Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Jobs Day, Markets, And Hiring (Podcast)

Transcript

Jobs Day, Markets, And Hiring (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
0:06
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
0:11
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We are looking at
0:22
Speaker 1: this market. Continue to sell off here. But I want
0:24
Speaker 1: to get back to the jobs data again. I think
0:27
Speaker 1: it was pretty good. I'm sticking with it was pretty good,
0:29
Speaker 1: and maybe even better than pretty good. But let's talk
0:31
Speaker 1: to somebody who does this stuff for living. Julia Pollock,
0:33
Speaker 1: Chief economists for Zip Recruiter. Julia A give us your
0:37
Speaker 1: take on the job's number today and then be maybe
0:40
Speaker 1: even more importantly what you're seeing in your business as
0:43
Speaker 1: Zip recruiter. This was a most encouraging report, like the
0:48
Speaker 1: Goldilocks of jobs reports, just great broad games, huge games.
0:54
Speaker 1: I mean the twelve months average job game now the
0:57
Speaker 1: net growth and jobs each months and five D forty
1:00
Speaker 1: five thousands that is huge. Is three times the average
1:04
Speaker 1: job beating twenty and twenty nineteen. So big, big, big numbers.
1:08
Speaker 1: Broad growth across the economy and then exactly what the
1:11
Speaker 1: FED wants to see, you know, the boil coming off
1:14
Speaker 1: wage growth, a little bit slight cooling there. Yeah, I
1:18
Speaker 1: was gonna ask, where does this put us on sort
1:21
Speaker 1: of the soft landing narrative when it comes to the
1:24
Speaker 1: economy and the Fed. So in twenty nineteen, we saw
1:28
Speaker 1: that we could get rapid wage growth and real rapid
1:31
Speaker 1: job growth and real wage growth without inflation. And what
1:35
Speaker 1: we and the reason we could was because labor force
1:38
Speaker 1: participation was going up. What we want to see now
1:41
Speaker 1: is labor force participation rising and recovering, and that's what
1:44
Speaker 1: this report shows is happening. We got a good solid
1:47
Speaker 1: recovery among prime age workers and among workers over the
1:51
Speaker 1: age of fifty five. Laborce percipation is fully recovered among
1:55
Speaker 1: teens and among prime age workers almost um and it's
1:59
Speaker 1: still down, you know, three point five percentage points among
2:01
Speaker 1: older workers, but it is trending in the right direction.
2:04
Speaker 1: Some of those workers are unretiring and coming back. And
2:06
Speaker 1: then of course immigration is finally resuming as well. You know,
2:10
Speaker 1: there has been a huge backlog of legal immigrants waiting
2:13
Speaker 1: for their visas. UM staffing agencies that specialized in finding
2:17
Speaker 1: nurses from abroad, for example, have long, long, long lists
2:20
Speaker 1: of candidates who are lined up with the mortar waiting
2:23
Speaker 1: to come in, waiting for those those documents. And finally
2:26
Speaker 1: we're seeing that pick up as well. So the labor
2:29
Speaker 1: constraints that have been holding back job growth and that
2:32
Speaker 1: has been fueling this massive wage growth and possibly inflationary
2:37
Speaker 1: wage growth UM looks like it is easing. We're seeing
2:41
Speaker 1: labor force patization recovering. That is really great news for employers.
2:44
Speaker 1: It's also good news for the fits. Yeah, I agree
2:47
Speaker 1: that the numbers look pretty solid to me. UM, We're
2:50
Speaker 1: starting to see a couple of companies, most notably today
2:53
Speaker 1: Tesla talking about you know, maybe laying off some people,
2:56
Speaker 1: you know, pausing hiring. We're hearing that from some other
2:58
Speaker 1: tech companies. What do you make from that? I mean you,
3:00
Speaker 1: you guys are a recruiter. You are absolutely on the
3:02
Speaker 1: front lines of day to day hiring. What do you
3:05
Speaker 1: make of some of those new stories? Well, this is
3:07
Speaker 1: what's so interesting. So everyone reads about tech layoffs, yet
3:12
Speaker 1: job postings overall are growing and growing fastest in the
3:15
Speaker 1: tech center in sector. So uh tech and I T
3:18
Speaker 1: jobs are soaring in our marketplace. And what you hear
3:23
Speaker 1: right now is the sound of talent acquisition teams and
3:27
Speaker 1: HR departments rapidly looking up workers at Tesla on LinkedIn
3:32
Speaker 1: and reaching out to them to recruit them. Uh So,
3:35
Speaker 1: anytime a tech worker is laid off, there are lots
3:38
Speaker 1: and other companies, not just in the tech sector. Uh
3:41
Speaker 1: you know, in retail, in government departments, all of the place.
3:44
Speaker 1: Everyone now needs to collect the store and analyze data.
3:47
Speaker 1: Everyone has a website, everyone has an app. There tech
3:50
Speaker 1: jobs throughout the economy. Demand for those workers and those
3:53
Speaker 1: skills is white hot, and it remains so. But just
3:56
Speaker 1: sort of falling up on the point that Paul reis
3:58
Speaker 1: that we did just this week. I feel like just
4:00
Speaker 1: a barrage of news when you think about Tesla today,
4:03
Speaker 1: but you also had Gemini and coin Base yesterday. A
4:06
Speaker 1: lot of this is concentrated in the crypto and the
4:08
Speaker 1: tech industry, it seems like. But do you think that,
4:11
Speaker 1: I mean, that is some sort of uh, I don't know,
4:14
Speaker 1: foreshadowing of what's to come with the labor market being
4:17
Speaker 1: that it is so hot, and I mean we've heard
4:19
Speaker 1: from Powell himself that the unemployment rate is probably unsustainably
4:23
Speaker 1: low right now, so the unemployent rate will probably trend
4:29
Speaker 1: even lower for a while. Um. Yeah. Economic models show
4:34
Speaker 1: that if you were to bring inflation all the way
4:37
Speaker 1: down to two percent right now, yes, that would require
4:39
Speaker 1: pushing unemployment all the way to six percent, right So
4:41
Speaker 1: that that's what's in the back of people's minds that
4:44
Speaker 1: the set has said it's going to cut inflation, and
4:47
Speaker 1: what does that mean? That would mean cooling demand uh somewhat, um,
4:53
Speaker 1: unless labor force participation recovers really rapidly, and supply chain
4:59
Speaker 1: issues ease, and all of these other unforeseen factors that
5:04
Speaker 1: that have contributed to this crisis kind of uh magically
5:09
Speaker 1: miraculously uh subside. So I think that's what everyone's hoping,
5:14
Speaker 1: that that the you know, the sort of adiosyncratic issues
5:19
Speaker 1: that led to massive oil price spikes uh and food
5:25
Speaker 1: price spikes, that some of those will will ease in
5:27
Speaker 1: the coming months, uh, and then that uh labor force
5:31
Speaker 1: participation recovering will sort of cool the pressures in leisure,
5:36
Speaker 1: hospitality and warehousing and transportation UM and and this service sector.
5:41
Speaker 1: So joy I mean on that labor force participation rate
5:43
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left it's sixty two point three percent.
5:46
Speaker 1: Where would you like to see that? I mean, I
5:49
Speaker 1: would like to see that go all the way back
5:50
Speaker 1: up to where it was before UM and and higher
5:53
Speaker 1: or what we saw and where is that sixty s
5:57
Speaker 1: four percent? I believe um and UH we we could
6:01
Speaker 1: actually what we saw amazingly in nine was that conditions
6:06
Speaker 1: were right for people to find work. More people entered
6:09
Speaker 1: the lave market and UH and so we know that
6:14
Speaker 1: there is actually more UH fuel in the tank in
6:17
Speaker 1: the lave market. Right, Good stuff, all right, Julia, thank
6:20
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Love getting your perspective there.
6:22
Speaker 1: Julia Pollock, chief economist at Zip Recruiter. And I think
6:26
Speaker 1: it's like when I talk to my kids are in
6:27
Speaker 1: their twenties, Zipp Recruiters like a big go to in
6:30
Speaker 1: addition to Lincoln, they talk about Zipp Recruiter all the time.
6:33
Speaker 1: They also have a full push on advertising. I feel
6:35
Speaker 1: like I hear them a lot on podcasts right now.
6:41
Speaker 1: And we're checking with David Beat's managing principal and senior
6:44
Speaker 1: portfolio strategist at the UH. I guess I don't know
6:47
Speaker 1: a Gladstone Bank, Peacack Private Wealth Management. David what's the
6:50
Speaker 1: name of your firm to stay? I you know I
6:51
Speaker 1: grew up it was Pepack Gladstone Bank. What are you
6:54
Speaker 1: calling it these days? So that's the parent company, p
6:56
Speaker 1: Pack Gladstone Bank, and we're in the pepack um kind
7:00
Speaker 1: of private wealth management decision. Alright, good stuff. All I
7:04
Speaker 1: know is David Dietz has been covering these markets for
7:06
Speaker 1: a long time, folks, so when he speaks, he comes
7:09
Speaker 1: with a lot of perspective. So day, we had some
7:11
Speaker 1: good jobs data out today. Um, the economy seems to
7:15
Speaker 1: be in pretty good shape. How are you guys thinking
7:17
Speaker 1: about things? So the number one concern right now is
7:22
Speaker 1: this stagflation concern, the concern that inflation continues to be
7:26
Speaker 1: a problem, which keeps to Fed vigorously hiking rates, yet
7:30
Speaker 1: the economy is starting to cool. So, you know, the
7:33
Speaker 1: job's report today, I thought it as a bit mixed.
7:36
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the good news from an economic
7:38
Speaker 1: point of view is we got more jobs than expected,
7:41
Speaker 1: although they did reduce March and April. The problem is
7:43
Speaker 1: it's not enough for the Fed to say, gee, maybe
7:46
Speaker 1: we'll be taking a pause in our rate hikes come September. Um,
7:50
Speaker 1: you know, the good news I suppose was that the
7:53
Speaker 1: hourly wage, uh conversation increases. We're a little bit better
7:59
Speaker 1: than expected. It was three tenths of a percent. But still,
8:02
Speaker 1: you know you multiple times twelve you get three point
8:04
Speaker 1: six percent this country, this fed I don't think we'll
8:08
Speaker 1: be satisfied with three point six percent. Inflation is the
8:10
Speaker 1: end target. And you brought up seculation, and I want
8:13
Speaker 1: to stay there because it seems like it's a very
8:15
Speaker 1: loaded term. And when I talk to people about sex fleation,
8:18
Speaker 1: they always point to the labor market and tell me,
8:20
Speaker 1: you know you you do, you don't have sex flation.
8:23
Speaker 1: When the unemployment rate is at three point six per cent,
8:26
Speaker 1: do you agree with that? Well, I mean that is
8:29
Speaker 1: a very good number historically, that's full employment. Um, so
8:34
Speaker 1: you know, from the inflation perspective that suggested it's still
8:37
Speaker 1: going to be upward pressure on wages. But here's the
8:39
Speaker 1: here's the problem. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.
8:44
Speaker 1: People only companies only higher after the business conditions are good.
8:48
Speaker 1: And now we've just heard from three blue chips this week.
8:51
Speaker 1: You've got JP Morgan in the form of Jamie Diamond,
8:54
Speaker 1: You've got Microsoft, You've got Test flow, with Elon Musk
8:57
Speaker 1: suggesting that business conditions are the weekend, that there are
9:01
Speaker 1: reasons for concern. So you're looking forward here and and
9:05
Speaker 1: things don't look so good, and you know, of course
9:07
Speaker 1: a stock market investors need to look forward, all right, David,
9:10
Speaker 1: The SNP is beginning June where it started in May.
9:13
Speaker 1: I mean I could have just stayed on the North
9:14
Speaker 1: and South course Canoe Brook for the entire month of
9:17
Speaker 1: May and not missed a darned thing. What do we
9:19
Speaker 1: do from here? What are you telling your clients? So
9:22
Speaker 1: you can't time this market? And we do know. The
9:25
Speaker 1: reason that we have such a good week last week
9:27
Speaker 1: was there was some suggestions from Jerome Powell that the
9:30
Speaker 1: economy does matter to him, it's not just about inflation.
9:33
Speaker 1: And we had a great week last week, the best
9:35
Speaker 1: week since two thousand twenty this month and this week
9:38
Speaker 1: has has been cooler. So we say stay in the game,
9:41
Speaker 1: don't try and time it, but do shade into areas
9:45
Speaker 1: that certainly are cheaper. Um that for us is smaller companies.
9:50
Speaker 1: Small cap value was a no brainer. Has done better
9:53
Speaker 1: than the market this year, but now small cap growth
9:56
Speaker 1: has come down cheaper than the overall market cheaper than
10:00
Speaker 1: historically is the case, and so that's an area to
10:03
Speaker 1: look at. We still like energy. We think that there's
10:06
Speaker 1: gonna be a lack of new production, but the demand
10:08
Speaker 1: of course continue strong. Financials. You've got the Bank of
10:11
Speaker 1: American JP Morgan both down. Historically they do better when
10:15
Speaker 1: interstrates move up. So those are some areas to look at.
10:19
Speaker 1: And I want to get your thoughts on something else
10:20
Speaker 1: that happened this week because Wednesday, June one, it was
10:23
Speaker 1: the official start of quantitative tightening. So the first actual
10:29
Speaker 1: quantitative tightening will happen on June fifteenth, that's when fifteen
10:32
Speaker 1: billion dollars of treasury securities are actually set to mature.
10:35
Speaker 1: But still June first an important symbolic date. What do
10:38
Speaker 1: you expect to happen? Because there's not much of a
10:41
Speaker 1: blueprint here for how quantitative quantitative tightening plays out in
10:45
Speaker 1: the market. Uh, is this whole priced energy? You think
10:48
Speaker 1: there's more volatility to come, Well, we're certain there's gonna
10:53
Speaker 1: be more volatility, so you know, having uh, having the
10:58
Speaker 1: monetary tightening and taking ultimately about two trillion of bonds
11:02
Speaker 1: off the Federal Reserve balance sheet and braining liquidity that's
11:05
Speaker 1: the negative. And then there's the question, of course, to
11:07
Speaker 1: what extense priced in we're suggesting as priced in and
11:10
Speaker 1: some of the smaller companies. But you know, my concern
11:13
Speaker 1: that people are talking about it is though it's gonna
11:15
Speaker 1: be on autopilot every single month for the next two
11:18
Speaker 1: to three years. That's just not the case. I think
11:21
Speaker 1: this FED will be data dependent even about those objectives.
11:25
Speaker 1: And if there is some sign that they're weakening, that
11:27
Speaker 1: we're gonna go into a hard landing, I think they
11:29
Speaker 1: can put that on pause as well. So, just like
11:32
Speaker 1: the the federal reserve rate hikes, even the quantitative tightening
11:37
Speaker 1: is subject to debate. I think every month, Hey, David,
11:41
Speaker 1: you know, I'm looking at the uh I end go
11:45
Speaker 1: function on the bloomber Truma gives me all these great
11:47
Speaker 1: in the see data, and I'm looking index data, and
11:49
Speaker 1: I'm looking at total corporate bond returns in the US
11:53
Speaker 1: year to day. It's down like twelve or something. I mean,
11:56
Speaker 1: it's just brutal in the bond market. Is now the
11:59
Speaker 1: time to you know, kind of lean into the bottom market,
12:02
Speaker 1: as you kids say, you we're getting more constructive on
12:05
Speaker 1: the bondo market. I mean when you look at history,
12:08
Speaker 1: you down twelve and let's say the first four months.
12:11
Speaker 1: If you analyze that, you're gonna be down what close
12:14
Speaker 1: to three times that for the full year thirty six percent.
12:17
Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. So we think at some point
12:20
Speaker 1: that kind of levels out here. Obviously you're getting more
12:22
Speaker 1: income now than you did at the start of the year,
12:25
Speaker 1: and of course, to some extent is due to a
12:27
Speaker 1: little um some concern over credit quality starting to creep in.
12:31
Speaker 1: Most of it has been concerned about with you know,
12:33
Speaker 1: higher benchmark rates and the treasuries um and inflation so forth.
12:38
Speaker 1: We don't think that that's just going to continue in
12:40
Speaker 1: a straight line. So we would be looking again to
12:43
Speaker 1: hold on to some high quality fixed income. And of
12:47
Speaker 1: course most people are worried about the stock market. If
12:49
Speaker 1: the stock market really starts to weekend, where are people
12:52
Speaker 1: going to go now with the higher income, I would
12:54
Speaker 1: suggest it would go back into bonds, including corporate bonds.
12:57
Speaker 1: And so you still need that in order to head
13:00
Speaker 1: your overall portfolio for your long time term goals. And
13:03
Speaker 1: I'm happy you went to bonds because that's what I
13:04
Speaker 1: want to ask about sort of the thinking about portfolio
13:08
Speaker 1: allocation bonds versus equities. I was looking at junk yields
13:12
Speaker 1: for example, They're close to seven percent. Uh, that seems
13:16
Speaker 1: pretty high. It was closer to eight percent about a
13:18
Speaker 1: month ago, but still pretty high. You compare that to
13:20
Speaker 1: equity returns. How are you thinking about sizing up those
13:23
Speaker 1: two asset classes. Well, certainly junk bonds are more attractive
13:29
Speaker 1: from a yield perspective than to start of the year.
13:32
Speaker 1: I do think it reflects some concerns that we have
13:35
Speaker 1: a hard landing, that there's the risk of recession that's increased,
13:40
Speaker 1: and you know, the question is is the compensation enough
13:43
Speaker 1: to offset that increased risks? So, you know, I think
13:47
Speaker 1: it goes back to your overall portfolio. To the extent
13:49
Speaker 1: you're leaning towards stocks, we take a light approach to
13:54
Speaker 1: junk bonds because you already got a lot of risk
13:55
Speaker 1: in your portfolio altility due to the stocks, and they
13:58
Speaker 1: may also give you a better at tack outcome. To
14:00
Speaker 1: the extent you want to hedge recession risk in stock
14:04
Speaker 1: market volatility, we would stick with the high quality bonds
14:07
Speaker 1: because those are the bonds of people are gonna run to.
14:09
Speaker 1: Wouldn't um again go back to two thousand, two thousand nine,
14:15
Speaker 1: junk bonds did not hedge equity risk. And although we're
14:19
Speaker 1: not predicting anything like deaths going forward, if it does happen,
14:23
Speaker 1: you're not gonna want the junk bonds, all right, David,
14:25
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. David Diet's managing
14:27
Speaker 1: principal and senior portfolio strategist at Pepeck Private Wealth Management.
14:32
Speaker 1: Appreciate get David's perspective on these markets. Let's check in
14:38
Speaker 1: with our next guest right here, Jonathan Hurdle. You call
14:41
Speaker 1: him John Hurdle, Executive Chairman Hurdle, Callahan and Company. Hey, John,
14:45
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. You know, I
14:47
Speaker 1: guess the economic discussion that certainly we've been having here
14:50
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Radio TV over the last several weeks, if
14:53
Speaker 1: not longer, is some kinds of the stagflation recession. Um,
14:58
Speaker 1: we've gotten some pretty good consumer eight to recently we
15:00
Speaker 1: had a pretty darn solid jobs number today. How how
15:04
Speaker 1: do you think about the economic outlook is as you
15:06
Speaker 1: guys think about your portfolios. Well, it's nice to hear
15:10
Speaker 1: your voice again, Paul, and thank you for having me on.
15:12
Speaker 1: I think economic forecasting. John Kenneth Galbreath said that it's
15:16
Speaker 1: the main purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology
15:20
Speaker 1: look good by comparison. So you know, there's a lot
15:24
Speaker 1: of lines about that, and it's so accurate and that's
15:26
Speaker 1: why there's so many humorous lines. Another one is if
15:28
Speaker 1: you you know, got a every economists in American lined
15:31
Speaker 1: them up head to put, that wouldn't reach a conclusion.
15:33
Speaker 1: You know, so it's clear that the economy is weaker
15:36
Speaker 1: than it was. Whether we're going into a recession or not.
15:40
Speaker 1: Only time will tell. It's really actually impossible to predict
15:43
Speaker 1: number one and number two. It's not binary. So a
15:46
Speaker 1: recession is one thing. How bad is a recession? You know,
15:50
Speaker 1: a soft landing. When I was in the service, we
15:52
Speaker 1: used to talk about any landing you could walk away
15:54
Speaker 1: from was a successful one. So is it perfect? No,
15:58
Speaker 1: But given the work, you know, interest rates in the world,
16:01
Speaker 1: will stock still be attractive if earnings are still okay?
16:06
Speaker 1: You know, the aggregate economy is weaker, but great companies
16:09
Speaker 1: continue to succeed, and relative to bonds, the stock market
16:13
Speaker 1: still looks attractive. So you know, we think it's impossible
16:16
Speaker 1: to predict, and we don't spend a lot of time
16:18
Speaker 1: trying to predict that economic scenarios going forward. At what
16:22
Speaker 1: point would bonds become attractive Again, Well, let's uh, you know,
16:27
Speaker 1: investor by investor, But right now, clearly the tenure treasury
16:30
Speaker 1: is still substantially negative, Katie. Um, if we take away inflation,
16:35
Speaker 1: we're really losing purchasing power every day, and so the
16:39
Speaker 1: interest rates have risen a little bit because so has inflation.
16:42
Speaker 1: So the net effect is that the real return on
16:45
Speaker 1: bonds is still unattractive. That doesn't mean you shouldn't own
16:49
Speaker 1: some short term fixed things as just an insurance policy
16:52
Speaker 1: against volatility and an opportunity some dry powder in case
16:56
Speaker 1: you want to spend some money in the market. Yeah, Jonathan,
17:00
Speaker 1: you did. You mentioned your service. You served in the the
17:02
Speaker 1: United States Marine Corps two. So I'm guessing, uh, you're
17:07
Speaker 1: taking a particular interest in what's happening in Ukraine. But
17:10
Speaker 1: from economic markets perspective, from a fund of you know,
17:15
Speaker 1: flow of goods and services perspective, from an inflation perspective,
17:19
Speaker 1: how do you kind of incorporate that uncertainty, uh into
17:23
Speaker 1: your outlook? Well, these exogenous events are always unpredictable, and
17:29
Speaker 1: so when you're looking at markets. You have to. You
17:32
Speaker 1: can't have a market that's priced to perfection, which we
17:35
Speaker 1: sort of did coming into the year. In other words,
17:37
Speaker 1: the market wasn't that high relative to bonds. But this
17:41
Speaker 1: sort of scenario was that, you know, we're changing the
17:43
Speaker 1: world with secular growth companies, great tech companies. Interestmates are
17:47
Speaker 1: going to remain low, so we can have aggressive federal
17:51
Speaker 1: spending because if things keep going just as well as
17:53
Speaker 1: they've been going, we can afford it. So there's this
17:56
Speaker 1: a notion that is, as long as everything goes long
18:00
Speaker 1: perfectly smoothly, will be fine. Well, when you start to
18:04
Speaker 1: add more things that have to go on perfectly smoothly,
18:07
Speaker 1: that's what we mean by price to perfection, and all
18:09
Speaker 1: of a sudden something happens like uh an invasion of Ukraine,
18:13
Speaker 1: like this, you know, lockdown in China that really make
18:16
Speaker 1: the supply chain woes even worse that we're created initially
18:21
Speaker 1: by COVID, and you've really got a situation that that
18:24
Speaker 1: stresses the market. So this notion of exogenous shocks always
18:29
Speaker 1: ought to be factored into one's risk calculation. So where
18:34
Speaker 1: are you finding opportunity if you look at the equity
18:37
Speaker 1: market right now? I mean you mentioned tech sort of
18:39
Speaker 1: priced for perfection. I mean, is it safe to say
18:42
Speaker 1: that you're not going all in on tech right now? Well,
18:46
Speaker 1: now we're we're really First of all, I would say this, Katie,
18:50
Speaker 1: if you're an allocator, in other words, if you're a
18:52
Speaker 1: four one K participant, you really ought to be happy
18:55
Speaker 1: that the market is down as much as it is
18:57
Speaker 1: because from a dollar cost averaging standpoint, this is a
19:00
Speaker 1: chance for you to buy stocks cheaper than you did
19:03
Speaker 1: last quarter and last year. And what you want to
19:06
Speaker 1: do over time, and and you know, the beauty of
19:08
Speaker 1: dollar cost averaging is if you put in the same
19:10
Speaker 1: amount of money every quarter, you'd buy more stock, more
19:15
Speaker 1: ownership when the prices are low. So it really enhances
19:18
Speaker 1: you return over time to be buying when stocks are low.
19:21
Speaker 1: So from a standpoint of four one K participants or allocators,
19:25
Speaker 1: they should continue to pursue their strategy, which is, if
19:29
Speaker 1: they want to have six of their assets and stocks
19:31
Speaker 1: and it's dropped a little bit, you know, balance it
19:34
Speaker 1: back up or at least halfway back up. So broadly
19:37
Speaker 1: in the US equity market and really around the world,
19:40
Speaker 1: we still think you should be buying when at low
19:43
Speaker 1: prices and then self stop there all right, good stuff.
19:47
Speaker 1: John Hurdle, Executive Chairman Hurdle, Callahan and Company. He is
19:52
Speaker 1: a proud alumnus underground n NBA from Happy Valley. That
19:55
Speaker 1: would be State College Pennsylvania at the penn State University.
20:04
Speaker 1: It is job staying is trial is just reporting it
20:06
Speaker 1: a better and expected print there on the jobless number today,
20:08
Speaker 1: so a better and expected UH jobs environment. We had
20:12
Speaker 1: some good UH wage increases five point on an annualized basis,
20:17
Speaker 1: maybe even some room to grow on the labor participation rate.
20:19
Speaker 1: So things are pretty good here in the US. Let's
20:21
Speaker 1: take a look at how it might be on a
20:22
Speaker 1: global scale. We can do that with our next guest,
20:25
Speaker 1: Nicole Sahine, founder and author UH and the firm is
20:28
Speaker 1: Globalization Partners, Nicole, as the name of your firm implies globalization. Um,
20:33
Speaker 1: how's the global labor market? It's pretty solid here, as
20:36
Speaker 1: we got another data point today here in the US.
20:38
Speaker 1: But what are you seeing around the world in other parts?
20:41
Speaker 1: We're seeing exactly the same thing as we're seeing in
20:43
Speaker 1: the United States, which is the talent market for professional
20:47
Speaker 1: skilled talent is extremely tight. So the interesting of the
20:52
Speaker 1: here I'm just wondering, you know, immigration issues, UM and
20:59
Speaker 1: the whole move took. Globalization seem to you know, taken
21:01
Speaker 1: a backseat over the last you know, four or five years,
21:04
Speaker 1: the whole concept of you know, a globalized economy. Uh,
21:08
Speaker 1: people are pulling back from that a little bit. How
21:10
Speaker 1: do you think about that? Where are we in terms
21:12
Speaker 1: of the globalization of this economy? Yeah, it's it is
21:17
Speaker 1: super interesting. I think that the key difference here is
21:20
Speaker 1: that people no longer need to immigrate in order to
21:23
Speaker 1: have access to opportunity. What we're seeing is that the
21:26
Speaker 1: best companies in the world are going wherever the talent is.
21:29
Speaker 1: So right now we see customers who have never hired
21:31
Speaker 1: internationally before UM just hiring talent anywhere they can find it.
21:35
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it was that way for quite some
21:37
Speaker 1: time and engineering, but now we're seeing them do that
21:39
Speaker 1: all across the board and and pretty much every role
21:42
Speaker 1: that you could do in a digital environment. And that
21:45
Speaker 1: is kind of presumably that is a result or an
21:49
Speaker 1: outcome of UM a byproduct of this pandemic. Yeah, you know,
21:54
Speaker 1: I think it's a it's a result of the pandemic
21:56
Speaker 1: and our mental shift towards the idea that anyone truly
21:59
Speaker 1: can work from anywhere instead of, you know, having people
22:02
Speaker 1: go to the office. I think we all realized how
22:03
Speaker 1: productive we can be. And of course it's a result
22:06
Speaker 1: of the incredible technology that's come along the last ten
22:09
Speaker 1: here that hasn't enabled us all to be truly productive
22:11
Speaker 1: from anywhere. Yeah, it really is amazing. Um. You know,
22:14
Speaker 1: I was thinking just initially of the financial services industry
22:17
Speaker 1: and here in New York City, for example, when the
22:19
Speaker 1: trading desk shut down on all the traders went home,
22:21
Speaker 1: I said, there's no way they're going to be able
22:23
Speaker 1: to kind of do what they did on these big
22:25
Speaker 1: trading desks. But sure enough, quarter after quarter after quarter,
22:28
Speaker 1: Wall Street has delivered incredible trading results showing that their
22:33
Speaker 1: employees could, in fact, uh, their bankers, their traders could
22:36
Speaker 1: in fact be productive. Is that what we're seeing in
22:39
Speaker 1: a lot of the economy other parts of the economy
22:41
Speaker 1: as well. Oh? Absolutely, I mean we're seeing exactly that
22:45
Speaker 1: people can be productive from working remotely and from home,
22:49
Speaker 1: and people want to be able to work from wherever
22:51
Speaker 1: they are. So I think in many ways it's great
22:55
Speaker 1: for everyone. It's great for companies, and it's great for employees,
22:59
Speaker 1: because again, we all want to live where we want
23:01
Speaker 1: to live instead of just consolidating opportunity around New York,
23:04
Speaker 1: in the Silicon Valley in London. Are we seeing employers
23:07
Speaker 1: or do you think we will see employers say Okay,
23:10
Speaker 1: you don't want to work in high priced Silicon Valley
23:13
Speaker 1: or or New York City. You want to you know,
23:16
Speaker 1: be in Idaho. I'm going to just your compensation accordingly.
23:20
Speaker 1: Is is that happening? Will it happen? Oh? Uh so?
23:24
Speaker 1: I think it depends on the situation. I would say
23:26
Speaker 1: that usually right now, because the labor market is so tight,
23:29
Speaker 1: and because things happen so suddenly with the pandemic without
23:32
Speaker 1: people companies being prepared. Most of many of the time,
23:36
Speaker 1: companies might have tried to adjust compensation a bit, but
23:39
Speaker 1: more often than not it was just in default the
23:41
Speaker 1: employee moved. Now, I will say, salary is still set
23:46
Speaker 1: by a location. So in general, while we are seeing
23:49
Speaker 1: compensation go up across the board quite quickly, as we've
23:52
Speaker 1: all been talking about um, usually compensation is set by geography.
23:58
Speaker 1: But I think over the next ten years will start
24:00
Speaker 1: you know, the trend line is changing on that, but
24:04
Speaker 1: not overnight Yeah, it's interesting and I guess what we're
24:08
Speaker 1: learning from when we listen to companies on you know,
24:09
Speaker 1: when they report quarterly either more and more companies are
24:12
Speaker 1: saying this really seems to be the new reality, this
24:15
Speaker 1: being kind of hybrid work schedule, whether it's you know,
24:18
Speaker 1: a few days a week in the office or you know,
24:21
Speaker 1: a week a month in the office. Is that the
24:23
Speaker 1: trend you're seeing around the world, I am. We are
24:28
Speaker 1: seeing around the world. Um, it really depends a little
24:32
Speaker 1: bit by country and culture. Some some locations just it's
24:35
Speaker 1: really the cultural norm to go into the office. And
24:38
Speaker 1: that was the case much more as compared to the
24:40
Speaker 1: United States, which awaits how to work. We had a
24:42
Speaker 1: pretty flexible remote work policy for most professional organizations. But
24:46
Speaker 1: now what we're seeing there's two interesting trends I would
24:49
Speaker 1: say around the world. One is that the remote work
24:52
Speaker 1: has become one of the most valuable benefits for employees
24:56
Speaker 1: everywhere in the world. People just do not want to
24:58
Speaker 1: go into the office, um, and I think that companies
25:00
Speaker 1: that are insisting everyone go into the office all the
25:03
Speaker 1: time are going to get some pushed back. The other
25:05
Speaker 1: trend is that we're seeing we're seeing employees and locations
25:09
Speaker 1: everywhere saying I don't want an Indian salary or I
25:13
Speaker 1: don't want an Ohio salary. I want a New York
25:15
Speaker 1: City salary. And I'm worth it regardless of what my
25:17
Speaker 1: costs and what my cost of living is. That's hugely
25:20
Speaker 1: different than it was before. Yeah, it's certainly. I think
25:23
Speaker 1: the leverage is on the on the part of the
25:25
Speaker 1: employee at this moment um. It's it's interesting, you know,
25:29
Speaker 1: I spent thirty years on Wall Street, and you know,
25:31
Speaker 1: when I think about the various firms I worked at,
25:34
Speaker 1: I don't think about really the building. I don't think about,
25:37
Speaker 1: you know, necessarily the deals we did or the trades
25:39
Speaker 1: we made. It was more about the people that I
25:41
Speaker 1: identify with and and that was forged by being together,
25:45
Speaker 1: working together, eating together, traveling together. I do, in fact,
25:49
Speaker 1: wonder how important that is. It seems important to me
25:52
Speaker 1: now as I look back on my career, but I
25:54
Speaker 1: wonder how important that whole camaraderie and working together, the
25:58
Speaker 1: benefits of being together, how much of a risk that
26:01
Speaker 1: is for employees and employers longer term. Yeah, it's it's
26:06
Speaker 1: incredibly important because I think you're right that human connection
26:09
Speaker 1: is what bonds us. What we're doing at Globalization partners
26:12
Speaker 1: UM is you know, with our own internal team, we
26:15
Speaker 1: are working to bring to people together on a quarterly,
26:19
Speaker 1: bi annual or annual basis where people can see each
26:22
Speaker 1: other in person. And in some cases we're getting not
26:25
Speaker 1: office locations, but locations where people can go in and
26:28
Speaker 1: meet each other and talk. So, for example, with our
26:31
Speaker 1: Global Employments platform UM, it enables companies to hire talent
26:35
Speaker 1: all over the globe without dealing with legal HR and
26:38
Speaker 1: tax issues. Are engineers like to meet in a central
26:41
Speaker 1: location and just kind of brainstorm things out with a
26:43
Speaker 1: white board, So we're you know, trying to enable them
26:48
Speaker 1: to have those meeting spaces UM without forcing people to
26:51
Speaker 1: go to an office on a schedule, because they really
26:53
Speaker 1: do their best, you know, alone work at home by
26:56
Speaker 1: themselves in most cases. Interesting. Well it just lastly, just
27:00
Speaker 1: quickly on immigration in this country, we still see a
27:03
Speaker 1: lot of you know, pretty much every restaurant, every place
27:06
Speaker 1: you kind of go, retail help wanted and I kind
27:08
Speaker 1: of think a lot of that those types of roles
27:10
Speaker 1: were filled by immigrants, legal and illegal. How do you
27:13
Speaker 1: think see that involving in the US. That's stuff to say.
27:17
Speaker 1: I mean that is definitely a political question. But at
27:20
Speaker 1: the end of the day, Um, I think wages are
27:23
Speaker 1: going up, so hopefully more of those roles will be
27:26
Speaker 1: filled by people who are here. I think prices are
27:28
Speaker 1: going up, so in California, for example, did increase significantly
27:32
Speaker 1: restaurant prices. And there's inflation cost adjustments on menus, which
27:36
Speaker 1: is just a new way organizations are dealing with this
27:39
Speaker 1: type of costs. Um. Right. I think immigration is a
27:45
Speaker 1: good thing when we don't have enough people to fulfill
27:47
Speaker 1: all the jobs that we want. Um. Highly politically charged topic. Yeah,
27:51
Speaker 1: absolutely want to see how that evolves. Nicole Sahine, founder
27:54
Speaker 1: an author of Globalization partis talking about the global labor markets.
27:58
Speaker 1: Certainly good here in the US again, good good jobs
28:01
Speaker 1: number today. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
28:05
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts
28:09
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
28:13
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three and on Fall Sweeney
28:17
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you
28:19
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.