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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just told Big Clients ‘RUSH TO BUY…’ + Stock Market News 13 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: We got inflation data just in and of course, we're all wondering how high can we go?
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: What should we be buying here?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what Goldman Sachs just said the lovely investment bankers with a warm, fuzzy heart.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs just said, the lovely investment bankers with a warm, fuzzy heart.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you and make you into the most well best informed investor out there.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: That's always my intention.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: So, first of all, the Russian inflation rate today is I'm kidding US inflation came in exactly as expected.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Basically, core inflation 0.3 as expected.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Inflation rate 0.2% month to month as expected.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: So headline inflation is now back down to 2.6%, which we can kind of live with.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Right 2% is where the Fed wants it.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So this is good.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: This is very good.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: In fact, it's kind of irrelevant, but still good.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So the market rally should continue.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: This is the pre-market here, which looks a lot greener than it did half an hour ago.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: We're seeing tech basically flat Tesla jumping 2.8%, go Tesla.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Call options.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Finance is doing very nicely, energy stocks are doing quite well, commercial stuff as well sort of you know, paypal and so on.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: It's doing quite nicely here.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: So it looks like a good morning, doesn't?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: It Looks like a very good morning.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Now, this is what Goldman Sachs wrote this morning when I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: And that is exactly how you play a market rally you partake, you participate, you profit and you make lots of money.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: And then you will set your stop losses to make sure when it does eventually come down which it eventually will and then it'll continue to rally further up you don't lose your shirt.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how to spot those very, very breakouts and learn Wall Street's rules for spotting the breakouts and we've got some really wonderful breakouts going on at the moment then, well, I recorded a free masterclass for you.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: You can watch it for free.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: It's about half an hour long.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Felixrentzorg slash get free and you will literally learn the rules for how to pick those winners before they become real winners.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So there is more good news Uncertainty is sort of gone.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So what we've had on small cap earnings calls for the last couple of months massive amounts of there is election uncertainty.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: We don't know what's going to happen.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Therefore, we're going to be cautious, and the market hates caution.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Election uncertainty we don't know what's going to happen.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Therefore, we're going to be cautious, and the market hates caution and uncertainty.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: We now know who's going to be in the White House.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: You see, doge has been released.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Vivek and Elon are running the cost slashing thing.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into that in a moment.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So the uncertainty is gone, which is one reason the market's on fire.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Why do I say almost?
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Because we have yet to see whether Washington plays ball right.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Do the congressmen and senators suddenly fall in line with all this stuff?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: You know, term limits for congressmen and slashing all that lovely money that they've been funneling back to their hometowns and that sort of thing, and that'll be interesting.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So the Speaker of the House election is coming up.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That'll be an interesting test to see whether the Donald wins or whether there will be a fight from the entrenched political elite and the market won't like the fight.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I can tell you that much.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: This was Vivek posting this time last year.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: He said on day one I would instantly fire 50% of federal bureaucrats.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: How If your social security number ends in an odd number, you're fired.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Number, you're fired, which is kind of crazy.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So very interesting to see what happens there on 1st of January, right.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that 23 and a half million government employees are going to be happy?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Well, it depends.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Really it depends how big the payoff is to bugger off and not show up for work ever again.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I can't imagine that running most of these government jobs is particularly satisfying.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: They're probably there for the job security and the money.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Given that the job security is gone, they might just take some money and go quietly.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, staggering level of growth in terms of hiring here, and a lot of this hiring, of course, is just to make the jobs market look good and get re-elected right, which is why, generally, governments get bigger and bigger and bigger.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely one thing to watch out for.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It's an unprecedented attempt to cut down a bureaucracy.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: We've never really seen that.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Now the first question is then, of course, felix, you promised us to tell us what to buy, or what shall we buy.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Well, the chat seems to have frozen.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Is the chat frozen for you too?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: For me, the chat's frozen.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: It's kind of weird.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Got 800 people live, 130 likes 700 people on the fence.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: It's a tough crowd.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: It's like how Kamala feels.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So the improvement in the market, like the fundamental improvement in earnings per share, earnings per share which is ultimately what matters in the long run.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Well, basically, if you look at the S&P, there haven't really been any.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We're not predicting any improvements in earnings per share.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: For the magnificent S&P 7 up here, we are expecting 17%, and for the S&P the rest of it, we're expecting minus 3%.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So where should you be invested?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Would you rather be invested up here, where growth is happening, or would you rather be invested down there where no growth is happening?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: That is a question.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Seriously, the chat seems to have committed suicide.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Let's see what's going on.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, it's back, it's back.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Aa says thank you, this is so useful.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is useful, but I'm glad you find it useful.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Hit that like for a German friend, says David Duff.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: It is hard pressing the like button for a German.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So what else should we be buying?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Well, I still think small caps have a very nice life ahead of them.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I still think we're a little early on that.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I think we're still also a bit early on biotech, but that's another one.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: But let me show you IWM and why we're still a little early on that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, so here is IWM.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, trade vision triggered a buy signal here on September 16, which was a reasonable one, at sort of $217.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And you know, we've certainly moved up since.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: But have we really really broken out of the trend?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Well, we're basically at November 21 highs, right, and that's at the moment where we're sort of littered out.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: We're also being resisted.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Is that a word?
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: There is resistance, sort of like an uprising.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like what the Germans faced when they invaded France.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: That's a bad joke, isn't it?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So La Résistance is at $240, which was very effective, one must say, and thankfully so and we're trading slightly below it.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So you kind of got to break through the $240.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Now, what the heck happens at $240, you wonder what is this resistance?
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: It is not a bunch of French people, no, it is not.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: It could be, of course, but it probably isn't.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: The resistance is the following what happens is there are market makers, and these are folks who are on the other side of our trades.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: They're institutional traders and they hedge their positions.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: What happens when you go over 240?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: They sell stock and therefore they depress the stock price.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It's kind of as simple as that.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: So you've got to kind of break the stronghold of these buggers to actually meaningfully go up.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So buy signal.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Last one yep, certainly here on that beautiful breakout, and that was a nice one.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: We're enjoying IWM, but I think there is a lot more gas in that particular tank.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Now, what about a beast like Tesla?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: What do you make of a chart that looks like that?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Well, we've had a bunch of breakouts that were worth buying.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: This was the one around 200, where I set up my most recent Tesla trade and then we sort of zigzagged a little bit.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: There is a more recent one here at 23rd of October.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: That was also a nice breakout.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And if you want to know how to spot those and learn the actual rules, you know what to do.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: You go to felixfrenzorg, get free and you actually watch the masterclass and you actually learn the rules and you'll actually be better as an investor, if we're ever after.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: And then we've had this beautiful gap up here that the, the, the trump gap up and we've been going up and up and up and up.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a pullback.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That's normal.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: We don't really care about pullbacks that are sort of smaller than, say, 6% or something like that.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: They're just kind of irrelevant.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We're still going up very, very strongly this morning.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Thankfully, we're trading up at 337, ever so slightly below the resistance line, which is where the bastards, the market makers, are selling Tesla stock.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So, again, you need to take them out and you need to watch this line move up at least to 350, or maybe even to 400, right, this is important.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: How do you get your paws on that line?
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: You go to Trade Vision, you sign up, you enjoy it for a week.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: If you like it, you stick around, if you don't, you cancel it.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: It's as simple as that.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So, check that out.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I disappear on this screen, don't I?
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Just an empty circle, that's all that's left.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I'm such a bunch of French people, right, I'm glad I make some of you chuckle, johnny, you will love that.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I'm offending people.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Um, yes, especially the french.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: They don't mind.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: We don't get many french people on this channel here.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: So it's, it's, it's an easy.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: It's an easy one to pick on.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Plus, I spent too much time in the uk, which just generally loathes the french, uh, which is sort of where I picked it up.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Really, the germans don't mind the french.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: The english really like, really don't like the french very much.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: The saying is France is a beautiful country if it wasn't for the French.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Okay, now we've taken it too far, haven't we?
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I actually have a place in France, so I spent some time there.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It is a lovely place, there are some lovely people there, and so just everything in a bit of bitter humor must be allowed.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Palantir, why is it trading up again?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: That's a gap up here, potentially this morning.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: We should watch out for that in the next 18 minutes.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: What happened?
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Have you heard of a thing called Rio and his best friend, tinto, wants a football player, wants a bottle of red wine?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: They're, of course, one of the largest miners in the world.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: They've extended another five years their Palantir contract and they're basically saying we can't live without you.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And this is what I've been saying for a long time, that I think Palantir commercial contracts are for life, for the lifetime of the company, because they can't replace it, they can't do it.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So they're literally running the train system of their biggest minds on it, like 87 trains or something.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Each have 240 parts Crazy, and everything else and sensors and systems and safety and efficiency and everything else.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So they can't cancel, right?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So they keep extending and they keep paying more and more and more, which is brilliant.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: So Palantir jumping up here again what stopped?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: What you said for, palantir now says Jim.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: That's a very good question, my friend.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I think there are two schools of thought.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: One is the lazy approach, which is 6% below the market or some random number.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not a big fan of that.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I'm more of a fan of drawing trend lines.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: The most recent trend would be no, not from there.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: You need to connect at least three points to get a trend.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Struggling with that slightly here, but let's assume that that is.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: It's not actually three points, but it's sort of close and then you could set it where the trend line sits, which will be a little tighter.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So that would be at sort of 60-ish dollars.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Now, you always want to be below the round numbers.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Don't ever set a stop at 60 because you're going to hit 60.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: You're going to hit 59.85 too, probably, and then you're going to bounce back up.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: So set it at 59.73 or something, and that way you're not going to get knocked out for these small little bumps.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Now, what I would also take into account there, jim, is stocks that are very volatile, so stocks that go from $40 to $60, they will also zag, they zig, they also zag, right.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So you might want to allow for a little bit more room there.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So I would have a healthy distance, because I think it's going to come down, it's going to bounce up, so I wouldn't be too tight there.