Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 99 - 8/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 99 - 8/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello and welcome to episode 99 of the All Systems Go sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. The work week has come to an
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end. The weekend is upon us and we
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got a lot to get to on the final part of the week here guys
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because I have a 5 pack of sweats for you today, including
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a four pack of Major League Baseball plays, including a
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couple who are pretty short here, short numbers with
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favorites. I got a dog with a good sharp
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reverse line move. I'm excited to tell you about a
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game that kind of didn't catch my eye until later in the
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afternoon when I saw the finally the starting pitcher being
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named, so I added that one to the list.
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Also have a WNBA bet for you, which we're going to have to
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bite our teeth on this under. It's not going to be fun, but
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hopefully it'll give us a winner here with a great rhythm edge on
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the AI model from rhythm predicting a lower scoring game
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than the current total, which also coincides with the line
1:19
dropping. And then you guys know what
1:21
we're excited about to talk about on Fridays biting.
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That's right UFC, we have a big, big slate here.
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Do pluses versus out of Sanya. UFC3O5I believe I want to say
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this is on TNT or ESPNI don't know if it's pay-per-view.
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Hopefully be able to sweat this bout, not have to pay for it,
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not have to get all the boys together and chip in 10 bucks
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each. Although to be honest with you,
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those are my most fun days sweating the sweating the bites
1:48
together with your buddies. But anyway, I found a system
1:50
match here with a really sharp reverse line move this fighter
1:53
or biter as you like to call him, only getting 24% of bets,
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yet the line is moving in his direction.
1:59
So stay tuned for that. Let's see if we can bring our
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win streak in the UFC up to 10 straight.
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Got nine in a row. Let's make it 10 in a row Now,
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looking back to our last night, guys, boy, did we absolutely
2:10
nail that information based preseason bet on the Patriots.
2:14
We're talking about how that line move from New England
2:16
getting 2 1/2 all the way to laying 3.
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But we also mentioned the fact that, hey, you want to target
2:21
New England on the first half money line.
2:23
We've seen these first half money lines cash around 70%, yet
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overall dogs are cashing the preseason on the full game odds
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like 66% against the spread. So we targeted the fact that,
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hey, Patriots had struggled in those joint practices.
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They're going to play their starters.
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You know, Drake May gave me a little bit of hope as a Patriots
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fan given this. The Patriots a lead and catching
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our first half bet, they had a 2:50 lead going in locker room.
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We cashed our -160 So again, I think this is the way you got to
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handle it guys if you're looking for a sharp line move, but you
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know the reason for the move is guys are going to play on one
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side and sit on the other. Hey, target those teams on the
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first half, not the full game odds.
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I know tomorrow we have a huge slate of 13 NFL pre season game.
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So keep that in mind when you're looking at the board.
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So we got a big one with the Patriots.
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Unfortunately couldn't get our WNBA over links and mistakes.
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Just could not score enough points there.
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Made it a little bit interesting in the end, but came up short.
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Didn't score enough to cash our over.
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So in general, one and 1 -, 0.35 units.
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So he gave 1/3 of a unit back. That's OK. three-game three day
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winning streak came to an end. But that means we can start a
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new one here today as we steam into the weekend.
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So that being said, I want to start off today's pot episode 99
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on a big Friday with some Major League Baseball because I missed
3:41
MLB yesterday and there are a couple games I should have
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played and leaned on and didn't play them.
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I leaned on Baltimore, I leaned on of course, the Giants.
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Set your clock to this. You bet a team three times in a
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row, they lose all three, you lay off them and of course they
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win that game. So if anyone did play the Giants
3:57
yesterday, good for you. So no official bets for me.
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I missed baseball, but hopefully we'll get our fix here tonight.
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4 pack. Let's try to get three out of
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four for these baseball plays. First one on the board, let's
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get a dog to bark. Seattle Mariners visiting the
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Pittsburgh Pirates. There's an early game, 6:40 PM
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Eastern Time. First pitch and a little
4:16
background as we look at the match up here.
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We have the Mariners 63 and 59. They just got swept by the
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Tigers. That's pathetic.
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Can't be doing that when you're fighting for a playoff spot.
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Lost the series finale yesterday 2 to one as a -, 135 home
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favorite Pirates, by the way, 56 and 64.
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I believe they've lost ten straight, maybe even more than
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that, but they just got swept by the Padres.
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They lost that finale on Wednesday, 8:00 to 2:00 as a +
4:41
120 row dog. So pitching match up here for
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tonight very important because I think this pitching match up is
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a is having a huge influence on the public for this game.
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So the Mariners are going to go with the ready Logan Gilbert.
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He's seven and eight with a 2.91 ERA.
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Pirates are going to go with the phenom, the rookie ready, Paul
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Skeens, who's six and two with a 2.25 ERA.
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Now, what do we see across the market here?
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Well, we saw the Pittsburgh Pirates open around a -, 135
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home favorite. And the public is saying, hey,
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Skeens, great pitcher, you know, next big thing here.
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I almost remember when Max Scherzer or not Scherzer, but
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Strasburg came in some major leagues.
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Everyone fell in love with him. We were seeing the same thing
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with skins. Guys been incredible.
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And the public just says skins at home -135 not a bad price.
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Lay it. So you're seeing right now a big
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dose of public betting on the Pirates. 73% of money line bets
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are going buckos. However, despite 3 out of four
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bets on the Bucks, we've seen a Pittsburgh fall.
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They went from -135 now down to -120 and I'm seeing some, some
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shops maybe even inch down to like -115 So ask yourself this,
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if the public's on Pittsburgh, they open -135 they're getting
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73% of bets. Why is the line dropping?
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Why are the odds makers pushing this number down and telling the
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public, hey, you like skeens -135?
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Well, here you go. Take a -, 120 -, 115 Public in
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these spots will double down saying, hey, I like them 135.
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I love a -, 120, but as data-driven betters, we know
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this is an indicator of reverse line movement RLM.
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That's when the betting line goes away from the popular side
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toward the unpopular side. So this tells me smart money's
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on Seattle. Seattle's only getting 27% of
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bets, yet they went from plus 115 down to plus one O 5.
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So that good RLM in their favor. Now they're one of the top
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contrarian plays of the day. This one most heavily bet games
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of the day, of course, with skins on the bump and the fact
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that you're on the side only getting 27% good angle there to
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bet against the public just from a straight fade, the public
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contrarian standpoint. But digging into these pictures
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a little bit more, you would say, hey, Skeens got great
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numbers, but I'm wondering if he's tailing off a bit.
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Obviously, he went from college to the pros all in one year.
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That's a lot. He's hitting his innings limit,
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which also is going to be interesting when it comes to the
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National League Rookie of the Year because Skeens I think was
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as high as like -5000 or -3000 Now I think he's like -225
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Jackson Merrill, who's had some huge hits for us when we bet the
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Padres, and he's like plus 135. That's becoming a very close bet
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when it looked like Skeens was going to run away with it.
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But Skeens has a 4.76 ERA. In two August starts, he's
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giving up six runs and 11.1 innings pitched.
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This is a guy that usually is 6 innings, no runs, 10 KS every
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time. So I'm wondering if he's getting
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a little bit fatigued with, again, throwing a ton of pitches
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over the last, you know, calendar year.
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Also, Pirates are just one in four.
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In his last five starts, he's been worse at home than on the
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road. On the road, he's been insane.
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1.66 ERA at home, 2.77 ERA. Look at Logan Gilbert, though.
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I know we're focusing on skeins, but Gilbert has been a good
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pitcher here. Give him his due.
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Gilbert has a 0.69 ERA in two August starts.
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He's only given up one run in 12 innings.
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So over the last, you know, few weeks here, Gilbert's been
7:58
better than Skeins and this line's going to Seattle.
8:00
I think you're going to get a Seattle team that's frisky
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tonight because they just got swept.
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I think they've lost four or five in a row.
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And if you look at the last 10, Mariners haven't been great.
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They're four and six with their team ERA is 4.37.
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Pirates are O and 10, their last ten team ERA of 5.85.
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So I want to, I want to bet against Pittsburgh.
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I want to follow the sharp line move.
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Seattle just in general, plus 24 and run differential.
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Pittsburgh is -31 so if you tell me everyone's on Pittsburgh and
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skeens, yet this line is dropping toward the Mariners.
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I got to take the M's here, guys.
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Good sharp RLM. Let's go Gilbert.
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Hopefully the bats of Seattle can wake up.
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I'm on Seattle. I got them at plus one O 5.
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Keep on cruising the team we love to bet on because I feel
8:41
like they normally win for US. Cleveland Guardians 8:10 PM
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Eastern Time. Guardians traveling and facing
8:47
the Milwaukee Brew Crew. Guardians on the year 72 and 49
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just swept the Cubs at home, won the Wednesday series finale 6 to
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one as a -, 135 home favorite. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew, 69 and
9:00
52 just split A4 game series against the Dodgers.
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Lost the first two, won the next two.
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They won yesterday six to four as a + 120 home dog.
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So for tonight's interleague series opener, the Guardians are
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going to start ready Gavin Williams.
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He's two and four with a 4.3 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Brew Crew are going to go with fellow ready
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Aaron Savalli. He's three and eight with a 5
9:22
point O2 ERA. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this game opened around a
9:27
pick em. You had both clubs around -1 O 5
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odds. And again, anytime you open
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around a pick em, tell me which way the line moves.
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Because even though the odds makers may say this is a coin
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flip game wise guys, pro betters who set their own numbers, they
9:40
probably have one team favored, at which point they're going to
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hammer that opening number because it provides an edge or
9:46
an advantage over the book. And it looks like they got
9:48
Cleveland because Cleveland open as a pick em around -1 O 5 both
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sides. Now Cleveland is up to -115 So
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about a 10 cent steam move in favor of the guardians.
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Guardians also have a great bet split.
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They're getting 56% of bets, but 67% of dollars.
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A great low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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Basically telling us slight public support, but a lot of
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respected sharp action with an 11% low bets, higher dollars bet
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split as well as that steam move in their favor.
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And then also Cleveland's matching a lot of systems.
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For me today, non division Rd. favorites off a win, they're 145
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and one O 259% with a 4% ROI This year.
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Sweet spot short Rd. favorites -130 or less are 183 and one
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4855% with a 3% ROI. Cleveland, as we know, great as
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a chalk team. They're the best favorite team
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in baseball. When they're favored, they've
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gone 51 and 2270% with a 23% ROI.
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Also, you have the classic interleague, favorite value,
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lack of familiarity, benefiting the better team.
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And then also the rest first tired advantage because the
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Guardians were off yesterday and the Brewers were at home and
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played the Dodgers. So that's an extra day of rest
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for Cleveland for their position players getting a day off their
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feet, their bullpen guy like Class A getting an extra day of
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rest is huge. If this is a tight game late, we
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want him in there to close it out.
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You look at Williams, he's been really interesting the starter
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for Cleveland because at home he's been bad.
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He has an 8.66 ERA at home, but on the road, 0.84 ERA.
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So unbelievable. That's a big biggest discrepancy
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as you'll ever see. But he's been great on the road.
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Cavalli, meanwhile, 6.1 O ERA in two August starts, giving up
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seven runs and 10.1 innings pitched.
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But to me, guys, if the lines moving toward Cleveland and
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there's a short chalk price on a good team here, almost in a
11:40
value spot and we'll get to the Dodgers here in a second.
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But that is a play that I'll make every single time.
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So I'm going to follow this sharp money.
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I'm going to go with Cleveland here.
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Guys, shop around. I got the Guardians at -115
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Here's a bet that I added little late, late morning, early
11:55
afternoon because we're waiting on the pitcher.
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And I don't know if it's been confirmed exactly, but I think
12:01
we know who it's going to be. And even if we don't know who
12:04
it's going to be, this line keeps moving toward the Dodgers.
12:06
So let's go Dodgers here guys let's break this one down
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Dodgers 8:15 PM Eastern Time we'll be visiting the Saint
12:14
Louis Cardinals now going into this one, the Dodgers are
12:17
sitting at 71 and 51 again split that four-game series against
12:22
Milwaukee won the 1st 2 lost the next two meanwhile, the
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Cardinals 60 and 61 just got swept at the Reds.
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That's absolutely pathetic and again let me just warn you
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Cardinals are my bugaboo I bet against them they win I bet on
12:35
them they they never win. I don't know if that if you guys
12:37
feel the same, there's always that one team in one sport where
12:40
you can never get them right. But I'm going to bet against
12:43
them tonight and I'll tell you why.
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Well, let's start with the pitching matchup.
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We didn't really know who was going to be on the bump for the
12:48
Dodgers until later in the day. That's why this game really
12:51
wasn't on my radar. A lot of lines weren't even out
12:53
at that point, but I saw the Dodgers pop as a - 135 road
12:58
favorite and immediately once that line popped, we saw them
13:02
shoot up all the way to -145 SA 10 cent steam move in favor of
13:06
the Dodgers. And then I looked and I said,
13:08
OK, who's on the bump? Well, it looks like they're
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going to go with Justin Roblevski, a lefty.
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He's Owen one with a four point O 5 ERA.
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And we know it's going to be Saint Louis going with Miles
13:19
Michaelis, the veteran righty 8 and 95.3 O ERA.
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But as soon as Roblevski was, you know, expected and I I don't
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totally know if it's confirmed yet, but I was doing some
13:29
Twitter research and it sounds like it's going to be Roblevski.
13:32
That's when we saw that jump in favor of the dodgers.
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And it's always notable to me when a guy is expected or is
13:38
confirmed, you know, odds makers were setting the line based on,
13:44
you know, maybe the average pitcher.
13:46
Now who that we know who it is, where the wise guys immediately
13:49
go. Well, based on what I was
13:50
looking at my odds page, as soon as Roblesky was announced, boom,
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That's when the line hit the Dodgers.
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That tells me that wise guys like this matchup with Roblesky
13:59
against the bats of Saint Louis. Now dig a little deeper.
14:03
We have some good system matches on the Dodgers.
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Number one will be Rd. favorites with a steam move of $0.10 or
14:08
more. Been a great system all season
14:11
long. That's 65 and 3764% with a 7%
14:15
ROI and Dodgers value play. Remember we played this the
14:19
other day against Milwaukee. Was it game one or game two?
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I forget which one, but the Dodgers are typically, you know
14:24
-200 -, 300 Huge price you got to pay to bet them when they're
14:29
-150 or less as a favorite. That's a good value play in that
14:33
spot. They're 22 and 1461% with a nine
14:36
percent ROI. Also, Saint Louis will be facing
14:39
Rowbleski, who's a lefty and they've struggled against
14:42
lefties. They're only hitting 232 against
14:44
southpaws at ranks 25th in baseball.
14:47
Non division favorite system match with the Dodgers.
14:49
So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote.
14:52
That better team. I'm going to bank on the Dodgers
14:54
offense. What a difference Mookie Betts
14:56
coming back makes adding him to the top of the lineup when you
14:59
can put out Ohtani Betts, Freeman to Oscar Hernandez, I
15:03
mean, boom, that's about as good as it gets.
15:05
One through 4. So really lengthen that lined up
15:08
with Mookie coming back. As Red Sox fan, I'll never
15:10
understand why the Red Sox did not keep Mookie Betts.
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That's a whole other conversation.
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Anyway, offensively, that's where I was going advantage here
15:19
to the Dodgers. They're hitting 253 on the year,
15:22
162 homers, 602 runs scored versus Saint Louis, who's
15:27
hitting 246 with only 123 homers, 496 runs scored.
15:32
So Dodgers offense has literally scored over 100 more runs
15:36
compared to Saint Louis. And then digging into those
15:38
pictures a little bit, I was doing some research on this kid
15:40
Roblewski. He's only made four starts this
15:43
year. His first two starts were not
15:45
good. He gave up eight runs and two
15:46
innings. His last two starts he's only
15:48
given up two runs into an in in 10 innings pitched.
15:52
So hopefully this kid is, you know, getting some experience
15:54
here. And then I want to bet against
15:56
Michaelis. He has a 10.13 ERA in two August
16:00
starts, he's giving up nine runs and eight innings pitched and on
16:03
the road he's somewhat respectable. 4.54 ERA at home,
16:07
6.3 ERA. So I don't know if this is a
16:10
bet, you know, technically against Michaelis or on
16:13
Wroblesse key. But if you're giving me Dodgers
16:15
with a line move sub -150 I got to take it guys.
16:19
So give me the Dodgers shop round.
16:21
I got LA at -135. Now you're looking at La around
16:24
-145. Last bet in Major League
16:28
Baseball. Put on a pot of coffee.
16:29
Late night sweat. Atlanta Braves visiting the Los
16:33
Angeles Angels, 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
16:36
Braves coming in 64 and 57. Just took three of four against
16:40
the G Men. Did not get the sweep.
16:42
They lost yesterday. 6 Nothing as a + 105 road dog.
16:46
Meanwhile, the Halos, 52 and 69, just got swept by the Blue Jays.
16:50
They lost that finale on Wednesday, 9:00 to 2:00 as a
16:53
short -115 home favorite. So interleague series opener
16:57
tonight. Braves are going to go with
16:59
ready Spencer Schwellenbach, who's four and five with a 3.95
17:03
ER 8. Meanwhile, the Angels are going
17:05
to go with fellow ready Jose Soriano, who's six and seven
17:08
with a 3.36 ER 8. So what have you seen across the
17:12
market here? Well, this game open Braves
17:14
around -145 and Braves immediately got steamed up to
17:18
-155 and that's when I played them at -155 Now you're seeing
17:22
them as high as -160 even -165 The sign continues to rise in
17:27
favor of Atlanta. This is what I like to call the
17:30
consistent steam with no buyback.
17:32
So ever since this line open, it's been all Braves with never
17:36
any like, you know, buyback. Seen the line drop back toward
17:39
LA. You can look at that one of two
17:41
ways. I always mention this, like, on
17:42
the one hand, you're like, hey, I'm laying Braves, You know -165
17:46
now I could have gotten a -, 145.
17:49
But also, you say to yourself, even though I may not be getting
17:51
the best price, there's an indication there that there's no
17:55
buyback in Sharp still like Atlanta, even though that line
17:57
has gotten a little more expensive.
17:59
So I like the fact that the sign continues to move toward the
18:01
Braves. Now the Braves are getting
18:03
around 80% of bets and dollars. So both pro and Joe support in
18:06
addition to that 15 cent steam move in their favor.
18:10
Also, I'm going to bank on the Braves offense.
18:12
I saw Jorge Solaire maybe left with a hamstring yesterday,
18:17
which not great. I want him in the lineup.
18:19
He might be out today. But they did get Michael Harris
18:21
back, their young stud center fielder, so that's a good thing.
18:25
But they're on the year, hitting 240 with 159 homers, 520 run,
18:30
521 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Halos are only
18:35
hitting 235 with 122 homers, 486 runs scored.
18:40
Now the Braves would have that classic favorite, low total
18:43
correlative betting. Again, you're on a -, 160
18:46
favorite with a total of 8. Some shops even fell 8 1/2, down
18:49
to 8. So I like the fact that this
18:51
total is dropping in the lines moving toward the favorite.
18:54
Good correlative betting value there as the fewer amount of
18:56
expected runs scored more likely to come from that better team
18:59
was favored to win. And Schwellenbach, he's been
19:02
pretty good his last six starts, 2.53 ERA.
19:06
Braves are four and two in those games.
19:07
Soriano has been really good on the road, 2.74, ERA at home,
19:12
4.43. So we've been worse at home than
19:15
on the road. Also, LA pretty much out of it.
19:18
Braves, you know, fighting for a wild card spot.
19:21
So I like the motivational edge, which is something we have to
19:23
pay attention to down the stretch in MLB.
19:26
But if you give me Braves with a good sharp line move, some good
19:28
system matches, not a crazy expensive price, I'm going to go
19:33
Braves in the spot, guys. So shop round.
19:35
I got the Braves at -155. You might be looking closer to
19:39
-165 at this point. So if you're riding with me,
19:43
let's try to win three out of four Seattle Mariners, Cleveland
19:46
Guardians, LA Dodgers, and the Atlanta Braves.
19:49
Now over to some WNBA because yesterday, unfortunately, you
19:53
couldn't get our WNBA winner. But I did see a game today that
19:56
caught my eye and it's going to be a, it's going to be a tough
19:59
one. I'm telling you guys right now,
20:00
this is going to be, you're probably going to take five
20:02
years off your life because I'm going to play an under on two
20:06
teams that score a lot. So this one, it might give you
20:09
some heartburn, but the data is there.
20:11
So let's try to stick to the data.
20:13
I'm talking about a matchup tonight at 7:30 PM between the
20:16
Phoenix Mercury and the Indiana Fever.
20:19
Now first thing you think about is Fever.
20:21
Caitlin Clark. Again, obviously the interest
20:24
and the excitement that she's brought into the WNBA, she's a
20:28
great player who did not make the Olympic team.
20:30
That's an interesting angle here because the Mercury who are 14
20:33
and 12, I think they had three Olympians, Britney Griner,
20:36
Taurasi and was it Cooper or Copper versus Fever who are 11
20:41
and 15. And again, big story was Caitlin
20:43
Clark not being selected to the Olympics.
20:46
So does that play a role here? Anyway, Fever are around a
20:49
three-point favorite, but what I noticed is that even though we
20:53
have two of the best scoring teams and giving up the most
20:57
points, we've actually seen this total fall.
21:00
So this total actually opened Mercury Fever at around 175 1/2.
21:05
Now it's down to 174 1/2. Now that's noble because if you
21:10
have two teams that score a lot and give up a lot, why is the
21:13
total dropping? That tells me we got some smart
21:15
money predicting a lower scoring game here.
21:17
I'm wondering if the break, the Olympic break maybe, and maybe
21:21
this is what hurt us on our over last night.
21:23
You know, you're a little bit rusty.
21:25
Maybe you, you know, that break is great to, you know, get your
21:28
rest, but maybe you're not in your groove.
21:30
Maybe your offensive sets aren't where where you want them.
21:32
So I'm thinking maybe the break fret, you know, there's one
21:35
thing between fresh legs and there's one thing between, you
21:37
know, legs that haven't played in a month.
21:38
I think there's a difference there.
21:40
So we've seen this total drop around 60% of bets and dollars
21:44
at DraftKings are on the under. That's notable because public
21:48
tends to want to bet the over. But what I like about this under
21:52
before I get to the rhythm model, which is telling us to
21:55
take the under. I have a couple systems here,
21:57
unders that fall. So when you see a total fall at
22:00
least a point. So this one fell 175 1/2 down to
22:03
174 1/2. And make sure you get the hook
22:05
if you're playing this one with me under 174 1/2 because I see
22:08
some 174 is out there. But anyway, when the total falls
22:11
at least a point, the under is 32 and 22 this year, 60%
22:16
fourteen percent ROI. And if you have an under that
22:19
falls in a high total game. So I defined a high total of 165
22:23
or more. So the total is 165 or more in
22:26
the total falls at least a point.
22:28
Those unders are 9 and 282%. It's also fishy because both
22:33
teams are top 6IN scoring and both teams are bottom four and
22:37
points allowed. So again, that goes to the fishy
22:39
angle of hey, they score a lot, they give up a lot, yet this
22:42
total is dropping. Now let's get to the good stuff,
22:45
the rhythm projections for this bout.
22:48
I almost said bout. See, I'm getting ready to get
22:50
excited to talk to UFC. Let's stick with WNBA here
22:53
though. The rhythm AI backed model is
22:57
predicting a 169.6 final total. So if the market is dropping, if
23:04
we have good system matches on the under and rhythms projection
23:08
is 169.6 and we can get an under 174 1/2, we're literally
23:13
literally getting a 5 point edge there with the total.
23:17
Also another factor or new kind of feature of Rhythm that I
23:21
love, I keep talking about this with the community model where
23:24
it basically aggregates all of the different people who have a
23:26
rhythm account and the models they've created.
23:29
And again, Rhythm, you can either follow the AI models that
23:31
Rhythm gives you or you can create your own.
23:33
So you can bet on yourself or test theories or just say, hey,
23:37
I just want give me the best model.
23:38
I'll follow that, but the community model, 78.7% are on
23:43
the under. So again, that tells me that all
23:45
the smart people in the app who I want to be with, you want to
23:48
be against the drunk guys at the bar.
23:50
You want to be with the sharp MIT guys, the goodwill hunting
23:53
guys or gals. Nearly 80% are on the under.
23:57
So again, it's not fun to sweat an under.
24:00
But I think the angle here is to stick to the data, trust the
24:03
data, trust the market, and go under here.
24:06
So I'm going to play the under guys and when it's a one O, you
24:09
know, one O 1 to 90 game, I'm going to say what an idiot I
24:11
was, but hopefully we'll leak out a winner here.
24:14
So I'm going to go under mercury and fever under 174 1/2 now to
24:21
finish up the pod on a big Friday.
24:23
Let's go to fighting in the UFC Now, guys, I must admit we're on
24:30
a hot streak here with UFC. We've won nine straight.
24:32
Let's try to make it 10 straight, and I think the
24:35
important thing is whether we've won nine straight or lost nine
24:38
straight, stick to the model. So for those who are new to
24:42
betting on UFC, there are different ways to skin a cat.
24:45
Here's the model that I've come up with over the years and you
24:47
guys probably know it by now. I want a fighter or brighter who
24:51
is younger, taller, has a longer reach, but also more
24:55
importantly, the data from the betting market.
24:57
I want a fighter who has a good sharp line move in their
24:59
direction, the lines moving in their favor.
25:02
Then I also want a good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
25:05
So as I woke up this morning and right on cue, I love this.
25:09
I expected every Friday and every Friday it's there when I
25:12
open up my when I open up my iPhone and go to my my e-mail.
25:16
John Ewing bet MGM bet splits UFC boom.
25:19
The guy is the best. I used to work with John and we
25:22
were colleagues and Co workers at Bet Labs and Sports Insights.
25:25
So those were the days a while ago.
25:28
Anyway, I was looking through the list of all the pointers,
25:32
look at the percentages, looking at the line moves and only one
25:35
jumped out to me and this one is going to be a heck of a sweat
25:39
because I landed on a heavyweight bout.
25:42
Now, if you've never sweat a heavyweight bout, you know,
25:45
typically a lot of times when we're sweating UFC, you know,
25:49
it'll be back and forth, it'll go to the the judges.
25:52
You know, there's going to be basically, you know, judges are
25:55
going to decide who's the winner, who's the loser when it
25:58
comes to UFC and, and it comes to heavyweights, typically it
26:02
doesn't get there. It doesn't go to a decision
26:04
because these guys are so big and so powerful and they're so
26:08
strong that typically someone's going to get knocked out.
26:12
So this is a heavyweight bout between Tie to Ivasa and
26:17
Jarzinho Rosenstruck. So both these guys are like 265
26:23
lbs. So there's going to be a heck of
26:25
a bout. And if you never sweat a
26:26
heavyweight bout, because a lot of times, I don't remember the
26:28
last time we had a heavyweight system match here, it's
26:31
different again. It's different at any time what
26:34
you could be down and you could have the guy knock the other guy
26:38
out and win, or you could be up and have and get knocked out.
26:40
So it's just an epic sweat. Just prepare yourself for that.
26:43
But I landed on for our UFC bite of the.
26:48
We got to come up with a name for this.
26:50
What is it, the bite of the week?
26:52
I landed on Rosenstruck. That's right.
26:56
Give me Rosenstruck and I'll tell you why #1 is that
27:00
Rosenstruck has a fantastic line move in his favor now.
27:03
Rosenstruck opened around a -. 185 favorite.
27:08
Rosenstruck is now up to -225 so -185 to -225 That is a big
27:14
adjustment. That's a big line move.
27:16
Tells me a lot of smart money came in on Rosenstruck.
27:19
Here's where it gets good, though.
27:21
Rosenstruck, Despite that huge move, is not the popular fighter
27:25
here. The popular fighter is actually
27:26
Tui Vasa. And I'm wondering if part of
27:29
that is because I was reading Tui Vasa.
27:32
I don't know if he's Australian or New Zealand, but this UFC
27:37
three O 5 is in Australia. So maybe it's kind of the home
27:40
crowd that's, you know, betting with their heart, betting on Tui
27:43
Vasa at a plus money payout. So if you look at it this way,
27:47
Tui Vasa is getting 76% of bets, yet the lines going to
27:52
Rosenstruck. So why is the line going to
27:54
Rosenstruck if Tui Vasa is the popular bet?
27:57
Tells me we have a reverse line move and a fade.
27:59
The trendy dog opportunity to fade the trendy dog Tui Vasa and
28:03
go with the sharp line move with Rosenstruck.
28:06
So Rosenstruck only getting 24% of bets, but he's getting 41% of
28:10
dollars. So low bets, higher dollars.
28:13
Good sharp line move in his favor, good RLM play in a fade
28:17
the trendy dog opportunity on a contrarian favorite.
28:20
Now let's get to the tail of the tape.
28:22
I don't love this. Rosenstruck is a little bit
28:24
older, so this is a bit of a red flag.
28:26
He's 36 years old. Tui Vasa is 31 years old.
28:30
So I don't like that. That's not we typically want the
28:32
younger fighter. They're both 6 foot 2, so that's
28:36
a wash. But in terms of the reach,
28:38
Rosenstruck's got a longer reach.
28:40
He has a 78 inch reach versus 75 for Tui Vasa.
28:44
So we don't have the the youth, but we have the reach.
28:47
We have the line move. We have a really good bet split.
28:49
Now if we dig into some supplementary factors here,
28:52
significant strikes absorbed per minute, basically how much
28:56
punishment do you take? Tui Vasa is giving up five point
29:00
O 5 significant strikes per minute.
29:02
Rosenstruck is only giving up 2.78 significant strikes per
29:06
minute. So what does that tell us?
29:07
It tells us that Rosenstruck doesn't take as much punishment.
29:10
Tui Vasa takes a lot of punishment defensively.
29:14
The defensive significant strikes allowed per minute.
29:19
You look at Rosenstruck, he's defending 47%.
29:22
Tui Vasa's defending 43%. So the better defensive fighter
29:25
here in limiting the damage is Rosenstruck.
29:30
Now, Tui Vasa, I was reading a lot about him.
29:32
He's lost four straight and he's gotten finished in all four.
29:36
Now. Why is that important?
29:37
That's important because this guy Rosenstruck is a finisher.
29:41
Finish him. You guys remember playing Mortal
29:43
Kombat back in the day and the guys like he'd be dead and his
29:46
his neck would be like his head would be Bobby.
29:48
It's like finish him. Rosenstruck is a finisher.
29:52
He's also, I was reading about he's kind of the more technical,
29:55
more athletic fighter. He's also a really good counter
29:58
striker and knockout artist. So, you know, Tui Vasa can just
30:03
be kind of crazy and, you know, just, you know, go for the kill,
30:06
whereas Rosenstruck's a little bit smarter and technical and
30:09
kind of waiting for his spot to open.
30:12
You hear this a lot in the UFC to like their chin.
30:16
You know, I was reading about basically how Tui Vasa's chin is
30:19
like, struggling recently. Like, it's suspect, like he's
30:22
been getting knocked down. And I can't exactly explain to
30:25
you why the chin is so important, but it is.
30:27
And a lot of people who know UFC talk about it.
30:30
And if your chin is suspect, that's never a good thing.
30:33
So Tui Vasa's chin is suspect. I want to bet against him now.
30:37
Take down defense, 75% for Rosenstruck, only 57% for Tui
30:42
Vasa and Rosenstruck. Better conditioning again, more
30:45
athletic, better counter striker.
30:47
His chin seems to be just fine. So you add it all up here, guys,
30:51
I know the youth advantage isn't with us, but we got a really
30:54
sharp line move, a great bet. Split, again, a favorite, only
30:57
getting 24%, yet the line is moving in his direction.
31:00
That's a play I got to make all day long, so this one's going to
31:03
be crazy. Couple heavyweights here again.
31:06
One pipe, one punch, one kick, one rear naked choke and it
31:10
could be over. Let's hope Rosenstruck comes
31:12
through for us. So give me Rosenstruck.
31:15
I got him on the money line at -225.
31:18
And again, bettress versus bets when you're not risking 2.25
31:22
units to win one, you're just always risking your one unit.
31:25
Every single play you make dog or favorite and you are looking
31:29
to get back a little less than 1/2 unit here, but I'm going
31:31
Rosenstruck at -225 So that about does it for episode 99 of
31:37
the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast on a big Friday.
31:40
Can you believe it? On Monday we're going to hit
31:42
episode 100. I feel like in a way, this pod
31:45
has been going on forever. And also it feels like I just
31:48
got it going yesterday. So it's great to see 100 pods
31:51
under our belt. This is the part of the pod
31:54
where we wrap things up and ask you a few favors.
31:57
Can you do me a big favor if you enjoy this podcast?
32:00
Can you please help me grow this podcast by putting in a little
32:03
bit of effort and giving this pod a 5 star review?
32:07
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, should be an option
32:09
there to rate and review. Give it five stars.
32:12
It really mean a lot to me. Help us grow the pod, Rise up
32:15
the charts, gain more eyeballs, gain more credibility.
32:18
If you want to recommend it to a friend that would be fantastic
32:21
as well. Maybe you got a buddy who bets a
32:23
lot of UFC doesn't win a lot and you know maybe needs a little
32:26
little hand up to kind of help him him or her to catch a few
32:30
bets. Well, boom, give him our model
32:32
here tell him listen to the pod, but a 5 star review would be
32:35
fantastic guys. Also, if there's an option to
32:37
follow the pod, click the follow button.
32:40
That way you'll be alerted as soon as it drops every
32:42
afternoon. But seriously guys, thank you
32:44
for listening. It means so much to me that
32:46
we're you know doing this together.
32:48
I know I'm kind of just talking into a mic and sometimes it
32:50
feels lonely, but I feel like I'm surrounded by friends of of
32:54
of mine who are like minded, data-driven betters.
32:56
I always feel like I'm at the book, you know, pull up a chair
32:59
to the virtual bar. Let's talk sharp line move.
33:01
So thank you for listening. Secondly, if you enjoy this pod,
33:05
because maybe this style of betting has spoken to you, you
33:08
kind of get the the idea of reading the market, leaving your
33:11
bias at the door, betting based on smart money and line moves
33:14
and system matches and bet splits, flat bedding, not
33:17
parlaying. If this style has again spoken
33:20
to you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
33:23
or maybe you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work
33:26
that I put in hosting the pod each day, then do me a favor, go
33:29
to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
33:33
Betting. That's my book, that's my baby.
33:35
Buy a copy, give it to a friend of yours.
33:37
Someone's got a birthday coming up, you know, hey, it's only 20
33:40
bucks, but you're going to learn about data-driven betting from
33:42
the inside out. How lines are set, how and why
33:45
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
33:47
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
33:51
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
33:53
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
33:56
Betting. So pick one up.
33:57
I'll sign it for you when I meet you at the book.
33:59
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
34:01
Lastly, have you taken advantage of Juice Reel and Rhythm yet?
34:05
They're my two favorite apps when it comes to betting on
34:06
sports because they're data-driven and they help you
34:09
win. So if you haven't done it yet, I
34:10
want you to go sign up first for Rhythm, especially if you're
34:14
playing WNBA right now, as well as golf.
34:17
And we're going to have football coming back here very shortly
34:19
and Rhythm is going to we got some big things planned with
34:22
Rhythm this football season. I'll just I'll tease that a
34:24
little bit, but if you haven't done it yet, sign up for a 7 day
34:27
free trial. Get those AI backed models and
34:29
predictions. When football comes around,
34:31
we're going to have some great opportunities to bet player
34:33
props, which I'm excited about, especially again, golf.
34:37
I don't do a ton of golf cuz it's just not that.
34:40
I'm not a big golf better just by nature.
34:42
But if you are, rhythm's got great predictions and
34:44
projections and models for golf. And then of course Juicereal
34:48
does a great job with their Robo Jackson AI generated best bet
34:52
picks each day. I think Robo is 1/6 straight.
34:54
So Robo is hot again what you love to see.
34:57
But also getting the sharp mush plays each day.
35:00
Getting the arbitrage bats, syncing up your sports book to
35:03
juice reel and getting a running performance and report card of
35:06
your bats is great as well as you can learn your strengths and
35:08
weaknesses. But Long story short, go sign
35:11
up, give it a shot. You got nothing to nothing to
35:13
lose because it's a 7 day free trial.
35:16
But I want you to sign up by clicking the custom links that
35:19
are located in the bio description of this podcast
35:22
should be right in that bio when you're looking on Spotify or
35:24
iTunes. So that about does it guys.
35:27
Another pod here in the books. Parting words, as always, but
35:30
especially on a Friday, whether I see you at the Borgata in
35:34
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
35:36
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the
35:40
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
35:43
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
35:45
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
35:47
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
35:49
Where the lowest juice is possible found at the South
35:52
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
35:55
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
35:57
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
35:59
You're going to show me a beautiful Patriots first half
36:03
money line. You love to see it.
36:04
You know why I love to see that? Because they won the first half
36:07
but lost the game. And ain't that ain't that a
36:09
beauty? We picked the right half to bet
36:11
on them. But guess what?
36:12
First one's on me, next one's on you.
36:14
We're going to post about the book Sweatsharp Contrarian plays
36:17
all night long. So wish the best of luck
36:19
everyone have a great Friday, have an even better weekend.
36:22
And as always, stay sharp. Stay contrarian.
36:25
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
36:27
house. Always be with the smart money,
36:29
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
36:32
Of course not Nothing's a guarantee in sports betting.
36:34
Anything can happen in a one off.
36:36
But here's the thing long term. If you can make bets with your
36:38
head and not your heart based on market data against the public
36:42
with the house with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays get that
36:46
closing line value. If you can do that, you're going
36:48
to be successful sports better. So enjoy the sweats.
36:51
Everyone have a great weekend. Remember, no pods on Saturday,
36:54
Sunday, but but, but, but I do have that sharp report that I'll
36:58
post on Twitter at Josh under Score Insights. 3 baseball games
37:02
for tomorrow and Sunday. You can, you can check it out on
37:04
Twitter. And then we'll be back on Monday
37:06
for a big episode #100 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
37:10
podcast powered by Rhythm. Have a great weekend everybody.
37:14
And let's see if we can win a heavyweight point on Saturday.
37:18
Good luck guys, talk to you soon.