Latest / Foul Territory / Ken Rosenthal dishes on Ump betting scandal, Phillies next splash, M's lies, Respecting Witt + PECOTA

Transcript

Ken Rosenthal dishes on Ump betting scandal, Phillies next splash, M's lies, Respecting Witt + PECOTA · Foul Territory

0:00
Speaker 1: If you're looking at the best young players in the game,
0:02
Speaker 1: you're picking three. I would think Bobby Witt junior at
0:06
Speaker 1: twenty four years old, has to be one.
0:08
Speaker 2: Of them, still in his prime. Ft senior insire both
0:18
Speaker 2: tie right now.
0:19
Speaker 3: That's how I know when did you start wearing bow ties?
0:22
Speaker 3: Because you have a regular tie on, So now tell
0:25
Speaker 3: me I'm wrong.
0:26
Speaker 1: Well, actually, there were times in the past fifteen years
0:30
Speaker 1: or so where I have won regular ties, but I
0:32
Speaker 1: started wearing them in twenty ten. I don't think that's
0:35
Speaker 1: pre twenty ten. But AJ, who cares. People want to
0:38
Speaker 1: talk about baseball, not my hair, my looks, or whenever
0:41
Speaker 1: that photo was taken.
0:44
Speaker 2: I desperately want to steal the attention away from football
0:47
Speaker 2: this week. I want to start with a city that
0:50
Speaker 2: needs to pay attention to their Phillies and not to
0:53
Speaker 2: their Eagles just because they're in the Super Bowl. Do
0:56
Speaker 2: you think that the Phillies could be players for Kyle
0:58
Speaker 2: Tucker after this season? Chances are not likely he's going
1:01
Speaker 2: to sign back to the Cubs. I'm sure the Yankees
1:03
Speaker 2: would be involved. But can you get into what you
1:06
Speaker 2: wrote about covering the Phillies and their payroll? This morning?
1:09
Speaker 2: In the notes column.
1:11
Speaker 1: Yes, what I mentioned was that the Phillies have seventy
1:13
Speaker 1: five million dollars just about coming off their payroll at
1:16
Speaker 1: the end of this season. Now, I also said that
1:19
Speaker 1: this number is deceptive. They're most likely going to resign
1:22
Speaker 1: Schwarber to some deal he's a potential free agent, and
1:26
Speaker 1: they almost have to re sign jt reel Muto as
1:29
Speaker 1: well because they have no internal options. So the seventy
1:32
Speaker 1: five million will be much less. But at the same time,
1:35
Speaker 1: their team is getting older, their whole core is getting older.
1:39
Speaker 1: They're in their thirties to mid thirties, and they're going
1:43
Speaker 1: to need an infusion of talent in addition to what
1:46
Speaker 1: they already have, which is really good. So that's why
1:49
Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker could be someone that makes sense for them.
1:52
Speaker 1: As I wrote, they're going to need to be in
1:53
Speaker 1: the next few years, creative and smart and aggressive because
1:57
Speaker 1: this window is not going to be open with these
1:59
Speaker 1: plays forever.
2:03
Speaker 4: Talk about another superstar who's been snubbed, not just for awards.
2:07
Speaker 4: When I read your notes, calm kind of hit on
2:10
Speaker 4: what Bobby Wit has really been snubbed.
2:12
Speaker 5: I didn't realize you were a video game guy.
2:15
Speaker 1: Well, I'm modldly a video game guy. But what I
2:19
Speaker 1: saw this big announcement that the cover of the show
2:22
Speaker 1: this year would be Paul Skeen's Gunner Henderson and Elie
2:25
Speaker 1: de la Cruz. I thought, well, that's cool, but the
2:28
Speaker 1: best young player in the game is Bobby wit Junior.
2:31
Speaker 1: And if you're trying to honor young players, where is
2:33
Speaker 1: that guy? So yeah, I wrote about it today my notes.
2:36
Speaker 1: Colum got the standard kind of wishy washy no comment
2:41
Speaker 1: pretty much from a PR person over at Sony. They think.
2:44
Speaker 1: They basically said, we chose our guys. Every year this controversy,
2:48
Speaker 1: we choose our guys. It's always looked difficult for us
2:50
Speaker 1: to choose who should be on the cover. But to me,
2:54
Speaker 1: by any objective measure, if you're looking at the best
2:58
Speaker 1: young players of the game, you're making three. I would
3:01
Speaker 1: think Bobby Witt Junior, at twenty four years old, has
3:04
Speaker 1: to be one of them. Now he's older than all
3:06
Speaker 1: of those guys, not by much but a little bit.
3:08
Speaker 1: So maybe they thought he's too old. I don't know what.
3:13
Speaker 5: Maybe he just needs a better agent. I don't know.
3:16
Speaker 3: Maybe they called his agent is his agent? His dad
3:18
Speaker 3: wasn't it his agent is not his dad, is it?
3:21
Speaker 1: His agent is his dad? But I don't believe his
3:23
Speaker 1: agent was necessarily involved with this. This is EA and
3:26
Speaker 1: Sony's choice, not Bobby Wit Juniors or Bobby.
3:28
Speaker 2: Won get the call. I can actually step in on
3:31
Speaker 2: this one too and help he didn't get the call
3:33
Speaker 2: because I actually know his marketing agent pretty well. He
3:35
Speaker 2: does a damn good job. So I'm going to back
3:37
Speaker 2: him up there, because if he got the call, the done.
3:40
Speaker 5: You know who Scott was rooting for.
3:42
Speaker 2: Elly Baby, Well, if you're gonna have three, you might
3:45
Speaker 2: as well have four. I get the point, but maybe
3:47
Speaker 2: he was too old. And also I have a guess
3:51
Speaker 2: too that if you're looking at at data and you
3:55
Speaker 2: know how many say Royals fans are playing the sport,
3:58
Speaker 2: and I know Bobby's technically a national superstar, that that
4:01
Speaker 2: stuff does matter.
4:02
Speaker 5: Right.
4:02
Speaker 2: Kansas City is a small don scot all right, that's.
4:05
Speaker 1: A fair question. But look at the other markets that
4:07
Speaker 1: are represented, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. It's not like we're
4:11
Speaker 1: talking about a big West coast or big East coast
4:14
Speaker 1: city that is getting a player on there. Because they
4:18
Speaker 1: are and because of this market size, it's not like
4:21
Speaker 1: that at all. Actually, I could have mentioned that in
4:23
Speaker 1: the column, that it doesn't make sense from that perspective. Actually,
4:27
Speaker 1: to have somebody the Midwest might have been advisable, considering
4:30
Speaker 1: that all three of the other guys, well, Cincinnati's not
4:32
Speaker 1: really an eastern city, but it's east of Kansas City,
4:35
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh and Baltimore certainly are eastern cities. So there's
4:38
Speaker 1: no logical explanation.
4:40
Speaker 2: Okay, that's fair.
4:43
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about a guy from Iowa, and
4:47
Speaker 3: Pat Hoberg got fired from Major League Baseball, and this
4:50
Speaker 3: has been going on for apparently almost a year, this
4:52
Speaker 3: whole investigation thing. He knew about it, so he umpire
4:55
Speaker 3: the whole year, knowing that this was coming. He did
4:59
Speaker 3: an umpire.
5:01
Speaker 2: I told you. They took him off the field as
5:02
Speaker 2: soon as they knew what was going on.
5:04
Speaker 5: Well, so when did this When did we say this
5:06
Speaker 5: came down?
5:08
Speaker 1: The decision came down yesterday, But before that, I was
5:12
Speaker 1: in July. We actually broke this story, Evandrelica and I
5:15
Speaker 1: when he was out. I can't remember exactly what it was,
5:17
Speaker 1: but Midsummer, I believe is when we found out.
5:19
Speaker 5: Do you know, did you guys know why he was out?
5:22
Speaker 5: Did you know why he was out?
5:24
Speaker 1: I don't recall at the time if we reported it,
5:26
Speaker 1: but I believe we knew. I just don't know if
5:29
Speaker 1: we reported it. I don't have the story in front
5:31
Speaker 1: of me.
5:32
Speaker 2: We're being told heard that. Yeah, we're being told May
5:35
Speaker 2: thirty first might have been the day. Okay, okay, So
5:39
Speaker 2: that's for context.
5:40
Speaker 3: But my question is is this something we're going to
5:43
Speaker 3: see more often and not only in baseball but in
5:45
Speaker 3: other sports?
5:45
Speaker 5: Because this is crazy.
5:47
Speaker 3: Remember the NBA thing where they had the guy that
5:49
Speaker 3: was betting on games. I know Hoberg pat said he
5:51
Speaker 3: didn't bet on baseball and they shared an account and
5:54
Speaker 3: this whole deal. But with gambling sites everywhere, we're in it. Right,
6:00
Speaker 3: this is something we need to stop. How does Major
6:02
Speaker 3: League Baseball stop this? Other sports stop this? And what's
6:06
Speaker 3: the next step. I don't know what the next step is.
6:09
Speaker 1: Actually, it's a good question, AJ because certainly the proliferation
6:13
Speaker 1: of gambling and gambling sites has happened, and with the
6:16
Speaker 1: cooperation of the professional sports leagues, right, so I would
6:21
Speaker 1: imagine and this might be worth something that we should
6:24
Speaker 1: look into. Maybe something we should look into there has
6:27
Speaker 1: been an increase in security by Major League Baseball and
6:30
Speaker 1: the other leagues to monitor these kinds of things, to
6:33
Speaker 1: make sure the umpires and players are not involved in
6:37
Speaker 1: situations like the one Hoberg was involved in. I don't
6:40
Speaker 1: know that for a fact, but it would stand to
6:42
Speaker 1: reason that because of this all being so legal now,
6:48
Speaker 1: and because of players and umpires and anyone else being
6:51
Speaker 1: so vulnerable to it, Yeah, you'd want increased security, You'd
6:54
Speaker 1: want an increased presence, you'd want increased investigations. And you
6:58
Speaker 1: asked if we will see more of this? I suspect
7:01
Speaker 1: we will see more of this because there are people
7:03
Speaker 1: in all walks of life who gamble and gamble at
7:08
Speaker 1: times to access.
7:12
Speaker 2: I still want to come in here with my point
7:14
Speaker 2: on regulation, too, Ken, because I think people are living
7:20
Speaker 2: under a rock if they don't think that this stuff
7:23
Speaker 2: has been going on forever, and the only reason it's
7:26
Speaker 2: coming more so to the forefront is because it's trackable now.
7:30
Speaker 2: Pat was using apps that could be tracked. In the past,
7:33
Speaker 2: Pat would be doing the same thing with his buddy.
7:36
Speaker 2: They would just be doing it on the Cayman Islands
7:37
Speaker 2: account that everyone was using when I was grown up right,
7:41
Speaker 2: or name that random other island where this was all
7:43
Speaker 2: being run on apps and on websites. So I just
7:46
Speaker 2: want to make sure I'm firm on that point, because
7:49
Speaker 2: I do think the regulation is putting this more at
7:51
Speaker 2: the forefront of the news and also catching the offenders,
7:55
Speaker 2: which we didn't do well for a long time. To
7:58
Speaker 2: act like this hasn't happened, it's just that he would
8:01
Speaker 2: have never been caught in the past.
8:03
Speaker 1: Scott. That's a great point, and I just went back
8:05
Speaker 1: aj and checked that story. We did report at the
8:07
Speaker 1: time that it was for gambling. When we wrote that story,
8:10
Speaker 1: it was in mid June. So yes, this is something
8:15
Speaker 1: that obviously can be traced much more easily than in
8:18
Speaker 1: the past because of just what you said, Scott, that's
8:20
Speaker 1: exactly how Hoberg got caught, and what happened there was
8:24
Speaker 1: indicative of what could happen to others as well. So
8:29
Speaker 1: I don't know where this is going long term, but
8:30
Speaker 1: I do expect we're going to see this from time
8:32
Speaker 1: to time. And you've also seen stories about players who
8:36
Speaker 1: have been threatened by people who are involved in gambling
8:39
Speaker 1: and getting on them, whether through social media or some
8:42
Speaker 1: other ways, and that's something that has arisen as a
8:45
Speaker 1: result of this. I don't love it. I don't love
8:48
Speaker 1: any aspect of it, but it is reality, not just
8:50
Speaker 1: for sports leagues right now, but for sports media companies,
8:54
Speaker 1: and we can't deny that. So it's pervasive, and that's
8:58
Speaker 1: why the regulation and the discipline of it needs to
9:01
Speaker 1: be constantly in a situation where it's vigilant.
9:07
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10:09
Speaker 4: We can ever figure out the mystery of San Diego,
10:12
Speaker 4: especially with AJ Preller coming out and saying we need
10:14
Speaker 4: to add another arm, we need to add a couple
10:17
Speaker 4: more bats, and yet we're hearing that king Er Michael
10:21
Speaker 4: King is available. We're hearing that Dylan Cease is available.
10:25
Speaker 4: What is the mystery that we have to try to
10:29
Speaker 4: figure out in San Diego?
10:31
Speaker 1: What exactly they're doing? And it's not clear because they
10:34
Speaker 1: are talking about those guys and AJ Preller has made
10:37
Speaker 1: this clear to me in the past, and other gms
10:39
Speaker 1: have two. When you have a player in his walk
10:42
Speaker 1: ear and you're not starting to resign him, you're going
10:44
Speaker 1: to listen now Granted, the Blue Jays are not listening
10:47
Speaker 1: on Vlad Junior. I get it, they're trying to sign him.
10:49
Speaker 1: But generally speaking, those players you listen on and you
10:53
Speaker 1: at least explore the market value for them any trade.
10:57
Speaker 1: Yet the Padres, as aj pro said the other day,
11:00
Speaker 1: need an additional armor two and an additional bat or two.
11:03
Speaker 1: Where they get that and who those people might be,
11:06
Speaker 1: I don't know, because the free agent market has thinned considerably.
11:09
Speaker 1: You could do it in a trade. He's a very
11:12
Speaker 1: creative GM, as we've seen. He is not bound by
11:14
Speaker 1: any calendar restrictions. We've seen him make trades in March, April, May, whenever.
11:20
Speaker 1: So I don't know exactly what they're doing, and I'm
11:23
Speaker 1: not sure they know exactly because remember, all of their
11:26
Speaker 1: off season maneuvering is taking place against the backdrop of
11:30
Speaker 1: the lawsuit that is going on between the laid owner
11:34
Speaker 1: Peter Sidler's widow and his brothers for control of the team.
11:38
Speaker 1: So where they are financially, that's not clear. Their payroll
11:41
Speaker 1: is up, it's up because of internal raises. For the
11:44
Speaker 1: most part, they haven't done anything really of consequence, except
11:48
Speaker 1: for sign catcher Elis Diaz so it's going to be
11:52
Speaker 1: really interesting to see what they do in the next
11:55
Speaker 1: few weeks and leading up to opening Day, because that
11:58
Speaker 1: will tell us where they are. And actually, the Michael
12:01
Speaker 1: King contract, if you saw it the other day, one
12:04
Speaker 1: year seven point seven to five million with three point
12:08
Speaker 1: seven five million in a buyout that will not be
12:10
Speaker 1: paid until the end of the season, that tells you
12:13
Speaker 1: something too, because they're pushing money back and it shows
12:16
Speaker 1: you that at least for this season, they're under some
12:19
Speaker 1: type of financial restriction.
12:24
Speaker 3: Okay, Ken speaking of another GM that's under financial restriction.
12:27
Speaker 3: Jerry Depoto came out and said, Hey, the Mariners, we're
12:29
Speaker 3: the perfect team.
12:30
Speaker 5: What'd you think of? What he said? Because they haven't done.
12:33
Speaker 3: Anything this offseason really either, And hey, I think we're great.
12:36
Speaker 3: We have a great farm system, the fans are happy,
12:39
Speaker 3: everyone's happy, and we're going to see how it goes well.
12:43
Speaker 1: The fans are not happy, first of all, and Jerry
12:45
Speaker 1: Depoto knows that their fans are frustrated by this team's
12:50
Speaker 1: unwillingness to spend what they should be spending to support
12:54
Speaker 1: a rotation that is arguably the best in the game,
12:58
Speaker 1: and a rotation you will have together for only so long.
13:02
Speaker 1: So yes, they've added Donovan Solano and Jorge Polanco. They
13:05
Speaker 1: are decent players, there's no question about that, accomplished veterans,
13:08
Speaker 1: but they're not stars. And what this team really needs
13:12
Speaker 1: is one more huge bat and the place to do
13:15
Speaker 1: it would have been first base. But they weren't involved
13:17
Speaker 1: in Christian Walker. They don't seem to be involved in
13:19
Speaker 1: Pete Alonzo, and it seems that the problem with this
13:23
Speaker 1: organization is that ownership is unwilling to go an extra
13:26
Speaker 1: mile with payroll. Now, Jerry Depoto is not going to
13:29
Speaker 1: sit here and tell us that and rip his owners
13:32
Speaker 1: by kind of saying, hey, guys, I'm just kind of
13:35
Speaker 1: hamstrung right now. He's never going to say that. He's
13:37
Speaker 1: always going to put his best foot forward and best
13:40
Speaker 1: face on the situation. Every GM would do that. But
13:44
Speaker 1: at the same time, fans know, media knows, people know
13:48
Speaker 1: that this is not the best possible version of the Mariners,
13:52
Speaker 1: because the best possible version of the Mariners would include
13:55
Speaker 1: more offense.
13:56
Speaker 4: Put it that way, The Royals tried to add more
13:59
Speaker 4: off The Royals tried to add Anthony Santander. My question
14:03
Speaker 4: to you, because you hear all you know some of
14:06
Speaker 4: the inner workings of these things. It came out that
14:09
Speaker 4: he had already agreed when the Royals came back with
14:12
Speaker 4: their final to last offer. He had already agreed to
14:15
Speaker 4: the blue Jays offer. Have you ever heard of anybody
14:18
Speaker 4: going back on an agreement in the sense of like
14:21
Speaker 4: what Santan Dare did, in the sense where he didn't
14:25
Speaker 4: go back. He said, Hey, I agree to what the
14:27
Speaker 4: Blue Jays are offering me, and no, I can't take
14:30
Speaker 4: your offer, even though supposedly it might have been higher
14:33
Speaker 4: in a today value.
14:36
Speaker 1: So you're asking if a player ever had a deal
14:38
Speaker 1: in place and then said, ah, we're good, I'm going
14:41
Speaker 1: to go over here. I'm sure it's happened, Eric, And
14:44
Speaker 1: I'm probably someone who's reported on things like that, but
14:48
Speaker 1: generally speaking, that's not an honorable thing to do. And
14:51
Speaker 1: he had agreed with Toronto, and now people had asked,
14:53
Speaker 1: I saw after I reported that, Hey, what took the
14:57
Speaker 1: Royals so long? They were negotiating with him. They had
15:00
Speaker 1: been negotiating with him the shorter deals, and they got
15:03
Speaker 1: to a certain point. But by that time he was
15:06
Speaker 1: down the road with Toronto. That does happen. That's not
15:08
Speaker 1: that unusual, but I have not heard of players going back.
15:12
Speaker 1: It was just an interesting thing to me, and I
15:14
Speaker 1: reported today that the Angels were in on a shorter
15:17
Speaker 1: term deal with Santander as well. He wanted the ninety
15:20
Speaker 1: two point five million, even though two thirds of it's deferred.
15:24
Speaker 1: The present day value is much lower, and the three
15:26
Speaker 1: or four year deal he might have gotten from the
15:29
Speaker 1: Royals or Angels probably would have been similar in present
15:32
Speaker 1: day value. But a lot of times players liked the
15:35
Speaker 1: big number, agents liked the big number, and that's what
15:38
Speaker 1: he took. He also took a five year commitment, where
15:41
Speaker 1: the other teams were not offering that length.
15:44
Speaker 3: Ken I remember a guy, Jermaine Die when we won
15:46
Speaker 3: the World Series in two thousand and five. He signed
15:49
Speaker 3: with the White Sox. Another team came in at the end.
15:50
Speaker 3: I don't remember the team, but they said, hey, whatever
15:53
Speaker 3: he signed for, let's say he signed for five million.
15:55
Speaker 3: Another team came in and said we'll give you six
15:56
Speaker 3: and he said, too late. I already agreed with the
15:59
Speaker 3: White Sox. I can't go back to them, and changed
16:00
Speaker 3: my mind. It was an honorable thing. Most most players,
16:05
Speaker 3: you know, if they if they've agreed now I'm sure
16:07
Speaker 3: there's been times where they've changed their mind, but most
16:09
Speaker 3: players that I've ever heard of, once they say yes
16:12
Speaker 3: to a team, they go to that team. I mean,
16:15
Speaker 3: it's just it's just the right. Like you said, it's
16:17
Speaker 3: the honorable thing to do. It's the right thing to do,
16:19
Speaker 3: and if your agent's being right and truthful to you,
16:22
Speaker 3: it's what you should.
16:23
Speaker 1: Do right, absolutely aj And granted, sometimes funky things happen
16:29
Speaker 1: in negotiations. It's just the nature of it, and especially
16:32
Speaker 1: in situations like the Winter meetings where there's a lot
16:36
Speaker 1: of action and with bigger names, sometimes things are really flying.
16:40
Speaker 1: I remember the Iron Judge negotiations. There was a lot
16:42
Speaker 1: going on those last couple of days. But at the
16:45
Speaker 1: same time, players and their agents generally know which direction
16:49
Speaker 1: they're going in and they don't change on a dime
16:51
Speaker 1: like that. Obviously, if the money from someone else is
16:54
Speaker 1: much greater, then maybe they think about it. And I'm
16:57
Speaker 1: sure it's happened. I can't imagine it. This has not happen. Happened,
17:00
Speaker 1: but I just don't think it's common at all.
17:04
Speaker 2: Also, if you want the player badly enough, you make
17:06
Speaker 2: your best offer, you go for it. You're aggressive, you
17:09
Speaker 2: get stuff done early, and if not, which many teams do,
17:12
Speaker 2: they pay the price for that. And the rules have
17:14
Speaker 2: been aggressive in the past. But just throwing that out
17:16
Speaker 2: there because I'm a little bit sick of signings in February.
17:20
Speaker 2: But it is what it is. That's how these front
17:22
Speaker 2: office is like to play. But I'm not bitter about
17:24
Speaker 2: it anyway, Ken, Thank you.
17:26
Speaker 1: Actually, Scott, let me make a point on that, because
17:28
Speaker 1: this is, in my opinion, a definite strategy that the
17:32
Speaker 1: teams are taking with the remaining free agents. They're essentially
17:35
Speaker 1: bleeding them and they're essentially saying we will wait and
17:38
Speaker 1: wait and wait until we get the price we want.
17:41
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily care for that, because, as you said, Scott,
17:44
Speaker 1: if you want a player, go get him. But this
17:46
Speaker 1: is an effective negotiating strategy and because there is no
17:50
Speaker 1: deadline and nothing is to stop any team from continuing
17:54
Speaker 1: on and on and on with players when it gets
17:57
Speaker 1: to this point of the offseason. And I'm not talking
17:59
Speaker 1: about Alonzo and Bregman and Piveta so much. I'm talking
18:02
Speaker 1: about the lesser players, the medium range players. These guys
18:07
Speaker 1: are in a tough spot because the teams are trying
18:09
Speaker 1: to get them to sign minor league deals, non roster deals,
18:12
Speaker 1: and they all want major league deals, and they just
18:15
Speaker 1: keep waiting, and there's a glut of these players. There's
18:18
Speaker 1: not enough jobs to go around. And for the owners
18:21
Speaker 1: and the teams, this is the way that they believe
18:24
Speaker 1: is the best way to go, and I cannot argue
18:26
Speaker 1: with that. From their perspective, it's just not a kinder,
18:30
Speaker 1: gentler form of going about it.
18:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not great business. Hey, we don't love you
18:35
Speaker 2: enough to give you this money, so we're gonna squeeze
18:37
Speaker 2: you into February. But more from Ken coming up on
18:40
Speaker 2: Thursday on Fair Territory Ken. We'll talk see thanks guys.
18:44
Speaker 2: Thank you there. It is Fair Territory. Go check it out.
18:48
Speaker 2: It's live on Thursdays on the Foul Territory YouTube channel.
18:57
Speaker 2: Baseball Perspective Pakota Actions, shall we you want to go
19:03
Speaker 2: division by division? Let's do it dealer's choice as in
19:11
Speaker 2: the Notorious Jeremy behind the scenes. You get to tell
19:14
Speaker 2: us what you I know what he's starting with. I
19:18
Speaker 2: don't know.
19:19
Speaker 4: I America last, Yeah, Red, go ahead and switch it now, Jared,
19:25
Speaker 4: we know you had that one queued up first.
19:28
Speaker 2: Yea all right, And I gotta make sure I'm giving
19:33
Speaker 2: some verbal here because people are listening later on Yankees
19:39
Speaker 2: eighty nine point seven? Are you guys cool if I
19:41
Speaker 2: just round up so like Yankees ninety wins Orioles eighty
19:44
Speaker 2: nine wins, Blue Jay's eighty four wins, Raise eighty two wins,
19:49
Speaker 2: Red Sox seventy nine wins, with a fourteen point seven
19:53
Speaker 2: percent chance to make the postseason. AJ your thoughts.
19:57
Speaker 5: I think the Red Sox should be higher.
19:59
Speaker 3: I think the race should lower, and I think that Gosh,
20:03
Speaker 3: the Yankees only eighty nine and ninety wins, I don't
20:05
Speaker 3: know that's that's an interesting one. But for me, the
20:07
Speaker 3: Red Sox need to be highed in seventy nine. I think,
20:10
Speaker 3: you know, with the additions they made of Crochet and
20:14
Speaker 3: Walker Bueller and some of the other additions they've made,
20:18
Speaker 3: I think they should be higher than seventy nine. They
20:20
Speaker 3: should be more like a eighty two to eighty four.
20:24
Speaker 3: I'm flipping the O's and the Yanks. I really think
20:27
Speaker 3: that close. I think it's I mean, I don't think
20:31
Speaker 3: they're off. I think those teams are going to battle
20:33
Speaker 3: it out the whole year. I think the predisposed idea
20:38
Speaker 3: of how the you know, Baltimore kind of faltered in
20:41
Speaker 3: the second half, not kind of did. I just think
20:44
Speaker 3: I think the Orioles can overtake the Yankees, but I
20:47
Speaker 3: think they're both going to have I think they're both
20:49
Speaker 3: going to run away with the division.
20:51
Speaker 4: Again. I think it's really I mean, what are we
20:54
Speaker 4: saying Boston should be above the Rays? The Blue Jays
20:58
Speaker 4: say they're active. I don't know. I guess I guess
21:01
Speaker 4: I would disagree with AJ only because, like I don't
21:06
Speaker 4: think they've improved their defense enough. The Red Sox so
21:09
Speaker 4: I just feel like you're just gonna have a lot
21:11
Speaker 4: of bloodbath games because they just don't pick the ball
21:14
Speaker 4: too well.
21:16
Speaker 2: I think the Blue Jays should look at this and go, hey,
21:18
Speaker 2: if we get one more player, we might be projected
21:21
Speaker 2: to the upper eighties and kind of do some things.
21:25
Speaker 2: You know, if you get Pete Alonzo and then you've
21:27
Speaker 2: got a bow bounce back and Vladdie and Jimenez manning second,
21:30
Speaker 2: and you got Max maybe giving you twenty starts and
21:33
Speaker 2: offfmen thriving in the bullpen, it's a better team.
21:36
Speaker 5: That's a lot of the think about it. That's a lot.
21:42
Speaker 5: I'll say that's about the Red Sox.
21:45
Speaker 3: If the Red Sox get a full healthy year out
21:47
Speaker 3: of Trevor Story, that'd be a major upgrade for their defense.
21:52
Speaker 3: If they can stick Jaron D. Ransomwhere they can figure out,
21:55
Speaker 3: you know, the outfield with who they put where. You know,
21:58
Speaker 3: Bray is a goal glover and right, so they kind
22:00
Speaker 3: of have that. I think a full healthy year out
22:02
Speaker 3: of Tristan Casses and I think their defense automatically approves.
22:05
Speaker 3: They become a better team.
22:07
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, that's the one. That's the one though where
22:09
Speaker 2: Red Sox fans are like, wait, did we get better
22:12
Speaker 2: or not? We overachieved last year. So let's see. That's
22:17
Speaker 2: the interesting one for me. Next up and l least
22:21
Speaker 2: Braves ninety two wins, Met eighty nine wins, Phillies eighty
22:24
Speaker 2: eight wins, National seventy four wins, Marlins sixty two wins,
22:29
Speaker 2: Crats eighty eight wins for the Phillies.
22:36
Speaker 4: I mean, let's put it this way. If the Mets
22:38
Speaker 4: finish above the Phillies, it's because of what's happened the
22:41
Speaker 4: last two years. The Mets really just they dominate the
22:46
Speaker 4: Phillies in the sense that like they know how to
22:49
Speaker 4: pitch them. That showed in the playoffs in twenty three. No, yeah,
22:54
Speaker 4: in twenty three when the Braves, when when they beat
22:58
Speaker 4: the Braves, the Phillies beat the Braves and the Mets
23:00
Speaker 4: ended up losing like that was a team that they
23:03
Speaker 4: didn't want to that they didn't want to see or
23:06
Speaker 4: maybe no, I'm sorry, not twenty three. In twenty In
23:09
Speaker 4: twenty two, when the Phillies went to the World Series,
23:11
Speaker 4: they couldn't figure out the Mets. So, yeah, the Mets
23:14
Speaker 4: could finish above. I still think the Braves are the
23:17
Speaker 4: team to beat in this division. I just feel like
23:20
Speaker 4: they have so much depth. So could it be a race.
23:25
Speaker 4: I think the Phillies are over over the Mets. I
23:27
Speaker 4: think they take them by like two or three games.
23:30
Speaker 4: But okay, I'm I'm not totally homer that I can't
23:33
Speaker 4: see this happening.
23:35
Speaker 2: And the real thing AJ they have those three bunched
23:37
Speaker 2: up together, which I think most people anticipate.
23:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, my thing is Miami a hunter losses take the
23:44
Speaker 3: under take. The under take.
23:46
Speaker 5: The under well can counter that.
23:48
Speaker 2: They They're always going to be ultra conservative on the
23:53
Speaker 2: high and the low. That's like part of their projection model.
23:57
Speaker 2: So they're not going to give teams, you know, one
23:59
Speaker 2: hundred eight wins. They're not going to get teams one
24:02
Speaker 2: hundred yet losses.
24:04
Speaker 5: I know.
24:04
Speaker 3: But Miami take over. Sorry when I said take the
24:06
Speaker 3: endnament under on the wins over on the losses, yep,
24:09
Speaker 3: because they're in a tough division and they haven't signed anybody.
24:13
Speaker 3: If anything, they've gotten rid of their whole team. So
24:16
Speaker 3: I think Washington will win more than seventy four. I
24:18
Speaker 3: think they're going to be closer to five hundred, which
24:20
Speaker 3: is going to come down to Atlanta, New York and
24:22
Speaker 3: Philly who probably plays best against Miami and Washington to
24:24
Speaker 3: win this division.
24:26
Speaker 5: I like these I think Philly. I still like Philly though.
24:30
Speaker 3: I think Philly if they play up to their potential
24:32
Speaker 3: again where you talk about ifs, I think they're right there.
24:34
Speaker 3: I don't know if I trust Atlanta's rotation. You know,
24:38
Speaker 3: with the way it is, you need to stay healthy
24:41
Speaker 3: again if they stay healthy, and for the Mets, you know,
24:44
Speaker 3: you need a healthy Singa. You need Manaia to have
24:46
Speaker 3: a year like he had last year.
24:49
Speaker 2: You need.
24:51
Speaker 3: Play homes. Is he going to be a starter. I
24:54
Speaker 3: just think that you know it's Pete Alonso going to
24:56
Speaker 3: come back. There's a lot of question marks still there,
25:00
Speaker 3: but I think Philly.
25:01
Speaker 5: For some reason.
25:02
Speaker 3: I'm not going Amocrats homersh but I think Philly still
25:05
Speaker 3: has enough to possibly win this division. Now, do I
25:07
Speaker 3: think the Braves and Mets can get in one hundred percent?
25:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, Philly's got to be higher.
25:12
Speaker 1: For me.
25:12
Speaker 2: I think that's gonna be a really good regular season team,
25:14
Speaker 2: just like they were last year. NL West is next.
25:16
Speaker 2: I mean, this is like really going forward for Pacoda.
25:19
Speaker 2: One hundred and four wins for the Dodgers and a
25:23
Speaker 2: ninety nine point two percent chance of making the playoffs,
25:26
Speaker 2: ninety six percent chance of winning the division. They've got
25:29
Speaker 2: eighty seven wins for the Diamondbacks, eighty two wins for
25:31
Speaker 2: the Padres, seventy eight wins for the Giants, and fifty
25:35
Speaker 2: six wins for the Rockies. AJ, how did they do there?
25:39
Speaker 2: That tracks?
25:40
Speaker 1: For me?
25:41
Speaker 3: I think it all crushes. I don't know if playoff
25:43
Speaker 3: percentage for the Dodgers has got to be higher. I
25:45
Speaker 3: don't know how what the point eight percent is. I
25:47
Speaker 3: don't know what can happen, Like what can happen? Freeman
25:50
Speaker 3: Betts Smith Muncie show, Hey all get hurt and missed
25:55
Speaker 3: the year. Yamamoto, Glass, now Snell, Suzaki all missed the year.
26:02
Speaker 3: Like how I just don't still have more the playoffs,
26:05
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. They still have more guys coming.
26:08
Speaker 3: I just don't know how they don't make the playoffs.
26:11
Speaker 5: So yeah, other not.
26:12
Speaker 3: I think the number, you know, you can you can
26:13
Speaker 3: argue semantics, but I think the.
26:15
Speaker 5: Way they set them up is pretty close to how
26:17
Speaker 5: it's gonna be. I need to see that again.
26:23
Speaker 4: I think if Jerry mind putting that throwing that back
26:26
Speaker 4: up there. I feel like there's something about the way
26:31
Speaker 4: that Diamondbacks lost last year and just the team just
26:35
Speaker 4: being pissed off about it. Like I feel like the
26:37
Speaker 4: Diamondbacks could go over ninety wins. I know that's I
26:41
Speaker 4: know that's high. The team's never done that, but the
26:44
Speaker 4: ad the ads that they have, and the the age
26:49
Speaker 4: of their elite MVP caliber players in Corbyn Carroll in
26:55
Speaker 4: Ktel Martet, just feel like this could be a big
26:59
Speaker 4: year for Diamondbacks. In no way relaxed Dodgers fans, you know,
27:02
Speaker 4: am I saying that Diamondbacks are taking the Dodgers spot
27:05
Speaker 4: in the division. I'm just saying, I think I think
27:08
Speaker 4: that's I think that's low. And we talked about that
27:10
Speaker 4: it's low or a little high for some teams, but
27:13
Speaker 4: it's I like them for ninety.
27:16
Speaker 2: Let's do one more al central under for the whole division.
27:24
Speaker 2: They've got the Twins winning the division eighty six wins.
27:29
Speaker 2: They've got the Royals at eighty one wins and a
27:32
Speaker 2: thirty one percent chance of making the playoffs thirty two.
27:35
Speaker 2: If we're getting the decimal to go up Cleveland at
27:38
Speaker 2: eighty wins, Detroit at eighty wins, and the White Sox
27:43
Speaker 2: at sixty two wins. Age, I know you want to
27:45
Speaker 2: tell the world that the White Tacks are going to
27:47
Speaker 2: lose more games. Were with you, But do you feel
27:49
Speaker 2: like they're not giving enough credit to the rest of
27:51
Speaker 2: the division.
27:52
Speaker 3: Yes, one hundred percent. I feel like these they're not.
27:55
Speaker 3: And I also this reminds me of the Cardinals last year.
27:58
Speaker 3: Remember the Pakoda came out in the car were favored
28:00
Speaker 3: to win the division. We saw how that went. So
28:02
Speaker 3: for the Twins, yes, they they added Danny calum and
28:06
Speaker 3: he's a nice pitcher, but they haven't added any starters.
28:09
Speaker 3: They haven't added any offense. And again we keep talking
28:12
Speaker 3: about if if Royce Lewis stays healthy, if Bryan and
28:16
Speaker 3: Buckson stays healthy, if Edward Julian figures it out, if
28:18
Speaker 3: Carlos Korea can be healthy, if Ryan Jeffers is good
28:21
Speaker 3: Ryan Jeffers, if this guy, if this guy, if this guy.
28:24
Speaker 5: It's like there's a lot of ifs.
28:25
Speaker 3: Whereas the Royals made the playoffs last year, the Tigers
28:28
Speaker 3: made the playoffs last year, brought back Jack Flaherty, added
28:31
Speaker 3: some other pieces. The Royals added pieces. They made the
28:34
Speaker 3: playoffs last year. The Guardians won this division and they
28:37
Speaker 3: added some pieces. Now I know they lost Naylor, but
28:39
Speaker 3: they made some other moves and they're getting some guys,
28:41
Speaker 3: some starting pitchers back, So I just don't know. I
28:45
Speaker 3: feel like they're underving the three teams in the middle
28:47
Speaker 3: there that actually made the playoffs and the Twins who
28:49
Speaker 3: missed the playoffs.
28:51
Speaker 4: It reminds me the Cardinals from last year. The Cardinals.
28:56
Speaker 4: The Cardinals, I think we all hit well. I guess
28:58
Speaker 4: somebody picked the Cardinals and the wins division, but you know,
29:01
Speaker 4: I think we all saw that they just had lack
29:03
Speaker 4: of starting pitching. I think This comes down to exactly
29:06
Speaker 4: what you said. Aja other teams in that three. Obviously
29:10
Speaker 4: the White Sox didn't do anything, but those three teams,
29:13
Speaker 4: Kansas City, Cleveland, and Detroit tried to upgrade their team,
29:17
Speaker 4: and I think in different ways they did. I think
29:21
Speaker 4: Detroit added a little bit of bullpen. They brought back flarity,
29:25
Speaker 4: so maybe a whole season of flarity gives them that
29:28
Speaker 4: same bump. Again, Minnesota hasn't added anybody. They haven't added anybody,
29:34
Speaker 4: and yeah we've heard that they've tried to add starting pitching.
29:38
Speaker 4: But if you only go three deep when you're starting pitching,
29:41
Speaker 4: you're gonna have a tough time consistently winning. And what
29:44
Speaker 4: happens when you get tired, Oh you fade down the stretch.
29:48
Speaker 4: Even the best bullpens fade down the stretch.
29:50
Speaker 5: Like they did.
29:51
Speaker 4: So to me, I'm not putting Minnesota all the way
29:53
Speaker 4: at the bottom, but I feel like those three teams
29:58
Speaker 4: leapfroged Minnesota. So it's going to be another great year
30:01
Speaker 4: in the AL Central.
30:03
Speaker 3: Here's what I'm gonna say, if we show those standings again,
30:06
Speaker 3: you don't think one signing can affect the ALE Central.
30:09
Speaker 3: If one team goes out and makes some move. There's
30:12
Speaker 3: four teams basically within five games of each other, six
30:16
Speaker 3: games of each other, four of the five, one big signing,
30:19
Speaker 3: one big move. Let's say Detroit goes against Alex Pregman,
30:22
Speaker 3: right boom, that can give them two or three extra
30:24
Speaker 3: wins possibly that could win them the division.
30:27
Speaker 5: Right.
30:27
Speaker 3: It just shows you that if these teams are willing
30:29
Speaker 3: to make that move that can put them over the top,
30:32
Speaker 3: you can win this division.
30:33
Speaker 5: It is every year. It is a winnable division for
30:36
Speaker 5: whoever makes the right moves.
30:39
Speaker 2: Hey for that projection system which clearly likes war and
30:42
Speaker 2: wins above replacement. If you had Alex Pregman, I mean
30:44
Speaker 2: even last year, which was an okay year, he was
30:47
Speaker 2: a four win player. You know, he's consistently a four
30:50
Speaker 2: to five win player and his prime, if you think
30:52
Speaker 2: he can get back close to it, it's a seven eight,
30:54
Speaker 2: nine win player. So even if you split that difference, yes,
30:57
Speaker 2: I mean you could very much get a banger season
31:00
Speaker 2: from Bragmant and Habit. Make the difference