Latest / Sharp China Podcast / Sharp China: China's Global Strategy; Tragedy on the Nepal-Tibet Border; A 19-1 Vote at the G-20; TikTok Dodges Congress

Transcript

Sharp China: China's Global Strategy; Tragedy on the Nepal-Tibet Border; A 19-1 Vote at the G-20; TikTok Dodges Congress · Sharp China Podcast

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome back to another episode of Sharp China.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Andrew Sharp and on the other line, Bill Bishop.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: Bill, how you doing?
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm good, Andrew.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: How are you?
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Hope everyone's doing well.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: You're doing better than Steve Ballmer.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a start here.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, better in terms of legal bills, not better
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: All things considered.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: But a better week than Steve Ballmer, probably.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: We're here on a genuinely disgusting day here in Washington, D.C.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: Just had a fun five-minute conversation about the state of the Los Angeles Clippers.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: But Bill, we will turn to the show.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: We had Xi in Bishkek for the SCO Summit this week.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: He also visited Egypt for a state visit with Egyptian President al-Sisi.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: There was not much interesting from those challenges.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: The latest issue of China Leadership Monitor has an interview with Steve Song and Olivia Chung.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: Authors of a new book on China's global strategy under Xi Jinping.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm going to read one of their answers that you highlighted on cynicism this week.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: They were asked, And they answered,
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: China's global strategy has a dual pivot.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Its primary pivot is to engage the global south,
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: which constitutes a clear majority of the world's countries and population,
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: to secure support for China to steadily reshape the existing international order.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'll see you next time.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: He says,
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: So I wanted to read that into the record because I thought that was
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: an excellent articulation of PRC objectives under Xi.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: There were a few different beats that struck me,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: but what comes to mind when you see that answer?
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: No, I think first of all, I bought the book.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: I've not yet read it, but I'm looking forward to reading it.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think that it certainly I think is a good starting point for talking about those goals.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we're in the sort of what China wants season.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: And so lots of people are trying to give their take on what China wants.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: And people have answered that the wrong way.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, certainly there was that International Security Journal article last year
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: that was just a really poor piece of scholarship that I think,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: the latest issue,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: we can put a link to it,
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: the latest issue,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: the summer issue that came out over the,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: I guess, when we were on our Beta Hill break, had multiple scholars.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, Rustoshi was one of those.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: There are a whole bunch of,
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: six or seven who really pushed back on their article and pointed out the problems.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway,
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: back to this interview and this book,
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think that the way they're describing how China sees the evolution and the changes
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: in the international order, I think disrespected.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Their explanation makes a lot of sense.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, why would China want to take on all the costs and burdens that the U.S. has?
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: They understand very clearly the downsides,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: but they can reshape from within by using the existing order when it suits them.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously,
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: they haven't adhered to their language around international law
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: and international order.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's sort of a rules for the, but not for me situation.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: When it comes to, say, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, right?
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: When it comes to the arbitral proceedings over the Philippines.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like rules for the, but not for me, right?
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Which, again, is the U.S. approach.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, let's be clear.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: This is what great powers do.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Let's not pretend that the U.S.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: adheres to the whole sort of It sounds nice, but I mean, you know.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Has always been something of a fiction, but particularly lately.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: When you're on the side making the rules, you want to say it's a rules-based order.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: When you're on the side that's not, you want to say there are no rules or you want to criticize.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, that's just how it is.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, everybody should be realistic.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: I do think, though, that,
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: the last point that you read,
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: which is key, though,
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: is really that Being embraced as the preeminent power suffices
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: as it will already ensure that China's Communist Party system cannot be challenged.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that ultimately, I think, is the key point, though.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's really about, you know, it's a little bit cliched.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Other people have used it for years,
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: but making China safe,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: making the world safe for China's political system,
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: making the world safe for the Communist Party.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: you see that with the transnational repression and the transnational censorship and
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: the transnational pressure.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Even today,
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: there's You know,
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: there's a big art show at the Gwangju Biennial in South Korea
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: that China has now said they're going to boycott because there's a Taiwan pavilion.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, wow.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you know, it's a little...
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, we know why they do this, but...
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: Right, it's not surprising.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's very consistent.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: No matter what country you're talking about,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: there's transnational repression that they're engaged in all over the world.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, it is ultimately in service of political security at the end of the day.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, again, this interview goes on to talk about this concept of Tianyang.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: there's a little bit of overdoing some of the sort of traditional thinking,
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: but they had a previously good book about Xi Jinping...
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Again, it's hard to write about these topics and be 100% right,
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: but I think in general it was a good contribution to the literature.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm guessing that this one will be as well.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: and reading their answer there, I mean,
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of people,
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: the reason it's worth highlighting is because a lot of people in the West,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: they have been thinking more and talking more about China over the last four
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: or five years.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: And a lot of people in the United States imagine China And one of the things
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: What's interesting is one of the key ways that China benefits from
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: the global south is by using those countries to reshape global institutions
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: that would otherwise serve as a check on problematic PRC behavior.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Like that is literally what happened when people tried to challenge the PRC status
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: as a developing nation at the WTO.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: And so for countries in the West,
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: it kind of requires rethinking how we view those global institutions
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: and how much deference we give those institutions.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, the moment in history with the Trump administration.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the Trump administration wants to undo, like, much of the Americans in Germany.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: The Trump administration is all about all the burdens that has come with leadership
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: and people are getting free rights.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Certain elements of the Trump administration, yeah.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the Trump administration approach to much the global south,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think certainly gives even more openings for China.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's an interesting moment in history.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, as she keeps saying, changes are-
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: Unseen in 100 years.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and like the the other thing that maybe isn't apparent to many people in
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: the United States is how much political security still drives everything that
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: the party does.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: And like upending the U.S.-led liberal order and entrenching itself as a new type
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: of global hegemon,
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: First and foremost,
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: the US liberal order is understood by the party as a threat
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: to their political security.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: The US has always been a threat to the Communist Party.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and they've been making some headway as far as upending the liberal order,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: at least the US dominance of some of these institutions.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: But again,
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: they don't,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: they're obviously building up,
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: they're building the military up, they're building a Blue Order Navy.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: They are, you know, it's clearly the building of Navy that is suited for global operations.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: It takes time,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: but they also,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: the way they build up their,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: But binding most of the world to its industrial supply chains,
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: which is an explicit strategy,
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: building out all these different,
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: this lattice work of controls,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: export controls around critical minerals,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: rare earths, et cetera, and other types of goods.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: They can exert a lot of power economically.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: Without using their military that they've been building up over the last 25 years.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: And get countries to fall into line on issues they care about just by flexing economically.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: 100%.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: They can and have.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: So we shall see.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: But in any event, I wanted to highlight that.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, real quick, she did, in fact, meet with Vladimir Putin at the SCO in Bishkek.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: We discussed that on last week's show.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, Obviously, he also met with the Egyptian president.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: He said in Egypt,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: we must uphold the principle that the people of the Middle East are the masters
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: of their own affairs,
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: oppose external interference and support regional countries
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: in strengthening dialogue on peace and security.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: So a not subtle reference to the United States and the war in Iran there.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: Was there anything notable from the readouts of those meetings?
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: It all looked fairly boilerplate to me.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: From the SEO meeting,
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: there were no readouts of meetings with Iran president.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: One of the Iran news services said they had a meeting,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: but it would look like they stood next to each other.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: It looked like they passed.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: And there was nothing about a meeting with India's Prime Minister Modi.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: The assumption, though,
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: is that she will be actually on the road again in about...
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're recording on the 4th, no, the 3rd, right, of...
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: It's the 3rd.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's the 3rd of September.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Great podcasting here.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: We both try to figure out what day it is.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, right.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: On the 13th, I think he'll be in India for the BRICS meeting.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: So the assumption is they'll meet there.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: Traveling man these days.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't go to BRICS last year, right?
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then he'll be in all signs or he'll be in D.C. on the 20...
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think he may be rising on the 23rd, late at least, 25th.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: Still waiting for our invitation to a banquet of some kind.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: Which we now,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: now does sound
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: like there's going to be a state dinner, but we,
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: President Trump said yesterday there are only 90 seats
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: because his ballroom hasn't been built and the Chinese want 60 of them.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: And so I guess we're not getting- And those extra 30, those will be expensive seats, I imagine.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: don't joke that those might be parts,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: some of those may go up for sale on a sort of an internal version of StubHub.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: it's sad,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: but I have no doubt-
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: I have no doubt that some sort of scheme is being undertaken
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: as we podcast here.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, on that note- Just pay
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: in crypto.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: Just pay in whatever the USD, whatever that coin is.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: I have no idea.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: I forget what the UAE situation is.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: We'll be right back.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: The news and video from this disaster is some of the most heartbreaking
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: and disturbing media I've seen in recent memory.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: How is the PRC responding to the crisis?
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, this is just such a horrible tragedy and the poor people.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you see this tsunami of rocks and mud and water.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's awful.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: Some people just had no chance.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's interesting because...
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Nepal basically has a free press and foreign journalists are all over Nepal at
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: the border.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: And so you're getting,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: much more detailed reports of the devastation and tragedies from the Nepal side.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: China, you know, China has a playbook for disasters.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: They lock down information pretty quickly,
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: and then they really start only allowing official reports to come out.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: That is magnified or exacerbated by Tibet, which is always Mm-hmm.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: This is extremely sensitive politically.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: And so Tibet is even more sensitive now than it has been.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so then you layer that on with this horrible disaster.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so you really have a real crackdown on anything but official reports about how
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: the Chinese side is responding to the disaster in Tibet.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Most accounts say that this was some sort of a glacier,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: part of a mountain collapse in Nepal, and then this river sort of winds through.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's called the Trishuli River in Nepal,
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: but then in the Tibetan it's the Chiryong or Zilong in Chinese, right?
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: It starts in Tibet, then goes into Nepal, then goes back to Nepal.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: That then goes back along the border in Tibet and then goes back into Nepal.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: And the devastation on the Chinese side was really centered around
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: the Zilong border port,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: this massive Chinese building where I think that was the busiest land border port
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: between Nepal and China, both in terms of tourist people and goods.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: And that thing was just, I mean, you've seen the videos, this thing has just been obliterated.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's terrifying.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: There's this massive structure.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know, previous structures there, bridges have been damaged and other floods.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this was at a confluence with two rivers.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: the geography is just so challenging there that there aren't really any good choices
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: of where you put these kinds of roads and bridges and facilities.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: But so my point was is there was this coverage that somehow this was China's fault,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: this collapse, especially from the Indian side.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: There was a lot of talk in Indian media pushing up like somehow China's to blame,
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: which again is just really cynical and terrible,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: this kind of politicizing this horrible tragedy.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: There's certainly along the river,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: there's a lot of hydro projects,
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: there's Chinese workers involved,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: Chinese money,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: but Nepal wants that because these are really poor,
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: undeveloped places that want energy.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: They want electricity.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: this idea that sort of immediately trying to cast blame is really not constructive.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: Mm-hmm.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's all very unsubstantiated, too.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen some of it on Twitter.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's very unsubstantiated.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well, again, I think some of these coordinated attacks just immediately...
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: Blame China, right?
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: Where there are a lot of things that you could be critical about, especially on the Tibet side.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: But the fact that this was a natural disaster in
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: an incredibly geologically active area was just punishing.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I've been to Tibet a couple of times, not to the specific area.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: But it's hard to just understand how...
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: How geographically challenging these places are in terms of
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: the really high mountains, the narrow gorges, the fast-running rivers, the glaciers.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's a place where I think if you want to build there,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: You can't get away from these kinds of natural disasters.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: There are baseline risks.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: That makes sense.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the situation is so bad that she dispatched Premier Lee to the disaster zone.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: The August Politburo meeting was dedicated entirely to this tragedy,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: at least the public readout.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: At least the public readout was, yeah.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: No, sending the premieres means, okay, this is bad.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: That videos have been scrubbed from social media, of course.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: State media has been instructed to align all reporting with the state.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: And anyone who questions
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: the official death toll is being given administrative penalties
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: that typically involve...
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: And China's relationship with developing countries.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, right now, I think it's now into the sort of recovery phase.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: How they rebuild this port is it's going to be something to watch
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: because it is just completely obliterated.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's also sad.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: There are a fair number of foreigners,
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: including some Americans,
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think a fair number of Indians,
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: some Australians, and other nationalities I'm sorry I didn't mention.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: It's a busy tourist port.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of the tourism involved going to and from Mount Kailash in Western Tibet
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_00: for the sacred mountain for the Kora.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: And this year, it's the year of the horse.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we took our kids around Mount Kailash in 2004.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: You get a 12x bonus if you do it in the year of the horse.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: It was during the year of the horse way back when the mountain was dropped onto earth.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm oversimplifying.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for oversimplifying for my purposes.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: There were a lot of pilgrims,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: and there were some on their way,
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: and there were some who had just completed the quorum or on their way back
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: who sadly died in this,
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: including the Washington Post story,
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: at least one, I think, one or maybe three people from Northern Virginia.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't see that.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's just the whole thing.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's just awful.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: The Chinese are going to rebuild faster on their side than Nepal will be able
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: to rebuild on their side.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: and we
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: don't really have a feel for the scale of the tragedy on the Tibetan side
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: because of the censorship.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, so it looks like the damage was primarily around the Zilong, the border port.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: On the Nepal side.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Because the port is on this conflict of two rivers.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: It actually,
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: a part of the slide actually went up,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was like two, two and a half kilometers uphill up the Chinese river.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so we just, but most of that's not a really, I don't think it's that
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: heavily
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: populated.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: But there was a video I posted on,
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: a reposted on X yesterday about,
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: A driver had done a video of the 25-kilometer drive from Geelong Town down to
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: the port using their dash cam.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's a beautiful drive, but not that close to the port.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_00: You start seeing all these trucks backed up because they're hauling goods or they're
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: in line to go through the port.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so one of the questions is how many people were waiting upstream of the port
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: who were waiting to go through customs who were then completely inundated?
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think the latest stats were 21 people confirmed dead and 500-something missing.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that's going to be the number.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think there's going to be any other way to say whether or not that's
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: an accurate number.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: But I think given the population there,
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: that seems like a reasonable, within a range of what could be considered reasonable.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: You're the scale of what happened in Nepal.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: On the Nepal side.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: But it was just really kind of sad to see some of that,
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: the way,
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: and sort of talk about it's all China's fault from the start when,
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know, this is just a tragedy and people don't need to immediately politicize it.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's fair.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: two Nepali officials did tell Reuters that China had not shared much information
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: on glacier risks and water levels after a meeting last year or earlier this year
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: to strengthen cooperation.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that that information would have had any relevance to what happened
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: in terms of this collapsing glacier mountainside.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: No, I'm just I mentioned that because it's not strictly Indians or Americans who are.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: But I don't think they were they were necessarily blaming China for this tragedy.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: No, I think they're lobbying for more communication,
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: which they were lobbying for earlier in the year.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: And they were rebuffed by the Chinese side.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_01: So, right.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, I mean.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: China has technology.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: They can probably put all sorts of sensors on mountains in Nepal if the Nepalese want that.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure they have sensors and are not sharing data.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: But again, I just think that this is just such a horrible tragedy.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: And you go back and then more videos are coming out and it's like out of some apocalypse movie.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's just unbelievable.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it really is.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: Every single video I've seen,
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: and I actually had to stop watching the videos because they were so disturbing,
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: but every video I've seen is haunting.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_00: And it's even more haunting to people who wanted to stop and film.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: Because most of the videos I saw were stationary cameras.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't see as much of the firsthand video.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: I'll have to see.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_01: Well, again, I'm trying to stay away, but I'll check out the video that you reposted yesterday.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: In any event,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: I wish nothing but The G20 Finance Ministers Summit came and went
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: in North Carolina this weekend without a joint communique issued by the leaders
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: who were gathered in Asheville and Chapel Hill.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: Go Tar Heels.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: I'm a lifelong UNC fan.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_01: Tuesday at the Financial Times, Dimitri Sevastopolov reported
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: He says,
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: Including efforts to ensure the smooth functioning of global supply chains
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: for energy,
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: food, fertilizer and critical minerals, according to U.S. and European officials.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: One U.S. official quoted says they are guilty.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: If we are worried about persistent distortions, they are the worst offenders.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: For the G20 to have something at 19 to 1 is unbelievable.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think of what happened here?
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: Bloomberg has reported the disagreement came down to one word in
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: the proposed communique as the U.S.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_01: wanted to say,
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: we agree that countries should take steps to eliminate non-market policies
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_01: and practices that exacerbate imbalances.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: First of all,
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think the,
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_00: kudos if, I mean,
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: the U.S.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: government's communication strategy around this was well targeted by leaking or
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: by talking to the Financial Times ahead of the chairman's statement and setting,
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: basically setting the...
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_00: The headline.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_00: Setting the headline and setting the story, right?
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: And...
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: Then, you know, you had the Bloomberg.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: And again,
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think I think it's legitimate that the Chinese,
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: you know, that this is what happened.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: The Chinese did object to.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_00: And there was a statement this morning we can we'll get to in a second.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think on the Bloomberg story that came out later where they said it was down
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: to just non-market language.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: That may be true.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: But then this there was a post from this social media account linked to China Media Group.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: And in that one, they actually cite three reasons.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry, let me just pull it up here.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: There's sort of three concerns.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_00: First of all, they're really upset that the U.S. publicly blamed China in the communique.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: And did this on home turf.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_00: Not in the communique, sorry,
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: in the chair statement where the chair statement,
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_00: Vasant came out and basically said that all members present except the PRC agreed to
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: the tax and the PRC ejected to paragraphs 4, 10, 11, and 13.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so then this Yuyan Tanjian cites three concerns about it.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: One is that the way that the text describes the global economy
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_00: without mentioning tariffs or high-tech export controls,
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: which basically said that the U.S.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: Wanted to smuggle in its own agenda around non-market policies and practice
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: because those are linked to the US 301 investigations and linked to
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: the claims around overcapacity, China Shock 2.0 and China Squeeze.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: And then also a paragraph
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: about sovereign debt only singled out official bilateral creditors,
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: which again is China's a big creditor.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_00: And then,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: of course,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: the non-market,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: and specifically around the non-market policies and practices,
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_00: this article from Yu and Tan Tan says,
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: a person involved in the negotiations told Tan,
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: the G20 has never discussed the definition of the term non-market policies
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: and practices.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: Moreover,
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: the so-called non-market policies and practices language actually comes from
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: the United States 2018 Section 301 Investigation of China.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so having the rest of G20 endorse that effectively,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: China, of course, is not going to go for that.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: The Financial Times article from Dimitri also talked
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: about language around critical minerals, and the Chinese didn't want that.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then they quote a senior U.S.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_00: official in the context
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_00: of how China has been throttling rare earth critical minerals exports to Japan,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: quote, their behavior towards Japan is appalling.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: Which is the strongest statement to date from the U.S. government.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's off the record.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: But they're still hiding behind anonymity.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think Japan would prefer that there's a senior,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: more senior than, say,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_00: the ambassador in Japan or the deputy spokesperson of the State Department come out
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_00: and actually say this is not OK. Mm hmm.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the UN Tantan piece further goes on to link it to the upcoming sort of,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: not the upcoming meeting directly,
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_00: but in terms of the U.S.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: relationship by saying that by playing these petty tricks at the G20 meeting,
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: the United States has damaged both the G20's credibility and the atmosphere
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_00: for China-U.S. cooperation.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: OK, well, I can't wait for she to arrive in Washington in three weeks.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see what happens.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think it highlights what the U.S.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: strategy has been under Trump,
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: which is to restructure global trade on one hand and flood third party countries
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: with Chinese goods so that they basically have no option but to.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: Take action on Chinese trade.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: That might happen in Europe.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll talk about that next week.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_01: Then also,
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: in the meantime,
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: Besant has been very explicit
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_01: at singling out China literally every opportunity he has.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_01: Basically, every day he's talking about Chinese trade imbalances.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so the U.S.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: statement after this meeting or this official who said for the G20 to have something
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: at 19 to 1 is unbelievable.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: Especially given the tensions in the US relationship with the EU and the trade war
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_00: with Canada that it bubbled up.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, not joking, right?
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that is pretty significant that in spite of all the other tensions going on,
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: And you can understand,
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: you know, China, China,
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_00: maybe they thought that they would have a better shot because of the,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the U.S. has sort of been.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: Split the allies.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: And yet and yet there's so much concern about Chinese practices
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: that it still comes back to this.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the U.S.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_01: was probably thrilled with the 19 to one vote and was engineering toward
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: that outcome with the communique they were drafting.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think if you're Besant and his team, I think you're right.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think they have to be pretty happy with where this landed.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_01: And they messaged it well in the wake of the vote.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll see how much this does or doesn't bear on Xi's visit to Washington, D.C.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_01: But elsewhere in U.S.-China news, again,
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_01: China media groups,
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: WeChat account published, Anthropic has contracted the American disease.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_01: Same byline as Yu Yuantantian.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: I hadn't seen that until the past two articles that
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: you're mentioning here.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: Do I need to get up on my WeChat?
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_01: Penalty for not reading cynicism enough.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: No, anyway, we can.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_01: Oh boy, exposed here.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: I need to do my cynicism thought work.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's okay.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we'll have some rectification meetings later.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's okay.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_01: In all honesty,
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: there's Xinhua and then there's like a whole host
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_01: of other state media adjacent accounts and outlets that all sort of blend together.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: Some matter.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: Some don't.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is one that is generally worth paying attention to.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the post, Anthropic has contracted the American disease.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: It poses the question to readers,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: how did a company convinced that it was saving humanity ultimately become synonymous
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_01: in people's eyes with overreach, surveillance, and hegemony?
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: What was going on with that piece?
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: And should we just understand China Media Group to be effectively speaking for
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: the Chinese government in advance of the US-China summit?
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: So a couple of points.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_00: One is, I think that the bottom half of the piece was really, I think, trying to lay out some...
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_00: Guidelines or ideas for how the US and China can talk about AI safety.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the- Honestly,
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: it read as like two separate articles because the top was taking pot shots
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: at Anthropic.
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I was like, is this, are they quoting like- Is this David Sachs?
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: Right, I mean, seriously.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's why I said when I wrote it,
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: my take on it was,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: the article starts by attacking Anthropic in ways that will sound familiar,
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: correct to many in Silicon Valley.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: It has been the conversation for the last nine months or so.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then I think, oh great, I'm just reading my piece and found a typo.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: Perfect.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, you know how that happens.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's just like, but no,
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think ultimately what they're trying to say is if we're going to have
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: a discussion around AI safety, And security.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_00: Here are some of the key points.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_00: And one is that they're suggesting the capabilities
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: that could genuinely cause serious harm can be jointly tested
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_00: and jointly restricted.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_00: Normal model research and development and commercial use should not be subject
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: to covert intervention.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_00: This line must be drawn jointly by all participating parties.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: Then they go on to say that only after the United States first proves
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_00: that its safety rules apply equally to its own model companies will it be possible
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: for China and the United States to enter into substantive discussions.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think there will be some US-China AI discussions around this Trump visit,
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_00: and I think even Secretary Bassett in one of his interviews after the G20 said that.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: But I think the Chinese side,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: what they're saying is,
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: we can't really talk about this until you know what you're doing.
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: Which is fair.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's not constructive.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think on Friday,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_00: the information reported that the executive order for a new AI regulator has stalled
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: because it's faced opposition from former White House AR and cryptozard David Sachs.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'll reiterate that I'm not in a rush to get regulation passed
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_01: because I think we need to be very careful about how we approach the issue.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not holding my breath for an AI agreement with the PRC,
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_01: at least an agreement that actually matters and achieves any kind
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_01: of stable equilibrium.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: Regardless of what regulations are or aren't passed,
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_01: neither side has the ability to hold the other one accountable
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: and neither side has any reason to trust their counterpart in any sort
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_01: of AI agreement.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess you have to discuss it at a summit like this.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: But where will that actually lead?
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_01: Probably nowhere would be my guess.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: But I think there will be some initial discussions that one of
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: the challenges will be working out who on each side should participate.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: There are various non-governmental actors who are trying to push ideas.
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_00: Last week, there was an Asia Society-led, on the Western side,
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: There was a track one and a half dialogue that went to China.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: It was a little strange because usually the track one and a half is like retired officials.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_00: There were a couple of retired mid-level State Department people who are now sort
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: of business, work on the sort of the business industry groups.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: The only real sort of senior official was Kevin Rudd,
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_00: who's president of the Asian Society,
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: but he was Prime Minister of Australia and Ambassador of the US.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_00: The chairman of the A Society, John Thornton.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_00: But the point was,
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_00: one of the participants was Craig Mundy,
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: who's been pushing for a while some idea of a third-party testing kind of idea
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: for models.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_00: The hope is that we'll somehow bring in China and the U.S. and have more of a regime to look at.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_00: Some of these safety issues.
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: Not sure how far.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the Chinese are probably happy to engage on that up to a point.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_00: Not at all sure, again,
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: how that really works in the U.S.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_00: and with the Trump administration when the Trump administration is just
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_00: so somewhat incoherent about how they're approaching this sort of U.S.
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_00: safety issues at this point.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_00: Even to the point where yesterday Howard Lutnick says Anthropic was all back in good graces.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_00: And then today, what's the guy at the Department of Defense?
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: Emil Michael, I think his name is.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, yep.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_00: And so again, from the Chinese perspective, it's like, yeah, we'll talk.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: This is what we want.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_00: And this is, I think, what this Yuyen Tantian piece is sort of saying.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_00: But you got to get your own act together first.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_00: And again, I don't think...
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_00: Anyone can be holding their breath.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and normal
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_01: model research and development and commercial use should not be subject
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: to covert intervention.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_01: Why would the Americans have any reason to trust that there's not going
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_01: to be any covert intervention with PRC models going forward?
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: Under Secretary of War Emile Michael,
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_00: anthropic is still a designated supply chain risk at the Department of War and for
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: the defense industrial base.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_00: Terrific.
• 37:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, again,
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_00: I think that,
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: one of the things that may change things on the Chinese side,
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think they are getting concerned about safety.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think that like the recent,
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_00: like the hugging faces incident,
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: some of the challenges in testing are very much wake-up calls,
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_00: because ultimately—
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_01: also think they're concerned about Anthropic and
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: the mythos capabilities that Anthropic has that Anthropic's not sharing.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: Even though there's a company called Obliteration.ai,
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: you can go and they've stripped out the safeguards from the GLM 5.3,
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_00: the moonshot, the Kimi model, right?
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: So that it can perform offensive cyber attacks.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you know,
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_00: can you go to,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't tried this,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: but can you go set up an account on Obliteration.ai and then basically launch
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_00: an attack on China's great firewall and see if you can poke holes in it?
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: If these Chinese models start getting used to go after political
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_01: security,
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: then this is a different conversation in terms of AI safety and security than some
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: of what you're seeing in public right now.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_01: And that's a PRC problem.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's not a US PRC problem.
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think that's going to be solved with any sort of bilateral agreement.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: But maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised because I'd love to live in it.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: And look, there have been track 1.5 dialogues.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: I have friends in the AI safety community who are in Shanghai meeting
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_01: with PRC counterparts, talking about all these issues.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_01: And it's good that those conversations are happening.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: But at the government to government level,
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's just hard to see what How the US and China would find common ground and find
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: a stable framework that each side can trust.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_01: But we'll see.
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_01: And Anthropic, I mean,
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: Anthropic has been vocally anti-China,
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_01: anti-distillation for the better part of the last two or three years here.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not surprising that they are a target.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think the Anthropic CEO has been critical of China for a long time,
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: not just two or three years.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_00: And he did work at Baidu's lab in Silicon Valley for some period of time.
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so people are wondering, did something happen there?
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to know more.
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get Dario on the show.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_01: What else should we be watching as we are three weeks out from Xi's visit to Washington, D.C.?
• 40:06
  SPEAKER_01: Can't imagine there's been that much planning taking place.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_00: One last bit on AI.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: We all saw the news this morning that NVIDIA made it official they're buying Hugging Face for...
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_00: Congrats, great outcome.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: What, $13 billion or so?
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_00: $13 billion.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_00: Stripe recently bought Open Router.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think one of the things I'd love to understand is from the perspective of
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_00: the PRC officials who look at Chinese AI models and China's global AI strategy,
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_00: what are they thinking that two of the key distribution nodes
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_00: for open source AI models Both in terms of new models,
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_00: but then also usage are now controlled by these massive Western companies.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_00: And whether they don't care at this point,
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: but at some point that they start thinking this is another potential chokehold.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's a chokehold.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_00: We're like ending each other's sentences.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_00: Podcasting together far too long at this point.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and you could also look at some of the deals that leading AI models out
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_01: of China are striking with cloud providers, American cloud providers.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_01: How much longer will that be allowed is an open question and something
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_01: that would concern me if I were on the PRC side.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_01: And cared about proliferation in the U.S. market, at least.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_01: But those cloud providers serve all over the world.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, just
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_00: put it out there.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_00: But back to the Trump visit.
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, again, we're three weeks out.
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_00: All signs are that the trip is happening in spite of the damage to the atmosphere.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_00: That I think, you know, the Chinese see.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, there was, you know, Wang Yi met with.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean,
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_00: like this,
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: while you met with the U.S.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_00: ambassador last week,
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's just a lot of, you know, the process is underway.
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_00: What the deliverables may be, I think, is still very, very much.
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_00: The Chinese are unhappy.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_00: They want more.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_00: The Chinese, of course, are concerned about things like export controls.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: The economic D-Day against Iran that threatened to go after all this sort
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: of financial lifeline for the Iranian government.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: So far, not as we expected.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_00: They haven't done anything against any meaningful Chinese actors.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_00: Some of the institutions they've gone after,
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_00: they're processing Chinese funds because the Chinese are the biggest buyers
• 42:51
  SPEAKER_00: of Iranian oil.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_00: But it hasn't risen to the point where they've actually done anything that I think
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_00: the Chinese would really object to.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and it wouldn't necessarily be a sticking point in China.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_01: No, and
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_00: so right now, again,
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: never say never,
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_00: but it would have to be something pretty significant,
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think, to derail this meeting at this point.
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well,
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_01: and as far as deliverables are concerned,
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: I recall that Trump created,
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_01: he built a helipad, a new helipad in advance of Xi's visit to Washington, D.C.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe showing Xi the brand new helipad on the White House lawn is one deliverable
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: that we can all look forward to at the summit in a couple of weeks.
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think?
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_00: If it's done, I guess, so they can walk through the ballroom under construction.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_01: The ballroom is approved, greenlit by the Supreme Court.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_00: She's big on big buildings, too.
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's overseeing this brand new military city on the southwestern suburbs of Beijing.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_00: This is going to dwarf the Pentagon.
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe Trump can ask for some tips on how to really build strong...
• 44:03
  SPEAKER_00: Trading infrastructure tips.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_01: If there's one thing our current president loves, it's new shiny infrastructure.
• 44:11
  SPEAKER_01: So perhaps they'll block off an hour or two to talk about that.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 44:16
  SPEAKER_01: Well, maybe we'll get more next week.
• 44:18
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we won't, and it'll just be a surprise what the two leaders discussed.
• 44:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the only thing overnight,
• 44:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was MSNBC,
• 44:26
  SPEAKER_00: whatever, MSNOW,
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_00: they had an article overnight quoting four sources that there will be
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_00: a state dinner.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_00: That was up for whether or not it would be actually called an officially a state dinner.
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_00: Trump hasn't done many of those.
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's a big deal.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_01: Great.
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's right.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: And we've got the 30 seats.
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see who has the 30 seats.
• 44:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's more, but... Time will tell.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_00: I guarantee you, I mean, maybe there's a polymarket for it.
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_00: No, this is not a paid placement for who will be there.
• 45:01
  SPEAKER_00: It would be a really entertaining polymarket.
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_00: I would expect Jensen Huang will be there.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Jensen's off the board as well.
• 45:08
  SPEAKER_00: It will be interesting if the new Apple CEO is there.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_00: Tim Cook would absolutely have been there.
• 45:12
  SPEAKER_00: Will Ternus go?
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Tim Cook's the chairman.
• 45:14
  SPEAKER_00: So Tim Cook could still appear
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_01: on Apple's behalf.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_01: That's a good point.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe that's going to be his role in the Ternus era is just be the China whisperer
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_01: for Apple and I guess the American government whisperer as well.
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_00: But in terms of sort of the U.S.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_00: remains unhappy with the flow of critical minerals,
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: magnets, etc., There's still no Boeing deal signed.
• 45:38
  SPEAKER_00: The Chinese are pushing for a big basket of several years of equipment being delivered.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_00: Not engines, but things they need, from my understanding.
• 45:49
  SPEAKER_00: We are in a phase of constructive strategic stability.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's based on a very tenuous foundation.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the Chinese,
• 46:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think on the renewal of the Busan deal,
• 46:11
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 46:11
  SPEAKER_00: the Chinese,
• 46:12
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_00: are pushing for renewing it,
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_00: sort of figuring out a way to sort of say it's done through,
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_00: you know, renewed through the rest of the Trump's term.
• 46:18
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think the Trump side, the Trump team is going for that.
• 46:21
  SPEAKER_00: To your point about Besson and then also Jameson Greer, USTR.
• 46:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that there's still a lot under discussion.
• 46:27
  SPEAKER_00: It will look like it was a good constructive meeting further in support
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_00: of constructive strategic stability.
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_00: But whether or not the US is able to have the Chinese decide to free any of
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_00: the US citizens who are designated as wrongfully detained,
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_00: Whether or not they finally let Jimmy Lai out, again,
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_00: that would be a huge deliverable and win for President Trump if they got that.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_00: But the U.S. would have to give us something for that.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll believe it when we see it.
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_01: While shifting gears, a couple stories at the end here.
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: X Global Affairs, a Twitter account that I was not aware of until last week.
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_01: They tweeted last week,
• 47:09
  SPEAKER_01: the X safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese Thank you.
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_01: These posts contain claims
• 47:33
  SPEAKER_01: that AI data centers are driving up household electricity prices and straining
• 47:38
  SPEAKER_01: the grid.
• 47:39
  SPEAKER_01: Others included AI-generated cartoons
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_01: that depicted data center operators enriching themselves at the public's expense.
• 47:47
  SPEAKER_01: And they included examples.
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_01: They did not include engagement numbers on any of the examples.
• 47:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you pointed out in the chat, which is the right thing.
• 47:54
  SPEAKER_00: It was like, how many hundreds of millions of exit accounts are there?
• 47:58
  SPEAKER_00: Who cares if nobody reads this stuff?
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's sort of a waste of time to include the examples.
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, but part of the thing is that Ben over at Techie wrote about this,
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think a couple months ago, that sort of the data center backlash.
• 48:10
  SPEAKER_00: Jasmine Sun has done some really good reporting on it.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the backlash is real and has very specific local grassroots issues.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: And for Silicon Valley and the big companies that are,
• 48:19
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 48:19
  SPEAKER_00: that want to build data centers,
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_00: if they honestly believe this is all just some sort
• 48:23
  SPEAKER_00: of Chinese backed influence campaign, they're never going to solve this problem.
• 48:28
  SPEAKER_00: There may be stuff happening on the margin that's coming through these kind
• 48:31
  SPEAKER_00: of attempts to shape the discourse,
• 48:35
  SPEAKER_00: but it is on the margin compared to the legitimate issues that
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_00: the local communities have and the way that the tech companies have gone
• 48:48
  SPEAKER_00: about trying to build these data centers.
• 48:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 48:51
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's been a theme all year long in the tech community.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I wrote about the data center issue last week for Shub Tech.
• 48:59
  SPEAKER_01: Right, you wrote about it too, right.
• 49:00
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know,
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_01: one of the pieces in my piece was my own sense
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_01: that we just have not really seen any evidence that Chinese propaganda is moving
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_01: the needle on any of these issues.
• 49:11
  SPEAKER_01: Like even the ex-post,
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_01: which came out after I'd finished writing 200,000 accounts on this bot farm.
• 49:20
  SPEAKER_01: Related to AI data centers.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_01: But in the tech world,
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_01: there have been people almost every day saying this is driven by China
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_01: or this is aligned with China,
• 49:29
  SPEAKER_01: which I think it is probably aligned with what serves China's long term interest.
• 49:34
  SPEAKER_01: But it's not driving the debate.
• 49:37
  SPEAKER_00: And the people,
• 49:37
  SPEAKER_00: these companies,
• 49:38
  SPEAKER_00: if they're going to try and address the issues in local communities
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_00: and state governments based on the idea
• 49:45
  SPEAKER_00: that somehow this is all just Chinese influence operations, they're going to fail.
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 49:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and I also I think China,
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_01: generally speaking,
• 49:53
  SPEAKER_01: they are successful at information warfare by co-opting institutions,
• 49:59
  SPEAKER_01: going back to the discussion at the beginning of the podcast,
• 50:02
  SPEAKER_01: not necessarily flooding the Internet with bots and paid influencers.
• 50:06
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure they do plenty of that as well.
• 50:09
  SPEAKER_00: That works, too.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, certainly in terms of changing,
• 50:11
  SPEAKER_00: you know, I think shifting global opinions and certain issues that can work, too.
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_00: It does.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_00: In this case,
• 50:21
  SPEAKER_00: there's no evidence that it's had any sort of meaningful impact on public opinion in
• 50:26
  SPEAKER_00: the affected towns, counties, states.
• 50:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_01: And OpenAI released a report a couple months back where they were talking
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_01: about Chinese bots using AI to generate propaganda and buried in that report,
• 50:40
  SPEAKER_01: they concluded that it didn't actually find very much...
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm of the view that we need more data centers.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think that, again,
• 51:15
  SPEAKER_00: the companies that want to build more data centers,
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's maybe some of the folks around them or some of the people
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_00: who are trying to get their business and consult with them.
• 51:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's easier to blame China for this,
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_00: but they got to address the real issues to be able to start build more
• 51:33
  SPEAKER_00: of these data centers.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_00: And focusing on these sort of bot operations
• 51:37
  SPEAKER_00: and Chinese influence around data centers, again,
• 51:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'll just say it again,
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_00: They're not going to make the progress they want if that's their focus.
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_01: I agree.
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_00: In some ways, it's a distraction.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 51:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I also think that more data centers are going to continue to be built.
• 51:52
  SPEAKER_01: And this is sort of like a big story over the last couple months,
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm less concerned about the long-term future here.
• 51:59
  SPEAKER_01: Just because the incentives make sense for so many states and counties all over
• 52:04
  SPEAKER_01: the country, I think the incentives will ultimately win out.
• 52:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think people are that passionate one way or another.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_01: And this is sort of a meme driven situation would be my guess.
• 52:16
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'll be wrong.
• 52:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 52:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think
• 52:18
  SPEAKER_01: they're at least in the
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_00: Democratic Party.
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's been bizarre.
• 52:23
  SPEAKER_00: It has become a
• 52:24
  SPEAKER_01: real thing.
• 52:26
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 52:41
  SPEAKER_01: No kidding.
• 52:42
  SPEAKER_01: My entire life we've been talking about bringing manufacturing back,
• 52:46
  SPEAKER_01: restoring blue-collar jobs.
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the politics are really messy in their own way in the U.S.
• 52:54
  SPEAKER_00: that really are anything I think that China's doing is just marginal,
• 52:58
  SPEAKER_00: tangential, I think.
• 52:59
  SPEAKER_01: Again, independent of China, we are so messy on our own.
• 53:03
  SPEAKER_01: And there's so much misinformation on our own.
• 53:06
  SPEAKER_01: But speaking of China, TikTok backs out of a house space.
• 53:13
  SPEAKER_01: That was a Bloomberg headline this week.
• 53:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then John Mulanar, chair of the China Select Committee in the House.
• 53:21
  SPEAKER_01: TikTok has backed out of its commitment to appear at
• 53:23
  SPEAKER_01: the committee's September roundtable to answer.
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_01: And the company agreed to have its chief security officer appear at a bipartisan campaign.
• 53:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now TikTok is refusing to appear,
• 53:46
  SPEAKER_01: citing its own desire to avoid broader scrutiny of its child safety practices.
• 53:52
  SPEAKER_01: We will continue to work in good faith to protect the American people
• 53:56
  SPEAKER_01: and ensure TikTok executives publicly address
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_01: the committee's questions regarding its operations and safeguards,
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_01: consistent with the requirements of the Protecting Americans
• 54:06
  SPEAKER_01: from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,
• 54:10
  SPEAKER_01: I had not read the full name of the TikTok legislation in probably 18 months or so.
• 54:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's, again,
• 54:20
  SPEAKER_01: healthier for me to pretend that bill doesn't even exist
• 54:23
  SPEAKER_01: and we're not all ignoring it.
• 54:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 54:33
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you raised the possibility.
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_01: Why wouldn't Moulinard just subpoena TikTok?
• 54:38
  SPEAKER_00: Because the committee, they have subpoena power.
• 54:43
  SPEAKER_00: They really don't like to use it.
• 54:44
  SPEAKER_00: And so, again, I don't know why they wouldn't use it in this case.
• 54:50
  SPEAKER_00: But again, we know that TikTok, ByteDance, TikTok, they have powerful backers.
• 54:55
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know...
• 54:59
  SPEAKER_00: They've been able to push back on
• 55:03
  SPEAKER_00: every branch of government successfully.
• 55:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_00: So why they can just thumb their nose at this committee and what are they going to do about it?
• 55:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's too bad because I have a lot of questions about what sort of access
• 55:17
  SPEAKER_01: the PRC retains to the algorithm and what that relationship looks like.
• 55:22
  SPEAKER_01: All of this was why the bill was passed in the first place.
• 55:26
  SPEAKER_00: And there's nothing but opacity, which is which again is why, you know.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: Subpoena them and then let them just decline the answer is more useful
• 55:35
  SPEAKER_00: than just we're not coming and the chairman puts out a I'm angry statement and
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_00: then everyone moves on.
• 55:43
  SPEAKER_01: And we're not coming because of the meta settlement
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_01: in their child safety litigation, which is completely unrelated to what John
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_00: And just sort of, again,
• 55:57
  SPEAKER_00: there are ways their lawyers can get them to,
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_00: how they answer those questions to sort of avoid talking about it and get themselves
• 56:03
  SPEAKER_00: into any trouble over that.
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's just a convenient excuse, obviously.
• 56:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_01: Convenient and fairly absurd excuse from the TikTok legal team.
• 56:13
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 56:13
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe Mulanar, Representative Mulanar on the committee will still have majority control.
• 56:18
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they'll decide to subpoena them.
• 56:20
  SPEAKER_00: They can fight it.
• 56:20
  SPEAKER_00: They still probably won't make this hearing, but...
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_00: They haven't done that.
• 56:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 56:24
  SPEAKER_00: they could have subpoenaed all sorts of,
• 56:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know, when they talk about export controls, they could have subpoenaed NVIDIA.
• 56:29
  SPEAKER_00: They could have subpoenaed other tech companies.
• 56:31
  SPEAKER_00: They've never wanted to do it.
• 56:32
  SPEAKER_00: They never subpoenaed NVIDIA.
• 56:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's true.
• 56:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then,
• 56:35
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 56:36
  SPEAKER_00: we'll see, again,
• 56:37
  SPEAKER_00: midterms,
• 56:39
  SPEAKER_00: whether or not this committee even exists if the Democrats take back the House.
• 56:42
  SPEAKER_00: And if it does, is Ro Khanna then chair?
• 56:43
  SPEAKER_00: He's now the ranking minority member.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_00: Might be better if the committee just disbands, if that's the case.
• 56:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be honest.
• 56:49
  SPEAKER_01: Ro Khanna,
• 56:50
  SPEAKER_01: a politician I had a lot of respect for a couple of years ago and has had a run
• 56:55
  SPEAKER_01: of just egregiously bad takes over the last couple of years
• 56:59
  SPEAKER_01: and incoherent policy positions, including on the data center issue.
• 57:04
  SPEAKER_01: And if he is chair of the China Select Committee,
• 57:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure what that portends,
• 57:11
  SPEAKER_01: but- They've done a lot of great work over the last couple of years,
• 57:15
  SPEAKER_01: and it would be very disappointing to see that work.
• 57:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you know,
• 57:19
  SPEAKER_00: if this might be the last couple of months of Chairman,
• 57:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 57:23
  SPEAKER_00: Representative Moulinard's time as chairman,
• 57:24
  SPEAKER_00: why not go out with a bang and actually subpoena TikTok and have a fight?
• 57:28
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do it.
• 57:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 57:29
  SPEAKER_01: And look, Moulinard, busiest man on Capitol Hill.
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and he's on it.
• 57:38
  SPEAKER_00: In his way,
• 57:39
  SPEAKER_00: he's pushed back on some of the stuff the Trump administration has done on China,
• 57:43
  SPEAKER_00: and he's got his political constraints.
• 57:45
  SPEAKER_00: But in this case, I mean, TikTok is just basically flipping the bird at the committee.
• 57:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 57:51
  SPEAKER_01: So wanted to mention it all part of the rich pageant here.
• 57:55
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not holding my breath for TikTok appearing before the China Select Committee,
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_01: but maybe we'll be surprised.
• 58:00
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll get a subpoena at some point over the next month or two.
• 58:03
  SPEAKER_01: For now, Bill.
• 58:05
  SPEAKER_01: I would say go out and enjoy the week.
• 58:07
  SPEAKER_01: But again, it's been a really disgusting week.
• 58:11
  SPEAKER_01: The swamp is awful swampy here in Washington, D.C.
• 58:15
  SPEAKER_01: But it is Labor Day weekend and hopefully we'll get some better weather by the weekend.
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_01: Who can say?
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's you and Tashi over there, right?
• 58:22
  SPEAKER_01: Just me and Tashi.
• 58:25
  SPEAKER_00: We had the kids for the month.
• 58:27
  SPEAKER_00: It was great.
• 58:27
  SPEAKER_00: Had some friends here.
• 58:29
  SPEAKER_00: Tashi's much happier when there are 11 people in the house than it's just me.
• 58:32
  SPEAKER_00: Put it that way.
• 58:33
  SPEAKER_01: Just you.
• 58:33
  SPEAKER_01: At least you both have air conditioning, though, over the next couple of days.
• 58:37
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, God, you're going to jinx it.
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not.
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm not.
• 58:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not.
• 58:39
  SPEAKER_01: Who knows?
• 58:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's probably going
• 58:40
  SPEAKER_01: to be disgusting all weekend.
• 58:42
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully your air conditioning doesn't work so far.
• 58:46
  SPEAKER_00: Fingers crossed.
• 58:47
  SPEAKER_01: I won't jinx the air conditioning.
• 58:49
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 58:50
  SPEAKER_01: Enjoy yourself.
• 58:51
  SPEAKER_01: We are coming back next week.
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_01: We'll come a day early.
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_01: We're a day late this week.
• 58:55
  SPEAKER_01: We'll go a day early next week.
• 58:58
  SPEAKER_01: Look for a new Sharp China on Wednesday.
• 59:00
  SPEAKER_01: For now, Bill, enjoy your weekend and I will talk to you on the other side.
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, Andrew.
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, everybody.