Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 157 : Our Wins And Losses

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Ep. 157 : Our Wins And Losses · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello and welcome everybody to episode 157 of Cards and Categories.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I am Mike Kular from Baseball Prospectus and joined once again,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: he's returned, Jeremy Brewer from Raz Ball. How are you
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: doing tonight, buddy? Do you feel the fall in the air?
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: I feel the fall in the air as much as
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: the ball going over Bryce Harper's head. Sorry, Phillies fans.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: He redeemed himself. But yes, falls in the air. We
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: have playoff baseball. it is a fantastic time of year.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: The only thing that's thrown me off is playoff baseball,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: like two in the afternoon. I'm still not used to that.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: I'm still not used to that piece, but otherwise it
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: is a great time of the year for us baseball fans.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think you're just probably not used to it.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Not being the guardians, the guardians always have that like
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: 1 PM central start that they usually always sneak into
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the playoffs and that's what they've been doing. But we
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: are recording on September 30th. So they, well, The Red
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Sox-Inkies game technically started on television at 7 p.m. We're
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: 45 minutes since then, and they've played two innings, barely,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: so some classic Red Sox-Inkies going on there, but we
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: also had the White Sox clinch today. The Phillies stayed alive,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: so we're right in the thick of things. I think
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: we're getting some, you know, the first day of games
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: were pretty solid. I think that they faded where the
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: best one was front-loaded in terms of Braves versus Phillies,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: and I mean, if anything, it was nice of the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Padres for everybody not on the West Coast to make
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: that less of a game than we needed it to
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: be for those who had maybe a 9 p.m. Central start.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I can't imagine trying to watch any of that game
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: on the East Coast, but what's your take been? I mean,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: we've gotten through six games now of these playoffs. We
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: were a little bit unsure about how they might be,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: especially given the weak AL field, but I think I'm
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: feeling good about the way these playoffs are shaping up.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: The nice thing is that I think most teams have
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a shot. All the teams in the field have some
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: sort of fatal flaw, it feels like. And so it's
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: going to be fascinating if the Dodgers can't pull this
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: three-peat off because it throws a wrench into all the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: owners and their lockout kind of murmurings as we get
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: into the offseason, which will be interesting. funny to see if,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: you know, let's say it's like a Padres-White Sox World
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Series or something. So, what's your feeling been after the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: first day and a half of playoffs?
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's been exciting to see some of
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: the teams, like, that are hot bringing it. Like, big
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: names showing up. Like, it's all been very exciting games. Like,
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: as much as some of them were blowouts, like, there
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: was big storylines. Like, Ben Rice going off. Like, that
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: was fun to see. The White Sox doing White Sox things. Like,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: That was... Oddly, I kind of saw that one coming.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but it just felt like.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: The Astros were pretty trash. 500 team, it was not
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: a great squad. The White Sox steamrolled them.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: The whole first day, it was like the four teams
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I thought were going to play through were all the winners.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Not as much today, but that's a little bit more
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: of the Phillies-Braves dramatics ending that game. But to your point,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: there is... not a single like juggernaut, like even the Dodgers, they,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: they have issues, um, their injury issues, bullpen issues. Um,
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: and then you get the, the, the two number one
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: seeds that are the weirdest number one seeds out there.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Like it feels like this, these two teams every year
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: between the brewers and the, and the, the rays are
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: like these really, really great teams, like the word team,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: like they have really well rounded, good depth, good bullpens,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: things like that, but there's not, they lack a little firepower. I,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: I apologize to Jacob Mizorowski when I say that, because
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: I think. He is firepower by definition, but the rest
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: of that team just feels like they're really just really,
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: really good. And so they're good for longer series to
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: see what happens. So I think the field's wide open.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Who do you have in the World
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Series this year? If you had to pick, who are
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: the two teams you have going?
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I do think that because of it
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: being such a condensed field, I'll say in terms of
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: talent level that We're looking at we've got four squads
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs here between San Diego, Milwaukee and Tampa
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: who haven't won it. And then you've got Cleveland, who
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is the longest drought for a team that has won it.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I think one of those four teams has a good
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: shot this year compared to some of the other years
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: where honestly, I'm kind of feeling Brewers in the World
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Series versus Cleveland at this point. Like Cleveland, they've only
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: got to overcome the White Sox. And I think whoever
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: comes out of that Rays versus Red Sox slash Yankees series,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: that trio of teams is the best, but I think
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they're going to beat the crap out of each other
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in that division series, as opposed to you could see
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the Guardians, you know, getting a quick sweep against the
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: White Sox. But I mean, the White Sox are pretty scrappy.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: The problem is that we didn't, the Astros did not
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: test that pitching staff at all, which has been running
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: on fumes for two months almost. It feels like you
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: could see it with Sean Burke tonight. I mean, Eric
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Fetty looked pretty good in that bullpen role, so maybe
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: that'll help, and maybe a couple days rest will help,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: and getting over the hump of the Astros, but I
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: do feel like it's setting up pretty well for Cleveland
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: to be able to get back to the World Series,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: and I think the Brewers are probably the most complete team.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think they have the highest ceiling. That probably
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: is more of like the Dodgers or the Rays, but
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I think because the Brewers are going to be getting
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: into the division series all rested up and they've had
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: plenty of time to be able to prepare for the
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Cubs and the Padres and even the Dodgers. I think
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: this could be the year that they get into the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: World Series and I think win it all. I think
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going my World Series is Milwaukee, Cleveland to much
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: to the chagrin of all of those teams. owners crying,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: crying poor out there and it's going to be a
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: good old Midwestern party, but, uh, yeah, Brewers and probably
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: seven over the guards is what I'm feeling right now. How,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: what do you, what are you feeling as you're looking
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: at this playoff field? Yeah.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think we're, we're probably talking the same,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: I'll call it final four. Um, as we look at
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: this here, cause I, I've, I've definitely think, uh, Tampa
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee are, are going to be able to advance. Um, I,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I don't see any way the Dodgers don't advance to
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: the NLCS. Like the Phillies, they've looked pretty atrocious and
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: the Braves, like they've just not had the playoff vibe
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: for a few years now. They keep getting there and
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: they just don't have the firepower to make it happen. Um,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: but I, I just worry about that ceiling of the Brewers,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: especially from a pitching perspective after Mizorowski and Henderson, like that,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: like it's those two, I know Gasser has been pretty
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: good as well, but like, it just, it's a little,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: little rocky there for me. And so I think I've
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: got the Dodgers over the Brewers, uh, in a tight
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: series there. Um, and I have going up against the race.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: And so I'm, but I'm going to the opposite. I
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: think I'm taking the raise over the Dodgers and I
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: think they're, they will outlast him in that series. I
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: think they're more complete team. I think the Dodgers will
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: get exposed pretty quickly as they get deeper in the playoffs.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: But I'm not arguing. To me, it was like either
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, the Rays, or I feel like who's going
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: to make it. It's just who's going to beat the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Dodgers coming through there. And I don't think the Dodgers
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: have enough this year to fully take it. A lot
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: of star power, but there's a lot more gaps than
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: there has been in the past years.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it does feel like without a fully operational Otani too,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: that's going to really hinder them. And just like, I mean,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: maybe Kyle Tucker refines it or something, but I don't know.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: He looks so toast and you're getting Andy Pahas coming
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: off of the hand injury. It is going to think,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers are going to struggle a little
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: bit for offense compared to what they've been. Almost a
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: lot of what the Braves have been doing, where the
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Braves have just like that offense has fallen apart and
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are they didn't quite do it to the
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: same collapse that Atlanta did, but, uh, it didn't feel
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: quite as strong and formidable as it did in the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: first half, uh, as evidenced by like the Padres just
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: kind of came on hot. And honestly, that might be
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the team that like, if that's the, the dark horse
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: that like, I think could also run it through it
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: is San Diego, but I think lots of people are
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: also picking them because of the nasty bullpen. But on
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: top of it, like, did you watch Michael King pitch
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: much last night? Cause like, dude, he looked like a wizard.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Like it was prime Michael King. Like he was geared up.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he was like using spider attack
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: or something, but like the change-ups were crazy. The sweeper
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: was breaking. And like, if they get that type of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a Michael King to show up every start that he's
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: out there, then I think that provides a lot for
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the Padres in terms of what I was worried about. Like,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: How do they get to that bullpen? But if, you know,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Michael King's giving you two good outings in a seven
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: game series and you're getting one usable start from Robbie
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Ray and who knows, maybe Musgrove comes through. I think
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: they can patch it together given how hot that offense
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: is right now.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: I do feel a little bad for the Cubs, though,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: because we haven't mentioned them at all.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: The pitching staff was so bad, and it got exposed
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: immediately in the first game. That pitching staff was not
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: going to carry them. It's awful.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: I know. I was looking through all these, and you said,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: I feel like it's anybody's game. I'm like, well, anybody
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: except for the Cubs. the one team over there in Wrigleyville. Sorry,
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Cubs fans. I'm smiling a little as I say it,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: being a Cardinals fan, but I don't see that team
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: pulling anything through. It's looked pretty rough.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: No, I mean, even compared to the White Sox, I
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know if they've got much of a chance
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: compared to the socks at this point, obviously they have
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: to overcome the one nothing deficit in San Diego and
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: they'll have that second game tonight. But like, you can
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: see some of the talent in that white socks, like
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: bullpen and rotation with like when Hagan Smith was on
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the mound and you're just like, Ooh, yeah, this will
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: work for two or three innings. Grant Taylor will work.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: And the socks I think can craft it with some
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen arms. I don't see how the Cubs
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: do it. Like, no, there's no path to the rotation working.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: And the White Sox are playing with house money. Like they,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: there's no fear. And to your point, like they can
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: take whoever's hot and just ride them for two or
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: three innings. They don't have to worry about egos like that.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: That is an up and coming team where the Cubs,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: I think they've got this heap of expectations on them
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: that they've put on themselves and they're going to really
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: struggle because their window is closing. It was a small
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: window and they did. I'm not going to do it
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: this year. And so I think they are really pressing
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: and they've run to a buzzsaw of a Padres team.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: You know, we both think the Brewers will handle the
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Padres over a long series, but I just, yeah, I
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: think the Cubs will be done later this evening if
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: I was guessing.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Me too. I mean, I don't, I don't
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: know if necessarily like their window is closing, but you
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: can see a closing because like, there's just something with
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: that ownership group that they refuse to put in that
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: last kicker to get them over the edge in terms of,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: investment the way that you can almost count that like
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: some of the bigger market teams will do and that's
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: the Cubs don't play that way which is kind of
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: strange considering like they should bully everybody else in the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: NL Central dollars wise and we've just never seen them
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: do it underneath this ownership group so and if they
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: go into the offseason I don't think it would be
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: that hard to add a couple of arms and try
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to turn it around because the offense and defense are
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: great but I just don't know if they're going to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: do that ever and that depth in the actual system
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: is barren from an arms perspective for the Cubs. I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: wrote about it literally all season for baseball perspectives, where
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: it's just like, I don't know how this team gets
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: to the deadline. And then they traded for pretty much
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a rotation at the deadline. So that's how they got there. Okay. Well,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: that's going to wrap us for the playoff talk for
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: this week. We'll obviously have it going over the next
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Our main topic is going to be
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: our 2026 fantasy wins and losses. we're just going to
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: focus on some of the picks that we had, especially
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: during our preview series and any other place that we
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: had takes or any other lessons, you know, might as
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: well do it while it's kind of fresh in our
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: mind as we're, I mean, we're still in leagues where
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the payouts, we're still working through it and stuff. So
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: like we're tallying it all up and teams are still
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: getting set up and rolled forward for 2027. Plus, I mean,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: there's just been so much sports with the playoffs kicking
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: right back off and, Here in Chicago, I've been going
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: nuts for Case Keenum since Monday night, so there's just
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: too many things going on at once. Hockey kicked off
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: last night, so people might still have plenty of debriefing
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: on Fantasy Baseball fresh in their mind to do this weekend.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: We'll get you started there on this podcast. Before we
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: do that, we still have a couple other bits of
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: news and notes that broke late into the season. First one.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Is it feels like this was a month ago, but
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: it was just this past weekend was Justin Verlander getting
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: that first or that last outing of the season in,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: and in his career, big emotional moment, especially his daughter
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: coming out to get him off the mound. And just
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the ability for him to go out there and pitch
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: period was pretty impressive. Gave us a five and a
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: third grade innings with six Ks and gave up a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: couple of solo shots, but like, looked like a facsimile
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of Justin Verlander, which was really fun considering that he
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: hadn't pitched since March when he threw those pitches on Saturday.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: And even like in terms of minor league rehab stints,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: like he had been shut down. Like they, they, he
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: pretty much ramped it up, let it air out and
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: went out as one of the great moments I think
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: of this season and certainly going to be fondly remembered
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: by Detroit Tigers fans across the board and easily going
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: into the hall of fame. definitely wearing a Tiger's hat.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It's going to be a wrap-up of 266 wins with
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: a 333 ERA over 3,576 and two-thirds innings. You also
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: add in three no-hitters. You have plenty of postseason accolades
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: that went towards his credit as well. So I think
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: that's going to become a bigger and bigger deal as
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: we start evaluating starting pitchers for the Hall of Fame.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: But this is going to be one of the surefire
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: starters that gets put in over the next 10-ish years
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: or so, because it's going to really dry up after him, Scherzer,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: and Kershaw, and Greinke, I guess, too. Greinke's probably a
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: surefire as well. But a great little moment for Justin Verlander.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Great little send-off. Nice little cap to his career. I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: think in terms of cards collecting, he's going to be
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: one of the hot names from this generation, so Certainly,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: given the rarity of his rookie cards back in the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: early 2000s as well, compared to our print runs now,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: people are going to be really into it, have a
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: lot of great memories with Verlander. What do you have
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: to say as we send off Justin Verlander and wait
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: until he rejoins the Hall of Fame and gets into
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: our PC? Because we don't have any PC cards for
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Justin Verlander, but when we've got this pod going for
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: a while, we'll put him in when he gets in
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, kudos to Justin Verlander. One heck of
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: a career he pulled off. You mentioned it, there was
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: a movie moment for him to come back, get that
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: last game, absolutely pitch well, and get the warmest reception
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: and walk off that he possibly could. There is not
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: a better ending for Verlander, and so it's just exciting
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: to see him go off. successfully into the sunset like
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: uh maybe not fully on his own terms but like
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: guys one year removed from pitching 150 innings uh for
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: the for the giants here so like he still was
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: able to bring it into his early 40s, which is
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: just incredible that he's able to do that. To your point,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: surefire Hall of Famer. There's absolutely no doubt about it.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: And just one of the most dominant pitchers of our generation.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I think the thing that sticks out to me is
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: just the longevity he has from 2007 to 2019. If
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: you don't have a page pulled up here, he pitched
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: over 200 innings every single year, except.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: For one.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Across that, that were the 13 year period. That is
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: incredible that he was able to pull that off and
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: just utter, utter dominance of being able to do that
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: from age 24 to age 36. And it was talked
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: about like for hall of famers, like five year run,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: the 10 year run, like he, he, he did both
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: of those and continued. And so it was an outstanding career. Um,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a long time before we see
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: another workhorse kind of like a Justin Verlander that comes
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: in early in his career and, uh, Jamie Moyers it
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: out into the forties.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, it was just like good the entire time,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: kind of time sievery where, I mean, Verlander was the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: number two overall pick out of old dominion. Like that's
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: how much of an arm talent it was that like
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: he was found right away out of old dominion. So yeah, Yeah,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: it is like a wire to wire career in terms
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: of just great performance and talent out of Verlander. So, yeah,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: it'll be strange not having him around in Major League
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Baseball going forward. So also going to really knock down
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the the number of people that have a major leaguer
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: older than them in the league now since he was
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the oldest one, you know, was going to turn 44
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: or still is going to turn 44 in February. It's
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: not just departing from this. This earthly plane. But yeah,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: so it's going to be a strange season in 2027
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: without Justin Verlander going from one Cy Young winner to another.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Let's talk Corbin Burns here, who, you know, it was
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: an interesting year, I think, for Burns, because. We had
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: him rehabbing from the Tommy John surgery. The news here
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: is that he was shut down at the end of
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the season and is looking like he is avoiding off
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: season surgery on that right shoulder that started barking on him.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if he's totally out of the woods.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: We've also just got, this is a guy who I
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: think lots of people actually drafted him during the draft
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: season earmarking like, Hey, I'll have him back by June.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I'll have him back by July. you know, Tommy John
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: surgeries go pretty well. Nowadays, he went down with his
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: surgery in 2025, midway through the season in June. So like,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: you know, you projected out 12, 13 months. You can
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: see where he can provide some value for you right away.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Getting back on that mound did not turn out that way.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Only got 10 and a third innings out of Corbin
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: burdens this season before this injury to his shoulder really
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: got the best of them. And the rehab was not smooth. Like,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: It felt like it was one step forward, two steps
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: back the entire time as he was not only it
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: felt like every week you were getting a new bit
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of injury news as Corbin Burns was making his way back.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: In addition, the stuff looked awful in his return. So
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: this is a tough situation because we certainly say that
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: it's good to see pitchers back on the mound before
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the end of the season, when you're talking major surgeries,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: major injuries, I like to see them make it. I
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if I like him to go back down
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the way Burns is. And especially when you're considering, like
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I said, that the stuff was not stellar. He's going
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: to be turning 32 in just a few short weeks.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: So is this somebody that you're looking at going into 2027?
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Or is this a, hey, Corbin Burns, I understand you've
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: got all the talent in the world, you had all
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the talent in the world, but you've got to re-show
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: it to me before I'm reinvesting in this type of profile.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think to your point, you wanted to see
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: him come back. I mean, use an example like Connolly
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Early came back for the Nationals, pitched one good short,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I think he got like three innings in, but that
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: gave you this confidence that going into the offseason, like, yeah,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: this guy's going to be okay. He's going to be,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: that's what we wanted to see with Burns. Um, and
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: I think already in 25, he took, he took a
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: pretty big step back on the underlying metrics. He, he
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: had a decent amount of luck. His, his ERA was 266, um,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: and 25 across those, uh, 64 innings, but his, uh,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: FIP was 394, which was the absolute worst his career
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: outside of, uh, the first few seasons that he was
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: kind of getting his things figured out when he was 23, 24. Um,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: But things were already coming loose there, and this just
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: adds to it that he's been battling injuries and just
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: isn't fully going to be able to figure out who
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: he's going to be. He's missing a few ticks on
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: his fastball in the few innings that he threw this year,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: so clearly the injury's cropping up. So I have to
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: say I'm generally going to be out on Corbin Burns.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: It's two years now of injury issues and kind of
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: declining profile, And I think the other thing that I'm
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: starting to use a little bit more as a barometer,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: which is always dangerous when you're making big brush assumptions,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: but if Milwaukee passes on a pitcher, it's a sign
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: to me that I probably should pass on them too.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: They've now done this with the Freddie Peraltas, Devin Williams,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Corbin Burns. They are getting out of those guys at
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the right time almost every single time. There might be
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: one season left two maybe, but like, it's like a
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: downward trajectory when these guys leave Milwaukee. Uh, I know
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: it might have a correlation with aging and maybe arbitration
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: to a degree. Uh, but it definitely is a concern when,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: when a good pitching factory like Milwaukee is saying, no, uh, we,
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: we think things are on the downward trend. You are
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: free to go elsewhere. Um, even like Woodruff, like we
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: talked about Brandon Woodruff, they continue to bring him back
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: and he was showing flashes when healthy. That's not what
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: they were seeing with Burns. And so Burns, even when
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: he was quasi-healthy, was not showing us what he had
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: earlier in his career. So I'm out on Corbin Burns.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I know we'll talk about some of our wins and
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: losses later. I'm trying to lick my wounds on the
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: injured pitchers. We'll see you a few days after the
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: season here. You know, revolution on my side to say
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: this is what's going to happen. Talk to me in
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: March and I could be back on the injured pitchers train.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: But right now I'm out. I'm Burns.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. The other component here too
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is like, I think, I don't know if like there's,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I've got like a great kind of non-gut feeling for this,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: but the Diamondbacks are not a great pitching factory in
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: terms of what they put together. Like certainly Brent Fatt
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: turned things around this year, but it also seemed a
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: little bit of like, why did it take so long
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: for him to turn the corner when he was so
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: bad for so long? And Uh, it seems like maybe
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: that went outside the organization to be able to figure
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: out a few things as well. Uh, you also see
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: like some of the guys that they dealt out of
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: this system have like picked it up, uh, in, in
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: terms of like, uh, Hagerman coming across to the Cardinals
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: and pitching really well, I believe it was Hagerman. Let
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: me look that up. Uh, no, who did they trade
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: to the Cardinals that came? Oh, I'm actually, I'm thinking the,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: the Texas Rangers maybe, uh, So strike that. But in
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: terms of the development of the pitchers, it's just not
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: working out quite as well as you would expect as
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: they've been moving things forward. I'm going to relook at
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: this again because I swear that they traded somebody to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals who's been good, and now I'm stuck on
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: this high horse. It was Daniel Egan. That's who I'm
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: thinking about, everybody. Egan was great for the Cardinals when
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: he came across and got some of that Heimblum magic
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: dust sprinkled on him so because of that i'm also
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: worried for like the long-term future of the d-backs of
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: like can they find the right answers for burns going
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: forward i don't know if they can i don't know
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: if they had the the expertise right now compared to
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: the rest of the league to be able to find
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: that extra tick or figure out what keeps burns healthy
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: so yeah i'm with you i'm i'm out that like
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: unless he's absolutely free at the end of drafts going
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: to 2027 there's no reason to kind of have Corbin
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Burns hanging around your draft boards at this point.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: I will take a broken elbow. Spencer Schwellenbach over Corbin Burns.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I think that's very fair. Honestly, he's kind
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: of Burns is in like the bucket of like Zach
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: gallon for me. It's like, this doesn't work right now.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: And until it works, you're in this, like, no, like
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: I can't like even acknowledge that I want to like
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: analyze this being on my fantasy roster. Cause I just know.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Like, it's just a poor, poor life choice.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. Exactly. Speaking of poor life choices, the Seattle
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Mariners and Dan Wilson finally let him go. It was
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: just a brutal, brutal season, obviously for the Mariners. And
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: they wrapped up going 76 and 86 when honestly they
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: should have run away with that ALS division. That was
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: so awful. And they had all the talent and honestly,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: just about everything went wrong. I can't really start to
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: identify one thing that even kind of went right for
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the Mariners this year. Cause like, their young players took
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: a stuck back in terms of Julio Rodriguez. And, um,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: you know, their pitching was just rough down the, the,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: down the stretch. Brian Wu was not himself, George Kirby.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with him going in.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Like George Kirby might be in that bucket with Zach
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Gallen where.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: It's like, let's not go too far.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: He looked busted for the last month. So did Logan
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Gilbert was struggling. Bryce Miller's up and down. Kate Anderson,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: it started to turn around a little bit towards the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: end as he got comfortable, but why wait that long
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: when you knew you needed him? Should have gotten him
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: more used to the big leagues back in June when
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: he was ready. Cal Rowley obviously backed up. Your win
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: that you're going to toot about your wins and losses
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: certainly had a much better season and is probably the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: one bright spot in Dominic Canzone. This is a team
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: that we had high hopes, I think, coming into into
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: the season for I'm looking back at our AL West
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: preview with Sam Wershing and he had no Mariners to
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: sell but he is a Mariners fan but I think
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: even you and I had trouble selling like you sold
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Luis Castillo because like easy I told Dom Kenzo was
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: my sell just because like I was like I kind
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: of don't mind the price on these players either but
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: if you invested in Seattle Mariners in their 2026 draft
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: they were brutal for you they were tough so what
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: are you doing going to 2027 knowing that We do
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: have a new coaching staff here, and I will say
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: that Dan Wilson was not on the cutting edge of
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: anything analytical, was given that post because he was in
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: their TV booth and made the move down and was
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: just kind of sitting there ready when they got rid
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: of Scott Service and went on a nice run and
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: stuck around. So I think there's a chance for a
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: better manager to come in and maybe spark some of
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: these players. But this has kind of also been the
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: story for the Mariners. They get hyped up. They fall
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: back to earth and then they kind of recycle again.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Is that recycling into 2027 something you're buying?
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm going to just use a broad
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: brush for the team. I think for almost any player
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: on that team, I'm going to take the last two
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: years an average amount as the way I look at it.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Because they did really, really well in 25. Rally, Naylor,
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: they did well at Julio. they performed. And then I
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: think this year that things just continue to sour. And
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: to me, that does kind of is indicative of the,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: of the coaching staff because things were working well before,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: and then they just continue to not get the support
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: and the insights and what they needed from that organization.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: So they just kind of started to, to fall off and, Typically,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: what you see with that is it's not that the
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: skill's falling off, it's the game preparation, it's the game planning,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: it's the selections and choices that are being made that
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: just don't put those players in the right position to
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: be successful. Because we saw glimpses of Cal Rally doing
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: great things. We saw situations where Kirby or Bryce Miller
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: or something would have an outstanding outing. The talent's still there.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: It's just something with the setup and the prep was
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: not where it needed to be for those guys. So
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to fully bounce them back to where
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: they were two years ago. I still think it's a
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: really tough stadium to hit in. I think there's a
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: lot of change that's going to be needed there. But
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: that team coming back, being healthy, getting uh what should
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: be a fully revised uh coaching staff which had should
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: have full new philosophy on things it can only only
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: help so i'm looking at a lot of those guys
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: with that have the talent as they have a really
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: good bounce back potential um i'm just i think it's
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: going to take a little time for that kind of
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: culture to come to where it needs to be because
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: it was it was rampant across the whole team um
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: like i said we'll talk about cam zone but like
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: the whole team just kind of took a big step back.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: It wasn't like one guy that was struggling. So that's
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: why I kind of look at it as truly a
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: little more of a coaching perspective. So I got an
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: up arrow on those guys. I'm just not going to
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: over invest in a team that still doesn't play in
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: the best ballpark for me.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I agree. I think that the, some
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: of those pitchers, the, the amount of wear and tear
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: that they put on Kirby and Gilbert too, does give
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: me a little pause, but like I'm in on Kate
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Anderson and, Bryce Miller is more of a coin flip.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: It's going to be about price. But yeah, I think
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: I agree with you that some of these guys will
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: just naturally bounce back to what they were underproducing anyway.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: But then some of it, I think if they start
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: well and they mesh well with the manager, you can
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: see a much different outcome, I think, for Julio and
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Cal going into 2027. It's almost a little bit akin
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: to like what the Mets ran into this year, where
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: it's like Once it goes off the rails, like people
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: do kind of start checking out. And I think that's
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: what happened to the Mariners in 2026.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Well, if you're in the show notes, because you were
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: looking for some of the links that we were talking about,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: you might be seeing the baseball card calendar down there
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: as well. We did have some updates and shuffling first.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I know this really affected you, Jeremy, because you were
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: all in on 2026 tops slash cause, and you knew
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: exactly what it was for. It got pushed back a week.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: It was supposed to come out last week, and it's
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: coming out next week now. So that got moved. October 7th,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: we do have a couple of bigger releases between Top
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Salon and Ginter, Museum Collection, and Bowman Chrome Sapphire all
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: coming out, 2026 products. It's crazy I state that, but
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: this wouldn't have been the the first year we'd still
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: be dealing with previous years tops update, 2026, October 14th.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: So we got some big stuff that we'll be talking
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: about in this pod over the next couple of weeks.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: And then we also have tops holiday coming out on
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: October 21st. So that might actually be our next three
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: pods there between Helen and Ginter update series and holiday.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I pre-ordered holiday this past week. My first pre-order of
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: 2026 tops products period. So I'm looking forward to that
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: coming up to my front door in a couple of weeks.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on this overall calendar? Because I guess
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: actually I should tell you too, Topps Cosmic Chrome is going.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: It's got an October pre-order. That's going to be pretty
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: popular as well. Juan Soto in a Mets jersey on
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: the product, which I think is the first product Juan
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Soto's been the feature cover on in a Mets jersey.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: It looks really weird. It kind of still throws me off.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: But lots of fun stuff coming up in advance of
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the holidays. You excited for some of these new releases
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: coming out?
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of good ones. Alan
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Ginter is always kind of a quirky little one that
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: is just fun to open for all kinds of different reasons.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: You know, you got Museum Collection, which is absolutely a
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: favorite of ours just because of the quality of those cards.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: Some amazing patches, things that they do. Update has a
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: lot of big rookies in there, so I think that's
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: going to be a fun one as well. We won't
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: spend too much time on Top Holiday. We both love
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: that product. Um, it, it's our opening day, kind of
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: guilty pleasure type of thing. Um, and then cosmic Chrome,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: cosmic Chrome. I, I have a little bit of a
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: rub with just because the price point is a little rough,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: but it continues to be just an amazing looking product.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: That's like this. One of those designs that they just
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: seem to get right. And when you run into them,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: even the, the base cards, as you run into those
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: in like a dollar box, two dollar box, like you're
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: picking them up just cause they're great art. Um, it,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: it kind of is, uh, kind of, it's like, stadium
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: club ask as far as like how the beauty of
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: the card itself is a version of art different way
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: from a photography versus, uh, digital art, if you may, but, uh,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: another great product, again, price point is going to be
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: a challenge with that. So this is a great lineup
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: and we're going to get them like back to back
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: to back to back, which is going to be really fun.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: And I think, um, for these coming out during playoff time,
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: I think is ideal for some of the hype. It's
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: going to be really interesting because, you know, you and
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: I kind of previewed some guys that could just kind
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: of pop off. I think this is going to be
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: one of those where there's guys in these products that
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: are going crazy in the playoffs and values are just
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: going to be going everywhere. So it's a great calendar
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: coming up. I'm really looking forward to getting a chance
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: to dig through some of these. Once everybody else does
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: the ripping, I'm just going to do the picking.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, it is going to be loaded for like,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Peyton Tolley, Cam Schlittler, Jacob Misiorowski. You're also looking at
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: just some other great players in terms of like McGonigal
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: and Connor Griffin and Weatherholt that are in these, but
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot of guys who are in the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: playoffs and they're going to be hot names on the
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: tips of people's tongues. So there's going to be a
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: lot of intrigue here as well as like, I think
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of foundational young talent in the 2026
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: just products period that like, We're going to see some
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: of it come to fruition here in the playoffs. But
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: going forward, I mean, you can already maybe tell as
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: I've been talking about 2027, I don't think we're missing
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: any games. I think they're going to come to a realization,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: especially on the ownership side. That's like, hey, like this
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: is not the time to be going through labor strife
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: for baseball in terms of looking for new TV deals and. Also, like,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: we really don't have it that bad just looking for
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: how much the Padres sold for and the Angels sold for.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: We're doing fine as owners. And so I think that
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: is going to be another component is you've got these young,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: young players that, like, I don't think MLB wants to
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: stop the momentum of what they could be looking at
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: in terms of just star players that have been rookies
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: this year. It's going to be a tight Rookie of
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: the Year race on both sides. And there's just going
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: to be a lot of intrigue. And so it's going
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: to be... I think a big series, especially update series
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to tuck away. It will have a huge print run,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: but I think there's going to be stuff that's buried
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: in there that people are going to want to be
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: coming back to five, six, 10 years down the road.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Okay. Well, that's going to wrap us for calendar updates,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: news and notes updates. We're actually not going to take
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: a break. We're just going to dive right into our
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: main topic here. Now we're going to talk about our
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: 2026 fantasy wins and losses. And since we're speaking on
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the day of his playoff start for the Red Sox,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: he did, as we were talking about those baseball card updates,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: give up a solo homer to Luis Garcia Jr. of
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. We've got to just make a collective pod
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: win on Sonny Gray, take our victory lap here. We
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: both called it out. Like, it wasn't even a question
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: when we were doing the AL East preview with Marmo's dad.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: When we came to the Red Sox, we didn't even,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if we actually like let him
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: go first the way we usually do with our guests
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: because we're just like, Well, Brew and I, the Boston
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Red Sox bias, Sonny Gray, which certainly yielded dividends if
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: you invested there. He was 126 off the board in
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: March ADP draft data from NFBC. He finished on the
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Ras Ball Playerator as 39th overall, a top 40 player.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: And a lot of it was because he racked up
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: 18 wins, but also gave you a sub three ERA.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: The strikeouts were down compared to what we've seen previously,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: but It didn't kill you. It's a little bit of
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: like what we've liked about Gray and Nathan Evaldi and
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: all these types of players where, sure, if you're going
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: to give me a strikeout-ish an inning and great ratios,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: I'll take it all day and I'll figure out how
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: to get more Ks if I need to because Sonny
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Gray probably was a league winner in many leagues considering
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: where he was drafted and the value that he gave.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: So join me on this victory lap for our boy
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's the every year victory lab. Sonny Gray
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: continues to be the underappreciated guy in the league and,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: you know, a guy that just puts together solid ratios,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: solid numbers. When he's on good teams, he wins games. Like,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I think there's a strategy to a degree sometimes of
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: picking starting pitchers on playoff caliber teams and just letting
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: everything else work out for you. And that's really what
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Sonny Gray is like. I think people are going to
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: continue to sour on him. I just, I don't, I mean,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: he's going to be 37 going into next year. And yeah,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: maybe things took a little bit step back. The velocity
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: was down for the second year in a row, but
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: under the covers, it's the same guy. Nothing has changed.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: And he's, he's definitely encroaching Nathan Evaldi territory. It was like,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: this guy's too old. I don't want to rely on it,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: but I mean, they're going to, we're going to roll
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: this thing back again and we'll see. I mean, it's
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: got a, got a mutual option for 27. I don't
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: know the exact value, but it might be one of
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: the few mutual options that actually gets fully picked up.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but it'll be fun to see what
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: really comes with Sonny Gray. And this podcast absolutely loves him. Yeah.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he probably goes back on the
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: open market. I mean, a little bit of this will
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: boil down to what we were just talking about with
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: the labor strife, but You know, he was the 12th
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: overall SP by Razzball Playerator, which is crazy. That means
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: he was the number one starter in 12 team leagues
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: if you set him and forget him from the beginning
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: of the season. And he was drafted. Let me see.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: about barely a top 40 starter. So you can see
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: where that ranking climbed. I guess, where do you think
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: he settles going to 2027 drafts? And on top of it,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: what is too, like, rich of a price to where, like,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: you would not be in on Sonny Graham. I'm guessing
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: you're not going to buy him as the 12th starting
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: pitcher off the board going into 2027. But is this
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: somebody where you would take him 25th starting pitcher? Because
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to settle. Maybe I'm answering the
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: question and putting into your mouth a little bit, but
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I think he's probably going to settle back into that
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: 40th to 50th starting pitcher and climb back to 2025
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: when the season's all said and done.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You're going
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: to draft him as number four or five. and he's
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: going to perform as a two or three. And that's
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: just his MO. That's what's going to happen. The age
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: is going to push him there. So I think there's
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: no denying, unless the caveat here, unless he just goes
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: crazy in the playoffs, right? And that brings that attention.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I think that will change the dynamic, but one game
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: is not going to change a ton. I think he's
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: going to be readily available in the mid to late rounds.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: And it's, it's a no brainer. It's an absolute no brainer.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: I throw my cards here and you know, I do
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: this because you play in leagues with me. Sonny Gray
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: is one of my first nominations at auction leagues because
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: nobody wants to put their dollars on the guy like
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: this because they're like, well, there's still the big names
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: out there, things like that. So you just slide a
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: guy like Sonny Gray in, put them on your team,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: get a nice little price like you're paying later in
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the draft and don't worry about it. Like that, that's
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: the kind of guy this is. And he's going to
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: do it again. Let's just lock it in. He's my
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: buy next year.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I mean, you just look at what he's
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: averaged over the past four years. It's a 3-4 ERA,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: which was bloated by the 4-2-8 in 2025 at the Cardinals,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: but you got such good strikeouts and 14 wins out
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of them, like it didn't kill you. And so, yeah,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I think you can pretty much set and forget like
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: a 3 ERA in your projections, along with like a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: 1-15-ish whip and maybe a strikeout in an inning. The
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: other guy that I'm going to tout when we get
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: into 2027 draft season is Michael Walker is this, but
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: it's the end of the, of the, the draft sort
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: of thing where like Walker has barely been like a
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: top three 50 top 400 pick for years going. And
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: he turns out value just the same way that Sonny
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: gray does. So you can find these guys surprisingly, just
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: because like, people are chasing big fastballs are chasing strikeouts.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: And I think folks forget that like it's way, I mean,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: it's not way, way easier considering the top end of
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: strikeouts nowadays, but it's easier to put together strikeouts than
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: it is to try to recover your ratios. As you
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: saw in our CBS league together, like I spent all
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: season trying to whittle down some bad April pitching ratios
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: and never was able to do it. Cause it gets
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: real tough when you're trying to, chase the volume, and
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: whittle down a bad whip or ERA from the first
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: month of action.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: It's not easy. It's not easy.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: No.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Well, let's go through back and forth maybe with just
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: some of our wins and losses. So I'll pass it
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: over to you. What wins do you want to tout
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: from your writing or our preview series on this podcast
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: that you want to call out and things that you
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: either kind of maybe put on the line, lessons you learned,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: or maybe patterns that you reinforced with some of the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: wins that you've got?
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm going to go with my obvious one
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: first because you mentioned it earlier, and I want to
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: take like a third victory lap on this one, and
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: it's Dominic Canzone from the Seattle Mariners. ADP, I wrote
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: about him as a deep sleeper in the spring. I
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: think at the time ADP was like 330. Um, and
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: he finished the play on the play Raider, like the
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: one 30 range, something like that. But that, that actually underestimates.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: And I think he's actually still a sleeper for ultra
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: degree for next year, because the big, big issue with
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: him coming in is he had a great profile. It
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't have a ton of like the history, um, but
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: he was being platooned even though he wasn't a platoon bat.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: And he worked himself with how rough Seattle was. He
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: worked himself into full-time duty the last few months and
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: has shown no worse for the wear. And so he
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: finished the season hitting 264, 23 homers, 77 RBIs, and
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: WRC plus 134. So that's across 146 games, 533 plate appearances.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: So he ends up playing a lot more than folks
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: expected and really was able to kind of, you know,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: line in with a really, really strong quality of contact. Um,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: he also improved his plate approach. The, the walks got better.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: The strikeouts dropped, uh, across the boards, things, uh, kind
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: of normalized, uh, the luck metrics kind of disappeared as well,
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: which is tells you, this is real. Like he was
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: on a 300 hitter like he was, uh, in, in 2025. So, Um,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: I'm really excited about count zone. I've got multiple places, keepers,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: things like that. He, I think he's still going to
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: be relatively cheap next year. Um, but this is the
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: kind of thing that you're looking for late in drafts
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: as a guy. that can give you strong numbers for
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: almost no cost. Because if you drafted Canzone, you were
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: not trying to play him all the time. You were
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: just using him in and out of the bench, and
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden you're into the late in the season,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: especially the playoff time. And he was a stalwart. He
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: was in the lineup day after day after day producing
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: for you. So don't let the line kind of underestimate you,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: because what you're going to see is 146 games, but
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: only 477 at-bats. which is because they were platooning him
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: and pinch-hitting him a lot earlier in the season. And
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: as the season got stronger, he played every single day.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: So those runs, those RBIs, those counting stats are depressed
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: from what they normally would be. So I think you're
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: actually looking at a guy here who's a 25-30 homer guy.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: maybe 80 runs, 90 RBIs, 260, 270 average. And I think, yeah,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: he's probably gonna still be ADP around like 200 next year,
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: even though he's still performed on a player rate or
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: like a 130. So absolutely thrilled with how Ken Zone did.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: And I'm taking multiple victory laps in this one.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a great call out too,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: because I think it's a learning point for me too,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: in terms of like, I was very, very concerned in
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: the preseason about him just being a strict platoon bat,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: not being able to get a full playing time out
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: of him. And sure, you would have gotten 75% of
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: the playing time, but especially when you're talking the types
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: of leagues where like you really need to take him
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: was like 15 teamers and like get production out of them.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: But in 2025, he actually had a good walk rate
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: against Southpaws. It was an 11% walk rate. Actually has
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: a higher walk rate against Southpaws this year to 15%
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: walk rate compared to a 6.7% walk rate against righties.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: so he's got a good eye against lefties. And so
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: I think that's something I'm going to look at a
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: little bit deeper whenever I'm on the fence about any
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: platoon bats that are left-handed going forward is like, what
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: truly is their production against, against lefties? Like, are they
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: not in there? Cause they just have better options and
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: the team is being, um, you know, playing that platoon
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: or is it because they truly suck against lefties and
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: like have no clue, but like can zone, if you
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: can control the zone, Um, yeah, that's going to play
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: in that turned him into a full-time player. And I think, yeah,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: if people didn't notice what was happening in the last
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: month or so of the season, he played brilliantly. So,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's going to be also on a lot
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: of sleeper lists, but believe the hype because he's turned
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: into a very legitimate hitter. It just kind of took
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: him a little longer and a little bit of like
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the mold of like Brent Rooker, where the, the, the
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: power has always been good. The Batsby has been good
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: and he's, put together a plate approach now that makes
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: them a pretty dangerous hitter.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. So, all right. You gave a win. I
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: gave a win. Should we go to a loss?
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, one was a collective win. So maybe I'll
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: take a personal win.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: You can take a win and then I'll lead with
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: the losses.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I'm going to, in the same vein of
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: like yours with Canzone being your number one win, I
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: think my number one win was The Colorado Rockies, you
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: go back to the NL West pod. I made two
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: buys because I was like, this is too crazy. The
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: prices are too insane. They're too cheap. Give me all
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: of the Jake Matthews or Jake Matthews, blah, Jake McCarthy
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: and Willie Castro, wherever you can. And I don't... it's
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: bananas with Jake McCarthy ended up doing. He ended up
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: putting up a season that ranked 38th overall on the
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: player Raider worth $ 24. So you're looking at a guy
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: who should have been like a third round pick according
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: to the overall ADP or the overall draft value. But
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: in ADP land back at the beginning of the season,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: he was, he's not even coming up because he's so deep.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: in this listing that I've got. Well, I've only got
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: set to pitchers currently, so I will reposition that. Boom. 346.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Like that's a lot of rounds of value. It was
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: a pretty easy pick. I thought that like nobody was
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: coming for that job and it worked out. Willie Castro,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: not maybe a stellar, uh, but under the hood, if
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: you used them only at home, the way that I
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: was advocating on this by you would have gotten a
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: slash line from him of, well, it's a one Oh
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: six WRC plus because of the craziness of Colorado, uh,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: It was a 309, 360, 475 slash line at home
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: in 56 games with seven homers and 28 RBIs in 50,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: like I said, 56 games. So he pretty much put
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: up like a 15, 80, 80 season with a 300
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: average at home. It was very, very useful. He played everywhere.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the other component here too is
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: that the Rockies, they're getting better. If you watch them,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: this season, like they're, they're playing much better baseball going
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: from an absolute fire within their general manager seat to
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Paul D Podesta is such a huge upgrade that even
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: though Paul D Podesta is not, I think like a
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: very cutting edge, great general manager for baseball in the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: modern day, it's such a huge leap forward that like
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: you saw it within lots of other aspects of the
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: way that they were playing. So they've, rolled with these players.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: They played them well. They, they platooned them well, but
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: you also saw it with like Connor Norby. They started
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: doing this with Connor Norby. They were playing in the
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: right spots and giving him the right matchups. So you
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: can have more faith. I think in Rocky's players going forward,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: because they're not just going to leave these guys out
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: there to dry and let their, their egos just totally evaporate.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Let all the hope go out of their bats that
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: they're playing the right dudes and you can trust them
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit and, and, I think they're knowing what
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: they're doing in some of their pickups now. So the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Rocky is going forward. I think there's going to be
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: a couple more that I'll highlight that like, we'll be
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: able to pinpoint going to 27, but I don't think
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: you're going to find another Jake McCarthy because that's maybe
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins I've ever had.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I'll give you credit. Like I'm Willie Castro.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Cause I mean, I used him so many times just
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: because of the positional flexibility he had and to be
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: able to do what he was doing. It was fantastic.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: But I, This is a tough one because it's so
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: hard to recognize an organization that's been so rough with
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: development and getting players in the right spots for so
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: many years that all of a sudden they start to
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: do it. You're like, nah, they can't actually be doing
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: what everybody thinks they should be doing. And all of
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: a sudden they do it. I think people are going
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: to struggle with this next year even, but I think
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: that is a lesson. And it's always a dangerous game
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: to play platoons or play home away splits or things
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: like that. But when you're in, especially like weekly leagues
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: and things like that, where you're not trying to do
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: it on a daily basis and get so fancy with decisions,
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's actually more dangerous there. If you're in
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: those weekly leagues and you see a slate at home
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: or a slate of lefties or whatever it is, that's
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: a really nice cheat code where you can kind of
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: play those and let them ride because guys can get
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: days off here and there. So even if they miss
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: a game because of a matchup or something like that,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: that's where you're going to outclass your opponent. So You're
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: absolutely right. This was a big win. You played it
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: all season. It took me a while to even buy in,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: but you were there early on this one.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the other component, too, is that Coors Field really
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: does clean up for any sins that might be on
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: those savant pages, too, because Willie Castro does not have
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: a great savant page, but Coors Field's great. So, I mean,
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I think, honestly, between TJ Rumfield, Connor Norby, and Kyle
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Karros going in next year, those dudes are not going
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: to be properly valued, I think, and they're all going
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: to be pretty big sleepers, even though Rumfield just hit 300.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of value because those guys, I think,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: will fall out of people's minds when the three of those, Rumfield, Norby,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: and Karros, should be locked into roles into 2027, and
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: all are pretty good compared to Jake McCarthy and Willie Castro, especially.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: All right, so I'm going to stick with the Colorado
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: theme here for one of my losses.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're going to go for the L?
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: I'm going to go for the L and oh, I
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: whiffed on Hunter Goodman. Um, I whiffed on Hunter Goodman bad. Um,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: and the, the, the, the funny thing about this is like,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: this is tongue in cheek to a degree. Like I
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: don't disagree with the analysis that I had because it
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: was still true. Like he had his plate approach got worse.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: The luck kind of disappeared. But I think what I,
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: what I underestimated, uh, first of all, was just the
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: absolute power Hunter Goodman has that at the catcher position, uh,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: is kind of a cheat code. And so the fact
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: that he, his batting average was going to crater, like he,
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: he had expected batting average this year, like the two
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: twenties and he's still managed two 45. I think that
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: some of that's the Coors aspect.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: And the fact that he's this catcher that was able
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: to play almost every day, hit 41 home runs. And
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: to be frank, he could have probably played another 20
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: games and he could have probably added another five or
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: six to that total. Like he didn't fully get there
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: and somehow managed five steals. I don't know. But like,
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: he had all the hallmarks of like the, this is
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: going to fall apart. And I truly think at some point,
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: this does fall apart. I just think that in the
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: Colorado air and at the catcher position that he has
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: a little extra something that the metrics don't account for.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: And it's kind of what you called out with the
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: baseball salon pages of like the Willie Castro's Jake McCarthy's
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: things like that. is that the all-around game kind of
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: gets kind of glossed over, even if you are kind
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: of rough around the edges. And so being able to
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: stick in the mellot lineup and just have the power
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: at that position. His ADP in the spring was in the,
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: I think, 70 range, somewhere in there. He finished the
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Ras Ball Play Raider, I think, as number 17. So
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: he was absolutely worth it in every aspect, and... Frankly,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: his savant page of 26 works, looks almost even worse
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: than 25 because all he did was swing for the
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: fences all year. And that's honestly all he had to do.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe the wheels will fall off sometime. I'm
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: probably still going to shy away too, because I think
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: his ADP next year is going to be insane. He
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: was already a fifth round kind of guy this year.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be creeping to like the third.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: And I think like, I'm still sitting there. Like I
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: don't want to call him a bust, but like there's
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: a lot of risk in that kind of profile. So
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: I'm still going to be, probably a little shy on Goodman,
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: but I can't, I mean, yeah, I think I did
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: the exact opposite of you with the Coors Field effect.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: I just did not give him credit for that might
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: be the perfect profile for Coors Field.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, honestly, he did most of the damage
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: on the road. So he hit 25 bombs on the road,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: 16 at home, hit 255 on the road, 235 at home.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Part of it though, I mean, I called this out
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: early in the season, is that the Rockies actually, even
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: though they didn't have a lot of stretches where they
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: were at home for all of Coors field during the summer,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: they had lots where it was like Coors field in Minnesota,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: which Minnesota is actually a really good hitters park Coors
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: field in Anaheim in the middle of July Coors field
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: in Cincinnati in the middle of the season. So you
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: actually go through like these, uh, his splits by ballpark
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: on his baseball reference page, uh, Hunter Goodman cleaned up
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: on all those road trips where the Rockies had pretty positive,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: like road trips where they were going through small ballparks
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the summer. So I think that
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: really helped. I mean, something to consider maybe with the
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Jake McCarthy and everything else that we're talking about Rockies,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: but like, if anything, it should make it easier next year.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Cause like usually the Rockies, they do a good job
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: of stacking an entire week in Colorado to reduce the
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: the altitude effect going in and out of Denver. And
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: if they go back to that in 27, because 26,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I will say was an anomaly compared to what they
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: usually do for the Rockies. You might, it might make
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: it even easier to roster these guys because you'll be
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: able to know, okay, they're in Coors Field this week.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: Next week, they're at St. Louis and at the Mets. Like,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: you know, you can start like penciling things out. And so, yeah.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: And I do agree with you in terms of your assessments.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: This profile for Goodman, it is not going to make
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: it past 30 years old. No.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: This is the Brooker profile, the Adonis Garcia profile. Like,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: this is those guys. And so the wheels are coming
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: off sometime, but just enjoy the ride while it lasts.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. But something to consider maybe in dynasty leagues that, like,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: you might want to start trying to find your way
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: out from a Hunter Goodman sooner rather than later. Because, like,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: when it goes, it's going to go. It's going to
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: look real bad because he's not going to hit anything. Okay,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: with that, I'll talk about one of my L's. I
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: think my biggest L was buying into young injury prone pitchers,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: I think a little bit too much. So the guys
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: I'm hallmarking for this are Jack Leiter and Max Meyer,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: where especially like when you're talking first round talents like that,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: you can see it when you're watching some of the
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: starts and you'll see it in small bursts. I saw
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: it at the beginning of the season with Jack Leiter.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Certainly Max Meyer was in that boat too when he
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: was rolling, but before sooner rather than later for both
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: of those profiles on lighter and Meyer, the injury history
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: is caught back up to them and they missed the
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: rest of the year. And before that, they were starting
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: to unravel before that, because I think what also happens
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: with some of these guys is they're so used to
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: wanting to stay on the mound and are so disappointed
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: with not being out there pitching that That when it
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: starts going a little sideways, they pitch through nagging small
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: things that they shouldn't. And the performance goes down. I
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: saw maybe a little bit this and like Yuri Perez
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: late in the season too but he didn't then bounce
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: back with that that big well the save with the
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: nine inning win that he also rattled off in the
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: first week and so I think it's something I just
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: got to like call a little bit going into next
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: year is that like certainly it didn't change my draft
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: day valuations of them but in season I it changed
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: some of my valuations of them and leagues. I had
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Jack lighter. I stuck with him for too long because
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: I saw the glimmers of hope. And I think that's
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: what I need to keep in mind when you've got
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: players like this, where there always have been glimmers of hope,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: but there's never been like a really sustained seasons, long
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: track record to move them into like a number one
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: or number two starter territory. You've got to show it
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: for a little bit longer. Troy Melton fell into this
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: bucket for me too, where, I wasn't quite as aggressive
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: when I moved him up, like my, my analysis later
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: in the year because of like what I'd seen in
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Meyer and, and Jack lighter. And that came into fruition
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: later in the year with Melton too. But like, there's
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: a reason why some of these arms look good and
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: were drafted well and have the prospect pedigree. And you've
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: got to balance that out with the overall injury profile
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: and what the, the just trail of production has been
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: behind these guys, because, um, Thankfully, it didn't cost me
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: too much, but there were, like I said, a couple
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: leagues I held lighter too long, and it did a
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: little more ratio damage than it should have, or I
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: missed out on players when I should have been zigging
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: and zagging with the waiver wire earlier than holding onto lighter.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: So that's my biggest L, I think, from 2026. Well,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's a fair one. Young pitchers are really
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: tough to understand and play. And I think you have to,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: there is kind of a balancing act of that injury
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: risk versus the potential. Cause if you went up the
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: draft just a little bit, there was a big pocket
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: of guys, the Mizorowski's, Cam Schlittler's, Nolan McClain's, that kind
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: of group, Gavin Williams, I think was in that. And, uh,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: but their upside was just a little bit further up
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: than I would say with the lighters and the max buyers,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: guys like that. And so I think it's kind of
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: a weird sliding scale that like, you gotta be willing
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: to take that risk on those kinds of guys because
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: they can absolutely jump off. Whereas I think guys like
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Meyer lighter, we were hoping they would become those guys. Right.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: And so you really have to be careful because I
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: think their, their draft day prices got out a little
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: bit further out and they had a much longer history
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: of injury and, injury risk. Now I, I think those
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: two players specifically, I think Melton may felt as well
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: also have had a lot of control issues, which I
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: think is another thing that I look at with like
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: the injury guys that throw hard and have some control
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: issues and are injury prone. Like it's almost this really,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: really dangerous disaster waiting to happen versus the guy that
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: are under control, kind of fluid with their motions. And
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: those are the guys that are going to be playing
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit longer and Not to say it can't work. Like,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: Mizorowski is a little violent in what he's doing.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: But there is a fine line. I don't know whether
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: fully diagnosed at this point. It's almost look and feel,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: but I agree with you. I've made the same mistake many,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: many times on the injured pitchers.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what actually it might be now
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: that I'm kind of thinking about it? And we talk
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: about this bias all the time, but I think it
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: also comes through on these players. is um i think
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: it is what i'm thinking jack lighter six foot one
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: max meyer six foot and like that's a world of
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: difference compared to like i think when i was making
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: those decisions too i was kind of nervous about like
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: i was in on cam schlittler and i totally was
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: into that profile and i did not get aggressive enough
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: with it in 2025 and even coming to 2026 and
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: i was afraid of like making the misstep and not
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: getting in on lighter and, and Meyer, those dudes are
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: barely six foot. Schloetner is six foot six. Peyton Tolley,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: six foot six. Like the dudes are huge. It's another
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: dimension where like, it just creeps the talent level up
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: further where like some of these guys are smaller. I
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: think they do struggle to stay on the mound to
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: be able to compete in today's major league baseball without
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: being able to like, Just really push it beyond their
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: actual physical limits, unless you're like a Yamamoto and a
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: total freak of nature.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, now we're going to go to the other side
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: and say Logan Henderson disagrees with everything you just said
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: because he had injury issues coming in. He's got a six-foot,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: and he absolutely shoved all year. So listen to all
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: the analysis you want, and then we're going to get
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: back to the spring, and we're going to sit in
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: here and go, but look at what the potential is, right?
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, because, I mean, you can talk about your next W,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: but I think he's a little bit more in the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Cam Schlittler, Peyton Tolley, end of the spectrum in terms
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: of what we're talking about.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. So talk about pitchers that have Really nice
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: profiles and are really big. We are talking Braxton Ashcraft
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: of the Pirates here. Ashcraft was a guy, and I
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: don't write on the side of the pictures, but there
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: was a guy who was absolutely buying everywhere. And a
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: few things with him going into the season. This is
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: a guy who was throwing in the upper 90s. His
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: average fastball was about 97%. Uh, coming to the year,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: he was, uh, uh, four pitch, uh, three pitch, four
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: pitch kind of, kind of guy. Um, he sprinkled in
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: the sinker and changed from, uh, pitch four and five,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: but he is what we, we look for. And we
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: kind of preach on this podcast. Um, and I'm going
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: to add the one factor, which is, I think the big, uh, strong, uh,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: muscle pitchers kind of, kind of thing. This is a
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: guy six, five to 18. Like, I think that's a
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: new one. I'm kind of adding, but, uh, strong control
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout per inning, uh, and ground balls. And in 25,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: 50% ground ball rate, just over three walks per nine,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: but it was 8% walk rate, and it had gotten
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: better throughout the year in just about a strikeout per inning. Well,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: in 26, and he was, I don't want to say
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: he was free at the draft table, but he was
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: not far from it. And when we talk about also organizations,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: Pirates have been doing a great job of developing, so
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: you can see all the good things coming. Guys hit
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: through 165 innings, He struck out 173. So it's nine
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: and a half K per nine walked under two per
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: nine for a 5% walk rate, which is a one
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Oh nine whip. Yes. He, he, it's not like he
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: won 20 games. He won 14 games for the pirates. Um,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: and he was going pretty deep into games. He struggled
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: with some injuries. And I think he, he tailed off
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: the end of the season just because that's by far
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: the most innings this guy has ever thrown. And so
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: that that's something to keep in mind, but, You look
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: at his Savant page, things got even better. And his
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: only issue has been actually some hard hit rates. But
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: the reason that works is the ground ball rates in
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: the upper 40s. It's okay if they hit the ball hard,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: but it's on the ground because that tends to go
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: to fielders. If it's in the air, it's a bigger issue,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: but absolutely okay. dominant season from Ashcraft. I, for whatever reason,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: it doesn't feel like he got enough mainstream attention. So
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: I still think he might be a value going into
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: the next year. And I guess I didn't look to
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: see on the player Raider. You probably already have, but
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: he was 66 on the player Raider at the end
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: of the season.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, that's the 17th overall SP like, I mean,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: I think what I liked the most about brass and
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: Ashcraft season was putting up those 165 and a third innings,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: especially cause like, when he came out of the all-star break,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: he looked tired. He had that seven run outing. They
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: followed up with a four run drubbing, but that was
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: at the end of the Cubs. And then came back
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: and just like finished strong. He had a complete game
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: 10 K strikeout on August 13th against Pittsburgh or against Miami.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: Even though like traditionally the, the like, Normal calculation of
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: how many innings the guy has is like 20 to
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: 50 percent of his previous year. He blew way past
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: that this year, which you love to see because he's
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: had the injury issues kind of earlier in his career.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: But I would say compared to what we're looking at
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: with Meyer and Leiter, he's got the build to be
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: able to make it through the season. He got to
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: those 165 innings and he looks strong doing it. Um, yeah,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: I loved Braxton Ashcraft coming into the season too. I
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: had him everywhere that I wasn't in a league with you. So, uh, yeah, I,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: he's a, he's a very sneaky top 25 pitcher next year.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: He's a number two starter draft him that way. You're
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: going to have to be aggressive because there will be,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: I think there's going to be Braxton Ashcraft truthers peppered
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: throughout there a lot more that like some people will
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: be shocked by the, by the draft day price, but
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: he's going to go in the top 25 pitchers. and
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: he should go in the top 25 pitchers.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't dug into the stats for this season yet.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: That's usually like a November thing for me. I let
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: it simmer for a little bit, but I'm going to
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: be looking. I'm updating our archetype. It's 1K per nine,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: three walks per nine or less, ground ball in the
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: mid to upper 40s, and 6'5. I think that's the
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: pitcher recipe right now that I'm chasing, and I'm very
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: interested to see how well that plays. but I, it
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: just feels like those are the guys that pop off.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: Those are the guys that are able to do it.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think you're onto something. Maybe the other wrinkle
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: I would add is four plus pitches.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Because I think that's what we're also seeing in modern
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: day pitching is that like, especially what's really led to
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: the Ashcraft doesn't do this, but what's led to like
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: the Schlittler totally success is the three fastball mix. And
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: then two breakers off of that too. Plus like the,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: other thing that makes it tougher to distinguish and I
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: think axe crash Ashcraft does a little bit more of
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: this is that lots of pitchers are throwing multiple versions
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: of curves and sliders at least the best ones are
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: yeah so yeah you've got to have four plus four
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: plus pitches I think to be able to be a
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: starter nowadays and And five is preferable. And honestly, like
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: variations that push you to six or seven are even better.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Cause I think that's the other probably trait. If you
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: probably put together a grid like that, you're probably only
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: going to find really great guys and find your next
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: kind of batch from that as well too. Okay. Well,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: I'll go to another win. I'm going to go with
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Carter Jensen. I called it as my buy for the Royals. I,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: never been close in a bowl prediction prediction. And Carter
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Jensen almost got me there. I said, he's going to
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: hit 30 homers, hit 27, 80 runs, 81 RBI batting average,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: two 39. That's fine for a catcher. Uh, Andy wore down.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: Like I think he did everything in the 149 games
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: that you wanted to see out of Jensen in a
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: rookie year. And that was just the base. He was
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: only 22 turned 23 in July and, I think that
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: is also kind of skirting past folks. It's kind of
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: surprising like how little I heard about Carter Jensen as
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: the season went on. And he's going to be probably
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: like a top five catcher for me going into next year.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: That like, yeah, because Ben Rice won't be there anymore.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: You're going to have Goodman, Baldwin, Moreno.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: Don't go on Dillinger.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: I would rather have Jensen than.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: Give me Dillinger over Jensen.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: Uh then or dingler yeah dingler uh dillinger is the.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: Uh dillinger that's a dingler yeah that's a that's.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: A chicago gangster um i would rather have carter jensen
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: than dingler going into 27 myself the age the that
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: lineup is only going to get better that lineup was
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: so bad around him this year uh same thing with
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: bobby with the counting stats are going to bounce back
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: And I think there is a 40 Homer bat in this, in, in,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: in this bat eventually for Carter Jensen could be next year.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: It's possible, but like it really flew underneath the radar.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: And I think maybe people will be into it next
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: year as we get into further analysis, when people kind
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: of unpack what happened in 26, but yeah, the way
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: that I was in on him coming into 26, it
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: was just bat speed. He showed great bat speed in
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: the small sample size when he was playing in 25
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: and and it carried right over. So I think if
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: you're looking for somebody that could be the next Carter
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Jensen in 27, look at some of those bat speeds
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: from August, September, and some of the smaller debuts. Find
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: somebody that's got good bat speed and hit the ground running.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: So you want to know just the fun of Savant,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: you can go down a lot of pages here. One
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: of our favorite things to do is just the similar profiles.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Do you know the most similar catcher to Carter Jensen?
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, is it Drake Baldwin?
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: Hunter Goodwin.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: Oh, that's good. That's great.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: You think about it, like if you look at his profile,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: it is like Diet Hunter Goodman. And, you know, maybe
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: as a little insult, like he has a little bit
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: more play to approach. He walks a little bit more.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: But the overall profile of he strikes out a lot.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: He whiffs a lot. He swings hard. Not going to
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: hit for a high average. It's really kind of a
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: tradeoff here of Jensen as a little bit more patient
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: and maybe picks the better pitches. Um, whereas Goodman just
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: swings out of his shoes and does it, but like,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: it's kind of the same guy at the end of
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: the day. So, um, I, yeah, maybe I'll give you
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: a little credence. I'm going to put him like six,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: seven next for next year. So for all those kids
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: out there.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, the other factor too, he's actually a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: good defensive catcher. So like in dynasty leagues, you don't really,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: I think there was probably some worry that Jensen might
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: not be a good defensive catcher, might phase out a
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: catcher quickly. Um, I think he's probably got a good
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: four or five years catching. So, something to consider for
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: dynasty keeper leagues that like, he's not going to be
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: moved off of catcher anytime soon. He's the, he's the
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: catcher that they've got in Kansas city and really is
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: the future there. Okay. Do you want to do your
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: last win or your last loss first?
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: I'm going to, I'm going to go by my last loss.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: I want to keep going on the pitcher train here
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: and this one hurts, but like in hindsight, I, Yeah,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: I should have seen this coming. We all know, we
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: talked at the spot, I love the Japanese market and
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: players coming over. And the hype of Tatsu Imai was
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: a little too much. And I missed this one. And
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: let's just quickly say the few reasons why. Cause we've
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: already discussed them. Uh, we have, uh, guys that have
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: control issues with, uh, injury backgrounds. We have guys that
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: are not the biggest five 11, one 76. We have
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: guys that throw four or five pitches. Um, And so
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: you kind of look at those and it's a little
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: harder when they're coming over from Japan to truly understand
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: all that. But, um, and also from an overall velocity perspective,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: he's like average for the MLB. Uh, he's, you know, 90, uh,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: he's literally 55th percentile. That's a 95 average fastball. Like
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: where's coming from Japan. He, he was a little bit
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: more dominant in that aspect. And so I think that
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: evaluation kind of missing some of those pieces of data
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: that you couldn't see as easily, um, I kind of
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: bought into the man, this guy has been dominant. He's
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: been getting better. He's got the moxie. He kind of
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: shows like he's a true major leaguer. The stuff just
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: wasn't as strong. And I think what really hurt him
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: is the durability and the, and not having a third
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: or fourth pitch to really go off of. And so
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: I kind of want to use that loss. I think we're,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: we're kind of talking around the pit pitcher archetype today.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: And he was a guy that for all the excitement
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: coming over, And he got a decent contract. It wasn't
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: as much as we thought he would, but that might
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: have been something to read into as well. He just
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: didn't hold up. Did he strike out the guys like
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: we expected? Absolutely he did. But the control regressed when
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: he got to better competition. And so I think as
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: I go forward, I look at some of these guys
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: coming over. I think it is true that a lot
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: of the players, pitchers coming over from Japan struggle initially.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: We've seen it with guys adjusting, but you need to
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: see higher velocity, bigger body builds and multiple deeper pitchers.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: So you think about like a Yamamoto, like you have
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: that general archetype working with Yamamoto. It didn't really play
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: with Amai. He's probably going to end up being more
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: of a bullpen arm for this Astros team going forward.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: And so I think as you look at the next
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: wave of guys to come over, I think we have Ito,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: Hiromi Ito, that's kind of being talked about being posted
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: this fall, which will be really interesting with the lockout.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: That's another kind of guy you're really going to have
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: to look deep into. Has a lot better control, a
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: lot better durability. But I think we have to be
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: careful to see. I think, again, you talk about a
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: smaller guy. That's what you're going to you're going to see.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: So we're just going to be careful with this archetype
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: in the future. Yeah.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And I mean, the other thing, too, is that
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: I think. projections have gotten better at doing this coming
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: over because i was looking at his preseason projections most
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: outlets had them between like a 4-2 and a 4-3
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: or 4-4 era so i think they were kind of
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: picking it up and what we were doing as like
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: a fantasy community was overriding that and saying oh you
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: actually we like this velocity goofy slider maybe it'll work
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: and you also saw that slider in action on is
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: just like that thing is just backing up like that's
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: not It's a, it's not a goofy slider. It's a
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: bad slider. And so, yeah, I think there are a
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: lot of indicators there to like stay away from it,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: but because it was just such an unknown box too,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: that I think people were hyped for it. We had
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: just seen Yamamoto go crazy. We had seen.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Imanaga worked well.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: Like. Yeah. Sasaki looked great in the 25 World Series.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that the reasons you buy. So the,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: all these other guys, they're all going to be the same. Like,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: It was too easy to buy into that, and I
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: fully did. So I had a lot of teams, and
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: I got bait early. So I saved myself a decent amount,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: but it was not a wise investment. All right, where
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: are you going to go? Are you going to go
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: back to a win or a loss?
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we can both finish on a win, so I'll
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: do my L now. I'll just kind of collectively throw
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: out just the Nationals, evaluating the Nationals. It was tough.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: I didn't see them, obviously, like holding into the wildcard
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: race as long as they did. But if you also
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: I will throw you under the bus with me.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: Because I didn't want to talk about this.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: You go back to the NL East discussion when we
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: had Chris Towers on. He nailed the Dylan Cruz sell.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: We sold James Wood and CJ Abrams, two guys who
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: put up first round value in twenty twenty six. whoops,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: even though I have CJ Abrams in lots of places,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: I just was like, yeah, I was just, I was,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: I was like, I don't know if he can actually
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: put it together. And well, he sure did. He did excellent. Uh,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: James Wood did excellent. I mean, I think some of the,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: the risks that you pointed out in James Wood's profile,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: we're still there in terms of, it's almost like Hunter
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: Goodman where just like the actual kind of approach isn't great,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: but the, the talent is so in grade and the
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: youth is, working for him that he's able to override it.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: But I do. think that as James Wood moves forward
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: another four or five years, he's going to have to
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: find another wrinkle to be able to consistently get to
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: his pole side power the way that C.J. Abrams has. C.J. Abrams,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: he's stuck. Honestly, it worked. But then on top of this, too,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: I've folds in honestly the biggest L that I had
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: at the year. And maybe it might be like one
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: of my all time biggest fantasy Alice's. I joined the
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: podcaster auto new league was invited by DVR and joined.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: And in the off season, I traded the Ms straight
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: up for Dylan Cruz. If you're not familiar with, uh,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: auto new, it's a 40 man dynasty keeper league salary
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: set up. So there's lots of moving parts. Um, I
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: had a great rotation. So like I had Chase Burns,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: young Chase Burns, who was undervalued and some other pieces,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: a great bullpen. I had no depth in my outfield
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: and I just needed another like 15 to 20 stolen
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: bases to feel good going into the draft. The other
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: component here too is auto new. There's a dead period
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: from the cutoff of trade season, which is January 31st
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: through your draft date. So you go into a black period.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: And so I traded Mizurowski for Cruz at the end
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: of January and I mean, all the projections for Miz
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: said like a four something ERA. He did not show
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: the control that I needed last year. We're also like
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: this dude throws 105. His arm looks like it's going
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: to explode. And yeah, I just sold the greatest pitching
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: season in modern history for Dylan Crews. who gave me
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit of value. I got some stolen bases,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: got fourth. DVR got second in our all-new league, mostly
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: because of Jacob Mizorowski. Like, all because of Jacob Mizorowski.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: So it wasn't great. But, like, I don't feel terrible
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: about the process because, like, selling, starting pitching for hitters
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: will work. Maybe I should have gone a little higher
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: than Dylan Cruz, especially knowing I was dealing with a
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: Brewers fan. But also, it kind of calls out, like,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: that Jacob Mizorowski season, it still is. I still have
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: not like digested how it happened. Like it came out
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: of nowhere, but immediately when you saw him pitch in
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: the first game, the season two, it was just like,
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: oh crap. Like we all collectively did not get this right.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: Like he leveled up in the off season and now
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: it was just like right-handed Randy Johnson going forward. So yeah,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: from a process perspective, I will probably still always trade
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: the pitcher because But maybe if it is somebody who
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: is the freak of nature, the way that the Miz is,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: I should maybe do a double take before I accept
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: a trade. But yeah, the Washington Nationals, I think, blew
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: everybody out of the water, too, because the other component, too,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: is the offense was so good. You got the counting
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: stats from James Wood. You got the counting stats from C.J. Abram.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: And it looks like you'll get it going forward because
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: it's a solid core.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm trying to make you feel a little better.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's as strong as what you did here,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: but in one of the leagues we're in, which is
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: a keeper league, six-player keeper, last year I traded Miz,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: and I was in the hunt, and so I traded
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: Miz for two closers because saves was an issue, and
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: I ended up, from a keeper perspective, I kind of
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: keep him basically for free, and I traded him knowing
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: I could keep Cole Reagans going into the next year. Um,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: and so I'm kind of right there with you. It's like,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: you have to make those, the process was fine. The
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: choices were fine. The outcome probably wasn't where it needed
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: to be, but yeah, we, we both missed on the
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: nationals and, um, yeah, you really missed on Ms.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: Yep. I'm the baseball perspectives, fancy baseball writer for starting
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: pitching baby. I mean, he was, I featured him a lot.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: He was, he was great, but yeah, that was, it
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: was bananas that season that we just got from the Ms. Okay, well,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: end us off with your last W, and then I'll
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: come back with mine.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm going to finish here with a guy
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: that was going in the spring. ADP was in the 170s,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: and from an overall season perspective, let me see exactly
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: where he finished on the player radar. I had it up,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: and I already lost it. Finished 27th on the player radar,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: so just a slight jump there. Got into the third
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: round overall. and that's Alec Burleson. Alec Burleson led the
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: National League in RBIs, hit 26 homers, hit for a
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: 279 average, kicked in a few steals, but was basically
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: the same exact guy back-to-back years, but in a Cardinals
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: lineup that got better, and that was it. Like, I
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: hate to say it, but, like, as I kind of
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: looked at him going into the season, I kind of
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: had him as a sleeper because, like, He had done
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: all the right things. He was just boring. Alec Burleson
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: was boring. He was on a team that was rebuilding,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: and it was just so easy to see if this
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: guy just can continue. It's kind of a canzone to
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: a degree, except for this guy had a full-time job.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: As long as he's able to play every day, and
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: the big difference was last year he had 546 plate appearances.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: This year he had 670 appearances. So he jumped from
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: 18 to 26 homers. He found a home that he
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: played every single day being first base. The profile got
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: slightly better, but his WRC plus in 25 was 124.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: It was 125 in 2026. He, again, wasn't really that
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: much of a different guy, but there was, again, he
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: was never going to be a 30 to 40 home
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: run guy. He was never going to get hit 300.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: He was never going to steal 20 bases, but he
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: was going to do just beneath every single one of those.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: And he was going to be above average in four
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: of your five categories. I didn't see the few steals there,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: but he's always poked in a few because he's just
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: a smart guy. So that's, to me, this is one
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: of those profiles that I think you have to look
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: for almost every single year, which is the boring, I
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: want to call veteran, but like Burt Liston is not
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: necessarily a veteran. I mean, he's 27, he'll be 28
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: here in a few months, but the late bloomer, kind
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: of guy that's just steady Eddie on a middling team
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: that can hit in the middle of the lineup. Like
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: that profile is going to work as long as they
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: just have a full run. And that's all really Burleson
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: was looking for was a full-time gig. And there was
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: no question he got it.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And I was in on Burleson too, that
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: I had lots of spots, again, leagues that we weren't
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: in together. And so, yeah, but I wasn't expecting this,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: but you could also like, see where this happens kind
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: of silently it feels like on teams that are a
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: little bit less renowned and aren't projected to be in
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: playoff races and stuff where guys just get slight role
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: upgrades where before the season burleson was kind of a
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: will he won't he stick as an everyday bat and
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: then coming into this season like it was set and
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: forget he's our first baseman and that actually kind of
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: rounded out the value, gave him also like the steadiness
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: of a position where he didn't have to be worried
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: about bouncing around the infield and the outfield and kind
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: of found a role in a home with the Cardinals
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: team that then improved around him. So yeah, something that
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: I think you can always look for going into seasons
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: where like around the edges, it usually happens on corner
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: players anyway, where the guy gets upgraded a little bit
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: from like the strongest type of tune to a full-time job.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: has good plate skills, it all translates, puts up a
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: whole 160-game season, and it comes together for you.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the other thing with a guy like Burleson,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: I think what really stood out was we have some
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: newer stats, right, in Savant and the StatCast. If you
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: look at kind of the guys that square balls up
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: and the guys that swing hard, like those two really
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: are correlated with strong, strong power. And he was one
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: of those guys that, in 25 squared up the ball
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: a ton and of guys that were squaring it up
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: as much as him, there's only two other guys like that.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: Cause he was like the top 20 of guys that
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: squaring it up. There's only two other guys that had
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: better bat speed with him. And his is just kind
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: of an average. Um, and those, those two guys, Juan
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: Soto and Ben Rice. Um, and so like, if you
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: think about kind of what he was able to do,
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: like he was just really, really good at making solid
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: contact and he swung hard. I mean, I, There's an
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: old saying, the hardest thing in baseball is to square
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: up a round ball. That's what he was able to do. Anyway,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: victory lap on Alex Burleson. But with that, I'm going
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: to go to you for your final victory lap here.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: All right. Mine was a pretty easy choice to put
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: it into my top wins. Otto Lopez, he was my
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: buy when we were doing the NL East preview with
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: the Miami Marlins. I liked what he had put together
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: in 2025 there. And it's actually kind of similar-ish to
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: Alec Burleson, where he was still kind of bouncing around.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: He did get to 594 plate appearances in 2025, but
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: was he a tweener in terms of sticking on a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: full-time gig? Was he a second baseman? Was he a shortstop?
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: He's on the Marlins, so on and so forth. But
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I saw him hitting 300, but
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: I certainly saw him being able to put up Plenty
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: of stolen bases and enough power to be able to, like,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: make sure that he stuck as an everyday middle infielder
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: for you. So it was crazy value coming into the
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: season where, you know, he was drafted all the way
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: down at P. number 214 turned in a season of
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: 30th overall in the player rater so I mean it
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: was just like a lot of little components of like
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: everything coming together I think what we've talked about with
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: Burleson you also layer in a little bit of something
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: that we've talked about over the years in terms of like, uh,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: you know, all Lopez was a pretty solid defender as well.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: So like you knew he was going to stick and
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: play every day for Miami. Uh, just, there was nobody
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: else coming for that job around him. And so he
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: made the most of it and then converted into also
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: like there's enough pop in the bat for Lopez where
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: it was never going to be like a zero power
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: output the way that like Xavier Edwards has nothing like that,
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: where lopez the the stats aren't quite as glowing but
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: the hard hit rate like he hits it and squares
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: it up when it matters and he's chasing uh certain
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: pitches and keying in on them and then you know
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: making sure that he's got the good plate discipline around
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: it so uh yeah auto lopez it was just kind
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: of like i feel like i i find these types
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: of middle infielders a lot the other one who was
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: in this mold was brian rocchio which when i brought
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: that up you actually like You laughed at it when
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: I brought it up.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: I'm still laughing at you.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: Bye for the Guardians. But he ended up putting up
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: a season that was actually useful in 12-teamers. He put
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: up $ 9 of value in a 12-teamer. It's a lot
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: of the same traits where the OPS doesn't pop, the
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: X batting average doesn't pop. But when you're playing every
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: day as a middle infielder, getting good at bats, you're
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: getting opportunities because the glove is there. you've got enough speed,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: you can rack up value just through volume, and certainly
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Otto Lopez did that when second base was pretty shallow
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: for us this year.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: Alright, I'll give you the credit on Lopez and Rocchio.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: I'm still going to laugh at you when I disagree,
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: but I think good calls, good calls.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: Alright, well that's going to wrap us up for this week.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: Hopefully everybody had a good 2026 fantasy baseball season and
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: is looking forward to the 2027 season. You've got your
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: own wins and losses you want less know about you
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: can email us at cardscategories at gmail.com or reach out
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: to us at cardscategories on blue sky and brew let
• 1:31:03
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• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: Yep find me on socials uh jbr17 twitter x and
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: blue sky anytime you want to find me this off
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: season don't forget to reach out let's let's chat baseball
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: coolly where can folks find you.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on Blue Sky chatting at mcool7, C-O-U-I-L-L
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: on that spelling of cool, like my last name. I'll
• 1:31:25
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• 1:31:30
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• 1:31:32
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• 1:31:36
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• 1:31:41
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• 1:31:45
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• 1:31:54
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• 1:31:57
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