.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: If not, the market won't believe it.
32:11
SPEAKER_01: Bottom line: the data is going to help set the tone for fall feeder cattle markets.
32:17
SPEAKER_01: So this thing has a longer shelf life, these numbers.
32:21
SPEAKER_01: So this is an important day, Thursday, coming up for the cattle markets, Tommy.
32:26
SPEAKER_00: I'll add a little color to that again.
32:28
SPEAKER_00: We talked about last week.
32:29
SPEAKER_00: We know, I know as a trader and a broker, that there are a lot of cattle people out there underhedged, underprotected, under LRP'd.
32:37
SPEAKER_00: And when you're on a six-year bull market, you think it's never going to end.
32:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure if it ended, but I will tell you this cattle markets broke 10 to 15%.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: If we drop another 15% quickly, you're going to have an incredible amount of people underwater who borrowed money at a high interest rate, high compared to the last 15 years, and paid a record high price to be in the beef industry.
33:01
SPEAKER_00: And so if the every day the futures go down, it it compounds.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: Like how you can compound money in a positive way.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: This is a negative compound.
33:11
SPEAKER_00: You're paying high interest rates for a high price of product, and the final price you get is going down.
33:16
SPEAKER_00: I know there are cattlemen and cattle women out there and ranchers who are underhedged, underprotected, and that's a choice they made.
33:25
SPEAKER_00: We didn't make it for them.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: They made that choice, Jim.
33:28
SPEAKER_00: Back to you.
33:29
SPEAKER_01: Well, it's called the need for risk management at both ends.
33:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
33:32
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
33:32
SPEAKER_01: The next one U.S.
33:34
SPEAKER_01: Iran conflict.
33:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
33:35
SPEAKER_01: So we have some horrible news in harm's way.
33:38
SPEAKER_01: Uh several US uh soldiers were killed.
33:42
SPEAKER_01: We had just one about a half an hour ago, another one.
33:47
SPEAKER_01: So there's no more ceasefire.
33:49
SPEAKER_01: I didn't even think there was one to begin with because a reason you can't trust Iran.
33:54
SPEAKER_01: So President Trump is finally, it looks like, coming around to understanding that.
33:59
SPEAKER_01: They've had consecutive nights, both countries, Iran and the U.S.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: fire nightly fires at each other.
34:05
SPEAKER_01: Crude prices surged uh last week, Tommy, both in the uh WTI, which is the U.S.
34:11
SPEAKER_01: crude oil market, and Brent is the uh uh uh uh overseas market.
34:17
SPEAKER_01: And that's impacted diesel fuel prices.
34:19
SPEAKER_01: We're nearing what five dollars again?
34:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: And fertilizer prices right in the gut slot that we're going into uh 2027 crop purchases for for for for fertilizer.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: So not good timing on on this one.
34:35
SPEAKER_01: So uh I could say a lot more on the U.S.
34:37
SPEAKER_01: Iran conflict, but this thing has a lingering impact.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: But the U.S.
34:43
SPEAKER_01: continues to to focus on the Strait of Harmuz to make sure that eventually it's not right away, can be open as as a logistics market, but it isn't right now.
34:56
SPEAKER_01: So this thing's gonna continue for a while, Tommy.
34:59
SPEAKER_00: I look forward to the day we can get rid of that graphic of uh US Iran ticking time bomb.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: But if it's pertinent, I'm gonna play it every week because I if if you ask me, are we towards the beginning, middle, or the end?
35:11
SPEAKER_00: I hope we're towards the end, but I have a horrible feeling this is just the beginning of a long, stretched-out thing.
35:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't think it's a forever war, but let's hope it isn't.
35:22
SPEAKER_01: But more crude oil is getting through the strait than the numbers that you see on Bloomberg and others tend to indicate.
35:30
SPEAKER_01: The reason in the dead of night and with the and with the US help in the region.
35:35
SPEAKER_01: So that's why, although crude oil have had a big surge, they could they could be a lot higher, higher.
35:41
SPEAKER_01: But is uh it's a result of some of this crude actually getting in that we don't have the numbers for, Tommy.
35:48
SPEAKER_01: That's the bottom line on the U.S.
35:49
SPEAKER_01: Iran conflict.
35:51
SPEAKER_01: But stay tuned because we're going to cover it daily.
35:53
SPEAKER_00: Well, let's bring it back to DC Congress this week.
35:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the House comes back.
35:58
SPEAKER_01: This is the final week for the House before the long August break, which means they have a lot to do.
36:05
SPEAKER_01: The Senate, however, are in town and they'll stay stick in town for two weeks because they have even a longer list of things to do.
36:14
SPEAKER_01: And let's look at some of the things in Congress this week and lingering.
36:18
SPEAKER_01: USDA Secretary Rollins will go before a Senate panel on Tuesday, and she's gonna be asked all some of the topics that we've discussed uh year-round E-15, the need for additional farmer aid, uh uh and and other aspects, fertilizer prices, you name it.
36:37
SPEAKER_01: She's gonna be asked about it, food stamp program.
36:39
SPEAKER_01: The Democrats will ask her about that.
36:42
SPEAKER_01: U.S.
36:42
SPEAKER_01: trade rep Greer, Jameson Greer is gonna testify Wednesday before the Senate Finance Committee, and he'll of course be asked about the U.S.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: Mexico Canada Agreement.
36:53
SPEAKER_01: In fact, he's going later in the week, I think right after he testifies to Mexico City, because the U.S.
37:00
SPEAKER_01: and Mexico are gonna huddle again on the continued negotiations under the USMCA.
37:07
SPEAKER_01: And I I continue to bottom line USMCA quoting Greer in his interview a week or so ago on the Larry Cudlow show on Fox Business of saying uh the US is uh Trump has already changed USMCA relative to aluminum and steel tariffs.
37:23
SPEAKER_01: So don't think that it has been changed.
37:26
SPEAKER_01: It has been.
37:27
SPEAKER_01: Two, yes, they are using it as leverage to get things they really want to stop the the porous aspects of China and Vietnam cars and auto parts coming in through Mexico, the fruit and vegetable uh aspects of Mexico with the U.S., that's a sensitive one in the U.S.
37:48
SPEAKER_01: GMO for corn is an issue.
37:51
SPEAKER_01: And as far as trade dispute uh mechanisms, Greer has said the USMCA existing agreement can settle most of the trade disputes, but not all of them.
38:04
SPEAKER_01: But the Trump administration has the trade policy tools to handle the most sensitive issues, and that that's about the most succinct update that I care to give you on USMCA.
38:16
SPEAKER_01: We have a North American market, it's gonna continue to be a North American market, and we'll have annual extensions of it, maybe until the Trump administration leaves, and then but it's gonna continue.
38:30
SPEAKER_01: That's the word that I want the the ag sector to uh hear, Tommy.
38:35
SPEAKER_01: As far as Congress, the other work, Senate Ag Panel work on Farm Bill 2.0.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: Uh Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Bolzman, a Republican from Arkansas, has said it could be this week or probably more likely next week, because uh the committee markup.
38:51
SPEAKER_01: We we have to have the Senate, he's released the bill language, but now we have to have the Senate Ag Committee mark it up.
38:58
SPEAKER_01: Well, they're short of uh Republicans.
39:02
SPEAKER_01: Mitch McConnell is still recuperating from whatever ails him, he fell down, etc.
39:08
SPEAKER_01: So I they might have a hard time getting it out of the Senate uh ag committee, so he may have to wait another week, but that's gonna fester.
39:16
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna see when, not if, they're gonna have a Senate Ag Committee vote because they've got another couple weeks after this week before the Senate leaves town.
39:27
SPEAKER_01: Year-round E15, the House has already passed the bill.
39:30
SPEAKER_01: The Senate language will not look the same as the House bill, almost guarantee you that.
39:36
SPEAKER_01: And there's not many things I'll guarantee you that will for Congress, but that would be detrimental to the bio-based biodiesel if the House bill uh went through in the Senate.
39:45
SPEAKER_01: That's the reason why it won't.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: So we have to look at the language of the final Senate bill and what it's gonna be put on, because I don't think the votes are there as a standalone bill.
39:55
SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna have to, it'll have to be attached to a must-bass spending bill or a supplemental spending bill.
40:01
SPEAKER_01: And that may take a while, Tommy, is what I'm signaling here.
40:05
SPEAKER_01: It'll come maybe after the November 3rd midterm elections.
40:09
SPEAKER_01: We have to make wait that long.
40:11
SPEAKER_01: The biggest one from a farmer audience is additional farmer aid.
40:15
SPEAKER_01: The the White House a couple of weeks ago indicated as part of their Iran War supplemental that they included the need for$11.1 billion of additional farmer aid.
40:28
SPEAKER_01: Call it bridge, another bridge,$10 billion for row crops and$1.1 billion for Florida ag disaster.
40:37
SPEAKER_01: But then, as part of the budget reconciliation number three bill last week, I don't want to get too wonky on you.
40:45
SPEAKER_01: They they included language of$12 billion for farmer aid.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: So that goes from$11.1 billion to$12 billion.
40:55
SPEAKER_01: But we also have House A Committee Chairman GT Thompson, Republican for Pennsylvania, and Senate Ad Committee Chairman uh Bozeman are pushing higher level, even than$12 billion, up to up to$17 billion.
41:09
SPEAKER_01: That remains to be seen whether or not they can be successful in getting that through.
41:13
SPEAKER_01: But I do think you'll have additional farmer aid.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: But again, the votes, you've got to have the votes.
41:19
SPEAKER_01: And the Democrats are going to be very careful what they vote on uh until the until this November 3rd election.
41:26
SPEAKER_01: So that again could wait until after the November 3rd elections.
41:31
SPEAKER_01: I frequently I'm getting emails and telephone calls from uh different people on well, can can't the White House tap USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act?
41:40
SPEAKER_01: That's what they did the last time, Tommy.
41:43
SPEAKER_01: Well, that thing is draining.
41:45
SPEAKER_01: They'll they'll have enough in October.
41:47
SPEAKER_01: It'll be almost zero in October, by the way.
41:50
SPEAKER_01: It's replenished.
41:51
SPEAKER_01: They have a$30 billion borrowing authority, and that's going to be near that limit come October, because October is when they make those uh ARC and PLC payments.
42:02
SPEAKER_01: USDA officials assure me that yes, they have enough to make those payments.
42:06
SPEAKER_01: That's point number one I wanted to put out.
42:08
SPEAKER_01: Two is it will replenish, but probably sometime after November 3rd elections.
42:15
SPEAKER_01: And but here's the policy initiative on this one.
42:19
SPEAKER_01: Farm Bureau several years ago and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins recently urged that the borrowing authority be increased beyond the$30 billion borrowing authority.
42:33
SPEAKER_01: If that happens, usually Congress will want budget offsets, but it really needs to be increased.
42:39
SPEAKER_01: It hasn't been increased for 40 years.
42:43
SPEAKER_01: So that's gonna be important as the years go on, Tommy, that that uh borrowing authority needs because of the cost of doing business in agriculture, are these things that could fly up at you with the fertilizer prices and things like that, the on the input cost size.
42:59
SPEAKER_01: So that's gonna be a lingering issue.
43:01
SPEAKER_00: On okay, it sounds like November 3rd is D-Day for get it done or it is.
43:07
SPEAKER_01: We'll see the lay of the land and then we'll know where the power structure is after November 3rd.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: And that's when a lot of things are gonna come in, what we call the lame duck session of Congress after November 3rd election results are known.
43:21
SPEAKER_01: It may take a week or so in California, as we've learned.
43:24
SPEAKER_01: Next one is USMCA.
43:26
SPEAKER_01: We've already handled that, Tommy.
43:27
SPEAKER_01: USMCA Greer is gonna go to Mexico right after his uh congressional testimony on Wednesday, the Senate Finance Committee.
43:35
SPEAKER_01: And I I think we bottom lined it before.
43:37
SPEAKER_01: So we can go right to the second to the last one.
43:41
SPEAKER_01: Bayer's uh, you talk about an interesting development.
43:44
SPEAKER_01: I was on agri-talk Friday and helped uh chip break the news.
43:48
SPEAKER_00: I I was listening to you like I can't get enough of Jim, and all of a sudden I hear Jim goop and then you you one upped them.
43:59
SPEAKER_00: We call you the one upper, just you're like Bayer.
44:02
SPEAKER_01: Well, Bayer's rev uh uh Ruveyon withdrew their China glyphosate trade petition.
44:07
SPEAKER_01: Now you talk.
44:09
SPEAKER_01: About quick, they bow wow pretty quick.
44:12
SPEAKER_01: Why strong farm group opposition?
44:15
SPEAKER_01: So, you farmers and farm groups think that you don't have clout.
44:18
SPEAKER_01: Think again.
44:20
SPEAKER_01: Bayer had sought duties of up to 400 numbers.
44:25
SPEAKER_01: I think it I don't think it's I'm gonna have to double check that.
44:27
SPEAKER_01: It looks high to me.
44:28
SPEAKER_01: Threatening higher herbicide costs.
44:30
SPEAKER_01: You know, I am gonna have to check that.
44:31
SPEAKER_01: That might have hit the type.
44:34
SPEAKER_01: Let me see.
44:35
SPEAKER_01: Let me see.
44:35
SPEAKER_00: Let me look here.
44:36
SPEAKER_00: I'll go talk while you're you go check that because I don't want to give out bad information.
44:40
SPEAKER_01: Look at my Ruby and here.
44:42
SPEAKER_01: I'll I'll click here.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: Look at the whole camera's on me.
44:45
SPEAKER_00: This is the most beautiful thing.
44:47
SPEAKER_01: See, I'm looking at the case.
44:48
SPEAKER_01: While Jim's doing that, we have on on he's looking.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: I'll talk real quick.
44:56
SPEAKER_01: On eye popping 68.9% to 446.47%.
45:01
SPEAKER_00: You went out wrong.
45:02
SPEAKER_01: See, I just that was at the top end.
45:04
SPEAKER_01: It went from as low as call it 69% to as high as call it 446%.
45:11
SPEAKER_01: So it ranged.
45:13
SPEAKER_01: And I just got that by clicking on the story we ran on on this whole issue over the weekend here, yeah, uh Saturday, July the 18th.
45:21
SPEAKER_01: The headline Ruby on Ruveyon retreats, Bayer's glyphosate unit pulls the China trade petitions after forming firestorm.
45:30
SPEAKER_00: My mom and dad watch this show, and they don't know what any of this means, but they like you, they like your style.
45:38
SPEAKER_00: I I try to talk to him.
45:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, listen, he's not a really nice guy.
45:43
SPEAKER_00: You should see him before the camera's rolling.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: He's a tough one.
45:46
SPEAKER_00: He makes me spell check, he makes me this.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: I got grammarly, but I don't understand what's all this mean.
45:53
SPEAKER_00: Talk to me like I'm a third grader.
45:55
SPEAKER_01: Well, that means if they would have been uh if they if they would have gotten those higher duties, it would have been higher herbicide cost, and that's why farmers went ballistic on that one, you know.
46:06
SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's what it meant.
46:08
SPEAKER_01: We're already in an input, we're already in a price cost spiral here, Tommy.
46:13
SPEAKER_01: So the farm groups and now the farm groups are telling Bayer, hey, don't you price hike this stuff, not now.
46:20
SPEAKER_01: So the retreat again showed farm groups can quickly influence major input suppliers.
46:27
SPEAKER_01: That's what it's that's what it told me.
46:29
SPEAKER_01: You don't usually see this bow wow until much later.
46:32
SPEAKER_01: And so Bayer knew they were on the wrong side of this issue.
46:36
SPEAKER_01: They're a good company, but they had to bow wow.
46:38
SPEAKER_01: That's just a lie.
46:40
SPEAKER_00: Rollins had uh a lot of those farmers in at the USDA, they all had their names and stuff.
46:45
SPEAKER_00: I should have put a picture.
46:46
SPEAKER_00: I did see several people I know.
46:49
SPEAKER_00: It did it did bring me up to think about something.
46:53
SPEAKER_00: The USDA had a bunch of farmers in the office, they were all dressed in suits, dressed nice, did a great job representing America, but they were some of the largest farmers I know.
47:03
SPEAKER_00: And to be honest with you, if there was something I could say, because I know people at the USDA watch, matter of fact, we had someone extremely important in the USDA in my office in Nashville the other day.
47:14
SPEAKER_00: But you're USDA, if you're watching, you're losing touch with the small independent farmer.
47:21
SPEAKER_00: You're constantly having meetings and bringing people to DC that are big, large farmers.
47:25
SPEAKER_00: And I don't want to mention their name of the people in the picture because they watch the show and like the show, and it's not a slant to them, but it's really saying that agriculture, everyone's running around saying, big farmer, we're gonna we're watching, we're listening.
47:40
SPEAKER_00: Who's got the little farmers back?
47:42
SPEAKER_00: Who has the mom-pop shop that owns 400 acres in Iowa and is still a small independent farmer?
47:50
SPEAKER_00: I feel like the USDA should spend more time going to a bank with a real farmer, not inviting the farmers to DC for the show in the photo op.
48:00
SPEAKER_00: What do you think, Jim?
48:01
SPEAKER_01: Well, that's why you have farm policy, and that's why the Title I safety net has to be flexible enough to handle the uh the uh uh uh uh uh credits, the uh grants, the uh uh uh reference prices and things like that.
48:15
SPEAKER_01: Policy needs to breathe.
48:17
SPEAKER_01: And I understand where the administration is coming from because what 15% of the farmers produce 85% of production agriculture, so that's their audience.
48:27
SPEAKER_01: That that doesn't mean they disregard, I don't think, Tommy, the smaller producer.
48:33
SPEAKER_01: It's just they want to talk to production agriculture.
48:36
SPEAKER_01: Now, Brooke Rollins, however, in the cattle market, she has a proclivity to like that populist type of producer.
48:43
SPEAKER_01: So I think when it comes to cattle, she'll tend to uh kind of angle toward more of the small independent independent producer, Tommy.
48:53
SPEAKER_01: So it's it's it it depends on the commodity, but they go with the commodity groups and and and and and I think most of the commodity groups try to listen to all all the all uh all of their sectors, by the way.
49:06
SPEAKER_00: Well, let's hope.
49:07
SPEAKER_00: Let's hope.
49:07
SPEAKER_00: Okay, we're towards the end of the show.
49:08
SPEAKER_01: I think yeah, the last one credit, credit, credit.
49:11
SPEAKER_01: Federal Reserve Chief Kevin Walsh, he testified twice last week.
49:15
SPEAKER_01: We call him Humphrey Hawkins appearances of the House Financial Services and the Senate banking panels.
49:21
SPEAKER_01: Inflation, he said we had a lower the the we had an inflation report, but he said one favorable report is not enough.
49:30
SPEAKER_01: The two percent goal for the Fed on inflation remains the key.
49:34
SPEAKER_01: And I think we're three and a half percent on inflation, so we've got a ways to go.
49:39
SPEAKER_01: That means that I think it's steady as she goes for interest rates.
49:42
SPEAKER_01: I don't see an interest rate hike coming, although some in the market think that we need one.
49:48
SPEAKER_01: So he gave no signal on the next rate move, uh, hike, hold, or cut possible, and that's why he's smart.
49:56
SPEAKER_01: He made it clear that the Fed will have independence.
49:59
SPEAKER_01: He said decisions are going to follow the data, not political pressure, and that's the way it should be.
50:05
SPEAKER_01: Kevin Walsh, I think it's the right person at the right time to head the Fed.
50:10
SPEAKER_01: And Trump better not take him on because he really pushed Kevin Walsh.
50:15
SPEAKER_01: And I think that uh he knows the market, he's a trader, Tommy T-R-A-D-E-R.
50:21
SPEAKER_01: And uh he he said the best line that I heard a Fed chairman say in years, we want the market to lead us.
50:29
SPEAKER_01: We don't want to lead the market.
50:31
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's I like that.
50:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I like that smart.
50:34
SPEAKER_00: Before we get to the end, I just want to take care of some housekeeping.
50:37
SPEAKER_00: Jim has some really, really, really great news from the top.
50:40
SPEAKER_00: If you'd like to get on Jim's newsletter, you can now start working through us at AgBull.
50:45
SPEAKER_00: Go ahead and contact over here www.agbull.com.
50:50
SPEAKER_00: Of course, you can go to wheesmeyer.ag.
50:53
SPEAKER_00: We but the easiest way is to go to the agbull website, say I want to be on Jim's newsletter under contact us.
50:59
SPEAKER_00: Number two, we went down a little rabbit hole, but it needed to be discussed because people are subscribing to premium and they want to know how is Wiesmeyer, how is Davis Michelson, how are all these people ending up at Agble Media?
51:11
SPEAKER_00: They're ending up here because something has changed.
51:14
SPEAKER_00: We didn't start the fire, as Billy Joel said, but we wrote a song about it.
51:19
SPEAKER_00: For$25 a month,$250 annually, you can be a sponsor of this show.
51:24
SPEAKER_00: Of course, you're going to get your money's worth because we're going to give you a whole bunch of stuff you're not getting for free.
51:28
SPEAKER_00: But in the great world of great worlds, you can still get a bunch of stuff for free because this guy is still giving away stuff for free.
51:36
SPEAKER_00: I have seen nothing like it ever in my life.
51:39
SPEAKER_00: He put out so many articles last week for the seven-day period.
51:43
SPEAKER_00: I think we're up to probably 60 some legitimate real articles, and it's free.
51:49
SPEAKER_00: But I can promise you it's not always going to be free.
51:51
SPEAKER_00: Do yourself a favor, get on the Weesmeier email list before something changes.
51:56
SPEAKER_00: You will be warned before the great change.
51:59
SPEAKER_00: And uh with that, what a great time to be in agriculture.
52:03
SPEAKER_00: I feel like you got a big speech coming.
52:06
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna go full screen on you.
52:08
SPEAKER_00: Soapbox, Mr.
52:09
SPEAKER_00: Jim, give us the good news.
52:11
SPEAKER_01: We always end on the positive side, but I will tell you for the readers and listeners of uh our stuff on Ag Bowl Media, I'll have looks like a little over two-page article, Ag Commodity Markets Bullish versus bearish factors.
52:26
SPEAKER_01: I'm only going to give the bullish ones right now.
52:29
SPEAKER_01: There are always bearish alternatives, but for corn, the July 10th WASDI report cut old crop ending stocks by 125 million bushels and new crop 170 million bushels.
52:42
SPEAKER_01: World stocks, Tommy, fell 6 million metric tons, about 24 million metric tons below year ago.
52:51
SPEAKER_01: That's why you have fundamental uh the constructive tone in the marketplace.
52:55
SPEAKER_01: Export commitments for corn have already topped USDA's full year forecast of 3.325 billion bushels.
53:05
SPEAKER_01: So that's why their corn export number is going to go up.
53:07
SPEAKER_01: Brazil's higher ethanol blend rate is going to divert corn in Brazil to domestic use, and that's going to trim their exportable surplus.
53:17
SPEAKER_01: So, in other words, more demand comes to the U.S.
53:20
SPEAKER_01: weather premium.
53:21
SPEAKER_01: Now I can talk both sides of this because I'm uh I'm telling you, I'm hearing some pretty good corn yield potential corn yields out there.
53:29
SPEAKER_01: Heat, moisture stress, however, have been in parts of the Midwest during pollination.
53:34
SPEAKER_01: And plus the industry uh uh strategy grains cut the EU crop corn crop to 50 million tons.
53:42
SPEAKER_01: And we've we've talked about it what for about a month now.
53:47
SPEAKER_01: The fire going on in French corn.
53:49
SPEAKER_01: So the market's finally focusing on that's just corn, soybeans.
53:54
SPEAKER_01: We've been reporting renewed Chinese buying Kafko.
53:58
SPEAKER_01: That's in China, booked multiple US cargoes last week for September, October.
54:04
SPEAKER_01: New crop weekly sales hit 1.77 million tons, with China taking over a million tons.
54:12
SPEAKER_01: Flash sales, that's those daily export sales, continued through July the 17th.
54:19
SPEAKER_01: And we might see more next week.
54:21
SPEAKER_01: November soybeans posted a bullish weekly high close at$12.03 after the prior week's 55 and a half cent surge.
54:32
SPEAKER_01: Then we had record NOPA June crush last week of a little over 214 million bushels.
54:39
SPEAKER_01: The significance there was far above the 204 million bushels that the trade guessed.
54:45
SPEAKER_01: Last one on beans, the July Wazzy raised the 26-27 export forecast by 30 million bushels in held ending stocks at a tight 310 million bushels.
54:58
SPEAKER_01: If China continues to buy U.S.
55:01
SPEAKER_01: soybeans, you could get that carryover very under pipeline supplies under 300 million bushels.
55:08
SPEAKER_01: That's just potential.
55:11
SPEAKER_01: Soybean meal, don't want to spend too much time, but record crush to me reflects strong underlying meal demand.
55:17
SPEAKER_01: Crush margins remain very good, Tommy.
55:20
SPEAKER_01: That's why we're crushing, like you wouldn't believe.
55:22
SPEAKER_01: We're stretching that soybean processing capacity.
55:25
SPEAKER_01: There's going to become more online.
55:27
SPEAKER_01: I'm working on a story on that.
55:29
SPEAKER_01: What's going to be coming in the months ahead?
55:31
SPEAKER_01: Managed funds have returned as buyers after trimming net longs in June and steady export sales for the weekending July the 9th was led by Colombia and Mexico.
55:43
SPEAKER_01: This is Meal we're talking about.
55:45
SPEAKER_01: And meal's underperformance versus soybeans and soybean oil.
55:49
SPEAKER_01: That left the ketchup upside.
55:51
SPEAKER_01: And that's why I think meal went up.
55:53
SPEAKER_01: They had to play catch up, Tommy.
55:55
SPEAKER_01: Soybean oil, we talked a lot about.
55:57
SPEAKER_01: We had a six-week high Friday, September at almost 74 cents.
56:02
SPEAKER_01: That was a bullish weekly close and aided by crude oils rally above 82.
56:07
SPEAKER_01: There's your connection between soybean oil and crude that you always got to watch.
56:12
SPEAKER_01: NOPA oil stocks came in well below expectations, down 13.5% from the May, despite a record crush.
56:22
SPEAKER_01: So look at that.
56:33
SPEAKER_01: WASDI holds the soy oil for biofuel use near 17.8 billion pounds.
56:40
SPEAKER_01: That's up 25% year over year.
56:44
SPEAKER_01: So that's why soybean oil is screaming.
56:47
SPEAKER_01: Wheat, wheat now.
56:48
SPEAKER_01: July WASDI cut, if you recall, July WASDI cut the ending stocks 22 million bushels to 722 million.
56:57
SPEAKER_01: And world stocks, they cut 2.6 million tons tighter than expected.
57:02
SPEAKER_01: That's why the markets rallied.
57:04
SPEAKER_01: European crop losses are being seen in Germany's estimate was slashed 12%, and French yields are running below average.
57:13
SPEAKER_01: We've talked a lot about and will continue to talk about the Black Sea disruption.
57:18
SPEAKER_01: Ukraine has lost roughly a third of its export capacity, slowing Russian shipments or shifting business to the United States, where the export pace is running ahead of USDA's forecast for U.S.
57:33
SPEAKER_01: wheat exports.
57:34
SPEAKER_01: The hardbred winter wheat condition ratings are among the lowest in 30 years.
57:40
SPEAKER_01: And the heat is stressing the northern plain spring wheat crop.
57:44
SPEAKER_01: And we're going to get a crop tour, quality crop tour results, I think on Thursday this week.
57:50
SPEAKER_01: Cotton.
57:51
SPEAKER_01: July Wazdi cut world production more than four and a half million bales, China, Brazil, while projecting the highest global consumption since 2020.
58:02
SPEAKER_01: Look at that combo, Tommy.
58:04
SPEAKER_01: Cut in production and the highest consumption since 2020.
58:09
SPEAKER_01: What's that mean?
58:09
SPEAKER_01: A tightening world balance sheet.
58:11
SPEAKER_01: We haven't said that for cotton for a while.
58:13
SPEAKER_01: December futures initially recovered back, remember, above the 80 cents level in mid-July on crop condition concerns that are still there.
58:21
SPEAKER_01: U.S.
58:22
SPEAKER_01: exports are pegged up 100,000 with U.S.
58:26
SPEAKER_01: production down, and crop ratings are well behind year ago during bull setting time.
58:31
SPEAKER_01: So we had the downturn this week.
58:34
SPEAKER_01: I think that was a function of funds, but that crop is not made yet, Tommy.
58:38
SPEAKER_01: I always like to talk rice because it's not mentioned on the legacy media that much at all.
58:45
SPEAKER_01: Global export prices are at a one-year plus high.
58:49
SPEAKER_01: That includes Thailand.
58:50
SPEAKER_01: India, Indian quotes, you have to watch India on rice.
58:54
SPEAKER_01: Quotes are up three straight weeks after the government raised their reserve prices.
58:59
SPEAKER_01: We have a weak Indian monsoon.
59:02
SPEAKER_01: The rice planted area is down from a year ago, and Bangladesh flooding is adding important demand risk.
59:09
SPEAKER_01: So sharply lower U.S.
59:11
SPEAKER_01: planted and harvested area for rice points to much tighter rice ending stocks.
59:18
SPEAKER_01: And the CBOT rough rice market is up about 24%.
59:22
SPEAKER_01: You don't hear that much about rice, do you?
59:24
SPEAKER_01: No.
59:25
SPEAKER_01: Cattle we've talked enough about, structural tightness, Mexican borders still closed, cash fed cattle still historically strong, futures heavily sold after the mid-July break, setting up at least a bounce potential into the July 24th cattle on feed report.
59:42
SPEAKER_01: Last but not least, August futures for hogs hit a six-week high close at 99.65, with cash confirming the national direct average near 96.64, and the lean hog index is firming.
59:59
SPEAKER_01: We had record port exports are projected for 2026 up four percent, helped by ASF pressure on EU and Spanish supplies.
1:00:09
SPEAKER_01: The Sal herd is below 6 million head, and that limits expansion, Tommy.
1:00:13
SPEAKER_01: So we could have continued uh firm hog prices.
1:00:17
SPEAKER_01: The summer heat usually trims carcass weights, and it'll trim over the next 30 to 60 days.
1:00:23
SPEAKER_01: Almost sound like Mike Sands.
1:00:25
SPEAKER_01: And analysts see the cutout rising toward 105 to 110 dollars with seasonal ham strength from uh strength in HAMS from mid-July into August, and that's what uh my numbers went through.
1:00:39
SPEAKER_01: And I'll have all this on Agbull Media.com with the alternative.
1:00:43
SPEAKER_01: You always have to be honest with yourself, and there's just as many tempering bearish factors, and I let the market determine which one is going to win out.
1:00:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you know what you just did, you just did the ultimate, ultimate, ultimate.
1:00:57
SPEAKER_00: And I have a slide for this.
1:00:59
SPEAKER_00: You did the ultimate bull bear debate, but you really spun on the bull side.
1:01:04
SPEAKER_00: But there, there, there if it those are the things we know.
1:01:07
SPEAKER_00: But Jim just brought in, he didn't have anyone competing against him, the bull bear debate, but he really, really named off a bunch of bullish things, and you never know what's going to happen, but that's what's happening today, right?
1:01:21
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, and again, we'll have the bear side as well for balance on my in my updates or as a special.
1:01:28
SPEAKER_01: I think it'll be a special report, Tommy, and we'll have it on Agwell Me.
1:01:31
SPEAKER_01: I don't know whether it'll come out today or to tomorrow, as I put make it look pretty for the internet side.
1:01:37
SPEAKER_00: Great.
1:01:38
SPEAKER_00: And I I just want to tell folks that Jim's Jim's trying new things, doing new things, using different models to send you stuff.
1:01:45
SPEAKER_00: If you like what Jim's sending you, drop him an email and say, Hey, I like that new format, it works my phone.
1:01:50
SPEAKER_00: If you don't like it, equally as important to let us know, you can get a hold of Jim or myself there at AgBull.com.
1:01:58
SPEAKER_00: If you haven't subscribed to Jim's Free Newsletter, go to AgBull.com and say, I want to subscribe to Jim's Free Newsletter.
1:02:05
SPEAKER_00: Of course, uh, premium subscribers of AgBull uh trading.
1:02:09
SPEAKER_00: You can uh click on our website and subscribe.
1:02:11
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and give us some tidbits, emails.
1:02:13
SPEAKER_01: I live I live on emails.
1:02:15
SPEAKER_01: I had an email from this I didn't tell you this one, told me from a cork farmer producer in Spain who wants me to write about cork farming.
1:02:29
SPEAKER_01: Cork C O R K that the stoppage is in wine, the wine bottles, the cork, yeah.
1:02:34
SPEAKER_00: Oh my wine comes in a box.
1:02:37
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what type of budget you got over there, but uh my wine comes in cardboard, cardboard farming and in twist tops.
1:02:44
SPEAKER_00: But go ahead.
1:02:45
SPEAKER_01: I know you're but the the emails I get in uh a lot of my follow-up special reports come from either different analyst questions or comments to me, like the uh uh the Panama Canal.
1:02:58
SPEAKER_01: We had a big story on that because of the uh this fall and really into early next year.
1:03:03
SPEAKER_01: The water levels are going to be significant for the Panama Canal, and that's important for the reasons we said on AgbolMedia.com.
1:03:11
SPEAKER_01: All those suggestions come from listeners or readers, Tommy.
1:03:16
SPEAKER_01: I uh that's my grass root salt.
1:03:18
SPEAKER_01: If you have a question on E15 on anything, just email us.
1:03:24
SPEAKER_01: Email us.
1:03:25
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
1:03:25
SPEAKER_00: I'll see you next week.
1:03:26
SPEAKER_00: Hey, longest episode ever, but we had some stuff on our mind.
1:03:29
SPEAKER_00: I've been calling subscribers, saying, Why are you subscribing?
1:03:32
SPEAKER_00: They're telling us.
1:03:33
SPEAKER_00: We're asking people now at the end, what do you want to see more of?
1:03:36
SPEAKER_00: How do you like it?
1:03:37
SPEAKER_00: How do you want it delivered to you?
1:03:39
SPEAKER_00: How fast do you need the text?
1:03:40
SPEAKER_00: What's the best email?
1:03:42
SPEAKER_00: You want us to shine a light up in the sky with the bat symbol?
1:03:44
SPEAKER_00: We can do it all more here at agbull.com.
1:03:47
SPEAKER_00: Hey, right here, I have a picture of my family here, and from my family, Jim's family to you.
1:03:53
SPEAKER_00: We'll see you next week.