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The Truth About Perth's $1M Median That They're Hiding: Perth Property Expert · The Follio Property Podcast

• 0:00
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• 0:56
  Perth has outperformed the rest of the nation with property prices jumping up 17.2%. Property market is charging into 2026 with prices still on the rise. Perth is in a situation where I've seen nothing like it in 21 years. There's simply not enough supply, but probably closer to 5,000 or 6,000 properties in the market by the end of the year.
• 1:16
  People say, oh, this guy is falling, there's no stock. It's just not a normal situation. So if I go to market now and sell and there's no choice, we saw was people that had to buy running around with checks because they've sold their homes, needing to purchase, and that supply didn't come on. I wouldn't be surprised to not see a register at 10% on the median price. The median would definitely be over a mil. These two people had missed out on 67 homes. If you've sold your home and there's only 2,000 on the market, that's panic. But if you're looking to make the quick flip in Perth, you have to look at the ugly ducklings.
• 1:48
  You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast. I'm Rhys Bettle and I'm here today with a special guest. Over 21 years in the property industry, founder and director of Haven Property Group. Co-founder. Co-founder. Award-winning agent. I didn't want to list, I would be here for the next five minutes if I listed all the awards he'd won in the last 10 years, but Shane Beaumont, welcome to the Folio Property Podcast.
• 2:13
  Good to be here. It's good to have you. We were just speaking off air, and we haven't done a Perth market update in some time. It'd be good to get a Perth market update from someone who's, you know, has experienced yourself being in the industry as long as you have, and also, you know, actively got your ear to the ground too. Yeah, no, it's interesting if you're...
• 2:30
  If you went away for four months at a time of the last two years, you'd come back in very different conditions. It's been up and down, changing very quickly. Sometimes it doesn't make sense, but certainly I wouldn't say it's been continuous, but the waves and the flows at the moment, I've seen nothing like it in 21 years.
• 2:48
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• 3:15
  What about now? The last couple of years, it's been well publicized. What's going on, people? We've had a lot of listeners of the podcast reach out to us for their own experience, but what about the last three to six months? How's that been looking? So there was a bit of a blip. So I look at, there was a lot of fatigue in the market, and I say that for both agents, a lot of fatigue from agents, and also buyer and seller fatigue. So
• 3:40
  I think if you look at the run up to Christmas, it really felt like a lot of people put their queue in the rack, I think sort of November. And I look at the typical situation, a lot of people don't come to market in December. A lot of people want some time off not launching property, agents in particular want some time off. And a lot of owners tend to get their photos, things ready to go, but they don't launch until kids go back, which is the, I guess, after school holidays.
• 4:04
  So you're pushing to Feb. So what we saw was people that had to buy running around with checks because they've sold their homes, needed to purchase, and that supply didn't come on. So when it got down to 2,000 and people say, oh, the sky is falling, there's no stock, the reality was the reason was no other stock coming on is it was gridlocked because if I go to market now and sell and there's no choice,
• 4:23
  So it was really chicken and the egg situation. So when I look at some of those sales that led up to that period, traditionally December and January can be quiet, but there were some big numbers achieved. And that was because I need to buy, I've got a crazy number for mine, I can't be homeless, let's make it happen. And it's freed up a bit now, so a bit more stocks come on.
• 4:43
  I think some agents are panicking because the reality is if they come in the last five years, they've only known a certain market. And I was sharing with some of our guys, and we do sell across a lot of suburbs. And it wasn't that long ago, I was showing them a day of me posting the home open numbers and it was 00012004. Didn't look great, but we still sold properties. We just weren't reliant on home opens, people just running in and
• 5:10
  Give me a form and people filling them out at the table. This is just not a normal situation. So getting a young person coming in to go, oh, that's the normal market. And then he goes from having 60 people to home open. And then I tell him, look, in a few weeks' time, it's going to be a few less. And there's 20. He's like, mate, there's only 20 people coming. Yeah.
• 5:26
  There was days and weekends I wouldn't see 20 people in total. So, yeah, it's shifting back. Still incredible selling conditions. The best way I could describe it is if you look at a day, let's just say it's 55 degrees. It's bloody stinking hot. It's basically Las Vegas desert. It goes down to 33 degrees. It's still a warm day.
• 5:45
  But if you keep comparing it to 50, it doesn't feel that hot. And that, I think, right now is for a lot of sellers. It's still a 33-degree day. I'd argue the best selling conditions if you take that out of it ever. But because it's been so heated and the media don't help a lot because they keep saying, oh, 20% growth and this and that. What people need to understand is when you're hearing those numbers, it's the median moving.
• 6:08
  And the reality is there's nothing under the median. So you could argue that's going to keep going. But what's happening on the ground right now is a bit of realisation that the panics come out of the market. Still good properties, well-presented properties, quality areas are moving really strongly. You're not, I wouldn't say time wasters, but you're people that have nothing better to do, come through properties and do their research. They've died off a bit. But if you've sold your home, you need to buy a home and there's still great results happening.
• 6:35
  I think the big thing at the moment as well, some of the data we've been tracking, everyone's talking about historic low listings. But it's actually the sales that are happening in that week too. And they're over 30%, 35% each week. That's what a lot of the growth is coming from as well. And I think when you hear those – and I do host the real podcast, full disclaimer, but the numbers sometimes are a bit skewed in the sense that –
• 6:54
  They said there's 3,200. Now, that's based on REWA stats, but there's still some complexes, believe it or not, that have finally come out the ground. So I think there's always a bit of a lag, as much as we like it to be live data, but there is a bit more choice coming to market.
• 7:09
  In most quality areas, there's under two weeks supply, which is why average days is sort of sitting around 15. Over the last 24 months, we've really tried to have at least two home opens because we didn't know what the new norm was. And we found a lot of buyers agents from over east were shutting down the home open because they were not threatening to pull offers, but they're saying to an agent, here's an offer, but you've got to get me an answer in 24 hours. And we're
• 7:32
  I guess if there's only 2,000 properties on the market, 9.20 selling a week, some agent panicked and we still had those two home opens. And when we started, we were finished with two different things. But quite often, the offers weren't getting more, but it was about the owner realising what was out there. Because when data's moving that quickly, you simply do not know what the new norm is. So giving people an opportunity to have a property open, for one, not just rocking up as a salt sticker, was a really important exercise for us.
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• 9:00
  What about buy sentiment? You're noticing that not even over the last six months, but just in the last month alone, we've had the two rate rises, the war in Iran, obviously more from the investor angle, but the news coming out of potential negative gearing change, capital gains tax reform. Have you seen a bit of a buy sentiment change over the last few weeks or last month?
• 9:21
  three, not three months, probably nine weeks ago, I can actually remember the conversation I had. I spoke to my business partner, Sean. I was like, man, this is what's happening. He's like, are you sure? Because he's running around with five, six, $70 million offers. And I said, look, this is what I'm noticing. It's not going to flow onto you because the price point he sells at for probably three months. It's just starting to now where, I'm not saying get the wobbles, but people, vacancy rates at 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.5%.
• 9:49
  You can't find a rental at that time. There was no stock. People were having to make pretty brash decisions. So the normality coming into the market now, that sentiment really is, look, if this one doesn't work out, for the first time in a while, I'll know I'll find another one.
• 10:04
  So today, just on the way here, we sold a property which we had three offers that were really close. There was eight offers on it still. Really great result for property in Southlake. Sadly, it wasn't the highest offer that got it. It was actually the most solid terms and conditions. And the gap between that was less than $10,000. But the owner understanding, well, hang on.
• 10:24
  Couple of interest rate rises, the big healthy deposit, maybe that's where I'll go. That's the sort of mentality that's starting to creep in. A bit more logic over emotion. And I think for buyers, almost accepting that, like when I told the other people they missed out, at one point there were tears.
• 10:39
  These two people had missed out on 67 homes. That's Shane. Look, that's the game. We understand it now. So when that starts to creep in and I guess buyers are detached from the outcome because they're not expecting to get it, then there's more stock coming on the market. Pretty quickly, it can change to being, well, hang on. It's not the end of the world. One will pop up. It'll work out. Whereas at the time, if you've sold your home and there's only 2,000 on the market, at one point I looked at some home opens across Perth.
• 11:04
  It was actually November. Addedale, four home opens. East Frio, five home opens. Delkeith, three home opens. Trigg, zero. North Beach, one. And you've sold your home and you want to stay there. That's panic. Look right now, and whilst there might only be five or six in some of the suburbs, that's a fair increase from one to five.
• 11:23
  So it's still very much a seller's market. There isn't a huge amount of choice, but knowing for the first time that if I take a chance in going to market, selling, maybe getting a longer settlement, there's a good chance I'll find something, that has started to creep in.
• 11:38
  The other thing, which rightly or wrongly, we work really close to their agents, understand to treat buyers well. Your buyer is your next seller. Audition like they're going to sell their home next week and they go, wow, he's a guy I need to represent. I do not think agents were looking after buyers at all. They weren't following them up. I went through properties, didn't even get a call back. You take my number, you check me at the front, and then you're not even calling. And I guess that's why buyers, agents exist, because if we're looking after them a lot better, you wouldn't sort of have that space in the market.
• 12:08
  Yeah, it feels like we're going to be going down that next swing in the market where they're going to have to shift, I guess, with their tactics or their customer service at the end of the day. We're building rapport to say, guys, yes, your price is $9. These things are happening, but you're buying a home for five to seven years. But that rapport typically comes from multiple conversations, not checking someone and never calling them again.
• 12:29
  So I think that's going to be more important. I think there's some great buyers right now in the market still. The stock level is being so low. I think it's north for growth, but you have to buy well. And for a while there, literally, rightly or wrongly, we'd be doing a deal and there's a buyer's agent maybe in Melbourne or Sydney
• 12:48
  and it's buyeragentpaul at gmail.com. He's driving an Uber, you can hear that, and he's getting people to buy properties. Now, some of those purchases were what you would deem horrendous purchases, but some of them have doubled in value because it's been down for so long. I think when you start to look at Perth as a whole market, what the Eastern States people did, not just buyers agents, just some people thinking logically. One of my clients in particular has got just under 300 properties.
• 13:14
  And he literally, he goes to areas that aren't being touched, looks at the yield. If I'm going to buy in an area, what's the first to go up? And he takes a calculated guess to go, well, hang on, everything around that is X and that's where he buys. But he doesn't try and just guesswork. He has a formula he sticks to and he's done really well. I still remember the property he rang me about. I said, look, that's probably not for you, but as a good agent should, I'll send you ones I think would suit more what you're looking for. And he just said, look, I'll buy everything off you. If you've got that, I'll buy it.
• 13:43
  Now at the time, zero, one, two, four, zero coming through them opens, starts to ramp up again, and stuff that he was paying $240 for, it was renting for $550 a week, is now $650, $700, $750. There was no one else coming through those properties. But he stuck to his former, he'd seen it happen over east, and I think those spot fires, where you had that really strong growth, a lot of that was built on a lot of those eastern states. People were going, hang on, that's only 28 minutes from the city,
• 14:12
  900 square meter block, it's a triplex site and it rents for 700 a week. That seems pretty cheap compared to where I am now. But we had real, I think, strong suburb bias. So I grew up in an area, I always thought this was the pecking order. They actually took that off and actually really looked at logistically what made sense. And that's why I think they got some good buyers. Yeah.
• 14:31
  What about sub markets? So, you know, you could have thrown a dart at a dartboard in Perth in the last four years and you're making money, like you said, with one of your clients there. What about sub markets? What are we seeing at the moment? So the things that I guess when we're speaking to buyers that are pretty smart with what they're buying, I think the value add is something you must be looking at.
• 14:50
  So in a marketplace where you can actually value add, as opposed to just being reliant on growth and yield, because when you try to explain to some people, well, why are all the investors gone? You've got to say, well, look, if something was $300,000, it was rented for $600,000, it's now $700,000, it's only rented for $650,000. The yield play has probably dropped off. But I think through some of those areas where you get retain and builds, land is going to keep going. I generally believe land, there's a shortage you've never seen.
• 15:17
  such a shortage in your life. We've got people that have contracts ready. For a while then, when we're selling a block of land, had to wait 90 days for them to get eligible. Then they've got to go to council to say you're at 120. And then you wait another 60 days because in the meantime, someone's gone and bought a jet ski or something during the application process. It was bloody painful.
• 15:37
  The hardest work was getting a block of land to settle. Right now, they're ready to go. Contracts are ready. Builders are only taking on real quality leads. So land is going to continue. So retain and builds, I think, were street front ideally because there's more builders who want to touch that stuff. I could show you five tomorrow you can do really well. And that's the stuff I think people should be chasing.
• 15:57
  Especially first home buyers. We do try and say to first home buyers, and I guess I made the mistake, I brought a home, my first property, didn't do that well for me, but I brought it because I wanted to live there. So if I look at, yes, that's a lifestyle decision, but financial decision, if you can find that balance between your first investment property being your first home, understand it's not gonna be your last home,
• 16:19
  There's some great opportunity to do really well. And I guess because it is your principal place of residence, either create some equity to buy another property or you can get a tax-free throw up the stumps, which is pretty crazy when you think, especially things that might be coming into play. I think, like, we echo that. We were speaking off-air in terms of, you know, the amount of acquisitions we're probably doing as a business at the moment. And it's definitely...
• 16:40
  you know, less than sort of 30% is in Perth at the moment. And that stock that we do see the value is exactly what you said. There's something where there is a bit of a value-add potential because that first home owner cap, Noel and my increase back in October, that just shifted all that unit market or even that entry-level house stock just above 850. So about two years ago we told, it was pretty crazy when you think about it, I'd rang all my owners of Strata and I was like, do not sell.
• 17:07
  Unless you have to buy, have to sell, do not sell. And they're like, why? I said, well, because believe it or not, your 2014 three-by-two villa on 200 square metres is now a generous-sized villa because the new zoning is now 160 square metres. And you paint it and put some downlights in it, get the garden looking good. You're the newest kid on the block.
• 17:26
  you're actually going to get a great result. And that's exactly what happened. So now as people come to market, we're saying, look, you've got some equity. If you can make this feel fresh, feel good, doesn't feel like a rental because it was your home from eight years ago you rented out, you'll get top dollar because there's simply not construction happening.
• 17:43
  And three by twos on 320, 260, 220 square metres, it's scary to say, like, that's actually not a small block anymore, which is gnarly. But, yeah, so great opportunities there too. And I think people's attitudes change on that. You know, we would have grown up in Perth, got told, I say this all the time, but...
• 18:02
  750 square meter block, it has to be a house, whereas I've got mates now getting their first property and it's a unit or a villa, townhouse, and that is now an acceptable first acquisition. I think the best, the thing I look at numbers, which is scary because I can't stop looking at numbers, but in areas that I've seen do well with that sort of product, and I used Belmont QDAR when they, or Belmont River, but when they did too much development of that R40 and all those apartments went in, the problem was, one, there was too much of the same product.
• 18:32
  But at that time, for a, let's say, a three by two villa, I could still buy a full block. So the numbers we sort of look at that have performed really well is where if I wanted to get it, let's just say Claremont, if I wanted to be on Freshwater Parade, I lived there, it's a great spot. Apartment made sense to me. I had Riverviews for a million dollar apartment, Riverviews in one of the best streets in the suburb, that home on that same very street, it's three, maybe four mils.
• 18:58
  So an apartment play probably makes sense. But when you're seeing the house price in the apartment or the villa, which is typically a compromised property, it's, everyone would love a full block, but it has to have great infrastructure and the value needs to be, I reckon a third to half at tops, what I can get into a house for. And then you can do quite well. But if you're buying a brand new villa at the same price point as what you can get a house, for a longer term play, that's something I think you really need to look at. 100%. What about in terms of like,
• 19:28
  singling out investors. You've been there since the rise, especially the King of Gosnells when that was hit hard by a lot of East Coast activities. You've been there to watch it from the start of that cycle, seeing a lot of East Coast activity. What does the investor activity look like in Perth in 2026? It'll be smarter money.
• 19:49
  Because I do believe there'll be growth, but reliant on growth, when you look at interest rates being at 2% and obviously yields at 7 plus, like that guy I spoke about who's bought all those properties, at the time, he would not touch anything that was under a 7% yield.
• 20:04
  Now, that's pretty hard to find at the moment. So if you can buy really well and there's a value add, you can do extremely well right now because you're not competing with the masses. At one point, we were getting, I guess, literally inquiries a day. We were getting on average 130 inquiries a day on property. Jesus. So over the last 18 months, 19 months with Haven, I would typically sell about 180 homes a year.
• 20:29
  A lot of my focus is on working with the teams. So I don't really take on enough that I can still give those guys time. But what I saw was properties being sold at a number that you couldn't even make up. Like in your wildest dreams, at one point, you couldn't make up. And you're just like, wow. But then that settles. And then by the time it's settled, that's the new norm. And it was just moving so quickly. And some investors...
• 20:50
  have done extremely well. But the ones that I think would do even better are the ones that actually know that there hasn't been a drop off of those investors competing because 70% of Inquiry at one point were investors. Logical money has moved back, e.g. we talk about Gosnells. Gosnells shouldn't be more expensive than Huntingdale.
• 21:07
  It shouldn't be more expensive than Langford, just logistically. And that was sort of the pecking order when you're going up through those areas. But that's what happened. I still remember looking at Belmont, and I spoke to you off air. Belmont, at one point, through those areas, Qdale to a degree, was almost on par with Gosnells. Linwood was on par with Gosnells. Because the turnover of sales wasn't big enough, and they ramp up an area like Gosnells, they were saying, oh, don't buy there because it's too close to the airport. Right.
• 21:34
  But airports are very different to Sydney and Melbourne airports. And the reality is it's actually prime real estate. Look at Lath Lane. Look at Carlisle. Those areas for so long have done nothing. But logistically, you look at the median house price there now, it makes a lot of sense because it's not that close. It's pretty close to everything. Through Gosnells, I think, and maybe Biscas, I grew up there and sell there, but I look around it and as far as infrastructure, it's got the most schools.
• 21:59
  It does have, I guess, a city centre hub. It's now connected to Southern River. Southern River is a big step up, same postcode. So logistics there and the infrastructure is there, whereas I think probably Thornley has been underdeveloped. It's too detached. There's two pockets of Thornley. There's a place you want to be, but as far as our little hub, there's not. Kenwick, there's nothing. Huntingdale, there's certainly not. So a lot of the
• 22:22
  I guess, investors and the advisors for those investors were like, look at this. If this was anywhere else in the country, you'd be like all over that. And they were probably right. Well, we say this all the time, but Rockingham, when we started buying at the start of the cycle, when that did really well, I think 5% of our clients were from Perth because there was a bias around people from Perth not wanting to invest in Rockingham, whereas all of our East Coast clients saw the value, saw how close it is, how close it is, and undervalued to the city as well. And I think, I guess, that way –
• 22:52
  We dealt with a lot of people, a lot of people that did buy down there, and exactly that. They took the blinkers off and was like, hang on, I'm 1,900 meters from the beach, and there's a train line, and I'm renting for $6.50 a week, and I'm paying $4.20. Like, what am I missing here? And that was purely just the local buyer. Like, oh, right.
• 23:10
  Lockingham's got its issues. Mandra's got its issues. Things change. Areas change. I think it was at Redfern in Sydney. I remember growing up. Now, I grew up in Gosnells, and I still remember my dad saying, geez, that Redfern. And you look at Redfern, and I might be like, well, hang on, that's got to change eventually. I believe it has now. But everything does change. Willardee, for example, again, grew up in Gosnells. Willardee was seen as a rough area back in the day.
• 23:32
  Two-story home now, $1.5 million, easy. So things do change, but you've got to look at the infrastructure and I think the logistics around it. And yes, people have done well buying some average properties, but that's not going to always work. Yeah. What about affordability? So some of the data we track at Folio is the affordability index, which medium household income consumed by the medium household mortgage. At our peak in 07, 08 in Perth, we're about 49% combined salary.
• 24:01
  We're ticked over to 39%, so there's still 10% left in the market. And to give that kind of context, we've kind of mulled it out on some interest rates to understand what that looks like from a medium house price perspective. Now, just running on historical figures, medium house price on today's rates, and this could go lower when rates go up, we think it'll tap out about $1.25 million as a medium house price.
• 24:22
  It could go above. Sydney's proven that in this current cycle where it's gone above its historical ceiling. You know, depending on what data warehouse you look at now, we're at $950 million as a medium house price. Do you see it going up to, say, that $1.25 million, or are you starting to feel a bit of pressure on the ground from affordability? The affordability, Perth, and I believe this, I really do, Perth is less affordable, but it's not unaffordable.
• 24:48
  There are pockets around the country that are completely unaffordable. So if I look at areas, and you obviously get to see the finance approvals coming through, people have got some bloody good solid deposits. Yes, there was talk about that, the 5% deposit scheme, but not everyone was under that. There was actually a lot of people that had been saving, working hard.
• 25:09
  like most of it, like that offer today, there's first home buyers. That's an 820, 100, $830,000 property, 20% saved. Like back in 2007, 2008, 2014, I didn't see that. It was, and I guess what did happen, those grants came in. And I still remember in 2009 when they doubled the first home bonus grant from seven to 14, you can actually see on the radar, like where they did it, you know, and those things happen. But people have, for all the wrongs that have happened with banking, what have you, people have actually got their ducks in a row. Um,
• 25:38
  And we've started to see people understand that it is a longer term play. Perth can't be down for 20 years because I still, there's properties, believe it or not, and people may not believe this, that are probably only got back about two years ago back to what they sold for in 2007. There's properties in the canals in Mandurah that are still probably under what they went for 2007. So I genuinely believe the affordability factor within reason is that the affordability factor
• 26:03
  is going to be fine here. A challenge, if you look to an area and you go to rewa.com, look at a suburb, and let's just say Gosnell, just speaking about it, the average number they're quoting on a house, e.g. a four by two, you can barely find a four by two at what they're quoting as a median. As a three by one, you can barely find a property. So that lag of data is going to continue. And if you are looking at buying in an area, I generally think if you can get into the
• 26:31
  Now, I think you'll do really well. I genuinely believe there's great growth ahead. Yeah. I mean, you're looking at the last boom, house prices doubled in value, tripled in value, I should say. Yeah. We've only just gone over doubled in value. So even just looking at historical data, correlating that with the affordability, there's still room to go. Yeah. And if you look at those areas that they keep saying, oh, now it's clicked over X million dollar club or what have you, there'll be a heap that'll be going there very soon.
• 27:01
  That new norm is there. And there's nothing – like you've got Limwood. I can't see that slowing down. Parkwood, I can't see that slowing down. So they can't create more land through those areas. There's not like this big infrastructure put in 70, 80 apartment towers and this sort of thing. So the supply is still going to be pretty restricted.
• 27:19
  You spoke a lot about asset types and particular locations from an investor lens. What about first homebuyers? Where are you probably seeing the most value in the market today for a first homebuyer? The ugly ducklings, which are basically the 2000 or, say, realistically, 1983 built three-by-one on a full block. Not many first homebuyers, young families, young couples, are willing to live in a basic original three-by-one. But I can tell you right now, if you can get that livable,
• 27:45
  make it house proud so you can have a barbecue, have your friends over, and there's some development potential, you're almost paying 50, 60 grand for a house. Like the land price, again, I just use Gosnell just because it's easy as a reference. If the median land through there now, look at the values, you're over 1,000 bucks a square metre.
• 28:05
  mid last year or late last year, it was 937 a square metre. So a 680 square metre block with a three by one on it that you can paint, make it, be house proud again, as I say, you're paying early sevens, like five to 10 years time. Go look around those suburbs, look at Southern River, look at the new subdivisions in Gosnells, like 300 square metre block is going for 400,000. Land is what you're really trying to achieve there or getting into an
• 28:34
  area where the location, i.e. St Claremont, just as an example, those areas are going to do the heavy lifting for you. But if you're the most expensive home in a suburb, you just got to understand you'll be doing the heavy lifting for them because you've got all this stuff under you. So if you're looking for growth, best area you can afford. If you're looking for land, try to get the best bit of land you can where it's still appreciated. So for example, Beckingham is now being chopped up a lot. Thornley, not so much. Cannington's been sitting really low. I think it's well under market.
• 29:03
  It has been for a long time. We look at the stuff around at Queen's Park. Those things will change, but I think there's still some really good value through there.
• 29:11
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• 29:55
  What about investors? Are you seeing a lot of those East Coasters or even locals from Perth that maybe entered in 2020, 2021? Are they exiting now or are they still holding? The local buyers not because the reality is they're still gonna get back into the market. So at one point, without going through a history lesson, if you look at late 2024,
• 30:15
  I still remember seeing the stock levels go from, say, 2,700 to 5,400. That's the highest and fastest ever increase of stock ever. All the investors pulled out because interest rates. They weren't getting the yield. Then it dipped again. They came back in. So that was something that I noticed really, really quickly, that the investors, almost like a plague of locusts, just went,
• 30:36
  in and then they went out. And that heat of the market was really based on that, the investors. Right now, I would say we're close to, about 20%, I would say, would be investors. Most of the stuff I sell is say around $800,000. It's in that sort of section.
• 30:53
  They're just tapping out at that level purely because they're not banking on it as enough growth. And a lot of the people that were getting enough return, i.e. $650 a week on a $400,000 property, it created buyers. Typically, a lot of just mum and dads that missed out on Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane were like, I should have done that. My friend did that and they'd done well. And they've done reasonably well in that regard.
• 31:15
  I think we're noticing that from on the ground. Obviously, we're not doing as many investments ourselves from a pure affordability factor. But even those East Coasters that would naturally attract to us and being a Perth buyers agency, wanting to buy Perth, they're now starting to look at alternative options. But you look at it across the board and there's no real strong market that's performing or at the start of it. It's like Melbourne's very much at the start of it.
• 31:41
  It's like we're going through some growing pains at the moment, whereas you've got Brisbane, Adelaide, Sydney softening, Perth's still got to run. Investors are probably struggling to understand where's the best place to put their money at the moment. Yeah, I think you've got to understand your timing. If you're looking to make the quick flip in Perth, I don't think that's the market for it now. I think you need to be more strategic and start to think, this is a three- to five-year plan. I think you'll do really well. There's not enough supply for the population growth, so it's just a bit more normality coming back into it.
• 32:10
  But the investors, when I look at that quick increase of stock, now typically in a normal market, I'd have 40 listings to have 25 sales a month, 20 sales a month. When we were taking on those properties, I think I listed nine in a row that were Eastern States investors taking 300 or 400 off the table and not one of them had been to Perth.
• 32:35
  So the local buyer wasn't selling because where are they going to go? But people read, they say, oh, it's had its run, or their buyer agent's like, hey, come back to Melbourne, it's a great opportunity, which is happening a lot. And I fully understand that. There's some great value there if you know what you're doing because I think you can get caught up pretty quickly there. And that was really the only seller was people just taking money off the table because they could.
• 32:56
  The reality is if that $400,000 you made in, let's say, 24 months, I've got clients that brought in 2009 that haven't had that growth. That's pretty crazy. So some people have taken a chance and holding longer term, and I think they'll do well. But those people that had another plan, whether to buy back in or just take some money off the table, they'll think they've done well too. Shane, as we're recording this, we've had two rate rises. We've had the war on Iran start. You mentioned...
• 33:23
  that you actually saw a bit of a sentiment change probably before the rate rises with potentially at least another two rate rises on the horizon in 2026. Where do you see the Perth market going at the end of 2026? I think there'll be registered growth. The median will continue because of that lag, and there's simply not enough supply under 920. There's not. So depending on what you read, where the median sits. Strong growth still. I think you'll start to see probably closer to 5,000 or 6,000 properties in the market by the end of the year. Still a long way off where it needs to be.
• 33:53
  I genuinely believe that the negative gearing, if there was a change to negative gearing,
• 34:01
  Capital gains is one thing, but negative gearing, that would turn the market extremely quickly. And I don't think it'd be good for people renting, I don't think it'd be good for anyone. The capital gains thing, the only real people that we're finding concerned, or having conversations, and I had 34 calls about the interest rate and the capital gains talk within it being announced. And I genuinely believe, and I might be wrong, I think they will change that. But no one's, the younger generation not scared about the tax.
• 34:31
  They've been taxed so much all their life. But the baby boomer or the person that's their super is in that property, they're the ones that are like, well, I've had a good run. If that tax comes in, for me to hold another 12 months to be in the same position, they're probably the ones that are selling, just de-risking. So I think you'll start to see a lot of them sell. Because for the first time, and I've been doing it a while, normally when they speak about those capital gains, someone's like, no, I don't be sure they shut it down. It's not been shut down by anyone for the first time since I've been doing it.
• 35:01
  The tax isn't as much as a concern, but if they did go to negative gearing, changing that, that would be a very different conversation. Yep. We had Ben Kingsley, who's chairman of the Picker Association on the podcast last week. He had on very good authority that there is definitely going to be a change coming on the CGT exemption. It may be tiered, depending on how long you hold the property.
• 35:25
  we're very supportive of, so it really penalizes those flippers or those coming in to pump up a market and exit. Negative gearing was kind of up in the air, but I think you're right. That could be the biggest lever that could shift the property market as well. Yeah. And look, I shouldn't, I don't want to say this, but if you've, the tax side of it, if it's an income and you've sold it, like, and it's an asset and you've sold it, like, I get why they have to lift the tax a bit. When you look at what the tax rate is for people earning over 190,000, right?
• 35:52
  But the negative gearing, that's a bit different in the sense that you came onto a policy, like all these people in the marketplace, they've banked on a certain rule, and then you go and change the rules. I think that's a bit harder. The tax, I think that can work out an adjustment and they can filter it. You couldn't do that with negative gearing. It's either sledgehammer or not. And that's where I think they'll probably struggle there. But yeah, I do believe there'll be changes. But when we're speaking to younger buyers, they're like, mate,
• 36:17
  I'm not selling. So what's the difference? And you only really pay that tax when you're selling. That's really the baby boomers, the retirees that are having that conversation, which I think is good. And if that works, if that does bring more property to market, well, maybe that has succeeded. It's certainly not creating more homes, but I guess if it is bringing more to market, hopefully that can be absorbed by a market we need.
• 36:41
  That's the biggest challenge, isn't it? Because the other debate is it's going to rise rents and then those people that are renting, it's going to take longer for them to buy the home. Without supply, yeah, nothing's going to change. I mean, again, I don't know, but I constantly read and I see, and I'm not big on LinkedIn, but I see government talking about all these homes they've brought to market. I don't know where they are.
• 37:01
  Like, I don't know where they are because I don't really see them, but they're always talking about them. It just has not flowed on. And I can't see that changing, obviously, as we're speaking now with knowing that there is going to potentially be a backlog of materials with all the stuff that's happening. That's probably going to get tougher for a while. And building costs are going to go up. So all of a sudden, if properties were almost back to being viable to develop, that may be kicked down the road again. So that's what we're seeing too.
• 37:28
  Shane, before we get you out, one prediction from you. We can edit it out if it turns horribly wrong at the end of the year as well. So off the top of my head, we've done roughly over 6% growth this year in Perth already. Yeah. What are we going to be looking at at the end of 2026 from a growth perspective? I think –
• 37:47
  And again, there's two markets. And the north of $2 million, I'd say the $2 to $3.5 million, I think you might see a bit of a ... The reality is three interest rate rises, the buyer that can borrow $2.5 million, they're going to get pegged back a bit. So I think that you'll see a bit of a pause. Still growth, but not crazy. I think the entry-level stuff will continue to be gobbled because people need to live somewhere. The premium product, I still think, is extremely undervalued in Perth. Like ...
• 38:16
  I can't believe I'm saying this, bargains. There are literally bargains. You go to Delkeith. Delkeith's been a tough one. It's probably one of the only suburbs in Perth that's had a decrease in infrastructure. But through there, the full blocks. When you look at anywhere else, one of the most prestigious suburbs in the whole country, at what you're paying for a full block, seems undervalued. I think Cottesloe's cheap. Mosman Park is extremely cheap. Swanbourne, I think they're all really cheap, like for like. Go to Bondi.
• 38:43
  and with no views and see what you're paying. Go to Double Bay and see what you're paying. When I started in 2005, 2006, I still remember Perth was the same median house price as Sydney. Now we didn't have population growth, but the amount of young families on the back of COVID for whatever McGowan did, he put us on the map, people started to know, oh, there is, where's this Perth you speak of?
• 39:04
  It's only three hours away. A lot of our people that were coming over were selling there. I still remember distinctly there's a lawyer from Sydney. He'd moved there for seven years and he sold for three and a half million, 120 square metre lot with a three by one on it. Like just basically a pin of a house. Came over, one street back in Bicton, full block, starting with a pool. And he's still got three mil change. I think that's going to continue to happen. With a bit of unrest overseas, obviously a lot of people have moved you by. It's a
• 39:32
  you know, the new cool thing, I think you'll start to see a lot of people see Perth again as a safe place to be, a great place to live. And that's including in Singapore. Like value for money, I think you'll struggle to find a prestige market that offers as much as Perth.
• 39:49
  And figure-wise? I'm going to get killed in the comments if I don't press you on this. Figure-wise? Yeah. What do you want to know? Growth-wise? Yeah, what are we going to do for this year? I think the median will still be close. I wouldn't be surprised to not see a register at 10% on the median price. But disclaimer is that doesn't mean your $2 million home goes to 2.2 and 2.3. The median, I think, will definitely be over a mil.
• 40:11
  and there's simply not enough supply under that and there won't be coming to market. So entry-level housing, reality is anything under a median is entry-level housing. I still think there's some strong growth there. Shane Beaumont, thanks for joining the follow-up podcast. No, thank you.
• 40:34
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