Latest / UK Column Radio / Trump, Xi & Iran: What the Media Will Not Tell You | Silk and Steel

Transcript

Trump, Xi & Iran: What the Media Will Not Tell You | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:01
Speaker 1: And we've got Carl Za, a historian. His channel is amazing.
0:06
Speaker 1: It goes deep in depth into the history of a
0:10
Speaker 1: number of civilizations, but he also gives his geopolitical analysis
0:14
Speaker 1: on China. We're gonna have him on in a few seconds.
0:18
Speaker 1: Miss you like, comment and subscribe to the channel. Much
0:22
Speaker 1: appreciate ed. This is gonna be an brilliant interview. Hi Carl,
0:26
Speaker 1: how are you doing? I'm great? Thank you? Can you
0:30
Speaker 1: hear me?
0:31
Speaker 2: I hear you loud and clear, marvelous.
0:33
Speaker 1: Just want to welcome Karl Za onto the show. He
0:36
Speaker 1: is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, a
0:40
Speaker 1: history podcast that basically breaks down in depth, you know,
0:44
Speaker 1: the progress of different civilizations. He also provides his geopolitical analysis,
0:48
Speaker 1: and we want to talk to him about all things China.
0:51
Speaker 1: Thanks for taking your time out to join us.
0:53
Speaker 2: How are you My pleasure, appreciate.
0:55
Speaker 1: You coming on, Carl. Donald Trump is in China, he's
0:59
Speaker 1: with President. What's your thoughts on this entire summer? And
1:02
Speaker 1: then I've got some individual questions.
1:05
Speaker 2: Well, Trump is traveling to China was incredibly we can
1:11
Speaker 2: The idea of his original China trip was he will
1:15
Speaker 2: come to China with grips on Venezuela and Iran, so
1:20
Speaker 2: he can come to Jinpin and say, hey, we got
1:23
Speaker 2: your energy partners by the balls, and you have to
1:26
Speaker 2: give us rare earth. But right now, with the ways
1:31
Speaker 2: things are going in Persian Golf, Trump has no leverage.
1:35
Speaker 2: Yet he has to go because if he backs, if
1:38
Speaker 2: he cancels the trip, and you will be obvious to everyone.
1:43
Speaker 2: He's canceling because the whole war against Iran has been
1:48
Speaker 2: a debacle, so he can't afford that. And he also
1:51
Speaker 2: is desperately looking for a different venue where he can
1:56
Speaker 2: do more photo ops to distract people from the failure
2:00
Speaker 2: that is the that is a illegal war against Iran.
2:04
Speaker 2: So this is a reason brown Trump is going. But
2:07
Speaker 2: I don't expect too many sub substantiative deals coming out
2:13
Speaker 2: of it, because, like I said, Trump would like to
2:16
Speaker 2: like China to lift its export control on rare earth,
2:20
Speaker 2: particularly against US military industrial complex, but he has nothing
2:26
Speaker 2: to trade for it. You know, he has nothing, He
2:29
Speaker 2: has no cards. It turns out all the cards are
2:32
Speaker 2: made in China, and there's no reason for China to
2:35
Speaker 2: lift the rare earth's export control on the United States
2:39
Speaker 2: because they understand once US will have the stock piles
2:45
Speaker 2: to replenish, replenish their ammunition and perhaps bring down you wrang.
2:50
Speaker 2: China will be the next target. Why would they give
2:53
Speaker 2: United States ammunition for which they can use to go
2:57
Speaker 2: against China. It doesn't make sense. What China has is
3:02
Speaker 2: actually additional leverage. If Trump does threaten to levy sanction
3:07
Speaker 2: against Chinese banks, for example, like Scott Besson had threatened
3:10
Speaker 2: to do for continuing trade with Iran, China can say, well,
3:15
Speaker 2: you know what, no rare Earth at all for you,
3:18
Speaker 2: because rare Earth is using all sector of advanced manufacturing.
3:24
Speaker 2: If China completely shuts down rare Earth to the United States,
3:27
Speaker 2: they can shut down the US car industry overnight.
3:32
Speaker 1: So looking at what you're saying, I get what you're saying.
3:37
Speaker 1: But what we saw also in addition to that car
3:40
Speaker 1: was we saw Donald Trump go into China. He took
3:43
Speaker 1: all his oligous he took big Tech, he took Silicon Valley,
3:47
Speaker 1: you name it. Everybody was on the head of MasterCard,
3:52
Speaker 1: had a visa in Nvidia. The stock market staff line
3:57
Speaker 1: immediately when he did that. Why is it He's taken
3:59
Speaker 1: his cooperation, big tech oligot class to China.
4:03
Speaker 2: Well, you'd be a shame if something happened to that plane, right, but.
4:08
Speaker 1: Yes, about we don't we don't want anything to happen
4:10
Speaker 1: to that plan. Don't know.
4:13
Speaker 2: But what happened is uh what what China? Right now? What?
4:18
Speaker 2: What Trump administration have finally realized is that decoupling from
4:23
Speaker 2: China is a fantasy. You know, they cannot do without
4:26
Speaker 2: the Chinese supply chain, They cannot do without the Chinese market. Uh.
4:30
Speaker 2: Nvidia CEO Jensen Kuang, for example, travel with Elon Musk
4:35
Speaker 2: on Air Force one with Trump. He is going because
4:39
Speaker 2: the Nvidia share market share in China has essentially fall
4:43
Speaker 2: to zero percent. And this is the result of Trump's
4:47
Speaker 2: policy during the first Trump administration. Trump is the one
4:51
Speaker 2: who started the semiconductor sanction against China, and the whole
4:55
Speaker 2: idea behind the semi conductor sanction is that if China
4:59
Speaker 2: does not get its hands on advanced in my conductors
5:02
Speaker 2: or the advanced AI chips, Chinese AI development will not
5:07
Speaker 2: be able to catch up to United States. And right now,
5:10
Speaker 2: the United States has thrown basically everything into AI. If
5:14
Speaker 2: you take away all the AI investment into building data centers,
5:18
Speaker 2: US economy will basically be in recession right now. But
5:23
Speaker 2: the AI bubble is not sustainable. This is something that
5:27
Speaker 2: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang himself must have realized. This is
5:32
Speaker 2: why they're doing voodoo stuff, like Nvidia is investing open
5:37
Speaker 2: Ai so open Ai can continue to buy more chips
5:42
Speaker 2: from Nvidia. I mean, this is a this is a
5:45
Speaker 2: circular loop. What the AI bubble reminds me is actually
5:51
Speaker 2: the dot com bubble, which I experienced when I first
5:54
Speaker 2: entered the US workforce back in nineteen ninety nine. The
5:59
Speaker 2: evaluation are sky high, but there's no profit. There's no
6:02
Speaker 2: there's no revenue that can justify that amount of investment.
6:06
Speaker 2: This is exactly the problem with h with the US
6:10
Speaker 2: AI industry right now. They're they're building tons of data centers,
6:13
Speaker 2: they're buying tons of video chips, but they're not generating
6:17
Speaker 2: enough revenue for from all these AI slop videos to
6:22
Speaker 2: justify this like five hundred billion dollars boondoggle like the
6:26
Speaker 2: Stargate project. On top of that, they don't have the money.
6:29
Speaker 2: They were hoping the GCC countries, all the golf oil
6:33
Speaker 2: chieks will fund their a high bubble. Well that's that
6:37
Speaker 2: ain't happening right now. Because you know, Kuwait hasn't sold
6:41
Speaker 2: any oil for the last couple of months since the
6:44
Speaker 2: war started, and and so so now they're getting desperate,
6:48
Speaker 2: you know, and Video now want to be back in
6:51
Speaker 2: into the Chinese market. One of the big holdup is
6:56
Speaker 2: that China in the time that in the a years
6:59
Speaker 2: that you as imposed sanctioned, they have found a way
7:03
Speaker 2: to decouple themselves from US semiconductor supply chain. The latest
7:08
Speaker 2: deep Seek V four was actually trained on Huawei assents chips.
7:14
Speaker 2: And this is why Nvidia is panicking. They want to
7:17
Speaker 2: get back in, they want to call back their Chinese
7:20
Speaker 2: market share, and they run into resistance from the Chinese
7:24
Speaker 2: government right now because the Trump administration earlier they have
7:28
Speaker 2: allowed for selling of H two hundred chips, which is
7:32
Speaker 2: not as powerful as their latest Blackwell chips. But they
7:37
Speaker 2: thought China would would take the bite. But Chinese government
7:40
Speaker 2: said no, no, Now we're not going to allow our
7:42
Speaker 2: domestic firm to use these H two hundred ships so
7:45
Speaker 2: make us be dependent on United States AI chip supply chain.
7:50
Speaker 2: Now we're not going to do that. We'd rather have
7:52
Speaker 2: everyone work from Huawei chips. So this is why Jensen
7:56
Speaker 2: Huang is going they're trying to persuade President Giging Pain
8:00
Speaker 2: to allow more Nvidia chips to be sold in China.
8:05
Speaker 2: But this is a self inflicted problem. This problem wouldn't
8:08
Speaker 2: have exist if Donald Trump didn't impose the chip sanction
8:12
Speaker 2: in the first term. And you know, like the same
8:15
Speaker 2: same with Elon Musk. Elon Musks Tesla didn't became profitable
8:21
Speaker 2: until he opened the Shanghai gig Gig factory. The Shanghai
8:25
Speaker 2: gig factory is what finally made uh Tesla into a
8:28
Speaker 2: profitable company. So he did he needs that Chinese market.
8:33
Speaker 2: Uh he needs that Chinese factory. This goes with all
8:36
Speaker 2: the other top Us oligarchs, you know, for example ge
8:41
Speaker 2: and uh G and Boying. They were doing brisk business
8:47
Speaker 2: in China, and then Trump threatened to choke off the
8:51
Speaker 2: sale of American engine to the Chinese made passenger jet.
8:57
Speaker 2: You know, again, these are all self inflicted problem. Was
9:00
Speaker 2: always open for business. Now they're trying to repair the damage.
9:04
Speaker 2: This is why the stock market has rally. And you know,
9:07
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, they they watched the stock market like hawks
9:11
Speaker 2: because they have been manipulating the market throughout the war.
9:15
Speaker 2: Like Donald Trump's family is making a killing. When Trump
9:18
Speaker 2: will put out tweets say there's negotiation, a deal is
9:22
Speaker 2: going on before the market open on Monday, and then
9:25
Speaker 2: Friday after the market closed, he said, yeah, we're gonna
9:28
Speaker 2: bomb you around back to Stone Ages Baron. Trump is
9:32
Speaker 2: probably making a killing right now. But that that's what
9:37
Speaker 2: these guys care about. These they care about the stock prices.
9:40
Speaker 2: They care about uh, you know, lining their own own uh,
9:44
Speaker 2: lining their own pockets. Uh. This is why they're going
9:47
Speaker 2: to China.
9:49
Speaker 1: No doubt they're making bag and they're making bag indeede Cayl.
9:52
Speaker 1: The million dollar question we got for you is has
9:55
Speaker 1: China the traaed Iran? And I'm gonna ask you the
9:59
Speaker 1: reason do you want to I've got I'll follow open,
10:02
Speaker 1: I'll ask you the reasoning. But the question is has
10:04
Speaker 1: China betrayed Iran? Guys, if you're on the X space,
10:08
Speaker 1: we're gonna be moving to YouTube. The tweet is in
10:11
Speaker 1: the nest. Everyone come across because Karl's is gonna answer
10:14
Speaker 1: the question whether China has betrayed Iran. We're gonna hit
10:17
Speaker 1: him from direct. So the tweet is in the nest
10:19
Speaker 1: just above us. Click on it and come across. So
10:23
Speaker 1: the reason I asked the question, KRL is this So
10:26
Speaker 1: today the White House came out with the statement and
10:29
Speaker 1: they said that China has agreed with Donald Trump. She
10:33
Speaker 1: has agreed with Donald Trump that Iran is not allowed
10:36
Speaker 1: to have control over the Strait. Iran is not allowed
10:39
Speaker 1: to have military control over the Strait, and they're not
10:41
Speaker 1: allowed to charge at all. They're not allowed to have
10:44
Speaker 1: nuclear bombs. What's your thoughts on this statement by the
10:48
Speaker 1: White House.
10:49
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I would wait for the Chinese
10:52
Speaker 2: official press release because you know, Trump administration has zero
10:56
Speaker 2: credibility at this point. They are, you know, between between
11:01
Speaker 2: the Chinese official statement and American official statement. I'd rather
11:05
Speaker 2: trust the Chinese official statement on this. I think what
11:08
Speaker 2: they probably have discussed is that China probably agree to
11:14
Speaker 2: the United States there should be no toll and there
11:17
Speaker 2: should be no any country controlling straight or movies. But
11:21
Speaker 2: now agreeing to that in principle does not equate to
11:26
Speaker 2: agree how to go about it, because China has always
11:30
Speaker 2: proposed that two side shoots said should have a peace
11:35
Speaker 2: settlement to negotiation. You know, for China's part, China have
11:41
Speaker 2: two prong interests. One interest of China. Of course, China
11:45
Speaker 2: has a traditional friendly relationship with you wrong. And China
11:49
Speaker 2: also understands, you know, after Washington is done with Russia,
11:55
Speaker 2: with you wrong, China will be the next big target.
11:58
Speaker 2: Like there's no reason for China to help Washington to
12:02
Speaker 2: take down its friendly to take down friendly countries like
12:06
Speaker 2: Russia and Iran only to have Washington Washington to be
12:10
Speaker 2: able to focus its resources on China. That that does
12:13
Speaker 2: not make sense. Now, China has additional interest in West
12:17
Speaker 2: Asia because China do have a lot of investment into
12:21
Speaker 2: in the Golf region, particularly UAE, and China do to
12:26
Speaker 2: get bulk of its crude oil shipment from the Persian Gulf.
12:32
Speaker 2: China is about eighty six percent energy self sufficient, but
12:39
Speaker 2: which means it does need to import about fourteen percent
12:42
Speaker 2: of its primary energy need. Out of that fourteen percent,
12:45
Speaker 2: half of that is crude oil. And again half of
12:49
Speaker 2: that crude oil import is coming from the Persian Golf.
12:54
Speaker 2: So Persian Golf is very important for China, and China
12:57
Speaker 2: would like to see the traffic return to pre war level.
13:01
Speaker 2: But that does not mean that China is willing to
13:04
Speaker 2: sacrifice Iran's interesting this, China has been very clear in
13:09
Speaker 2: the with their with their statement that the support Iran's
13:13
Speaker 2: fight for its territorial integrity. This is why Iranian foreign
13:18
Speaker 2: minister have visited Beijing just before the Trump visit and
13:22
Speaker 2: and this is also why Putin is coming to Beijing
13:26
Speaker 2: right after the Trump visit. So there's a certain level
13:28
Speaker 2: of coordination between China, Iran, and Russia over this and
13:34
Speaker 2: this this, This is what what they will give Trump
13:38
Speaker 2: administration is they will throw Trump some bones so Trump
13:42
Speaker 2: can claim victory, can claim a diplomatic diplomatic victory, and
13:46
Speaker 2: Trump can look good on camera. This is what Trump
13:49
Speaker 2: cares about. You know, Trump being a reality TV show host,
13:53
Speaker 2: all he talks he cares about is image projection. He
13:56
Speaker 2: wanted to project an image of success, of how he
13:59
Speaker 2: was able to will and deal with the most powerful
14:02
Speaker 2: man in the world that make him look like a
14:05
Speaker 2: world leader. You know, China will give him that. But
14:09
Speaker 2: for this, the real meat of the deal, we have
14:12
Speaker 2: to see what happens. You know, like Confucius says, listen
14:16
Speaker 2: to one's words, but watch one's action. You know, the
14:20
Speaker 2: most important thing is let's let's see if China continue
14:25
Speaker 2: the oil trade with Iraq, because China buys ninety of
14:29
Speaker 2: Uranian oil exports. And one of the things US want
14:33
Speaker 2: China to do is actually to cut off that oil
14:37
Speaker 2: trade to be able to pressure you wrong to come
14:41
Speaker 2: to terms with US demands. Now China so far has resisted.
14:45
Speaker 2: This is why United States plays additional sanction on five
14:49
Speaker 2: Chinese independent oil refiners just weeks before Trump's visit or
14:53
Speaker 2: just egene just on that just.
14:55
Speaker 1: I'm not doing to continue is in that statement from
14:58
Speaker 1: also in the White House also said that China had
15:01
Speaker 1: agreed to start buying US oil to not solely rely
15:05
Speaker 1: on the straight over Moose.
15:09
Speaker 2: What right? I mean? China will buy oil. Oil is
15:12
Speaker 2: a globally traded commodity right now China is there's much
15:18
Speaker 2: reduced supply coming out of the Persian Gulf. That means
15:22
Speaker 2: China will buy oil elsewhere on the global market. You know,
15:26
Speaker 2: China can start buying the US oil asgain as a
15:31
Speaker 2: throwing a bone to the Trump administration. There's a couple
15:34
Speaker 2: of things China will probably do. They will probably have
15:36
Speaker 2: some energy deal where China will buy some US oil
15:39
Speaker 2: and gas, and China will buy some US or soybeans,
15:43
Speaker 2: and China will buy some air Boeing airplanes. These are
15:47
Speaker 2: enough for Trump to be able to claim that he
15:49
Speaker 2: scored a great victory. He got a major deal out
15:55
Speaker 2: of Xijiping, and he then can claim for his nobel
15:59
Speaker 2: peace part. But it I mean the people need to
16:04
Speaker 2: understand them, because oil is a funible commodity. You know,
16:09
Speaker 2: when China stopped buying from Persian Gulf because it's not available,
16:15
Speaker 2: when China goes by oil elsewhere, the price will increase
16:20
Speaker 2: for everyone. You know, it doesn't matter whether China buys
16:23
Speaker 2: the oil from the United States directly or buy FUN
16:26
Speaker 2: Canada or buy FUN Africa. That you know that that
16:31
Speaker 2: means the price will rise equally for everybody. This is
16:35
Speaker 2: the reason why American farmers right now that the farm
16:39
Speaker 2: bankruptcy has gone up forty five percent in the last month,
16:42
Speaker 2: and seventy seventy percent of the US farmers now saying
16:47
Speaker 2: they cannot afford the increase in fertilizers and diesel prices
16:51
Speaker 2: because the fertilizers, particularly in nitrogen, potassium, and urea. These
16:56
Speaker 2: fertilizers are made with natural gas. Even though United States
17:01
Speaker 2: have aboundant natural gas, US is a net natural gas exporter.
17:06
Speaker 2: But because the world supply of natural gas just got
17:10
Speaker 2: cut off by twenty percent because before that was Qatar.
17:13
Speaker 2: Qatar provided the world with twenty percent of the world's
17:15
Speaker 2: natural gas. That gas is offline, and the US big
17:21
Speaker 2: oil majors rather export those expensive American LNG all over
17:26
Speaker 2: the world for big profit than to hold the price
17:30
Speaker 2: down domestically. This is why American despite abounding the natural
17:35
Speaker 2: gas in the United States, American farmers can't afford fertilizers,
17:38
Speaker 2: that can't afford diesel. This will impact equally all the
17:43
Speaker 2: people all across the globe. The only people who will
17:46
Speaker 2: win from this is big oil majors because you know,
17:49
Speaker 2: Shell just reported their quarterly earning recently. They double their
17:53
Speaker 2: profit over the last quarter and their first quarter. Only
17:57
Speaker 2: you know it's from January February to March, so there
18:02
Speaker 2: that that means the next quarterly early will even be
18:05
Speaker 2: more gamebusters. But yeah, everybody else though, have to pay
18:09
Speaker 2: for the price, no doubt.
18:11
Speaker 1: But you mentioned a couple of things that I need
18:13
Speaker 1: to kind of get some clarification on. You seem to
18:17
Speaker 1: suggest that China is going to be okay with Iran
18:21
Speaker 1: not having control of the strait of the moose, that
18:24
Speaker 1: they aren't it that they're basically in agreement with the
18:27
Speaker 1: United States of America that Iran won't be able to
18:30
Speaker 1: charge at all. Don't you think this is a problem
18:33
Speaker 1: because one of the main cards that Iran has is
18:36
Speaker 1: its sovereign control over the Strait of Omose. If China
18:40
Speaker 1: is now siding with the United States of America on this,
18:42
Speaker 1: isn't this a major issue?
18:46
Speaker 2: What China wants to do is China wants to return
18:49
Speaker 2: to the conditions before the war. You know, when there's
18:53
Speaker 2: no toe, when all the cargoes were going back and forth,
18:57
Speaker 2: and right now you're you're absolutely correct. You know, major
19:03
Speaker 2: card on your your wrong side currently is their control
19:06
Speaker 2: of the straet or home moves by choking off the
19:08
Speaker 2: oil supply that gave you wrong the leverage. But again
19:14
Speaker 2: agreeing with the in principle with United States that the
19:18
Speaker 2: uh there should be free flow of shipping across trade
19:21
Speaker 2: or hormos, it does not mean China will help United
19:25
Speaker 2: States to open the street or hormuves. There's there's a
19:29
Speaker 2: two differences. Like agreeing in principle there should be no
19:32
Speaker 2: toe and there should be no uh uh there there
19:35
Speaker 2: there shouldn't be a military control of Freido Home Moovese
19:39
Speaker 2: by Iran. It doesn't mean China is going to help
19:43
Speaker 2: United States to actually implement that, to actually open the
19:47
Speaker 2: street of Hormoves, because nobody can open the street or
19:50
Speaker 2: Hormoz right now, not not the US navy. Uh you know,
19:53
Speaker 2: only you wrong have the option to lift the blockade.
19:58
Speaker 2: Uh you know, as you say, because that's that's runs
20:00
Speaker 2: strongest card at the at the moment. So by agreeing
20:04
Speaker 2: with the United States in principle, it gives something that
20:09
Speaker 2: Trump administration can boast as a victory, diplomatic victory. But
20:14
Speaker 2: what does it mean in reality? That doesn't mean China
20:17
Speaker 2: will vote in a Yuan resolution to allow uh you know,
20:21
Speaker 2: to authorize force to open radio for moose. Now. No,
20:24
Speaker 2: that that that that we we saw that before, you know,
20:27
Speaker 2: China vetoed it and I expected that to continue if
20:32
Speaker 2: they bring up up another Yuan resolution. So again this
20:36
Speaker 2: is this is just diplomatic give and take. They will
20:39
Speaker 2: give Trump, show Trump some face, so to speak. But
20:44
Speaker 2: in substance, like I said, Confucius said, listen to one's words,
20:48
Speaker 2: but watch one's action. I do not expect China lift
20:51
Speaker 2: any fingers to help United States to open this RATO.
20:54
Speaker 1: Whose fair enough Now, another piece of news we had
20:58
Speaker 1: over the last twenty four was a large number of
21:01
Speaker 1: Chinese vessels basically were went out of the straight at Hermose.
21:06
Speaker 1: We believe there's anything from thirty to fifty vessels. In
21:09
Speaker 1: the past, only a few vessels were coming out. Now
21:13
Speaker 1: I'm hearing two different versions of events, so I want
21:15
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts. One version is Iran did this
21:19
Speaker 1: in out of fear about what was happening in terms
21:22
Speaker 1: of the US and Chinese negotiations, in order to placate
21:25
Speaker 1: the Chinese. The other version of events is that the
21:28
Speaker 1: Chinese essentially pressured Trump to allow such a large number
21:32
Speaker 1: of vessels out due to the American blockade. I don't
21:35
Speaker 1: know what your thoughts on either one of them two
21:37
Speaker 1: or if it's a third third option.
21:39
Speaker 2: I think more likely scenario is when the Uranian foreign
21:43
Speaker 2: minister went to Beijing before Trump's visit to work out
21:47
Speaker 2: some deal to allow that happens. That's the Oxen's Razor
21:53
Speaker 2: explanation of what happened, because you know, as for US
21:58
Speaker 2: allowing that happen, I mean, what's us going to do?
22:00
Speaker 2: Is US going to intercept Chinese oil tankers? That's a
22:03
Speaker 2: major escalation. I mean, like right now, US Navy is
22:08
Speaker 2: what they're doing is they're playing a cat mouse game
22:11
Speaker 2: against Uranian tankers and some on flagged so called shadow
22:16
Speaker 2: flea tanker that's carrying Uruani oil. And the way that's
22:19
Speaker 2: been done is these Uranian tankers and also the shadow
22:23
Speaker 2: Flea tanker carrying uruanning oil, as soon as they sail
22:26
Speaker 2: out of the straight or home moves, they will hug
22:28
Speaker 2: the coastline, enter into Pakistani territorial water and they will
22:33
Speaker 2: travel down to Indian territorial water. And because US Navy
22:37
Speaker 2: at this point they do not want to escalate the
22:40
Speaker 2: situation to expand to violate the territorial integrity of Pakistan India,
22:45
Speaker 2: they allow that to happen and then they wait for
22:48
Speaker 2: these tankers to exit Indian territorial water. There's a wide
22:52
Speaker 2: stretch of open water between Sri Lanka and Straight of Malacca,
22:56
Speaker 2: and that is the area where the US Navy is
22:59
Speaker 2: doing is inter But again they're being very selective. They're
23:03
Speaker 2: they're they're against Iranian tankers and the unflagged uh UN flags,
23:09
Speaker 2: the so called shadow ship tankers. They have not taken
23:13
Speaker 2: any action against Russian or Chinese tankers because that that
23:17
Speaker 2: would be a major escalation. I mean, like that, the
23:21
Speaker 2: last thing United States, last thing that Trump adminission want
23:24
Speaker 2: to do right now is spook the stock market because
23:27
Speaker 2: that's that's that's gonna that's what's gonna happen. That's gonna
23:30
Speaker 2: definitely bring this stock market tumble down. And that is
23:34
Speaker 2: very important for Trump because you know, before Trump went
23:37
Speaker 2: to Beijing, he said, look at the stock market. It's
23:39
Speaker 2: at all time high. So he can't he can't afford
23:42
Speaker 2: a like, uh, a crashing of the stock market, especially
23:48
Speaker 2: with the current US economy is already wobbling with the
23:52
Speaker 2: high energy prices. Yeah.
23:54
Speaker 1: Now, another statement made by Donald Trump was and I
23:57
Speaker 1: didn't see the original version from President G. I was
24:02
Speaker 1: running a space and I was trying to look as
24:03
Speaker 1: fast as possible, but I couldn't find it. But maybe
24:05
Speaker 1: you may be aware of it. But it seems like
24:08
Speaker 1: President G insulted America because Trump said the following he said, quote,
24:13
Speaker 1: I'm gonna read just the first paragraph because he just
24:15
Speaker 1: repeats himself. When President G very elegantly referred to the
24:20
Speaker 1: United States of America as perhaps being a decline in nation,
24:24
Speaker 1: he was referring to the tremendous damage that was suffered
24:27
Speaker 1: during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the
24:32
Speaker 1: Baden administration. And on that score, he is one hundred
24:35
Speaker 1: percent correct. Our country suffered immeasurably during that time. So
24:40
Speaker 1: essentially what he said and he goes on, apparently it
24:43
Speaker 1: seems like contextually G might have said Trump America is
24:47
Speaker 1: a decline in nation. Trump to say, face and look,
24:50
Speaker 1: look he said that. I agree with him, but he's
24:53
Speaker 1: talking about Biden's regime, not me. Now, I didn't see
24:55
Speaker 1: G's original statement on that, but that seems to be
24:57
Speaker 1: a contextually about what happened.
24:59
Speaker 2: But have you got any thought, well, I mean, this
25:01
Speaker 2: is a classical Trump right, always deflect It's never my problem,
25:06
Speaker 2: it's Sleepy Joe's problem. But we all know that the
25:10
Speaker 2: problem with the US today it's not it's not just
25:14
Speaker 2: a problem with associated with one particularly particular regime, whether
25:18
Speaker 2: it's Sleepy Joe or Crazy Trump. US is currently experiencing
25:23
Speaker 2: a secular decline. Uh, there's a whole institutional rot that
25:27
Speaker 2: has set in and we're seeing the result of that.
25:30
Speaker 2: I actually personally skeptical that Hi Jimpin would publicly calling
25:36
Speaker 2: out US as a declining power, even though it's obvious
25:40
Speaker 2: for everybody. But I don't think Xi Jinpin will be
25:46
Speaker 2: so undiplomatic as calling us a declining power during a
25:51
Speaker 2: meeting where he's hosting Donald Trump. So I think this
25:55
Speaker 2: is more Again, Donald Trump is is preemptively deflecting and
26:01
Speaker 2: and he's trying to say that, Okay, I'm the one
26:04
Speaker 2: that turns the ship around. Look, Hijinpin, respect me because
26:09
Speaker 2: they hold this, you know, they roll the red carpet,
26:12
Speaker 2: the whole the honor guard. Look at all those children
26:14
Speaker 2: waving flowers because I am a world leader like that.
26:19
Speaker 2: That has been the whole purpose of this trip for
26:21
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. It's just another opportunity for him to do
26:26
Speaker 2: photo op and to appear as as important on the
26:29
Speaker 2: world stage.
26:31
Speaker 1: So from your perspective, looking at this wall, because this
26:35
Speaker 1: is the first time we're speaking. If you look at
26:38
Speaker 1: the first we're on there seventy six I believe now
26:41
Speaker 1: on how has China helped around during this war.
26:46
Speaker 2: Well, China continued to purchase Iranian or that's that's that's
26:50
Speaker 2: the biggest assistance. Is China's throwing Iran economic lifeline similar
26:59
Speaker 2: to the road that China a play for Russia during
27:02
Speaker 2: the Russia struggle in Ukraine against NATO by by providing
27:07
Speaker 2: the economic assistance China purchasing ninety percent of Uranians oil exports.
27:13
Speaker 2: And China also is providing Iran with a necessary materials
27:19
Speaker 2: that that Iran can can go on to make jones
27:22
Speaker 2: and missiles. You know, this has been reporting Wall Street Journal,
27:25
Speaker 2: Financial Times, Bloomberg. China has been shipping chemical precursors to
27:30
Speaker 2: Iran that can be used to make to missiles. And
27:35
Speaker 2: China has been sending June part parts that could make
27:38
Speaker 2: the Jones. These are what US want China to stop.
27:42
Speaker 2: The US label these dual use items that you know
27:45
Speaker 2: that could use both for civilian or military uses. But
27:50
Speaker 2: China has not sent finished military goods at least no,
27:55
Speaker 2: we have no confirmed verification. This is the same strategy
27:59
Speaker 2: that China uh UH did during during Russia's war in Ukraine.
28:04
Speaker 2: You know, because Russia didn't need finished military goods. Russia
28:08
Speaker 2: has enough industrial capacity to make their own weapons. What
28:12
Speaker 2: they needed is the raw material to make these weapons,
28:15
Speaker 2: which that which which China is providing now. This is
28:19
Speaker 2: in contrast to what China is UH having export control
28:24
Speaker 2: on real earth's visa v US military industrial complex because
28:29
Speaker 2: there's a lot of tongues of critical minerals that go
28:31
Speaker 2: inside those Patriot missiles thirty five. Guess what that they're
28:36
Speaker 2: not getting replenished because you know, the export control is
28:42
Speaker 2: firmly in place against US military industrial complex, and this
28:47
Speaker 2: is why they are now. I saw one report that
28:52
Speaker 2: they went to some abandoned factory in France, the scavenging
28:57
Speaker 2: the old uh rare earth compos I mean, this is
29:00
Speaker 2: literally what they report about Russia. They said, Russia, We're
29:04
Speaker 2: looking looking into abandoned refrigerator looking for similar conductors. But
29:10
Speaker 2: in reality, they're going to abandon factories in France try
29:15
Speaker 2: to scavenge in some rare earth for in order to
29:18
Speaker 2: replentage their military stockpile. So I expect that to continue,
29:24
Speaker 2: you know, unless there's some surprise development, because like I said,
29:28
Speaker 2: Trump does not have any leverage in that case, he
29:31
Speaker 2: doesn't have any anything to trade for it. You know
29:34
Speaker 2: what what can China Trump trade for China in order
29:38
Speaker 2: for China to lift the rare earth band to US
29:41
Speaker 2: military industrial complex. I mean Taiwan. Taiwan is not even
29:47
Speaker 2: the United States to give so I mean united. I mean,
29:52
Speaker 2: like the only thing US can give is a promise,
29:55
Speaker 2: a promise that they will maybe not sell Taiwan, continue
29:58
Speaker 2: to sell Taiwan weapons, or promise they will not support
30:02
Speaker 2: Taiwan independence. But again, the promise from Trump administration is
30:06
Speaker 2: not worth the paper is written. Now Trump changes his
30:10
Speaker 2: mind like twenty four hours in a tweet. You can't
30:13
Speaker 2: you cannot trust this guy.
30:14
Speaker 1: True. We just got some more breaking news while we
30:16
Speaker 1: were talking, and it is basically what you said. It said.
30:19
Speaker 1: It says that Trump says that she is ordering two
30:23
Speaker 1: hundred Boeing aircrafts after Boying was originally expecting one hundred
30:28
Speaker 1: and fifty. So he's increasing the initial load of one
30:31
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to two hundred.
30:32
Speaker 2: You mentioned that, right, yep, Yeah, I mean that that
30:36
Speaker 2: those are the kind of bones that they will throw
30:39
Speaker 2: to Trump in order for him to to to claim
30:42
Speaker 2: a victory. But it's it's it's very standard. You know,
30:46
Speaker 2: every time there's a there's a summit between US and China,
30:50
Speaker 2: Chinese leader China will increase orders of Boeing. That it's
30:55
Speaker 2: I mean, it's almost to be expected. This just so
30:59
Speaker 2: both sides that you know, particularly the United States and
31:02
Speaker 2: can claim some substantial victory. Oh, Trumps can say, oh,
31:06
Speaker 2: look what I did for the American workers, more orders
31:08
Speaker 2: for Boying airplane. Well yeah, like except that, you know,
31:13
Speaker 2: he was the one that caused China to reduce the
31:16
Speaker 2: order of boy in the first place. But okay, but
31:20
Speaker 2: this is a classic Trump, right. He creates a problem
31:22
Speaker 2: and then he takes away and he claims victory.
31:25
Speaker 1: Just on that. The If you look at Trump's retrick
31:28
Speaker 1: this time, in this entire trip with China, he's been
31:32
Speaker 1: very It does seem like he's bending the knee a
31:37
Speaker 1: lot to China. He is humbling himself a lot. For example,
31:41
Speaker 1: there's a visual of a press conference and a reporter
31:44
Speaker 1: asks him, you know, how is your visit to China?
31:46
Speaker 1: And he says, oh, it was brilliant. And then they
31:47
Speaker 1: say what about ti what's your thoughts on Taiwan? And
31:50
Speaker 1: he ignoized the question. Then he's asked a follow up
31:52
Speaker 1: question about Taiwan and he once again then he walks away.
31:55
Speaker 1: So he's doing everything in his power not to upset
31:58
Speaker 1: the Chinese. What your thoughts of.
32:01
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, there's actually a big difference between Trump's
32:06
Speaker 2: last visit to China during his first term. You know,
32:08
Speaker 2: just just in this matter of eight nine years, the
32:13
Speaker 2: power differential between China and United States have already changed drastically.
32:18
Speaker 2: You know, if you look at world opinion posts, for example,
32:22
Speaker 2: now majority of the world outside of the United States
32:28
Speaker 2: recognized the China is a more responsible world leader than
32:32
Speaker 2: whatever Trump administration is. And I think now Trump is
32:37
Speaker 2: now recogniscent of that fact. So he's us his best
32:41
Speaker 2: behavior because you know, he wants to get those goodies.
32:44
Speaker 2: He wanted to get those Boying plane orders, he wants
32:46
Speaker 2: to get to those soybeing orders.
32:49
Speaker 1: He wants those deals for sure. But look at the
32:53
Speaker 1: end of the day when we look at let's just
32:55
Speaker 1: look at this in a broader sense. Now, the United
32:57
Speaker 1: States of America was a huge empire and China was
33:01
Speaker 1: indeed an emerging empire, you could probably say an emergent rival.
33:07
Speaker 1: And what we saw with this war was the complete
33:10
Speaker 1: weakness weakening of the United States empire. And so you're
33:14
Speaker 1: seeing for example, the Gulf States, you're seeing even Japan
33:17
Speaker 1: and South Korea, who Japan, as you know about, you know,
33:19
Speaker 1: had issues with China in the past. But a lot
33:22
Speaker 1: of these countries are now having to look towards China
33:24
Speaker 1: because the US was never able to defend them financially.
33:27
Speaker 1: These countries are crippling. What's your thoughts on the decline
33:30
Speaker 1: of the American Empire the possibility that this could be
33:33
Speaker 1: the emergence of a Chinese empire.
33:37
Speaker 2: Well, I mean this is all thanks to Trump, But
33:39
Speaker 2: I mean he's the one that did most to accelerate
33:42
Speaker 2: the decline of the US Empire. He propelled through this
33:46
Speaker 2: illegal attack on Iran. He propelled Iran from a regional
33:50
Speaker 2: power in West Asia into a global superpower, you know,
33:54
Speaker 2: by having the having having the control over worlds twenty
33:59
Speaker 2: per send supply of hydrocarbons, and and and he also
34:05
Speaker 2: exposed the faulty logic of the US Empire. You know,
34:09
Speaker 2: the whole premise of US imperial system in West Asia
34:13
Speaker 2: is that by hosting US basis, you know, by the
34:16
Speaker 2: GCC countries, the US is supposed to extend a security
34:20
Speaker 2: umbrella to protect them. Well, it turns out by having
34:24
Speaker 2: US basis on your soil, it's not protection, it's a liability.
34:28
Speaker 2: It makes you a target. And we saw that when
34:31
Speaker 2: all eleven US bases got rendered uninhabitable by by Iranian
34:37
Speaker 2: Jones and missiles. And this this is not a fact.
34:41
Speaker 2: That's a loss on the other so called US ally
34:44
Speaker 2: in East Asia. You know, in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines,
34:49
Speaker 2: et cetera. They they saw what happened because they they
34:53
Speaker 2: themselves host US basis on their own soil, and they
34:57
Speaker 2: can do the calculation. China has magn to more missiles
35:01
Speaker 2: and more advanced missiles than you're wrong. So in case
35:04
Speaker 2: of war breaking out over Taiwan, all these US bases
35:09
Speaker 2: throughout East Asia will be lit on fire. So and
35:14
Speaker 2: on top of that, you know, the US was rung
35:19
Speaker 2: quickly running out of missile interceptors that they have to
35:23
Speaker 2: dismantle their thatat missilet anti ballistic missile defense in South
35:29
Speaker 2: Korea in order to ship it to West Asia. And
35:33
Speaker 2: that's another you know, that's another alarm belt. South Korea
35:39
Speaker 2: fifty million population, one of the top ten world economy.
35:45
Speaker 2: Yet the United States is perfectly willing to take away
35:49
Speaker 2: those missile shields in order to protect its golden boy, Israel,
35:54
Speaker 2: because that is US priority. Nothing comes close to protect
35:58
Speaker 2: the Golden Boy. So here you have it. When when
36:02
Speaker 2: ship hits a fan, the United States will always you know,
36:05
Speaker 2: protect Israel and and screw its other allies. So why
36:10
Speaker 2: would you even be able to trust United States? And
36:14
Speaker 2: why would you even risk yourself to be a target
36:17
Speaker 2: of at the receiving end of Chinese missile broches. So
36:21
Speaker 2: this is why, uh these all other countries are now
36:24
Speaker 2: making they're now recalibrating their their security situation. And and
36:31
Speaker 2: and if if the whole straight or home moost situa,
36:35
Speaker 2: which can ever get resolved, and particularly if you get
36:38
Speaker 2: resolved to satisfy the key Iranian demands, which is withdrawal
36:43
Speaker 2: of US forces from the region, that means the end
36:47
Speaker 2: of the US Empire in West Asia. And uh so,
36:51
Speaker 2: so right now, you you know, before the war, US
36:55
Speaker 2: appeared to be this unstoppable global hedge amount that was,
36:59
Speaker 2: you know, running a mark over the globe. After the war,
37:03
Speaker 2: it turns out the emperor has no clothe. Now now
37:07
Speaker 2: US military has been exposed as the paper tiger it
37:10
Speaker 2: really is. Now we understand why in America we don't
37:13
Speaker 2: call you wrong, you wrong, Instead we say Iran.
37:19
Speaker 1: Because it's too complicated, but just actually funny enough you
37:24
Speaker 1: say that. And what we've also seen is the US
37:29
Speaker 1: military industrial complex fail in a significant manner. Now, one
37:35
Speaker 1: thing we've seen in this if you look at when
37:38
Speaker 1: the United States of America has gone to China and
37:42
Speaker 1: the vast number of oligaus and corporations that have gone
37:45
Speaker 1: with them, it demonstrates it's not demonstrat's not that's not
37:50
Speaker 1: the proof, but it's an example of the reality of
37:53
Speaker 1: the situation where the corporations and the oligaus control the country.
37:58
Speaker 1: So it's actually the corporations that are empowered the people
38:01
Speaker 1: or the government is not in power. Now the China
38:03
Speaker 1: has it the other way around. It's the government that's
38:05
Speaker 1: in power and they kind of have a control over
38:07
Speaker 1: the corporations. Now, the reason I answer this question is
38:12
Speaker 1: that because of the corporations having the level of power
38:15
Speaker 1: that they have is they're able to monopolize industries. And
38:19
Speaker 1: so the specific industry I'm talking about is the military
38:21
Speaker 1: industrial complex. And so because of the monopolization, you're seeing
38:25
Speaker 1: now that the level of military equipment that they're producing
38:28
Speaker 1: is just not up to power. The f thirty fives,
38:31
Speaker 1: many of us have out said for a very long
38:33
Speaker 1: time that they are deficient, that they have many military incapabilities.
38:37
Speaker 1: You look at the third defense interceptive missiles, or even
38:41
Speaker 1: the patriots, all of them. There's extreme weaknesses in many
38:44
Speaker 1: of these military capabilities. What's your thoughts on that in
38:47
Speaker 1: terms of the weakness and the military inter complex and
38:50
Speaker 1: this kind of over arching point I'm making.
38:52
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, who women those all these F
38:56
Speaker 2: thirty five, They're not designed to win war. They're designed
39:01
Speaker 2: to funnel money to the military industrial complex to fatten
39:05
Speaker 2: the pockets of the contractors. This is why, like like
39:12
Speaker 2: Juliansanze famously pointed out, you know, he was speaking about
39:16
Speaker 2: the war in Afghanistan. He said, the whole point is
39:19
Speaker 2: not to win the war in Afghanistan. The whole point
39:22
Speaker 2: is to wash vast sung of money from the tax
39:25
Speaker 2: basis of North America and Europe into a very into
39:30
Speaker 2: the pockets of a very small transnational security elite. And
39:34
Speaker 2: that's exactly what US military industrial complex is designed to do.
39:39
Speaker 2: It's not designed to make weapons to win worse anymore,
39:43
Speaker 2: it's designed for grift, and F thirty five is a
39:48
Speaker 2: glaring example of that. You know, it's designed to be
39:53
Speaker 2: very very expensive. It's not designed to work. And in
39:59
Speaker 2: fact that US, because it has hollowed out is manufacturing
40:03
Speaker 2: since the nineteen seventies. You know, over a period of
40:06
Speaker 2: forty fifty years now that the US military industrial complex
40:11
Speaker 2: itself has given up on making USA US Navy now
40:17
Speaker 2: is proposing to build and ritual fit their worship in
40:22
Speaker 2: South Korea and Japan because it will be far more
40:25
Speaker 2: cheaper and with better quality. And that's that's a sad
40:29
Speaker 2: state of the US economy. Everything is financialized. You know,
40:35
Speaker 2: if even if you look at Nvidia right, one of
40:39
Speaker 2: the biggest, most valuable companies in the United States, it's
40:43
Speaker 2: a design company, actually doesn't actually make anything that the
40:47
Speaker 2: chip is actually made in Taiwan by TSMC. So Nvidia
40:54
Speaker 2: itself is a design marketing company. Same same for Apple.
40:58
Speaker 2: Apple they don't make their phones in the United States.
41:01
Speaker 2: You know that they do design, marketing and branding. The
41:05
Speaker 2: actual manufacturing is done in China and some parts now
41:08
Speaker 2: in India. So that is this whole hollowing out of
41:15
Speaker 2: US manufacturing now is now hitting the US military industrial complex.
41:23
Speaker 2: This is why we're seeing the decimal performance of the
41:27
Speaker 2: US weapons system in the Corona, no doubt.
41:30
Speaker 1: Carl, I want to appreciate you taking your time out
41:33
Speaker 1: to join us. Really enjoyed you first time. How do
41:35
Speaker 1: we need to get you back on again? But where
41:37
Speaker 1: can people find your work? I know you host the
41:39
Speaker 1: Silk Steel podcast, but where else can people find you?
41:43
Speaker 2: So I do have a YouTube channel under just my
41:47
Speaker 2: name Carlsa. I'm also a prolific ship poster on x
41:52
Speaker 2: again under my handle Carlsa, so people can find me there.
41:56
Speaker 2: I'm Patreon. I host the Silk and Steel Podcast, where
41:59
Speaker 2: I primarily focused on Chinese history. Now I'm doing a
42:03
Speaker 2: chronological retelling of the Chinese history from the very beginning.
42:07
Speaker 2: Now I'm I'm a wrong like two fourteen BC around
42:10
Speaker 2: the first Chinese Empire, the unification under the first import.
42:16
Speaker 1: That sounds pretty awesome. Everyone should be following you. Thank
42:19
Speaker 1: you so much for taking your time, much to Johnny's.
42:21
Speaker 2: Really appreciate you. Thank you my pleasure, appreciate it.
42:25
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. That was Carl Zah. What a
42:27
Speaker 1: great interview. First time we had him on. I liked
42:30
Speaker 1: him a lot, Real good knowledge, real good information. Make
42:34
Speaker 1: sure you follow in his YouTube channel in depth history
42:37
Speaker 1: of China. Also follow his Patreon and his ex as well.
42:42
Speaker 1: What a great conversation. Like comment and subscribe.
42:46
Speaker 2: Like this video.
42:48
Speaker 1: Comment in this video the main section and subscribe. What
42:51
Speaker 1: do you think do you think China has portrayed Iran?
42:55
Speaker 1: Or do you think do you agree with what Kyl
42:57
Speaker 1: had to say? Do you think this is just your
43:00
Speaker 1: politique a way of kind of dealing with Trump, keep him,
43:04
Speaker 1: keep him, keeping him happy, without really giving him anything substantive.
43:09
Speaker 1: Let's see what he's gotta say. I mean, I enjoyed
43:11
Speaker 1: this interview. I think he was a great, great conversation
43:14
Speaker 1: that it was Carl, So like, comment and subscribe, right.
43:19
Speaker 1: What we're gonna do and subscribe, subscribe, subscribe notifications on all. Okay,
43:27
Speaker 1: much love to every one of you. What we're gonna
43:29
Speaker 1: do is we're gonna be ending this stream and I'm
43:34
Speaker 1: gonna send you to the what do you call it? Again?
43:39
Speaker 1: Let me get this. I'm gonna send you to the
43:42
Speaker 1: interview that we did with Simon Dixon. Was a brilliant interview.
43:48
Speaker 1: So everyone come across there. I'm just about to pin
43:51
Speaker 1: it unless someone does it before me. And yeah, everyone
43:56
Speaker 1: coming across there. If you already saw the interview, fine,
44:00
Speaker 1: just give your boy some support and watch it again.
44:02
Speaker 1: If you didn't, it's definitely worth watching. Really good information.
44:06
Speaker 1: It's their pinned everyone come across that. Appreciate you guys
44:11
Speaker 1: joining in, Appreciate you guys listening, and for sure we'll
44:15
Speaker 1: see you next time.