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Felix Prehn - What EVERY Investor Needs to Do with Their Money ASAP + Stock Market News 16 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and Goldman Sachs, the most important investment bank out there on Wall Street well, at least according to Goldman Sachs has just warned that well, things are going to go a lot higher.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: That's a nice warning, isn't it?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: And why they're basing that on?
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: They call it the next Trump trade, the Trump 2.0 or 3.0, wherever we are right now, my voice is slightly hoarse from all the fun yesterday, so apologies for that.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Hope you can still hear me if I'm can, and I want to explain that to you.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: There are three key things to look at.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I also want to look at a couple of stocks and indicators that you're going to want to be watching as this market goes higher, because if those indicators flip well, it's a very good early warning sign that things are going to slow down a little bit and it might just help you take profits a little earlier or move your stops a little bit better into place.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: And, above all, follow the rules and follow the rules and follow the rules and follow the rules.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: The rules are the things that the Wall Street investors and the Wall Street traders have been taught for decades.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Literally, around about the mid-70s, some smart people in Chicago which is generally where most smart people sit who are trading and investing, came up with frameworks that allowed them to massively beat the value investors, and they've been doing that for the last 50 years.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Wall Street's still doing it with you and me, the retail investor, because, well, I think they enjoy their fees and their yachts and their third houses and their fifth mistresses or whatever it is so they get up to, and I thought when I started this community, it must be, would be so cool if everybody knew this and everybody would actually be financially free and everybody would enjoy their life and wouldn't sit in a freaking cubicle and waste their life away doing something really frustrating.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So that's what the mission is here, and how do you learn it?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: You go to phoenixfrenzorg, get free and you get yourself access to it.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: It's completely free, it'll take you 15 minutes and if you ask the people who've already watched it, well, life's up getting changed, being changed every single day.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into higgledy-piggledy today, but I think you can see it.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: The green line is Trump 2018, trump 1.0.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: And initially, when he came into power, can I draw on this?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Yay, well, let's do a green pen.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, I can actually draw on this.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Amazing, the market tanked and then there was some sort of deal between the US and China made, which wasn't fully complied with, but it was a deal nevertheless.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Market rallied and then we had a pretty, pretty decent time, and what happened this time is that he came in a lot stronger, with a lot harsher tariffs, and we've got Liberation Day down here, and then China said the same things they said in 2018.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Tariff pause kicks in China.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Well, they call it a deal, I call it a pause.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's an important distinction.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So we're making our way back up and there's therefore an arguable scenario here where we go up another 10% or so on that, provided they do actually come to a real deal in tariffs, and this is from the lovely folks at Goldman Sachs.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Now the second part of the story is that earnings revisions and this might be a little dark for you, but I hope you can see it, I'll explain it to you in a sec is, in the long run, what drives the market is still profitability and anything that goes contrary to what I said at the beginning.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: No, the market and the chart will reflect everybody else's expectations of profitability and therefore you don't actually need to read the profit numbers if you know how to read the chart.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a shortcut.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: And sorry about all the police sirens If you can hear that one billion Hollywood celebs are being ferried about and apparently they need sirens to know that they're important.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So that's probably, you know, johnny Depp or someone like that going.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I'm very important.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I've got sirens.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he's a lovely man.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So what have we got here?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: We've got, for the first time in I don't know how many bars, that is, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know A lot of months, anyway, more than a year.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: We've got optimism.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Oh, here it says six months of negative readings.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Just read the chart, felix.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: We actually have optimism.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So people are expecting earnings, that's profits, to improve, which means the market should go higher.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Now I say should?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't move in a straight line, but it's definitely a very, very positive sign.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: And that's from the nasty lot at Bloomberg.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I've cancelled my bloomberg subscription.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I was so tired of all that political spouting that they put out.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: But a lot of this is going to be underpinned by ai and techspin and people who thought that we're gonna.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: We've got all the chips we need now I think.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I think we're good with chat, gpt 4.0, whatever it is right now.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think we need 5.0.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: We're not going to need any other chips.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: No, no, no one needs to adopt ai really.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: So we're good, we're going to stop spending on chips, and that was a little bit the vibe a couple of weeks ago.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: But if you look at this here, the blue box is the amount of money that the united states states is expected to spend on generative ai, and I think it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that things are going up significantly.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So they're going to spend not just some of last year, they're going to spend more next year and then more again the year after.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So who's this good for?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Well, the chip space.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So, first and foremost, nvidia, and there are also rumors around a huge middle east deal around nvidia.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: They're just waiting for us government clearance on that one and again, there'sa multi-year deals and once you supply all the chips, well, a, there's maintenance, there's replacement, there is software, recurring revenue.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But then also, well, you're going to come up with a new chip in two years which will make the old chip look like a, like a, like a.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what 1923, ford or something which might be beautiful but won't get you very far.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So they're going to replace those.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of like almost like a lifetime income.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: It's amazing and that's going to keep this party going for quite some time.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: But there's always a but, isn't there?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Why is there always a but?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Felix, I don't know.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: There were some very large ones at breakfast this morning tucking into the pancakes.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: And this is the SPY right.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So we have this beautiful, beautiful S&P ETF.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Sometimes people ask me why do you look at SPY and not at VU or something?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Spy is the most liquid thing.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: It's what the traders use.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Vu is more for investors.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: There are obviously a bunch of other ones.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: If you're buying the index, just don't buy spy.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: The fees are too high.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Buy whatever's got the lowest etf fee, and if you don't know what the lowest etf fee is, ask, ask grok or something, ask one of the ai.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So that's what they're there for.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: So we've got a really beautiful setup here.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: We um moved above the 50 day moving average line here.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: We hit above the 150 day moving average line here four days ago.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: It looks like, at least as I'm recording this.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Today is starting green doesn't mean it will end green, but yesterday was a nice, big, beautiful, shiny candle, and then some people are saying well, but what about?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Are we getting overboard now, felix?
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Are we getting a little overboard now?
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Should we therefore not worry, felix?
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: And there's a little bit of truth in that.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So this down here is the RSI and again I'm turning this on in Trade Vision, which is the charting and sort of info and data app that we build and continue to build.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: There's a mobile app for that as well, and there's a free trial to it, so check it out.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So yeah, so we just draw a line across from here.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: You can sort of see when we get to these tops like these ones here, then you go up.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That tends to correlate with the tops of that particular market move.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: If you have a little bit of a longer time horizon, I think it matters not that much.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that useful an indicator, to be honest.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: It's just something that's so simple that mainstream media understands and never like to talk about it.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: It's overboard, it's oversold.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Is it really that useful?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: No, usually not, because stuff can be overboard for very long periods and stuff can be oversold for very long periods if there's a good reason for it.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't give it too much attention.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're not going to go up in a straight line.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I think that's always something to bear in mind.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So if this thing goes down a percent or something, I wouldn't worry about it.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I would.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I would look for this thing.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I would look that we are above the 150 day moving average line.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Just stay above that.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: You're above that.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Uh, life's pretty good, life's pretty sweet.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Where's the 200?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit lower.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So yeah, watch out for the 150.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: That's what I would watch out for.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: On the spy on the nasdaq, a similar setup.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Um, we also did a beautiful gap up here, a beautiful candle.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: The next day afterwards, three more beautiful candles after.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: That volume is pretty decent.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: It's picking up.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: This also looks good.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: And yeah, again, if you look at the rsi, we look overboard.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: But um, and last time we were, that overboard was approximately here and that was kind of the top there.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean much.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I mean it just doesn't Zoom out a little bit.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Look at the rallies over here.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: We were even higher.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: We were like how much higher?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Like 10 points higher on the RSI, and that was a little top there.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: And then we went even higher than that.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: And then that crash down was not predicted by the rsi.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: No, that just had a lot to do with the japanese.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I blame the japanese for that.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: So the markets are actually looking pretty good.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Um, now we're therefore going to continuing, continue to nibble cautiously on good stocks and move stops higher, which is a wonderful thing to do.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: And the key thing I'd also look out for and this is probably indicator number two really is just the VIX.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Watch the VIX.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: You want us to keep falling gently and sort of hover around that 10 to 15, 17 level.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: That would be ideal.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: At the moment we're at 17.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Probably under Trump, we're going to see slightly higher levels than usual.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So maybe 15 is the new 10.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: And that's good.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So nothing wrong with that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Just sort of make sure it doesn't spike significantly above 20.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: That's an early warning sign for us.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the semiconductors, which I think is something that we're now really bullish on, and I appreciate conductors, which I think is something that we're now really bullish on, and, um, I appreciate some of you like, but, felix, you were against it.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I bought the tip.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad you got lucky.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: That's what I'd say on that.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: And look, it's great to get lucky like it's.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: It's wonderful to get lucky.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I get lucky, um, quite a lot with stock picks and and, and that's marvelous.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: But the reason I make money is because I actually have a system and there's actually rules to it and and it's just like I make small losses and I make large gains and and that's by having a rule book and having a system and having that written out in front of you, you actually become consistent and you can sleep well at night and you can enjoy your life, rather than making these sort of by the dip punts, which is just if you just think it through.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: It's just like I'm just hoping that it's going to go back up, but I don't really know when or why or why I'm buying this now.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: I just feel like I should, um, and that isn't really good enough because that would get you fired on wall street.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: We get you arrested actually.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So don't do that, uh, and instead actually follow rules on on when you buy.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it means we don't buy the bottom of the market.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: We don't.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: We don't sell the top of the market either.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: We do something in between and it actually is very profitable, at least in my experience.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So you might want to try it out, learn it, put it in a paper trading account, just play with it for a little bit couple of weeks, uh, and see how it goes for you.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And, as I say, rules are at felixfrenzorg, get free.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this looks wonderful.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: This looks absolutely freaking wonderful.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Now, warning earnings are coming up on may 28th, so something to look forward to.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: There'll be a little bit trade restrictions on export restrictions, so there might be a little bit of that in there, but hopefully they're going to give us a very positive bullish forecast with all the deals in the Middle East and so on, that that will overshadow the sort of China-related news.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: And here is a chart.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That is just a beautiful thing and this is something that we bought at 8.50.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It triggered for me at 8.50, at least.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I wanted to buy it a little bit lower 8.50.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: It triggered for me at 8.50 at least.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I wanted to buy it a little bit lower 8.25 or something.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: But it triggered a little higher and that's okay.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: And it's just been going stronger and stronger and stronger.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Now would I buy it at this level?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: No, it's a little late.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: So you're like well, why are you showing me this, felix?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: This is frustrating Because I want to show you setting up automated buy orders like literally boring things.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: We're up 100% on this in eight trading days, so just under two weeks, and it's those kind of wins that make us very profitable.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: And it's those kind of wins that mean we probably had a dozen stocks that got knocked out a couple of percent down, and that sort of thing, and that's okay, and because this makes up for it generously.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: And I also doubled down on this um after day two or three because it just looked so profitable.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Um, and it continues to, and it's just such a nice setup.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So, um, what do we watch out for here?
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: We watch out for big volume.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So, basically, you want these breakouts to happen again.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Watch the master class, you'll recognize that pattern I'm drawing in.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: You get the breakout, you get a massive volume, volume continues, volume continues to go up, in fact.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And what's that telling you the volume?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: It breakout.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: You get a massive volume, volume continues, volume continues to go up, in fact.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: And what's that telling you the volume?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: It's telling you that institutions are jumping on board.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: It's telling you that the hedge funds are buying it.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It's telling you that big money is buying it.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: And that's, of course, marvelous because that could drive this higher and higher and higher.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: And how high can it go?
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Well, how long is a piece of string?
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Really?
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: There is no real like rule to how high a stock can go.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Looking at history can be a little bit of an indicator.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: So we were trading at 88 at one point, which is five, six times higher than we are right now.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's going to go that high, I don't know.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I've got a stop loss set up on it and that will take my profits, uh, when the time is ripe, and uh, and it'll be a beautiful thing.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So I hope that inspires you a little bit.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: And, um, I am traveling again, once again today, so we're not live here, but I just wanted to ping out a couple of things to you that I think are really, really important.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: And just watch for those key levels.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: And you don't need me to go through every stock every single day, because you can learn the levels yourself.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Look at Palantir here, above all the moving average lines, we had a beautiful little run up there to the top.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Yesterday's sell-off.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: What do you notice about yesterday's sell-off?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It was a little sell-off, um, and volume was pretty low on it.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Is it a good or a bad thing?
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: If a lot of people are and a few people are selling, it's probably a good thing, right?
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Because they're not.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Nobody was running for the exits, so that's a good thing, and you can do the same with any other stock that you're looking at.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Just just look at, look at the chart.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: The chart tells you what everybody is thinking about the stock, but everybody knows about the stock and there are a lot of smart people on wall street and therefore you actually don't need to do that much read much from your reader.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: You don't need to like dig into all these documents forever.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: You just need to like look at what does everybody else know?
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: And that's usually, that's usually our edge.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Uh, because every successful investor and trader out there looks at the same thing.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, really.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: So, um, tesla here looks pretty good.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Um, tiny little dip there yesterday, but at least pre-market we're up again, so I wouldn't worry about that too much.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The only thing I'd like to see from from tesla really is like I'd like to see a bit of a volume breakout as we're going higher.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: We we're not seeing that, so there isn't really like this real steamroller thing behind Tesla yet, which would be institutional money pouring in.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: So that's obviously a cautious thing.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: And then we got all the news out on what all the whales are buying.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: You know the Michael Burrys and the Ray Dalios and so on, and I'll probably do a summary of that because I think it's interesting.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: But remember that they file at the end of the quarter what they did last quarter.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So you are now getting to see what they did sometime between January and the end of March and you're getting to see that in the middle of May.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: So how useful is that really?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: That's six weeks old, right?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: So if you're whinging about me showing your trade that's two or three days old on YouTube, like, the six weeks old thing is a little bit late.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: So I think it's interesting to look at it because obviously they are the big money.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But I also would not.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever really acted on that because I always just think, well, I don't even know if they own it now.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: So, because they could have sold it by now, right, and they wouldn't have had to tell us, wouldn't have to tell us until the end of, like, middle of July or something like that.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: So I hope you got some value out of this.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I continue to be short term pretty bullish, but, as always, cautiously so.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: There's still a lot of stuff that needs to get sorted out.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Taxes, regulation, all the tariff deals need to be done.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: A lot of positive rumors around that, but we do need to actually see them materialize to get properly bullish.