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The Bubble Pops in Slow Motion - Recession Begins - John Rubino #6347 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And it's like with houses, where houses are just unaffordable
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: when you compare house prices to incomes. Same thing with cars.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you have to have an eleven hundred
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: dollars car payment in order to get yourself into one
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: of these new vehicles, most people are going to say,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: now that's what I pay on my house. I'm not
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: going to pay that much on my car. So we've
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: kind of reached the limit for that segment of the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: consumer market too. So that's another recession indicator. And yeah,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: we could go on and on about with recession indicators.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Just fill up the show with those things, because it
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: does feel like we're getting there.
• 0:33
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• 0:37
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• 1:01
  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. It's the day
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: after voting Day in November November fifth, twenty twenty five. Well,
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: John Rabino's with us and John. If there's one theme
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: what's happening now is layoffs, layoffs, layoffs, right.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Hey, carry Yeah, that's you know, that's kind of been
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: a low level thing for quite a while now. People
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: have been talking about mass layoffs and tech and things
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: like that, and now it's becoming a lot more broad
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: based though, starting with the cardboard box indicator. You know,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the guys who make cardboard boxes have a really good
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: sense of which way the economy's going, because when people
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: want a lot of boxes, that means they're selling a
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: lot of stuff, and the opposite's happening now. The demand
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: for cardboard boxes is tanking. And at the same time
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: that's happening, a lot of other big companies are announcing
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: massive layoffs. And remember we're heading into the holidays right now.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: This is Christmas time coming up when companies usually add staff,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: but they're laying off or at you know, at best
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: keeping their head count stable. But a lot of them
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: are just flat out laying off a lot of people,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: and you don't normally see that this time of year.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So the question is is the economy just rolling over,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: like are we finally going to get the recession that's
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: been overdue for a long time now, or is it
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: AI eating a lot of these jobs, So it doesn't
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: matter whether it's the Christmas shopping season or not. You know,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: people are being laid off by ais that can do
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: their job better than them, and you know, it's probably
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit of both. But we'll see in the
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: coming year which one it is. But I think the
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: recession that flows from this will happen sooner rather than later.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: You know, we won't necessarily know why the recession is happening,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: will just know that companies are laying people off, and
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot of other things going to like
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the whole debt metric thing where whatever kind of consumer
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: debt you want to look at, it's at record highs,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: and the stress metrics like defaults and ninety days late
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and things like that. But they're all going up too.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So we've got people being laid off, we've got debt
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: spiking and a lot of debt going bad at the
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: same time. So that's the portrait of an economy that's
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: rolling over into a recession. So yeah, let's see if
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: that turns out to be true. In twenty twenty six,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I think there's a decent chance that it does.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's interesting you mentioned that. So another indicator
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: generally of economic health is things like petroleum consumption, and
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: in a rising economy, gasoline prices generally are going up.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: But here we see them sinking. And I think there's
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: two reasons for this. If we buy into your recession
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: premise that it's inevitable that they haven't figured out how
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: to eliminate the business cycle yet, and this time is
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: always different, we know that. But basically, if we have
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: demand going down because of layoffs impending recession, and then
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: there are now six point two million electric vehicles on
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: the road, that's out of just under one hundred million,
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: So that's six percent less gas being consumed. And I
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: presume that they're newer cars, the electrics. Therefore, newer cars
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: are driven more generally than older cars, because in your
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: older car mix you've got like all the classics everything else. Anyway,
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: meandering here, but the point is we got a double
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: barrel recession coming. It's less petroleum consumption and less employment,
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: which is driving that price of oil going down. It's
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: at sixty dollars a barrel. Trump heralds that as a
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: great accomplished, but it could be an indicator of something
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: that he doesn't want to think about. We know.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: The other thing regarding oil and cars and things like that,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: is that the car market is starting to roll over. CarMax,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the big used car online dealer, just reported horrible numbers
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: in their stock tanked. And there are all these videos
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: online now where guys are walking around car dealerships and
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: going look to the horizon, it's Dodge pickup trucks. Nobody's
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: buying these things, you know, stuff like that. And the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: consensus among those guys who are on the ground doing
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: their own research is that the used car market is
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: kind of imploding right now, and the new car market
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: is just way overpriced. You know, cars just got extremely
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: expensive because of all the bells and whistles, like for instance,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I have a Toyota Tacoma pickup truck and the newest version,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four is they were completely redesigned and
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: they've got massive technology upgrades and everything, and they didn't
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: sell well at first at all because nobody wanted to
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: pay twenty extra thousand dollars for a pickup truck. They know,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: they knew how much a pickup truck was supposed to
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: cost and here here the tacomas are coming out twenty
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars more or more, you know, more than twenty
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: thousand in some model configurations. And it's like with houses,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: where houses are just unaffordable when you compare house prices
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: to incomes. Same thing with cars. I mean, if you
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: have to have an eleven hundred dollars car payment in
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: order to get yourself into one of these new vehicles,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: most people are going to say, now that's what I
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: pay on my house. I'm not going to pay that
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: much on my car. So we've kind of reached the
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: limit for that segment of the consumer market too. So
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: that's another recession indicator. And yeah, we could go on
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and on about with recession indicators. Just fill up the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: show with those things, because it does feel like we're
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: getting there.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it certainly does. And it's about time because the
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: purpose or recessions get rid of excessive of speculation. Right
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: in the Austrian frame, that's why we have these things
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: because rates are too low, reckless investments and what happens
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: The chickens come home to roost and then we have
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: a recession to eliminate all that excess speculation. One thing
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: I want to point out. It's not on our list,
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: but I think it's really important. Vegas is in the pits.
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: No one's gone to the place because it's gotten like
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: twenty eight dollars for a bottle of water, and they say, well,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: we're just catering to the exclusive crowd, the whales, the
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: people that could drop six figures and up on a
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: weekend and not think twice about it. I'm not buying it.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: I think it used to be a great deal. You
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: could go in a great vacation in Vegas, spend hardly anything,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: and whatever you lost at the tables, and if you
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: didn't play the tables, you came out ahead. You know,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: you could feed the whole clan, you know, a family
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: of five for like fifty bucks and leave a generous
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: tip and still have money left in your pocket. Now
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: it's one hundred dollars apiece for a low level buffe
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: and there's just no value left in that town. And
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: as a result, that town's in a recession, and Vegas
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: is always a leading indicator for recessions throughout the rest
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: of the country because gambling is purely, you know, discretionary.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: You don't have to gamble unless you're compulsive gambler, then
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: you can't stop. But that's not the visitor count. You know,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: that's ten twenty percent of the total People gambling are
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: out of control, but the rest are just there to
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: have fun. So that is a troubling statistic. And I wonder,
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: I wonder what's doing with cardboard boxes in Vegas? Does
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: that mean there's less homeless people living in them? Is
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: that what's going on?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say there would still be cardboard
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: blocks demand in Vegas because people need somewhere to sleep
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: if they get thrown out of their job as a
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: blackjack dealer or whatever. But yeah, Vegas priced itself out
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: of existence. It'll be interesting to see if it even
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: exists five years from now in its current form, because
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: that's another thing where you see a lot of videos
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: online if people walking around Vegas going look, look, there's
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: nobody on the street all the way to the horizon.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: There's not a single person here and it's Saturday.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So yeah, but that was just a stupid marketing mistake
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: on Vegas's part, because you know, some casinos can cater
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to Wales, but the whole town can't do it. So yeah,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: And you know, the thing about Vegas is that its
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: water situation is really precarious. It's on the verge of
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: running out of water because the lake that feeds it,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the level water is dropping to below the pipe. You know,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: that takes water out of Yeah, and so so that's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: that's a yeah like me. And that's a separate thing.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: You know, if water has to be has to be
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: what's that word where you you just let some people
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: have it and not other people rash anyhow, rash And
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: if water has to be rationed, Yeah, then that's that
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: means it's the farmers and versus the casinos.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well the casinos are going to win, you know that.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, I actually did a substack post on
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the whole water in the Southwest thing, and that that
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: was kind of the conclusion that the research came to
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: is that you know a lot of these places where
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the water is running out farm the desert, and you
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: know you should never be doing that in the first place,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: but now the water's running out. So the question is
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: do the cities get starved or do the farmers just
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: have to go into other kinds of farming. And the demographics.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: The political demographics make it really clear that there are
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: way more people in the cities, so they're going to
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: vote for the farmers to lose their water rights and
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: keep the water flowing for cities. And it works. The
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: math works. If you make the farmers stop farming, then
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: there's plenty of water leftover for the cities. Anyhow, this
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: is a big digression, but it's an interesting part of
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: the story.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: What you're describing is the movie Chinatown. Remember I've never
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: seen that movie. It's one of the greatest movies ever
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: made because it's all about Mulholland and basically stealing all
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: the water doing a pipeline from the farmers in the
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: north to feed growing Los Angeles. And if it hadn't
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: been done that way, Los Angeles would be a fraction
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: of itself because Los Angeles is desert. Oh my god,
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: you got to do that. You got to get on Netflix,
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: you got to watch it immediately. Plus the acting is
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: you know, it's Jack Nicholson, right, and it was his
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: breakthrough role. I think, yeah, one of them and yeah,
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: like that is an absolute must for all of you
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: out there if you haven't watched Chinatown, because it's the
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: water wars, but it's the water wars in the twenty
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: first century, and the farmers are going to lose just
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: like they lost last time, because even though they have
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: more political clout now, they don't have the clout that
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: the cities have. But you know, I guess the concept
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: of a city and why it originally came about and
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: why it exists now, I think that's something that we
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: really have to rethink. John.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, there's an awful lot about this society
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: that's been able to exist and to flourish because of
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the easy money and really easily accessible natural resources. So
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: if the water's running out and the money's running out,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: then things have to change in a big way.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: James Howard Kunstler has written a lot of books about that.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I think he has one called World Made by Hand,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: about how we're going to have to go back to
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: making our own stuff because mass production is just not
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: in suburbia, et cetera, et cetera. Those things won't survive
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the next twenty years. That's probably overstating it, but conceptually,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I think that makes a lot of sense. That just
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of things that we think of as normal
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: now are going to turn out to be based on
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: unsustainable things and they'll have to change. So, you know,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: there's a million investment theses in that process. So we
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: still make money while it's happening, you know, but for
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of people it's going to be really wrenching.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Actually it's in particular.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: I think it's actually easier to make money now using
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: AI et cetera than it's ever been before. You know,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: I really think that in many ways. But you have
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: to know how to use it, and you can't just
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: ask it dumb questions and expect smart answers.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Right well, Garry, the easiest money in AI right now
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: is shorting the whole industry. I'm talking Michael Burry's book here. Yeah,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: you know, because he's a famous guy from The Big Short,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the movie on the book. It was just announced that
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: his hedge fund is majority short. In other words, most
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: of its assets are in put options against one AI
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: related company, Palanteer. So he's he's betting basically the farm
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: on the AI bubble bursting pretty soon. So and that
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: kind of spooch. In the last couple of days since
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: that came out, the the AI stocks have been really volatile.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what that name. Maybe that is the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: end of the bubble, because it is a bubble, you know,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and the question is how much money will it take
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: flowing into that sector to keep it going from here?
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: And with all the vendor financing they're already doing and
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: stuff where one of them gives a billion dollars to
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: another one who promises to buy a billion dollars worth
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: of the first one.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Stuff. You know, that's that's.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Kind of end of cycle activity, and it's happening big
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: time in AI. So well, you know, I haven't figured
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: out how I want to short that yet, but a
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: lot of other people seem to have figured out how
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: they want to do it.
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a well need to be laughing. But we've
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: seen this movie before and the movie as never changes
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: and it always ends the same way, right always where
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: well there's a few winners and a lot of losers,
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: but you want to avoid shortening the winners. That's the
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: that's the tricky thing. Like like I shorted Tesla three
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: or four times on its I remember, and and and
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: made money in the first couple of times from the
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: fluctuations where they went up and they corrected and that
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: that was fine, But the last time around, I just
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: had to had to bail with a loss because it
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: didn't correct. Yeah, and you know, since that time, it's
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: gone way up. And I actually looked at how to
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: short Nvidia earlier in its process, and luckily you couldn't
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: use options to short it because the premiums on put
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: options on in video were just astronomical. You know, there
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: was no way to make that math work. So luckily
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: I never did short that. But you know, the NASDAC
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: right now just seems like a classic. You know, it
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: seems like a nineteen ninety nine dot com bubble kind
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: of market where the the leadership is so narrow. It
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: is what now seven companies that is they yeah, well
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: they true names for them. Yeah. Plus it's yeah, but
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: so's it's those companies supporting the entire local economy. And
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: last time that happened, and it was nineteen ninety nine
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: with the dot COM's, And this time some of those
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: companies have real sales and they're making real money, but
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: they're also doing have them do financing thing where they
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: owe each other insane amounts of money and you know, yeah,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: well it only takes one AI companies. You know, a
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: builder of ais to go bankrupt and not pay in
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: video back, and then the whole show falls apart because
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden, everybody's watching this and going, oh,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: I see what they were doing. Yeah, all right, I'm out,
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: you know, and that could happen. I've got the theme
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: what sets off the next recession depression is a huge
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: AI company. Everything's going great, the money's pouring in, but
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: then they get this huge electric bill that they can't afford.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: The four company shuts off the lights and the data
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: warehouse goes dark, and then they're out of business. And
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: that's that's off a whole chain reaction, kind of like
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: what happened in Kuwait I think in the early nineties
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: where they were all giving each other post dated checks
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: to buy stock and then somebody actually tried to cash
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: one of those checks that came do And you know,
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: I think they've been on budget plan with the utilities,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: and eventually they'll come off that budget billing, that level billing,
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: and then they'll get hit with the bill and that'll
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: be the end of the AI boom. Yeah.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a completely reasonable way for it to go.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you look at open AI for instance,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: they have obligations of hundreds of billions of dollars and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: revenue of tens of billions of dollars, not even earnings,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: just revenue. So their debt is ten times their revenue
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: and they're you know, it's not clear they're making any money.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Oh no, they're not making money. They're actually losing money.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: So you've got a lot of profiles like that in
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the AI space right now, any one of which can
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: blow up, so we'll see. On the other hand, it
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: can keep going for five more years and bankrupt all
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the shorts before it finally blows up. So don't try
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the Michael Burry strategy at home, folks. Okay, you know,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: just because he did it doesn't mean he has lots
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of other money he can survive that. But yeah, a
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: little bit of shorting, nibbling at some put options on
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: these things, not a bad idea at all.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, don't go selling the miners short though, your silver
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: and your gold miners. This little correction, algorithmically induced correction,
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: it's not real. You just see premiums go up. You know,
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: silver was at fifty four now it's at forty eight,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: close to forty eight. They knocked it down forty seven
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: looks like the floor now for silver.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: John Well, with precious metals, like with any bull market,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: you need to watch the underlying circumstances that made it
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: a bull market in the first place. And in precious
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: metals case, it's government's borrowing way too much money, interest
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: costs on that debt going parabolic, and things like that,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: you know, and as long as that's still happening, which
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: it is still happening, nobody has any way out of
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the debt bubble that's going on right now. Then gold
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and silver, which are the kinds of money that you
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: move into when people are moving out of the currencies
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: that are being inflated away, they will go up, or
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: at least they'll be solid and stable, and then the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: mining stocks will do well too. So gold and silver,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: physical really high quality mining stocks, and the physical ETFs
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: are all still great investments, even if they squiggle in
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the short run. You know, even if they have a
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: little more of a corruption correction. The few occurrencies are
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: still dying. And you know, a way to look at
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: a potential high in the gold market is that if
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the dollar goes to zero, gold when priced in dollars,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: goes to infinity.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: So you're up saying yeah, yeah.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: There's your upside. You know that infinity in the currency
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: that you're using to make that measurement.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: So ride it for a while.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: You know, this is this is going to be an
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: epic bull market going forward, even starting from today's prices.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: I've been buying up and then we're gonna have to
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: cut it short. But I've been buying up forty percent
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: silver Kennedy half dollars. I was doing it three four
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: months ago. I was buying them at ten percent below
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: melt value. Now there's no discount to melt on eBay.
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: You're paying at melt or over and that's considered the
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: junkiest of the junk silver, and yet it is now
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: not so much junk. So that's something you've got to
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: be aware of. A government shutdown, we could talk about
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: that for a while. Have you been affected by the
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: government shutdown yet, John.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: No, I have not, you know, but it's it's it's
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: gone on longer than any previous shutdown has gone on.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: So I assume those guys are feeling a lot of
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: pressure from, you know, the people who don't get their
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: food stamps anymore. And I guess the military is still
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: being paid. You can never not pay the military. That's
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: that's how revolutions happen when you try to stiff the soldiers, so.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: They're getting guarded, you know.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: So I'm not even sure who's not getting paid, probably
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: like the park rangers and such. Who you can't. You
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: can't stiff air traffic control doing that. Oh Jesus, Okay,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Well it's good. I haven't had to fly anywhere yet,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: so I'm still alive, which means I haven't been affected
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: by that part of the shutdown anyhow that I think
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: they'll settle pretty soon. Your brump has some people around
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: him who would just love to let this thing go
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: on forever because it's their excuse for just firing everybody.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: And you know he's hearing that at meetings and stuff
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: like that. I don't think he will consider that to
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: be the highest probability bet, so they'll probably settle. And
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: actually the Democrats are the ones who are keeping the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Clean Continuing Resolution from being passed because they see this
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: as an advantage that they can blame the guy in
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: charge for the trouble that flows from that kind of
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: an event. And you know they might be right. Trump's
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: positive polling is going down, you know, his favorability ratings
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: and everything.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: So we'll see. But I think the pressure builds and
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: they settle this pretty soon. Yeah. I tend to agree
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: with you. And if they got to reduce a filibuster
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: to fifty five votes, they'll do it because this can't
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: go on any longer. And it's just people are getting
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: upset food stamps. I mean, this is always our nightmare, John,
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: when you went to the supermarket, plugged in the EBT
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: cord and nothing happened, and we're almost there. Well, it's
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: going to be interesting to see. Make sure you go
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: over to on substack. It's Rabino dot substack dot com.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: Ours work strictly substack. Now dump the website. It's khl
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: FSN dot substack dot com. John. We'll see you in
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks. Be well, Thanks, Garrey, see you soon.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: ever