Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / Nobody Lives at the Average: The 13-Day and 40-Day MarketTwo Santa Clarita homeowners can hear the same market headline and experience two completely different markets. One home sells over asking after a median 13 days. Another sells under asking after a

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Nobody Lives at the Average: The 13-Day and 40-Day MarketTwo Santa Clarita homeowners can hear the same market headline and experience two completely different markets. One home sells over asking after a median 13 days. Another sells under asking after a · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Two people typed two different questions on my website this week and they were asking the same thing.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: So one typed, is now a good time to sell in Santa Clarita.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the other one typed how many homes are selling right now.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's the same question, two directions, and the market gave both of them one answer this week, and it's two numbers, thirteen and forty.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: So hold on to those.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be coming back to them.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever you happen to be tuning in, this is the Santa Clarita Real Estate Daily Show, and every number I read to you today came off of my main system at Santa Clarita Openhouses.com at 820 this morning, Pacific Standard Time.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Straight out of the CRMLS, the same database every agent in this valley actually works from.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to keep the numbers.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to keep the numbers to the ones that change what you do this week.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: And everything else is on the site by city.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to go deeper, buyers first, because the buyers got the bigger news yesterday.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Mortgage News Daily of the 30-year fixed at 6.97% as of yesterday, September 9th.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's up eight hundredths in one day.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Max Weekly Survey, which lags, had 6.71 for the week of September 3rd, and the new weekly number lands today.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Two different measurements, and the daily one is closer to what a lender quotes you this afternoon.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: On the Valley Median, which is$801,$801,000 over the last 30 days, 20% down,$640,800 financed.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: 30 years, that 6.97% comes to about$4,250 a month in principal and interest.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: At 6.71, it was$4,139.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: So the rate move of last week is about$111 a month on the same house.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Not a crisis, but it is real money.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Why did it move?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the Fed meets next Wednesday, September 16th.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: As of Tuesday, the CME FedWatch tool had traders putting roughly 60% odds on a quarter point hike.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: A hike, not a cut.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's a market bet, not a forecast.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And it swung from 44% a month ago to 66 to 58 back to 60.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: So treat it as weather.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow morning at 8.30 Eastern, the August inflation number comes out.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: July was 3.4%.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if August comes in hot, that bond market will price it before the Fed ever votes, which is the part most people get backwards.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Your mortgage rate doesn't wait for the meeting.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: It moves the day the news hits, and actually it already moved.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: So here's the buyer's move, and it's not complicated.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: You want to run your payment at today's rate on the house you actually want.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if it works, the calendar is not a reason to wait because a quarter point either direction is about$100 a month on the median.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: And you can live with$100 a month in most cases.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if it doesn't work, no rate prediction should talk you into it either.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: So decide on the payment, not the headline.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: And this weekend is a big one.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: 154 open houses across Saturday and Sunday, 86 on Saturday, 68 on Sunday.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Saturday still winning.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Used to be when I started back in 98.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Sundays were the only day.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, it's changed.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia alone has 71 on the board.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: 100 of them run between 12 and 2 in the afternoon.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to see six houses, you have a two-hour window and a scheduling problem.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I would plan Saturday backwards from noon and start with the one furthest from where you happen to be staying or living.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now, one more thing for buyers: 211 new listings hit the valley in the last seven days, 60 of them in Valencia.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's next weekend's list already loading.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: A third of what your tour next Saturday hasn't been photographed yet.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: So check the site Friday, not Monday.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: On what things actually sold for, because this tells you how to write an offer of the 189 homes that closed in the last 30 days with a full price record, 54 sold over asking, 44 sold right at asking, and 91 sold under asking.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: So call it a half under, a quarter at, and a quarter over.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 90 days, when a home sold under asking, the typical gap was about$15,000.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: And when it sold over, that typical gap was about$11,000.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is your negotiating map.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: There's room on about half of the houses.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: There's competition on about a third.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Your agent's job is to tell you which one you are standing in before you write the number.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, sellers, here's the board.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: 834 active listings across the Santa Cruita Valley this morning.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: 103 of those have had an offer entertaking backups.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: 199 are in escrow, 198 closed in the last 30 days.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Divide the active by the closed, and you get 4.2 months of supply, which is balanced.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's a balanced market.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Under four favors the seller.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Over six months favors buyers, and the valley as a whole is sitting somewhere in the middle, right there.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, that's 4.2%.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: But the valley as a whole is not what you own.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: If you own a single family home, there are 490 of them active against 149 that closed last month, with its 3.3 months, and that favors you if you're in a single family residence.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you own a condominium, 204 active, gauged against 25 closed in 8.6 months, that favors the buyer.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Same valley, same morning.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: A house and a condo are two different markets, and they need two different pricing strategies.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: All right, 13 and 40.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 30 days, the homes that sold over asking took a median of 13 days to go into contract.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: The homes that sold under asking took 40.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a report card on anybody, just the shape of the market.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the homes that hit the number buyers were already looking for moved in two weeks, and that home and the homes that needed a conversation took about six.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to say something about days on market because I got a call this week from a homeowner who was worried that a listing sitting a while meant something was wrong with the house.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: I want to be completely clear.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: It does not.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: A home at 45 or 50 days is not broken.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: It might be in a price span with fewer buyers this month.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: It might be a one-of-a-kind property that needs that one-of-a-kind buyer.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: It might be a seller who doesn't need to hurry and is right not to.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now, days on market is a number buyers see next to the price, and it tells a buyer, what it tells a buyer is that there might be a conversation to have.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: What it is for a seller is a check-in point.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Somewhere around 30 days, sit down with your agent, look at three things, how many showings, what's the feedback saying, and what closed nearly in the last 30 days, then decide together.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes the answer is to hold solid where you are.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes it's to adjust.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Both are legitimate.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: So 92 sellers in this valley adjusted their price in the last seven days.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: About one in nine active listings, and the average adjustment was around$25,000.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a normal week.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: That is people reading the room, not people failing.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: The city, I said I would take apart today, is Valencia, and it's the busiest square mile in the valley right now.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: 242 active listings, 76 closings in the last 30 days, which is 3.2 months of supply.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: A seller's market by these numbers completely indicated.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-day medium is$809,000 at$434 a foot, which is$16 a foot above the Valley.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the median Valencia home went into contract in about 24 days.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's eight days faster than the Valley, totally.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: 71 open houses this weekend 60 new listings in seven days.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia has the most competition and the most buyers at the same time, and that's why it moves.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Over 90 days in Valencia, about a quarter of sellers got over asking.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: A third got exactly asking, and 43% took less.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: That typical gap in either direction was$11,000 to$15,000.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: So a Valencia seller who prices to the last 30 days of closings on their own street, that's going to be fine.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: And a Valencia buyer should expect at least one other offer on anything clean under 900 grand.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now, one more city briefly, because I owe it a fair word.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Castac, 55 active listings, 3.7 months of supply, and over the last 90 days, 24 of the 48 homes that closed there sold for more than asking.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Half.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's the valley average, is 29%.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: Castac has the second highest share of VA buyers in the valley at 6.4%.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: And VA buyers over the last 12 months closed in a median of 26 days at full asking price.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're selling in Castac and a VA offer comes in, not a complication.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's a Tuesday.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: Who's buying?
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: One line.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 12 months, over 60% of buyers used a conventional loan, 12% FHA, 11% cash, 5% VA, cash closed at 98.7% of asking.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody else closed at 100.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, cash doesn't pay more.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: Cash pays faster and it uses the speed to ask for a little off.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: Off the top, if you will.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if a cash offer comes in under your number, that's the model, not an insult, and you can counter it.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: So let me hand you the other side of all of this because it's definitely real.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: 199 homes are in escrow this morning, nine more than a week ago.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: Houses are still selling in two weeks when the price is right.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: Race went up, rates went up, and buyers are still at open houses, 154 of them this weekend.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be hosting one on Wilderness in Castac.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Go to Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Be there Saturday, 12 to 3.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Come see me.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Let's have a conversation.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: There is no crash in this data.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: There's a market that asks you to know your payment if you're buying and to know your street if you're selling.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now, tomorrow I'm going to go into Saugas.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's because it's the tightest market in the valley this morning at 2.8 months of supply.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to see what that actually looks like house by house.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: The market average is where a house and a condo go to cancel each other out.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody lives at the average.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Know your own number.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: Every number I read you is on Santa Clarita, openhouses.com, by city, buy property type, updated every morning and actually every hour, sometimes sooner.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: And if you want to talk about where your own house is, well, that's where you find me.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Be safe out there, and I'll see you tomorrow.