Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - No Reset This Time + Stock Market News 12 November 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - No Reset This Time + Stock Market News 12 November 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not prepared, your 401k and retirement savings are literally about to be tested in ways most investors don't see coming.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, seven companies are spending$330 billion this year alone on something that may or may not pay off.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: And we are watching literally the same pattern that destroyed portfolios in 2000 when I started investing, play out once again, but this time it's AI, not the internet.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the warning signals are literally flashing at you, but Wall Street keeps telling you everything is just fine.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: So if you invest in the SP, which most of you will be, either directly or free retirement funds, literally 36% of your investments are right now tied to whether this AI boom is a bubble or not.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: The difference between protecting your wealth and losing literally decades of gains comes down to understanding what's happening.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: So my promise is this is not a doom and gloom video, but by the end of this video, you'll know the three hidden forces driving this bubble, why the smartest investors are getting a little nervous and moving, and exactly what you can do to protect yourself while still profiting from the AI opportunity.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a big opportunity.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Felix Prinum, an ex-investor and banker who's seen how the money markets work from the inside.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: I've lived through the dot-com crash.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's when I started investing.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: I lived through 2008 financial crisis and every bubble in between.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm also the founder of the GOAT Academy, where we've taught over 20,000 students to learn to navigate these kinds of markets.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also the co-founder of TradeVision.io, where we help everyday investors cut through the Wall Street noise, give you the news that matters, give you the data that matters.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: So my retirement job is to show you what's really happening behind the scenes.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: You can make smarter decisions with your hard-earned money.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now picture this.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's 1998, the internet is exploding, new companies with catchy.com names are popping up everywhere, and everyone thinks they found the next Microsoft.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Investors are throwing money at anything, the dot com in the name.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't matter if they have a business plan or not.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: So the euphoria is this.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: For two years, portfolios are going up and up and up and up.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Your neighbors think you're a genius for buying tech stocks.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's convinced this time is different because the internet is revolutionary, which is true.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then March 2000 hits like a freight train.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: The Nasdaq literally dropped 80%.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Not a typo, 80%.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: Bill Gates loses 1.8 billion in a single week, and only 48% of those companies survive.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: That means half go bust.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: I lost half my money back then.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know what the heck I was doing.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, the internet was revolutionary, but that didn't stop the bubble from bursting.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: If you fast forward to today, I'm feeling the same energy again, but this time it's not the internet's AI.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: People are calling it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'm guilty of that too, because it is.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: But as Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: So every generation thinks they've found a new era.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: But as the great John Templeton warns us, the four most expensive words in investing are this time it's different.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: I guess actually five words, but go with it.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: So the question is, is this time actually different?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's look at the three hidden forces behind this potential bubble and what you can do about it.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Before we dive into the first hidden force, I need to show you something that could change how you literally invest forever.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: The way I learned was from my boss, an investment bank, and then from mentors that I paid since, who were tremendous people who worked for places like Goldman Sachs and Bestern and Deutsche Bank and the big investment banks and the big hedge funds.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And they not only gave me the rules that I use every week, but also they taught me experience.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: They looked at what I was doing and they spotted the big glaring error that I hadn't seen yet.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And what we're doing this week is bonkers because I never really discount in our mentorship program.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: But that's the simple reason that I think we should focus on over-delivering, not on the price point, because that's actually going to change people's lives.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: But my guys have convinced me that Black Friday is apparently real.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: That was a Black Friday gout.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Don't really see that in this part of the world, but apparently it's a true thing.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: So we are doing a crazy offer.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to participate and benefit from that crazy offer, well, now is your chance.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: You can literally book a free strategy call with my team.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Zero charge, zero risk at phelixfriends.org slash freedom.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: My hope is it'll get you to your freedom.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And you can ask us all the questions you always wanted to ask us about how this works and is it the right thing for you?
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: And what do we actually do and so on, which in a nutshell is you get access to a bunch of retired investing bankers who are the nicest and kindest and most patient people in the world who will make you into a better investor.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's really the promise.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: So go to the link, it's down below, phoenixfriends.org slash freedom.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: But let's look back at the warning signs here.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So right now, the fate of your portfolio is being decided by seven companies.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The magnificent seven, they're called.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, which is Google, Meta, Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: They make up 36%, some say even say 40% of the SP 500.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: So if you own any index fund, you're already betting on these guys.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: So why does it matter?
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, even if you only own one share of an SP index fund, well,$36 of that dollar is riding on these companies.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: So your retirement, your college funds, your financial future, it depends on how this AI arms race plays out.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: So the way these guys spend money, it ripples to the market from chipmakers to energy companies to your 401k.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me show you the insane amount of money these guys are spending right now.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Tesla, 5 billion autonomous driving and XAI.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Apple, 10 billion to make Siri actually useful.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck with that one.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then Meta spending an extraordinary amount of 60 billion data centers and the metaverse, don't forget about that.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Google, about 75 billion on AI.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft, about 80 billion, funding OpenAI, building supercomputers.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon, about 100 billion on AWS infrastructure.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: So that's about$330 billion right there.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's in one year.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: That is more than the entire GDP of a lot of big countries.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: These companies are spending more than entire countries produce to win the AI race.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: And this is basically what's keeping the US economy alive.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Like it's it's a it's a it's the thing that keeps the economy booming.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: So everything is being propped up just by these seven guys betting hundreds of billions of dollars on a technology that isn't really fully proven yet to make money, right?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: So how long can this last?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Good question.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna accelerate next year to 500 billion.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: Spending on electricity and power for AI could drop$3 trillion annually.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's how desperate these guys are to win.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: And to quote the um great Mark Zuckerberg, he literally said if Meta ends up misspending$200 billion, it's worth it.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy, hey?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: So they're just taking insane risk because they don't want to lose.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: So the question is, where is all this money actually coming from?
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: And more importantly, is it real money or are these companies just passing the same dollar back and forth?
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that brings us to the second hidden false, and this is important.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Take a screenshot or write some notes here.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when I first saw this, I was like, I can't believe this is true.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the main reason I'm getting more worried about the AI industry.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um, it's called the AI money machine.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: How does this work?
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a compliment, by the way.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's a system in how this works.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: So let's break it down.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Chip designers, say Intel AMD and NVIDIA, well, they design the chips that power the AI models, right?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: And then you've got companies like OpenAI, XAI, other players, they buy these chips to build the AI systems.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: You've got data centers like Oracle, Core Weav, they also buy the chips and then they lease computing power to AI companies.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: So they're kind of the middlemen.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: So at first glance, nothing seems weird about that, right?
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Companies buy products, normal businesses, services being sold.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: But once you look at how the money actually flows between these companies, you start to see some red flags.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: You get this circular money flow.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: If you follow the money with me, and look at this.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: This is step one here.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is step one.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft gave OpenAI$58 billion in funding.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now, step two, OpenAI pays that money back to Microsoft for access to their data centers.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: So the money just went from here to there and basically back to Microsoft.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Step three, what happens?
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Microsoft, this is step three.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft now uses that same money to buy Nvidia chips.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: And then so the money flows back to Microsoft here, and then Microsoft buys these NVIDIA chips, so the money goes back to NVIDIA, and NVIDIA then invests that money back into OpenAI.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, why is this problematic?
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: Each company records that money flow as revenue.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: That revenue pushes the stock price up, but it's basically the same money going around in a circle.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine this.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine I go into the woods with a friend.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: I pay him$1,000 to dig a hole.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: He pays me$1,000 to fill it back in, right?
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: We're not burying any bodies here, don't think anything's strange.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now we both now have$1,000 in revenue.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: So if we were valued like OpenAI, OpenAI is valued at 40x revenue.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Our whole digging and filling business would be worth$40,000 each.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Does that make sense?
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: No, of course not, right?
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm digging a hole, he's filling it in all the other way around, nothing new value created.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: But that's essentially what's happening.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this has gotten even crazier lately because OpenAI announced a$300 billion deal with Oracle.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Oracle immediately says that they'll spend tens of billions of dollars on Nvidia chips, and NVIDIA agrees to invest$100 billion back into OpenAI.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the catch.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: To unlock that investment, OpenAI is to buy more NVIDIA chips.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: So who's the winner?
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there's really only one winner here.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's NVIDIA.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: They are just crushing this game.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: Their share price is up 1600%.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um, their chips are sold to everybody, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, everybody.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: And they invest back into the same companies that buy their products.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: This is like paying your customer to buy your product.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: It artificially inflates demand.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: So think of it this way: Nvidia sells the shovels to Oracle, Oracle provides the land, OpenAI digs the quarry, and they're all helping each other lure people into the mines.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: But nobody struck gold yet, you see.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: So the core problem is that OpenAI is valued at$500 billion, but it's only making about$12 billion in revenue.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: And it's losing money every single month.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: So the math doesn't really end up.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: AI services are not making enough money right now.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: The revenue doesn't justify the valuations, but everybody's betting on future profits that may or may not come.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: So can they actually make money?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's possible.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: They have some huge levers that they can pull, advertising, right?
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Seven or no people use ChatGPT, they're gonna roll that out.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's massive.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it's an enormous amount of data that they've got.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: So imagine when Sam Ortman turns on ads and allows companies to recommend products directly inside your conversations.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: It could be like nothing we've ever seen before.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: It could be more targeted, it could be better than Google and Facebook.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now, they also announced that they're gonna start allowing adult content and erotica in chats, right?
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's a huge industry, apparently.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: So it is literally, yeah, and they're building systems that are designed to undercut the human workforce.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: So they're betting that once corporations become dependent on AI, they'll have no choice but to keep paying them.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: And that's when AI companies could hype their prices and finally cash in on this, you know, it's the classic like drug dealer thing, isn't it?
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Get them hooked, then raise the prices strategy, like the chap at the corner.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: So there is no doubt these AI companies are valuable.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: But much of that value depends on one thing, the belief that progress will keep accelerating, which brings us to the third force, which is the AI data wall.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now, typically what happens with an innovation, you have an expectation that things will expand very rapidly.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: And then you get a disappointment where that progress slows down, and then you actually have the real progress happening, but it takes much, much longer, but it does a lot more than people were ever imagining.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: In my humble opinion, we're somewhere here.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I believe the disappointment is going to kick in at some point, and once it does, that's the moment where we actually make a killing.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: You want to wait for the moment where expectations collapse, or at least be able to at that point put some money in the market.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I'm not saying you should sit on the sidelines in the meantime, but I'm just saying that's what I'm waiting for.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: So I am relatively light on AI.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I still have it obviously in my index funds and so on.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: You can't avoid the bloody stuff.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at this, what we are right now, just objectively, step back from all the noise.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: We have 40 times revenue multiples of some companies with no profits.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: You have this revenue circle, yeah, where open AI gives money to Oracle, Oracle gives money to NVIDIA, NVIDIA gives money to open AI.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's just, just, it's just pass the parcel.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Um, nations are spending a lot of money on AI because they're treating it like warfare.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that might be the one thing that might actually bail us out.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: And Sam Altman has already asked for subsidies.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: But at some point, you're gonna hit a data wall because by next year, AI will have absorbed all the data there is.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: All the data there is, there's no more data.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's the advantage then?
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then it's gonna be a price fall, right?
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna use whatever AI is cheapest.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: Don't care who makes it, just care that it's cheapest.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I think at that point, we might get a little bit of an issue with valuations.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, what do we do here?
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: Five steps.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: Keep investing.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: Don't stop investing.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: Just realize that you're very AI centric.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have an if you have a 401k or you have an SP index fund or Nasdaq index fund, you're already very, very heavily invested in AI.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: So with your additional stock picking, if you do that, maybe don't focus on AI.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because you already, 40% of your money is already in AI.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: So you might want to go and buy some other stocks.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: We did a video, I think, yesterday, and we were talking about some very, very different sectors.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Step number two is increase your income.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's the biggest lever you actually have.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's not that it is the thing you don't want to do, which is bring in more money.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Ask for pay rise, get a sidekick, start a little business, do something, right?
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: Diversify.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I was hinting at that just and I was explaining point one.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure you have an emergency fund.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Six to twelve months is a sort of typical number that people throw out there.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you want it higher if you only have one income stream in your household, a little bit less, maybe if you have multiples.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that emergency fund could also be partially used at least to buy the crash when it comes.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: There will be a crash, it's inevitable at some point.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: And use this time to educate yourself because that's actually the real lever you have.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's in here.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's a skill you have, the skill you can pass on to generations.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what I'm most excited about.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why I do this, so that more people educate themselves.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: And the offer there still stands.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: You can book a free strategy call with my team at phelixfriends.org slash freedom and actually chew through how mentorship works with you know real Wall Street goats.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: So, strategy-wise, maybe take a screenshot of that.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Auto-invest absolutely into the index.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Buy the crashes.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: When everybody panics, you want to jump in.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: Don't ever use leverage.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: Never borrow money in your portfolio because that's the one thing that'll knock you out when the market crashes.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: It'll force you to sell at the worst possible moment.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, this is a possible um portfolio allocation.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Again, not financial advice, just as sort of guidance, something to think about.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, stocks, I think, should be the vast majority of it for most people.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, bonds can bring more stability.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: The older you get, the more you might want to shift, shift to more stable uh investments.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think an inflation hedge or some precious metals is a good idea.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um, personally, there are some issues with storage and insurance and in transaction costs and so on, but I think it's generally a good idea.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: So, somewhere in that line, this is where I would be sitting.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the most important thing, in my humble opinion, is invest in this.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: Invest in your skills.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: It's like a skill like any other money management.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: So go to feeduxfriends.org slash freedom, uh book yourself a call, and if you got some value out of this, share it with someone.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: You might get some value out of it too.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching.