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NCAAB + NBA + NFL Best Bets Super Bowl Sunday 2/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins. Arch e is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slumpy.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: The slump, discontinuous slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. Toad School
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Sports Super Bowl Sunday, February eighth, yesterday, we did not
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: do well on the show. Two and three started out
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: nice with an easy Utah cover. It was exactly what
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I thought Kansas not putting up a ton of offense,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: win and non cover from Kansas basically the whole way.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I think it was a wire to wire cover for Utah.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Northwestern State played it just monstrously ugly, low scoring game,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and they wound up not being able to cover that.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: You might have been able to get a two on
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: that instead of a one and a half, but they
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: lost by four. They didn't even get fifty points and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: still only lost by four. That game was horrible, and
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: then Seattle absolutely blew it. I am absolutely not happy
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: about that at all. Seattle was winning that game by
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: margin throughout the middle of the game. It just it
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: wasn't a high scoring enough game. But they blew the game.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: But I think they lost the game outright, and they
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: were winning the game, probably by double digits in the
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: middle of the game. I was like, all right, this
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: is going well. They were still winning by several points
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: pretty late in the game. Absolute implosion from Seattle, even
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: though they're known for having a good defense. I'm not happy.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: And then we did have a Pacific was an easy win,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: so one of the West Coast Conference games got there.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That was a laugher. Then the Atlanta Hawks also blew
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: it for me, So all three losses were close the Hawks.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: The Hawks never had a huge like lead in the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: game or anything like that, but they did lead for
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: various points in the game. The game was close down
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: the stretch. They definitely had chances to do it and
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: they did not. So, yeah, we're gonna move on from that.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I guess if things are rigged, I guess I shouldn't
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: have had the Hawks. Yes, so I just liked the situation.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: But if you think about it, people were pointing out
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: yesterday how the George Mason Patriots beat the Saint Joe's Hawks.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Patriots over Hawks. Then that game you had Charlotte Hornets,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Drake May went to North Carolina beating the Hawks. Uh,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: North Carolina over the Hawks. I don't know, man, I
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. Is everything rigged? I don't know. We'll find
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: out today. I gave you my Super Bowl plays already.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I will really reiterate them in this show. But go
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: watch my super Bowl show. It's not too long. It's
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: like an hour. I think you have time to do it.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: If you want to go see my actual analysis on that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I'll do like a really quick breakdown of all of
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: them at the end of the show. Here. I did
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: add one more play as well, I think two days
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: ago one more prop So i'll talk about that and
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: how I like break down the how I break it
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: all down. I'm gonna add one college basketball play and
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: that'll be it. There's a short NBA card as well,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: which I'm gonna avoid. But there is one big game.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: The Celtics are playing a pretty big game today, so
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: there is that. Alexander, what's up man? It is not
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: West Virginia, although I probably agree with that, Garrett, what's
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: up man? Yes, you must be happy about that. The
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: duke implosion in North Carolina getting the win, I'd be
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: looking to fade North Carolina in their next game. I
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know what it is, but that's what I'm
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking to do. That was a monster win, obviously.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: And then you have John shire Or being a baby.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: All he does is go out there and complain about
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: court storming every time it happens to them. It's like, okay, well,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: then don't lose the game. Like you're the better team,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: you have a big lead in the game. How about
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: you don't lose and then you don't have to worry
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: about it. It's stupid, really really stupid, Kyle. What's up?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: The Dolphins? Theah their their absolute ass. I am sort
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: of neutral on the Patriots at this point. I hate
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: their fan base, but we're going I like Drake May,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna go with the Uh, We're going with
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the Patriots because that's my play for today. I did
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: actually bet it as well, even though you know me,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting to have my funds freed up and figure
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: out what I'm really gonna actually do. But I did
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: actually put money on the Patriots side. What Zipper, What
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I do not purchase from fanatics, Let's just put it
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: that way. This is from another place where I can
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: get the same quality, possibly better at wholesale for like
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: thirty So that's where this is from. And it's still
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: got the stitching on numbers and everything. I don't know.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: You could tell me if you think it looks any
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: worse than a fanatics. Jersey fanatics are a scam. They
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: do also have a sports book that's available here in
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: mass shy or yeah, he's a baby. Let's get into
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: this man. College basketball, I'm gonna try to run through this.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: The first game up is a pretty good game in
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: the American Conference between what I think are the two
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: best teams in that conference, Tulsa in South Florida. Both
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna show up for this game. I think
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: there's pretty much no question about that. Although Tulsa did
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: just beat FAU in their last game, so they're playing
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game coming up a pretty good
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: road win there, so that type of setup isn't great,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: but I do think that will show up. And one
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: big part of this handicap is Tulsa. I believe they
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: were a small favorite in the first game at home
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: against South Florida and they lost the game by double digits,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: so there is a little bit of a road revenge
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: angle here. Really it would be that Tulsa knows what
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: went wrong in that game and they'd be able to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: make the adjustments. Maybe that will be what happens here
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Self Florida. They are not going to overlook this game either, though.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Self Florida is coming off of an easy win over Utsa,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: so the situational setup based on what these teams did
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: in the last game is actually better for South Florida.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: One other thing is that people are gonna see Tulsa
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: as this really pretty looking record, Yet Self Florida is
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite here because they're
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be a decent amount a decent amount of home court.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I do actually think Tulsa is the better team, but
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: it's not by a significant margin. So this line is
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I would say it's maybe slightly high, but it is
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: something to take note of. When the team with the
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: worst record has a favorite price attached to them, that
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: is usually something to look at. However, in this game,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: I think I would lean to Tulsa just because of
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: the avenging road underdog angle is pretty wrong and the
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: market does seem to be agreeing with it, and I
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: think they're the better team, and I think the line
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: might be slightly high. I think you know you're gonna
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: get an effort out of them, and if they change
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: some things up from the first game, South Florida might
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: not know what Tulsa is about to do, which is
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: why that zigzag if you will does work more often
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: than it doesn't. Seventy percent of the tickets are on
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: South Florida, sixty six percent of the cash on Tulsa.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with Tulsa plus the points in that one.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: South Florida is looking like they're teetering on being a
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: four point favorite. There. Yes, sir jay Forte, what's up man? Yes,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out everybody, dirty sock? What's up man?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: All right? That's on espn U. By the way, at noon.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: All the games are in the afternoon because the Super
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Bowl gets the wide open TV spot. Obviously, man, no
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: sports can go on during the super Bowl, so all
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the basketball is done by five pm or so. Also
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: at noon USC at Penns on the Big Ten Network.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Really great representation of the Big Ten here, USC coming
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: up a really nice win over Indiana. That was a
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: win that I gave out on the show. Nice spot
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: to play USC in that when we got it. Right now,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: they're going on the road to Penn State. I know
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Penn State's bad, but there is the potential that USC
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: is gonna overlook this game because they do have Ohio
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: State on deck USC Ohio State, they're both kind of
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: tournament bubble teams right now, Illinois on deck after that
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: when they return home big win over Indiana they're coming
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: off of which Indiana is another bubble team. So USC
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: does kind of need to notch these wins like it
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: would be very good for them to notch these wins
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: against these bubble teams. Not that I mean, if they
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: lose to Ben's State, that's obviously not gonna be good
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: for their resume either. But there is definitely the chance
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: they can overlook this game. Penn State. They're definitely bad.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: They got that win, which was another win that I
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: gave out on the show against Minnesota. That was their
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: first conference win. I thought that might to get that
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: monkey off the back, give them some momentum. Of course,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: they were not gonna win at Michigan, but they got
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed at Michigan, losing one, ten to sixty nine.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Anytime you lose like that to anybody, I know, it's
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the country, but I
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: think you do show up with some sense of pride
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: after you like, you know, you've got to show up
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and try to do better than that after a game
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: like that. Nobody wants to lose to that extent to anybody.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So I like Penn State in this game, plus the points,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: USC only a three and a half point favorite. Four
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: point favorite looks way too easy to play USC based
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: on these teams records, so that is not what I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: would do again. It's also a pretty unfamiliar venue for
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: them because they're new to the Big Ten. I don't
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: even know if they've played at Penn States as they've
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: started participating in the Big Ten. So definitely not a
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: familiar venue for them. At the very least, ninety three
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety four percent of the cash on USC,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be a heavily public side. Looks too easy
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: a lot you know, when things look too easy, A
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: lot of times they are not. Although there are some
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: situations where I will actually agree with that side if
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: there is a strong situation, but that is not one
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of them. The situation, in fact, I think is negative
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: for USC in that one, so lean Penn State plus
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the points. CBS has the classic football Rivalry Part two
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: in basketball number two, Michigan at Ohio State. Ohio State
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: played pretty well at Michigan, already covering but losing the game.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Losing by twelve at Michigan. No shame in that, man.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I think Ohio State will show up in this game
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: as well. Of course, they get to host Michigan now
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: in a little bit of revenge, but maybe because they
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: played pretty competitively against Michigan, maybe Michigan will take them
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: seriously as well. Ohio State coming in off an easy
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: win at Maryland. Maryland is absolutely terrible, maybe worse than
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Penn State, to be honest, I don't know. I'd have
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: to see Ken Bump's power ratings on that, but I
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: just don't care right now. Michigan coming off that win
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: where they looked really good even though it was against
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Penn State, putting up one hundred and ten points. I mean,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: everybody's gonna want to be on a team when they
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: just scored one hundred and ten points. Man, So I
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: think Michigan's gonna be the public side here. Not really
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion here, but I would probably have to
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: lean to taking the points of Ohio State, although, like
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I said, because Ohio State did cover barely against Michigan
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: in the other game, maybe that means Michigan will take
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: them a bit more seriously. But still I don't know, man,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: because it was still a double digit win for Michigan.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So Michigan up from nine to ten and a half here,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: But seventy seven percent of tickets only seventy one percent
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Michigan. The percentage has just changed
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: to us. Start agreeing with me. By the way, I'd
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: probably take the points, but again not a strong opinion there. Fox.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Here's your Texas Tech West Virginia game here, number thirteen.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech at West Virginia laying not a huge price
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: with Texas Tech does look some way easy to do here.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: But remember West Virginia. They play a really really slow
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: brand of basketball, even slower than under the Huggins eraw
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: with what's his face from North Texas. There very very
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: slow basketball from West Virginia. They play a lot of ugly,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: low scoring games, which is good when you want them
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: as a home underdog. That's a good thing because they
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: get involved in these just monstrously ugly games. The totals
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: one thirty six with money looking like it's coming in
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: on the under, so I probably wouldn't disagree with the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: under either. I think you're getting two teams that are
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: pretty good on the defensive end here, although maybe that's
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: just my perception of Texas Tech from years past. Actually yeah,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I keep forgetting that Texas Tech is actually better on
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: offense this year than defense, and they play like a
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: mid temp boll But I do think West Virginia is
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to slow this thing down to a crawl.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: And Texas Tech is coming off a big game primetime
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: loss to Kansas. They did lose the favorite, but that
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: type of loss, a big game like that that can
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: hang you over and having a to Morgantown bit of
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot. Now. I wish they had Arizona
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: up next in their next game, because then we'd be
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: looking at a sandwich. I might be on West Virginia
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: if that was the case, but they do have Colorado
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: mixed in there, so I'm not gonna do it. But
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I would agree with West Virginia plus the points in
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: this one. It'll be a big game for them hosting
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech at home. I don't believe these teams have
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: played otherwise this year, and I think this is the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: only time they play this year. West Virginia coming up
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: another one of their patented hideous games or I said
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: that game was probably gonna be an under against Cincinnati.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati just can't score, man. West Virginia went in there
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: and beat them. Decent win for West Virginia there, But
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for a home game against Texas Tech
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: and nobody will want West Virginia because they play these
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: hideous games. In that game, neither team even got to sixty.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: So yeah, West Virginia would be my lean in that one.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: They're getting six now from Texas Tech, eighty five percent
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and eighty six percent of the cash
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: on Texas Tech. They're gonna the public side, like I said,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech will be so yes, West Virginia would be
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: a lean there. My best bet in college of basketball
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: is next and this one is I dude, I know
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: we're we're gonna be on a really, really bad team here,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: but I think the number is pretty big and the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: situation calls for this. We're gonna go on with UNC
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Greensboro plus twelve and a half ken Bum, I believe
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: has this number at eleven. It goes to eleven, so
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: that is fine with me, even though, yes, I know
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: if you look at ken Bum's numbers, I know we're
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: fading Firman here in Furman is the better team. He's
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: got Furman, you know, just in the pretty much in
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the middle of the pack everywhere. Offense, defense, they're balanced,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: they play on the slower side of things. They are
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky according to ken Bum, But I
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: know if you look at Greensboro, their offense is not
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: that much worse than Furman's with their defense is absolutely miserable,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: like bottom fifteen defense. I know, I don't usually like
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: teams like that, but again I think the numbers too
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: high and the situation calls for this. Both teams play slow,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: so again that might mean that points might be a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: little bit more difficult to come by in this game,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: even though I know the totals at about one point fifty,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: so it's not exactly a low total. And that's because
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Greensboro can't stop opposing offenses. They are also on the
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: luckier side of things, which worries me. I know Greensboro,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: ken Bum is telling you they've overperformed, although he's telling
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: you Furman has overperformed as well. Now for you and
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: see Greensboro, I think the setup is fine because they
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: just broke a three game losing streak with a home
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: win over a Western Carolina team that has pulled off
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: some upsets in the Soacon here this year the Southern Conference,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: but they're not a very good team, So I think
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that's just a good win in that UNC Greensboro will
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: break that losing momentum and carry it forward. Now they're
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: playing Furman. Furman already went into UNC Greensboro and embarrassed
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: them by twenty three points. And you know what I
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: say about that, when you have an avenging road underdog
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: in the second meeting, I do like to look that
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: way because the team that went into their place and
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: beat them, especially if they're a big favorite, if they
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: went in and they just crushed that other team on
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: their own floor, they're gonna overlook that team more often
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: than not. And the team that got crushed might be
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: able to make the adjustments or whatever. So I know
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: you would see Greensboro was way down this year, but
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I think they'll get up for this game for those reasons.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna be really easy for Furman
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to overlook this, especially when you see what Furman just did.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: They just lost the three game win streak I talk
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: about sometimes when you lose a win streak, you'll be hungover.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: But look at what the game was where they lost
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: that streak. They had to go to East Tennessee State,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the top team in the conference. They took them into
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: overtime on the road and fell just short. So I
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be in a flat spot after that. Man,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: this has like hangover, let down, whatever you want to
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: call it, written all over this thing. Furman was winning
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: this game too, like they had East Tennessee pretty much
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: dead to rights. Furman was winning this game by double
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: digits in the second half and they fell apart lost
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the game in overtime. That's just absolutely brutal for Firman Man.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: And they shot really well in the game too. They
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: shot fifty three percent from the field in the game,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: which is part of the reason they were even in
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the game, because East Tennessee did have more possessions than
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: they did, although Furman did actually out rebound them. Oddly enough,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: it was a very strange box score in that game.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: But still that was a huge game. Now they get
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: this UNC Greensboro team where they already embarrassed on the road,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: and up next they got to play Mercer, who is
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: legitimately one of the better teams in this conference as
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: well and is right behind them in the standings. Although
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: they did beat Mercer already once but only by two
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: at home, so that is a big that's a bigger
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: game up next man against Mercer. So we have a
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot here plus an avenging road underdog angle here.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: UNC Greensboro will be the play here. Looks like the
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: cash is not really agreeing with me on this one
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: right now. Sixty nine percent of the tickets and eighty
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Furhman. But this is
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: what we're going with. This is my situational read. This
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is where it leads me. This is my only non
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: super Bowl play of the day. It'll wet your palette
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: before the Super Bowl. UNC greens Borrow plus the points
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: is the play, all right. We have a few games
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: that are not actually on TV, but all the non
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: TV ones are on ESPN, plus Wichita at Tulane in
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the American It's not the greatest game, but I do
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: think Wichita is a bit under the radar. Still, they
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: just beat Charlotte. I've been talking about how Charlotte is
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: just a complete fraud, like the fact that they're up
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: here top four in the conference standings BS. They're not
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: good at all. But Wichita just beat them. That should
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: be a win. That'll just give them momentum coming into this.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I think they'll show up for this game. But the
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: problem is they do have South Florida and Tulsa on deck.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: So there is the worry about the look ahead there
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: for Wichita because those are gonna be huge games against
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: what I think are the best two teams in this
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: com conference. Tulane is not really that good, so there
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: is the potential that they that Tulane is overlookable here.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Tulane's coming of a nice road win at Memphis, though
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I know Memphis might be a little bit down this year,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: but Memphis was definitely a favorite. I think a fairly
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: substantial favorite. Although I said that I leaned to Tulane
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: in that game. They pulled out the they pulled off
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the outright win. I think they were about eight and
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs in that one. So they are
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: coming off a pretty big upset, So that kind of
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: puts Tulane in what I think is maybe a letdown
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: spot here because maybe they just don't care that much
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: about another team that's in the middle of the pack
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: that doesn't have the gravitas that Memphis does in this conference,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: if you know what I mean. That did break a
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: losing streak for Tulane, though they lost five games in
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: a row. So sometimes when you break a losing streak
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: that will propel you into the next game. I just
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: you know, based on the spot, there is the worry
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: about the look ahead. But I don't I don't want
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: to play a Tulane team that is coming of an
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: upset that I would lean to Wichita. They're laying three
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: and a half on the road. They are laying that
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: for a reason they are the better team fairly substantially.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Tulane is also setting up to look like a public
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: underdog here, a very dreaded public home underdog, which is
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: not what you want. Eighty percent of the tickets and
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: only fifty nine percent of the cash on Tulane, So
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: I would want to fade them when I see a
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: market read like that as well. Public thinking that there's
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: value taking the points. Oh, Tulane, the record isn't that
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: much worse. Yeah, but the oddsmakers are telling you Wichita
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: is the significantly better team there, and so is Memphis
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: against Charlotte, by the way, which is the next game here.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Not a great game, although Charlotte again is up here
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: in the American standings. They're just not actually that good, man.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: They made a run through. They've beaten a lot of
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the bad teams in this conference, man like. They mostly
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: have just beaten the dormats of the conference. They already
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: played Rice twice. They beat UTSA East Carolina, an overrated
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Tulane team at home, and then a good win at
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Tulsa for sure or not Tulsa excuse a Temple, They're
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: not gonna beat Tulsa. They did win at Temple, that's
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a decent win, and they beat wichitad home, which is
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: an all right win as well. But I'm not oppressed
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: by this Charlotte resume. They did just lose a four
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: game win streak with that loss to Wichita. Second straight
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: road game here. Surel They'll probably get up for a
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: game against Memphis, because everybody does. Memphis is coming on
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: a nice road win against UAB so there is that,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if that's gonna put Memphis in
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot. Really, I think I would probably lean
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: to Memphis here. I'm looking at the line, it just
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: kind of looks ridiculous, like why would the lesser why
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: would the team with the lesser record be laying almost
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: ten points. Well, that's again because the oddsmakers are telling
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: you who the better team really is here, and that
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: is Memphis by a decent margin despite what their record
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: looks like. They had a more difficult out of conference schedule, etc.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: So I would probably lean to Memphis here. It's not
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: a situation where I think it's like really horrible for
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: them or any sixty percent of the tickets at sixty
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Charlotte though, with Memphis
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: laying eight and a half right now, So that's the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: market read there, slightly disagreeing with Memphis. CBS Sports two
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: PM has this Big twelve game between UCF and Cincinnati.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: These teams did already play once UCF one by one
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: at home and didn't cover, and I did like Cincinnati
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: in that game to cover, which they did. Now UCF
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: is having to play a second straight road game and
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: they did just have to go to Houston coming off
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: that big win over Texas Tech. They were not able
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: to and that was a win for US by the way,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: with Texas Tech. With UCF over Texas Tech, they were
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: not able to maintain that effort two straight games. I
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: was not surprised by that really. Now they're coming off
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: of that game, still might be a bit of a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: difficult spot having to play these big games like this,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: and they did again still already beat Cincinnati, although it
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: was a close game where maybe they win. Will still
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: take Cincinnati seriously because Cincinnati did give them a close game.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is coming up that ugly home loss and just
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: staying at home though ugly loss to West Virginia, I
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: should say, I think the spot does set up better
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: for Cincinnati here and they're laying points, which just looks crazy.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know that I want to lay
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: points really ever with Cincinnati because they just can't score.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: But they are good on the defensive end. But there's
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: a reason why they're laying points here against the UCF
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: team that is likely to make the tournament at this point, Like,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: why would Cincinnati has this bad record be laying three
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: and a half right, Like the public will be all
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: over UCF getting the points in this one. Looks like
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: they are ninety three percent of the tickets on Central Florida,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of the cash. I'd lean Cincinnati fade
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the public in that one. The public, these public underdogs are,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: they're like they're a total red flag man that you
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: definitely want to stay away from. But it's a game.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna avoid Maryland at Minnesota on the Big
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Ten network. I don't know if I could bring myself
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: to give out a play on Maryland. Man, I'm avoiding
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the game. Maryland is just really really bad, but you
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: got to think they're gonna show up for some of
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: these games. Like nobody wants to keep losing by twenty
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: thirty points every game. Maryland is awful, but I think
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll be able to hang in this game against Minnesota.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: We had Minnesota in their last game. They caught Michigan
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: State in a really good spot to catch them. Michigan
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: State was in a big time sandwich spot. We got
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the win with Minnesota. They want outright. That was a
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: monster win for Minnesota beating Michigan State at home as
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: nine point underdogs so staying at home, this does look
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: like a flat spot for Minnesota. They do have to
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: go out to California after this tool. I don't know
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: how big that really is because Washington and Oregon are
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: not good this year, but so it's not really a
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: look ahead really, I think it is simply a letdown
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: spot though in Minnesota does play slow and they don't
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: score a lot, so Minnesota asking them to lay points
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: like this is not really a great thing for Minnesota.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: And you know, I also don't like when a team
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: was a huge anti public underdog one game, like Minnesota
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: was against Michigan State and now they're like a public
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: favorite in the next game. That's a red flag too
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: where you probably want to fade that team, like just
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: completely shifting roles from one game to the next. So
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I would have to play Maryland in this game. If
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play it, I would take the points
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: with Maryland doesn't make my car though Minnesota down from
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: nine to eight and a half, seventy two percent of
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: tickets on Minnesota, fifty five percent of the cash on Maryland. Though.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: If I was gonna add any other game, it would
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: be this one though, As I mean, it's real, real ugly.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this is my second second strongest opinion would
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: be Maryland plus the points. The total is pretty low
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: at one thirty nine. Rice in UAB probably the worst
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: of all the games on TV today, at least from
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a college basketball perspective. Rice did just beat North Texas.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: They're down this year. They'll probably show up for a
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: game at UAB. Ua B has been a decent team
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: in this conference for the most part. UAB coming off
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a tough game against Memphis. They did lose by ten
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: though at home, but they also do have Tulsa up next,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna be a revenge game too. Tulsa beat
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: them at UAB, so UAB maybe in a look ahead
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: here as well, I would probably have to lean Rice
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: in this one. Uab's laying eight and a half. They
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: have eighty eight percent of the tickets ninety nine percent
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: of the cash. It looks like for now, but I
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: don't know how much I really buy that that percentage
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: is accurate. I would be leaning towards Rice in that one.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: And then the last game on Fox Sports one is
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: a big ten game between Northwestern and Iowa, and I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: think Northwestern is very undervalued. Man the fact that the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: record looks really bad. I keep saying that they're not
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: as bad as their record looks, and they just got
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: absolutely blasted by Illinois, and that, unfortunately was a loss.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I know I've been mentioning some winners that we've had
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: on the show that was a loser. We have losers
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: here too. I'm not gonna lie about it. We had
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: to lose Day yesterday too, But yeah, Northwestern got absolutely
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: annihilated by their big brother and rival, Illinois. Illinois is
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: a very good team, but I thought that the spot
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: was bad for Illinois. I thought Northwestern would put in
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: a much better effort. They just couldn't hit anything. Man,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: they couldn't hit any shots. So coming out of that
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: an embarrassing forty point loss, I think they will show
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: up in this game at Iowa, even though yeah, they
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: have Michigan next. But I don't think you're gonna overlook
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: whoever your next opponent is if you have a loss
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: like that. Iowa comes into this with it coming back
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: from the Pacific Coast, so they do have travel involved here.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: It went out there and they beat Oregon AM Washington.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Not that impressive because Iowa was, of course better than
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: those two teams, But I don't know, man, that return
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: from the Pacific Coast is still kind of a weird
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: thing for these Big ten teams to do. Unfortunately, they
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: don't have a big game up next, they only have Maryland.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: But I would probably look towards taking the points with
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: the Northwestern in this one. Anyway, Iowa already dropped from
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half to twelve. Don't see the percentages yet.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Some of the value looks like it's a little bit
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: gone here. But Iowa plays. We know they're the Ben
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: McCollum Iowa. Now, they're not the Iowa of the of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: the McCaffrey days where they just speed the game up
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: and go really really fastest score one hundred points or whatever,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: and no, Iowa goes really slow and they like might
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: not even score seventy sometimes that's what they do now.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: So laying twelve with them total one thirty nine and
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: a half against an underrated Northwestern team, yeah, I would
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: not want to do that with Iowa. I would take
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: the points with Northwestern in that one. It's gonna be
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: difficult for Iowa to be able to cover a number
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: like that. I think they'll probably win, but I would
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: not want to be you know, I would definitely fade
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: them from a spread perspective there, all right, NBA, there
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: are four games. I don't have anything in the NBA here,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: but I do have opinions. Of course. The big game
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: on ABC is Nicks and Celtics. Huge game, man, The
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Celtics might be playing with a little bit of a
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: chip on their shoulder here. The teams are one and
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: one against each other this year, with I believe the
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: home team winning each game if I'm not mistaken, which
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: would make sense in a minute when I show you
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: what the team's road and home records are. But the Celtics,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: because they lost to the Knicks in the playoffs last
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: year playoffs, the Celtics might still have a little bit
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: of a chip on their shoulder there. Yeah. The Knicks
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: beat the Celtics at home in the second game of
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the season, and the Celtics beat them in Boston in December.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: This game is in Boston. The Knicks are coming off
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: a blowout loss to Detroit, and a lot of times
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: I will like a team to bounce back from a blowout,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: and I liked Detroit in that game. Unfortunately, it was
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: not a play that I gave out, but I was
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: correct about Detroit in that one. The Knicks were coming
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: off a double ot game against Denver, and I thought
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: they might even look ahead to the Celtics game, to
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: be honest, because it's a big TV game on Super
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday. So it was kind of a bad spot
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: for them. But now they're in a spot where they
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: just lost a long win streak. They lost an eight
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: game win streak, and you know, I talk about when
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: teams lose really long win streaks like that, a lot
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: of times they will be hung over in the next game.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: For the Celtics, the Celtics are coming off of a
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: game where they were getting annihilated in this game by Miami.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: That was a win for me the other day Friday Night,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: My only plan Friday was Miami plus the points. That
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: was a win. On the show, Miami was beating the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Celtics by twenty points in that game. Man, Miami probably
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: should have won the game. But the Celtics did what
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: they do, and when they get punched in the mouth,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the Celtics come back. In a lot of games, man,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: They're able to erase huge deficits even with their bench players.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: But on the other hand, when the Celtics get a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: big lead, they get complacent and blow big leads too,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: But that was a game where they're way behind they
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: came back and won. But having a really really bad
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: game like that as a favorite, and again the reason
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: why I faded the Celtics. They were coming off a
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: huge opset of Houston with Brown not even playing in
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the game, and they had the Knicks on decks on
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a sandwich spot there, and it was.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: But now the Celtics continued their momentum, which I think
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: is good. They didn't lose their win streak. They got
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: punched in the mouth and they got a scare, a
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: real scare out of Miami. And when a favorite gets
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: a scare like that, I like to look at them
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: in the next game. So I do prefer the Celtics
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: in this game. And then if you look at the
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: home road splits, the Knicks, believe it or not, are
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: just awful on the road eleven and thirteen straight up
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: on the road. The Celtics are good at home seventeen
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and eight straight up at home. I know you're gonna
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: be laying points with the Celtics here, but that is
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: probably what I would do if I was gonna play it. Interestingly,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the osbeakers are actually telling you the Celtics are the
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: better team, which is really crazy to think about because
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm basically on record basically saying that
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: I think the Knicks are the best team in the
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference. If the Celtics had Tatum, they probably would be.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Detroit is totally for real. I
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: think Detroit is probably third. So it's very interesting to
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: see the Celtics laying four here and they're getting the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: money sixty three percent of the tickets, seventy five percent
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Celtics. I'm not gonna disagree
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: with the market in this one. I'll have a slight
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: opinion towards the Celtics hopefully they win as a Celtic fan.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: But the line being four, I was like, the Knicks
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: have to have injuries or something going on here, right,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: But it looks like the main guys that might be
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: injured are all game time decisions. So I expect all
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: of them to play if they're gonna be if they're
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: gonna be available, And that's heart and Anobi and Karl
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Anthony Towns. They're all game time decisions. But we'll see. Man. Yeah,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: so Heart's questionable again. If somebody is questionable and they
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: have this big game, Annobie questionable, they're all gonna try
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: to play if they can. Man, Yeah, all three of
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: them are questionable. Kats is an I thing. I mean,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: I highly doubt that he doesn't play. So yeah, it's
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: interesting that the line is four because that would seem
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: to indicate there might be an injury on the Knicks side,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: but there doesn't really seem to be one. So those
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that game. Jeff, what's up man? Northwestern?
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: On the money line, it's possible. I mean, Iowa plays
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: all these slow, slow games that could be pretty close
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: for comfort there. I don't know. I wouldn't be shocked
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: if that happened, But it's not like a really really
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: horrific spot for Iowa or anything. Miami at Washington. Miami
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: is coming up that huge performance against the Celtics. Like
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I said, they went into Boston and they had the
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Celtics totally on the ropes. I don't know how Miami
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: blew the game, to be honest. They were winning the
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: game by twenty I think in the second half they
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: lose the game. That's a very deflating loss. Man. When
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: you have a good team on the ropes like that,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: as an underdoing you fall just short. Looks like a
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: big time hangover spot. Now going to Washington, Unfortunately Miami
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: doesn't have a big game on deck. They play Utah tomorrow.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: They're in a Celtic Pride sandwich though, between Boston and Utah,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the teams in that movie. But still it looks like
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: a flat spot where they may very well overlook the Wizards.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: The Wizards though, they're on a back to back, so
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I really want anything to do
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: with the Wizards, and they're traveling back from New York
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: and they're playing a third game in four and as
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, which isn't great. The Wizards got
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: me that win against Detroit. I gave them out plus
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: the points, and I said, whenever you take an underdog,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: just put a little bit on the money line, man.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: So the Wizards did get one. That one done for
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: us on the show. With that upset of Detroit. They
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: were in a bad spot after that, for sure. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: just didn't know if laying six made a lot of
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: sense with a team like the Nets there, but they
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: did cover, so the Wizards are coming up a pretty
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: ugly loss to the Nets yesterday. It was a bad
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: spot for the Wizards. I would lean to the Wizards
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: here because I think the spot is really bad for Miami,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: but I don't really want to get involved with a team,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: a bad team on a back to back with travel,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: so I'll stay away. But I probably take the points
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of the Wizards if I was gonna do anything with it.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Heat have gone up from ten and a half to
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. They are public seventy five percent
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets but ninety percent of the cash. It
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: looks like right now in the Heat as well. But
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: I also think you might get a little bit extra
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: line value in Washington, at least because they are on
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: the back to back. The oddsmakers have to skew the
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: number a little bit. So sometimes it is fine to
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: actually be on the team on the back to back,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: even though I generally avoid it, just because I really
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: do think it is not the greatest spot. But Miami
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: is in a very bad spot off of that Celtics game. Stacks.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: What's up man, Thanks for hanging out all right, Indiana
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: at Toronto. Indiana coming off a close loss to a
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Yannis list Milwaukee team. It looks like they're now going
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: to keep Yanas to try to rebuild the team around him.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Jannis has not been happy, man. The team is just
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: not playing well around him. They have some other pretty
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: good players there though, Like I don't know, like they
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: still have Porous, Right, he's good, So I don't know Indiana.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: They're coming off that loss to Milwaukee going to Toronto.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: They do have the Knicks on deck, but I don't
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: really see them overlooking Toronto. They're probably not gonna overlook
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: anybody while they're mired in a three game losing street.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Toronto did just beat Chicago. They're staying at home here,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: but they have a couple of days off, so yeah,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: they're rested. But they're coming off a decent win and
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: they have a big game on deck against Detroit. So
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really love Toronto in this game. I'd probably
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: lean to taking the points with Indiana. The market seems
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: like it does agree. Raptors are an eight and a
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, seventy four percent of the tickets on
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: them and sixty six percent of the cash The other
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: thing about the Raptors is you typically do want to
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: fade them as a home favorite. They're actually not good
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: at home, believe it or not. Fifteen to twelve straight
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: up at home, and you're asking them to lay points
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: like this, And if you look at their history this season,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the Raptors are not good as a big favorite, a
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: favorite in this price range. They have failed to cover
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: the majority of the time, and they've lost some of
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: those games outright too, So the Raptors do not do
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: well as a big favorite. Indiana though, they're three and
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: twenty one straight up on the road. That is really
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: really awful. So they are not a good road team
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: at all. Actually decent at home, but horrible on the road.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want anything to do with Indiana either,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: although you know, you don't need them to win the game,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: you just need them to cover. And then ESPN at
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: three PM has Clippers and at tules Clippers. Don't know
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: when they're gonna have Darius Garland. We'll have to figure
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: that out. I guess the Clippers are coming off almost
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: losing at Sacramento, so that might kind of shock them
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: into focus here. They might have been looking ahead to Minnesota.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: I know the Clippers had come off that ugly loss
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: to Cleveland right after the trade with them. Hardin also
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: did not play in that game for Cleveland. But yeah,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: the Clippers, they bounced back, so they did get a win.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: It was a win that probably scared them against Sacramento,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: and again, maybe they were looking ahead to this, so
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: I expect focus out of the Clippers coming into this one. Minnesota.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: They just lost at home to the New to New
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Orleans though, which is just a horrendous loss. And I
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: did like New Orleans in that game. I told you,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: I just didn't love the spot for Minnesota. They were
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip, and you know, I
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: always look to fade teams or just stay away when
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: they're returning home, so they got caught in that spot.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: But when a team has a horrible game in the
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: return home spot like that, they usually will do a
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: lot better in the next game. So I think it's
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: an okay spot for both teams. But you know, I
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: might have to lay I might have to agree with
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: laying it with the Tea Wolves in this one. Man.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: Although they're public seventy percent of the tickets, only sixty
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on them, So the money
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: is seemingly disagreeing with that. But eight and a half
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: point favorite staying at home off just an atrocious loss
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: that was kind of explainable in a bad spot there, Yeah,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I would probably have to lead to the Tea Wolves
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: unless there's some injury situation coming into play that would
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: indicate that I shouldn't. I don't. I don't really think
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: there is. And yeah, Garland still won't be there for
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the Clippers, like basically from Minnesota generally, you're just like
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: figuring out what what is the status of Ante? He
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: had words pretty much as long as he has continued
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: to play, then we're fine. Yeah, he played in the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: game against New Orleans. He'll play tonight too, so or
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: of today. So yeah, I think I would probably lean
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to the t Wolves in that one. But the money
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: seems to be disagreeing, maybe thinking the t Wolves are
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: too heavy of a favorite. The Clippers have been like
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: a professional side for a bit now, like the professionals
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: have basically been. They've been leaning towards the Clippers because
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers have been respecting the Clippers recently because they've
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: been a lot better recently and they're better than their
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: overall record looks, so they probably do deserve that amount
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: of respect, but in this game, yeah, I just don't
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: really like them, all right. And then we do have
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, where I already talked about it, so
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go in detail here, but uh yeah,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: check out my Super Bowl special show for it. But yes,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: uh so, first off, we do have the New England
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Patriots that'll be like, it's dude, don't over bet on anything,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: even if it's the super Bowl. It's one game bet
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: size appropriately, I'm I would I recommend making this a
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: regular size bet, just the same that you bet on
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: anything else. Pretty much, if you have like ranges, you know,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: then that would depend on how strongly you feel about this,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: But don't bet more than you can afford. Obviously, bank
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: roll it like basically pretty much you're like like heavier
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: bet like pretty much you should be betting like like
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: one percent of your entire bank roll basically is really
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: kind of the that's like the the number that the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: professionals always throw out there, like your your three unit
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: bet basically should be the should be a one percent.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: And then if you have bets you feel less strongly
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: about put a little bit less on those, and then
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: the really strong ones you go up to like five units.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: It would be like I guess you'd I guess on those,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: make them rare, but I guess on those, you'd be
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: going up to about five percent of your bank roll
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: on those. Oh no, not not five five percent would
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: be insane. Not five percent. I can't even do math anymore.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: What would it be? Two percent? Maybe? No, not to
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: one and a half percent something like that. I don't
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: know whatever it would be. I'll do the math right now.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I can't even do it. I'm so out of it
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: right now. It would be uh yeah, yeah, it would
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: be one one and two thirds percent whatever that comes
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: out to. But yes, you get what I'm saying. Yeah,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: because yeah, because it's on a range of one, two, three,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: four five. Yeah. All right, anyway, we're on the We're
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: on the Patriots here as a regular size bet plus
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: the points plus five or four and a half. Hopefully
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter the prop bets. I'm gonnaive about some props,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: and those I recommend playing it like the smallest amount
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: because you don't want because you're gonna have a number
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: of props. You don't want to overdo it with the props, right,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: So I make each one of those about a third
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: of the normal sized bet, so that three props basically
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: become one, like the basically the monetary equivalent of one
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: bet that I would make, you know. So if I
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: have five props, it becomes like one. You know, it
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: becomes one and two thirds bets basically, if that makes sense,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: which is what I did last year. But anyway, as
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: far as the side is concerned, really this is about
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: the just the perception. I do think Seattle is the
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: public side. Although we see fifty s percent of tickets
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on them. But everybody
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: saw what happened last right, and that's what the public
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: looks at. They're gonna look at the fact the Patriots
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: offense has been miserable. They look horrible in that game
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: in the AFC Championship. It was the worst game of
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: all time and shouldn't have even been played. That's the narrative. Meanwhile,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: and the Patriots beat a backup quarterback, and they beat
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: bad offenses in the first couple of games of the playoffs,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: and had the benefit of playing those dome teams outside
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: in the cold. I know, I've been saying that too,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: that's true, but I think this it's now the case
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: where they're being an undervalue team, man. And everybody was
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: also saying the NFC Championship was the de facto Super
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Bowl Seahawks rams whoever wins that game will just automatically
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Like that's basically been the narrative.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: And when you have a narrative like that out there,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: you want to fade it. That's been I've seen it
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: happen over and over again, man, and that's been the experience.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: When everybody is saying that this is the actual Super Bowl,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: that type of thing, you want to look towards the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: other team in the other side of that Super Bowl matchup.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're doing here. Both defenses in this
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: matchup are good, so I think that the defense can
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: kind of keep this game in check a bit, which
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: can hold it to, you know, in a range where
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: it's lower scoring as well. So I like that aspect
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: of this as well. And yeah, that's what we're gonna
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: do here, man. I think the line is just a
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: bit high as well. Like I said, I think if
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: those games last or two weeks ago didn't go the
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: way that they did, and we didn't see a high
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: scoring shoot out. Again, we didn't see the Seahawks put
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: up seventy something points in two games and the Patriots
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: only putting up fifty or whatever in three games. If
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: we didn't see that huge disparity there, I think this
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: line would be closer to three. So I do think
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be some value here we do have. Yeah,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks have the more experienced quarterback technically, but neither
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: quarterback is experience in a Super Bowl in this level
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: of games, so I don't think that's a huge advantage
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: to Seattle. And on the other hand, I think the
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Patriots have the coaching edge because they got variable who's
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: kind of been there, done that. He's coached more in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I believe the McDonald has when he was
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: with Tennessee. He's used to it all. And the Patriots
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: do still have their Super Bowl winning oc there who
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: was there for some of their Super bowls, Josh McDaniels.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: So I think the coaching edge does go to the Patriots.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: The coaching experience edge as well, which is not to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: be overlooked. So we're gonna be taking the points of
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. Like I said, I'm trying not to go
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: into too grade of detail with this. Also, there are
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: some really really good trends with the underdogs that I
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: pointed out where I believe the underdog I believe has
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: covered nine of the last ten Super Bowls or something
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: like that. It definitely four of the last are in
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: all of the last five, I think five and zero
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: in the last five, the underdog is covered. Although we've
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: had small ish underdogs in some of them, but all
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: of them except for the Bengals against the Rams one outright,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: and the Bengals probably shouldn't have covered, but let's not
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: go there because I'm still mad about it. But they
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: covered and didn't win in that one. And I had
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: the Rams half on the money line and half on
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the spread in that one. So it was kind of
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: a That Super Bowl was a bit of a wash
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: for me. I think it was a slight loss. But anyway, whatever,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: there are some good recent trends towards the underdogs and
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Let's just say that we're not in
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: like the We're not in the blowout era of football anymore,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: where he had these just massive blowouts up through like
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the nineties and whatever, we're not there anymore. Like, I
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: don't think this is one of those games, one of
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: those lop sided games. So and anyway, go watch my
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl video. You can see more analysis on that
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: if you want. I basically said the same thing though
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: as far as the total, I do agree with the under,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: but at forty five and a half, I don't know.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, forty five is kind of a key number,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: but forty eight where it opened, and forty seven are
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: also key numbers. It would have been a lot better
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: to get the under forty seven, and it seems like
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: the public has not been able to drive this number
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: back up very much. So it's not gonna be a
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: total I'm gonna want to play, but I do have
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: other ways of playing the low scoring nature of the
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: game which I'm gonna which I've talked about many times,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: but I'll reiterate it again. We have fifty seven percent
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, seventy percent of the cash
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: on the under. Though I don't disagree with an under.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see this game being low scoring,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: but again, you're not really getting the greatest number anymore
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: on that, And sometimes these Super Bowls will just go
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: over in the late portions of the game, so as
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: the teams get more comfortable and they start kind of
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: loosening up their offense and doing some crazier things. But
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: that leads me into the first prop that I gave out,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: which was no score in the first six minutes at
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: minus one forty. If you can find six and a
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: half minutes, you can get that price down. But the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: books just seem like they just don't offer it anymore
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: because they know that the sharps just pick that off
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: and win with it. And that's what I've been doing,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: like blindly, basically every year. I do that because the
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: vast majority of Super Bowls this hits, and the public
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: kind of doesn't like it because you usually have to
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: lay a little bit of a favorite price on it.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: But what happens is the Super Bowls, especially when the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: teams are unfamiliar with each other like this, and you
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: have good defenses. In this case, I think it's even
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: more likely because you have good defenses and you have
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks that just aren't that experience here, So I think
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: the both offenses are not gonna want to put the
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: load on the quarterbacks early, and they're not gonna want
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: to do anything stupid early, not take huge risks early.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: So that's the way a lot of these Super Bowls going,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: man is, it's a like a heavyweight fight and you're
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: feeling each other out for the first like several minutes
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: of the game. So looking for the game to be
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: low scoring early is the way to play these Super Bowls.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: This is the way that I do it. Under in
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: the first quarter was a good way of looking at it.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: But a lot of times you could get like a
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: double digit number on that And if you get under
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: the key number of ten, that was a pretty pretty
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: great approach as well. But you can't do it anymore,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: man Like, the number is like eight in the first
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: quarter in this super Bowl. So this is my preferred approach.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: Go with no score in the first six minutes to
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: just avoid you got to avoid like some fluky like turnover.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: But I feel like that's that's pretty much it. And
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: this this has continued to hit. Like I think the
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: last time this didn't hit might have been the Tampa
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Bay Kansas City super Was that what it was? No, Yeah,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: it was Tampa Bay Kansas City, right, I think it
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: was that Super Bowl. The last time this was a loser.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I remember. I'd have to go back and look, but
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: I seem to remember that being the case something like that.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: But the Patriots are actually really notorious for having very
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: low scoring early Super Bowls with Tom Brady, like they
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: hit this thing, I think, almost every single time in
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the Tom Brady era, and that may very well continue
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: here too. So I like that one quite a bit.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: If you can find a book that's given you the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: six and a half minutes, get a better price on it.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: I would do that because I don't think that extra
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: thirty seconds is gonna matter, and it's probably better to
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: get that price on it. But I couldn't find it.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: It's on a couple of different books, but it was
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: there on the m oh The one that I'm talking
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: about here, the no score, no score in the first
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: six minutes, was on DK. I'm pretty sure FD might
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: have it as well, but they were not offering the
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: six and a half. I couldn't find those in any
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: other places. There might be some off the shore locations
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: that might have more granular ones, which is where I
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: used to play some things, so that might be the
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: case there too, though. The one that I just talked
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: about I'm pretty sure DK is where it is. This
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: other one is on well m MGM. I think we
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: could probably say it. I don't know. Steve Merrill mentions them,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. This one, I'm pretty sure was.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Most of the books have this one, but they variant price,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: So the best price I found was minus one fifty five.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: Either team scores three consecutive times. I think this was
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: on m MGM. I'm pretty sure. I think a couple
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: of the other books might have had this low as well.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: And with the public coming in, the public likes to
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: plain no on this at plus money because this is
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: that mind fucked prop that I was talking about. I
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: know there are a lot of professionals out there that
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: are saying, don't blindly play this anymore because well, I
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: don't even get what they're reasoning is because they're like, oh, well,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: but I'm like why because the blowout era is over.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: But I'm like, yeah, but we're we're in the offense
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: era of football now, Like these are still two pretty
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: decent offenses here, man, believe it or not, even though
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: the defenses kind of take top billing with these teams,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: but the offenses are not bad. So yeah, so I
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: don't know what the deal is with that, but either
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: teams scoring three consecutive times, I heard I think it
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: was Steve Merrill who said this has only hit five
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: of the last ten years. But that doesn't seem right
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: because I I play this every single time, and I
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: don't I thought I thought that it had hit like
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: seven of the last ten. I don't have to go
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: back and look, but I know that generally it does
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: hit like seventy something percent of games and of super Bowls.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: And yeah, in the blowout era, it was I guess
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: a bit easier to get it. But we're in the
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: offense era of football. Man, I'm still it's a you know,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: it's a super Bowl. It's good weather, it's gonna be
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: in the sixties. It's in California, it's in San Francisco.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: You know, the weather isn't gonna really impact anything. The
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: offenses should be able to get something done in this game.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: Plus there is also the potential for turnovers that could
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: set up short fields and those That type of thing
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: does help this prop. When a team scores and then
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: they turn the other team over and they get another
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: score right away, that helps this prop too. But it
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: still happens much more often than it doesn't. I still
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: think this is a cheap price. I still think that
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: you can play this thing up to about minus one
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: seventy minus one eighty. I mean the fact, if it
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: hits like seventy something percent of the time or whatever,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: then that basically means that it should be lined at
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: like minus I don't know, I forget what the equivalent
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: of it is. I should know this off the top
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: of my head, but I think minus two hundred maybe
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: actually probably even greater than that. I'll tell you in
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: a second. Oh, it's calculator, sold I should stop eyeballing it, man, Yeah,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: imply probability calculator. Yeah, minus one seventy is only sixty
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: three percent, and historically it does happen more than that.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Minus one fifty five is sixty one less than sixty
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: one percent. Yeah, you'd actually you'd basically have to get
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: up to about minus two thirty or so, I would say,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more than that. Yeah, you'd have
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: to probably get up to about at least minus two
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: thirty five to actually have what I think is a
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: fair line on this. To be honest, I don't know,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: although I guess because the guys are saying that, well,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: it's only happened five of the last ten. Okay, you know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: it still should be it still should be a heavier
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: price than this. I still think it's a cheap price.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: The public never thinks that this will happen, but it
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: does way more often than it does. And so that's
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: the other game flow prop that I have. The beach books, well,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: they're mostly in Europe. Uh, yes, okay, interesting, all right, Well, yeah,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm in Massachusetts, so I mean, you know,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, we have several books that are available here,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: and of course those big ones are all right. And
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: then the other two props that I have, I gave
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: out two player props. I kind of like having one
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: on dude. Maybe I shouldn't, you know. Maybe I feel
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: like I'm forcing myself to do it now because I
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: did it last year and they both want Although we
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: kind of got lucky with the Worthy prop last year
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: because the game just got completely out of hand and
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: then the Eagles kind of just stopped going intense on
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: defense and the Chiefs just started going crazy on offense
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: late in the game. But Worthy got way over and
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: it looked like that prop was dead. We had worthy
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: over his completion or over his receptions, I think, but
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: we're still gonna do it. And again, the receptions and
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: completion props I think are more predictable, you know what
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, because you don't need like any flukes to
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: really happen. It's more of this like steady thing that's
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: gonna happen throughout the game. Although the first one that
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: I gave out is a little bit fluky because it's
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: a whole the backup running back from the Seattle Seahawks
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: over one and a half receptions. I found it at
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. I think it's a decent price
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: out there. And when I talked about this, basically I said,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: this was like a really under the radar one because
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: nobody knows who this guy is. He just started playing
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: when sharbon A went down. But he's basically the replacement
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: for Sharbona. And I think you're getting a little bit
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: of value on him because people still don't know his name,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: they don't know who he is. And if you look
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: at how this how Seattle runs their offense, Kenneth Walker
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: is the guy they're using to He's the bruiser, He's
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: the guy that is in there on the running place,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: but on the passing plays they usually switch it up
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: to the other back. That was sharbon A, but now
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be Hallaning. So I think he's gonna get
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the majority of the snaps on passing downs, which I
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: think is good. Especially I think they're gonna have a
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: lot of passing downs too because the Patriots. Both defenses
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: in this game are good at stopping the run, especially
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, So I think Seattle's gonna have to be
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: doing this repeatedly year. And for a quarterback like Sam Darnold,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: where they don't necessarily want him to be taking huge risks,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: he can be you know, checking it down, dumping it
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: off to receivers, you know, just in the flat, whatever
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: short passes. The beauty of this is basically that we
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: don't need Halana to even get any yards on this.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: We just need him to make two catches for zero,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Like I'm pretty sure that they could be zero yardage
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: catches and it would still count as receptions. So that's
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: what we're going with here. Halani, when he's played, he
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: has typically been able to haul these passes in. They're
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: very high percentage targets, so he's usually not gonna drop
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: them because he's gonna be catching them in space, like
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: in the flat. And if you look at how sharbon
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: A was used four of his last five games, he
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: had two plus receptions before he got injured, and then
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: neither guy did in the charbone injury game in San Francisco.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: That game was just out of hand anyway. I think
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle just probably started running the football and whatever. And
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: then in the most recent game, Hallani, did I believe
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: I have two? I believe he had two receptions. No,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: he had three. Excuse me. I had four targets and
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: three catches in the Rams game. So the guy in
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: this role for Seattle has hit this in five of
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: their last seven games, So I like it. We're gonna
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: do that one. And then the other one that I
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: gave out was Drake May over nineteen and a half
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: completions and minus one twenty. You can find twenty out
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: there at a pick them price as well. Don't know
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: if it's worth it to get it down a half
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: point for the minus one twenty. I don't know, man,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: I know, looking at what May has done in the playoffs,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: this looks like it's never gonna happen. Because I don't
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: think he's hit it. I think he might have hit
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: it in the first playoff game, but didn't hit it since.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: But that's the whole thing, man. Like you remember the
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Denver game, the weather just really came in and started
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: impacting everything, so they had to change the way they
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: were playing. That's not gonna happen here. It's also not
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: gonna be cold like it was in New England. So
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be able to have an offense
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be able to do this more. But the
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the reason why I like this is also that well
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: May was able to do this more often than not
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: this season. Like I believe he did this in ten
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: or eleven games. I think he had he had at
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: least nineteen I think in eleven games on the season.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: I know that's not nineteen and a half, but he
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: did have I believe he had. He did hit this number,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: I believe in nine of the games this season, so
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: it was still the majority of games. But the beauty
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: of this is who the defense is. That they're playing Seattle,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: And as I show, I showed you the stat muse graphics.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Although I pay for statmus so, I mean I somewhat
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: recommend it just because when you want to look something
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: up and have like a full sheet of data, it
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: does help. It's not really that it is a monthly thing,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it's that expensive. I don't know.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: It might be like ten a month or something. But
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: the beauty of this is is the way Seattle plays defense.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: There are zone defense, and that means there are holes
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: in the deepfense with they allow a lot of like short,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: high percentage pass plays. And I think that also what
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the Pacers are gonna want to do here, because I
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be able to run the football
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: terribly effectively against Seattle's defense. But Seattle does give up
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of passes to tight ends,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna help because again that's a high percentage target.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: But they also give up a ton of passes to
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: running backs. So I showed you the graphic. Seattle has
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: given up the most catches to running backs in the
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: NFL this season, and it's all these like low percentage
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: like checkdowns. So it doesn't kill Seattle because they're usually
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: not high yardage pass plays, you know, the checkdowns where
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: Seattle does stop them from gaining yards, but they still
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: allow to catch right. So Seattle basically plays the type
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: of defense where they're fine with allowing all these short
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: catches and then they hit you basically immediately. And that's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: another reason why I like this man, because we don't
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: care about the yardage here. We just need May to
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: be hitting a lot of like high percentage high you know,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: high percentage targets during the game, and I think Seattle's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: defense is very conducive to that. So that's what we're doing.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Those are the two props man, the two player props,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: and that's it. That's that's the card for today. So
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: those are all the super Bowl props. Once again, the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: college basketball plays UNC Green's barrow plus the points. Super Bowl.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: We have Patriots plus the points. We have Jilani over
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: one and a half receptions at a bit of minus money,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: though May over his completions nineteen and a half at
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: minus money. I know these are all minus money, so
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: we need to win three out of four of them
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: to cash this. So that does get a little bit,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: you know, it gets it feels sketchy, but the percentage
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: chance that these things happen I think is still worth it.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: No score in the first six minutes or if you
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: can find six and a half, that's what I would do,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: and then either team was sort of three consecutive times,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: I always play it, and then of course, like I did,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: I'm you know I mentioned some of the other ones.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: The length of shortest touchdown to be under one and
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: a half yards is another one of those mind fuck
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: ones where it happens way more often than it doesn't.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: But I added it to my car last year just
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: because of the tush push. I thought it made it
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: even more likely, and it did hit again last year.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: But that's another one where the public is like, that's crazy,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: like you're asking you, like you're telling me I need
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: exactly a one yard touchdown in this game, and it
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: seems like it wouldn't happen. But it actually happens more
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: often than it doesn't because of penalties in the end
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: zone that set up teams at the one yard line.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: So it does happen more often than it doesn't. So
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: there is that one as well. There is another one
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: that I haven't really talked about that is a lot
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: of professionals are on will there be a score in
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: the final two minutes of the first half which is
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: that like I think it's probably at about minus two
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: hundred or something like that. It might be a little
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: bit less than that, but that's another one with the public.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: They don't like to lay this minus money on it,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: and they think that's kind of ridiculous, like like that
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: it's not that high of a chance that that'll happen.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: But that's wrong. It happened way more often than it
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't because that's just the way the game flows. Like
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: the team and has the ball at the end of
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: the half, they're really really trying to score and time
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: managed clock managed to try to get that score at
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: the end of the half, even if it means kicking
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: a field goal. And we have two good kickers in
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: this game too, and decent weather conditions, So you got
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: Myers into Bora Goless Aurora Boragless. They're both good kickers, man,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: So that helps that prop as well, the fact that
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: a field goal can get you that prop and you
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: may very well see a long field goal attempt at
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: the end of the first half, and with these kickers,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: they can get that thing done if that's what happens,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: So that is a decent prop as well, even tho
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: they have to lay minus money on it. There is
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: a reason for it. So I figured I would shout
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: that one out as well, and I think that's it.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: You go watch my Super Bowl special. I talked about
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: other props. I talked about the novelty props. I can
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: tell you that I've heard some professionals that handicap the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Gatoray color and they're going with yellow slash green, and
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: it needs to be all of that combined in one option,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: yellow green. But I don't I don't know why. I
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: don't know what they're thinking is behind that. Because I
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: had said blue, because I think the Patriots have a
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: decent chance to win, and I think if they do win,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: they're gonna replicate what they did in their last Super
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: Bowl win and the one where they beat Seattle. Both
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: of those Gatoray colors were blue. So that's what I
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: That was my analysis of it. I don't know where
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: the yellow green is really coming from, although I did
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: say that if Seattle wins, I think they may be
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: using yellow green though, So maybe that's what the theory
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: is there. Maybe it's kind of a way to diversify
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: because I've heard the guy there are guys who like
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: the Patriots in the game, and they're playing like Drake
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: May on MVP basically as their way of playing the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: the money line on it, because I've mentioned the money
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: line market usually gets swung towards the underdog because the
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: public loves to play money line underdogs because they like
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: to just bet a little to win a lot, even
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: if they're fading that team on the spread. So usually
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: you actually get a decent price on the money line
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: favorite in the Super Bowl. But if you like the
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: money line underdog, you can play Drake May to win
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: the MVP at like plus two forty or so, which
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: is way better than playing the Patriots at like plus
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: one ninety whatever. So that is a way because probably
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: the quarterback's gonna get it. More often than not, the
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: quarterback does get it, does get the MVP. So that's
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: another way of playing the money line of the team
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: that you think is gonna win. But in this case,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I think some of these guys might be using the
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: yellow green gatorade as a way to play the Seahawks
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: money line, and maybe they're doing that to diversify again
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: because some of those same guys have made to win MVP.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Have the Patriots on the spread, but it might be
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: a way to diversify, and you do want to diversify,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: So that's the other thing, Like you don't want to
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: find like seven different ways of playing one thing and
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: play all of them, you know what I mean, Like
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: you don't want to go like no score first six
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: minutes and under in the first quarter and under in
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: the first have, you know, all those things and just
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: unload on every single one of those, you know what
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, because they're all kind of the same thing,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: and if one thing goes wrong, it could take all
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: those things out. So you want to kind of diversifying
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: with your props. I think you kind of want to
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: play ones that could hit regardless of the score of
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: the game. So I think that's what we're doing here
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: as well with my player props here. I don't think
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: they really have much of a bearing on who wins
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: and who covers the game and whatever, so and the
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: game flow of props as well don't really, So that's
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: that's that's the way to diversify it as well. Last
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: year they all hit, everything went well, we went five
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: and ohero on the props last year. Don't expect that
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: to happen again, But yeah, we'll see what happens. I
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: don't know if I have anything else I thought that was.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I thought there was one other thing.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, for the MVP. Don't play a running back
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: to win MVP. The running backs almost never win it.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: I guess because they're not flashy enough. They're like grinders.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, usually it's the quarterback. But if it's not
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: the quarterback, it'll probably be either a wide receiver or
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: a linebacker. So that's another way to look at the
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: the MVP market. Although in this case, because it's two
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: you know, first time quarterbacks in the Super Bowl or whatever,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: unless the winning quarterback just really doesn't have a good performance,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: it still manages to win the game. I think they're
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: gonna give it to the winning quarterback. I mean, we
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: saw like Tom Brady and his first Super Bowl win.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he got it. And his stats were
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: atrocious in that game, and I think he still got it.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: So I'm pretty sure. So, you know, keep an eye
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: off for stuff like that that's gonna do it. I think, man, Eric,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: not Eric, excuse me, definitely not Eric. What's up man?
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: You like the blue Gatorade? Yeah, I mean I think
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: blue Gatorade is a decent look in that one, but
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not really a Gatorade handicapper though, but
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: I could tell you that red has has not occurred
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: since before the year two thousand and recently purple has
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: taken precedence. But I don't know. This particular super Bowl
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: seems like it's not gonna wind up being purple and
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: orange has been big for the last like two decades,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: but orange has kind of fizzled out and hasn't made
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: that much of an appearance recently, So I don't know.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: And in the history of the Patriots, it's always been
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: no gator it at all. Blue or clear is what
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: the Patriots have used in like all of their Super Bowls,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: you know, since their era started. So purple was better
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: odds for a no than others. Oh, I wasn't looking.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen the yes no. I was just looking
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: at the the multi prop you know, on its own.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean purple purple was like the Chiefs
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: thing for some reason. The Chiefs used purple for multiple
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: their Super Bowls. But I don't think it's gonna be
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: purple in this one. That's gonna do it. Let's get
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: some winslet's the joya, the festivities. Oh and I usually
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: talk about, like, you know, super Bowl food as well.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I usually talk about that too, but
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: I always kind of just say the same thing, man,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: I mean for Super Bowl parties. For snack food, I mean,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: you want something that's gonna be something you can carry
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: around with like a plate basically, and it's not gonna
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: be that much of a mess and you don't have
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: to worry about it too much, so you know what
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: I mean. So wings, and probably just don't overdo the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: sauce on the wings. Wings are an obvious one. Pizza
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: probably works fine as long as it's not some crazy
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: messy pizza. One more, the slices like compact enough that
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: you can carry it around, maybe like some smaller pizza
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: party pizza basically, you know those ones that are the
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: big squares that are cut into like rectangles. Can carry
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: those around. Not a bad idea. I know a lot
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: of people like nachos. I don't know about the nachos.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. For some reason, I don't
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: think they're that like portable when you're walking around, So
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't love the nacho idea though
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I like nachos, but I don't know about you know
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: that necessarily unless you want to just hang out like
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: around the snack table for a while and you know,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: and hang out and eat them there, you know, I
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: don't know, maybe maybe some other like meats, some like
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: small sausages. Many burgers like sliders and mini hot dogs
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: are actually not a bad idea. You can carry those
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: things around, even though it seems like more of a
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: summer like cookout type of food. But yeah, hell yeah, drumsticks,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: add your own sauce. Yeah, nachos yeah, they're just not
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: portable enough. Sliders are pretty portable. Like, I don't think
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: that's a bad idea at all. Burger sliders man, or
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: like if you know, maybe you have not even sliders,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: but like you can have like some burgers that are
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: like somewhat small and compact. You can still carry those
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: things around. Probably, I don't know, but sliders I think
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: is a decent idea. Then you don't overdo it because
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: if you want to try, you know me, I like
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: to try like basically everything that's on like a spread,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: Like I want to try at least one of everything,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: just so I have the full picture, the full mix
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: of everything. Uh So having you know, a slider instead
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: of a full sized burger helps me do that without
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: overdoing it, you know. And then you know, I mean,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: and then of course, like beer is probably the obvious
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: uh drink of choice, although as he now, sober Man,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I am doing the non alcoholic beers now and I
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: do have a few of the I'll probably have a
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: few of those today. But yeah, the full experience, yes, correct,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I guess that's gonna do it. I always
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: love talking about food, but then I wind up taking
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: you on the Boston Food tour. That's not what I
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: want to do here, just talking about Super Bowl foods.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I know, it's all like typical Super Bowl food stuff,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: you know what. Also for the wings, you know what,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: I would almost maybe even uh prefer boneless because there's
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: less a less of a met like you don't, you know,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: like there are no bones that get left behind, you
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, like bone Obviously the bone in
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: wings have more flavor and whatever. But for a party
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: food or you're gonna be carrying it around and whatever,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: the boneless wings might even make more sense because then
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: you just devour that thing. You don't really have to
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: worry about anything. You just gotta throw your well, I
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: guess either way, you just got to throw the plate away,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: even with the bones, I guess it doesn't matter that much.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: But but also with the bones, you know you're kind
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: of doing I don't know, you kind of got a
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: two hand. The thing boneless might make it a little
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: bit easier, I don't know. Or like maybe you go
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: like chicken fingers I don't know, and maybe with some
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: some fries in the mix there or something. All right, Uh,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: you know, that's I think that's gonna do it. I guess,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: you know, and then you know the people will have it.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: You know. Some of those like side dishes on the
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: table too. I don't know how well those work out.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: They're like, oh, I'm gonna put some mac and cheese
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: on my plate and walk around with it. I don't know,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: a potato salad. I don't know. I like those things,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if I'm gonna do that, like
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: walking around with something like that. All right, that's gonna
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. Enjoy all the games and the food
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: and the parties and whatever. I might be a little
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: bit snowed in up here. I know, we got a
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: decent amount of snow yesterday up here. I think it's
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: done now, but we'll see, Like how plowed it is
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: out there. Cheese cubes I like, I mean, I like it.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: I like cheese. If you do that, you probably have
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: to have some like meat, like some cold cut meat
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: on like sticks and whatever, you know what I mean,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: to go with it, like some have like ham cubes
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: with it, Pepperoni cubes with it. That's not too bad.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: My mom used to make I don't know if she
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: would still do it, but she used to make calzones
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: that were like she made her own calzones with like
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: a breadmaker, and those cal zones she made like pepperoni
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: and cheese, ham and cheese you cut and chicken. I
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: think she made a chicken one at some point too.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: You cut those things up and they're in small enough
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: pieces that they're pretty Those pieces of calzone are pretty transportable,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, So those are pretty good. A
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: dollar on the octopus, you're gonna get whatever it is,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: eighty bucks out of it. The books, they love the
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: people to play. They want the people to play the
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: octopus man because I think Jalen hurts actually did it once, right,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: so everybody loves the octopus now, But I don't think
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: it's gonna happen, man, very very unlikely to happen. You
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: don't get good enough odds on it. Sixty five. I
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: think it's like thirty here if that maybe twenties meatballs, yeah,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: I mean meatballs, depending on how drenched they are in
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: sauce or whatever. Yeah. Yeah, I was gonna say the
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: smokies like mini like sausages basically, yeah, yeah, on like
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: a stick. Those are easy to eat, carry around, yeah,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: like on like toothpicks. Yeah, yeah, whatever, as long as
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: the meatball isn't, you know, dripping sauce all over the place. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: for sure. All right, man, that's that's gonna do it.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: And to go along with the nacho nacho chip theme,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: you could have like a buffalo chicken dip as well,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: but that kind of gets into the same problem as
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: the nachos, where it's like kind of a messy thing
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: and you kind of have to just eat it while
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: you're standing around the table and then and not walk
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: around with it. But I like buffalo chicken dip, but
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: maybe not for a portable party snack. There that's gonna
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: do it, man. And you gotta have chips out though,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Like you know, have some chips around. That's kind of
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: a standard. You just munch on those. That's gonna do it.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what my favorite chip is, really,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what. What would I say is it's
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: gotta be like I don't know, like those like jalapeno,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: like kettle cooked chips. That's what I like. That type
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: of thing. It's got crunched to it and it's a
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: little bit spicy. All right, I'm gonna get out of here.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Thanks everybody, Happy super Bowl sun Oh,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: I forgot to take my screen down to Happy super
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday. Let's get some wins here, even though the
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: fan base is going to be insufferable if the Patriots
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: actually win, I don't know if I want to deal
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: with it, but let's get it done man. Peace