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Two Forecasts: Climate Models, AI Weather and What Is Certain
Fictional modeller Rosalind Achterberg explains two disagreeing storm forecasts, one physics-based and one AI, to reinsurance analyst Teodor Varga, along with his bigger question: can AI tell him the climate of 2075? We cover weather versus climate, Lorenz and chaos, how models are built, ERA5 reanalysis, parameterisation and clouds, climate sensitivity from Arrhenius to IPCC AR6, ensembles and CMIP, the 1987 Great Storm, GraphCast and GenCast results, ECMWF's AIFS going operational, hybrid models such as NeuralGCM, scenarios, model evaluation including Hansen 1988 and Pinatubo, what is…
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