Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / Katie Woolf spoke with CDU Demographer Northern Institute College of Indigenous Futures Arts and Society Associate Professor Andrew Taylor

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Katie Woolf spoke with CDU Demographer Northern Institute College of Indigenous Futures Arts and Society Associate Professor Andrew Taylor · 360 with Katie Woolf

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  Speaker 1: For comprehensive political coverage impacting Territorians. The only voice you
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  Speaker 1: need is Katie wilf on three sixty remaining one hundred
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  Speaker 1: percent and Mix one oh four point nine.
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  Speaker 2: Well, there's been a lot of discussion about whether the
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  Speaker 2: territory's population had grown towards the end of last year
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  Speaker 2: with COVID refugees. I think we've been calling them, or
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  Speaker 2: the Chief Minister had called them and joining us on
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  Speaker 2: the line right now to talk a little bit more
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  Speaker 2: about the population. It's CDU Charles Dalwin University, demographer from
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  Speaker 2: the Northern Institute College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society,
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  Speaker 2: Associate Professor Andrew Taylor. Good morning to you, Andrew.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning Katie. Great to be with you.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, good to chat with you.
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  Speaker 2: You and I have discussed this the population on numerous
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  Speaker 2: occasions and whether indeed there was much growth towards the
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  Speaker 2: end of last year. I understand the Bureau of Statistics, well,
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  Speaker 2: they released their most recent data and the population had
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  Speaker 2: actually only grown by about eight people. I think.
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  Speaker 3: Eight people for Darwin. So but there was actually a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a turnaround for Dalen from a negative into
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  Speaker 3: state migration flow to that positive of just eight people.
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  Speaker 3: So in that respect it was a positive thing, but
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  Speaker 3: that was really driven by better retention of people in
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  Speaker 3: the territory. And we've released research today that shows that
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  Speaker 3: indeed people's sentiments about staying in the territory, so people
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  Speaker 3: who already live in the territory have become much more positive.
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  Speaker 3: So those that might have looked at leaving in the
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  Speaker 3: next two years as a result of the pandemic and
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  Speaker 3: various border restrictions and so on, are now looking at staying.
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  Speaker 3: So this is very important for the territory. So it's
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  Speaker 3: really about retention rather than our ability at the moment
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  Speaker 3: to attract more people to the territory. And that's what
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  Speaker 3: the ABS data also showed.
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  Speaker 2: With the data that you've released today, what else has
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  Speaker 2: it found.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so we found that this we call it the
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  Speaker 3: two year attention rate, and it's improved across all age
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  Speaker 3: groups in the territory, but most importantly it's improved for
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  Speaker 3: younger people, so those in their sort of early career
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  Speaker 3: stages age around eighteen to thirty, and they are very
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  Speaker 3: important because they are our biggest group in terms of
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  Speaker 3: flows across borders, so they're the biggest group that we
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  Speaker 3: gain from interstate and they're the biggest group in terms
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  Speaker 3: of losses. So this could help really generate some improvements
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  Speaker 3: in our population outcomes, because interstate migration, as we've discussed, Katie,
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  Speaker 3: is what's been sort of dragging us back in terms
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  Speaker 3: of our population growth.
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  Speaker 2: And so through the work that you've done most recently
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  Speaker 2: and the data that's been released today, why has the
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  Speaker 2: sentiment changed And from what you can gather, why are
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  Speaker 2: people sort of staying in the and a bit more
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  Speaker 2: happy to stay.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a million dollar question. What's happening across the
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  Speaker 3: globe seemingly is this sort of notion of regionalism and
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  Speaker 3: entrenchment in the community you're living in, So people are
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  Speaker 3: sort of looking inwards. Of course, now there are a
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  Speaker 3: million Australians who are not overseas or there's still many
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  Speaker 3: left to come back. But at any point in time,
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  Speaker 3: we have about a million Australian residents overseas. They're all
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  Speaker 3: still home now some of those will be in the
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  Speaker 3: territory who otherwise might have been overseas. But yes, there
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  Speaker 3: is the notion of this general feeling of wanting to
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  Speaker 3: be bedded down in the community where you live sort
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  Speaker 3: of homely nurse. You know, as we've heard, building construction
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  Speaker 3: is going well in the territory and unless people are
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  Speaker 3: traveling overseas, so we're just seeing this retention phenomenon occur
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  Speaker 3: that's a result of the pandemic that we haven't necessarily
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  Speaker 3: seen before in our population figures.
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  Speaker 2: So maybe the you know, the assumption that we had
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  Speaker 2: COVID refugees isn't so wrong.
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  Speaker 3: We haven't well know, when we think of COVID refugees,
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  Speaker 3: we think of people coming specifically to escape, you know,
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  Speaker 3: impacts from the pandemic down south, Whereas what the ABS
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  Speaker 3: data and our research is showing is that it's people
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  Speaker 3: already in the territory who are not leaving. So we
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  Speaker 3: haven't been able We've scoured many data sets, and we
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  Speaker 3: haven't been able to yet fign evidence of this sort
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  Speaker 3: of phenomenon of people coming to the territory to escape
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  Speaker 3: restrictions and border closures and indeed the threats they feel
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  Speaker 3: from the pandemic itself on their jobs or their health.
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  Speaker 3: We haven't yet seen any sort of bounce back in
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  Speaker 3: the numbers coming to the territory. But yet we've seen
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  Speaker 3: for the first time this bounce in retention.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I guess it's always an interesting like it's
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  Speaker 2: a really interesting thing. And there had sort of been
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  Speaker 2: that discussion towards the end of last year wondering if
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  Speaker 2: we would get more people here because of COVID. But
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  Speaker 2: from what you're saying, there's not the data at this
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  Speaker 2: point to sort of support them moving here. But we
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  Speaker 2: are retaining people.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, there isn't at the moment, but with people staying
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  Speaker 3: in the territory. Of course, as we've mentioned, restaurants and
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  Speaker 3: we've heard in the news at restaurants are kind of
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  Speaker 3: having a good business period. There's building and construction happening,
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  Speaker 3: especially around private dwellings and houses for families. So maybe
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  Speaker 3: this will have a multiplier effect into the future and
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  Speaker 3: through their jobs creation through those sort of sectors. All
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  Speaker 3: being well with the vaccine roll out and the pandemic itself,
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  Speaker 3: we might see a role on towards improved numbers of
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  Speaker 3: people coming to the territory, which might then help us
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  Speaker 3: out of this kind of long population, slow growth period
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  Speaker 3: that we've had.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and do anything else interesting from the data that
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  Speaker 2: you have collected, lots.
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  Speaker 3: And lots bought online, and maybe we can discuss it
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  Speaker 3: further at some point, Katie, But basically, we found the
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  Speaker 3: highest increase in the rates of people staying out for
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  Speaker 3: those young people and for people who've been here for
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  Speaker 3: less than a year. Also for people who are born
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  Speaker 3: overseas and are purchasing a home. So those two things
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  Speaker 3: kind of help imbed you in the territory and make
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  Speaker 3: you less like putty to leave as a result of
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  Speaker 3: the pandemic.
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  Speaker 2: And so with those people that have been here less
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  Speaker 2: than a year that are staying, do we have any
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  Speaker 2: ideas sort of what's keeping them here at this point?
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  Speaker 2: Is it jobs, an opportunity or what is this?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, with the younger people, those early career workers,
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  Speaker 3: if you like, mainly not showing the highest increase in retention.
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  Speaker 3: We would have to assume that they're sort of feeling
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  Speaker 3: like they've got a job in the territory. They don't
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  Speaker 3: want to risk leaving now because they may not have
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  Speaker 3: a job down south to go to, or the pandemic
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  Speaker 3: might cause some further issues around lockdowns and so on.
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  Speaker 3: And I think it's about decreasing the risk of those
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  Speaker 3: things for them at this point in time. That is
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  Speaker 3: has changed their sentiment towards either being uncertain about whether
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  Speaker 3: they'll stay or being certain they're leaving. To turn that
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  Speaker 3: around towards no, I'm actually going to still be in
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  Speaker 3: the territory in two years because I've got a job
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  Speaker 3: and I feel entrenched here and don't want to take
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  Speaker 3: the risk of leaving.
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  Speaker 2: And with those people, are there certain areas from within
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  Speaker 2: Australia that they're moving from? I mean, are they capital
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  Speaker 2: cities like Sydney and Brisbane or are they other parts
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  Speaker 2: of regional Australia that they're moving from?
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  Speaker 1: Or do we not really know?
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  Speaker 3: We do know. We get that information from the census,
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  Speaker 3: and there is another sensus next this year. Actually it's
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  Speaker 3: seven to anyone already. We obviously get larger numbers absolute
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  Speaker 3: numbers coming from interstate from the big capital cities, but
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  Speaker 3: when you look at it at a per capita basis,
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  Speaker 3: we do generate, if you like, more per capita migrants
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  Speaker 3: from places like North Queensland, Northern WA and rural South
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  Speaker 3: Australia and rural New South Wales. So the thought there
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  Speaker 3: is that once you've lived rural or remote, you're more
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  Speaker 3: likely to be amenable to coming to a place like
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  Speaker 3: the Northern territory and indeed possibly more likely to be
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  Speaker 3: staying along a term.
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  Speaker 2: I had wondered that, you know, I sort of I
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  Speaker 2: figured that, you know, maybe the expectations as well of
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  Speaker 2: some of those people moving from other regional or rural
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  Speaker 2: parts of Australia. Their expectations sort of were a little
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  Speaker 2: bit more moderate or normal, I suppose, than what they
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  Speaker 2: may be if you move from a capital city like Melbourne.
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  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I guess it might be less of a
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  Speaker 3: shock because if you've lived in Cansa or somewhere around
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  Speaker 3: North Queensland, you're a used to tropical weather, you're used
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  Speaker 3: to cyclones. They might not scare you as much, and
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  Speaker 3: you've kind of lived in tropical housing and lived the
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  Speaker 3: tropical life style. If you come from Mount iSER, for example,
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  Speaker 3: and move to our springs, you've lived the desert lifestyle.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that's important. And that's also reflected in
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  Speaker 3: our overseas migrant figures before the pandemic in so far
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  Speaker 3: as the fastest growing group and the largest group of
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  Speaker 3: overseas born in our populations now those from the Philippines,
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  Speaker 3: where the climate is kind of similar.
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  Speaker 2: And Andrew Will Will this information be utilized by the
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  Speaker 2: Northern Territory government at any point, you know, when it
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  Speaker 2: comes to things like them trying to get skilled workers
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  Speaker 2: to move to the territory.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's certainly we've pointed out a number of policy
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  Speaker 3: areas where this research could be applied in processes like
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  Speaker 3: the Economic Recovery that's the TOTO Economic Discovery Commission, and
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  Speaker 3: in sort of sub areas within that, like attracting and
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  Speaker 3: retaining skilled migrants. So, for example, if we if we
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  Speaker 3: think we do now have as the research shows, a
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  Speaker 3: kind of captive early career audience, let's look at ways
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  Speaker 3: to encourage them to stay right out to five years.
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  Speaker 3: When we know from our previous research in twenty nineteen
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  Speaker 3: that the likelihood of them leading after five years drops again.
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  Speaker 3: So there's a drop off in two years of residency
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  Speaker 3: and then there's a bigger drop off in five years.
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  Speaker 3: So let's think about how we can encourage people to
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  Speaker 3: stay to that five years, especially those younger people. Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: and get them to start families and hopefully have an
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  Speaker 3: intergenerational effect on the population into the future.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely. Well, it's always good to catch up with you, Andrew.
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  Speaker 2: I really appreciate your time this morning.
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  Speaker 3: My pleasure Katy, thank you, thank you,