Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | April 6, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | April 6, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
All. System's going clear the lift, what's going on? Everybody talking fights
0:38
as usual on Friday with my man bag Marley. Pretty good UFC card man
0:43
next, I mean DFS card, I should say, okay, top to
0:46
bottom entertainment fights always loft thirteen. Next week's UFC three hundred, so we
0:51
can't be too greedy. I'm very pump what we got this week. I
0:55
think it's a pretty hard DFS card. I think it's another good DFS card.
0:59
You've been spoiled these past couple of weeks getting thirteen fights, none of
1:02
these eleven fights, ten fights going on. We do have waves going on
1:06
right now. Looks like roughly half the fighters already weighed in. They already
1:10
made way successfully. Still funny to go though, so fingers crossed. Keep
1:14
all thirteen twelve's not the worst though, bringing in big Marley. How you
1:18
doing on this fine Friday afternoon. Yeah, I'm good and I agree this
1:23
is a really tough card. There's I think every underdog is live on this
1:26
card, and then looking for fades is tough. So it's gonna be hard
1:30
to narrow down the playerpool on this one. There's a couple of people like
1:34
I'm okay, taking stands on, but I'm not trying to go near all
1:37
in on anybody. There's maybe two or three good fights that I'm cool targeting
1:42
both sides of and the majority of my lineups, but then there's a few
1:45
that I don't know what I'm gonna do with, so I hope you can
1:47
help me out on those. So Louis, hopefully I have something that I
1:51
need some help to. So hopefully we have different ones that we can try
1:53
and lead each other in the right path before we do get into it.
1:57
What's going on. Ben's always in here. MP's always get in here as
2:00
well, Big Card indeed, appreciate that like button, appreciate that subscribe button,
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and if you want to join us at the Nation, all the momentum
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in the world, so many new faces coming in on the daily robson here
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as well. If you want all the sports, you're watching MMA, so
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locks in three minutes after noon that locks in like an hour or something.
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Mainslate at three. NBA going on Rio Ship seventy k two days ago.
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Big NBA slate in association today, PGA showdown going on MMA Saturday, NASCAR
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Sunday. Man so busy over here, a lot of money to be made.
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Still, we don't raise our prices during times like this. All the
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either. But as long as thirty bucks you can see everything on the site.
3:00
Check out the content, see if it is right for you. Projections
3:02
ownership already up in MMA right now. If any updates, it'll be updated.
3:07
All of our stuff going on the site after the show, pretty shortly
3:10
after all my stuff is done. Just seeing if I'm going to make any
3:14
changes. Talking to Big Marley, got PGA, MLB, NBA, so
3:19
much going on Chipinnation dot com head over who fifteen is the promo code fifteen
3:24
percent off broad Slay any other Yeah, I guess you kind of gave your
3:29
broad Slay overview no favorites above minus what have we got? Three thirty right
3:36
now? Three forty is Melissa Mullins. Melissa Dixon right now the biggest favorite
3:40
minus three forty. We see them movese all the time in MMA. About
3:44
half the fights, seven of the thirteen expected to go the distance. Six
3:47
of them are expected to finish, So coin flip's there. We have one
3:52
really late notice replacement, but it's a pretty close line in that one Hugo
3:57
Falco minus one thirty minus one ten. I'm not gonna be making any rules
4:01
made events, gonna get a ton of ownership any other broad slid over review
4:04
before we go fight by fight. No, Hopefully we can talk it out
4:10
and I'll feel better after the podcast. But I haven't made lineups yet.
4:14
I do think it's gonna be a good MMM card where I just want to
4:15
spread out my exposure and hope to hit the nuts. Yeah, that's exactly
4:20
how we do. We talk a lot in the playbook Slave Player. I
4:24
put it on the poorier card when I got a live final seat or you
4:28
have to qualify multiple times for live final. Almost got the nuts. I
4:31
was actually talking to Siggy in Vegas. He brought it up. If you
4:34
saw my dots on those, they were all on the left pretty much just
4:38
one or two teams that trickled on the right, and MMA you only need
4:42
one or two. I don't think it's a sport. We talked about a
4:44
little last week. We'll get into it a little tangent, but I don't
4:47
think it's a sport. You go eighty percent on four fighters, full fade
4:50
seven fighters and hope to get lucky. Because even if you do that and
4:54
all those fighters win and all your fades lose, one guy that are like
4:59
one person you don't have or something can put up one thirty or one forty.
5:01
You can get everything else right on the card six for six everywhere,
5:05
you still don't take first place. Multiple chops in first second place is pretty
5:10
much irrelevant. So I definitely am trying to diversifying more in MMA. Sometimes
5:15
my pools a little bigger. I still try and make fades some stands,
5:17
but I try and mess with my ownerships, give myself more outs. You
5:20
only need one team and MMA, just like NFL Showdown, it's always first
5:25
place and after the first way chop, it's always a bunch of other ones.
5:29
NBA Showdown, a lot of people at chip a Nation have a lot
5:31
of success in the NBA Showdown streets. Same way, so MMA ownership,
5:35
game implication sports, and yeah, I try and spread myself out, not
5:41
necessarily trying. I'm gonna pick this guy to win, so on fade the
5:44
other one get more exposure target fights that I like more so than just individual
5:47
fighters in fights. That's enough of that, though. Let's get in fight
5:50
by fight thirteen to talk about on this fine Friday afternoon. Starting in the
5:56
women's division, Melissa Dixon Slash Mullins out Nor Cornall. Ninety three hundred is
6:01
Mullins, one of the most expensive on the card. Sixty nine hundred is
6:05
Cornal Mullins biggest favorite minus three forty Cornell plus two to eighty fight and inside
6:12
the distance plus one seventy five pretty much all the finish equity on the Mullins
6:16
side at plus two ten Cornall plus seven to twenty five. I've talked hbout
6:21
Big Marley take it away. Yeah, there's one where I really don't know
6:26
what I want to do with this one, BECA because the salaries are so
6:30
spread out. I do think that Mullin's big advantage in this one is going
6:32
to be on the ground. If she can get takedowns, she could probably
6:36
control a lot of the fight, maybe even get a submission along the way.
6:42
But I don't know that I agree with her being as big of a
6:44
favorite as she is because I think Cornhole is probably the better striker of the
6:47
two. I think she's more powerful al on the feet as well. And
6:50
then in her last fight, she was taken down multiple times and controlled for
6:56
like eight minutes of the fight, but that was against a striker in Jocelyn
6:59
Edwards. I kind of thought that corn Holl was going to be the more
7:00
likely wrestler in that fight, so I feel like it kind of caught her
7:03
by surprise, where in this one, she's gonna have to know she needs
7:08
the stuff takedowns, and if she could stuff takedowns, I think she's live
7:11
to win the fight. I think she's gonna need a knockout for any real
7:14
ceiling, but any win at sixty nine hundred maybe could cut it this week.
7:18
I don't know. I think she would probably score at least ten X
7:24
if she does get a win here. I was actually I thought she lost
7:27
her last fight. I was like, I saw that she had a win
7:30
on the fight log, and I was like, wait, that's not right.
7:31
She lost that fight. But a bad decision win, but she scored
7:36
seventy four points and like the worst she could have done. I'm sure I
7:41
mentioned the Johnson Huedwards fight. You remember that last week when we were talking
7:44
robberies, this was one of them I was thinking of. I mean,
7:46
it was just pretty bad. Yeah, yeah, I forgot all about it
7:49
and just going through I had to go check all the sights. I was
7:51
like, holy shit, she did win. Yeah, because I usually don't
7:54
listen to the decision at the end when I'm rewatching fights. But yeah,
7:59
I think Mullin can have really the same success. If she's able to get
8:01
takedowns like Jocelyn Edwards can. She can control the fight for ten plus minutes,
8:05
maybe she can get four plus takedowns here as well and score one hundred
8:09
plus in a decision. So, you know, somewhat low ownership, you
8:13
know, pivot wise. Anyways, from the people that she's around, I'm
8:16
a little bit interested, but I do prefer to go up to walk her
8:22
or down to like a Bajamondez like the field probably will as well, so
8:26
I'll just be mixing her in and then Cornwall at sixty nine hundreds. She's
8:31
just so cheap that I don't want to ex her out of my pool because
8:33
I think she's alive to win this fight. But I think that there's so
8:37
many live dogs, there's so many dogs that I like more than her as
8:39
well more likely to win more of a ceiling, so I might not get
8:43
to her. But I'm also confine with anywhere like between zero and ten percent,
8:48
I'd say, yeah, I agree with a lot of yourself. My
8:50
preferred play is Mullins for the thing like this fight's gonna be one of the
8:54
lowest owned combined ownerships on the car and ninety three hundred people w or other.
8:58
Go Ama Munde is for cheaper, They're rather go walk Er, I
9:01
think for more expensive, rather go Brendan Allen in the main events like she
9:05
is, we don't. We have our twenty four percent right now. I'm
9:07
not gonna say all the ownerships as we go, because they are at shippination
9:11
dot com. If you're following, they're up in solver, they're up on
9:15
the site projections ownership, all that good stuff, so you can check it
9:18
if you're a member part of the premium contents. But I mean it's pretty
9:22
obvious, at least in my eyes. Other people like the bomb Mundees,
9:26
the Allen's, the Walkers, Campbell, Charlie cambelieve in rather play them over
9:31
the Woman's fighter with the worst inside the distance prop heavily favor to go to
9:35
decision. She has wrestling upside, like you said the striker took Cornell down
9:39
and controlled their like most of Mullins wants it on the mat, like I
9:41
think she control minutes on the mat here, and you know wrestling that means
9:46
decision or finished. For Mullins. You're telling me she has one hundred point
9:48
upside. I'll take that for sure, and then Cornell on the other side,
9:52
I'm fading. I totally agree with everything you said, like everyone's live.
9:56
If I had one hundred and fifty teams, I probably I don't xcelt
10:00
anyone before, like I make all my stuff, Like maybe if I three
10:05
percent of Cornhole, I would then cross their off. But the reason,
10:07
like you said, there's just so many live dogs, like I'd rather Chris
10:11
Shoschiagos, even though I love Boom Moon Days at least, but Giagos are
10:15
getting a lot of leverage off of chalk her Baha Moundez, You're not getting
10:18
too much leverage off of Melissa Mullins. I think she'll be on her back
10:22
a decent amount. Like, I just don't love the upside for plus seven
10:24
hundred to finish, like you're hoping for a seventy five point win. It
10:30
feels like which isn't even guaranteed to be enough. So yeah, it's Mullins
10:33
or nothing for me in this one. I'll be using Mullins in chalkier lineups.
10:37
But I do agree with you that in a vacuum there's other better fighters
10:41
in that nine K range. What's going on, David my Man? Saggy?
10:45
What's going on? You? Like chef a Peaks price tag? Like,
10:48
yeah, I do too. A lot of live good dogs down below
10:50
those two are Guada, Chris Curtis, Like you go to Moneyline Valley,
10:56
Jermaine Randomy Like a lot of these people call THEO. A lot of these
11:00
seven K fighters, not necessarily. Some of them have good time, big
11:03
time upside. Some of them have good money line equity for their price.
11:07
So yeah, no Cornill for me, Mullins. We'll keep it rolling though.
11:11
Next fight on the card, we have Dylan Bucker Caesar Almeda minus one
11:16
point thirty four is buck plus one fourteen is Caesar Almeida. This fights plus
11:22
one ten to finish, plus two twenty five inside the distance for Bucka plus
11:26
three twenty five for Almeida eighty five hundred and seventy seven hundred clash of styles.
11:31
Bucca wants to wrestle, Caesar Almeida wants to keep it on the feed.
11:35
Who do you think wins out? Yeah, I think it's a pretty
11:39
good fight to target just because of the clash of styles. Bud's gonna win
11:43
to wrestle, and if he can wrestle and win the fight, he has
11:46
a chance to score over ten x to that eighty five hundred dollars salary.
11:50
Even in a decision win. Maybe he could even just control it so much
11:54
on the ground, land some little shots to where Almeda can't can't defend himself,
11:58
and the rev steps in. But I do think most of the finishing
12:01
equity in this one's gonna be on the Almeta side. I think he's got
12:03
a huge striking advantage in this one. He's a kickboxer, and he fought
12:07
Alex Pereira three times back in the day, like ten years ago, and
12:11
he went one to two against Alex Perera, it's pretty damn good. And
12:16
then two of the fights that I watched of his MMA fights, he just
12:20
starts the dude in the first round. I think he's got big power in
12:22
his hands, obviously legs as well, but I think he can crack but
12:28
and knock him out. Score one hundred plus as an underdog. So I'm
12:31
interested in both sides, but more interested in al Maid. I'm gonna get
12:35
the upset in this one. Al Mada by Tko. I think he could
12:39
also win a striking based decision, not get there, I mean, but
12:43
still a win. And then in his Contender Series fight, he controlled the
12:50
fight on the ground for over a full round, so I don't think he
12:54
would be dead in the water, at least if he can get takedowns of
12:58
his own or if he can get a reversal on this wrestler. I don't
13:01
think that Bukat would have anything to offer off his back. All that we
13:05
are looking for in Budkeez for wrestling and top control time. I think that's
13:09
all we want from him, and if he can get it done, he
13:11
probably scores well. But I like the kickbox earning this one. I think
13:13
he's got a bigger advantage on the feet than Budka does on the ground.
13:16
Yeah, I like that mid lead was a little on the Bucker side because
13:20
of I mean the line movement. So this line completely flipped Bucka open plus
13:24
one forty five minus one seventy five for Almeida or minus one seventy Now it's
13:31
a minus one thirty five plus one fifteen. Roughly. I usually sided with
13:35
the wrestler and the grappler, and like I saw him made a stuck on
13:37
his back and contender series. If you think he can, I'd be surprised
13:41
to see him landa takedown if he does get a reversal. I totally agree
13:45
with you on that, and he definitely has power. I will admit though,
13:48
I was a little surprised to see Bucke plus two twenty five inside the
13:52
distance and Caesar plus three twenty five because I do agree with you. It
13:56
feels like what is that banking on a Bukka tko down below? Like a
14:01
plus three fifty s. I don't really see Bucka. I haven't really seen
14:05
much from him. He's more like control time than like fishing for submissions.
14:07
But inside the distance prop says otherwise any thoughts on it almost just seems to
14:15
me like just the narrative. We got a wrestler going against a kickboxer.
14:18
But when I when I watched from Budka, I just wasn't very impressed with
14:22
his wrestling. And yeah, I don't think that I made is gonna get
14:24
a takedown, but maybe like Budka shoots for one and I made a stuff
14:28
stating just on top something like that. Yeah, the lu K Buckley thing,
14:33
I mean, what was Luk doing? You see that whole card.
14:37
I passed out super early. I drink. I started drinking at like noon
14:39
for a family Easter, and I got home at the start of the car
14:41
and I was like, I'm passing out. There's no way I'm making it
14:43
up to like two am for this stuff called it And I missed the entire
14:48
thing. Haven't gone back and watched it. But yeah, and this one
14:50
I think I made as one of my favorite, you know, top three
14:54
hundred dollars on the card, probably I like it. Yeah, definitely live.
14:56
And so in the sleigh point, I my preferred place slightly is Bukka
15:01
not a strong lean, but I love the Almeta side because you can go
15:05
eight hundred bug In Bukka, take Bucka out, go Almeida and you're not
15:09
giving up much. So I like it even more now that Marley is on
15:11
that side. A little bit, but a solid fight to attack and I
15:15
will put in from the start. I prefer stars and scrubs a little more
15:18
than I do the mid tier bill this week. I think there is some
15:22
live dogs down below mid tier eighty five seventy seven hundred. I'm in different
15:26
with some of these mid tier fights. Maybe that changes the bit. Like
15:30
that Falcal who you go fight on under the best redon the chef a fight
15:33
later, not the strongest lean stars and scrubs, though I do know I
15:37
like the high nine K range dere Gattaz. The Chris Curtis is the peaks
15:43
of the world, so just wanted to bring that up. Keep it rolling
15:46
next fight on the card. Another what I'm looking at is a class of
15:48
SCIOs Gene Matsumoto taking on Dan Arguetta minus one sixty three Matsumoto plus one forty
15:54
three dan Arguetta plus one ninety for this fight to FINISHSMO to plus three to
16:00
fifteen Arguetta plus four point fifty. I'll start it off eighty eight hundred and
16:04
seventy four hundred faiting Matsumoto. I always try to have four fades. He
16:10
is one of them. Dan Arguena, I like a lot. I mean,
16:12
we're looking Matsimota is a talented, well rounded fighter. I'm looking at
16:17
it. Clash the styles, though, because Ourgueta wants to wrestle Wressell Wressell.
16:21
It's easiest, and Matsimota keeps it on the feet, not like our
16:25
Guetta's lost. But we saw Miles Johns piece him up a bit when he
16:27
can stuff the takedowns. I mean, man, give me Al Guetta all
16:30
day. Though seventy four hundred, he legit has as much upside as anybody
16:34
on this slate. He wants to chain wrestle for days. You look at
16:38
his record one, one and two like that Ronnie Lawrence. One was a
16:41
win, Miles Johns lost, you can say two and two. But he
16:45
popped for the good stuff after. I don't know exactly what it was.
16:48
He popped for something. I like our Guetta's pace. Matsimoto fourteen to er
16:52
making his USC debut, though there's some unknowns. Kid might be good,
16:56
but give me the price difference. I like Argweta a lot, and I
17:00
don't love Matsumoto because he's gonna be low owned. If you want to play
17:03
in chalk your car or chalk your lineups. However, I don't like playing
17:07
strikers are gonna be defending takedowns for fifteen minutes. It's hard to like,
17:11
get off your own volume. You're always thinking about it. So I think
17:15
he's early KO or boss kindess. So yeah, what it for me?
17:18
What about you? Yeah? I think I just fully agree with that.
17:22
I also think that Matsumoto could get a submission in the first round and score
17:26
ninety plus. I think he has a black belt in BJJ, so he's
17:30
got the dangerous submission potential. Definitely going to be the better striker, but
17:34
yeah, striking based decision is not going to get him there, especially if
17:37
he's defending takedowns for seven minutes or on his back for seven minutes. So
17:42
I'm I think I agree with the fade on Matsumoto. If we're looking for
17:47
fades, which I usually am, he's probably one of my top three fades
17:51
on the card, and then on the opposite side is definitely one of my
17:53
top three favorites, I mean underdogs on the card because he does have to
17:57
wrestle, and if he is going to win this fight, it's gonna come
18:00
on the ground. It could be you know, three to eight takedowns,
18:03
ten plus minutes of control time in this one. He's also got submission potential
18:07
as well of his own. But the one weakness I'd say that I saw
18:14
from Matsumoto was that he can be taken down and held against the cage and
18:18
held on the ground for a long periods of time. And that's exactly what
18:22
arg what is going to look to do. So give me the underdog to
18:23
just grind out two rounds and I think he's got a better chance at scoring
18:29
one hundred points than he does sub ten x in a win. So he
18:34
might be my favorite underdog on the card. I love it. I like
18:37
it too, And he's gonna get some decent ownership down there. But he's
18:41
one hundred more than Chris Curtis, Like, you know, Chris Curtis is
18:44
gonna be higher on with the five rounds, the narrative that he already beat
18:48
him, I mean even a right, you agree, I know you agree.
18:51
Actually looking at our ownership I'm not going to say it out loud,
18:52
even with the worse money, Yeah, I had to say it. Even
18:56
with a worse money line, I still Curtis to be higher on Yeah,
19:00
and I like them both, I do. I will say that run down
19:03
line minus two twenty now both made weight, but Alan'm taking a little money
19:08
interesting. We'll keep it rolling though. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out,
19:12
watching live, watching on playback, houpe y'all had a good week ready for
19:17
the weekend. Plenty of money to be made if you want to join us
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at the Nation again, weekly options, no promo code, no discord if
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on, MLB, going on, NASCAR going on. That's a lot of
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money out there in the DraftKings Fan Duel Lobby Hoop fifteen gets you fifteen percent
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off at Chip the Nation. Get in the discord for sure if you do
19:44
join any of the monthly, six month or annual packages. Let's keep it
19:48
rolling. Next fight on the card Pierre Rodriguez Cynthia Calvio eighty four hundred,
19:52
Rodriguez seventy eight hundred Calvio minus one thirty Rodriguez plus one ten Cynthia plus two
19:59
four already the most likely fight to go the distance on the card plus four
20:03
or fifteen inside of the distance for Caldo plus four forty for Rodriguez. I'll
20:08
just say I'll be short and sweet. I'm gonna run it back from last
20:11
last fight. We just talked about. Fade the favorite, give me the
20:15
underdog. I prefer the six hundred savings. I'll pick Calvio as a pick.
20:19
I just I don't see Rodriguez scoring in this fight. Like she over
20:23
three takedowns per fifteen minutes so far in her USC fights. Caldo has good
20:27
takedown defense, though what twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen was the last time she's
20:32
been taken down. I think she can maybe even get a takedown. She
20:36
impressed me in the Loopy fight outstruck Loopy over a Hunter significant Rice got a
20:40
takedown. I just I think this line at worst should be a pick them
20:45
or a coin flip. I'm getting six hundred dollars savings. I think more
20:48
wrestling upside. Tell me if I'm wrong, because if you just look at
20:52
the numbers, it'll be show Rodriguez side. But I mean, like the
20:56
strength of competition night and day, Caldo overweight fading Pierre Rodriguez, what about
21:02
you? Yeah, again, I agree, I don't know if I'm gonna
21:06
fade Rodriguez. I think since she's only eighty four hundred, I do think
21:11
she's gonna play for ten x plus. She should be the better striker in
21:14
this one. More TKO upside as well, and she could mix in a
21:18
few takedowns. But yeah, Calvio's got good takedown defense. I think that
21:22
Calvio would do a lot more in top control if she can get takedowns,
21:26
and she's just more dangerous on the ground in my opinion as well. But
21:30
yeah, she's gonna have to get takedown so she's gonna win the fight,
21:33
and she's gonna have to control a good amount of the fight. So yeah,
21:36
at seventy eight hundred, if she gets a win here, she's gonna
21:38
say drawn dead striking. That Loopy performance impressed me, draw Dad, but
21:45
I would I would think I'd take Rodriguez and a boxing match over Loopy too.
21:51
Yeah, but yeah, I mean no, not trial on dead,
21:53
and she could put up decent volume while she's on the feet too, So
21:56
I just expect her to score over ten x if she does get a win
21:59
here. And I think you're right with a pick them line. It does
22:02
look like a pretty pick them fight to me. Or she has the edge
22:04
on the ground, Rodriguez has the edge on the feet. Yeah, give
22:08
me the grappler in that situation. So Calvio leverage play. But I won't
22:12
fade Rodriguez. I'll just say underweight. Yeah, makes sense. I'm yeah.
22:17
I'm trying to always have four fades. So far we talked about three
22:19
of mine in Cornell, Rodriguez, and Matsimoto, so we got three of
22:26
the four. Hopefully I put in the slave plan two. I don't always
22:30
run up this way, but a lot of early fades. That means my
22:33
night could be over early, be sad. And we got two college basketball
22:37
games. Have some money on Yukon there. You can always bet later,
22:41
but gonna be scary early with all these fades for sure. What's going on?
22:45
G Kit. I hope you're doing well, man, Always good to
22:47
see you keep it going. Next fight on the car, Big Marley.
22:49
This is the short notice replacement. Victor Hugo was supposed to fight Ol tang
22:55
Lee, Incepts Pedro Falco on what on Wednesday? Three days notice or something
23:00
crazy short notice? Only minus one thirty is silver, though plus one ten
23:06
is Pedro. My eighty two hundred and eight k is the pricing. I
23:08
don't see anything on fight odds for inside the Distance. I don't know if
23:11
you like saw it on any specific book. I see under one and a
23:15
half though, and plus one fifty five, so seeing under one and a
23:19
half is nice to see. I mean, man, I'll throw it to
23:23
you right away in this one, Falco look good to me on the tape.
23:26
I wasn't able to watch you go dangerous on the ground like. This
23:30
is one of my favorite fights in the mid tier. Was this one in
23:33
the buck all made a fight I went on made to fight my first favorite.
23:36
This is my second favorites. But I want yeah, I was kind
23:40
of torn on this. I want you to tell me you were torn too.
23:42
Yeah, this is my most torn fight on the card. Yeah.
23:45
I just have no real lean on who's gonna win. Both guys are good
23:49
grapplers, but I give the grappling edge to Hugo in this one. We
23:55
definitely don't want a fifteen minute striking match, that's for sure. If it's
23:57
a fifteen minute striking match, we can just ex both sides out here.
24:00
But Hugo does have power on the feet. He could land one one punch
24:04
knockout. And but I don't know. I mean, I feel like I
24:08
probably favor Falco in a fifteen minute striking match, just yeah. And then
24:14
Falco's got big time power too, Like, but he was on the ground
24:17
where he showed most of his power. I think it was Contender Series.
24:19
He had a knockout. He was in full mount and got a knockout.
24:26
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, you gotta fight after that. That's right
24:29
somewhere else. Uh. But then there was one on the regional scene before
24:32
that where like he is chest to chest on the ground with this dude hitting
24:34
him with these little four inch punches and he knocks the guy out cold with
24:37
that. So I was like, I was like, you know what's gonna
24:41
happen here. Hugo's gonna go for like a leg lock or ankle lock,
24:45
and he's gonna get knocked out in top control by this Falco guy. So
24:48
that's what I picked up. But I don't really have any real lean like
24:52
handicapping wise, it's a it's a pick them for me, so just I'd
24:56
side with the underdog there as well. But Hugo is a very dangerous grappler.
25:00
He will shoot for takedowns early and often as well. He he'll attempt
25:04
to chain wrestle. He's not a great wrestler, but he's really good.
25:07
Once he gets the fight to the mat, he will grab for legs as
25:10
well. But yeah, man, I just don't know what the heck's gonna
25:14
happen in this fight, So I just went with my prediction as the TKO
25:17
from Falco. I just see him knocking him out on the ground as he's
25:22
trying to get some sort of leg submission. This one, I literally said
25:26
pretty much the same thing as you have. I don't know what. I
25:29
don't have a lean on who's gonna win this fight. I don't have a
25:30
lien on how it's gonna play out. It's kind of like the chef a
25:33
fight. I'm so torn on both of these. But I also kind of
25:37
we talked about earlier. I put in the sleigh plan. You don't need
25:40
to take stands on every single fight, like I'm gonna be around the field
25:44
on both of these guys because I don't want to fight. I don't feel
25:47
confident in determining my night when I feel and making stands on other fights.
25:52
Like both these guys have one hundred plus point offside. This fight could be
25:55
a snoozer if it just stays on the feet, like I think, the
25:56
range of outcomes are all over the place. I'm also just not if I
26:00
have eight fifteen percent of one of these guys, are thirty five percent of
26:03
one of these guys. But I love everything else, Like I'm rolling with
26:07
it. It's kind of how I'm going with this fight. So I'm prioritizing
26:11
getting my exposures right in some other fights. Whatever kind of lands in this
26:15
fight is kind of what I'm gonna go with. I'm gonna keep it that
26:17
way. I'll say Falco is my preferred play because man, watching I was
26:22
really impressed. I think he's the better striker. I think it's hardial looks
26:26
solid. Now he's taking on a couple of days notice, which is always
26:29
a concern, But it's like, why would you sign on the dotted line
26:32
if you weren't ready. Maybe he just really needs to come to the UFC.
26:34
I don't know though, but I feel good about Falco, not just
26:38
I feel good about him. I like him for plus one ten. He's
26:41
definitely my preferred betting side, and I think he's an interesting lie Beck because
26:45
Hugo can slow down. Well know how this fight goes. I think early
26:48
if you can get it to the mat or Falcon and stuff's just stay on
26:52
top, be the better striker, et cetera. Yeah, Falca of the
26:56
pick, not a strong lean on this fight. Keep it going. Next
27:00
fight on the car the third of three women's fights. Yeah, third of
27:03
three. Norman Dumont Jermaine Durandomy minus one fourth minus one twenty four. Norman
27:10
Dumont Durandomy plus one oh four plus two to fifteen for this fight to finish
27:15
Dumont plus four hundred, Durandomy plus four fifteen. I put this fight as
27:22
underweight, but both girls are gonna be low and anyway, I'm not gonna
27:26
cross them off because the case for Duran Durandomy seventy six hundred and plus one
27:32
oh four, like this fight could go off as a coin flip. She's
27:34
taken money all week minus one ninety just a couple of days ago, minus
27:40
like all week, Dumont has gone down, Durandomy has taken money. So
27:45
a seventy six hundred dollars win, I don't know, eighty points? Could
27:48
that be enough? Maybe? Now I don't like her upside though she's low
27:52
volume. Dumont's gonna be looking for Takedown's clinch control, et cetera. So
27:56
I think she's a four play. Seventy six eighty isn't enough maybe, so
28:02
I'll keep her in the pool. Dumont, She's gonna be very very low
28:06
owned. She likes to wrestle drandom How you beat her, you control her
28:10
on the mat, you take her down in talkie lineups. I don't think
28:12
ten percent Dumont or something is the craziest play. However, there's so many
28:18
other better fights I like on this card. I think the most likely outcome
28:21
the winner scores seventy five in a bus, but they'll be very lowly low
28:26
owned. I can make a case for both. Durandomy for the money line
28:29
value, Dumont very low owned. If she wins wrestling upside, maybe,
28:33
but yeah, not a fight out like it or same. I'll probably be
28:38
in like the ten to twenty percent range on both sides of this one.
28:44
Dumont, it's gonna be my pick, just because I mean GDR has been
28:48
out for like four years. She just had a baby last year as well,
28:52
which is never really a good thing coming back from that. Uh.
28:55
And then Dumont's gonna have a clear edge. If she can get one takedown,
28:57
she probably hangs out there for the rest of the rund. I mean,
29:00
GDR did submit Julianapena with a guillotine, which is impressive, so she
29:06
can do that the pain that she could do that to Dumont, But I
29:08
would think most likely if this fight's on the ground, it's Dumont grinding her
29:11
out for her, however long it is, once she gets that takedown.
29:15
But GDR is gonna have a huge striking edge in this one. A striking
29:18
decision from GDR is not gonna cut it. She's not a high volume striker,
29:22
so I think I max her ownership at her inside the distance line,
29:26
which right now is plus four hundred, so twenty percent. That's probably my
29:30
max, but I'd prefer less than that. But I do think she's alive
29:33
to knock out Dumont. Dumont was knocked out by Megan Anderson in her debut.
29:40
GDR is way scarier than Dan Anderson. She's way better than Anderson.
29:44
So I think that GDR is very not very in play. But I think
29:47
she is live, and she's live for a knockout. Yeah, but if
29:52
she doesn't get a knockout, she's probably spending time on her back not scoring.
29:56
And then if she can win, you know, six to eight minutes
29:59
on the feet, she probably scores like sixty points or worse. So yeah,
30:04
prefer like ten percent or so GDR, and then Dumont's my preferred side
30:08
because if she can just grab a takedown early in each round, she can
30:14
do thirteen plus minutes to top control here with three takedowns and score ninety one
30:18
hundred plus points at low ownership. So she's gonna be my preferred leverage play
30:22
if there was one. But still I probably want like twenty percent max to
30:26
her because I think her most likely ceiling is like ninety points ninety points probably,
30:32
I don't know, it might get it done, I don't know.
30:33
I just think she's similar to like a Melissa Dixon, where I guess I'd
30:37
rather save the money and get Dumont. If I'm just comparing the two,
30:41
but she also has a much tougher matchup at the same time, so I
30:45
don't know. It's another tough one ten to twenty percent range, though it
30:48
seems about right. Yeah, we see it the same. I'll max both
30:51
their ownerships. I'll cap it, but I'll keep them in the pool,
30:53
use them a chalk your lineup. So now I will say Dumont's coming down
30:56
from one forty five. She was forced to rely is no. One forty
31:00
five division. She made weight though, waiting at one thirty six, so
31:03
I was keeping a close eye on that. Good to see. And yeah,
31:07
every fighter so far this stepped on the scale has made Waight still waiting
31:11
for probably roughly ten or something, though fingers crossed we keep off all thirteen.
31:17
Let's get to the next fight on the car thirteen to talk about Alex
31:19
Morono Court McGee minus two ninety Morono plus two forty five Court McGee minus one
31:26
oh five for this fight to finish all the finish equity plus one hundred for
31:30
Morono inteledisance plus fourteen hundred for Court McGee on bed online. I don't know
31:36
if that's right, but MANM yeah, I guess I'll throw a tea right
31:41
away in this one. What do you see in this big Marley two old
31:44
Vets, thirty nine year old Court, thirty three year old Morono. Yeah.
31:48
I mentioned last week for the Right that I cannot get Morono fights right,
31:53
so I'm picking them here. I mean ninety two hundred. But he
31:57
has to get a finished and I don't think he's a likely wrestler in this
32:01
one. I actually think McGee probably would be more likely to land multiple takedowns
32:06
in this fight, but I think he's more likely to get a submission.
32:07
Even if McGee is going for the takedown. I think that the guillotine is
32:12
very live, and if Marono does go for takedowns, I think he could
32:15
submit McGee on the ground. McGee never has been submitted those. I don't
32:17
know how likely that is. It's just that he's gotten nasty guillotine. Really,
32:22
but McGee coming off of two knockout losses, both in the first round.
32:25
I think Marono's in play for the knockout as well. He is like
32:30
plus basically pick him to get a finish in this one. So, man,
32:37
you don't know, get the round one or do you think round two
32:39
would be fine? That was my question for you. He lands five significant
32:45
strikes, I'd assume no takedowns because I agree with you. I think Court's
32:47
getting the takedowns. If so, you think that's enough, he could land
32:52
volume so I could see round two being knockdown. Yeah, if he doesn't
32:55
get a finish though he's not he's not even scoring ten I don't think he
33:00
hasn't really has much of a chance at all ten X. I think he
33:02
had he beat Reese McKee or something and scored a ton of points in a
33:06
decision, but McGee's not Reese McKee. And then on the other side,
33:10
like McGee, maybe he could grind out this fight. He's somewhat live for
33:14
a win. I think that the line's a little bit wide, but he's
33:17
like a corn hole to me. I just prefer other underdogs more. I
33:22
think that he doesn't really have much of a ceiling. If he wins,
33:24
it's probably seventy to eighty points max almost for him. Yeah, give me
33:30
Morono, and then I almost hope that I might streak of being wrong on
33:36
this guy continues because I think I'm gonna be underweight just to this fight as
33:38
a whole, but especially Morono. I just would rather pay up for other
33:43
people, even Melissa Dixon in my opinion, and hope that Morono doesn't get
33:46
a finish or that it's late enough where he doesn't score. Well. Yeah,
33:50
I'm just never impressed enough with this guy to think that he's gonna blow
33:52
me away on DraftKings. So I'll probably be at least half the field,
33:55
maybe less on Morono. If not, you know, xit amount of a
34:00
twenty or last pool. Yeah, I get yeah, I like all the
34:04
multiple others in the nine k range. More, I'm still gonna have some
34:07
because I mean, Court's been knocked out in the first round his last two
34:10
fights Jeremiah Wells, and I meant that Matt Brown fight. Matt Brown's knocking
34:15
you out in the first I'm getting a little scared about your chin. Thirty
34:20
nine Rono throws volume, so I in the first round prop plus three three
34:24
five Rona wins A plus three hundred plus three hundred now, okay, So
34:30
it took a little money. And when I'm playing Morono, I agree.
34:32
I like a lot of the other Bob moon Days Allens of the world.
34:36
I even like Mullins More, et cetera. But if Court McGee's changes.
34:40
That bad first round knockout I think is in place, so I'll play something
34:44
for that. And like you said, I think if someone wrestles it is
34:46
Court. Maybe he's just not liking on the feet and that Gilly is absolutely
34:51
nasty, Like it could be locked in right away. Now you want that
34:53
at the end of the first round, because you're not gonna if he gets
34:57
it in a minute, a minute and five seconds, you ain't. You
35:00
ain't get You're getting ninety three and you're gonna be really mad. But I
35:04
don't like Court for the same just like Cornall, I just prefer the other
35:07
dogs down there, like Giago's at least I get more Yago's at least I
35:10
get more leverage off of ab Moundez. Then I do like a Morono type
35:15
or something like that. Ar Gwena is down there. Kurtis, we talked
35:20
about Calvia, Like, yeah, I just I'm not getting a Court while
35:22
I do think the line is wide though you said that too, right,
35:25
Yeah, Like this line feels a little wide. Still we're saying Court's already
35:29
gone, is what this line's saying. After that loss, which if he
35:32
doesn't get knocked out, he could put up a little fight. Yeah,
35:36
and like a guy like Morono is just not a guy with a lot of
35:38
knockout power. So it's it's really fading Court's chin at that point when you're
35:43
giving Morono the odds that he has for it. But it also wouldn't shock
35:47
me to see this, I mean, never been submitted before in like forty
35:51
fights or some shit. I mean, it's pretty damn press. If he
35:54
is shoot for takedowns, that guillotine is going to be in play every single
35:58
time. So yeah, see it either way from Morono. I don't know
36:01
what. I never know what they were to do with Morono on DraftKings.
36:04
We'll see. I'll probably let the souliver figure it out for me. I'll
36:07
be underweight this fight in general as well, though definitely Yeah, I agree.
36:13
I appreciate those words, Matt. I hope you're doing well. That
36:15
is very nice of you. Let's keep it going, absolute banger fight.
36:19
I actually shouldn't say that. I shouldn't say I won't be underweight because it's
36:22
gonna have a lot of ownership. But if I you don't want to ignore
36:24
Charlie Campbell Trevor Peak minus one sixty three Campbell plus one forty three Trevor Peak
36:30
minus four hundred for this fight to finish the most likely on the card Campbell
36:35
minus one twenty five Trevor Peak plus two fifteen Campbell opened minus two hundred minus
36:42
Line's gone over the place minus two hundred. The open got down like minus
36:45
two thirty, not even last week, and Trevor Peak's got some money ever
36:50
since then, even like this morning minus one seventy five earlier today minus one
36:57
seventy minus sixty sixty three April second minus two ten, Like Trevor Peak's taking
37:01
some money throughout the week. And it makes sense to me because it looks
37:06
like a high variant striking match for as long as it lasts, like these
37:10
guys are gonna be throwing bombs. Campbell, Moore technical Peak way more wild.
37:15
But Peak's got all the durability. I mean Charlie campb Yeah, Charlie
37:20
Campbell. That Contender Series fight was absolutely nasty. I mean, just a
37:23
war back and forth, like he can be cracked Peak and crack these guys
37:27
standing on the on the feet and bang. I think Campbell is a rightful
37:30
favorite, the better all a wrong makes martial artists. But I mean Peak's
37:34
always live as a dog, just a jam fight though it's all Peak fights
37:37
are always great. It's gonna be very high owned anyway, but I'll be
37:40
playing plenty of both. No no hot take over here. I think ownership
37:45
is kind of efficient on this fight. Yeah, it's my favorite fight on
37:49
the card. No just watching wise and raftkings wise because it should be a
37:52
barn burner fight. Ins in round one basically pick him like plus one ten
37:58
right now, that's pretty solid and it can go both ways. But I
38:01
do think Campbell's just better and more likely to get the early knockout. But
38:07
I mean he needs he almost needs it. It should be a crazy paced
38:12
fight, so even the second round could be okay, especially if he's trying
38:15
to mix in takedowns. But I think that Peaks are more likely wrestler in
38:17
this one. He could get a crazy volume, first paced knockout as well.
38:22
So like Peak's more likely to completely break the card with one hundred and
38:27
ten points at seventy two hundred, but he's also going to get a lot
38:30
of ownership, So I'm probably just going to be close to the field on
38:35
Peak, maybe get a little bit of leverage there. But my preferred play
38:37
is going to be Campbell. I will get leverage on him. I'm thinking
38:42
I'll probably get him in about half of my lineups. He's minus one twenty
38:45
five right now to win inside the distance, and I think any inside the
38:49
distance win from him is going to really compete for the optimal lineup. It's
38:52
just nine K like we're paying for it. So it's tough. But I
38:58
like when we're sorting by salary, like him more than Dixon, Mullins.
39:00
I guess I still like him more than Morono. And then you got the
39:05
three. We got Walker, Baha, Mondes and Allen right around him.
39:07
Those are gonna be the chalky ones along with Campbell. So I just think
39:12
everyone's mixing all four of them in. I could see him outscoring all of
39:15
them. So yeah, I don't know. I mean, maybe maybe fifty
39:21
to sixty five percent of Campbell in my lineups, just because it's my favorite
39:25
fight to target. I want to be close to all In. Maybe I
39:28
go sixty on him, thirty on Peak something like that, But how do
39:31
like it's got to be a Campbell decision win or like a late Campbell finish
39:37
that makes this fight not on the optimal right, you said Peak and wrestle.
39:40
Maybe Peak wrestles in round one, Campbell knocks him out. In round
39:44
two, Campbell puts up one oh five, Alan puts up one twelve,
39:51
Bob Moones puts up one fifteen. Like, there's way more pass you need
39:53
a Campbell win. It almost feels like it's hard to see a Peak win
39:58
not being optimal. Sure at that price, yea the most solid, Like
40:04
if this underdog wins, he's on the optimal line. Feels good too,
40:07
are Getta feels good too, Curtis feels solid. I don't know I'm taking
40:14
I would say if they both win with their best performance, Peak's gonna outscore
40:17
them. Yeah. Probably, But I'm picking Pek to lose and I'm picking
40:22
Arguada to win, so I probably have more. I will have more Alguida.
40:28
Yeah, No, it's definitely an interesting fight. Again, if I
40:30
have sixty percent Peak and thirty Campbell or you flip fop and I sixty Campbell,
40:36
thirty Peak and I like everything else, I really don't care. I
40:38
don't have a strong lean on this fight. I want plenty. I'm not
40:42
making a rule to jam this fight or like to make a rule exactly one,
40:46
just because it's gonna be eighty five percent combined or eighty percent on anyway,
40:51
it's gonna be way up there. I don't think there's enough leverage to
40:54
go. But if I was only playing three to five lineups, I would
40:57
have one a Peak or Campbell probably in every lineup. Mainly just twenty and
41:00
above is when I'm not going to make that hard rule. Only played a
41:04
couple. I'm definitely though, getting this fight. Oh yeah, Nate,
41:07
what's going on? Definitely excited for next week. UFC three hundred Masters week,
41:13
so much money to be made next week. DK did tweak though I
41:17
will say a little bit thirty dollars for the main GPP hurtful did not need
41:22
to go all the way up to thirty dollars, but awesome card. Indeed,
41:25
very excited try and make some money today this week though for bigger bank
41:30
roll next week. That was the main card opener. Absolute banger. There
41:34
going to an interesting fight here. Walter Walker, Johnny Walker's brother, making
41:38
his UFC debut, taking on Lucasbreski plus two or minus two twenty five Walker
41:45
plus one ninety Bresky minus two hundred for the fight to finish minus one thirty
41:50
inside the distance for Walker, plus four seventy five for Breski opened, minus
41:54
four hundred Walker. Now it's minus two twenty five Breski and a lot of
42:00
people's dog throughout. I mean inside of this is probab too open minus three
42:05
twenty five, minus two hundred now people like Cembreski, people like some overs.
42:10
Walker, the highest owned price or the highest fight, highest price fighter
42:14
on the card because of the line movement at ninety four hundred, still gonna
42:17
get some ownership, But I think Brendan All will be higher owned. You
42:22
mentioned Campbell, Baham Moon days will be pretty similar ownership. I'll say I'm
42:27
on Bresky for DFS. I'm not necessarily saying I'm picking him to win,
42:30
but like a thirty eight percent owned Walker or something around there, a twelve
42:36
percent own Breski in a sloppy heavyweight fights like, I just don't. I'm
42:40
not sure Walker's any good at the end of the day. Breski's awful.
42:44
We do at least know that. But I mean minus two twenty five with
42:47
everyone knowing how bad this Breski dude is. As one of the lowest owned
42:52
fighters of the card with some leverage off of Walker. Yeah, I'm gonna
42:55
be playing some Breski. It's gross, but I'm playing some That's why I'm
42:59
not playing Cornell. I'm not playing courtmy Geeze Rescue will get that ownership.
43:04
I'll play some Walker too, But like I prefer Rob Mundez, I prefer
43:07
Campbell, I prefer Allen, I prefer Alexander Hernandez, maybe even Mullins if
43:13
she's gonna be like ten percent lower owned. So yeah, I'll be more
43:16
overweight to Bresky. And it's gross. You already mentioned Walker in the name
43:20
like five times this show, so I know you're gonna be on the opposite
43:22
side though. I mean, I am gonna be on the opposite the opposite
43:27
side. But I don't really disagree with anything he said. He might suck,
43:30
like his level of competition was not was not impressive at all. And
43:35
I yeah, I didn't even know he was Johnny Walker's brother. I just
43:37
heard that like today or yesterday. I was like what, I was like,
43:39
Yeah, see that resemblance at all? That do not look like each
43:43
other. They don't fight like each other either. Uh yeah I would I
43:46
would not have pigged that one, but he does have one of the higher
43:52
ceilings on the card in my opinion, because he's a big dude, he's
43:55
got power, He's got first round knockout power where he could score one hundred
43:59
plus points that way. Bresky was knocked out in the first round in his
44:04
last fight, and then he also has wrestling too, and he could wrestle
44:08
in all three rounds here, and Bretsky was taking down eight times in his
44:13
fight before the one where he was knocked out in the first round. So
44:15
I just think that a Walker win has a decent chance of scoring well,
44:20
but it has to be wrestling based, or it has to be a knockout,
44:22
because I would think that if it's a fifteen minute striking match, he's
44:25
gonna lose on volume to Bretski. I also think that Bresky could knock him
44:30
out. These guys are big boys. We haven't seen Walker really tested yet,
44:34
so I think Bretsky's in play to break the slate. So I'm fine
44:37
getting overweight Tobresky as the underdog. I just I mean the line is tightened
44:43
up so much at this point though, that I think now the value is
44:45
on Walker. When salaries came out, he was the most expensive. I
44:50
mean, he was the biggest favorite on the card, and I didn't really
44:54
I didn't even disagree with it that much. I was I wasn't like,
44:58
I gotta go bet Bretzky right now now. But now at minus two thirty,
45:02
it's like, if I'm betting this fight, I'm actually taking Walker because
45:06
I do think that he is the more dangerous fighter early in this fight.
45:09
He also went into the fourth round in his last fight, and we've seen
45:13
Bresky slow down, So I don't even know that Bresky has the cardio edge
45:16
in this one. And if Bresky does win, I think his only ceiling
45:22
is the knockout. If he wins a decision here, I don't know how
45:23
many takedowns are coming along with it. If he wins on volume, he's
45:28
still probably flirting with around ten x. So I just think the more likely
45:31
ceilings on Walker in this one. He'll be my preferred play. I will
45:34
get leverage, And I mean, I'm glad with the line movement because it's
45:37
gonna take his ownership down and I would have been cool having his ownership where
45:42
he was priced like three four days ago. Yeah, that makes sense to
45:46
be honest, I'm just more on the Bresky just hoping Walker's his cheeks like
45:51
I'm hoping like in a win, Walker's just awful. Bresky just lands on
45:54
top, like Walker completely gases Reresky somehow lands a big shot, you know
46:00
what I mean? Like he definitely can win a decision. And let's see
46:04
what Resky by decision plus six hundred inside the distance plus four to seventy five,
46:09
So they agree. I agree too. I think Bresky is more likely
46:14
for a finish than the decision decision. I wouldn't love it, but he's
46:16
what sixty eight hundred. You would take any sixty eight hundred win, even
46:20
if it's not optimal. Does Walker get knocked out hilariously like his brother and
46:24
Jamal Hill woul knock knock his brother out just like that as well? Shut
46:28
off the lights, Sweet Dreams coming next week. No, he's never been
46:34
He's never been knocked out though. Four fights left on the car, Big
46:37
mar Ley, four fights left. They nast you. Obaham Munde is Christos
46:42
Giago's minus three twenty baha mounds plus two seventy Jiago's minus two ten for this
46:46
fight to finish minus one fifty for Bajamundez, plus five to fifty for Jiago's
46:52
ninety one hundred seventy one hundred. Baham Mundez is gonna be one of the
46:57
more popular fighters on the card, one of the high biggest favorites, one
47:00
of the best inside the distance props only ninety one hundred, Like he's a
47:06
dollar bigger favorite than Walker we just talked about for three hundred less you dive
47:12
into the fight even more. Giago's is a very fast starter. He slows
47:15
down as the fight goes. Bob wins a bunch of upside. Now I'm
47:19
playing Giago's, I guess, similar to Breski, like I'm not playing Cornwall
47:22
and I'm not playing Cornhall and court McGee because Morono and Mullens will be lower
47:29
owned, then will bomb one Day's, and then Walker will be I think
47:32
so I'd rather play the dog, even though I'm not picking them lower owned
47:37
dog with more leverage off of the chalkier fighter and Giago's man, he can
47:42
get take downs. I think he does get probably a takedown early in this
47:45
fight. I don't think he knocks how bottom one days. You really do
47:49
never know, though, Giago's has some pop, but Giagos can put up
47:52
points in a hurry wrestling plus two seventy, we've seen bigger dogs lose.
47:57
If Giago or bigger dogs win, I think I said that right. You
48:00
know what I'm saying. If Jiago's wins, I think he has a very
48:04
good chance at the optimal because of his style. I'm picking bomb munda second
48:07
round KO. Chiago's some success around one, slows down and round at the
48:12
end Round one KO round two. However, when he wins, he scores
48:15
well, you get a lot of leverage. He's low on et CETERA great
48:20
fight to target Bob Munday's. For me, he's another one where I really
48:24
I'm not sure what I want to do with it, because I do think
48:28
that Bajimond is gonna win, but I have him winning a decision which is
48:34
probably not gonna cut it at ninety one hundred dollars. Like he can strike
48:37
at a high pace, but at ninety one hundred, I don't think he's
48:39
striking at that high of a pace unless he's landing at least a knockdown along
48:43
the way, because he's not going to be shooting for takedowns in this one.
48:46
Jiagos is going to be our more likely wrestler are more dangerous submission artist,
48:51
especially early at least, and then I think he's probably got more one
48:54
shot power in the first round two. So yeah, if Giago's wins his
48:59
fight, I think think he's got a really good chance of breaking the slate
49:00
scoring a hundred points, and if he wins, he's gonna score more than
49:04
ten x. So I'm definitely cool getting some leverage on Giago's for those reasons.
49:08
But yeah, it's kind of all front loaded where his success needs to
49:13
come in the first round because he'll slow down and then Bahamondas will pick it
49:16
up and then it's just not gonna be close on the feet after that.
49:20
I think bajamond could get a late second round, even the third round TKO,
49:24
but just not be enough at ninety one hundred. But he's like minus
49:28
one fifty to win inside the distance it could come in the first round,
49:31
he could score one hundred and ten plus points here, So I don't know.
49:36
I think that the higher his ownership gets, the less I like him,
49:39
and I prefer Walker over him, especially if he's gonna be lower owned
49:44
than Bajamond's because Bajamond is a bigger favorite, He's got a better it is
49:49
he probably will. I think that's relatively close, but I think he probably
49:52
will. I think Bomune is probably the second top top four Pius Ang with
49:59
Allen there, with heart Us there, and I think it probably is him.
50:02
Yeah, I could definitely see that. I get surprised all the time,
50:05
though. You're sharp with the ownership than me, so I would prefer
50:08
to pay one hundred dollars less for Campbell and then at at lower ownership,
50:13
I would rather take Walker because if you're telling me Walker's gonna win, bajam
50:16
Monas is gonna win. I think Walker out scores them more often than not.
50:21
So I'm probably gonna be underweight to bajam Moon days. And then maybe
50:25
you talked me into be an overweight on Jiago's. I would have thought I'd
50:29
be right around the field on him, but yeah, I could see him
50:31
breaking the slate with something early. It's just that I'm not picking him to
50:35
win, so I like other underdogs more so. I don't know what I'm
50:38
gonna do with with him, but I would say ten to twenty five percent.
50:44
I'd be fine with. Yeah, I initially had Giagos as the fade
50:49
as a fade, but yeah, the more I thought about it, I
50:51
was like, that's what I'm trying to just because I feel confident Bob one
50:54
day's like very long. You look at these two at face offs, like
50:58
Bob Moon is his massive for the division, take that defensive solid because he's
51:01
really tall, He's hard to take down. Get up games. Fine.
51:05
Giago's very front loaded, like you said, but when Jiagos wins, it
51:08
just feels like the upside the ceilings there and you get levered. So that's
51:13
what talked me into it. But I prefer so many other dogs more because
51:15
I think they're way more alive for a win if I'm picking against them.
51:20
But kind of like we talked about a lot the past two weeks, circle
51:22
back picking fights. I'd like to target and pass more so than I think
51:27
he loses, so I'm not playing them exactly what this Giago situation is.
51:30
I'll have more than I want because I think he loses, But when he
51:34
doesn't lose, I expect one hundred plus or at least optimum, at least
51:37
on the optimal, I'd be surprised if he very surprised if Jiago's wont and
51:42
he was not on the optimal Yeah, never fights, never scored less than
51:45
ninety two in a UFC win, and I'll take it say that probably holds
51:50
here as well. If he wins. I agree. I agree, good
51:52
stat right there three fights left, Big Marley. I mentioned this fight earlier
51:58
that I was concerned with more Charier taking on, not worried about it.
52:01
I didn't have a good lead read on this fight, so I'm gonna throw
52:04
it to you, Morgan. Charier probably butchered that name. Chefe Meyerskal Jose
52:08
Meyerskal Chefe Saint People. Morgan minus one nineteen chef A minus one oh one
52:15
plus one forty for this fight to finish most of the finishing equity on the
52:20
Morgan side plus one eighty five plus one or plus five eighty five for Chef
52:24
A. We got this fight price eighty three hundred at seventy nine hundred.
52:30
A lot of line movement in this fight, too, So Morgan opened minus
52:32
one forty five. He got down to like minus one seventy five in the
52:37
past couple of days. Cheffa's had a good amount of steam on the way
52:40
back, and I actually surprised this What fight wasn't a pick them before?
52:45
I throw it to you just because of Chefe's name, Like everyone loves and
52:47
remembers the fight where he beat Trevor Peak that Jack Jenkins was an arm injury,
52:52
but people game log watch maybe in CE hundred eight points Morgan had a
52:55
big one himself first round KO against a very good fighter. But yeah,
53:01
Chape's been impressive. What's your lean on this fight? How do you like
53:05
it for DFS? Because I this is similar the other fight I mentioned,
53:07
No lean on how it goes, no lean on the winner. I just
53:10
want to be around the field so it doesn't ruin my night in every way.
53:15
Maybe you can talk me into something. No, I don't know what
53:17
I'm gonna do with this one. I think that they're just both in play.
53:22
We're on the Chepe side. Really, any win as an underdog from
53:25
him could score well. I think he's more likely to control the fight on
53:29
the ground, more likely to land multiple takedowns throughout the fight. He's a
53:32
wild aggressive striker at times two, so he could get a knockout. But
53:37
I don't know. The line just doesn't really make sense, Like minus one
53:40
nineteen for Morgan minus one oh one for Chepe. But then let's compare inside
53:47
the distance. We got plus one eight five for Morgan plus five eighty five
53:53
for Chepe, and then they have the same exact decision line. So I
53:57
just I kind of I'm on the morganside. I just think I'm more impressed
54:00
with him. I think he's the better, more dangerous striker in this one.
54:04
He's got nasty leg kicks, he'll mix in nasty body shots as well.
54:07
I do think he's a lot more likely to finish the fight. And
54:10
the more that the line is shifting, we might have Chepe be the favorite
54:14
by the time that the fights kick off. And if that's the case,
54:16
his ownership is gonna shoot up, and I'll like him less in that case,
54:22
and I'll like Morgan more. But right now, it's it's just one
54:25
where I don't see me really making it a point to target this one with
54:30
my handbuilds. And I'd be fine with anywhere from like fifteen to forty percent
54:35
on these guys if I'm mming, because I just don't know how this one's
54:38
gonna play out. But my ultimate prediction was Morgan by TKO and I'm going
54:44
to see Morgan walling tonight. So I just feel like at this point I
54:46
gotta roll with Morgan, right, So I gotta go away to Morgan underweight
54:51
now with a new Chepe possible ownership, probably underweight there. Matt has no
54:55
idea either. That makes three of us. Matt, I could be to
55:00
forty percent. Like if I ten percent Chapey or forty percent chap Pay and
55:04
I loved everything else, I probably roll with it, to be honest,
55:07
I don't have a strong lean either and anything. So you said Morgan,
55:12
I'm not gonna convince anyone else elsewhere mother likes Morgan. Maybe I'll but Morgan
55:16
a little bit. But again, if I have more Chappay and I love
55:19
everything, I'm totally fine. If I ten percent of both of them and
55:22
I'm way underweight, well I guess I'm fine like that too. I just
55:25
hope others outscore them. I'm not gonna my night's not gonna necessarily be determined.
55:30
I'm not gonna be mixing and getting a certain amount of ownership on either
55:34
of these guys and messing around with it to determine my night. I'll make
55:37
sure other fights I get I'll mix in these guys. But yeah, I'm
55:40
we didn't really help people out too much in that one. I'm not gonna
55:44
say anymore though, because I'm not helping people out with any other words.
55:47
If you want some more help, hit me up at Discord on Saturday.
55:50
I'll tell you my exact ownership on both of them. Yeah, there you
55:52
go, you can do that, as always. Two fights, Love Baby
55:55
Alexander. Name is Damon Jackson minus two o two Hernandez plus one seventy two
56:01
is Jackson minus two ten for this fight to finish, Hernandez minus one fifteen
56:07
inside the distance daman Jackson plus three fifty. Yeah, you can start with
56:13
this one. How do you see it going? Another tough one? I
56:19
want you to start, you want me to try and help you. I
56:22
do like both sides, I feel. I just think it's tough to predict
56:25
a winner in this one because I definitely favor Hernandez in the striking department,
56:31
especially the TKO equity's He's going to be more durable, especially early, and
56:37
he's got a lot more power as well. He's got wrestling chops too.
56:40
But I think Jackson's the much more likely wrestler. In this one. I
56:44
think he's more dangerous on the ground as well. And if Hernandez isn't getting
56:50
a TKO and he's not wrestling and he wins, I just don't think he's
56:53
gonna score very well. Whereas any win from Jackson I think is putting up
56:58
more than ten x and I think that he's more live than Vegas does.
57:00
I think that the line should be a little bit closer in this one.
57:04
Early, I would favor Hernandez. Late, I would favor Jackson. But
57:07
Jackson could get off to takedowns early and win all three rounds, or just
57:12
get a submission in the first round and score one hundred and five plus points
57:15
here. So I'm definitely my preferred play on this one is Jackson. I
57:20
know that, but I don't know how much Hernandez I want to get.
57:23
I'm definitely fine mixing him in, but he's I don't know, I just
57:29
need I need the knockout. What does is he's minus one fifteen inside.
57:32
The distance is knockouts plus one thirty. I got him my first round knockout.
57:37
That's a lot. Yeah, I mean that's hard to fay that so
57:42
at eighty seven hundred, But if you don't like it, you know ownership
57:45
will go there because you look at inside the distance and you look at money
57:49
line and the price. Like he checks all the boxes, all the boxes.
57:52
David Jackson's been knocked out what four times? Five? Yeah, four
57:57
times, He's already been knocked out six losses. Hernandez can hit, he
58:00
can wrestle. I feel like he's gonna get ownership for me. How I
58:05
look at it is Jackson. It feels kind of not necessarily suburbust. But
58:09
I think like a lot of Jackson's path is just a sub Like if Hernandez
58:14
either goes for a takedown himself or Jackson does get a takedown himself, I
58:19
mean what fifteen wins myself? Like he is nasty on the mat, I
58:22
just think on the feet, I think power, speed, athleticism all is
58:27
Hernandez. I think he can stay. Like I kind of look at this
58:30
as a Jim Miller fight for Hernandez, and I think Jim Miller at that
58:35
point, I mean, it might be better than Damon Jackson. Like I
58:37
was very impressed. He kept it on the feeds until like the last minute
58:40
when he got his back taken, which was scary, but he just kept
58:44
it on the feet. He pieced him up, and he beat a very
58:46
good Jim Miller. I think pretty similar here. However, if he does
58:51
that same style and plays at smart and just keeps it at rains, you
58:54
don't want a decision for Alexander Hernandez, So I'll throw it back to you.
58:59
I I like this a lot. I'm playing both. I prefer playing
59:01
is a Hernandez side. I do know that, but Jackson has plenty of
59:05
upside. Another live dog with a lot of it finish. Yet your thoughts
59:07
on this one? Yeah, I think you just talked to me. You
59:10
talked me into I mean, I will be overweight to Jackson. I'm picking
59:13
him to win, but I was probably gonna be a little underweight to Hernandez.
59:16
And now since I'm gonna have a lot of Jackson, I think it
59:21
just makes sense. Like if he's gonna lose his fight, it probably is
59:22
likely to be a knockout. It could be in the first round where Hernandez
59:25
breaks a slate. So yeah, maybe I'll just get leveraged to both sides
59:29
of this one. I don't hate that at all, especially eighty seven hundred
59:31
dollars. I like him plugging Walker plug and Walker take it. I know
59:36
you like Walker a lot, but can Hernandez and I don't score Walker like
59:39
both are favored to finish like the odds are pretty much the same on the
59:44
money line. So that's another pit, not a pivot. But eight hundred
59:46
you can leave and feel or seven hundred. I guess that'd be and feel
59:50
confident in doing that. So I think it's eight hundreds. Like the people
59:52
always ask how much can you leave? You mentioned it in the eighty five
59:57
seventy seven hundred fight. I think a thousand you can leave comfortably on this
1:00:01
card. I guess, Oh yeah, I mean, I think every underdogs
1:00:04
live on this card. I'd be fine. I'll probably set my minimum at
1:00:08
least two k, maybe more, maybe like twenty five hundred. I'm not
1:00:12
sure, but yeah, i'd say you changed my mind on this one.
1:00:15
I'm gonna be I don't know sure. I mean, I guess it depends
1:00:17
on what her Nanda's ownership comes in at. You might have talked me into
1:00:21
raising it as well, so my current ownership, I could see me being
1:00:27
overweight on if I if I help them to like high thirties, maybe I
1:00:30
go underweight I don't know. Hit me up in Discord again on this one.
1:00:32
Another tough one. So many of these ones on this car where it's
1:00:36
just they share so many different ways, so I don't know what's gonna happen.
1:00:42
I guess on this one will give me the underdog to pull off the
1:00:44
episode. Yeah, I mean, it's just a great I'm sure it's just
1:00:47
a It's very interesting fight for sure. It's a good one to target because
1:00:52
Jackson has a submission his path. With the submission, both guys could wrestle
1:00:57
her Nana's great finishing props, striking advantage. The price is good for the
1:01:01
props. It's gonna get ownership. I think Hernandez will probably be in the
1:01:05
mid thirties. And yeah, I mean I'll probably be somewhere around there too.
1:01:08
But I definitely have interest in Jackson, even though I'm picking against them.
1:01:12
What's up, Smarty, Hope you're doing well today. Smarty always in
1:01:15
the Discord college football. You do have Djen of course, now, Smarty,
1:01:20
great job last year. We didn't even charge anything. He did it
1:01:22
for free. In the Discord. It was not an additional part of the
1:01:27
membership. Absolutely crushed. So many members had a lot of success I see
1:01:30
in the college basketball streets as well. So smarty, huge piece of the
1:01:35
content over here in the Discord. Awesome dude. And again that's just another
1:01:38
benefit. When you join the nation, you get in the Discord. Tennis.
1:01:43
We don't have tennis offering. We have a tennis Discord Jackson there.
1:01:45
Other people help out, other sports, give their takes. A lot of
1:01:50
very sharp members in there. UFL now too. I didn't even know that
1:01:53
UFL now as well. Draftings has prizes, smarty, helping out all the
1:01:59
time, awesome stuff. They're smarty again. It's low sixty nine dollars a
1:02:02
month. Use the promo code hoop fifteen get you fifteen percent off six month
1:02:07
package, cheaper annual package, the cheapest if you do that. Hoop fifteen
1:02:13
is the promo code for all of them. Let's fight on the car Big
1:02:15
Marley Main Event rematch Brendan Allen Chris Curtis minus two twenty Brendan Allen a plus
1:02:22
one eighty five Chris Curtis minus two ten for this fight to finish, Allen
1:02:27
plus one hundred Curtis plus two ninety five inside the distance, take it away
1:02:31
a Big Marley yeah, just I mean, with five rounds to work with,
1:02:37
it'll be one of the better fights on the car to target both sides
1:02:39
of. But it's another one where it's just tough to tell you how it's
1:02:45
gonna play out. Curtis already knocked him out when they fought before. The
1:02:49
first round was a pretty close striking match. I think Curtis had him on
1:02:52
the numbers, but I could have seen the judges going either way on that
1:02:55
one. But I mean, Allen's looking like a potential title contender. He's
1:03:02
got eight of his last nine fights are wins. His only loss was to
1:03:08
Curtis. He's submitted two of the best submission guys in the division. I
1:03:14
think if if he's worried about getting knocked out again here, he should try
1:03:17
to look to wrestle a little bit more. I definitely don't think he looked
1:03:21
to wrestle enough in that first fight, And if he does look to do
1:03:24
that, I think he can win the fight. You know, as much
1:03:28
as he wants on the ground, I think he can control the fight on
1:03:30
the ground. I think he's live for the submission as well. It's just
1:03:34
getting it down to the ground is gonna be the hardest part against the guy
1:03:37
with good takedown defense and Curtis, and if he can't get it to the
1:03:39
ground, then Curtis is live to win a five round striking match. He
1:03:44
can knock him out again in any round. So I don't know. I'm
1:03:47
just gonna Bena be pretty heavy on both sides, but I do side with
1:03:52
Allen as the winner by submission, so I'll probably get him as my leverage
1:03:59
play. Maybe I'll be something like fifty sixty Alan and then thirty forty Curtis,
1:04:05
something along those lines. I don't know, but if you if you
1:04:09
talk me into I mean, if you are about to break down a Curtis
1:04:12
win, you could change my mind on this one because I'm just not confident
1:04:15
enough that Alan is gonna wrestle like I would want him to do. Yeah,
1:04:21
how about this before I break it down? So my thought is eighty
1:04:26
five percent we have at our ownership right now is gonna be on this fight.
1:04:30
It's a thirteen fight card. I think the sharp side is the underweight
1:04:34
total on this fight. I think that's too much ownership. There's enough other
1:04:39
live fights that can get to like Trevor Peak and Charlie Campbell right in that
1:04:42
same range. Hernanaz Jackson right in that same range. Al Munde's fight right
1:04:46
in that same range. Are Gwata as a dog like that can outscore Curtis?
1:04:50
What are your thoughts on that being underweight on this fight? So I'll
1:04:54
say, I guess, I'll say mine quick, I'm underweight Allen. I
1:04:57
prefer Curtis as my preferred play because I think there's pass. Allen can put
1:05:00
up one oh five and still just be outscored by others and not get there.
1:05:04
A little harder to see with Curtis. He can be lulled asleep,
1:05:08
take moments off a little bit, though, like the Phil Hawes, get
1:05:12
his reads and then explode. So even a third, fourth round Curtis knockout,
1:05:15
maybe can score eighty and maybe that gets outscored Alan. I think there's
1:05:19
pass, and I just don't think Brendan Allen like he went over three on
1:05:24
takedowns in the first round he tried when he was getting pieced up. Curtis
1:05:28
was just too strong. He shrugged him off of him. Curtis elite takedown
1:05:30
defense. It just feels like a tough stylistic matchup for Allen, Like how
1:05:34
someone can lay minus two twenty after watching that first fight is crazy to me.
1:05:40
I don't really get it. But back to all this, I'm gonna
1:05:42
have some of both. Curtis is my preferred play since I think when he
1:05:45
wins, he's more likely to be optimal. Where's Allen still needs to put
1:05:48
up a big one and outscore others in his range. But I'm gonna have
1:05:53
I'm gonna be underweight to this fight like I'm not gonna I'm gonna make sure
1:05:57
I have less than eighty five percent, less than eighty percent sense and just
1:06:00
hope because when you win, when you fade the main event of world's years
1:06:04
on a thirteen fight card, it's so easy to get different when you win?
1:06:08
How much do you win? So what are your thoughts on the fade
1:06:11
like that quick man? Any final thoughts? That was my thoughts on this
1:06:14
one. Yeah, I definitely think that makes sense, and definitely more so
1:06:17
in an Alan win. I kind of think Alan's allwed to win a five
1:06:20
round striking match to here, to be honest with you, and if he
1:06:24
does do that, then he's probably not going to be on the optimal lineup.
1:06:28
And also maybe it's a second or third round fanish, he just doesn't
1:06:32
do a lot leading up to it. Take him off. So yeah,
1:06:35
I think I'd be okay with that. It's just I mean, when I'm
1:06:39
making if I'm making one hundred line ups, I still probably am going to
1:06:43
have this fight in close to three fourths of them, I would think.
1:06:46
But still that's still underway. Three fourths would be underweight. That's true.
1:06:50
I mean, but maybe, shit, maybe he talked me into a little
1:06:54
bit less than that. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
1:06:56
And since I'm picking Alan to win, I think I picked him like
1:06:58
second or third round, so two and that might not cut it. So
1:07:02
yeah, I could be okay with that. But he is still one of
1:07:04
my favorite favorites, like shorting by Salary Again, I like Walker, Campbell,
1:07:13
Allen. They're my top three favorites. Yeah, I mean he's a
1:07:16
great play. Like yeah, in the rankings, I have them number one.
1:07:20
Everyone knows he's a great play. That's the thing. Though. Everybody
1:07:23
knows he's a great play. So eighty five percent of the field playing it,
1:07:28
Like, I just think I think that's a little over owned on this
1:07:30
thirteen fight card. Really, this is the first time title on the stream
1:07:33
without a hat. Not quite a little more as of late. Not quite,
1:07:36
but yeah, I mean it's definitely is a little bit rare. Marley
1:07:40
got the head off for and D that's all thirteen fights. Awesome stuff is
1:07:44
always big Marley Again, you want to join us hoop fifteen fifteen percent off
1:07:48
MMA, PGA, NASCAR, MLB, NBA. I think I might already
1:07:54
said MBA, NASCAR already said that, I know UFL Tennis and again those
1:08:00
not paid for the subscription numbers in there helping people out. Smarty does a
1:08:05
phenomenal job, always in there. Very sharp guy wins plenty of cheese himself
1:08:11
getting the discord monthly, six month annual packages. Use the promo code who
1:08:15
fifteen if you just want to check us out. We have weekly packages,
1:08:18
no discord, no promo code. You can see what we offer, though
1:08:21
a lot of sports going on, probably a good time to check it out
1:08:26
if you have it already all the stuff. Actually I just put all the
1:08:29
MMA, all my MMA stuff up. Fight rankings will be up soon and
1:08:33
not sure people saw it last week. The Stone had it for golf of
1:08:38
course with DJN now is in MMA just a very easy if you only got
1:08:42
five ten minutes. One stop shop. You see overweight, underweight, tags,
1:08:45
height, reach what they weigh in at just a one stop shop all
1:08:50
the stuff you need to do it quickly. You want our breakdowns to read
1:08:55
and slate plan, fight rankings, et cetera. Final words for the people,
1:08:58
Big Marley. I've talked enough. Now no better time to sign up.
1:09:01
We got Masters next week. MILLI up top there a couple of million
1:09:04
up top right, yep uh. And then UFC three hundred. We know
1:09:08
everybody watching this is definitely gonna be watching UFC three hundred. You're gonna want
1:09:12
some action over there on DraftKings as well, So sign up now. Like
1:09:15
Smarty said in the comments, you won't look back. So I can't wait
1:09:19
for this card to build. It to be a bank rolld builder for next
1:09:21
week. But yeah, it's it's ultimately next week that I'm looking forward to.
1:09:26
But good luck on this card to you, title, good luck to
1:09:28
everybody listening. Let's ship it, lead ship bir stand by like to say
1:09:32
good luck, Big Marley, Big Marley on title Town, be safe,
1:09:35
have a great weekend. Let's ship it as the Mother and bast Must and
1:10:06
the still Mother Hans and then the neather with Hans Unsted and Pans mother with any bus