Latest / MenthorQ Daily / Nvidia −5%: Levels Before CPI | MenthorQ Daily - Nov 9th 2026

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Nvidia −5%: Levels Before CPI | MenthorQ Daily - Nov 9th 2026 · MenthorQ Daily

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hi traders, Sunday night, 6 p.m.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ Futures reopen, drop 1% on an Nvidia headline and get bought back in under 10 minutes.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's the calm.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: But NVIDIA is still down 5% in the pre-market.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Dealers are short gamma and CPI is out tomorrow morning.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: So how solid is this floor?
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into it.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is Mentor Q Daily.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Gamma levels, volatility, and AI.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Every angle, every morning.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: This is Mentor Q Daily, the morning market brief from Mentor Q.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's Monday, November 9th.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Three things today.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: First, the fragile calm, where the indexes sit on the gamma map after the worst week since April last year.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Second, who's still selling?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: Trend followers, volatility funds, and the treasury itself.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: And third, CPI, gold and oil, and why commodities are behaving so differently from stocks.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with the damage.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Last week, the SP 500 lost 2.7%.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: The Nasdaq 100 lost 4.9.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Thursday did most of it.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: The NASDAQ fell 6.4% in a single session, its worst day since March 2020.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: The trigger was the election result, which raised fears of tighter rules on AI and on data center construction.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Friday brought a bounce on a strong jobs report, 165,000 payrolls against about 65,000 expected.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Then, over the weekend, Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation into its CEO.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: So what's Mentor Q seeing?
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Start with gamma.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Both index futures are in negative gamma.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: In plain words, dealers chase the move, so swings get bigger, not smaller.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: On SP futures, net gamma exposure is minus$224 million, and the index sits below every primary level.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Put support, where dealers tend to buy, is at$7,500.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: The HVL, the line where Calm turns into volatility, is at$7,625.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Call resistance is at$7,900.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: All of its overhead.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: The NASDAQ futures are sitting right on put support at$27,000.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Today's zero-day call resistance for options expiring today is at$27,300.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's the only zone on today's map where dealers lean against a move.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: And NVIDIA?
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: In the pre-market, it's trading near$177, down about 5.2% from Friday's close.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's already below today's zero-day put support at 180 and below the low end of its expected range.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Put support at 190 is now overhead.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Below, there's no named level until the risk trigger at 172.77.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: And here's a detail worth noticing.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Before the weekend, Nvidia's implied volatility was already near the top of its one-year range.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: The options market was pricing a shock before the headline hit.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Earnings are due on November 17th.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Options price a 1.2% move for the SP today.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's how far options say price can go.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Roughly 7,315 to 7490.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: On the SP, the line of the week is the 7300 to 7320 zone.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's zero-day put support, the edge of today's expected range, and the 200-day average, all stacked together.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Hold it and the base case is chop inside the range.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: Close below it, and the swing risk trigger at 7,206 comes into play.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Above, a reclaim of 7,500 would be the first sign the index is moving back inside its structure.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: On the NASDAQ, above 27,300 opens 27,580.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Below 26,800, Sunday's low, there's nothing until 26,600.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: And one tell for this morning, whether Nvidia holds 180 and keeps pace with the NASDAQ.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: But levels are only half the story.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: The other half is who's still on the sell side.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Three sellers haven't left the room.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: The first is the trend followers, the CTAs.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Mentor Q's CTA model shows them net short both SP and Nasdaq futures for the first time since the spring.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: On the Nasdaq, the position is minus 1.4% of risk.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: A month ago, it was plus 0.8.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: That puts it at the floor of its two-year range, the same depth as the April lows of 2025 and 2026.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the asymmetry.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: On the Nasdaq, most of the mechanical selling is done.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Past lows like this were followed by a steady rebuild back to long for about two months.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's squeeze fuel.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: On the SP, the position only crossed zero on Thursday.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's at minus 0.35.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Prior extremes were around minus 2.2 and minus 2.7.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: So if the index keeps breaking, there's a second wave of supply waiting.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Put simply, the squeeze fuel is in the NASDAQ, the risk is in the SP.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: The second seller is Vol Control Funds.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: They size their positions to realize volatility.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: And last week that volatility spiked.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: MentorQ's model puts their volatility ratio near 0.7.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's the zone where they cut in steps, not all at once.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Any move bigger than about half a percent today triggers more selling.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: A quiet, range-bound session does the opposite.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: It lets volatility decay and slowly turns these funds back into buyers.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's why boring is bullish this week.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The third seller is liquidity.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: The Treasury drains cash from the system twice this week through T-bill settlements.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: About$300 billion of bills settle on Tuesday and more on Thursday.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Over the past year, semiconductor stocks have fallen on those days, on average.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: And Wednesday's Veterans Day, the bond market's closed, stocks are open, and liquidity will be thin.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Thin liquidity plus negative gamma is the mix that turns a 1% move into a 3% move in either direction.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: What to watch?
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: If the SP breaks 7,300, that's where the second CTA wave can start.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: If the NASDAQ holds 27,000 into CPI, the floor in positioning can turn into covering.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Which brings us to the number that matters most this week.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Tuesday, 8.30 a.m.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern, October CPI.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Consensus for core is plus 0.2% month on month.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: After Friday's jobs report, a December Fed hike is about 75 to 80% priced.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: And this time there's no year-over-year number for October, so the monthly print carries all the weight.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: A soft print lowers the hike odds and gives that NASDAQ positioning a reason to cover.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: A hot one locks in the hike and could start the SP's second wave.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's what's interesting.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: While dealers amplify stocks, they're stabilizing commodities.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Look at gold.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Mentor Q's option matrix shows the most important change of the night.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Gold's gamma regime flipped from negative to positive on Sunday evening to plus$2.25 million.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Positive gamma means dealers cushion the move, they buy dips and sell rallies.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's why the overnight range was narrow.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: 4,100 is the gamma wall, and prices pin to it.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: What to watch?
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: If gold holds above 4100, the positive regime stays.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: A daily close above 4150 opens 4,208, then call resistance at 4,350.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Below, the levels are 4,050 and 4,020, then the risk trigger at 3951.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Under 4000, the gamma turns negative, so a break after a hot CPI would be fast.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Oil's the other story.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: WTI fell about 13% last week as markets priced lower odds of an extended conflict with Iran.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Crude's now sitting right on its HVL at 89.65 in positive gamma.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Options price a 3.5% move today.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: And notice, the swing model is still bullish.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: It reads last week as a correction inside an uptrend, not a reversal.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Today's binary event is a meeting on Iran mediation with Qatar at noon eastern.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Above 90, positive gamma pulls price toward 93.50.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Below 86, put support at 85 is the last line before negative gamma takes over, and a move toward the low 80s could be fast.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's wrap it up.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Three takeaways.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: 1.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Both indexes are in negative gamma with every major level overhead, so moves get amplified.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: 2.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: Positioning's uneven.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: There's squeeze fuel in the NASDAQ and a second wave of selling risk in the SP.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: 3.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Commodities are the calm corner.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: And gold just flipped to positive gamma.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: The levels for today, SP futures, 7300 below and 7,500 above.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ 27,000 and 27,300.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Gold 4,100.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Crude 8965.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: And the calendar, CPI on Tuesday morning, core weave after Tuesdays close, Veterans Day on Wednesday, then applied materials and Cisco on Thursday.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: This is for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: Every level we talked about today is live on the Mentor Q dashboard, and you can ask Queen about any ticker anytime.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Find it all at mentorq.com.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: See you tomorrow morning.