Latest / Best of Business / Satish Ranchhod: Westpac Senior Economist on the latest Westpac Regional Roundup

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Satish Ranchhod: Westpac Senior Economist on the latest Westpac Regional Roundup · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Right now, though we're going to Westpac. The regional Economic
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  Speaker 2: roundup is out. This is the October report. It's a
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  Speaker 2: bit of a mixed bag. It comes also as Greg
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  Speaker 2: Smith from Devin Funds promotes an aggressive sledge hammer approach
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  Speaker 2: to the ocr We've obviously got a cut coming tomorrow,
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  Speaker 2: but how big will it be? He wants one and
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  Speaker 2: a half percent off by Christmas. That would require seventy
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  Speaker 2: five basis points tomorrow and seventy five basis points in November.
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  Speaker 2: Ranchold is the Westpac senior economists with us this morning statistic.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning, Good morning Ryan.
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  Speaker 2: First of all, do you think aggressive cuts like that
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  Speaker 2: are required?
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  Speaker 3: I think that this scope to cut the OCI pretty quickly,
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  Speaker 3: but not that sort of pace. While we've seen that
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  Speaker 3: inflation's coming down, unemployed it still high, and we've got
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  Speaker 3: tired interest rate. So that makes the case to cutting
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  Speaker 3: the OSIOT fast pace. We saw during the pandemic that
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  Speaker 3: when you cut rates too quickly can't have unintended consequences.
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  Speaker 3: It could risk supercharging the housing market, which could be
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  Speaker 3: a different problem for us altogether.
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  Speaker 2: Let's look at your regional roundup. HOSPO, retail bad, Wellington bad.
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  Speaker 2: We expect those things, we know those things. What were
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  Speaker 2: you told about new hiring from businesses.
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  Speaker 3: What we're hearing is that very few firms are looking
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  Speaker 3: at taking on staff right now. Those pressures that are
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  Speaker 3: seeing in terms of demands means that they are more
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  Speaker 3: cautious about taking on staff, and a lot of them
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  Speaker 3: have actually been shedding workers recently.
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  Speaker 2: Agriculture, tourism are they giving you a bit of hope?
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  Speaker 3: They are the bright spots of the economy right now.
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  Speaker 3: Tourism has been a boom for regions like Queenstown. We're
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  Speaker 3: also seeing some better prices for some of our key experts.
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  Speaker 3: That's been welcome for some of our rural regions.
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  Speaker 2: Southland I noticed you mentioned Southland and the report that
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  Speaker 2: they are coming off a little bit.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, has seen some more mixed conditions recently. Spending there
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  Speaker 3: has flattened off. But with a mix of conditions there,
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  Speaker 3: especially that improvement and agri places, it's really looking a
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  Speaker 3: bit more flat rather than weak.
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  Speaker 2: All right, thanks Sammy. Just finally that the North South divide,
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  Speaker 2: who is more optimistic right now I.
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  Speaker 3: Think we are seeing some more positive conditions coming through
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  Speaker 3: In the South Island. They've got that mix of tourism
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  Speaker 3: and agriculture as well as other industries helping to support sentiment.
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  Speaker 3: In the North Island, it was clearly a weaker picture,
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  Speaker 3: especially in Wellington for those job loss is being felt
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  Speaker 3: as well as financial pressures right across the country statists.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks so much for your time, Satisha Ranchold with US
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  Speaker 2: Westpac Senior Economists.
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