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Vestas Withholds Collapse Data, Nordex Iowa and Tariffs · Uptime Podcast – Weather Guard Lightning Tech

• Uptime 314 � Transcript [00:00:00] The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by StrikeTape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit strikeTape.com. And now your hosts. Allen Hall Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I'm Allen Hall and I'm here with Rosemary Barnes. And Fergus is here. Hi. Welcome to our top story. This week is a wind turbine collapse that happened in South Korea at the Changpo Wind Power Complex in Yeongdeok, and the turbine lost a blade. There's some video here that was recorded when the turbine collapsed, so it happened a couple of months ago, and investigators have been trying to determine the cause of that failure. They're having a little bit of difficulty because they would like to access the SCADA system of that turbine because that would have a lot of more information about [00:01:00] how the tower was operating at that particular moment. And they're having trouble in that it is a Vestas turbine and Vestas has not released the SCADA data and it's citing an expired warranty. Now, Rosemary, this leads to a lot of problems because obviously there's a ton of sensors in wind turbines today, and they can help determine causes of failures pretty rapidly. But without it, you're just really looking at video in this particular collapse. Rosemary Barnes It's amazing that you can look at video. The video is far more useful than the SCADA data is, probably. Um, yeah, it's, well, I've never actually, like, I've worked on a lot of RCAs and I've never actually got to see video footage of the incident, so that's actually really cool that they've got this dash cam footage. Looking at it now, you can, um, see the lower, probably two thirds of the turbine tower, so you can see the blades coming past. I wish the video would start just like 10 seconds earlier. [00:02:00] Um, because maybe you can see a bit of wobble in the tower. You can see that one of the blades is already missing a tip, or the tip kind of flies off anyway, so maybe it was bent. So definitely looks to me like the root cause was that there was a blade failure. The, um, part of the blade broke off, caused a rotor imbalance, which then meant that one of the blades hit the tower and then it's really easy for a tower to buckle once it's got some damage in it. So that, that in itself, like, that's not an uncommon scenario. Um, and yeah, for sure, like you would ask for the SCADA data, but, uh, I don't think it's accurate that they're saying. There must have been a faulty sensor or something because when there's a rotor imbalance, it should stop, um, stop the turbine. But I do know from experience, it does not always stop the turbine quickly enough to stop this happening. So, um, I'm not, I'm not sure that the SCADA data would tell you anything [00:03:00] groundbreaking. However, I think it is very interesting Vestas are very publicly not sharing because it's out of warranty because to me, access to the SCADA data is a key part of being able to operate your turbine safely. And you don't sell a turbine � like you might sell a turbine with a two year warranty, sure, but that doesn't mean that you are selling a turbine that can only be operated safely for two years. That's just like absolutely insane and contrary to � at least a lot of the world's laws, there's laws around, you know, how safely you can operate equipment, and especially energy generation assets have specific laws about that. You have to be able to operate them safely and yeah, from what we can see here, like you can't get access to the SCADA data. So in, in this case, I don't know if there was a problem with the turbine controller that contributed to this problem. I, I mean, I'm, I'm always a bit surprised that a turbine can shake itself apart and it's not, you know, there isn't a sensor in there that can stop it in time to stop the collapse because if you take just the population of turbines that have collapsed, which is, you know, [00:04:00] very, very few from considering the whole global population, but looking at those ones that have collapsed, it's pretty common way that it happens is from, um, part of a blade falling off and then a rotor imbalance causing the tower to, um, start wobbling and the blades to hit the tower. Allen Hall So would it be in the control laws, Rosemary, where the shutdown would happen in terms of detecting vibration or motion? Maybe swing of the tower? Would that would then drive a safety circuit? Rosemary Barnes At a certain, at a certain level? Um, 'cause all of those, like the rotor does get in a bit of imbalance. The tower does accelerate in, you know, four and a half side to side, that all happens and can happen like quite, quite a lot as well. Like if you're inside a wind turbine and when they stop it, um, then it makes like a very noticeable shudder right as that stops. And if you do an emergency stop, um, hopefully not while, you know, hopefully you're not inside the tower when it goes from full, um, operation [00:05:00] to stopping as soon as, as quickly as possible. But that does make a big, um, jump. So, you know, like it's not shutting down every time that there's some kind of imbalance or, um, tower acceleration. But yeah, it just, the thing is, it's, you just, they're big and heavy, right? And there's just so much inertia in the system that things can't happen that fast. Like even if the control system can respond really quickly, it doesn't mean that it can respond � like it can actually physically stop things before it's had, you know, even one rotation to hit the tower, um, can be enough. What's really interesting is that it could be a control system problem, right? That would � that they have now learned. There's some faulty logic they need to replace it across the wind farm. But Vestas is saying, we're not gonna tell you if that's the case or not, because you can't access this data. And I think that that is really interesting because like I'm constantly frustrated by how little, um, cooperation you can get for root cause analysis and like you can [00:06:00] understand it, no one wants to share their data, but it is in theory covered by laws, at least in, uh, Australian states. You, you know, that you, you're required to provide information to operate the assets safely for its lifetime. And I, it just, to me is really highlighting that that's not the case. It's, it's not an unusual situation, is kind of what I'm saying. Um, it's very common that they don't wanna cooperate, and I'm surprised that they're happy to say that so, so publicly. Allen Hall Well, the threshold needs to be set somewhere when investigators are looking into an accident like this. I always think you try to help the investigators as much as you can. In the airplane world when there's an accident, that's one of the first things that happens is they go pull all the data from the aircraft and then go search through it and see what happened. In the wind turbine world, that's not necessarily the case, but there is a lot of data at all the OEMs, and it's not necessarily locked into the turbine. It's usually remote access, so it would be very easy to give access to [00:07:00] investigators. So it's, it's curious to me as to why there's any hesitation at all if the Korean investigators wanna see the data, just give it to 'em. Rosemary Barnes Yeah. Especially because like from just the brief look that I've had, it doesn't look like it's gonna turn out that there's some problem with the turbine controller. If Vestas aren't to blame, it would be much easier for them to just privately release the data under an NDA and say, look, hey, it's nothing. It's not here. But I will say that, um, in the RCAs that I've worked on, safety regulators can compel data from the owner and the operator, but it's not so clear that they have the right to get data from the manufacturer. When you've got full service agreements, you can get that because the manufacturer is the operator. But in this case, if Vestas had nothing to do with the operation, then like, I don't know what the laws are in South Korea, but it is possible at least that they don't have any right to compel Vestas for the data. Um, for the data. And I think that [00:08:00] is wrong. And, um, this, you know, will hopefully highlight to people, safety regulators around the world � hey, you know, do we need to be changing this regulation a little bit to make sure that when you sell a wind turbine, or you know, any, anything else, any other big bit of industrial equipment, when you sell it, you have to � you have to provide enough information for the life of the wind turbine to operate it safely. Doesn't mean you need to give away all your trade secrets, but it needs to be safe. And part of that is when you have a catastrophic failure, you do need to make sure that this is not gonna repeat itself across the whole wind farm or across, you know, every turbine of this type in the world. That's why you do a root cause analysis after the fact. Like you're not saving this turbine. It's in like absolute pieces on the ground, right? Like the most value you'll ever get out of this turbine again is probably recycling the steel. Um, that'll be the most value. So you don't do the root cause analysis for the lost asset. You do it to make sure that you understand what's happened and you are [00:09:00] able to, um, know ahead of time if this is a risk for future assets. Um, and you can't, yeah, you cannot do that if you don't have all the data. So, yeah. Very interesting. Allen Hall Like we talked about at the WOMA conference a few months ago, access to SCADA data is paramount for a lot of operators. And, uh, when contracts are assigned, a lot of times that is not lined into the contract � that I will have full access to the SCADA data � and it can be, which I think a lot of operators don't even consider. So that's a negotiated item for most contracts and most wind turbine purchases. Especially in Europe now with the new data laws in Europe. I think all the OEMs have to provide that data regardless if there's an accident or not. You just have � yeah, I think they have to give full access. The means of doing it, I think it's being implemented this year. Well, it sounds like talking to operators they are just getting some of that data, but once that door opens in Europe, do you think the rest of the world will probably follow? Rosemary Barnes Yeah, I mean, it's one thing, like they don't want you reverse engineering their [00:10:00] IP. That's, that's basically it. All their trade secrets. Allen Hall Could you do that? I mean, that, that, that's always the, the, the real issue, right? So I hear that quite a bit from OEMs. We don't want you to reverse engineer the turbine, but can you do that from the SCADA data? That seems like an impossible task. Rosemary Barnes I also don't think that anybody is doing anything that tricky, that it's really gonna be worth the, the effort, you know. And it's one thing, like it's annoying � you can't access the control system. Um, so you can't make improvements, you know, like you could get a bit more yield out of your wind farm if you can start doing things like wake steering or, you know, changing the speed of operation to, um, you know, depending on environmental conditions, and those, like you, you can improve your operations a bit from that. And so it's been annoying that you, you can't actually do those cool projects because you can't get into the control system. And you know, there exist companies that will come in and take a, a, you know, 10-year-old wind turbine, rip out the control system, put in a new [00:11:00] one, and people go through that whole painful, expensive process just so that they can get control over operation and the data. And that's, that's annoying. And, you know, maybe getting an extra, you know, I don't know, two or 3% AEP out of your wind farm is a big deal. But, um, you know, that's on the one hand. But on the other hand, when it comes to being able to safely operate your asset, it just shouldn't be any question. You know? And I don't know why a manufacturer would be really digging their heels in on this because like I do see, and I hope that this is the kind of incident that makes safety regulators go, hey, you know, this isn't, this isn't cool. This is not okay, that we don't have the information we need to make sure that these turbines are safe across the rest of the, um, the country, you know. Like an overzealous safety regulator could easily be like, oh, okay, well we don't have a root cause, we can't rule out that there's not a fleet-wide problem � all of these Vestas turbines across, um, South [00:12:00] Korea have to shut down now. You know, like that, that is a potential outcome that could happen. That would be terrible for Vestas. Um, so I just don't understand why they don't just give the data. � SPONSOR: PES WIND MAGAZINE � Allen Hall As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial � and let's face it, difficult. That's why the Uptime Podcast recommends PES Wind Magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you're an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high quality content you need. Don't miss out. Visit PESwind.com today. Allen Hall Well, a wind turbine factory in West Branch, Iowa just reopened after sitting idle for 12 years and already its workers are worried about tariffs. Nordex restarted the facility in July of last year to manufacture nacelles and drivetrains for the American and Canadian markets. [00:13:00] Orders are strong for this Nordex facility. Alliant Energy awarded Nordex contracts for up to 190 turbines � that's pretty good � representing over 1,060 megawatts of capacity, the largest single award in the company's 25-year history in American operations. Uh, but the concerns at the Nordex facility at the moment have to do with tariffs, where a lot of the components that are coming into the factory are running into hefty tariffs, which makes the margins really tough for Nordex to operate that plant. Uh, so the tax advantages of having a facility in the United States are really being offset by some of these extra taxes that are being levied on wind turbine components. Uh, this is not the only facility in Iowa that must be thinking hard about this. The TPI facility in Iowa that is going through the bankruptcy hearings at the moment. [00:14:00] There's an offer from a company to buy that facility, or acquire that facility, and a couple of the TPI facilities down in Mexico. As it stands, GE is backing the Iowa plant in case those initial purchases of those factories fall through � GE would like to have the Iowa factory, most likely for tax purposes, because some of the projects probably depend upon the tax advantages of building particularly blades and large components like nacelles in the US. So Iowa is a real key here. The restart and some of the increased operations in the United States are indicative of how things are going, I think, globally in the wind energy world, where factories have been closed or they've been considering closing a number of factories in Europe and trying to find key places to manufacture components where maybe the tariffs are lower or the operational costs are lower, or [00:15:00] labor costs are lower. Uh, we're seeing a real big shuffle at the moment. Do you think that this is gonna settle up very quickly? 'Cause it does seem like there is a migration to the UK because of the amount of money being spent in the United Kingdom, and a migration out of Northern Europe, and probably a migration out of America over time. Rosemary Barnes I mean, it's interesting how much governments are playing a role. You know, government policies are playing a role in where manufacturing is happening. Um, I think it's not even like you would've said until really recently that you put factories where labor is cheap. And, you know, for the really big components, you want to get roughly close to where the final project is, or at least close to a port so that you can get on a ship and, you know, 'cause um, overland transport is an issue. Um, but now I don't even think that the labor is the main factor anymore, and maybe even [00:16:00] the geographical location in the world is not even the biggest issue now. It's about, you know, where are the favorable conditions, and whether that's because, you know, because of tariffs. And so I do think that we see in the UK the biggest thing that they have � it's certainly not cheap labor, right? Um, it is, it's pretty well located for a lot of projects. Um, the UK government has got a good, um, plan for, you know, a decade or more into the future. Right. You know, they've also executed on some of those, so we know that it's not all just talk, and they've got some pretty good certainty about these projects and how the economics are going to work out. Allen Hall The UK is a good example of, of maybe a process that's going well at the moment, but the long-term prospects I think is where everybody gets a little bit nervous. This thing that happened in America like two years ago where everybody was really excited about creating new factories � and then we get down the line a little bit and now we're not happy to have factories. It really depends upon how [00:17:00] dedicated the government is and how many, uh, barriers they put in to prevent the money from going away. Right? When you lock in long-term funding where it doesn't put the projects at risk, then it's great, but if it can be wiped away by the next administration or just the passage of a single bill, then it just makes it really risky. Rosemary Barnes I think I just wanted to make the point that, you know, labor is expensive in the UK, but that doesn't mean that they can't have manufacturing, even, you know, like wind turbine blades at least are a very labor intensive thing to manufacture compared to most things these days. Um, but even then it's not the most important thing anymore. So, you know, um, any country has the ability to put in place the ingredients that would be needed to get, uh, manufacturing of wind turbines in their own country. Um, so, you know, it's a choice to a large extent, but people are scared to commit long term. You know, the manufacturers are scared to [00:18:00] commit a factory. Countries are scared to commit to a pipeline 'cause they don't wanna be, you know, interfering in the market. But it's just, it's a big lumpy market that just makes it hard for people to want to invest and commit. And so, you know, if you want that manufacturing in your country, then you can, you can get it if you give confidence. Allen Hall At what point do you make decisions about manufacturing for wind turbines or even solar panels in your country with what's happening in the Middle East? Does that really change the dynamic quite a bit, where the incremental cost delta of making it in-country is totally worth it with the knowledge that you'll be free of all, uh, connections to the Middle East and the turmoil that does seem to happen there every couple of years. Rosemary Barnes It's not like a direct enough link that it's gonna make people make that decision overnight. We're not buying our wind turbines from the Middle East currently, right? So, you know, existing turbine supply chain. So I think [00:19:00] it could definitely make you wanna turn up the pace at which you buy wind turbines and install them. And if you've got, you know, um, bigger pipelines, then it nudges you more and more towards local manufacturing. I guess that people are nervous in general of relying on other supply chains, um, or supply chains from overseas, but it's a huge difference between, you know, relying on liquid fuels, which are, you know, arriving every day and you need them to continue arriving every day. And if one strait gets closed and that's a 20% decline in the, you know, volume that can be moved around � you know, try and take 20% of, um, demand out of the system � and that's obviously huge. But if you had the same thing, if it was wind turbine blades being transported through the strait, then, um, you know, it'd be no new wind farms [00:20:00] this year. It wouldn't be that all of your existing wind turbines have to be turned off � like they keep on running. It's just that the future doesn't grow as fast as you would like it to. So I think it's just like a much slower timeframe for shocks if you are relying on, um, wind turbines and solar panels, even if they're made overseas. I still think that it is worth considering, like for security, like if you got into a big long war, and especially with, um, China because they're the ones that make most of, uh, solar panels and batteries � at least, not wind turbines, although they are a major manufacturer, they're not the majority for projects outside of China. Most countries are investing in some, you know, local capability to make things, you know, like Australia is investing in capacity to make solar panels, even though we know that we'll never make them as cheap as China. The US also has done a lot to encourage local manufacturing of solar panels. Um, everybody is [00:21:00] trying to make batteries. Um, so yeah, I think we are doing that. I heard on a podcast, I think it was the Energy Transition Show, reference to, you know, every country does their study about what is net zero gonna cost. Um, and whatever the study was done in the UK, the amount that the energy transition was gonna cost � net zero by 2050, what is the cost to the economy � um, and it was, I can't remember the number, some amount of trillions. They pointed out that that is the same as one crisis. Like what we're going through now costs about that same amount of money. Um, you know, one fuel crisis. So it's like if you can save yourself from one crisis, um, yeah, if you can insulate yourself from one crisis, it's paid for itself. Do we really think that in the next 24 years � and it's not just over 24 years, it's, you know, it's forever after that � do you think that there's only gonna be one? No way. There's gonna be lots. So I'm hopeful that, [00:22:00] um, this crisis is gonna get people thinking, hey, we can insure against this sort of thing by electrifying, um, that, you know, we've had oil shocks before. We'll have them again in the future. I mean, in Australia, like, I've heard international commentary saying things like, you know, Australia will be a winner out of this because we're such a big exporter of LNG. But in reality in Australia, there are petrol stations that don't have any diesel � um, like, you know, lots of them. So people with diesel cars are driving around and around and around to, um, you know, find somewhere where they can buy fuel. And in a just delicious piece of irony, like back two or three elections ago, um, the conservative party was having this point of difference with the more progressive party � the Labor party � that, you know, they wanted to promote EVs, and the coalition said they're gonna ruin your weekend. They're gonna end, they're gonna end the [00:23:00] weekend, I think was the saying, because yeah, like EVs, you can't go camping or whatever with an EV. And now we've got the Easter long weekend and people are legitimately saying I can't find fuel to drive to my plans for the Easter weekend. So now it's diesel specifically � you know, fossil fuel cars in general � that are ending the weekend. You know, people have had their weekend ended by, um, not having an EV this time around. So I think that it should really reframe people's thinking, refocus us. Allen Hall But isn't that what eventually happens � is that the realism hits, and so no matter what your ideology is or your thought process, you still have to deal with what's happening on the ground at any particular moment. And this is not the first time these events have happened, they're not gonna be the last time that they've happened. Your best mode of operation is to decouple from these events as much as [00:24:00] you can. Where I think the UK is headed. Obviously Norway has, in a sense, decoupled itself because of the amount of electric vehicles that it has and the natural resources that it has. Honestly, every country � every major country � if they can decouple, is going to try to decouple. Just to stop, uh, because it has seemed like in the United States, well, since the 1970s, it's just been this rocky road. And the discussion � at least you hear discussions here now more recently about what are we doing? We just keep doing the same thing and we end up with these trillion dollar spends to create some new future, and the future never really shifts all that much. Should we be involving ourselves in this? In terms of energy production, I think you see more of a push for more independent energy production and decoupling, which I think Australia's headed to and could do. The UK is [00:25:00] trying to do it, and other countries are trying to do it. If you have enough of an economy to do it, when energy is one of those things, I think you just can't not do it � you would need to be involved in solar and wind. You need to be involved in batteries and you need to be involved in LNG if you can do it, you need to be involved in nuclear if you can pull it off. All of the above is gonna be the answer for a lot of countries to get out of the strait. Rosemary Barnes I think the US is a bit different though, because, um, unlike many countries, you could become more energy secure or entirely energy secure without electrifying. I think that you, you have enough of the various different kinds of, um, fossil fuels that you could. Uh, and I'm sure that will be the response as well in the, at least immediate future in the US. Whereas other countries who don't have that option, we're forced to move into the future. And I think that, you know, is better for us in the long term. Allen Hall Well, this is the thing about Australia � and we pointed out at WOMA � [00:26:00] is Australia is leading the world in a lot of ways, and electrification is one of them. So the rest of the world is watching what happens in the way that Australia goes about it. A lot of wind, even more solar, and some batteries � and how that plays out's gonna affect where the rest of the world goes. That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. If today's discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we'd love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn. Don't forget to subscribe, so you never miss an episode. And if you have found value in today's conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show. So for Rosie � Yolanda and Matthew are on holiday � I'm Allen Hall and we'll see you here next time on the Uptime Wind Energy [00:27:00] Podcast.