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Deadline Smoke and Trade Talk · Rosters to Rings Podcast

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to Rosters to Rings. Alongside Chet West, I
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: am your host, Dad Levine. We got a baseball rich
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: show today, Chet. We're going to turn our attention to
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the American League West and National League Central and discuss
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: the strategies that to playoff contenders the Mariners and Cubs
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: they employed leading up to the trading deadline on Monday.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: We're going to share some of the factors that impact
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: trades outside of talent evaluation and competitive assessments. We're going
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: to discuss how executives and agents use the media during
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the deadline and how listeners can decipher the posts that
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: they read. But we're going to kick off with Chet
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: sharing some insights that he had from our conversation with
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: BB Abbott last week.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Thanks Dad. Yeah, so I got to take a little
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: beach stroll and listen to the show you guys did
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: last week in my absence. Great job. By the way,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: BB sounds like a colorful character, and I guess your
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: show with him, your interview with him kind of dispelled
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: some notions that I have about agents in general. I mean,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: as a fan, over the years, I listened to all
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: sorts of you know, player Acx's agent is asking for
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: X amount of dollars and player Ax's agent is looking
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: to get his player paid at the top of the
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: you know, the AAV wants to break the records for AV.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: But you know, Bbe had a slight. It gave me
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: A gave me a little hope maybe, is what we
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: might say. He'd he was there was a more nuance
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: into what he seemed to be looking for in his clients.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Now I know that you know, he's on the show,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: and he's going to present his case for his clients
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: as evenly as possible and and as humanly as possible,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: that it's not all about dollars and cents all the time.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: But I kind of put some of your conversations that
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: you guys were having last week. I was able to
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: kind of put A and b together with some conversations
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: that you've kind of told me about in the past,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: where you know, guys, that doesn't give me all the
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: info just because I'm a buddy of his, So once
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: in a while he'll tell me of something that has happened,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: but I don't get any of the names or anything.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: So he's kind of giving me a little look in,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't divulge a lot of the names and
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of the details. And so I was kind
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: of listening on that show and hearing a few of
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: those things come out, and I was kind of interested.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I'm like, wow, bbmvitt. He was talking about that point
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: in time when he was, you know, negotiating Buxton's contract
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: or something along those lines. And I got to say
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: that it was kind of refreshing to hear a guy
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: refer to his clients the way he was and in
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: the light that he was, and that he's not always
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: looking for the top dollar or the big buck.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: When we think of talent evaluation check, we're thinking of
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: the wizen scout, the guy who is a little leathery
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: sitting in the stands with his stopwatch and he's evaluating
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: three shortstops. Well, it's the same from the front office standpoint.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I am evaluating talent all the time. Most of my
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: talent evaluation goes to the people I'm negotiating with, So
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that's front office executives and in this case, CHET agents,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: and so each agent had a different profile. And yes,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: there was a kind of prototypical profile of the person
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: who was a lot of vitriol and a lot of
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: historyonics and they were looking for the most money, and
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: they tried to bully you to that end, but that
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: really was actually the exception, not the rule, And so
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of these guys were known for quality of life.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: They wanted to get their guys in the right market
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: that would allow their client to sign the next contract.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: They weren't looking to maximize this one per se. They
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: were looking to learn maximize the earning potential of their
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: guy throughout their course of their career. There were certain
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: guys who would forego additional money in every given year
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: in the name of getting an extra year added to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the deal because he wanted just to be able to
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: provide stability for their players. And I felt if I did,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the best of my job was scouting those guys, such
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: as when we started the subsequent negotiation, it was always
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: smoother than the last one because I knew exactly where
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: they wanted to go with it and what they prioritized historically.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean they couldn't change from time to time. Each
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: client probably demands something slightly different. But it so happened
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: that a lot of these guys represented guys that had
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: similar characteristics and the ones that BBE has always represented
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: there's a quality of life component that they always valued
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: above and beyond the last dollar they could earn in
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a deal, and that always made negotiating with him, I
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: think a little bit more transparent and a little bit
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: more rewarding. Kindidly, it was just a matter of finding
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: out what was that thing that mattered most of their
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: client and hopefully it aligned with the market you had
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: and the team you're working for.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: Well, it makes sense that he had that approach too,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: because he didn't exactly come out and desire to be
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: a sports agent from day one. I mean, he was
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: an attorney. He had a friend that was an athlete
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: that kind of said, hey, look, I could use your
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: help here. I could use some representation. That's kind of
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: how I took the genesis of their relationship in baseball is.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: And in doing so, he's looking at the player and
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: the player saying like, these are some things I'm looking
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: for that my current agent and or some agents I
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: know of aren't giving me. And so maybe as am
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I am I reading that right, was Chipper looking for
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: something a little different from bb that maybe the other
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: agents weren't giving at the time.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and fundamentally, I think he was looking for somebody
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: he could trust implicitly. And you know, don't don't get
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: us wrong, like Bbe is negotiated close to a billion
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: dollars worth of contracts, so she's just done. Is fair
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: sure of lofty deals, but there is something to be said.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: The few agents that have had clients for the entirety
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: of those clients' careers tend to be the ones that
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: negotiate beyond just the dollars and cents. And Michelle, let
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: me share with you. We alluded to it on the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: show last week. A negotiation about a player we actually
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: didn't ultimately sign was one of the most unique I've
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: ever experienced, and that was what bb Abbott on Zach Wheeler.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: The way that Bib chose to negotiate that deal was
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: he identified markets where Zach Wheeler was comfortable playing, and
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: he approached us and said, are you in for a
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: five year deal with Zach Wheeler? It's I think the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: entry point may have been sixty five million dollars. He said,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going to ask all the teams he has interested
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: in playing if they're in at sixty five million. If
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: there's more than one, I'm going to come back to
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: you and ask for more money and ask if you're
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: still in, if you're the only one left standing, you're
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: going to get the player at that dollar.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Amount, whittling down the field.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Right, So it's almost like an auction scenario. So we
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: were in at sixty five million, we were in at
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: seventy five million, we were in a ninety million, we
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: were in at one hundred million. This is what the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Twins. And then ultimately he called back and said
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: at that point everyone was in at enough money. He said,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: there's no more money. Zach wants out of this deal.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So I'm not asking a bit against yourself, but I
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: am going to share with you at this juncture, there's
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: another team in the mix that his wife has prioritized
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: over you guys. So unless something falls apart, we're basically
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: saying thank you for your interest, but we're going to
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: move on. And that ultimately was the Philadelphia Phillies. So
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I give BB credit on so many fronts. Era one
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: was identifying something that was very important to Zach and
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: his family and then staying true to it. And then
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: two was he then didn't ask us to leverage to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: use us to leverage blindly the Philadelphia Phillies. Once he
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: got the Phillies to a certain price point, they were comfortable.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: They didn't seek the next dollar. They sought security in
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: the market in which he wanted to pitch to make
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: his family the most satisfied and happy. He's been with
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Phillies ever since. And oh, by the way,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: probably been one of the best pitchers during his tenure
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: there in the entire major leagues.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: And I'm betting the Phillies were probably at the top
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: of Wheeler's wish list from the go, and he used
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: his skill sets to get them to be where they
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: needed to be in essence, probably from a dollars and
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: cents standpoint, and make his client happy by getting him
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: a deal going to Philadelphia. So he got the money
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: and he got the desirable location out of the whole entire.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Thing, right. And what you see as fans all too often,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: and what happens behind the scenes with executives is players
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: agents will come to you and say, the most important
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: thing for my player is to play in a competitive market.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Two is to get paid. And then they end up
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: signing in a non competitive market because I got paid
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: the most money there's no shame in saying they're trying
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: to get the most money they possibly can. But there
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: are players who will kind of put their foot down
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: and say, provided that it's in one of these markets
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: that I do deem competitive, so I do want the
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: most money, but it's not at thirty teams. It's in
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: these six to eight. There are others who just trust
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: their agent and say, go get me the most money
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: you possibly can. And sometimes those are the deals that
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: you see reported and at leaves you scratching your head.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I wonder why that players signed there. Well, in practice,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: it's probably because that team outspend the second place team
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: by like twenty percent.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: And that's a situation where you probably see that the
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: money did regin supreme maybe and was the only talking
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: point player went where they could get. I've seen in
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: certain situations where I've you know, a agent seems hell
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: bent on getting a player the highest AAV the highest
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: average annual value for their for their deal and the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: length of time doesn't matter as much. Maybe that's a
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: more of because there is just a short term outlook
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: on how long they'll be going or what they can
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: get from any of that. Well, it fast, it was
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: a fascinating interview. I enjoyed.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: My observation just to sure on that point is those
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: are the agents who are selling the next client on
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the ability to get you the most money based upon
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: my ability to get previous guys the most money. That's
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: their selling point. That's the type of client player they're attracting,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: whereas BB is selling people on more of that lifestyle
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: of Hey, if you want to be with me throughout
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: your career. Here's all these examples of guys who performed
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: extremely well, but in most cases they accepted something less
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: than top dollar to play exactly where they wanted to play.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That's the agent I am. I'm going to get you
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: into the place where you can you can be financially
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: secure for for generations, but also you're going to optimize
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: playing primarily if not exactly where you and your family
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: want to play.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: And you're not saying that he wouldn't be that agent
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: that would go out and get you the high aav
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: if that's what you wanted. He was just very accepting
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: of the fact that he could, you know, if you
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: had a special reason or special interest in playing a
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: certain place, he could understand that, and he could understand
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: you taking the lesser deal to do that, where I
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: don't know that. Are there agents that do not take
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: that into a fa You know, they look at a
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: player and say, no, I don't do that. We go
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: for the most money or bust.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I think and I couldn't speak factually here, but I'm
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: going to speak from experience. I do think there are
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: agents out there who basically say, hey, the deal with
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: me is you're trusting me to get you the best
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: deal as defined as the most money you can get.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: And yes, you'll have some guidance. It's not like he
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: just calls you up some day and say, surprise, surprise,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: you're playing for this team. But by and large, I
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: need to have as much latitude as I possibly can
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: for me to do the best I can, which is
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: leveraging and having teams bid against each other. I need
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to be able to do that authentically and on a
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and the only way to do that is to have
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: every team in play.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: In this conversation, I wonder if there's a time in
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: a guy's career where it's one more important than another.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're younger, you want to get into
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the right situation with the right team, because you're molding
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: yourself as a player in your career. You want to
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: have the right people around, but at the same time,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: you want to make some money in your younger years
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: when you have less things possibly strapping you down, maybe children, family, marriage.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: But as you get older, you're going to have more kids,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: you get a bigger family. You're going to want to
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: be maybe near you your roots, your family, your external family,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: your parents maybe, And so you're looking to kind of
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: traverse the country and go to a different spot, maybe
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: play in a different town for a different reason.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Well, Ched, I don't think this will surprise you. I
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: think we talk about this all the time as fans,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: which is some people weren't destined to play in some markets,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: you know, namely like New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago. These
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: can be very challenging markets to play in. They're not
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: for everyone. There are some guys who are haull of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: a who went to those markets and did not excel
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: in those markets. So I think there's something who said.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: You know, sometimes when we sit around people who are
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: or are more normal, people will say, what's the difference
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: between making twenty million dollars and fifteen million? I think
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: guys like bb Abbott really do put that question to
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: their clients and say, for that extra X millions of
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: dollars which will not material change your life at all,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: why don't we sacrifice some of that in the name
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: of getting some of these quality of life elements ironed
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: out and also put you in the market where you
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: can excel. So there's another contract down the road. Not
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: that this may be the last contract and the last
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: come I'll make on this is you know, every year
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: the media will write that article of here are the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: ten to twelve worst contracts in Major League Baseball. As
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: an agent, I would never want to have a client
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: on that be bad one. Bb Abbot never has a
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: client on that list because he's never hunting that extra
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: dollar and putting his player in a compromise position where
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: he can't shine.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: All right, that that was either way. It was a
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: great interview. When we come back, folks, don't leave. We're
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: going to take a quick break here. When we come back,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna kind of grill fat a little about the
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: ins and outs and the facts and myths around trade
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: deadline free agency. And you know now that I know
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: a little something more than not all agents are out
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: for the dollar. I want to know how they use
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: the media, all the information, the whole information game around
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: trade deadline. When we return on Roster Stories, welcome back.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: So in this segment, we're going to try and dispel
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: some of the myths, kind of maybe shore up some
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: of the facts around the information game during the trade
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: deadline that as a fan, I've always been curious about this.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: You know, I got my Twitter up on you know,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: August third, Monday next week. On my Twitter feed up there,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: I'll have Rosenthal of Pass and I'll have Hayman, all
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: of all the guys queued up on there, all their
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: feeds trying to figure out what's going on. And throughout
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: the day, I no doubt will be poked and prodded
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: emotionally as my tigers are in deals with for Scooble
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: and whatever else happens under the sun. And I'm just curious, man,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, how much of what we read during a
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: trade deadline week is actually truth? Like, have you if
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: you can put a percentage on it, what do you
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: think would be?
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Nineteen percent percent percent?
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: Oh that's so much lower than I actually thought. Yeah,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: I was going to hear I thought that a lot
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: of the smoke actually came from fire and it wasn't
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: people just blowing smoke.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so let let let's dive into a few areas
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: where I think media is being used both by front
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: offices to be fair and by maybe agents alike.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Yes, this is what I want to get to.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe check we could discuss a little bit
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: of like how we can cipher which messages have more
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: credence than others. So one thing that I would say,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: over time, like I think it used to be a
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: lot there used to be a lot more communication between
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: front offices and media. I mean, hew, there were stories
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: when I started the game. In the game that general
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: managers would go out to dinner with the media and
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: they'd have cocktails and they would you know, let their
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: hair down and really discuss the machinations of what was
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: going on behind the scenes, and there was a lot
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: of trust and a lot of relationships. Things have changed
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: dramatically now. Teams are really coveting information at a level
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that they never have before. Leaks are monitored, and rooms
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: are getting smaller, they're getting tighter, and really information is
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: not flowing out there. But there are a few exceptions
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: to that. So I think things that are warning signs
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: for fans and listeners out there. When you read a
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: post that says something like such and such a team
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is taking calls on a specific player, and you think
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to yourself, well, wow, that player is really having a
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: tough season, or he's really been on the decline for
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: the last two years, or that guy makes a lot
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: more money than he's worth. It's probably because the team
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: puts something out there and said, hey, we're you're going
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: to try to chum the waters. And nobody has expressed
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: interest in this guy. But maybe if we tell the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: media to put it out there, then maybe someone like, oh, wow,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: someone's interested in that player. Maybe we need to get
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in on him too.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Is that I mean, does it work that well? Have
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: you ever been suckered into anything like that in the
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: front office to.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Get your attention? You're like, well, i'll be you. That
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: player we don't value at all, but somebody else must
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: value him. Maybe we should take another look. But no,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: by and large, that doesn't typically get you moving. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: that's an example of something that could get put out
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: there that doesn't really have a ton of legs. The
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: other thing I would say from an agent's perspective. Sometimes
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: an agent will put out there something was.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: My next question, you know, after our BB conversation, and
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: we we really kind of blew him up a little bit,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: you know, we kind of stood him up as a
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: as an elite agent there and what you think he'd
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: ever throw something out there chum the water in the
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: media a little bit around trading.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Absolutely in the betterment of his client, without question. And
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: I think and I'm not going to divulge the actual
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: connections between media members and agents because I think that
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: would be a little bit untoured by me. But I
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: will tell for the ardent readers and listeners out there
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: of media, if you map to when an agent's players
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: of free agents or trades get done, who is the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: person who usually breaks that that's usually their hot contact,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: and that person then will do a little bit of
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a quid pro quo potentially in free agency when he
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: overstates the interest that maybe is it being expressed in
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: that player, probably more so than you'd see at the
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: trade deadline. But when you see that kind of like
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: back and forth where that is the same member media
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: who tends to break the stories every time that that
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: agent represents a player who signs a big deal, he
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: then will also do a favor in return that that.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Is what this does happen. This was a thing that happens.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: We've got a lot of quick pro quol we got
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: a that little not I don't know if it's like
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: a pay for access type of thing, but you're doing
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: the agent to favor so that later on during free agency,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: that agent will tip you off with the story that's
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: about to happen. Absolutely, this happened. Absolutely. Okay, so not
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: a myth. All right, good, I'll.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Take it to another extreme. When I was less experienced
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: in my career, every year the media would write an
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: article about here are the up and coming ten general
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: manager candidates, and it was a huge honor to be
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: on those lists. And I was very blessed to be
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: on the list a few times. And I would always
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: look at the list and say, wow, that's you know,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: six or seven of those guys are extremely qualified, and
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: then there are two or three like I've either never
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: heard of that person or that person is not that qualified.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, that must be that guy's that guy's
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: leak that that's how he's getting all the information. And
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: so it was exceptionally transparent that sometimes there would be
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: this relationship, a symbiotic relationship between media.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: From all dots and all the articles that such and
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: such is written, and you can see.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah so, And then Chay you asked this question, like,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: here's the mechanics of how this actually happens and how
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: these leaks take place? Is there is such a feeding
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: frenzy with the media right now? And I hate to say,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: journalistic integrity for some of these guys is not the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: same as it once was. So you mentioned the guys
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: at the top of the food chain here in Passing
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: and Rosenthal, Hayman, Nightingale and many others. And these guys
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: are excellent at what they do. They fact check all
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: of their stories. They're not looking to race to the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: finish line. But members who are not part of the
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: BBW a A. The people who are, you know, more
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: of the bloggers and the posters who don't have that
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: same journalistic integrity per se they're first to market is
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: more important than being accurate. And so what I've always
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: thought should be should be accompanying everybody's tweet out there
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: is when I state this is a rumor that you
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: should take seriously I should also write next to it
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: what my percent accuracy has been in the last fifty
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: rumors I've posted, because in some of these guys cases,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: it's like seven percent or something. But they're just trying
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: to drum up clickbait, right, and so they're putting something
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: out there. They're making it sound very compelling, but in practice,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: you know, when you talk about the guys that you mentioned,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and some of them that I just mentioned, I would
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: believe a lot of what's coming from those guys. They're
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: they're fact checking, they're having some sources that are corroborating
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: their stories. Other guys out there are probably a little
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: bit more focused on getting the story out than necessarily
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: getting the story right.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Have you ever gotten an inquiry as a general manager
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: of a team, have you ever gotten an inquiry from
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: a media member saying, hey, is there legs to this? Like,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: are you guys soon considering trading so and so? Or
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: is signing so and so in free agency? Yeah?
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: So, chet, let me give you two examples. One on
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the high integrity side, which is for the people you
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: have an exceptional relationship with in the media, they may
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: reach out to you and say, hey, would would it
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: be a mistake for me to post this, or would
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: it be a mistake for me to chase down the story?
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: And what I've always tried to tell them is yes
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: or no, you know, like and kind of I guess
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: you either are saying no to that, I mean, yes
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: it is a mistake, or you're saying nothing, which means
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: that clearly there's something to that. But those guys are
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: trying to do their jobs the best of their ability,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and ultimately, in my own market, I want my fans
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: to be as informed as they can be, and the
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: only way they can that can happen is if they
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: have some trust and faith in the media, and so
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the media can reach a lot more fans than I
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: ever can, And so I don't necessarily want that member
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: of the media who genuinely has integrity, who's taking time
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: to ask me whether or not there's any veracity to
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: what we're doing, to make sure that he's doing his
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: job the right way. The flip side of that is
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you have members who are bloggers who will literally send
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a text to twenty five members of your front office
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: asking all the same questions saying, you know, are you
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: guys close to trading so and so or so and so,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: and what happens is most of us and you feel
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: rude for doing it. You just don't respond at all.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: But they're praying upon the fact that somebody feels a
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: level of professional decorum where they have to respond to
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: that and say no, we're not doing that, or yes,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: you got it right. And then that's how these leaks
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: take place. And they're extremely innocent in nature, but it's
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: because that person is shotgunning and sending it to twenty
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: five people hoping one could.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Possibly person gives some sort of an answer that provides
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: an inkling of information in some way, shape or form
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: that they can use. Have you ever intentionally leaked anything
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: to the media. I mean, the word leak is kind
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: of a dirty word, but have you ever passed anything
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: to the media that was maybe you had you know,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: what was your goal doing so? Did you have a
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: goal in doing so?
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've been party to certainly what we talked
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: about at the beginning of this where we have occasionally
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: floated a name out there that we were aspirational of
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: trading and we weren't getting the interest we were hoping,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: and that maybe we had one team that was interested, but.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: As everyone to drum up a little more interest.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the more competition, the more value you're going to
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: get in return. I'm not sure we ever fabricated anything.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I think we were just trying to enhance a position
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that we were having.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: Sure you were putting all the shine on it. So
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: when you see a report is GM you see reports
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: of multiple bidders, does it change the way you negotiate?
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: Does it change your approach? Does it? Or do you
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: kind of just take it as it's just another you know,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: maybe it's the other team trying to gin up the
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: market here a little bit.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: It's all data points, right, And so I certainly have
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: been on the other side of the reading a post
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: saying you know, okay, let's talk about a specific example
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: for the trade deadline, which is there's been at least
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: enough rumors that would insinuate that the San Diego Padres
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: may be willing to talk about Mason Miller, which going
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: into the to that you would not necessarily think would
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: be a call worth making. But once teams see that
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: there's at least more than one post suggesting that they're
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: entertaining conversations, I guarantee you ten to fifteen teams called
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: them and said, hey, I don't know how if there's
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: truth to this rumor, but if there is and checked.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: The one last element I would like to say about
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: the whole concept of waking and speculation is sometimes we
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: lose sighted that players are human beings, and players have families,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: and they have kids, and they have wives, and so
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: what is sometimes really problematic is when people who are
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: respected members of the media emphatically state that your team
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: is talking about this type of player in a trade.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I oftentimes have gotten calls from that player directly or
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: his agent saying, you know, if you're going to you know,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: they're very emotional about that. So I think I think
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: that's something that maybe listeners don't realize is with each
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: one of these speculations, a player is involved in that speculation.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Players are involved.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: We talked about from the basketball standpoint of things a
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: week or so ago with Jaylen Brown. You know, once
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: you start talking about trading somebody, once it gets out
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: there or something, it sort of starts damaging that relationship
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: at home there with the player. And I can only
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: imagine what it does when it's kind of information that
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: slips out or shouldn't get out, or should never have
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: been spoken, or maybe even isn't truthful and what kind
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: of damage that does to the situation, And then.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: That and said, I think it's I think it's that
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: group of writers, it's the Mark Feinsans, it's it's it's Rosenthal,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: it's Passing, it's Hayman and those types of guys who
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: they get that, they're they're not they're not looking. Their
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: priority is to get it right. It's not to compromise
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: relationships with front office people, and certainly not to expose
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: players inappropriately.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Along those lines. As a player, do you typically know
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: you're being discussed before the public finds out? Is that normal? Like,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: is it possible for you to be talking about a
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: player in a trade or something and they know nothing
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: about it along with their agent, or are they usually
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: informed in some way that hey, we're looking to deal yet.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So the risk of being too out in front
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: of that From an executive standpoint is the vast majority
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: of trade discussions don't come to fruition, and so you
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: don't really want to tip your player off formally to
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: tell him, hey, listen, you're on the market, we're talking
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: to these three things. Teams just want to give you
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: a heads up because we want to do a courtesy
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: for you. But on the flip side is the other
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: side is unfortunate. When you call a player and say
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: he's been traded, all too often he already knows that
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: because somewhere it's gotten out and he's read it on
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: social media or his family has read it on social media.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: So in today's day and age, it is very hard
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: to make a trade and then tell all the players
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: before it becomes public knowledge that those players have been traded.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: So when you make these deals so often, bridges are
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: at least strained, if not burned, because players feel as
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: if you treated them with disrespect. But in practice, it's
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: really difficult to get on in front of these trades
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: and tell players everything that's going on with them because
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: the vast majority of these trades just don't actually ultimately happen.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: Gotcha, you know? And that over the past couple of
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: weeks in Detroit, we've seen Trek Scoogle come out in
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: the news and discuss some things about you know, his
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: tweaked shoulder didn't feel great in January and he didn't
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: say anything about it, and he went through arbitration. And
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: you see this in a media report after the fact,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: and here we are approaching the trade deadline. He makes
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of commentary about how, oh I want to
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: stay in Detroit, I want to do this. Do players ever,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: I guess I use this as somewhat of an example,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: and maybe this is all planned from he and his agent.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe this is all in concert with what they're trying
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: to do. Have players ever, or in even an agent
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: leaks something or said something in the media that complicates
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: negotiations or complicates a trade. Have you ever had kind.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Of a well, without question, you're you're talking to teams
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: openly about a player. The player then comes out and says,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I have no intention of being traded. They may have
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: a limited no trade clause.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Even if they just don't sebd like going to be
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: traded at all. It doesn't have to be anything about
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: a specific team or anything. They can be sitting there
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: saying I have no desire to be traded right now,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: I have you know, I want to stay right here.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Well, and chet you also alluded to something that I
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: think is a subtlety of how they can express that,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: which is all they have to say to the media
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: is hey, you know kind of my hamstrings barking a
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: little bit right now, and I'm fighting through something. And
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: so you know, that's a whole different package of players
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: right now that are going to impact this trade market.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at We've talked about him in
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: the past, but Joe Ryan would be right behind Tarik
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: School in terms of the most coveted starting pitcher in
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: the market. He's missing a second start here for this
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: season due to what is being described as arm fatigue.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Like that, as a team, when you are looking to
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: sell high in a player and get exactly what you
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: think is worth for him, it is tough for the
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: buying team there to give you everything you want against
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: the backdrop of some unknowns about his ability to pitch
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: down the stretch, because what you're overpaying for is less
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: what Joe Ryan can do for the rest of the season.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: In most regards, it's what he can do in the
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: postseason for two full postseasons. But if that's in jeopardy whatsoever,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: it's going to compromise what you're going to be willing
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: to trade for him.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: So and I'm not saying Joe Ryan's doing this or
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: not doing this, but and I know trading being traded
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: probably is not the most convenient thing for a player
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: mid season, especially if you're trying to keep your game
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: at a certain level or something along those lines. Being
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: traded cannot be the most comfortable thing. Is that kind
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: of As a fan I see that, I'm like, God,
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: this guy's just not playing along. He's not helping our
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: team out. He's doing something for him. I think it
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: was was it Garrett Cruschet or somebody a couple of
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: years ago that was making bones about having to pitch
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: in the postseason or so, I didn't want to pitch
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: over a certain amount of innings when he was with
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: the White Sox, and I think it made it very
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: difficult for them to deal him at that point in time.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: I remember reading about that. Is that is this more
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: common than we think? I mean, should we be looking
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: at every injury or on the trade deadline for guys
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: that are about to be traded? Is it that bad
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: to be traded? I mean, I would think they'd want
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: to go play for a team that's winning. Right.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Well, think about your career path, your walk of life
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: as you're listening to this, and imagine you've set up
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: your family and you're living in Pittsburgh, and generations of
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: your family live in Pittsburgh. And then somebody calls you
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: some day and says, oh, by the way, you're now
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: working in Seattle and you have to be there tomorrow.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: And so, as you mentioned cheded, it's like it's massively
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: disruptive to these guys' lives. Right now, it's probably a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: little less so because it's in the summer, but fastward
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: two to three weeks, school's about to start, so you're
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: you're getting traded and and oh, by the way, like
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: you have to find new schools for you means in.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Their family, Yeah, that that cannot be terribly And how
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: does it affect their play? I mean, if there if
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: you're a guy who's in a contract year, which a
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: lot of guys who are getting traded are, right, if
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: you're a guy in a contract year and you're kind
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: of trying to keep your game at a certain lay
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: and maybe you're fighting it a little bit, I mean,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: we could I keep bringing school up as an example,
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: but he's kind of in this boat right now. Right
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: he's had a little bit of a challenging season for himself.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Is getting traded something that you know, you kind of
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: expect a player to drop off a little bit after
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: trade due to those types of adjustments, or is that
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: unrealistic to think that that's a problem.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: So I think it really depends on the mental resolve
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: of the player. But keep in mind, when we acquire players,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: we're acquiring them to increase our ability to make the playoffs.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: In other words, we're counting on them materially changed the
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: competitive landscape for our club. That said, we tell every
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: one of these guys, hey, just be yourself. We're not
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: asking you to be any more than yourself than you
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: But in practice, they know that they are responsible for
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: elevating the level of play of the team. So very
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: few of these guys have the mental consistency to come
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: into that situation and stick to their same routines that
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: they would have if they stayed with their previous team.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: They try to be more than what they can be.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: That's when I think they put themselves at risk. And
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: then there's a subset of players. We're all hunting relievers
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: at the deadline. Everybody wants to acquire a reliever, but
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: keep in mind the relievers who are performing extremely well
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: for other teams who may be willing to trade them.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: They're performing well because they've been used exhaustively, so you're
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: getting the backside of whatever they have left in the tank.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: And keep in mind, most relievers aren't going to throw
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: much more than sixty five to seventy five innings. If
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: you're acquiring a guy who's had an exceptional fifty two
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: innings already, they don't have much left in the tank.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: So those guys are also trying to sprint to the
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: finish line. Their finish line may just be something shy
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs or even the end of the regular season.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Folks, when we come back, we're going to expand on
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: this little conversation, see if we can't knock out a
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: few more of these myths and maybe get into some
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: other issues that could affect the trade deadline, financial issues
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: and whatnot with teams when we return on Rosters to Rings.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to Rosters to Rings. Chet As we are
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: six days away from the trade deadline, it's remarkable how
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: much parity there is in the league right now you
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: look at it. I think there are only six teams
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: that are more than five and a half games out
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: of a wild card. That means twenty four teams are
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: technically still alive in kicking here and then I think
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: you could argue one of the biggest challenges we're going
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: to see at this trade deadline is there aren't as
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: many clear devout sellers devout buyers. It's mostly teams that
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: are going to buy and sell. I'm going I'm going
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: to quote something that I heard earlier today on MLB
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Network when they were interviewing Clayton McCullough, the manager of
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the Miami Marlins, and they asked him, are you guys
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: buying or selling? And he said, yes, we're doing both.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: And I don't think he was trying to act koy there.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I think that is the actual answer most teams are
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: giving when when we're calling teams right now and checking
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: in on them, they are talking about building for the
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: today and for the tomorrow. It's a remarkable state of
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: affairs right now in the game.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Well, we have so many teams now, fad that are
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: in contention right like you got so many teams within
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: like five and a half of a wild card spot.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: This is the expansion of the postseason helps this along,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: keeps more teams you know, in the race midway through
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: the year here, and I think we're seeing, we're seeing
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: the results of expanding that postseason, and I'm I do wonder, though,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: is there reality in this? You know, we've heard about
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: it with the Tigers threading the needle. You know, they
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: trade school, but they're they want pieces to still help
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: them this season, to potentially make that postseason run. That
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: they're still four and a half five and a half
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: games out, like it seems like the rest of the
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: league or is threading the needle something that's not really realistic.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know how realistic we can be when we
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: say we're removing our top starter, our ace and we're
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: going to fill it in with maybe an outfield or
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: something like that just seems like it would cause a
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: ripple effect, maybe even through the clubhouse. A lot of
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: guys sitting around saying, are we trying to win, We're
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: trying to lose? What are we doing?
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: I think that matters, I really do. I think sometimes
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: we reduce these decisions to back of an envelope, to
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: a model output, and I think sometimes we lose sight
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: of the fact that one of our primary constituents are
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: our players. And I think when you don't do something
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: in the trade deadline, when your team's competitive or dare
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I say, when you subtract a major piece when you
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: could be competitive. I think it's sends a message to
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: your clubhouse, and sometimes your clubhouse is highly motivated by that,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: but they're motivated it to prove you wrong. I think
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: that's a motivation that burns very hot. That the Detroit
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Tigers did this a couple of years back, where they
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: actually sold and they made the playoffs, that's very rare.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Now when you're talking about the needle that Scott Harris
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: and the Detroit Tigers have to thread here. This is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: such a precision operation because in most cases you would
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: just hold on to Tarik Skoogle, you would probably make
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: him a qualifying offer. You get a draft picked. Well,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: a few things are happening here. First of all, he's
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: a transcendent player. Just getting one draft pick for him
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: almost seems like malfeasance for Scott Harrison. So he's looking
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: at and saying, right now, not only could I start
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: pass that, I could probably get the equivalent of three
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: or four draft picks. You know, quality level with the
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: players you could acquire two is we're about to have
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: a new collective bargaining agreement We're not even perfectly sure
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: how qualifying offers and draft pick compensation is going to
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: work in the.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: Next an interesting point, do we I mean, how much
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: of that is playing into this too?
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: So we don't know. We don't know. So on one
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: side of the coin, Scott Harris may be trying to
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: buy and sell, but anytime you're selling a guy of
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the magnitude of to Reek Schooble, it's going to look
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: like a sell more than a bye for sure. So
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a really, really tough thing
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: to happen. And the last thing I'll say, Chet is
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: because of everything you're saying, we've all started gravitating to
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: making the majority of these deals right within the hour
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: of the deadline. The best deals you get are right
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: at the deadline. But it's also because people are trying
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: to gain more information. With only six teams being outside
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: of the five and a half game window of a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: wild card, everybody wants to wait till the last minute
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: to ultimately make these decisions. Furthermore, with some star caliber
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: players out there, to Reik' scouble being the headliner of
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: that group as well, we talked about Mason Miller and
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: previous episodes as well. Is everyone is going to go
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: big game hunting until they know they can't acquire the
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: big game before they to somebody else. All these things
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: that are going to I think make it highly more
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: likely that the preponderance of deals are going to be
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: made within thirty to sixty minutes of the actual deadline
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: on August third.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: So I've been looking here a little bit at the
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: playoff picture of the NL is much more defined right now.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Right we've got what five teams that look like they're
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: in control at this point and are going to be
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. They get better than ninety percent chance
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: of a playoff run. Here we've got the AL, which
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: is kind of a mess. I mean, it's just a
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: hodgepodge of average at this juncture at best, a few
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: teams that are pushing ahead of everybody else. But really
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: you look at like the AL central fangrafts projections have
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: the Guardians at eighty one and a half wins, White
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Sox at eighty one wins, Twins at eighty wins, and
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: the Tigers at seventy nine wins. You have a two
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: and a half game separation there between the Guardians and
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: the Tigers. And you know, the Royals are out fine,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: but at least four teams in the AL Central that
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: are still thinking they can be in the postseason right now,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: and don't stop there. I mean, the West is the
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: exact same.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: The Rangers are projected to have eighty three wins, the
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Mariners eighty two, and the Astros eighty. I mean, it's
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: amazing the congestion in those two divisions, but also it's
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: amazing how few wins that fangrasts are projecting will help
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: a team win their division.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: There.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Those would be epically low win totals. If that's how
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: it ultimately plays out, there probably will be some changes
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: made and some team will get hot down the stretch.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: But if that holds, that would be close to record
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: setting in terms of two teams in the same league
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: winning divisions with eighty one and eighty three.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Wins or eighty three wins. Yeah, this feels like the
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: AFC South every season right now for the entire American league.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: In the NFL, it's like the AFC South. You can
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: make a playoff with like a five hundred records somehow,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: and teams with eleven or twelve wins get bounced on
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: the other side of the Ledger. But yeah, so I
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: think you know, every other division outside of those two
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: projecting at least a ninety game winner, which is what
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: we would expect for a postseason birth. But you've got
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: so many surprises across the boarder. Nobody picked the White
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: Sox to be as good as they are, Let's be honest.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: That's that's a complete shock. They were supposed to finish
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: last with a two chance of making the playoffs. You know,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: the Rays were picked to finish last. They they had
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: minimal chance of making the playoffs. They now I'm a
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: ninety eight percent chance of making the playoffs. You get
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: the Brewers were finished to pick third. I know you
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: work for them, and I know you're not gonna say anything.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I think that's in there. I think I still line
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: the Brewers up with the Guardians, that there are death
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: taxes and the Brewers will be in the playoffs every year.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: It seems, along with the Guardians, like they're just doing
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: something right with less in those very weak NL Central
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Aneal Central divisions where they're kind of rising to the
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: top each season and regardless of what they have in
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: their lineup. I mean, I failed to see the moves
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: they make and they still end up at the top.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: So while those teams were paid, you know, Guardians are
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: picked to finish fourth. I this is where me and
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Fangrafts may have some issues. I don't know, what do you?
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here? Is this kind of like
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: a are we seeing this hodgepot or this this massive average?
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Because some teams have overachieved that shouldn't have and some
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: teams that should have achieved are underachieving.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Usually what we see every year is one or two
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: teams makes the playoffs that weren't projected to do so,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: one or two teams that were prohibitive favorites to make
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. See teams like the Mets and maybe the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Tigers and the Blue Jays don't make the playoffs. This
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: would be relatively unprecedented when you have two teams that
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: were picked to finish and last in the White Sox
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: and Rays. If they indeed finish in first, I think
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of season left to be played, so
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: that may not ultimately come to pass. The Brewers and Guardians,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: I think are very interesting teams. I think the Rays
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: fall in this category as well, where just the raw talent,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: which is what these systems are based on. It's the talent,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: it's the strength of schedule, and those sorts of things
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: that go into their projections of how many what your
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: percent chances to win your division or be in the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: playoffs because you get into the wild card. I don't
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: think it perfectly accounts for the Guardians, Brewers, and Rays.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Those three teams have historically gotten the most out of
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: their talent. They're doing things at different levels that I
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: think aren't perfectly empirically accounted for in some of these models.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: And to your point, Chet, it's almost like you would
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: always take the over on those three teams because they're
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: just handling their business a little bit differently than most
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: that models haven't yet caught up to exactly what they're doing,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: but they're just getting a little bit more out of
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: their talent. And it's the proverbial the some of the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: parts are just a little bit better. They're not star
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: driven teams. What they are is they're just exceptionally versatile.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: One through twenty six.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: So we talked about the Al West there for a
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: little bit and kind of the jumble of teams fighting
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: for supremacy in that division, and we want to hone
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: in on one of them that we did the Red Sox.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Two weeks ago we did the Padres. What about the
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle Mariners. We got a team here who has never
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: been to the World Series. They're one of five franchisees,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: one of five franchises who have never won a World Series.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: They were picked to finish first in the AL West,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: and last year they made all the way to the
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: ALCS and here they are a game and a half out.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so chet, I think they you know, things to
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: consider here, as they were preseason given a sixty percent
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: chance to win their division. Keep in mind that was
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the second best division odds in the major leagues, only
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: behind the Dodgers. The Dodgers were at ninety percent. No
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: other team was given more than a forty five percent
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: chance to win their division. So I would say that
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: they were considered a prohibitive favorite to win their division.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: I think there was such a rate of terror by
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: first Anaheim Angels, then a little briefly by the Oakland Athletics,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: then the Texas Rangers, than the Houston Astros. It felt
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: like it was the Mariner's time. After the run by
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: the Houston Astros, they finally ran past him this past year.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: They end up winning the division. I think people thought
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: the window was wide open, based in large part on
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: the pitching that you just referenced. Their pitching has been
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: excellent over the years. Their offense has fallen off, and
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: it really it really is in a few players case.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: So yes, Aohennio Suarez, who was a trade deadline acquisition,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't return, Jorge Polanco, who had a great season for
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: them last year, does not return. But where they've really
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: struggled is unfortunately two players, and cal Ralely had a
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: MVP caliber season last year, ends up becoming the runner
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: up he was. He won the Home Run Derby. He
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: was a prominent player at the All Star Game last year.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: He had a remarkable one to sixty one WRC plus
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: last year, which just for the listeners to understand, he
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: was sixty one percent better than league average. He had
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: a five eighty nine slugging percentage, he said a rec
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: for home runs by a catcher. This year, he's got
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: a sixty nine WRC plus, which means he's thirty one
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: percent below league average. This year, he's hitting won sixty five.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: That five to eighty nine secing percentage has dwindled to
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: three hundred. It's a remarkable check when you look at
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: this team and then they invested ninety two million dollars
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: in Josh to retain Josh Naylor, and he's having a
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: fine season, but he's also below league gabage when he
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: was thirty seven percent above league gaverage for them last year.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: When you look at their performance relative to their competition,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: they are worst at catcher in first base. These are
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: two of their three highest paid players. The third is
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Luis Castillo, who is also really struggling as a starting pitcher.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's a problem for them. Their three highest
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: paid players on a team that has a kind of
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack payroll are not performing at all yet.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: So what would you look for from the Seattle Mariners
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: at this year's trade deadline to push them over the hump?
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: They obviously need some offense. They've gone from fourth to
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: six tenth. You talked about Cal Raleigh, he dropped off.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: I think I personally I loved watching his run last year.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: I thought it was great. But I think personally everybody
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: kind of knew like Cal may be dropping off just
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit off of that at least we all
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: expected some res like, you can't repeat what he did.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: You're not going to repeat what he did two years
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: in a row. Nayler somewhat of a disappointment there. They
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: went out and spent some money and he's been somewhat
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: of a disappointment. Uh what do you think they need
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: to go out and grab here? They ranked pretty low. Catcher,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: first base, shortstop, third base, right field. These are all
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: power hitting positions too, by the way.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean that's a great point. Ched and
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: that's what they did last year. They went and acquired Nayler,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: They acquired Aohennio Suarez to give them some thump in
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the middle of their order. Well, they may be back
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: exactly at that same table trying to order that same meal.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I think they've got some things coming here. So you
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: have to count on Raleigh and Nailer bouncing back. Brendan Donovan,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: who was a very good player for them in the
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: beginning part of the season, should be getting healthy now.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: He should help at third base. So those are three
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: of the spots. I think they're going to stick with
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: their rookie Emerson at shortstop. I don't see a lot
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: of changes being made there. It leaves right field or
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: corner outfield is a place where they could really make
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: some gains. I think the things that Mariner fans should
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: be ecstatic about is a few things. One is Jerry
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Depoto's at the helm. Jerry Depoto, since his being hired
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen, has led the major leagues in trades
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: just eking out San Diego's Aj Preller and Tampa Bay's
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Andrew Friedman slash Eric Neander. This guy is hyper creative.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: He's not going to miss an opportunity to try to win.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: And then they have.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Something that every team covets. They have six major league
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers at the major league level. They're rotating six
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: guys through a rotation they're piggybacking, and they have two
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: premium prospects at Triple A, Kate Anderson and Ryan Sloan.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Those two guys are considered top ten prospects in the game.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: They so they gives them eight major league ready starting
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: pitchers from which they can trade if they so desire.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: In addition, they have six of the top one hundred
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: prospects in the game, all ranked quite frankly in the
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: top sixty. So they're working from an area of surplus
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: both in starting pitching and high end prospect caliber players.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: So I think if there's any team out there that
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: may do something pretty dramatic in terms of acquiring a bet,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: it may be the Seattle Mariners. And they have the
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: wherewithal to do it, and they have the right GM
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: to be at the helm of it.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Fascinating. So do you feel that, I mean, their bottom
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: of the league in defense right now, and they're middle
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: of the league in offense. Last year they were twenty
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: six in defense and made the World Series. Like right now,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: they're going to prioritize that hitting defense will will just
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: be an afterthought or a kind of a nice little
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: add on if they can, if they can add there, correct,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: is that kind.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Of well should I I hate to say as good
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: as their defense, I mean they're they're pitching is their
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: defense doesn't get tested quite as natural. So in addition
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to having great strakeout pitchers, and if they decide to
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: bring up Sloan and Anderson, that will only get better.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: The best defense is great pitching. Is that what you're.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Making say exactly when guys swing and miss, you don't
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: have to defend a whole lot. And it's remarkable what
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: they're doing suppressing walks. They have five of their six
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers right now are walking fewer than two point
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: two guys per nine innings, which is a remarkably elite level.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: They're doing it every night. So there's not a lot
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: of extra base runners on the bass pass. There's a
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: lot of swing and miss that really deemphasizes the fact
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: that their defense may be a little bit substandard. Chet
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: is a diehard Chicago Cubs fan. We would be remiss
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: in not at least going over your beloved Cubs, your
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: second love after the Detroit Tigers, a team that's a
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: little bit less compl maybe then some of the teams
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: that we've gone over. This one's a little bit more straightforward. Yes,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: they were preseason picked to win the Annal Central. They
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: sit in second place, They're still very competitive in that division,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: and they still have a ninety percent chance to make
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. How are you feeling about your Cubs as
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: we come up approaching the trade deadline.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: So here's a team that I had projected might actually
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: be better than the Brewers this season that even though
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: I said the Brewers end up being up at the
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: top of the NL Central, they were so good with
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: kind of acquiring pieces. They went out and got Edward Cabrera,
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: they went out and got Alex Bragman. Everybody is very
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: excited to see these moves, Okay. And they had a guy,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: a young guy coming back in Kate Horton, and he's
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: kind of the beginning of some of the challenges that
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are going to see, i think coming down
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: the last half of the season. Here Kate Horton goes
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: out with Tommy John surgery, major blow. Okay, You've got Boyd, Tyan, Cabrera,
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Ben Brown, all dealing with injuries this season. They're down to,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: you know, a starting five that certainly was not They
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: just let go of Jameson Tyan designated for assignment. He's
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: at the end of a very expensive contract for them.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: They they're they're one of these teams that need so
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: much in their starting pitching right now. I'm a little
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: concerned with will they be able to fill all those
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: gaps at the trade deadline? Would they be a team
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: to go after a Trek Scouoble or a Joe Ryan.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: And you know, with Ryan being injured, is he going
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: to get traded? What are they going to have available
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: out there? For them to go after. I just don't
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: see a team built the way they're built playing in
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: Wrigley Field, playing down this stretch in the NL Central,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: which will be competitive till the end, I'm sure with
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: with a weekend starting rotation like that, and you know,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: and their their pen isn't isn't top notch Okay, I
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: do have concerns as to how long they can go
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: on this kind of this kind of patchwork starting rotation.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: They're going to need a lot of help during the
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: trade deadline. Do you see anybody they could be going after?
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, So, you know, I think a few considerations here
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: for the Cubs. One is daverly emerged. We just talked
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: about the Mariners and their defense isn't great. Well, their
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: defense maybe doesn't have to be great because they're pitching
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: so good. Well, the Cubs defense does need to be
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: great because their pitching hasn't been quite as good due
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: to the health issues. Justin Steele, I think, is another
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: guy who maybe was heavily counted.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Still still rehabbing, Yeah.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Still rehabing. And so the good news for the Cubs
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: is they have created the most war offensively of any
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: team in the major leagues. And that's on the strength
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: of the fact that they're the third best offensive team,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: they're the third best defensive team. Combined, that makes them
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: the best overall offensive unit in the game. So what
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: that says to me as an executive, which would be
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: very helpful, is it's crystal clear what they need to do.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: All nine positions are producing above league average performance. They
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: need to go get some starting pitchers. They need to
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: go get some relievers. There's two ways to do this.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: One is they can, if they so desire, load up
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: their pen and try to shorten the game as best
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: they can. And so what that would look like in
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: the playoffs is literally the starting pitcher may go three
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: to four innings and then they're going to just try
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: to make sure that everyone who they bring out of
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: the bullpen is so difficult to hit that they can
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: get through the games. Another thing that is interesting to
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: me is the wealth of pitching on this market, the
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers. If all of these teams still stay available
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: to have discussions with and don't pull themselves out, there's
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: more starting pitching on this market than there ever once was.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: And furthermore, we just talked about the Mariners and how
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: creative they may get with trading a major league ready
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher for major league ready starting position players. Well,
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: there's no team right now in those position players than
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: the Cubs are, and there's no team that needs pitching
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: more than the Cubs do. Could they be a partner
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: with the Seattle Mariners potentially in a Emerson Hancock deal,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: or is there a different type of deal to get
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: a veteran who is maybe star is setting a little bit,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: but is a veteran nonetheless in a Luis Castillo as
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: a stabilizer a floor raiser for them, or could they
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: possibly access one of those young guys if they are
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: willing to put one of their better position players in play.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: They're one of the very few teams who may be
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: able to sacrifice a little bit of offense in the
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: name of trying to shore up their pitching. But there
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: will be a lot of opportunities for them to address
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: their pitching here in the next six days.
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: I was just going to say, on the other side
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: of this coin is who are the Cubs giving up?
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: Because they don't have as much prospect firepower probably as
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: they need, so they would you give up? You know
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: you've got guys like Ian happen. Say a Suzuki that're
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: in their last year of a deal right now, Okay,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: they're going to be free agents. Is this the type
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: of thing where maybe a I don't know, Detroit Tigers
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: comes along who's trying to thread the needle and get
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: some offensive power. Would they flip Scooble over for like
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: a Kevin al Kantara prospect level guy, plus maybe grab
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: like Saya Suzuki for the for the run out the
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: rest of the season.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: Here is that I think these are the exact conversations
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: that this that this new found with everybody still being competitive.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: We said it only six teams outside of the five
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: and a half games from a wild card. We have
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: to talk buyers and buyers, winners and winners talking to
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: each other. The only way these deals work is if
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: you're open minded. I hate to say, to harm yourself
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: in one area to help yourself in another and hope
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: that the net effect of that is that you got
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: better as a team. Otherwise you're relegated to really only
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: talking to five or six teams out there who know
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: they're trying to sell and there's a finite amount of
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: what they're willing to sell or capable of selling, or
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: that's appealing to sell. That's the reason they're so far
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: out of first place right now.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: I mean I have to wonder, are there any other
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: teams in contention right now for a postseason birth that
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: are twenty sixth in pitching or lower? No way, I
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: mean that's an interesting start pitching stat for a team
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: that has a ninety percent chance to make the playoffs.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: It reeks of getting into the wild card, or getting
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: into a wild card and losing. I mean, that's you
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: don't have enough pitching to eat through it against a
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: good offense.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: I think another trade partner that is particularly intriguing to
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: me about the Cubs could be a team like the
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: San Francisco Giants. They are one of the teams that's
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: more than five and a half out. They do have
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: some established starting pitching there that they may be willing
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: to talk about yet to be determined. But whether that's
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: a Robbie Ray on a high end, it's a Logan web.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: The Cubs will have players, and that may be more
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: of a conventional trading prospects for now talent. You don't
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: have to rob Peter to pay Paul, So I'm quite
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: certain that Jed Hoyer, he's one of the best in
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: the game. Is getting on the phone. He's calling all
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: the sellers to see if there's there's room. Is there
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: a Seth Lugo dealer, Is there a Michael Waka deal
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: from Kansas City to kind of like stabilize and then
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: can you access one of these guys who can raise
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: the ceiling for you, a guy who could go toe
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: to toe with some of these teams in game one,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: because if you do, the offense is there, the defense
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: is there. If the pitching is at least average, if
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: not slightly above, you've got a puncher's chance to win
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. But as you mentioned, sitting with the twenty
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: six best pitching that is going to come up to
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: haunt you at some point in the playoffs, it probably
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: will cut your season short.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: Do you think that this reflects I mean, they've had
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of injuries. We've talked about this also with
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: the Tigers and some other teams this season, and you
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: have these injury spades, you have the like five, six, seven,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: eight guys going down injured, especially from one unit of
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: the team like they have with their starting pitching. Is
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: is this something you can really put on a front
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: office at the end of the day. I mean, we
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: have heard a few local reporters and their thoughts on
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: tweedledee and tweedledumb and whatnot along those lines. Maybe is
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: that unfair to put this on them that they don't
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: have more firepower in their starting staff at this point?
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Well and check you just you named at the outset
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: of the segment five to six starting pitchers who are hurt.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: None of us is that deep where we can sustain
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: that type of you know storm. So I think there
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: is a risk profile each executive is willing to assume
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: when you know, sometimes we are hunting high ceilings, and
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: with high ceilings sometimes comes very shaky floors. There are
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: other teams that build their pitching staff with extremely high
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: floors but very low ceilings, and they're just going to
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: make sure we're at least average, if not slightly above average.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: So I would have to look a little bit closer
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: at their historical you know, risk profile, because some of
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: that is on the decision maker for sure, but in practice,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: none of us can have a crystal ball. The fact
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: that these guys keep throwing harder and harder, and they're
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: throwing more and more, you know, torque on their arm
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: with with secondary pitches, it's just inevitable that pitchers are
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: going to get hurt. Unfortunately, the fact that it's happening
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: in the magnitude it's happening for the Cubs is really
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: unfortunate for them. But as somebody who's employed by the
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers right now, it's okay with us.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: I do I do wonder. You know, a lot of
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: their offense and a lot of their hitting comes from power,
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: and they don't. They don't manufacture as many runs as
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: you'd like to see in a postseason team either. So
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: while while I think you know, we looked at Seattle,
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: we talked about their weakness being defense, we figured the
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: best defense is a good pitching staff. They need to
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: concentrate on that offense here. While you'd love to have
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: a couple of players in that lineup that manufacturer runs
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: a little more and don't rely so much on power,
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: their starting pitching is such a such a deficit that
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: they have to address that here along with their bullpen
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: for that matter, which may work out. If they get
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: some starting pitching, they might be able to shift a
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: few guys into that bullpen who knows, well, that's interesting.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: I'll be interested to see how they do going ahead
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: here into the into the season. I personally just watching them.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: I debate whether they will hold on to that wild
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: card spot. I am not a hard such if they
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: do not address their starting pitching in a major way,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: I don't see how down the dog days of the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: season here in August and whatnot, that they're going to
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: be able to keep it going. But you know, I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: pull for them, so we'll see what happens.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: It will be a fascinating next six days and that
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: will lead into a tremendous sprint to the finish line.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: You know, Chet, As they always say, base running a
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: defense tend not to slump. Hitting and pitching, Ken as
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: you mentioned, the Cubs are a little bit more dependent
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: on power. The good news is they've got great defense
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: that should not slump for them. They need to stabilize
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: that pitching staff to have a real chance, and what
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: is a top heavy National league, it's going to be
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: a very tough road to hoe. Even if they're sitting
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: with the number one wildcard spot, you're most likely going
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: to face a team like Philadelphia in the first round,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: and then oh, by the way, if you win that,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: you may end up getting to draw the Dodgers in
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: round two. And if you win that, you may Yeah,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: you're going to face off against the Braves or the Brewers,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: and that's going to be a challenge.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: And everybody's right to figure out how to beat the Dodgers.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Dad right, Well, in first things first, they're going to
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: have to get out of that first round. Whoever they
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: play will be a daunting factor.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: Well, thank you
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Listeners, as always, join us this Thursday and every Thursday
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: on Rosters to Ruins