Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 351 - 9/11/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 351 - 9/11/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 351 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Thirsty Thursday, the long wait.
0:38
I call it a long wait. It's only been a few days, but
0:40
thank God we got some football back in our lives.
0:43
Isn't it funny? You go through the entire
0:44
offseason missing football and then you know, it's like 6
0:47
months and then once football starts, it's like man, 2 days.
0:50
I'm itching and scratching for another game.
0:51
So luckily we do have a nice match up here tonight in the NFL
0:55
to kick off Week 2. Washington Commanders Green Bay
0:58
Packers. I'm glad we hit on this game
1:00
yesterday because just as I suspected, the line is moving in
1:03
the direction I thought it would.
1:05
So we'll have a full official best bet pick for you guys for
1:08
tonight, Commanders and Green Bay Packers.
1:11
And then also we're going to kind of unveil the entire card
1:13
for this weekend. So I do have 4 college football
1:16
games lined up for the next few days and one of them is a play
1:19
for tomorrow, which is a game that kind of caught my eye and
1:22
it looks really fishy in a good way.
1:24
And then we're all going to also going to finalize the three
1:27
final NFL best bet picks for Sunday.
1:29
So Thursday Night Football tonight and then 7 plays over
1:32
the next few days in college football in the pros.
1:35
And the reason why I'm giving you my final card here today is
1:38
because we will not have, unfortunately, we will will not
1:41
have a podcast tomorrow. So no pod tomorrow.
1:45
I am actually travelling back to my hometown, Western Mass, the
1:49
Berkshires, because my good buddy Lars, one of my best
1:53
friends, grew up with, we played baseball together.
1:55
Obviously we've stayed in touch and been great friends.
1:58
He made an epic speech at my wedding a couple years ago.
2:01
But my buddy Lars is getting married this weekend and I am
2:04
one of the groomsmen. I have a speech that I'm be
2:06
giving tomorrow night. Tomorrow night is the rehearsal
2:08
dinner. We check into this awesome hotel
2:11
that overlooks the the Appalachian Mountains, which are
2:16
kind of run through New England. They start, you actually do the
2:18
Appalachian Trail. You can start in North Carolina,
2:21
I believe, and it goes all the way up through I think like
2:23
Canada or Maine. But anyway, all the friends are
2:26
coming back together. Friday we're going to check into
2:29
the hotel. We're going to have a rehearsal
2:31
dinner and have a great time. Then the wedding is on Saturday
2:34
and then I'm leaving to come back, hopefully Sunday morning,
2:37
hopefully in time for the Patriots game because I'm a
2:40
Patriots fan and getting a little nervous about my over 7
2:43
1/2 win total. But anyway, no pod tomorrow,
2:46
which is why we're going to just have the official best bets all
2:49
unveiled for you ready to go on today's podcast.
2:53
Now, I do want to mention it is September 11th, guys.
2:55
So obviously it's a somber time anniversary of the worst terror
3:00
attack obviously in our lifetimes, maybe in history of
3:03
America other than Pearl Harbor, I can't think of one that's
3:06
worse. But just want to give a shout
3:08
out Day of remembrance. The one thing I do every
3:11
September 11th, you'll see it probably on Twitter, but there
3:14
is a great YouTube video on ESPN called the man in the red
3:18
bandana. If you've been sweating games
3:20
with me for years. I started in the industry in
3:22
2011, but I always retweet this mention.
3:24
I always watch it. It is a great video about Wells
3:27
Crowther. He was a Boston College lacrosse
3:30
player and on September 11th he led, he saved like, I don't
3:34
know, 1020 people's lives by running into the World Trade
3:37
Center as it's on fire saving people and he lost his life.
3:41
But just the ultimate hero. And it always to me is something
3:45
out of that. I watch every September 11th.
3:46
So obviously it is a terrible milestone in our country's
3:50
history. It's 24 years ago, guys.
3:53
I always you know, you talk to your parents or grandparents,
3:56
you know, where were you when JFK was, was shot or the moon
4:00
landing? Well, for for us, I'm
4:02
millennial. I'm 38 years old now.
4:04
I remember distinctly 24 years ago, I was what, 14 years old?
4:10
I was in middle school and I distinctly remember my buddy TJ,
4:13
my best friend, he passed away a couple years ago.
4:16
And my other friend, R Pete, we were in the science class.
4:19
In the science class, the goal was to kind of learn about
4:23
architecture and you had to build bridges out of toothpicks
4:27
and glue and you had to think about designs and what would
4:30
hold up. And then at the end, when you're
4:32
finished with your, your toothpick bridge, we would test
4:35
it. So everyone would bring their,
4:36
their bridge and you'd have a team, You'd bring it to the
4:39
front of the class and you'd start with like, you know, a
4:41
gram and then like, you know, half a pound, a pound and see
4:45
whose bridge would hold up the longest before snapping.
4:48
And as we're getting ready to, it was our turn at the plate.
4:51
Myself, RP and TJ, it was our turn to get tested and we're
4:57
like, man, we're going to win this thing.
4:58
We thought we had a pretty good one.
5:00
As soon as that happened, you hear on the loudspeaker.
5:03
I don't, I don't really remember what they said, but something
5:05
happened. We're canceling the rest of the
5:07
day. And this is how, you know,
5:09
you're kind of getting old. I remember they wheeled in.
5:12
Remember if you were a student like me, a millennial, they
5:15
would wheel in the TV on the big, kind of the big, you know,
5:18
I forgot what it was called, like almost like a table, but it
5:21
was on wheels. It was pretty tall.
5:22
The big fat TV was on the top and they put on the news.
5:25
And I just remember, you know, hearing something about we're
5:28
under attack. And I remember there in my
5:32
middle school, there were in the hallways, there were windows on
5:36
the ceiling. So they're like, you know,
5:38
windows that you could see up to the sky.
5:40
I just remember, like, looking up and thinking, like, you know,
5:43
is there going to be a warplane? And are they bombing us?
5:46
Like, what's going on? I mean, again, I was 14 years
5:48
old, but I'll never forget that day.
5:50
And obviously, you know, sincerest condolences to those
5:54
who who passed away, just a terrible tragedy.
5:56
But September 11th, I'll I'll always remember those two
5:59
things. I always watch the Wells Crowder
6:01
video, the man in the red bandana and always think
6:04
back-to-back in middle school, the day it happened and just not
6:07
knowing what was going on. It was such an awful, terrible
6:10
day. But that was my September 11th,
6:12
what I remember from it back to sports betting guys.
6:16
I just want to address that real quick.
6:17
But I did go one and O last night, plus 0.63 units.
6:21
The Phillies came through with an 11 to three win, which was
6:23
nice to see. And you know what?
6:25
I think that's what I'm doing. Baseball. 1 baseball game a day
6:28
if there, if there's nothing else to bet but baseball, let's
6:30
just pick one of them because it's hard out there dodging
6:32
landmines and MLB. I did want to mention also the
6:36
Rhythm Rundown, the show that I'm now hosting every Thursday
6:40
night at 6:00 PM with my buddy Kate Harper.
6:43
If you'd like to download the Rhythm app, Rhythm does a great
6:45
job of powering this podcast. If you want to take advantage of
6:48
25% off, you can use the promo code start 25.
6:52
We'll be breaking down and talking about all of our best
6:55
bets and how to use Rhythm to your advantage on Twitter
6:58
tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time. I hope to see you guys there.
7:01
So with that being said, let's get right back to doing what we
7:04
love to do betting data-driven place and the great, great,
7:08
difficult, challenging world of sports betting.
7:10
So without further ado, guys, let's talk about the game here
7:13
for tonight. So we'll have one official best
7:15
bet for tonight and we'll get to all of our plays upcoming this
7:18
weekend. So set the stage here. 8:15 PM
7:21
Eastern Time. Make sure that your prime
7:22
account ready to go and fumbling through your, you know, adapters
7:26
and paying for your subscription and logging in.
7:28
That's always fun. But anyway, 8:15 tonight,
7:31
Commanders at Packers commanders come in one and O they took down
7:35
the Giants 21 to 6 in Week 1 covered as a 6 1/2 point home
7:39
favorite. Meanwhile, the Pack one and O
7:41
just dismissed the Lions 27 to 13 easily covered as a 1 1/2
7:45
point home favorite. So what have you seen across the
7:48
market here? Well, this game opened Packers
7:50
as low as a 2 1/2 point home favorite and the public is
7:54
saying, give me the pack all day.
7:55
They trade for Michael Parsons. They rolled in their opener
7:58
against the Lions. Public is all over Green Bay.
8:01
Now. I must admit, early sharps kind
8:03
of agreed because we saw Green Bay -2 1/2 get up to -3 and then
8:07
we saw Green Bay get up to -3 1/2.
8:10
Now you're getting around 2/3 of spread bets going with the
8:12
Packers so early smart money targeted Green Bay.
8:15
It looks like it -2 1/2 or maybe you could argue -3 but now that
8:19
it's gotten up to 3 1/2, what do we talk about on the pod
8:21
yesterday? I'm kind of proud of the fact
8:23
that we highlighted this game yesterday because just as I
8:26
suspected, when we looked at this line, it wasn't creeping up
8:30
-3 1/2 Green Bay up to -4 no, based on the juice yesterday, it
8:35
was all plus 3 1/2 - 115 -, 120 toward Washington.
8:40
So that kind of told me that we weren't getting up to four.
8:43
And this line is kind of falling back toward the Commanders,
8:45
especially last 24 or 48 hours game day movement back toward
8:49
Washington. So that told me that wise guys
8:52
are grabbing the Commanders plus 3 1/2 now.
8:54
I bet Commanders plus 3 1/2 -, 112, excuse me, yesterday.
8:59
And I'm glad I did because a lot of books are now Commanders plus
9:02
3 1/2 -, 115 -, 120 - 125. And as I was kind of thinking
9:08
about, a lot of books are getting down to three now.
9:11
That's a great sign. But the key here, guys, is he
9:13
got to get the hook. You got to get the 3 1/2.
9:16
This reminds me a little bit about the game in Brazil between
9:19
the Chiefs and the Chargers. If you remember, it was the same
9:22
sort of thing. I know it was a neutral site
9:24
game, but that public play toward Chiefs pushed the line
9:27
toward the Chiefs. But those three and half started
9:29
getting back down to three. So kind of the Chargers game
9:32
were took the Chargers and the points kind of the same spot
9:35
here with Washington. So the commanders are a sharp
9:38
buyback play. Again, you got to get the 3 1/2.
9:41
I think +3 and half -115 at Fanatics is your best number
9:44
right now. But again, some shops are as
9:46
high as -120 -, 125. But the commanders have sharp
9:49
buyback. Commanders are a bet against the
9:52
public play because they're only getting 38% of spread bets or
9:57
sorry, 39% of spread bets at DraftKings.
10:00
But then if we look at Circa really good split here in favor
10:03
of Washington at Circa out in Vegas, which you got to make a
10:06
point at one point in your life to get out there because it's
10:08
the gamblers paradise sweat a game at stadium swim.
10:12
But Washington 38% of spread bets contrarian, but 80% of
10:17
spread dollars going on commanders.
10:19
So a low bets, higher dollar split on Washington Commanders
10:23
do match a couple systems for me.
10:24
Short Rd. dogs +6 or less. They're 312 and 260 ATS, 55
10:30
percent, 5% ROI since 2019. Primetime dogs, they're four and
10:35
O perfect. Four and O, let's make it 5 and
10:37
O ATS this season. They are 145 and 126 ATS, 54
10:42
percent, 3% ROI since 2020. Jayden Daniels.
10:46
Obviously if you're betting Washington, it's mostly betting
10:49
because you like Jayden Daniels or the matchup, obviously.
10:52
But Jayden Daniels is 13 and seven against the spread in his
10:55
career. That's a 65% cover rate, 23% ROI
11:00
as a dog. Jayden Daniels is five and three
11:03
ATS 63 percent, 17% ROI. So the line is coming back
11:08
toward Washington. The three and halfs are juiced
11:10
up. Getting back down to three tells
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me buy back on the Commanders. You could also argue Washington
11:15
is an inflated dog. They open 2 1/2.
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Now you're getting 3 1/2. You want to get that hook and
11:20
see it close at 3:00, get some closing line value.
11:23
But then also you have a lot of system matches, low bets, higher
11:26
dollars bet split. So we're pretty much lining up
11:29
here to continue to play the Commanders.
11:32
I liked him yesterday, I like him even more today.
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A couple little X factors here. I popped open the Rhythm app and
11:38
noticed that I have two models on Washington.
11:41
One is Washington plus 2.41 is Washington +2.
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So the fact that Rhythm is saying this should be about a
11:48
two 2 1/2 point game, we can still get a 3 1/2.
11:51
That's a full point. Point and a half of actionable
11:54
value or an edge and advantage over the books based on these
11:57
Rhythm AI models doesn't hurt as well.
12:00
Pop open the Juice Reel app. Notice a 5% sharp mush edge on
12:04
the Commanders. Nothing huge, but the sharper
12:06
winning players at Juice Reel are also going Commanders.
12:10
So again, usually Jay and Daniels is getting 70% of bets
12:13
-7 no, he's a dog. That's contrarian with sharp
12:16
buyback tonight with a good rhythm edge.
12:18
So I am playing the Commanders plus 3 1/2.
12:22
Again, you got to get the hook. Try to find the lowest juice
12:25
price. I got Commanders plus 3 1/2 at
12:27
-112 Now that's the only play for tonight.
12:32
But because I have no POD for tomorrow, I'll be traveling and
12:36
going to my buddy's wedding. I did want to just give you the
12:39
official best bets for this weekend.
12:41
So there is a game in college that I added today and it is a
12:45
game that takes place tomorrow. It is Kansas State, Arizona,
12:49
late night sweat will be taking over one of the local bars and
12:53
in Western Mass in the Berkshires for this one.
12:54
So I'll have the whole crew rooting for this play for me and
12:58
my buddy Richie, who's a big better.
12:59
I know my buddy Fed, they'll be sweating this one with me.
13:02
But Kansas State, Arizona, this one is really interesting.
13:06
This is a match up here in the Big 12 and Kansas State comes in
13:11
one and two and they just lost to Army 24 to 21 last week.
13:17
Arizona's two and O undefeated. They crushed Hawaii and then
13:20
they beat Weber State. So what have we seen across the
13:23
board for this one? Hey, take Arizona, right?
13:26
They're at home. They're two and O they're facing
13:28
A1 and 2K state team that just lost.
13:30
However, the betting market says no, no, no, no K state this game
13:35
open Arizona a very short 1 1/2 or one point favorite at home
13:40
and again, you typically got to give two points as high as three
13:42
points home field in the in college.
13:45
And I felt a little bit shorter maybe.
13:47
But that tells me if Arizona's opening basically minus one 1
13:51
1/2 at home neutral site K states the better team.
13:54
Now what I really like is that the public is all over Arizona
13:58
right now. Arizona is getting nearly 70% of
14:03
spread bets. So public is saying, man, this
14:05
line is way too short. You know, Arizona should be -3
14:08
-6 I don't know. They're saying Arizona should be
14:10
favored by more. However, even though nearly 2/3
14:14
or 2/3 or more of tickets are backing Arizona, Arizona's on up
14:18
to -2 - 3 - 4. This line is flipped dog to fave
14:23
in favor of K State. K State only getting a third of
14:26
bets, but they've gone from a short dog to now a -, 1 -, 1 1/2
14:31
point Rd. favorite. So woo woo dog to fave line
14:35
move. K State open at it as a dog flip
14:37
to a favorite. I like it even better that K
14:39
State is not popular, they're unpopular and the lines still
14:42
moved in their favor. So that's a reverse line move
14:44
dog to fave play. You look at just the fishiness
14:48
of it all. Like why is A1 and two team who
14:51
just lost favored on the road against A2 and O team?
14:54
So I want to buy low in that fishy spot.
14:57
You also look at a money line place.
14:59
So I'm not laying the one 1 1/2. You might have heard me say this
15:02
before in college football, college basketball, but always
15:04
money line short favorites. Again, basically the odds makers
15:07
are saying this should be a tight game.
15:09
Maybe K state wins by 1. You lay a 1 1/2 and you lose.
15:12
You lay A1 and you push. So I money lined K state.
15:15
I got them at -115 at Bet MGM. Shop around some books as high
15:19
as like -120 but also a juice reel edge.
15:23
I noticed pop open juice reel 8% sharp mush edge in favor of of K
15:30
State. Also the DraftKings money line
15:32
splits look pretty good on K State. 44% bets 59% of dollars.
15:37
So on Friday night again, Arizona's at home.
15:40
They're two and O. Why are they now a dog at home
15:44
when everyone's playing them? Yet the line flip toward K
15:46
State. So this looks like a fishy,
15:48
fishy K State Wildcats play for me.
15:50
I money lined K State. I got them at -115 win the damn
15:55
game. Now just to rehash some plays
15:58
for coming up here on on Saturday.
16:01
First one on the board for me, Clemson, Georgia Tech now going
16:05
in this one, Clemson is a they're 12th.
16:09
They're ranked 12th overall. They're one and one on the year.
16:11
Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech 2 and O.
16:14
But what's really the most important thing to me is the
16:16
fact that this line continues to move toward Georgia Tech.
16:20
So Clemson is getting 67% of spread bets.
16:24
But Clemson owned opened as high as -6 this line is down to 3 1/2
16:28
even 3. You got to get the hook.
16:31
You can still get plus 3 1/2 - 120 at FanDuel.
16:34
But I love that the public is on Clemson, but the signs falling
16:37
toward jaw Tech only 33% of spread bets, but 40 was it 49%
16:43
of spread dollars. And if you look right now at
16:46
circa 56% of spread bets, 86% of spread dollars.
16:51
There's also a buy low unranked versus ranked system match, and
16:54
if you look at our friends at Juice Reel, there's a 17% sharp
16:58
mush edge on Jot Tech. And at Rhythm get a load of
17:01
this. I have two Rhythm models that
17:03
actually say Georgia Tech should be favored -0.6 -, 0.5.
17:08
So basically, again, we're getting 3 1/2.
17:10
You got to get the hook, but Rhythm says you should actually
17:13
be about 1/2 point favorite here.
17:15
So I did play Jot Tech plus 3 1/2.
17:18
Again, you got to get the hook there, but it should still be
17:21
available at FanDuel. I'm on Georgia Tech plus 3 1/2.
17:24
Next one for you, Georgia, Tennessee.
17:26
This one should be a lot of fun. My buddy's wedding, I believe
17:30
it's at 4:00 on Saturday, so I don't know if I'll be able to
17:33
sweat this whole thing. I guess priorities.
17:36
But man, this is going to be a very fun one to watch because
17:40
the public is all over Georgia. Georgia is getting upwards of
17:45
70% of tickets, but Georgia open as high as -8 this line is now
17:49
down to 3 1/2. So why is the line falling
17:52
toward Tennessee if everyone's playing Georgia tells me you
17:56
have a epic, epic reverse line move contrarian play in favor of
18:00
Tennessee. And what I also liked about this
18:02
one, if you look at circa, only 37% of tickets, 79% of the money
18:09
is on Tennessee. And this is the most heavily
18:10
back game of the day where Publix Georgia lines going to
18:13
Tennessee. I popped open juice rail 5%
18:17
chart mush edge on Tennessee and rhythm has Tennessee plus 2.1
18:22
and plus 1.4. So again, I jumped on the 3 1/2.
18:27
I'm sweating Tennessee here and I'm looking forward to this one
18:30
because I there's, I've seen a bunch of people on on Twitter,
18:33
the same people, I'm not going to name names, but they never
18:36
understand line moves and then they fall into the trap every
18:38
time. Like this line's falling way too
18:40
low. Play Georgia.
18:42
And like, hopefully tennis, Georgia could win, they could
18:44
cover, but Tennessee comes through and covers and then they
18:47
make the same mistake every week.
18:48
I like to like grab them by the collar and shake them and say,
18:52
hey, if the public's all over Georgia and lines going to
18:55
Tennessee, it's pretty clear that Tennessee is a sharp play
18:58
and they always get hung up on. Well, what's the edge here?
19:01
Why? You know why the sharps like
19:02
Tennessee? Who cares why they like them?
19:05
They do like them. Like you don't need to.
19:06
Oh, because the the wide receivers are going up against
19:09
bad defensive backs or bad old line.
19:11
Like they need a reason. I'm like, don't get hung up on
19:14
the reason why just, you know, follow the sharp move.
19:16
Anyway. It just frustrates me.
19:18
But I am on on Tennessee here plus 3 1/2.
19:22
You can still get a -, 110 last college bet Vandy, South
19:27
Carolina. This one's interesting too
19:29
because this has been a very consistent sharp line move
19:32
toward Vanderbilt. You open this one to South
19:35
Carolina listed as high as a six point favorite.
19:38
And what I like about this one is South Carolina is a ranked
19:42
team. They're at home.
19:43
It's a prime time game, and South Carolina is getting 70% of
19:47
tickets. Yet South Carolina open -6 then
19:50
up to -7 they're all the way down here to 4 1/2.
19:53
Some shops even down to 3 1/2. Now, we nailed this one earlier
19:58
in the week. I mentioned this to you guys, I
20:00
believe either Monday or Tuesday, Vandy plus 5 1/2.
20:03
So I'm holding Vandy plus 5 1/2 right now.
20:06
Your best number is 4 1/2, but still some books are down to 3
20:09
1/2. So pretty clear here.
20:11
Public all over South Carolina, ranked yet unranked.
20:14
Vandy is getting this really sharp reverse line move in a
20:16
primetime game. 19% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice
20:21
Rail. So again, I hope you listen to
20:23
the pod. Another shameless plug to sign
20:25
up and get those all systems go official.
20:27
Best bet picks from Juice Rail because as soon as I make a bet
20:30
it goes right to Juice Rail. You would have seen that plus 5
20:33
1/2 earlier this week. Hopefully it won't matter.
20:36
Wouldn't it be nice if Vandy won the game or lost by three?
20:39
But I'm on Vandy plus 5 1/2. And again, if you're playing it
20:42
now, your best number I believe is 4 1/2.
20:45
So K State money line, Georgia Tech plus 3 1/2, Tennessee plus
20:49
3 1/2, Vandy plus 5 1/2. That's what I'm sweating this
20:53
weekend, starting tomorrow, actually.
20:55
Now let's talk NFL because I'm sweating the Commanders tonight.
20:59
I got a few more plays for you. And we have talked about these
21:02
games a little bit, but the first one for me coming up on
21:05
Sunday, The Jets, Jets lost but came through for US.
21:08
Plus three-week one against the Steelers.
21:11
And kind of a similar situation here with a sharp.
21:15
This is actually a true sharp reverse line move instead of a
21:18
kind of a sharp line freeze or some RLM there three to down to
21:21
2 1/2 against the Steelers. But if you look at this match
21:24
up, Buffalo Bills public is not afraid of this big number.
21:27
Buffalo Bills open -8 they're getting 67% of tickets, but the
21:31
line is down to 6 1/2, even 6 now.
21:34
I highlighted Jets +7 earlier in the week, so I'm holding Jets
21:37
+7. If you can't get A7 right now,
21:39
I'd wait see if you can hold out and get a 7.
21:42
Excuse me because it's very important.
21:44
Key #7 Jets lose by 7:00. You want to push instead of lose
21:47
that bet, But Publix over Bills, Jets only 33% of tickets, but
21:52
74% of dollars at DraftKings. At circa 56% of tickets, 97% of
21:59
dollars at DraftKings. Our friends at Rhythm, I have
22:03
two models, Jets plus 4.9 and +5.
22:06
So again, even if you get a 6 1/2, it's still a good edge.
22:10
We have system matches here. Divisional dogs week, two dogs
22:13
off a loss dog 6 1/2 or more. These are all between, let's
22:17
see, 5957 and 61% ATS. So I do have The Jets plus 7.
22:25
Also added the Jags, Jaguars plus 3 1/2.
22:29
This is kind of similar to the Commanders because a lot of
22:31
these three and halfs are getting down to three, but you
22:33
still can get a 3 1/2 with the Jags.
22:36
Public is all over Cincinnati in this one.
22:38
The Jags in this spot are only getting 34% of tickets but half
22:43
the money. So 2/3 of bets are on the
22:45
Bengals. Bengals open as high as -6
22:48
they're down to 3 1/2 and they're juiced not toward the
22:51
Bengals buyback, but toward the Jags.
22:53
Like it's going to fall the three.
22:54
So make sure you get the hook on that one.
22:56
Now, rhythm isn't really with us here.
22:58
Rhythm has Bengals -4.4 so I don't love that, but I'm going
23:03
to kind of stick to my market based approach and take this
23:06
unpopular dog. Low bets, higher dollars with
23:08
this line move. If you look at circa 64%
23:11
tickets, 96% money on the Jags and there is a 7% sharp mush
23:17
edge on the Jags at Juice Rail. So I am on the Jags plus 3 1/2
23:22
and again make it down to three. So make sure you get the hook.
23:25
Last bet of the week, Philly Kansas City.
23:29
Now this one might be a little I don't know it might cause a
23:32
little stir because hey Kansas City off a loss at home.
23:37
They're getting a point. Mahomes is a dog.
23:39
I get all that, but I'm going Philly in this one.
23:42
What I like about Philly is this dog to fave line move.
23:45
You open Kansas City around -1 1/2 at home.
23:48
You have now flipped to Philly -1 -, 1 1/2 some games are at a
23:52
pick so maybe there is some buy back there in Kansas City.
23:55
But what I like about this angle, not just dog to fave in
23:59
favor of Philly, but if you look at circa 78% tickets, 94%
24:04
dollars on Philly. That's the spread money line,
24:07
86% bets, 94% dollars. So I like the split.
24:12
I like the line move. But here's what I really like
24:16
about Philly. Rhythm is bullish on Philly.
24:19
Rhythm has Philly -3.3 and -3.1, so the line's moving toward
24:26
Philly. We do have low bets, higher
24:27
dollars, and Rhythm is predicting a three-point win and
24:30
we can money line Philly just to win the damn game.
24:33
So I got Philly -110 on the money line again.
24:36
I like the move. You had me at dog to fave.
24:39
But you know, if Rhythm had this at a pick em game, maybe I'm not
24:41
as excited. My Rhythm is pretty bullish -3.3
24:44
- 3.1. And we do have a 26%.
24:48
That's a big one. Sharp mush edge in favor of
24:50
Philly at Juice Rail. I got Philly -110 looks like
24:53
your best price is -115 right now.
24:56
Again, money line short favorites, some looks as high as
24:59
-120 and also Xavier worthy. I think he did practice, but I
25:03
don't know if he's going to play.
25:04
And I would expect Jalen Carter to play well again.
25:07
You spit on Dak Prescott, you get thrown out of the game.
25:10
You have to pay a $57,000 fine. He's rested, should be ready to
25:14
go. Philly does have a one day rest
25:15
advantage. Remember they played Thursday.
25:17
Kansas City played Friday in Brazil and then had to travel
25:21
and again dominated in the Super Bowl.
25:23
So hopefully some of that continues here this weekend.
25:26
So I did money line Philly -110 dog to fave and again, Rhythms
25:30
got about a three-point game. So Jets +7 Jags plus 3 1/2
25:34
Philly money line. That's what I'm rocking this
25:37
Sunday. So that about does it for
25:40
episode 351 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
25:44
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
25:46
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
25:50
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
25:52
bit, out of your busy lives. I know you got a lot going on,
25:54
but you guys, TuneIn, you listen, you sweat the games with
25:56
me. It really means a lot.
25:58
So with that being said, would you please help me grow this
26:02
pod, Make me hopefully help it grow by doing a very simple,
26:06
easy thing. It'll take you 2 seconds, maybe
26:08
even take you one second. Just give it a five star review
26:11
on the App Store or sorry, on the Spotify or iTunes.
26:14
Help us grow, get more five star reviews.
26:18
If you want to leave a nice comment, click the follow button
26:20
recommend the pod to a friend. I would very much appreciate
26:23
that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
26:26
betting data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, focusing on
26:29
what the market is telling us, what the line moves are telling
26:32
us the splits the system matches, not what our heart
26:35
tells us is going to happen, because usually our bias, our
26:37
heart, it's usually wrong. But if this style of betting has
26:41
opened a door for you, you've make make started to make
26:44
sharper plays, you're beating closing lines.
26:46
You're winning. Obviously that's the ultimate
26:48
goal. But if you'd like to let me know
26:50
you appreciate the insights and also learn more about sports
26:53
betting. Or maybe you have a friend or
26:55
colleague or buddy or Co worker or family member who maybe wants
26:58
to get into betting, doesn't know a money line from a spread,
27:01
has no idea about line movement. Or maybe someone who bets a lot
27:05
and doesn't really win too much because they're just parlaying
27:07
everything bitten with their heart.
27:09
We know you should do. You should go to Amazon.com,
27:12
type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
27:15
That's my new baby, my new book. Please continue to tweet me
27:18
photos of the sharp sharp betting playbook.
27:20
I love retweeting them. If you wouldn't mind giving it a
27:23
five star review and and Amazon with a nice comment, I would
27:27
very much appreciate that. I also wrote another book called
27:30
the the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
27:32
So if you want to grab that one as well and bring one or both of
27:35
the books to the sports book, I'll sign them for you.
27:37
Buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll, we'll sweat the
27:40
commanders plus 3 1/2 tonight. My buddy Willie Anderson, he's a
27:43
big Packers guy. He's going to the game tonight.
27:45
I said Willie, hey, Packers are going to win by three.
27:48
We're going to win by the hook with Washington.
27:50
So hopefully everyone's happy. Next.
27:52
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
27:53
My two favorite sports betting apps because they're
27:56
data-driven. Got to download Rhythm, use
27:58
promo code start 25 for 25% off. Remember, we got our 6:00 PM
28:03
show tonight live on Twitter. Rhythm great for their AI backed
28:06
models and predictions for game bets and player props and juice
28:09
rail. Juice rail has so many great
28:11
features. But you know what I like about
28:12
juice rail? You can support the pod.
28:14
The pod's free. It cost you nothing to listen
28:16
tip your podcast host by signing up to get the official all
28:20
systems go best bet picks. They're only posted on juice
28:23
rail. So you download juice rail, you
28:25
pay $4.99 a week. You get every ASG pod as soon as
28:29
I make it and hopefully you get a good good number like Vandy
28:32
plus 5 1/2, but also you're at the robo Jackson best bet picks
28:36
the sharp mush indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
28:39
the best line features all available with juice rail.
28:42
So download rhythm, download juice rail.
28:44
Give me a five star review in the App Store.
28:47
Next you have a live odds page. You need one if you want to be a
28:51
data-driven better. You need access to good data,
28:54
accurate, reliable, up to date up to the second, getting the
28:57
most sports books to track, following the market line
29:00
movement, identifying steam, comparing the opening column to
29:03
the current, shopping for the best price, live scoring, live
29:06
in game wagering odds. You can get it all with odds
29:09
logic. So make sure you go to
29:11
oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll get you a 7 day free
29:16
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
29:20
Next, you know you probably bet through DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet
29:24
MGM, Caesars, ESPN, Bet Fanatics, Rivers.
29:29
You use all those apps, right? Nothing wrong with that.
29:31
I use them. But you know what you should do?
29:32
You should. Instead of betting against the
29:35
house and when you lose, the house makes money, bet against
29:37
your fellow betters, give a shot to a betting exchange called
29:41
Novig. It operates, it's legal.
29:43
It operates just as the same as a sports book.
29:46
You deposit money, you fund your account, you place a bet, you
29:49
get better odds. If you win, you don't get
29:50
limited. I'd love for you guys to give
29:52
Novig a shot. You can just click the link in
29:55
the bio description of this pod on Spotify or iTunes or go to my
29:59
Twitter account at Josh under score Insights.
30:01
There's a link to sign up. Use promo code Josh 123.
30:04
It'll be 100% match up to 25 bucks.
30:07
So you deposit 25 bucks to Novig, you'll get another 25 and
30:11
you can get better odds and compete against fellow betters
30:14
instead of the house. So that about does it for
30:18
episode 351 of the ASG pod. It kind of feels like a Friday,
30:21
even though it's Thursday. Remember, no pod tomorrow, but
30:23
you can read my sharp reports for visen.com over the next few
30:27
days and you can also get the best bet picks on Juice rail ASG
30:32
under score podcast. But as always, guys, two final
30:35
thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
30:36
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
30:39
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
30:42
Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park, Casino,
30:46
MGM Springfield, the Nash. Where I'm at in New England or
30:49
out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
30:50
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
30:53
use possible is found at the South Point.
30:55
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
30:58
swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circa, wherever it
31:01
may be. You're gonna walk up to me.
31:02
You're gonna show me a beautiful Phillies ticket from last night.
31:06
First ones on me, next ones on you.
31:08
We're gonna post about the book. So a sharp contrarian plays all
31:11
night long. So wish you the best of luck,
31:13
everybody. As always, remember 1 and OO and
31:16
one off a winning night, losing night, great night, terrible
31:18
night grinding. You just got to stick to the
31:21
model, stick to the blueprint. Never get too high, never get
31:24
too low. When things are going well,
31:26
we're not going to double down, triple down and start to go nuts
31:29
when things are going poorly. You just got to got to ride the
31:32
wave. You just got to stay positive,
31:34
stay even keeled. If we can do that.
31:36
The key guys, you don't have to bet every game.
31:38
Just find the games that fit our model against the public with
31:41
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
31:45
CLV. If we can do that, and I'm
31:47
confident that we can and guess what, we're going to be
31:49
successful sports bettors. So have a great Thursday night
31:52
everybody, have an even better Friday and a great weekend.
31:55
Again, no POD tomorrow, but my buddy Lars is getting married.
31:59
It's actually his second marriage.
32:00
He married his high school sweetheart when we were 23 years
32:03
old. Didn't work out, found a much
32:05
better girl. So hopefully it turns out better
32:08
this time for my buddy Lars. But good luck everybody.
32:11
Remember 6:00 PM tonight, we'll do the live stream and who knows
32:15
I might add another player to so follow on on Juice Real.
32:19
But good luck everyone. I will see you back on Monday.
32:22
That'll be episode 352 of the All systems Go sports betting
32:26
podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody, and go
32:30
Jaden Daniels and the Commanders.