Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Eurasia Advisors' Conn on Investing in Russia, Ukraine (Audio)

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Eurasia Advisors' Conn on Investing in Russia, Ukraine (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: all right, thank you very much, Bill Maloney. Into hear
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  Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash you're listening to Taking stock
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  Speaker 1: with Kathleen Hay and Pim Box on Bloomberg Radio. Flaver
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  Speaker 1: Putin congratulated Theresa May today with her appointment as you
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  Speaker 1: K Prime Minister, hoping for some constructive dialogue with the UK,
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  Speaker 1: and of course his relationship with leaders around the world,
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  Speaker 1: particular the United States, is a very important topic for investors.
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  Speaker 1: Russia has had its own share of challenges with the
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  Speaker 1: big run up and oil prices than the big drop,
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  Speaker 1: and so many more issues involvement in Syria. Where does
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  Speaker 1: Russia stand now? Where is the country heading? What should
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  Speaker 1: the investors be watching. We're very happy to have Richard
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  Speaker 1: con joining us now. He's managing partner at Eurasia Advisors.
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  Speaker 1: It's a problem solving and deal making firm that focuses
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  Speaker 1: on Russia and the c I S, the Commonwealth of
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  Speaker 1: Independent States. Richard, welcome to taking Stock. Thank you. So,
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  Speaker 1: first of all, you have to tell us about you.
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  Speaker 1: You speak Russian, you studied there, You worked for Yeltsin's
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  Speaker 1: team when you started around them and round the Moscow
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  Speaker 1: office of the international law firm Latham and Walking. You
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  Speaker 1: did so much. Tell us about what took you to
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  Speaker 1: Russia and what you did have done there. In a nutshell,
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  Speaker 1: when I went to college, I had already learned a
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  Speaker 1: few of the Romance languages, and I wanted one really
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  Speaker 1: difficult language. I chose Russian the because at the time
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  Speaker 1: I was very interested in chess, and also I enjoyed
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  Speaker 1: Russian literature, so it seemed to make some sense to me.
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  Speaker 1: But little did I suspect that it would lead to
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  Speaker 1: a lifetime of involvement with Russia. And you mentioned the
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  Speaker 1: word chess, and let's just be clear here, you ran
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  Speaker 1: for the Deputy Presidency of the World Chess Federation so
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  Speaker 1: you're not just somebody coming new to the game, and
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  Speaker 1: you're not coming new to Russia. No, but I wish
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  Speaker 1: the loftiness of the position I sought in some way.
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  Speaker 1: We're related to my abilities in the game. I play seriously,
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  Speaker 1: but there are a lot of people who play better well.
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  Speaker 1: So lucky thing it is, though, for those find people
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  Speaker 1: in your raised advisors that you didn't become the grand
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  Speaker 1: champion or chess master right of the world, and you're
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  Speaker 1: you're working with them. So I'm gonna hear a little
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  Speaker 1: bit more though. So here's the guy who studies Roman
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  Speaker 1: Romance languages, and I can speak Russia in Russian and Russia, right,
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  Speaker 1: you know, I can see the places of Russian literature.
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  Speaker 1: But then how do you take a step into law
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  Speaker 1: and business and what has your focus been there? Well,
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  Speaker 1: I made the decision years ago to go into law,
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  Speaker 1: and uh, this is back during the Soviet time period,
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  Speaker 1: so there really wasn't much going on in US Russian
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  Speaker 1: business at that time, and I focused on law and
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  Speaker 1: the law firm Lathan Watkins became an equity partner there, uh,
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  Speaker 1: practicing in areas such as litigation, insolvency. Wrote a book
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  Speaker 1: for lawyers on insolvency restructuring and ended up really I
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  Speaker 1: guess you would say, almost out of the blue, when
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  Speaker 1: Yelton came to power, approaching the head of our law firm,
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  Speaker 1: gentleman who had turned out had studied some Russian about
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  Speaker 1: the idea of going over to be part of the transition,
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  Speaker 1: both for purposes of business development of course for a
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  Speaker 1: law firm Lathan being one of the largest law firms
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  Speaker 1: in the world, but also UH to be of assistance
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  Speaker 1: during that time period of Russia, and the firm was
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  Speaker 1: extremely supportive as far as Brexit and THEIRS role in
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  Speaker 1: the European Union Visa v. Russia. I mean, you've got
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  Speaker 1: these two geographical extremes, and if you could talk a
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  Speaker 1: little bit about what the vote means for internal European
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  Speaker 1: relations and Russia as it kind of tries to find
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  Speaker 1: its role in Europe, well, I would start by saying that, certainly, UH,
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  Speaker 1: the the classic view right now is that Russia is
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  Speaker 1: doing all that it can to assist in the dismemberment
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  Speaker 1: of the EU. And because they certainly, from one perspective view,
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  Speaker 1: the UH sanctions that are currently in place as in
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  Speaker 1: parts sustainable because of the cohesion of the EU in
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  Speaker 1: supporting that effort, and so from that perspective, Brexit could
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  Speaker 1: be viewed as welcome news uh to Putin and those
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  Speaker 1: who take that view. I would add though, that China
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  Speaker 1: takes a very diff from view of it. They take
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  Speaker 1: the perspective that the EU is an excellent counterweight to
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  Speaker 1: the US, and they feel that it's helpful to have
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  Speaker 1: that in existence and that worthy EU to break apart
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  Speaker 1: or to at least slowly disintegrate that. Ultimately that would
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  Speaker 1: um frankly make it more amenable for the US to
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  Speaker 1: have its views in the world. So um so, you
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  Speaker 1: can take take different slices of it. But in the
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  Speaker 1: short term, Russia certainly is focused on getting sanctions out
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  Speaker 1: of the way and wants to peel off, you know,
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  Speaker 1: from a short term strategic perspective, as many countries as
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  Speaker 1: possible to to weaken sanctions and view that as leverage
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  Speaker 1: as part of the resolution of the Ukrainian situation. Getting
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  Speaker 1: breaking news now from the UK then appointment everyone has
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  Speaker 1: been waiting for. David Davis appointed Chief Minister for Brexit
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  Speaker 1: by Theresa May, the new Prime Minister, and of course
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  Speaker 1: everyone was said that the most Horton position that she
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  Speaker 1: would be announcing is that of bregsit Czar. So we're
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  Speaker 1: watching that very closely as Teresa May takes over as
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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of the UK today. Richard Kahan is our guest.
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  Speaker 1: He's managing partner at Eurasia Advisors, talking to us about
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  Speaker 1: Russia froster relationships with the US and interesting that China.
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  Speaker 1: When China looks at Bregsit they see a possibility for
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  Speaker 1: the EU to offset the influence of the United States
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: in the world. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with pim Fox.
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  Speaker 1: Secretary of State John Kerry. He will be meeting Russia's
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  Speaker 1: a couple of key appointments today from the UK's Prime Minister,
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  Speaker 1: Theresa May Boris Johnson, the former London mayor, has been
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  Speaker 1: named Foreign Minister and now they have a Brexit zar.
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  Speaker 1: Minutes ago we learned that David Davis, who advocated British
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: withdrawal from the European Union will be given the official
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: title of Secretary of State for exiting the European Union.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve and its Page Book reports said the U
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: s economy expanded at a modest pace since mid May,
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  Speaker 1: a mid quote slight price pressures and some softening in
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  Speaker 1: consumer spending. Oil tubled after a government report showed US
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  Speaker 1: fuel inventories unexpectedly grew, adding to concerns about oversupply. Todd
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  Speaker 1: Colvin is senior vice president at Ambrasino Brothers got the
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  Speaker 1: free Brexit look at oil, and then you've got the
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  Speaker 1: post Brexit look at oil. And I use that as
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: a line in the sand because all the markets have
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  Speaker 1: really changed and corrected since then. Oil has been no
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: different except for oil is such a two headed beast
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  Speaker 1: that it trades supply and demand, It trades on geopolitical risks,
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  Speaker 1: and it trades on disruptions production. You name it. Crude
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  Speaker 1: oil West Texas Intermedia down four percent forty four ninety
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  Speaker 1: four barrel right now, Gold up eighty three, a gain
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  Speaker 1: of six tenths of one percent the ten year of
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  Speaker 1: ten thirty seconds. Zeal there one point four seven percent,
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  Speaker 1: SMP five hundred index Flat Dow up eighteen, a gain
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  Speaker 1: of point one percent. NAS backed down three tenths of
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  Speaker 1: one percent three thirty two on Wall Street. Now, let's
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  Speaker 1: take a look at other news from around the world.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you, Charlie from the Bloomberg news room. I'm Jill Schneider.
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  Speaker 1: jeep dealer today. British Prime Minister Theresa May has started
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  Speaker 1: assembling her new government, appointing Philip Hammond as Treasury Chief.
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  Speaker 1: Hammond is the former Foreign Secretary. He replaces George Osborne,
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  Speaker 1: who had held the job for six years. Osborne had
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  Speaker 1: resigned from the government. She also appointed Amber Rudd as
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  Speaker 1: Home Secretary. Funerals are being held today for three of
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  Speaker 1: the five Dallas police officers killed last week. Pastor Rick
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  Speaker 1: Thompson at the Potter's House Church in Dallas. Today is
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  Speaker 1: about Brent, and today is about trying to bring some
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  Speaker 1: closure and trying to help this family. Thompson's wife, Emily,
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  Speaker 1: also a Dallas police officer, spoke at the service, saying
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  Speaker 1: she will put on her uniform and return to policing
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  Speaker 1: the streets. A federal appeals court has denied Tom Brady's
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• 11:52
  Speaker 1: A three judge panel said in April that NFL Commissioner
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  Speaker 1: Star Quarterback War Games for his role in a scheme
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  Speaker 1: to doctor the football's used in a playoff game. Some
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  Speaker 1: subway riders need to exercise patients as they wait for
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  Speaker 1: their trains. Today, the m t A is reporting extensive
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  Speaker 1: delays on the one, two, three, four, or five and
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  Speaker 1: six lines. City officials say have power outage at a
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  Speaker 1: rail control center is to blame. No word on when
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  Speaker 1: service will be restored. Global News twenty four hours a day,
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  Speaker 1: powered by more than journalists and analysts in more than
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  Speaker 1: one twenty countries. I'm Jill Schneider. This is Bloomberg, Charlie,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: and we thank you and again recapping stocks advancing now
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: with the SMP five dred Index upp A point little
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: change three. That's a gain of less than point one percent.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Palatin. That's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hay and Pim Fox on
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Russia. Russia's stock market is actually up nearly
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  Speaker 1: ten so far this year. This comes despite economics sayings
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  Speaker 1: because of Russia's role in ongoing tension in Ukraine. Here
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  Speaker 1: to tell us more about Russia its relationship with Europe
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  Speaker 1: and the United States is Richard Kahn. He is managing
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  Speaker 1: partner for Eurasia Advisers. He joins us here in the studio, Richard,
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  Speaker 1: in your work in Russia, I wonder if you could
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  Speaker 1: tell us their perception of the United States and Americans. Well,
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  Speaker 1: like I first break it apart, because obviously there's no
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  Speaker 1: one view. As you might imagine, Russia has its equivalent
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  Speaker 1: of red and Blue States, as you know, far greater
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  Speaker 1: levels of education in the cities and their business communities.
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  Speaker 1: And then you have the ruling elite in the country.
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  Speaker 1: I would say, generally, and this is held all the
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  Speaker 1: way through from the period when I was over there,
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  Speaker 1: back in the Soviet days. Um, there is a tremendous
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  Speaker 1: level of respect and admiration for the United States. UH.
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  Speaker 1: That really has not changed in my view, notwithstanding the
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  Speaker 1: UH current or I said the last two years sort
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: of of a nationalistic type of push within within Russia,
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  Speaker 1: you know, at the leadership level. I think there's likewise
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  Speaker 1: begrudging admiration and respect, but similarly a a sense that
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  Speaker 1: that is not reciprocated, that they're treated discourteous, lee and disrespected.
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  Speaker 1: So there is a certain level of animosity h bruzd
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  Speaker 1: gooes that plays a significant role, actually, I think in
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  Speaker 1: the relationship, even in the way things played out in
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine years ago. Well, that's what you make me think of,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: because that's there's such a different view. If you the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: US UH crimea annexing crimea wrong. You can't do that.
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  Speaker 1: You just grab something putin Russia saying hey, wait a minute,
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  Speaker 1: that's really ours. We're just taking it back, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's Uh. How do you understand it? As someone who
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: lives in both worlds and understands both so well, well,
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  Speaker 1: I think not with ending all my time there, I
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: will never understand Russia the way Russians do. But I
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: do feel that the Russian perspective is not particularly well
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  Speaker 1: understood in the West, and again it's I'm not justifying it,
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  Speaker 1: but I can certainly say their view is close to
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  Speaker 1: what you said, that there is a history of both
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  Speaker 1: of the relationship with Ukraine and with Crimea that even
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  Speaker 1: predated the Soviet period UM, and that of course they've
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: had for a long time, and you know, a large
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: naval installation on Crimea. Their perspective is we have some
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: whatever seven hundred military bases in the world. They've got
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: two with Syria and UH and Crimea, and they were
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: certainly loath to see that UM be part of a
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Western leaning Ukraine UM. And I think from their perspective, UH,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: you know, they felt, and there's no question that this
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: is their view, because they've expressed it many times, that
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  Speaker 1: they were essentially double crossed by the West in connection
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: with how Ukraine was handled, that a deal had been
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: reached with the West regarding the treatment of Yanukovich and
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the process that would be followed. And they blame us
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  Speaker 1: essentially for UH the uprising that took place. They do
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  Speaker 1: not for a moment believe that this was a spontaneous
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: act by the citizens of Ukraine. Now our perspective is
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: quite different than that. But the Russians certainly feel that
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  Speaker 1: uh that Ukraine never Yukine, never really in their mind
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  Speaker 1: uh has been outside of Russia. Uh. They had viewed
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  Speaker 1: until recently it is being necessarily part of their sphere
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of influence, and they've been very uncomfortable and have signaled
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: that to have the buffer zone, they're taken away from
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: them and visa vi cremea. You know, they point to
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the history of Kristcheff essentially symbolically giving it to Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: at a point when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and so from their perspective that really was a non event.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: And again you tie that together with the military aspects,
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  Speaker 1: and what they view is is our getting into their
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: neighborhood that they were quite uncomfortable about it. Now you
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: add all that together, there might be a solution. But
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: for the fact that the Ukrainians, certainly in the west
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: and maybe now five percent of the country themselves, want
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: to be facing westward. They they they've made that quite clear,
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  Speaker 1: and so once you consider the perspectives of the individuals
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: living in the country, that dramatically complicates any sort of
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: if you will, a superpower type of solution. UM, And
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: there in lies part of the dilemma. And not not
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: that we should focus exclusively on problems, but because I
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: think there's a lot of common issues we can focus on.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: But but that one certainly is going to remain a
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: problem for some time into the next administration. UM Secretary
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: of State John Kerry, he will be meeting in Moscow
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: later this week, perhaps with the President of bottom Reproof,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: but certainly with the Foreign minister talking about Syria. Is
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: there any way, based on your understanding of the situation,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: that there can be some kind of coordinated effort on
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the part of the Russians and Americans on Syria. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: I think both countries have done a good job in
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: trying to focus on the positive elements of cooperation in Syria.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: And obviously this has been far from perfect. There's um
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: as you've no doubt have noted a deep level of
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: distrust between the US and Russia right now that's spilled
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: over or even into the diplomatic realm. But I do
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: think that that they can make headway with Syria. It
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: can be an example of an area of cooperation. Uh.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: But I don't think we need to limit areas of
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: cooperation to the problem points. All right, Richard con thank
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: you so very much for joining his managing partner at
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Eurasia Advisors. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with pim Fox. This
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: is taking Stock, and this is Bloomberg. Coming up on
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