Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Germany Continues Crashing Bitcoin🚨 MASSIVE $BTC Dump

Transcript

Germany Continues Crashing Bitcoin🚨 MASSIVE $BTC Dump · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

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Get this right second time. We have a little bit of a technical difficulty,
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but hey, we're back in today. We're going to be breaking down
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Germany their position in bitcoin. Things are starting to heat up today with the
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most bitcoin they've disposed of. How the market might react, what this may
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mean in terms of some other tokens. We will take a look at some
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charts today, so we'll get into all that for you. It's gonna be
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a good one. My name is Paul Barrow. Welcome back into tech path.
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All right, a couple of points I want to get to first is
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to start kind of your crypto journey. A couple of points I want to
0:57
get in on right here. We'll go to the COBEC letter. Key events
1:00
this week chairpalal of course testifying Tuesday. Will also see the OPEC monthly report,
1:06
which is the oil report coming out on Wednesday, June. CPI inflation
1:10
data this is Thursday. I think this is the big day of the week
1:12
to see how CPI continues to hold inflation likelihood as it could be softer.
1:19
Hopefully that is the case. If we still see the continued downturn, many
1:23
people will start to ask that question, is it time for the potential pivot
1:27
of chair Pal. So a lot to look at. Of course, jobs
1:30
have been on the forefront after a soft report, so big deal. Nine
1:37
fat speaker events this week as well. This is the hearing that Chairpal is
1:44
going to be at. It's Federal Reserve semi annual Monetary Policy Report that's going
1:49
to be happening on Wednesdays. So that's the point where we're going to get
1:52
a chance to see Chair paler in front of Congress going in. I want
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to go to this first clip because this is going to kind of set the
1:57
tone for what's happening in the markets. Right now. And this is Morgan
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Stanley talking about where the market position is currently, how they're playing it.
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Take a look, yeah, look, we're in this period where bad is
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good for multiples. Right, So slower growth, as long as it's not
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a recession, brings down inflation expectations, which allows the FED to cut and
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that's what the market has been anticipating now for almost a year now. They've
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been wrong about the number of cuts. But the conclusion the equity market is
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making right now is that, well, there's not going to be a hike,
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and we know the direction of travel is down. That's fine, so
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long as that negative growth surprise doesn't turned into a hard landing. And right
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now that's not the case. Now the labor market is showing signs of weakness,
2:37
but not to the degree that would freak out equity markets. And so
2:39
what's going on is the markets are very efficient right now. They're basically putting
2:44
money to work in high quality growth stocks. They're paying up for anything that
2:47
has growth because that's what the market needs. Growth is scarce, so people
2:53
are saying, well that market share broad now, it's not going to broaden
2:55
out that this continues. But it also doesn't mean that we're going to collapse
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until there's either evidence that we're going to be hard landing or there's evidence that
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we're going to reaccelerate. And then if FED can't cut and rates go higher,
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so we're stuck. We're stuck in this sort of environment that really a
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lot of active managers don't like because it's narrow, it's hard to pick stocks
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again, and it's hard to perform. Yeah, this is getting into a
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time where this is where your asset managers kind of earn their position. This
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is where it gets a lot harder, not necessarily just picking the S and
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P five hundred, but I do think we are going to see some pressures
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from a macro side of things. And remember we still have not only the
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summer months to deal with a lot of political framework. But what's happening right
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now within the bitcoin market probably the lead story it still is Germany. The
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German government now shifting an additional three K and bitcoin in the last hour.
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This ended up being a pretty heavy accelerant. I'll show this to you on
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Arkham in a second. But one of the things that people are kind of
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urging the governments to stop its hasty disposal of the bitcoin. The bitcoin.
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They're also looking at her statement around government the German government on July fourth,
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stating that the retaining bitcoin could aid the country and diversifighting the treasury assets,
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even though that doesn't appear to be the case right now. At the time
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wallet in question held over forty two thousand, two point four billion. I
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think the number right now is down to a one point four billion holding in
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bitcoin right now. If you jump over to is it Arkham, Yeah,
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here we are Arkham. You kind of see where the current wallet is.
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I didn't refresh this yet, so it's around one point four billion coming in.
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I'll zoom in on this. I want to show you some of the
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disposal of what they've done in a fairly short period of time. Here this
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is just over the past a little bit. As you can see, forty
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eight minutes ago, another fifty one fifty, two hundred, five hundred,
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six hundred, eight hundred, or three eighty six point fifty, all of
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this happening within the last hour. Then there's your five hours ago, and
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of course all this is coming across as you'll know, notice a variety of
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exchanges. There's crack and coin based bitstamp BKAA, so a lot definitely in
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play right now, What does this mean for bitcoin? Continuing to see downward
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sentiment on bitcoin and I think this is a problem that we're probably going to
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look at for the next little bit. Anyway, Still bitcoin holding a market
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cap of above a trillion, I know this isn't a lot in terms of
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what's interesting about this is the fact that they're having to jump around on exchanges,
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which is really the situation of just supply and supply could be a factor
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as we play into a lot of things. Remember a lot of people not
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putting tokens on exchanges these days, and when you look at supply and demand
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being able to go out there, and of course what we're seeing within the
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activity within the German government kind of showcases a little bit of market openness here
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for sure. Other things I want to hit on right here, this of
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course, was the accumulate by watcher guru is saying that seventeen thousand bitcoin have
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been disposed in the largest single day, worth nine or fifty one million.
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Lots of numbers there, and we'll do a poll I want to kind of
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get your opinion on this. But bitcoins still dropping German government sales off there
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bitcoin holdings. I'll show you what the chart looks like. Matter of fact,
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let's just show me over the chart right now. We'll take a quick
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look on bitcoin right now, and we are in let you zoom out on
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this one a little bit, still holding that fifty six to three range if
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you go to the hourly. This probably changed things up slightly somewhat flat actually
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after this a little bit of dip right here off of that fifty seven to
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eight number, which is where we've kind of come down to around fifty five
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seven or so, starting to climb back out here in the short range right
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now, you know, we could see this come in a little bit stronger
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on pushing bitcoin down to that fifty two level, which is the level we've
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been looking at for a while, as it potentially it could reach a couple
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other points when you get to a couple other tweets, this one right here
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coming in talking about Germany still dumping bitcoin transaction transaction tokens were transferred back to
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the German government wallet on Friday, which we thought were buying, but instead
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it didn't come from them buying new cores. They were just not sold.
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So Unfortunately they're still selling bitcoin. As you can see that I think is
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going to continue for a while. It does not look like Germany is going
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to position positively, you know, overall. Just to give you an example,
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right here on the current position of largest government holdings right there, China
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number two, while still the US number one, UK holding about almost four
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billion, and then of course Germany right there was at three point two.
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But El Salvador opening things up. Let's go to a couple of clips.
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This next clip will get into a little bit more detail on things happening around
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whether or not these levels are going to hold. Where we are right now
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around that fifty six K mark. Let's take a look. I mean,
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there are times when Bitcoin can can actually be an indicator of what to expect
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in the NASDAC or just still trade correlations have been pretty high too recently with
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the NAZAK one hundred and bitcoin, and then you start to think about them
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all as these risk assets right more broadly, but of course the NASAC just
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keeps going and going and going, and Bitcoin has broken some support. You
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think fifty one doesn't hold, you think the forties, I mean, well,
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that would suggest there's something structural sort of a miss for bitcoin. From
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a technical perspective, it would jeopardize that long term up trend to some degree.
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We would expect that we see over sold conditions return close to that level.
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Though. Interesting point here is this coming in from CBC that they opened
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with bitcoin today. So a lot of concern I think in Wall Street in
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general about the retracement. Remember, we have some strong inflow still going into
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these ETFs and that has been leading up to this, So there's some people
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in negative positions. I think that's a factor that plays into this. Any
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Bear from a Coin Desk talked a little bit more about this cycle. He
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goes in a little more detail as well. Take a look. So twenty
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twenty four has been a sort of a two act play. The first quarter
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was really a strong up trend. We unlock so much demand with bitcoin spot
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ETFs. No one wanted to get in front of that rally. The demand
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worked, the market structure work, the ets work flawlessly. In Q two,
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that rally just fizzled. We've kind of been wandering since then. But
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now it's all about the supply for mount dox and from the governments that have
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seized bitcoin all well, that lasts. Well, the best news is finite,
9:50
right. A lot of this is clean up from ten year old problems,
9:52
and we spent a lot of twenty twenty three cleaning up a lot of
9:56
the dirty dishes from twenty twenty two that was successful. Well, So the
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best news is there's not enough of positive flows to really overcome the supply that
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the market seees over the next couple of months, but it's finite, and
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once it's done, then we're free to go up from there, well,
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free to go up the key. There is going to be demand. And
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if you even look at other markets ethereum there were some sales of almost thirty
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thousand ethereum in thirty seven days. A little bit here this is Golump project.
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You can kind of see a little bit around where they were. This
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move also in line with bitcoin selling by Germany. So I think there's some
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scenarios where bitcoin and ETH still continue to kind of move in unison if you
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look at that chart in terms of ETH, and I think this is one
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to watch because eth has the potential here, especially with the etf of really
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taking a very positive spin into the market, even though we may not see
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a recovery or a significant recovery from bitcoin immediately during that cycle. It's very
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possible to THEEUM could be the winner here. Overall, another s one came
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rolling in from van k They've already had their had their fees, so nothing
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to see here. That's still a positive note going forward. I think I
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also saw somewhere that we saw on ETHTF coming in for my shares as well.
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So lots of stuff happening spot ETFs one amendments supposedly due tomorrow. How
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quickly will the SEC turn around these particular documents? Again, this is very
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critical right now. I think in terms of the timing, Garassi is still
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looking at a couple of weeks. This would put it back out into that
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mid to late July, which has been actually the more I believe conservative position
11:45
and one that many people have not necessarily been looking at me. And if
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you look at how Bloomberg has analyzed this, everybody was looking at that July
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early July and even to this week most likely not going to happen. I
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think we're still looking at a few weeks out before we see uh the e
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ETF. If we get a surprise though, if there is a surprise around
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the eth etf Uh. That could shift the market in a very very big
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way, So be on the lookout for some of that. Don't forget.
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Uh, yeah, I know, I'm trying to. I'm trying to recover,
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guys. I see your notes, Thank you, but I'm trying to
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recover. It's gonna be. It's gonna get better, I promise. Uh.
12:20
One thing to be thinking about right now is if you're if you have
12:24
not hit the like button, make sure and do that. Look, I'm
12:28
really you know, busting it here for you guys. And uh, and
12:31
there's a reason these markets right now are very sensitive. Volatility is possibly at
12:37
its highest that we've seen in the last year. So these next few weeks
12:41
are going to be very critical. If you've not been tuned into crypto YouTube
12:46
lately, now's the time to do it. So make sure and hit subscribe,
12:50
hit the like button on a couple of videos we'll get in your feed
12:52
and go from there. Other tweets I want to hit on right here,
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matrix Port coming in. Uh. This is their basically Remember they've been also
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analyzing this before, they've done this before, but they're saying likely approval this
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week. That's the big push from matrix port. They've been on and off.
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They also made some calls on the Bitcoin ETFs not necessarily accurate on those.
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A couple others that I want to look at. Eth now completely retraced
13:24
the ETF news, so just like Bitcoin did after the news drop, then
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Bitcoin proceeded a rally. Remember when that came up from thirty eight to seventy
13:31
two. You know, take a look now, we'll I know these are
13:35
two separate assets, two completely different ecosystems, and in many cases, two
13:39
different kinds of investors, because I think when you look at where innovation is
13:45
set forth, it is a much more aggressive investor and that's where I think
13:48
the ETH clan falls in there. For sure. Other things right here,
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crypto market struggles, course black rocks, Biddle fund now operating on Ethereum,
13:58
continues to attract new investors, and we're seeing some pretty big numbers on this.
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If you look at the RWA data, they've been up around half a
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bill on here. Yeah, look at that total max supply right now of
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Biddle still continuing to grow. So this is very strong. We've had Biddle
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and I shouldn't say Securitize on the show before, which really gets into I
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think the future of where you know token is securities are going to be going.
14:24
But more importantly, I think it's the vision of what Wall Street means
14:30
for sure. So lots of stuff there. You can kind of see the
14:31
market right there flowing pretty heavily. And of course there's the breakdown right there
14:37
with black Rock Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund right there on ethereum four to nine mil
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for nine to one mil. Not bad, don't forget. Put some questions
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in over on the in the chat down below or on the side, whichever
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you know, visual you get going for you, we'll try to get some
14:54
of those questions. We will go into the charts as well. The other
14:58
thing to be on the lookout or is this roundtable that is happening right now.
15:01
Remember this is Mark Cuban and Rocana, which I think is this might
15:07
be a good match. Even though I would say Cuban is you know,
15:13
a little bit more of a deeper democrat, but the point is he is
15:15
a pro crypto business person and I think in the sense you need someone like
15:20
that, not an analyst or a crypto I won't say crypto bro, but
15:24
you know a guy that who is more all in on crypto versus someone who
15:28
looks at crypto as an innovation, and I think that's where Cuban plays in
15:33
on this. So this could be good. It also could be good for
15:35
Biden if he does continue to stay in the race. That could reposition some
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crypto voters if Biden comes in with some positivity positivity there. So it's scheduled
15:46
to include notable figures as you guys have seen. Garling House will be there,
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Scara Mocci will be there. I'm kind of zoom in on this for
15:52
you guys. Scary Mochi will be there. Rocanna's you know, initiative scores.
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The efsee to bolster the ties between the Democratic Party and the crypto industry.
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This might be a good play for President Biden, especially with him being
16:08
so adam out about staying in the race. Key executives from Coinbase is going
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to be there. That'd be good if if Brian is there, Kracking and
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also prominent Democratic officials. So we'll see who all shows up and what this
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might look like. Because I think the key here will be how the White
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House responds to all of this. So some big stuff out there for sure.
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Joe Biden says the morning. This morning, I sent letters to my
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fellow Democrats. I'm in it and I'm not moving. It's time for us
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to come together and move forward, unifying party and defeat Donald Trump. That
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is his position. It looks as though it seems to be holding a little
16:45
bit more because we're starting to see it less and less of a position and
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percentage. If you look at polymarkets, it's fallen down below fifty percent,
16:56
So that might be strong for the Dems. Eleanor hint on this right here,
17:00
which is not strong for Joe Biden, and that is adding a possible
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House vote to overturn the SB one twenty one. There's going to need to
17:10
be a two thirds majority on this. Some people say probably not possible,
17:15
but we look at it and say, this might actually be attainable. And
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if that happens, it will show the support I think in both the Senate
17:23
and the House that maybe the administration will finally take note on, and this
17:30
roundtable might be a segue into a reposition. Remember Trump did a flip on
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crypto. Could Biden be in that camp as well? Don't put it outside
17:40
of that because that will win some votes in a big way and if he
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goes all in on it, it could be a big deal for sure.
17:48
And just to give an example, here's Trump right here sparking a bitcoin rally.
17:52
Could in the second half of the year if he's elected. Remember he
17:56
has repositioned on coin for sure, and I think this has probably been one
18:03
of the biggest pivots by a legis well, you know anybody in the crypto
18:08
I should say, in the political eye, especially someone at this status.
18:12
So a pretty big deal I think for Trump taking on. So he's more
18:17
pro crypto Canada than his policies, such as bitcoin more appealing to the wider
18:22
world. He also accepts cryptocurrencies remember Eth even Sheba. But remember he also
18:27
has NFTs out there, so there's a lot already in his understanding. I
18:33
don't know that he himself, but I think his team understands the impact it
18:37
means to the campaign, and that in itself is a pretty big statement.
18:42
Last on this article is right here. If Trump is elected, it's certainly
18:45
possible bitcoin will experience temporary boost of value that coming in November, and we
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could see a pretty good pump in the entire market into twenty twenty five because
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we'll most likely see a lot of that pent up demand that people have been
19:00
waiting on, which has been a little bit of regulatory a little bit off
19:03
pressure from the SEC, some openness for innovation. Those kind of things would
19:08
all make it clear, don't forget. Yes, we're going to try to
19:12
get to some questions here on the on the show, and we'll take a
19:18
look at the chart too. A couple of things happening here. I want
19:21
to go over to the to the Solana chart. Ready knows, I got
19:25
to take a look at Solana. One thing that if you're not in on
19:29
right now, We've got a new indicator here that gets into a lot more
19:33
of our tool set around our market sentim an index or indicator now and Solana
19:40
did a little bit of a positive and a negative move on our indicators,
19:45
which shows a little bit of uptrend right now on Solona holding it around one
19:48
thirty seven currently, but off of that low of around one twenty one.
19:52
So that crossover was kind of interesting on Solana. Avalanche almost did the same
19:56
thing. And it'll paint here in a second. Yeah, Avalanche almost in
20:00
the same thing, even though I feel like we're probably a little bit more
20:03
negative sentiment pushing down on avalanche right now. Bitcoin, of course, has
20:07
had some negative sentiment for quite some time, so it's continuing to trend down.
20:12
We'll see if it holds here or if it stabilizes. That's a key
20:17
point. I think if we start to drop under that fifty five k again,
20:19
it could revisit a fairly significant negative sentiment position overall. If you are
20:27
not part of the MSI, you can actually get these indicators. Now.
20:30
We're starting to roll these out to where you get this indicator on trading view
20:34
for all tokens. It's going to be for anything out there, so check
20:38
it out if you're not in our diamond circle mixture and click our link down
20:41
below. We'll try to get to some questions. I see a bunch of
20:45
them coming in, and let's go to the poll real quick. See what
20:48
we have there? All right, here we go. What happens first fifty
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two k? So everybody's still pushing an eth not so much. Only fourteen
20:57
percent so overwhelmingly bearish on bitcoin today. Huh interesting? All right, Well,
21:04
let's take some questions. We've got Tom Crown in the in the chat,
21:10
he's asking I'm I gonna make it to Nashville. I'm gonna try to
21:15
you know me, guys, I hate traveling, but if I go somewhere,
21:18
Bitcoin conference would be a good place to go. Might be good to
21:22
catch up with some of you guys and do a couple of interviews. Anyway,
21:26
wrong answer in a poll? Okay, boycott Germany. A lot of
21:30
people really upset about this. Republican National Committee approves a draft of party platform
21:34
to defend the right to mine and self customing bitcoin. Fox Molder says,
21:41
Maga all the way, all right, bitcoin, we'll recover to the moon
21:44
from August onward. I like that date range right there. Actually, I
21:48
do like that one because of what we can see on the macro front,
21:52
because I feel like bitcoin is more tied to inflation overall economic because you need
21:57
new investors coming in, but you also need faith in the market, and
22:02
that is something that I think August forward could be a very critical critical time
22:07
forward. Is it time to accumulate alts? Listen, there's some good buys
22:11
out there right now. I don't know. Everything's up a little bit in
22:14
the market right now. Let's take a look at what might be. Look
22:17
at Celestia, Jesus, I think it just absolutely exploded here. Let's take
22:22
a look at Render still continuing. The down trend doesn't look like it's going
22:30
to recover there anytime soon. And if I look at anything else we had
22:34
the Crypto Pit did do a little purchase on Sandbox the other day. I
22:37
noticed that what else was out there, flow holding looks like we might hit
22:44
the bottom mone flow a couple other tokens for sure. As Audious, we
22:48
should probably take a look at that one. Let's take a look at Audius
22:53
that's up here in the MSI. There's a few things with Audius that I
22:57
do like. I've been in and out out of Audius and the thing obviously
23:03
being a salonic token. But the one thing that Audius has been I think
23:07
pressured with is the fact that this has really kind of come off some pretty
23:11
big buying zones. This may be a good position on audios right now.
23:15
I mean, this thing is way below current market. That's if you believe
23:19
in what they're doing. I know we've talked about them for quite a while.
23:22
They're one of those tokens that could fly at any moment. All they
23:26
need is a break. And it's like a lot of things, you know,
23:29
same thing with helium. You look at helium mobile. All of those
23:33
are kind of same things, so there's any kind of major note. The
23:37
other one I would look at is Hydera. Huntera is one that always gets
23:41
a major push anytime we start to see any kind of news coming out of
23:44
those. Cycle is getting real too, because summer months they start working toward
23:48
those releases of that kind of stuff. What else do we have here?
23:52
I used to think soul is the best crypto until I got introduced to ATA.
23:56
I have now sold all my soul for Ada. That's Adam. That's
24:03
Adam has done that. He sold all his soul for Ada. Wow.
24:07
I don't know want to say anything about that. Okay, let's go further
24:11
into this. We've got what do we got? Leonell says, just tune
24:15
in for the first. First thing I hear is going to get better.
24:18
I promise Lella. I do like the market in the sense that right now
24:25
there is enough pressure from both the macro side, the political side, the
24:29
global economic side that you don't know, I mean you would you would need
24:33
a major event to see a I think a further downturn if we get under
24:40
fifty K that I would agree back to the CNBC analysts, is there's something
24:45
you know, fundamentally wrong with bitcoin if we see an under fifty so definitely,
24:49
for sure? What else do we have here? I had a number
24:52
of government German government will buy back a lot of bitpoint because there there's a
24:57
group of crypto investors. Are they're upset about this? Well, I know
25:03
crypto Stevo, that might be a reality, But this is a government man,
25:07
they don't do much for the people, So I think that that one's
25:11
going to stick around. I think for a while it's gonna hurt, but
25:15
there is a finite number there, so at least we know that asset house.
25:18
Why don't they sell seventy k dump it back down the fifty six?
25:22
Yeah? What would happen if government of Germany sold all the spitcoin and put
25:27
that money into XRP. I don't think that's necessarily going to be the case.
25:32
Now, they may work with x RP for sure and ripple in general,
25:36
because that's that's something for sure. But remember that Germany has been in
25:41
and out of these kind of these economic fronts for quite some time. We
25:45
also have situations brewing in France that you know, has split the political party
25:49
there. I don't think we're going to see a lot of legislation now starting
25:53
to move in some of these countries which have led the EU, even though
25:57
with Mika this may be an opening for the US. So there's some things
26:02
that could be happening for sure. Last up, we'll leave on ETH.
26:07
I want to actually look at the eight bitcoin chart because this was very positive
26:11
and just here recently has started to go a little bit more soft on Ethereum.
26:15
Now that may mean that we could see ethereum slightly on the downturn.
26:22
So we are looking for an entry on ETH, especially going into this potential
26:29
ETF So we'll try to get to any of those. All right, guess
26:33
if you're not in the diamond circle, get in now. It's very easy
26:36
and it's super simple because it's free, and you get into the new community.
26:40
We've got a lot of new stuff happening over there. The air drops
26:41
start over there as well. All of that's happening. Follow me on x
26:45
at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on tech Bath