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FINAL Pre-Panic Day Senate Board Check-In (NO TOSS-UPS) · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  We are almost out of time before panic day.
• 0:03
  Yes,
• 0:03
  Monday,
• 0:03
  October 19th.
• 0:04
  Uh,
• 0:04
  I'm gonna reset my,
• 0:06
  uh,
• 0:06
  Senate board one final time,
• 0:08
  not based on my own predictions here,
• 0:09
  but
• 0:09
  based on the data.
• 0:11
  What's the consensus opinion,
• 0:12
  and we're gonna lose all the toss-ups.
• 0:14
  We're gonna give you
• 0:15
  what the consensus is projecting
• 0:17
  right now
• 0:18
  for control of the Senate.
• 0:19
  We also have legendary prediction market trade.
• 0:21
  PMT on the program.
• 0:23
  He's gonna be returning to give us a lowdown on his mid-term investment strategy.
• 0:27
  And is Elon Musk going to reveal a flying car?
• 0:29
  Uh,
• 0:30
  is that possible?
• 0:31
  Uh,
• 0:32
  probably not,
• 0:32
  but I don't know,
• 0:33
  I'm gonna watch anyway cause it sounds like it's gonna
• 0:35
  be fascinating and we can have lots of fun with it
• 0:37
  in the markets.
• 0:38
  I have a position there.
• 0:39
  All that and more coming up on Predictable with Stu.
• 0:57
  Welcome
• 0:58
  to Predictable
• 0:59
  with Stu.
• 0:59
  We appreciate you joining us.
• 1:01
  Go to Senatefantasy.com,
• 1:03
  get in on the Senate Fantasy League that we've got going on
• 1:08
  right now.
• 1:08
  Kind of a fun way for you to
• 1:09
  participate in prediction markets without any risk whatsoever.
• 1:12
  Yes,
• 1:13
  we've taken the bad side out,
• 1:15
  the losing,
• 1:15
  and the good side in,
• 1:17
  winning money.
• 1:18
  Yeah,
• 1:18
  we'll fund your prediction market account
• 1:20
  if you're able to get towards the top of that particular
• 1:23
  contest.
• 1:23
  It's available for free,
• 1:25
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 1:26
  Just,
• 1:26
  you know,
• 1:27
  you don't have to know everything about every race.
• 1:28
  Just go in there,
• 1:28
  it takes 5 minutes,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:30
  and uh you can pick a few candidates.
• 1:31
  We have 19 days until
• 1:33
  the midterm elections.
• 1:34
  Early voting already happening in 21 states.
• 1:37
  And as I kind of mentioned in the open.
• 1:39
  We're only a few days away
• 1:41
  from panic day.
• 1:42
  People kept asking me,
• 1:42
  hey,
• 1:42
  uh,
• 1:43
  you know,
• 1:43
  is it time to panic yet?
• 1:44
  Is it time to panic?
• 1:45
  Most of my conservative,
• 1:45
  uh,
• 1:46
  Republican,
• 1:46
  uh,
• 1:47
  friends are feeling that way right now.
• 1:48
  Understandably.
• 1:49
  It doesn't look like a good year for Republicans.
• 1:51
  Is it time to panic it?
• 1:52
  Is it time to panic on my prediction market positions?
• 1:54
  I took a bunch of them thinking one thing would happen.
• 1:56
  Is it time to panic on Ter or,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:59
  Paxton?
• 1:59
  Is it time to panic on Hinson?
• 2:01
  Is it time to
• 2:02
  panic on Rogers?
• 2:03
  All these questions come in all the time.
• 2:04
  And I said,
• 2:05
  no,
• 2:05
  no.
• 2:06
  It's not time to panic.
• 2:08
  Panic Day
• 2:09
  is October 19th.
• 2:11
  Why is it October 19th?
• 2:13
  It's my show,
• 2:14
  so I get to make up anything I want.
• 2:16
  It's kind of fun.
• 2:17
  Uh,
• 2:18
  Octo
• 2:18
  October 19th,
• 2:19
  I,
• 2:19
  I made that up,
• 2:20
  first of all,
• 2:20
  to be,
• 2:21
  to have an answer to the question because I
• 2:22
  don't know whether you should panic or not.
• 2:24
  Um,
• 2:25
  but I will also say,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:27
  it gave me a nice kind of,
• 2:28
  uh,
• 2:28
  cushion to,
• 2:29
  to.
• 2:30
  To say,
• 2:30
  hey,
• 2:31
  like,
• 2:31
  look,
• 2:31
  wait,
• 2:32
  be patient.
• 2:33
  One of the things you have to do on prediction markets,
• 2:34
  oftentimes is to
• 2:36
  be patient and not let every little bit of hype
• 2:38
  move you.
• 2:40
  A lot of times you have to move past it.
• 2:41
  I,
• 2:41
  we talked about that,
• 2:42
  uh,
• 2:42
  the other day with a couple of candidates who are having
• 2:44
  troubles in their uh elections but are still the heavy favorites.
• 2:47
  Don't bail on those positions necessarily.
• 2:49
  Uh,
• 2:50
  you want to make sure you're understanding and taking a sober approach.
• 2:52
  That's what we try to do here,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:54
  all the time.
• 2:54
  Um,
• 2:55
  so,
• 2:55
  uh,
• 2:56
  well,
• 2:56
  you know,
• 2:56
  maybe,
• 2:57
  uh,
• 2:57
  a couple of drinks here and there,
• 2:58
  but generally speaking,
• 2:59
  a sober approach.
• 3:00
  So,
• 3:01
  what I wanted to do,
• 3:02
  uh,
• 3:02
  today,
• 3:02
  today,
• 3:03
  and October 19th is,
• 3:04
  um,
• 3:04
  is a panic day.
• 3:06
  So on Monday,
• 3:07
  I will go through
• 3:09
  what my thinking is.
• 3:10
  This weekend,
• 3:10
  I'm gonna spend a bunch of time going through a risk
• 3:12
  analysis and really trying to see where am I vulnerable,
• 3:16
  what position don't I like as much as I like,
• 3:18
  as I took when I,
• 3:19
  uh,
• 3:19
  you know,
• 3:19
  as I did when I took the position.
• 3:21
  Cause these are long-term positions.
• 3:22
  Some of them I took 6 months ago.
• 3:23
  I wanna make sure I'm lined up
• 3:25
  to where I want to be.
• 3:27
  So,
• 3:27
  I'm gonna do that and I'm gonna come back and talk to you about that.
• 3:29
  I'll tell you,
• 3:29
  hey,
• 3:30
  I think this one's safe,
• 3:31
  I think this one's dangerous,
• 3:33
  you know,
• 3:33
  buyer beware,
• 3:34
  and we'll go over all of that
• 3:36
  on October 19th,
• 3:37
  that is Monday.
• 3:38
  Today,
• 3:38
  I thought we'd set the table for that.
• 3:41
  Uh,
• 3:41
  and set the table for where we are for the Senate because
• 3:44
  the Senate is kind of the highest profile thing going on.
• 3:47
  Lots of great governor races,
• 3:48
  House races as well.
• 3:49
  The House is kind of seen as one that's maybe a lost cause for Republicans.
• 3:53
  Prediction markets put that in the 90% area,
• 3:56
  so maybe not as,
• 3:58
  uh,
• 3:58
  exciting,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 3:59
  if you are looking at that as far as control goes.
• 4:02
  Though,
• 4:02
  again,
• 4:03
  10% chance is not nothing.
• 4:05
  Uh,
• 4:05
  but a 90% chance is,
• 4:07
  uh,
• 4:07
  you know,
• 4:07
  pretty,
• 4:08
  pretty one-sided.
• 4:08
  The Senate is more like a 60/40 situation in a lot of these,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:12
  situations.
• 4:12
  So I thought what we could do,
• 4:13
  and we have this up at predictableShow.com.
• 4:16
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 4:17
  you see every single Senate race
• 4:19
  and you get the analysis of the,
• 4:21
  not the PMT,
• 4:22
  our guests coming up,
• 4:23
  but the PMC,
• 4:24
  which is our predictable midterm consensus.
• 4:26
  This is a consensus,
• 4:27
  not of my opinion,
• 4:28
  not even of prediction markets.
• 4:30
  But of
• 4:30
  all the experts,
• 4:31
  all the data,
• 4:32
  we're talking polling averages,
• 4:34
  we are talking,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:35
  fundamentals,
• 4:36
  fundraising,
• 4:37
  um,
• 4:38
  you know,
• 4:38
  uh,
• 4:39
  history,
• 4:39
  and,
• 4:40
  uh,
• 4:40
  you know,
• 4:40
  fully built election models all kind of coming together.
• 4:44
  Into one number.
• 4:45
  So you can
• 4:46
  not get the sense of like,
• 4:47
  well,
• 4:47
  MSNBC highlights the best numbers for Democrats.
• 4:49
  Fox News highlights the best for Republicans.
• 4:50
  I don't know if that's true,
• 4:51
  but,
• 4:51
  you know,
• 4:51
  you get the,
• 4:52
  you get the sense of,
• 4:53
  uh,
• 4:53
  that stuff happens sometimes.
• 4:55
  You wanna get all of it together,
• 4:56
  the place to go is the PMC.
• 4:58
  I have abs I'm completely agnostic to this.
• 5:01
  All I do is input the data.
• 5:02
  And run the model.
• 5:03
  Um,
• 5:04
  so that's what we're doing,
• 5:05
  uh,
• 5:05
  here.
• 5:05
  And I wanna give you a sense,
• 5:06
  if you're not a paid subscriber,
• 5:08
  you can't see these numbers on a day to day basis.
• 5:10
  I want to tell you
• 5:11
  where
• 5:12
  everything stands,
• 5:12
  and this will give us a final control.
• 5:14
  And one thing I'm not gonna do here.
• 5:16
  Normally,
• 5:16
  when I would do this,
• 5:17
  I would say,
• 5:17
  OK,
• 5:17
  these 5 races are toss-up races or whatever.
• 5:20
  No toss-ups.
• 5:21
  We're throwing the toss-up column
• 5:23
  out of the window.
• 5:23
  We're gonna take,
• 5:24
  we're gonna put it,
• 5:25
  start everything right there in the middle,
• 5:26
  and we're gonna move it all out to the outside so you
• 5:28
  have an idea as to where it stands at this very moment,
• 5:31
  19 days
• 5:32
  before
• 5:33
  the election.
• 5:34
  Let's do that.
• 5:34
  We're gonna start with the biggest blowouts.
• 5:36
  These,
• 5:37
  these are the ones that are,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:38
  supposed to be the easy ones.
• 5:40
  They're supposed to be the ones that are way over the line,
• 5:42
  you know,
• 5:43
  we're gonna start at,
• 5:43
  you know,
• 5:44
  almost 100% chances
• 5:45
  here.
• 5:46
  And let's bring up the Senate board.
• 5:47
  Do we have that,
• 5:47
  Adam?
• 5:48
  Uh,
• 5:49
  the Senate board is available for you,
• 5:50
  by the way,
• 5:50
  to play with
• 5:51
  at
• 5:52
  predictableshow.com.
• 5:53
  This is a totally free tool,
• 5:55
  and you'll see at the top of the Senate board
• 5:57
  where control is right now.
• 5:59
  34 Democrats are locked in.
• 6:01
  They're not up for election.
• 6:02
  31 Republicans are locked in.
• 6:03
  They are not up for election.
• 6:05
  So it's 34 to 31 to start,
• 6:07
  and we have 35 seats left
• 6:09
  to figure out.
• 6:10
  Um,
• 6:11
  that is the,
• 6:12
  the board and,
• 6:13
  and how it works.
• 6:13
  We have everything started right now into the toss-up column.
• 6:17
  And we'll start at the,
• 6:18
  what we think are the biggest blowouts
• 6:19
  and Massachusetts actually came in as number one
• 6:22
  at 99.6% chance.
• 6:25
  That is Ed Markey,
• 6:27
  uh,
• 6:27
  to win,
• 6:28
  uh,
• 6:28
  over John Deaton
• 6:30
  in,
• 6:30
  uh,
• 6:31
  we'll bring that over to solid Democrat,
• 6:33
  of course,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:34
  there.
• 6:35
  So,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:35
  and we'll just kind of watch this and we'll watch the control at the very,
• 6:38
  very end.
• 6:39
  Rhode Island,
• 6:40
  Jack Reed,
• 6:41
  heavy,
• 6:41
  heavy favorite,
• 6:42
  99.6%.
• 6:43
  On the predictable midterm consensus,
• 6:46
  he moves to the solid Democrat column
• 6:48
  as well,
• 6:49
  but it's not all bad news for Republicans,
• 6:51
  of course.
• 6:51
  We have some other states,
• 6:53
  uh,
• 6:53
  that are gonna go the opposite direction that are heavy favorites.
• 6:55
  Shelley Moore Capito,
• 6:57
  she's at 99.6% as a Republican to win in West Virginia,
• 7:01
  and she will move over to the solid
• 7:03
  Republican
• 7:04
  category.
• 7:05
  Uh,
• 7:05
  and another one at,
• 7:07
  uh,
• 7:07
  you know,
• 7:07
  this,
• 7:08
  these are no surprises,
• 7:08
  of course,
• 7:09
  Wyoming,
• 7:10
  Harriet Harriet Hageman at 99.6% chance as well,
• 7:13
  says the predictable market,
• 7:14
  uh,
• 7:14
  midterm consensus.
• 7:16
  99.6% will go to a solid Republican,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:19
  as well.
• 7:19
  So the first four states split 2 to 2.
• 7:22
  Uh,
• 7:22
  Delaware is another one going to the Democrats.
• 7:25
  This is a 99.4% chance for Chris Coons to win according to
• 7:29
  all of the data.
• 7:31
  Uh,
• 7:32
  Chris Coons goes to the,
• 7:33
  uh,
• 7:33
  of course,
• 7:33
  the Democratic side.
• 7:35
  Uh,
• 7:35
  and,
• 7:36
  uh thank you very much,
• 7:36
  Adam.
• 7:37
  Um,
• 7:38
  Oklahoma going the opposite direction.
• 7:39
  Kevin Hearn,
• 7:40
  99.4% chance.
• 7:42
  There's a little more value in the gubernatorial election
• 7:44
  potentially for you if you're interested in Oklahoma.
• 7:46
  That of course goes to the other side to the Republican,
• 7:49
  solid Republican
• 7:50
  for that race.
• 7:51
  Uh,
• 7:52
  again,
• 7:52
  you see how many of these are like,
• 7:53
  they're not,
• 7:54
  people aren't even
• 7:55
  doubting them,
• 7:55
  right?
• 7:56
  Over 99% chance already.
• 7:57
  Uh,
• 7:58
  we go to,
• 7:58
  uh,
• 7:59
  Oregon,
• 7:59
  uh,
• 8:00
  this will go to solid Democrat,
• 8:01
  9.
• 8:02
  9.4% for Jeff Merkley to win his race against David Rock Smith.
• 8:07
  Uh,
• 8:07
  and then in New Mexico,
• 8:08
  another Democrat
• 8:10
  is Ben Ray
• 8:11
  Lujan.
• 8:13
  Ben Ray Lujan,
• 8:14
  it's just fun,
• 8:14
  it's a fun name to say.
• 8:15
  Ben Ray Lujan is a solid Democrat as well,
• 8:18
  99.3% chance.
• 8:21
  One more in the 99s for the Democrats,
• 8:23
  99.2% chance for Colorado.
• 8:26
  Uh,
• 8:26
  that's John Hickenlooper goes over to the solid Democrat,
• 8:29
  uh,
• 8:30
  category as well.
• 8:32
  Uh,
• 8:33
  Tennessee is a solid Republican with Bill Hagerty.
• 8:36
  He's well,
• 8:37
  he's over at 99% as well,
• 8:39
  99.1% to be exact,
• 8:41
  according
• 8:42
  to all the election market data and the predictable midterm consensus.
• 8:45
  Uh,
• 8:46
  Alabama is up next.
• 8:47
  Barry Moore,
• 8:48
  heavy favorite,
• 8:49
  uh,
• 8:49
  Republican,
• 8:50
  solid Republican seat,
• 8:51
  98.9%
• 8:54
  chance for Barry Moore.
• 8:56
  To win in Alabama,
• 8:58
  Mark Warner for Virginia
• 9:00
  is the next one up,
• 9:01
  uh,
• 9:02
  and he is at 98.9% to go to the solid Democratic side,
• 9:06
  so we'll give that one over to the Democrats.
• 9:09
  Um,
• 9:10
  let's see,
• 9:10
  where do we go next?
• 9:11
  Let's go to New Jersey,
• 9:12
  Cory Booker,
• 9:13
  no surprise he's gonna win that race.
• 9:14
  98.7% chance he's gonna go to the solid Democrat as well.
• 9:18
  You see how many of these are just solid and not really up for anything.
• 9:21
  What's great about a solid race if you happen to be,
• 9:23
  uh,
• 9:23
  in one of these parties is you don't have to spend any money on it,
• 9:26
  right?
• 9:26
  Like these guys are gonna basically win.
• 9:28
  Like,
• 9:28
  you know,
• 9:29
  does,
• 9:29
  does Cory Booker need to run an ad?
• 9:31
  Probably not.
• 9:32
  Um,
• 9:32
  Idaho,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  this is an interesting 1.
• 9:34
  98.6% solid Republican
• 9:37
  in this race for Jim Risch.
• 9:39
  That's,
• 9:40
  uh,
• 9:40
  you know,
• 9:40
  some people are getting a little nervous about that race.
• 9:42
  I am not,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:43
  Jim Risch,
• 9:43
  I think will still win.
• 9:44
  He goes to the solid Republican side over an,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:47
  uh,
• 9:47
  an independent,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:48
  or a Democrat posing as an independent independent with Todd Achilles.
• 9:52
  In Illinois,
• 9:53
  again,
• 9:53
  not a competitive state,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:55
  Juliana Stratton,
• 9:56
  98.6%,
• 9:57
  goes to the Democratic side,
• 9:59
  another solid Democratic seat there.
• 10:01
  Um,
• 10:02
  Kentucky,
• 10:02
  a solid Republican,
• 10:03
  Andy Barr,
• 10:05
  98.6%. Kentucky drags over to that,
• 10:08
  and we're at 43-38 right now for Democrats
• 10:12
  in the lead for those keeping track,
• 10:14
  uh,
• 10:14
  at home.
• 10:15
  By the way,
• 10:15
  when you're on the Senate board doing your own Senate board.
• 10:18
  You don't have to keep track at home because it will calculate for you.
• 10:21
  And when you're done with your board,
• 10:22
  if you want to share it,
• 10:23
  uh,
• 10:23
  please do post it on the chat at predictableShow.com,
• 10:26
  post it on social media.
• 10:27
  There's a green share button there.
• 10:29
  You click that,
• 10:30
  send it to your friends.
• 10:31
  Hey,
• 10:31
  what would you do?
• 10:32
  Um,
• 10:32
  that,
• 10:32
  and you can do a kind of a,
• 10:34
  a very nerdy game.
• 10:35
  Your friends will,
• 10:36
  will really respect you afterwards.
• 10:37
  Don't,
• 10:38
  don't worry.
• 10:38
  Uh,
• 10:38
  so we would say Kentucky,
• 10:39
  Adam,
• 10:40
  I think,
• 10:40
  uh,
• 10:40
  Arkansas is next.
• 10:41
  Tom Cotton,
• 10:42
  97.9% chance.
• 10:44
  Again,
• 10:45
  another one where Democrats are like,
• 10:46
  oh,
• 10:46
  well,
• 10:47
  maybe we'll have a chance.
• 10:48
  Right now we're keeping that in the solid Democrat,
• 10:50
  uh,
• 10:50
  column,
• 10:50
  as it were at 9.
• 10:51
  97%.
• 10:52
  I've been doing it basically 95% or more,
• 10:55
  by the way,
• 10:55
  going into the solid categories.
• 10:57
  Uh,
• 10:57
  Mississippi is the last one
• 10:59
  out of the solid categories.
• 11:00
  We will go,
• 11:01
  uh,
• 11:01
  to the side of Cindy Hyde-Smith,
• 11:04
  95.1%
• 11:06
  over Scott.
• 11:07
  Uh,
• 11:08
  Colomb,
• 11:09
  the one interesting thing about this is,
• 11:10
  uh,
• 11:11
  Democrats again see a fringy blue tsunami type
• 11:14
  of thing putting Cindy Hydesmith in danger.
• 11:16
  There was a 4 point poll that came out relatively recently.
• 11:19
  Most of the polling has been mid to high single digits there,
• 11:22
  not the blowout you might expect in a place like Mississippi.
• 11:24
  And apparently Cindy Hyde-Smith said something bad about
• 11:27
  ground beef.
• 11:29
  Uh,
• 11:29
  she said you could have a different protein if,
• 11:31
  if,
• 11:31
  if you didn't have ground beef because the prices were up.
• 11:33
  So now every ad is about people
• 11:35
  barbecuing burgers.
• 11:39
  I,
• 11:39
  I will say we always make decisions based on the most notable and sensible things.
• 11:44
  It's that
• 11:44
  she had some off-handed comment.
• 11:45
  Let's,
• 11:46
  let's,
• 11:46
  let's elect a different senator because she made some dumb comment about burgers.
• 11:49
  Whatever.
• 11:50
  Uh,
• 11:50
  I remember John Kerry almost,
• 11:52
  I,
• 11:52
  I'm pretty sure at least he
• 11:53
  sort of,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:54
  was in danger after he wanted Swiss cheese on his cheesesteak in Philly.
• 11:58
  I mean,
• 11:58
  when he wanted that,
• 11:59
  I was like,
• 11:59
  oh gosh,
• 12:00
  I mean,
• 12:00
  no one could consider voting for him.
• 12:01
  OK,
• 12:02
  so now we're gonna go to the lean column.
• 12:04
  We're gonna go to lean Republican here next.
• 12:06
  Again,
• 12:06
  you know,
• 12:06
  is this a leaner state?
• 12:08
  I don't consider it a leaner state.
• 12:09
  This is just what we have for the setup
• 12:11
  for this particular,
• 12:12
  uh,
• 12:12
  race.
• 12:12
  But,
• 12:13
  uh,
• 12:13
  Mike Rounds in South Dakota,
• 12:15
  Adam,
• 12:15
  we'll bring that.
• 12:16
  Over to the
• 12:17
  uh likely Republican category
• 12:20
  uh over uh another fake Democrat slash independent
• 12:24
  who is at 94.6% rounds to win that race
• 12:28
  in Georgia,
• 12:29
  you might think Georgia,
• 12:30
  that's,
• 12:30
  that's not gonna be in,
• 12:32
  you know,
• 12:32
  94%.
• 12:33
  We're not gonna be anywhere near that.
• 12:35
  Yeah,
• 12:35
  it is.
• 12:36
  This is not seen as a competitive race by the data.
• 12:38
  And if you're in Georgia,
• 12:40
  you know,
• 12:40
  it's a lot of purple state,
• 12:42
  uh,
• 12:42
  really should have,
• 12:43
  I mean,
• 12:44
  Jon Ossoff should not even have been the senator in that state,
• 12:46
  frankly,
• 12:47
  considering all the craziness that was going on in that period,
• 12:49
  but he won and he's been,
• 12:50
  uh,
• 12:50
  running a good race and he's got a lot of money and he's
• 12:52
  got all the momentum and he's had a 94.2% chance to win.
• 12:55
  This will be a likely Democratic seat.
• 12:58
  Uh,
• 12:59
  Georgia,
• 12:59
  Ossoff over Collins.
• 13:01
  Louisiana,
• 13:02
  93.9%. Julia Letlow,
• 13:05
  a win.
• 13:06
  This will be a lean,
• 13:07
  or excuse me,
• 13:07
  a likely Republican
• 13:09
  seat.
• 13:10
  Just to,
• 13:11
  just to kind of
• 13:12
  restate what I just said.
• 13:14
  Georgia
• 13:15
  is more of a sure thing in this environment,
• 13:18
  according to experts,
• 13:20
  than Louisiana is for Republicans.
• 13:23
  That's the environment we're sitting in,
• 13:24
  boys and girls.
• 13:25
  It's not an easy one for Republicans,
• 13:27
  so,
• 13:27
  uh,
• 13:27
  something to keep in mind as we go forward and,
• 13:29
  and,
• 13:29
  and a way to kind of guard your prediction market positions as well.
• 13:32
  If you kind of like,
• 13:33
  I got a little bit of leeway.
• 13:35
  The leeway you want essentially is the blue
• 13:37
  leeway right now because if it gets worse,
• 13:39
  you want to be covered there.
• 13:40
  Um,
• 13:41
  it,
• 13:41
  it can be,
• 13:42
  uh,
• 13:42
  it can be risky to go the other direction at times.
• 13:44
  Uh,
• 13:45
  Montana,
• 13:45
  another fake Democrat,
• 13:46
  uh,
• 13:46
  going,
• 13:47
  uh,
• 13:47
  uh,
• 13:47
  up against,
• 13:48
  uh,
• 13:48
  Kurt Almay.
• 13:49
  Uh,
• 13:49
  Almay is at 92.7% for a Republican.
• 13:52
  That'll be a likely Republican seat,
• 13:54
  drag that over there.
• 13:56
  Uh,
• 13:56
  we are 44-43 right now.
• 13:58
  It's getting competitive,
• 13:59
  boys and girls.
• 14:00
  North Carolina is next.
• 14:01
  This is another one.
• 14:02
  I think people felt like Georgia,
• 14:03
  uh,
• 14:04
  where this is going to be a really competitive,
• 14:05
  big seat,
• 14:06
  really not turning out to be that way.
• 14:08
  Uh,
• 14:08
  Roy Cooper
• 14:09
  is going to win that race by many estimates.
• 14:11
  He's at 91.2% to win.
• 14:14
  Michael Watley only at 8.8%. This is going to be a likely Democratic seat.
• 14:19
  Uh,
• 14:20
  New Hampshire is up next.
• 14:21
  There was some real hope for New Hampshire because,
• 14:23
  uh,
• 14:23
  John Sununu is a very well-known name.
• 14:25
  We talked to Dan Edros yesterday.
• 14:26
  He has him on his fantasy league team
• 14:28
  as kind of a longshot candidate.
• 14:30
  But the polling has really moved against Sununu recently,
• 14:33
  and because of the Democratic climate
• 14:35
  and a slightly purplish to bluish state anyway,
• 14:39
  really uphill battle for Sununu.
• 14:40
  I think he'll be competitive there,
• 14:41
  but I don't think he's gonna win anyway.
• 14:43
  That has nothing to do with this because the data says 89.2% chance
• 14:47
  that Pappas will win Chris Pappas,
• 14:49
  uh,
• 14:49
  and that will go to a likely Democratic seat.
• 14:53
  Florida.
• 14:54
  Ashley Moody,
• 14:55
  one of my bigger positions,
• 14:56
  to be honest with you.
• 14:57
  Um,
• 14:58
  the data is less positive.
• 15:01
  Uh,
• 15:02
  than the prediction markets are on this one.
• 15:04
  Ashley Moody is at 85.7% chance to win,
• 15:08
  according to,
• 15:08
  uh,
• 15:08
  the predictable midterm consensus,
• 15:10
  the PMC.
• 15:11
  Uh,
• 15:12
  that is lower than her prediction market position,
• 15:14
  which I think is like 91,
• 15:15
  92.
• 15:16
  Uh,
• 15:16
  but Moody will be a likely Republican seat here for our exercise here as we go,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:22
  through the entire Senate race.
• 15:24
  Peggy Flanagan,
• 15:25
  another one that has been,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:27
  really
• 15:27
  for Democrats an odd one because.
• 15:30
  Races they thought would be close are turning out like Georgia and North Carolina,
• 15:33
  right?
• 15:33
  Where they are winning by a good amount.
• 15:36
  This one they didn't think was gonna be that close and is.
• 15:38
  Michelle Tafoy has performed very well.
• 15:40
  She's run a good campaign.
• 15:41
  She's hit Peggy Flanagan on a lot of important issues.
• 15:45
  Peggy Flanagan,
• 15:46
  I mean,
• 15:46
  this is a real negative for her in the state.
• 15:49
  She's tied pretty closely to Tim Walls.
• 15:52
  Anyone who's tied closely to Tim Walls
• 15:54
  is having a bad day.
• 15:55
  Uh,
• 15:56
  so,
• 15:56
  uh,
• 15:56
  right now,
• 15:57
  uh,
• 15:57
  she's still the favorite though,
• 15:58
  83%.
• 15:59
  This will be a likely Democratic,
• 16:01
  uh,
• 16:01
  seat,
• 16:02
  likely Democratic Peggy Flanagan.
• 16:05
  Uh,
• 16:05
  over Michelle Tafoya,
• 16:06
  though,
• 16:06
  I saw a lot of you on your prediction market,
• 16:07
  uh,
• 16:08
  fantasy teams at Senate Fantasy.com
• 16:10
  are looking for long shots and liking Tafoya there.
• 16:12
  And I can't,
• 16:13
  can't blame you.
• 16:14
  She's very competitive and 17 is not a bad price for her.
• 16:16
  Uh,
• 16:17
  Nebraska,
• 16:17
  Dan Osborne,
• 16:18
  fake independent,
• 16:19
  actual Democrat,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:20
  running up against Pete,
• 16:22
  Pete Ricketts in the state.
• 16:23
  Pete Ricketts is a 75.9% favorite,
• 16:27
  uh,
• 16:27
  to win that race that will go over to a likely,
• 16:30
  uh,
• 16:31
  Republican,
• 16:31
  and that is the end of our likely category.
• 16:33
  So right now,
• 16:33
  where are we?
• 16:34
  Uh,
• 16:34
  when we just do the solids and the likelies,
• 16:36
  if,
• 16:36
  if everyone wins that,
• 16:37
  it's 47 Democrats,
• 16:39
  45 Republicans is where we stand right now with 8 still remaining to be placed.
• 16:43
  Remember,
• 16:44
  we're gonna leave 0
• 16:45
  in the toss-ups.
• 16:46
  You're going to know who's controlling the Senate
• 16:49
  if the election were held today and the experts were exactly right.
• 16:51
  Neither of those are true.
• 16:53
  But you're gonna know something else.
• 16:54
  You're gonna know some,
• 16:55
  uh,
• 16:55
  details.
• 16:55
  Let's go to Michigan.
• 16:56
  Michigan is our next state.
• 16:58
  And you know what,
• 16:59
  uh,
• 16:59
  I look at this as a legit toss-up race.
• 17:02
  If I was building this,
• 17:03
  uh,
• 17:04
  myself,
• 17:04
  I would say that Michigan's a toss-up.
• 17:06
  However,
• 17:07
  the data does not agree with that,
• 17:08
  and they see it as a leaner,
• 17:10
  a leaner towards Democrats at 74.9%. Almost likely,
• 17:14
  uh,
• 17:14
  they see it as a,
• 17:15
  uh,
• 17:16
  uh,
• 17:16
  El Sayed over Rodgers.
• 17:17
  It's hard to believe that a guy like El Sayed could
• 17:19
  win in anything other than like California or New York,
• 17:22
  but
• 17:22
  Here he is,
• 17:23
  maybe winning
• 17:24
  in,
• 17:24
  uh,
• 17:25
  in,
• 17:25
  uh,
• 17:26
  Michigan.
• 17:26
  That seat goes to the Democrats.
• 17:28
  Next up,
• 17:29
  Maine,
• 17:30
  Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins,
• 17:33
  and
• 17:34
  Troy Jackson.
• 17:36
  Gets the win here according to the data,
• 17:38
  according to the predictable midterm consensus,
• 17:40
  the PMC,
• 17:41
  not me,
• 17:42
  don't blame me.
• 17:43
  When you get mad at these things,
• 17:44
  don't say Stu's a jerk.
• 17:45
  You put El Sayed in the Democratic column.
• 17:47
  That's not what I'm saying here.
• 17:49
  Um,
• 17:50
  I'm saying the data shows that.
• 17:51
  Uh,
• 17:52
  65.6% chance
• 17:54
  for,
• 17:55
  uh,
• 17:56
  Collins to lose that race
• 17:58
  to Troy Jackson.
• 18:00
  Next up,
• 18:01
  Sherrod Brown,
• 18:02
  John Husted.
• 18:04
  65.1% chance for the winner.
• 18:08
  In this particular exercise,
• 18:10
  Sherrod Brown,
• 18:11
  Brown at 65.1% goes to lean
• 18:14
  Democrat,
• 18:15
  and that puts the Democrats.
• 18:18
  At 50 seats.
• 18:20
  50 seats right now,
• 18:21
  according to this data.
• 18:23
  Next up,
• 18:25
  James Tallarico,
• 18:26
  Ken Paxton,
• 18:27
  the state of Texas,
• 18:28
  it's the one I'm sitting in right now,
• 18:30
  reading you this list.
• 18:32
  The data has it at 64.7%
• 18:36
  for the winner.
• 18:38
  James Tallarico
• 18:40
  Yes,
• 18:41
  uh,
• 18:41
  that's what the experts believe right now.
• 18:43
  James Tallarico to win.
• 18:45
  He has led in most of the polls.
• 18:47
  It's hard for me to imagine.
• 18:49
  I still feel like Ken,
• 18:50
  you know,
• 18:50
  uh,
• 18:51
  Ken Paxton,
• 18:52
  there's some
• 18:52
  potential value there.
• 18:53
  If you think he's gonna win,
• 18:54
  you can get 3,
• 18:55
  you know,
• 18:55
  3 times your money,
• 18:56
  um,
• 18:57
  or 2 times your money,
• 18:57
  I guess,
• 18:58
  uh,
• 18:58
  in,
• 18:59
  in just profits.
• 19:00
  Uh,
• 19:00
  but,
• 19:00
  uh,
• 19:01
  right now,
• 19:02
  the markets don't,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:03
  the data does not believe it.
• 19:05
  Um,
• 19:06
  all right,
• 19:06
  um,
• 19:07
  yeah,
• 19:07
  by the way,
• 19:08
  I wanted to show you this real quick.
• 19:08
  I thought this was interesting.
• 19:09
  Uh,
• 19:10
  Cal she tweeted this out.
• 19:11
  James Tallarico has a 63% chance to to beat Texas,
• 19:14
  uh,
• 19:15
  uh,
• 19:15
  Paxton in the Texas Senate race,
• 19:16
  according to Calci traders.
• 19:17
  But what percentage of Texas Senate traders are buying yes on Tallarico?
• 19:21
  So this is interesting because the money
• 19:23
  going a little heavier,
• 19:24
  um,
• 19:25
  into,
• 19:26
  uh,
• 19:26
  Tallarico,
• 19:27
  uh,
• 19:27
  but in the state.
• 19:29
  Texans,
• 19:29
  only 42% of Texans are saying Tallarico will win.
• 19:33
  48% of non-Texans
• 19:35
  are saying Tallarico will win.
• 19:38
  Now,
• 19:38
  maybe people in Texas know their state better.
• 19:40
  Maybe people in Texas are just more optimistic if they're,
• 19:43
  cause they're more conservative and they're saying they're gonna win.
• 19:45
  I don't know what's causing that.
• 19:47
  They did put a map out here,
• 19:48
  which I thought was interesting and,
• 19:49
  and an interesting lesson for,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  our,
• 19:51
  uh,
• 19:51
  predictable,
• 19:52
  uh,
• 19:52
  constitution.
• 19:53
  Uh,
• 19:54
  which is,
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:55
  uh,
• 19:55
  Amendment 12,
• 19:56
  I believe,
• 19:57
  which is don't invest with your heart.
• 19:58
  Look at this map.
• 20:00
  Uh,
• 20:00
  the,
• 20:01
  the most Talarico dollars are coming from all the blue states.
• 20:05
  And the,
• 20:06
  uh,
• 20:07
  Paxton dollars are all coming from the red states.
• 20:10
  And I,
• 20:10
  like,
• 20:11
  look,
• 20:11
  I'm not,
• 20:12
  uh,
• 20:12
  it's interesting that people are seeing what they want
• 20:15
  to happen as the thing that will happen.
• 20:17
  I,
• 20:17
  I gotta say,
• 20:18
  this is one of the things uh I've capitalized on over the years,
• 20:20
  you probably have as well,
• 20:22
  if you've done well in prediction markets.
• 20:25
  People's hopes and dreams,
• 20:26
  they want something to happen,
• 20:28
  so that's where they put their money.
• 20:29
  And a lot of times you can say,
• 20:31
  hey,
• 20:31
  wait a minute,
• 20:31
  that's not the correct knowledge.
• 20:32
  Our job here is to correct that knowledge.
• 20:34
  And if we can correct the knowledge and we can profit off of it,
• 20:37
  all the better.
• 20:38
  So,
• 20:39
  it's just an interesting thing here that this is happening all across the country.
• 20:42
  When people get on their own,
• 20:43
  they're riding their own train,
• 20:44
  they're thinking to themselves,
• 20:45
  I want this to happen so badly,
• 20:46
  it's gotta happen,
• 20:47
  it's gotta happen.
• 20:48
  That is potentially an opportunity for you to jump into the market and correct that.
• 20:52
  Uh,
• 20:53
  whether you're,
• 20:53
  you know,
• 20:54
  whether you agree with their opinion or,
• 20:55
  or not.
• 20:57
  Oh,
• 20:58
  we skipped South Carolina,
• 20:59
  I am told.
• 20:59
  Let's move South Carolina here.
• 21:01
  This is actually gonna go to the Republican,
• 21:03
  uh,
• 21:04
  likely Republican,
• 21:05
  um,
• 21:06
  Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 21:08
  Again,
• 21:09
  this is one of the biggest disagreements between experts and prediction markets.
• 21:12
  Prediction market is much more,
• 21:14
  uh,
• 21:14
  bullish on Graham Nordone.
• 21:16
  Only 75.8%,
• 21:18
  uh,
• 21:18
  chance,
• 21:19
  uh,
• 21:19
  for Republicans to win in South Carolina.
• 21:22
  It's unbelievable.
• 21:23
  A few more races to go though.
• 21:24
  I did Tallarico,
• 21:25
  right?
• 21:25
  Uh,
• 21:25
  let's do,
• 21:25
  we got Kansas,
• 21:26
  Alaska,
• 21:26
  and Iowa.
• 21:27
  Let's do the last three.
• 21:28
  Kansas,
• 21:30
  60.9%
• 21:31
  chance for the favorite to win.
• 21:33
  Who's it going to be?
• 21:34
  It's going to be
• 21:36
  Roger Marshall.
• 21:37
  According to the current data,
• 21:39
  that will go to a lean,
• 21:40
  lean,
• 21:42
  uh,
• 21:42
  yeah,
• 21:42
  lean.
• 21:43
  There you go.
• 21:44
  Um,
• 21:44
  I mean,
• 21:45
  it doesn't really matter if we're putting them in lean or we're putting them in,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:47
  likelies,
• 21:47
  but lean Republican for,
• 21:50
  uh,
• 21:50
  Kansas and Roger Marshall over Adam Hamilton.
• 21:52
  I will say that some of the data,
• 21:53
  some of the polling doesn't necessarily agree with that.
• 21:56
  Uh,
• 21:56
  but very,
• 21:56
  very close race,
• 21:57
  60.9%,
• 21:59
  says the PMC,
• 22:00
  the consensus data.
• 22:02
  Next up is Alaska.
• 22:03
  Two more to go.
• 22:05
  Alaska,
• 22:06
  the winner
• 22:07
  right now,
• 22:08
  if the election were held today and the experts were all perfectly correct.
• 22:12
  59.5% chance we'll give the state to
• 22:15
  the Democrats.
• 22:17
  Mary Peltola,
• 22:18
  59.5%
• 22:20
  to win
• 22:21
  Alaska.
• 22:22
  And finally,
• 22:23
  we have one more to go in Iowa,
• 22:25
  the closest state.
• 22:27
  This is the one that's on the razor's edge.
• 22:30
  51.3%.
• 22:32
  So just over 50%.
• 22:33
  This is clearly a toss-up state.
• 22:35
  However,
• 22:36
  We have to move it.
• 22:37
  We promised you we wouldn't chicken out.
• 22:39
  We wouldn't wuss out.
• 22:40
  And,
• 22:40
  you know,
• 22:41
  considering it's not really my opinion,
• 22:42
  it's just the,
• 22:43
  uh,
• 22:43
  the data,
• 22:44
  I,
• 22:44
  I,
• 22:45
  we're not really,
• 22:45
  there would be no reason to wuss out,
• 22:46
  but that's not totally,
• 22:47
  um,
• 22:48
  it,
• 22:48
  it hurts me building the drama if I say it that way.
• 22:51
  Iowa,
• 22:51
  51.3% chance.
• 22:53
  That one goes to
• 22:55
  Ashley Hinson,
• 22:56
  a Republican.
• 22:58
  In Iowa,
• 22:59
  so that's the final toll,
• 23:01
  if you believe the data and the experts right now that they're perfect,
• 23:04
  and of course the election were held today,
• 23:06
  we've got a couple of weeks until that is going to happen.
• 23:08
  But this
• 23:09
  analysis brings it to 52% for Democrats,
• 23:13
  48%
• 23:14
  for Republicans.
• 23:16
  All right,
• 23:16
  we gotta take a break.
• 23:17
  Uh,
• 23:17
  that's the break,
• 23:18
  we're gonna talk to PMT,
• 23:19
  big time trader on the prediction markets,
• 23:20
  made hundreds of thousands of dollars.
• 23:22
  He's a big deal.
• 23:24
  We'll talk to him
• 23:25
  next.
• 23:43
  Happy to welcome PMT back to the program.
• 23:46
  He is a prediction market trader.
• 23:47
  You can follow him on X under the handle Pred Mtrader.
• 23:51
  Uh,
• 23:51
  in fact,
• 23:52
  I think PMT,
• 23:52
  you were the very first guest we had on,
• 23:55
  uh,
• 23:55
  this predictable project we've launched here.
• 23:57
  Uh,
• 23:58
  so welcome back to the program,
• 23:59
  PMT.
• 24:00
  Thank you.
• 24:01
  Yeah,
• 24:01
  great to be back.
• 24:01
  Um,
• 24:02
  I think last time I was here it was going into the State of the Union,
• 24:05
  if I remember correctly,
• 24:06
  you're right.
• 24:06
  Yeah,
• 24:07
  I think you're right.
• 24:07
  Yeah,
• 24:07
  we rolled into that.
• 24:08
  I,
• 24:09
  we did OK on that.
• 24:10
  I,
• 24:10
  I at least I did OK.
• 24:11
  I think you did better than I did honestly on that one.
• 24:13
  but that's,
• 24:14
  that's the story of my mention market life,
• 24:16
  uh,
• 24:16
  in comparison to you,
• 24:17
  uh,
• 24:17
  PMT.
• 24:18
  So,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:19
  thanks so much for coming back on,
• 24:20
  um.
• 24:21
  Uh,
• 24:21
  I have a million questions for you and probably not enough time for all of them,
• 24:24
  but let me start with mention markets.
• 24:26
  That's been,
• 24:26
  you know,
• 24:27
  at least kind of maybe what you're known for.
• 24:28
  I know you trade on all sorts of different markets,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:30
  but that's been maybe your specialty.
• 24:32
  Uh,
• 24:33
  I wanna run by,
• 24:35
  um,
• 24:35
  this is just me looking for counseling.
• 24:37
  I wanna run by,
• 24:38
  uh,
• 24:39
  one of my thesis,
• 24:40
  uh,
• 24:40
  statements here on this particular election,
• 24:43
  which is,
• 24:43
  I'm into the debates.
• 24:44
  I've,
• 24:44
  I've really liked jumping in the debate mention markets.
• 24:48
  And my,
• 24:48
  my kind of active thesis is in every single debate,
• 24:52
  no matter what,
• 24:53
  someone,
• 24:54
  usually a local journalist,
• 24:56
  will ask about data centers.
• 24:58
  Like that is going to happen every single time.
• 25:00
  Usually,
• 25:01
  by the way,
• 25:02
  in the second half of the debate,
• 25:03
  it's not a lead question.
• 25:05
  Second half of the debate,
• 25:05
  have you found that one to be legitimate?
• 25:07
  Am I thinking the right way on that?
• 25:09
  I think you're thinking the right way,
• 25:10
  honestly,
• 25:11
  um,
• 25:12
  and,
• 25:12
  uh,
• 25:12
  I mean,
• 25:14
  interesting angles like that,
• 25:15
  and you mentioned that
• 25:16
  it will usually only come in maybe the second half of the debate,
• 25:19
  so there's an angle there where,
• 25:21
  um,
• 25:21
  if in the 1st 20 minutes,
• 25:23
  you know,
• 25:23
  you see data center prices start to kind of
• 25:26
  tumble down,
• 25:27
  maybe you can pick up some yes shares for cheap,
• 25:29
  but,
• 25:29
  um,
• 25:30
  I,
• 25:30
  I think that's probably a,
• 25:31
  a good angle.
• 25:32
  I haven't played too many.
• 25:33
  Any of the debates,
• 25:34
  um,
• 25:34
  but I would,
• 25:35
  I would guess that some of the debate mentions,
• 25:37
  uh,
• 25:38
  probably
• 25:40
  tend to have really good prices,
• 25:41
  and you could probably take advantage of them because they're a little
• 25:43
  bit lower volume than like your Trump rallies and things like that.
• 25:47
  Yeah,
• 25:47
  I,
• 25:47
  you've hit the one weakness of the debates,
• 25:49
  which is the,
• 25:49
  the volume's really low on them,
• 25:51
  a lot of them.
• 25:51
  I,
• 25:52
  I,
• 25:52
  even the big races like Michigan in the Senate where you
• 25:55
  kind of think people will be really talking about it.
• 25:57
  It just,
• 25:57
  the,
• 25:58
  the,
• 25:58
  it's,
• 25:58
  it's too late to make
• 26:00
  tons and tons of money.
• 26:01
  I will say,
• 26:01
  however,
• 26:02
  the data,
• 26:02
  data centers thing I've hit on like,
• 26:04
  you know,
• 26:05
  7 or 8 in a row on that one and usually the price isn't great,
• 26:08
  but it's just fun.
• 26:09
  Um,
• 26:10
  the other one though is what's interesting about the debates is
• 26:13
  these people are around talking
• 26:15
  all the time
• 26:15
  and their whole job is to maintain discipline to a particular message,
• 26:21
  right?
• 26:21
  Like they,
• 26:21
  they,
• 26:22
  when they're going around,
• 26:23
  they're doing these speeches all the time,
• 26:24
  they're repeating themselves constantly.
• 26:26
  And if you kind of get a sense as to what is in a couple of those stump speeches,
• 26:32
  they can't help but bring those points out
• 26:34
  because it's just ingrained in their minds.
• 26:36
  That's kind of like where I've looked for leads on those.
• 26:39
  Is that the right way to look at it?
• 26:40
  Well,
• 26:40
  how do you research this and think to yourself,
• 26:42
  uh,
• 26:42
  I gotta find the right position for the next bencher market?
• 26:46
  Yeah,
• 26:46
  I mean,
• 26:46
  I,
• 26:46
  I think you're kind of spot on there and,
• 26:48
  uh,
• 26:49
  even outside of debates,
• 26:50
  right?
• 26:50
  I mean,
• 26:50
  you think of someone like Trump,
• 26:52
  right?
• 26:52
  He has his,
• 26:53
  his typical messaging that
• 26:54
  he's almost always going to stick to,
• 26:56
  and,
• 26:56
  you know,
• 26:56
  the funny thing with Trump in terms of finding edges sometimes is,
• 27:00
  um,
• 27:01
  you know,
• 27:01
  oftentimes
• 27:02
  Trump maybe would be scheduled to give a certain speech on a certain topic,
• 27:06
  maybe on his,
• 27:08
  you know,
• 27:08
  new tax bill or on,
• 27:10
  um,
• 27:10
  you know,
• 27:11
  uh,
• 27:11
  pharmaceutical drug prices,
• 27:13
  but
• 27:14
  Um,
• 27:14
  you can know,
• 27:15
  just being Trump,
• 27:16
  it's not hard for him to veer off into talking about Iran
• 27:19
  or talking about the Save America Act or all these others.
• 27:22
  So,
• 27:23
  um,
• 27:23
  I,
• 27:24
  I,
• 27:24
  I think you kind of
• 27:25
  nailed the point there,
• 27:26
  um,
• 27:27
  and I think it especially applies to people like,
• 27:30
  uh,
• 27:30
  Trump who definitely has his specific talking points,
• 27:33
  and I'm sure other,
• 27:34
  you know,
• 27:34
  political candidates.
• 27:35
  Um,
• 27:36
  I,
• 27:36
  I think really finding an edge in mention markets is just getting that unique angle,
• 27:41
  um,
• 27:41
  to where
• 27:42
  Uh,
• 27:43
  you know,
• 27:43
  finding something that other people kind of aren't considering,
• 27:46
  and the benefit there as well with the mention market
• 27:48
  is you only have to focus on one strike,
• 27:50
  right?
• 27:51
  There's,
• 27:51
  there's 20 listed.
• 27:52
  If you can find a unique edge on a specific one,
• 27:56
  then
• 27:56
  it's all you need.
• 27:57
  Yeah,
• 27:57
  the,
• 27:58
  the Trump is really interesting because,
• 28:00
  you know,
• 28:00
  like,
• 28:00
  obviously some of these candidates are super like on message,
• 28:03
  right?
• 28:03
  They're very,
• 28:04
  they're very,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:05
  disciplined.
• 28:06
  You know,
• 28:06
  Trump has his talking points.
• 28:07
  He says a lot of the same things,
• 28:09
  but he's the exact opposite of disciplined,
• 28:11
  right?
• 28:11
  Like it's a pharmaceutical conference and they're like,
• 28:13
  well,
• 28:13
  why would he,
• 28:14
  you know,
• 28:15
  why would he say Democrats in the middle of this?
• 28:17
  He will,
• 28:17
  probably.
• 28:18
  Yeah,
• 28:18
  he'll just blurt it out at some point.
• 28:20
  When
• 28:21
  the,
• 28:21
  the most exciting time I think in any mention
• 28:23
  market is when you realize Trump has gone from
• 28:27
  a guy who's really bored with a speech,
• 28:28
  who's just reading it and wants to get out of the room,
• 28:30
  which does happen occasionally.
• 28:31
  2,
• 28:32
  I'm ready to mix it up.
• 28:33
  Let's go.
• 28:34
  When you see that glint in his eyes,
• 28:36
  I mean,
• 28:37
  he's gonna say pretty much every single one of the options in a mention market.
• 28:42
  Oh yeah,
• 28:42
  as soon as he gets off of a,
• 28:44
  uh,
• 28:44
  you know,
• 28:44
  reading a teleprompter prepared speech,
• 28:47
  you,
• 28:47
  you just know he's gonna weave.
• 28:48
  I remember
• 28:49
  when they announced the america.gov website,
• 28:53
  I think this was 2 weeks ago,
• 28:54
  he had made it through the whole speech without saying almost anything,
• 28:57
  and then in the final like 30 seconds,
• 29:00
  he somehow got onto Iran,
• 29:02
  says they can't have a nuclear weapon,
• 29:03
  and just started going off the whole,
• 29:05
  you know,
• 29:06
  talking point,
• 29:06
  hitting almost every strike.
• 29:08
  Yeah,
• 29:08
  it is,
• 29:09
  those are,
• 29:09
  those are really,
• 29:10
  really fun.
• 29:10
  Um,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:11
  I want to,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:12
  go to another area of,
• 29:13
  of prediction markets.
• 29:14
  This is,
• 29:14
  I,
• 29:15
  to my understanding,
• 29:16
  pretty much new,
• 29:17
  um,
• 29:17
  which are these combos play plays.
• 29:19
  Now,
• 29:19
  of course,
• 29:20
  they're very familiar in sports,
• 29:22
  right?
• 29:22
  Like some people call them parlays if you want to get into that,
• 29:24
  of course,
• 29:24
  we don't,
• 29:25
  we don't look at it as gambling,
• 29:26
  we look at it as investing here,
• 29:27
  um,
• 29:27
  but
• 29:28
  when you look just for people who are familiar with what we're talking about,
• 29:31
  I really like the idea of combos in election markets.
• 29:36
  And,
• 29:37
  uh,
• 29:37
  you know,
• 29:37
  I have clicked around.
• 29:39
  Calci has just started to offer these,
• 29:41
  um,
• 29:41
  at least I had,
• 29:42
  the first time I had seen them,
• 29:44
  and you can kind of just design your own,
• 29:45
  right?
• 29:45
  It's,
• 29:46
  you can click around and add different contracts and make them really,
• 29:49
  really long and,
• 29:50
  and,
• 29:50
  and everything else.
• 29:51
  When I've done it,
• 29:52
  I haven't seen a,
• 29:53
  a,
• 29:54
  a huge explosion of value yet.
• 29:56
  I did see a tweet from you,
• 29:57
  however,
• 29:57
  which I think this is fascinating,
• 29:59
  and I,
• 29:59
  I,
• 29:59
  I wanna talk this through.
• 30:00
  This is,
• 30:00
  uh,
• 30:01
  this is what a tweet from you says,
• 30:02
  is this hidden?
• 30:03
  Um,
• 30:04
  uh,
• 30:04
  you have $5000 on a combo,
• 30:08
  uh,
• 30:08
  that would pay $48,000.
• 30:10
  These are,
• 30:11
  this is,
• 30:11
  uh,
• 30:12
  see if I can read all of them.
• 30:13
  Democratic Party,
• 30:14
  who will win,
• 30:14
  uh,
• 30:15
  who will win the Senate.
• 30:15
  So there's some risk to that one for sure.
• 30:18
  Democratic Party,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:19
  Alaska Senate winner,
• 30:20
  Troy Jackson winning in,
• 30:21
  in,
• 30:21
  uh,
• 30:22
  in Maine,
• 30:23
  Abdul El Sayed in Michigan,
• 30:24
  Sherrod Brown in Ohio,
• 30:26
  and James Tallarico
• 30:27
  in Texas.
• 30:28
  Now,
• 30:28
  all of those
• 30:30
  are,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:31
  none of those are sure things,
• 30:32
  you know,
• 30:32
  some of those are kind of real toss-ups,
• 30:34
  some of those are leaners.
• 30:36
  But what's fascinating about that and how,
• 30:38
  what the price you got on it,
• 30:39
  which was,
• 30:40
  you know,
• 30:40
  11 or 12X.
• 30:42
  Is that they're all heavily correlated,
• 30:45
  right?
• 30:45
  Like that shouldn't be,
• 30:46
  it's unlike sports where,
• 30:47
  uh,
• 30:47
  you know,
• 30:47
  the Jets win and the Eagles win are totally different outcomes.
• 30:51
  These are all correlated outcomes.
• 30:52
  How is it,
• 30:53
  how did you get this price?
• 30:55
  Yeah,
• 30:55
  so it it it's a really funny story and,
• 30:58
  um,
• 30:58
  so I would say,
• 30:59
  uh,
• 31:00
  for,
• 31:00
  for combos in general,
• 31:01
  right,
• 31:02
  uh,
• 31:02
  they've long existed on,
• 31:03
  on sports,
• 31:04
  um.
• 31:05
  And,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:06
  have slowly been expanding.
• 31:07
  They even have crypto,
• 31:08
  and now we're just seeing politics.
• 31:10
  So,
• 31:10
  as,
• 31:11
  as a market maker for combos,
• 31:13
  um,
• 31:14
  to your point,
• 31:15
  if you're,
• 31:16
  if you're quoting multiple legs that are independent of each other,
• 31:19
  it's really easy,
• 31:20
  right?
• 31:21
  You just multiply
• 31:22
  the probability of each underlying leg,
• 31:25
  um,
• 31:25
  but
• 31:26
  even in sports,
• 31:28
  there can be times where,
• 31:29
  um,
• 31:30
  You know,
• 31:30
  two legs are correlated with one another,
• 31:32
  and that's where as a market maker,
• 31:34
  it becomes very difficult to price.
• 31:36
  Um,
• 31:37
  and now when you bring politics into the mix,
• 31:40
  which,
• 31:40
  you know,
• 31:41
  obviously is extremely correlated,
• 31:43
  um,
• 31:44
  that's where
• 31:45
  it becomes very difficult for market makers to kind of
• 31:48
  price,
• 31:49
  you know,
• 31:49
  what is the correlation between,
• 31:51
  you know,
• 31:51
  You know,
• 31:51
  uh,
• 31:52
  a Democratic sweep or a Republican sweep.
• 31:54
  I mean,
• 31:54
  you can look at like 2024,
• 31:56
  right?
• 31:56
  That was a race
• 31:57
  for the presidency that was neck and neck,
• 31:59
  but I think a lot of people kind of knew it was going
• 32:01
  to break one way and you saw Trump won all the swing states,
• 32:04
  and it easily could have gone the other way.
• 32:05
  Um,
• 32:05
  but anyways,
• 32:06
  on this specifically,
• 32:08
  you know,
• 32:08
  this was,
• 32:09
  uh,
• 32:09
  right around when,
• 32:10
  um,
• 32:11
  it was actually minutes after.
• 32:13
  The election combos had dropped
• 32:16
  and immediately my first thought was,
• 32:19
  uh,
• 32:20
  is there a market maker that is not pricing correlation correctly?
• 32:23
  And,
• 32:24
  uh,
• 32:24
  I got,
• 32:25
  uh,
• 32:25
  you know,
• 32:25
  lucky that there was,
• 32:27
  and there was a market maker also with very big limits.
• 32:30
  Um,
• 32:30
  I,
• 32:31
  I was not expecting
• 32:32
  to be able to get down as much money as I could.
• 32:34
  Um,
• 32:36
  and,
• 32:36
  uh,
• 32:36
  that was kind of where those combos originated.
• 32:38
  So obviously,
• 32:39
  to your point as well,
• 32:39
  like,
• 32:41
  That could easily lose,
• 32:43
  but,
• 32:43
  um,
• 32:43
  it's a very plus EV,
• 32:45
  you know,
• 32:46
  position to have,
• 32:47
  obviously.
• 32:47
  I think fair value of it is,
• 32:49
  you know,
• 32:49
  arguably above kind of 30 cents versus the 10 cents we got it at.
• 32:53
  Um,
• 32:53
  and,
• 32:54
  and that's,
• 32:54
  that's really when you're thinking about these combos,
• 32:56
  it's a new area,
• 32:58
  um,
• 32:59
  and,
• 32:59
  uh,
• 33:00
  You know,
• 33:00
  if you're creative,
• 33:01
  maybe you can find certain races that are correlated that a market maker isn't
• 33:06
  pricing correctly.
• 33:07
  Yeah,
• 33:08
  and,
• 33:08
  uh,
• 33:08
  just,
• 33:08
  and to,
• 33:09
  to be clear,
• 33:09
  like I can't click on those states.
• 33:11
  I can't click on those uh combinations right now and get the same price you got,
• 33:14
  right?
• 33:14
  Like that's,
• 33:15
  that's not happening.
• 33:16
  Yeah,
• 33:16
  yeah,
• 33:16
  yeah,
• 33:17
  I,
• 33:17
  I think after he got hit for a lot of those because that's not the only,
• 33:21
  you know,
• 33:22
  one,
• 33:23
  they probably stopped quoting them as.
• 33:24
  Uh,
• 33:26
  large,
• 33:26
  yeah,
• 33:27
  and we,
• 33:27
  we talked about just in case,
• 33:28
  you know,
• 33:28
  you're,
• 33:28
  you're maybe
• 33:30
  understandably some of this,
• 33:31
  if you're not a traitor goes a little bit
• 33:32
  over your head when you have a situation where,
• 33:34
  like,
• 33:34
  for example,
• 33:35
  one of the options is the Democrats winning the Senate.
• 33:37
  If they win all those other races,
• 33:39
  quite obviously they're winning the Senate.
• 33:40
  There's no way they would lose the Senate in that circumstance.
• 33:43
  And
• 33:43
  if it's a good enough Democratic year for,
• 33:46
  you know,
• 33:46
  let's say Democrats to win in Texas and,
• 33:48
  uh,
• 33:49
  Uh,
• 33:49
  you know,
• 33:50
  Michigan and all these other states,
• 33:52
  probably the other states are gonna go that way as well.
• 33:54
  So
• 33:54
  that's what we're talking about when you're talking about real value there.
• 33:57
  Um,
• 33:59
  well,
• 33:59
  let's talk about the,
• 33:59
  the Senate a little bit as far as just regular wins and losses here.
• 34:03
  Um,
• 34:03
  you actually have a,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:04
  I was told you have a,
• 34:05
  uh,
• 34:05
  uh,
• 34:06
  Senate fantasy league team.
• 34:07
  Is that,
• 34:07
  is this right,
• 34:08
  PMT?
• 34:08
  Are you in?
• 34:09
  That is,
• 34:09
  that is correct.
• 34:10
  I,
• 34:10
  I filled one out,
• 34:11
  uh,
• 34:11
  this morning.
• 34:11
  I was,
• 34:12
  I,
• 34:12
  I love like contests,
• 34:14
  um,
• 34:14
  even in,
• 34:15
  uh,
• 34:15
  on the,
• 34:16
  I,
• 34:16
  I do trade a lot of sports.
• 34:17
  So I do survivor contests sometimes I'll enter into,
• 34:20
  and I kind of liked
• 34:21
  this idea of the contest.
• 34:23
  I did build out
• 34:24
  a,
• 34:24
  uh,
• 34:25
  uh,
• 34:26
  you know,
• 34:26
  a fantasy roster for the,
• 34:28
  for the Senate.
• 34:29
  Yeah,
• 34:29
  it's,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:29
  it's out,
• 34:30
  the team is called Jeb is a mess.
• 34:32
  It is up there.
• 34:32
  You can see it.
• 34:33
  Uh,
• 34:33
  PFT is on the board.
• 34:35
  Uh,
• 34:35
  so you're gonna be going against some,
• 34:36
  uh,
• 34:36
  some real experts here.
• 34:38
  Um,
• 34:38
  but,
• 34:39
  uh,
• 34:39
  it's Senate Fantasy.com,
• 34:40
  by the way,
• 34:40
  if you wanna jump in and take on PMT,
• 34:43
  um,
• 34:43
  we,
• 34:43
  uh,
• 34:44
  as I was looking at these races,
• 34:45
  you know,
• 34:46
  I,
• 34:46
  I think everyone kind of has this assumption,
• 34:48
  and I think correct,
• 34:49
  uh,
• 34:49
  correctly,
• 34:49
  that this is going to be a,
• 34:50
  a,
• 34:51
  a Democratic year,
• 34:51
  right?
• 34:52
  Like this,
• 34:52
  uh,
• 34:52
  that's history.
• 34:53
  Tells us that's gonna happen even if things were going perfectly.
• 34:56
  Probably be a democratic year.
• 34:58
  Things may be not going all that perfectly at the moment
• 35:00
  in some areas.
• 35:01
  So
• 35:02
  we kind of see this.
• 35:02
  There's a,
• 35:03
  there's a wave
• 35:04
  sort of a gap here though,
• 35:06
  right?
• 35:06
  There's the,
• 35:06
  the blue ripple all the way to the blue tsunami.
• 35:09
  When you're thinking about these markets,
• 35:10
  are you trying to figure out which one of them that it is
• 35:14
  and then playing,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  that way,
• 35:16
  or are you looking for things that you think are
• 35:18
  more sure things to try to lock in value?
• 35:21
  Yeah,
• 35:22
  you know,
• 35:22
  um,
• 35:23
  I,
• 35:23
  I would say I'm,
• 35:24
  I'm probably
• 35:25
  on the ladder where I'm more looking for things that
• 35:29
  are as close to a sure thing as possible.
• 35:31
  Obviously,
• 35:32
  there's risk in everything,
• 35:33
  but,
• 35:33
  you know,
• 35:34
  something I like about your content actually today I saw,
• 35:37
  um,
• 35:37
  was,
• 35:38
  uh,
• 35:38
  you had a post about Ilhan Omar,
• 35:41
  um,
• 35:41
  and those are the exact,
• 35:43
  you know,
• 35:43
  positions that I really like.
• 35:45
  I,
• 35:45
  I did start buying a lot of Ilhan Omar seeing your post today.
• 35:48
  Nice,
• 35:48
  um.
• 35:49
  But that is where the majority of my bankroll is,
• 35:53
  is allocated,
• 35:54
  um,
• 35:54
  and what I would say is,
• 35:56
  um,
• 35:57
  you know,
• 35:57
  you,
• 35:58
  you look at things like.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:01
  Becerra to win in California.
• 36:03
  You know,
• 36:04
  I,
• 36:04
  I would probably put that at,
• 36:06
  you know,
• 36:06
  99.8,
• 36:08
  90.
• 36:08
  I mean,
• 36:09
  you know,
• 36:09
  it's hard once you get that high,
• 36:11
  but,
• 36:11
  and I mean,
• 36:12
  if you,
• 36:13
  depending on which exchange you're,
• 36:14
  you're looking at,
• 36:15
  you can get that for 95 cents,
• 36:17
  94 cents,
• 36:18
  um.
• 36:19
  You know,
• 36:20
  to,
• 36:21
  to,
• 36:21
  to many people,
• 36:22
  that sounds very,
• 36:23
  very boring,
• 36:23
  and I understand,
• 36:25
  right?
• 36:25
  Like who wants to pick up 5 cents,
• 36:27
  but,
• 36:27
  you know,
• 36:28
  when you think about it from just value,
• 36:30
  right?
• 36:30
  You're,
• 36:30
  you're getting about 4 to 5 cents of edge
• 36:33
  versus if you buy someone like Tallarico at 62 cents,
• 36:36
  you know,
• 36:37
  in order for that to be a good trade,
• 36:38
  Tallarico's fair value would have to be 67 or 68 cents.
• 36:41
  So,
• 36:42
  Um,
• 36:43
  I am definitely highly allocated into those,
• 36:46
  you know,
• 36:46
  what a lot of people would call,
• 36:47
  you know,
• 36:47
  bonds,
• 36:48
  um,
• 36:49
  because that's where I think there is a lot of value.
• 36:51
  And then,
• 36:51
  um,
• 36:52
  because I was able to get a lot of those,
• 36:54
  you know,
• 36:55
  plus EV combos,
• 36:56
  I am hoping for a,
• 36:57
  uh,
• 36:58
  Dem sweep or I also have some Republican sweep versions of the one.
• 37:02
  yeah,
• 37:03
  yeah,
• 37:03
  no,
• 37:04
  I,
• 37:04
  that,
• 37:04
  because that's,
• 37:05
  I have a lot of those too,
• 37:06
  and I,
• 37:06
  I think people do look at those sometimes,
• 37:08
  they're like,
• 37:08
  oh gosh,
• 37:08
  it's a 9 or 10%.
• 37:10
  You know,
• 37:10
  the Elon Omara is a good example in that like she has
• 37:12
  this kind of story that brings her from 98.6% chance to win
• 37:17
  down to 91 or 92.
• 37:21
  Like,
• 37:21
  you know,
• 37:21
  look,
• 37:22
  I,
• 37:22
  my,
• 37:23
  my theory,
• 37:23
  I don't know if this is in the clip that you saw,
• 37:24
  but my theory is even if she got arrested and they started a deportation process,
• 37:28
  she'd still win that election.
• 37:30
  Like I,
• 37:30
  I think
• 37:31
  there's,
• 37:32
  she's up 40 points.
• 37:33
  Like there's no or,
• 37:34
  you know,
• 37:34
  you would have to,
• 37:35
  she'd have to get deported,
• 37:36
  leave the state within like two weeks,
• 37:38
  you know,
• 37:39
  it's.
• 37:40
  I was,
• 37:40
  I was hoping to go on there and find a margin
• 37:42
  market that where I could get her plus like 20 for,
• 37:44
  for,
• 37:44
  you know,
• 37:45
  you know,
• 37:45
  80 cents or something.
• 37:46
  The,
• 37:47
  the,
• 37:47
  the lowest margin market is her plus 47.
• 37:50
  Like,
• 37:51
  like
• 37:51
  there's,
• 37:52
  and it's,
• 37:53
  it's the same thing with California,
• 37:54
  you know,
• 37:54
  I think Bacera,
• 37:55
  the lowest margin is like 12 plus,
• 37:57
  um.
• 37:58
  You know,
• 37:58
  Kathy Hochel,
• 37:59
  it starts to get a little more risky there,
• 38:01
  but like,
• 38:02
  I've found on exchanges,
• 38:04
  Kathy Hochel at 91 cents,
• 38:05
  92 cents,
• 38:06
  you know,
• 38:07
  so that's incredible to me because I view Hochel as
• 38:11
  maybe 98,
• 38:11
  99% fair value,
• 38:13
  um,
• 38:14
  and especially someone who's trading like you,
• 38:16
  uh,
• 38:16
  uh,
• 38:16
  you know,
• 38:16
  as much as you are,
• 38:17
  and,
• 38:18
  and,
• 38:18
  and this is,
• 38:19
  this is the advantage of being you where you have all these different things where,
• 38:23
  you know,
• 38:23
  it's sports,
• 38:24
  it's,
• 38:24
  uh,
• 38:24
  it's mentions and everything else,
• 38:25
  cause you can roll that over a lot.
• 38:28
  One of the things I've found that's a little more
• 38:29
  difficult in that like elections are largely my focus,
• 38:32
  it was very fun to do this during primary season because every
• 38:35
  Tuesday you have this like scheduled thing where I could take 5678,
• 38:39
  9% all over the board
• 38:41
  and really not have any uh risk to it at all.
• 38:44
  Um,
• 38:45
  with elections,
• 38:46
  you know,
• 38:46
  we're coming in here and it's tempting.
• 38:48
  You want to go into some of these more risky contracts,
• 38:50
  but
• 38:51
  as we've seen,
• 38:51
  if you have one of those that,
• 38:53
  you know,
• 38:54
  66,
• 38:54
  you buy into and that loses.
• 38:57
  You blow up a lot of 9 and 10% wins.
• 39:00
  Um,
• 39:00
  so you have to be very,
• 39:01
  very careful on that.
• 39:03
  Um,
• 39:04
  uh,
• 39:04
  PMT,
• 39:04
  there's so many more questions I'd love to ask you,
• 39:06
  and we'd love to have you back on again,
• 39:07
  but we're out of time for today.
• 39:09
  Uh,
• 39:09
  should people just follow you on X?
• 39:10
  What's the best way to follow your content?
• 39:13
  Yeah,
• 39:13
  just follow me on X.
• 39:14
  I,
• 39:14
  I post about,
• 39:15
  uh,
• 39:15
  prediction markets every day.
• 39:17
  Yeah,
• 39:18
  you do a great,
• 39:18
  great content and oh I get great ideas.
• 39:20
  I kind of was like,
• 39:21
  hey,
• 39:21
  can you guys not keep
• 39:23
  tagging Calshi in your tweets about these mention markets,
• 39:26
  uh,
• 39:26
  and these combos because I want to try to take advantage of them,
• 39:29
  but they were,
• 39:30
  they were,
• 39:30
  I'll DM you first next time.
• 39:31
  OK,
• 39:32
  thank you so much.
• 39:33
  Uh,
• 39:33
  PMT,
• 39:33
  thanks so much for coming on the program.
• 39:34
  We'll talk to you soon.
• 39:35
  Take care.
• 39:51
  Here's one I kinda like,
• 39:53
  and this is just when I find a market that I kinda like.
• 39:55
  I haven't done tons and tons of research and I just find it intriguing,
• 39:58
  OK?
• 39:59
  And,
• 39:59
  uh,
• 40:00
  this 1 may resolve today or maybe not.
• 40:03
  Uh,
• 40:03
  this is Tesla to set it's,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:05
  unveil its next generation Roadster sports EV after years of delay.
• 40:09
  Long story to this one.
• 40:11
  the first ever Tesla was called the Tesla Roadster.
• 40:14
  Uh,
• 40:14
  they've,
• 40:14
  you know,
• 40:15
  eventually stopped making it,
• 40:16
  went to the,
• 40:17
  you know,
• 40:17
  the Model 3 and the Model Y and the S and the X and all the other things,
• 40:19
  Cybertruck,
• 40:20
  all that.
• 40:21
  Um,
• 40:22
  they announced in 2017,
• 40:24
  2017,
• 40:25
  they were going to have
• 40:26
  a Tesla Roadster,
• 40:28
  a new version of it,
• 40:29
  and they've talked about it throughout 2017 all the way up to like 2020.
• 40:32
  They talked about it a lot right before COVID.
• 40:34
  Um,
• 40:35
  and then it just never happened.
• 40:36
  People were,
• 40:36
  they were taking $50,000 deposits on these cars
• 40:39
  and saying they were gonna cost $200,000
• 40:42
  and have never produced one of these cars.
• 40:45
  Well,
• 40:45
  tonight,
• 40:46
  that they're having a big event,
• 40:47
  that's the expectation they're going to be,
• 40:50
  uh,
• 40:50
  you know,
• 40:51
  revealing the brand new roadster after a very long delay.
• 40:54
  Um,
• 40:55
  here is,
• 40:55
  uh,
• 40:55
  Elon Musk's tweet.
• 40:56
  He says,
• 40:56
  timing is everything,
• 40:57
  an interesting part of this now.
• 40:59
  Um,
• 41:00
  Roadster event streaming live this Thursday,
• 41:02
  7:55 p.m. Central.
• 41:04
  Now,
• 41:04
  of course,
• 41:05
  you know,
• 41:05
  Austin is in Central time.
• 41:07
  Um,
• 41:07
  but I want you to hold that picture there for a second.
• 41:09
  Um,
• 41:10
  because if,
• 41:10
  if you just for a moment,
• 41:12
  take a,
• 41:13
  take a moment and,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  turn your head upside down as you're looking at the phone,
• 41:16
  and I know,
• 41:17
  or,
• 41:17
  or the screen,
• 41:18
  and it kinda like,
• 41:19
  uh,
• 41:19
  it kinda looks like there's like jets coming out of the bottom
• 41:22
  of a car if you kind of turn your head upside down.
• 41:25
  OK?
• 41:25
  That's what this photo looks like.
• 41:26
  You can't really tell what it is.
• 41:28
  It's,
• 41:28
  it's just,
• 41:28
  you know,
• 41:29
  who knows.
• 41:30
  Now,
• 41:30
  this car was supposed to go 0 to 60.
• 41:32
  At first,
• 41:32
  it was supposed to be under 2 seconds,
• 41:33
  then it was supposed to be like 1.5 seconds.
• 41:35
  There's some rumors that might do it in less than a second,
• 41:38
  which I think would just give you whiplash.
• 41:39
  I don't know.
• 41:40
  Um,
• 41:40
  but
• 41:41
  there's an interesting little nugget there
• 41:43
  with the time.
• 41:44
  Why 7:55 Central time instead of 8:55 Eastern,
• 41:48
  which is how most
• 41:49
  companies would talk about that.
• 41:50
  Um,
• 41:51
  this is a,
• 41:52
  this is super geek,
• 41:53
  has said this on Twitter,
• 41:54
  but it is very much replicated by many other commenters.
• 41:57
  In pop culture and Tesla event history,
• 41:59
  7:55,
• 42:00
  1955 military time
• 42:02
  is famously referenced in an Easter egg of the movie Back to the Future,
• 42:05
  matching the 7:55 time in the opening scene clock and
• 42:08
  1955 as the year Marty travels to.
• 42:12
  A Back to the Future reference.
• 42:14
  The rumor is,
• 42:15
  and he's talked about this a little bit,
• 42:16
  I think he talked about it on Rogan at one point.
• 42:18
  Um,
• 42:18
  it may be a flying car.
• 42:21
  Now,
• 42:21
  what does that mean?
• 42:22
  You know,
• 42:22
  Elon Musk says a lot of things,
• 42:23
  you don't,
• 42:24
  you don't know.
• 42:25
  Um,
• 42:25
  there's a rumor that if you kind of think it might be like almost like a,
• 42:28
  uh,
• 42:28
  ability to hover above the ground is what,
• 42:31
  what people are guessing.
• 42:32
  I don't know.
• 42:32
  He says there's amazing technology nobody's ever seen in this car,
• 42:35
  blah,
• 42:35
  blah blah bla blahblah.
• 42:37
  That brings me to the market that I like,
• 42:38
  I kinda like.
• 42:39
  Here's one I kinda like.
• 42:40
  How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?
• 42:42
  There are a bunch of options.
• 42:44
  I wanna remind you that in 2017 to 2020,
• 42:47
  it was supposed to be at about $200,000.
• 42:50
  If you just have
• 42:52
  a,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:53
  a situation where you put inflation to that number,
• 42:55
  right?
• 42:56
  It's over $250,000.
• 42:57
  Give me the options at the bottom here,
• 42:58
  Adam.
• 42:59
  Um,
• 43:01
  250,000 is,
• 43:03
  uh,
• 43:03
  at least now it's up to 99%.
• 43:05
  This market's all over the place,
• 43:06
  not a ton of,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:08
  uh,
• 43:08
  um,
• 43:08
  of volume in there.
• 43:09
  You see,
• 43:10
  at least 225,000 is a 72% chance of happening,
• 43:14
  um.
• 43:15
  I'm sorry,
• 43:15
  a $200,000 car,
• 43:16
  that was just a cool car,
• 43:18
  plus
• 43:19
  all this new technology,
• 43:20
  plus
• 43:21
  10 years of waiting.
• 43:24
  I,
• 43:24
  well,
• 43:25
  they,
• 43:25
  they,
• 43:25
  they're gonna discount this thing?
• 43:26
  I mean,
• 43:26
  I,
• 43:27
  I,
• 43:27
  I don't know.
• 43:27
  I,
• 43:27
  I'm,
• 43:28
  I'm in on over 250,000,
• 43:30
  I know,
• 43:30
  which I should probably sell now seeing that it's at 99,
• 43:33
  um,
• 43:34
  because I think I've already won that one.
• 43:36
  but,
• 43:36
  uh,
• 43:36
  even 275,
• 43:37
  I got some over.
• 43:38
  I think it's gonna be higher.
• 43:40
  It's only 39%,
• 43:41
  at least if it's showing here on this market.
• 43:42
  It's jumping all over the place cause there's not tons of,
• 43:44
  uh,
• 43:44
  volume.
• 43:45
  But check this market out if you're interested.
• 43:47
  The only thing I will warn you on it real quick is that,
• 43:49
  um,
• 43:50
  If he doesn't announce a price,
• 43:51
  this thing could hang out there for a while.
• 43:53
  So,
• 43:54
  I don't know.
• 43:54
  I,
• 43:55
  everyone assumes he's gonna announce a price tonight,
• 43:56
  but who knows.
• 43:57
  OK,
• 43:57
  I gotta take a quick break,
• 43:58
  back in a second.
• 44:08
  If you find it hard to keep track of all
• 44:09
  the different elections and prediction markets I talk about,
• 44:12
  the one easy way to do it is to go to predict predictableshow.com.
• 44:16
  If you go there,
• 44:17
  premium subscribers get access to every single position
• 44:19
  that I have in every prediction market.
• 44:21
  So that's kind of cool.
• 44:22
  Uh,
• 44:23
  over 350 of them.
• 44:24
  Uh,
• 44:24
  so you can go there and see the good and see the bad,
• 44:26
  and see if you wanna follow along on those.
• 44:28
  A new edition of Stu's Picks comes out tomorrow,
• 44:31
  uh,
• 44:31
  so you can get in line for that.
• 44:34
  Uh,
• 44:34
  also,
• 44:34
  I wanna tell you about Senate Fantasy.com.
• 44:36
  It's a kind of a big initiative here before the election.
• 44:38
  Would love for you to spread it around,
• 44:39
  challenge your friends on this.
• 44:40
  Put them on record cause they're always running
• 44:42
  their mouth about how much they know.
• 44:43
  Do they?
• 44:44
  Do they?
• 44:45
  Um,
• 44:46
  the Senate Fantasy,
• 44:47
  uh,
• 44:47
  leaderboard is up now,
• 44:49
  and there are cash prizes and no cost.
• 44:51
  So,
• 44:51
  kind of fun.
• 44:52
  You start at about 1000,
• 44:53
  uh,
• 44:54
  you start at 1000 points and it goes up and down from there.
• 44:56
  Uh,
• 44:56
  you see suboptimal predictions leading the way right now at 1,023 points,
• 45:01
  um,
• 45:01
  and it goes all the way down to,
• 45:02
  uh,
• 45:03
  you know,
• 45:03
  uh,
• 45:03
  you can look at the entire,
• 45:04
  uh,
• 45:05
  screen,
• 45:05
  uh,
• 45:05
  here.
• 45:05
  I will say,
• 45:06
  uh,
• 45:06
  noticing towards the end,
• 45:07
  the LP machine,
• 45:08
  which is my wife,
• 45:09
  is in 4th to last.
• 45:10
  And I gotta tell you,
• 45:11
  I think my,
• 45:11
  my son probably picked her team.
• 45:13
  Um,
• 45:13
  but I don't know that for sure.
• 45:14
  We'll,
• 45:14
  we'll,
• 45:15
  I'll ask him about that later.
• 45:16
  You can get in as well,
• 45:17
  uh,
• 45:17
  right now for free,
• 45:19
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 45:20
  Join us.
• 45:20
  It's just a lot of fun and you can win real cash prizes.
• 45:23
  Although my wife can't,
• 45:24
  just to be clear.
• 45:25
  All right,
• 45:25
  we will see you a little bit more on PredictableShow.com later on.
• 45:28
  Bye-bye.