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Possible Coalitions scenarios · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: You're with John Pullman on 702.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Let's walk the talk.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Right, let's see if we can start plotting a route
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: through the Coalition Talks jungle. 14 days. It's complex, complicated
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: by the fact that there are so many hung councils.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: In other words, municipal, local government entities of various kinds
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: that do not have an absolute majority and therefore no
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: clear path as yet as to who might rule them. No,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: we don't get ruled in this country. Who might govern them?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we can find our way a little
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: bit more clearly with my next guest. Adrian Besson is
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: editing chief at News24. He's been plotting out various scenarios
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: for coalitions and he joins us now. Adrian, welcome and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: thanks very much for giving us your time. Before we
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: look at your scenarios, I'm struck by one thing. How much...
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: animosity is out there in some of the conversations. And
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: in particular, it seems two of the most difficult kind
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: of kiss and make up scenarios involve people who were
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: once partners. So on the one hand, Action SA and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: its key leaders and the Democratic Alliance on the other.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And then in the other scenario, further to the left
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: of the political spectrum, the ANC and the MK Party.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Is there any chance of anyone saying, listen, this really
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be personal, let's just do what makes most sense?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Or is the personal and some of the broader historical
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: grievance always going to play a part over the next
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: 14 days?
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, John. No, look, politics is always personal. I
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be impossible to completely remove the
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: history from these discussions, although the politicians are all telling
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: us at the moment that they are willing to speak
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: to all other parties and willing to consider all options.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: But I think, you know, specifically the two options you mentioned,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: quite a lot of bad blood and animosity between on
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: the one hand ANC and MK and then the DA
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: and Action SA.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Let's start with your first scenario, though. The DA and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the ANC made more complicated, I would think, by the
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: fact that the ANC itself is somewhat divided on whether
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: it should continue something that mirrors the current national arrangements. Yes.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Look, after last night, the ANC has much less options. So,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: you know, when you look at the numbers, as you
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: correctly said, there's 138 hung councils and For a lot
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: of good reasons, you and I have focused a lot
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: on the Gauteng Metro, specifically Joburg. But, you know, besides Joburg,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Twan and Ekreleni, there's another 135 hung councils in the country,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: including very big towns and small cities like Kimberley, Richards Bay,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Bombella in Pumalanga. The ANC didn't get over 50 this time.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: So the ANC desperately needs partners in... in most of
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: these 138 hung councils, in which most of them, they
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: will probably be the largest party and receive the mayorship. Now,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: to negotiate each of these 138 on its own merit
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: in two weeks sounds to me like an impossibility. It's
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: going to be very, very hard for the ANC to
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: allow the regional structures to do that. So just from
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: a pure technical, let's remove personality and emotion and history,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: just from a pure pragmatic point of view, an ANCDA
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: deal is the cleanest. It gets over 50 plus one
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: in most of these hung counsels. And then, you know,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: with the agreement of both parties that have said numerous
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: times they agree the largest party should be the mayor
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: in place. But of course, politics isn't simple. There'll be
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: more deals on the table. We remember in 2024, Cyril
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Ramaphosa specifically didn't want to do a coalition with the DA.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: He came up with this idea for a government of
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: national unity to include other smaller parties, which... makes it
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: more sellable and palatable for others in the ANC. And
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I think that's probably the likeliest route we are on
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: here is some kind of replication of the GNU at
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: local form.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: What you've done, and by the way, people go to
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: News24 because Adrian has looked at the colors of the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: different parties and then matched them to the colors of
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: national flags. So that deal is called Ukraine, not because
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: this is a deal done in a war zone, although
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: the political temperature is pretty high, but because the DA
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: blew and the yellow out of the ANC's yellow back
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: or gold, black and green. forms the flag colors of Ukraine.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, the ANC's other roots, and I guess Tswane
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to a degree is a representation of that, is the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Ghana flag. The ANC plus Action SA, which of course
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: has prominently and substantially its main colors, green and the EFF,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: obviously red. In how many municipalities could they do that deal?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: And you do, by the way, make the point that
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: those three together don't get you 50 plus one. You've
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: got to then have conversations with the African Transformation Movement, Borsa,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: the SACP, just to use them by way of illustration. Okay.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: So this option that excludes the DA, completely excludes the DA,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: that I called the Ghana option because of those three
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: big parties, ANC, Action SA and EFF, covers a few
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: of your metros. So they would be able to put
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: together a deal in the Gateng metros with the help
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: of smaller parties. But as I mentioned earlier, there's still
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: over 130 other councils, John, and a party like Action
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: SA simply doesn't have the support outside of Gateng that
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: the DA has, for example. So the ANC may want
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: to do a deal and promise some positions and probably
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: get the mayorship in some of the Gateng metros doing
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: a deal with Action and EFF. But what do they
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: do when they go outside of the province into other metros?
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: What do they do in Mangauung, for example, where they
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: have 30-something percent, I think 34% on par with the DA?
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: What do they do in Buffalo City, where they have 41%?
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: What do they do in Kimberley, et cetera, et cetera?
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: That option is definitely available, and I'm sure people like
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: the Gateng ANC convener, Pani Azalusufi, would prefer that option.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: In that option, the ANC would be the largest party
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: in Johannesburg, as well as in Ekreleni, and Action SA
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: was larger than the ANC in Soane. But that leaves
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: the ANC with much more problems outside of Gateng.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: DA and Action SA, if we're running a bookies, a
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: bookmaker of some sort, online betting, I don't think there'd
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: be a lot of money on that actually happening. Is
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: that out of the question in your view? That's your
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Lesotho option, just going back to a flag analogy. I mean,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: how do you see it? Look ….
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, what's interesting about this option, the
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: DA action is that option, John, is, and, you know,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: my colleague Carol Payton wrote today in a very good
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: column on News 24 that two-thirds of voters didn't vote
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: for the ANC in this election. Yes. You know, this election,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: there was a very clear message that we need to
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: get rid of or people want the ANC out of government. Now,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: this option, you know, in a perfect world where there
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: was no history and baggage and personal egos, which has
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: been such an interesting new form of government. If you
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: think about it, in Johannesburg, in Soane, and in Ekraleni,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: the DA and Action SA can govern without the ANC,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: without any other party. So it could have held it
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: in a really strong and big break from the ANC
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: era in South African politics. But I just don't see
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: it happening. I don't. If you bring in the personalities,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: the way that Mashaba left the DA in 20, when
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: was it, 2019, the things Helen Zilla and Mashaba have
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: said about each other. Mashaba just last night called Zilla
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: a racist on national TV. I just, I can't see
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: this deal getting over the line as much as appealing
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: as it may be to the voters of those two
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: parties and specifically the voters of Action SA.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: You know, voted, Previously for the ANC, if you analyze
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: the wards that flipped to Action SA, those were ANC wards.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Those are people who said, we don't want to be
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: governed by the ANC anymore. We want Action SA. And,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: you know, this deal is on the table. It's technically
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: on the table, but there's just too much baggage. There's
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: too much bad blood. And then also the DA outside
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: of Gapting, the same as the ANC, would need support
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: of other parties, including the ANC.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: And just finally, if I can loop back to where
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I started about, you know, bad breakups, I suppose, is
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: a theme. The ANC and the MK Party don't seem
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: to come into your... coalition possibilities as potential partners i
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: mean there would be some people in the inner divided
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: anc saying you know it's time to uh mend that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: particular fence but there would be others saying well actually
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: not uh there's there's bad blood there as well and
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: maybe some nostalgia those two against each other you you
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: don't factor it in tell us why.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Look, the numbers don't work out. MK is only really
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: a big player in Etiquine, in KwaZulu-Natal, and of course
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: in other councils in KwaZulu-Natal. Some won outright and then
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: others hung. MK is a KZN party and just the
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: MK and the ANC alone together in a place like
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Johannesburg doesn't even get close to 50%. I mean, the
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: ANC is now a 20% party in Gateng, John, and
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: the MK is around 10%. So, So just the two
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: of them together don't get over the line. In Etiquene,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: you have the fascinating scenario. And I love watching Etiquene
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: politics forever. But in Etiquene, the MK didn't get to 40%.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: Whereas the DA is now the second largest party in Durban, Etiquene,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: followed by the ANC and the IFP. The three of
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: them together... do get over the 50% line. So again,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: it's very attractive to think that the current government of
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: provincial unity in KwaZulu-Natal, those three parties, could just be
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: replicated at city level in Etikwini and keep the MK out.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: There's still a lot of bad blood. There's still a
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: lot of ANC people who feel that Zuma was spiteful,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: that he started the MK, defying the ANC, defying Sula
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Ramaphosa after he broke the ANC's. I don't think that
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: deal at a national level at least is going to
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: work out.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Adrian Besson, check out what he's
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: written and the graphics he's got to go with it
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: on the News24 site where he is editor-in-chief. 702 Drive
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Business Time.