Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Market Correction Ahead of China Talks: Corn & Soybeans Breakdown | Grain Market Talk May 8th, 2026

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Market Correction Ahead of China Talks: Corn & Soybeans Breakdown | Grain Market Talk May 8th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about the grain markets.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for uh joining us here today.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: Let's start off with a little bit of our recent activity here.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: I've got you with me here today.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: Let's start off with what kind of moved the market so far this week.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I think uh a good place to start here is just gonna be the crude oil market.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: When I look at uh what crude did here this week, really sold off through most of the week, pulled back towards the bottom end of this trading range I've got up on the chart right now.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be uh pulling back towards a 50-day moving average on crude oil here, and then it's kind of found a little bit of an uptrend, still holding it, anyways.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: We haven't broke through it, but we did find some weakness this week, didn't we?
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: And that seemed to still control most of the pace, I would say.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike, uh you hit it on the ball there.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it seems like the grains maybe, you know, you know, wasn't as correlated with the crude oil as a as we thought, but I I guess this week kind of changed our minds.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, Wednesday we had a$16 trading range in crude oil, and crude definitely drove all commodities this week from from what we could tell.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: How about some of the other commodities we work with?
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, corn, for example.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: Let's take a peek at the corn market here.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: As I viewed a little bit of our retracement back towards the 61% retracement, kind of hit right along that 20-day moving average.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, still holding a nice uptrend, kind of holding that, but I think we just had a nice retracement for the move, anyways.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: Then we closed the week on a pretty strong note, didn't we?
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_02: So actually, I mean, we we just took off a few cents this week, but overall on the week we had a 22 cent trading range, and this is the time of the year for you know grain to be, you know, a little more volatile compared to normal.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_02: This is the year where we're starting to trade weather, and we and we definitely did that this week, and and the crude oil market helped that as well.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, going into the end of uh the day here on Friday, pretty much green all the way across the screen for most of the egg space, kind of medium, uh mid-trade today.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, rebound in in the energy prices, along with some spec buying, I thought, ahead of next week's WASDA production data, Trump's busy visit to Beijing late in the week.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think that really sets the tone uh for the egg markets here on Friday going into uh this next week.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I feel like we traded that here.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: In addition, we had a jobs report come out today that calmed some of the fears that higher energy prices may lead uh the global economy into a recession.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: And uh yeah, I think that's helped a little bit here as well.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: So um, you know, we'll get into some of these other talking points anyways, but I think that's kind of where we're sitting for the time being.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans, if we looked at that one here, Jaden, uh holding right along that 50-day moving average, I think is a good uptrend line.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we haven't touched that in a while, but it hasn't really stressed it.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh it bounced really nicely off yesterday's low into today's session and rebounded through most of the day up 15 or so.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, a very nice, very nice chart there as well.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: Any comments on soybeans week over week?
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I'd say week over week, we did finally break, briefly break that$12 level and watch that level going forward, but it seems like any pullback we kind of get in this market, we get new buyers all the time.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: And what were a few things you thought that really moved things?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: I know we talked about the fact that the crude oil market had really set the tone for the rest of the commodities.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: What were some headlines or things you thought that really set the stage?
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: The one that I can think of obviously was the truth post on Wednesday, wasn't it?
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I would say for sure that was the big mover this week.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_02: Saying um Trump was saying that he did send a new um um agreement that that he hopes Iran will agree to here.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um a new proposal there.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_02: And from what we hear now, as of Friday at 2 30 p.m., anything could change within minutes, but Iran has not agreed to anything.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_02: So um the trade saw that as maybe, well, they sent him a new proposal.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_02: Hopefully we'll get something done, and the market took it as that um earlier in the week, Tuesday, Wednesday, and we had that sharp sell-off in the crude oil.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was interesting.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's being reported that the Iran foreign ministry is still weighing a response to the latest U.S.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: peace proposal.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: President Trump said that the U.S.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: and Iran ceasefire is still intact despite some of the exchanges of gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yesterday.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: Trump posted there's no damage done to the three destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers, while uh describing the exchanges as just a love tap in a very Trump manner, I thought, which was interesting, Jaden.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_02: And it's it's real interesting on the timing of all this with a meeting next week between Trump and G.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, as as China gets you know some of their oil through that strait.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um, Trump does hold you know some leverage over G there heading into the next week's big meeting.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: Definitely.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's set the stage for weather.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: It was a huge week for uh progress here in the United States for corn planting.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty much anywhere in the I States, uh, pretty much anywhere around this local area has been fantastic for planning progress.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'd argue this week.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of folks I talked to were rather done now on corn and soybeans rather than still going.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: So um it seemed like a lot of folks either were getting done this week or this weekend, they were going to be done planting corn and soybeans.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, maybe a day or two left on spraying, rolling, picking rocks, whatever.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: But it it for the most part, here a lot of progress got done on corn and soybeans.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: You go north further, uh, North Dakota, up by Fargo, a few folks I talked to there.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, when I was speaking with them this week, it seemed like they're wrapping up corn, kind of working on soybeans soon.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it's getting very nice progress, I think, across the United States.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: Corn belt.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: And uh here on the screen, Jaden, any comments on uh on planning progress or the weather we got ahead of us in the seven-day?
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the thing that kind of stood out to me on Monday in our progress report there was maybe Wisconsin and Michigan, those are the two states lagging behind in North Dakota, like you briefly mentioned.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: But looking over the last week, kind of the precip we have gotten, we haven't really got much throughout most of the corn belt.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_02: So I expect a real big progress jumping in the next week's report.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: When you start to look at the U.S.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: drought monitor, I think it's very interesting how I pulled up the chart you sent me here, which is fascinating.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: So tell me a little bit about this chart and what some of your takeaways are on it.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, my takeaways are like, you know, that dark growing region is where most of the corn production is held.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_02: And as you see, you know, the areas that are in a drought are would you would you say Nebraska, Eastern South Dakota?
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: Where are most of the pivots actually in those areas?
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: So it's interesting.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: The big majority, you know, corn producing states that are in a drought are ones with pivots.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_02: We'll we'll see how that impacts the corn production going forward.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's phenomenal how the drought area wraps right around this corn production map.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's incredible, actually.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: So it no major droughts in the I states at this point.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: Locally, here we're pretty dry, so we could use rain, but uh perfect time of the year to really have a drought, to say the least.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: When I look at some of the upcoming items, this next week's gonna be very, very important for the U.S.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: uh uh grain markets and oil seeds here.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: A few things I wanted to start with.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: Monday, obviously, the planning progress report is gonna be huge, uh, but huge progress.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think there's much to question out of it.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: There shouldn't be a lot of uncertainty regarding planning pace, anything like that.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Should be massive progress.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing really for a story.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think it really kicks off next week.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Preparation into Tuesday's WASD report.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: And a few of the things I view to see here is I pulled up your estimates that you grabbed this morning from some of the comments.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um, what do you expect going into this WASDAY?
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: And what have we seen historically uh out of these reports?
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, historically, Mike, we tend to see from their February outlook the yield they dropped there.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_02: So this year was a 53 on beans and 183 on corn for this next marketing year.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_02: Usually they're the they they keep the same number.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_02: Don't really expect anything different this year as planning pace is you know above average, actually.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_02: But the thing that I'm gonna be watching is some of the South America estimates.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: So some of the things I've been reading is that some of the South America reporting agencies, where it's the Rosario Exchange and such, the USDA's estimate is way below theirs.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_02: So it'll be interesting to see if the USDA comes off their number, as Argentina and Brazil are really big role players in world production.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: Very interesting.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: I uh looking forward to this first row crop balance sheet for the new crop for sure out of the U.S.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: and then South American numbers as well.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh gonna be a big day on Tuesday when it comes to that WAST airport.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: But the more important thing I think going into next week will be that meeting on Thursday, Friday between Trump and G.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: I've just got some of the headlines posted on the board here uh for what we expect, anyways.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: And in this meeting between Trump and G, I view that everything he's been doing with Iran and Venezuela, these are all trading cards and and uh leverage he can pull into this Chinese trade negotiations here at the end of next week.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I uh I think from our point of view, it would appear that Trump has pretty good leverage over China going into this meeting.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh he's gonna see how much he can get out of them, and I think that China's gonna want a deal done.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: The question is, are they going to be interested in buying U.S.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: corn or ethanol?
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: I know they'd love beef, but we probably won't give them beef no matter what.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they don't need the pork necessarily either.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh when it when it comes down to me, I I think energy is huge for them, and I think corn and soybeans is what Trump will try to feed them, along with this greater idea that uh we're doing a lot of things with AI, and I think that's gonna be something Trump really pushes into them here.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: But what do you expect out of the meeting Thursday, Friday, and how some of these markets could react?
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I would expect some sort of egg deal to be done because I mean G knows that that's you know, Trump's fan or support base is a lot of egg guys.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: So um I think he knows that's gonna trip his triggering with the leverage that Trump holds over him right now.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's gonna be some sort of egg deal done, even if it doesn't make sense for China financially.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, who knows?
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, they can buy those$2 over Brazil beans and just dump them in the ocean, for all I know.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: You're not wrong.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking forward to that meeting.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be a big one next week.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: One of the really big stages for the grain market here going forward, I think, between that and some of what we've seen out of Iran.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: It won't be surprising if we do see somewhat of a deal uh soon from uh the US and Iran.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: So a few things to really watch for.
• 11:23
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• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: And uh please go to our website at professional marketing.com.