Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Lawrence Lepard | Bitcoin is the Superior Asset | Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Lawrence Lepard | Bitcoin is the Superior Asset | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Hello everybody, Welcome to another episode of Simply
0:02
Bitcoin IRL. Before we jump into the show, I
0:04
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money and state. So check out bitcoinwell.com
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today. Anyways, no more delay.
0:33
I do want to bring up my very special guest, Lawrence Leopard,
0:38
so happy to have him back on the show.
0:41
I saw him in person. It used to be on your show.
0:44
Yeah, we we just saw you recently here in Naples and that
0:47
was a lot of fun. So thanks for having me back.
0:50
And that was a quite a bit. That was quite an interesting
0:53
panel to say the least. We had some interesting
0:55
characters on there. They sure were.
0:58
Bitcoin is a is a wide collection of people.
1:01
It's great. It's a big it's a big tent.
1:03
Absolutely. It's a it's a big tent.
1:05
Say Lee. So Larry, we are at the part of
1:08
the movie where the central bankers are saying the quiet
1:15
part out loud. I have a clip.
1:17
I'm sure you saw it on Bitcoin. Twitter.
1:19
And it's pretty crazy, so I'm going to play it and then we'll
1:22
react to it. Yeah, the fiscal challenges
1:26
etcetera that are there. So I'm very focused on being
1:30
cost effective. We actually fund ourselves and
1:33
then work out what dividend is needed to pay.
1:35
So we kind of work, but it's a great business to be in central
1:39
banking. Money and people believe it and
1:42
and and touch wood and. So so it's it's a slightly
1:49
different piece to that's pretty bad.
1:52
That's amazing Was who was that? Was this the Australian guy?
1:55
That was the the like the the head of the New Zealand Central
1:58
Bank. New Zealand Yeah, I love this.
2:01
Unbelievable. Yeah, we just, we make it up as
2:04
we go along and we just print the money.
2:05
It's no big deal. But I mean, this is what we've
2:08
been saying Bitcoin Twitter for so many years now at this point
2:13
that central bankers are are doing exactly the thing that he
2:17
just admitted, that level of hubris.
2:20
I mean that level of self-confidence of saying we
2:23
just print the money and people believe it, that's pretty crazy.
2:27
Like that's That's pretty nuts. Yeah, it's it's completely nuts.
2:31
I mean, yeah, I don't know. I don't know how to describe it.
2:34
I mean it it was also interesting, as I'm sure most
2:37
people saw, you know, we had Jay Powell say, you know, we're on
2:41
an unsustainable fiscal path and it's kind of like that's the
2:44
quiet part out loud too. Well, duh.
2:46
You know, that was my pin tweet until somebody hacked my Twitter
2:49
account. By the way, I saw a couple
2:51
questions in the in the side here.
2:53
I'm having a real hard time with Twitter.
2:54
Anybody has any suggestions on how to get a live person at
2:57
Twitter or get some attention? I'm all ears because malicious.
3:01
I was almost SIM swapped this weekend and a malicious actor
3:05
got a hold of my e-mail and then used it to jump my Twitter.
3:08
I got the e-mail back, but I can't get my Twitter back, so
3:11
just an aside. Yeah, so if anyone knows someone
3:14
at Twitter, you know hit me up over Twitter DM, you know, I'll
3:19
reach out to Larry and we can get or.
3:22
Knows how the system works or whatever.
3:23
I mean, I just get an automated reply that says you appear to
3:26
still have control of your account and I'm like, no, I
3:28
don't, The malicious actor does, you know?
3:31
Yeah, that's a that's what happened.
3:33
A lot of these platforms too, like YouTube and Google, right?
3:36
It's you're like all the support.
3:38
It's just this AI or it's someone, someone.
3:41
Yeah, I mean that's. How?
3:42
That's how Elon cut costs. He got rid of all the support
3:44
people. There's nobody there.
3:46
I've. I've spoken to Mike Alfred.
3:48
He, yeah, he put me to some guys.
3:50
I mean, I'm talking to a bunch of different people, but
3:51
nobody's really been able to solve it yet.
3:54
Got a lawyer who wants me, Wants me to.
3:56
Yeah. I've been trying to reach Mark
3:57
Moss too. I got a lawyer who wants me to
3:59
pay him 5 grand. Says it might work, but it's
4:02
crazy. So if anyone knows on YouTube
4:05
and Twitter. Yeah, Help me.
4:06
Help me. Help me.
4:07
I'm. I'm, I'm, I'm Twitter.
4:09
I'm Twitter. Locked out.
4:10
Let's let's, let's help Larry get back his Twitter.
4:13
So I actually have the video of of Jerome Powell.
4:15
Let's check it out. Oh good. the US is on an
4:18
unsustainable fiscal path. the US federal government's on an
4:20
unsustainable fiscal path, and that just means that the debt is
4:24
growing faster than the economy. I have the sense this worries
4:27
you very much over the long run. Of course it does.
4:30
You know we're effectively we're borrowing from future
4:32
generations. It's time for us to get back to
4:36
putting a priority on fiscal sustainability and and sooner is
4:40
better than later. So I mean, it did.
4:44
Is he admitting to the debt spiral, Larry?
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Close. It's pretty close.
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I mean he read my Penn tweet. You know, it's it's funny though
4:52
he, he, he says it we've got this problem, but you know,
4:55
sooner rather than later and it doesn't appear to be a problem
4:57
now. I mean maybe he's signaling a
4:59
little bit that there's a, there's a conflict between he
5:01
and Yellen, which wouldn't surprise me.
5:03
A lot of people who said that, you know, it's it's surprising.
5:07
I mean and that's part of what these people do.
5:10
They say things that are true and that make them seem credible
5:12
and like they understand what's going on.
5:14
But you know, the the next question to him, you know, if
5:17
Paley had been any good, would have been OK Well, doesn't that
5:20
represent a problem right here, right now?
5:23
And you know, of course that question didn't get asked.
5:26
And of course it does represent a problem right here right now,
5:28
which is what all of us have been screaming from the rooftops
5:31
for five years. You know, the the, the money
5:34
printer go Burr and it and it has no choice but to continue to
5:37
go Burr or the whole thing collapses.
5:40
I don't know. Maybe he was trying to send a
5:42
subtle message to Congress there or to yell and it's unclear.
5:46
You know, I don't, I don't know how all these guys, these minds
5:48
work. I mean, I they're, you know, I
5:51
don't know the church. I have a lot of regard for these
5:53
people. The Church of Fiat, so, so,
5:58
Larry, so let's, let's talk about that, right.
6:00
So you have this banker in New Zealand saying the choir part
6:03
out loud. You have Jerome Powell saying
6:06
the choir part out loud as well, right?
6:09
So you know, these are things that we've all been speculating
6:12
in the community, all been saying that these things are
6:14
happening, but now the people themselves are saying this is
6:16
happening. What is the long term play here?
6:19
What happens 510 years from now and how can individuals protect
6:23
themselves? Well, I think, I think you and I
6:25
both know the long term play. The long term play is to own
6:28
financial assets that can't be printed.
6:30
And the two one of the best the best financial assets that can't
6:34
be printed is Bitcoin and the best physical asset that can't
6:37
be printed is gold and or silver because the government can't you
6:41
know make more of them by decree you know so it's it's a mess
6:48
that's not a fax machine actually that's a that's a
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scanner fax machine is long gone.
6:53
The the you know it's it's unclear it's unclear what the
7:01
next stage is. But it's very clear with the
7:03
longer term stages and I say unclear what the next stage is
7:05
because they're very good at putting the you know putting
7:09
these back in the can. You know I'm Silicon Valley bank
7:11
blew up they they they figured it out and and put it back in
7:14
the can. They've they've got a lot of
7:16
different tools to lie to us and fool us and prevent people from
7:20
doing what they need to do and to keep them quote UN quote in
7:24
the system. And by the way they're trying to
7:25
strengthen those tools. I mean Elizabeth Warren is
7:27
trying to tell us we can't self custody and you know, etcetera
7:31
etcetera. So and yet you know if if we're
7:34
intelligent citizens what we've got to do is we've got to
7:36
realize that the government is a criminal enterprise and that you
7:39
know we need to take countermeasures and frankly
7:42
Bitcoin is the best countermeasure ever invented.
7:46
And you know as my friend Chris Iron says it's a slippery fish.
7:49
The government can't can't hang on to it.
7:51
I love that statement because it really is.
7:53
You know, if you've got your 12 words, you know, good luck.
7:57
Government, taxing it, getting a hold of it, stealing it,
8:00
whatever, debasing it. None of those things are going
8:02
to happen. And you know, it's showing up in
8:05
the price right now. I mean, this is, this is a
8:07
pleasant surprise. I mean, I thought the price
8:09
would go up this year. I I had no idea we'd get to this
8:11
level, you know, even before the halving had hit, hit.
8:14
So might have great hopes for what might happen after the
8:16
halving, right? Do you think that has to do with
8:20
the tremendous amount of inflows coming from the I'm seeing this
8:25
and it's every single day BlackRock?
8:27
It's growing, right? Yeah.
8:29
It's insane. It's crazy.
8:30
It's like every day they purchase like 5000 Bitcoin like
8:33
everyone. Was like, I'm off of Twitter
8:34
now. I don't get as much flow out of
8:36
there, but Fred Krueger has done a great job on Twitter of you
8:42
know keeping track and and it's actually accelerating.
8:45
I mean I the last thing I saw it was showing day on day ETFs are
8:49
actually buying more and more and this, this is not surprising
8:51
to us. I mean you know there's there's
8:53
a bunch of RIA money there's you know trillions somewhere between
8:56
40 and 100 trillion of RIA money that could not access Bitcoin
9:00
before. I mean they could if they were
9:01
going to buy GBTC but that was a little too esoteric for people
9:04
to do it. So.
9:05
So as a result, they what they did was they they sat on their
9:09
on their hands and now of course they can buy it.
9:12
And so they're starting to slowly but surely educate their
9:15
clients. Yeah, I love this chart.
9:17
Isn't this great? I just love it, right?
9:20
Thousands of thousands. That Black Rock hit 100.
9:23
They're about to hit 100,000 Bitcoin.
9:25
You know how long it took micro strategy to do that.
9:28
Yeah. Oh, I know, right.
9:30
Exactly. I mean, well, and and here's the
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other thing that's very interesting to me.
9:33
I mean, I saw this. I saw a great tweet the other
9:37
day that said something along the lines of, you know, the, the
9:39
ETFs, the 9 ETFs now own 1% of, you know, the total available
9:45
Bitcoin outstanding and it was 210,000, right.
9:48
And you know, gosh, I mean in in that buying of 1%, what did we
9:52
go before the ETF was not where were we 3840 ish.
9:55
I mean, you know, they bought 1% they and they shut it up, you
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know, 10 grand. I mean, that's impressive,
10:00
right? You know, So what happens and
10:04
and they're just going to keep coming, They're just going to
10:06
keep coming. So you know, and I mean the
10:08
sovereign wealth guys are going to buy it.
10:10
I went to, I went to Dubai about a week or two ago for this thing
10:14
called Satoshi's Round Table, which is interesting, although
10:17
there were a lot of shit corners there, but there are also a lot
10:19
of wealthy, Arab you know, oil related guys there and you know,
10:24
wait until these guys really figure out that this is better
10:27
than gold. I mean some of them have, but I
10:29
mean there's just so many big, big pools of money and once
10:33
they, you know, there's just not enough of this stuff to go
10:35
around. And so I'm beginning to think
10:37
Samson's maybe he's on to something here.
10:39
I mean, maybe we do go to $1,000,000 on this run.
10:42
You know, I I certainly, you know, 100,000 feels like a no
10:45
brainer, you know, and I don't know, I mean is it 234?
10:50
I mean who knows? But all I know is I'm, I'm
10:53
really glad I got the coins I've got and I'm, you know, I'm not
10:55
selling any of them, not, not right here, right right now.
10:57
And I'm not sure I'll ever sell any of them.
10:59
But you know, I I need a significantly higher price.
11:03
I mean significantly higher price, a few out of my hands.
11:06
So it's it's pretty amazing to me what's going on. 100% and I
11:10
think a lot of people feel the same way you do.
11:13
I'm not. I'm not handing over my Bitcoin
11:15
to Larry Fink and. Co There's no way.
11:17
There's absolutely no way. Yeah.
11:20
Yeah. So a couple months ago,
11:22
Lawrence, I had the privilege and honor to have you and
11:27
Caitlin Long on the show. And then we did a debate and we
11:32
had Foss and we had yourself and we had Mr. Lavish.
11:38
And essentially the debate was around the rehypothecation,
11:42
right? So that's a big theory as to why
11:45
a lot of people believe that the gold price is suppressed, right?
11:49
It's the rehypothecation aspect of it.
11:51
So, you know, we are getting a little bit of a pump.
11:54
You know, supposedly they're buying this much Bitcoin.
11:57
Is it? Is that still a concern of yours
12:00
or? It's not a big concern.
12:02
I mean, I'll, I'll give you my view on this whole, you know,
12:05
paper Bitcoin argument, OK. I mean, and I see, I see
12:08
extremists on one side. I see people who say, look, you
12:12
know, we can see it all on chain and there's absolutely no way
12:14
there can ever be paper Bitcoin. Those people are wrong there.
12:18
There are a lot of futures. There will be more futures in
12:20
the you know and derivative contracts etcetera, etcetera and
12:23
you know any contract that impacts the market price you
12:27
know or that that relates to buying and selling can impact
12:30
the market price. So, you know, so, so it's not as
12:35
simple as there won't ever be paper manipulation.
12:39
But having said that, it's a lot harder to manipulate this stuff
12:42
than it is gold. And that's because one, the
12:45
paper markets in gold are a lot bigger and a lot deeper. 2 the
12:49
GLDETF, when it came out, they were allowed to do a lot of
12:51
funny things like have counterparties and buy futures
12:54
and sell futures And you know, they could GLD for all you know
12:57
has bought gold from the future Lehman Brothers that claims they
13:00
have the gold but they don't have it.
13:01
So this So GLD became a mechanism for creating paper
13:04
gold in my opinion. I if I read the prospectus as a
13:07
couple of them anyway, not all nine on these particular ETFs.
13:12
And what I think happened is that that they're much tighter
13:15
and they, you know, so. So I think that fidelity
13:18
particularly who I trust, you know, they're going to be
13:21
audited and so they're going to have to show the coins they've
13:23
bought. They're going to have to show
13:24
those addresses. And so it's going to be harder,
13:28
you know, for people to play games here, But but to think
13:31
that they're not going to play games, I think that's naive.
13:33
I think that, you know, you look at a group like BlackRock, you
13:36
look at Wall Street and how they operate.
13:38
There's always the potential if there is a way to rehypothecate
13:42
or to create paper claims they will do it.
13:45
And you know, having said that, you know, at at the sovereign
13:49
level, I think in the gold market, one of the things that
13:51
happened is that were there was a lot of paper being created
13:54
through the Caymans and I think it was the BIS and the central
13:57
banks were actually doing it at critical points to try and hold
14:00
the gold price down because they knew that the gold price of the
14:02
Canary for monetary debasement and so but but those sovereigns
14:06
could take unlimited losses. Right.
14:08
So you know, those unlimited losses, it, it didn't matter.
14:11
They could print the difference, you know.
14:13
But but gold never went up 5X in 18 months the way Bitcoin has.
14:17
And so so this is this is going to be a much harder thing to
14:20
mess with. But I think to assume that they
14:25
cannot or will not try to mess with it is naive.
14:28
I think that Wall Street operates, you know, on a on a on
14:31
a crime on a criminal basis. And so there's a, there's always
14:35
the possibility that they will try to mess with it.
14:38
Whether they'll be successful or not is unclear.
14:40
But I think it's, I think it's clearly an issue.
14:43
I think Caitlin agrees with me on that.
14:44
I mean she thinks that there's some chance some G sib's going
14:46
to get out over there, out over the skis on this thing, messing
14:49
with it and blow up. I don't know if I'd go that far
14:52
but but I do know that that you know if you go and you look at
14:55
the futures market you know futures and derivatives market
14:58
for Bitcoin and and I'm drawing a blank on the name of the
15:01
company that keeps track of all the chain analytics.
15:03
But it's one of the really good ones They they'll show you how
15:06
it you can get their charts. They'll show you how it's
15:07
growing. The futures market is growing.
15:10
So that's an issue. So if if you could explain it
15:14
for our audience, Larry, how like what is the mechanism in
15:19
which the future market is used in order to suppress the price
15:23
of Bitcoin potentially? Well, I mean, just most simply,
15:28
it's it's, it's paper. Bitcoin is like, like, let's
15:31
just use a really easy example that we can all relate to.
15:34
We all know Sam Bankman free ran FTX.
15:37
There were FTX customers who thought they were buying
15:40
Bitcoin. They had an account at FTX with
15:42
U.S. dollars in it. And they said, OK, you know, I
15:46
want to buy a Bitcoin. Fine.
15:48
So they took, you know, whatever the money was at that time, 20
15:50
grand said buy me a Bitcoin. And Sam said, Yep, OK fine, you
15:53
got a Bitcoin in your account. Sam never went on chain and
15:56
bought the Bitcoin, so that's paper Bitcoin.
15:58
So that was legitimate dollar based demand for Bitcoin that
16:02
got made at FTX. And FTX just created an account
16:06
entry like a bank and said Oh yeah, you own a Bitcoin now.
16:09
And so all they were really doing was and of course you
16:11
know, they weren't going to screw that guy.
16:13
If Bitcoin went up and the guy sold it, they were going to give
16:14
him the gain, the dollar gain. But they didn't.
16:17
They didn't hold the underlying. You know what I mean?
16:20
They did not hold the underlying.
16:21
And that's that's paper Bitcoin. That's what I'm talking about,
16:24
where somebody, you know, the, the price ought to be set by
16:28
balancing the supply and demand, right.
16:30
And so, you know the if if somebody takes in dollars, real
16:34
dollars and says they're selling you Bitcoin but doesn't actually
16:38
have the Bitcoin they sold you, they just sold you a claim on
16:41
Bitcoin. And This is why.
16:42
Yeah, it's not your not your keys, not your cheese, right.
16:45
Then they sold you paper Bitcoin and and they've suppressed the
16:48
price because your dollars sent in should have gone, should have
16:52
been part of you know they should have had to try and
16:54
compete for an on chain coin and they didn't and and so that's
16:58
that's really how price suppression works.
17:01
Gotcha, gotcha. OK, so another thing, Larry,
17:04
that that I've noticed, right, which is and and I actually, I
17:08
ran into this problem kind of I would say by mistake by
17:12
accident. But my parents have been in
17:15
Bitcoin since 2016. When I got in, my parents came
17:17
with me, OK, the first two or three years they call it that
17:20
was a maniac. Now they're like and the Fed but
17:23
they but. All yours filled them.
17:28
The number go up, does it? Does the.
17:29
Why can I? You know, it does have an
17:31
effect, doesn't it? They're loving the corn they
17:32
bought at 5000. I know I am.
17:35
Yeah. So, so my my question to you is,
17:41
what I've noticed is if I told my mom for example, mom you know
17:46
send me a send me some Bitcoin, she'd be like I have no idea how
17:49
to do that. Why?
17:50
Because her Bitcoin is in self custody, which is what I would
17:53
recommend to my friends and family.
17:55
But what I've noticed is that I end up becoming this de facto
17:59
tech support type of guy where if anything happens and you need
18:02
to access their Bitcoin, you know call Nico right?
18:06
To try to figure it out. So you know you have a bunch of
18:09
clients. Do you recommend self custody to
18:11
them? Is that something that I?
18:13
Do I do ultimately, I mean, well, first of all, I kind of
18:16
test where they are on the technology and the understanding
18:19
scale, right. And if they're extremely low on
18:22
the technology and understanding scale and they're not and
18:24
they're not particularly worried about, you know, the government
18:29
taking over all these different companies and and grabbing, you
18:31
know, doing a 61O2, You know, I say, hey buy, you know, buy the
18:35
ETF, right. You get price exposure, yeah,
18:37
you'll have to pay tax on it, etcetera, etcetera, just to
18:40
understand the risk you're taking.
18:42
And and for, you know, for your average boomer that that may not
18:46
be such a bad way to go. I don't personally like that
18:49
way. And I explained to them the risk
18:50
is that you know in a 61O2 the, you know the government can go
18:55
and grab all those ETFs and say this is ours now or we're taxing
18:58
it at 90% or whatever. You don't really own the coins,
19:01
you own a claim to the coins delivered to you via Fidelity or
19:05
or or or BlackRock. But I I think in general,
19:08
Fidelity in particular, I trust. I don't trust BlackRock, but you
19:11
know, I trust Fidelity that you know, they are going to deliver
19:15
what they say. But there are other clients I
19:20
have who, you know, are with me in terms of full conspiracy
19:23
theory on all the stuff the government could do.
19:25
And they say, all right, yeah, I want a self custody.
19:29
I want to be able to get on an airplane and leave the country
19:31
with my coins. And so I take them through the
19:35
process of self custody. You know, in fact, this weekend
19:39
I'm going to spend some time on a zoom call with a gentleman
19:42
who's one of my clients, and I'm going to take him through how to
19:45
set up his treasure, you know, and get his words and, you know,
19:50
have him, I'll have him go through a bunch of times, you
19:51
know, send a, send a little bit of money over there, Wipe it
19:54
out, restore it, send it, wipe it out, restore it.
19:57
OK. And then I'll send him a
19:59
template for what I call the treasure map, which is the paper
20:03
he's going to write to his wife and kids that says this is what
20:07
this is our Bitcoin, this is where it is, this is what you
20:10
should do when I get hit by a bus.
20:13
You know, and then that template and that treasure map needs to
20:16
be incredibly secure as you and I both know.
20:19
So, so yeah, I I, I think that's a better solution.
20:23
But but to be fair, I mean some people don't want to go that far
20:27
and if they, you know, if they're just, I mean as opposed
20:29
to owning stocks and bonds you know buying a Bitcoin ETF, it
20:35
can, you know, can be a it's a it's a damn good step in the
20:38
right direction. Let's put it that way.
20:40
You know, it's it's not perfect, as we all know, but it's a damn
20:43
good step in the right direction.
20:45
I. Understand, I 100% agree with
20:47
you and it seems like Wall Street can't resist bitcoins
20:51
incentives, right? Right From 2017, Larry Fink
20:55
saying Bitcoin is a, you know, an index of money laundering.
20:58
Exactly. To him, like advocating for this
21:01
on legacy financial media, you're like, OK, we've done
21:04
we've. We've come along.
21:04
Hey, hey, look, 20 bips of a couple trillion dollars is a
21:08
real number. And Larry's not gonna miss that
21:10
boat, right? Exactly.
21:12
And it's stunning, you know. 100% It's stunning and it's
21:16
unbelievable, you know, like, you know, from 2016, 2016,
21:20
20/16/2017 to now, whether it's El Salvador, Michael, Michael
21:25
Saylor, Michael Strider, what they've done is just.
21:27
Unbelievable, right? Yeah.
21:28
I love, I love Sailor. I just, I watched one of those
21:31
videos this weekend. It's just so great.
21:32
I mean, he's just, he's a genius.
21:35
It's really great. 100%, so that happened, right?
21:38
So the ETF inflows have been crazy.
21:40
And then there is this very big news that came out of Canada
21:44
that I think as equally as significant.
21:47
So apparently this was a conservative all in one
21:51
portfolio and they announced that they're going to allocate
21:56
between 1 to 3% of that quote UN quote conservative portfolio
22:01
into Bitcoin. Now my question to you Larry, is
22:05
what happens when that 1% allocation outperforms the rest
22:09
of the portfolio? You know, how high are they
22:13
going to? Increase that.
22:15
That's it. And as as you and I both know, I
22:16
mean how many people have you Orange built and they started
22:19
off with one or two and then the more they learned about it, they
22:21
just kept adding. I mean you know the demand here
22:24
is just gonna be insane. It's gonna be absolutely insane.
22:29
And so I, you know, I mean I I've I've never been as bullish
22:34
as I am on on a financial asset, this financial asset, The
22:37
asymmetry is just crazy. I mean wait till we take out 68
22:41
or 69. I mean the FOMO is going to be
22:43
silly And the the thing I think people don't understand you know
22:47
it and I know it is just how little of this stuff is for
22:50
sale. I mean so it's a trillion dollar
22:51
market cap, well no not all of it's for sale.
22:54
You know I mean 70 I I saw a staff the other day, it was like
22:58
79% of it had moved within six months.
23:00
I think that's correct. I mean good Lord.
23:02
So you're so there's really a much smaller available supply
23:07
and you know as as more and more people come to it, I mean and
23:11
and and the other thing that you see in asset management is that
23:14
people, people basically chase performance.
23:17
And so this thing, I mean it was up 150% last year and once once
23:22
you see things you know outperforming everything else,
23:26
you increase your allocation sharp ratio is higher than
23:30
nearly anything else. I think it depends on what time
23:32
frame you use. But I think in general it has
23:33
one of the highest sharp ratios out there.
23:35
And so you know it's going to get to the point where it's
23:38
going to be irresponsible not to have some.
23:40
And and I think that's the other thing that's going to happen.
23:42
I mean, you know, you're going to see people talking about
23:44
people going to tell their friends how well they did in it
23:47
and you're going to get guys calling their financial advisor,
23:49
their RIA, and saying, hey, do we own any of this?
23:53
No. Well, my friend owns it.
23:54
It's doing really well. Why not?
23:56
And then the RIA is going to say, oh, shit, OK, well, I got,
23:58
I got, I don't want to say no anymore.
24:01
All right, I'll put 2% in there, you know, or I'll put 5% in
24:04
there. And then when when the, you
24:05
know, the two or the 5% double S, it becomes a bigger
24:08
percentage and people are going to say, well, how come we
24:10
didn't, how come we were so light?
24:11
How come we didn't have more? I mean you know how this thing
24:13
goes, right? You know and eventually it's
24:16
Gresham's Law, right. I mean as as we you and I as as
24:19
we know we've talked about it we we dream about the concept that
24:22
eventually you know it's it's going to be you know this is the
24:26
only thing to own at that point you've got hyper bitcoinization
24:30
and that is coming. But the issue is you know just
24:33
the time scale and that's hard to figure out, but but it's
24:36
coming. I I kind of tend to think it's
24:38
coming before 20302035. I mean it could happen really
24:42
quickly. I mean one of the things I think
24:43
is very interesting, Nico, we haven't really talked about is
24:46
how quickly things happen in this environment and how social
24:50
media has changed the rules of the game.
24:52
And let me just give you a sight, an example that I think
24:55
is particularly relevant. You know Silicon Valley Bank was
24:58
fine until it wasn't. I mean we had a, we had, we had
25:02
a virtual Internet based bank run.
25:04
They had $45 billion worth of deposits leave in one day, in
25:09
one day based on a panic started by some big Silicon Valley
25:14
venture capitalists. And so, you know, I'm not
25:18
suggesting anything like that is coming to Bitcoin overnight.
25:22
But what I am suggesting is that, you know, in the world
25:25
that we live in with social media and how news changes
25:28
quickly. I mean, you know, if Bitcoin
25:30
went through 100,000 on its way to, you know, to much higher
25:34
numbers, I mean, you know, it could happen faster than we
25:37
think is I guess the point I'm trying to make.
25:39
I mean, I I was shocked by how quickly Silicon Valley Bank
25:43
failed. I mean, you know, they sold off
25:45
some bonds. Very quickly a few people
25:47
realized that, you know, their, their, their balance sheet was a
25:51
mess. They had negative equity.
25:52
A couple of venture guys figured it out, called a few other
25:55
venture guys, they spread the word and suddenly, you know,
25:58
within three days they were bankrupt.
26:00
You know, all the deposits had fled.
26:01
It's like, holy shit. So, you know, my point is, you
26:06
know, Can you imagine the same kind of thing going on when
26:08
everyone comes to the same conclusion about the US
26:10
Treasury, you know, which, Which ultimately, as Jerome Powell
26:13
just told us, they will come to that conclusion unless we solve
26:16
the problem at some point, right.
26:19
Yeah, yeah, a hundred 100%. And and I I remember, and I'm
26:23
glad that you brought that up because that was another they
26:27
they build them out, right. And that goes to the original
26:31
quote in the genesis block of Bitcoin.
26:34
You know how many bailout? What?
26:35
What number? Of bailout Are we on?
26:38
So that was the second one. What, what number are we?
26:40
Do you know what number we're on?
26:42
I don't. I didn't.
26:42
I didn't hear the first one. What?
26:44
What? What are you talking about?
26:45
What do you mean? So on the genesis block of
26:48
Bitcoin, right it, Satoshi quoted a newspaper at the time.
26:53
Right. And the from the date and it and
26:55
the the headline of that newspaper said Chancer on the
26:59
brink of the second bailout for bank.
27:01
And this was back in 2009, right, right.
27:03
So my question to you is, what number of bailout are we on?
27:06
Yeah, right. Yeah, exactly.
27:07
Yeah. The 2nd bailout, right.
27:09
Exactly, Yeah. So, so anyways, and I do want
27:15
to, I do wanna pull up, which I think is a great kind of
27:18
visualization of this, which is the, the rates that that we're
27:24
in, right. Cuz you hear about these crazy
27:26
numbers, you hear about, you know the, you know, the the
27:29
deficit, the spending, all of that stuff.
27:33
But I think once you visualize it, I think it's a little bit
27:35
different. So I'm going to read you this
27:37
number Lawrence, and then you, you tell me what you what it
27:40
means, right. So on the very bottom it says US
27:43
unfunded liabilities. The number is currently at $212
27:48
trillion. How much money is that?
27:53
It's a lot of damn money. I mean it's it's you know it's
27:59
look the deficit this year was 2 trillion if you if you count you
28:03
know the the, the if you count what was done with the student
28:07
loan thing and and it's growing. I mean the deficit in the last
28:09
quarter was 500 billion and I think this year will probably be
28:14
2 1/2 maybe 3 trillion. It's it's out of control Nico.
28:17
It's absolutely out of control. And so and that's what the world
28:22
is coming to realize. I mean I think you know Preston
28:25
and Luke have done great jobs on Twitter showing at these these
28:28
charts of you know BTC compared to TLT or you know gold compared
28:33
to TLT or the stock market. I mean we're kind of you know
28:36
the, the thing that surprised me the most the past year is how
28:38
well the stock market's done. And I think what's going on is
28:41
we're kind of in a mini crack up boom, you know the the Fed has
28:45
the, the, I'm sorry, the Fed. The Treasury just has the pedal
28:48
to the metal on spending. I mean it is out of control in
28:52
my last quarterly report and you go to my website and get it for
28:54
free. There's a really interesting
28:56
chart in that report that shows that, you know, we were the Fed,
28:59
the US federal government was spending about $4 trillion up
29:01
until the COVID crisis. COVID crisis jacked it up to six
29:05
and then seven at its peak. OK.
29:07
It's now and so you would think, OK, the COVID crisis is now
29:10
over, right. So maybe federal spending would
29:13
trend back down towards 4, no federal spending or still six
29:16
part of that's higher interest rates.
29:18
But the point is and and they kicked the debt can into January
29:21
of next year. So there's no debt limit until
29:23
January of next year. And so you know what what Biden
29:27
and these other people are doing to the federal government in
29:29
order to try and stay in power and keep getting re elected,
29:31
they are just spending out of control.
29:33
And that's why the government that's why everything is holding
29:36
together as well as it's holding together.
29:38
You know I mean a lot of these jobs are being created or
29:40
government jobs. It's it's kind of amazing and
29:45
and so as a result you know the stock market you know in the in
29:48
the bond market it just keeps going and you know it's it's
29:52
it's amazing to me but eventually everybody's going to
29:55
figure it out and when they do they're going to come for the
29:58
safe havens and you know Bitcoin is the number one safe haven by
30:02
a country mile. You know gold is kind of the
30:04
secondary safe haven. I'm I'm kind of pissed at it.
30:06
Recently it hasn't really been doing its job.
30:08
It's it's knocking out an all time high, but it's it still
30:11
hasn't broken out. I think Bitcoin will be at an
30:14
all time high probably by Midsummer, you know, if not
30:17
sooner at the rate it's going. I mean, it's pretty amazing.
30:21
I 100% agree and you know you have the halving that's coming.
30:25
Up, Yeah. Right.
30:25
And you have the info. It's just like the perfect storm
30:29
of the ETF inflows and then the halving coming up and it creates
30:33
this environment where you're just like, holy cow, I don't
30:35
know, this is going to be crazy, but I, I do want to kind of
30:38
double back to the point that you were making earlier, which
30:41
is we were all expecting a recession.
30:44
And it it just it like I guess it, I guess it's delayed I guess
30:50
you know did they pull off a soft landing there?
30:52
Yeah, Well, yes and no. I mean it's it's, it's delayed,
30:55
it's rigged. I mean we're expecting a
30:56
recession based on the, you know, the 210, the 210 inversion
30:59
and everything else. And you know it's it's a
31:02
different economy than it used to be.
31:04
And and it's not to say we're not going to eventually get a
31:07
recession, but I think, I think that the people in power
31:10
recognize that if they were to try and clamp things down, it
31:15
would all collapse. And so they've just, they've got
31:17
their foot on the accelerator of spending.
31:19
And I mean it's it's what, you know, people are calling fiscal
31:22
dominance, which is to say that even though interest rates are
31:25
higher, it doesn't matter because we've got all these
31:28
infrastructure bills, we've got all this spending, we've got all
31:31
this defense spending. You know we're sending money to
31:33
Ukraine, which really means we're sending money to US
31:35
defense contractors etcetera, etcetera.
31:38
And so that's, that's the piece that I missed and that a lot of
31:41
us missed. I mean yes, we should have had a
31:43
recession and and by the way for the for the average person, we
31:47
kind of have had a recession. It's been, it's been rough.
31:49
They haven't lost their job, but they've, you know, they've
31:52
certainly suffered in terms of the purchasing power because you
31:56
know, they're they're, you know, the cost of everything they do
31:59
has gone up since COVID has gone up 20% and their wages haven't
32:02
kept pace. You know, So it's it's it's a
32:06
hell of a mess. It's a hell of a broken system.
32:09
And anybody who's disgusted with it the way I am and the way you
32:12
are, you know, needs to recognize that buying Bitcoin is
32:14
not only an act of financial self-defense, but it's also an
32:18
act of of financial warfare and that we got to destroy their
32:22
system for, you know, so that our kids will live in a better
32:25
country. I mean it's just absolutely
32:27
horrible but it, you know, it's the sharpest spear and we're
32:30
we're all charging up the hill, you know ready to ready to kill
32:33
the central bank. I mean that's that's kind of
32:35
what it is. Yeah.
32:37
And and and does it when we still have a lot of work to do,
32:39
Larry, as as well. Because I'm seeing, you know,
32:43
and I completely agree, you know, Bitcoin is the, the, the
32:46
death knell, so to speak, to the central bank, not only from the
32:50
fact that it's, it's a better system in itself, but it also
32:54
kind of shines a light of truth on their insanity, right.
33:00
Like when if we didn't have Bitcoin and we heard that video
33:04
coming out of New Zealand, right.
33:06
We would say, you know, this is kind of messed up Now we have a
33:09
tool, right? And that tool is like, yeah, I
33:12
hear that video. I'm like, I'm very glad I have
33:14
Bitcoin, right. Absolutely.
33:15
Like you absolutely have fun with that.
33:17
And we had a tool before, but it was kind of a broken tool
33:20
because, you know, it was hard to verify and it was in a bunch
33:23
of vaults and there was a bunch of paper around it.
33:25
I mean, look, we had this tool in the 70s.
33:28
I mean, you know, they were trying to, they, they were
33:30
inflating like crazy in the 70s and you know, Gold was calling
33:34
him out on it, right. And 'cause they, you know, they
33:37
violated the gold standard at 71.
33:39
And you know, but they managed to suppress gold and get it back
33:43
in the can and they didn't have so much debt that Volcker
33:45
couldn't make huge, positive real interest rates.
33:48
And so as a result, you know, they held everything together.
33:51
But, you know, sure enough that problem's come back to bite him
33:55
in the ass again as as we, as those of us who are sound money
33:57
advocates always knew it would. But to be fair, you know, it's
34:02
taken my entire career to watch it unfold.
34:04
I mean it's been and and and that's why some people say,
34:07
well, I I wish this stuff would happen tomorrow, you know, and
34:11
and you know, I mean, look, I've been waiting for 30 years.
34:13
So to me, if this takes another five or six, that's nothing.
34:17
I mean, I, you know, and I'm pleasantly surprised by how well
34:19
Bitcoin is doing. But, you know, look, we could
34:21
wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin could for some reason, I doubt
34:24
it very much. But for some reason it could, it
34:26
could be down. I wouldn't care.
34:28
I don't know what's going on with my dog here.
34:29
I'll try. And can you get the dog out?
34:32
Yeah. So anyway, yeah, it's it's a
34:37
good tool. Absolutely.
34:40
It's it's a tool of self-defense, but it's also a
34:42
weapon in. A way, Yeah.
34:44
No, it really is. I mean and and the thing, the
34:47
thing that's so great about it, I've said this many times.
34:49
I mean, look, I've been a gold bug forever.
34:51
I've sound money guy forever. You know, before you guys were
34:53
born. I mean, you know, and I've been
34:55
fighting this battle and and losing, to be frank, for a long
34:58
time. And it was so cool when Bitcoin
35:00
showed up and then Saif wrote the book and then your whole
35:02
generation starts quoting, you know, Von Mises to me.
35:05
I'm like, holy shit, how did this happen?
35:07
You know, the reinforcements have arrived.
35:10
You know, I got all these 20 and 30 year olds who totally fucking
35:13
get it, you know, and you guys are in the fourth turning terms.
35:16
You guys are going to be the hero generation to set it right.
35:18
So it's it's it's very for an old gold bug sound money
35:22
advocate like myself it's been very very, you know, encouraging
35:27
to see, you know this smart young generation jump on it and
35:32
get it. And you know, and and look, I
35:35
mean they they've got the power because they've got a lot of
35:37
Fiat money. They've been around a long time.
35:39
They control the levers, they control the system, but we've
35:42
got the numbers and we've got the sharper spear, so you know
35:47
we're going to win. That's all there is to it.
35:49
We are going to win 100% and Larry, it sounds like you were
35:54
vindicated, it's vindication. It feels that way a little bit.
35:57
I mean, it's, you know, I look, I'll feel a lot better when Ben
36:00
Bernanke is, you know, in the history books along with John
36:03
Law. I mean, I think he's the most
36:05
irresponsible, fraudulent central banker ever.
36:10
And you know, there's just no doubt in my mind that he
36:14
deserves to, you know, be be remembered very, very poorly.
36:19
And you know that's that's not the case yet.
36:22
But when when this thing goes full, Weimar, which it will, you
36:26
know that people are going to understand who did it to them.
36:29
And his helicopter money speech, you know, from 2002, that was
36:35
the most irresponsible thing I've ever seen any government
36:38
official do ever. And that's a that's a pretty
36:40
tall order to be the most irresponsible.
36:44
And he did it and but you know, and he he, he set it loose and
36:48
here we are, you know, but you know history is going to get it
36:51
right because we're going to write history because sailor's
36:54
probably going to be the richest guy in the world.
36:56
And I like that because sailor's basically a libertarian and, you
37:00
know, I think he'll fight hard to to create a fairer system.
37:04
100% and and we're, and we're slowly starting to see that in
37:07
in the political sphere too. Oh yeah, I I jokingly said I
37:11
said this jokingly. But in a way it was also
37:14
serious. I said guys now we have the road
37:16
map. Now we know how a libertarian
37:19
gets elected into office. All you need is 140% inflation.
37:23
And of course, I'm talking about how we're in Argentina.
37:26
That's exactly, yeah. It's a really, that's a great
37:27
comparison. That's a great comparison.
37:29
And you know, frankly, I mean, Max called it and I'm not so
37:34
sure he's wrong. I mean, I know people, including
37:36
my partner, who think that there's just no way it could
37:37
happen. Actually, there's a chance
37:39
Kennedy wins this election. I know that sounds pretty
37:43
extreme, but nobody thought Trump was going to win and I did
37:45
when he was running the first time around.
37:47
And, you know, I could see very easily where, you know, we end
37:52
up with nobody has 270 electoral votes.
37:54
It gets thrown into the House and it's kind of a brokered deal
37:57
that, you know, they, I mean, look, I basically either side is
38:01
going to contest the election. You know, the Dems aren't going
38:04
to believe the Republicans won. The Republicans are going to
38:06
win. The Dems run one.
38:07
And you know, maybe the only way to settle that difference would
38:10
be to put Kennedy in there. And you know, he ain't perfect,
38:13
but boy, he's a damn sight better than those other two.
38:15
So we'll just have to see. That's just a speculation on my
38:18
part. It's probably probably not going
38:20
to happen, but. I mean, but it it it doesn't
38:23
matter. It like it it it does matter in
38:26
the sense that like the significance of it, right?
38:29
Even if it's a low probability is there's a non zero chance
38:34
that we might have a bitcoiner in the White House.
38:37
Well, that's in 2025. That's right.
38:39
And and even if he doesn't win, I mean, here you've got a guy
38:42
who's kind of talking our language and gets it.
38:45
I mean, and he's on a, you know, they're probably not going to
38:47
let him on the debates. They haven't given him Secret
38:49
Service coverage. You know, I was talking to a guy
38:51
who was very close to him the other day and there he said he
38:53
was talking to Bobby about it and they were joking around and
38:55
said yeah, they lost. They blew it.
38:57
They blew their chance to kill me.
38:58
They had to kill me a lot a lot earlier because now if they do,
39:00
it'll be totally obvious. So you know, he's going to make
39:04
a lot of noise. And again, you know, that's
39:06
really Nico what really changes the world for all of us.
39:10
There are things that we know incredibly well and clearly and
39:13
we're right about. We just need to, we need a
39:15
quorum of the of the country to know that.
39:18
And you know, I've seen things and before they took away
39:20
Twitter from me, I've seen things that show 80% of the
39:23
country does not trust the government.
39:25
I mean that's a huge number, 80%, probably the 20% that do
39:30
work for the government, right. So I mean it's just a matter of
39:35
time, right. So now you know sadly they don't
39:39
trust the government but they don't know what they don't
39:41
understand that this is the solution yet, you know and that
39:44
that that's sad. I mean it's still a small
39:46
percentage that get that this is the solution and and we really
39:50
are very, very early here. I mean I, I was an investor in
39:54
the Internet. I mean this still, I still feel
39:56
like we're in 1995 or I mean 1997, you know 95 is when when
40:00
we went from green screen, you know, lines of code to you know
40:06
a, you know, a browser. You know the first Netscape
40:10
browser came out, but you know it really didn't get going kind
40:13
of around 2000 or so. The the the whole thing caught
40:15
on. So it it's just it's early,
40:18
we're just it's very early here in this whole thing and anybody.
40:21
I mean people are going to be like, you know, you own a whole
40:24
coin. What the hell are you talking
40:25
about? How can you possibly own a whole
40:26
coin? Well, I do.
40:28
You know what I mean? I mean the way the way I think
40:31
about people. I was, I was at this conference
40:33
and I I sat down with some guy. He was mining him on his Apple
40:36
two when he was, you know, much younger.
40:39
And he said, yeah, you know, And then I bought a bunch too.
40:41
And he said, I think my average cost was about $2.00 a coin.
40:44
And I'm just sitting there thinking, holy shit, you know, I
40:48
am. I am so jealous.
40:51
It's it's it's it's so crazy and it's it's so crazy to just kind
40:55
of look back, right, and think about a time where, you know,
40:59
20/16/2017, it's like, yeah, under $1000 Bitcoin And you
41:04
think about it now you're like, Oh my God, I wish, I wish.
41:07
Well, you know, and and by the way, Nico, I mean, when it's
41:09
when it's $1,000,000 a coin and somebody says, you mean to tell
41:12
me you were buying corn at $20,000, what the fuck?
41:16
How is that possible? I mean, our grandkids will
41:19
certainly say that, you know, I mean, it's just no doubt in my
41:22
mind. So you know, but what's the
41:25
path? Who knows?
41:26
I mean that's that's the hard part to, you know, but it
41:28
doesn't really matter, you know, it really doesn't matter.
41:31
And and as I say to all my potential investors and people
41:34
we're looking at, I just, you just can't.
41:36
I mean, I and I with my friends, I just employed them.
41:38
It's like you can't have zero. This thing is so goddamn
41:41
asymmetric that, you know, even if you just put 5 grand, I mean
41:45
figure a number you can afford to lose and put it in there,
41:47
right. And and you know, I think you'll
41:51
wake up in 20 years and be really glad you did so.
41:55
I agree. So what's your take, Larry, on
42:00
the diminishing returns narrative?
42:03
I believe this cycle we're gonna totally break that.
42:07
But if. You were to follow me?
42:09
Cuz I'm not sure I follow what you're saying when you say
42:11
diminishing returns. I've been off Twitter now for a
42:14
week. Yeah, so the the diminishing
42:18
returns theory is essentially, you know, every single price
42:22
cycle since bitcoins and since bitcoins inception has had
42:27
diminishing returns, right? You you apply the law of big
42:30
numbers, it kind of makes sense. But if we were to follow that
42:34
pattern, it would put Bitcoin at cycle peak AT70K75K80K.
42:43
I think personally, and maybe I'm overly bullish, I think the
42:46
diminishing returns theory is BS.
42:48
And the reasons I believe it's BS is because of Bitcoin's
42:51
absolute scarcity, the ETFs that are coming in and the halving
42:55
that's coming and it's gonna create this like a like the
42:59
stars aligned to completely. Also also just general tipping
43:02
point theory, I mean I think you know look at Malcolm Gladwell
43:04
what is it when you get to 10% penetrations something you you
43:07
rapidly go to 90% and I don't know where we are worldwide but
43:11
but in terms of assets and dollars I don't think we're even
43:13
close to 10%. And so you know as as a as a as
43:17
a sense of that, no I I I completely reject the
43:21
diminishing returns. One thing that was a little
43:23
interesting though I think the last peak, the double peak in
43:26
the 60s, I think that was a little lower than it should have
43:29
been and I think that might have been because of the Chinese
43:31
mining. I mean there might have been a
43:33
lot of reasons for that. But you know, one thing is it's
43:35
a wild animal. You never really know what it's
43:37
going to do and you know, I don't know, I mean is it where
43:41
does this peak? I mean one thing, the other
43:44
thing I do think will happen too is I think as we get more
43:47
institutional adoption, adoption gets more widespread, I don't
43:49
think we're going to see any more 90% draw downs.
43:51
I don't think we're going to see any more 80% draw downs.
43:54
I doubt we're going to see a 70% draw down.
43:56
We could probably see a 60% draw down.
43:58
I mean I could easily see this thing running to call it 400 K
44:02
you know on this on this round and this having and then pulling
44:06
back to what's you know, I don't know down 60% from that.
44:09
Was that 240 or something? I don't know.
44:11
I mean I you know who knows. But it it's it's hard to say I
44:17
guess that's not a full 60% drawdown 60% would be different
44:19
but you know it'd be 160. But the the point is that you
44:25
know it's it's getting more adopted and so I no diminishing
44:28
I don't accept that. I accept that you know it's I'm
44:32
with Sailor we're going higher for forever Laura and it's going
44:35
to be a lot higher and the ranges are just going to keep
44:38
changing to the upside. But but having said that you
44:42
know anybody who does enter it has to has to come in fully
44:46
aware of the volatility. I was very disappointed when in
44:49
the 60s, you know when a lot of people just say oh you know
44:51
mortgage the house go crazy, buy 100% and and they didn't take
44:54
the time to look at the prior 10 years or 13 years at the time,
44:58
whatever it was and realize it now hang on a second.
45:00
You got to be, you got to be ready to, you know, OK fine.
45:04
I mean I was average I was buying a 69, no problem.
45:06
I was buying. I was dollar cost averaging.
45:07
But but I also knew that it could go down you know and and
45:11
it did and I view that as great, you know at 15/18/20.
45:17
Yeah, I love that. You know, I mean I I bought, I
45:21
bought a lot in in thanks. Thanksgiving of 2017.
45:25
I don't know anyone was around then, but you know, I pumped it.
45:28
It went from 1017 in a relatively short period of time
45:31
and I bought a lot of 1000 too. But you know, I was 17.
45:34
I was buying like crazy because I was going to 100 and of course
45:38
I was wrong and you know, I went to 10 and I thought, all right,
45:42
well, I still believe and I got some more money and I doubled
45:44
down and then it went from 10. As you know, very briefly it
45:47
touched like 3-8 or four. I I think I paid 4-5 for it and
45:51
I doubled down again. And so, you know, my view is,
45:55
you know, there are only 21 million of these things and you
45:58
know, 8 billion people and 45,000,000 millionaires And you
46:01
know, it's I think that owning a lot of this stuff makes a shit
46:05
load of sense. And, you know, I we'll see.
46:09
I mean I could be wrong, but I don't think so.
46:13
We're not wrong. We're not wrong, I think.
46:15
So but but I could be I mean you know there there there are there
46:19
are risks I mean the the one the biggest risk I think until more
46:22
recently I always view the biggest risk as a technical risk
46:25
and I I you know maybe I'm under weighting it now but I think you
46:29
know 15 years a lot of you know the block sized wars a lot of
46:34
you know improvements in the technology and and I'm I'm quite
46:38
you know 800,000, nearly 800,000 blocks etcetera I'm I'm quite
46:41
comfortable that you know the technical risk is is quite small
46:46
at this stage. Yeah.
46:48
And then at at the big gets the you know and and the the the
46:51
type of the caliber of people that we have on our side.
46:55
You know the the the minds that we have on our side that are on
46:59
Team Bitcoin. Yeah, you know, And then what's
47:01
on the other side like team government, like I haven't, you
47:04
know? Seen someone?
47:06
I mean, Team MMT. I mean, what are you guys?
47:08
Stephanie Kelton, You know, from Stony Brook?
47:12
You or whatever the fuck she's from.
47:13
I mean, she's a fucking idiot, you know, Are you going to take
47:16
that woman who thinks that, you know, there's there's a, there's
47:19
an unlimited supply of these things, 'cause you can slice
47:21
them up, you know, like pizza. I mean, you know, it's it's it's
47:25
hard to, it's hard to deal with some of the people in Trapfi and
47:29
how they view it. And I don't know, you know, they
47:33
just make me mad. So I tried to not focus on them
47:35
as much as possible, but. I believe you could feed the
47:39
world with one pizza. Yeah, right.
47:42
Just just slices. It's an unlimited number of
47:44
slices. Therefore, there's an unlimited
47:46
amount. I mean, it's just once she
47:49
started with Samantha Leduc, right?
47:51
Once she started down that line, I just couldn't believe it.
47:53
I mean, this is a woman who's on CNBC, she's on Bloomberg.
47:57
She gets all kinds of, I mean, I was just like, I mean, lady,
48:00
could you? I mean, I was just like, you
48:02
were like, you know, galactically stupid.
48:05
I mean, you're just, I mean, it's it's very rare that I've
48:08
seen a human being that's stupid.
48:09
I mean, it was just like, I can't believe she's saying that
48:11
shit, so. Yeah it's it was it's
48:15
interesting, but it's it's it's the the it's you see you know it
48:20
it sounds like it sounds like it for us it's nonsensical right.
48:24
But that is if you believe in the Fiat system, those are the
48:29
types of things that you have to believe.
48:31
Yeah, right. Like that's right.
48:32
One comes with the other. Yeah.
48:34
So I have a question for you, Larry.
48:36
If you had an investor so high net worth individual he
48:41
approaches you says hey hey Larry, I have $1,000,000 I have
48:46
$2,000,000 what You know how what percentage would you tell
48:50
them to put into Bitcoin? How would you tell them to if
48:54
they if they wanted to get exposure to Bitcoin, how would
48:56
you tell them to approach it? Ape in all at one time DCA.
49:00
Take a percentage, put it into Bitcoin, take a percentage, put
49:03
it into gold? What would be your approach?
49:05
Yeah, OK, so I'll get to that in a second.
49:07
I just want to respond to something in the text.
49:08
Somebody said, please come back to X.
49:09
We need your commentary. Yeah, no BS point of view.
49:12
I would love to come back to XX is my.
49:15
My account got hacked at X. It's now controlled by a
49:17
malicious actor who's trying to sell crypto shit.
49:22
One of the things you could do is you could go, you could go to
49:26
X and report that and report that my account has been hacked
49:29
and that you're upset about that etcetera, etcetera, cause
49:32
anything I can do to get X to focus on restoring my account, I
49:35
would love to have done. To your question, Nico, well
49:38
look, it depends on their age, depends on the risk tolerance
49:41
etcetera. I think everybody just should
49:42
right off the bat, if they've got none, they should take 10%
49:45
of their investable assets and buy and and buy Bitcoin.
49:50
Beyond that, I think you have to determine what your risk
49:53
tolerance is, what your cash needs might be in the future,
49:56
how long your time frame is, liquidity etcetera, etcetera.
49:59
But then of course I recommend just DCA ING.
50:01
I've just to answer the question I get asked a lot because I'm
50:04
still a gold guy. I believe in gold is that you
50:10
know what's your balance, gold and Bitcoin.
50:11
And I'm half and half, I'm half gold and gold related things
50:15
mostly gold mining stocks and then I'm half Bitcoin and this
50:18
is for my investable assets. So you know and it has to, it
50:23
really has to do with just the tolerance.
50:26
Well, it has to do one with my legacy business, I can't tell
50:28
all my investors I've abandoned the thing that they've bought
50:31
into. And then two, you know, I I
50:34
like, I like having an asset that's less volatile and yet has
50:39
a has protective capabilities versus you know the monetary
50:42
printer. So, and that's that's why gold
50:44
is of value. Yeah, 100% and and I'm actually,
50:48
I'm actually a big fan of physical gold.
50:51
My father-in-law. Yeah, I I got married recently
50:54
and my father-in-law, as one of the gifts he gave me or he gave
50:59
you know my my wife like a a a gold bar, A1 oz gold bar and at
51:05
gold feels very nice as a bitcoiner.
51:07
I'm saying this, I might get chewed up, but I'm sticking to
51:09
it. It's oh.
51:10
But I mean, if you look at a gold, it feels great.
51:13
Yeah, it's real, right? Gold coins feels great.
51:15
And they're heavy. Yeah.
51:16
And they make it heavy and it feels good.
51:18
They, they have a neat ring when you when you ping them or you
51:21
drop them. Yeah, so.
51:24
So. I mean, I value, I mean, as I've
51:26
always said, the reason they have gold coins is so you can
51:28
bribe the border guards. That's.
51:32
True, the Board of Guards may not be smart enough to take, you
51:34
know, Lightning transactions. So.
51:36
Yeah, but they will. Definitely they will.
51:38
Definitely take You know you go anywhere in the world and most
51:41
people know what a gold coin is. 100 percent, 100%.
51:44
So we got about 9 minutes left or so.
51:47
Larry, I do want to be respectful of your time.
51:49
So you know, we are entering into the, you know, the the
51:53
cycles, you know, the I suspect that things are really going to
51:57
start to heat up. They already they're they're
51:59
heating up prematurely, right? To be honest with you, I did not
52:02
expect, just like you I did not expect the run up.
52:05
I have a feeling that the ETF played a lot into it.
52:08
I have a feeling that a lot of people were disappointed by the
52:11
last cycle. I think the CCP mining ban had a
52:14
lot to do with that. The fact that we then hit the
52:16
100 Ki agree level and perhaps you know, bitcoin's playing a
52:21
little bit of catch up here. So my question to you is, do you
52:25
believe this cycle's gonna be different?
52:27
Yeah, I do. I actually think, I think we're
52:29
gonna run harder and further as a result of both the halving and
52:35
and the well, the other cycle was driven by the halving, but I
52:38
think the ETS changed the game and I also think, I also think
52:41
we are at that tipping point where you know everyone, pretty
52:45
much everyone in the country has not heard about Bitcoin, OK.
52:48
I mean it's not like, I mean whereas in the last couple of
52:50
cycles in 17, nobody had heard about it and in the one before,
52:54
you know the one after that the last one, a lot of people had
52:56
heard about it and nobody had bought it.
52:58
I don't know where we are in terms of penetration, number of
53:00
people who own some of it. I still think it's probably
53:02
lower than 10%. I think we're getting close
53:04
maybe to 10% in in the Western countries and we cross that 10%.
53:09
That's the Tipping Point book by Malcolm Gladwell that says any
53:12
new adoption once it crosses 10%, it really starts to
53:15
accelerate in terms of adaptation.
53:17
And you can see that in cell phones, cars, airplanes, all of
53:19
them. And so we're kind of at the
53:22
point where I think the curve is going to get really steep.
53:25
And so you know it's going to be, it's going to be different,
53:29
it's going to be a, it's going to be a nice nice run And you
53:32
know I've seen projections for this run from everything.
53:34
I mean I think the low end of this run is 150.
53:36
I'd be shocked if we stopped there, but we could.
53:39
I think the high end is Samson's $1,000,000.
53:42
I think the more likely you know I I kind of guessing the cycle
53:46
is kind of 300 to 500 you know I I'm guessing some of the old
53:51
long time holders maybe even including myself would part with
53:54
a few coins at 500,000 a coin you know there's some Fiat
53:58
things I'd like to have that I might sell a coin or two for but
54:05
you know but I I mean 100 Nah I'm not selling in 100 screw
54:08
that shit. I mean that's that's that's you
54:10
know that's jacks for openers. I mean we're we're going well
54:13
past 100. So in my 100%, yeah, in my view,
54:16
yeah, 100. Percent the party's just.
54:18
Getting yeah we're just this is this this this party is just
54:21
getting started and and that's that's the beautiful thing.
54:25
I mean it's fun. I mean I'm I'm seeing I'm seeing
54:29
some really smart people that are pretty cool kind of starting
54:32
to get it. I just don't know if you know
54:33
this guy quote the Raven. Chris irons very good financial
54:36
commentator who I always knew he was too smart not to get it but
54:39
he was always very skeptical. I've been working on him for two
54:42
years now he has finally he's all in orange.
54:44
It's unbelievable. He's out there pounding the
54:46
table. He's on Twitter, by the way.
54:49
Quote the Raven you know. I think, oh, I know who you're
54:53
talking. Yeah, he he's a recent.
54:55
I I totally can hurt him. I take credit for that.
54:58
I take credit for that and he's got a lot of followers.
55:00
He's a very smart guy good guy good investor a big gold guy.
55:04
But was just he was skeptical but he he just I just kept
55:07
working on him so oh I'm no, I'm not going to Bedford this April.
55:12
I can't. I've got a conflict.
55:13
Sorry. I just see things questions in
55:15
the chat. No worries, no worries.
55:18
It is a live show after all. Yeah, but yeah, I feel just as
55:22
bullish as you do. I think this is the beginning of
55:25
something great. I think the ETFs, the having
55:27
coming up, you know, the total clown world and the central
55:31
banking aspect. But it's it's always an honor
55:34
and a privilege to have you. On sounds a good point.
55:36
It's always fun to be with you New Girl.
55:38
I think we're on the same wavelength and a lot of stuff,
55:40
so. I appreciate it, Larry.
55:42
Thank you so much for joining us, guys.
55:43
You can check out Larry's website, ematwo.com.
55:48
We have literally 309 people watching live right now.
55:52
So if just a 10th of you went on Twitter and helped Larry his
55:57
account, yeah, yeah, that would. Be a huge help on Twitter and
56:00
report. Send in a report and say I know
56:03
this account has been hacked and we want to be able to listen to
56:07
this guy and we can't listen to this guy because this malicious
56:10
crypto asshole has hacked his account.
56:13
Please unwind that or please do what you can to pay attention to
56:16
that. I would be deeply in your debt,
56:19
deeply in your debt. I've been trying very hard.
56:21
It's my Twitter. Twitter handle is just my name
56:23
at Lawrence Capital L Leopard Capital L Yeah, just right there
56:27
on the lower left hand corner. Yeah.
56:29
Anyone who could go on there and report that, I would.
56:31
I would greatly appreciate it. Guys, there's 312 people
56:35
watching right now. Like if just a 10th of you guys
56:38
did that. Highly appreciate it.
56:40
I don't. Know if it'll have any impact.
56:41
I mean, like I said, Twitter is Twitter's a shell of its formal
56:44
self. There's nobody working there
56:45
anymore. Crazy.
56:47
It's just run by. It's just run by AI.
56:49
But yes, we need more voices. We need voices like like Larry
56:53
on Twitter because you know, he adds so much signal, great
56:57
perspective. So let's, you know, this is part
57:00
of the fight, guys. Let's let's help get Larry's
57:02
account back. But like I said, Larry, thank
57:05
you. So much for joining me on the
57:06
show. Come back anytime.
57:07
Thanks everybody who listened. I appreciate it.
57:10
Really, really appreciate. It some value to the whole
57:11
thing, so. You always add value, Larry.
57:14
Really, really appreciate. It all right, guys.
57:16
We'll see you. We'll see.
57:17
You. Bye, Larry.
57:18
Take care. All right, guys.
57:20
I'll see you tomorrow for a brand new episode of Simply
57:23
Bitcoin Live. I hope you guys enjoyed the
57:25
show, Peter. Peace out, everybody.