Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets for NFL Week 3

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Best Bets for NFL Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:12
Speaker 1: I am Schad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: The Action Network is the company that provides you with
0:20
Speaker 1: all the betting information, research data picks that you need.
0:26
Speaker 1: Get it all in our free award winning app downloaded
0:31
Speaker 1: the Action Network App. I am joined by my bff,
0:37
Speaker 1: my companion, Mika Padre, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, my brother.
0:44
Speaker 1: What's going on, Chad, buddy? It was. It was a
0:47
Speaker 1: great scene yesterday. It was one of those uh rare
0:50
Speaker 1: occasions we had to hang out for an entire debt.
0:53
Speaker 1: We had a full day together yesterday. Uh the entire
0:56
Speaker 1: Action Network crew, or a lot of the Action Network crew,
0:59
Speaker 1: Me You, Brett McMurphy, Capital, j A k A Sources,
1:05
Speaker 1: Dan Revel, Raheem Palmer, Amanda Rose, our video team. It
1:09
Speaker 1: was fantastic. We were in a studio in Brooklyn, New York.
1:15
Speaker 1: We were very cool, We were very hipster. It was
1:17
Speaker 1: a street that was just warehouses, combination of studios, auto
1:25
Speaker 1: body shops, metalworks shops, um like hipster bars, hipster bars,
1:31
Speaker 1: everything graffitied and we're walking around like we belong. We
1:36
Speaker 1: were doing a full day of video stuff that we
1:39
Speaker 1: need to populate our YouTube page, action network on YouTube,
1:42
Speaker 1: stuff that we need to support, sponsor videos, all this
1:46
Speaker 1: great stuff. We had a great conversation about what a
1:48
Speaker 1: sports betting Hall of Fame would look like. Um, really fun,
1:52
Speaker 1: really great day. It was great to see you. You
1:53
Speaker 1: look fantastic. I mean I definitely anytime I left the
1:57
Speaker 1: walk around, I definitely got a lot of side eyes
1:58
Speaker 1: because I looked like I was going to church and
2:00
Speaker 1: people on that street were just like, what's the deal
2:02
Speaker 1: with this guy? Um? My favorite part chat was how
2:05
Speaker 1: comfortable you are in front of cameras. I mean, you
2:07
Speaker 1: couldn't have been any happier to take photos do videos.
2:11
Speaker 1: I mean you were in your element me, I was
2:14
Speaker 1: joking the camera guy. That's my first photos probably like
2:16
Speaker 1: since high school and twenty years ago for prom. I
2:19
Speaker 1: haven't had photos like that and that long. And it
2:22
Speaker 1: was just very uncomfortable for me. But it was fun
2:24
Speaker 1: definitely being up there. But it's definitely like a normal guy.
2:27
Speaker 1: I hate looking at myself, so it was pretty uncomfortable
2:29
Speaker 1: with the whole take twenty photos or take a hundred
2:32
Speaker 1: photos and then do videos. It was it was different,
2:34
Speaker 1: Uh that it was. It was. It was a really
2:36
Speaker 1: fun day as usual. Uh. You were astute in pointing
2:40
Speaker 1: out all the things I don't want people to notice
2:42
Speaker 1: about me. Huge show today, we gotta go over a
2:48
Speaker 1: Survivor pick. We gotta introduce some money line parlays. Uh.
2:53
Speaker 1: We gotta narrowed down our final five. UM reminder, I'll
2:57
Speaker 1: be on with Colin uh tomorrow, which I challenge him
3:01
Speaker 1: against his picks. Uh. Sunday morning convinced me at Action
3:05
Speaker 1: Network HQ eleven am. We've got some reviews. We did
3:09
Speaker 1: our big balls better the week on Tuesday, that was
3:11
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty niners. I'm already regretting it, Simon.
3:14
Speaker 1: I'm seeing a lot of reastarch that makes me think
3:16
Speaker 1: we want to be on the packers. We said, Simon
3:18
Speaker 1: says the Bengals, and now that that line has moved considerably, huge,
3:23
Speaker 1: huge sharp action coming in on the Bengals. They are
3:26
Speaker 1: definitely the sharp side. We're gonna go over all of it, Simon.
3:29
Speaker 1: I get these notes from this guy on Twitter, these
3:33
Speaker 1: d ms he goes by John Doe on Twitter and
3:37
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I don't know if it's you with a
3:39
Speaker 1: burner account, They are some of the best content production
3:42
Speaker 1: notes that I get and like he will give me feedback,
3:46
Speaker 1: he gives insight. He is so spot on. And today
3:51
Speaker 1: it was his note for today it was like, I
3:53
Speaker 1: think the Thursday show is really an update? What's going
3:56
Speaker 1: on with injuries? What are Simon sources saying about who
3:58
Speaker 1: will be out, who's playing? What to look for before Sunday?
4:01
Speaker 1: Also bigger look at the at the line movement, the
4:04
Speaker 1: bet percentage, the money percentage. The Falcon's Giants split is interesting.
4:08
Speaker 1: Wonder why it hasn't fallen. Do the books know something?
4:11
Speaker 1: I need to challenge you more. Last Thursday, several times
4:14
Speaker 1: you said nothing has changed, But what were you looking
4:16
Speaker 1: for to change in particular matchups? And if nothing has changed,
4:19
Speaker 1: what does that mean? Visa be the number. This guy's
4:22
Speaker 1: notes are amazing. I don't know who the funk he is.
4:24
Speaker 1: I agree with everything he said. I don't know this guy.
4:26
Speaker 1: I hate him. Okay, it sounds like he's in your head.
4:28
Speaker 1: I'm sick of it already. I hate this guy. Oh
4:31
Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe you're you're You're like a
4:34
Speaker 1: little bit challenged and a little bit sensitive. I could
4:37
Speaker 1: go tennantete with his picks to you in the DM chat.
4:39
Speaker 1: I'm cor in my position, my friend, Listen, he's not
4:43
Speaker 1: looking to to challenge you in your picks. I think
4:46
Speaker 1: he loves you and your picks. I think he's looking
4:48
Speaker 1: he wants even more information than I'm pulling from you
4:51
Speaker 1: right now. It's more of a critique of the way
4:53
Speaker 1: I'm managing the show performance. I'll never be able to
4:57
Speaker 1: give injury updates on Thursday. I'm just like everyone else.
4:59
Speaker 1: I'm I'm waiting for injury reports on Sunday. NFL teams
5:02
Speaker 1: lie constantly, but I'm always definitely the lookout and always
5:05
Speaker 1: looking for information that way. Um So, yeah, if I
5:08
Speaker 1: ever get any type of information like that, I would
5:10
Speaker 1: definitely say it on this show. So we had eight
5:13
Speaker 1: games that we had squared that we wanted to talk
5:17
Speaker 1: about that we're going to keep an eye on, and
5:18
Speaker 1: then over the past couple of days, I've had two
5:21
Speaker 1: more games that I've sort of been continuing to do
5:23
Speaker 1: research on that are making me think twice. Let's start
5:26
Speaker 1: with the eight games. I think there's a couple of
5:28
Speaker 1: games early on we can agree on Chargers plus six
5:32
Speaker 1: and a half against the Chiefs. I love this game.
5:36
Speaker 1: I love it. I continue to love it. Let me
5:38
Speaker 1: give you a little bit of data. Okay, you pointed
5:41
Speaker 1: out on Tuesday. You pointed out on Tuesday it's been
5:45
Speaker 1: nine games since the Chiefs covered the spread, excluding Week
5:50
Speaker 1: seventeen last year, a meetingless game, and they've all been
5:54
Speaker 1: one score games. You're spot on about this game. I
5:59
Speaker 1: love it. We're screwed. Uh, it feels too easy, Chat,
6:02
Speaker 1: It's definitely one of these games I keep looking at
6:05
Speaker 1: over and over again because something just feels a little
6:07
Speaker 1: off about it. Love the number though, like we talked
6:09
Speaker 1: about on Tuesday, nothing has changed in this fact six
6:12
Speaker 1: and a half grade number. I was hoping to go
6:14
Speaker 1: back to seven. That's a lot of the pros hid
6:16
Speaker 1: it at um. Still, we love the six and a
6:19
Speaker 1: half a divisional game that we've seen it. With the
6:23
Speaker 1: Chiefs defense, they can be a run on at will.
6:26
Speaker 1: And this team with the Chargers, you can see what
6:29
Speaker 1: they want. That offensive line is pretty good. They're gonna
6:32
Speaker 1: be able to run the ball against this this week
6:33
Speaker 1: Chiefs front. So we we just were expecting a very
6:36
Speaker 1: close game here. Chat. And the fact that it's two
6:38
Speaker 1: points higher than what it should be just because it
6:40
Speaker 1: is the Chiefs. This is why the Chiefs keep not covering,
6:42
Speaker 1: because the lines keep getting bumped up this way. So
6:45
Speaker 1: we're gonna keep riding this trending. We're gonna take the
6:47
Speaker 1: Chargers here. Yeah, there's a pretty specific pattern here. The
6:54
Speaker 1: Chiefs are the public darling. Their lines get over inflated,
7:00
Speaker 1: they don't cover. The games are closer than everyone thinks
7:04
Speaker 1: they should be. All reiterate one or eight in the
7:06
Speaker 1: last night against the spread. All those are one score
7:09
Speaker 1: games since two thousand three, divisional dogs of three or
7:13
Speaker 1: more according to bet Labs, are database of literally millions
7:19
Speaker 1: of data points in bedding going back to two thousand
7:22
Speaker 1: and three. Since two thousand three, divisional dogs of three
7:25
Speaker 1: or more four oh eight eighteen against the spread, which
7:31
Speaker 1: is what you need to be a profitable better um.
7:37
Speaker 1: The systems, the market, the stats are all telling us
7:43
Speaker 1: the Chargers the right side here and again. These are
7:45
Speaker 1: the kind of bets you make, and when you lose it,
7:48
Speaker 1: you don't get pissed yourself. There's nothing you can do.
7:51
Speaker 1: In the end. It comes down then playing a sport.
7:53
Speaker 1: But this is the data you need to use. People
7:54
Speaker 1: like all these little factors playing to making these kind
7:57
Speaker 1: of bets because you know, long term this is a
7:59
Speaker 1: winning in bet, and even short term this feels like
8:02
Speaker 1: the smart play because just what we've seen with these
8:04
Speaker 1: two teams, like the Chargers, both their games have been
8:07
Speaker 1: incredibly close, and we've seen it with the Chiefs. I mean,
8:09
Speaker 1: they should have dominated the Ravens, they just don't have
8:12
Speaker 1: the defense to do it. This team does not have
8:14
Speaker 1: the defense really put teams away, and they always let
8:16
Speaker 1: the back door be opened. So that's why we like
8:18
Speaker 1: this number so much. Shut the professional betters like yourself,
8:21
Speaker 1: you've probably got this game power rated at three and
8:23
Speaker 1: a half or four. Um. You also noted this is
8:27
Speaker 1: a pro versus Joe game. Majority of bets coming in
8:30
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs right now, but this line moved down
8:34
Speaker 1: from seven to six and a half and it's kind
8:35
Speaker 1: of just been sitting there. I guess the only question,
8:38
Speaker 1: Simon is do we wait, like do we think on
8:40
Speaker 1: Sunday so much more money is going to come in
8:43
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs, especially because the Chargers lost to the Cowboys,
8:46
Speaker 1: that there's a chance to get the extra half point
8:48
Speaker 1: or do we go get it now or do we
8:51
Speaker 1: get it now? And get it it. Sut, Yeah, you
8:53
Speaker 1: can get it now, you could. Wait, I don't. I
8:55
Speaker 1: just don't see it going back to seven. The pros
8:57
Speaker 1: every time they move with the seven, they hit it. Um.
9:00
Speaker 1: It's the same thing with the Ravens. Anytime the Ravens
9:02
Speaker 1: touched plus four, the professional has come back in on
9:05
Speaker 1: And that's why I kept going back on the plus
9:07
Speaker 1: three and a half last week. So it's just a
9:09
Speaker 1: pro number. Um, maybe it could, like you said, the
9:13
Speaker 1: public could come in so heavy on parlays and teasers
9:16
Speaker 1: and things like that that they could bump the back
9:18
Speaker 1: up to seven. Well, it's such a key number, like
9:20
Speaker 1: we talked all the time that I just cannot see
9:22
Speaker 1: the bookmakers do and I think they'll just keep it
9:24
Speaker 1: at six and a half. My feeling is that Charters
9:27
Speaker 1: will one be one of our best five on Sunday,
9:33
Speaker 1: no doubt. Okay, the next game we got to talk about.
9:37
Speaker 1: It's so ugly and this is where I feel like,
9:40
Speaker 1: are we making mistakes and how we're thinking about the
9:43
Speaker 1: contest right because the Jags are seven and a half
9:46
Speaker 1: point home underdogs on on paper. I know the games
9:53
Speaker 1: aren't played on paper, but bets are made on paper,
9:56
Speaker 1: on paper, one d sent we should be taking the
10:01
Speaker 1: Jags in this game. There's zero zero doubt, agree or disagree.
10:09
Speaker 1: It's again we saw it on Tuesday. It was one
10:11
Speaker 1: of those I said, this is a no brainer. You
10:13
Speaker 1: bet you bet the Jacks here, We're gonna be the
10:15
Speaker 1: only couple of people still betting the Jags. Um. We
10:19
Speaker 1: talked about it. This could be a complete meltdown of
10:21
Speaker 1: a team. UM, I wish we just trusted. I just
10:25
Speaker 1: trusted my gut when we talked, you know, a month
10:27
Speaker 1: and a half ago, and I said, yeah, not that
10:29
Speaker 1: big of a fan of Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson.
10:31
Speaker 1: Are we sure this kids should be the second pick overall?
10:33
Speaker 1: And this Jets doesn't have all these holes and the
10:36
Speaker 1: same thing the Jaguars we talked about, this team has
10:38
Speaker 1: so many holes and weaknesses. You're bringing in a college
10:41
Speaker 1: coach like Urban Meyer. He gives that terrible quote to
10:44
Speaker 1: Vic van Jo, who just seldom right down the river, saying,
10:47
Speaker 1: this guy came up with me and said, it's like
10:48
Speaker 1: you play Alabama every week, Like no ship this these guys,
10:52
Speaker 1: it's the best of the best. Um Man bad chat, bad, bad, bad.
10:58
Speaker 1: It could all be on fire. Yes, I will not
11:00
Speaker 1: make people put this in our in our contest because
11:03
Speaker 1: I feel bad losing people's good, hard earned money on
11:06
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But you have to bet this game. It's
11:09
Speaker 1: such a pro game. You take the seven and a
11:11
Speaker 1: half home dog against a team that what a win
11:14
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. They know they got away with him
11:16
Speaker 1: last week. They're gonna be feeling good all this week.
11:18
Speaker 1: We like to fade Kingsbury. It's we do not believe
11:22
Speaker 1: this guy's head coach. And on top of that, the
11:24
Speaker 1: Cardinals defense is one of the you know, worst grade
11:28
Speaker 1: of defenses this year. They can be run on, huge,
11:31
Speaker 1: gaping holes for that team, especially last week in Stalvin Cook.
11:34
Speaker 1: So it's a game we think Robinson will get right
11:37
Speaker 1: and Trevor Lawrence. You won't turn the boliver as much.
11:39
Speaker 1: Seven and a half. It's too big of a number.
11:41
Speaker 1: This Cardinals team should not be favored by that much.
11:43
Speaker 1: So yeah, because look like idiots come next week when
11:46
Speaker 1: the Jaguars get blown out again. But I have to
11:49
Speaker 1: as a professional bettert number. But I'm not. I'm not
11:51
Speaker 1: gonna make you make our best five chat. Don't worry.
11:55
Speaker 1: It is a sharp play only be because when a
12:01
Speaker 1: team is this big of an underdog at home, you
12:04
Speaker 1: historically have to bet it. And the Cardinals, I think
12:07
Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters they look at these games
12:09
Speaker 1: and think the Cardinals are suspect. They think a they
12:13
Speaker 1: can't trust Cliff Kingsbury. We know this. Matt Mitchell knows this.
12:17
Speaker 1: He's done his Cliff Kingsbury rant. Have you about the
12:21
Speaker 1: Lords and loser? He's all us about. He still keeps
12:27
Speaker 1: I'll try. They are a a shoot for the moon,
12:35
Speaker 1: need miracle, big plays in order to win games. We
12:38
Speaker 1: saw it against Minnesota. That Minnesota team is not very good.
12:42
Speaker 1: There's the jury still out on this Tennessee team. They
12:44
Speaker 1: might not be very good. They've played, you know, two
12:47
Speaker 1: games plus an extra quarter except for the fourth quarter
12:51
Speaker 1: they have and and that overtime. They haven't been very good.
12:54
Speaker 1: And so now the Cardinals. If you start to look back,
12:56
Speaker 1: this is when we start to get a little bit,
12:57
Speaker 1: you know, of the opportunity to see how these teams
13:00
Speaker 1: have played. Carters will play two teams that might be
13:02
Speaker 1: mediocre but have one in spectacular fashion. Every fiber of
13:06
Speaker 1: our being should say, take the Jags in this spot, Um,
13:10
Speaker 1: there's plenty of systems that will tell you owing two
13:12
Speaker 1: teams as dogs at home are the right side. But
13:18
Speaker 1: urban Meyer genuinely is out of his debt. And you
13:22
Speaker 1: mentioned the vic Banjio thing. He sounded like tweetled Dean tweeedled,
13:26
Speaker 1: don't what a tool. The reason I'm so call shop
13:29
Speaker 1: putting this one in is because the Jets. This reminds
13:33
Speaker 1: me of the Jets last year. The Jets and the
13:35
Speaker 1: Cowboys I think both started your own five or owned
13:37
Speaker 1: six against the spread. So some of these teams that suck,
13:40
Speaker 1: they just simply suck and they just don't cover because
13:42
Speaker 1: they are so bad and so on. Now, the coaching
13:46
Speaker 1: is the biggest thing in football. If you don't have
13:48
Speaker 1: the coaching, doesn't matter all the skill and talent you
13:50
Speaker 1: have on the team, it's just not gonna mesh well.
13:51
Speaker 1: So that's that's why I'm such I'm so hesitant to
13:54
Speaker 1: put it in our place, just because of that factor.
13:56
Speaker 1: It's like, you know what, maybe the Jaguars aren't the
14:00
Speaker 1: right value yet, and the bookmakers they're still trying to
14:02
Speaker 1: catch up to it, and everyone's getting good read here
14:04
Speaker 1: are the Cardinals. But like you just said, Chad. The
14:06
Speaker 1: own two trends is what we're playing off of here
14:09
Speaker 1: and own two trend of you know, I believe it's
14:12
Speaker 1: have well above six percent clip the last couple of
14:15
Speaker 1: years of this. The week three teams that haven't covered
14:17
Speaker 1: against the spread yet. So we we were gonna avoid
14:20
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons were owing two against the spread. But
14:23
Speaker 1: we ain't gonna avoid the Jaguars. We're bad and the
14:25
Speaker 1: Jaguars comes some day. Well, I'm gonna give you all
14:28
Speaker 1: the O and two trends and and I blatantly stole
14:31
Speaker 1: these O and two trends uh from Stuckey Action Network hand.
14:35
Speaker 1: It was Stucky the Volume podcast Network. Fans can hear
14:40
Speaker 1: him on John Middlecops podcast every week. People should download
14:44
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast, one of the top sixty ranked
14:48
Speaker 1: sports podcasts. Uh. He and Chris Raybon will go over
14:52
Speaker 1: there Sunday six pack and he loves the O and
14:56
Speaker 1: two trends and has a litany of them. And I
14:58
Speaker 1: know that we're going to get to its team that
15:00
Speaker 1: we love as an Owen two dog. But I will
15:03
Speaker 1: weigh them all out. Um, but at this point, the Jags,
15:09
Speaker 1: it's a pass for me. Yeah, we pass. I love
15:13
Speaker 1: that we're being mature enough to recognize that that we're
15:16
Speaker 1: not just saying, oh yeah, we gotta take it. It's
15:18
Speaker 1: a pass. I was better personally. That's why like I'm
15:22
Speaker 1: trying to put my best five in this thing where
15:23
Speaker 1: it's like I I feel terrible about last week with
15:28
Speaker 1: Atlanta because that was just brutal. These people are such
15:31
Speaker 1: high hopes. You know, they're only down three, they had
15:33
Speaker 1: the ball back to back pick six is and a
15:35
Speaker 1: Brady touchdown later. They're down twenty one. So I'm gonna
15:38
Speaker 1: be trying to be a little more sharper with this contest,
15:39
Speaker 1: for I won't always just put in the sharp numbers
15:42
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Colts. The Titans are five five
15:46
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. You like the Titans? Uh?
15:50
Speaker 1: If I can, I'm throwing a challenge flag. I'm starting
15:54
Speaker 1: to feel like I like the Colts. I'm sure you do.
15:56
Speaker 1: It's the sharp better the week. That's why I'm fading it.
15:58
Speaker 1: It's it's too how can how can people have been
16:02
Speaker 1: on the Colts when this quarterback position is deceased? They
16:05
Speaker 1: do not have a quarterback on this roster right now,
16:07
Speaker 1: and maybe this Ski will come in and let up
16:10
Speaker 1: the world because Tennessee's cornerbacks are that bad. But I
16:14
Speaker 1: can't do it, can't play with him, can't win with them.
16:16
Speaker 1: Uh now, I'm just I would just stay away from
16:19
Speaker 1: I wouldn't make you put in our contest. But it's
16:21
Speaker 1: one of the few favorites I do like this week
16:23
Speaker 1: where if this was Carson Wentz, I'd be all over
16:26
Speaker 1: the Colts in a divisional game. This line should be three,
16:28
Speaker 1: three and a half because I don't, like we talked
16:29
Speaker 1: about all year, I don't think Tennessee as good as
16:31
Speaker 1: people think they are. But with a backup quarterback on
16:34
Speaker 1: this Colts team, when they don't have a left tackle
16:36
Speaker 1: on this team, uh yeah, I can't. Can't do it
16:39
Speaker 1: with the Colts. So you don't feel like you feel
16:43
Speaker 1: like there's that much of a drop off from Carson
16:45
Speaker 1: Wentz to Jacob Eason. Don't you feel like you might
16:47
Speaker 1: still be over rating Carson Wentz just a little bit?
16:50
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz who just lost the three points at home
16:52
Speaker 1: to the Rams. No, I think he's properly rated. He's good,
16:55
Speaker 1: but he's not great. He's better than this backup quarterback
16:58
Speaker 1: they're bringing Easton let's he a sixth round pick. The
17:02
Speaker 1: way in which you just dismissed my comment about Carson Wentz, Uh,
17:08
Speaker 1: that was kind of hurtful because if he played on
17:10
Speaker 1: the Bears in the last twenty years, he'd be the
17:12
Speaker 1: greatest quarterback that ever played for the Bears. So it's
17:15
Speaker 1: one of those where it's like, yeah, I I a
17:17
Speaker 1: little bit. The guy was won m VP in his
17:19
Speaker 1: second year in the league. Um, no doubt, though, I'm
17:22
Speaker 1: with you that I am. I'm off Carson Wentz though.
17:26
Speaker 1: That's why I'm not going to defend them to my
17:28
Speaker 1: grave anymore. I'm I'm done with Carson. Listen, if he
17:31
Speaker 1: was on the Bears, then all of a sudden, I'd
17:33
Speaker 1: be waving around at Carson Wentz babbo head instead of
17:37
Speaker 1: a sid luckman. All Right, Well, I don't know that
17:41
Speaker 1: we can put this one in the contest. I don't
17:42
Speaker 1: know that you and I can come to me and
17:44
Speaker 1: we disagree too much on it. I don't like it.
17:46
Speaker 1: The other one that I think we're going to disagree on,
17:50
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Detroit as massive road favorites,
17:56
Speaker 1: and like this goes everything. We don't believe in is
18:02
Speaker 1: is in this game right now. It is a massive
18:05
Speaker 1: road favorite, getting all the bets of money against an
18:10
Speaker 1: O and two team like how come loss of a
18:14
Speaker 1: prime time loss and a team in the Ravens that
18:18
Speaker 1: has a prime time win. Everything is out of whack.
18:21
Speaker 1: Everything is out of whack. Lamar breaks the rules. The
18:25
Speaker 1: universe is off of its access in this game. I've
18:31
Speaker 1: lost too much money going against Lamar against bad teams.
18:33
Speaker 1: I will not do it. This guy in this to
18:36
Speaker 1: your career of just taking money from me. When I'm like, oh,
18:39
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals are thirteen dog and against the Ravens.
18:43
Speaker 1: Here gotta take the Bengals. They lose by one. I
18:46
Speaker 1: can't do it anymore. I can't take these dogs against Lamar.
18:50
Speaker 1: He just beats the ship out of these bad teams.
18:52
Speaker 1: And okay, I'm I am with I'm sure you listen
18:55
Speaker 1: to stuff. And he talked about all the injuries the
18:57
Speaker 1: Ravens have and how they kind of got lucky against
18:59
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I think the lines have been lucky and
19:03
Speaker 1: that they've had these kind of matchups where they've been
19:05
Speaker 1: in these games. And we saw golf got affected by
19:09
Speaker 1: the rain last week Okay, that's kind of his out
19:11
Speaker 1: there in the second half he fell apart. It was
19:13
Speaker 1: because of the rain. The guy couldn't grip the ball. Apparently,
19:16
Speaker 1: um just cannot seeing a track meet the Lions keeping
19:19
Speaker 1: up with this Ravens team. Uh so we don't have
19:23
Speaker 1: to put it in Chad. But again, this is one
19:25
Speaker 1: of these games. I will be betting the Ravens and
19:27
Speaker 1: I I'm gonna be chalking. I'll probably have them in
19:31
Speaker 1: a ton of teas and moneyline parladies. I just love
19:33
Speaker 1: the Ravens to win these games. I think he's fourteen
19:35
Speaker 1: and one against teams below five hundred in his career, Lamar,
19:38
Speaker 1: So sign me up, chat, I love the Ravens. It's
19:42
Speaker 1: so interesting because everything we're saying about the Jaguars, about
19:46
Speaker 1: why we like the Jaguars in their game against the
19:49
Speaker 1: Cardinals are apply to the Lions one on one against
19:55
Speaker 1: the spread, So you have to throw out all your
19:56
Speaker 1: own two stats. But they aren't owing two team oh
20:00
Speaker 1: and two teams that are straight up since that since
20:04
Speaker 1: two thousand to fifty thirty six and one against the spread.
20:08
Speaker 1: It's actually pretty good. Yeah, but again, there's thirty six
20:12
Speaker 1: of them that don't cover, and that's what I'm betting
20:14
Speaker 1: on here. Well, I guess you make your money by
20:18
Speaker 1: being a contrarian. I can't always like I can't always
20:22
Speaker 1: do the sharp plays. That's the thing people don't get.
20:24
Speaker 1: There's something like I took on the chin last week
20:26
Speaker 1: trying to go against the Sharps, and we talked on
20:28
Speaker 1: the phone, like we had the Seahawks in and I
20:30
Speaker 1: was like, I think we wanted to take it out.
20:31
Speaker 1: I've had too many sharps hit me up there, like
20:33
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. So again I am I am one to
20:36
Speaker 1: be humbled constantly, like I'm never too cocky or anything
20:39
Speaker 1: to be like, no, this is I know what I'm
20:41
Speaker 1: doing here. We're taking the Seahawks because one of these
20:43
Speaker 1: guys now now, Like I try to listen to people
20:45
Speaker 1: that are coming in with good information, so I do.
20:48
Speaker 1: This is one of these few games where I do
20:50
Speaker 1: feel like I will be with the public on um
20:52
Speaker 1: and I feel comfortable with it. Like if this is
20:54
Speaker 1: Week ten, I'd probably with you. I'd probably would be
20:57
Speaker 1: taking the Culture. I probably would be taking the Tennessee
20:59
Speaker 1: Titans here, But because it's so earlier in the season,
21:01
Speaker 1: I feel more punkable taking these kind of favorites. What
21:04
Speaker 1: calls have you gotten? So we did the podcast on Tuesday,
21:06
Speaker 1: We go over every game. I saw you yesterday and
21:09
Speaker 1: you said you were already getting calls from other professional
21:12
Speaker 1: betters about some of the games that we had discussed.
21:16
Speaker 1: What are some of the games that professional betters called
21:19
Speaker 1: you about? So multiple calls were about our Washington Uh,
21:23
Speaker 1: Buffalo pick I talked about I like Buffalo, I liked
21:26
Speaker 1: um going against a guy making his first career starting
21:29
Speaker 1: the road and Heineke and man did I get a
21:32
Speaker 1: lot of calls. So they were nine maybe nine and
21:35
Speaker 1: a half at the time we talked about it. So
21:37
Speaker 1: these pros who called me, they've like we talked about yesterday,
21:39
Speaker 1: and I think it was down to eight and a
21:41
Speaker 1: half at the time that I was down to seven
21:43
Speaker 1: on family. So the professionals have clearly they know something
21:48
Speaker 1: here and they're making a statement, and we talked about it.
21:50
Speaker 1: I thought Josh Allen didn't look right in that Miami game.
21:53
Speaker 1: I thought he still didn't look as what he did
21:55
Speaker 1: last year, where the offense just looked easy and smooth
21:58
Speaker 1: and he really couldn't miss. And he's making great reads
22:02
Speaker 1: this has to be a good, right game for him.
22:03
Speaker 1: That's why I don't really get the love for Washington,
22:05
Speaker 1: like it was Washington really gonna keep up with this
22:07
Speaker 1: team where we saw Washington give up all those yards
22:10
Speaker 1: to Daniel Jones. I just Josh Allen is the Daniel
22:15
Speaker 1: Jones could only dream of being what Josh Allen is now.
22:17
Speaker 1: Like Josh Allen is the dream. He's a big, strong
22:19
Speaker 1: quarterback that can run and throw the ball downfield. So
22:22
Speaker 1: for me, I understand why the pros like this game.
22:26
Speaker 1: It's a big number against the team in Buffalo that
22:28
Speaker 1: we talked about all year. It's just regression, regression, aggression.
22:32
Speaker 1: But I'll take the bills here. Um, it's I'm a
22:36
Speaker 1: little chalky this week chat. But now that's down to seven,
22:39
Speaker 1: I'm happy taking the bills here. Well that's what I
22:42
Speaker 1: was gonna say, Like, it's getting to a point where
22:45
Speaker 1: you might want to take the bills because the number
22:47
Speaker 1: has moved. It's moved so much. The one thing I
22:51
Speaker 1: would say about this game, Ron Rivera does not have
22:55
Speaker 1: games in which he wins or loses by eight, by
22:58
Speaker 1: more than eight points. That's your is not a trend
23:01
Speaker 1: in his career as a coach. And the only other
23:04
Speaker 1: thing that I would say about this is that the
23:06
Speaker 1: total is pretty low, like the totals, and so if
23:10
Speaker 1: you think, like if you're gonna bet a number of
23:12
Speaker 1: a touchdown or more, which is what this is at,
23:15
Speaker 1: that's a big number to bet on a total that
23:17
Speaker 1: is this low. Again, it's a fad on Heinechi. That's
23:21
Speaker 1: why I feel it's interesting how much confidence people have
23:24
Speaker 1: back in them where it's like, I don't know, it's
23:27
Speaker 1: a lot of unknown with this kid. Um Again, he
23:29
Speaker 1: looked great against the Buccaneers in the playoffs, the one
23:31
Speaker 1: game he played last year, and then he looked really
23:34
Speaker 1: good against the Giants. He's had two career starts in
23:37
Speaker 1: both of them are at home. So it's I just
23:40
Speaker 1: can't back this kid on his first start on the road.
23:43
Speaker 1: Let me give you one more system. Okay, are you ready?
23:48
Speaker 1: Teams that cover by more than twenty points since two
23:54
Speaker 1: thousand three the next week eight two one oh five
24:01
Speaker 1: and six against the spread, So you are going against
24:04
Speaker 1: a trend that wins at about at seven percent clip,
24:09
Speaker 1: And we talked about that. I didn't I don't like
24:11
Speaker 1: that they're coming off such a big win, but what
24:14
Speaker 1: goes into that is all again, the Miami had three
24:18
Speaker 1: zeros uh in the red zone, so they went to
24:21
Speaker 1: the reds in three different times and they didn't get
24:22
Speaker 1: any points out of it, and two I went down
24:25
Speaker 1: early in the first So that kind of game plan
24:27
Speaker 1: was all thrown out because we have a team that's
24:30
Speaker 1: all built around to the way that system is built.
24:32
Speaker 1: They do run option or it's not meant to do
24:35
Speaker 1: run option place. This guy is kind of a standard
24:37
Speaker 1: the pocket kind of quarterback. He's not really a runner.
24:39
Speaker 1: So a lot of things changed in Miami game where
24:41
Speaker 1: it's kind of a fluke and I kind of just
24:43
Speaker 1: throw it out again. The only negative I took from
24:46
Speaker 1: that game is I just didn't think Josh Allen looked right.
24:48
Speaker 1: I still think he doesn't look what he did last year.
24:50
Speaker 1: That's the only thing that's really giving me pause where
24:52
Speaker 1: I wouldn't make this one of our five, but I'm
24:54
Speaker 1: probably not going through just because of that. I love
24:57
Speaker 1: I love this because it is like I'm bringing you
25:01
Speaker 1: the broad numbers and you're telling me why they make sense,
25:06
Speaker 1: but why the elements of this situation actually play against that.
25:11
Speaker 1: And I can't argue with you at all. Like we've
25:13
Speaker 1: already talked about, we've entered this new era of coaching
25:17
Speaker 1: of the non c I a decision. We saw it
25:20
Speaker 1: with Frank Reich and the Colts going forward consistently on
25:23
Speaker 1: fourth and goal, the Dolphins going consistently for it, the
25:26
Speaker 1: Eagles going consistently for it. Um, I can't argue with it. Yeah,
25:31
Speaker 1: it messes with these numbers too. We had a bunch
25:33
Speaker 1: of games last week that you should have been covering
25:35
Speaker 1: are winning out right, and you weren't because these teams
25:37
Speaker 1: are successful in those positions. Yeah, it's totally true. So
25:41
Speaker 1: all right, the other game that I know, wise guys
25:44
Speaker 1: have hit aggressively. This was your Simon says, bet it's
25:49
Speaker 1: still on our list. Cincinnati Bengals on Tuesday. They were
25:52
Speaker 1: at plus four and a half against the Steelers. You said,
25:56
Speaker 1: Simon says, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it,
25:58
Speaker 1: bet it. Now it's plus three. Yeah, so we kind
26:04
Speaker 1: of knew the pros are gonna coming on that, and
26:05
Speaker 1: it was more of a hedge against Roethlisberger. Um, I've
26:10
Speaker 1: kind of read that he was he was a little
26:12
Speaker 1: banged up, and what do we have if we have
26:15
Speaker 1: a team in Pittsburgh that has a lot of injuries
26:17
Speaker 1: and a lot of key positions. That's what we talked
26:18
Speaker 1: about on Tuesday, and I thought this number should be three.
26:21
Speaker 1: In an divisional game, it's pretty much a coin flip
26:23
Speaker 1: between both these teams. Both these teams at the bottom
26:25
Speaker 1: of their division. We know that they're fighting. They're gonna
26:27
Speaker 1: be both of them when we fight each other for
26:29
Speaker 1: the last spot in this division. So four and a half.
26:32
Speaker 1: We love the number. Three and a half. We would
26:34
Speaker 1: still take it, but at three, I can't. I can't
26:37
Speaker 1: make people out there ticket. If you're gonna take it,
26:39
Speaker 1: maybe just take the money line here, because you've already
26:40
Speaker 1: missed all the value of four and a half four
26:42
Speaker 1: and three and a half. But for our picks, chat, uh,
26:46
Speaker 1: if we get three and a half as our best five,
26:48
Speaker 1: we are a hucent gonna have the Bengals on. I
26:52
Speaker 1: agree with you, But this is definitely a wait for
26:56
Speaker 1: the number, play the number, get the hook scenario. You
26:59
Speaker 1: want that look. It feels this is a like I
27:01
Speaker 1: had a great at a field goal game. That's what
27:03
Speaker 1: I think Pitture's gonna win by field goal. That's why
27:05
Speaker 1: we love the hook. It just it feels you're a
27:07
Speaker 1: good number for this game. Well, it also it speaks
27:09
Speaker 1: to that divisional game, right like, this is going to
27:12
Speaker 1: be a game that is tight. It is going to
27:14
Speaker 1: be a game where it comes down to the wire.
27:16
Speaker 1: To me, it's gonna be like that Chiefs and Chargers game,
27:19
Speaker 1: which is why that Chiefs Chargers spread is so uh,
27:22
Speaker 1: it's so inflated, and why you want to take the
27:24
Speaker 1: Charger as well. It's like last week we talked, I said,
27:26
Speaker 1: I like the Bengals at three and a half, but
27:28
Speaker 1: below three and a in the number three, we like
27:31
Speaker 1: the Bears. Last week that number literally landed on three
27:33
Speaker 1: by hook or by crook. I mean, it doesn't make
27:35
Speaker 1: sense how it ended up at three because it was
27:37
Speaker 1: twenty three and the fourth quarter, but it did. So
27:40
Speaker 1: that's why we're always trying to get the best number
27:42
Speaker 1: out here, because it is so important these early weeks here.
27:45
Speaker 1: Half a point can make a big difference. Get the
27:48
Speaker 1: best of the number. It's an old sports betting axiom.
27:52
Speaker 1: They should put that sports betting axiom in the Hall
27:55
Speaker 1: of Fame. They should put it right above the entry
27:57
Speaker 1: and everyone should have to slap it when they walk in.
28:04
Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at FanDuel. The
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Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona. Let's
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Speaker 1: get back to the show, all right, This is the
29:59
Speaker 1: game that we got to talk abou the Miami Dolphins
30:01
Speaker 1: with Jacobe Prisette going to the Las Vegas Raiders Oh
30:05
Speaker 1: my god, dude, pro Joe Taylor made Miami. The line
30:10
Speaker 1: is getting bigger. We are all over this game. Nothing
30:13
Speaker 1: has changed for us. The only thing that's changed is
30:15
Speaker 1: that like we like this game. We like this game
30:19
Speaker 1: even more. Yeah, it's classic. We we bet this game,
30:22
Speaker 1: then we take a shower afterwards. It's disgusting. It's the
30:25
Speaker 1: grossest bet. So we Chad wanted some sharp bets. This
30:29
Speaker 1: is This is one of our sharp five. This is
30:31
Speaker 1: like one of my There's a lot of different reasons
30:35
Speaker 1: to take this number, but the biggest one is Oakland
30:38
Speaker 1: is everyone's fan favorite. Now, I mean, who the hell
30:41
Speaker 1: is talking about Derek Carr for m v P? Now? Everyone?
30:43
Speaker 1: What the what? What world are we living in? Uh?
30:47
Speaker 1: It seems weird again. I don't want to hate on
30:49
Speaker 1: Derek car too much. We talked about I like Derek
30:51
Speaker 1: Carr coming to the year. I thought this guy could
30:53
Speaker 1: lead the league in a passing. But two weeks he's
30:56
Speaker 1: people's m v P. Now is the time we fade
30:58
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So yes, give me the four and a half,
31:00
Speaker 1: give me the four. Publics coming in so heavy on
31:03
Speaker 1: the Raiders Las Vegas Raiders an hour, I think are
31:05
Speaker 1: getting the bet, so we're we're we're happy in our
31:10
Speaker 1: position right now taking the four and a half. What's
31:13
Speaker 1: interesting is the yeah, it's of the bets on the
31:21
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders with Derek Carr, a quarterback who Simon
31:26
Speaker 1: Hunter said before the season began, Uh, he loved and
31:29
Speaker 1: thought was a very good quarterback. Um, it turns out
31:31
Speaker 1: he's spot on and only about fifty of the money.
31:35
Speaker 1: It's evenly split. So that tells you that, um, that
31:39
Speaker 1: the wise guys are coming in strong on the Dolphins.
31:43
Speaker 1: Let me give and in the Derek Carr stuff, we
31:46
Speaker 1: we don't know how serious this injury is to Derek Carr.
31:49
Speaker 1: That's that's what's making me like betting this so much.
31:51
Speaker 1: The same thing is we haven't talked about yet with
31:52
Speaker 1: the Bears. I don't think there'd been as serious as
31:55
Speaker 1: telling us what's going on Baker and his injury. Okay,
31:58
Speaker 1: like I literally didn't throw the ball after you supposedly
32:00
Speaker 1: popped his shoulder and popped it back in. So it's
32:04
Speaker 1: a lot of Bears, a lot of questions here are
32:06
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks coming into Week three? But this is in
32:09
Speaker 1: every scenario, right, the Raiders are overvalued coming off of
32:13
Speaker 1: huge upsets in games that were very high profile and
32:17
Speaker 1: very very dramatic the Fins with a backup quarterback, and
32:21
Speaker 1: in reality from a power rating perspective, from a handicapping perspective,
32:25
Speaker 1: how much would you drop the Dolphins which Kobe Brissette
32:29
Speaker 1: playing against instead of to a I did only move
32:31
Speaker 1: at a half a point, But it's because of sample
32:33
Speaker 1: to it to it just hasn't played enough games for
32:35
Speaker 1: me to really have a hot such a high grade
32:36
Speaker 1: on them. Where Brisset, again, he's not one of the
32:40
Speaker 1: thirty two best quarterbacks, but he's a good backup to half.
32:43
Speaker 1: The guy has arm strength you smeared with the ball.
32:45
Speaker 1: We're gonna see a much different team this week when
32:47
Speaker 1: he has a whole week to practice and they could
32:49
Speaker 1: kind of scheme the offense around Brisset and having the
32:51
Speaker 1: whole offense puilt around to a last week where he
32:54
Speaker 1: just came in off the bench and tried to make
32:56
Speaker 1: it work. So again, we're getting such an undervalue a
33:00
Speaker 1: team here in Miami. Um, it's hard not to take
33:02
Speaker 1: this number. We love the Miami Dolphins here, just love them.
33:06
Speaker 1: That'd be our ugliest dog, right like, we don't if
33:08
Speaker 1: it's either them or the Jacks, we gotta pick one
33:10
Speaker 1: of them to put in. I feel more comforable in Miami.
33:13
Speaker 1: I do too. We haven't hornets nested any game, and
33:17
Speaker 1: I have a feeling this could be it the Rams
33:22
Speaker 1: and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Scared. I'm starting to get scared. Chad,
33:26
Speaker 1: help me. I'm scared. Tell me why right now that
33:29
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are one point favorites, the number is flipped.
33:33
Speaker 1: They were one point dogs of the bets on Tampa,
33:39
Speaker 1: of the money on Tampa, so a lot less money
33:42
Speaker 1: than bets on Tampa. What are you afraid of? Are
33:44
Speaker 1: you afraid that, like our initial handicap at the Rams
33:47
Speaker 1: on the right side isn't the right side. I'm just
33:50
Speaker 1: scared that I've like bet too much money already on
33:52
Speaker 1: the Rams. And it's like, oh my god, why am
33:54
Speaker 1: I going against Tom Brady like this? What am I doing? Like?
33:56
Speaker 1: Can't I just avoid this game? Um? Everything points to
34:00
Speaker 1: the Rams like we talked about on Tuesday. But this
34:02
Speaker 1: is just the classic where I'm like overthinking it too much,
34:05
Speaker 1: where it's like, Okay, the Rams, who they beat? They
34:07
Speaker 1: beat the Bears with Andy Dalton and then they beat
34:10
Speaker 1: like you headed on Carson Wentz and the Colts. It's
34:13
Speaker 1: a little nerve racking, but at the same time, I
34:15
Speaker 1: have to trust my system and trust these numbers. And
34:17
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, the Rams are up the plus two
34:18
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. If they get to three,
34:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have way too much money bet on this
34:24
Speaker 1: Rams team as a home dog. The Buccaneers are just
34:27
Speaker 1: so incredibly overvalued. Aaron Donald. If you can get one
34:31
Speaker 1: shot on Brady, that might be all she wrote for
34:34
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers this season. I mean, this guy, this is
34:37
Speaker 1: this is the exact reason you take the Rams um.
34:41
Speaker 1: I know that the Henderson injury is a big deal
34:43
Speaker 1: for them at running back, but they also still have
34:44
Speaker 1: Sonny Michelle there. I can't make us put it as
34:47
Speaker 1: one of our one of our five. So it's it's
34:49
Speaker 1: gonna be up to you on Sunday. But yes, people,
34:52
Speaker 1: I will be back in the Rams. I know McVeigh.
34:54
Speaker 1: Someone told me he's like oh and three as a
34:55
Speaker 1: home dog. I don't care. Okay, that's too small of
34:58
Speaker 1: a sample. I'm in on the Fay. I'm in on
35:00
Speaker 1: this team, and I really like him in this position
35:02
Speaker 1: as a home Dog. We are in the hornets nest, folks,
35:06
Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll
35:08
Speaker 1: be my companion on Honns walking into a hornets nest
35:22
Speaker 1: because I feel like everything you're saying is true. The
35:25
Speaker 1: one thing I need you to tell me is what
35:26
Speaker 1: do you have this power? Rated dot? I headed a
35:29
Speaker 1: minus one of the rams, so when I opened I
35:30
Speaker 1: think they might have been minus one or minus two.
35:33
Speaker 1: I thought, okay, that's a fair fair number. Um, when
35:36
Speaker 1: we talked about we like Brady as a dog, I mean,
35:38
Speaker 1: he's great against the spread as a dog. But now
35:40
Speaker 1: that shifted, maybe it's gonna end up shifting five points.
35:44
Speaker 1: That's that's that's a big, big, big movement. So it
35:48
Speaker 1: might not always work out first riding with the books here,
35:51
Speaker 1: but this is one of these positions I feel corporable
35:53
Speaker 1: back in with the books and taking this home dog. Um.
35:57
Speaker 1: Oh goodness, oh goodness. All right, So right now, the
36:01
Speaker 1: way I'm looking at it, we definitely have the Chargers
36:04
Speaker 1: as one of our five. We definitely have the Dolphins
36:08
Speaker 1: as one of our five. Ah, I'm as much as
36:12
Speaker 1: that scares me to bet against Tom Brady, I kind
36:16
Speaker 1: of agree with you on this game. Uh, I do
36:19
Speaker 1: like the Rams here. I'm still you're you're convincing me.
36:23
Speaker 1: It's a it's a it's a good scheme. I mean
36:25
Speaker 1: they beat the Bucks last year too. With golf people
36:28
Speaker 1: people forget that little detail. Um, but we can. We're
36:32
Speaker 1: gonna talk about it. This is it feels like we're
36:34
Speaker 1: gonna have to take this one here, the Rams. We're
36:35
Speaker 1: gonna have to take Minnesota Vikings again Seattle, like we're
36:38
Speaker 1: gonna have to take one of these home dogs where
36:40
Speaker 1: we we like these teams and the situation is just
36:43
Speaker 1: right for them to be in. So I'm gonna leave
36:46
Speaker 1: that up to you on Sunday. But right now, Chat,
36:48
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I have to do it to you. You're
36:50
Speaker 1: gonna have to pick between one of these home dogs here,
36:52
Speaker 1: between the Vikings in Seattle or the Rams versus the Buccaneers.
36:55
Speaker 1: I do want to challenge you on the Vikings for
36:58
Speaker 1: a second. And that's the next game on our list
37:00
Speaker 1: that we had talked about and pegged the Vikings as
37:03
Speaker 1: short home dogs. Is it possible that this team isn't
37:08
Speaker 1: very good and that um, we're making a mistake and
37:14
Speaker 1: overvaluing the situation they're in and the coaching ability of
37:20
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer. They're not good. We took their under first
37:24
Speaker 1: season win tools. We were one of the few people
37:26
Speaker 1: that were banging the drum to take this team's under,
37:28
Speaker 1: and I talked about how I didn't have them coming
37:30
Speaker 1: in second in the North where everyone else has betting
37:32
Speaker 1: them to come in second. We end up talking about
37:34
Speaker 1: how we like the Bears better than the Vikings. But no,
37:37
Speaker 1: this is situational. We have a team that's just played
37:40
Speaker 1: back to back road games. Now they're coming home, and
37:43
Speaker 1: we've seen it. The Vikings always play better at homes.
37:46
Speaker 1: Zimmer in his career is above sixty against the spread
37:48
Speaker 1: at home, I believe. So we have to chat. This
37:51
Speaker 1: is just you take a team that you know what
37:57
Speaker 1: what you said is true. This could be an absolutely
37:59
Speaker 1: dumpster fire, like after they missed that field goal. And
38:01
Speaker 1: we know that Zimmer and Kirk Cousins are button heads
38:03
Speaker 1: about the whole vaccine and everything like that. But it's
38:07
Speaker 1: getting up to two now two and a half. If
38:09
Speaker 1: this lands at three once again, there's there's no there's
38:12
Speaker 1: no world. I don't bet on the Vikings is a
38:14
Speaker 1: plus three home dog to the Seattle team that just
38:17
Speaker 1: got ran on, I mean absolutely ran on by the
38:20
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans in the second half. And the blocking scheme
38:23
Speaker 1: is way better with the Vikings, and they ha Dalvin Cook,
38:25
Speaker 1: who's just as good as running back is Derrick Henry.
38:27
Speaker 1: So it's just those things all point to taking Minnesota
38:31
Speaker 1: here in this game. We love the Minnesota Vikings, and
38:39
Speaker 1: I feel like it might burn us. I honestly feel
38:42
Speaker 1: like I'd almost rather bet on the Rams on Sunday
38:45
Speaker 1: than on the Vikings. I can't fault you for it.
38:48
Speaker 1: I hate betting on Kirk Cousins too. That was when
38:50
Speaker 1: I lost that money line. I didn't blame the kicker.
38:52
Speaker 1: I'd blame Kirk Cousins for just being fucking terrible. So
38:54
Speaker 1: will you have Well, you know, last week we talked
38:57
Speaker 1: a lot about this ended up the Ravens where your
38:59
Speaker 1: biggest bet of the week. Do you think the Rams
39:01
Speaker 1: will end up being your biggest bet of the week.
39:03
Speaker 1: No chance, just because it's Brady Like. If it was
39:06
Speaker 1: anyone other if it was any other quarterback, it would be.
39:08
Speaker 1: But like I have it, and when I have a
39:10
Speaker 1: notebook with a bunch of ferent notes and one of
39:12
Speaker 1: the biggest things I have circled for my early days.
39:15
Speaker 1: Don't fucking bet a lot of money against Brady, and
39:18
Speaker 1: that has saved me a lot of money in my life.
39:20
Speaker 1: Chat I'll never forget. In the Super Bowl, I was
39:21
Speaker 1: gonna bet pretty big on the Rams, and I was
39:24
Speaker 1: just going through my old notebook. I opened that up
39:26
Speaker 1: and it's said in big letters, don't fucking bet against
39:29
Speaker 1: don't bet big money against Tom Brady. So I said,
39:31
Speaker 1: fuck it. I'll take newing them Patriots against the Rams.
39:33
Speaker 1: They dominated them. So it's it sounds stupid, it sounds simple,
39:37
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm happy being the last one to fade Brady. Um,
39:43
Speaker 1: It's worked out for me his career. This guy every
39:44
Speaker 1: year just keeps coming back. So I'll be patient with that,
39:47
Speaker 1: except this weekend when we bet on the Rams. In fact. Um,
39:53
Speaker 1: all right, here's another one of my challenges. You said
39:57
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, the Niners. Where are big balls better? The
39:59
Speaker 1: week minus three and a half? Every trend says, go
40:03
Speaker 1: get the Packers. Yeah, everyone's gonna hate it too. Everyone's
40:06
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about the cornerbacks of the forty Niners.
40:08
Speaker 1: How Rodger's gonna be able to have a field day
40:10
Speaker 1: with it. Got unlucky with the Eagles. I told you
40:13
Speaker 1: they did. The Eagle should have won that game. That's
40:15
Speaker 1: why I like the four Niners in this game. This
40:17
Speaker 1: is a a team that they had a bad week
40:20
Speaker 1: last week. They still got the win, which is something
40:22
Speaker 1: great teams do. Now they're playing a team that is
40:25
Speaker 1: incredibly overvalued because they had a big win in prime time. Chad.
40:30
Speaker 1: Their defense, I'm telling you in green Bay has major issues, Buddy,
40:33
Speaker 1: major issues. And the supporting Niners team still has a
40:36
Speaker 1: great front. And we've seen it with the old line
40:39
Speaker 1: of green Bay. Their old lines banged up so too
40:42
Speaker 1: many too many times, people instead of looking at the
40:45
Speaker 1: interior line and different things like that, they just go
40:47
Speaker 1: right to, Oh they have Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams playing
40:50
Speaker 1: against a really banged up secondary. Just take green Blay
40:53
Speaker 1: plus three plus three and a half. You're gonna cover this.
40:55
Speaker 1: Every time. It's literally giving me deja vu. I remember
40:57
Speaker 1: the same exack situation. I think it was two years ago.
41:00
Speaker 1: Green Bay went to the fourty Niners. I think they
41:02
Speaker 1: lost by thirty. So it's it's just a numbers game
41:06
Speaker 1: where it's a primetime game. I know everyone in the
41:08
Speaker 1: world's gonna have a money line, parlay or whatever tied
41:11
Speaker 1: to Green Bay on the money line, get a good
41:13
Speaker 1: plus number. I have to fade them at this number.
41:15
Speaker 1: It's just gonna be too much public on a public
41:17
Speaker 1: dog for me to pack them where. I just like
41:19
Speaker 1: the number of the four Niners. I want you to
41:22
Speaker 1: promise that the Niners will be part of your picks
41:26
Speaker 1: for convince me on Sunday because I know how much
41:29
Speaker 1: Raybon loves the Packers. Here. No, I did a primetime
41:34
Speaker 1: game last week. Wasn't that that was my gift to
41:36
Speaker 1: convince me? I did that? I love I want you
41:39
Speaker 1: and Raybon going after each other because because here's the
41:42
Speaker 1: other thing I'm putting. I'm putting the Packers on our list.
41:44
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a conversation about Diners or Packers the Niners. Um.
41:49
Speaker 1: But I love that you and Raybon are so opposed
41:53
Speaker 1: to each other on this pick. Um. I want to
41:56
Speaker 1: mention three other games. Okay, yeah, two other games. I'm
42:00
Speaker 1: sorry to other games. I'm sick to my stomach saying
42:04
Speaker 1: this out loud. Atlanta Falcons plus three against the Giants
42:09
Speaker 1: at home in New Jersey because you're owing two trends
42:14
Speaker 1: because the Giants are fucking terrible now they are. I
42:18
Speaker 1: told you I I liked I like the Atlanta three
42:20
Speaker 1: and a half. I thought that was the number. That's
42:22
Speaker 1: the only reason I'm off Atlanta. It's okay, this game
42:25
Speaker 1: is three. So I just think, you know, if you
42:28
Speaker 1: took Atlanta three and a half and they get blown out,
42:30
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be upset with myself because you've got the
42:32
Speaker 1: best of the number with Atlanta. But me personally, I'm
42:34
Speaker 1: I'll take I'll take the Giants when they get down
42:36
Speaker 1: to two and a half, all right, that's fair. I
42:39
Speaker 1: can be, I can be dissuaded. Otherwise, that's a good trend.
42:43
Speaker 1: Their own two against the spread and their own two
42:45
Speaker 1: straight up. So that's why I get why you like Atlanta, right.
42:48
Speaker 1: And also, Daniel Jones is terrible at home and he's
42:50
Speaker 1: good on the road, and so the game the line
42:52
Speaker 1: always gets inflated when he goes back home and plays
42:54
Speaker 1: well on the road, and so that's really it. I'm
42:57
Speaker 1: looking at it situationally. But you will never have to
42:59
Speaker 1: con into me to not bet on the Falcons last game,
43:03
Speaker 1: because because he's one of the things fans. I can't.
43:07
Speaker 1: I can't do it to him again. No, now you
43:09
Speaker 1: actually made me. You actually said to me last week
43:12
Speaker 1: if the Falcons don't cover his twelve and a half
43:14
Speaker 1: point dogs, we will never have to bet the Falcons again.
43:17
Speaker 1: That's true because I just felt terrible making people do
43:19
Speaker 1: because I felt that confident in the Atlanta plus twelve
43:21
Speaker 1: and a half. And look how what that got me?
43:23
Speaker 1: What if I threw out at you the Eagles h plus?
43:29
Speaker 1: What are they plus three and a half right now?
43:32
Speaker 1: Four plus four against the Cowboys? I love the Eagles
43:37
Speaker 1: in that spot. And I know we don't like to
43:38
Speaker 1: do Monday in a football games, but I will tell
43:40
Speaker 1: you this. According to the Action Network pro projections, the
43:44
Speaker 1: biggest edges between our projections and the spread this week
43:49
Speaker 1: are the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Packers. I can
43:52
Speaker 1: beat with you on the Niners over the Packers and
43:55
Speaker 1: avoiding the Giants and the Falcons. But I still love
43:59
Speaker 1: this Eagles team. Yeah, we love the summer. That again.
44:01
Speaker 1: We talked about the four ye nineers. They they kind
44:03
Speaker 1: of stolen last week, where every little thing that could
44:05
Speaker 1: have gone wrong for the egos pretty much did. And
44:07
Speaker 1: that's typical in the NFL. It just does not bounce
44:11
Speaker 1: your way every time. And we talked about this line
44:13
Speaker 1: is inflated. It's all up to four. Dallas should have
44:16
Speaker 1: lost last week to the Chargers kind of they kind
44:18
Speaker 1: of stole one there. Now we've an Eagles team that
44:21
Speaker 1: really let down better. So I mean, if you had
44:23
Speaker 1: the three and a half ticket year, sick to your
44:24
Speaker 1: stomach when all those times they didn't score in the
44:27
Speaker 1: red zone. So everything you just said it so true. Chat.
44:30
Speaker 1: We we take the value in this job and home,
44:33
Speaker 1: I mean a road divisional team in the Egos plus
44:35
Speaker 1: four where they played better in Dallas statistically they have
44:38
Speaker 1: more wins and Dallas they do at home against the Cowboys.
44:41
Speaker 1: We we take. We take the Egos plus four year.
44:43
Speaker 1: Every time I feel like a money line around Robin
44:47
Speaker 1: parlay of Chargers Dolphins, Chargers, Eagles, Dolphins Eagles. That could
44:56
Speaker 1: be fun. That's fun, and it's so gross, but that
44:59
Speaker 1: is on It's good, right, all right? But I know
45:02
Speaker 1: we want to I know that at some point we're
45:04
Speaker 1: gonna want to get to survivor and we're gonna do
45:05
Speaker 1: that in a second. We like the Chargers a lot.
45:08
Speaker 1: We like Miami a lot. I feel like we just
45:10
Speaker 1: decided to throw the Eagles in there too. Now. We talked,
45:13
Speaker 1: we talked, we said, we talked that we liked them.
45:15
Speaker 1: On Tuesday. We just said we don't do Monday games.
45:17
Speaker 1: But I think we have to suspend that rule. We
45:18
Speaker 1: have to get out of our comfort zone right now,
45:21
Speaker 1: our favorite five. We're only four and six and we've
45:23
Speaker 1: got some bad beats in there. I think we need
45:25
Speaker 1: to have as many games as possible to choose from.
45:28
Speaker 1: If we like this number, we gotta go for it.
45:30
Speaker 1: And if it means I have to stay up a
45:31
Speaker 1: little bit later on Monday night, I'll just deal, all right,
45:34
Speaker 1: my man. So, Chargers, Miami and Eagles, Oh my god,
45:38
Speaker 1: we're walking down a very ugly road. I love that
45:41
Speaker 1: those are three road teams. That's so unlike us. We
45:43
Speaker 1: usually always take home teams three road dogs. Right now,
45:47
Speaker 1: even though every fiber of my being says the Packers,
45:50
Speaker 1: I think the Niners are coming into pole position here.
45:53
Speaker 1: So it's really going to come down to the Niners,
45:56
Speaker 1: Rams and Vikings unless the Bengals go back to three
45:59
Speaker 1: and a half. So we will update everybody Sunday morning.
46:02
Speaker 1: Simon and I will decide what the final five are.
46:05
Speaker 1: We definitely like the Chargers plus six and a half,
46:07
Speaker 1: Miami plus about four or four and a half, the
46:10
Speaker 1: Eagles plus four, and then we will decide between the Rams, Vikings, Niners,
46:14
Speaker 1: and Bengals. On Sunday, Mondyline Parlay. For those listening, Chargers, Miami, Chargers, Eagles, Eagles, Miami,
46:25
Speaker 1: guess what it's time for. It's time for our Survivor pick,
46:28
Speaker 1: the Survivor Pool pick of the week. What do we say? Chat?
46:40
Speaker 1: Chat chat? What are we gonna do here? People keep
46:43
Speaker 1: hitting me up saying, how are you guys not taking Carolina?
46:46
Speaker 1: This is by far the easiest game they have left
46:48
Speaker 1: on their schedule, So I want to even like I know,
46:52
Speaker 1: we don't, we won't. Um. I wouldn't hate putting Caroline
46:55
Speaker 1: in our contest because the more film I watched on
46:58
Speaker 1: this Carolina team and the way they play the run defense.
47:01
Speaker 1: They literally shut down the Saints, who have a top
47:03
Speaker 1: three offensive line and they have Alvin Kramar that that's
47:06
Speaker 1: seriously one of the best run games in all football,
47:08
Speaker 1: and the Carolina completely shut it down last week. Now
47:10
Speaker 1: we have the same Carolina defense playing against Houston that
47:13
Speaker 1: that's their identity. They want to run the ball. Okay,
47:16
Speaker 1: that's how they set up all their plays through the
47:18
Speaker 1: pistol or whatever they're doing, they run it. This is
47:21
Speaker 1: a nightmare matchup for this Houston team just because they
47:23
Speaker 1: are playing at rookie quarterback against a team that wants
47:26
Speaker 1: to take away the run game, which is what they
47:28
Speaker 1: want to rely on. So I'm having nightmares because I'm like,
47:32
Speaker 1: in what world do we bet on Sam Donald on
47:34
Speaker 1: Thursday night as an eight point favorite? But if we
47:37
Speaker 1: can't bet on him on the spread chat, we might
47:39
Speaker 1: have taken the survivor. All we needed them is do
47:41
Speaker 1: is try to win, just win. It's hard because it's
47:44
Speaker 1: again we talked to me like Denver because they're playing
47:46
Speaker 1: against the Jets at home, which makes me feel way
47:48
Speaker 1: more comfortable. But we might be take Denver again later on,
47:51
Speaker 1: where I just don't see where we can take Carolina
47:53
Speaker 1: again again. We could wait and maybe save them for
47:56
Speaker 1: an Atlanta game, but we know that's when Matt Ryan's
47:59
Speaker 1: gonna screw us. So that's like one of these things
48:00
Speaker 1: where it's like I kind of just want to get
48:01
Speaker 1: Carolina out of the way while this team is still hot,
48:04
Speaker 1: still fine, so high, and if we get knocked out
48:07
Speaker 1: week three with Carolina on the road, so be it.
48:10
Speaker 1: It feels like it's the smart player this week. You're disgusting.
48:14
Speaker 1: Yesterday I had so much love for you. We spent
48:17
Speaker 1: so much time together. It was great to connect with you,
48:21
Speaker 1: fond with you, and remind me and you why we
48:25
Speaker 1: are brothers. And then you do something like this, which
48:29
Speaker 1: is so detestable. It's like I don't even know who
48:31
Speaker 1: you are. What if I told you Travis Reid loves
48:33
Speaker 1: it as well? I mean, alright good And again, if
48:36
Speaker 1: you want to see Travis Reid ranks all the best
48:38
Speaker 1: teams you take in the Survivor contest, I believe Carolina
48:42
Speaker 1: is his number one team. So it doesn't feel like
48:44
Speaker 1: I'm too crazy with this read. I am gonna make
48:47
Speaker 1: Colin when we do our podcast later, I'm gonna make
48:49
Speaker 1: him take the Broncos alright now, Smart they can take
48:53
Speaker 1: the Broncos because also because the Broncos feel waste a
48:56
Speaker 1: million times safer, honestly, but I just would love to
49:01
Speaker 1: just get Carolina out of the way, just like last year.
49:02
Speaker 1: We got rid of the Browns in week two, and
49:04
Speaker 1: I feel like a genius because we have to use
49:05
Speaker 1: them again the rest of the year. I feel the
49:07
Speaker 1: same way trying to get rid of the Carolina. Now
49:08
Speaker 1: you know what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna give him
49:10
Speaker 1: a choice. I like that. I'm gonna give them a choice.
49:13
Speaker 1: All right, let's recap for everybody. Our hornets nest walking
49:16
Speaker 1: into a hornets nest. We're looking at the Rams over
49:19
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Our money line parlays that we like. Correct
49:24
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, Chargers Eagles, Chargers Miami Miami Eagles,
49:28
Speaker 1: three for sure, Chargers Miami Eagles, and we will debate Rams, Vikings,
49:35
Speaker 1: Niners and Bengals plus three and Bengals plus three and
49:38
Speaker 1: a half. If he gets there, man, I'll say it again.
49:42
Speaker 1: I say it every week. Fucking level. We are. What's
49:45
Speaker 1: not to love, Simon. This has been a great podcast.
49:49
Speaker 1: Seeing you for this long, over twenty four hours is amazing.
49:53
Speaker 1: I still don't hate me, Love you forever, brother. This
49:57
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. I
50:01
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is
50:03
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever
50:07
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Rate review subscribe until Tuesday. Love you,