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Episode 358 - 9/23/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 358 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
• 0:38
  guys, as we transition from an epic NFL Week 3 to now Week 4.
• 0:44
  And of course, another week in college football.
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  And we got a lot to talk about today.
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  I only have one official best bet pick.
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  You know, Tuesday's Slim Pickens here.
• 0:51
  We do have a full Major League Baseball slate, but as you have
• 0:55
  maybe found out by yourself, you know, bad beats left and right.
• 0:58
  It's been weird down the stretch, very volatile in the
• 1:00
  MLB market. So I could have had a few plays
• 1:03
  for you, but I settled on one play that kind of fits and
• 1:06
  checks off all the boxes. Sharp line move, good splits,
• 1:09
  good system matches and also a motivational edge where this
• 1:12
  team is fighting for a playoff spot and their opponent has been
• 1:15
  eliminated. So just one bet in baseball,
• 1:17
  going to try to rob the bank and get out before getting caught.
• 1:20
  One play here in MLB and then as we like to get into our new
• 1:24
  routine in the fall, which I believe today's the first day of
• 1:26
  fall officially or was it yesterday?
• 1:28
  But either way, you can put a bow and ribbon on summer.
• 1:30
  It's officially autumn. You know, that means you got to
• 1:33
  get ready for, for Halloween, get your get your, you know,
• 1:35
  your tombstones on your front yard and all your pumpkins.
• 1:38
  And if you're like me and you live in New England, mums,
• 1:40
  people go nuts for mums. So either way, you got to get
• 1:44
  ready for the fall. My favorite season overall, I
• 1:46
  must admit, But we do have to get back into our our groove of
• 1:50
  trying to pick off good numbers early, getting hooks, getting
• 1:53
  key numbers early in the week. Hopefully that by the time the
• 1:56
  weekend rolls around, we're glad we got these good numbers and we
• 1:59
  were proactive about it. So today on Tuesdays, you know
• 2:02
  what that means, an early sharp report.
• 2:04
  So this one Forte will be college football Week 5.
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  And I must admit to you guys, some weeks there's a lot of
• 2:10
  games that, you know, check off boxes.
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  You get excited, you might have, you know, four or five plays.
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  There are other weeks where not really much jumps out to you and
• 2:17
  you got to be selective. Well, this is one of those weeks
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  where there's a lot of games popping here.
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  So really heavily bet big, big popular games with sharp line
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  moves and one in particular with a really good rhythm edge.
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  So we'll talk about that here in a second.
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  But one MLB play for tonight and then we'll talk 3 early college
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  football bets that I've already put in pocket.
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  And you can decide for yourself whether you want to put him in
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  now and decide on your own. But anyway, college football MLB
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  for today. And then tomorrow we'll have our
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  early NFL sharp report. And I'm already seeing some dog
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  to fave line moves. I'm seeing one International
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  Series line move that I'm really excited about.
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  So just get ready. We'll be talking NFL tomorrow.
• 2:57
  But looking back to our last night, guys finished up the NFL
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  week strong one and O + 0.85 units and absolute massive
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  banger with Dan Campbell and the Lions getting it done.
• 3:10
  Lions winning outright 38 to 30 and man do they come to play
• 3:14
  trick plays. Just you know, going forward on
• 3:17
  4th down. Classic Dan Campbell win there.
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  But really, if you look in the the NFL sharp betting playbook,
• 3:24
  this is an example of what we look for heavily back game
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  public Baltimore line went to Detroit plus 6 1/2 down to 4
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  1/2. We're checking off a ton of
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  boxes. Primetime dog short Rd. dog 6 or
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  less both off a blowout. Take the road dog Dan Campbell
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  now 24 and 11 ATS as a dog 69% Bill Vinovich.
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  Even people laugh at these these ref trends 57% to the road team.
• 3:49
  Lamar Jackson only 41% covering as a favorite of 4 1/2 or more.
• 3:53
  Lions dog who can score system match, chef's kiss all lined up
• 3:58
  perfectly. Detroit wins outright.
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  So I was great to see and I'm also glad I laid off the total
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  because again, we talked about it yesterday, but it was very
• 4:06
  clear there was nothing but over money flowing in 50 1/2 all the
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  way up to around 54. It provided a buy low spot on
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  the inflated contrarian under. But then also when you see big
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  money and 'cause steam toward and over, sometimes it flies
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  over. That's what happened.
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  Obviously 68 points are scored. So I think that was a good
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  example of, hey, you could have just followed the sharp steam to
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  the over Or if you wanted to buy low and play the contrarian
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  under, you kind of had kind of cases made for both sides and
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  and when you have a case can be made for both sides, you should
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  probably layoff. But it was pretty clear with the
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  spread public Baltimore line went to Detroit with all the
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  system matches. So the Lions are the Lions
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  getting it done. Great end to NFL week.
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  What was it, 3? Now we go to Week 4.
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  With that being said, guys, early portion of our week, what
• 4:54
  do we like to do? As I mentioned, pick off good
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  numbers that you bet them on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and
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  you're really, really happy by Saturday because hopefully
• 5:02
  you're beating some closing lines.
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  So let's look toward the college football slate this upcoming
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  weekend. Early sharp report.
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  I got 3 plays in pocket. Let's talk about them all.
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  So first one on the board that I want to hit on Notre Dame and
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  Arkansas. I'm looking at the the board for
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  this weekend and this is one of the most heavily bet games
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  overall. And the other two we're going to
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  talk about are extremely heavily bet as well.
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  So let's set the stage. Talk line movement, split system
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  matches and I'll give you my play for this one.
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  So this is a noon game coming up on Saturday.
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  Notre Dame comes in one and two ranked 22nd.
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  Why is A1 and two team ranked? That's weird bias toward Notre
• 5:37
  Dame. Anyway, they got their first
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  win. They crushed Purdue 56 to 30
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  last week, covered as a 24 1/2 point home favorite.
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  You know, Arkansas two and two on the year, just came up short
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  against Memphis, 32 to 31. They're actually a 7 1/2 point
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  Rd. favorite, lost outright. Now, what do we see across the
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  market here? Well, this game opened Irish
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  listed around a six point Rd. favorite and the public is
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  saying we don't care. They're one and two.
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  Irish are a good school. They're ranked.
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  Arkansas's unranked. Arkansas's lost two straight.
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  So the public is pounding Notre Dame. 76% of spread bets are
• 6:10
  laying the points of the Irish. However, even though they're
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  getting nearly 80% of tickets, we have not seen Notre Dame go
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  up from -6 up to -7 No, it's completely gone the other way.
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  We've seen Notre Dame fall from -6 down to 4 1/2 or even 4.
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  So take a step back. Let's ask ourselves this
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  question. If the public is pounding Notre
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  Dame at -6 why are the oddsmakers dropping the Irish to
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  -4 1/2 - 4, making it easier with a better number, shorter
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  spread for the public to cover when they're already playing
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  Notre Dame to begin with doesn't mean you double down, triple
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  down, you hit. This is what I would did when I
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  was 20 years old. I love Notre Dame and I'll play
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  him twice. But now as I've gotten older,
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  I've learned that, hey, if it looks too good to be true, if
• 6:51
  it's fishy, doesn't make sense, there's usually a reason for it.
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  So a classic reverse line move play.
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  This is kind of similar to the Lions game from last night,
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  where Notre Dame is in that Raven spot, Arkansas is in the,
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  you know, their home. They're in the Lion spot because
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  again, Notre Dame opened -6 even though public is pounding Notre
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  Dame, they're down to 4 1/2. Even 4 sells a smart money going
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  with Arkansas. Now Arkansas in addition, only
• 7:15
  24% of spread bets, but 39% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
• 7:21
  You also look at circa Arkansas, 44% of spread bets, 67% of
• 7:26
  spread dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
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  really good low bets, higher dollar splits in favor of the
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  Razorbacks. Arkansas also has just classic
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  buy low sell high value as an unranked dog against the ranked
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  opponent. Unranked dogs are 136 and 116
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  ATS 54 percent, 3% ROI against ranked team since 2024.
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  So in this spot, unranked first ranked contrarian line move in
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  their favor. There's been a good spot to to
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  kind of follow and, and and play that that line move in that buy
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  low sell high unranked first ranked.
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  Now here's the important thing. Rhythm has Arkansas getting 4.4,
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  and a lot of books are down to Arkansas +4.
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  This is one of those plays where you got to shop around because
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  you can still get Arkansas plus 4 1/2.
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  Again, you got to have multiple multiple outs here, but you can
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  get plus 4 1/2 -, 115 at Bet MGM.
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  You can also get plus 4 1/2 -, 120 at FanDuel.
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  But every other book I'm looking in, I'm in in Massachusetts
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  Draftking, Caesar's, ESPN, Bet Fanatics, Bally Bet, they're all
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  four. And believe it or not, ESPN is
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  actually 3 1/2. So this is one of those games
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  where, again, seven to three, you know, you know, that kind of
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  split touchdown versus field goal, that's 4 1/2 you want to
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  cover by the hook. How many games have we seen?
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  You know, Tennessee plus 3 1/2 lose by three.
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  You got to get the hook here. But I did play Arkansas plus 4
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  1/2 - 115 at Bet MGM and that is right up my alley as a heavily
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  back game public Notre Dame line going Arkansas.
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  I took the 4 1/2 - 115 at Bet MGM.
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  So let's go Razorbacks next one for you.
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  Second most heavily back game. It'll probably end up being the
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  most heavily back game of the week.
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  Alabama, Georgia should be a great showdown in the SEC.
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  Let's set the stage for this one.
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  There's a 7:30 PM primetime game coming up on Saturday.
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  I mentioned right now it's the second most heavily bet game.
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  Number one is Oregon and Penn State, but again, they're both
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  at 7:30. They'll probably end up being
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  for sure the top 2 most heavily bet games.
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  But anyway, Alabama 2 and one ranked 17th just took care of
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  business against Wisconsin 38 to 14 covered as an 18 1/2 point
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  home favorite. Meanwhile Georgia 3 and O ranked
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  5th. They just eked by Tennessee 44
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  to 41 as you mentioned before in overtime did not cover though as
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  a 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite. So what do you see across the
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  market here? Will this game open Georgia?
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  Georgia listed as high as a 4 1/2 point home favorite and the
• 9:57
  public says Georgia all day. They're ranked higher, they got
• 10:00
  a better record. You know, Bama, obviously
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  there's questions about Caitlin de Boer and and the head coach.
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  No more Nick Saban, obviously. You know, usually you see Bama
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  top five, the ranked 17th. So Publix a little bit low on
• 10:12
  Bama. They're high on Georgia at home.
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  So 78% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying it with
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  Georgia. However, Georgia hasn't moved up
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  -4 1/2 to -5 1/2 -, 6. It's gone the other way.
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  You've seen Georgia fall from -4 1/2 down to -3 and believe it or
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  not, some shops even down to 2 1/2.
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  So again, if Publix all over the Bulldogs, why is this line
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  falling toward the Crimson Tide tells us smart money has loaded
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  up here on Alabama cause and trigger that reverse line
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  movement in favor of Alabama even though they are a very
• 10:45
  unpopular play. Now.
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  Even if you don't have that sharp line move RLM play toward
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  Bama 4 1/2 down to three. Alabama was just a straight up
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  huge contrarian play. It's the number one contrarian
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  play of the weekend because Bama is only getting 22% of spread
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  bets and a heavily bet primetime nationally televised game.
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  These are the spots you want to bet against the public.
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  The 738 o'clock Saturday night games.
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  Everybody drunk at the bar is going Georgia.
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  We're going Alabama here at Circa.
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  We have Bama 27% of spread bets, but 47% of spread dollars.
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  So a little low bets higher dollar split there in favor of
• 11:23
  Alabama out in Vegas, short Rd. dogs getting 4 or less.
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  You know, we like this grinder system because you know,
• 11:29
  typically you're going to get around 3 points for home field.
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  So if the home favorite is around a three-point favorite,
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  that basically means on a neutral site, it should be about
• 11:37
  a pick em game or maybe even Alabama slight favorite
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  favorite. You also so that short Rd. dog 4
• 11:43
  or less, I should say 634 and 553 ATS 53 percent, 3% ROI since
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  2012. Bama also has value as a
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  conference dog. SO2 SEC teams facing off, built
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  in familiarity, rivalry aspect, levels the playing field
• 11:58
  benefits the team getting points.
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  Here's another nugget for you. 2 SEC teams face off.
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  So it's an SEC conference game. Take the dog since the start of
• 12:08
  last year, it's 45 and 26 ATS 63%.
• 12:12
  That's pretty darn good. 21% ROI.
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  So Publix, Georgia Line is moving toward Alabama.
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  We have a huge contrarian play in a heavily bet primetime game.
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  And then also we look at our friends at Rhythm.
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  Check this out. Rhythm has Bama plus 2.9 and I
• 12:29
  have another model Bama plus 1.6.
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  So those are well within the the three here, giving us some value
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  and opportunity to take Alabama. And here is the important thing.
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  I really wanted the hook here and basically every book is at
• 12:47
  Alabama +3, but I found at Fanatics, they're juicing up the
• 12:51
  three toward Georgia -3 -, 115. So I believe it or not, bought
• 12:56
  up a half point on Alabama because at Fanatics it's plus
• 13:00
  three at -1 O 5. I only do this around a key
• 13:03
  number, and I only do this if you're juiced down.
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  Basically, we always talk about being juiced up.
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  That's -115 or more. When you're juiced down, you're
• 13:11
  basically minus one O 5 or even money or plus 100.
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  So I flipped Fanatics plus 3 - 1 O 5 2 + 3 - 125.
• 13:21
  So it was $0.20 to get that hook.
• 13:23
  But again, key #3 Bama loses by three, we can still cover.
• 13:27
  So I did buy Bama up plus 3 1/2 - 125 at Fanatics.
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  So that is my play. Let's go Bama baby Roll Tide.
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  And again, I love the fact that Rhythms got a 2.9 and a 1.6.
• 13:41
  Last one for you in college. Cannot wait to see this one.
• 13:44
  LSU Ole Miss 3:30 PM Eastern Time.
• 13:49
  Wait, wait until I give you the breakdown.
• 13:50
  This one, this is just right up my alley.
• 13:52
  But I also saw there was something that went live or
• 13:55
  viral on Twitter. Basically it was I believe Lane
• 13:58
  Kiffin's daughter. I think her name is Landry
• 14:01
  Kiffin. She apparently is Instagram
• 14:05
  official with the star linebacker for LSU.
• 14:08
  So her dad is the coach of Ole Miss On the week that they play
• 14:12
  LSU, she tweets out her and will weeks or after he's the star
• 14:17
  linebacker. Anyway, just found like that was
• 14:20
  kind of interesting. I wonder what Lane Lane Kiffin
• 14:23
  thinks of that. But anyway, LSU Ole Miss 330
• 14:26
  right now. This is your third most heavily
• 14:28
  bet game of the weekend. LSU comes in four and O ranked
• 14:32
  4th. They just crushed Southeast
• 14:34
  Louisiana 56 to 10, but they didn't cover.
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  They're favored by 48 1/2 at home.
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  Didn't cover the number. You know Ole Miss Four and O
• 14:41
  ranked 13th. They just dominated Tulane 45 to
• 14:45
  10, easily covered as a 12 1/2 point home favorite.
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  So what do we see across the market?
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  Will LSU open this game as a very short 1 1/2 point Rd.
• 14:54
  favorite? And the public is all over LSU
• 14:56
  now. Both teams are undefeated, but
• 14:58
  LSU is ranked much higher, fourth versus 13th.
• 15:02
  So we're currently getting across the market 71% of spread
• 15:06
  bets backing LSU. However, LSU hasn't gone up -1
• 15:10
  1/2 to -2 -, 3. We've seen this line flip to now
• 15:14
  Ole Miss -1 1/2. Ole Miss at one point even
• 15:18
  reached -2 1/2 over the last couple days before they came
• 15:21
  back down to 1 1/2. So you guys know what we have
• 15:23
  here. Woo woo, not a Ken pump sound
• 15:26
  the alarm. College hoops is still what, a
• 15:28
  month away or so, but a dog to fave line move.
• 15:31
  We open LSU favored. We've now flipped to Ole Miss
• 15:34
  favored. So Ole Miss has gone from plus 1
• 15:36
  1/2 to -1 1/2. And why is that super important?
• 15:40
  Not only a dog to fave line move.
• 15:42
  That gets me excited because it takes a lot to flip dog to fave.
• 15:45
  Remember with who was it North Texas over the weekend dog to
• 15:49
  fave line move came through, but also the fact that this is a
• 15:51
  reverse line move dog to fave because Publix LSU 71% but line
• 15:57
  flip to Ole Miss. So Ole Miss has really good buy
• 16:01
  low value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily back game.
• 16:04
  Only 29% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Ole Miss.
• 16:08
  My angle here though, you got to go money line or you don't have
• 16:11
  to do anything. You can do whatever you want.
• 16:12
  You want to lay the 1 1/2, hope they win by two or more, save
• 16:15
  some juice, All the power to you.
• 16:18
  But I'm going to protect myself a little bit.
• 16:19
  You know this open -1 1/2 LSU, now we're Ole Miss -1 1/2.
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  What if it's a one point win by Ole Miss?
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  I want to make sure I win that bet on the money line instead of
• 16:28
  lose a - 1 1/2. So I got down on Ole Miss money
• 16:31
  line -114 at FanDuel Shop Brown. Most of the market is -115 -
• 16:37
  120. But here's another angle.
• 16:39
  I like when 2 ranked teams face off.
• 16:42
  The home favorite is 173 and 4380% win rate with a 10% ROI
• 16:50
  since 2016. So that would match with Ole
• 16:52
  Miss. And oh by the way, little cherry
• 16:54
  on top. I popped open the Rhythm app
• 16:57
  Rhythm has Ole Miss -3.2 and -3.5.
• 17:02
  So this reminds me a little bit of the Eagles game against the
• 17:06
  Chiefs where Eagles went dog to fave and Rhythm had eagles -3
• 17:10
  They won by three, but at the time I think they're -1 1/2.
• 17:13
  Well, we got dog to fave, Ole Miss contrarian play and Rhythms
• 17:16
  got about a three or 3 1/2 point game.
• 17:18
  So that's a good edge here on Ole Miss.
• 17:20
  So I am backing Lane Kiffin who always knows the spread.
• 17:24
  And again, what if he wins by 1 and laughs at everyone who laid
• 17:27
  1 1/2? Don't be surprised he's done
• 17:28
  that before. Just YouTube Lane Kiffin rat
• 17:31
  poison and you'll hear him talk about it.
• 17:33
  But I really like this spot tour Ole Miss dog to fave.
• 17:36
  So I am on the Rebels money line -114 at Where did I say FanDuel?
• 17:43
  So Arkansas plus 4 1/2, Ole Miss money line, Bama plus 3 1/2 -,
• 17:49
  125. Again, buying the half point at
• 17:51
  Fanatics. Now, one baseball game for you
• 17:55
  because baseball, it's rough out there.
• 17:57
  But we're down to six games left.
• 17:59
  I'm on pins and needles because I have Red Sox over 85 1/2 wins,
• 18:03
  and right now they're at 85 wins.
• 18:05
  So we have six games left. We need to win just one more to
• 18:08
  get the Red Sox over. So fingers crossed.
• 18:11
  Would be nice if you could get it done here in Toronto.
• 18:13
  But my one play tonight, Pittsburgh Pirates at the
• 18:16
  Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
• 18:19
  Let's set the stage here. And this is really a sharp play
• 18:23
  from the betting market and a motivational edge.
• 18:25
  So coming into it, Pirates 67 and 89.
• 18:28
  They did, however, just take two or three against the A's.
• 18:31
  Meanwhile, the Reds 80 and 76 and they just swept the Chicago
• 18:36
  Cubs. They've won, I believe five in a
• 18:37
  row. So starting match up on the
• 18:40
  mound here tonight. Johann Oviedo, righty going for
• 18:44
  Pirates. He's 2 and O 3.52 era.
• 18:46
  He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, fellow righty.
• 18:49
  He's 14 and ten 3.86 ERA. So we've seen across the market,
• 18:54
  well, nothing but movement in favor of Terry Francona's red
• 18:58
  legs. We've seen the Reds get steamed
• 19:00
  up around -150 now up to around -165 -170 even -175 I jumped on
• 19:08
  Cincinnati -165 at Bet MGM, but I really like the line move.
• 19:12
  I like the splits quite a bit. If you look at DraftKings, 86%
• 19:17
  bets, 92% dollars on Cincinnati and then also at Circa 95% bets
• 19:23
  98% dollars on Cincinnati. So even though it's it's, you
• 19:26
  know, public per SE, it's also super sharp pro and Joe with
• 19:31
  that line move and that those splits in favor of the red legs.
• 19:35
  Now few things to like about the Reds in the spot.
• 19:38
  Let's just talk about the system matches.
• 19:39
  Both off a win. Take the home favorite, that's
• 19:42
  61% this year, 2% ROI. Both had the day off.
• 19:46
  Take the home favorite, 64% this year, 3% ROI.
• 19:51
  Both off a win. Just take the home team 62%, 12%
• 19:55
  ROI game one home fav big Steam $0.20 or more, 68% this year, 4%
• 20:01
  ROI and a rested favorite coming off a day off 66% with a 4% ROI.
• 20:06
  So those are all system matches that are lighting up on
• 20:09
  Cincinnati. I want to back Brady Singer.
• 20:12
  He has a 2 point O 4 ERA in three September starts.
• 20:15
  So he's pitched very well down the stretch and at home he's 8
• 20:18
  and four with a three-point O 7 ERA.
• 20:21
  I'm going to bank on Cincinnati's offense hopefully
• 20:23
  producing. They're hitting 245 on the year,
• 20:26
  161 home runs, 697 runs scored versus the Pirates, who I
• 20:31
  believe are the lowest scoring team in baseball.
• 20:33
  They're only hitting two 31112 homers, 561 runs scored.
• 20:39
  Classic home Rd. Pittsburgh. 23 and 52 on the
• 20:42
  road. One of the worst Rd. teams in
• 20:43
  baseball. Cincinnati 44 and 34 at home.
• 20:47
  So they're 10 games up at home. So lines going to Cincinnati
• 20:51
  good pro and Joe Betts splits ton of system matches offense
• 20:55
  singer greater than Oviedo hopefully.
• 20:57
  But here's where you can layer in a little bit of AX factor
• 21:01
  variable. The Pittsburgh Pirates are
• 21:03
  eliminated from postseason contention.
• 21:05
  They got nothing to play for. However, the Reds have a lot to
• 21:09
  play for. The Reds right now are tied with
• 21:11
  the Mets for the third and final wild card spot.
• 21:15
  And if you actually look at the standings in the National
• 21:18
  League, the Reds are tied with the Mets for the third and final
• 21:22
  spot, but then the Diamondbacks are only one game back of them.
• 21:25
  So this is a super, super tight race.
• 21:28
  The Mets are really, really falling off and the Reds are
• 21:31
  getting hot at the right time. They're playing a team that's
• 21:33
  got nothing to play for. I'm back in Cincinnati tonight,
• 21:36
  guys, hopefully to get a win. Let's get it, Terry Francona.
• 21:40
  I'm a Red Sox fan. I always loved Tito.
• 21:43
  And I actually, when I first moved to Boston, I worked at
• 21:46
  Jerry Remy Sports Bar and Grill as a server.
• 21:48
  And it was 2010 was before the chicken and beer collapse.
• 21:53
  But I, I waited on Terry Franconi came in and he got
• 21:56
  nachos and he was the Super just awesome, cool guy.
• 22:00
  Left me a big tip. Awesome dude.
• 22:02
  So I'll always love Tito. And oh, by the way, he broke the
• 22:04
  curse, you know, burying the lead here.
• 22:07
  But I got the Reds tonight, guys -165 as well as all those early
• 22:11
  college football plays for this weekend.
• 22:13
  So that about does it for episode 358 of the All Systems
• 22:16
  Go sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 22:19
  This is the part of the pod, as always, where we wrap things up
• 22:22
  and I start first by saying thank you.
• 22:25
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 22:27
  busy lives. Know you got a lot going on.
• 22:29
  It's football season, back to school, you know, end of summer,
• 22:33
  start of fall. So life is busy, but you guys
• 22:35
  keep tuning in, keep grinding sharp contrarian plays with me.
• 22:39
  So that really does mean a lot. If you would like to help me
• 22:41
  grow this pod, could you please give it a five star review on
• 22:45
  Spotify or iTunes? If you want to leave a nice
• 22:47
  comment under the review section or click the follow button or
• 22:50
  recommend the pod to a friend or fellow sports better, I would
• 22:54
  very much appreciate that as well.
• 22:56
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown. data-driven,
• 23:00
  sharp contrarian betting. Focusing on numbers, not teams.
• 23:03
  Focusing on what the market is telling us, not what our innate
• 23:06
  biases and gut instincts are telling us.
• 23:09
  Because if you bet based on guts, again, isn't it funny
• 23:11
  people are always like go with your gut when in reality, you
• 23:14
  know, you should probably go with the numbers over your gut.
• 23:16
  But anyway, if this style of betting has appealed to you, you
• 23:19
  kind of see the value in it. You're starting to make sharper
• 23:21
  bets, beat closing lines, turn more of a profit.
• 23:24
  Well, you know what you should do if you want to learn more
• 23:26
  about data-driven betting, If you want to let me know.
• 23:27
  You appreciate the pod. But even more importantly, maybe
• 23:30
  there's someone in your life who wants to get into sports betting
• 23:33
  but has no idea how to do it. Or maybe they're a better and
• 23:35
  they lose a lot because they're just betting based on their gut.
• 23:38
  They have no bankroll management.
• 23:39
  They don't even look it the odds logic live odds page or the bet
• 23:42
  splits or anything like that. You know what you should do?
• 23:44
  You should go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
• 23:48
  sports betting and the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
• 23:51
  Those are my two books. Obviously the NFL Sharp Betting
• 23:54
  playbook I'm really excited about came out as you guys have
• 23:57
  heard me talk about this before, obviously, but came out a little
• 24:00
  a little bit more than a month ago.
• 24:03
  So if you want to pick up one or both of those books for you or
• 24:07
  for a friend, it would mean the world to me.
• 24:08
  If you would like to really be an All Star, give it a five star
• 24:12
  view on Amazon with a nice comment.
• 24:14
  That would really mean a lot. First one's on me, next one's on
• 24:17
  you. We'll post about the book and
• 24:18
  sweat some sharp contrarian plays together next.
• 24:21
  Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
• 24:23
  Rhythm great for their AI back models and predictions for game
• 24:26
  bets and player props. Obviously with the Thursday show
• 24:30
  coming up rhythm rundown, we'll be breaking on all the games in
• 24:33
  greater detail couple days from now again, 6:00 Eastern stream
• 24:37
  live on Twitter. You can also use the promo code
• 24:40
  start 25 to get 25% off rhythm. They added a refer a friend top
• 24:45
  right corner of the the app where you both get some some
• 24:48
  benefits and you can also enter these leaderboard contest or if
• 24:53
  you have the best system that performs each week you're going
• 24:56
  to get paid out each week. So make sure you enter those
• 24:58
  contests as well. And then Juice Rail.
• 25:02
  This podcast is free. If you'd like to support the
• 25:04
  pod, tip your podcast host. If you feel like I'm giving you
• 25:07
  guys good insights, I hope that is the case.
• 25:08
  I'm pretty, pretty confident that is the case.
• 25:12
  But if you'd like to let me know you appreciate the pod and tip
• 25:15
  your podcast host, please sign up for the All Systems Go
• 25:18
  official Best Bet picks available only and exclusively
• 25:21
  on the Juice Reel app. It costs $4.99 a week, 5 bucks.
• 25:26
  Cup of coffee. Yeah, a cup of coffee basically
• 25:29
  to get all the plays and you'll get them early, hopefully beat
• 25:32
  some closing lines and you're supporting the pod, so that
• 25:35
  would mean quite a bit to me. You also get the Robo Jackson
• 25:38
  best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays,
• 25:40
  the shop for the best line futures, all available with
• 25:43
  Juice Reel. So download Rhythm, download
• 25:45
  Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 25:48
  Next you have a live odds page. It is so important you got to
• 25:52
  have a live odds page got to be able to track the market so you
• 25:55
  got to know what the line opened at where is it now?
• 25:58
  How was it moved? Pull up the line history,
• 26:00
  identify steam the odds get lit in red.
• 26:02
  Shop for the best price. Live scoring, live in game
• 26:05
  wagering odds all available with the odds logic.
• 26:08
  Live odds pages the best live odds page around.
• 26:10
  So if you want to give it a shot, here's a link. 7 day free
• 26:14
  trial, 50% off your first month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
• 26:20
  123. Make sure you do the slash Josh
• 26:22
  123 at the end for the seven day free trial and 50% off your
• 26:25
  first month. Next.
• 26:27
  You've heard me talk about Novig.
• 26:29
  But instead of betting through a sports book, winning and getting
• 26:31
  limited or booted, you should try a betting exchange.
• 26:35
  You'll never get limited, never get booted.
• 26:37
  You get better odds because you're not having to pay the
• 26:38
  juice to the house. You're basically betting against
• 26:41
  other better. So when you lose, I'd rather my
• 26:43
  money go to another better than the than the house.
• 26:45
  And when I win, hey, I'll I'll cash my wings and not get
• 26:49
  limited. So if you want to give Novig a
• 26:51
  shot, just download the Novig app and you can use promo code
• 26:55
  Josh 123 for a 25 or 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks.
• 27:01
  So it operates just like a sports book.
• 27:03
  You put in 25 bucks, use promo code Josh 123 and then you'll
• 27:06
  have 50 and then it'll be off and running.
• 27:09
  So that about does it for episode 358 of the ASG pod.
• 27:13
  As always, guys, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
• 27:16
  City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 27:18
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the
• 27:21
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
• 27:24
  the Nash and National New Hampshire.
• 27:27
  In my neck of the woods, of course, in New England or out in
• 27:29
  the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
• 27:31
  Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible
• 27:34
  is found at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 27:37
  plays jump in the stadium swimming pool.
• 27:39
  When you catch a big ticket at Circle, you're going to walk up
• 27:41
  to me and we're going to see each other at the sports book
• 27:44
  and just go Lions baby a blueprint primetime sharp
• 27:50
  reverse line move as good as it gets and boy do the Lions show
• 27:53
  up. What a fantastic win and cover
• 27:56
  that was. So flash me alliance ticket.
• 27:58
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 28:00
  We'll post about the book and sweat the red legs together
• 28:02
  tonight. Sounds pretty good to me.
• 28:04
  So as always guys, after a 1 and O night, O and 1 great night,
• 28:07
  terrible night, mediocre night, hot, cold somewhere in the
• 28:10
  middle. Sports betting is hard.
• 28:12
  You don't need me to tell you. I still can't get over the bad
• 28:15
  beat with the Rams plus 3 1/2. It'll take a while.
• 28:18
  I I may never forget that one, but here's the thing.
• 28:21
  Sometimes the brakes go your way, sometimes they don't.
• 28:23
  We cannot control the outcome of the game, but we can do is put
• 28:27
  in the time and effort to diagnose the market, you know,
• 28:30
  evaluate all the information to make the sharpest and smartest
• 28:33
  bet that we can based on the numbers, not our not our
• 28:36
  feelings, not our gut instinct, not our biases.
• 28:38
  So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model
• 28:41
  against the public with the house, with the pros flat bet,
• 28:44
  avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 28:47
  to be successful sports betters. So have a great Tuesday night
• 28:51
  everybody enjoy the sweats. We right back at it tomorrow.
• 28:54
  We talking some NFL games for tomorrow and probably some more
• 28:57
  baseball. That'll be episode 359 of the
• 29:00
  All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 29:03
  Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday night.
• 29:06
  Good luck.