Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / China Trade Deal Rally?🚀Crypto Market Update

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China Trade Deal Rally?🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Is the China deal starting to make sense and will
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: it affect crypto Today we'll break it down for you guys.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Bair. Welcome back in the tech path.
• 0:13
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  Speaker 1: get started, and you guys can begin. Let's go over
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: to a couple points I want to hit on today,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and of course there are some big key events this week.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: The Atlanta Fed GDP data is today. We're talking about
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: MAC inflation data coming in on Wednesday. I think that's
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: the one to watch, as the CPI and also the
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: ten year note auction, this will all start also put
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: some pressure on treasuries. That'll show up on Wednesday, Thursday,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: we've got PPI inflation data, and then of course we'll
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: have the Michigan inflation expectations by Friday, so a little
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: bit coming around, and you know, obviously consumer sentiment will
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: play into this as well, and I think a little
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: bit of this from a macro standpoint will continue to
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: give us some insights on how the markets are going
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: to start to play out.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: One thing to consider right now is what we're seeing
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: around the US and the Chinese negotiations. Markets are surging
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit as the talks are coming together. And
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: remember that this is not necessarily Trump that is in there.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: The negotiations are being led on the American side by Bessett,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Secretary and Treasury Department, and of course the Chinese side
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: by hey Liifeng, who is the Vice Premier of the
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Chinese government. So these are guys that can actually make
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: things happen. And it's not necessarily that we're going to
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: see a trade deal, but the possibility of de escalation
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: is real and I think that will play in very
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: positively for the market. Remember we saw bitcoin going almost
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: all down to one hundred k and then bouncing back
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: to one oh seven in a very short period of time.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: By the way, if you guys bought that dip, let
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: me know in the comments to stop some down below. Now,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I want to get into a clip here, because this
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: clip is going to get into what are the expectations.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: The reconvening of what they're calling the Geneva mechanism or
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: the China US Trading Economic Consultation mechanism is a constructive step.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: I think it will not solve Becky any of the
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: long term challenges. It won't change the strategic goals of
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: both of these countries to reduce interdependence on one another. But
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: what it will do Becky is allow, we hope, well
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: the less likelihood of a rapid rupture in the relationship.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: It will allow for we hope, deliberative and responsible management
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: of the bilateral relationship, and that buys businesses sometime to
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: really anticipate and try to mitigate some of the risk
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: associated with the ongoing de risking and decoupling that I
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: think will continue despite this new round of dialogue and engagement.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, we just heard from Kevin Hassett at the
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: White House that it sounds like the two key sticking points,
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: rare earth minerals will be released from China and that
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: the US will release some of the export controls on semiconductors.
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: To this point, is that how you see it playing out?
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: I think if we get to that point, Becky, we
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: should all be cheering. That's a great outcome. This is
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: a small window. This is not a return to the
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: early two thousands high level engagement. This is a cat
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: and mouse game that's happening between these two countries. And
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: if businesses don't look at it that way, they will
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: find themselves short again if something all of a sudden
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: becomes hot between these two.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Countries, which is most likely going to happen. But I
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: did like his take, and that is the idea of
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: businesses trying to line up and creating some strategy around this.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: What this simply means.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Is that is this a little bit of a stall
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: technique technique to be able to get businesses back to onshoring.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: If you follow Kobees, they were talking about a lot
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of companies who are increasingly talking about moving foreign operations back.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: To the US.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: This surprised me here is that the number of monthly
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: conversations that happened during their S and P five hundred
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: earnings calls hit a record sixty in May, so that
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: is big. And then among the S and P five hundred,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: twenty two mentions of reshoring were in the health sector,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: followed again by eleven industrials and utilities. Now, house sector
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: is one of the biggest ones that everybody is concerned
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: when you think about the pharmaceuticals that are manufactured outside
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: of the United States, one of the big areas. Obviously
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the idea between the two negotiation levers that are being
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: pushed right now between rare Earth and obviously what's going
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: on with chips, which plays into AI. This gets into
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: a very competitive range because I think China understands one thing,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: they need chips, and I think the United States is
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: looking for those materials to continue the advancement of a
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: lot of the manufacturing and the technology sector. So it
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: is kind of both of us needing each other right now.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: And I think to his point is that this is
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: a good point that could lever up to a potential
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: at least where businesses can start to create strategies around this. Now,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Trump is coming in now and saying that the Federal
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Reserve is a disaster and is calling for one hundred
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: basis points of interest rate cut. Let me tell you,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: if that were to happen, the market would absolutely boom.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Now what would we do in terms of paying the
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: price down the road? I think all that still yet
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: to be determined. A lot is still happening globally as
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: you continue to see the ECB and other global participants
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: starting to reposition their interest rates and of course trying
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: to re calculate how their economies can recover. The United
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: States not necessarily in that position right now. Trump says
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: he's going to announce a new FED chair next week.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know how this is going to be done
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: and if it can even be done. But of course,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: as you know, Trump is very good at being very
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: boisterous and just throwing stuff out there, assuming he's manifesting it.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Whether or not this actually happens, I think is the question.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: But the fact that he's making these kind of statements
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: is one to be at least aware of in your
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: strategies of getting into the market. Another thing to consider
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: is who would be the play if it was someone,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a guy by the name
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: of Kevin Walsh. Now this is a pro crypto guy.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: He's also been in and around the FED for quite
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: some time, so there is a potential. And there are
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: some ties into Vescent as well, so there are some
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: potentials here. If this even could happen, or if let's
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: say that chair Palell had enough pressure sure to step
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: aside not being fired, of course, it's kind of like,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: let's just show you the door kind of scenario. But
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: before all of that happens, is this Kevin Warsh guy
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: the guy for the job?
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this.
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it makes sense. I think he'd be
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: a great candidate to I think the president's notion about
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: where interest rates should be doesn't necessarily dovetail.
• 7:25
  Speaker 7: With where I believe they should be.
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: But I don't have a problem with him having an opinion.
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: He certainly doesn't seem to be calling out the National
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: Guard to and enforce his opinion on FED fun futures
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: or on where the rate is. And I think course
• 7:40
  Speaker 6: is obviously a high level, very intelligent, great pick. I'm
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: sure Steve would not disagree with.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: That I think Kevin would be a good pick. I
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: think the thing is is not is he hawks or
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: as he dubs. The way I like to think about
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: this is the extent to which the next FED chair
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  Speaker 3: would embrace. Essentially, what Kevin has to to say, and
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: what Kevin is saying is that if you look at
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: the CEA forecast, we're going to have high growth and
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: we're going to have low inflation, and that's a forecast
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: that you can set monetary policy on. Unfortunately, this particular
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: FED I don't think is ready to embrace that. I
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: think they're open to the possibility of it, Joe, I
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: just don't think they're ready to take a flyer on
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: it right now.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: All right, So you can kind of see there are
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: two different strategies being floated out here. The strategy that
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Powell and the current commissioners are on right now, which
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is much more cautious around FED ray cuts. And then
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: you look at the potential of forecasting the potential of
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: high growth and low inflation, which is a remedy I
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: think from where the FED has been positioning for quite
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: some time, which is higher for longer. And I think
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: if all of this plays into it, this could be
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: a reality if in fact that Chair Pale steps aside,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: all of that would still be lined up on Chair pal.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: On another note here, you have to look at the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: tax bill that's being pushed through Congress right now. Center
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Republicans are planning to release a major revision on this
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: tax bill very soon. And one of the things I
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: want to highlight, and I'll zoom in on the Senate
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Finance Committee planning to extract savings from Medicaid and perhaps
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the Medicare health insurance programs, which could depart in the
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: respects for the version of the giant bill that's currently
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: in play. What this simply means is there are going
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: to be some and we've talked about this over the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, that there would be some potential
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: revisions of how this bill is structured. And I think
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of this is now a push pull between
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: House Democrats and Republican Democrats, along with the Senate as
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: it plays out into passing a tax bill that could
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: become all of this going forward. And if you think
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: about where Elon kind of stepped aside from this because
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: he was losing a lot of potential there and he
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: has now kind of gone a little bit quieter, So
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I imagine there has been some phone calls and maybe
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: that portion of it is over. The real question is
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: one tax bill goes into effect, which is really what
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Trump is all about. Maybe this is the position that
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: we have been looking for all along. The real question
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: is is this in jeopardy at all?
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 10:14
  Speaker 8: I do think there is risk for Donald Trump in
• 10:16
  Speaker 8: this feud, especially visa via reconciliation bill. And I don't
• 10:20
  Speaker 8: want to overstate it, but if Elon Musk goes on
• 10:23
  Speaker 8: X and says I want everyone to call their member
• 10:25
  Speaker 8: of Congress and you know, and complain about this bill
• 10:29
  Speaker 8: and tell them not to vote for it, there is
• 10:31
  Speaker 8: risk with that, right. I mean, members of Congress are
• 10:34
  Speaker 8: at least to some degree, to varying degrees, susceptible to
• 10:38
  Speaker 8: criticism from their constituents, especially when their phone lines are
• 10:41
  Speaker 8: being lit up. But you're absolutely right. The Musk was
• 10:45
  Speaker 8: making a substantive argument which had some constituency on Capitol Hill,
• 10:51
  Speaker 8: and it turned into a little bit of cartoonish circus.
• 10:54
  Speaker 8: So yes, I agree with that completely.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And if you look at Trump and Elon in
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: jen I think Elon's obvious power is the megaphone that
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: he has, you know, as the owner of X, but
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: also his potential of being able to move markets, and
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: when I say move markets, move political markets. Trump says
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: that Elon would face serious consequences if he funds Democratic candidates.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think he would go that far to
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the left unless maybe there is something else. But I
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: feel like right now what we've seen is a little
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: bit of a daytime between the two. We started to
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: see Elon slow down a little bit on X tweets,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and of course this plays into maybe how this is
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: going to go forward, or does Trump have something that
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: he could play against Elon, Because when he's talking about
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: what those consequences would be, he declined.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: To share the what they would be.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: So this is still playing into a couple of points
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that I think a lot of people are trying to say, Hey,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: we got to figure out how to get this relationship prepared.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Both are well liked, I think, you know, within to
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: an certain extent at least with what they're trying to do,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: but also both are hated on the other side. So
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: it's an interesting time right now as we start to
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: see all this playing out with the FED and so forth.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So it's going to be something that will impact markets,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I think in a big way.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: So we got to stay very close to this. Overall.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Other things that happened last week and this week is
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Circle. Circle of course announced their ipo.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: IPO was very successful. We started to see a little
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: bit of movement on it, some retlacement on it. But
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: also when you look at what Circle is doing, is
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: this a business that has the kind of legs that
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: if you think about the alternative, which is tether and
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: what we've seen in terms of the growth of tether,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: many people are starting to ask that very same question
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: about Circle.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Here's what they had to say.
• 12:46
  Speaker 9: There's a really big kind of shift on Wall Street,
• 12:49
  Speaker 9: which is they are looking to figure out where's the
• 12:52
  Speaker 9: intersection of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance, and obviously stable coins
• 12:56
  Speaker 9: I think is one area where they've said, hey, not
• 12:58
  Speaker 9: only is this something that the market wants in terms
• 13:00
  Speaker 9: of the free market of users on the internet, but
• 13:02
  Speaker 9: it's also something that we can benefit from ourselves as well.
• 13:04
  Speaker 9: And you hear many of the large banks and financial
• 13:06
  Speaker 9: institutions talking about using stable coins themselves. So it's something
• 13:10
  Speaker 9: that is touching on crypto, but it's something that they
• 13:12
  Speaker 9: understand and they can use themselves. And so I think
• 13:14
  Speaker 9: maybe a word of caution is that every crypto company
• 13:17
  Speaker 9: that now tries to go public may not get the
• 13:19
  Speaker 9: same welcome. It may be more of a stable coin
• 13:21
  Speaker 9: story than it is a crypto story.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So that's an interesting statement by pomp Deiano because he
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't really answer the question of is it a lucrative
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: business because you still have to look at stable coins, yes,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: because of the regulatory framework. But the other thing that
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: he kind of got to and I'll touch on in
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a minute, is the fact that he was almost sidestepping
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the potential of other crypto related companies coming into the fold,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: at least on the S and P five hundred or
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: even just on stock change, and how they might play
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: out in how companies and people would invest in them
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: in the future. Before I go to that, though, I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: want to jump over to answering that very question that
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: is it lucrative for Circle as a company? Take a look,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: is this a lucrative business model?
• 14:05
  Speaker 9: What do you think this should be worth?
• 14:06
  Speaker 7: For Coinbase, It's great because they are.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Why it's the better for Coinbase then for Circle.
• 14:11
  Speaker 7: It's obviously the best for Circle because they own the
• 14:14
  Speaker 7: IP on this one, but it's great for Coinbase because
• 14:16
  Speaker 7: they're distributing it and there's a lot of they're kind
• 14:19
  Speaker 7: of tied by the belly button because Coinbase needs Circle
• 14:22
  Speaker 7: because they mint the dollar, and Circle needs Coinbase because
• 14:25
  Speaker 7: they have a lot of users, so they're kind of
• 14:27
  Speaker 7: like intertwined. It's great for everyone.
• 14:29
  Speaker 8: So let me ask you this Circle now has done
• 14:32
  Speaker 8: quite well.
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: There's going to be a lot of people who aren't
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: in it who wonder if they should own the shares now,
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: should they own shares of Circle?
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Should they just own Coinbase?
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: Should they just own bitcoin?
• 14:39
  Speaker 9: Out right?
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, what are the different advantages?
• 14:41
  Speaker 7: So in crypto specifically, and I don't cover Circle of course,
• 14:45
  Speaker 7: but in crypto specifically, I would still go with the
• 14:49
  Speaker 7: most diversified of all, which is actually Robinhood, because you
• 14:52
  Speaker 7: get the best of all worlds, right, you get exposure
• 14:55
  Speaker 7: to crypto, you get exposure to bitcoin, the volatility. I mean,
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: we're okay with coinbas We upgraded a while ago and
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: we warmed up to them, so not you know, yeah, no,
• 15:03
  Speaker 7: I know, I listen, we upgraded. But from a diversification perspective,
• 15:10
  Speaker 7: you don't want to be exposed one hundred percent to
• 15:11
  Speaker 7: crypto because today things are great, but as you said,
• 15:14
  Speaker 7: bitcoins trading down you never know what all.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Right, So interesting points there that he was making is
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: that what's kind of curious is that they're kind of
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: correlating bitcoin to stable coins, and that I think is
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the maybe the unusual connection if you think about how
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: closely they're related. But if you look at what like
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Pampleana was talking in the previous clip, you know he
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: was already kind of I would say, down talking a
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of the potential of crypto companies that could
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: make their way onto the stock exchange in a big way,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and one of them that we've talked about many times
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: here on the show is spat. You know, when you
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: look at what sharplink is doing with its correlation to ethereum,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: a crypto company or a crypto all and the potential
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: for that in terms of it becoming a new store
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of value or a store of assets around ethereum, that
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I think is interesting that Papiano made that statement. Another
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: thing that you have to look at is what's going
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: on with the Genius Act. And of course this right
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: now is Senator Lummus saying that the Genius Act is
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: just around the corner. It will pass next week. That
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: is coming fast. When this occurs, guys, we will see
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: a market move, whether it is going to happen on Bitcoin,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: whether we see Ethereum start to move, It could kick
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: off in all coin season. There are many things that
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: could start to play into this. That also mainly is
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: because that legislation will be out of the way. Next up,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of course, is a market structure bill. Regulation will continue
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to be part of this market over the next six
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: to eight months, So be on the lookout for all
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: of these things. It is going to get heated in
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the market. If you're not subscribed to the Diamond Circle
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: right now, get in on all of that because that's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: where we communicate additional content for you guys. And of course,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: if you're not in our Telegram group, that's where I
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: actually chat with you guys.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: One to one.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is just join down below,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: follow me out there on x at Paul Baron.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time. Right here on Techpath