Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Milwaukee Broomers? | NHL & MLB ALCS & NLCS & NCAA Football & NFL | 10/15/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Milwaukee Broomers? | NHL & MLB ALCS & NLCS & NCAA Football & NFL | 10/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Not.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: you out That fella fights hard But he don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: What can you say? I mean, I believe they took
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: a 2-1 lead in the sixth inning. So, yeah, they
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: were down 1-0 at the end of five. I expected
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: them to score off of Gasser. They didn't. I think
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: he went five scoreless, if I'm not mistaken. And then
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Snell lost it in the seventh inning, I think, is
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: where he really lost the game. Really, it was that
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Bowers home run that really did it. And Milwaukee swung
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: the game right back, and they wound up winning. Not
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: sad about that because I don't like the Dodgers. So
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: we'll talk about game four today and see if the
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: Dodgers can hold off elimination. I will not have a
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: play in that game. Baseball playoffs, I mean, I think
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: we're basically like 500, so probably a loser in baseball
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: playoffs this year. Not thrilled about that. We can still
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: get back on the right side if I find a
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: good play to make, but we're really just going to
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: have the World Series left and I guess the remainder
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: of this the remainder of the ALCS pretty much. We
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: did get Missouri State correct. That was the right call.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: They were winning repeatedly in the game. I think they
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: were only losing at one point in the game when
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: they were down 7-6, and that was only because their
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: first two scoring drives wound up being field goals. They
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: flipped it right back and took the lead back with
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: a two-point conversion as well, and then they never trailed again.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: It was back and forth, up seven, tied, up seven, tied,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: and then they wound up winning with a field goal
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: right at the end of the game. A little bit
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: stupid at the end, though. They were all the way
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: down near the goal line and they were trying to
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: run as much clock as possible to try to basically
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: kick the winning field goal with so little time left
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: that Kennesaw wasn't going to be able to do anything
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: with the ball, which it makes sense. I mean, you
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: don't want to score too fast and give them over
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: a minute of time left because anything could really happen there.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? so it made sense, but
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: what didn't make sense is, I think it was the
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: second down play, I was watching the game, shout out
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: to Justin, by the way, who's sometimes in the chat,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: he is one of the camera people for Missouri State,
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: he was a sideline camera, he told me, at that game,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: so shout out to him, Missouri State, his team got
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: the win, and got the win for us, so I
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: like that, the outright win as well, so if you
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: play the money line, which I recommend playing like 10%
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: of it on the money line, then you get that
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: little extra there especially when it's a small underdog like
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: that uh the chances if you think they're going to
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: cover there's a pretty good chance they're going to win
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: the game and they did but uh the second down
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: play there on that final drive I don't know what
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: they were thinking dude I don't know if it's a
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: coaching thing or just you know the players or if
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: I think it's kind of both kind of like the
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Jaden Daniels thing the other day where he didn't give
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: them time to kick what would have been a winning
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: field goal to win that game I dude and then
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: Daniels put all the blame on the coach and And
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: everybody's mad at him for that. And I kind of
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: agree in a way, like if you're the leader of
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: the team and you're a player like that, you need
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: to take responsibility for your part of that. Like, yeah,
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: I should have done something differently here. But I also
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: would agree that the coach is largely at fault for
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: something like that because it's like a fundamentals thing that
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: he is not ingrained in his players. You know what
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: I mean? So it's both. Like the fault goes both
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: ways there. You know what I mean? And if many
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: players on your one team are doing that, There's definitely
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: a coaching problem there. So both are at fault. Last
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: night's game, probably the same thing. Probably the coach and
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: the quarterback were both at fault. But it was just
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: this weird play where they snapped it to the quarterback,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: and instead of just kneeling or whatever, like, you know,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: get down, kneel, because you're trying to set up the
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: field goal. They were, like, right near the goal line,
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: so it's going to be a chip shot field goal.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: Just kneel on the hash mark that you want, whatever.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: But instead... He didn't get down, and he got nailed
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: by the defense. Why would you put yourself in that position?
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: He could have fumbled the football over. He could have
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: gotten hurt. It made no sense. I think that was
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: that backup quarterback that's in there for Missouri State. I
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: don't know. But then it was hilarious because.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: I don't even think this is the right call really
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: but the refs got together and they wound up calling
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: they called targeting on the defense so it gave Missouri
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: State a first down and then they were able to
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: run the clock literally all the way down so they
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: were just going to kick a field goal with no
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: time left and that's what they did and they made
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: it obviously it was so stupid though I don't know
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: what that was Tower Gang NPC what's up yeah thanks
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: for hanging out alright uh Let's get into today, man.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: Rambling too much about yesterday. We have a little bit
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: of a bigger board today because of hockey. I've won
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: a hockey play, and it's very strange that this hockey
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: game is not even listed on this board here. I
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: have no idea why, but I guess if you're looking
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: at the board, you can kind of figure out what
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: game that's going to be then. Buffalo at Toronto is
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: the first game to talk about here. This is not
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: the game that I'm talking about as far as the
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: play is concerned. Toronto, they're returning home, so you know
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: I talk about how negative that is. They've been away
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: for a week. They went out to Vegas, Colorado, Utah.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: Tough road trip. All three of those teams are good,
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: and they played well in every single game. Both losses,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: they took over by one goal. One was a shootout
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: against Vegas. They beat Colorado. So coming back for a
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: big road trip like that seems like a negative to me.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: You've got to get back to home life. It can
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: be a definite distraction. I hesitate a little bit, though,
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: because Buffalo... is a team that made the playoffs last year.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: They're sort of-ish a rival to Toronto because of their
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: geographic proximity to each other. So, you know, I don't
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: necessarily want to say they're going to overlook Buffalo here,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: but I do think Buffalo is in a bad spot too, though,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: and that's kind of the other thing I don't like
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: about this game. Buffalo is having this game sandwiched in
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: between the team that knocked them out of the playoffs
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: last year, which is Montreal. They just failed to beat
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: Montreal on Tuesday in a shootout. Big game for Buffalo because, again,
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: it's the team that you want revenge against, the team
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: that eliminated you and ended your season last year, and
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: they play Montreal again next. So they're in a Montreal
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: smoked meat sandwich here in this one. Definitely possible that
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: they overlook this Toronto team. It hasn't really been that great.
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: So I don't like the spot for either team here.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: I think Buffalo put more weight into trying to beat Montreal.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in on Toronto here, although they're
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: public as well. 80% of tickets, 91% of the cash
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: on them. They're around a minus 120 favorite here. I
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: might be looking towards the over because, again, I talk
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: about how when teams are in bad spots, I think
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: it tends to primarily take effect on the defense where
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: the focus can kind of lapse on the defense and play.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: like tiredness can also kind of affect that. And it
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: looks like the money is coming into the over and
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: it is a high total dude. It's almost seven. That's
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: one of the highest totals you'll see in hockey. It's
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: a juice six and a half to the over 80%
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: of the tickets, 93% of the cash on the over.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, I, that's probably how I would play that
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: if I was really going to play that game would
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: be to play the over, but I know I have
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: not jumped into NHL totals this year. We're winning in
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: the NHL. So by just going with my sides and
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: that's what I'm, focusing on so whatever but i'll you
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: know i'm gonna keep checking to see if my total
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: reads are correct and maybe we'll start doing that again
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: but um for now i'm not going to be doing
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: that islanders at ottawa ottawa they're coming up a horrible
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: loss to the blues so ottawa's going to be the
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: better team here in this game against the islanders but
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: sometimes the better team if you're going to get them
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: in a focused spot sometimes that is the way to
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: look and maybe that is the case here because they're
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: coming up a gross loss at home to st louis 7-2,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: anytime you lose like that, a lot of times you're
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: going to bounce back after that. The Islanders at least
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: have somewhat of a reasonable record so far too, so
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: maybe you don't totally overlook them here. And the other
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: good thing for Ottawa is Omar is probably going to
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: be back in net here, and he's their primary goalie.
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: He's obviously their better goalie. Erson has played twice, and
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: those were Ottawa's two losses, by the way. Ottawa's 5-2,
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Olmark was the goalie in all five wins. Urson was
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: the goalie in both losses. Switching back to Olmark, looks
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: like it should help them significantly. As far as the
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: Islanders are concerned, they just beat Vancouver. Not really a
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: big deal. Vancouver's not a good team. islanders beat them
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip i don't think they're going to
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: overlook ottawa here either it looks like probably a focus
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: spot here starting a quick road trip i guess i
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: always have to look now because it's like oh it's
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: a two-game road trip is this the islanders dad trip
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: you know what i mean and it's hard to find
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: that information um it looks like they didn't do one
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: last year the last time they did one was uh
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: december 2025 according to this so i don't know Or no,
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: that would have been last year, but I guess they
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: have not announced this year's if there is one. Maybe
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: this isn't it, though. I always look because the dad
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: trip is always a motivator, and it's usually a two-game
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: road trip. That was a real angle when it first
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: started in hockey, where what it is is the team
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: actually brings... The players bring their fathers on the trip
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: with them. It's usually a two-game road trip, and it
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: usually really motivates them, especially in the first of the
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: two games, so... That's something to keep an eye on.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: Whenever I see a two-game road trip, I basically have
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: to try to figure out, is this the dad trip?
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: It looks like it's not here, but who knows? I
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: won't be playing this game. I think I would probably
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: lean towards Ottawa, though. Better team with their better goalie
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: back in net. The money does not agree at all, though.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: Ottawa dropped from minus 160 basically down to minus 150.
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: Some real money looks like it is playing the Islanders here.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: 80% of tickets on Ottawa, 53% of the cash on
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: the Islanders. It looks like it's going to be both
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: teams being focused here. But when I think that's the case,
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: I usually think that the better team is going to
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: be the team that wins out, which is Ottawa. And
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to fade an undefeated Omar here either. So,
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, eventually he's going to take a loss somewhere. But,
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, he's not somebody I really want
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: to fade here right now. All right, Seattle at Tampa Bay.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is a massive favorite here, so that should
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: tell you something. Oh, Tampa Bay's 4-2. Seattle's 5-2. Well,
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: how is Tampa Bay like a minus 250-something favorite? Yeah, well,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are telling you what I told you in
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: Seattle's last game. Seattle's not good. Sorry. I know they're 5-2.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: They've had an easy schedule, man. Their only good win
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: in here is against Washington. Their other wins are twice
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: against Calgary, once against the Red Wings, and once against
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: the Flyers. All those teams have bad records. Calgary and
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: the Flyers combined have one win. And up until Calgary's
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: last game, they both had zero wins. So, yeah, this
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Seattle team is not that good. They're flying down to
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Florida here. They're not going to overlook the Lightning, though.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: That's the thing. My one loss the other day in
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: hockey was the Flyers coming back against Seattle and then
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: losing in a shootout. So you might argue that, well,
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: Seattle's going to be more focused now because they almost
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: lost to a winless team. flyer team and part of
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: my handicap was they were going to show up focused
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: for Tampa Bay and look ahead to that so I'm
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: not going to go against that now and say they're
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: going to show up unfocused here I think the question
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: is going to be is Tampa going to be focused
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I actually think maybe the yes they will they're returning
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: home from a road trip but it was only a
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: trip to New York they played two games in New
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: York Saturday Tuesday and they lost to the Rangers who
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: keep winning even though Shesterkin is now out I don't
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: know what exactly I should think about that. I think
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: at some point the Rangers are going to fall off,
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: to be honest, because I don't think they're this good.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: They weren't supposed to be, at least. Although, you never know. Hockey,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: it's hard to predict what a team's going to do
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: throughout the season, before the season starts. Hockey tends to
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: be the most unpredictable, I think. But Tampa, pretty ugly
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: loss there. Yes, they lost a four-game win streak there.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: But I don't know. To me, it looks like maybe
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: they will bounce back, even though I usually don't like
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: these road trip return spots. It was a quick road trip.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: Coming off an ugly loss. Their next game is against Vancouver,
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: which is not something here to look ahead to, really.
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: The fact that Seattle has a good record might keep
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: you focused here, so I don't really hate the Tampa
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: side here. It's just a matter of the price being
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: kind of ridiculous. It's gone up from minus 230 to
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: minus 250, basically, here. 78% of the tickets are on Tampa,
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: only 72% of the cash. Some money kind of indicating
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: towards Seattle, but I don't know. I just keep coming
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: back to the fact that it looks really, really ridiculous
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: that Seattle, 5-2 team with a better record, they're getting
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: this heavy of an underdog price. The odds breakers are
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: telling you they don't buy Seattle at all. They're telling
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: you Tampa's the way better team here. So, yeah, I mean,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: it might be a spot where you could argue for
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: the Tampa, you know. Puck line, I mean, I really
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: wouldn't want to do that, but maybe they can get
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: it done. You might have the empty netters in your
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: favor if they're winning at that point. You could get
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: the price down by playing Tampa to win in regulation.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: That's always an option. And, you know, as long as
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: they don't go to overtime, you'll get that one right. Although,
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: of course, overtime is more likely in hockey than in
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: any other sport. So you could play Tampa over their
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: team total possibly as well. It's a high total, six
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: and a half. I don't think Seattle's defense is necessarily
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: that good, so Tampa's a pretty prolific offensive team, so
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: you might be able to get there with Tampa going
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: over their team total. You need them to score probably
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: at least four goals, though, to do that, which is
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: a bit of an ask in hockey. Vancouver at Florida,
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: this game looking like a huge mismatch, too. We have
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: three games with really high money line prices here, and
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: this is one of them. I mean, you're talking about
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: one of the teams that's considered to be one of
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: the better teams in all of hockey, Florida, even though
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: they did not make the playoffs last year, and they
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: have new goaltenders this year. Vancouver is also one of
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: the absolute worst in the league, and Vancouver's on a
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: big losing streak right now. Florida just bounced back with
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: a win over Columbus. They are returning home from a
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: road trip Monday, Tuesday. They went to Buffalo, Columbus. Not
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: a long road trip, though, so I do talk about that.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: The length of the road trip, I think, does matter.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: I think the longer the road trip the more difficult
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: it is to return home and you got stuff to
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: do back at home, whatever. It's still possible Florida overlooks Vancouver.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: They only have Seattle next. I don't know if that's
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: that big of a deal, but Seattle does at least
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: have a good record right now and Vancouver does not.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: Florida blew out Columbus in their last game. I don't
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: know what's going on with their goaltending situation as they've
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: kind of had a split with Markstrom and Schmidt. I
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: don't know which one is going to be a net
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: here or if Markstrom just wasn't playing well, it looks
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: like Markstrom is actually hurt. So he's day to day.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Uh, I don't know if it matters that much, which
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: one of their goalies will be in net here. Florida
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: is playing a third game in four days though. Uh,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: I believe all in different cities. So that's not exactly
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: what you want to see. Hang on. Let me, uh,
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: I'm taking way too long to talk about these games already.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I don't like this. Let me look Florida. Uh, this
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: is Vancouver. Well, I'll talk about Vancouver schedule real quick.
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: They've lost five games in a row. Um, They're finishing
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: a road trip where they haven't won any game yet.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: They're finishing it up with two games in Florida here
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: against Florida and Tampa Bay. They'll be motivated. I mean,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: they're going to try to win a game, obviously, because
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: they've been losing so many games. A lot of travel
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: for Vancouver in quick succession, which is not easy. And Florida,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: I believe they're playing a third game in four days here. Because, yeah,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: I said Monday, Tuesday they played. So, yeah, and they're
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: actually playing a fourth and sixth as well with travel
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: between all the games. Third in four days, all of
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: those games in different cities, so that's not exactly the
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: greatest scheduling spot that Florida's in here as far as
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: the lack of rest and the amount of travel here.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: Vancouver has a little bit more rest between their games,
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: but they're still playing a fourth game in six days, though,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: all in different cities, and actually a fifth in eight days,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: so that's actually pretty bad, too. So Vancouver's had kind
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: of a packed schedule, too. Really difficult to figure this
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: game out. I think really it just comes down to
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: The fact that Florida's like a minus 300 favorite here almost,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: you can't do anything with that. You can't play the
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: money line on them. I think a puck line is
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: probably not what you want to do either just because
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: it's hockey. I know I've done it a few times,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: but very rare. 92% of tickets, 84% of the cash
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: on Florida. They're the public side with less of the
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: money on them. Do what you want with all that info.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: It looks like the money's sort of indicating towards Vancouver here.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: The over is definitely in consideration here again. Money is
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: actually agreeing with the over. 54% of tickets on the under,
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: 72% of the cash on the over. You're looking at
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: 6 or 6.5. I would try to get the 6
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: if you can help because every goal matters as far
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: as these totals. It's a really thin margin here, but
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: with both teams not having a lot of rest here,
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: maybe the over makes some sense there as well. The
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: Rangers are at New Jersey, and The odds are telling
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: you something with this one because the Rangers have a
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: good record so far. 6-2, but believe it or not,
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: both their losses have come on the road. So no
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: longer that team that can't win at home. The Rangers,
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: they've been good at home, and they have not been
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: that good on the road. Devils are sitting at 500,
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: both overall and on the road. But the interesting thing
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: to note is the Devils are favored here, and it's
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: by more than just home ice pretty much. They're at
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: minus 140-something. Although the money looks like it's driven it
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: down a little bit. and come in towards the Rangers.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: 53% of the tickets, 91% of the cash on the Rangers.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: I don't really agree, though, with the Rangers here. I
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: just think you see a team like New Jersey that's.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: 500 up against a Ranger team with a really good record,
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: and you've got to think, why is New Jersey favored
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: by this much here? You know what I mean? Plus,
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: I think New Jersey always kind of has this little
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: brother thing in the New York area. When you're playing,
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: the Rangers are kind of the big brother offensively. out
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: of the three they're the Manhattan team that is you
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: know the original team of New York you know what
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: I mean so I think the Islanders and the Devils
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: both step it up when they play the Rangers not
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: sure that the Rangers are going to continue with what
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: they've been doing here even though they're two and one
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: with Garand in that so far They beat Tampa Bay
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: in their last game. That's a big win. Nice win
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: against Tampa Bay, but with Shusterkin out with Garand in
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: net now. Yeah, give him credit. He's playing well. There's
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: no doubt about that. And maybe he will shock people
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: and continue playing well. They're 3-1 with him in net.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: Not exactly bad. But again, he's played against only two
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: good teams, and he's 1-1 in those games. And I'd
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: consider New Jersey to at least be a decent team here.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: And the oddsmakers are basically telling you these teams are...
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Somewhere around even. Maybe New Jersey's a slightly better team
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: is what the Osweggers are telling me with this line.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: New Jersey's coming back from playing in Detroit. They won
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: in overtime two days ago. It was only a single
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: game road trip. So I'm not worried about this being
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: like a road trip return spot or anything like that.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: They're not going to overlook the Rangers, although they are
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: playing a third game in four days with travel between
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: all of them. But I think I like New Jersey
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: in this one. If I was going to play this one,
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: I will not. And the money seems to disagree with me,
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: but that's what's going on there. The one Disney plus
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Hulu game is, oh, it's a great one, man. I
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: don't know why they decided to make it this game,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: but Philadelphia had Detroit. Oh, yeah, everybody's going to want
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: to watch this game. Philadelphia, they have not won. They
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: have eight losses and no wins. Do I think they're
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: this bad? No, I don't. I don't think they're the
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: worst team in hockey. They played a difficult schedule. There's
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: no doubt about that. one of the most difficult schedules,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: in fact, and you're probably going to be getting their
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: better goalie in net here, Wall, although Vladar wasn't actually
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: that bad for us when we lost with Philadelphia on
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: Tuesday against Seattle. It'll probably be Wall back in net here, though.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: He's been reasonably good in net, so I think that's
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: fine for them here. If you're thinking about playing Philadelphia here,
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I would, but Obviously, they should
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: be focused. You can't overlook anybody when you're a winless team.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: Detroit's coming off a close game, like I said, where
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: they lost at home to the Devils. Detroit is still
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: staying at home here. Detroit's only sitting as a one-win team.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: They beat Ottawa. That was their one win at home.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: Decent win, but it's not a good sign that Detroit's
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: literally only played one road game so far, and they're
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: only sitting at one win on the season. That's not great, okay?
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Coming off Some tough games against Montreal and New Jersey,
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: although they're fairly well-rested here because that was Saturday, Tuesday,
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: and those were their only two recent games. Well, they
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: played Friday, Saturday, and then they had a couple days off,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: and then they played on Tuesday. So they're a little
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: bit more rested here, I would say, now. They had
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: yesterday off. But they played pretty tough against New Jersey.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: Coming off that game, you know, possible they don't have
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: full focus here against Philadelphia.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know, man. I mean, I think I'd
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: probably lean towards Philly here, but I really don't like it.
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: Detroit's public just probably because, oh, Detroit has one win
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: and Philadelphia doesn't have any. So let's play Detroit. 71%
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: of the tickets, only 58% of the cash on them.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: I think that's what the public is thinking, you know.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: But Detroit's public with less of the money on them.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: They're at about minus 140 here on the price. Maybe
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: the money is kind of thinking the price is a
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: little bit too big on Detroit. Maybe it is. I mean,
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: they have not been impressive. In fact, you could definitely
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: argue Philadelphia has the better resume here, even though they
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: don't have any wins yet. They have, I think, three
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: overtime losses, and again, they've played a really, really difficult
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: schedule so far. So yeah, I'll agree with leaning towards
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Philly as the dog there. I don't want to do it, though.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: Next game up will be a play that I have
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: on my card here. And this game's not on the board,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: so I can't read the market here, but we're going
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: to take the Chicago Blackhawks again. I know they got
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: us the win the other day, and that was an upset,
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: but I think it was an upset that wasn't so
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: major that we need to avoid them here. Really, I'm
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: fading Winnipeg. Winnipeg won for us on that same day.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: These were our two winners on Tuesday, and they're playing
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: each other. Well, I'm going to fade Winnipeg here, though,
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: because I don't think Winnipeg's as good as their record suggests.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: 4-1-1.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: I think they won the President's Trophy two years ago,
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: but Last year they had a big-time step back. Now Hellebook,
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: their elite goalie, is basically refusing to play. So they're
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: going with a combination of Skinner and Stevenson. I'm not
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: much of a fan of either of them. I know
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: they've actually mostly been fine this year, but I don't
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: know if that's really going to continue. And Winnipeg got
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: us that big win against Minnesota on Tuesday. That's a
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: big divisional win, man, for Winnipeg against Minnesota. So I
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: think this could be a letdown spot. First of all,
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: after that big win over Minnesota, remember I talked about
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: Minnesota was coming up that big game against golden state
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: or golden. What am I saying? Golden state, the golden Knights,
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: excuse me. I'm already in NBA. Well, in WNBA mode, uh,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: cause golden States in the finals, no Vegas, golden Knights, Minnesota,
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: big win over them. After beating the Panthers, Minnesota just
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: had this run of huge games leading into that game
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: against the jets, you know? So I just thought it
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: was a bad spot. It was a bad travel spot. Um,
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: having to go back out on the road for a
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: single game for Minnesota. And they were playing a lot
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: of games in quick succession. Jets had a huge rest
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: edge in that game. So that's what I was doing
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: with that game. That's why I gave up the Jets
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: as a play there. All those things combined. Well, now
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: I think Minnesota might be in bounce back. Excuse me.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: I'll talk about Minnesota in a minute. Yes, I think
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's in bounce back mode. But we're talking about the
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Jets here, my mistake. I think the Jets are going
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: to be... in a letdown mode after that, but it
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: gets worse because this is a sandwich spot because look
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: who went up, like look, look who Winnipeg plays after
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: they play this not very good Chicago team. Only it's
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: two wins. Yeah. Winnipeg's got the returning champs on deck Carolina.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: So I think they might look ahead to that game.
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: I think this definitely qualifies as a sandwich spot here, uh,
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: coming off a huge win over Minnesota. If you dig
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: into the box score, I mean, at least I think
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: statistically the game was a bit closer than this. Um, Yeah,
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, Minnesota out-physicaled Winnipeg in the game at least.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: So that's what we have going on there. And yes,
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: I know Chicago is coming off a nice upset win,
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: but it was over the Penguins. I mean, do you
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: get really that high on yourselves after beating the Penguins?
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: I would say probably not. I do know Chicago has
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: Dallas on deck, but I don't know. Sitting at 2-5,
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: staying at home, I don't really see Chicago overlooking an opponent,
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: like a one-loss opponent like Winnipeg here. You know, even
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: though they were coming off a decent win against Pittsburgh,
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: I don't think that was like a monumental win. Pittsburgh's
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: only like a 500 team and not that good on
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: the road. So maybe Chicago's just going to come into
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: this game with a little bit of momentum here, man.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Chicago here. It's not even on
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: the board, so I don't know what to tell you
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: about that. We can't read the market here on this,
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: but yeah, even without the market, we will take Chicago.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: We get them as a dog on the money line here,
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: about plus 115. I think the favorite price on Chicago
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Winnipeg's around minus 130-something. I still don't think Winnipeg is...
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: I honestly don't think they're good enough to justify being
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: that much of a favorite on the road against most teams.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: Chicago has at least looked fairly competitive so far, so
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: we'll go with Chicago on the money line there. All right,
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: San Jose is at Nashville. Nashville is staying at home
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: after they lost in a return home spot to a
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: good team, to Vegas. But a lot of times I
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: talk about it when a team returns home from the
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: road like Nashville did. They were away for a week.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: It's tough, man. Even if you're going to try to
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: get up for it for playing a good team, a
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: lot of times you fall flat. And a lot of
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: times when that team does fall flat like Nashville did,
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: a lot of times they bounce back in the next
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: game and they play better. And that's the spot that
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: Nashville is in. That second game after you return home,
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: now you get settled in. Stuff's out of the way.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: You return to focus after playing bad. in your first
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: game back home. So I think this is a focus spot,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: at least traditionally, that Nashville is in here. San Jose
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: is coming off an ugly loss themselves, though, at home
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: to the Bruins, where I'm surprised, man. Bruins have surprised
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: me so far. They're playing a lot better than I
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: thought they would. Bruins going out for a late, late game,
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: starting the West Coast road trip there, and they beat
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: what I think is a pretty decent San Jose team.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: Ugly loss for San Jose, 6-3. Now San Jose gets
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: to turn around and start a road trip I don't
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: mind that it's a West Coast team going East, man,
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: especially because it's a night game. It would be like
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: they're playing 5 p.m. on their biological clock. That's not
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: a problem. So I don't worry about that much. I
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: do think it's a focus spot for San Jose as well,
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: starting road trips. I think both teams are in a
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: focus spot here. What do we do with this? I
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: don't know. The money's all coming in at San Jose.
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: Nashville's like a minus 140-something favorite here. The public is
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: on Nashville, which seems insane to me. I don't know
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: why they would be. 67% of tickets on Nashville. 92%
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: of the cash on San Jose. I know I was
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: high on San Jose at the beginning of the season
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: because I do think they're like an up-and-coming team with
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: a lot of young talent here. And I still agree
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: with that. I mean, yeah, they're sitting at 500 right now.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: They're a competitive team. I mean, the money is strongly
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: suggesting that San Jose is the right side here. I
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: don't have much of a reason to disagree with that, so... Yeah,
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: maybe I will just agree with that. And traditionally, a
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: focus spot for both teams does lend itself more towards
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: an under style of game. The total's fairly high for
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: a hockey game. It's six and a half. And money's
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: indicating somewhat towards the over in that game. So I
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: don't know what to tell you about that. That would not...
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: be one of my stronger uh opinions my strongest total
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: opinion is the over in the Buffalo Toronto game though
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: but yeah this game I don't have a whole lot
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: else on it I guess I'll agree with the market
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: it's slightly leaning towards San Jose uh just because I
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: think if both teams are going to be focused getting
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: them as a dog price like that might be the
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: way to look but I don't love the game by
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: any means St. Louis and Minnesota, I almost jumped the
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: gun and started talking about Minnesota. They're coming off that
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: loss to Winnipeg. I talked about how that wasn't a
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: good spot for Minnesota. They were coming off the big
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: win over the conference champs, Vegas. They were playing a
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: third game in four days. In fact, they were on
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: a back-to-back. They were playing a fourth game in six
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: days and actually a fifth game in eight days, all
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: in different cities. And the other real part of that
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: handicap was that was the first time Minnesota was going
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: to go away from their primary goalie, Volstead. They played
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Pickard in net, who I don't think is really that good.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: And him coming in cold and playing his first game
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: of the season, I really did not think that was
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: a good spot. You want your goalie to be settled in,
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean? And that first game, it
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: can be tricky. So we faded them. We got the win.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: But now it should be Volstead back in net here.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: I know Minnesota doesn't have that much of a reprieve
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: as they're still playing another third game in four days,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: another fourth game in six days, and another fifth game
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: in eight days.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: And.
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: Am I... Six games in 10 days. Am I right
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: about that? It looks like that's what that is. I
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: still don't really want Minnesota here, but they may bounce back.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to overlook St. Louis, as
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: I believe St. Louis is a divisional opponent, at least. St.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: Louis is kind of riding a high off of crushing Ottawa,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: but that was with Ottawa's backup goalie in net.
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: St.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: Louis has more rest, though. They're definitely the more rested
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: team here. They're not going to overlook Minnesota, I'll tell
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: you that. I think both teams... maybe in focused spots,
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: and when it comes down to it, yeah, I mean,
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is in the worst, like, they're in the worst
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: rest spot, I will say that. 84% of tickets, 87%
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Minnesota, at about a minus 140
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: something favorite price, which has dropped a little bit. So
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: it looks like Minnesota's public, and maybe some money has
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: actually come in and played the blues in this game,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: playing the blues. I think maybe I will slightly actually
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: agree with leaning towards St. Louis, but The fact that St.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: Louis is coming off a blowout win and Minnesota's coming
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: off a bad-looking loss, that initially kind of had me
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: leaning towards Minnesota. It's just, you know, if both teams
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: are going to wind up actually being in focused spots here, though,
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: you know, because St. Louis shouldn't overlook Minnesota, and St.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: Louis has a little bit more rest, maybe that is
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: the way to look. All right, Utah at Edmonton. This
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: is my second... strongest opinion in hockey. I like Utah
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: in this one. Edmonton's returning home from a road trip,
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: and they have no regulation losses so far. Their only
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: loss was their first game of the season in overtime
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: to Vancouver, but I still don't trust this Edmonton team
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: on the defensive side, even though they haven't allowed that
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: many goals in their last four games. They've looked pretty good,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: but they've played, you know, not the most difficult schedule here.
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: They just swept a road trip in California against Anaheim
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: San Jose. Excuse me. and LA. I mean, those are
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: decent wins for sure. None of those teams are bad.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: And Edmonton got the revenge against Anaheim for knocking them
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: out of the playoffs last year. Now Edmonton's returning home.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: But again, you know, I'm going to say it again,
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: when you've been away for a week, like they have
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: more than a week, they started the road trip on Wednesday.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: A lot of times it's a distraction spot, man. You
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: return home, you got to get back to home life.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: It can be tough to also focus on the hockey game.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: Utah's been playing well, so they're not necessarily a team
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: you're going to overlook here. But, yeah, it looks like
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: a tough spot for Edmonton here. I still don't like
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: their goaltending tandem here with Jari and Levi, however you
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: pronounce his name. I don't really love that. As far
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: as Utah's concerned, the Mammoth, they've been solid. I mean,
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: they're 5-2 here. They're coming up a win over the
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Maple Leafs, and I believe they're starting a road trip here,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: if I'm not mistaken. Or no, it's a single game
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: on the road where Utah has to go up to Edmonton.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Then they come back home and they play Edmonton again
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: right after this on Saturday. So it is a little
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: bit of a weird spot, I will say, for Utah.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: They just wanted a return home spot. They were on
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: the road for almost the entire season, came home and
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: still beat Toronto. It was a tough spot. I think
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: it was a tough spot for both teams, though. If
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: you remember, I said I liked the over in that
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: one because I believe Toronto was coming up upsetting Colorado.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: So I liked the over in that game more than
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: anything else, and it definitely went over 5-4. Utah, though,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: you've got to be impressed with Utah being 5-2 with
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: the fact that five of their seven games have come
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: on the road. That's pretty crazy. Yes, both their losses
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: have come on the road, though, so I will say that.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: They're 2-0 at home. They're going on the road here.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: It's still going to be tricky going to Edmonton, a
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: place where they usually don't go to, but I like
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: Utah on this one. I just have a few reservations
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: about it, so it's not going to make the cut
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: for me. I do usually like to fade teams... in
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: the return home spot, and the money is definitely staying
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: at Utah here. Again, I agree with it. Edmonton, 87%
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on them. They're the public side. They
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: haven't lost in regulation yet, but I still don't think
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: they're that good, at least on the defensive side. I mean,
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: they're one of the best teams in hockey. Don't get
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: me wrong, but it's all offense, and I still don't
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: trust their defense or their goaltending. Edmonton's dropped from minus
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: 135 down to minus 125 here or so. Money definitely
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: coming in on Utah legitimately, it looks like. 67% of tickets,
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: or excuse me, the cash on Utah. So the money
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: is on Utah. You can get them at an underdog price.
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: That's what I would do if I was going to
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: play that game. Utah would be my lean there. What's up, Garrett? Yeah,
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: get that workout in. You can listen to me. Get
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: pumped up for some of these games here.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: I'm going to take a break, a slight break after
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: this last hockey game here. Calgary's at Vegas, and this
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: is the biggest favorite on the whole board. Calgary is
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: their bad, man. I mean, they're probably the worst team
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: in the NHL. They have one win, but I think
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: they're worse than Philly. Vegas is one of the top
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: teams in the league, as we know, even though Tortorella
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: left after he got them to the finals last year.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: And he only coached them for like the last several
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: games of the regular season. And he's a coach with
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: a lot of experience. And I have to like him
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: because he's an Italian from Boston. But yeah, I mean,
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: he's gone. I think he's unemployed right now. So I
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: don't know. Or maybe he's a commentator now. I have
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: no idea. But yeah, Vegas didn't keep him after that run,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: which kind of surprised me. I thought they would. But
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Vegas is still off to a good
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: start this year, though. Obviously, they're 6-2. They're returning home
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: from a road trip. Monday, Tuesday, they played Minnesota, Nashville.
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: Now they're returning home from that. It's not a long
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: road trip, so I don't worry about the road trip
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: return as much here. But they still might look right
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: past Calgary. I mean, Calgary's been awful. Vegas coming off
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: a blowout win of Nashville, not that big of a deal.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: And I think Hart will be back in net for
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: them here, although both their goalies are actually pretty good,
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: so I don't think that matters that much. Their schedule
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: is pretty tight right now. They're playing a third game
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: in four days, all in different cities. Fourth game in
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: six days with travel between all of them. So that's
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: not exactly that easy. Calgary, maybe, I mean, you're not
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: going to get any value playing Vegas. I'll tell you that.
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: You can't lay a minus 325 money line or whatever
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: it is here. Calgary got a win in their last game.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: I know it was an upset. They upset Anaheim on
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: the road. But when you're Calgary and you're a one-win
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: team and you finally get that first win of the season,
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: I think it's like it gets that monkey off your
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: back and you can just play looser, you know what
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: I mean? And sometimes that'll help you. It'll break that
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: losing momentum and give you new momentum. So I don't
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: really hate Calgary in this game, even though they are
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: coming off an upset win over Anaheim. They're not going
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: to overlook Vegas, you know what I mean? whereas Vegas
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: may overlook them in the type of spot that they're in.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: So I would lean Calgary here. You can get them
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: on the puck line probably. The money line is ridiculous.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: Minus 270-something, minus 280, all the way up to about
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: minus 300. 94% of the tickets are on Vegas. I
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: don't know if that's a combination of money line tickets
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: and spread tickets. I'm not really sure what that number
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: actually reflects. But you know Vegas will be a public
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: side as far as that's concerned, even though I don't
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: think the public really plays heavy money lines like this typically.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's including if they put them in a parlay
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: or something like that to get prices down, possibly. But
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: I would not really want any part of Vegas here.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: 56% of the cash on Calgary. I'd lean towards a
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: Calgary puck line in this game if I was really
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: going to play this game. You might be able to
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: get plus two on the puck line. There's not a
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: lot of room to cover that in a hockey game.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? It's just such a close
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: game that, yeah. That would be a situation where you're
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: setting yourself up such that if Calgary loses by two,
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: you'll still push that bet. So something like that might
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: make sense. Total in that game looks like the over
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: is getting some money. It is one of the higher totals,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: six and a half. So do what you want with
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: that info. I will be right back, and then we'll
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: switch over to Major League Baseball, and then we have
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: some football to talk about as well, college football and NFL.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: I'm going to give out a play in the NFL
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: game tonight. NFL, I actually like... I might wind up
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: with four NFL plays this week, actually. I don't know.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: There are some games where I can't figure them out
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: at all, and there are other games where I have
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: a pretty strong opinion in the NFL, and one of
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: them is tonight, so I'll be right back.
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on... an
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: 0-7 run over the last two days. After tonight, it
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: start off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: 1-5.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this, man. Without The slump continuing.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: All in four.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: Have not had a good season, man. What can... Slump.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: Then I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: March 8th?
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man? I don't
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: know what day it is, man. I don't even know
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not go well for me.
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: 0-5.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: point other than potentially end it all.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Major League Baseball. Both league championship series are in action here.
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: I keep calling them conferences. Leagues. Starting with the ALCS.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: And you see a bunch of morons on Twitter and whatever.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: Even analysts on Twitter complaining about the 1 p.m. start time.
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: why is this game at 1 p.m. Tampa-Cleveland? It's because
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: the weather is expected to be bad tonight in Cleveland.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: That's the reason. What can you do? The game was
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: supposed to be at 5 p.m., I think, so it
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: doesn't overlap. Maybe 6 p.m. even, so it doesn't overlap
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: with Milwaukee-LA, but they had to move the game earlier
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: because it's supposed to be bad weather coming in later
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: in the day for Cleveland, so they wanted to get
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: the game done before that. That's just what it is.
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: What can you do? The game's at 1 p.m.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Eastern.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: This is a split series right now, tied 1-1. We
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: move back to Cleveland for this. This is on TBS
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: and TruTV. On the surface, this looks like Cleveland should
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: have the edge here because they have a good pitcher
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: on the mound here. It looks like they should have
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: the pitching edge here, but when you dig into the
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: matchup stats... Maybe not really the case. Although Cleveland has
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: Gavin Williams on the mound in this game. He's got experience.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: He's got a pretty good track record pitching in the postseason.
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: He's been excellent this postseason so far, which I'll show
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: those numbers in a minute. But there are some things
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: I don't love about this. This game actually becomes kind
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: of hard to handicap. For Tampa Bay... we have both
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: bullpens arrested here because the teams didn't play yesterday. So
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: both bullpens are pretty good. I think Cleveland's is actually
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: the better of the two. Uh, Tampa Bay definitely has
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: a better offense. Cleveland's offense, um, struggles. However, Cleveland's been
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: good offensively in the playoffs, man. And actually at the
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: end of the regular season, their offense actually was doing
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: better too. So maybe we shouldn't, um, underrate this Cleveland offense.
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Even though for the, For
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: most of the season, they were terrible. I'm still going
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: to give Tampa an offensive edge here, but yeah, Cleveland,
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: their offense has been better recently, so you've got to
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: give them that. As far as Tampa Bay, they're going
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: to be going with Griffith Jackson this one. Now, I
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: don't know if he's actually going to start the game
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: or if they're going to go with some sort of
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: bullpen type of thing here. Like, Jax might only pitch
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: a couple innings here. He pitched in the Yankees series,
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: and he pitched two innings. He was fine. He gave
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: up one run, but it was the only hit he
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: gave up. He gave up one walk as well and
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: had four strikeouts. I mean, that was fine. He got
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: a hold in that game in one of the games
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: where Tampa beat the Yankees, which was all of them
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: because they swept the Yankees. Jax, I mean, he's been
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: all right, and he actually has a little bit of
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: postseason experience. He actually pitched in the playoffs back in
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: 2023 with Minnesota. Jax actually has a career zero ERA,
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: I believe, or he had a zero ERA in the
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: postseason until this year when he gave up one run
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees, I believe is what it was. But
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: do with that what you want. It's a very small
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: sample size, though. Jacks in the playoffs. For the regular season,
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: he had a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 whip. Pretty good. Not
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: as good on the road, though. 3.61 road ERA. So
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: he wasn't as good on the road. He is good
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: against Cleveland, though, typically. They have 61 at-bats against him.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: He has a really good 19-to-2 strikeout walk ratio against them,
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: and he's held them to a 230 batting average, 565 OPS.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: So those are good numbers. Cleveland has not done a
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: lot of offensive damage against him. So I think Jax
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: might do well for the time that he's out there,
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: but Tampa looks like they will go with kind of
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: a bullpen mix here. Like Jax may not pitch that
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: many innings here. It might depend on matchups and how
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: he's doing and whatever. Uh, there is also the possibility
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: he doesn't start the game and maybe he becomes kind
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: of a bulk reliever. Uh, like maybe they put an
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: opener in front of him and he comes in and
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: throws five innings after that. You never know what really
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: Tampa is going to do here. So if you're going
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: to play this game, maybe you want to pick Williams
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: must start, but don't pick a starter for Tampa. Uh,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: It probably will be Jacks, though. Gavin Williams will definitely
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: get the start for Cleveland. Like I said, he's been good.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: He's got postseason experience. I believe his career postseason ERA
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: is somewhere in the threes. He had a 3.76 ERA
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: on this season with a 1.11 width. He was way
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: better at home, which I think is part of the
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: reason why Cleveland wants him to pitch at home throughout
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. 2.84 home ERA compared to over five on
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: the road. So he was definitely way better at home.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: He's been extremely strikeout heavy in the playoffs this season.
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: He allowed two runs and five innings against the White
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Sox in his first appearance in the postseason. Then they
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: brought him in in relief against the White Sox for
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: no apparent reason, really. They were winning the game by
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: four late in the game in one of the other
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: games where they won against the White Sox. Then he
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: started again against the White Sox. That was the game
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: where I've got my games mixed up. That was the
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: game where Cleveland set the record for the most strikeouts
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: by a Major League Baseball team in a game with 21,
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: and Williams had 12 of them in five and two-thirds.
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: in a one-hit shutout performance against the White Sox. It
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: was just that he was striking so many guys out,
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: he threw too many pitches, man. 94 pitches in five
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: and two-thirds innings. The one knock on him is he's
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: been inefficient with his pitches here in the playoffs, but
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: he does have 24 strikeouts in 11 and two-thirds innings
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs this year. That's an insane ratio.
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: I mean.
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: That's ridiculous. More than two strikeouts an inning? It's almost
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: impossible to sustain that, but that's what Williams is doing.
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit wild, five walks, but the
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: amount of strikeouts is so high that that ratio is
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: still really good. My concern with Williams, though, comes with
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: how he does against Tampa Bay, typically. Tampa Bay actually
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: has decent numbers offensively against him. He has 58 career
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: at-bats against them, 276 batting average allowed, 759 OPS, 14-5
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. So these numbers are not that good.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: So even though on the surface it looks like Williams
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: should be the better pitcher and have the upper hand here,
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: and he's got the experience edge for sure, I'm not
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: so sure. I'm not so sure about that. I kind
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: of like Tampa in this game, but 64% of tickets
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: are on Tampa. The public is back on the Tampa
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: side after they won yesterday. Oh, they're the better offense.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: They're the number one seed, whatever. They're an underdog, so
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: the public is backing them. The money looks like it
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: is backing Cleveland. 83% of the tickets on them. They're
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: up for minus 130. Actually, no, they stayed around a
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: minus 130 money line here. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, I would kind of lean Tampa. Maybe Tampa
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: first five makes some sense, but you just don't know
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: exactly what Tampa's going to do with their pitching here,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: you know? But, yeah, Williams... just typically doesn't do that
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: well against Tampa. You could maybe, I think I would
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: probably also lean over in this game, even though the
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: teams are off yesterday. Six and a half is the total,
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: so again, there's not a lot of leeway there. It
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: is juiced to the over, but it's below that key
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: number seven. 56% of tickets and 61% of the cash
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: on the over, so the money seems to be somewhat
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: indicated towards the over. I would kind of agree. I
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: would lean that way as well. Williams, again, doesn't have
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: great matchup numbers here. Jax does, but I don't know
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: if he's going to be in the game that long.
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: Then you get kind of this bullpen mix from Tampa,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: although a lot of times the bullpen mix that Tampa
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: uses works out pretty well. So, yep, it all remains
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: to be seen, man. I don't want to play the game,
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: and I don't want to play Milwaukee or the Dodgers
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: either here. Milwaukee 3-0, so that's the thing. Are the
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: Dodgers just going to pack it in now? You know
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: what I mean? All I saw this morning on TV
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: was people showing clips of the Red Sox coming back
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: from down 0-3. Obviously, we know that's the only time
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: it's ever happened. Do we think it's going to happen again?
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: I would say no. I mean, it's so unlikely. It's
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: literally only happened once in baseball ever. It's never happened
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: in the NBA, and it's happened... Maybe, I don't know,
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: like five times or something in the NHL. It's easiest
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: to overcome the 0-3 in the NHL. It's still really difficult,
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: but yeah, highly unlikely that's going to happen. Even though
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers on the surface looks like they should have
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: a pitching edge here, but I said that yesterday and
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: they still didn't win. This is going to undecided for
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee right now against Glasnow. I don't know if Milwaukee's
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: decision is whether to pitch Dustin May. He would be
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: next in their rotation. Or if they want to decide
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: to move Mizorowski up and pitch this game. I don't know, man,
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: because the thing is, if you're Milwaukee, you don't want
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: to give the Dodgers momentum, right? The way the Red
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: Sox won that game was, don't give us a single win,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean? Once they won, all the
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: momentum changed. You do not want to give the Dodgers momentum,
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: but even so, it's baseball, man. I mean, Milwaukee's going
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: to win one of the next four games, you would
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: have to think, even though they're the somewhat worse of
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: these two teams here. But in this matchup, For me,
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: my opinion on this game would entirely depend on who
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is going to start here. And we don't really
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: know who it is right now. Dodgers are about a
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: minus 150-something favorite here. The money's back in Milwaukee. 53%
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: of tickets on the Dodgers. The public still has maybe
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: just a slight lean on the Dodgers here. Maybe because
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: we don't know who's pitching for Milwaukee. 80% of the
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: cash on Milwaukee. So the real money's coming in on Milwaukee.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: I'm just not so sure, man. Milwaukee used their better
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. So even though Milwaukee is generally the
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: better bullpen, and even though I said this in game
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: two and Milwaukee still won the game, I think after
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: the usage like that yesterday, I think the bullpen edge
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: kind of goes away from Milwaukee a little bit here.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: The Dodgers didn't use a couple of their best relief
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday, and their bullpen is not that bad. It
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: is worse than Milwaukee's, but given which pitchers got used yesterday,
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: I think that kind of evens out the bullpens a bit.
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: And maybe gives the Dodgers a slight bullpen edge. But again,
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: I think motivation is going to matter a lot here. Like,
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: will the Dodgers just pack it in? Like, was going
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: down 0-3 for them the death blow mentally? You know
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: what I mean? Will they be mentally focused like the
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: Red Sox and be like, let's just get one game here?
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: Or are they just going to be a deflated team?
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: You got to figure that out. It's hard to figure
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: that out, man. It really is. Now, for Milwaukee... Again,
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: who the starting pitcher is is going to determine everything
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: in this game for me. Because I think if it's
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: Dustin May, then I think I would be leaning to
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers here. I'm not going to play this game anyway.
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: I'd lean to the Dodgers if it was going to
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: be May. May isn't really that good. 4.7 ERA, 1.32 whip,
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: and he was not good on the road. 5.88 road ERA. However,
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: he used to play on the Dodgers, so he is
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: used to pitching in the stadium. He pitched once in
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: the series a few days ago, and he pitched one
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: inning today. It was clean against the Dodgers. He didn't
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: put anybody on base, so that was good. And typically
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: he's actually not horrible against the Dodgers. 37 career bats,
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: 270 average. A lot of that's not great, really. 736
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: OPS isn't that bad, though. Eight strikeouts, five walks is
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: not a good ratio. But, yeah, he's been okay against
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers. But Tyler Glasnow is getting the start for L.A.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: He is listed as a starter. I think it's definitive
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: that it will be him. Just like I said with
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: Snell yesterday, Glasnow is fairly fresh, or he was coming
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: into the playoffs because he didn't pitch that much during
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: the season because of injuries. 3.53 ERA for him,. 95
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: whip on the season. That's really good. He wasn't as
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: good at home, though, 4.25 home ERA, but I think
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: that's a little bit misleading if you kind of dive
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: into it a little bit. He really wasn't that bad.
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: In the playoffs, though, same thing as Snell. He pitched
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: once in the Atlanta series. He wasn't as inefficient with
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: his pitch as Snell was. Glasnow held Atlanta to one
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: hit in four and two-thirds innings. That's really good. But
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: he walked five guys. So just like with Snell, Glasnow
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: was really, really wild. And he still had a decent
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: amount of strikeouts there, five. But, yeah, I think he
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: might turn it around a little bit. Like, he is
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: a little bit wild. He's not usually as wild as Snell, though.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: So I think he might kind of turn it around here.
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Milwaukee are dominant there. in 93 career
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: bats he has a 40 to 6 strikeout walk ratio
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: that's an insane ratio really high strikeout rate and very
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: low walks 118 batting average against and 333 OPS uh
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: there is one home run in here for Bowers the
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: hero of last night's game he's hit him all right
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: but other than that did Gary Sanchez play in the
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: game yesterday by the way that's what I was kind
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: of wondering uh he didn't that was stupid dude um
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: Even though Milwaukee won the game, they should have put
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: Sanchez in the lineup as a DH or something. I
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: assume you still have DHs now. I'm used to the
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: NL having the pitchers bad, but they don't do that anymore, right?
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: Even in the playoffs, I think the DH is there.
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: They should have had him DH yesterday just because he
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: had the only good numbers against Snell, and his numbers
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: are really good, so I don't know what that was.
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: But anyway, Glasnow has dominant numbers against Milwaukee. So if
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: it's Glasnow against May... I'm going to lean towards the
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: Dodgers in this one. If it is Glasnow against Mizorowski,
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: then I think you start having to lean towards the
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: under in this game. The total is 7.5 right now,
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: but I think if it is going to be Mizorowski,
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: this total is going to plummet. It'll be down to
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: like 6.5, 6, you know what I mean? So if
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: you think that's going to happen, maybe the under might
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: make sense now. I mean, I still... I don't know
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: if I'd necessarily be opposed to the under anyway. Maybe
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: a first five under because maybe you want to avoid
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: the bullpens a little bit just because of what the
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: usage sort of looked like yesterday. But I tried to
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: do that in game two or whatever it was, and
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: that didn't work out at all. Yamamoto, I don't know
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: what that was. Just shocking. And he might not pitch again.
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: If the Dodgers lose this game, then he's not going
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: to pitch again. Maybe Yamamoto comes into this game in relief.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: Who knows? But the money's slightly indicating towards the over.
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: 50% of tickets, 60% of the cash on the over.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: It's a 7.5 is the number right now. It's between, well, yeah,
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: it's pretty much a 7.5, I would say. Yeah, we'll
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: see what happens in the game, man. I don't want
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: to deal with it, though. Too much unknown in that game.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: College football, I'm skipping this as well, but I'll tell
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: you what my strongest opinion out of these three games is.
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: The ESPN game, oh, they're giving us a great one here. ESPN, 730.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: East Carolina at UAB. Oh, God. This is a bad game.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: This UAB team is really bad. Even though they're 3-3,
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: I don't think this team is good at all. East
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: Carolina sitting at 3-2, yet they're a 5.5-point road favorite here.
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: So the oddsmakers are telling you East Carolina is a
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: significantly better team with the fact they're favored on the
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: road by that much. I think the public... is not
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: going to want to lay points like that with a 500-team, basically,
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: on the road like that. Now, I do always point out,
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: like I did last night, one of the home teams
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: won out of the two yesterday, and it was the
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: one that we had, so that's good. I also kind
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: of liked Sam Houston yesterday, but their offense got nothing
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: going in that game at all. But what I keep
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: pointing out is the home team usually does a little
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: bit better in these primetime games because... more of the
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: crowd shows up. You know what I mean? It's a
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: little bit more exciting, especially when you're on ESPN. Oh,
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: we get an ESPN game. It's kind of isolated. The
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: world is watching. So the home team usually steps it
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: up a little bit more. Both teams tend to play.
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: They want to play better because you don't want to
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: get embarrassed on a national stage, but the home team
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: gets more of a boost, man. The home advantage becomes
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: stronger because it's at night, everybody gets drunk. And I
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: think more people show up for the game. You know
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: what I mean? Um, just because it's one of these
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: isolated primetime games, so it's a bit more exciting for
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: the crowd to show up to it. Oh, ESPN is here.
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: Is that going to be enough for me to want
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: to play UAB here? I don't really think so. East Carolina,
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: they're coming off an easy win over Rice, whatever. Both
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: of these teams, I think, played on Saturday, so we're
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: looking at short rest for both teams here, having played
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: on the 10th on Saturday. East Carolina had an easy
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: game against Rice, though, but East Carolina... You know, their
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: resume doesn't look that good so far. But, you know,
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, the win on the road against Old Dominion,
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: that's not a bad win there. And playing close against
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: App State isn't exactly that bad either. As far as UAB,
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: they actually played well against Illinois. I mean, even though
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: they lost by 19, statistically, they actually outplayed Illinois in
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: that game, as I keep pointing out. So that was
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: kind of their best performance. I would say. They beat
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: Navy as well. That was a decent win, but that
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: was misleading. Navy outplayed them, and they got kind of
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: lucky to win that game. So, yeah, UAB's resume is
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: not that great. They're coming off getting crushed by Memphis, though.
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe a bounce-back spot for them off of that bad
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: performance against Memphis. This game is hard to figure out.
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: I think it's a game where both teams probably show
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: up focused here. This is not the game that I
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: have a strong opinion on. The money is back in
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: East Carolina here, though. 60% of tickets are on UAB,
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: 52% of the cash on East Carolina. I think I
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: probably agree. You have to lay four and a half,
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: five though, maybe even five and a half on East Carolina.
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: But like I said, the number looks really weird, right?
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: When you have a three and two team against a
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: three and three team. And this is a conference matchup,
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: by the way, in the American conference. So at least
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: we're not dealing with Conference USA today. But I think
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: the public's thought is basically, well, Two teams that are
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: around 500, why wouldn't I take the points with the
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: home team? You know what I mean? I think that's
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: what the public is thinking, but I know that East
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: Carolina is the better team, and the oddsmakers are telling
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: you that. If both teams are going to show up focused,
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: which I kind of think will be the case here,
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: I'd probably lean laying the points with East Carolina there.
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: The money is also strong. come in on the under,
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: and the total's plummeted from 51.5 down to 47.5. I
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: don't know if maybe there's some weather affecting that, but
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: 87% of the tickets are on the over, 76% of
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over. You've already lost that key
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: number of 51, though, so if you like the under,
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: you kind of missed that. the boat on that i
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: mean 51 key number 47 is another key number but
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: i wouldn't really want to do it at the lower
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: number there but i think i would uh lay the
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: points with east carolina if i was going to do
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: anything with that game dirty sock what's up thanks for
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: hanging out uh the next game would be the strongest
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: opinion i have in college football i have one real
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: reservation with this uh which is georgia southern at old
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: dominion on espn 2 at 7 30 p.m uh you
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: look at the um the team's records here though both
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: teams are two and four and georgia southern is laying
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: points on the road so again the odds makers are
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: telling you that's the better team georgia southern laying points
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: on the road so you would think that the public
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: might be leaning towards old dominion because i'm getting points
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: at home with a team with a similar record i
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: don't think that's the case in this game though uh
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: georgia southern has 63 percent of the tickets in fact
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: 69% of the cash coming in on Old Dominion here.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: And it's again a game where money's coming in on
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: the under. Well, this is a strong market reach towards
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: the under. 88% of tickets on the over, 80% of
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under. This total dropped from 50.5
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: down to 47.5 already. And if you like the under,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: I think that is correlated with taking the points with
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: Old Dominion at plus 3.5 here, or even plus 4.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: And I do agree with that. I like Old Dominion
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: in this game, and I think this is the strongest
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: game of these college football games. I consider putting it
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: on the card, but I have one issue with it
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: where I kind of worry about Old Dominion, but I
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: think this is a bad spot for Georgia Southern, even
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: though one of my other concerns is that Georgia Southern
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: is not as bad as their record looks. They had
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: some pretty competitive results here against Clemson, Houston, even Jacksonville State.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: I'll give them credit for playing them close as well
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: because they're not that bad of a team. That was
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: a road game, so this Georgia Southern game team they're
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: not as bad as the record indicates so that's why
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: they're a road favorite here but I don't like the
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: spot that they're in uh so even though I do
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: like playing on teams where their record is misleading in
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: some way and again I think Georgia Southern's better than
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: their record looks they're coming up a huge game against
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: James Madison and yes that's another good result for them
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: where they only lost by three to James Madison but
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: you know they got way up for that game James
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: Madison's the best team in this conference uh it has
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: been the case for the last few years with Kurt
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: Cignetti there and then um Whatever the dude's name is, Chesney,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: Bob Chesney, is that his name? He's over at UCLA now.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: And yeah, both those guys are doing really well in
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: the power conferences now. They both had really good James
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: Madison teams. This James Madison team is doing well again
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: this year, and they made the playoffs last year or whatever.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: So that's a huge game, obviously, for Georgia Southern against
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: James Madison. And they fell just short against James Madison,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: losing by three as seven-point underdogs here at home. The
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: game was a 10-point game, though, late, so Georgia Southern
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: scored maybe too little too late, getting a touchdown to
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: get it back to within three late in the game,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: but there were still two and a half minutes left,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: so they still kind of had a shot to maybe
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: get the ball back there, and the game was a
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: three-point game at the start of the fourth quarter, early
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, I should say, so it was
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: a big performance for Georgia Southern. And they actually outgained
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: James Madison in the game. Turned the ball over twice.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: So sometimes when I see that and a team is
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: actually better, then maybe they kind of looked on the scoreboard.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: Sometimes I look to play on that team after that.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: But I would fade them here just because I think
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: they're coming off a game that was just too big.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? I don't think it's a
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: look ahead. They only have App State next. App State
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: and Old Dominion are both in the same division as them.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: But I don't know if that's enough because App State's
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: kind of been pretty mediocre this year. But What I
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: do think this is is a hangover spot for Georgia
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: Southern after the monster effort against JMU. So that would
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: be my main reason for leaning towards Old Dominion in
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: this one, which I think is the correct side here.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: But again, I don't want to put it on my card.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: And the main reason why I don't... Not only because
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: Georgia Southern is better than the record looks, but also
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: because of what Old Dominion just did, which I'll talk
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: about now. I believe both of these teams played on
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: Saturday as well. So these teams are both on the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: same short amount of rest as well. Old Dominion upset
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: App State. So that's kind of my hesitation here. App
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: State was like an eight and a half point favorite
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: in that game. And I told you I liked Old
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: Dominion in that game because App State was coming off
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: a pretty big performance against their in-state big brother, NC State.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: played fairly well against them, lost by 10 and took
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: their first loss of the season. So I thought it
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: would hang them over into the game against Old Dominion.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: And I think it did. And Old Dominion was able
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: to pull off the upset. Now that would worry me
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: about Old Dominion because they caught App State in a
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: good spot to catch them. And the fact they were
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: eight and a half point underdogs. Usually I do not
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: want to play in a team that pulled off an
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: upset like that. But I'm still going to lean towards
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: Old Dominion here anyway, though, because they broke a four-game
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: losing streak. So usually that gives you positive momentum when
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: you break a losing streak like that. They're going to
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: be at home, which I think is a boost on
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: these ESPN games like this, in these isolated games. Like
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: I said, this is ESPN 2. So I think that
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: will boost Old Dominion a little bit here as well.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: And the fact that that game was just ugly, man.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: A 10-3 win, nobody wants to play on a team,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: even if they win, if it's a 10-3 final, the
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: public doesn't want that. The public's going to say, oh,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: Georgia Southern played a 27-24 game against James Madison. That
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: looks way better than a 10-3 win for Old Dominion
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: over App State, you know what I mean? And the
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: public might come in and see the common opponent here,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: James Madison, and think, oh, well, Georgia Southern almost beat
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: James Madison, played them within three. Old Dominion lost to
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: them by 26 points, so obviously Georgia Southern's going to
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: win this game, right? Like, they'll do this transitive thing.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to buy that either. I think it
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: boils down to Georgia Southern coming up, that monster game
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: against James Madison. I think that puts them in the hangover.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: I don't want to put this on my card for
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: all the reasons I already stated, but yeah, I would
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: lean Old Dominion here, and I think that's the strongest
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: of the College football opinions here on tonight's slate. I
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: like Old Dominion plus the points in that one. Colorado
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: State at Texas State on CBS Sports. Both of these
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: teams are coming out of a bye, I believe. So
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: both teams actually set up pretty well in this game
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: because they're both coming out of buys that they went
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: into on a bad note. Colorado State, in fact, lost
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: three games in a row going into the buy. But
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: this Colorado State, their defense really doesn't look good, man.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: Their only really good defensive performance was against Wyoming, and
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: that's a pathetic Wyoming offense. Other than that, yeah, this
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: Colorado State team, they can't really stop anybody. And that's
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: not good when they're going up against Texas State, really,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: because Texas State is a high-powered offense. So that's not
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: going to be good for Colorado State here. Colorado State
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: just got obliterated by Oregon State. But, like I said,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: they had a bye. So they didn't play on Saturday.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: They haven't played since the 3rd. But I believe Texas
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: State also hasn't played since the 3rd. So no team
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: has a rest edge here. Going into a bye on
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: a bad note, three straight losses. Yes, I always say
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: it is a positive. The bye can help you disrupt
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: that losing momentum and fix some things. So I don't
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: hate that. So Colorado State... May still refocus for this,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: but this is going to be a home game for
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: Texas State on one of the bigger TV networks in
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: a primetime spot. You know what I mean? Usually the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: home team gets a little bit of a boost, and
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: because of the conference realignments, I believe this is a
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: Mountain West game now, right? Or no, it's a Pac-12 game.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: What the hell? Dude, I can't get these conferences straight.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: This is a Pac-12 game. Texas State is in the Pac-12. Yeah, okay.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: Totally makes sense. But because of these realignments, Colorado State
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: is not used to playing in Texas State. You know
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: what I mean? I think if Texas State had to
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: go to Colorado State, whichever team is the home team,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: I think has a bigger edge because of the unfamiliarity here.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: You know what I'm saying? I think if Texas State
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: had to go into Elevation and play in Colorado, Colorado State,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: that would be a problem for them. But Colorado State
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: having to go to play in Texas... In San Marcos
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: or whatever, yeah. That's not a familiar location for them.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: So that might boost the home advantage on Texas State
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit. Texas State, by the way, they went
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: into the bye on a bad note as well. They
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: lost as a big favorite at San Diego State. And remember,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: San Diego State is a team that's been dealing with
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: a mumps outbreak and they've been dealing with injuries. That
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: was a depleted San Diego State team. Texas State was
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: a huge favorite in the game, like 9-9.5, and they
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: lost the game outright, which is absolutely ridiculous. So they
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: went to the bye on a bad note, too, so
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: you've got to think they're going to come out having
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: fixed some things. If you look into this box score here,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: you want to talk about a misleading result? Texas State
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: lost this game, but they outgained San Diego State by
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: more than 300 yards in the game. How is that
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: even possible? I mean, literally, this is just what Texas
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: State does every time, and that's why... I'd be worried. Like,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: I lean towards Texas State in the game tonight, but
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: I'd be worried because they do this every single time, dude. Like,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: without fail. You see this constantly over the last few years.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: They gotta fire their coach, dude. I'm sorry. But Texas State,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: they will massively out-game their opponent every single game, but
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: they'll lose the turnover battle every single game and lose
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: the game anyway, which is completely ridiculous. They completely dominated
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: this game against San Diego State. So, yeah, it was
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: a completely misleading result. They were minus two in turnovers,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: which obviously hurt them, but dominating the yardage battle by
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: this much, they should have won anyway. They dominated first
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: downs by more than double. They more than doubled the
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: possession time of San Diego State as well. They gave
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: up a kickoff return touchdown in the game. I mean,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: this is just absurd shit, dude. Texas State was winning
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: this game 17-3 at halftime. Immediately to open the second half,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: San Diego State returns a kick for a touchdown, and
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: then it was like everything just went to hell. San
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: Diego State also had a pick six in the game,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: by the way. So this, again, it's completely misleading, but
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: fucking Texas State, they got to fix their fucking coaching, dude.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: And Brad Jackson or whatever the hell their quarterback's name is.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: He looks good. I like his look. He's got the stash.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: He's got like kind of the mullet going on there.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: He looks like he should be fucking good. Maybe he
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: should be playing baseball. I don't know. He's got to
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: stop throwing picks. This team's got to stop turning the
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: ball over, man. That's my concern with Texas State, because
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: I think both teams are in focused spots here. I
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: think you're going to look at this number and think
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: that this is kind of high. Texas State's laying 14 now.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: They open 11.5, though. So I think if you want
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: Texas State, do not lay 14.5. You know what I mean?
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: You've got to find a 14. That's a key number, obviously.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: Exactly two touchdowns is a very key number. So try
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: to find that if you like Texas State here. But
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: they're kind of public, 72% of the tickets, 76% of
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: the cash on them, though. But I still think You know,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: that loss was just so misleading against San Diego State.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: Both teams should be in a positive spot coming out
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: of the bye. I think that would indicate that you
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: should be looking towards the better team, which is Texas
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 3: State here. This Colorado State team can't stop anybody. And
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: the total is absurd in this game. The total's gone
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: up from 67.5 up to 71. This is one of
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: the highest totals you're going to see. So if you
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: want to watch a game with a lot of scoring...
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: Here you go, man. It'll be this game. The total
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: in this game is more than 20 points higher than
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: the totals in the other two games. And you know what?
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: If you think Texas State's going to win and you're
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: worried about them turning the ball over constantly and whatever,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: the move in this game is to take Texas State
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: over their team total. I mean, that's the way to
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: play this game. This Colorado State defense is a complete disaster.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: Even though the bye should help, though. That would be
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: my hesitation with that is that coming out of a bye...
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: It actually helps the defense, I think. The rest will
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: help the defense, and the offense might be a little
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: bit cold. But I still think that's probably the best
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: way to play this. I would lean towards laying the
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: points with Texas State, but I think the best way
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: to play this is to take them over their team total.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: But it's going to be– it'll be a high number, dude. Like,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: let me see. What's the number on it? Let me see.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: But I think that– I don't do that much with
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: team totals, but I think that might be the approach
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: in this game. Whoops, I clicked on the wrong thing here. Oh,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: I'm not in the right window, but I don't want
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: to show– the paid product, Action Network anyway, though. Let
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: me see. You can find a 14 right now that's
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: not juiced that heavily, so there's something for you there
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: on the spread. Texas State's team total is 42.5. Man. 42.5
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: is the team total on them, but I think that
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: might be the best way to play this still is
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: to take Texas State over the 42.5 team total. I
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: know it sounds insane, but this Colorado State defense, absolute garbage.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: Texas State's offense is definitely prolific, so I think that
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: might be the way to go in that one. But
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: I'd also lean towards laying the points still. Hindium, what's up, man?
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: No thank you. I do not want to see your
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: box score. All right, and then we have NFL here.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: I do have a play in the NFL game, which
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: is Seattle at Denver on Amazon Prime. I believe I am...
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: what week is this? This is week six. I believe
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: I'm four and one in the Thursday night games, depending
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: on how you want to score. Whichever way you score
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: week one, the Amazon prime game, I think was Wednesday
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: in week one. I got that correct against the spread,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: but I also got the Thursday night game even more
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: correct with my play on the Niners in the Australia game.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: So whichever way you look at it, we'll go four
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: and one. You know, I don't want to like, I
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: don't want to jinx anything, you know, so I don't
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: really want to talk about it. Even though, yes, my
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: track record in these Thursday night games has been good,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: but we're going to take the Denver Broncos plus two
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: and a half here. I would wait on this to
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: see if you can get a three because this is
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: the only NFL game tonight. So there's going to be
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: some public action coming in here right now. We see
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 3: 73% of the tickets and 82% of the cash on Seattle.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping that turns around a little bit and we
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: see the market read come more in line with what
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: I like here, but yeah, The fact that this has
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: not hit three, and in fact it's actually gone down
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit. It opened close to three, and it's
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: been two and a half basically the entire week. The
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: fact that the public is all over Seattle here and
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: the line has not moved back to three, that should
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: tell you something. That means the oddsmakers are okay with
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: taking all that action on Seattle in this game and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: not moving that to that key number three. And they
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: know that it looks really enticing. Oh, the Super Bowl champs,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: the team with the offense that looks way better here.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: And it is. Seattle's offense is better than Denver's. I
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: think Denver's offense is actually ass. So, yeah, there's no
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: doubt that Seattle's the better offense, but I think Denver's
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: the better defense here, and I think they're in the
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: better spot, and you're getting the better defense as a
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: home underdog. You know I like that. Getting the better
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: defense at home as a dog? Yeah, give that to me.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: Seattle's defense has not been that good on the season, really.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: We're looking at a low total. The over is getting
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: a lot of public tickets here, but that total's dropped
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: through the key number of 41 down to 40.5, so
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: this is a pretty low total here. So I like
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: taking the underdog in a low total game too. And
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: I think the under is probably correlated with the Denver
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: side here. You know what I mean? I think if
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: Denver's going to be able to do this, they're going
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: to have to make this game ugly and make it
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: a lower scoring game. And I think they have the
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: ability to do that. But there's a lot about the
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: spot where I think Seattle is a fadable team here.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: First of all, it's a road out of conference game.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: You know I always talk about how that's the game
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: that means the least on a team's schedule. Going on
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: the road out of conference game. As far as the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: tiebreakers are concerned, it means the least when it comes
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: down to it. It's also a short week. So Seattle
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 3: with a quick turnaround time, they got to go to
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: an unfamiliar location. They have to go into high elevation
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: into mile high, which they're not that used to, to
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: play Denver. So I think that's a negative for them
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: in a short turnaround time. The home team tends to
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: have a bit of an edge in these Thursday night games,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: quick turnaround time, just because, you know, they're more familiar
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: with the location. Uh, the travel sets up better for them. Um,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: Whereas the team that's traveling in, a lot of times
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: they lose one day of practice. You know what I mean? Now,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: Seattle is the better team. That's why they're favored on
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: the road. I'm not going to say they're not. They
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: are the better team here. And sometimes the better team
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: does better with that short prep time. And I know
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: Seattle's been a really good road team under McDonald. I
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: get all that. But I just think the spot sets
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: up poorly for them, man. Again, the most unfamiliar venues
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: for you are these road out of conference games. So
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: Seattle is not used to playing in Denver. So that
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: is a concern on a short week. But the other
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: concern is Seattle's coming off a monster game, dude, against
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: the 49ers. That was a huge game. And they lost
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: the game. San Francisco's sitting at 5-0 here. That's basically Seattle.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: Even though the Rams are competition as well, we'll say
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: the 49ers and the Rams are Seattle's main competition here.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? So they're coming off one
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: of their biggest games of the season. So I think
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: that's bad. Now they're going back out on the road here.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: And Seattle only has one road win, which is against
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals, who suck. And that was a good spot
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: for Seattle because it was actually the injured player theory
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: spot where Drew Locke actually was the starter in that game.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: Seattle stepped up their game for it. So, by the way, Seattle,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: their own won in their road games with Sam Darnold. But,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: of course, that was the reverse injured player spot. With
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: Darnold coming back, they had to travel across the country.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: I gave out a winner on the show in Washington
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: in that game for a whole bunch of reasons, but
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: that was part of the handicap there. But yes, after that,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: I thought Seattle would start playing better, and they have.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: But what you're going to hear after the San Francisco
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: game all week is that Seattle should have won this
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: game because San Francisco made a lot of mistakes. Or
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: excuse me, because Seattle made a lot of mistakes, and
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: the mistakes really hurt them. And everybody really points at
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: the way that they handled the end of the first half.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I agree, it was totally stupid. At the
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: end of the first half, they were backed up against
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: their own end zone, down one, and with little time left,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: and their goal was to just get into halftime with
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: a one-point game, you know what I mean? And I
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: don't know what they were thinking, because they were somewhere
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: around their own four-yard line. All you got to do
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: is have Sam Darnold QB sneak it, basically, you know
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: what I mean? Run out the rest of the time.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: That's all you got to do, right? Just have your
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: quarterback lean forward. Don't lose the ball. Don't fuck it up. Instead,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: they handed it off to, I think it was Helani, my...
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: prop loser from the Super Bowl, and he fumbled the
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: football into the end zone, and San Francisco recovered it
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: to go up at halftime by eight instead of one. Really,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: really stupid coaching decision there. It made absolutely zero sense,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: but even after that, though, Seattle came all the way
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: back and took the lead. San Francisco didn't score for
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: The entire third quarter. And then San Francisco turned it
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: on and wound up winning late anyway. So, yeah, you
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: could say that, well, Seattle lost this game because of mistakes. And, yeah,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: they had four turnovers. But San Francisco had three. So
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: it's not like this is a lopsided, like, totally misleading result.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: It really wasn't. Both teams turned the ball over. a
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: ton and the stats were close. It was close possession wise.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: San Francisco actually outgained Seattle by a little bit. So no,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: I don't think it was a misleading result, even though
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: that seems like it's the narrative that's out there. So
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: I don't really think so. But I think What you
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: should think is that that was a huge game. Seattle's
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: coming off a huge game, and I think they're going
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: to get a lot of credit for almost beating San Francisco.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: In the public's mind, that's a really good result for Seattle.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: You just played this high-scoring, back-and-forth, close game against San Francisco.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: So that's going to make Seattle look good in the
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: public eye, whereas for Denver, Denver's result didn't look good
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: at all. They barely beat the Chargers, who don't have
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: any wins on the season. so why would anybody want
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: to play Denver here you know what I mean so
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: I like that the fact that even though Denver won
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: and Seattle lost and a lot of times yeah I'll
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: go with the team that lost their last game against
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: the team that won in this case I don't want
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: to do that because I think Denver will get no
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: credit for beating the Chargers um and in fact I
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: think this might shock Denver into focus because they should
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: have lost this game um Again, Chargers with the fucking turnovers. Again,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: it's Madison Beer distracting Justin Herbert. He's played like ass
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: all season, dude. She's distracting him. He needs to dump her.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: He's got to choose between her and football. What can
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: I say, man? The Chargers, I'm pissed because I had
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: the Chargers in my contest entry last week, and they
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: almost made my card. They should have covered this game.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: There's no doubt about it. They outgained Denver in the game.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: They lost the turnover battle, and that's how they lost.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: The Chargers were winning this game in the fourth quarter
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: by seven, and they completely blew it. And then the
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: only way Denver covered was a field goal with a
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: minute left in the game just to really fucking irritate me.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: That's when Denver covered the number there. But I think
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: for Denver's purposes here, they played a bad game. You
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? They went into that game. I
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: think they overlooked the Chargers. They didn't play well. So
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: I think Denver's going to play better in this game
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: coming back home. You know what I mean? And I
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: believe Denver's 2-0 at home. Let me check that. Even
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: though they should have lost to the Rams at home.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: They got outplayed by the Rams. But yeah, Denver is
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: 2-0 at home. So Denver's been better at home for sure.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: They beat the Jags. They made a nice comeback and
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: beat the Jags. Yes, they did get outstatted against the
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: Jags and the Rams. That's a little bit of a concern.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: The Seahawks are certainly a good team. There's no doubt
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: about it. But when all is said and done here,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: Denver's coming up with an ugly result. Coming back home here,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: I think it's a good spot for them. The return
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: home spot's not a negative in football because you play
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: on a week-to-week basis. So a road trip isn't really
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: necessarily a thing. And for Seattle, they're coming off a
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: monster game against the 49ers. That was a physical game, too.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: Those teams were beating each other up. Greenlaw, I think,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: got a suspension for whatever he did in that game
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: for the 49ers. So that was a real tough physical game.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: Those teams really don't like each other. Now Seattle's coming
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: off that game in a short week, all beat up
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: off that. Oh, and by the way, Seattle next week,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: they play the Sunday night game next week at home
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: against the Kansas City Chiefs. That looks like it's going
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: to be a big game. The Chiefs look like they're
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: one of the frontrunners in the AFC this year again.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 3: That might be a bigger game. So really, this game
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: is sandwiched in between the top teams in each conference
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: right now, debatably. The 49ers and the Chiefs, those might
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: be the top two teams in their respective conferences, and
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: this game is sandwiched in between those for Seattle. So yeah,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: I like the Broncos. We're going to take the points
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: with the Broncos. I know that was a long-winded explanation there,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: but yeah, we'll take the Broncos. What I'm going to
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: say is wait to see if you can get a
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: three on this because the difference between two and two
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: and a half is minimal. Three is a key number,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: and with the public coming in on this and this
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: being the only NFL game, and I don't think the
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: college football games are really going to attract that much
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: public attention. It's possible you see this line get to three.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: It might not, but we'll see. I think there is
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: the possibility, so I would just wait because if it
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: drops from two and a half to two, you're not
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: losing that much. And of course, as always, put 10%
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: of this bet on the money line because if you
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: think Denver's going to cover a spread like this, you
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: pretty much are saying they're going to win the game.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: So let's do it. That's going to do it. My
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: two plays today are the Chicago Blackhawks on the money line.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: Going back to them again here, I think it's an
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 3: absolute fade spot, though, for Winnipeg. So we're fading two
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: teams to sandwich spots here. We're taking the Denver Broncos
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. Let's do it. Let's get these right.
• 1:23:24
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• 1:23:26
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• 1:23:29
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• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: What else was I going to say? Oh, we're on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: I lose my mind sometimes. Yeah, let's get those audio
• 1:23:42
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• 1:23:46
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• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: to support me. Over there, I know I have to
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: update the Spotify audio feed with all the stuff I've
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: done recently. I've got to get that done. I've got
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 3: to do it, maybe today at some point. What else
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: is there to talk about? Losercast, Hindian in the chat there.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: Shout out every Tuesday night. And I believe that is it. Yeah, patreon.com
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: slash learn to tote if you want to support me
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 3: over there. That's it. Let's have a winning day today, man.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: A slight loser yesterday with the one and one. What
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: can you do? Let's get it back today. Let's get
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: a winning day today. Peace.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer. Let somebody know.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: On Stay with me now.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.