Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | June 8, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | June 8, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
All system's going clear, the lifting, what's going on? Everybody happy Friday,
0:39
Hope everybody excited for the weekend. I'm sure excited. There's a lot
0:43
of sports going on this week in Big Maley of course, MMA fourteen fights.
0:47
Only one wait, miss I saw and that was by I believe half
0:51
a pound. That was EDWARDA Mora. So I'm expecting all fourteen fights to
0:56
go live. Fans, I mean, man, I always like seeing out
1:00
of the apex. Gimme fans, gimme cheering is a bigger cage, great
1:03
DFS card. I think NBA Playoffs, NBA Finals Game two Sunday, NHL,
1:08
I think game one is Saturday. MLB of course going on big boy
1:12
prize pools, NASCAR Sunday. No better time. Headover to shipingnation dot com
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Weekly package. Hey, I think it is a good time if you do
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want to try weekly. You don't want to pay the sixty nine dollars a
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month or more for the other packages. Of course you don't get the discord.
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But all those sports, so many big prize pools this week now is
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piece of the product. Monthly, six month, annual packages, heado RESHIPI
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com. Bestball season is about here. Contest fifteen dollars, one hundred and
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Underdog, unlike DraftKings, cumulitive scoring. Big Marley and I did a lot
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ship. It very excited for best ball season. Big Marley and I will
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be talking early next month. I think I still haven't drafted anything yet.
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We'll be diving in pretty shortly. But enjoying life right now. Just want
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more coach speak, et cetera, and I'll be in the streets hard.
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We will have you covered at Shiftingnation. We had a go collect take it
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down last year, that three dollars tournament. He came in first place for
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thirty K. So get in there. We're gonna have some good rankings soon.
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I'm already balls deep in these drafts, so I'm ready to go whenever.
3:00
I love it, I love it. Let's talk some mma though,
3:02
Big Marley again, appreciate all sixteen of you watching live right now. Many
3:06
watch on playback. We appreciate you guys as well. Like Bun subscribe but
3:10
helps us out a ton little next in here, Ben, Joanne, Philly
3:15
Phantom. But you say three points off major takedowns last week, great slate
3:19
plan, ready to get it this. We appreciate that, Philly Phantom.
3:22
Let's get it this week. Fourteen fights, Big Marley, Mike Quake,
3:24
Broad Slate Overview. I mean, I think it's a great DFS card.
3:29
You can leave salary only two favorites over minus three hundred, and I think
3:32
you can fade the main events. It's slightly favored to go the distance.
3:37
Two primary strikers. Fun DFS card that you have plenty of combinations to work
3:42
with. You should have less dupes on average. Wouldn't be surprised to see
3:45
a solo shipper. That is music to my ears. So just because last
3:49
week was a pay per view and we said it like, I'm like,
3:52
I don't really like this card that much outside a couple of fights, this
3:54
is a way better DFS card than last week's pay per view than many pay
3:58
per views we get. So I'm excited for broad slid overviews before we go
4:01
fight by fight. Yeah, great DFS card. Tough one, but fourteen
4:06
fights is always good. Should be less ties as it is. I think
4:10
we can also leave salar around the table, get a little bit more different.
4:13
But I'm gonna like the last half of the fights we talk about a
4:15
lot more than the first half, So I might be fading a few of
4:17
these fights or fighters and then getting into it a little bit down the road,
4:21
but should be a good one. Hopefully we do get a solo shipper.
4:25
Yeah no, I agree with you as well on the last or the
4:28
one of the notes that I have more interest in the later fights. I
4:30
think that is on average, all the stuff will be up on the site
4:33
shortly after the show. Projections, ownership, slate plan, fight rankings,
4:38
co report, etc. We got you covered at shippenation dot com. First
4:43
fight of the Night Ladies Division, Edward A. Mora taking on Oh wait,
4:46
hold on, I'm so happy. I said that though, because I'm
4:49
on the slate plan hold on, there we go. I forgot to unhide
4:54
these two rows. There we go. Ryan dos Santos aka Amanda Kings has
5:00
Dosantos. Some people have Amanda. They are the same person. Starts off
5:04
the card as a pretty big favorite taking on Poojia tomorrow Amanda slash So Santos
5:10
minus three thirty one on the money line tomorrow plus two seventy one this fight
5:15
plus one oh five to finish, so pretty good finishing odds for this division
5:20
if you don't expect too many strawweights. Plus one oh five to finish,
5:25
So there catches my attention. Finishing odds plus one thirty five for Amanda very
5:30
good Tomorrow plus six seventy five. I'll throw it to you right away,
5:33
Big Marley. Pretty interested in the favor here. Looks like a clash of
5:38
styles at first look as well, with Amanda the wrestler tomorrow or Tomar the
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striker. How do you see it? Yeah, I definitely look at it
5:46
as a striker versus grappler matchup where Tomar has to keep the fight standing.
5:49
But I don't even know that she's the better striker of the two. I
5:53
feel like Dos Santos could win a striking match. She said ninety one hundred
5:57
dollars. That's gonna kill us. So we need her to go out there
5:59
and grap But Tomar just doesn't have a ground game, so it would be
6:01
smart of Amanda do to do that. And I think she is live for
6:04
the submission here. Looking at the decision props, so like plus two to
6:10
twenty five to win on decision at bet Online, and they have her at
6:15
plus one thirty five inside the distance. But DraftKings has Amanda to win by
6:19
decision at plus one twenty So that's what I was looking at, and that
6:25
makes me like it a lot less because I don't think she's gonna score great
6:28
in a decision. But I'm picking her to get a submission, so I
6:30
do like her a little bit. I don't think she'll be too highly owned,
6:33
so she's gonna be my preferred play. If I get any leverage,
6:36
it would be on her. But I think I'm just gonna x out tillmar
6:41
because even if she wins, it could be less than ten X And there's
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a lot of underdogs on this card that have hundred point upside, so I
6:46
would rather target those higher ceilings. And she is one of three or four
6:50
people I plan on xing out on this card. Yeah, I like it.
6:55
I'm on the Amanda Slash Dosanto side as well. I mean the pass
7:00
like that she can get there in a decision, Like if she does wrestle,
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there's three four takedowns, ten minutes of control time from ground and pound.
7:09
Obviously Tomorrow would have to stay alive. Yeah, I mean for sure.
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The nine K range, I'll say too, like this is such a
7:15
good card. Ownership is gonna be spread out. We don't have anybody above
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fifty percent right now, and outside of the main event, we only have
7:23
one fighter above forty percent. Like this nine K range is definitely gonna be
7:27
spread out. I like Amanda. I think pants will be similar owned rosas
7:31
we have higher own Bruno Ferrera, higher own Katona pretty similar. Amanda's got
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as much upside as anybody, so I definitely will have some And some people
7:41
like if they only play five lineups in the big fifteen dollars whatever it is.
7:46
I've heard multiple people or throughout the years say like, I'm scared to
7:49
play the first fight. I don't want my night to be over right away.
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Maybe there's some theret that Dosantos is a little lower owned than expected.
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I like the upside Tomorrow the only reason for her we have her as a
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second low zoned fighter on the card. You get ten percent of her you're
8:05
overweight. I don't like it. I think dogs come through that have more
8:09
upside. So I was gonna camper like ten percent debating Fader underweight right now.
8:13
I had her underweight, and maybe that changes as we go throughout,
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because you probably will have some fighters in your pool that I don't, So
8:20
maybe I'll switch to that because at the end of the day, I don't
8:22
like Tomorrow. And man, the last thing to note on this fight,
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this fight open minus one eighty for Dosantos plus one fifty five for tomorrow.
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Now it's all the way minus three thirty plus two to seventy one. Money
8:33
hasn't stopped pouring in on the NANDAS side, so I like that side as
8:39
well. We'll keep it moving. Next fight on the card one of my
8:41
least favorite fights for DFS. I guess there should be an okay, real
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life fight. Two solid fighters Taylor Lapolis Cody Staman minus two seventy nine.
8:50
Lapliss plus two thirty nine is Stamens plus two to fifty to finish Lapless plus
8:54
three to twenty statement plus seven hundred. This is a fade for me with
9:00
any lineups and less hold on question. Okay, I thought someone said a
9:03
fight was off. I'll get to your your questions after this fight. Phil
9:09
easy for me. Laplos, no way. I'm playing plus three twenty inside
9:11
the distance of eighty nine hundred. Stamen, known as the primary wrestler,
9:16
has slowed down as wrestling a little as of late. I think he probably
9:18
tries Lapolos good takedown defense. I think for Reed's probably a better wrestler Laplos
9:24
when he was taken down and got back up. I think we see a
9:26
boring decision that does not score well X out both sides. If I to
9:31
pick a side, I would go Staman because he's seventy three hundred. I
9:35
still don't like Staman, though, so I'm out on this one. Yeah,
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I'm definitely gonna x out Laplis just because he's going to be a pure
9:43
striker. Maybe he could mix in takedowns and other matchups. I just don't
9:48
see him taking down Stayman, and if he doesn't get a first round knockout,
9:52
I just don't see how he makes it on the optimal lineup, and
9:54
he'd be like plus money to score over ten x really in this fight.
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So I'm gonna x him out. Hope it does stay standing. Even if
10:01
he wins, I don't think it matters too much. But I'm gonna keep
10:05
staying in my pool just because he is a wrestler. I think he can
10:09
come, keep it a little bit close on the feet, but then steal
10:11
rounds with wrestling. I just don't trust him enough to land those takedowns or
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even look for those takedowns enough. So I'm picking Lapolis to win, which
10:20
makes me like Stayming a little bit less, but I'll keep him in the
10:22
pool, maybe get ten to fifteen percent of them as a contrarian play on
10:26
this fourteen fight card. But just like the other underdog, there's a lot
10:31
of one hundred point upside underdogs on this card, which I would rather have
10:35
them, So that might just limit my Statement exposure, But I'm not gonna
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ximount. Yeah, to be honest, I might after the show switch like
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Tomar to fade and Stament on your weight, Like I'm going back and forth.
10:48
Like Statement has the wrestling upside. I think he's a solid fighter,
10:52
but I've seen so many big woman's favorites lose all the time, which was
10:54
the reason I kept Tomorrow in the pool. It's like Tosntos really might just
10:58
be so overrated. Low level Women's MMA is like damn near flip a coin
11:03
at this point. But yeah, I think Stamen does have more upside than
11:07
Tomorrow. Regardless, I don't like either. A lot better underdogs that we'll
11:11
get to, Like this next one, we're about to talk about Eduardo Mora
11:13
Denise Gomes. Denise Gomes minus two hundred Mora plus one seventy is Gomes this
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fight minus one fifty five to finish. Mora plus one seventy Gomes plus two
11:26
to twenty five. I mean man, So to note right away, this
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line open to pick up minus one fifteen to pop. Mora got all the
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way down to like minus two twenty and then Gomes got money back. Mora
11:37
has taken money throughout the week, so again minus one fifteen now say at
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minus two hundred for Mora. This fight to finish open at minus one ten.
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Now it's minus one fifty five, So that's good to see. It's
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a really good fight to target because hey, again, you don't see these
11:54
finishing odds in this division very often clashes styles. Mora wants to fight on
11:58
the match. Gomes wants to fight on the feet. Gomes known for a
12:03
huge upset over Yuegi. I was at great fighter, knocked her on a
12:07
little over twenty seconds more coming off what like one hundred and twenty eight DK
12:11
points or something absolutely dominated Monstra Ruiz on the mat minus two hundred right now
12:18
plus one seventy inside the distance for a primary wrestler, it looks really good,
12:22
So I'll definitely have a lot of more Gomes. She's live for a
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knockout. She can keep it on the feet. I prefer the Morris side
12:28
though, but I'll have some Gomes as the dog as well. Actually,
12:31
And then I want to say one quick thing. If I had to pick
12:33
a fight to stack, it would be the main event, even while I've
12:37
canon near. But I definitely don't like it this week nearly like last week
12:41
with two more fights on the cart and a lot more live underdogs, but
12:45
it would be the main event for me. Agreed, Yeah, I agreed
12:48
on both sides. Early. I prefer More in this fight, but it
12:52
is a good one to target, and Gomes has broken two slates as a
12:56
heavy underdog before, and it wouldn't completely shock me to see her do it
12:58
again because More is so unproven and her one UFC win was against one of
13:03
the worst fighters in the whole UFC, so I just don't take a whole
13:07
lot of that into account. But in all of her fights, she is
13:11
looking to go out and aggressively wrestle early, and that's what she's gonna have
13:13
to do in this matchup, where Games should be the better striker, much
13:16
more dangerous striker too. More also looks like she's on some really good supplements,
13:20
so I think she's got the strength to hold games down. She could
13:24
get ten plus minutes of control time here five plus takedowns, so I like
13:28
more quite a bit, and I'm guessing I'll be overweight to her. But
13:33
on the game side, I do want some of her as some hedge exposure,
13:35
and I'm not against going overweight to that side either, just in case
13:39
she does go out there and get a first round knockout. I don't want
13:41
my night to be over three fights into this fourteen fight card, so good
13:46
fight to target. I think I have it as like a four star,
13:48
but that's because there's so many fights on this card and a few that I
13:52
like more. But maybe on a different card, this would have been a
13:54
five star for me. So I like it quite a bit, but give
13:56
me more of it. Yeah, I love this fight. I think both
13:58
sides four hundred any gomes win can get there, and Moore has one hundred
14:03
and thirty point upside in this fight, so I love it as well.
14:07
My favorite fart b far Wow, my favorite fight by far early far fight
14:13
all that. Yeah, my brain's sticking ahead of my mouth, but that's
14:16
a great fight. I will say after this one, this is what I
14:18
think Big Marley and I are in similar pages where gets pretty boring, and
14:22
I'll be hoping for some low scoring fights in these next three. John Cassaneda,
14:28
Daniel Marcos A two hundred Castaneda a K Marcos. We have the rare.
14:33
I guess it's not even as rare as it has as it feels like
14:35
I say it. Marcos is price cheaper at AK, but he's a minus
14:41
one nineteen favorite, where Cassanada is any two hundred price higher as a small
14:45
dog at minus one oh one. This fight, Cassanda opened a dog plus
14:50
one oh four, stayed a dog for a little bit, got bought to
14:54
a favorite for a little while, and then Marcos has got some money on
14:58
the way back. Fight is one of the more likely to go to the
15:01
distance on the card plus one eighty to finish. Both guys similar finishing odds
15:05
plus three fifty Marcos plus three sixty five Castaneda. I just it's not a
15:11
fight that I want, like looking at this mid tier range, I much
15:15
prefer we'll get to Zach Reek Zach Reese Marquez. That fight's an absolute banger.
15:20
I like the Thiago Moyces Client fight. We'll get to a little more.
15:24
I think this fight mainly stays on the feet. I actually like the
15:26
Cassaneda side more if I have to pick, because he has more wrestling upside,
15:31
higher priced, and the dog. So I'm gonna look at our ownership
15:35
quick actually in this one, Casaneda seventeen Marcos twenty, which is about what
15:39
I expected, pretty close, both relatively low owned. I want to be
15:43
underweight on the thirty seven percent combined ownership. I think if I to pick
15:48
a side Castaneda, I'll just make sure I don't have a ton though.
15:52
But I think it goes to decision and mainly stays on the feet. What
15:54
about you, Yeah, I think it's a close fight standing. I probably
15:58
give Marcos the overall by edge, maybe a little bit more dangerous and durable.
16:03
But Castaneda can win this fight in a striking match, and he can
16:07
maybe not dominate, but he can win all three rounds if he wants to
16:10
go out there and wrestle, and he has the higher ceiling as well.
16:12
He's never scored less than ten x this eighty two hundred dollars price tag,
16:17
whereas Marcos has scored I mean he's won and scored fifty five points before Castaneda's
16:22
got to fifty five points in the second round loss. Yeah, I had
16:26
him losing that fight too. But I prefer Cassaneda here, especially if he's
16:30
gonna be lower on because of the betting lines, him being more expensive but
16:33
having a plus next to his name, and I think if he wins,
16:36
he's got a good chance to score in more than ten x, where Marcos
16:40
could score sixty five seventy points and it just doesn't even matter if he wins.
16:42
So I don't know that I'm gonna x Marcos out, but I'm close
16:48
close to it anyways. And then Castaneda, I could see me being overweight
16:52
to him. I just I don't have a strong lean about him winning the
16:55
fight, so maybe I just look to other people I feel more confident in.
16:57
But I am going to get some Castonnade exposure, and I'd be fine
17:00
with him in a single entry too. Yeah, yeah, I guess if
17:04
I was really chalking a single entry, I think i'd probably be fine with
17:07
Cassanta too. In general, the most handbills I'll probably I will be trying
17:12
to avoid that fight though, just a low own fight to mixing chalk your
17:15
lineups. But fourteen fights, I think it more than likely busting is not
17:19
on the optimal Appreciate that, Terry go collect Hey, go back to the
17:25
beginning of the show. If you just tuned in, Big Marley gave you
17:27
a shout out to three dollars thirty k champ On Drafters last year, SIGGI,
17:33
what's going on? Michael Peter said, what's going on? David?
17:36
Hope you're doing well as well. Big Driggs forgot to say, I had
17:38
a lot of people. Sorry about that, folks, Joanne. I think
17:41
I might as actually I might have said hi to you, Hope. Everybody
17:45
out there having a great Friday. Let's keep a roll in fourteen fights to
17:48
talk about. Andrea Lee, Montana de la Rosa eighty five hundred, Lee
17:52
seventy seven hundred Rosa, Lee minus one sixty Rosa plus one forty. This
17:57
fight the type for the most likely to go at the distance on the card.
18:00
It's plus two point fifty to finish. Lee plus three thirty five,
18:04
Rosa plus six seventy five. Again, not much interest for me in this
18:10
fights. What about you and I guess who would your preferred side? D
18:14
Because I kind of went back and forth. I'm curious what you said,
18:18
yeah, not much interest in the fight as a whole. Lee's gonna have
18:22
the striking edge, Dela Rossa is gonna have the wrestling edge, but Lee
18:26
could wrestle, whereas I just don't see Delarussa having any chance on the feet
18:30
in this one. And they fought before delar Rosa landed five takedowns in that
18:33
fight. It was back in twenty nineteen, but Lee still won, just
18:37
completely outstruck her on the feet. She only scored seventy DraftKings points, which
18:41
is not gonna cut it at eighty five hundred, and then Dela Rosa scored
18:45
forty three in that one. So if you give her the win, that's
18:48
at seventy three. We could deal with that at seventy seven hundred, but
18:52
I kind of see her if she wins, it's probably in that seventy range,
18:56
and I don't know that that's gonna cut it on this card. So
18:59
I prefer Lee because I think she's more likely to break the slate, go
19:03
out there, get like a head kick knockout in the first round. But
19:07
I'm also fine nexting both sides of the fight out, So I'm not sure
19:10
I have it as like a two star, where I would be fine moving
19:14
it to a three star if you feel confident in either side, But I'd
19:17
also be fine moving it to a one star if you think it's gonna play
19:19
out like the last one. Because it's seventy points from either side. I
19:22
just don't think it's gonna be on the optimal lineup, and I'm picking the
19:25
favorite to get it done, so I guess she'll be my preferred play.
19:29
Yeah, I agree with you pretty much everything. My preferred play was lead.
19:33
She's taking some money the past couple of days, but she doesn't look
19:37
good man like I was at that average fight. I mean, she really
19:40
had nothing to do, like no threat on the feet, and the last
19:42
four have all gone to decision Like there's really just no threat from her.
19:48
I think it's a boring decision, and that probably bus so again, it's
19:52
a low ownership fight play in chalkyor Linus, but eighty five hundred like Imobov
19:57
is one hundred more. In the main event, there's that Zach Reies Marcus
20:02
Marquez fights. I like the client fight more like. Yeah, I mean,
20:07
I guess any league team you can always play like a cannoneer two or
20:10
something like that and leave. If you're not playing emobov, leave like seven
20:15
hundred on the table. I guess that's probably how I go about stuff.
20:18
What I'm trying to say is not playing that uh that fight in single entry
20:22
stuff. I'll mix it into larger field stuff, mainly lee side. Probably
20:26
bus though. It's how I see it. Let's keep it going. Another
20:30
fight, really don't like much. It's the highest, biggest, favorite,
20:32
highest priced fighter. Brackatona coming in around minus six twenty five taking on Jesse
20:37
Butler's plus four fifty. This fight is plus one sixty to finish. Brackatona
20:45
is plus one sixty inside the distance, Jesse Butler plus fifteen hundred. Now,
20:51
man, I was definitely looking at Jesse Butler on the scales and he
20:55
made weight. His last fight against Jim Miller on short notice was at one
20:59
fifty five. This fight's at one thirty five. He's definitely gonna add Bradkatona's
21:03
short for the division, so it's gonna be a huge heighten reach advantage for
21:07
Jesse Butler. The problem is the dude just isn't good, and yeah,
21:11
height and reach can only take you so far when you're not very good.
21:15
Brad Katona by what is the question. I'd say by decision, just because
21:22
he's not really a power puncher and I don't see him wanting to grapple with
21:26
Butler, because the only way Butler wins this fight is by a submission,
21:30
in my opinion, just grabbing onto a guillotine or something like that. So
21:33
I'm gonna x Butler out of my playerpool. I have no interest in him.
21:37
If he gets the sub then I'm done. But I'm also not interested
21:41
in Katona either, because he's ninety six hundred dollars and he's I mean,
21:45
he's favored to win by decision, which which is not gonna be good.
21:48
We almost need him to get a first round knockout, which is plus five
21:52
point fifty That equals about fifteen percent implied odds, So that's where I would
21:57
max him in the solver. But I'd prefer to be closer to zero than
22:02
fifteen and take people who are priced under him, who I think can and
22:04
will outscore him. So give me Katona to win a clear decision and probably
22:11
score less than ten x or maybe right around ninety points and just not get
22:15
it done at his price tag. But yeah, this is a fight that
22:17
this is my least fay fight on the card. Actually interesting, I'll keep
22:21
Katona in the pool and cap his ownership because he think he's gonna be relatively
22:26
low owned in this top range. When it ownership's out pretty soon after the
22:30
show, you'll see that we have it as well, Like we think Roald
22:33
Rosas Junior for cheaper, will be more, Bruno Ferrera will be more,
22:37
Protest will be more, and Osntos by more by a little bit. And
22:41
it's also hard to leave money with Katona, so like if Katona puts up
22:45
one point thirty and you leave money on the table with him, those lineups
22:48
are very like should not be due to very often, so that's kind of
22:52
how I'll be looking to use him, or like when I play the main
22:53
event, which will be chalky or stuff like that. But yeah, I
22:56
agree with you. In a vacuum, I prefer for Bruno Ferra fa cheaper,
23:00
Robert Rosas Junior has more wrestling, grappling upside, Prontes has better finishing
23:06
odds, Dosantos has better finishing odds and wrestling upside. So yeah, like
23:11
Katona is more of a game theory play and just Jesse Butler isn't good,
23:15
But yeah, I agree. I don't think he wrestles, and that's kind
23:18
of what we want if he does get one hundred and twenty. So yeah,
23:22
I don't like it either. We talked about it those last three fights
23:25
after Mora Marcos, Gasseneda, Lee Rosa or Della Rosa, Katona Butler.
23:30
I hope those three fights aren't on the optimal because I will be underweight,
23:33
over fading. Let's get to this next fight. Pretty interesting one. Carlos
23:37
prote Is taken on Charles Reki minus two twenty for this fight or minus two
23:42
thirty three Protas plus one ninety eight Raki minus two twenty for this fight.
23:47
To finish, Prote's minus one thirty inside the distance Raki plus three ninety five.
23:52
So like we just talked about, Katona at ninety six hundred is plus
23:56
one sixty to finish. Protes at ninety two hundred is minus one thirty to
24:00
finish. Now, I'll throw two on this. He's low volume and he's
24:03
a striker, So like, if he gets a third round knockout, is
24:07
he cooked for the optimal? Do you think he gets in around one or
24:10
two? I'm definitely playing racky. I know that he is my preferred side.
24:15
We play a hllary based game, we need some dogs. I think
24:18
he has a big, big time ceiling and can win this fight and mixing
24:22
takedowns maybe, but start with the prompte side because yeah, the volume is
24:26
a little concerning. Yeah, I would say a third round knockout probably doesn't
24:30
get it done at ninety two hundred dollars because he's not gonna really be I
24:34
don't see him landing any takedowns anyways. I don't think he'll even be interested
24:37
in shooting for takedowns. He probably the higher volume of the two, but
24:42
he's not gonna blow you away with volume, So I think he's gonna need
24:45
a first or second round knockout, which is definitely doable. But I like
24:51
other favorites more if I'm paying up that much, and I agree, I
24:55
think Radkeys might preferred play because at seven k any win from him, probably
25:00
he does score more than ten X. He could go out there and wrestle.
25:02
He could go out there and get a knockout. Both of these guys
25:04
have been knocked out before. But if it's mainly taking place on the feet
25:10
and somehow he wins a decision, he can still score seventy points and if
25:12
not many other underdogs win that could get it done. So I'll probably be
25:17
overweight to Radkey, underweight to Protase, but I do think that Protase is
25:22
the deserving favorite. I think most of this fight takes place on the feed.
25:26
I think he's just going to be the better, higher volumes, taller,
25:29
longer striker, a little bit more dangerous as well. I think I
25:33
just have him winning a decision, which is not going to cut it at
25:36
ninety two hundred dollars. So I'll be underweight to him. But Radkey is
25:38
one of those underdogs that I would be fine even doubling the field on.
25:42
Yeah, I agree with everything. One question on that Jacoby or Protees if
25:47
you had to pick, because I've been going back and forth on that,
25:52
man, I see me having similar ownership to them both, I would say
25:59
I'd probably just say, whoever I have lower owned, is who I prefer
26:03
lower owned you prefer, and that yeah, and that is Jacoby, And
26:07
I think that is probably right. If I ever so slightly went like overweight
26:11
Prots, but around the field more so underweight Jacoby because I think the finishing
26:17
upside is better for Prots, which isn't a hot take it I mean minus
26:19
one thirty for protas compared to plus one twenty five for Jacoby. However,
26:26
Jacoby has a lot more volume, so if he gets like a second round
26:30
knockout, even a third round knockout for Jacoby could be a big score,
26:33
whereas Prote's. You don't think that as much, but I'm hoping. I
26:37
think the rays Jacoby is more likely. That could just be a steering contest
26:41
at space or just exchanging leg kicks or whatever, Whereas I think reck he
26:45
probably pushes the pace. And this one is what I'm hoping and makes it
26:48
a dog fight. But yeah, and both fights that the dogs might preferred
26:52
play, so we'll keep it rolling. Fun mid tier fight hinted at a
26:56
little bit clash the styles Luda bit. Klein the striker takes on too Moistus
27:00
the grappler minus one thirty five Climb plus one point fifteen Moises minus one thirty
27:06
for this fight to finish, Moistis and Klein both to twenty is the or
27:11
both two twenty The inside the distance prop is I'll throw it to you and
27:15
then you can answer this question as well, how do you see this fight
27:18
going? And then Katona or no, we have Katona lower ownership than Process.
27:23
I can answer that one. I thought he meant, who do you
27:26
like more? Break this fight? Now? Yeah, both these guys are
27:30
well rounded, but Klein is gonna have the striking edge, Moist is gonna
27:34
have the grappling edge, so that's where they should be looking to take it.
27:38
I just don't trust moiss Is wrestling for him to dictate where this fight's
27:44
gonna take place. So I'm picking Klein to win. He's just probably got
27:48
to get a knockout, especially if he is going to be spending any time
27:52
on his back end this fight. But he is coming off a slate breaking
27:55
one hundred and thirty five point win. I mean that was against the punching
27:59
Bag, so I don't see that being in play in this fight. But
28:03
does eighty five to ninety get you there? I don't know. I would
28:07
say probably not, but I do think he's more likely to get a knockout
28:11
than Moises is to get a submission, So he is going to be my
28:15
preferred play. But I'll keep both of them in my player pool and probably
28:18
just be underweight as a whole. Yeah, I wish I had a strong
28:23
lean or a lot of confidence on this one. I ended up saying my
28:26
ever so slight lean, like, I don't care what if I had forty
28:30
five percent climb in twenty percent moisest and liked my script. I'm in forty
28:34
five percent Moises twenty percent line I'm in, So I know that. But
28:37
if I had to pick, Moises is my preferred play just because the six
28:41
hundred savings, and I'd be easily fine with building a lineup, getting climbed
28:45
in there, take clin out going Moises leave six hundred, eliminate half the
28:51
field or half the dupes or whatever it may be. So that's why Moist
28:53
is my preferred play, since I think it's easier to get different with him
28:56
and the salary. But it says really nothing to do about the fight much
29:02
because I'm torn like Client is shown good takedown defense, he's I say,
29:06
class of styles, but Client can wrestle and Moises isn't a bad striker,
29:10
so it's kind of like chirping them a little bit without meaning to. But
29:12
Client easily has the striking advantage. I think more dangerous head kicks, nasty
29:18
moist is clear grappling advantage and wanting on the mats. So yeah, I
29:22
guess give me the cheaper, the small dog with the draftings, friendly style
29:26
and wrestling grappling if I had to choose. Not a strong take though.
29:30
My only pushback is that I would not be okay with forty five percent of
29:33
either one of them, but I'd be fine with like thirty percent client,
29:37
fifteen percent Moises or vice versa, something like that. But thirty is probably
29:41
where I want to keep it mixed. That's fair. I'm usually a little
29:45
more. Yeah, if I love everything and I see forty five, it's
29:48
hard, especially on fourteen fights twenty eight fighters, to get all the ownerships
29:53
kind of how you're fine with. That's why sometimes I'm like, yeah,
29:57
you know what, I'm done building this up all the t Let's go about
30:00
my day and hopefully it gets there. So yeah, it's a fun car
30:03
though. Man, it's a really good DFS card this week. Let's keep
30:07
it all. Appreciate everyone hanging outs like fun and subscribe button. If you
30:11
already haven't hit it, I don't know what you're doing. Do us a
30:14
favor, Hit the like, hit the subscribe and if you want olver MMA
30:17
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content hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars up top in these sports on DraftKings
30:34
this week, FanDuel content as well. If you want monthly six months and
30:38
you will be a part of the discord at over shipinnation dot com. I'm
30:44
excited for this one, and I am a big mcgell Baeza fan, so
30:48
I'm excited to see him back in action taking on Poonahli Soriano eighty seven hundred,
30:52
Bayza seventy five hundred Soriano Baeza minus one ninety five. Soriano plus one
30:59
seventy He fights minus two eighty to finish. Bay's a minus one ten Sriana
31:03
plus two forty five. You're probably like, who the heck in the world
31:07
is Miguel Baeza fan. The dude is all offense and he is so skilled.
31:12
The leg kicks are nasty. He's got power, he's long for the
31:17
division when he puts it together and he flows. I think he is such
31:21
a fun striker. Mike Davis love watching him. Mike Davis huge fan of
31:25
him more than others. The problem is the dude can't take a punch to
31:27
save his life. Now, why I like him in this fight is,
31:32
Hey, I don't think Soriano's very good. I don't think he wrestles.
31:33
I think we get a striking match. Soriano can bink him, but I
31:37
think the volume, the technicality, everything is on the Baeza side. And
31:41
he finally took time off a year and a half. A little over that.
31:45
We saw Mickey gall come back and his chin look good. Sometimes you
31:49
just need time off. If this chin's fine and he can take some shots,
31:53
I think he he styles on Soriano, probably knocks him out in the
31:56
second, maybe the third, if he's that tough. But yeah, I'm
32:00
on baza Iko. That doesn't mean I'm not playing Soriano though he's cheap plus
32:06
two forty five inside the distance again, someone that has had a bad chin.
32:09
I think those fight delivers. But I'm definitely on the Bayeza's side.
32:13
What about you? I agree? I agree with everything he said I'll be
32:15
higher on Beze. I'm picking him to win. I just think he's more
32:19
skilled everywhere. The chin is the biggest concern, but he's been out for
32:22
two years. Uh So I just I think he wins the fight. But
32:29
I do think this could be like a phone booth fight where they just go
32:31
at it right away and they swing until one of them goes down. Well,
32:35
Thenano probably wins, and if Beza goes down Soreano's breaking the slate.
32:38
So he's one of those cheap underdogs with one hundred hundred and ten point upside,
32:44
so I do want exposure to him. I also don't have him too
32:46
highly owned, so I'm finally going overweight to him. But my preferred leverage
32:51
play is gonna be bes. I'm gonna make it a point to get him
32:52
into a lot of lineups and he could take it to the ground and dominate
32:57
with the grappling as well. I don't know that he's the better wrestler.
33:00
I think he's the much better grappler, and I also think he's the just
33:02
more skilled striker. He's dangerous as well, So give me Bes at eighty
33:07
seven hundred dollars. He's gonna be one of my favorite plays probably on the
33:08
cord. Yeah, I absolutely love it. I wanted to mention that too,
33:13
about the grappling. He's done at least one grappling tournaments in his time
33:17
off this. Bajaza by sub open plus eight hundred is now plus three fifty,
33:24
So that's telling me something. If this fight does hit the mat,
33:28
I mean, Baas is way more skilled on the mat, but you don't
33:30
really see him shoot for takedowns. I don't know though, if he doesn't
33:35
like get hit in the face, and he's realized that the past year and
33:37
a half and he's worked on his grappling, I think he could come out
33:39
here. Plus three fifty by sub is short plus two hundred by knockout.
33:45
If he gets that sub there's even maybe a little more potential upside is how
33:49
I run into that line movement and just the easier path of victory. So
33:52
yeah, I like Baeza here. We talked a lot about Baza and we
33:57
both like him a lot, but we will be playing sory out. That's
34:00
part of the game theory. The target fights we think are gonna win,
34:05
and not just fourteen fights. You pick the winner in all of them,
34:07
and you fade the other side. That's not how we play mmadfs, so
34:13
I like it. We're on the same page. Five fights left, five
34:15
pretty fun fights. You talked about liking a lot of the Lake cart the
34:19
fights more. I'm with you, and you definitely like this one. Julian
34:22
Marquez zach Reese minus one thirty six Marquez plus one sixteen is zach Reese most
34:29
likely fight to finish on the card minus six hundred and plus one fifteen a
34:32
pop for both of them to finish what you got man tough one to call,
34:39
but they're both in the mid range. Both have one hundred point up
34:42
sides, So I just like the fight as a whole, and it's one
34:45
where I probably just let the solver control my ownership on this one, but
34:47
I want to make sure that I have a good amount of both, and
34:51
I don't have them currently at least I don't have either one of them too
34:53
highly owned, so I see me being overweight to what I currently have them
34:57
both projected at. I like Reese to the more skilled striker early, but
35:02
he's I don't think he's ever been to the second round, so I just
35:06
don't trust these guys who have never been out around one, so I like
35:08
Marquez late, and I also think Marquez has more submission upside. It's just
35:14
that he's never landed a takedown in the UFC, which I would like to
35:15
see him shoot for more of. I just trust Marquez a little bit more
35:20
so I'd say he's probably my preferred play. But if I need that four
35:22
hundred dollars, I have no issue going over to Reese and having him as
35:27
my higher owned fighter of the two. But I am picking Marquez to get
35:30
it done probably by a second half of the fight. Submission. You and
35:36
I have it pretty much the same, and it's not confident for me at
35:38
all. But I mean Reese has almost all his fights and in the first
35:43
not much PRO experience. Marquez has fought the way better competition UFC experience.
35:47
He looked fine against Marc Andre Barrio. Barrio just did what he does great.
35:52
Cardio took over as the fight went, but Marquez was throwing a lot
35:55
of volume. Yeah, I think it's just a fight you really want to
35:59
target. Now, I will say, you're you're way better than the ownership
36:02
you always have been spot on. I do think that Marco's Castanata fight that
36:08
will be a little lower on and some of that has to go to Reese
36:12
Marquez is what I'm thinking. Like minus, it will be this fight getting
36:15
more explode more ownership than I have. Yeah, I do expect it to
36:21
get a little more ownership than this. I do think it's spread out on
36:22
a four team fight card, but it's priced right in the mid tier and
36:27
minus six hundred. People love to see that, so pick a winner.
36:30
Picking a winner is pretty tough though, in the fight for sure, When
36:34
is DraftKings gonna add I pokes the scoring system Yeah, never, but definitely
36:38
get used to it. If you're Yeah, if you just started watching UFC,
36:43
you will see ipokes. Not as many nutshots, I feel like,
36:45
as of late fence grabs, Oh my gosh, nothing more tilting that fence
36:49
grabs when it goes against you. Let's keep it rolling. Four fights left.
36:52
The second most likely fight to finish on the card Bruno Frere taking on
36:57
Dustin Stole's fist minus two seventy five. Bruno plus two to twenty is Dustin.
37:01
This fight is minus four to seventy five to finish. Bruno Ferrera minus
37:07
one seventy five Stole fis plus three fifty. Another fight I like a lot
37:13
of and so I guess I'll start with this one. I see you're doing
37:15
a little thing with ownership. It feels like Ferrera round one or stoles Fis
37:20
after that. I see the only there's not too many props on this on
37:23
this fight at least some books Freres plus one sixty and round one at some
37:29
books. Dustin Solstice in that same book. Let me get this right.
37:34
In that same book, where's the decision props? Ferrera's plus seven hundred to
37:38
win by decision and stoles Fis is plus five to fifty. So I think
37:43
I agree with books. I think Bruno is way front loaded, very live
37:46
in round one, dangerous strong, has finished all of his fights, most
37:51
of them round one. Stoles Fis. I mean, he just got absolutely
37:54
nuked against a Boost a couple of fights ago early. But if he can
37:59
get into fights, he's a solid wrestler, slash grappler, solid cardio.
38:05
I think he has the cardio advantage. It can break Bruno. So like
38:07
you see ninety four hundred and sixty eight hundred, my preferred play sixty eight
38:12
hundred Stolsfus, I'll be overweight. I think he has multiple pass but I'll
38:16
also have some Bruno since his round one or like if you say someone got
38:21
a one minute bonus, I think it's probably him, or it's probably that
38:23
Marcos fight. But I do see we have him second highest owned or the
38:30
highest own outside of the main event. I'll say, and if that's the
38:32
case, I like soul swuicide even more than I initially did, so yeah,
38:37
gimme soulsfus. I guess as a winner. I don't know Bruno for
38:42
a koh and round one is scary, but soul swus is my preferred play
38:46
at ownership for sure. What about you? I agree, I'm picking Stultzwist
38:51
to get the upset here. He's gonna be the one with the wrestling and
38:53
grappling upside, and I think if he wrestles early, then we just take
38:58
the power away from Ferrera away. I don't trust Ferreira to go deep into
39:01
this fight anyway, so it's like first round or bust DraftKings wise for Ferreira,
39:07
but at his current ownership, I have no interest in getting that high,
39:10
so I'll be underweight to him, definitely still getting exposure to him because
39:14
he is minus one fifty to win by TKO plus one sixty to win in
39:19
round one. Those are good metrics. I want some of him, but
39:21
I'd rather be closer to like twenty thirty percent. And then Stultswiss. I
39:24
have him at pretty low owned and any win from Stultswiss is gonna score more
39:29
than ten x. But he has one hundred point upside even in a decision.
39:31
If he can go out there and wrestle all three rounds, he could
39:34
score one hundred plus points in a decision. But I like him to get
39:37
a late submission here. I'll be at least double the field on Stultswiss,
39:40
if not more. He's a top three underdog for me on this slate.
39:45
And then just I mean, it's just a great fight to target because minus
39:50
four seventy five that it doesn't go the distance, I expect it to not
39:52
go the distance either. I just don't trust these guys like Ferira, who
39:55
don't go deep into fights, who throw power in everything they have. I
40:00
just don't see that style holding up for three rounds. So either he gets
40:01
the job done early or he loses by submission. In my opinion, I
40:06
like it. I absolutely like nothing more to add to this one. Hey,
40:08
we're aligned on a lot of these. Maybe you and I holding hands
40:12
at the top of the leaderboard tomorrow. I will take that three fights left.
40:15
We have talked about this fight, I think just once. Actually it
40:20
was scheduled twice. Roight Rod Juell Rosas Studior taking out Ricky Tertios minus two
40:24
twenty Roastas Junior plus one eighty five for Tertios. This fight's plus one hundred
40:30
to finish Roastaus Junior plus one p thirty Tertios plus six seventy five. Yeah,
40:37
we talked about it. It was on the Mexico City. I believe
40:39
card Zelhueber actually absolutely beat the brakes out of Prato. Roy Val got the
40:44
upset win over Marino. I mean, I don't know if dude completely just
40:49
had a panic attack, what he feels, felt totally fine walking into the
40:52
arena. Videos of him like dabbing up all the fans and all that.
40:58
You get word that he couldn't the walk and they were gonna have the fight
41:01
the next week, And I don't know exactly what happened. I don't know
41:04
if I guess dude was grounded from his parents. I don't know if that's
41:07
why I didn't fight. But anyway, yeah, Rosas Junior probably you guys
41:12
probably know about him, very young kid power grappler wrestler, USC wanted to
41:17
be a star. Christian Rodriguez ended that hype train a bit, but he's
41:22
still really young and the UFC still wants him to win. It's how I
41:24
see it. They still are giving him tertios. I think the USC is
41:28
like, yeah, this is a guy you can beat. We feel confident
41:30
about it. Rosas Junior there, camp feels confident about it. I think
41:36
he can take the back when minutes on the ground control him. I don't
41:38
know. I don't think it's probably gonna be the most fun fight to watch.
41:43
Yeah, I got Rosas Junior probably decisions sub wouldn't surprise me. But
41:46
I think he can control it on the mat for periods of time, So
41:50
he's a good DFS play. Though I agree Rosses Junior is gonna be my
41:53
preferred play here because his biggest edge is gonna be on the ground. That's
41:58
where he wants to get the fight, and too just doesn't have good takedown
42:00
defense, so I could see him getting taken down six plus times in this
42:05
fight. He's actually been taken down six times in a win and then taking
42:08
down seven times in another win, and then his two losses he wasn't even
42:12
taken down in. So I just I don't know what the heck to do
42:14
with this guy. But Turkios is a wild guy, kind of high volume
42:19
where if he is able to win, I expect him to score more than
42:22
ten x. I would just rather take that wrestling and grappling upside from Arosas
42:25
Junior, who if he wins, I think most of it's gonna come on
42:29
the ground and probably with lots of takedowns. I don't know that I trust
42:32
his cardio, so maybe it could be one where he wins the first two
42:36
rounds and then we're sweating out that third. But I would still rather pay
42:38
it for him. He's not too highly priced in my opinion. I'd rather
42:42
have him than a Katonah, So he'll be my preferred leverage play, but
42:46
I will get some Turkios exposure as well, just because I don't fully trust
42:51
Rosas Junior. Yeah, makes a lot of sense to me. We've seen
42:54
him gas as the fight goes. He's still a very young kid. Tertios,
43:00
I'm I see like a grown man against the kids. Still like,
43:01
it's hard for me not to get some of the dog. So I'm with
43:06
you. There two fights left co main event time. Appreciate y'all hanging out
43:09
with us. Dustin Jacoby Dominic Reyes minus two thirty five Jacoby plus two hundred
43:15
is Dominic Reyes minus one seventy five for this fight to finish. Jacoby plus
43:20
one twenty five Reyes plus two sixty five coming off a pretty decent sized layoff.
43:27
Yeah, I just I guess I'll throw it to you right away.
43:29
We talked about a little bit. I don't have as much interest in Jacoby
43:31
in the top range, but yeah, take it away. How do you
43:35
see it going? Yeah, four years ago, I would have favored Reyes
43:38
like minus four hundred in this matchup coming off that close loss, could have
43:43
won to John Jones. But since then he's gone zero and three will being
43:46
knocked out in all three fights, and we haven't seen him in almost two
43:51
years. So I just don't trust Reyes. He's got one of the biggest
43:53
falloffs that we've seen in recent history. So I trust Jacoby as the more
44:00
liable fighter. I do think he is the better and higher volume striker over
44:02
the course of three rounds. He could get a knockout as well, but
44:08
he's got to get the knockout, probably at his price at what is the
44:13
eighty nine hundred or now nine k. Like we need a first or second
44:16
round knockout most likely unless he is landing lots of volume mony like you mentioned
44:21
earlier, maybe a third round knockout could cut it. I just don't know
44:24
how Jacoby wins a decision and makes the optimal lineup here, and that's how
44:29
I picked him to win, is by a decision, so I don't have
44:31
much interest in him. But on the other side, like if we can
44:36
see a little bit of the old rays he's alive for a first round knockout.
44:39
He's an underdog who could score one hundred and ten plus points, and
44:44
those are the underdogs that I'm really looking to target. He doesn't have a
44:46
whole lot of exposure, I mean a lot of ownership in my opinion either,
44:50
So I might double the field on Rayes, but then I might be
44:55
a round field waight on Jacoby, which probably puts me about the same ownership
44:59
on him both. But I guess that makes ray as my preferred play of
45:01
the two because he's my preferred leverage play, but I just don't trust him
45:06
at all. So give me Jacoby to win a decision. Yeah, I
45:07
don't have too much more to add. Like we play a salary based game.
45:12
If Jacoby was seventy two hundred and Rays was seventy two hundred, of
45:15
course I prefer Jacoby's side. I just I like others in the nine K
45:19
high ak range more mainly the primary wrestler. Grapplers like Jacoby not favored to
45:25
finish nine k, and we'll not get it to take down at that point.
45:30
He does throw good value, like five point five significant strikes per minute,
45:32
but even that, like one hundred and ten significant strikes and nothing else
45:37
in a decision win probably isn't enough for the optimal And then just naturally,
45:40
like everything you said is true, But Rays's loss is John Jones. Jacoby
45:45
is losing to John Jones. I thought Ray has won that fight. I
45:49
mean debatable. Sure, next fight, there's YEARI and there's Yan Yon Yuri.
45:53
Like I think Dustin Jacoby's using losing to Yan. I think he's losing
45:58
The YEARI Riots Fan fight wasn't great, But Ryan Span just a freak athlete
46:01
like he can do that at random times when he's onna. Rays is gonna
46:07
get the fight he wants at range. The powerful shots will be them.
46:10
The judges are freaking awful as we saw. I mean, man, we
46:14
could go on a whole rant there. I think this fight's more likely to
46:17
go to decision than people think. But folks have adjusted open minus two to
46:22
sixty to finish minus one seventy five. Now I think Rays can knock him
46:27
out. I think Reyes can win a decision with more powerful shots. And
46:30
you never know what judges do. So yeah, I mean give me the
46:32
eighteen hundred savings in this one. Reyes is my preferred play. Also should
46:38
have the wrestling edge as well. Oh Sheets, what's up? Thank you?
46:42
Heats appreciate that, guys would kick but keep up the great work.
46:47
We appreciate that. Sheets. Hope you're doing well. Times are tough due
46:52
to fight sex making the AF tool second if for a full month yet,
46:54
but maybe you guys will kick in the extra three. Keep up the great
46:58
work. We will do that, Sheets, I will kick that in for
47:00
you. So hey, you, how should we do this? You know
47:04
what? Let's do it for next week. Something in the YouTube, so
47:07
it makes it fair significant strikes. I'll keep an eye on the YouTube,
47:10
Sheets if you don't want to tell me right now though, but combine significant
47:15
strikes for the main event. That means, if you're not a member of
47:17
chip nation dot com, cheats is given away a monthly pass. We'll chip
47:22
in. We got the rest. Sheets don't have the money, though,
47:25
come on, I'm always seeing you at the top of the leader board.
47:28
Yeah, let's do it on the playback. So if you're watching live,
47:30
just make sure you refresh after this ends and then throw it in those comments.
47:34
Yep, yep, So throw it to the YouTube like you like,
47:37
not right now YouTube comments. Obviously it has to be before the fight starts,
47:42
which is tomorrow at five eastern IMA off cannoneer full significant strikes the combined.
47:46
Whoever's closest or gets it on the head gets a half month on Sheets,
47:52
half month on us. Like the sheets. Hope we're doing a well
47:54
man main event time. Oh. I did also want to shout out the
47:58
JP bar eighty four, who is in the live final deep Water. Unfortunately
48:04
not the result you wanted. You got further than I did. Shout out
48:07
to you third place for him JP Bar shout out to you awesome stuff sixty
48:12
thousand dollars in the MMA final Nick, so not put it in the YouTube
48:17
comments after the show is over. Not right here, since I will not
48:21
remember your guest. Let's get right into a nast MMA Baba Jared Cannonir eighty
48:25
six hundred, Ymavov seventy six hundred is cannon near. This fight is slightly
48:30
favored to go the distance at plus well. Actually, hold on. Money
48:36
came in on the under overnight it was plus one five. Now it's minus
48:39
one fifteen. Cannoneer side plus two seventy five Imava plus two ten. That's
48:45
a little interesting twenty cents overnight on the under. The pricing is also interesting
48:52
in this one. When you see eighty six hundred seventy six hundred, you're
48:54
expecting like a minus one sixty favorite minus one twenty five. So the money
49:00
line value on the cannon near side inside the distance props are similar. I'm
49:06
on Canonar strongly no, but I do think, to be honest, I'll
49:10
probably be underweight. We have this fight a little over eighty percent combined ownership.
49:16
Fight is pretty much a coin flip to finish, So any third round,
49:21
fourth round knockout probably doesn't get there. I don't think you really see
49:23
wrestling like I don't think Imovov would have too much success. I don't think
49:29
Cannoneer wrestles. Both guys average about four point five significant strikes per minute.
49:34
If this fight goes, the championship rounds are decision. You can see ninety
49:37
two and then Moysis or Client out scores it, or the Reese Marquez or
49:43
whatever it may be. So I prefer the one case Savings and seventy six
49:46
hundred Cannoneer. It's easier to leave salary. I think he has the better
49:51
cardio as the fight goes. He is coming off a tour name mcl which
49:54
is a little scary, but yeah, underweight probably this fight, I lean
49:59
the Cannoneer in the same side. What about you? I agree? I
50:02
mean, a thousand dollars difference and now Kanyoneer just moved a plus one hundred.
50:07
Wouldn't shock me to see this be pick him. Maybe even a slight
50:09
favorite for Canyoneer by fight time. The guy, I mean, he's forty
50:14
years old, but he looks like he's in the prime of his career.
50:16
He landed three hundred and eighty two significant strikes in his last two round two
50:21
five round fights, scored one hundred and fifty five in the decision in his
50:24
last fight. I just don't see Imovov having anywhere near that kind of ceiling.
50:30
And if Imovov wins, I could see him not on the optimal lineup,
50:34
whereas if Kenyoneer wins, I think he's on it, and I'm picking
50:37
Canyoneer to win. So my preferred play is going to be Canyonare. I'll
50:40
be overweight to him. I'll be underweight to Imovov, hoping that if he
50:44
does win, he just doesn't score enough points. Get a little bit different
50:47
by not having the main event. But yeah, I think that the line
50:51
I mean, but when it opened, I thought it should have been a
50:52
lot closer. I very slightly favored Candoneer in this spot. But the fighter
50:59
who is ten years or more younger wins like sixty seven percent of the time.
51:02
That's always a tough stat to go against. But when you look like
51:06
Canyoner does at forty years old, I'll go ahead and side with that.
51:09
So give me Canyoneer. He's got knockout upside he's got a little bit of
51:12
takedown upside as well coming off. I believe four takedowns on Victori. I
51:16
didn't expect that. So I just think this guy looks better and better every
51:20
time I see him, and I'm gonna side with him to get the win.
51:22
Yep, and I do like that. What she says as well,
51:25
you can easily plug in imov off, take out Ima off, go cannon
51:30
near, very very easily. We both think Imovov and Canadi will be around
51:35
the low forties, high thirty percent mark awesome, stop big Marley. That's
51:38
all fourteen fights. Man, It's a good DFS card. Like I'm more
51:42
pumped for this card than last week's card, which might sound crazy as the
51:45
paper Brea. You get Strickland Costa poorier Islam, which was a phenomenal fight.
51:51
Phenomenal, phenomenal fight. Poia put on a show. But I like
51:55
playing DFS more when I have more action in play. I play more action
51:59
when I think the card suits it better. I think this card suits DFS
52:04
very well. I'm punped for it. Only one weight miss by half a
52:07
pound. She was fining twenty percent of her purse. Looks like we're all
52:10
gonna go a fourteen fights as long as rabul Rosas Junior actually makes the walk.
52:15
Not gonna jinx it any farther. Final thoughts, Big Marley now man,
52:20
Hopefully we do get a solo shipper. Hopefully it's somebody watching. If
52:22
it's not us, well, good luck to everybody that is watching. Good
52:25
luck to you title. Let's ship it. Let's ship it baby, appreciate
52:29
that again, She's good luck to everybody out there. Enjoy your weekend.
52:32
Let's make some money. Head to reship a nation dot com if you want
52:36
to check out weekly, monthly, six months, and annual packages and of
52:39
course shoutout drafters dot com. Get over there. Fifteen dollars drafts, five
52:44
hundred k up top two dollars drafts as well. Use that promo code ship
52:47
it. They will match all the way up to one hundred dollars one hundred
52:52
percent. Have a good week in Big Marley. Enjoy the nice weather.
52:55
Let's win some money for Big Marley. I'm titledunent, be safe, peace
53:00
us hands hands has still mother and buns most and they still mother and still
53:37
has most and still